Niger Food Security Update: July 31, 2001 Summary As of the second dekad (10-day period) of July, the 2001/02 agricultural season is fully underway in most parts of the country. Moderate to heavy rains fell across much of Niger during the second dekad. Some rainfall stations in the regions of Maradi, Dosso, and Tillabery registered more than 100 mm during the dekad. Starting from third dekad of April, cumulative rainfall as of the second dekad of July was below last year’s levels at the same time in about half of the reporting stations. However, cumulative rainfall was above the long-term average (1961-1990) in most stations. Most rainfall stations registering the biggest deficits are located in the northern part of the country in Agadez and Diffa Regions as well as Niamey City. The government’s Agricultural Statistics Service (SSA) reported that as of the second dekad of July, approximately 9,487 of the 10,070 (94 percent) agricultural villages in Niger had planted compared with 9,581 villages (95 percent) in 2000 at the same time. For the remaining villages, largely spread along the northern limits of the cropping zone, it is almost too late in the season to plant crops that will reach full maturity. These villages can expect production shortfalls. FEWS/NET joined the USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) team in a field verification mission in mid-July to assess the progress of the agricultural season and the food security situation in Tillabéry Region. The quality of the 2001/02 agricultural season in Ouallam and Filingué Departments varies from one zone to another with some very important differences in planting dates and crop development. Cereals are readily available in the markets, but prices are high. The subsidized sales continue in both departments. As on-farm food reserves have all but run out, households have limited strategies for coping until the harvest in October. Weekly price information from the National Cereals Market Information System (SIMC) as of July 18 indicates that wholesale millet prices increased between June and July in most of the 11 markets for which data are available. Donors, the government, and Nigeriens in country and abroad continue to respond to the government’s call for 60,000 MT of emergency food assistance. According to the Food Crisis Unit (CCA), a total of 34,309 MT of food assistance was received as of July 24 compared with 31,944 MT as of June 25. Of this, 30, 975 MT have been sold at subsidized prices. Additional food aid pledges reached 25,000 MT. In addition, private companies and individuals have donated more than 16,500,000 CFA francs (about $22,150). 1. Food Availability 1.1. Official Cereal Stocks As of July 28, Niger’s National Security Stock (SNS) held approximately 3,909 MT of millet (compared with its target level of 40,000 MT), the same as last month. The World Food Program (WFP) held 6,266 MT of cereals and other foods. The rice parastatal, Riz du Niger (RINI), held approximately 823 MT of various types of rice. 1.2. The 2001/02 Agricultural Season 1.2.1. Rainfall Moderate to heavy rains fell across much of Niger during the second dekad of July. Some rainfall stations in the regions of Maradi, Dosso, and Tillabery registered more than 100 mm. Starting from third dekad of April, cumulative rainfall as of the second dekad of July was below last year’s levels at the same time in about half of the stations. However, cumulative rainfall was above the long-term average (1961-1990) in most stations. Most deficit rainfall stations are located in the northern part of the country in Agadez and Diffa Regions as well as in Niamey City. 1.2.2. Agricultural Conditions The government’s Agricultural Statistics Service (SSA) reported that as of the second dekad of July, approximately 9,487 of the 10,070 (94 percent) agricultural villages in Niger had planted compared with 9,581 villages (95 percent) at the same time last year ? about the same rate. Approximately 663 villages (6 percent) in Diffa Region (Maine Soroa and N’ Guigmi), Maradi (Dakoro), Tahoua (Tahoua), Tillabery (Ouallam, Tera and Tillabery City) and Zinder (Goure, Mirrriah and Tanout) have not yet planted. It is almost too late in the season to plant crops that will reach full maturity, given the minimum number of growing days and length of daylight requirements of these non-hybrid crops. Thus, these villages will have a production shortfall even if the rains continue until the end of September. As of the end of the second dekad of July, overall crop development varies from one zone to another due to dry spells, which necessitated replanting in some areas. Most millet is at the emergence stage and the most advanced millet is at the flowering stage in the Madarounfa Department (Maradi Region). Most sorghum is at the emergence stage and the most advanced sorghum is at head formation stage in Abalak and Madaoua Departments (Tahoua Region) and Matameye (Zinder Region). Most cowpeas are at the emergence stage and the most advanced cowpeas are reaching maturity in Matameye Department (Zinder Region). 2 The OFDA Mission: Observations and Impressions from Departments of Filingué and Ouallam Departments FEWS/NET joined the USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) team in a field verification mission in mid-July, along with representatives from the American Embassy in Niamey. The objective of the mission was to assess the evolution of the agricultural season and the food security situation in Tillabéry Region. The team visited the seats (chef-lieux) of Ouallam and Filingue Departments, the administrative posts at Balleyara (Filingué), and the villages of Firguine (Filingué), Taroum, and Solle Tanka (Ouallam). The mission conducted separate group interviews with male and female heads of households and received briefings by the chiefs of the Departmental Agricultural Services (DAA) and the Early Warning System (SAP), Sub-regional Unit. Farmers and administrative and technical staff provided anecdotal and quantitative information about rainfall, planting dates, dry spells, pest attacks, current food security, and the nutritional situation. The quality of the 2001/02 agricultural season in Ouallam and Filingué Departments varies from one zone to another, with some very important differences in planting dates and crop development. According to the chiefs of the Departmental Agricultural Statistics Service (DSSA), rainfall was abundant but not well distributed in time and space. Even though 100 percent of the villages in Filingué and 98 percent in Ouallam had planted as of July 18, the SAA identified 40 villages (30 in Filingue and 10 in Ouallam) that are expected to have a production shortfall due to late planting and replanting. According to the DSSA, should the rains stop in mid-September, production would be nil since most crops would only be at the height-growth (montaison) stage. But should the rains continue until the end of September, production would be average since most crops would be between the budding and head formation stages. The DAA has already put a mechanism in place to monitor these villages throughout the season. According to the group interviews, households have limited strategies for coping until the next harvest in October. The most important strategies that contribute significantly to food security are gathering and consuming of wild leaves, selling animals, working for wages on neighboring farms, and receiving remittances from family members elsewhere in Niger and abroad. Cereal prices are very high compared with those in previous years, but the markets are well supplied. Almost all the millets come from Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and some from Niger. Maize and sorghum come from Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. With regard to food aid, subsidized sale of millet was in progress in Balleyara, Firguine (Filingué), and Ouallam and Taroum (Ouallam). Some villagers have been able to buy some of this subsidized millet, whose price is about 75 percent of the going market prices. Villagers sell animals and use their other income from farm laboring and remittances to purchase this millet. 2. Food Accessibility: Millet Prices Weekly price information from the National Cereals Market Information System (SIMC) as of July 18 indicates that July wholesale millet prices were essentially stable, changing within ± 5 percent of June prices in 6 of the 11 markets for which data are available for comparison. Prices increased by 6-10 percent in 4 markets and by 12 percent in the Zinder market. Figure 1 shows recent millet price trends in selected markets between March and July. 3 Figure 1. Wholesale Millet Price Trends in Selected Markets in Niger: March - July 2001 250 March April May June July 200 150 100 CFA Francs per kg 50 0 Diffa Dosso Maradi Tillabery Zinder FEWS NET/Niger Source: SIMC Compared with millet prices in July last year, millet prices this year are significantly higher in all 11 markets. Price increases ranged from 50 percent in Dosso (Dosso Department) to 86 percent in Tessaoua (Maradi Department). July 2001 millet prices exceed the five-year (1996-2000) average prices by 25-30 percent in six markets and by 31-50 percent in the other markets. To give additional perspective, however, July 2001 prices fall lower or considerably lower than prices in July 1998, the highest price period within the average following the poor 1997 harvest. The sole exception is Niamey (Katako), where the July 2001 millet price increased nearly 3 percent above the July 1998 price. 3. Contingency and Response Planning Distribution of food aid is continuing. Since January, local authorities and NGOs have distributed 3,333 MT of cereals; the number of beneficiaries is unavailable.