Urban Resilience Systems Analysis

Empowered lives. GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE Resilient nations.

Zimbabwe

Contents Summary ...... 9 Introduction ...... 14 Background ...... 14 Purpose and scope of the Urban Resilience Systems Assessment (URSA) ...... 16 Definition of urban resilience in Zimbabwe ...... 17 Methodology ...... 23 Plan of the Report ...... 29 Urban circumstances in Zimbabwe ...... 30 Overall political, economic and demographic context ...... 30 Geography, Climate and Environment ...... 33 Defining urban systems in Zimbabwe ...... 44 3. Shocks and Stressors profile in Cities of Zimbabwe ...... 69 Definition of ‘disturbance’ in the context of Zimbabwe ...... 69 Shocks Profile ...... 69 Stressors profile ...... 77 Climate change projections ...... 81 Relevance of listed shocks and stressors for the urban systems of Zimbabwe for urban resilience91 4. Evaluating Urban Resilience in Zimbabwe ...... 92 Dimension 1: Health and Basic Needs ...... 93 Dimension 2: Economy, Society and Livelihoods ...... 140 Dimension 3: Infrastructure, Planning and Ecosystems ...... 166 Dimension 4 - Governance and Citizen Participation ...... 191 Interdependency Analysis ...... 215 5. Detailed Findings ...... 225 Key findings ...... 225 6. Conclusions and way forward ...... 239 References ...... 245 Appendix 1: Meta data for systems analysis ...... 262 Appendix 2: Natural Hazards Overview ...... 289 Introduction ...... 289

List of Figures and Tables Figure 15: Global seismic hazard map. Peak ground acceleration (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period) . 72 Figure 16 Hazards in ZImbabwe according to Figure 1 Analytical framework for the URSA ..... 17 ThinkHazard! ...... 74 Figure 2 Urban councils consulted in local Figure 17: NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility workshops. The Harare workshop was also Map ...... 75 attended by Chitingwiza, Epworth and Ruwa Figure 18: Figure 3 Malaria Risk Map - Health (Source: Authors, 2019, with MapBox image) ... 24 Protection Scotland (Accessed 2019) ...... 78 Figure 3 System network analysis visualisation by Figure 19: Figure 4 Cholera Risk Map – World URSA (Source: Authors, 2019 ...... 27 Health Organisation (2008) ...... 79 Figure 4 Summary overview of research methods Figure 20 Frequency, mortality and economic used for the URSA (source: authors, 2019) ...... 28 impact data for Zimbabwe Source: EM-DATA, Figure 5 Summary Of Zimbabwean Economic And CRED EM-DAT (Feb. 2015) : www.emdat.be Development Indicators (1980 - 2018) (Source: Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - IMF, 2018) ...... 32 Belgium...... 84 Figure 6: FigBritish Geological Survey with data Figure 21: Shock and Stresses Profile 2019 and from WWF and FAO (Placeholder) ...... 33 2050. Source Authors (2019) ...... 91 Figure 7: Elevation map of Zimbabwe showing 32 Figure 22: Urban Resilience Framework for urban area. Source: Authors (2019) ...... 34 Zimbabwe ...... 92 Figure 8: Wetland map of Harare. Source: Figure 23 Percentage of properties in the urban Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe council with direct water supply (Source: SLB, (2012)...... 36 2015) ...... 100 Figure 9 Mineral of Zimbabwe and protected areas. Figure 24 Percentage of water supplied to Source: screenshot from Ecosystem conservation properties that passes quality benchmarks (Source: and restoration initiatives in Zimbabwe, Chip SLB, 2015) ...... 100 Chirara – Biodiversity Coordinator, Livingstone – Figure 25Continuity of water supply (Source: SLB, 15 May 2014 ...... 37 2015) ...... 101 Figure 10 Urban areas of Zimbabwe (red dots) and Figure 26 Per capita daily supply of water by urban Natural Regions of Zimbabwe (Sources: Arup, council (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 101 adapted from FAO (2006) ...... 39 Figure 27 Percentage of households with access to Figure 11 Excerpt from the EPI Country Profile functional toilets (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 105 Zimbabwe (0 = worst; 100 = best) Source: EPI, Figure 28 Percentage of households with access to 2018 improved sanitation facilities (Source: Census, https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/ 2012) ...... 105 2018-zwe.pdf ...... 43 Figure 29 Percentage of generated waste collected Figure 12: Local Government System in by council (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 110 Zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019, adapted from Figure 30 Percentage of properties with kerbside Marume, 2015`` ...... 44 waste collection (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 110 Figure 13 Hierarchy of urban centers. Source: Figure 31 Under Weight Percentages By GOZ, Habitat III, 2015 ...... 45 District/City And Province (Under 5 Yrs. Old), Figure 14 Locations of Urban Councils/Areas in 2014 ...... 112 zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019 with Mapbox basemap ...... 46

Figure 32 Average Annual Household Cash World Bank (2019) and informal employment data Consumption Expenditure by Province from ZimStat (2012) ...... 144 Percentage(Food, Non alcoholic beverage) ...... 112 Figure 49 Economic diversity by urban centre Figure 33 Percentage of children under 5 years of (Source: Authors, 2019) ...... 145 age with stunting (Source: Zimstat, 2014) ...... 115 Figure 50 Percentage of businesses started in the Figure 34 Percentage of underweight children last two years (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: under 5 years of age (Source: Zimstat, 2014) .... 115 Province-level data) ...... 147 Figure 35 Percentage of average annual household Figure 51 Labour force participation rate expenditure on food (Source: Zimstat, 2017.Note: (individuals > 15 years of age) (Source: Census, Province-level data) ...... 115 2012) ...... 147 Figure 36: Map showing location of power Figure 52 GINI coefficient of economic inequality infrastructure in Zimbabwe. Source: Africa (Source: Zimstat, 2015) ...... 147 Development Bank ...... 117 Figure 53 Percentage of businesses with majority Figure 37 Percentage of households with electricity female ownership (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: connection (Source: Census, 2012) ...... 124 Province-level data) ...... 148 Figure 38 Percentage of households using Figure 54 Employment in the informal sector electricity or natural gas as source of energy for (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data) cooking (Source: Census, 2012) ...... 124 ...... 148 Figure 39 Infant mortality rate (Source: Census, Figure 55: Household income, expenditure and 2012) ...... 129 remittances per urban centre (Source: extract from Figure 40 Maternal mortality rate (Source: Census, quantitative data) ...... 151 2012 ...... 129 Figure 56 Household resilience (Source: Authors) Figure 41 Tertiary education completion rate ...... 152 (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) Figure 57: Annual household expenditure, as ...... 134 proportion of income (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Figure 42 Secondary education completion rate Note: Province-level data) ...... 154 (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) Figure 58: Poverty rate (Source: Zimstat, 2016...... 134 Note: Province-level data) ...... 154 Figure 43 Primary education completion rate Figure 59: Average annual household income (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data) ...... 134 ...... 154 Figure 44 Aerial image showing peri-urban areas Figure 60 Average household expenditure as of Epworth (Photo by Sachin Bhoite) ...... 136 percentage of average remittances received Figure 45: Average Annual Household Cash (Source: Zimstat, 2017. Note: Province-level data) Consumption Expenditure by Urban Local ...... 162 Authority (Source: Zimstat) ...... 136 Figure 61 Expansion area on woodland in Kariba Figure 46 Percentage Of Annual Household in 2019 Image: © CNES - Google Maps ...... 168 Expenditure On Housing (Source: Zimstat, 2018. Figure 62 Figure 6 Bird’s eye view of Kariba Note: Province-Level Data) ...... 139 expansion Image: © CNES - Google Maps ...... 168 Figure 47 Percentage of households living in Figure 63 Gokwe aerial photography. Note improved housing typologies (Source: Census, agricultural land still on the outskirt of town. Date: 2012) ...... 139 28 April 2013 Image © Maxar Technologies – Figure 48: GDP and informal employment Google Earth Pro ...... 168 (Source: Authors, 2019 based on GDP data from

Figure 64 Gokwe. Note agricultural land occupied Figure 76: Efficiency of collection of user charges by settlements and land subdivided (centre) and on municipal services (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 208 unplanned occupation of previous agricultural land Figure 77: Water-focussed urban systems (on top-right). Date 4 July 2019 Image © CNES / interdependency ...... 216 Airbus – Google Earth Pro ...... 169 Figure 78: Municipal finance focused urban Figure 65 Wetland map of Harare. Source: systems interdependency ...... 217 Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe Figure 79: Local economy focused urban systems (2012)...... 169 interdependency ...... 219 Figure 66 Ground figure illustrating planned, Figure 80: Livelihoods focused urban systems unplanned and informal areas in Harare (South- interdependency ...... 219 West). Source: Authors, 2019 with MapBox ..... 169 Figure 81: Environment and ecosystems focused Figure 67 Image showing informal settlements in urban systems interdependency ...... 220 Harare (South-West), built across ecologically Figure 82: Energy focused urban systems sensitive areas. Source: MapBox ...... 170 interdependency ...... 222 Figure 68 Satellite image taken in May 2008, Figure 83: Trunk infrastructure focused urban Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery Maxar Tech., 2008) systems interdependency ...... 223 ...... 170 Figure 84: Estimated risk levels calculated against Figure 69 Satellite image taken in July 2019, shocks and stressors levels, and observed Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery (C) CNES / Airbus, sensitivity in the 32 urban areas (Source: Authors, Maxar Tch, Map Data (c) 2019) ...... 170 2019) ...... 230 Figure 70 GHG Emissions from Energy Use, 2015, Figure 85 Illustration of overall findings scored by Calculated according to IPCC source categories specialists, national and local consultations and (Energy), based on national statistics and IEA data. data review ...... 233 Source: Draft of Zimbabwe’s Low Emission Figure 86 Illustration of coping ranges. Source: Development Strategy, GoZ, 2019 - unpublished Authors, 2019 ...... 238 ...... 170 Figure 87 Illustration of potential scenarios as Figure 71 Satellite image of industrial areas in observed by URSA. Source: Authors, 2019 . Error! KweKwe, contiguos to residential areas: © CNES - Bookmark not defined. Google Maps ...... 171 Figure 72 Illustration of industrial areas (orange contour); brownfields (purple contour); residential Table 1 Ecoregions of Zimbabwe and urban areas. areas (yellow contour) and contiguos residential Adapted from Sawe (Ecological Regions Of areas (yellow contour) in KweKwe: © CNES - Zimbabwe, 2017)(Ecological Regions Of Google Maps ...... 171 Zimbabwe, 2017) ...... 38 Figure 73: Percentage of households with access to Table 2 Natural Regions of Zimbabwe and list of a fixed line telephone at home (Source: Zimstat, urban areas (Source: Adapted from FAO, 2006) . 39 2015) ...... 179 Table 3 Laws and policies relevant for Figure 74: Percentage of households with access to environment in urban areas. Source: adapted from mobile telephone (Source: Zimstat, 2015. Note: Low-Carbon Emission Strategy , GoZ, 2019, Province-level data.) ...... 179 unpublished ...... 42 Figure 75. How decentralisation works. Abstract Table 4 Historic Phases of urban development in from UN-Habitat. World Cities Report (2016) Zimbabwe Sources: (Munzwa & Wellington, Chapter 6, p. 109 ...... 195 2014), (ICED, 2017); Authors, 2019 ...... 47

Table 5 Summary of typical street patterns in Figure 3 System network analysis visualisation by Zimbabwe and significance for resilience. Source: URSA (Source: Authors, 2019 ...... 27 Authors, 2019. Ground-figures prepared with Figure 4 Summary overview of research methods MapBox ...... 48 used for the URSA (source: authors, 2019) ...... 28 Table 6 Current Characteristics of cities. Sources: Figure 5 Summary Of Zimbabwean Economic And Authors, 2019 with ZimStat 2012 and Mbiba, B. Development Indicators (1980 - 2018) (Source: 2017 with ZimSTAT data of 2002 and 2012...... 50 IMF, 2018) ...... 32 Table 7 Summary table: urban policies, regulations Figure 6: FigBritish Geological Survey with data and land-use planning instruments. Source: from WWF and FAO (Placeholder) ...... 33 Authors, 2019 ...... 56 Figure 7: Elevation map of Zimbabwe showing 32 Table 8 Summary of Key legal instruments urban area. Source: Authors (2019) ...... 34 supporting decentralisation. Source: Authors, 2019 Figure 8: Wetland map of Harare. Source: ...... 58 Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe Table 10 Observed urbanisation and rural linkage (2012)...... 36 trends with relevance for urban resilience ...... 59 Figure 9 Mineral of Zimbabwe and protected areas. Table 9 Intercensal % population change in urban Source: screenshot from Ecosystem conservation areas. Source: Mbiba, 2017 ...... 59 and restoration initiatives in Zimbabwe, Chip Table 9: Potential future levels of hazard Chirara – Biodiversity Coordinator, Livingstone – accounting for climate change impacts...... 76 15 May 2014 ...... 37 Table 10 Climate change model indicators Figure 10 Urban areas of Zimbabwe (red dots) and extracted at the location of the 32 urban areas. .... 83 Natural Regions of Zimbabwe (Sources: Arup, Table 11 : Cyclonic events in Zimbabwe. Source: adapted from FAO (2006) ...... 39 adapted and completed from International Union Figure 11 Excerpt from the EPI Country Profile for the Conservation of Nature, 2005; and *NASA Zimbabwe (0 = worst; 100 = best) Source: EPI, 2017. 2019 ...... 87 2018 Table 12 Relative change in each of the indicators https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/ to consider the potential future levels of hazard 2018-zwe.pdf ...... 43 accounting for climate change ...... 90 Figure 12: Local Government System in Table 13: Energy Suppliers w/ Installed and Zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019, adapted from Available Capacity ...... 116 Marume, 2015`` ...... 44 Table 14: ZPC Project Implementation And Figure 13 Hierarchy of urban centers. Source: Funding Strategy ...... 120 GOZ, Habitat III, 2015 ...... 45 Table 15: Potential for renewable energy ...... 122 Figure 14 Locations of Urban Councils/Areas in Table 16: Examples of Urban Form Typologies 189 zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019 with Mapbox Table 17 Summary of recommended phases for basemap ...... 46 urban resilience building. Source: Authors, 2019 Figure 15: Global seismic hazard map. Peak ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. ground acceleration (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period) . 72 Figure 16 Hazards in ZImbabwe according to Figure 1 Analytical framework for the URSA ..... 17 ThinkHazard! ...... 74 Figure 2 Urban councils consulted in local Figure 17: NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility workshops. The Harare workshop was also Map ...... 75 attended by Chitingwiza, Epworth and Ruwa Figure 18: Figure 3 Malaria Risk Map - Health (Source: Authors, 2019, with MapBox image) ... 24 Protection Scotland (Accessed 2019) ...... 78

Figure 19: Figure 4 Cholera Risk Map – World Figure 36: Map showing location of power Health Organisation (2008) ...... 79 infrastructure in Zimbabwe. Source: Africa Figure 20 Frequency, mortality and economic Development Bank ...... 117 impact data for Zimbabwe Source: EM-DATA, Figure 37 Percentage of households with electricity CRED EM-DAT (Feb. 2015) : www.emdat.be connection (Source: Census, 2012) ...... 124 Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - Figure 38 Percentage of households using Belgium...... 84 electricity or natural gas as source of energy for Figure 21: Shock and Stresses Profile 2019 and cooking (Source: Census, 2012) ...... 124 2050. Source Authors (2019) ...... 91 Figure 39 Infant mortality rate (Source: Census, Figure 22: Urban Resilience Framework for 2012) ...... 129 Zimbabwe ...... 92 Figure 40 Maternal mortality rate (Source: Census, Figure 23 Percentage of properties in the urban 2012 ...... 129 council with direct water supply (Source: SLB, Figure 41 Tertiary education completion rate 2015) ...... 100 (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) Figure 24 Percentage of water supplied to ...... 134 properties that passes quality benchmarks (Source: Figure 42 Secondary education completion rate SLB, 2015) ...... 100 (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) Figure 25Continuity of water supply (Source: SLB, ...... 134 2015) ...... 101 Figure 43 Primary education completion rate Figure 26 Per capita daily supply of water by urban (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data) council (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 101 ...... 134 Figure 27 Percentage of households with access to Figure 44 Aerial image showing peri-urban areas functional toilets (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 105 of Epworth (Photo by Sachin Bhoite) ...... 136 Figure 28 Percentage of households with access to Figure 45: Average Annual Household Cash improved sanitation facilities (Source: Census, Consumption Expenditure by Urban Local 2012) ...... 105 Authority (Source: Zimstat) ...... 136 Figure 29 Percentage of generated waste collected Figure 46 Percentage Of Annual Household by council (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 110 Expenditure On Housing (Source: Zimstat, 2018. Figure 30 Percentage of properties with kerbside Note: Province-Level Data) ...... 139 waste collection (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 110 Figure 47 Percentage of households living in Figure 31 Under Weight Percentages By improved housing typologies (Source: Census, District/City And Province (Under 5 Yrs. Old), 2012) ...... 139 2014 ...... 112 Figure 48: GDP and informal employment Figure 32 Average Annual Household Cash (Source: Authors, 2019 based on GDP data from Consumption Expenditure by Province World Bank (2019) and informal employment data Percentage(Food, Non alcoholic beverage) ...... 112 from ZimStat (2012) ...... 144 Figure 33 Percentage of children under 5 years of Figure 49 Economic diversity by urban centre age with stunting (Source: Zimstat, 2014) ...... 115 (Source: Authors, 2019) ...... 145 Figure 34 Percentage of underweight children Figure 50 Percentage of businesses started in the under 5 years of age (Source: Zimstat, 2014) .... 115 last two years (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Figure 35 Percentage of average annual household Province-level data) ...... 147 expenditure on food (Source: Zimstat, 2017.Note: Figure 51 Labour force participation rate Province-level data) ...... 115 (individuals > 15 years of age) (Source: Census, 2012) ...... 147

Figure 52 GINI coefficient of economic inequality Figure 67 Image showing informal settlements in (Source: Zimstat, 2015) ...... 147 Harare (South-West), built across ecologically Figure 53 Percentage of businesses with majority sensitive areas. Source: MapBox ...... 170 female ownership (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Figure 68 Satellite image taken in May 2008, Province-level data) ...... 148 Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery Maxar Tech., 2008) Figure 54 Employment in the informal sector ...... 170 (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data) Figure 69 Satellite image taken in July 2019, ...... 148 Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery (C) CNES / Airbus, Figure 55: Household income, expenditure and Maxar Tch, Map Data (c) 2019) ...... 170 remittances per urban centre (Source: extract from Figure 70 GHG Emissions from Energy Use, 2015, quantitative data) ...... 151 Calculated according to IPCC source categories Figure 56 Household resilience (Source: Authors) (Energy), based on national statistics and IEA data...... 152 Source: Draft of Zimbabwe’s Low Emission Figure 57: Annual household expenditure, as Development Strategy, GoZ, 2019 - unpublished proportion of income (Source: Zimstat, 2016...... 170 Note: Province-level data) ...... 154 Figure 71 Satellite image of industrial areas in Figure 58: Poverty rate (Source: Zimstat, 2016. KweKwe, contiguos to residential areas: © CNES - Note: Province-level data) ...... 154 Google Maps ...... 171 Figure 59: Average annual household income Figure 72 Illustration of industrial areas (orange (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data) contour); brownfields (purple contour); residential ...... 154 areas (yellow contour) and contiguos residential Figure 60 Average household expenditure as areas (yellow contour) in KweKwe: © CNES - percentage of average remittances received Google Maps ...... 171 (Source: Zimstat, 2017. Note: Province-level data) Figure 73: Percentage of households with access to ...... 162 a fixed line telephone at home (Source: Zimstat, Figure 61 Expansion area on woodland in Kariba 2015) ...... 179 in 2019 Image: © CNES - Google Maps ...... 168 Figure 74: Percentage of households with access to Figure 62 Figure 6 Bird’s eye view of Kariba mobile telephone (Source: Zimstat, 2015. Note: expansion Image: © CNES - Google Maps ...... 168 Province-level data.) ...... 179 Figure 63 Gokwe aerial photography. Note Figure 75. How decentralisation works. Abstract agricultural land still on the outskirt of town. Date: from UN-Habitat. World Cities Report (2016) 28 April 2013 Image © Maxar Technologies – Chapter 6, p. 109...... 195 Google Earth Pro...... 168 Figure 76: Efficiency of collection of user charges Figure 64 Gokwe. Note agricultural land occupied on municipal services (Source: SLB, 2015) ...... 208 by settlements and land subdivided (centre) and Figure 77: Water-focussed urban systems unplanned occupation of previous agricultural land interdependency ...... 216 (on top-right). Date 4 July 2019 Image © CNES / Figure 78: Municipal finance focused urban Airbus – Google Earth Pro ...... 169 systems interdependency ...... 217 Figure 65 Wetland map of Harare. Source: Figure 79: Local economy focused urban systems Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe interdependency ...... 219 (2012)...... 169 Figure 80: Livelihoods focused urban systems Figure 66 Ground figure illustrating planned, interdependency ...... 219 unplanned and informal areas in Harare (South- Figure 81: Environment and ecosystems focused West). Source: Authors, 2019 with MapBox ..... 169 urban systems interdependency ...... 220

Figure 82: Energy focused urban systems interdependency ...... 222 Figure 83: Trunk infrastructure focused urban systems interdependency ...... 223 Figure 84: Estimated risk levels calculated against shocks and stressors levels, and observed sensitivity in the 32 urban areas (Source: Authors, 2019) ...... 230 Figure 85 Illustration of overall findings scored by specialists, national and local consultations and data review ...... 233 Figure 86 Illustration of coping ranges. Source: Authors, 2019 ...... 238 Figure 87 Illustration of potential scenarios as observed by URSA. Source: Authors, 2019 Error! Bookmark not defined.

Summary economic shocks and poor livelihood opportunity. In this context, additional shocks, for instance the current drought, will likely result in further disruption and impact for Urban Circumstances in Zimbabwe urban household, which have already exhausted their capacities to cope with these Urban areas have historically offered adverse circumstances. opportunities for economic development and social fulfilment to people in Zimbabwe. Urban resilience system analysis Currently, the country’s macro-economic The causes of these circumstances are circumstances manifest in cities of Zimbabwe complex: some are generated within the urban through high unemployment rates, cash fabric of Zimbabwe, while other depend from liquidity challenges and limited livelihood national – or even international – options, and deindustrialization. Due to this, circumstances, as well as being rooted in millions of urban dwellers in the 32 Urban historic or long-term trends. While, most Local Authorities (ULA) of Zimbabwe are nature-induced shocks and macro-economic adversely affected by many natural and shocks are beyond ULA’s capacity to human-induced shocks and stressors, which influence, several chronic stresses accumulate impact their life, dignity and wellbeing. because of the protracted malfunctioning of Urban councils face challenges in providing urban systems and services, for instance poor basic services to meet the demand, which in water delivery, sanitation and solid waste turn increases vulnerability of people, management affecting health outcomes. particularly in dense urban settings. Solutions needed would require a systemic, Assessments show increase in socio-economic integrated, long-term approach. The Urban vulnerabilities in urban areas from 2018 to Resilience System Analysis (URSA) was 2019 with about 40.6% of the urban conducted to better understand the roots of population currently deemed to be food these issues. insecure; and 38% burdened by debts. The resilience concept was used because it Multidimensional poverty in urban areas of focuses on how cities function as systems to Zimbabwe is increasing rapidly and urban support people’s wellbeing and health, in the dwellers are negatively affected by price face of shocks and stresses. Urban resilience fluctuation of basic goods, epidemics, water- helps people in cities and local authorities to scarcity, droughts, cyclones and floods among cope with the negative effects of multiple others. To survive, many urban dwellers shocks and stresses, by absorbing the negative seldom resort to unsustainable or negative effects, and adapt or transform as necessary. methods to access basic services or generate Building urban resilience requires integrated income. For instance, by cutting fuelwood in and coordinated action across several sectors, peri-urban areas affected by power outages; because these are highly interconnected in accessing unsafe water sources that compound cities in Zimbabwe. Though, in Zimbabwe it is health risks; or resorting to crime and sex- also urgent to improve lives of urban dwellers work. The most vulnerable people in cities exposed to severe impacts which cannot wait (especially in peri-urban areas, border and for the entire urban system to be ‘fixed’. mining towns, and informal settlements) are Therefore, in addition to identifying the disproportionality affected, including women, critical sector or subsystems that require children and Youth. Dropout from school of attention, the analysis also attempted to children, for instance, is directly linked to identify immediate, short, mid and long-term

9 priorities to protect and empower urban levels through increased severity of droughts, high- communities; capacitate local authorities to winds and floods; as well as further challenges in deliver; and improve urban systems. The water availability and food security. There are URSA focuses on people and systems of the capacities for disaster risk management at national 32 ULAs currently considered urban by the and local level, good practices in prevention and response, such as “rapid response teams” for Government of Zimbabwe (‘Resilience of cholera response. These strengths must be what’). It analyses exposure of urban areas to reinforced. Denser and larger centres and peri- shocks and stresses induced by nature (and urban areas experience higher levels of societal climate change), humans and the systems vulnerabilities including unemployment, violence (‘Resilience to what’); it then studies how 24 against women and children, sexual and gender- sub-systems in 4 key dimensions contribute to based violence: vulnerabilities far exceed the resilience (‘Resilience through what’) and current social and child protection capacities. concludes on recommendations to benefit people and local authorities (‘Resilience for Resilience through what? what’). The Urban Resilience Framework for Zimbabwe (URFZ) identifies four (4) dimensions that are

Resilience of what? critical to urban resilience. It is underpinned by 24 Despite the challenges, there exist enabling sub-systems that contribute to any city’s resilience. circumstances rooted in local governance, Collectively, when functioning well, they planning and design of cities of Zimbabwe. contribute to the resilience of the city overall. Local governance is enshrined in the Dimension 1: Health and basic needs: Zimbabwe’s Constitution of 2013 and there are policies and urban centres are unable to deliver reliable services acts that govern urban settings. Most urban necessary to meet people’s basic needs, especially areas are still formally planned and maintain within Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene their original designed form. However, there (WASH) and Solid Waste management are significant environmental degradation systems. This affects urban dwellers health and trends, circular mobility, rigidity of policies, wellbeing and undermine the overall city- resilience. In addition, food insecurity is growing, insufficient participation in governance, that and energy under-supply affects the delivery of limit the potential of cities and local most services. Although performing relatively governance. well, the educational system does not provide a Resilience to what? guaranteed avenue to a secure livelihood and is not inclusive. Households regularly supplement Currently all 32 urban councils in Zimbabwe are income shortcomings through a range of coping exposed to medium and high risk of natural, tactics: when protracted, however, these end-up human and system-induced shocks & stresses. increasing people’s vulnerability and affecting These risks are driven by a combination of very urban systems: for instance, the unregulated use of high socio-economic, ecological, infrastructure and alternative water sources like individual boreholes service vulnerability with a range of natural or WASH systems (e.g. pit latrines) increases hazards and system-induced stresses. Economic health risks and degrades the environment. In the shocks have the highest and most recurrent impact short-term, it is vital to support communities in on households in almost all urban areas. Natural accessing safe, affordable and reliable services by hazards include medium to high levels of floods, supporting alternative technologies, and cyclones and droughts, across urban councils. community-driven services. However, in the mid Water scarcity, determined by issues in supply, is to long-term, there must be significant investment compounded by climate change and influenced by in improving and increasing the supply through recurring droughts. Changes in climate have appropriate technologies and reticulation already been observed in cities of Zimbabwe. rehabilitation, and demand management Projected further changes will worsen hazard

Dimension 2: Economy, Society and Livelihoods. subdivision and reconfiguration of land. There are Urban dwellers in Zimbabwe benefit from a significant environmental degradation trends, relatively strong social capital, despite challenges. induced by unsustainable use of resources (e.g. This contributes to the resilience of households and water; fuelwood) fuelled by poor service-delivery informal workers. For instance, new migrants have or lack of development control within cities and in been able to come together to find solutions by the peripheries. It is critical that environment tapping on existing social networks. However, drives any integrated urban resilience initiative. livelihoods capacities are exhausted in most low There are also opportunities to utilise skills of and mid-income households of most urban competent personnel in the engineering, councils. The informal economy dominates architectural, planning and environmental sectors. livelihood generation, currently: once again, the The digital sector may also enable resilience URSA finds that ‘resilience’ mostly rely on the flexibility and resourcefulness of people. However, Governance and Participation. There are strong livelihood margins are exhausted and informal foundations for local governance, leadership and initiative remains unacknowledged and participation, anchored in Zimbabwe’s unsupported by local authorities. Education and Constitution. The policy and regulatory skills exist but the weakness of the market severely framework, however, should evolve to limits opportunity (jobs) and drives out-ward accommodate change and recognise the new migration to neighbouring countries like Zambia circumstances of urban Zimbabwe. For example, and South Africa as well as internationally(brain- it is of immediate importance that regulations drain). Educated youth in cities are dismayed by an protect the environment and eco-system services; inability to apply skills and knowledge to earn a and by-laws unlock the potential of the informal decent living. It should be noted that the poor economy. Actual devolution of power and economic outcomes and limited livelihood affects resources to local authorities is needed to really basic service delivery as well (willingness to pay; promote Local Economic Development (LED) education; food security; housing) and is initiatives. Administrative processes and influenced by governance (municipal finance; governance mechanisms are in place to enable participation) and poor infrastructure. It is vital that decision-making and management: but they are any urban resilience intervention (for instance on influenced by political agendas, and do not WASH) is primarily connected to livelihood facilitate citizen participation. Inclusive generation in the short to mid-term, and directly participation of citizens in the decision-making and promote Local Economic Development, service-delivery is unanimously voiced as one of particularly by supporting Youth entrepreneurship, the priorities. Municipal finance is also the single and private sector initiatives. most challenging area that affects resilience. Tax- basis in urban areas is narrow and very limited: Dimension 3: Infrastructure, Environment & integrated resilience interventions must necessarily Urban Form. Zimbabwe’s ageing trunk and include the support of local governance and service infrastructure hampers urban local increase municipal finance resources. economic development and undermines the functioning of urban systems. Rehabilitation and Resilience for what? retrofitting is required, but capital investment is The URSA concludes that, currently, people unlikely to materialise in the short to mid- and systems in most urban councils of term. Digital services are helping in coping with stresses, for instance cash liquidity shortage, Zimbabwe cope with the adverse effects of through eco-cash; or connecting urban demand shocks and stressors through a mix of short- with rural supply, for instance mobile applications term coping and responsive strategies. This tested in Harare. Urban form in cities retains enables survival, but undermines people’s qualities from its original planning intent. But the health, dignity, labour-rights and wellbeing; growing demand, rigidity in the application of and degrades the urban systems overtime. standards with low development control capacities are encouraging unplanned and informal

Building urban resilience in Zimbabwe, along with capital investments on appropriate currently, should be done by a) urgently technology on-grid are mobilized. addressing tackling the most pressing sources • Social welfare and protection, while not of vulnerability of people (especially children, appearing very central in the analysis, are Youth and women) in the immediate and critical and should be prioritized in the short to short-terms and address underlying cause in mid-term, and be activated swiftly in case of the mid to the long-term; b) capacitate the shocks. This is especially important in the local authorities to deliver better; c) investing current context given the expected impact of in improving the system investing in physical droughts and macro-economic stabilization rehabilitation. measures on people Critical areas for intervention Conversely, the URSA recommends that in order to directly tackle the vulnerability of The URSA recommends that, in order to people in cities of Zimbabwe action is taken in obtain the maximum impact on resilience in several of the following areas: the current context of Zimbabwe, integrated programmes must necessarily include Vulnerability-reduction areas activities in several of the following areas: • Water & sanitation, Solid Waste Management Enabling areas (SWM), remain central for the populations’ health and wellbeing, and is one of the most • Livelihood and income generating activities. central systems that is likely to be affected This is highly interconnected to basic services negatively in turn generating cascades of and social capital, safety & security and a failure in other systems while generating critical element of any intervention hazards for human health; • Local economic development (formal or • Environment & eco-systems is highly affected informal), as this area is connected to most of by failures or under-performance in other the other urban sub-systems across all systems. It also has high potential to accrue dimensions; risks for people and assets and should therefore be prioritized. • Municipal finance, including process, tools and projects to boost revenues and optimise their • Food security, is both negatively affected by use. This has a very high level of centrality and livelihood and local economy and strongly influence all urban systems; affects people. • Urban policy and land-use planning, as • Livelihood is also influenced and affected by shortcomings in this area is affecting several other sub-systems. It has therefore a environment, housing, basic-service delivery, very strong centrality, and should the backbone inclusiveness and participation; but the strong of each intervention background in this area can be a stepping stone for resilient inclusive urban design, service- Any intervention that aim at building urban delivery and participation; resilience will need to integrate actions in both the enabling and vulnerability-reduction areas. • Mechanisms to boost citizen participation Thematic, spatial and time priorities • Energy is essential to enable subsystems to function and is currently affecting several sub- Resources are limited and working in all the systems. It is essential that alternative above-mentioned areas will be very technology interventions – particular off-grid challenging. Prioritisation should consider: and hybrid renewable energy solutions –;

• Areas that are critical or foundational building delivery linked to income-generation activities. resilience of people and systems in urban areas It is a best practice to initiate with a city-level of in Zimbabwe, i.e.: livelihoods; water, City Resilience Action Plan, which help sanitation and solid-waste-management; identify priorities and plan for the short to the energy (on-grid, off-grid, mixed); food- long-term involving many stakeholders. security; environmental management; inclusive • and participatory governance and urban Mid to long-term phase. This should focus on planning – including transport-planning; transitioning from alternative to appropriate municipal finance. technologies, and would require transitioning to spatial planning, investment in light industry • Areas of work that will depend on the specific and labour-intensive infrastructure. This phase context, or contingent on phases and capital could be expanded to city-level in larger cities investment, i.e. LED, legal and policy-reform and municipalities, involve provinces to foster and large infrastructure. rural-urban linkages and value-chains, and national urban reform It is essential that all urban resilience activities Way forward in Zimbabwe embed below: The urban resilience agenda is politically • Youth, i.e. empowerment through civic supported across national and local levels. There is participation and economic opportunities an extraordinary opportunity for the national and (employment, livelihood generation), local authorities to adopt a resilience approach in entrepreneurship); municipal finance, planning and programming; and • Women socio-economic empowerment and for development partners to help addressing safety; vulnerabilities of urban communities, while • Children’ safety, protection and urban child- supporting the improvement of urban systems. The centred-design URSA suggests that : • A dedicated Urban Resilience Building Fund is Supporting digital applications will foster established, to coordinate action, modelled on innovation, informal economy and social the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund, but service delivery recognising the challenges specific to the urban contexts Initiatives will need to be implemented with a • The country adopts a national strategy or phased approach as follows: roadmap to build urban resilience overtime • Immediate (and crisis modification) phase. • The development partners coordinate urban Given the current context and observed resilience actions: the complexity of the urban vulnerability, urban resilience interventions contexts and extent of the challenges require must recognise the need to prioritise that all resources are used efficiently. Isolated immediate vulnerability reduction, including and fragmented interventions are unlikely to through social protection and cash-for-work build resilience in urban areas. interventions. These circumstances may recur in the next years, and practitioners should be prepared to reactivate it rapidly and effectively to help modifying the crisis • Short-term phase. This should focus on the most vulnerable cities and urban areas and aim at building a ‘stepping-stone’ for communities and local authorities. This could be characterised by support in alternative technologies, community-driven service-

Introduction considered to be higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Background Secondly, the high rate of failure of interdependent sub-systems that are critical for people wellbeing Understanding vulnerabilities and and safety in urban areas, such as poor wastewater challenges in urban areas of Zimbabwe treatment due to power shortages in operating plants that result in the contamination of water sources and heightened health risks. The cascade Resilience programming in Zimbabwe has of failures observed in urban areas in Zimbabwe progressed considerably since 2015 through the across sub-systems hinders the ability of urban work of the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund areas to deliver safe and adequate services and (ZRBF). The ZRBF aims at increase “adaptive, provide opportunities, which constitutes their very absorptive and transformative capacities of attractiveness. communities to withstand shocks and stresses”, with a focus on rural communities highly Thirdly, the scale to which urban dwellers must vulnerable to the negative effects of natural engage in unsustainable coping strategies to access hazards; and human-induced stresses. critical basic services or generate income, and the However, emerging compelling evidence demands negative effect these have on people and urban that dedicated approaches are developed to reduce systems. This may involve, for instance, vulnerabilities in urban areas of Zimbabwe. deforestation driven by the need for fuelwood in peri-urban areas affected by power outages; access While multidimensional poverty remains to unsafe water sources that compound health comparatively higher in rural areas than in urban risks; crime and sex-work; as well as the relaxation areas, with 30.4 per cent of urban households of development standards that may affect land-use deemed poor (ZimStat, 2017), a number of and eco-systems in urban areas, including observed trends demands more in-depth wetlands. understanding of challenges in urban areas is gained, and pathways to build urban resilience Fourthly, the high risk of disasters resulting from identified. the exposure of people increasingly concentrated in unsafe and underserviced urban and peri-urban This includes, firstly, the high pace at which urban areas to an array of nature, human and-system poverty in observed to be increasing within the induced shocks and stressors. Assessments such as macroeconomic context of Zimbabwe, those conducted by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability accompanied by high unemployment, cash Assessment Committee (ZimVAC)1 show that liquidity challenges and limited livelihood options shocks lamented by urban household are primarily in deindustrializing urban areas, especially high economic shocks, including sharp price increases; density and satellite towns. This pace is now transport costs; and cash shortages; which drive risks in urban areas. Climate change has been

1 ZimVAC is a consortium of Government, Nutrition Security Information System. It regularly Development Partners and Academia that act as conducts detailed assessments, including seven (7) in technical advisory committee for the national Food and urban areas since 2002

already observed to induce negative effects in increase in socio-economic vulnerabilities in urban urban areas already directly through the increase in areas from 2018 to 2019 (ZimVAC, 2019). In extreme and median events, such as water scarcity 2018, about 1.5 million people were estimated to or aplenty; and indirectly through droughts and be food insecure or 37% of the urban population. crop failures resulting on food retail price increase The same study in August 2019, concluded that the in urban areas. Climate change projections lead to food insecure population had increased to 40.6% of believe that extreme events may increase in the urban population (ZimVAC, 2019). In severity and that average temperature and rainfall addition, the debt burden increased from 32% in departure will exacerbate the hazard profile of the 2018 to 38% in 2019, which indicates increased country. Urban areas in the southern dry belt, such vulnerability in most urban households. Also, the as Bulawayo and Beitbridge will likely face further documented increase in the use of firewood for water stresses; while cities in hilly eastern areas cooking within the urban areas illustrates the resort such as Mutare and Chipinge may well experience at scale to unsustainable coping strategies, which further episodes of torrential rains, associated drives land degradation and eco-system services’ landslides, and strong-winds; cities in the Highveld depletion. Socially, there is growing evidence on and across the country will also potentially the impact of economic deprivation and inequality experience further risks of floods; heat-island in access to opportunities have on women, effects; and water stresses. children, as well as Youth opportunities. Dropout from school of children, for instance, is directly Lastly, the volatile economic and political context linked to economic shocks and poor livelihood of the country is driving a complex migration opportunities of urban households, linked to the patterns. Data from the Zimbabwe National increase in cost of services, and food. Large Statistics Agency (ZimStat) for Census 2002 and proportions of households led by orphans as well 2012 seemed to suggest a ‘de-urbanising’ factor, as low social protection support are also observed explained by economic and demographic factors. by ZimVAC 2019. Spatially growing urban However, not accounting for inconsistencies in the poverty and cumulative failures across sub-systems methodology for data collection, urbanization are resulting in the growth of unplanned, poorly trends in Zimbabwe are multi-faceted: with high regulated and serviced or illegally built levels of circularity from rural to urban areas; settlements, accompanied by degradation of land across and within urban areas; and from urban and eco-system services, poor sanitation, energy areas back to the rural areas, in addition to the and water service delivery. For instance, in Harare, demographic differentials accounted for in the loss of wetlands from undue formal and informal Census enumeration; and changes in administrative land occupation contributes to the depletion of the boundaries. This complexity may hide an shallow water table; while water sources are also underestimation of the urban challenge in overexploited through unregulated borehole Zimbabwe. drilling in densely populated areas.

In this complex context, urban dwellers in Identifying pathways to urban resilience in Zimbabwe are facing high levels of deprivation Zimbabwe and inequality that manifest in social, economic and spatial vulnerabilities to the adverse effects of multiple shocks and stressors. If unaddressed, the Acknowledging this complexity, UNDP and interplay of vulnerabilities, shock and stressors in UNICEF have initiated in 2019 the implementation urban areas will likely further affect millions of of the Partnership for Building Urban Resilience urban dwellers in the country. Assessments show in Zimbabwe programme.

The objective of the programme is developing an knowledge gap and enabling evidence-based urban urban resilience model in selected towns as well as resilience programming in Zimbabwe. generating evidence and knowledge to strengthen the urban resilience in the country. Its overall goal Purpose and scope of the Urban is to find ways to reduce increasing vulnerability of Resilience Systems Assessment people in urban areas and build resilience of urban (URSA) systems to the benefit of people.

The programme recognized the following directly linked aspects: Scope of the URSA To this end, the URSA investigates the urban • The highly complex urban systems require a context of Zimbabwe with emphasis on thirty-two multi-disciplinary approach that study (32) local authorities as defined by the national networks and sub-system performance, government, and focuses on all environmental, understand strengths and weaknesses, and physical, socio-economic, institutional and identify short, mid and long-term priorities; regulatory aspects that determine urban system’ • Resilience Programming in Zimbabwe has performance, and its resilience vis-à-vis multiple achieved important results in rural areas, with disturbances. The URSA seeks to achieve the mechanisms such as the ZRBF: there is need to following research objectives: focus attention on urban resilience given the • To provide a definition of urban resilience that magnitude of the observed and projected draws on globally-relevant conceptual challenges; approaches but is fit for understanding • There is need to transcend sectoral challenges to be addressed in Zimbabwe interventions in urban areas, as these may be through urban programming. This is achieved ineffective in highly interdependent urban in Chapter 1; systems, or not sustainable. The programme noted the thrust towards Sustainable • To define the conceptual boundaries, and Development Goal 6 (SDG) (sustainable status, of the notion of ‘urban system’ in management of water) of the Government of Zimbabwe. This is achieved in Chapter 2; Zimbabwe (GoZ). This is a high priority considering the high risks of cholera in urban • To determine what disturbances may plausibly areas experienced since the 1990s: but there is affect urban systems in Zimbabwe, as defined need for more integration interventions; above presently and in the future – including • Current knowledge and understanding of the by overlaying climate change projections up to urban challenges remains fragmented, sector- 2050 to the current natural hazard profile. This based or insufficient to ensure investments in is achieved in Chapter 3; urban areas will actually support resilience • To appraise the extent and level to which the building: there is need for a comprehensive urban systems – composed of physical and assessment that generate sufficient evidence non-physical sub-systems – are currently for programme development. observed to be performing or can reasonably With this as background, in 2019 the programme be expected to perform when facing the set of has conducted a national Urban Resilience System disturbances identified above. This is achieved Assessment (URSA) aiming at filling the in Chapter 4;

• To identify potential components of a considering the likely impact of climate programming framework that should be change? addressed to build resilience of the urban • How to build urban resilience? What are the systems, and people in them over the short, key areas of intervention and strategies needed mid and long-term, which is proposed in to build resilience of people and urban systems Chapter 5. in Zimbabwe?

To achieve these objectives, the research used the Intended use and readership of the URSA following analytical framework, as illustrated in Figure 12: The intended primary use of the URSA is to • Resilience of what? What are the inform urban resilience programming of the characteristics of urban systems in Zimbabwe, National Government and Local Authorities; and and people that live in urban areas, considering development partners in the United Nations the environmental, infrastructural, socio- System; bilateral and multilateral organisations; economic and governance context. I/NGOs and the Red Cross Societies; the • Resilience to what? What are the key shocks Academia as well as the Civil Society and the and stressors that may and be plausibly Private Sector. experienced by urban systems in Zimbabwe and adversely influence their ability to perform Definition of urban resilience in to the current or desired levels; Zimbabwe

Figure 1 Analytical framework for the URSA • What resilience levels currently exist? How resilient are urban systems of Zimbabwe – and urban dwellers, especially the most vulnerable people – today and, plausibly, in the future

2 This framework is adapted from multiple sources, and namely (DFID, 2012)

Definition of Urban Resilience ecological systems (SES) must be accounted for (Folke et al., 2010).

In the last decade, the notion of urban resilience In urban studies, despite the success of the notion has emerged as a theoretical and policy framework in the last 10 years, no consensual definition has to “apprehend and manage” the increasingly been developed (Feliciotti et al., 2015; S. Meerow complex urbanization processes characterized by and Newell, 2015; Feliciotti et al., 2016; S. inequality, large scale internal and international Meerow et al., 2016; UN-Habitat, 2017). migrations, and environmental challenges (Folke, Fundamentally, resilience is about the ability of 2006; (da Silva, et al., 2012) (Eraydin & Tasan- complex systems to continue to function in the face Kok, 2013) Pickett et al., 2013; (Sattherthwaite & of changing or challenging circumstances. As there Dodman, 2013); Feliciotti et al., 2015; S. Meerow is a general consensus in that urban settings are and Newell, 2015; Feliciotti et al., 2016; S. complex systems (S. Meerow et al., 2016; Zhanga Meerow et al., 2016; UN-Habitat, 2017). The idea and Lid, 2018) constantly evolving and dealing that an urban system can develop the ability to with growing challenges, then “urban resilience” survive, adapt, and grow despite the effects of (Eraydın and Taşan-Kok, 2013; Feliciotti et al., chronic stresses and acute shocks, as well as 2016) refers to the capacity of cities to function, so recover rapidly and expand, exerted considerable that the people living and working in cities – appeal to city managers and planners. “Resilience particularly the poor and vulnerable – survive and planning” equips the urban manager with the thrive no matter what stresses or shocks they ability to apprehend simultaneously known issues encounter. Of all tensions concerning the definition and the potential for the unknown (Eraydin and of urban resilience, the following deserve attention Tasan-Kok, 2013; Arup, 2014b). in the context of Zimbabwe:

“Resilience” has a well-defined meaning in • The characterization of ‘urban system’ is often engineering disciplines – the ability of a substance insufficiently addressed in the “urban or object to spring back into the original shape at a resilience” literature. Studies refer in general certain speed: the more rapid, the more resilient. to “complexity” and often to the presence of Beyond engineering the use of resilience took root “networks”, as conditions for qualifying a in ecologicasl studies with the article of Crawford settlement as “urban”. ‘Urban systems’ are Stanley Holling, Resilience and Stability of conceptualized as “complex, adaptive, Ecological Systems (1973). In this seminal article emergent ecosystems” (Meerow et al., 2016) (Sara Meerow; Davoudi et al., 2012; Pickett et al., with subsystems to include governance, 2013; S. Meerow and Newell, 2015) Holling material and energy flows, infrastructure and applies the term “resilience” to describe the ability form, and socioeconomic dynamics. The of an ecological system to continue functioning URSA defines urban systems in Zimbabwe in after a disturbance, for instance a natural disaster. Chapter 2, as the key focus of its analysis. In Consequently, ‘socio-ecological resilience’ (Folke Zimbabwe, urban areas are defined et al.,2010) emerged to criticize the “highly administratively based on their size and simplified image of reality in ecosystems” (Folke administrative role, including Cities, et al., 2010) given by ecological studies: this Municipalities, Towns and Local Boards, would not account for the fact that in reality “the numbering 32. The URSA starts from the very nature of systems may change over time”, and national definition of cities to define its scope that dynamic interactions within complex socio- but analyses characteristics of the urban systems ‘from the ground-up’, including

environment, physical, service and networks, URSA reviewed and presented definitions socio-economic exchanges, governance super- from global sources including the United structures; it analyses also typical services and Nations, the Academia and the Private Sector4 functions in the 32 urban areas, and urban form typologies. • Resilience cannot be measured directly; and it is not the inverse of vulnerability. • There is need to define acceptable Vulnerability and resilience are conceptually characteristics of urban resilience. One of the contiguous, but they account for different limitations of the notion of urban resilience is aspects in the same systems. As explained in that it may be used to justify adaptation to the ‘key concepts’ section below, vulnerability recurrent shocks and stressors to any extent. refers to the sensitivity of people or cities to a ‘Urban resilience’ is often considered as a disturbance. It is a construct that is formed positive desired outcome. However, resilient considering the main constitutive aspects of systems can also protract negative the target subject, which in the URSA include mechanisms, and require people to stretch their infrastructure, service, socio-economic, coping strategies. This is the case in environmental and regulatory aspects (Refer to Zimbabwe, where resort to resourcefulness Section 1.4, Methodology). Resilience, instead and flexibility (Refer to key-concepts in this accounts for the ability of systems – and chapter) in some sub-systems enable urban people – to absorb, resist or recover from a areas and dwellers to continue functioning disturbance. This is determined by both the somehow, but to the expense of people inherent or contextual characteristics (also wellbeing and sustainable development. The called ‘capitals’) and the behavior (or acceptable extent to which the systems – and ‘capacities’) that those systems assume when the people in them – reach to survive must be facing a disturbance. The URSA does not defined to inform programming. To this end, measure resilience directly, as resilience is not the URSA uses the notion of ‘what good looks the product of indicators. The URSA appraises like’, ‘benchmarks’ and ‘coping ranges’ resilience by assessing both the sensitivity described in the terminology section below; determined by a set of indicators collected from SLB data ZimStat and by assessing • There is need for a definition that consider the qualitatively the resilience behaviours of current work done in Zimbabwe and globally, Zimbabwe urban systems, using seven (7) namely by the Zimbabwe Resilience Building resilience qualities, as described below Fund3. The URSA consultations agreed on that the urban context is very different from rural areas. However, at the core concepts remain valid. It is useful to acknowledge the work done by the ZRBF in this sense. Also, the

3 That is: “The ability of at risk individuals, households, and recovery gains, and supports sustainable communities and systems to anticipate, cushion, adapt, transformation” . bounce back better and move on from the effects of 4 These definitions are provided in the Research shocks and hazards in a manner that protects livelihoods Protocol of the URSA. They include sources from UN- Habitat, UNISDR, Rockefeller Foundation.

With this said, and based on consultations in change is ongoing and uncertain, and because Zimbabwe, the URSA adopted the following intentional transformation takes time and sustained definition of urban resilience: engagement. For the purpose of the URSA, this refers to the ability of urban systems in Zimbabwe “The ability of urban systems & dwellers to to flexibly accommodate change for a required respond, recover, maintain or rapidly return to period dictated by the extent of a disturbance, and acceptable performance levels in the face of when a structural change is not yet required. disturbances, further adapt and to transform systems when needed” Confidence: Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and This definition emphasises the ability of urban consistency of evidence and on the degree of systems in Zimbabwe to absorb the negative agreement. Confidence is expressed qualitatively. effects of disturbances (through effective preparedness, response and recovery), adapt (by Coping ranges: the notion of coping ranges is making incremental changes required in the short derived from the climate change literature, to mid-term in anticipation or recognizing the sanctioned in particular by the Intergovernmental extent, recurrent and magnitude of disturbances), Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2012). It refers to but also, and critically, to transform deeply and the range within which a given system is able to reconfigure processes, institutions and regulations cope with variability of climate, and beyond which when the current configuration no longer enable (refer to critical thresholds) it becomes vulnerable cities to face disturbances effectively. In the and therefore susceptible of being negatively current context of Zimbabwe this is particularly affected. For the purpose of the URSA this concept important. is adapted to qualitatively indicate the extent to which urban systems – and people – in Zimbabwe Key concepts used by the URSA are coping with a range of shocks and chronic The URSA makes recurrent use of the following stressors, before being negatively affected beyond key concepts: their absorptive and adaptive capacities.

Absorptive capacities: Absorptive capacity is the Coping mechanisms (and strategies): the set of capacity to take intentional protective action and to individual, household and community mechanisms cope with known shocks and stress. It is needed as used to deal with an overwhelming or adverse shocks and stress will continue to happen, for series of events or conditions. Their viability in the example due to extreme weather events caused by short, mid and long-term is determined by the climate change, protracted conflict, and disasters levels of vulnerability and the impact of (Oxfam, 2017). disturbances experienced.

Adaptive capacities: The combination of the Critical thresholds: this concept is directly linked strengths, attributes, and resources available to an to the notion of coping ranges and is also derived individual, community, society, or organization from climate change literature and engineering. It that can be used to prepare for and undertake refers to the critical limit within a system that actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderate harm, induces a non-linear response to a given forcing. or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2012). For the purpose of the URSA, this refers to the Also, the capacity to make intentional incremental ‘tipping point’ beyond which urban areas – and adjustments in anticipation of or in response to people – are likely to be adversely affected by any change, in ways that create more flexibility in the given disturbance (forcing). While in design future (Oxfam, 2017). It is necessary because

20 engineering thresholds are defined numerically, in demonstrate a balance of seven qualities when urban resilience this is not possible. Reference to dealing with shocks and stressors. These are used critical thresholds in the URSA is only qualitative. extensively in the URSA to understand the dynamic capacities of urban systems in Zimbabwe Exposure: the presence of people, livelihoods, to deal with the shocks and stressors, in addition to species or ecosystems, environmental functions, the characteristics (or capitals) that determine its services, and resources, infrastructure, or sensitivity. They are: economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected (IPCC, 2012). For the purpose of the URSA population • Flexibility is the willingness and ability to enumerated by Census 2012 in urban areas is the adopt alternative strategies in response to basis for exposure. For the purpose of this report, changing circumstances or sudden crises. assets, resources and services are considered under Systems can be made more flexible through the sensitivity. introducing new technologies or knowledge, including recognising traditional practices. For Disaster risk: The likelihood over a specified time example, in times of crisis, cities may redeploy period of severe alterations in the normal public buses for emergency evacuations. functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous events interacting with vulnerable social • Inclusiveness: emphasises that decisions are conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, taken based on broad consultation and ‘many material, economic, or environmental effects that seats at the table’ to create a sense of shared require immediate emergency response to satisfy ownership and joint vision to build city critical human needs and that may require external resilience. For example, an inclusive early support for recovery warning system for everyone at risk will Disturbance. For the purpose of the URSA, it enable people to protect themselves and refers to both shocks and stressors, as described minimise loss of life and property. below. • Integration processes bring together systems Hazard is the potential occurrence of a natural or and institutions catalysing additional benefits human-induced physical event or trend or physical as resources are shared and actors are can work impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other together to achieve greater outcomes. For health impacts, as well as damage and loss to example, integrated city plans enable a city to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service take coordinated action against provision, ecosystems, and environmental multidisciplinary issues like climate change, resources. Also, this is a process, phenomenon or disaster risk reduction or emergency response. human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and • Redudancy refers to spare capacity purposively economic disruption or environmental degradation. created to accommodate disruption due to For the purpose of the URSA, the concept refers to extreme pressures, surges in demand or an three main interrelated characteristics: intensity external event. It includes diversity through (the strength of a hazard), frequency (the which there are multiple ways to meet a given probability of occurrence), and the location. need. For example, energy systems that incorporate redundancy could provide multiple Resilience qualities. Extensive research (Arup, 2014) has shown that resilient cities are able to

delivery pathways to accommodate surges in between these areas defined administratively and demand or disruption to supply networks. their rural hinterlands.

Safe failure, is a design feature or practice that in • Reflectiveness: Individuals and institutions that are reflective use past experience to inform the event of a specific type of failure, inherently future decisions. This may involve modifying responds in a way that will cause no or minimal standards and behaviours accordingly, for harm to other equipment, the environment or to example reflective planning processes are people. better able to respond to changing Sensitivity, is the degree to which a system is circumstances. affected, either adversely or beneficially. The effect may be direct or indirect. Indicators to assess • Resourcefulness: people and institutions can sensitivity are those to be found in the key recognise alternative ways to use resources at infrastructure, socio-economic, environmental times of crisis to meet a given outcome. conditions of a given context.

• Robustness: well-conceived, constructed and Shock: A ‘sudden event that impacts on the managed systems includes ensuring failure is vulnerability of a system and its components’. predictable, safe and not disproportionate to They are divided in two types: covariate shock i.e. the cause. For example, protective a collective shock shared by a large group of infrastructure that is robust will not fail people, e.g. a large disaster; and idiosyncratic catastrophically if design thresholds are shock, i.e. shock experienced only within a given exceeded. household or community. They can include rapid on-set disasters (an earthquake) and slow on-set Transformative capacities: the ability of the disasters, which builds-up progressively, surpasses system to perform structural change when required a ‘tipping-point’ and becomes an extreme event. A by the circumstance, and when critical thresholds drought is an example of slow on-set disaster are routinely or largely attained Stress: and the related stresses they induce, Urban system: Cities rely on the operation of a undermine the performance of a given system web of infrastructure, institutions, and information because of their cumulative and long-term effect. systems to perform essential functions every day. For instance, increasing average temperature Systems may be composed of physical ‘things’ induced by climate change progressively stress the such as energy infrastructure, roads and bridges, production of crops, which may increase prices of housing and shelter, or ecosystem services. They food, and generate food insecurity. Similarly, may also be non-physical processes/practices or corruption may undermine the capacity of a system behaviours such as labour standards and legal to deliver as expected. rights, building codes and standards, culture, community cohesion or social relationships. A Vulnerability: the propensity or predisposition to high interdependence of systems in cities can result be adversely affected. For the purpose of the in different systems supporting each other and on URSA vulnerability is a function of the character, the other hand, can result in cascading failure. For magnitude, and rate of several disturbances to the purpose of the URSA, urban systems refer to which urban areas and people are exposed, their the overall set of the twenty-four (24) sub-systems sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. functioning in the thirty-two (32) urban councils. However, reference is made to the linkages

Methodology

Guiding principles Research Implementation

While the research is comprehensive, specific The research was conducted from June to October attention was paid to the most vulnerable groups in 2019 in four consecutive steps: urban areas, which are likely to be disproportionately affected by adverse natural and Inception and set-up of the research protocol: human-induced shocks and stressors, because of June-July 2019. This phase was finalized after the their socio-economic conditions. first visit to Zimbabwe of the consultant team (10- 20 July 2019). The outcome of this phase included: The overall guiding principle to conduct the research questions and analytical framework research was to consider the implications of the defined; urban resilience definition adapted to the leave no one behind approach for urban resilience context; study-area identified; start of literature in Zimbabwe. By adopting the 2030 Agenda review. (United Nations, 2018), UN Member States committed to this approach in seeking to achieve Consultations and data gathering: July-August the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This 2019. The outcome of this phase included: initial implies focusing on vulnerable countries, including consultations conducted with the UN; Academia; African countries, least developed countries, NGOs; UCAZ; Donors and individual informants landlocked developing countries, small island as described in Table 1: Summary overview of developing states, countries in situations of conflict research methods used for the URSA (Source: and post-conflict countries so that each of them can Authors, 2019) Urban Resilience Framework for enjoy sustained, inclusive and sustainable Zimbabwe defined, with 24 sub-systems; initial economic growth and social progress. In countries urban council-level workshops conducted; data this implies that all people, regardless of their from Census 2012 and Service Level Benchmark backgrounds, have rights and responsibilities to (SLB) obtained; Hazard data reviewed; Literature fulfil their potential in life, and lead decent, review continued. dignified and rewarding lives in a healthy environment.

For the purpose of this report, this principle was used to ensure that perspectives are captured of people living in poverty and other vulnerable situations to the extent of possible (refer to Research limitations), including “children, youth, persons with disabilities, people living with HIV/AIDS, older persons, indigenous peoples, refugees and internally displaced persons and migrants”.

Desk-based data analysis and data-gap filling: 2019); in focus-groups (11-14 October); and September-October 2019. This phase was finalized national validation workshop (15-16 October after the second visit to Zimbabwe of the 2019) in Harare, including strategy formulation; consultant team (10-20 October 2019). The preparation of a strategy inception report for outcome of this phase included: analysis of UNDP and UNICEF analysis. available data; key-findings and URSA draft preparation; validation of interim findings with HH Draft finalization and sharing: October 2019. The Minister of Local Government, Public Works and outcome of this phase included: finalization of the National Housing (MLGPWNH) (10 October draft of URSA for discussion and publication

Figure 2 Urban councils consulted in local workshops. The Harare workshop was also attended by Chitingwiza, Epworth and Ruwa (Source: Authors, 2019, with MapBox image)

Purpose of the URSA concepts’ in this section. The method was applied as follows:

The purpose of the URSA is to provide the • Identifying relevant indicators to assess evidence required for initiating integrated urban verifiable characteristics of urban systems resilience programming in urban areas of (What to measure). This was done by a) Zimbabwe by the National and Local Authorities review the City Resilience Index6 . E.g. and multiple stakeholders. The URSA findings and ‘Availability of safe, potable water’ is one recommendations will inform an Urban Resilience of the key characteristics to determine Roadmap to guide integrated interventions of sensitivity levels in urban-systems; b) multiple actors in Zimbabwe in building urban adapting the characteristics to resilience. Zimbabwean urban context e.g. Adding ‘Extent of informal employment’ as a Research methods applied critical characteristic for the urban local

economy in Zimbabwe This report used qualitative, quantitative and semi- • Creating an inventory of quantitative data quantitative methods, summarised in Table 1: available in Zimbabwean cities (What is Summary overview of research methods used for being measured in Zimbabwe). This the URSA (Source: Authors, 2019) to study urban included: a) Service Level Benchmarks resilience in Zimbabwe. data (2016), Census (2012) and ZimStat reports published between 2014 and 2017; In particular, the following mutually-supporting b) Assessing appropriateness of data by methods were used to back-up qualitative analysis scale of data collection and confidence e.g. with quantitative and semi-quantitative data: data in several ZimStat reports is only collected at provincial scale 1. Multi-Criteria Indexing. The purpose of this • Developing indicators for resilience method is to provide an overview of the characteristics from quantitative data. This current sensitivity of urban councils against involved the use of 52 data points from socio-economic, infrastructure and services inventory and environmental characteristics, using 52 • Determining performance benchmarks and indicators for 24 sub-systems for 32 urban thresholds by a) Normalising the dataset - councils5 as a basis for a) delivering a semi- using a score of 1 (very high) to 5 (very quantitative analysis of risk levels in 2019 and low) to communicate sensitivity levels for 2050; b) complementing the qualitative each characteristic; b) Identifying analysis of each sub-system with quantitative performance benchmarks – Matching a data on urban-system ‘characteristics’ relevant quantitative benchmark to score of 5, using to resilience, as described in the ‘Key Service Level Benchmark standards or

5 Initially, the multi-criteria index counted 94 indicators. comprehensive tool that helps cities understand and However, data in Zimbabwe was only available at the measure resilience in a systematic and holistic way. time of writing for 52 data-points. 6 Developed by Arup with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, the City Resilience Index (CRI) is a

World Bank quantitative databases; c) to city functioning and ultimately people’s Determining performance thresholds – wellbeing. This was defined during the Identifying quantitative thresholds for consultation and analysis phase (July- scores of 2-5, based on distribution of data September 2019); among 32 urban councils, or distribution • Developing a research questionnaire for of global data on that indicator each sub-system that defines ‘what good • Consolidating indicator scores to system looks like’ and lists ‘characteristics’ of by determining an aggregate sensitivity resilience in selected sub-systems to help score for all systems based on an average the researchers to a) describe the strengths of constituent indicator scores and weaknesses observed in the system; b) • Multiplying the consolidated scores analyse the potential for resilience of the against a) shock and stressors values sub-system; assigned by specialists for each urban • Analysing each of the sub-systems in the council, based on the review of available key dimensions to identify a) current data, literature and consultations on shocks observed performance; b) current observed and stressors as described in chapter 3; b) sensitivity (through analysis of quantitative projected changes in shock and stressors data) and resilience behaviours (through values given climate change scenarios, as qualitative analysis and reference to the described in chapter 3. seven qualities of resilient systems) for absorbing, adapting and transforming in 2. Urban Resilience Framework Profiling. The the presence of disturbances; c) observed purpose of this method is to provide a structure interdependencies across systems and the for the analysis and understanding of urban mutual effects in case of failure as complexity, accounting for strengths and explained further hereunder in this section; weaknesses that the city may want to address d) identify opportunities to be leveraged in order to build resilience. This analysis also for building urban resilience enables setting out ‘goals’ that are essential for • Profiling resilience across the key resilience performance. This method was dimensions through a semi-quantitative applied as follows: score to facilitate visualisation and • Reviewing global practices to establish an communication of results. urban resilience framework adapted to the context of Zimbabwe but informed by 3. Interdependencies network analysis. The global practice. In particular, the URSA purpose of this method is to provide an reviewed the City Resilience Index (CRI) understanding of the complexities affecting the that was developed learning from 28 performance of networked sub-systems in diverse cities globally. The proposal was urban areas of Zimbabwe. This was done by discussed during the inception and studying how one sub-system (e.g. water) may consultation phase (June-July 2019); affect other sub-systems (e.g. health; eco- • Defining four (4) key dimensions that system and environment) and in turn being include physical, socio-economic, and influenced by a third sub-system (e.g. regulatory processes and assets in urban municipal finance; urban governance). Sub- areas of Zimbabwe (Refer to Chapter 4). systems in urban areas imply optimal Further dividing these dimensions in functioning of other sub-systems that are twenty (24) sub-systems that are essential networked as well as the ability to fail safely to

prevent a ‘domino’ effect, or ‘cascades of b) specific urban systems (focused) failures’ on other sub-systems, as described in analysis ‘Key Concepts’ in this section. While some • Network visualisations (Figure 1) were urban programmes on WASH and food then generated through quantitative security in Zimbabwe appreciate this statistical analysis, and quantitative complexity, a comprehensive appreciation of metrics describing the networks properties the interdependency of urban systems was can also be produced. Here we used undertaken within URSA. The purpose of this indegree and outdegree measure. is to help urban practices in Zimbabwe to go beyond specialised interventions, that in themselves might deliver the intended outcomes but are unlikely to sustain long term resilience building. The method was applied as follows: • Reviewing how 24 sub-systems in 4 dimensions currently functions to support the well-being of urban citizens, particularly the vulnerable communities that are highly dependent on a functioning place. This was done through consultations, literature and data analysis. Figure 3 System network analysis visualisation by URSA (Source: Authors, 2019 • Identifying the specific interlinkages7 amongst the 24 urban sub-systems in order to a) Understand the ‘centrality’ of the given urban sub-system in terms of the direct influence that other systems have on it (in-degree centrality) and the direct influence that it has on other systems (outdegree centrality). • Analysing the interdependencies between urban using Kumu software (https://kumu.io/). Using social network analysis, this software analyses the relational structure of systems each according to its relationship with others. The network analysis was carried out on two levels a) whole-network analysis and

7 Systems analysis (Bentley LD, 2007) is a problem- applied to the urban context of Zimbabwe it provides an solving technique that isolates a system into its account of how performance in one sub-system may component pieces to studying how well those positively or negatively affecting another sub-system, component parts work and interact to accomplish their and therefore what strategic intervention should be purpose. System-thinking is critical in urban resilience: prioritized and in which sub-systems

Quantitative and semi-quantitative analysis Qualitative Analysis

2 workshops (Consultation in July 2019 and validation of findings in Multi-Criteria Indexing with 52 indicators for 24 sub-systems using October 2019); 7 focus groups with NGOs, UCAZ, Academia, Donors SLB and ZimSTAT Bennchmarking (with CPI and global references) and Ministries; 20+ bilateral interviews at national level in 2 visits to for 32 urban councils - refer to Chapter 4 and 5 Zimbabwe, involving approximately 160 individuals - All chapters

Hazard and Stressor qualitative assessment with semi-quantitative 10 workshops in sample cities* (*In Harare representatives definition of levels (1-5) to define risks and vulnerabilities in 2019 participated from Chitungwiza, Epworth and Ruwa) involving and 2050 in 32 urban councils - refer to Chapter 3 and 5 approximately 250 people in total - All chapters

Climate change projections applied to each of the 32 urban councils Desk-review of academic, grey and professional literature (over 500 urban area, with semi-quantitative (1-5) definition of expected levels sources) as well as satellite imagery reading - All chapters of change in the future - refer to Chapter 3 and 5

Urban Resilience Framework to profile the resilience performance of 32 urban councils based on the available quantitative data collected Review of interdependencies across 24 urban sub-systems and set- for the Multi-criteria index; expert analysis; consultations at national up of network analysis through software, based on consultation' and local level through semi-quantiative (1-5) scoring for 24 sub- findings and literature - refer to Chapter 4 and 5 systems in 4 dimensions - refer to Chapter 4 and 5

Figure 4 Summary overview of research methods used for the URSA (source: authors, 2019) Study limitations representative as much as possible in city-level The core of the study was conducted between July workshops; and October 2019, and worked with available The broad scope of the urban context allows only information as of August 2019, with the exception for high-level review of key issues. Mitigated by of information from the August 2019 ZimVAC focusing on resilience aspects and referring to report, which was shared with the team in October more detailed sectoral reports where available; 2019. The URSA was conducted with the following limitations: Availability and accuracy of quantitative data, as described in detail in Chapter 5 limited the extent Limited time and capacity to involve and interview to which the Multi-Criteria Index could be communities during the team visit to Zimbabwe in completed. SLB data obtained was from 2015; and July 2019. Mitigated by involving community Census data from 2012 for several indicators; data for other indicators usually required or deemed

useful for urban resilience analysis was not The URSA will then presents detailed findings in available in Zimbabwe at the time of data chapter 5. Chapter 6 concludes with collection or were not shared with the team. No recommendations for action and way forward. mitigation possible, but key indicators were deemed sufficient to back the qualitative analysis.

Lastly, the URSA recognises that its scope focuses only on 32 areas officially determined as ‘urban’ (refer to Chapter 2) but other areas may be functioning as urban systems. This is acknowledged in Chapter 2.

Plan of the Report The URSA is divided in five chapters, including the introduction (Chapter 1); Framing resilience within the urban context of Zimbabwe (Chapter 2); Shock & Stressors' Profile (Chapter 3); Urban Resilience Profile of Zimbabwe (Chapter 4); Findings and Recommendations to Build Urban Resilience in Zimbabwe (Chapter 5) and appendixes.

After establishing the analytical framework for Zimbabwe in Chapter 1, the URSA will then answer the question 'resilience of what?' in Chapter 2, by providing an understanding of the urban circumstances in the country, the typologies of urban settings and how they are currently regulated and managed.

Chapter 3 will then establish the complete profile of natural and man-induced shocks that may affect urban systems in Zimbabwe, as well as the nature of chronic and long-term stressors that affect urban settings, answering the question 'resilience to what?'.

With the characteristics of the urban systems defined in Chapter 2 and the disturbances that may plausibly affect them identified in Chapter 3, the URSA will now profile the potential for resilience of these systems, answering the question 'how resilient are urban systems in Zimbabwe currently?' in Chapter 4. a

Urban circumstances in Zimbabwe Overall political, economic and deepest peacetime contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with a fall of demographic context 50 per cent. The World Bank estimates Political Context GDP in 2018 was equal to that in Zimbabwe adopted a new constitution in 1965. Disruption caused by land 2013 and Robert Mugabe resigned as reform programmes and flawed president in November 2017. Emmerson macroeconomic policies generated Mnangagwa was formally elected as hyperinflation and led to a period of president following national elections in deindustrialisation and the collapse of July 2018. The new administration of agricultural and labour productivity. cabinet ministers, deputies and provincial Zimbabwe adopted a multicurrency ministers was sworn into office in regime in 2009 which contributed to September 2018. The country is double digit growth fuelled by high undergoing transition to fully reengage commodity prices and unconstrained with the international community, attract borrowing. However, following 40% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), restore GDP growth over three years to 2012, confidence in government and the the economic context declined due to a economy. Elections and the new fall in commodity prices; depreciation administration offered high hopes for of the South African Rand which reform in line with the “New Dispensation affected Zimbabwe’s competitiveness Core Values” which seek to achieve upper and cost of imports; credit restrictions middle-income status by 2030. Several due to proliferation of Non-Performing notable commitments and efforts to pursue Loans (NPLs) which accounted for 20 transition have been initiated, including per cent of loan books; and contraction The National Peace and Reconciliation of international capital flows due to Commission (NPRC) Act, Zimbabwe sanctions imposed the US and EU. In Human Rights Commission (ZHRC), and response, Zimbabwe pursued an the Transitional Stabilization Programme expansionary fiscal policy but without (TSP) which runs from October 2018 to the buffer of counter cyclical fiscal December 2020 with a focus on stabilizing reserves from the high growth years the macroeconomic situation and the which exacerbated the national debt, financial sector, introducing necessary fiscal deficits and led to foreign policy and institutional reforms that are currency shortages. GDP growth aimed at transforming the economy toward slowed to 3 per cent per year from private sector–led growth, and addressing 2013 to 2015. infrastructure gaps (GoZ, 2018); (IMF, 2019) (Jones et al., 2019) (World Bank, • Public sector exclusion from 2019). international capital markets led to expanded use of treasury bills and Macroeconomic Context domestic banks providing finance to • Zimbabwe is a middle-income country the trade deficit and public budget. The which was one of the most advanced creation of electronic deposits or Real- economies in the region but Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) in the experienced extreme economic decline banking system contributed to a from 2000 to 2009 that led to the significant increase in domestic debt

which stood at US$9 billion in rich endowment of minerals (e.g. December 2017. These measures diamonds, gold, platinum) operates sustained public spending but below it’s potential with 40 untapped destabilised the banking system, exploitable mineral deposits. The constrained liquidity and restricted question remains to what extent the lending from domestic banks to the former economic capacity has been private sector. completely eroded and whether it can be re-instated. • The subsequent economic downturn from 2018, shortage of foreign Several innovative and unconventional currency and utilisation of the strategies were deployed during the interbank foreign exchange market previous economic cycle, demonstrating lead to fuel shortages, labour unrest, considerable resilience. Dollarization of temporary company closures, the national economy was a very effective increased unemployment, expanded strategy in the short term, but in the trade deficits (27 per cent in 2018), absence of foreign reserve accumulation, increased inflation (31 per cent in proved to be a short-lived mechanism. The November 2018), and depreciation of surge in domestic bank lending to replace the bond dollar (from 1.12 in October international capital sustained public- 2018 to 10 in June 2019). Recent sector activity but had negative effects on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from private sector access to finance. The 2019 coupled with restrictions earlier renewed parallel currency highlights the this year on foreign currency indicate limitations of this mechanism. The current that the current economic trend scale of public debt, the volume of arrears continues downward. However, the to IFIs, along with the re-emergence of longer-term outlook maybe positive if parallel currencies and exchange rates the TSP goals and government’s indicates that the resilience capacity of the ‘Zimbabwe is open for business’ Zimbabwean economy is re-approaching campaign can be realised and thresholds previously experienced. The implement necessary reforms (IMF, need for macroeconomic stability is widely 2019; Kingsley & Moyo, 2019; (de highlighted and will have negative short- Vergès, 2018) (ICED, 2017) Jones et term effects as the short-term coping al., 2019; (World Bank, 2019) mechanisms are dismantled. However, significant opportunities still exist to bolster the resilience of the Zimbabwean • The former scale, depth and economy and mitigate these negative productivity of the Zimbabwean short-term impacts. economy indicates that enormous underutilised capacity and potential exists. Zimbabwe is now primarily an agrarian economy but with significantly lower productivity relative to its former role as a major agriculture exporter. The industrial base is operating well below its former capacity (e.g. 2017 employment in manufacturing declined to 25% of its 2002 levels). Similarly, Zimbabwe’s

Figure 5 Summary Of Zimbabwean Economic And Development Indicators (1980 - 2018) (Source: IMF, 2018) Demographic context in excess of 1 million. At the national level, the poverty rate declined from 72.3 per cent in 2011/12 to 70.5 per cent in The 2017 inter-census survey estimates the 2017. However, poverty is concentrate din population to be approximately 13.5 rural areas with only 30.4 per cent of urban million people, of which 52 per cent are households deemed poor (ZimStat, 2017). female and a comparatively young The very recently released Urban population with 40 per cent below the age Livelihoods Assessment by ZimVAC of 15, and only 6 per cent above the age of indicates that the declining poverty rate 65. Annual population growth is reported may have reversed, at least in urban areas, at 1.2 per cent versus outward migration of as food expenditure increased from 33.8 1.5 per cent over the decade from 2002 to per cent in 2016 to 48.6 per cent in 219 2012 (ZimStat, 2017). However, (ZimVAC, 2019). inconsistent periods of population growth and decline coupled with high levels of The Human Development Index (HDI) migration result in uncertain population assigned Zimbabwe a value of 0.535 in dynamics (Jones et al., 2019). 2017 and a ranking of 156th out of 189 countries which places Zimbabwe in the Shona speakers constitute approximately low human development category. Life 70 per cent of the population and mostly expectancy declined for approximately a occupy the eastern two-thirds of the generation from the early 1980’s but has country. Ndebele speakers account for recently recovered to levels approximately approximately 16 per cent of the similar to 1985 of ~61 years (World Bank, population. Christianity is the primary 2019). Infant mortality exhibits a similar religion which includes approximately 85 trend. The population is comparatively per cent of the national population well educated with literacy consistently (ZimSTAT, 2012). reported around 98 per cent and primary school completion rates around 46 per cent The overwhelming majority of the in urban areas (ZimSTAT, 2012). population live in rural areas which exhibit an increasing share of the population in contrast to most other middle-income countries which are urbanising. Harare is the largest and only city with a population

Figure 6: FigBritish Geological Survey with data from WWF and FAO (Placeholder) The watershed is 650 kilometres long and 80 kilometres wide, with the lowest points Geography, Climate and Environment corresponding with the Zambezi and Limpopo Geography river valleys (GoZ, 2014). Major drainage basins include the Zambezi, the Limpopo, the Save (or Subi), the Buzi and the Pungwe rivers, with Zimbabwe is located in central southern Africa, respective tributaries. These major rivers are all with most of its landmass laying at between 1200 transboundary and flow towards the Indian Ocean, m and 1600 m ASL (GoZ, 2014) (Brazier, 2015) along the coastline of Mozambique. Major bodies along the central plateau (Highveldt) and the rest of water include Lake Kariba and Victoria Falls (approximately 20 percent) below 900mt both on the western border with Zambia. The (Lowveldt). The country is landlocked by Kariba Gorge is dammed to form the massive neighbouring countries (Mozambique to the East, Kariba Reservoir (Beilfuss, 2012), which is the South Africa to the South, Botswana to the West largest artificial reservoir (by volume) in the world and Zambia to the North and North-west). Its with a surface area of 5,577 km2 and a live-storage boundaries are both political in nature and defined volume of 64,800 Mm3 (Intergovernmental Panel by the Zambezi River to the west and north; and on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001). Lake Chivero is the Limpopo River to the south which Zimbabwe of particular significance for Harare water sources. shares with Zambia and South Africa, respectively. Its total area is 390,757 square kilometres, The country's eastern part is mountainous with including bodies of water, and extends from 15°S Mount Nyangani as the highest point (2,592 mt) in and 23°S, and 25°E and 34° E (GoZ, 2014). the Nyanga National Park in Nyanga District. All major peaks are found in Manicaland, which is also the southernmost tip of the geologically active

Great Rift Valley. Landforms of significance for along the Zambezi River and deep river gorges in this report also include escarpments to the north central plateau.

Current climate and observed changes

Currently, Zimbabwe has sub-tropical (Cwb and Cwa) and hot semi-arid (BSh)8 climates prevalent respectively in the central belt and in the southern belt. The mostly sub-tropical climate is mitigated by the higher altitude of the plateau, thus sharing some characteristics with the oceanic climate.

Climate is heavily governed by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, in which warm moist air masses from the north and cool air masses from thesouth collide to produce the main rainfall season (GoZ, 2014) (Brazier, 2015) (Mamombe, 2016), and is influenced by the complex topography and orography. There are four recognizable seasons: Hot and dry season from Figure 7: Elevation map of Zimbabwe showing 32 urban area. mid-August to mid-November Source: Authors (2019)

8 8 That is Temperate with dry winter and warm summer s (Savanna, Dry) (Cwb) and hot summer (Cwa) and Arid with steppe and hot climate (BSh) throughout the year, W (Desert) according to the Köppen-Geiger classification system, illustrated in the table hereunder. However, these broad S (Steppe) classifications must be contrasted with geographic, orographic and topographic conditions of the country; h (Hot) and site-specific considerations made. This B (Arid) classification is liable to change overtime as a result of natural changes in climate, and human-induced climate k (Cold) change. n (With frequent 1st 2nd 3rd fog)

f (Rainforest) C (Temperate) s (Dry summer)

A (Tropical) m (Monsoon)

w (Savanna, Wet)

• Main rainy season from mid-November to significant impact on the predictability of the mid-March planting and harvesting seasons, with • Cool and dry season from mid-May to mid- consequences for food security; water availability August for human, agricultural and industrial use, and • Post rainy season from mid-March to mid-May production of energy, as well as direct influence on the likelihood and severity of storms and The average annual rainfall is 650 mm, with associated floods (OCHA, 2019) (UNDP, 2017) uneven distribution across the country. The (Mamombe, 2016). Southern Lowveldt belt receives less rain (350 to 450 mm per year) while the Eastern Highlands Mean monthly temperatures vary from 15° Celsius receive the highest (above 1000 mm) because of (C) in July to 24°C in November. Mean annual the monsoon winds blowing from the Indian Ocean temperature range from 18°C on the Highveldt to and Mozambique across the hilly area and 23°C in the Lowveldt. Lowest minimum resulting in intense orographic rainfall in the East, temperatures (7°C) are recorded in June or July with episodes of very intense rainfall associated. and the highest maximum temperatures (29°C) in Cyclone Idai in 2019 may be considered an October or November (GoZ, 2014). extreme example of this. Rainfall patterns in the However, significant changes in climate have been country are highly variable spatially, seasonally observed over the period spanning from 1980 to and on interannual basis (GoZ, 2014) (Mamombe, 2016). Major interannual variations are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Studies agree on that during the warm phase of ENSO (known as ‘El Niño’), rainfall tends to be depressed across much of the country, whereas the reverse is true for the cold phase (La Niña) (Mamombe, 2016). This is a very

w (Dry winter) a (Hot summer)

f (Without dry season) b (Warm summer)

a (Hot summer) c (Cold summer) b (Warm summer) d (Very cold winter)

c (Cold summer) T (Tundra) s (Dry summer) E (Polar) F (Eternal winter (ice D (Cold cap)) w (Dry winter) (continental))

f (Without dry season)

Figure 8: Wetland map of Harare. Source: Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe (2012). 2016 and for series starting in (; Beilfuss, 2012; and rainfall seems to have decreased in some GoZ and UNDP, 2018; GoZ and UNDP, 2017; areas and increased in others. The south and GoZ, 2015; Zimbabwe Meteorological Services south-eastern areas as well Zambezi valley Department (MSD), 2011; UNDP, 2017) (IIED, have experienced more decrease. 2012) thus establishing new ‘normals’ for climate • Extremes: unpredictable rainfall patterns with in Zimbabwe, and causing the occurrence of longer dry-spells and intense torrential rains extreme events. Sources converge on the concentrated in fewer days are recurrent. following: Erratic patterns, with a late onset and early withdrawal of rains especially in the month of • Mean normal temperature has risen. November; as well as increase in frequency Temperatures have risen in average, with dry spells within the rainy season (mid-season) maximum rising more than the minimum. and reduction of rainy days but increase of Temperature have increased between 1901 and days with more intense rainfall. 2012 in average of 2.6°C with a significant • Extreme climatic processes. The interaction of increase since 1980. Some regions have the factors mentioned above have also resulted warmed more than others, i.e. stations by in heatwaves, more intense storms with urban settings in the Lowveldt such as associated intense rainfall, floods and stronger Beitbridge and Victoria Falls, and less in the winds, as well as hailstones, late onset and Highveldt (Chipinge) early withdrawal of rain, resulting in extended • Extremes: higher number of hot days. In droughts. Faster rates of water evaporation addition to the increase in mean temperatures, were also noted, with as much as 11% of the more hot days have been also recorded over mean annual flow of the Zambezi evaporates similar time slices, suggesting an increase in from large reservoirs associated with extreme temperatures. hydropower dams. Observed and potential • Normal rainfall patterns have shifted, with an impact of these changes, as well as projections observed reduction of 5 percent across the with significance for urban resilience in country. Spatial distribution of change varies, Zimbabwe are discussed in chapter 3.

Environment, eco-systems services and which covered 41.24 percent of the landmass in trends 2008, and net increase of 13.76 percent since 1992, mostly to the expense of forest. Land-cover also includes human settlements expanding across Zimbabwe is endowed with rich natural resources, agricultural land, woodland, forests and wetlands both over and under the crust, including forests, alike. According to the Government of Zimbabwe, water, minerals and biodiversity; although their the protected area network – including national spatial distribution varies significantly, especially parks, wildlife estates and gazetted forests, in what concerns water (Ministry of Environment, conservancies and Communal Areas Management Water and Climate, 2015). Three biomes Programme for Indigenous Resources characterize the land-cover (FAO, 2001): savanna, (CAMPFIRE) – constitutes 28 percent of the total grasslands (bushveld) in most of the south, and land area (GoZ, 2014a), of which some are forests in central and eastern areas (especially transfrontier. Significant biological corridors mountains). Major river basins landscape is include the Hwange-Sanyati corridor, in which sit significant in the Zambezi River Valley, and urban areas such as Hwange, Lupane, Chyreya and i wetlands are found in several regions, including in Kariba. In 2008, 67 percent of the forest was under Harare (Error! Reference source not found.). communal or resettlement and commercial areas Land-cover overall is predominated by cultivation, land tenure regimes (GoZ, 2014a).

Figure 9 Mineral of Zimbabwe and protected areas. Source: screenshot from Ecosystem conservation and restoration initiatives in Zimbabwe, Chip Chirara – Biodiversity Coordinator, Livingstone – 15 May 2014

The country possesses significant biodiversity and distinct ecoregions as illustrated in Table 1.

Table 1 Ecoregions of Zimbabwe and urban areas. Adapted from Sawe (Ecological Regions Of Zimbabwe, 2017)(Ecological Regions Of Zimbabwe, 2017)

Ecoregion Type

Kalahari Acacia-Baikiaea Woodlands Terrestrial

Southern Africa Bushveld Terrestrial

Southern Miombo Woodlands Terrestrial

Zambezian Baikiaea Woodlands Terrestrial

Zambezian Mopane Woodlands Terrestrial

Eastern Zimbabwe Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaic Terrestrial

Zambezi River-Lowveld Freshwater

Zambezi River-Mulanje Freshwater

Zambezi River-Eastern Zimbabwe Highlands Freshwater

Zambezi River-Zamebzian Plateau Highveld Freshwater

Zambezi River-Middle Zambezi Luangwa Freshwater

The country can be divided in five (5) main Agriculture Organization of the United Nations agroecological zones according by the Food and (FAO) (2006), each with different suitability for

agriculture, based on the rainfall regime, soil still referred in the National Climate Change quality and vegetation among other factors. These Response Strategy (GoZ, 2014). However, as are summarised in Table 2 below with urban areas discussed above, changes in climate have altered over-laid for ease of reference. These natural the rainfall regime and temperatures, with regions have not been updated since the consequences on moisture and other factors that publication, which used data from 1999 and were may alter this zoning.

Figure 10 Urban areas of Zimbabwe (red dots) and Natural Regions of Zimbabwe (Sources: Arup, adapted from FAO (2006)

Table 2 Natural Regions of Zimbabwe and list of urban areas (Source: Adapted from FAO, 2006) Natural Area % of total Annual rainfall Farming Systems List of urban Region (000 ha) land area areas per (%) natural region

(mm)

I 613 1.56 > 1 000. Rain in all Suitable for dairy farming Chipinge months of the year, forestry, tea, coffee, fruit, Mutare (partly) relatively low beef and maize production temperatures

IIA & B 7 343 18.68 700-1050. Rainfall Suitable for intensive Bindura confined to summer farming, based on maize, Cegutu tobacco, cotton and livestock Chinoyi Chitungwiza Epworth Harare Kadoma (partly) Karoi Marondera Mvurwi Norton Rusape Ruwa

III 6 855 17.43 500-800. Relatively Semi-intensive farming Gokwe high temperatures and region. Suitable for Kadoma infrequent, heavy falls livestock production, (partly) of rain, and subject to together with production of seasonal droughts and fodder crops and cash crops KweKwe severe mid-season dry under good farm spells management Mutare (partly) Redcliff Gweru Shurugwi

IV 13 010 036 33.03 450-650. Rainfall Semi-extensive region. Bulawayo subject to frequent Suitable for farm systems Lupane seasonal droughts and based on livestock and severe dry spells resistant fodder crops. Masvingo during the rainy Forestry, wildlife/tourism season Plumtree Victoria Falls Zvishavane

V 10 288 26.2 < 450. Very erratic Extensive farming region. Beitbridge rainfall. Northern low Suitable for extensive cattle Chiredzi veldt may have more ranching. Zambezi Valley is rain but the infested with tsetse fly. Chirundu topography and soils Forestry, wildlife/tourism are poor Kariba

As in other sectors, Zimbabwe has articulated area (28% of the total land) is the major repository policy and legal instruments to protect the of plant and animal biodiversity. Zimbabwe has environment and prevent the overexploitation and intensified efforts at conserving biodiversity depletion of eco-system services (Chirara, 2014). through participation in five trans frontier Environmental rights were elevated in the conservation areas. (Ministry of Environment, Constitution of Zimbabwe (gazetted on 22 May Water and Climate, 2015) 2013, section 73) from the existing Environmental

Management Act (Chapter 20:27) of 2002, which already streamlined environmental management, monitoring and compliance issues, and tightened regulations regarding Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) for all old and new projects (Maponga, 2003). The Environmental Management Agency (EMA) was also established as statutory body responsible for ensuring the sustainable management of natural resources and protection of the environment, the prevention of pollution and environmental degradation, the preparation of Environmental Plans for the management and protection of the environment [EM Act, Chapter 20:27]. The EMA shares responsibilities with LAs with relevance for urban resilience: including environmental licensing or permits; soil testing; monitoring of pollution; waste management licensing among others (EMA, 2019)9. It also plays a professionalisation role in environment in that offers registration of professionals and practitioners in the Environment sector. Zimbabwe also adheres to global treaties and has taken steps to mainstream environment into sectoral or overarching policies such as the National Energy Policy; Zimbabwe National Gender Policy (2013-2017); Water Resources Policy & Strategy (2013). Zimbabwe’s protected

9 https://www.ema.co.zw/about-us/services

Table 3 Laws and policies relevant for environment in urban areas. Source: adapted from Low-Carbon Emission Strategy , GoZ, 2019, unpublished Instrument Purpose/Focus area on environment and Climate Responsible authority change NCCRS (2014) Create a Climate Change resilient nation by promoting MAWCLRR sustainable development and a Climate proofed economy through mainstreaming Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in socio-economic development at national and sectoral levels through multi-stakeholder engagement. National Provide economic instruments to improve resource and Ministry of Environment and Environmental Policy energy efficiency Tourism and Strategies (2009) Promote use of clean energy sources Industrial Promote environmentally sustainable industrialisation Ministry of Industry and Development Policy Commerce (2012) Science, technology Provide scientific solutions to global environmental Ministry of Higher Education, and Innovation Policy challenges Science and Technology (2012) Constitution of Environmental rights, prevention of pollution to be GoZ Zimbabwe Chapter 4 guaranteed by the state Section 73 Environmental To provide for the sustainable management of natural Ministry of Environment and Management Act resources and protection of the Environment; Tourism (Chapter 20:27, 2002) prevention of pollution and environmental degradation; Urban Councils Act Establishment and regulation of local authorities and Ministry of Local (Chapter 29:15) their function Government, Public Works and National Housing (MLGPWNH)

However, the enforcement of regulations remains 2010 and 2014. GoZ efforts have curbed wanting in the current context, and significant deforestation to 100,000 and 150,000 hectares per environmental degradation trends are observed at year after 2015 (Mohadi, 2019) (UNDP, 2015). national level and urban areas. Between 1990 and The Global Environmental Performance Index10 2017 a total of 8.3 million hectares of forest were (Wendling, 2018) ranks Zimbabwe with a score of destroyed. (World Development Indicators, 2019) 43.41 – as an average of ‘environmental health’ Over the past two decades deforestation reached and ‘ecosystem vitality’ (Figure 10), thus placing 330,000 hectares of land cleared yearly between the country at 149th place out of 180. This ranking

10 The 2018 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) performance, gives insight on best practices, and ranks 180 countries on 24 performance indicators across provides guidance for countries that aspire to be leaders ten issue categories covering environmental health and in sustainability. The EPI is produced jointly by Yale ecosystem vitality. These metrics provide a gauge at a University and Columbia University in collaboration national scale of how close countries are to established with the World Economic Forum. The 2018 EPI was environmental policy goals. The EPI offers a scorecard produced with support from the McCall MacBain that highlights leaders and laggards in environmental Foundation and Mark T. DeAngelis. https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/about-epi

42 is underpinned by a variety of trends relevant to urban areas, which are discussed in detail in Chapter 4.

Figure 11 Excerpt from the EPI Country Profile Zimbabwe (0 = worst; 100 = best) Source: EPI, 2018 https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2018-zwe.pdf

Defining urban systems in Zimbabwe local boards, municipal and town councils; It is the prerogative of the president according to the Definition of urban areas in Zimbabwe and constitution to declare towns and cities in scope of the URSA Zimbabwe. Harare and Bulawayo constitute the In Zimbabwe, ‘urban’ areas are defined by size and largest metropolitan areas as described in section administrative role. Settlements can be considered 269 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe Amendment as urban when they have a) of minimum of 2500 (No.20) Act, (2013). Harare, is the capital city and people majority of whom are occupied in non-farm has the largest contribution to the total population employment, b) are designated as urban. of 16% (ZimStat, 2012). It has three satellite towns, that is, Chitungwiza, Ruwa and Epworth. Currently, there are 32 urban areas in Zimbabwe. These, together with Harare, constitute the Harare These are officially classified at four levels: Cities, Metropolitan Province. Municipalities, Town Councils and Local Boards as listed in Figure 11 and illustrated in Figure 13 The history of urban development in Zimbabwe and Figure 14. The main characteristics by can be considered from both a temporal and a population and functions are summarised in Table spatial perspective (Munzwa, 2010). From a 6 in this chapter, and further characterisation used for the URSA is provided in Appendix A. The Urban Councils Act [Chapter 29:15] provides for the establishment of municipalities and towns and the administration of municipalities and towns by Local Governance in Zimbabwe

Urban local authorities (32) Rural district councils (61)

Level 1: Cities Level 2: Municipalities Level 2: Town councils Level 1: Local boards Harare Redcliff Chiredzi Chirundu Bulawayo Chitungwiza Norton Macheke Gweru Chegutu Shurugwi Hwange Masvingo Victoria Falls Zvishavane Epworth Kwekwe Marondera Gokwe 4 Kadoma Chinhoyi Beitbridge Mutare Gwanda Rusape 7 Bindura Karoi 9 Chivhu Total urban centers: 32 Chipinge 61 Rural district councils Lupane Ruwa Mtoko Figure 12: Local Government System in Zimbabwe . Source: Authors, 2019, 13 adapted from Marume, 2015``

Figure 13 Hierarchy of urban centers. Source: GOZ, Habitat III, 2015 temporal standpoint, urban development can be seen to have evolved in three successive dispensations, namely: the pre-colonial, the colonial and the post-colonial era. It can be noted that in each of these time periods, city development was a function of the political ideology of the time, population size, institutional and legal frameworks as well as the major economic activities (Chigwata, et al. 2018). Notable urban settlements evolved during the colonial era from military forts, established along the route of entry followed by the pioneer column, under the British South Africa Company. These urban areas include Tuli, Masvingo, Chivhu and Harare.

The establishment of supportive infrastructure, (roads, railway lines and telegram lines as well as urban and mining centers) also catalyzed urban development (GoZ, Habitat III Report, 2015). Post-colonial government sought to provide housing for Black Zimbabweans who were side- lined by the existing housing policies (Chigwata, et al. 2018).

The Post-independence era was marked by deracialisation of both urban and rural settlement systems using what is referred to as ‘one city concept’, which attempted to remove development barriers which were based upon racial lines. The intention of Government was that the service centers (growth points) would graduate into towns over a period of 15 years. Figure 12 shows the hierarchy of urban centers according to GoZ (Habitat III Report, 2015).

Figure 14 Locations of Urban Councils/Areas in zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019 with Mapbox basemap

In the government classification of levels of settlements, “growth points” are normally district service centers that have grown close to town status, provincial capitals are those which harbor all administrative offices of the provinces such as, Harare, Bulawayo, Gwanda, Chinhoyi, Gweru, Bindura, Marondera, Mutare, Masvingo.

The spatial form and morphology of the Zimbabwean urban areas, as they appear today, is in its majority still defined by the inception designer (Munzwa & Wellington, 2014) that demonstrate a historic adherence to master- planning practices in the country. Recurrent street patterns and morphologies for most urban areas, and their relevance for resilience planning are summarised in Table 8.

Table 4 Historic Phases of urban development in Zimbabwe Sources: (Munzwa & Wellington, 2014), (ICED, 2017); Authors, 2019

Pre-colonial Colonial Post-colonial Scattered and Key European urban settlements New government sought sparsely evolved under British South implemented de- populated rural Africa Company racialisation in urban settlements and Originated from military forts and rural settlement city states and routes of entry followed by systems- removing Economic the pioneer column and further development barriers, activities were observing diversification from providing housing to based on primary to secondary sectors as black Zimbabweans and primary well as increasing demand for acquiring peri-urban sources- housing along with urban land for urban growth. farming, limited labour. Intention to establish trade, Established supportive new services centres and construction, infrastructure (roads, railway growth points to etc. lines and telegram lines) as well graduate to become new City state were as urban and mining centers towns and facilitate later deserted. (Munzwa, 2010) also catalyzed decentralisation. urban development. Further, district centres Cities planned along racial lines, were designated leaving indigenous populations (including from the out and emergence of dormitory growth points) in each towns like Chitinguiza for of the country’s districts labour housing. Increase in rural to urban migration and emergence of informal settlements Examples: Great Examples: Harare (Salisbury); Examples: Sanyati; Nkai; Zimbabwe; Khami; Bulawayo; Gweru; Mutare; Kwekwe; Tsholotsho; Maphisa; Mataga; Dhlodhlo Zvishavane; Mashava; Kwekwe; Ngundu; Gutu; Rutenga; Jerera; Kadoma; Chegutu; Chinhoyi; Nyika; Chisumbanje; Masvingo; Marondera; Kariba; Hwange; Murambinda, Birchnough Bindura; Mvurwi; Chiredzi; Triangle Bridge; Wedza; Hauna; Mutoko; Murewa; Madziwa; Muzarabani; Mushumbi Pools

Urban Form

Most of the 32 designated urban areas are located on unchallenging terrain and many on strategic axes and follow good urban design principles. The analysis of prevalent street and block patterns reveal the potential for vertical densification processes and road width and connectivity enable access/egress of emergency services. However, there are increasing trends towards unplanned urbanisation, sprawling of formally planned extensions underserved by infrastructure, and growth of informal settlements in peri- urban areas. This study emphasises the need to support resilience by tackling unplanned urbanisation and adopting contemporary urban planning principles that promote mixed-use and transport-oriented development that reduce cost of mobility, support local economic development and improve places.

Table 5 Summary of typical street patterns in Zimbabwe and significance for resilience. Source: Authors, 2019. Ground-figures prepared with MapBox

Table 6 Current Characteristics of cities. Sources: Authors, 2019 with ZimStat 2012 and Mbiba, B. 2017 with ZimSTAT data of 2002 and 2012. Urban Council 2012 Population 2002- 2012 Population trending Current Population change (%) Estimates

Bindura 42861 30 55719 Beitbridge 41767 90 79357 Bulawayo 653337 5 686004 Chegutu 50590 15 58179 Chinhoyi 68273 19 81245 Chipinge 25292 53 38697 Chiredzi 30197 17 35330 Chirundu 1911 10 2102 Chitungwiza 356840 10 392524 Epworth 167642 46 244757 Gokwe 23906 36 32512 Gwanda 20227 35 27306 Gweru 154825 12 173404 Harare 1485231 5 1559493 Hwange 33210 8 35867 Kadoma 92469 2 94318 Kariba 26009 15 29910 Karoi 28606 28 36616 Kwekwe 100900 7 107963 Lupane 2050 15 2358 Marondera 62120 20 74544 Masvingo 87866 26 110711 Mutare 186208 10 204829 Mvurwi 10548 30 13712 Norton 67591 54 104090 Plumtree 2148 18 2535 Redcliff 35904 12 40212 Rusape 30316 34 40623 Ruwa 56678 25 70848 Shurugwi 21501 30 27951 Victoria falls 33660 7 36016 Zvishavane 45230 28 57894

Table 7: Current Urban Functions. Source: Authors .

Cities

transit transit

other other

products / farming / products

- Urban Council Urban Provincial capital Capital District Mining / Manufacturing industry industries Informal Trade / Commercial center Educational Logistic services / town Tourism Agro production Energy town Dormitory ranching Cattle Beitbridge Y Y Bindura Y y Y Y Y Y Bulawayo Y Y y Y Y Y Y Chegutu Y Y Y Y Chinhoyi Y Y Y Y Y Chipinge Y Y Chiredzi Y Y Y Y Chirundu Y Chitungwiza Y Y Epworth Y Y Gokwe Y Y Y Y Y Gwanda Y Y Y Y Gweru Y Y Y Y Y Harare Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Hwange Y Y Y Y Y Kadoma Y Y Y Y Kariba Y Y Y Y Karoi Y Y Y Y KweKwe Y Y Y Y Y Lupane Y Y Y Y Y Marondera Y Y Y Y Y Masvingo Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Mutare Y Y Y Y Y Mvurwi Y Y Norton Y Y Plumtree Y Redcliff Y Y Rusape Y Y Y Ruwa Y Y Y Shurugwi Y Y Victoria Falls Y Y Zvishavane Y Y Y

Urban governance that ward. Elections to local authorities are provided for through section 277 where subsection 1(a) provides for mayors and councilors to be The local government system of Zimbabwe is elected concurrently with a general election of enshrined in chapter 14 of the Constitution of Members of Parliament and President for which Zimbabwe Amendment (No.20) Act, (2013). elections are supposed to be done after every 5 Section 274 (1) of the national constitution years according to section 144 of the same provides for urban local authorities who represent constitution. Subsection 1(b) of section 277 and manage the affairs of people in urban areas however provides for election of members other throughout Zimbabwe. Section 274 (2) proceed to than a general election, to fill one or more casual highlight that urban local authorities are supposed vacancies, as soon as practicable after the to be managed by councils which are composed of vacancies have occurred. councilors who are elected by registered voters in the urban areas concerned. Furthermore, these Furthermore, the elections of mayors and councilors are presided over by elected mayors or chairpersons of local authorities, other than mayors chairpersons. According to section 276 (1), local or chairpersons on whom executive powers have authorities have the right to govern, on their own been conferred under section 274(5), must be held initiative, the local affairs of the people within the at the first sitting of the councils concerned area for which they have been established. The following a general election. Thus mayors, constitution through section 276 (2) confers local chairpersons and councilors of local authorities authorities the power to make by-laws, regulations assume office on the ninth day after the or rules for the effective administration of the areas announcement of the results of the general election for which they have been established as well as to in which the councilors were elected according to levy rates and taxes and generally to raise section 277(3) of the constitution. Section 278 of sufficient revenue for them to carry out their the constitution regulates the tenure of seats of objects and responsibilities. members of local authorities where the seat of a mayor, chairperson or councilor of a local The legislative provisions for the different forms of authority becomes vacant in the circumstances set local government include: powers to elect out in section 129 which include dissolution of councilors and constitute local government; Parliament and resignation. Section 278 (2) also powers for planning and administration; and outlines the conditions for the removal from office powers to raise revenue and provide services. mayors, chairpersons and councilors where the reasons include: inability to perform the functions These are set out in the national constitution as of their office due to mental or physical incapacity; well as the Urban Councils Act (UCA). Councils gross incompetence; gross misconduct; conviction are set by means of proclamation by the President of an offence involving dishonesty, corruption or published in the Government Gazette as set out in abuse of office and willful violation of the law, section 4 of the UCA. The proclamation will including a local authority by-law. include the following information; the type of council, the name of the council, the area in which Section 9 of the national constitution provides for the council will operate, the number of wards in good governance wherein the State must adopt and the council. Councils are made up of elected implement policies and legislation to develop councilors whose selection is provided for in efficiency, competence, accountability, section 277 of the national constitution. Each ward transparency, personal integrity and financial has one elected councilor to represent the people of probity in all institutions and agencies of

52 government at every level and in every public councils, have provision for the role of a mayor, institution. It further outlines that appointments to while in town councils, local boards and rural local public offices must be made primarily on the basis authorities, the office of the chairperson is the of merit and measures must be taken to expose, equivalent as provided for in section 277 of the combat and eradicate all forms of corruption and national constitution. The Figure below shows the abuse of power by those holding political and local government system in Zimbabwe. public offices. The State is also mandated to ensure that all institutions and agencies of government at Municipal Finance every level, in particular Commissions and other bodies established by or under this Constitution, Officially, sources of municipal finance in are provided with adequate resources and facilities Zimbabwe include property tax, development levy, to enable them to carry out their functions user charges, license fees, intergovernmental conscientiously, fairly, honestly and efficiently. transfers, borrowing and income generating projects as provided for in the constitution as well The Urban Councils Act [Chapter 29:15] provides as in the urban council’s act (UCA). for the establishment of municipalities and towns and the administration of municipalities and towns According to section 223(1) of the UCA, local by local boards, municipal and town councils; authorities can cooperate with the state or any conferring of town and city status on growth other local authority or person and enter into points, municipalities and towns; declaration of partnership with private companies to bridge cash local government areas and the administration of shortage gaps. Section 131(1), allows local local government areas by local boards; as well as authorities to invest if they have surplus money conferring functions and powers and impose duties through various interest earning instruments with upon municipal and town councils and local boards registered financial institutions and treasury bills, and to provide for the establishment of the Local municipalities or any statutory body. Moreover, Government Board. section (80), provides for councils to operate income-generating projects of their choice to raise Section 4 of the UCA establishes the three legally revenue. recognized categories of urban local authorities, namely: municipal councils (including cities), town Furthermore, section 301(1) of the Constitution of councils and local boards - ranked in terms of Zimbabwe Amendment (No.20) Act 2013, states powers, finance and discretion. These are all that, government is supposed to give not less than housed under the Ministry of Local Government, 5% of national revenues raised in any financial Public Works and National Housing is the lead year to provinces and local authorities. According agency which provides the legislative and policy to section 290(1), Zimbabwean local authorities framework within which the local authorities can borrow money only for capital expenditure operate. These according to section 10 of the upon full consultation with the residents and RTCPA are local planning authorities in approval of the Minister. In addition, section (80), performing various planning functions. Urban allows councils to operate income-generating local authorities, particularly city and municipal projects of their choice to raise revenue.

Urban policies, regulations and land-use planning various substantive areas such as housing and context transport which also influence urban development in Zimbabwe. These include the National Housing Policy (2012) and the National Transport Policy Urban and regional planning in Zimbabwe takes (2012). place within the context of local government administrative arrangement as provided for firstly There are also town planning schemes and design by chapter 14 of the national constitution which set manuals which direct urban development with the out the provincial and local government system as Department of Physical Planning in 1997 well as in the RTCPA and the UCA. The legal and publishing ‘The Layout Design Manual which institutional context for urban planning in provides layout design guidelines for urban Zimbabwe is characterised by a variety of both development. Statutory instrument 216 was legal and policy instruments. These can be Acts of introduced in 1994 which partially deregulated parliament chief among which is the Regional industrial activities in residential areas. It Town and Planning Act [Chapter 29:12] of 1976 recognized legally a home as both shelter and later revised in 1996 which is the centerpiece of workplace. This piece of legislation minimized the system of town and country planning and exclusionary zoning. development control in Zimbabwe. There is also Key policies and acts include: the Urban Councils Act [Chapter 29:15] which through section 4 provides for urban local Regional Town and Country Planning Act authorities. There are also other allied Acts of (RTCPA) parliament which impinge on land use planning Part 2 of the RTCPA provides for regional and these include the Environmental Management planning in Zimbabwe wherein according to Act (EMA Act), Water Act, Roads Act, Mines and section 3(1) a regional planning council can be Minerals Act and Tourism Act. established after proclamation by president. It is Apart from Acts of parliament there are also this council which is responsible for preparing a statutory plans which are provided for through the regional plan which may cover urban areas. Part 3 RTCPA namely: regional plans, combination of the Act through section 10 defines the various master plans, master plans, local plans and layout planning authorities and their mandates. Master plans. Furthermore, there are also by-laws which and local plans are provided for through the can be enacted by urban councils as provided for provisions of part 4 of the RTCPA with part 5 of by part 17 of the UCA, chief amongst these is the the Act proceeding to provide for control of Model Building By-laws of 1977. The regulatory development by the various planning authorities. framework for land-use planning is also Subdivisions and consolidations of land are characterized by circulars which are usually in provided for through part 6 of the act. response to rising development pressure such circulars include Circular 70 of 2004. Apart from Urban Councils Act (UCA) the various statutory instruments that compose the Urban local authorities are provided for under part land-use and planning context there are also 2 of the UCA. Part 17 of the act goes on to strategic plans that shape the development highlight the various areas for which urban trajectory of cities in Zimbabwe such as the current councils can make by-laws as well as the vision 2025 for Harare City Council wherein the procedure that is supposed to be followed by urban city aims to transform Harare into a world-class councils when making bylaws. It is also through city by 2025. Finally, there are also policies in

54 the UCA that the sources of revenue for urban Circular 70 of 2004 local authorities are provided for and regulated. Circular 70 revised planning standards in line with Environmental Management Act (EMAA) densification. It set down the new standards for the planning and construction of infrastructure and This aims to provide for the sustainable houses in all urban areas in Zimbabwe. Reduced management of natural resources and protection of minimum stand sizes low-cost or high-density the environment; the prevention of pollution and housing from a previous 150 to 200 square metres environmental degradation; the preparation of a to 70 to 200. National Environmental Plan and other plans for the management and protection of the National Housing Policy (2012) environment; the establishment of an The government introduced the National Housing Environmental Management Agency and an Policy 2012 and the Zimbabwe National Environment Fund as captured in the preamble of Transportation Policy. National Housing Policy the EMA Act. Part 11 of the Act provides for promotes incremental development; introduces Environmental Impact Assessment, Audit and Public Private Partnership. It also introduces a Monitoring of projects for which urban participatory approach where CBOs are involved infrastructure projects are highlighted in the first in housing delivery schedule as requiring EIAs. National Transport Policy (2012) The Model Building By-laws of 1977 The Zimbabwe National Transport Policy has a These are provided for through section 232 of the main thrust is on environmental impact UCA wherein the Minister may publish in a assessment, social impact assessment, public statutory instrument model by-law providing for participation any of the matters specified in Part IV of the Third Schedule. These issues include: plans, specifications and structural calculations nature, design and appearance of buildings as well temporary structures and use of buildings.

Table 8 Summary table: urban policies, regulations and land-use planning instruments. Source: Authors, 2019 Name of the instrument Scope Regional Town and Country Regional plans Planning Act (PART 3 TO 5) Combination master plans Master plans Local plans Layout plans Development Control

Urban Councils Act Urban local authorities are provided for under part 2 Section 232 provides for the Model Building By-laws Provide for sources of finance for Urban Local authorities

Environmental Management aims to provide for the sustainable management of natural Act resources and protection of the environment Provides for the preparation of a National Environmental Plan and other plans for the management and protection of the environment; the establishment of an Environmental Management Agency and an Environment Fund as captured in the preamble of the EMA Act. The Model Building By-laws Building plans, specifications and structural calculations (MBBL) of 1977 nature, design and appearance of buildings a temporary structures and use of buildings.

revised planning standards in line with densification Circular 70 of 2004 Reduced minimum stand sizes low-cost (previous 150 to 200 square metres to 70 to 200.

National Housing Policy promotes incremental development (2012) introduces Public Private Partnership introduces a participatory approach where CBOs are involved in housing delivery focus on environmental impact assessment, social impact assessment, public participation

Decentralisation authorities must, within their spheres-- ensure good governance by being effective, transparent, accountable and institutionally coherent; assume Section 5 of the national constitution identifies only those functions conferred on them by this three tiers of government namely: the national Constitution or an Act of Parliament as well as Government; provincial and metropolitan councils; exercise their functions in a manner that does not and local authorities. According to subsection encroach on the geographical, functional or (ci,ii) of the same section urban councils are to institutional integrity of another tier of represent and manage the affairs of people in urban government. Section 268 of the constitution also areas; whilst rural councils are to represent and provides for provincial councils for all provinces. manage the affairs of people in rural areas within Moreover, section 269 proceeds to provide for the districts into which the provinces are divided. metropolitan councils with the mayors of both Devolution of governmental powers and Harare and Bulawayo being the chairpersons of the responsibilities is set out in the constitution of metropolitan council. Furthermore, section 271 Zimbabwe with section 264 highlighting that provides for committees of provincial and whenever appropriate, governmental powers and metropolitan councils for the better exercise of responsibilities are to be devolved to provincial their functions. According to section 272 (1a) of and metropolitan councils and local authorities the constitution at its first sitting after every which are competent to carry out those general election, a provincial council must elect a responsibilities efficiently and effectively. chairperson from a list of at least two qualified persons submitted by the political party which According to section 264 (1) the objectives of the gained the highest number of National Assembly devolution of governmental powers and seats in the province concerned. It is also important responsibilities to provincial and metropolitan to note that the Prime Minister’s 1984 Directive, councils and local authorities are to: to give powers further entrenched in 1996 through the Thirteen of local governance to the people and enhance their Principles of Decentralization adopted by Cabinet, participation in the exercise of the powers of the the government has accepted decentralization as a State and in making decisions affecting them; to governance system introducing development promote democratic, effective, transparent, coordination agencies at village, ward, district, accountable and coherent government; to preserve provincial and national levels in a bid to foster and foster the peace, national unity and bottom up planning. A summary of this is indivisibility of Zimbabwe; to recognise the right presented in Table 6. of communities to manage their own affairs and to further their development; to ensure the equitable In addition, local authorities should be able to sharing of local and national resources; and to provide and maintain public services and transfer responsibilities and resources from the infrastructure using funds generated from the local national government in order to establish a sound community and sometimes loans, donations and financial base for each provincial and metropolitan other sources (Government of Zimbabwe, 2015). council and local authority. The ‘Presidential guidelines on (Muchadenyika, GoZ, 2012)reinstate the importance of Section 265 of the national constitution proceeds to decentralisation, as a process and identify outline the general principles that are supposed to guidelines to advance. guide provincial and local government wherein provincial and metropolitan councils and local

Table 9 Summary of Key legal instruments supporting decentralisation. Source: Authors, 2019 Legal Instrument Structures Description The District Councils Act District Councils Decentralised power to districts 1980 Prime Minister’s Village Development Outlined the organizational structures Directives on Committees (Vidcos) through which communities at sub-district Decentralisation 1984 and Ward Development level fitted into the district local governance 1985 Committees (Wadcos) framework District Development Committees (DDCs) Provided the basis for a hierarchy of representative bodies at the village, ward, district and provincial levels Provincial Councils and Provincial Councils Section 270 constitution planning and Administration Act (1985) implementing social and economic development activities in its province; coordinating and implementing governmental programmes in its province; planning and implementing measures for the conservation, improvement and management of natural resources in its province;

Rural District Councils Rural District Councils Unified district and rural councils to form Act (1988) Rural District Councils Municipalities Section 270: administration of the areas for The Urban Councils Act Town councils which they have been established; (1996) Local boards a power to levy rates and taxes and generally to raise sufficient revenue for them to carry out their objects and responsibilities Constitution of Ministry of Local Government, Section 264 : governmental powers and Zimbabwe Amendment Public Works and National responsibilities must be devolved to (No.20) Act, (2013) Housing (MLGPWNH) provincial and metropolitan councils and local authorities

Overview of significant trends in urban areas of has increased in this period although Zimbabwe disproportionately across different areas. The URSA assesses 32 areas in Zimbabwe that are Currently in Zimbabwe there are a number of key designated as Urban Local Authorities. trends with relevance for urban resilience. This chapter covers an assessment of the status and Some key recent reports on urbanisation trends process of urbanisation in Zimbabwe, including the and consultation has suggested that the de- potential causes and effects of it on urban urbanisation trend may not fully represent the resilience. status of urbanisation of Zimbabwe. This According to Census data, the proportion of the could mask confounding factors in urban areas country’s population living in urban areas was like the redefinition of urban boundaries; very 33% in 2012, down from 35% in 2002 despite high influx of urban populations in smaller increase the overall population from 4,029,707 to urban areas and peri-urban areas and circular 4,284,145. This suggests an overall de-urbanisation migration trends. The drivers of urbanisation, trend in terms of the proportion of people living in include land-reform, which allocated land to areas that are designated as urban to people living urban uses in surrounding rural areas; the in rural/non-urban areas. This is broadly attributed demise of mining and industrial uses that to lack of employment opportunities in urban areas forced populations to relocate; and the forced due to marco-economic influences. It is worth relocation ignited by Operation Restore Order noting that the absolute number of urban dwellers in 2005 (Tibaijuka, 2005). Table 10 Intercensal % population change in urban areas. Source: Mbiba, 2017

For the URSA, the most critical aspect in Boundary mismatch urban resilience is the observed trends of circular mobility and the porosity between urban and rural areas. According to ICED (2017, with sources from Census 2002 and 2002 and aligned with (Mbiba, 2017) circular migration is a “common feature of urbanising societies, as new urban workers move back Population growth in peri-urban areas is and forth between cities and their villages and not accurately captured in census data. towns during harvest seasons, periods of Peri-urban areas that have subsumed climate pressure, political turmoil, or urban surrounding rural land are within economic downturns”. geographic spread of cities, yet the administrative urban boundaries for In Zimbabwe, below are some of the key census data have remained unchanged, urbanisation trends observed that make both leading to the growth in town extensions the determination of urbanisation trend and not being captured as ‘urban’. Caledonia planning of cities challenging. is one such example which functions as Demographic growth an extension of Harare, but is still considered as a rural area within Goromonzi District. Infra-city movement

Most urban areas except Bulawayo have seen an increase in total population. This is due to natural population increase- difference between rates of birth and deaths in cities or increasing number of Larger cities like Harare and Bulawayo people moving to urban areas vs moving have seen significant movement of people out of urban areas. The highest growth is within different urban neighbourhoods. seen in smaller towns like Ruwa and Increasing poverty and negative Epworth. Strategic located urban areas perception of Central Business Districts have mostly driven this growth either due have caused the poor to move to peri- to their proximity to larger cities like urban areas, as well as illegal and Harare for livelihood opportunities or on informal development, where costs are national borders like Beitbridge to take lower. Affluent populations have moved advantage of cross-border and domestic to suburbs and within gated transport. neighbourhoods. This has led to spatial concentration of poverty particularly in under-services planned areas and informal developments.

Outward migration Population movement between urban and rural areas is considered highly fluctuating due to a number of factors. Interannual and seasonal migration of people is observed seeking better Emigration trends have been reported economic activities between urban and from urban areas, especially highly rural areas. This is attributed to political, skilled nationals moving to other economic, climate and agricultural countries for economic activities. This is contexts (ICED 2019), especially in/from attributed as one of the causes of slower urban areas of Harare and Bulawayo. population growth in urban areas This is seen to mostly affect unemployed compared to rural areas in Zimbabwe. or underemployed youth. While this has caused a brain-drain in urban areas, it has also created supplementary incomes from remittances The key findings from these trends can be that are helping poor households get by. summarise as below: City to City • The headline of de-urbanisation from the 2002 and 2012 census contrasts the actual number of people that potentially rely on cities to live and work, leading to an under-estimation of the urban population. Urban areas like Epworth and Norton • There might be further underestimation of have significantly grown in residential numbers of people living in rural areas population without a proportionate that function like cities e.g. Caledonia. increase in economic activities making • Circular mobility impairs demand analysis them operate like dormitory towns. for services, reshuffling of social- Floating populations from these towns economic relationships makes targeting of exact burden on larger towns especially in programme activities difficult. the form of urban services that Urban local authorities need to provide such as waste and transport. They are also reported to create challenges in the form of economic competition particularly in unorganised informal markets. Circular mobility

Gender secondary schools drop out due to early marriage, The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 15 percent due to pregnancy, and 35 percent due to acknowledges the link between gender equality a lack school fees while 51 percent of boys drop and urban resilience. The vision of Sustainable out due to a lack of school fees. Transition to Development relies on both goal 11, which calls higher grades is lower amongst girls than boys and for urban areas to be inclusive, resilient and parity in terms of opportunities is far from being sustainable, and Sustainable Development Goal 5, attained. There are generally high levels of which highlights gender equality. More than 100 enrolment at primary level – with 94 percent of million women and girls around the world are girls and 93 percent of boys enrolled. Nationally, affected by gender inequalities associated with 2.7 percent of primary school-age girls are out of socio-economic and cultural traditions as well as school. Among the poorest quintile, this figure is their limited access to information in times of crisis noticeably higher at 4.3 percent. At adolescence, and disasters. Rapid global urbanization has girls’ struggle to access education becomes more created new challenges in accumulated and visible. While 98.4 percent of enrolled girls intensified risks, which require innovative and complete primary, only 80.5 percent transition to transformative changes in urban development to secondary school. Nationally, 20.1 percent of achieve safe, resilient and sustainable urban secondary school-age girls are not attending settlements for all (UN Women 2016). school; among the poorest quintile, this figure rises to 28.2 percent of secondary school-age girls that Women are particularly disadvantaged in are not in any form of formal education. Precise Zimbabwe due to their weaker control over figures on learners with disabilities are difficult to property and resources, over-representation in obtain, but it is estimated that more than half of all vulnerable employment, lower earnings and lower young people with disabilities that are of school- levels of social protection which make them, and going age have no access to education. their dependents more vulnerable to economic crisis (UNESCO, 2013). In Zimbabwe, only 14 The Zimbabwean National Baseline Survey on percent of women work in paid employment Life Experiences of Adolescents showed that about compared to 31 percent of men. Women comprise a third of females aged 18-24 years reported of 51 percent of unskilled workers in the economy. experiencing some form of sexual violence before According to the 2011 Labour Force Survey, 50.3 the age of 18. Among women aged 20-49 years, percent of those employed in informal enterprises 32.8 percent were married before the age 18. in Zimbabwe are women, and broad Women are affected by all forms of gender-based unemployment rates for females are higher than violence (GBV), which are physical, emotional and those for males of all ages except 60 years. For sexual. 58.2 percent of women reported having both sexes, unemployment rates are highest in the experienced one or more forms of GBV (ZimStat, age group 20-24 years, with approximately 20 Unicef, CCORE, 2011) percent unemployment. Gender equality in urban areas are determined by Girls’ limited access to education is fundamentally multiple interrelated factors including underpinned by pervasive gender inequality. This employment, education, health and safety. For manifests in myriad discriminatory and harmful example, in Zimbabwe, women and girls flood the social norms and practices including sexual abuse informal sector have largely turned to petty trading and early and forced marriage. The Education and vending to earn an income. Women traders Management Information System (EMIS) national with small children often have little choice but to data for 2014 shows that 20 percent of girls in work in areas where their children could be injured

62 by vehicles, and they must play and eat in unclean diseases. It also increases the burden on women environments, increasing their risk of contracting and children, with knock-on implications for their diseases and infections. Traders and their children health and activities such as schooling all of which also often suffer from respiratory problems has an effect on their ability to withstand future associated with traffic-related pollution. In hazards and disasters. Whilst the WASH sector has addition, women and children sometimes sought to give emphasis to gender issues, targeting experience crime and violence, including violence remains weak and women are not always from law enforcement agencies and authorities adequately represented in senior leadership and whilst working in the informal sector. decision-making levels. In terms of future actions, women, who constitute the majority of population Gender equality is also linked to sectors including and are custodians of household health and infrastructure, transport and the provision of public hygiene, should be the primary focus for sanitation services such as water and sanitation. and hygiene improvement programmes. These Infrastructure factors, such as poorly lit pathways programmes could be led either by the or pathways which are disaggregated from active Government of Zimbabwe, or development roads, lack of secure and safe sanitation services, organizations. lack of pedestrian spaces, transport systems favouring private vehicles, and lack of access to Research consistently shows that disasters public transportation, has impacted on women and disproportionally affect vulnerable groups, girls’ safety and mobility. Women are particularly particularly women. Adding to this, urban exposed to crime and violence in public spaces communities tend to be less socially cohesive than within urban areas. Poor lighting, dark streets, rural ones, providing people with fewer social dangerous public transport systems and inadequate resources to draw on in reducing risk or recovering policing increasing the risk of attacks in public from disasters. Under research completed by UN- areas. Women and girls are at high risk of Habitat to support a gender-specific lens on urban violence, verbal or physical harassment, resilience (UN-Habitat 2016), two components intimidation and death in cities like Harare, emerged which are women in resilience and Redcliff and Mutare, further increasing barriers for resilience for women. Women and girls in women and girls to access public spaces in these resilience highlights the need for urban systems areas. that promote women’s agency to enforce their rights, capabilities, resources and opportunities, to A recent report by Human Rights Watch on water make strategic choices and decisions within the and sanitation in Harare, Zimbabwe, identifies urban environment at an equal position to men. It violence at water sources as a significant barrier to is recommended that this gender-specific lens is accessing water. Tensions erupt as people stand in applied to all urban resilience programs in future. line for water, which often results in physical altercations, sometimes involving weapons. The Resilience is intersectional, with urban resilience report suggests that although the fights are requiring both equality and women’s participation generally between men, they particularly prevent as a fundamental and essential component. It is women and children from collecting clean water. recommended that actions promoting women’s In order to avoid violence, women reported that participation in urban governance decision making, they avoid going to boreholes and instead use be incorporated into all future Government of poor-quality tap water or walk to more distant Zimbabwe and development agency programs and sources in the hope of finding a shorter queue. This initiatives. exposes poor households to the risk of water-borne

Youth and children Violence against children remains a challenge in Zimbabwean youth, like many young people in the Zimbabwe. In 2018, Childline received a total of region, face challenges such as high 25,000 cases (15,000 through the helpline and unemployment rates, poor quality education and 10,000 through drop-ins). Of these cases, 66% limited educational opportunities, limited civic were protection related while 34% were welfare engagement opportunities, high HIV prevalence related (Childline, 2018 Annual Report). Sexual rates, teenage pregnancy, and early marriage abuse accounted for 26%, physical abuse 20%, (Zimbabwe Youth Council, 2015). neglect 17%, emotional abuse 17% and 20% other forms of abuse (Childline, 2018). Other challenges faced by youth include the exorbitant cost of education (of lesser quality), Child marriage also remains high, with 22% of 15- limited civic space for effective participation in 19-year-old girls and 2% boys reporting their economic and political spaces i.e. in parliament marital status as married (ZIMSTAT, 2012). and political parties, drug abuse, exploitation by Teenage marriage of girls (15-19 years) increased politicians for political violence especially during from 21% to 25% between 2009 and 2014, election time, youth migration, lack of clear meaning one in four female teenagers was married frameworks for youth development, with limited in 2014 (World Bank, 2017). development channeled through partisan lines There are substantial intersections between youth, (National Association of Youth Organizations, children and other systems in Zimbabwe, 2017). particularly in the areas of economic empowerment According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe and health. Given the limited economic (RBZ, 2015), the high unemployment rate has led opportunities that exist for youth in Zimbabwe, any to an increase in the crime rate, especially in urban additional economic shocks have the potential to areas. In Zimbabwean urban areas such as Harare, affect young people more adversely than other Bulawayo, Mutare and Chitungwiza, a measurable groups. Similarly, HIV response and other major number of youth have been involved in petty health issues need to be addressed in consultation thievery as they lack meaningful forms of with young people to ensure that solutions and livelihood. The RBZ further noted that the mitigations are appropriate and designed to incidents of white-collar crime including fraud maximize youth take-up. have been on the rise due to a lack of employment It is important to consider the agency and unique opportunities among the youth and the middle- insights young people can bring to discussions of aged population in Zimbabwe. urban resilience. It is critical that youth and Among children, those with disabilities face children are brought in to decision making specific barriers such as the physical inaccessibility processes if resilience is to be strengthened at all of schools and the limited capacity of schools to levels of society. In addition to formally including deliver disability-inclusive pedagogy. Girls with young people in decision making, there are three disabilities have a higher vulnerability to violence other routes to improving resilience – developing and greater challenges with menstrual hygiene confidence through knowledge; increasing management. State funding, e.g. Basic Education resilience through economic and personal security; Assistance Module that could narrow the inequities and strengthening leadership capacity and is effectively unavailable in urban areas. opportunities. Access, cost and quality of education remain significant barriers to improving resilience outcomes for young people in

Zimbabwe. In addition to government institutions (Chapter 2.1) and the shock and stressor profile taking steps to remove these barriers, the described in Chapter 3. Understanding resilience government could embed learning about urban and subsequently devise interventions, will require resilience in the school curriculum while non- informality and inequality to be used as key lenses. government organizations can increase knowledge sharing opportunities through programs and ensure The concept of informality is used throughout the young people are consulted on how the report to signify dealings and arrangements that government and NGOs should address urban evade formal regulation, control and resilience more broadly accountability. Its spatial and economic manifestations all have repercussions on urban Similarly, the government and NGOs should take resilience: steps to reduce youth exposure to economic shocks by investing in youth economic empowerment • The spatial dimension of informality in urban programs and addressing the underlying causes of Zimbabwe manifest in several manners. youth unemployment. Informal settlements with semi-permanent on non-durable housing are a typical For children to increase their resilience, it will be manifestation in the urban form (Table 5), important to build their confidence to express characterised by both unplanned urban form themselves in their home environment, and to seek and sub-standard service delivery. These exists support when they feel unsafe given the high rates in urban Zimbabwe in fringes of cities, or in of violence they experience. This could be spaces between formalised neighbourhood as achieved through school-based programs to illustrated in ground-figure. Another improve children’s knowledge about how to manifestation of spatial informality is found in protect themselves from abuse; additional child originally formal but run-down estates, and adolescent-friendly services and adolescent- Government-led pre-colonial housing, which focused sexual and reproductive health services; have lost quality. These are more often found and community-based children’s group sessions in peri-urban townships or in the inner city and focused on resilience and safety awareness are characterised by overcrowding and sub- (Suthanthiraj, 2019) standard or no services. These are also areas that host ‘ingrained’ poverty (ICED, 2017). An Finally, the government and NGOs in partnership even less apparent, yet increasingly diffused with families, local leaders and communities, form of informality is the development of should create a strong support network that housing on under-serviced areas nurtures a new generation of leaders, outside of (Consultations, 2019), with formally divided- partisan politics, who are able to command the stands acquired through informal dealing, or respect of both decision makers and their peers and outright forms of corruption (ICED, 2017) The represent the views of young people at critical result may even be a ‘formal-looking’ area, or moments. at least pockets of formal-appearing housing, which showcase relatively high income but, in effect, shares several characteristics of slums Informality and inequality as defined by the United Nations. It is crucial Informality and inequality and their spatial, social to understand that lack of durable housing or and economic manifestations are significant formal permanent housing does not aspects in the current urban systems in Zimbabwe, mechanically equate with deprivation and given the overall political and economic context

poverty. This is critical for targeting of urban settlements. But the relation is not univocal. For resilience actions. instance, the informal land-dealings that exclude • The spatial manifestation of informality in the poor and benefit the powerful protract urban Zimbabwe follows closely the different inequality; as do the informal acquisition of land stages of the political economy of the country for high income housing when they affect eco- and it is driven by both policy and economic system regulatory or provisioning services that drivers. There is a recurrent and widely may benefit all income-segments of the population. accepted discourse tracing the appearance (or Also, the economic and spatial status is highly ‘mushrooming’) of informal settlements – volatile and variable in urban Zimbabwe with the slums and squatters – in the year 2000, driven poor migrating to and from the city in relatively by the interplay of policies, macro-economic short time; informal settings gradually upgraded by turmoil, and relaxation of development control more successful households; or formal settings capacities (ICED, 2017) UN-Habitat in sliding into deteriorating conditions. For all these consultations, 2019; (Consultations, 2019) reasons, focusing the analysis on the urban poverty (Munzwa, 2010). This led to the ‘Operation manifestation of inequality may not yield the Restore Order’ in 2005, well documented by required impact in building urban resilience over the Tibajuka’s report (2005) attracted the long-term. Some of the aspects to be condemnation for the impact on the poor, and considered, mentioned recurrently in consultations the human rights’ abuse. Importantly, this (2019) in relation to urban resilience include: phenomenon is not only found in larger cities, • but also smaller ones such as Rusape and the higher cost, lower quality and coverage Nyanga and, unexpectedly perhaps Victoria (access) to basic services for deprived Falls and Kariba (UN-Habitat, (Consultations, populations (economic inequality) especially 2019) and often coincide with the phenomenon those living in under-serviced informal areas of urban sprawl which defies compactness (spatial inequality), in large, medium and even increasing costs of transport and service- small towns of the Country; while the delivery, and often encroaches on ecologically- association is not direct between poverty and sensitive land, as described in section 2.2 of tenure in informal areas, it is well documented this report. that slum dwellers do have higher expenses to access services, often resorting to unsustainable practices; • Informality manifest in all aspects of the urban • economy. More than 90 percent of economic the sub-standard level of protective activities happen outside formal regulation, infrastructure, including housing, lifeline according to consultations and literature buildings, drainage typical of new reviewed, and are governed by informal developments with no infrastructure; or network and power structures. In all informal settlements that reflect socio- consultations the need was voiced to economic inequity or the perverse effects of acknowledge, apprehend and accommodate informality in policies; informal economy • the spatial marginalisation of dwellers in Inequality is also a multi-semantic concept, with hazard-prone areas and ecologically-sensitive concrete manifestations in all spheres of human peri-urban and urban areas when new land is and built environment aspects in Zimbabwe. acquired by bending development regulations. Informality and inequality may coincide in slums, This increases the exposure to natural hazards; where the urban poor is also confined to informal

and generate stressors, such as degradation of eco-systems described in Chapter 3. • the abject nature of urban poverty and the impact of shocks and stressors on vulnerable groups. Whereas multi-dimensional poverty is considerably lesser in urban areas than it is in rural areas (African Development Bank, United Nations, World Bank, 2019) the lack of social capital or extended safety nets may result in higher vulnerability for vulnerable groups – for instance women-led households and street children. This is documented globally and in Zimbabwe (IOD PARC, 2013; (ICED, 2017) (Consultations, 2019) • corollary to this point, the compared higher vulnerability and risks for groups in cities whom have less support, may more easily resort to perverse coping strategies (such as crime or sex-work) because of the opportunity and the demand, and be exposed to a more diverse shocks and stressors profile.

Relevance of the urban circumstances for urban instability characterise urban circumstances in the resilience in Zimbabwe country. The most recent ZimVAC report (2019) shows and increasing incidence of urban The analysis of the urban circumstances in vulnerability. Multidimensional poverty in urban Zimbabwe reveal that there exist foundations for areas is growing fast. Finally, observed changes in the development of a resilience agenda in the 32 climate are resulting in both a) extremes, with urban areas. These include, an articulated increased levels of natural hazards, and b) mean regulatory and institutional environment, and a features, which change climatic processes legacy of urban planning skills and knowledge. regulating eco-system services required for agriculture (especially rainfed agriculture); energy Observed urban form show a prevalence of generation; water supply among others. planned areas, although in the current context there are increasing trends towards unplanned The URSA focuses on the analysis of the 32 urban urbanisation, sprawling and increase of informal areas as defined in this chapter. settlements, discussed in chapter 4. Although

landlocked, human settlements are located on strategic axes in Southern Africa with defined by relatively unchallenging terrain. Most urban are located along these axes and at borders, which have trade benefits, as illustrated in Figure 8.

However, informality and inequality are prominent characteristics of urban Zimbabwe in 2019, an urban multi-dimensional poverty is growing steadily. Gender inequalities; challenges for Youth and children and the overall macro-economic

3. Shocks and Stressors profile in Cities of Zimbabwe Definition of ‘disturbance’ in the consequent epidemics). So, the potential for context of Zimbabwe multiple shocks – as well as interactions between shocks and between shocks and stresses demand

once more a system approach and comprehensive This Chapter is dedicated to understanding the analysis of the risk landscape – including potential nature and scope of disturbances that can risks over time – as part of any resilience-building potentially affect urban systems in Zimbabwe now, initiative (Mock, et al., 2015). For this reason, this and in the future. A shock & stresses profile is chapter also provides an overall risk and defined, to be used for the urban resilience analysis vulnerability assessment per city, and projections in Chapter 4. to 2050.for

As mentioned in Chapter 1, when functioning to Shocks Profile any level of performance, an urban system can cope or tolerate certain disturbances by virtue of its inherent characteristics and qualities. The way The events are limited in time or have a sudden these disturbances can be tolerated or coped with peak condition that provoke a sudden ‘shock’ to by the system include ways to limit the impact, the system, likely probing its coping capacity. Pre- reducing or counteracting the negative effect or existing vulnerability will contribute to the extent disruption caused by the disturbances, and any of the impact while in turn recurrent or strategy applied by the system to respond, recover, accumulated shocks will also increase adapt and, if necessary, transform. Usually, the vulnerability. These shocks can be sudden, limited interlinked networks or sub-systems in a city in time, and disconnected from broader pre- interact to either maximise or limit this ability existing trends, like an earthquake and its through their own constitutive characteristics (for immediate aftershocks. But they can also be a instance the size of a drainage) and operating ‘peak’ of an otherwise dormant or low-level qualities (for instance the effectives of the drainage intensity existing trend. For instance, an economic management systems). The extent to which these shock can be the sudden disruption caused by the systems interact with disturbances is therefore sudden collapse an already instable, but pre- dictated by both their own status and the level of existing, macro-economic dynamics. It can also the disturbance they experience and respond to the peak after progressive deterioration of conditions, question: “resilience to what?”. for example in the case of a drought. A common characteristic of these shocks is that they act Disturbances are two-folded: events and trends. independently and are often beyond reach of the They are normally classified, respectively, as urban systems and its capacity to influence them. shocks and stresses and are further described in the Natural hazards are obvious examples; but national respective sections hereunder. Shocks and stressors macro-economic shocks, or even large global seldom occur as isolated events. Urban dwellers oscillation in prices of raw materials, for instance, experience the shocks and stresses through their are well beyond the capacity of a city to influence. impact on urban systems, which have either a They are usually characterized by their frequency, mitigating (for instance through functional duration, intensity and scale of impact from their protective infrastructure) or an amplifying effect micro level (idiosyncratic shocks) to the macro (for instance contamination of water sources and (covariant shocks) level.

The shock profile of Zimbabwe includes a) natural, b) human induced shock potential. This section provides an analysis of these shocks, their likelihood and impact.

Natural Shocks (Hazards) Floods Flooding has been officially recorded in Zimbabwe at least once every year for the past 100 years Riverine flood hazard levels vary broadly across Zimbabwe according to ThinkHazard!. In areas of highest riverine flood hazard potentially damaging and life-threatening river floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10 years. Flood hazard is highest in parts of western Gwayi, eastern Runde and Save and northern Manyame. Urban/surface water flooding is classified as very low to low across most of Zimbabwe by ThinkHazard!, however Lupane and Buhera are classified as areas of high urban flood hazard according to ThinkHazard! This means that potentially damaging and life-threatening urban floods are expected to occur at least once in these areas in the next 10 years. In line with general trends seen elsewhere in the world, Zimbabwe has seen cumulative annual rainfall levels remain relatively steady over the last few decades, however rainfall patterns are shifting towards more seasonal periods of drought and extreme rainfall 11. This brings with it the increased incidence of flash-flooding, which can occur rapidly and hence can be much more dangerous. In March 2019 many parts of eastern mbabwe were affected by flooding associated with Cyclone Idai.

Drought Wildfire

Droughts are cited as one of the most common All of Zimbabwe is classified as having high hazards in Zimbabwe and can be linked to the El- wildfire hazard according to ThinkHazard!. This Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as described in means that there is greater than a 50% chance of Chapter 2 of this report. Furthermore, the Civil encountering weather that could support a Protection Organization of Zimbabwe12 cite significant wildfire that is likely to result in both drought as the biggest single hazard affecting life and property loss in any given year. Fire- Zimbabwe. Droughts, much more so than for other related hazards can either be true ‘wild’ fires, in hazards such as earthquakes or floods, can be that they originate through natural processes, or difficult to entangle from their human and physical can be man-made in origin, resulting typically causes. For example, a meteorological drought from negligence, poorly managed slash-and-burn might occur when a region receives less rainfall agricultural practices, arson, or often in parts of the than might be expected for the long-term average, developing world, inadequate or illegal electrical however a socioeconomic drought occurs when the networks. Distinguishing between man-made and demand for water exceeds the supply. A wild fires is difficult after-the-fact and many fires meteorological drought is therefore not a are wrongly classified. prerequisite for a sociological drought. This means that it’s often logical to consider droughts within Earthquake the context of both hazards and risks; causes and impacts. Meteorological drought is classified as Zimbabwe is located at the southern-most tip of the high across parts of western Zimbabwe, becoming East African Rift Valley, which dictates most of lower to the east according to ThinkHazard! This the seismic activity in East Africa. According to means that in the west, meteorological droughts are ThinkHazard! earthquake hazard is generally very expected to occur on average once every 5 years low to low across the central part of Zimbabwe, and are expected to occur less frequently in the east. Further to this, UNOCHA cite high socioeconomic/agricultural drought hazard in parts of northern and southern Zimbabwe. As discussed in Section, alternating periods of drought and flooding are increasingly likely to occur in Zimbabwe. This brings with it the potential for secondary hazards such as landslides, which are much more likely to occur following periods of drought due to more ready infiltration of water into the ground due to desiccation cracking associated with periods of prolonged drought.

Figure 15: Global seismic hazard map. Peak ground acceleration (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period) becoming medium to the northwest (over the mid- High winds Zambezi Basin in the Lake Kariba area) and southeast (in the Deka Fault Zone along the border High winds and their associated potential impacts with Mozambique). In the areas of medium hazard present a unique challenge for classification. This there is a 10% chance of a potentially-damaging is because some sources present or cite ‘cyclone earthquake occurring in the next 50 years. The hazard’, some present ‘tropical storm’ hazard and Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHAP) indicates some may just present ‘wind hazard’. Clearly from that this approximately corresponds to a Peak the point of view of those at risk, the classification Ground Accelerations (PGA) of up to 0.8 m/s2 of the event is irrelevant – if the winds are strong (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475- enough to cause damage to a roof (or similar) then year return period) Figure 1: Global seismic hazard that’s all that matters. However, the (often map. Peak ground acceleration (10% probability of incorrectly used) terminology presents challenges exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period). for studies such as this. For example, ThinkHazard! cites cyclone hazard as being generally very low to low across most of Zimbabwe, further citing that cyclone hazard rises to medium along the south-eastern coastline with Mozambique, corresponding to just a 10% chance

72 of potentially-damaging cyclonic wind speeds through classification issues to present an overview occurring in the next 10 years. How then could this of potentially damaging wind hazards in relatively moderate hazard classification be Zimbabwe. It should further be noted that wind appropriate given that in March 2019, many parts hazards and the risks they pose to buildings are of eastern Zimbabwe were affected by flooding largely dictated on a site-by-site basis. Local and strong winds (60 – 100 km/hr) associated with factors such as the relative position of buildings, Cyclone Idai? Was it that Idai was a remarkably position of buildings relative to localised large and unlikely event? Or perhaps that damages topographic features, vegetation etc. all and impacts were chiefly associated with flooding significantly affect the wind speed which could rather than wind? To add further to the potential affect a given building. confusion, Idai was actually classified as a tropical storm by the time it reached Zimbabwe, meaning Extreme heat that the impacts of Idai were not strictly speaking caused by a cyclone at all (but rather by Tropical According to ThinkHazard! extreme heat hazard is Storm Idai). In contrast to ThinkHazard! the low to medium across Zimbabwe, with the areas of Zimbabwe Department of Civil Protection present lower hazard occurring in the central parts of the a map by the Zimbabwe Meteorological Office country. This means that in areas of medium which shows most of southern Zimbabwe and parts hazard there is more than a 25% chance that at of northern Zimbabwe as being most affected least one period of prolonged exposure to extreme cyclone prone areas. Regardless, whether classified heat, resulting in heat stress, will occur in the next as a cyclone, tropical storm or just a storm, high five years. The five warmest days on record in winds have the potential to cause damage in Zimbabwe have occurred since 1987. Zimbabwe. The qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment presented with this project aims to cut

Figure 1 – ThinkHazard! Riverine Flood Figure 2 – ThinkHazard! Urban Flood Figure 3 – ThinkHazard! Figure 4 – ThinkHazard! Wildfire Classification Classification Meteorological Drought Classification Classification

Figure 5 – ThinkHazard! Earthquake Figure 6 – ThinkHazard! Cyclone Figure 7 – ThinkHazard! Extreme Classification Classification Heat Classification

Figure 16 Hazards in ZImbabwe according to ThinkHazard!

Landslide

Figure 17: NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility Map ThinkHazard! does not currently contain any hazard across most of Zimbabwe (Figure 14). information on landslide hazard in Zimbabwe. The Widespread landsliding occurred in Chimanimani NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility map in 2019, triggered by high rainfall associated with indicates low to moderate levels of landslide Cyclone/Tropical Storm Idai.

Human and System Induced Shocks

Political and Economic Shocks In the URSA, it was decided to treat economic instability as a chronic stress. However, economic instability recurrently peaks exceeding critical thresholds, for instance in the case of sudden cash shortage. These stochastic events result in sudden shocks that threaten households, as captured by the ZimVAC 2019.

Table 11: Potential future levels of hazard accounting for climate change impacts. Urban Area Flood Drought Wildfire Earthquake High Extreme Landslide Hazard Hazard Hazard Hazard Winds Heat Hazard Score Score Score Score Hazard Hazard Score Score Score Beitbridge Urban 4 5 4 1 4 4 3 Bindura Urban 3 4 4 2 2 3 4 Bulawayo 3 5 5 1 3 3 3 Chegutu Urban 2 3 4 2 2 3 2 Chinhoyi 2 2 5 2 3 4 3 Chipinge Urban 3 4 5 3 5 4 2 Chiredzi Urban 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 Chirundu 3 2 5 3 1 4 4 Chitungwiza 2 3 5 1 3 3 2 Epworth 2 3 5 1 2 3 2 Gokwe South Urban 4 4 4 2 2 4 3 Gwanda Urban 3 5 5 1 3 5 3 Gweru Urban 3 5 5 1 2 3 3 Harare 2 3 5 1 2 3 2 Hwange Urban 4 5 5 3 1 5 4 Kadoma Urban 2 4 4 2 2 4 2 Kariba Urban 4 3 4 3 2 4 4 Karoi 3 3 5 3 2 4 3 Kwekwe Urban 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 Lupane 4 4 5 2 1 3 3 Marondera Urban 2 4 5 1 3 3 2 Masvingo Urban 3 4 4 1 4 4 3 Mutare Urban 2 4 4 3 5 4 3 Mvurwi 2 2 5 2 2 3 3 Norton 2 3 5 2 3 3 2 Plumtree 3 5 5 2 3 5 3 Redcliff 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 Rusape 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 Ruwa 2 3 5 1 3 3 2 Shurugwi Town 2 5 5 1 3 3 3 Victoria Falls 4 5 5 3 2 5 3 Zvishavane Urban 3 4 4 1 3 4 4

Stressors profile Human induced stresses Trends described in this chapter are pre-existing and long-term issues that often act as stressors to Gender Inequality undermine the functioning of urban systems. Societal position of women bears consequence on Accumulated stresses can impair the ability of the their ability to withstand urban stresses or even system and people to respond to shocks or contribute to the resilience for the urban maintain desirable levels of performance. They can community. In Zimbabwe, not only do women not be both exogenous, hence being imposed on the share an equal status, they also face sexual abuse, urban system by external stressors, or endogenous, physical violence, emotional and psychological generating from the long-term malfunctioning of trauma and also socio-economic violence in their the very system. homes. Spousal abuse is the most common form of Sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). Some Zimbabwe is a high climate risk country because of the contributing factors to SGBV in Zimbabwe of high vulnerability of climate changes on its include: societal norms on sexual rights and population and exposure to climate-related events manhood; commercialization of ‘lobola’ or bride such as frequent droughts, people’s reliance on price, socialization processes that condone abuse, agricultural land that is both flood and drought economic factors such as poverty, exploitation, prone. The urban poor are especially vulnerable to access to and control over resources and limited climate change because their homes are frequently participation of women in decision-making. (IFRC, located in hazardous areas. High unemployment 2017). Issues faced by women in cities are further and lack of social services compounds their ability described in chapter 2 under cross-cutting issues. to get food, access clean water and essential medical services. Crime Zimbabwe’s primary crime areas of concern The URSA review of the stresses affecting urban include wildlife crime, particularly stock theft, and areas in Zimbabwe includes assigning levels trafficking in drugs, firearms and human beings. (scoring) according to national and local Cybercrime is also a growing national crime consultations, data and literature review. The list of phenomenon. Drug syndicates use Zimbabwe as a stressors was prioritised in cooperation with UCAZ transit country, especially for cocaine and cannabis and local authorities during consultations, from a bound for the rest of the world. Recent evidence long-list of 30 possible stressors. We have indicates that Zimbabwe itself has a growing compared this review with the findings from consumer market for these drugs too. Petty crimes ZimVAC (2019). are widespread as a result of high levels of In general, we have categorised stressors as human unemployment in youth (Interpol, 2019) (USDS, induced, system induced or climate induced. 2019). See chapter on safety and security for more information.

Eco-System Services Depletion and Land Degradation

In urban areas intensification of agricultural activities, infrastructural development and pollution of water resources in wetlands is observed. People have resorted to urban farming in undesignated areas (such as riverbanks and wetlands) and using non-compliant transportation, as a survival strategy (UNFCC, n.d.) Companies operating in Zimbabwe’s natural resource sector particularly mining are affected by a high degree of corruption resulting in resource depletion (U4 Zimbabwe, 2015). Water treatment costs have risen sharply in recent years because of excessive pollution. Passing the real cost to the consumer has been difficult as the majority cannot afford to pay market rates. Although massive land re- distribution has occurred since 2000, land degradation has spread to the newly resettled areas as human and livestock populations continue to increase in these farms. The demand of timber for building purposes as well as wood fuel in these Figure 18: Figure 3 Malaria Risk Map - Health Protection areas, have worsened the environmental crisis. Scotland (Accessed 2019) (WHO, 2018). The consequence of this stressor is Communicable and Non-Communicable Diseases that the economy is impacted, and infrastructure AIDS is the biggest cause of health-related deaths and social systems are also put under excessive in Zimbabwe. Mosquito-borne diseases such as duress. malaria and filariasis are also prevalent. Outbreaks of cholera, or other enteric diseases such as typhoid, can occur. Other water-borne, food-borne and other infectious diseases (including hepatitis, tuberculosis, measles, typhoid and rabies) are prevalent, with more serious outbreaks occurring from time to time (WHO, 2018).

The majority of deaths occurred (61% in 2009) were linked to environment and lack of access to WASH, limited access to health care (lack of transport/ distance to hospital), not enough supplies/beds/resources, lack of communication and information about cholera, HIV and malaria, lack of education, fear of persons with diseases and stigma, cultural practices (burial & handshake)

Figure 19: Figure 4 Cholera Risk Map – World Health Organisation (2008) System Induced Unemployment Economic & Political Instability Whilst some recent estimates show an unemployment rate of up to 95% in the country The country’s protracted fiscal imbalances have (ICED, 2017), the latest official estimates by constrained development expenditure and social ZimStat show an average unemployment of 6.6% service provision, undermining poverty reduction in 2017 (ZimStat, 2017). Within the current efforts. Massive corruption and economic policies conditions, the actual unemployment level is have plunged the country into poverty. An unknown and difficult to quantify. The effect of inefficient judicial system and general lack of this is that unemployed persons are more likely to transparency severely exacerbates business costs be involved in criminal activities and further derail and entrepreneurial risk. At the heart of the the economic and social security of the city economic crisis is an unstable political (Mpofu & Chimhenga, 2016). environment that has hampered support from the Energy Crisis international community, as well as local investors. Zimbabwe sees a severe energy crisis because its The involvement of the military in civilian politics major sources of electricity are struggling to keep has led to the claim that “strongman” leadership up with demand. Droughts have caused major and militaristic discipline is necessary for power plants such as Kariba dam to produce just economic reforms and a stable environment. But 34% of what it usually can. The Hwange colliery – this type of enforcement often lacks the required which provides almost all of Zimbabwe’s coal for governing expertise and resorting to heavy-handed power generation – is producing less because of tactics instead. old and deteriorating infrastructure. The supply deficit is catered for by imports from Mozambique and South Africa. Payments for these imports aren’t easy to keep up with. Hyperinflation has

79 severely eroded the power of local currency, Climate Induced leaving the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority Rising Temperatures in a financial quagmire. The energy sector has Expected changes in climate include the average imposed rolling blackouts that last up to 18 hours a increase of temperatures, as discussed in the day, crippling factories and mines and previous section. This will contribute to heighten compounding the country’s economic crisis. This the potentiality of extreme weather events. It will stressor is particularly important because a proper, also a) affect some plants and crops by exceeding reliable and sufficient energy supply is critical for their optimal growth temperature. This in turn will the correct functioning of many networks and sub- result in further challenges to agricultural yields, systems operating in cities. For instance, constant and hence food security in urban areas; reduced fuel-shortage hamper the ability of urban dwellers productivity may also ignite rural to urban to efficiently move from their place of residence to migration, which will further compound stress on the place of business, which results in loss of service delivery; b) increase the likelihood of income. This, in turn, further poverty and weeds, pests, and fungi that thrive on warmer informality. Sudden disruption of energy supply temperatures, wetter climates, and increased also threatens the reliability of critical lifeline CO2 levels; c) compound water stress by services, such as hospitals and healthcare and can increasing; c) affect livestock through increased compound the effects of shocks, such as floods or prevalence of parasites and diseases, also affecting cyclones. rural livelihood that may in turn boos rural to urban migration; d) heighten heat-island effects in dense built-up areas; e) increase water stress through faster evaporation of open-surface water bodies, such as dams with increased stress for urban areas, and water deficit that restrict plant growth; Erratic Rainfall

Expected changes in climate include alteration of rainfall patterns increase of temperatures, as discussed in the previous section. In addition to increase risks of droughts, erratic rainfall patterns associated with higher temperatures will also further the water deficit in urban areas through a) reduced yields in rivers; b) reduced recharge of groundwater sources.

Climate change projections IPCC climate change models climate change only and does not account for the potential for localised variations in climate.

The 5th Assessment Report of the The models indicate at a national-scale: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • An increase in temperature of between 1.6 °C (IPCC) presents a range of global climate change and 2.6 °C, the magnitude of which is largely models. These climate models are available for a dictated by which of the RCPs is used. range of indicators, for a range of future time • A reduction in summer rainfall of between 7 % periods and for a range of different modelled and 25 %. scenarios. The global climate models have a spatial • A reduction in winter rainfall of between 2 % resolution of ~250 km. and 8%. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Several other studies cite downscaled climate represent a range of different possible changes in change models which provide a higher spatial future anthropogenic emissions scenarios. RCP2.5 resolution than the global climate models used is the most optimistic scenario and would only be here. These models were not available for use by realised if strong mitigation efforts and early this project, however their general conclusions participation from all greenhouse gas emitters were about trends in temperature and precipitation are achieved including subsequent active removal of the same as the global climate models. The global atmospheric carbon dioxide. In contract, RCP8.5 is climate models are therefore appropriate for this the most pessimistic scenario and is based on study. minimal effort to reduce emissions. RCP4.5 presents a more middle-of-the-road scenario. Supporting evidence

For this project two indicators are used: Zimbabwe already has an extremely variable • Relative change in seasonal mean precipitation rainfall pattern and climate change will intensify (expressed as % change from current long- this variability. This means that although a modest term mean); and reduction in total rainfall is predicted, the intensity • Absolute change in seasonal mean temperature and variation in rainfall events may increase. This (expressed in °C). means that rather than reducing in-line with a • Furthermore, the following model parameters reduction in total rainfall, the potential for were used: dangerous, flash-floods may increase. • 2046 – 2065 future period; Furthermore, as floods become more intense and • Summer and winter season models; powerful, so too becomes their erosive power, th • 50 percentile results; and which may lead to the increased occurrence of • RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. landslides.

Table 5 presents the climate change models The urban heat island effect is also likely to extracted for each of the 32 urban areas for this disproportionally increase temperatures in urban study. It should be noted that the spatial resolution of the climate models is significantly larger than the size of each urban area and hence the estimates provide an indication of the potential effects of

areas in comparison to rural areas across may lead to more cyclones tracking south of Zimbabwe13. Madagascar and making landfall in Mozambique in the future15. These cyclones and associated On average, approximately 3 – 4 tropical cyclones tropical storms have the potential to increase wind from the east Indian Ocean make landfall on the hazard in Zimbabwe due to climate change, south-eastern coastline of Africa near Mozambique however the magnitude or likelihood of this 14 per year . Several more westerly trending storms change is not well understood. and cyclones make landfall on Madagascar each year but do not reach mainland Africa. Sea surface temperature rise associated with climate change

UNDP (2017) Stocktaking for National Adaption Plan Cadribo, R. (2012) Flood Risk Management in Mozambique Development Process: and Sub- online: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/cadribo_session2.pdf Fitchett,

Table 12 Climate change model indicators extracted at the location of the 32 urban areas. Indicator Modelled change in seasonal mean Modelled change in seasonal mean temperature (+ °C) rainfall (%) Season Summer Winter Summer Winter Urban Area / RCP RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Beitbridge Urban 1.6 2.4 1.6 2.5 -8 -18 -2 -3 Bindura Urban 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8 Bulawayo 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -12 -19 -5 -7 Chegutu Urban 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Chinhoyi 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8 Chipinge Urban 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.3 -7 -13 -3 -7 Chiredzi Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8 Chirundu 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -14 -17 -3 -5 Chitungwiza 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Epworth 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Gokwe South Urban 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.4 -12 -19 -5 -7 Gwanda Urban 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.3 -12 -23 -5 -7 Gweru Urban 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -10 -19 -5 -7 Harare 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Hwange Urban 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 -17 -25 -6 -6 Kadoma Urban 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -11 -16 -5 -7 Kariba Urban 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -14 -17 -5 -7 Karoi 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -12 -17 -5 -7 Kwekwe Urban 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -11 -19 -5 -7 Lupane 1.8 2.5 1.7 2.3 -12 -19 -5 -7 Marondera Urban 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Masvingo Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8 Mutare Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.3 -8 -12 -3 -7 Mvurwi 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8 Norton 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Plumtree 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.3 -12 -23 -5 -7 Redcliff 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -11 -19 -5 -7 Rusape 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Ruwa 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Shurugwi Town 1.8 2.6 1.7 2.4 -10 -16 -5 -7 Victoria Falls 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 -17 -25 -6 -6 Zvishavane Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8

Observed disaster impact in urban areas of Zimbabwe

Urban areas in Zimbabwe are recurrently affected by disasters with severe impact on people and their assets.

The International Disaster Database (EMDAT 2015, consulted 2019)16 shows that the most recurrent, economic and widespread disaster’ impacts in Zimbabwe are droughts and floods, associate to severe storms or cyclones as illustrated in Figure 1, while epidemics have the highest death tolls. However, it should be noted that this data is collected up to 2015, thus missing regional droughts in 2016 influenced by El Niño followed by Cyclone Dineo (2017) and associated floods (World Bank & GFDRR, 2019) and Cyclone Idai (2019). Also, there is a high recurrence of ‘discreet’ disasters that do not trigger national states of emergency but do affect performance of urban systems in the country.

In the case of rapid on-set disasters, urban areas in Zimbabwe have experienced impact of destructive forces associated to tropical storms and cyclones, such as high-winds, riverine and flash-floods (as those experienced in Chipinge and surrounding areas in Cyclone Idai, 2019; or Chitungwiza, 2017) and derived effects that include contamination of water sources and peaks in water-borne disease’ incidence as well as food insecurity (GoZ and UNDP, 2017).

Figure 20 Frequency, mortality and economic impact data for Zimbabwe Source: EM-DATA, CRED EM-DAT (Feb. 2015) :

16 EM-DAT International Disaster Database (Feb. 2015) is an reported killed; Hundred (100) or more EM-DAT International OFDA/CRED initiative within the Université catholique de Disaster Database; Declaration of a state of emergency; Call Louvain Brussels (Belgium) http://www.emdat.be For a for international assistance disaster to be entered into the database at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled: Ten (10) or more people

www.emdat.be Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - planning and infrastructure magnifies risks of Belgium. disasters. Associated floods, or other intense- When Cyclone Idai made landfall across the hilly rainfall seasonal riverine floods have also resulted range of eastern Zimbabwe, across Mozambique, in disasters in urban areas satellites of Harare. Chipinge and Chiredzi were affected by heavy rainfall, resulting in flooding, landslides, and While natural-hazard levels are medium to high in strong winds in both rural and urban areas. This several of the 32 urban areas, historic disaster resulted in loss of lives, as well as in damaged impacts demonstrate that risk in the country is landscape and housing infrastructure (WB, primarily vulnerability driven and compounded by 2019)17. Cyclone Idai displaced close to 17,000 the observed ‘cascade’ of failures across inter- households. According to the RINA, the worst- dependent sub-systems in urban areas, as in the affected district is Chimanimani with 8,000 case of cholera epidemics. households displaced. Other districts are: Chipinge 3,000; Buhera 1,000 and Mutare, 4000. In addition These sudden events are known to compound to direct loss and damages in these areas, the existing stresses in urban areas of Zimbabwe. In broader infrastructure catchment connecting the case of cholera outbreaks, the concentration of directly urban areas such as Mutare and Chipinge, people and cascade of failures in water and to their rural background, and further Harare and sanitation sub-systems drive the high impacts of other areas in Zimbabwe to the coastline of epidemics. Recorded since 1972 in Zimbabwe, Mozambique has had and is likely to still have cholera outbreaks morbidity has peaked in 2008- profound long-term local and regional impact. The 2009 with 4288 deaths reported (Chimusoro, K, Beira Corridor is one of the Southern Africa’s 2018; EMDAT, 2015); but they were preceded by main transport routes, and critical to access the 1996 high death-toll (1311 people, EMDAT, 2015) Indian Ocean and import or export goods in and followed by annual ‘discrete’ events as Zimbabwe. Along the corridor runs also the recently as 2018. To the extent that, as for WHO Mozambique-Zimbabwe fuel pipeline, which is definition, some urban areas in Zimbabwe can be 18 critical to satisfy the fuel demand of landlocked considered cholera-endemic . An outbreak in Zimbabwe. The pipeline was closed for several these areas can be seasonal or sporadic and weeks during Cyclone Idai. Urban areas of Rusape, represents a greater than expected number of cases. Mutare, Chipinge, Chiredzi as well as Beitbridge The occurrence of these events can be typically and Mavsingo are exposed to high levels of strong- linked to suburbs of large cities, i.e. Harare (WHO, 19 winds hazards in association with cyclonic events 2018) where the interplay of high density with that make landfall across Mozambique. As failure in wastewater treatment, sewage, and demonstrated by Cyclone Idai, increasing protection of water sources compound risks. The unplanned urbanisation and non-risk sensitive improvement of Health emergency services

17 WB and GFDRR. (2019). Zimbabwe Rapid Impact and 19 https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-october-2018- Needs Assessment (RINA), May 2019 cholera-zimbabwe/en/ 18 Cholera-endemic area is an area “where confirmed cholera cases were detected during the last 3 years with evidence of local transmission (meaning the cases are not imported from elsewhere)”. WHO, Cholera Key Facts, accessed July 2019 https://www.who.int/en/news- room/fact-sheets/detail/cholera

achieved in Zimbabwe after the 2008 events is were more than 50 percent higher than year earlier credited to have prevented the disease identified in levels”. Analysis performed for the URSA in July Chegutu in 2018 from traveling to connected cities 2019 (Refer to Chapter 4, Section on Livelihood) (Harare and Bulawayo), and spread from there stresses that expenditures for food exceeds 40% of (Chimusoro, 2018)20. However, the high circular household expenditure in eight urban centres mobility (Refer to Chapter 2) driven by economic (Beitbridge, Bindura, Chipinge, Gwanda, Mutare, changes in the country may be a vehicle for the Mvurwi, Plumtree, and Rusape). The ZimVAC disease to travel across highly connected and 2019, completed in August, forced the URSA to interdependent settlements, such as Harare note that expenditure has in fact increased to 48.6 satellites, or cities along the north-south axis. per cent, stressing household coping ranges further.

Food crises have been also documented in cities of The effects of droughts and in general longer dry- Zimbabwe in relation to slow onset21 disasters such spells on highly networked urban systems is multi- as droughts, typically compounded by macro- faceted. In addition to the potential shortage of economic shocks and system-generated stresses in food that droughts can exacerbate and the spike in urban areas. Risk of food-related disasters in urban prices that adversely affect cash-crunched urban areas are largely driven by their socio-economic households assessed by ZimVAC (2019), water- sensitivity, as shown by the August 2019 report stresses is highly detrimental for both residential from ZimVAC in urban areas (Food & Nutrition and industrial use in urban systems. Shortage of Council, 2019)22. The August 2019 ZimVAC water in urban areas forces use-prioritisation by reports the doubling of proportion of households household. Naturally hygiene-dedicated water-use having poor food consumption score (21%), with is reduced in favour of drinking-use only 62% of the households consuming acceptable (Consultations, 2019) ZimFUND, 2018), while the diets, a decrease from 87% (2016) and 81% choice of safe water sources is forcedly (2018). The proportion of households consuming compromised, increasing the risk of water-borne poor and borderline diets almost doubled from the diseases. While there are calls from LAs year 2018 to 2019. According to ZimVAC, further, concerning hygiene behaviours, such as boiling the ‘majority of [urban] households (77%) could water, or using water treatment-tablets. At this not meet their food needs’ and given the poor scale, however, guaranteeing behavioural change is capacity of urban safety nets, there is need for a challenge; and water-treatment is highly urgent support action. In urban areas of Zimbabwe, subsidized and unsustainable. In Bulawayo, food insecurity is driven by the interplay of rationing of water from pumps and pipes is climatic and economic shocks and stressors. currently enforced until groundwater is replenished According to the 2019 Global Report on Food in the upcoming rainy season (Consultations, Crises (2019)23 in December 2018, “food prices 2019) (Bloomberg, 2019). In addition to affecting

20 Anderson Chimusoro, Stephen Maphosa, Portia Retrieved on July 2019 at Manangazira, Isaac Phiri, Tonderai Nhende, Sydney https://www.preventionweb.net/files/2911_ALNAPProVentio Danda, Ottias Tapfumanei, Stanley Munyaradzi Midzi nlessonsonslowonsetdisasters.pdf and Juliet Nabyonga-Orem (2018) ‘Responding to 22 Food & Nutrition Council, (2019), ‘2019 Urban Livelihoods Assessment Report’, Harare, Zimbabwe. Cholera Outbreaks in Zimbabwe: Building Resilience Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) over Time’, Current Issues in Global Health. Chapter 4. 23 Food Security Information Network (FSIN), 2019. 21 Hedlund, K. (2007). Slow-onset disasters: drought and food Global Report on Food Crises 2019 and livelihoods insecurity, ProVENTION and ALNAP.

86 people, these measures also affect business and February 2017 Dineo 100-200* industry that depend on water-sources for March 2019 Idai 200-400* production, therefore stalling economic productivity. Urban areas in the southern belt with the highest potential for meteorological droughts Lastly, as mentioned in chapter 2 (Observed include Hwange, Bulawayo, Plumtree, Gwanda, climate) and as reported by the Meteorological Gweru, Shurugwi and Beitbridge. However, urban Services Department (MSD) the observed changes areas that are not currently exposed for known high in climate have also been linked to higher impact level of droughts are shielded by its potentially of disasters in urban areas of Zimbabwe, due to disastrous effects: on the one hand, impact of higher hazard levels intersecting with ever drought on urban rural hinterland, or in highly increasing socio-economic and infrastructure productive agricultural areas for staple food has the vulnerability in the country. Climate change in this potential to affect prices at national level. Crop- sense is considered a ‘threat multiplier’ with failure caused by droughts (or increased potential to magnify dysfunctional service- temperatures as a result of climate change) will be delivery. felt in several urban areas across the country; On High loss & damages can be attributed to the the other hand, higher sensitivity caused by the increasing exposure of people in unplanned and deterioration of water-sources (for instance in unsafe locations, environmental degradation, as Harare and its catchment) drive risks upwards even well as the stresses generated by and within the if meteorological drought levels are deemed to be urban systems, as discussed in Chapter 4. lower.

A dimension of disaster impacts in Zimbabwe that Exposure and potential for disasters in the should be of concern is the documented 32 urban areas of the study disproportionate effects on women, children and individuals living with disabilities (Mhlanga, et al., Disaster impact in Zimbabwe is historically 2019). Following the Cyclone Dineo in 2017, for characterized by alternating droughts and floods instance, studies in displacements areas revealed associated to storms or cyclonic systems; and that women (including girls) were epidemic outbreaks. In urban areas of Zimbabwe, ‘incessantly exposed to verbal and sexual abuse at sudden shocks provoked by natural hazards are the hands of fellow victims or authorities’ strictly intertwined with socio-economic and (Mhlanga, et al., 2019). infrastructural vulnerability, which is driving the

Table 13 : Cyclonic events in Zimbabwe. Source: adapted and severity of impacts upwards. High density urban completed from International Union for the Conservation of areas, with high socio-economic, infrastructure and Nature, 2005; and *NASA 2017. 2019 spatial vulnerability, are likely increasing the Month/Year Name 24-hour potentiality and severity of both direct and indirect Precipitation impact from rapid onset and slow-onset disasters. (mm) These in turn are generated or compounded by January 1976 Danae 78.5 either natural hazards or accumulated stresses February 1977 Emilie 175 within the system, such epidemic outbreaks. It is January 1986 Berobia 179 important to understand that stresses generated by February 1997 Lissette 62.5 and within the urban system itself (such as domino February 2000 Eline 153 effects of water, sanitation and energy sub-optimal February 2003 Japhet 204 delivery; or increasing unplanned development)

87 have a multiplying and magnifying effect on the recurrence and severity of several natural hazards (UN-Habitat, Consultations, 2019).

As showed in Chapter 3, all 32 urban areas of Zimbabwe are exposed to one or more natural hazards. Risks of disasters in these areas are driven by medium to high levels of hazards, and varying levels of sensitivity.

Projected changes (Refer to Shocks and Stressors profile in Cities of Zimbabwe) will intensify both hazard levels and stresses, heightening the risks of rapid and slow onset disasters, and will also further the vulnerability of urban dwellers in the country.

Significance for urban resilience: historic impacts of disasters in urban areas of Zimbabwe demonstrate the need for an integrated, long-term strategy to reduce vulnerability and address root- causes of system-generated stresses that compound the severity and likelihood of hazards. Climate change will likely exacerbate the potentiality and severity of both rapid and slow onset disasters. The NAP process demonstrates awareness of the need to address the expected effects of climate change in urban areas.

Climate change scenarios proposed that flood and landslide are subject to To make an allowance for climate change an overall increase in hazard score of 1. This indicators in estimating potential future levels of represents the estimated increased seasonality hazard in Zimbabwe it is necessary to equate the and intensity of rainfall events (Section 0). model indicators (Table 5) to a relative change in • There is some evidence to suggest high wind hazard score. hazard related to cyclones and tropical storms may increase due to climate change, however • It is proposed that no hazard scores are this is generally poorly understood. High wind reduced for the potential future scoring. hazards are subject to an increase in hazard • Since model estimates of change in seasonal score of 1 in the eastern-most urban areas of mean temperature do not vary significantly Zimbabwe only. spatially across Zimbabwe it is proposed that • The maximum of the potential future score drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject increases is used. This means that an urban to an overall increase in hazard score of 1. This area which receives an increase in wildfire means that regardless of location, areas which score of 1 due to change in seasonal mean scored 2 in the current-scenario assessment for temperature and an increase of 2 due to change drought will score 3 for the potential future in seasonal mean rainfall will receive an hazard score. overall increase in hazard score of 2. • Using RCP8.5 (summer), for urban areas with • Future hazard scores will be capped at a value an estimated reduction in seasonal mean of 5. rainfall of >20 % it is proposed that drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject to an Table 6 presents the relative change in each of the overall increase in hazard score of 2. For urban indicators to consider the potential future levels of areas with an estimated reduction in seasonal hazard. mean rainfall of 10 – 20 % it is proposed drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject Table 4 presents the potential future levels of to an overall increase in hazard score of 1. hazard accounting for climate change impacts. • Using RCP8.5, for urban areas where the estimated difference between summer mean rainfall and winter mean rainfall is >10 % it is

Table 14 Relative change in each of the indicators to consider the potential future levels of hazard accounting for climate change Urban Area Flood Drought Wildfire Earthquake High Extreme Landslide Hazard Hazard Hazard Hazard Wind Heat Hazard Score Score Score Score Hazard Hazard Score (change) (change) (change) (change) Score Score (change) (change) (change) Beitbridge Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Bindura Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Bulawayo 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Chegutu Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Chinhoyi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Chipinge Urban 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 Chiredzi Urban 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 Chirundu 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Chitungwiza 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Epworth 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Gokwe South Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Gwanda Urban 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 Gweru Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Harare 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Hwange Urban 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 Kadoma Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Kariba Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Karoi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Kwekwe Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Lupane 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Marondera Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Masvingo Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Mutare Urban 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 Mvurwi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Norton 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Plumtree 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 Redcliff 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Rusape 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 Ruwa 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Shurugwi Town 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Victoria Falls 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 Zvishavane Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Relevance of listed shocks and stressors particularly economic shocks across all urban for the urban systems of Zimbabwe for councils. Stress’ profile include human, system and climate- urban resilience induced stressors: all system and human induced The current shocks’ profile includes both human stressors are medium to high in the current context, and climate-induced hazards, with potential for especially economic instability, gender inequality rapid and slow onset disasters. Droughts levels are and unemployment. Energy (and fuel) issues are higher the southern dry belt where cities like reported to be high in average in all urban areas. Bulawayo, Plumtree, Gwanda are located. Malpractices such as corruption were mentioned However, direct and indirect of droughts may anecdotally, but this report did not have the affect all urban areas, given their effects on water capacity to ascertain the accuracy of information: availability and food security. Strong-Winds, an average medium level is assumed. Climate or associated with storms and cyclonic events, environment-related stressors include medium to medium and high levels across the country; floods high levels in environmental degradation induced are also prominent in areas like Chitungwiza, by land-use change and deterioration of eco-system Chipinge, Victoria Falls, Beitbridge; and rain- services; average increase of temperatures and triggered landslides may affect hilly areas, such as erratic rainfall patterns have been observed to have Mutare, Chipinge and Chiredzi, which are also an effect on water sources and food production. most exposed to strong-winds from the Indian With the definitions of urban resilience in mind Ocean, along with Mavsingo, Rusape and (the ability of urban systems & dwellers to Beitbridge. Wildfire levels is considered high respond, recover, maintain or rapidly return to across the country. Droughts, strong winds and acceptable performance levels in the face of floods are observed to be compounded by climate disturbances, further adapt and to transform change already and may increase in severity by systems when needed) the URSA will now analyse mid-century across the country; ‘High’ levels of the way in which urban areas are currently human or system generated shocks are observed, functioning when facing these shocks and stressors.

Figure 21: Shock and Stresses Profile 2019 and 2050. Source Authors (2019)

4. Evaluating Urban Resilience An evaluation of the sub-systems can help understand to what extent a city is resilient, to in Zimbabwe identify critical areas of weakness, although a Urban Resilience Framework for Zimbabwe weakness in one area may be compensated by strength in another. The Framework also enables The Urban Resilience Framework for Zimbabwe setting out ‘goals’ essential for resilience. These (URFZ) identifies four (4) dimensions that are can range from how successfully a city provides critical to urban resilience. It is underpinned by 24 for its residents' basic needs to ensuring inclusive sub-systems that contribute to any city’s resilience. economic participation, competency in Collectively, when functioning well, they infrastructure management to robust plans, and contribute to the resilience of the city overall. strategies for the future. Figure 1 illustrates the URFZ, to evaluate urban resilience further in this chapter.

Figure 22: Urban Resilience Framework for Zimbabwe

Dimension 1: Health and Basic Needs

This dimension relates to meeting the requirements Subsystems included in this section are: for ensuring the basic needs of everyone living and working in the city. This dimension considers to 1. Water what extent the city enables everyone to meet their 2. Sanitation and hygiene basic needs, particularly when faced with shocks 3. Solid Waste Management and stresses. 4. Food Security 5. Energy This report analyses issues related to basic needs 6. Health from the perspective of service delivery. All 7. Education sections under this dimension are therefore studied 8. Housing & shelter from the supply and demand angle.

In regard to supply, the below is considered

• Natural Resources: quality and quantity in relation to the current and projected demand, especially in the context of climate change • Management of basic needs delivery (Soft): Governance, regulatory frameworks, financing, technical considerations, information and data support • Delivery systems (Hard): Infrastructure design, status of maintenance and level of operation

From the demand side, the following is analysed

• User interface: awareness and user behaviors; • Access factors (affordability, and non- economic enablers or limiting factors in access)

Dimension 1. Health & Basic Needs environment. There is little robustness or redundancy observed in the delivery of services. Summary Delivery of basic services are highly Zimbabwe’s urban centres are currently unable to interdependent on other urban systems. For deliver reliable services necessary to meet people’s example, basic needs systems are affected by the basic needs, especially within Water Supply, local economy and an ability for communities to Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and Solid Waste sustain a livelihood, whilst if basic needs are not management systems. This reduces urban dwellers provided, the economy and the ability of ULA’s to health and wellbeing. In addition, food insecurity collect revenue is affected. This also limits the is growing, and energy under-supply affects the ability of ULAs to focus on long-term planning. delivery of most services. Although performing relatively well, the educational system does not There are opportunities to leverage the provide a guaranteed avenue to a secure livelihood resourcefulness of urban dwellers and ULAs, and is not inclusive. The housing supply is through enhanced technical support, engagement affected by very low affordability and a lack of and innovation to guide appropriate technologies. infrastructure, causing over-crowding as well as In the mid to long-term, there is a need to leverage underserviced and informal development. outstanding progress made by projects such as the Shortages in the quality, quantity, coverage and Zim Fund (African Development Bank-AfDB with accessibility of basic services is a key contributor financial support of multiple donors), UNICEF in to the high vulnerability of Urban Local 14 secondary cities, and various European Union Authorities, particularly large cities and their (EU)funded projects. To overcome energy satellite towns in Greater Harare and Bulawayo. challenges, there is huge potential for solar energy within and around urban areas in Zimbabwe, The key issues regarding the supply side of urban although cost remains a big constraint. services are the quality and availability of resources which is directly dependent on delivery mechanisms. Demand for good quality services is mainly affected by affordability and user behaviour.

Access to available resources by the poor and vulnerable is a challenge on account of cost constraints, barriers induced by corrupt practices in service delivery, and extremely limited availability of the public goods and services.

Although the observed resourcefulness and flexibility of households provides short-term support against shocks and stressors, it ultimately increases people’s vulnerability. For instance, the unregulated use of alternative water sources like individual boreholes or WASH systems like pit latrines increases health risks and degrades the

Water perennial bodies of water, such as the Limpopo Resilience Goal: Continuous access to sufficient, river in the case of Beitbridge. In these areas, safe, potable water, enabling an active and healthy absence of rainfall compounds depletion of life, regardless of sudden and chronic disturbances. groundwater sources (ReliefWeb, 2016).

Water accessibility varies greatly across Although cities of the highveldt have higher levels Zimbabwean cities, with water resource shortages of water supply, issues remain in ensuring this in lowveld areas. Lack of revenue collection and supply is safe. Lake Chivero, a key source of water therefore lack of investment in all aspects of the supply for 4.5 million people (Harare Water, water system has resulted in serious risks in urban 2019), is becoming increasingly polluted due to Zimbabwe, particularly regarding water inflows of poorly treated sewage effluents (Nhapi, contamination. et al., 2004), agricultural runoff and industrial waste. Inefficient wastewater treatment systems, Zimbabwe’s urban population is projected to grow coupled with a comparatively high connection to from 4.3 million in 2012 to 6.5 million in 2032 the sewage system in Greater Harare, compound (ZIMSTAT, Aug 2015). This demographic shift the issue. will further increase demand for water for domestic consumption, power generation, Climate change is causing faster rates of industrial uses, and recreation, pressurising water evaporation and therefore reducing water resources and water supply services. In Zimbabwe, harvesting and replenishment time across the water supply within smaller municipalities, towns country. Water supply resilience in Zimbabwe is and local boards is the responsibility of the directly dependant on rainfall patterns and water parastatal Zimbabwean National Water Authority storage. This was exemplified in early 2019, when (ZINWA). Larger cities such as Mutare, the Harava and Seke Dams ran dry because of Bulawayo, KweKwe, Mvasingo and Greater persisting dry weather patterns, eventually Harare have independent ‘City Water’ authorities resulting in the closure of the Prince Edward within their governance settings. In Greater Harare, Treatment Plant (Future Directions, 2019) they the City of Harare sub-department Harare Water is supplied. This incident drastically reduced water responsible for water purification and distribution availability fir residents. Overall, water in Harare as well as Chitungwiza, Epworth, Ruwa availability is being especially affected by and Norton Town Councils. Common issues pollution and changes in climate. concerning all aspects of water service delivery: quality, access, coverage and distribution, impact Concerning delivery mechanisms, the management on the resilience of water-systems in urban of water supply is struggling with lack of Zimbabwe. Nevertheless, specific challenges to investment, revenue collection, and financial supply and demand also exist within different inefficiencies (Author, Date) For instance, Harare urban areas. Water is struggling to collect revenues from local residents to finance water supply (Gambe, 2015). The level of water supply varies across urban Writing-off the commercial and national water councils. Cities located in the highveldt have more debts in 2013, removed an income stream needed access to bodies of water, including Lake Chivero by water authorities to deliver and sustain services and the Kariba Dam, as well as ground water. (UKEssays, 2013). A 2011 World Bank funded Urban areas located in the dry areas of the study found that only two Municipalities met water lowveldt, such as Lupane, Bulawayo, Gwanda demand (Mutare and Kwekwe), particularly due to primarily rely on rain and groundwater, on non- the high proportion of non-functioning meters and

low recovery ratios on billed water (Economic urban areas. Much of Zimbabwe’s urban water Consulting Associates, 2011). Dwellers resorting treatment and supply infrastructure was completed to alternative strategies to obtain water (e.g. in-situ between the 1930s to the 1950s (Mangizvo & boreholes drilling) has reduced groundwater Kapungu, 2010), and was designed for smaller sources, as well as negatively impacting revenues. urban populations. Therefore, the infrastructure Non-revenue water (NRW) is estimated at between system is struggling to distribute the larger 40% and 60% of available supplies (Kingdom and volumes of water needed by the current urban Leimberger, 2016) and is a key issue in cities such population (Makwaral & Tavuyanago, 2012). as Masvingo, Mutare and Old Sakubva, with Common failures include water leakages, which in outdated and damaged water reticulation and the case of Harare have caused a 40% loss in piping systems. In Mutare, consultations found that supply (Harare Water, 2019). A lack of essential close to 50% of treated water is lost through non- spare parts, tools, equipment and the technical revenue during reticulation (Consultations, 2019) expertise required for maintenance over the last 50 and in the city’s suburb of Old Sakubva, residents years has left the urban water supply and collect water from unprotected streams formed by distribution networks in a dilapidated state of burst pipes to collect NRW water, posing risks of repair: several water treatment works have been serious diarrhoeal outbreak. decommissioned or are non-functional; pumping equipment has outlived its design life and is A lack of technical expertise and internal politics inefficient in comparison to its original output within authorities has also hampered the (Kwidini, 2007) (Consultations, 2019). Overall, management of revenues and infrastructure consultations across Greater Harare and Mutare (Consultations, 2019). In particular, ‘confusion’ on universally concluded that aging infrastructure is the delegation of responsibilities for water delivery the most common cause of direct water loss and across different parastatal and local water poor distribution (Consultations, 2019). authorities is regularly reported. For example, Redcliff Town continues to face water challenges Demand outweighs supply in most urban areas mainly due to it being not a water authority. studied in relation to both volume and quality Redcliff Town council buys its water from standards. Press reports state that Harare’s primary Kwekwe City Council. During the urban water treatment plant, Mortan Jaffray, currently Consultations Redcliff Town reported that it owes produces less than half of its installed capacity of the City of Kwekwe US$3 million dollars in 704 mega-liters of water per day against demand of arrears for water supply to the town. This debt was 1,200 mega-liters, “leaving many residents without incurred due to Redcliff’s low revenue collection water.” (Reuters, 2019). By July 2019, Harare since the decommissioning of the mining industry. Water stated they would target ‘to provide water to In an effort to ensure debt repayments, Kwekwe [their] residents with a minimum of once a week' regularly cuts water supply. To resolve this issue, supply of the precious liquid [water]” (AllAfrica, Redcliff Municipality has benefited from US$4.5 2019) and in September 2019 (Reuters, 2019) was million dollars to support water and sanitation closed due to further financial challenges, infrastructure as part of the Zimfund Phase 2, especially in regard to procuring treatment which will fund the rehabilitation of the Rutendo chemicals (Reuters, 2019). Mismatch in supply and Water Pump. demand is driven by peripheral city-growth, which results in underserviced expansion areas; The infrastructure supporting the distribution and demographic growth within the urban areas and in treatment of water is one of the main challenges in peri-urban areas, which results in stress on the meeting the increasing demand for water supply in

96 ability of the supply to provide larger volumes at affected by consistent under-investment in the the right price and quality; and an unregulated maintenance of its sewerage and water supply system, which enables households to drill infrastructure. boreholes resulting in degradation and depletion of groundwater sources (Refer to section on Urban The gaps in water supply created by the lack of and Land-Use Planning; Housing; Urban Form). robustness in the water system are being overcome This is particularly evident in Mutare, Bulawayo by flexibility demonstrated by self-supply of water and Greater Harare. In terms of user behaviour on from bore-wells. This has serious negative the demand side, issues raised by local authorities consequences on public health through disease (Consultations, 2019) include vandalism of outbreaks like cholera due to contamination infrastructure, illegal connections to water supply caused by failures in sanitation and hygiene, as and unwillingness to pay. User behaviour in this well as environmental issues. respect is largely driven by sub-standard service- The resilience of Zimbabwe’s urban water delivery, which creates frustration; but it has also resources and supply is compromised by its one- been reported to be induced by policies that dimensional and under resourced structure and disincentive payments (Consultations, 2019). ownership. Urban areas face challenges in A 2011 Urban Water Tariff study found a lack of developing alternative methods of ensuring a functioning water meters and low recovery ratios functioning water system. Potential solutions on billed water as significant problems could include a repositioning of responsibilities contributing to the precarious financial position of and financing (recurrent and capital) onto Urban the Water and Sanitation (Economic Consulting Local Councils (Economic Consulting Associates, Associates, 2011). The poor maintenance of 2011), or greater engagement of the private sector WASH systems, frequent power interruptions and to achieve better integration and delivery of billing and collection inefficiencies in combination services. with high poverty levels has meant that consumers The flexibility in water supply systems is largely are unwilling to pay for water and sewerage tariffs. driven by ‘self-supply’ from groundwater The poor are most significantly affected due to the extraction via boreholes. Groundwater extraction lower levels of service they experience and their is poorly regulated, exposing Zimbabwe to future inability to move to ‘self-supplied’ water such as stresses when groundwater resources are depleted private boreholes. due to over-extraction. “More urban residents are using groundwater. When provision and According to a budget proposal by the government availability of water becomes inadequate, urban advisory body the Infrastructure Development residents are forced to use contaminated water, Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ), Zimbabwe’s primary resulting in increased risks of water-related tourist destination, Victoria Falls, requires diseases such as cholera and typhoid as people substantial investment to upgrade its water and fetch water from unprotected sources and resort to sanitation facilities. Victoria Falls had a permanent open defecation as toilets are closed because of the population of 33,600 and received an average of non-availability of water” (Dungumaro, 2007). For 50,000 tourists per annum when measured by the example, whilst the 2011 outbreak of cholera and 2012 national census. Since that point, the tourism typhoid was attributed to a range of factors industry has increased significantly following the including, the disintegration of sewer systems, upgrading of the local airport. In parallel to poor sanitation in the cities high density suburbs, several urban centres, Victoria Falls has been and the decline of health services, a central trigger

was contaminated water drawn from unprotected sources are distant, households spend a sources. The recurrence of cholera outbreaks disproportionate amount of time in search of water across Zimbabwe, including the September 2018 at the expense of other productive activities in the outbreak of cholera in Harare’s poorer suburbs household. General economic output is also (affecting 8,535 and killing 50) (WHO, 2018), threatened by water shortages when industries do confirms the susceptibility of Zimbabwe’s urban not have water for production purposes. centres to such epidemics and shows the limited ‘reflectiveness’ of the water system. The management of natural resources impacts on the water quality in cities. Overall, the quality of Water has a high level of centrality on urban water in natural sources is depreciating across systems in Harare with failures causing negative urban areas in Zimbabwe, most notably in Harare impact on health as seen above; economic output due to a range of domestic, agricultural and in terms of water as a material for production and industrial activities in Harare, Chitungwiza, Norton time lost in collecting water; and lastly food and Ruwa. For example, dysfunctional sewage security. Equally, lapses in other urban systems works in some local authorities results in waste prevent the water services functioning smoothly, flowing into dams located downstream of the like unchecked discharges from sewage works; settlements. This has also increase usage of poorly implemented sanitation facilities; and even chemicals to make the water potable. intermittent supply of energy. Sanitation services in cities, particularly in Water shortages in Zimbabwe’s urban centres have informal high-density suburbs, are observed to had several negative impacts on urban citizen’s have a huge impact on the sources of groundwater. health, the environment and economic This is mainly through contamination from poorly productivity. Water shortages generally result in lined pit latrines. stringent water rationing, which compounds existing risks of diseases such as diarrhoea, Water treatment and distribution services are dysentery, and cholera, as people are unable to heavily dependent on consistent energy supply. bathe or flush their toilets (Nyoni, 2007) and many Regular power outages affecting all urban centres resort to defecating in the bush or open public in Zimbabwe impacts on the ability of places. Reduced water flows in sewage systems municipalities to operate water treatment and also result in frequent blockages (Nel, 1992) and pumping services (Nhlanhla, 2008). For example, the pooling of sewage water in public spaces Beitbridge experienced serious water problems creating potential for an outbreak of disease. during the cholera outbreak in 2008 when its pump Household food security status is also linked to station was inoperable due to an electrical outage access to potable water, with households identified (Hug, 2009) as having poor food security consistently being To enhance the functionality of water system in found to use unprotected water sources (53%) as urban areas requires a comprehensive systems well as unimproved toilet facilities (65%), both of assessment which includes the most marginalized which pre-dispose households to diseases and vulnerable communities; and further find ways including diarrhoea (Central Statistical Office, of subsidized financing for repairs, upgrades and 2002) (Population Reference Bureau, 2011). Poor new infrastructure within the water system as well health has a knock-on effect on human capital in as improving sanitation and energy supply. terms of labour productivity and the overall physical well-being needed to sustain activity and The Urgent Water Supply and Sanitation resourcefulness. In addition, where the water Rehabilitation project (UWSSRP) identifies some

98 key lessons learnt from on-going implementation 3. Sector financing; of UWSSRP phase 1 and other donors’ supported 4. Planning, monitoring and review; projects in Zimbabwe are considered in the 5. Capacity Development (SWA, 2018). formulation and design of the project. They include: These ‘Building Blocks’ should provide the framework for research, consultations, • Ensuring ownership of project design and collaboration and commitment from urban water implementation by beneficiaries is crucial stakeholders within the Government of Zimbabwe, for smooth execution of the project and non-government organisations and the private sustainability of its outcome; sector. In undertaking the above assessment, it is • Use of country sector governance important that specific action is taken to ensure structures ensures smooth coordination; that the voices and rights of marginalised and • Continuous evaluation of priorities ensures vulnerable people are considered at the forefront project interventions are relevant and and consulted throughout the process to reduce timely – due to the urgent nature of inequalities in access to water. interventions; Comprehensive mapping of existing water supply • Need for continuous capacity building – services, systems, and providers covering piped Zimbabwe’s precarious situation of brain systems, self-supply, and other forms of water drain hit hard the water and sanitation supply delivery for major urban centres within sector and most staff at water and Zimbabwe is required. This would guide the wastewater treatment facilities had little identification of key goals to improve water exposure to fully functioning systems. service inclusiveness, support evidence-based There is therefore a need to continuously prioritisation of actions, and generate political train staff. understanding of and support for progression • Need for continued and sustained hygiene towards Zimbabwe Government and SDG promotion until new behaviours have ambition of “safely managed” water for all. become entrenched and result in reduction in risk of disease outbreaks. Recommendations from World Bank Water Forum (2014) remain relevant including; the use of Given the current status of water supply in satellite imagery, GIS, and field sampling as an Zimbabwe‘s urban centres, a number of critical effective, rapid, and inexpensive way to assess actions to strengthen system performance and water quality in Zimbabwe. This should occur resilience can be identified. A wholescale review alongside an in-depth quality assessment of of the regulatory environment and delivery selected high-priority surface and groundwater mechanisms is required to develop a practical and bodies should occur as well human resource targeted strategy to improve Zimbabwe’s urban capacity development and a review of the policy, water supply. The Sanitation and Water for All legal, financial and institutional aspects of water (SWA) ‘Building Blocks’ offer a coherent and supply (World Bank Water, 2014). widely used approach to identify the key elements that must be in place for the sector to deliver Leakage control across all urban centres needs to sustainable urban water services and progressively be improved, with resources directed to i) eliminate inequalities in access: comprehensive identification and mapping of existing leakages, ii) repair and rehabilitation of 1. Sector policy/strategy 2. Institutional arrangements

reticulated water supply networks; and iii) on- urban water supplies by poor effluent management, going, post-repair, monitoring. industrial and agricultural wastes. Municipal authorities require greater autonomy in setting Government subsidisation and financing for realistic tariffs to enable sufficient recovery of upgrades, maintenance and operations of water costs, continued operation and investment in treatment and supply needs bolstering. Moreover, system maintenance and upgrading/expansion a strong regulatory environment should be (Davison, 2001). established that prevents over-extraction of groundwater by private users and contamination of

100 80 60 40 20

% of properties 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 23 Percentage of properties in the urban council with direct water supply (Source: SLB, 2015)

100 80 60 40 20 0 % of water supplied Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 24 Percentage of water supplied to properties that passes quality benchmarks (Source: SLB, 2015)

100

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Water supply in liters/capita/day Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 26 Per capita daily supply of water by urban council (Source: SLB, 2015)

24 19 14 9 4 -1 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Hours of water supply per day per supply water of Hours Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 25Continuity of water supply (Source: SLB, 2015)

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Sanitation and hygiene collection, and very little opportunity for citizen participation.

Resilience Goal: Inclusive access to toilet Consultation has revealed that although most urban facilities within every house. The disposal is done local authorities have adequate human resources to through ethically, fiscally and environmentally manage sewage works, a lack of investment in the responsible methods. Sanitary conditions are network has resulted in an ageing, inadequate and continuously maintained through technological, deteriorating system, with maintenance equipment institutional and social means. also in a state of disrepair. The poor state of repair of sewage distribution infrastructure is affecting The sanitation and hygiene systems of Zimbabwe’s proper management of the sewage works. An urban areas are characterized by poor levels of example is Chitungwiza sewage works, which maintenance and an inability to expand into newly continue to threaten the Environment due to heavy developed areas. This poor performance leakages resulting in contamination of surface negatively affects the health and dignity of urban water (Consultations, 2019) citizens. The growing population of Zimbabwe’s cities, and Zimbabwe inherited a reasonably high functioning especially the emergence of sprawling settlements urban sanitation network upon gaining (see chapter on urban form for more information) independence in 1980. According to 2019 has not been supported by extended provision of estimates (WHO-UNICEF, 2019) in urban settings, infrastructure to serve new populations. 78% of households are connected to a sewer and Ultimately, only 78% of urban households in only 1% practice open defecation, representing a Zimbabwe are connected to a sewer (ZimStat, high level of coverage and excellent sanitation 2017). behaviour, with 99% of residents using a toilet. Nevertheless, this data somewhat masks the Bindura Municipality is an example of an urban current challenges in Zimbabwe with regards to area that has seen a lot of housing units being urban sanitation and hygiene. Only 16% of urban established but no investment has been put to Zimbabweans access ‘safely managed’ sanitation upgrading the sewage works to meet the increased services, where waste is stored, transported, treated demand and connect households to a sewer. and disposed of in a safe manner, while 54% have Although the local authority has recognised this ‘limited’ or ‘unimproved’ sanitation services. and is intent on upgrades, they are impeded by resident’s inability to pay service payment. The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector in Zimbabwe is complex and involves a range of Poor revenue collection by urban councils is six Ministries and Departments, coordinated by the hampering the efforts to maintain their sewage Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate infrastructure. The general macro-economic and Rural Resettlement (MLAWCRR). challenges currently facing Zimbabwe has resulted Complexity within the governance of WASH in a large percentage of the population living systems in urban areas creates uncertainty for roles below the poverty line and therefore their inability and responsibilities across the sector, resulting in to pay for the services they receive. For example, poor leadership and management, limited and the closure of Zisco steel in Redcliff has negatively unclear information and communication, poor impacted most of the city’s residents who were adherence to policy and regulatory frameworks, mainly employed by the company. In Masvingo limited or duplicate information and data the closure of Cold Storage Commission has

102 impacted negatively on people’s source of income. from prioritising water for sanitation (flushing This has in turn affected revenue collection in most toilets) and hygiene (handwashing) resulting in an urban areas. The surge in the number of informal increase in unsafe practices, for example, open traders in urban areas has affected urban authority defecation. On the other hand, increased budgets as revenue collection from street vendors precipitation intensity and associated flooding can is difficult (Consultations, 2019). Moreover, all overwhelm and/or damage existing drainage urban areas collect their revenue in local currencies infrastructure and treatment facilities leading to the however most of the maintenance equipment and discharge of untreated wastewater and the supplies are imported using foreign currency which contamination of water sources. Floods render is difficult to access. individual septic systems dysfunctional in urban areas, with the ground becoming too saturated to Most urban centres visited have issues surrounding percolate the sewage and greatly increase the salary arrears, which compromises delivery of potential for contamination of local groundwater services such as infrastructure maintenance due to sources. heavy frustration among staff. For example, the Redcliff Municipality has a salary back log of 13 The current system lacks flexibility. This is caused months and a bill which currently stands at US$4.8 by Local Authorities’ inability to access revenue million, whilst Hwange Municipality mentioned for upkeep, reliable energy to run the system, and workers lawsuits taking up a lot of collected water needed for proper functioning, ultimately revenue to manage court cases undermining the WASH system.

Without access to adequate sanitation, many urban The system lacks redundancy, particularly with households are forced to rely on improvised urbanisation and population growth continuing to facilities or open defecation, creating serious exacerbate the overstressing of existing wastewater health risks. Despite the JMP reporting low rates of treatment facilities and infrastructure. This is open defecation, the practice is on the rise, due to especially evident in the Greater Harare area. blocked, clogged and over-flowing toilets, where Within the WASH infrastructure system. major there is a lack of piped water to flush (Human expansions, as well as repairs, are required to Rights Watch, 2013). ensure the sanitation of increased urban populations and wider geographic areas. Financial resource shortages within the sanitation and hygiene systems in urban areas of Zimbabwe The WASH system is dependent on capital results in an inability to cope with the pressures of investments, the status of municipal finances, maintaining, upgrading and expanding the system. supply of water and energy as well as the wider The urban poor, particularly women, suffer ecological and environmental system. Failures disproportionately from lack of inclusive access. within the WASH system is at the root of pressures on downstream systems like the health service. WASH in urban Zimbabwe currently lacks robustness and is likely to deteriorate further as the Urban sanitation and hygiene is delivered by levels of water supply in Zimbabwe’s fluctuate as systems that have high centrality both in terms of the climate changes (See chapter on climate systems that it depends on and systems that if change for more information). Citywide sanitation affects. services are critically dependant on the availability of water for toilet flushing. Increasing interruptions It is highly dependent on a well-functioning to piped water supply may deter or prevent people economy. The 2008 economic crisis saw the sanitation systems in most cities virtually shut

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down due to chronic power shortages and an To improve the effectiveness and resilience of the inability to procure essential inputs such as Zimbabwe sanitation services, a wholescale review treatment chemicals, resulting in significant of the regulatory environment and delivery disruptions in the pumping and treatment of water mechanisms is required to develop a practical and and wastewater. targeted urban WASH strategy. This strategy should be adapted to the varied characteristics of The performance of the urban sanitation system is Zimbabwe’s urban centres. The Sanitation and reliant upon a continuous energy supply to enable Water for All (SWA’s) building blocks capture the pumping and treatment of sewerage. This is the key elements that the sector must have in place aggravated by power shortages. For example, to be able to deliver sustainable services and sewage reticulation at Gimboki in Mutare has progressively eliminate inequalities in access. proved very difficult to treat due to power outages These include; 1. Sector policy/strategy, 2. resulting in less hours of pumping. Although Institutional arrangements, 3. Sector financing, 4. energy access stands at 80% in urban areas (2017), Planning, monitoring and review, 5. Capacity energy capacity is a major concern in Zimbabwe, Development. Achieving positive solutions where no new investments have occurred in the within this process will require consultation, energy sector since 1988 (CIA Fact book, 2019) collaboration and commitment from the various (ADB, 2019) stakeholders within the Government of Zimbabwe, Poor water supply among urban centres has also non-government organisations and the private sector. impacted negatively on the operation and maintenance of the sewage works. For example, At time of writing (September 2019), UNICEF the peak of the WASH system deterioration Zimbabwe had commissioned a Joint Sector occurred during a period of water shortage and was Review, conducted in collaboration with the manifested in a country-wide cholera epidemic MLAWCRR., to analyse the WASH system. The which involved 98,592 cases between August 2008 analysis will include a focus on water resources and July 2009, including 4,288 deaths (OCHA, and Urban WASH. This process will likely provide 2015). a useful reference and starting point for further sectoral discussions related to urban resilience and Poorly maintained sewers and treatment works WASH. At a practical level, the development and contribute to health risks by contaminating waterways, including drinking water sources. This analysis of “sanitation/shit flow diagrams” for has significant impact on the health sector, which major urban centres within Zimbabwe would be a beneficial starting point to identify and prioritise is having to respond to the increasing rates of the focus of sector efforts in urban sanitation. sanitation related diseases such as diarrhoea, dysentery and cholera. The JMP indicators for WASH should be The WASH systems in urban areas are central to incorporated into nationwide reporting and several urban resilience related programmes, monitoring to inform sector planning and progress which should be supported and expanded following tracking. This specifically includes the focus on a thorough assessments. The results and analysis ‘safely managed’ WASH services and ‘access for from projects completed by organizations such as all’. Conscious efforts need to be expended on UNICEF should act as a springboard for future ensuring that the voices and rights of marginalised action. and vulnerable people are considered at the forefront of and throughout this process. The 2030 Agenda commits Member States to ‘leave no one

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behind’ and states that SDG indicators should be disaggregated, where necessary, by income, sex, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability and geographic location.

100 80 60 40 20

% of of households % 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 28 Percentage of households with access to improved sanitation facilities (Source: Census, 2012)

100 80 60 40 20

Figure 27 Percentage of households with access to functional toilets (Source: SLB, 2015)

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Solid Waste Management once a week, with efficiency of collection at 75%. These are improved, but still there is some way to go to meet the 100% targets. Moreover, the data Resilience Goal: Reliable solid waste disposal may already prove outdated as recent reports from services. The disposal is done through ethically, Harare show that only two thirds of the 30,000 fiscally and environmentally responsible methods. tonnes of rubbish generated each month are collected, and many residents report they haven’t Established urban areas have developed had regular collection services for at least 5 years institutions to manage solid waste in their (Mukeredzi, 2019). jurisdiction, yet due to economic challenges municipalities do not have the resources they need Collection services are only provided for in formal to run reliable collection services, and processing settlements in municipalities, with informal and disposal is even more challenging. Waste settlements generally not served by waste disposal is therefore often carried out by citizens management systems (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). through illegal dumping. This includes disposal of Few communities have landfills available, with hazardous waste. Specific duties are unclear, and only Bulawayo having a landfill that complies with legislation is not enforced. Communities are trying the Environment Management Agency (EMA) to manage solid waste disposal at a local level requirements (SLB Peer Review Steering through community participation in waste Committee, 2016). There is very minimal recycling management activities. or reuse, with an average of 4% waste recovery reported in 2015, and there is an average of 45% Until the mid-1990s, Zimbabwe’s urban centres coverage of waste receptacles. (SLB Peer Review were regarded as a model of cleanliness within Steering Committee, 2016). Africa and beyond (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). In cities in Zimbabwe, Urban Local Authorities are To pay for solid waste management services, local responsible for solid waste management. The authorities charge households and businesses. Urban Councils Act, Chapter 29:15, designates to Local authorities are not aware of the quantities of ULAs the responsibility to provide solid waste waste or the cost of service delivery. Refuse collection, transportation and disposal services in collection charges are typically not cost reflective areas under their jurisdiction. (Author, Date) and are instead arbitrarily set as a method of income generation for the council. (Muswere & The breakdown of the waste management system Rodic-Wiersma, 2004) (Jerie & Tevera, 2014) is directly correlated to the economic decline of (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). There is an average Zimbabwe. Waste collection efficiency dropping cost recovery of 240% reported in Service Level from 80% in the mid-1990s to 30% in 2006 Benchmarks 2016, along with 78% efficiency of (Muchandiona, 2013). The solid waste fee collection (SLB Peer Review Steering management system in Zimbabwe is currently Committee, 2016). This mirrors the finding of the operating beyond its coping range. Waste 2017 public expenditure review, which found a generation is reportedly increasing, while positive correlation between cost recovery and processing is reported at almost 0% (Makwara & collection coverage. Local authorities with at least Magudu, 2013). full cost recovery tend to collect most of waste in A significant effort has been made by their jurisdictions. However, there are numerous municipalities to improve collection services. The outliers with 300% or more cost recovery, latest available Service Level Benchmarks (2015), suggesting that waste collection revenue is used to showed 83% of homes having collections at least

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subsidise other activities in many local authorities. (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). Of further concern is (World Bank & Government of Zimbabwe, 2017) the poor management of high risk waste, such as medical waste, industrial waste and e-waste. The duty holder for solid waste management is the municipality, but with limited funding from Current solid waste management systems are not national government and donors and levies from inclusive or resourceful, as many citizens, ratepayers not meeting the revenue expected, particularly those in informal settlements, are services are not being delivered to the level excluded and alternative waste management required (Makwara & Magudu, 2013) (Tsiko & solutions are not available. The poor performance Togarepi, 2012). Resources are limited, with many of waste collection and disposal services shows the councils reporting that collections cannot be made system is not robust. due to reasons such as lack of fuel, breakdown or disrepair of collection vehicles (Makwara & The poor performance of waste collection and Magudu, 2013) (Muchadenyika, 2012) processing services in many urban municipalities (Muchandiona, 2013). Nevertheless, in those underlines that the solid waste system lacks authorities where refuse collection vehicles were robustness. The system is also not delivering available, collection services were performing resilience through inclusiveness, as informal adequately, with services described as ‘fair’ and settlements lack access to municipal waste ‘regular’ (Consultations in Hwange and Gwanda, management systems. The lack of alternative 2019). Consultations indicated a direct correlation options for the disposal of waste when municipal between a supply of collection vehicles and a waste collection is not available or is sub-standard supply of collection services. (Consultations, 2019) shows the system lacks resourcefulness, although in Redcliff and Masvingo). In addition, some some community groups do exist to enable waste councils do not have access to the human resources management within their communities through to deliver technically and administratively sound community clean ups and other volunteering. solid waste management services (Makwara & An example of resourcefulness within Zimbabwe’s Magudu, 2013) (Muchandiona, 2013). The urban waste management system is the Clean City governance of solid waste management is poor, Africa scheme. Clean City Africa was created in with duties not clearly demarcated between waste response to the 2018 cholera outbreak and utilizes generators and the municipalities, limiting the a ride-hailing app to connect citizens and mandate of the local authority. businesses with private waste collectors. It now With the breakdown of formal collection services, has a network of 200 franchisees who pick up citizens have turned to other methods of disposing waste and take it to landfill once the customer pays waste. These coping strategies can be positive, through the app. The network covers over 500,000 such as volunteer community clean ups or households in Harare and surrounding suburbs and employing private waste collectors, but are often more than 50 illegal dumps have been shut down negative, such as dumping waste in common areas since the company’s launch (Mukeredzi, 2019). or burning litter in their yards (Mukeredzi, 2019). One franchise in Mbare began as a voluntary youth The environmental impact of this is not considered association which ran six-weekly dump clean ups by citizens (Makwara & Magudu, 2013) (Tsiko & (Urayai, 2019). The 2016 Service Level Togarepi, 2012). This causes negative impacts on Benchmarks (SLB Peer Review Steering other urban systems, for example blocking drains Committee, 2016) highlights the benefits from and putting health systems under strain, for citizen engagement in waste management, example during the 2008 cholera outbreak highlighting health clubs and making of sellable

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artefacts from solid waste as examples. These are finding opportunities to reduce waste at source. some instances of the positive resourcefulness Stronger national level policy and enforcement, exhibited by citizens, as opposed to negative grounded on a polluter-pays principle will also examples like illegal dumping or burning to deal reduce the pressure on the system. Increased with the lack of collection. resources for municipalities and empowering and educating local communities will improve waste Solid waste management systems rely on other management practices urban systems, such as transport and energy (as fuel) as well as municipal financing arrangements. The key to improving the resilience of the urban Solid waste management is closely linked to solid waste management systems is to focus on the sanitation and hygiene. The failure of solid waste whole waste cycle. All stakeholders should management services can result in health consider the opportunities to reduce waste at problems, as well as degrading the environment. source, recycle or reuse (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). To consider the wider picture of solid waste Effective SWM relies on a reliable, well fuelled, management, Zimbabwe would need to develop a transport system to enable regular access for national waste management policy which included collection. Good SWM services also depend on detailed directives for urban authorities. Policies, sufficient municipal finance to employ enough regulations and laws should be considered that staff, maintain and replace vehicles and establish invoke the polluter-pays principle (Makwara & safe disposal sites. Magudu, 2013). The legislative framework is in A lack of quality solid waste management impacts place in the form of the Environmental of sanitation and hygiene in communities, in turn Management Agency (EMA) (Cap20:27) but this leading to impacts on health. For example, the is poorly enforced (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). Further resources are required by municipalities to cholera outbreak in Glen View and Budiriro in provide effective solid waste management services, 2018 was exacerbated by waste pileups within the city (Mukeredzi, 2019). Tevera’s study concluded including equipment, human resources and assets that over 100 people die every year due to diseases such as engineered landfills (Muchandiona, caused by improper household solid waste 2013)(Consultations, 2019). This could be supported by foreign direct investment from waste management in Zimbabwe (Tevera, et al., 2003). collection and waste processing companies who Poor waste management practices such as burning waste also impact on the health of individuals. could highlight best practice in local authorities Workers and scavengers at dumpsites breath in the (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). A key approach, supported throughout the consultation process, is smoke, risking respiratory illnesses. (Tsiko & utilising the community, initially through Togarepi, 2012). Hazardous wastes containing highly persistent chemicals can cause immediate awareness raising activities such as public public health problems as well as long-term human awareness campaigns on litter and recycling, then health and environmental issues if not disposed of through involving key stakeholders and users in the planning and collection of waste to consider appropriately (Tsiko & Togarepi, 2012). The practical solutions to key challenges (Makwara & breakdown of waste management also impacts on ecosystem services through pollution (Makwara & Magudu, 2013) (Muchandiona, 2013). Community Magudu, 2013). and school health clubs can be developed, for example schools can hold drives to collect The waste management system can be made more recyclables to raise money for school programmes resilient by considering the whole waste cycle and (Makwara & Magudu, 2013). However, collection

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of waste, whether by the municipality or the community, is only part of the solution. In the case of the volunteer clean ups carried out in Harare during the 2018 cholera outbreak, these were effective in cleaning up an area, but councils did not have capacity to dispose of all the rubbish collected (Mukeredzi, 2019).

The most recent report on Service Level Benchmarks from 2016 (SLB Peer Review Steering Committee, 2016) made a number of suggestions for how the delivery of solid waste management services could be improved. They echoed the importance of stakeholder participation, acknowledging that when citizens participate in the governance of their local affairs, interventions are sustainable. They also highlighted the importance of investment in expansion and rehabilitation of infrastructure but acknowledged that the capital required was currently beyond reach of many councils, although donor funding could be explored. Key among infrastructure improvements was the establishment of EMA compliant landfills, with the Urban Council Association of Zimbabwe (UCAZ) tasking their Engineers Forum with designing an appropriate landfill, with the aim of this being adopted by EMA as a model design as there is currently no standard design used. Finally, the report made suggestions around looking for sustainable revenue collection strategies and sharing best practice amongst councils, along with reviewing tariff levels so they reflect the local context and the cost of delivering services, including renewal of infrastructure.

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100 80 60 40 20 % of properties 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 30 Percentage of properties with kerbside waste collection (Source: SLB, 2015)

100 80 60 40 20 collected 0 % of generated waste Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 29 Percentage of generated waste collected by council (Source: SLB, 2015)

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Food security the food or import food from neighbouring countries.

Resilience Goal: Physical and economic access to Within the urban systems, formal systems include sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets city council regulated agriculture which people’s dietary needs and food preferences even encompasses semi-urban residential farms, plot during sudden and chronic disturbances. farms, markets and retail shops.

While food is generally available in urban areas There also exist, informal means of production on through markets and urban agriculture, there are vacant land. These include agricultural activities challenges due to affordability, unreliable supply taking place on urban land allocated for other and infrastructure, access to markets, and a lack of purposes but lying idle. Urban farming on policy oversight and leadership. undesignated land or land set aside for other purposes often poses serious urban planning Urban areas in Zimbabwe were established as challenges as well as environmental, social, health industrial centers. Food growth regularly occurs and infrastructural risks. This hazardous urban within commercial farms in semi-rural and rural farming is usually seasonal, occurring mostly areas and food is sold in urban markets such as during the rainy season. People mostly grow maize Mbare Musika (Harare) and retail shops. and other food crops such as sweet potatoes, Zimbabwe is divided into five agro-ecological pumpkins, beans, sugar cane, and watermelons regions in the country. Three are considered alongside road sides, hill slopes, on wetlands, suitable for food crop production while the other along stream banks, vleis, and dumpsites and near two focus on drought resistant crops, livestock electrical, water and sewer infrastructure. There is rearing and game keeping. The country also little awareness of the impacts of these individual imports food, especially grain in times of drought. actions or regard to the potential for environmental In recent years, an unregulated urban agriculture degradation- which are considered secondary to sector has grown and gained wider acceptance and meeting food requirements. This is in stark contrast recognition for its contribution to urban to national, regional, and international economies, food security and wellbeing. commitments made by Zimbabwe towards attaining sustainability. The government of Zimbabwe is committed to ensuring that its policies protects and enhances A growing urban population combined with high food and nutrition security, particularly amongst poverty levels, high unemployment and high the most vulnerable. (WHO 2016). Zimbabwe’s pressure on social services has increased food institutional and regulatory framework insecurity within Zimbabwe’s urban populace. acknowledges the range of informal and formal 37% of the urban population (1.5 million) are food production and access systems. The estimated to be facing food insecurity (World Agricultural Ministry (through its parastatals such Vision, 2018). While food is usually available in as GMB and ARDA) has oversight in regard to urban communities, many urban residents lack the food security, but the government also liaises economic resources to purchase basic nutritional regularly with private food processing companies, items. This has been compounded by price farms, and cluster partners including UN agencies increases for basic commodities which do not and NGOs. The government has no direct control reflect salaries which remain stagnant (National over food pricing, as private players grow much of Level Consultations, 2019). Ultimately, this has resulted in a situation where people access 1 or 2

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meals a day as opposed to at least 3 (Zimbabwe have indicated the lack of resilience of food Vulnerability Assessment Committee, 2019), the security systems in times of crisis. key contributing factor to the high rates of stunted and underweight children in urban areas. High density suburbs like Mbire, Epworth, Mabvuku, Tafara, Norton, Chitungwiza (Greater Although food supply to Zimbabwe’s urban Harare), Makokoba and Cowdry Park (Bulawayo centres is usually consistent, supply chains are Metropolitan Province) have a comparatively high susceptible to environmental shocks including proportion of food insecure households, averaging droughts, floods, cyclones, water scarcity, and can 55% (World Vision, 2018). In these areas, urban also be negatively affected by infrastructural dwellers rely mainly on migrant food vendors from failures and civic unrest (Zimbabwe Resilience surrounding rural areas or peri-urban farms. Building Fund, 2015) (Consultations, 2019). The economic, environmental and political shocks that have occurred in the last decade within Zimbabwe

50 10 45 9 40 108 35 97 30 86 25 75 20 64 15 53 10 42 5 31 0 20 1 0 Ruwa Ruwa Kariba Gokwe Gweru Kariba Gokwe Norton Gweru Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Norton KweKwe Hwange Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi KweKwe Chinhoyi Hwange Chinhoyi Bulawayo Beitbridge Ruwa Bulawayo Beitbridge Marondera Kariba Gokwe Gweru Marondera Norton Chitungwiza Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Victoria Falls Chitungwiza KweKwe Hwange Victoria Falls Chinhoyi Bulawayo Beitbridge Marondera

Chitungwiza CITY DATA CITY DATA Victoria Falls CITY DATA Figure 32 Average Annual Household Cash Consumption Figure 31 Under Weight Percentages By District/City And Expenditure by Province Percentage(Food, Non alcoholic Province (Under 5 Yrs. Old), 2014 beverage)

The resilience of the food security system in Consultations have highlighted the direct link Zimbabwe’s urban areas is negatively pressurized between the resilience of local economies and food by the economic stressors and further compounded security systems. In particular, the economic by shocks to the environmental and ecological decline of areas such as Hwange and Redcliff, left systems. Food insecurity is primarily related to many unemployed and therefore without a poverty levels. The urban poor suffer from a lack disposable income to purchase food of inclusive access yet adapt through accessing (Consultations, 2019). The food security system food through informal markets and altering their also lacks robustness as agriculture is highly consumption patterns to suit availability. susceptible to environmental shocks and climate change. For example, the African Union The system lacks flexibility as urban-based highlighted that a reduced surface and groundwater individuals are unable to draw on diverse resources supply caused by drought resulted in food to maintain food security, and redundancy, as insecurity (AU 2014). Maize, Zimbabwe’s staple people do not have enough capacity to food, is not drought resistant and vulnerable to accommodate disruption to their food security. pests like maize stalk borer. Despite this, towns in

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dry areas like Chiredzi, Hwange and Redcliff reliant on food imports which pose a heavy continue to rely on and prefer Maize rather than economic burden. drought resistant crops, suggesting that the resilience of the food security system can also be The ZimVAC 2003-4 study noted a cascading set affected by the leadership and management of impacts that affects food security. Food security systems in place: there has been a noticeable lack is primarily impacted by economic resilience, of effort by various agencies to popularise drought particularly the individual resilience to shocks such resistant food crops. as rapid inflation increases, as well as the individuals’ economic security through stable In some ways, the food security system employment. Moreover, required healthcare or demonstrates qualities of integration and educational costs, disproportionately felt by resourcefulness. An example of resourcefulness in women and young families, can compromise urban response to changing circumstances has been the citizens ability to be food secure. Natural reshaping of the food retail sector in Zimbabwe’s environmental disasters (for example droughts and cities. Informal markets in urban areas have floods), tend to trigger food price hikes (UNDP, become critical sites for the urban poor to obtain 2017) and subsequently lead to food and nutrition food. This is because most products are broken crisis in urban areas. into small and affordable portions, a process called ‘bulk breaking’. Nevertheless, bulk breaking Weak municipal finance and public works systems primarily allows poor households to gain access to greatly affect the function and resilience of the cereals (rice and maize), which have limited food security system. (FEWS NET, 2017). Local nutritional value (UNDP, 2015). authorities do not have the infrastructure to support production, processing, storage, distribution, Some urban citizens also demonstrate retailing, consumption and waste management of resourcefulness through engaging in subsistence food within the local food service delivery system, agriculture or exploit natural resources, yet most as highlighted in the City Consultations (2019). In depend primarily on purchasing food and Harare, Mutare and Masvingo, production and necessities, to obtain food security (ZimVAC, processing industries have collapsed, and most 2019). retail shops are stocked with imports from neighbouring countries, mainly South Africa. City Food production is not well integrated into urban consultations (2019) in areas such as Beitbridge development planning. There is no direct reference revealed that the poor road networks can hinder to promote and protect urban agriculture within the food delivery into the city and therefore decrease legislature. This was articulated in the City supply and increase security. Consultations (2019), which revealed that all available land in urban areas has been turned into Strategies for improving food security should build residential areas including wetland, without on work by organisations such as FAO, UNDP, provisions for urban agriculture areas. WFP and the Urban Agriculture Forum of Zimbabwe to support food crop farming and Food security in urban areas from a supply animal rearing in urban areas. For the food system standpoint is currently negatively affected by the to be resilient, local authorities should be lack of optimal agricultural production which is supported towards the allocation of land to stretched by frequent droughts in Zimbabwe. sustainable and socially responsible urban Urban citizens ability to access adequate food is agriculture rather than for residential usage.

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Several contemporaneous actions are occurring on rural areas, a similar project targeted on urban within Zimbabwe to strengthen urban food areas could be implemented. security. The Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund has developed a Strategic Framework for Future urban policies need to acknowledge the role Resilience in Zimbabwe (2015), which should be of urban and peri-urban agriculture in urban considered as an effective framework for building development, to ensure urban food supply and resilience and strengthening adaptive capacities to strengthen the livelihoods of poor urban producers. improve food security. The Framework suggests In terms of urban land use policy, it is implementing adaptive capacity interventions recommended that specific land is set aside for focused on livelihoods diversification, human urban agriculture and outlined in Government capital (skills building, health and nutrition status, legislation. This includes removing barriers and education), asset accumulation and diversification, providing incentives for urban and peri-urban climate smart agriculture and access to financial agriculture as well as improving natural resource services (credit), all which underpin food security management in urban and peri-urban areas (FAO, (Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund, 2015). The 2006). Urban farming also provides a productive framework also suggests supporting national, way of using waste and wastewater and can play a subnational and local government policies that role in the maintenance of open green spaces thus provide more economic opportunities, access to reducing the related public costs. Notable jobs and employment and increasing incomes, all examples are the residents in Kambuzuma and of which helps the vulnerable transition out of Kuwadzana Extension who collect waste and poverty and away from food insecurity (Zimbabwe rubbish from piles and spread it in their fields for Resilience Building Fund, 2015). This was compost. In addition, urban planning needs to supported by the City Consultations (2019), which include infrastructural planning which considers identified this as a key action to support food the food supply chain, for example by providing security systems. space for storage and processing/packaging facilities. This would improve the resilience of UNDP Zimbabwe and WFP Zimbabwe are food security systems during periods of partnering on WFP’s Lean Season Assistance environmental and political shock. programme. WFP is piloting the programme in the peri-urban areas of Epworth and Harare, to provide food security assistance to an additional 19,000 people (UNDP, 2019). This program could be expanded into other urban areas. In addition, UNDP Zimbabwe’s project Inclusive Growth and Livelihoods in partnership with the Ministry of Small and Medium Enterprises and Cooperative Development 2016-2020, seeks to strengthen livelihoods through access to increased economic opportunities, provide innovation support for youth, strengthen sub-national capacities to implement pro-poor interventions, and strengthen central capacities to design and implement pro- poor national and local development strategies and policies. Whilst this project is currently focussed

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14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 % of children under 5 under of children % Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 33 Percentage of children under 5 years of age with stunting (Source: Zimstat, 2014)

10 8 6 4 2 0 % of children under 5 under of children % Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 34 Percentage of underweight children under 5 years of age (Source: Zimstat, 2014)

50 40 30 20 10 0 expenditure Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare % of annual household % of household annual Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 35 Percentage of average annual household expenditure on food (Source: Zimstat, 2017.Note: Province-level data)

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Energy

Table 15: Energy Suppliers w/ Installed and Available Resilience Goal: All citizens have access to Capacity affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy Supply source Installed Available services. Capacity in Capacity in MW (Jan-Oct MW (Jan-Oct Although energy infrastructure in Zimbabwe’s 2018) 2018) established urban areas is in place, it is Hwange 920 715 deteriorating due to a lack of maintenance and Kariba 1050 1050 investment and hence is unreliable and does not 3 Small 325 80 cover citizens energy requirements. Further newly Thermals developed and informal settlements lack basic Dema 100 0 provision. Fuel, both petroleum and wood, is used IPPs (Hydro) 29 29 to cover the gap, which has negative consequences IPPs (Biogas) 5 5 on people’s wellbeing and the environment, IPPs (Solar) 3 2.5 especially considering its high cost and erratic Total 2432 1882 supply.

Power supply in Zimbabwe is sourced locally as There are concerns over the future capacity of both well as through imports. Domestic power hydropower and coal in Zimbabwe, which generation in Zimbabwe is primarily from Kariba provided 57% and 42% of the available capacity in South Hydropower Plant and Hwange Thermal 2018 (Africa Development Bank, 2019). Power Plant. Hwange power station still operates Hydropower relies on rainfall, which is below its installed capacity due to lack of increasingly erratic due to climate change can maintenance and old age. Kariba South has causing unreliable generation. For example, severe recently received upgrades and an extension drought in 2019 left water levels low, meaning increasing capacity by 300MW. Three small Kariba was generating less than a third of its thermal power plants also operate, although at a capacity at points (Dzirutwe, 2019). Coal stations third of their combined installed capacity due to are performing under capacity due to age and poor high generation costs and lack of maintenance. maintenance, partly a result of reduced financing Overall, in 2018, the available capacity was only from international bodies and the public sector 77% of installed capacity (Africa Development committing instead to clean energy. For example, Bank, 2019). since 2013 the World Bank will no longer fund There are currently 12 Independent Power greenfield coal projects except under exceptional Providers (IPPs) registered to generate power in circumstances (Africa Development Bank, 2019). Zimbabwe. The installed capacity of the IPPs Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) is solely (energy source = 83% hydropower, 5% biogas and mandated to supply Zimbabwe’s electricity and 2% solar) is 2% of the total electricity transmission owns and operates the five power stations in in Zimbabwe (Africa Development Bank, 2019). Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission This power is sold to ZETDC for transmission and and Distribution Company (ZETDC) buys power distribution as transmission activities are not open from ZPC and is responsible for the transmission to the private sector. and distribution of energy, including meter reading, billing and cash collection.

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area but this is regularly extended (ZETDC, n.d.).

Figure 36: Map showing location of power infrastructure in Zimbabwe. Source: Africa Development Bank The central issue affecting power availability is a Gaps between supply and demand have previously reduced supply reliability, caused by deterioration been covered by importing energy from companies of generating capabilities coupled with degrading in neighbouring South Africa and Mozambique. of the transmission and distribution network. This However, due to outstanding debts of over $70 can result in severe electricity shortages (Africa million, these suppliers have limited the amount of Development Bank, 2019) (Consultations, 2019). power they are prepared to supply to Zimbabwe. Gwange reported supply for 4 hours every 24, On 16th October 2019, ZETDC announced that due while Hwange reported 18 hours (Consultations, to reduced imports from the South African 2019). Due to low water levels at Kariba, company Eskom, which exports to Zimbabwe, load generation constraints at Hwange and limited shedding will go to Stage 2, increasing the length imports, ZETDC introduced a programme of load of power cuts, which were already reaching 12 shedding in May 2019 to manage the shortfall. hours under Stage 1 load shedding (Chaparadza, Load shedding is scheduled for 5 hours a day, 2019). either 5am to 10am or 5pm to 10pm depending on

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Accessibility to electricity for households in urban customers, with local authorities and domestic districts ranges from 96% in Hwange to 61% in customers owing more than 50% of the debt Gokwe, with Epworth an outlier with only 7% of (Africa Development Bank, 2019). It appears that homes having access to electricity (Zimstat, 2012). there is low enforcement of the disconnection Generally, more established urban areas have a policy for seriously delinquent accounts. good level of connection to the grid, but newly developed or informal areas are left behind and Zimbabwe imports all refined oil products, which lack access to power. This is further explored in are mostly used in the transport sector. Most are the section on urban form, which discusses the lack piped over 280km from Beira port in Mozambique. of infrastructure provision to new housing This pipeline has an import capacity of 120 million development. litres a month. Currently, four companies dominate the petroleum market. ZETDC have struggled to maintain the transmission and distribution network in In cities where there was a good distribution of Zimbabwe. Key challenges include foreign service stations to access fuel such as Victoria currency shortages, which affect the procurement Falls, Mutare and Gwanda, this was a positive that of replacement parts, and cashflow issues, resulting helps access to energy, whereas in cities such as in a lack of investment (Africa Development Bank, Hwange and Redcliff where service stations were 2019) (Consultations, 2019). This has resulted in lacking this was raised as an issue (Consultations, regular, and severe, faults, which in a vicious cycle 2019). Across all urban areas there are concerns negatively affects ZETDC revenue. In 2018 Q2, with the cost and the erratic supply of fuel the transmission losses were 4% of supply and (Consultations, 2019). Fuel prices have risen more distribution losses were 13% of supply (Africa than 500% since January 2019 as the currency Development Bank, 2019).Other issues include continues to decline against the US dollar. Major cases of transformer vandalism (Africa petrol and diesel shortages have left petrol stations Development Bank, 2019), and theft of copper closed or with long queues of motorists. cables as described in consultations in Hwange Professional drivers and motorists are spending a (Consultations, 2019) whole day in queues for fuel, working for a day, and then looking for fuel again (Muronzi, 2019). Electricity supply costs are currently not met As well as motorists, demand at service stations through bill payments, with low tariffs and non- has risen due to businesses increasingly using fuel payment of bills (often due to poor quality powered generators to mitigate the issue of services) meaning costs cannot be recovered from extended power cuts. customers (Africa Development Bank, 2019). This reflects issues with governance, as the tariffs are set nationally by the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) and were last reviewed in 2013, but due to pressure from users the tariffs have not been raised since then. In 2018, the economic cost of service provision was estimated at 12.85 US cents per kWh, while the average approved tariff remained at 9.86 US cents per kWh. This is further discussed within the section on trunk infrastructure. User behaviour is also critical, with ZETDC being owed over $1 billion USD by its

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The energy system in Zimbabwe demonstrates The limited access to electricity in informal resilience through reflectiveness and settlements shows the system lacks inclusiveness, resourcefulness. There is a good awareness of while the deterioration of infrastructure and alternative energy sources and these are used reduced generation capability shows the lack of where they are available, although alternatives are robustness in the system. Resilience of energy generally non-renewable fuels such as wood or infrastructure is further explored in the coal. The energy system is not robust, as infrastructure section of this report. infrastructure is deteriorating, or inclusive, as those living in informal settlements struggle to The energy system is central to the overall access energy. resilience of urban areas in Zimbabwe. Water supply, ICT, Solid waste management and the local The energy system in Zimbabwe has some resilient economy rely on energy to operate to full potential, qualities. From consultations, it was clear there while the energy system itself is at the receiving was good awareness of the potential of alternative, end of lack of investment stemming from economic sustainable, energy sources, such as solar, which instability. shows reflectiveness. Residents in Beitbridge. Chipinge, Gwanda, Harare, Hwange, Masvingo, Energy is a key system that other urban systems Mutare, Redcliff and Victoria Falls all highlighted rely on to function, such as to supply electricity to the importance of exploring alternative and power water pumping stations and treatment sustainable energy sources, particularly plants, as discussed in the section on water emphasizing the potential of solar. However, systems. Similarly, without reliable access to fuel, currently solar power is unaffordable for the vast solid waste collection services deteriorate, as is majority of households, and subsidies or other detailed in the relevant chapter. investment will be needed to grow the sector. Energy is a key resource for business and industry, The majority of households (68%) in Zimbabwe needed to run ICT systems and industrial still rely on wood for fuel, and while this can equipment, this is indicated by data analysis in currently be met sustainably, dependence on wood 2016 which highlighted that 40% of energy was at the current rate will strain resources (Africa used for mining and other industries and 20% for Development Bank, 2019). The utilisation of commercial customers, compared to just 28% for alternative, although non-renewable, energy domestic customers (Africa Development Bank, sources such as wood, coal or fuel demonstrates 2019). Unreliable energy supply results in the resourcefulness in the system to deal with the increased production costs and reduces the unreliable electricity supply. However, this is competitiveness of local businesses, ultimately ultimately a negative coping strategy due to the slowing economic growth. According to the economic and social costs of time spent collecting Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries and the wood or queueing for fuel, and the environmental Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, power costs of using wood for energy. Previously, cuts for load shedding cost manufacturers more Zimbabwe relied on importing power from South than $200 million US Dollars from June to August Africa and Mozambique to cover gaps in local 2019 (Banya, 2019). With electricity mostly supply. However, due to outstanding debts, the available between 10pm and 6am, many businesses amount that companies are prepared to sell to are unable to operate at full production capacity, Zimbabwe is dramatically reduced, reducing the with many being forced to change to night shifts or flexibility in the energy system. working reduced hours to match the timings for electricity supply.

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There are policies in place to allow the entry of Key actions proposed to improve the resilience of private companies into the power generation the energy system are: the promote the use of sector, with 12 IPPs currently registered and alternative energy sources, especially solar, supplying energy including Nyamingura through mechanisms such as removing or reducing Renewable Energy, Green fuel and Riverside Solar the duty on solar power; stimulating competitive PV. However, concerns over economic stability pricing through opening the market to Independent and financial de-risking has left the private sector Power Providers (IPPs). reluctant to invest, with more than 30 entities licensed for generation but not operational (Moyo, To address the need for an increase in domestic 2019). This results in the limited diversity of generation, the ZPC drafted a Turnaround energy sources and suppliers and contributes to the Strategies Report in 2017, which detailed a project unreliability of electricity supply. implementation and funding strategy to aid delivery of their pipeline projects, summarised in the table below (Africa Development Bank, 2019).

Table 16: ZPC Project Implementation And Funding Strategy Priority Project Status Committed Projects Kariba South Extension This project has been (Substantial portion of funding (300MW) commissioned and is secured, or funding agreements operational. The project in place. Activities may brought the Kariba already be in execution – Hydropower Station’s installed topmost priority in closing capacity to 1050MW. funding gaps and ensuring full Deka Pipeline Key to the existing Hwange implementation) Power Station and the Hwange Expansion project and drawdowns have already commenced on a USD 28.6 million facility. Hwange Expansion Project Loan agreement already in (600MW base load) place, nearing financial closure and project key to adding significant base load to the grid. Hwange Plant Life Extension Considered to be a crucial stay- (up to 920MW output in-business project for ZPC. restoration) Bulawayo Repowering A USD 87 million line of (90MW) credit has already been secured and tendering is in progress.

Batoka Project Has high level of stakeholder support, large capacity and low

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tariff (between 3.6 and 4.7 US cent per kWh). Commissioning is scheduled for 2024. Candidate Projects Harare II Power Repowering An EPC Contract is already in (Engineering, Procurement and (60MW) place. Afrexim Bank is Construction (EPC) contracts considering extending a in place, activities in progress corporate loan. to enable them to be offered to Munyati Repowering No contract signed yet. the market for funding) (100MW) Consider application for a Line of Credit Mutare Peaking Plant Project Key to providing peaking (120MW) power. An EPC contract is in place. Afrexim Bank is considering extending a corporate loan. Gairezi HydroPower An EPC contract is in place. Fundraising in progress. Gwanda Solar Project Indicative tariff is in excess of (100MW) 15 US cents per kWh. Candidate for renegotiation with the EPC contractor to reduce EPC cost effecting a tariff reduction. Munyati Solar (100MW) Candidate for renegotiation as per Gwanda Solar Project. Insukamini Solar Project Candidate for renegotiation as (100MW) per Gwanda Solar Project. Prospective Projects (no COG Project Project’s main proponent is existing EPC contracts and Hwange Colliery Company therefore in a position to be Limited (HCCL). deferred until the socio- Coal Bed Methane Project CBM resources not yet proven. economic business (300MW) environment has improved.

For consultees, the solution to make access to The table below describes the potential for energy more resilient raised most often was to renewable energy in Zimbabwe (Makonese, 2016). increase alternative energy sources, especially solar but also wind, biogas and local hydropower. This was viewed as more important than rehabilitating the existing network, although this was occasionally proposed (Consultations, 2019).

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Table 17: Potential for renewable energy Energy Source Potential Current Hydropower 17,500 GWh per year Less than 20% exploited technically feasible potential Solar – domestic solar PV and 300MW Only about 1% utilised water heaters Solar – concentrated solar Region suitable for CSP covers Not utilised power (CSP) 250,000km2. Assuming 10% space used and maximum solar to electricity efficiency of 10%, could generate 71 GW (more than 30 times current demand) Geothermal 50MW potential Not gone beyond resource potential inventory work Wind Potential for wind energy for No commercial wind energy commercial and industrial connected to grid. Few systems sectors needs to be further in rural communities and explored in light of moderate clinics wind speeds in Zimbabwe Biomass - bagasse Co-generation potential of Surplus electricity produced 633GWh from sugar production but not fed into grid Biomass - wood 6 million tonnes consumed annually against sustainable output of 4.6 million tonnes Biomass - gasification Timber industry generates Gasification and liquefaction 70,000 tonnes of biomass processes are not yet waste annually (expected to established in Zimbabwe double by 2018) Biogas Technical potential for biogas 400 biodigesters installed – units estimated to be 5000m3 only 8% of biogas potential Coal Bed Methane Estimated that in Hwange and Early stage of development – Lupane basins there is over likely to need fiscal incentives 800 million cubic metres of as initial costs will be high CBM per square kilometre

Suggestions to increase alternative energy sources new construction includes solar energy systems included the removal or reduction of duty on (Ndhlovu, 2019). The government also accelerated required solar powering equipment to encourage its National Renewable Energy Policy in August investment. In July 2019, the government removed 2019 to resolve the energy crisis and has set a import duties on solar-energy-related products, target of producing at least 1575MW from solar by such as batteries and cables, and mandated that all 2030, roughly equivalent to current power

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generation from all sources. In particular, the which are not designed for blending above 10% government is encouraging mining companies, as (Mujuru, 2019). the largest consumers of electricity, to set up their own solar generation plants (Moyo, 2019). In 2019, the Africa Development Bank completed However, renewable energy experts in Zimbabwe an updated Infrastructure Report. The purposes of have recommended that given the economic this report are to provide the Government of conditions, government should focus on Zimbabwe with a masterplan for rehabilitating of developing small-scale local systems, rather than infrastructure assets, reengage the international on large solar power plants, suggesting that the community, and structuring the potential donor government offer loans to pay for local solar operations in Zimbabwe. The report primarily systems, which can be paid back through energy addresses the rehabilitation of trunk infrastructure bills. In support of this, the Zimbabwe Energy and its recommendations are further explored in Regulatory Authority (ZERA) has developed the section covering this. However, some proposals renewable energy feed-in tariffs, although these made were relevant at household level, such as the have not yet been introduced. implementation of a programme for demand side management to improve efficiency of consumer Several suggestions were made to liberalise the use, and adjusting pricing policies so that the cost sector and encourage more IPPs, ultimately of power supply is fully recovered from consumers stimulating competitive pricing (Consultations, (Africa Development Bank, 2019). The 2019). Although recently enacted policies relax rehabilitation of the generation, transmission and licensing and allow renewable energy producers to distribution network would have a significant add excess energy into the grid upon registration impact on reliability of supply at household level, with ZETDC, renewable energy investors have but this is addressed more completely in the also proposed relaxed licensing rules for smaller infrastructure section of this chapter. producers, for example removing the need to negotiate the amount of power you will sell with Considering these proposals, ZETDC has been Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA). implementing demand side management initiatives The government is also planning to launch its for the last 7 years with the intention of reducing Renewable Energy Policy, which will allow for energy consumption and improving operational competitive procurement processes, unlike the performance. Under the DSM programme, ZESA current situation where IPPs solicit for open bids is promoting the use of solar water heaters, solar but hold their licenses without executing projects panels and energy-saving bulbs, and lifestyle (Moyo, 2019). changes such as preparing meals before the peak period (ZESA, n.d.). ZETDC are rolling out a The government has also been attempting to programme of prepaid meters, which both reduce manage demand for fuel through price increases, demand and improve revenue collection, with but this has failed to reduce demand significantly around 500,000 meters installed by February 2019, and lately price increases have largely been although foreign currency shortages are affecting implemented to keep in line with the loss of value the completion of this programme (Nyoni, 2019). of Zimbabwe dollars against US dollars. The government has increased the required amount of There have been price raises this year, for the first blended ethanol within fuel from 5% to 20% this time since 2013, to 38.61 Zim cents/kWh in year, but motorists have argued that this has led to August, and when this was rendered ineffective the fuel depleting more quickly and damage due to inflation, to 162.16c/kWh in October vehicles, mostly imported second hand from Japan, (Chikonoyora, 2019). This attempted to address the

123 erosion of the tariff value following the currency industry to institute a further tariff increase to changes in February and is in line with what ZESA address the power crisis, with the private sector had requested, which is a tariff payable in indicating it is ready to pay a cost reflective tariff Zimbabwe dollars but equivalent to the 2012 US of up to 14 US cents per kWh in return for a dollar tariff of 9.86 US cents per kWh. However, reliable, constant supply of electricity (Tome, there are still calls from government and local 2019).

100 80 60 40 20

Figure 38 Percentage of households using electricity or natural gas as source of energy for cooking (Source: Census, 2012)

100 80 60 40 20

Figure 37 Percentage of households with electricity connection (Source: Census, 2012)

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Health

Resilience goal: All citizens can live healthy lives urban areas the private healthcare sector and enjoy high levels of well-being at all ages. complements the provision of health services. Nevertheless, high user fees limit access to private The health system in cities is well established in healthcare to those formally employed and with terms of policy and planning. However, it is medical aid. The private sector also provides challenged by lack of investment, which causes specialised services. Private health insurance health services to perform poorly. Good schemes cover around 10% of Zimbabwe’s 14 healthcare is becoming increasingly inaccessible million people (UNDP, 2017) to the more vulnerable. While Zimbabwe has committed to numerous Recent major health policies in Zimbabwe include treaty bodies, covenants, conventions, and statutes The National Health Strategy (2009-2013), and that guarantee the Right to Health, this The National Health Strategy (2016- commitment has not been realised and remains 2020). Zimbabwe’s health service delivery is aspirational. This is evident in the quality of health established at four levels: primary, secondary, care services, where resource deficiencies relating tertiary and quaternary. Although the first three to equipment and manpower are commonplace. levels are accessible within most urban centres, the Zimbabwe has not been able to honour the fourth is in primarily available in major cities such 2000 Abuja Declaration and commit at least 15% as Harare and Bulawayo. Primary Health Care of budgetary allocation to the health sector, due to (PHC) is the main vehicle through which health competing priorities. A budget analysis by the care programmes are implemented in the country. Community Working Group on Health showed the All health facilities are regulated by the Ministry of 2018 national budget allocated 7.7% for health, which is well below the minimum threshold of Health to ensure they provide services in line with 15% set at the African Union Conference in Abuja World Health Organization (WHO) standards. Each local authority includes a health department (Nigeria) in 2000 as well as the Sub Saharan responsible for inspecting and monitoring health Africa average of 11.3% (UNICEF, 2016). This is risks in cities (GoZ, 2016-2020). A health service affecting health service delivery, with state-run and municipal services the worst affected. City availability and readiness assessment survey in consultations (Consultations, 2019) revealed that 2015 concluded that urban locations had a higher availability of basic amenities like drugs, health services in cities, including those run by equipment and manpower than rural locations local municipalities are struggling to provide appropriate levels of care. City clinics are (UNDP, 2017) characterised by shortages of medicine and The Government supports the health care needs of appropriate equipment. the population through subsidized rates. Nevertheless, the supply of health services has Urban areas are primarily served by a combination of smaller council run clinics and poly clinics reduced due to cuts in health care budgets since the which service basic health needs and major introduction of Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) in 1992. SAPs removed many subsidies governmental centres which offer specialised and established user fees which particularly services, for example including maternity wings. Government centres depend on the ministry impacted the poor with reducing income (see (MOHCC) structure for resources, whilst council chapter on livelihoods for more information). In

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run clinics are governed separately. Overall due to poorly functioning the water systems (see capacity does not meet demand and is further chapter on water for more details). limited by a lack of advanced medical equipment such as incubators. Although maternal care and family planning facilities and resources are widely available within Government run hospitals and city run hospitals the urban health system, the cost of service deems have all at least one ambulance for emergencies. In the services unaffordable to poorer sections of the urban areas private hospitals and medical aid population. The required direct out-of-pocket societies’ also have ambulances and medical air payment for health services (formal or informal) rescue services that cater for those who afford presents especial challenges for poor and these services. Doctor-patient ratios are very high, vulnerable households. With no public health especially in emergency departments. insurance scheme, most Zimbabweans, other than those exempted from user fees in the public sector, Development partners’ support remains an rely on having cash on hand to seek healthcare. important source of investment in the health sector. This disadvantages women, due to their weaker Due to the current macro and micro economic control of property and resources, over- situation, Government-run and council health representation in vulnerable employment, lower facilities cannot meet the resource needs and are earnings and lower levels of social protection, therefore supported by bilateral agencies, factors which ultimately make them and their multilateral agencies and international NGOs dependents more vulnerable to economic crisis regularly support them. This is mainly done (UNESCO, 2013). through framework funding. For example, ZUNDAF, which is supported by UNDP and The healthcare system in urban areas of channelled through MOHCC. Zimbabwe is struggling to cope due to weak economic conditions and the breakdown of The demand on the urban health system in planning and utility infrastructure, which is Zimbabwe is high due to the prevalence of further compounded by climate change related communicable and non-communicable diseases shocks. The system is increasingly becoming such as cholera, tuberculosis, malaria and non-inclusive against the urban poor, women HIV/AIDs which have arisen because of failures and children who suffer from lack of access. across the WASH, educational system (UNDP, 2017) The health system in urban areas has largely remained robust enough to provide basic services Although progress has been made in reducing the to most people, despite the threat of a near collapse prevalence of HIV/AIDS, Zimbabwe still has one of the health system in 2008 due to economic and of the highest HIV rates in the world at 15%. HIV political crises. Although the centres of Harare rates are slightly higher in urban areas compared to and Kadoma have seen cholera outbreaks, they rural areas, and among people aged 15-24, with have been relatively well-contained by urban 50% of new infections amongst those aged 15-24, health systems. Challenges remain in service gaps identifying them as a particularly vulnerable group and quality of services to ensure effective coverage within the health system. HIV prevalence is 1.5 (UNDP, 2017). In urban areas, the health system times higher among women than men (Zimbabwe faces stresses associated with consistent utility and Resilience Building Fund, 2015). Urban areas also infrastructure failure (particularly energy and water harbour risks from water-borne diseases like shortages), and shocks posed by disaster Cholera and Typhoid. Typically caused and spread emergencies, political and economic instability and

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outbreaks of disease and emergencies. The system Ministry Of Health And Child Welfare, 2009). also faces stressors in the urban context such as Ultimate, this increases the likelihood of diseases water contamination and reduced green spaces, all such as diarrhoea, dysentery, cholera, typhoid and which contribute to the growing burden of disease, schistosomiasis (UNDP, 2017) and therefore particularly NCDs in cities. affects the health system directly (World Economic and Social Survey, 2013). Zimbabwe’s urban health system demonstrates qualities of reflectiveness, where monitoring of Health systems in Zimbabwe also affects the health services and subsequent improvements has functioning of other systems including personal resulted in consistent donor funding. The quality of livelihood systems, and consequentially the ability robustness is also demonstrated in urban areas as for people to guarantee their food security, as well the system provides access to networks of General as the productivity of the overall local economy. Medical Practitioners (GoZ, 2016-2020). In addition, the form of livelihood can also impact Nevertheless, major referral centres have large the health systems in the opposite direction. waiting lists. Occupational hazards emanating from mining can place further stresses on the system (Consultations, Zimbabwe has no national health insurance 2019). system, leading to the health system lacking inclusiveness as quality service is exclusionary and Expansion to a range of programmes, from limited to those who are employed or can afford it. awareness campaigns to disease reduction Medical Aid Schemes cover only those in formal programmes, would help support the health system employment with costs and entry challenges in the short term. Adopting a basic universal keeping informally employed Zimbabweans health coverage would prove extremely beneficial uncovered (UNICEF, 2016). to urban citizens. There is an urgent need for further funding to improve infrastructure, medical The system demonstrates a lack of resourcefulness, supplies and staffing to enhance the overall due to the deficiency of qualified medical and performance of the system. managerial health professionals and medical supplies and inadequate infrastructure (UNICEF, There is an opportunity to strengthen and continue 2016). to expand upon several programmes in urban areas. Efforts should be made to increase the support to On the demand side, the health system is affected the MoHCC, UNDP and UNOPS collaboration primarily by poor infrastructure facilities and which works to introduce electronic health planning, especially relating to WASH, while on management systems. The system ensures the the supply side, the system further goes on to affect availability of real-time data and information for the economic and livelihood generation systems. decision-making, allowing the ministry to detect and respond to outbreaks or other health events The health system in Zimbabwe is interlinked and (UNDP, 2017). interdependent with other systems in the city, including water, sanitation and hygiene, and solid Development partners’ support remains an waste management. As highlighted in other important source of investment in the health sector. chapters, the system is characterized by poor and Nevertheless, external funding should be inadequate water supplies, breakdowns in sewer harmonized and aligned to national priorities to systems, inadequate sanitation, poor waste increase the efficiency of spending. In addition, management, and an increasingly overcrowding there is a need to explore more sustainable and unregulated urban topography (Zimbabwe

127 solutions to finance the health sector, given declining donor funding (UNDP, 2017).

Within the urban context, health programs should target reducing the rates of NCDs and HIV/AIDs through educational programmes targeted at the most vulnerable sections of the population, including young people aged 15-24.

Moreover, projects should focus on preventative solutions which consider developing the WASH systems. There is a need for government policies and investments which necessitate improved land use planning and promoting cleaner and better transport, energy-efficient infrastructure, power generation, industry, and better municipal waste management, all of which are interconnected to the health system.

Further actions identified to strengthen the health system more broadly, which would positively impact urban health systems, include adopting universal health coverage. This tops the global health policy agenda and is included as target number 3.8 of the health targets of the SDG on health (SDG 3) (UNDP, 2017). Ultimately, the Government of Zimbabwe should consider increasing its health budget to 15% of national spending under the National Health System 2, to meet the target set by the Abuja declaration (2001).

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800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

No. of deaths per 100,000 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 40 Maternal mortality rate (Source: Census, 2012

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

Figure 39 Infant mortality rate (Source: Census, 2012)

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Education infrastructure as they benefit from private donations. Resilience Goal: All citizens are guaranteed inclusive and equitable quality education and Council land use planning standards require opportunities for lifelong learning. residential areas to reserve land for a primary and secondary schools in relation to the estimated There is a robust legal and policy framework in population residing there. In practice, unregulated place which recognizes the need for quality population change in some urban areas has resulted education as a basic human right. The current in saturation of the school systems and children quality of education is regarded as excellent, but having to commute elsewhere to school at both resource and demand challenges threaten to primary and secondary level. (PRFT, 2019) weaken the system. In informal settlements schools are established The Zimbabwean Constitution underlines that based on demand and primarily exist informally, education for children should be free and unregulated by educational authorities and not compulsory (GoZ, 2013) and a 4-year education meeting basic educational standards in terms of sector strategy underlines solid institutional infrastructure, equipment and acceptable teacher- arrangements, demarcating responsibilities to the pupil ratios. For example, informal schools in relevant ministries, city councils and school Epworth include class sizes of 70-100 pupils. development committees. The Ministry of Primary School Development Committees are rare within and Secondary Education (MoPSE) promotes and informal schools and often tokenistic when present facilitates the provision of high quality, inclusive at all. (Plan Zimbabwe, 2010) In recent years, and relevant Early Childhood Development (ECD), MoPSE has allied with various partners including Primary and Secondary Education, Special PLAN in attempt to regulate such schools given Education, Life Long and Continuing Education. the high numbers of children they often enrol. City councils provide administrative oversight for all council run schools, determining school budgets Nevertheless, within formal settlements there is a and collecting levies to fund the system. School strong, fully-fledged education bureaucracy in Development Committees are structures expected place which regulates and monitors the provision at all schools to ensure parents are involved in the of education in Zimbabwe from the community to strategic affairs of schools where their children national level which includes MoPSE, City learn. The current educational strategy primarily Councils, Church Authorities and SDCs. These focuses on enhancing teaching quality rather than bodies address various issues including quality building capacity in educational administration assurance, identification of training and research leadership. needs, representation of staff and monitoring occupational standards. In urban areas the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education has jurisdiction in terms of Zimbabwe’s school-age population is recorded as syllabus, teacher recruitment and teacher 5,542,699 (MoPSE, 2016)out of a total population remuneration in most schools. Schools ran by city of 16 million. In urban areas, City Councils are councils and private (including religious) responsible for 151 schools (128 primary and 23 organizations also exist and tend to have better secondary). Significant efforts are underway

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through a national government strategy as well as notably because there are not effective mechanisms through support by external donors (like the Global to monitor these schools, resulting in poor delivery Partnership for Education, GPE) to improve of educational services. educational effectiveness and efficiency, yet significant challenges remain. These challenges are Vocational training in Zimbabwe has been primarily associated with education financing, promoted for children and youths who do not including under funding and low budget execution cannot afford to continue in academic education rates (due to erratic cash release from Treasury after ordinary or A levels. Training is provided by (MoPSE, 2016). Schools have adapted to low several Vocational Training centres across the budgets through training finance managers in country and technical education now begins at schools and focusing on results-based approaches. primary school. In 2019 government has renewed its focus on vocational training by launching a MoPSE/UNICEF (2016) cite the lack of TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and government funding for non-personnel expenditure Training) policy for all youths who cannot access as leading to the rise of a complex system of standard tertiary education. school fees and levies paid by parents. These constitute around 96% of expenditure on non- On the demand side, there are limitations in job personnel expenditure in schools, which are now opportunities available for people with heavily dependent on private fee and levy income. qualifications which reduce demand for an This system is considerably costly to parents, education. This is indicated by the low proportion highly inequitable and means that education of the population with permanent employment in provision is very exposed to the shocks that impact the formal sector. As the ILO have stated “the a family’s capacity to pay the fees. Higher costs majority are employed in the informal economy, result in lower access, with 26.7% of primary characterised by low wages, poor working school children do not access education due to a conditions, little or no social security and range of factors, primarily cost (UNICEF, 2017). representation." (ILO, 2017) Programmatic responses (like Basic Education Although the current education strategy includes Assistance Module – BEAM) have been trailed but estimates that only 10% of children with a are themselves at the mercy of resource disability or other special needs are in school. constraints. (MoPSE, 2016). Children with disabilities face Limited infrastructure at educational facilities, specific barriers such as physical inaccessibility to rehabilitation and reconstruction backlogs and high schools and the limited capacity of schools to maintenance costs affect the quality of education deliver disability-inclusive pedagogy. Girls with services. This was corroborated by city disabilities have higher vulnerability to violence consultations which revealed that schools have old and greater challenges with menstrual hygiene infrastructure and there has been an increase in management. Education Management Information urban population resulting in a shortage of schools. System (EMIS) national data for 2014 shows that This was explicit in Victoria Falls which has only 20% of girls in secondary schools drop out due to two government schools, Chinotimba primary and early marriage, 15% due to pregnancy, and 35% secondary respectively. (Consultations, 2019) This due to a lack school fees while 51% of boys drop has resulted in children attending private schools, out due to a lack of school fees (MoPSE, 2016). some of which are not registered, resulting in poor The educational system shows resilience delivery of education. The issue of private schools capabilities when it comes to the integrating policy was mentioned in all city consultations, most

131 and practice. There is a high understanding of the through their governance committees providing a cascading effect of a good education on other venue for parents and carers to interact on a range systems. However, the educational system it is of issues, including (potentially) disaster challenged by lack of inclusivity and preparedness. The school system is often where a resourcefulness. targeted environment for behaviour change programs like nutrition, sexual health, HIV or Zimbabwe’s education system demonstrates WASH programming in delivered. (Colclough, et qualities of flexibility, where a willingness to al., 2018). monitor services and strive towards improvement has resulted in ongoing donor funding. For The development of a future education strategy example, the World Food Program has continued provides a good platform for improvement of the to support school feeding programs in Zimbabwe, system entirely. Focus should be placed on the importance of which was acknowledge by the vocational training and employment opportunities. Vice President in 2018: “School feeding is an essential tool for development which Zimbabwe The development of a future education strategy considers as an investment in a special context, provides a good platform for improvement the other than merely attracting learners to school. We entire system. Focus should be placed on need to bear in mind that failure to invest in food vocational training and creating employment and nutrition security, particularly for children, opportunities for graduates including a funding would retard the development of our countries in mechanism to support their start-ups. The current socio-economic terms (WFP, 2002). education strategy runs until 2020. The development of a new strategy for the sector The system lacks inclusivity as it does not serve represents a significant opportunity to influence female students and students with disabilities sector planning and budgeting and to incorporate a equitably due to lack of health services, cost risk resilience approach similar to the one UNDP barriers and lack of provision for accessibility in has developed in the Pacific (UN, 2018)That the buildings itself. The system demonstrates a approach includes the involvement of resilience lack of resourcefulness primarily as a result of the advocates within line ministries, working at both lack of qualified professionals. The heavy reliance Ministry and local levels and engagement with on fees and levies on families, lack of classroom finance and treasury agencies on the importance infrastructure and equipment, and insufficient and risk mitigation advantages of properly focus on local governance and administrative resourcing a resilience approach. The strategy capacity means what should be a cornerstone approach also provides an opportunity to examine sector for broader system resilience is in a fragile current approaches (including allied programs like state. school feeding and WASH) and to explore new approaches in education that seek to empower The educational system affects the livelihood local leadership to develop ways of working that generation system and local economic systems. It target local issues – like the Indonesian Inovasi is affected by infrastructure – availability of program. The Government of Zimbabwe could electricity, WASH systems and food security. examine embedding wider learning in existing In Zimbabwe, a strong urban educational system subjects within the school curriculum – including those related to WASH/health as well as nutrition brings wider benefits. Schools are typically the and urban food security. focus for many communities, servicing young people from the surrounding neighbourhoods and

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Access, financing and quality of education should making processes more generally if urban be improved to improving resilience outcomes for resilience is to be strengthened across society. This young people in Zimbabwe. Full provision and could be achieved through school-based or allied expensing of education budgets is required, along programs to improve children’s knowledge about with significant additional resourcing through how to protect themselves from abuse; child and partners and donors like GPE. Zimbabwe should adolescent-friendly services; adolescent-focused look at measures taken in other parts of the world sexual and reproductive health services; and to remove formal and informal school fee community-based children’s group sessions arrangements and include this objective in future focused on resilience and safety awareness (Plan partner funded education financing arrangements. International, 2018) (Suthanthirajraraj, 2019).

Zimbabwe is not a partner for the World Bank’s Global Program for Safer Schools (World Bank, 2017). The program demonstrates one approach to enhancing the physical resilience of schools. The lack of investment in classrooms in Zimbabwe is in itself a challenge but should investment increase (including as part of any post-disaster rebuild), consideration of safer design principles should be incorporated. Most schools do not have DRM policies which would enable them to come up with disaster preparedness plan. Once these plans are in place they can determine hazards they are exposed to and resources they require to withstand them. This can then enable them to train staff and pupils to emergency preparedness drills that deal with those hazards.

Community groups and on-government organizations can increase knowledge sharing opportunities through programs aligned to a broader urban resilience strategy and facilitate the engagement of young people on urban resilience, in school settings or through other governance mechanisms like city councils. These sorts of consultations in urban settings are likely to uncover issues related to the school neighbourhood and the journey to school – in effect looking at the whole experience, in an urban setting of travelling to and from, and attending school. Schools operated by City Councils may be uniquely placed to address and manage approaches to resilience and safety that deal with schools and the issues that surround them in urban settings. It is critical that youth and children are brought in to decision-

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100 80 60 40 20 0 % of of population % Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 43 Primary education completion rate (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data)

Figure 42 Secondary education completion rate (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data)

Figure 41 Tertiary education completion rate (Source: Census, 2012. Note: Province-level data)

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Housing

Resilience Goal: Housing that is safe and services provision (see chapter on urban form for affordable for all urban citizens more information), due to continuous rural to urban migration of people seeking employment in While Urban Local Authorities (ULA) in cities. It is worth noting that on average Zimbabwe have clear plans and policies in approximately 14% of the urban household income place to deliver safe and affordable housing, in Zimbabwe is spent on housing, which is access to shelter in urban areas has fallen significantly lower that international standards. behind the current need and urban citizens, This indicates that urban dwellers on average are especially the poor, are having to employ not prioritizing the access of decent housing and unsustainable coping mechanisms to access settling for sub-standard quality, which is related to shelter. their inability to access supporting housing loans due to poverty and work in the informal sector. The Ministry of Local Government, Public Works Moreover, urban residents spend 48.6 % of income and National Housing is the lead agency in the on food, which indicates where resources are provision of a legislative and policy framework. channelled instead. Local authorities operate within this to provide The National Housing Policy of 2012 promotes housing and shelter in urban areas (see chapter on incremental development. The policy introduces urban governance for more information). Housing Public Private Partnership and a participatory is delivered currently under the 2012 National approach where CBOs are involved in housing Housing Policy. It seeks to employ best practice delivery (GoZ, 2015a) (see chapter on Urban and reduce bottlenecks to housing delivery (ICED, policies, regulations and land-use planning context 2017) (GoZ, 2015a). for more information). The national government is Within provisions of the 2012 housing policy, a priming to launch a large rural and urban housing variety of instruments were applied to encourage programme called Command Housing, which aims alternative housing supply. These included the to deliver 500,000 housing units in the next 10 allocation of un-serviced stands (plots) to years. Although detailed information is not yet individuals, housing cooperatives and building within the public domain, limited documents societies to encourage self-help incremental indicate that the programme will be delivered in housing schemes. Nevertheless, although this close partnership with the private sector and focus increased housing stock, it was characterized by an on building modern high-rise housing to reduce the upsurge of informal housing and illegal rate of informal settlement growth. development on legal plots and many houses being built on land that lacks decent roads and trunk services like water supply and sewerage (National Level Consultations, 2019). This has resulted in slum like conditions even in planned areas. Peri- urban areas which were acquired by the government in recent decades under land reforms, have become prime sites for this mis-match of housing and

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Affordability of housing 30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Average Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls

Figure 45: Average Annual Household Cash Consumption Expenditure by Urban Local Authority (Source: Zimstat)

Figure 44 Aerial image showing peri-urban areas of Epworth (Photo by Sachin Bhoite)

The rapid urbanization and ad hoc expansion of potential emergency shelters (National Level informal settlements in urban areas compromises Consultations, 2019). living conditions and the safety and security of people. There is a need to build urban resilience in The traditional robustness of housing delivery informal settlements through enhancing disaster standards in Zimbabwe has reduced the systems risk reduction measures. With regards to provision inclusivity. In combination with the national of shelter during emergencies, this is currently governments policy of deregulating land reform, it limited to a few Urban Local Authorities having has contributed to the proliferation of housing in identified local schools and religious buildings as areas which lack associated urban services.

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Cities in Zimbabwe carry a legacy of robustness in The current condition of housing delivery is housing delivery standards. However, stringent and negatively affected by the inability of urban areas high standards for housing delivery has become a to provide secure formal livelihoods for urban major hurdle (GoZ, 2015a) for Local Authorities to citizens. With a very low portion of the population delivery formal housing for all. Rigidity of in formal employment (See chapter on livelihoods application of RTCP Act and high standards set in and employment for more information), most policies are considered unresponsive to the current people do not have adequate savings to buy or rent needs (see chapter on Urban and land use planning decent housing, nor can they access housing for more information). mortgages (GoZ, 2015) (Consultations, 2019). The government’s ability to help people bridge the Policy reforms in Zimbabwe have been gap in housing affordability, is hampered by the characterized by their inclusivity, for example, prevailing macro-economic instability (see chapter indigenous people who were forcibly moved out of on local economy for more information). This has urban areas in colonial time, were able to move led to the government not being able to seek back after major land reforms were enacted in conventional housing finance to build social early 2000s. The reform saw the acquisition of housing. peri-urban farm lands previously owned by white farmers for the expansion of urban areas for The quality of housing that urban citizens manage individual detached housing. It is believed that to ‘occupy’ either legally or illegally is also before these reforms, no public land was available affected by the inability of Local Authorities to to squat, hence only 3.4% of the urban population provide services (GoZ, 2015) like water supply, were living in slums (UN-HABITAT, 2003). sanitation and waste collection, particularly in Expansion of these lands coupled with the local increasingly sprawling peri-urban areas. While authorities’ inability to deliver urban services and there are also general issues with degrading and lack of capacity to oversee development has led to aging infrastructure (Consultations, 2019) new the urban poor occupying peri-urban areas in infrastructure has been planned using outdated informal settlements or poorly services and over- building codes and to higher standards than needed crowded legal settlements (See chapter on urban (UN, 2005) - but not ultimately delivered. This has form for further information). led to residents by-passing the establishment of trunk infrastructure (see chapter on trunk Flexibility is demonstrated by the individual infrastructure for more information), for example actions of individuals to meet the housing gap. constructing houses even before the development This includes negative coping strategies such as of roads. ULA's are making efforts to build roads, backyard illegal extensions of existing home on sewer, water and electricity but lack the municipal legal plots to provide for the underserved demand financial resources to deliver. of housing. In addition, existing landowners take advantage of availability of excess land and lack of Furthermore, a lack of capacity and funding has enforcement, to illegally sub-divide and extend led to laxity in enforcement of Bye Laws by some houses and sell or rent at rates lower than formal local authorities, causing an increase in very low housing to the urban poor. quality illegal settlements on partially developed and interstitial spaces. Overcrowding in houses is The performance of the housing system is closely observed in peri-urban settlements like Epworth linked to macro-economic instability, lack of which have seen 20 persons per 300 sq m- infrastructure, effectiveness of policy, particularly youth and working age populations unemployment and informality.

137 who have moved to urban areas looking for better opportunities (GoZ, 2015a). In areas where formal housing is provided, it is unaffordable to most urban citizens.

There are several opportunities to improve the housing crisis in urban Zimbabwe, a number of which involve state-led interventions and changes to standards and planning guidelines.

There have been various attempts to respond to the gap in housing provision in Zimbabwe. An ambitious programme by the government of Zimbabwe, Command Housing, is set to deliver 500,000 new homes across the country and will rely on involvement of the private sector and general improvement in livelihoods provision across the country to ensure the homes are affordable. A key method of addressing the housing gap suggested in literature is to decentralize and empower local authorities to shape nuanced policies to deliver housing (GoZ, 2015a). This may lead to area-specific housing and infrastructure standards that are considered realistic and provide the flexibility to promote innovative models. The provision of financial subsidies and loans to individuals and communities for incremental housing development (Chirisa, et al., 2016) which is already available in some areas, could also be considered.

The DRM capacity assessment has highlighted the urgent need to build urban resilience in informal settlements through disaster risk reduction measures targeting existing hazards at shelter and settlement level. This should be accompanied by standardized national guidelines for (re- )construction of shelters especially in flood prone areas, which include guiding principles for site selection practices.

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100 80 60 40 20 0 % % of households Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 41 Homeownership rate (Source: Census, 2012)

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi % % of expenditure annual Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 46 Percentage Of Annual Household Expenditure On Housing (Source: Zimstat, 2018. Note: Province-Level Data)

100 80 60 40 20 0 % of of households % Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 47 Percentage of households living in improved housing typologies (Source: Census, 2012)

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Dimension 2: Economy, Society and Livelihoods

This dimension relates to how social and economic Subsystems included in this section are: systems enable urban populations to live peacefully, and act collectively. Included within 1. Formal & informal local economy this dimension are the systems that enforce law 2. Livelihood and employment and order and ensure fiscal management. Also 3. Social Welfare and protection considered is the environment within a city that 4. Safety and Security creates collective identity and mutual support. Social capital

This report has chosen to analyse issues related to economy and society from the perspective of building social and economic support to urban communities. All sections under this dimension are therefore analysed from institutional, regulatory and human angles.

While the sub-systems are analysed in different ways, broadly, challenges and strengths are analysed to include:

• Institutional: Role of government and non- government organizations in supporting the urban community to improve their socio-economic welfare. • Regulatory: Roles of the legal and policy interventions to ensure better community actions • Human: How people respond to and self- organize to face challenges and leverage opportunities in formal and informal ways.

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Dimension 2. Economy & Livelihood

Summary Urban residents rely on negative coping strategies defined by their flexibility and resourcefulness. Urban dwellers in Zimbabwe benefit from a Flexible actions include circular migration and relatively strong social capital which contributes people moving between formal and informal jobs. to an extent to the resilience of households and Resourcefulness observed includes establishing informal workers. Studies demonstrate that by informal trade, cutting back on essential goods and tapping into existing networks, new migrants have services, utilising remittances, or becoming been able to come together to find solutions. involved in illegal activities like prostitution and theft. At present, the economic ability of Livelihoods and local economies in Zimbabwe’s households to absorb shocks and stressors is urban centre are characterised by their informality extremely limited. Variety of shocks (droughts; while the formal sector is weak. Despite this, the floods; cholera outbreaks; civil unrest) are likely to informal sector remains unacknowledged and have very significant impact in most urban areas, unsupported by local authorities and national while social welfare, protection and other social government. Private sector investment and growth services to mitigate them, are insufficient. has not yet resulted in action. Improving local economy and livelihoods in urban Long term macro-economic instability, including areas can deliver enormous benefits to urban regular economic shocks, has a central impact on citizens.Local economy and livelihood subsystems livelihood and income generation. Skills exist but have the highest influence across all dimensions, the weakness of the market severely limits directly impacting the maintenance of basic needs, opportunity (jobs) and drives out-ward migration and being directly influenced by the infrastructure, to neighbouring countries like Zambia and South ecosystem and levels of governance. Africa as well as internationally(brain-drain). Educated youth in cities are dismayed by an Informal and entrepreneurial sectors of the inability to apply skills and knowledge to earn a economy require formal recognition and reform decent living. through policy and by-laws. This will initiate improved public and private sector cooperation. Safety-nets and remittances provide short-term ULA’s should be given the responsibility and relief, but formal mechanisms of social protection resources to initiate Local Economic Development & welfare are fragmented, and target inefficiently. (LED) plans which are labour-intensive, Weak economic and livelihood systems reduces economically diverse and re-industrialise using the resilience of urban populations against a range local skills. In the short term, community-driven of potential shocks and stressors. All urban areas cash injections and ‘cash-for-work’ initiatives such of study should be considered highly or very as those pioneered by the WFP have great value highly vulnerable. Centres with a narrower potential, especially if integrated with service- economic base (Redcliff) or those clustered around delivery. large cities (Ruwa, Epworth, Chitungwiza) are particularly vulnerable.

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Formal and informal local economy

Resilience Goal: Cities are conducive to and informal urban economies (EIU, 2019) investment and growth, are fair, where all (UNDP, 2019); (World Bank, 2019); (ICED, companies play by the rules and where all citizens 2017); (LEDRIZ, 2015) (Mandisvika, 2015); stand to benefit. (Chirisa, 2009). Today, the formal economy represents a significantly smaller share of The ongoing macroeconomic transition will frame economic activity compared to the informal how local urban economies respond to the need to: economy in urban areas. Formal activity is mostly bolster formal employment (especially in the found in the services sector, and the natural service sector); support informal employment that resources/mining sector (Malinga, 2018) Zimstat, disproportionately invoves the urban poor; 2012). The manufacturing sector only employed enhance tax revenue and user charge collection 3.4 per cent of the employed population in urban rates. areas in 2017 (ZimStat, 2017).

The key issues in the country’s urban economies The majority of urban employment and local are framed by the ongoing macroeconomic economic activity takes place in the informal transition as Zimbabwe reengages with economy. Most estimates differ with regards to the international finance markets and seeks to restore size of the informal economy in Zimbabwe. A confidence in the economy to attract FDI. recent report by the UK Department for A range of issues has damaged the resilience of International Development (DFID) concluded from local urban economies: poor governance and a lack field observations that the whole Zimbabwean of market confidence; the collapse of once- economy is informal. In addition, other recent studies demonstrate that more workers are productive and strong export based commercial employed informally than formally and that this agriculture sector due to agrarian reforms; the deindustrialization of urban areas particularly the trend is increasing (ICED, 2017); (LEDRIZ, 2015) decline of the manufacturing sector; exodus of In 2014, 87 per cent of those employed held informal jobs in urban areas (World Bank, 2019). multinational companies and foreign direct Other estimates show that at the national level, 96 investment. Ultimately, between 2001 and 2008 there was a 50% reduction in total economic output per cent of the labour force was engaged in (IMF, 2019); (ICED, 2017); (LEDRIZ, 2015) ; informal employment, up from 81 per cent in 2000 (EIU, 2019) (UNDP, 2019); (World Bank, 2019); and 27 per cent in 1991 (UNDP, 2019); (ZEPARU, 2016). (Malinga, 2018); (Mandisvika, 2015).

Local urban economies exhibit a diminishingly Despite varied numerical conclusions, it is certain sophisticated formal economy (UCLGA and that most of the local urban economy is based on tacit or unwritten arrangements and structures of LEDNA, 2016) and have shifted towards self- power which exploit the urban poor (ICED, 2017). employment, contributing to a general surge of the informal economy (World Bank, 2019); A key challenge associated with the size and (Mandisvika, 2015). Ultimately, and most prevalence of the informal sector, is the inability of worryingly from an economic development local and national governments to collect tax revenue and user charges from businesses which standpoint, there has been a continuously sharp ultimately reduces their capability to fund and drop in the labour productivity of both the formal deliver urban services (UNDP, 2019) (LEDRIZ,

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2015) (Mandisvika, 2015) Other critical challenges However, the current resilience capacity of local with the informal economy include low urban economies to shocks and stresses is weak productivity levels, the lack of social protection and ongoing economic reforms may subject and poor working conditions. (ICED, 2017) economies to various further shocks and stresses (LEDRIZ, 2015) (Mandisvika, 2015) (Chirisa, with negative short-term impacts (World Bank, 2009). These are further detailed in the ‘Livelihood 2019). The domestic market remains inherently and employment generation’ section. weak and inefficient. The two main sectors of economic activity in Zimbabwe, agriculture and The medium-term outlook for economic resilience mining, are both very labour intensive yet exhibit capacity may be positive due to ongoing reforms, very low levels of labour productivity and are however, negative short-term impacts can be highly exposed to external shocks and stresses (e.g. anticipated. Sectoral economic diversity is healthy climate and global markets). in nearly all urban centres. However, the buffer of informal employment as a protective/coping The informal sector can, to some extent, be mechanism is rapidly shrinking. considered a buffer or coping mechanism that effectively absorbed labour following the decline The ongoing economic transition indicates a of formal employment. However, the extreme potentially positive trajectory of resilience capacity prevalence of informal activity in the economy in local urban economies. The major role of the indicates weak and rapidly thinning economic national economy in enabling the performance of conditions and opportunities in the informal sector localized systems and the stated government (Figure 4). The resilience buffer of informal intention to carry out structural, political and activity is virtually depleted with limited economic reforms to relaunch the national absorption capacity remaining which highlights the economy, indicates this system’s resilience need to re-establish a strong formal economy capacity is likely to improve in the medium term. (UNDP, 2019).

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Figure 48: GDP and informal employment (Source: Authors, 2019 based on GDP data from World Bank (2019) and informal employment data from ZimStat (2012) 25 120%

100% 20

80% 15

60%

10 40%

5 20%

0 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP Share of informal employment in Zimbabwe labour force

Sectorial diversity is generally considered a reliant on their principle sectors. However, the barometer of economic resilience with the quantitative analysis identifies that four urban underlying assumption that if a shock or prolonged centres (Beitbridge, Epworth, Lupane and stress affects one sector then labour and capital can Shurugwi) do exhibit lower levels of economic transfer to another sector, and the local economy is diversity and therefore have less resilience capacity not wholly dependent on the performance of any than other urban centres to shocks and stresses (see one sector. (Storper, 2013; Glaeser and Joshi- Figure 5). These four locations require further Ghani, 2015; (Zhang, 2015) Nevertheless analysis, but initial observations offer some overarching macro-economic conditions and indication of their unique economic circumstances. changes have economy wide impacts rather than Beitbridge is the most important border town with affecting individual sectors so the risk of sector South Africa while Epworth is a large settlement specific shocks and stresses is less acute in outside of Harare, and both exhibit considerable Zimbabwe than elsewhere. Agriculture is an dependence on employment in the service sector obvious exception in the Zimbabwean context which is the cause of their low economic diversity where agrarian reforms have had considerable (ZimStat, 2012). Lupane is a primarily rural area impact on an individual sector primarily in rural with more than half of the population involved in areas with fewer direct impacts on urban agriculture and Chirundu is a border post inside a economies. Quantitative analysis of economic natural park (ZimStat, 2012). diversity at the urban district level reveals that the vast majority of Zimbabwe’s urban centres exhibit adequate economic diversity and are not overly

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Urban Karoi Karoi Ruwa Kariba

Centre Gokwe Gweru Harare Lupane Norton Rusape Bindura Bindura Mutare Mvurwi Redcliff Chiredzi Gwanda Hwange Kadoma Chegutu Epworth KweKwe Chinhoyi Chipinge Bulawayo Chirundu Masvingo Plumtree Shurugwi Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Marondera Chitungwiza Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Falls Victoria Economic 2 3 4 3 3 4 3 N.A. 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 3 Diversity

Figure 49 Economic diversity by urban centre (Source: Authors, 2019)

The local economy is intrinsically interwoven with level to enhance informal workers’ rights and the macroeconomic and political situation of the mitigate the short term negative impacts of country. Restricted international capital flows and macroeconomic reform. volatile global markets for commodities and minerals impact labour migration and ultimately the performance the non-tradable service sector. Various strategies have been proposed to improve The availability of formal employment the performance of the local economy with most opportunities impacts youth development and attention paid to actions requiring government training. input. Firstly, in response to the weak domestic The local economy is intrinsically interwoven with market, it is suggested that Zimbabwe adopt an the macroeconomic and political situation of the export-oriented industrial strategy which would country, the most significant factors affecting the include easing trade restrictions and targeting urban formal and informal economies. Economic specific industries which may demonstrate instability hinders foreign inward investments as comparative advantage, to generate foreign well as inward migration country. Volatile global exchange revenue through exports. (World Bank, markets for commodities and minerals directly 2019) (Zhang, 2015). In addition, Zimbabwe could impact the mining sector’s performance which in identify labour-intensive activities with positive turn influences the labour migration flows between labour productivity growth forecasts (e.g. urban and rural areas, and ultimately affects the manufacturing) to bolster formal employment and performance of the non-tradable services sector revitalize the former industrial base. and the informal economy. (ICED, 2017). The lack It may be appropriate to extend the capacity of of formal employment opportunities hinders the local government in urban economies. Local educated youth’s employability as it does not have governments could take on a coordinating role in access to training opportunities. (World Bank, Local Economic Development (LED) plans, attract 2019) (Mandisvika, 2015) FDI. Such a revised approach would require local Opportunities exist for urban centres, with government to focus on establishing a conducive national support, to pursue an export-oriented environment for local economic growth, by industrial strategy to generate foreign exchange fostering partnerships between civil society, revenue (e.g. mining) and develop labour-intensive entrepreneurs, universities, the private sector, as activities to bolster formal employment (e.g. well as support a competitive integration of the manufacturing). Local government could take on a informal sector (Mandisvika, 2015) (UCLGA and coordinating role in Local Economic Development LEDNA, 2016). Consultations with city (LED), and move beyond the limited existing stakeholders indicated that some municipal service provision mentality. Local government governments are pursuing a more enabling could also enhance partnerships at the municipal approach, particularly for the informal sector.

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Thirdly, the opportunity exists to prioritise partnerships and cooperation at the municipal level. Central government has passed many of the necessary reforms to stabilise and transform the economy, which will likely cause short-term, negative effects on the population. Municipal governments can play a key role in easing this transition period. While the institutional framework for devolution seems to be appropriate, central government can ensure municipal governments are given the right tools and freedom to be more responsive (UNDP, 2019). (UCLGA and LEDNA, 2016) (LEDRIZ, 2015) (Zhang, 2015) (Brown, 2006) (World Bank, 2019) (Njaya, 2015).

Efforts to facilitate the emergence of partnerships between economic actors (communities, formal and informal actors, universities, local governments, etc.) may foster the coexistence and fair competition of formal and informal activities. In parallel, local governments could proactively engage with the informal sector to work towards a progressive formalisation and regularisation of informal activities and overall improvement of efficiency. Further recognition of informal workers’ rights could improve their working conditions and social protection. Consultations conducted as part of this study identified some local authorities have made initial steps by providing space and stands for informal workers across their local areas. Further integration with the informal sector may include: improved opportunities for informal workers to access finance and technology; enforcing user charges as a transitional step toward formalisation and ultimately the ability to levy taxes; and the simplification of the taxation system and business registration process to reduce constraints to formalisation.

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50 40 30 20 10 GINI coeffcient 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 52 GINI coefficient of economic inequality (Source: Zimstat, 2015)

100 80 60 40 20 0 years age of years Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge % of population above 15 15 above of population % Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 51 Labour force participation rate (individuals > 15 years of age) (Source: Census, 2012)

100 80 60 40 20 0 % of new businesses Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 50 Percentage of businesses started in the last two years (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

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Figure 54 Employment in the informal sector (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

100 80 60 40 20 % of businesses 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 53 Percentage of businesses with majority female ownership (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

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Livelihood and income generation

Resilience Goal: There are opportunities to become a significant aspect of household achieve full and productive employment, and livelihoods (ZimStat, 2018). Analysis of ZimStat decent work, for all. data indicate that remittances range from 25 to 60 per cent of household income across 32 urban The scale and nature of urban employment and centres. livelihoods has changed significantly in recent years while unemployment remains statistically Low levels of cash income, compounded recently low. There has been a noticeable increase in - by restrictions on foreign currency, contribute to informal and vulnerable work; fluctuations in low levels of liquidity with 70% of all payments in income and expenditure (e.g. food now accounts Zimbabwe made electronically (ICED, 2017). for 48.6 per cent of urban household expenditure); Lack of access to credit is also a livelihood restrictions on cash flow and liquidity: reliance on challenge at the household level as loan facilities remittances have historically been aimed at SMEs instead of workers in the informal economy (LEDRIZ, 2015). The scale and nature of urban employment and Livelihoods are also affected by low supply of livelihoods have changed significantly in recent transport due to fuel shortages, lack of public years while unemployment remains statistically vehicles, traffic jams, and the restrictions of low. Significant increases in informality, informal transport operators from city roads. To fluctuations in income and expenditure, and cope with rising transport costs, a noticeable shift unreliability of income and availability of from ‘kombis’ (public vehicles) to ‘pikidhas’ consumption items have characterised livelihoods (pickup trucks) can be observed, which are said to at the household level (ZimVAC, 2019) (ICED, be safer, offer comparatively cheap prices and do 2017) (Chirau, 2012) SAME AS ABOVE. not charge for carrier bags (Consultations, 2019).

The balance of income to expenditure has created Most employment is in the informal economy challenges for the employed population and where working conditions are characterized by livelihoods at the household level. For example, in high vulnerability. As described by the Labour and May 2014, 42 per cent of the employed population Economic Development Research Institute of in Zimbabwe was below the total consumption Zimbabwe, this includes: low negotiating power poverty line (ZimStat, 2015). Moreover, our (employer – employee relationships described as quantitative data analysis indicates that food ‘take it or leave it’); irregular revenues from month accounts for more than 40 per cent of household to month, often on a commission basis in the retail expenditure in a quarter of urban centres (ZimStat, and manufacturing sectors; wages paid late, 2017). In their latest Urban Livelihoods especially for employees whose employer is also in Assessment state that at least 38% of urban the informal economy; lack of social protection as households are considered to be poor (ZimVAC, the National Social Security Association stipulates 2019). clearly that it is not required to provide social The constrained access to inputs (finance, cash, security to workers in the informal economy; fuel, transport, food, water) (ICED, 2017) (Chirau, absence of contract; long working hours which can often extent to weekends and public holidays; high 2012) has contributed to large scale labour exposure to environmental conditions especially migration, generating remittances that have during the rainy season or other climatic events

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(informal workers are the most prone to water- has grown exponentially from the late 1980s to borne diseases), lost or damaged products, working reach 5% of the national agricultural output, close to overflown garbage sites, etc. In response covering up to 30% of the food needs of to these conditions, some workers have developed households engaged in urban agriculture (ICED, their own social security schemes (“kufusha mari”) 2017). Informal activity itself can be considered a where agreed amounts are deposited daily into the coping mechanism, but bona fide illegal, criminal fund to compensate members for sick days or to and/or socially harmful coping strategies (e.g. contribute to school fees. When surpluses arise, theft, prostitution etc) are also reported they are reinvested into members’ business to (Consultations, 2019) Kapodogo et al, 2019) . develop further (LEDRIZ, 2015) Households respond to shocks and stresses on The prevalence of informal activity has contributed employment and livelihoods in a variety of ways. to the contestation and politicization of urban Households typically reduce their expenditure to space (Njaya, 2015) (Chirau, 2012) where areas for offset reduced income. The most common coping business operations may be allocated on a partisan mechanisms to deal with economic shocks and basis. Similarly, urban dwellers and informal stresses are to reduce discretionary expenditure, workers have adopted different strategies (e.g. transport, housing costs, education, and food (not nocturnal vending) to avoid reported harassment necessarily in that order). For example, ZimVAC (Marapira, 2013; (Brown, 2006). The impact of report that financial constraints are the most this challenging livelihood and employment significant (53%) cause of school absenteeism situation is particularly acute on the youth who among children aged 7 – 17 years (ZimVAC, constitute more than 80% of total unemployment. 2019). Access to food is widely used as an A significant lack of opportunities for the youth to indicator for poverty and the strong correlation in gain more work experience, hinders their the quantitative data indicates that this principle employability (World Bank, 2019) holds for urban centres in Zimbabwe. Analysis of household income and expenditure reveals that The resilience capacity of urban employment and food exceeds 40% of household expenditure in livelihoods varies across society and both positive eight urban centres (Beitbridge, Bindura, Chipinge, and negative coping mechanisms are regularly Gwanda, Mutare, Mvurwi, Plumtree, and Rusape) utilised. The growth of urban agriculture to 5% of which indicates that the economic resilience national agricultural output is a remarkable capacity of these urban centres is extremely achievement. In contrast, school absenteeism due strained or almost non-existent. Reallocating to financial constraints and food costs consuming expenditure to cope with as ongoing coping (by 48 per cent of average household expenditure reallocating expenditure) has pushed them into highlight the vulnerability of urban livelihoods. poverty (as demonstrated by their percentage This report analyses remittances as a proxy for spending on food). Only households in Bulawayo household resilience and identifies four categories spend less than 30% of their expenditure on food of urban centres with differing economic resilience which indicates that households in all other urban capacity, from high income and low risk to low centres have limited economic resilience capacity income and high risk. left . Alarmingly the latest ZimVAC urban livelihoods report states that food as a percentage of household expenditure has increased to 48.6 per Coping mechanisms vary across society. On the cent (ZimVAC, 2019). positive side, to mitigate the impact of agrarian reform and economic instability, urban agriculture

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Figure 55: Household income, expenditure and remittances per urban centre (Source: extract from quantitative data) A more conventional means to assess economic has resilience capacity to cope with a shock or resilience at the household level is to analyse stress which reduces income (e.g. losing a job) or household savings rates. Savings provide a buffer increases expenditure (e.g. inflation or shortages). to shocks and stresses. However, these data is The analysis highlights four categories of urban unavailable. Although data is available on whether centres with differing economic resilience households have savings, the value of these capacity: savings are not quantified (ZimVAC, 2019). This report analyses remittances against income and • Low Income: High Risk (dark red): these expenditure at the household level as a proxy urban centres have low income and indicator for economic resilience capacity (see expenditure exceeds remittances which makes figures 7-8). The indicator has limitations as them extremely vulnerable with little or no income and expenditure are endogenous and could residual resilience capacity. They rely on oscillate significantly (e.g. recently reported CPI remittances to survive, have limited capacity to inflation data for July 2019 highlights a sudden respond to a stress and have no economic increase to 39 per cent relative to an average of 6 buffer to respond to a shock. This quadrant per cent for the previous 12 months) while includes Beitbridge, Gwanda and Plumtree remittances are considered exogenous as they are which also exhibit excessive expenditure on not subject to economic fluctuations within food (as described above) which indicates they Zimbabwe but subject to fluctuations in other have the lowest resilience capacity of all urban economies where the diaspora are present. The centres. Fortunately, these three urban centres latest ZimVAC urban livelihood assessment have relatively small populations (approx. indicates that salary and wages remain the most 80,000 in total). important source of income at the household level • Low Income: Low Risk (light green): these and highlights a significant increase in the urban centres have low income, but importance of vending and remittances as income remittances exceed expenditure. They remain sources in 2019 compared to the previous two at risk due to low income, but the safety net of years (ZimVAC, 2019). The hypothesis holds that remittances may provide them with the if remittances exceed expenditure, the household

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capacity to deal with further shocks and or stresses. Worryingly, this quadrant includes stresses. Bulawayo, Epworth and Chitungwiza which • High Income: Low Risk (dark green): these are three of the most highly populated urban urban centres have comparatively high income centres with a total population in excess of one and remittances exceed expenditure. They may million people. be able to reduce expenditure in response to ongoing stresses or a shock, and have the buffer of remittances • High Income: High Risk (light red): these urban centres exhibit high income, but remittances exceed expenditure, so they have

Figure 56 Household resilience (Source: Authors)

little or no capacity to withstand further shocks

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Urban employment and livelihoods have Various strategies have been suggested to improve considerable interdependencies and impacts on livelihoods and employment, including: promotion other systems. Fluctuating economic capacity at of community level savings and insurance schemes the household level: inhibits the households’ to provide a safety net for households; further ability to save and provide a financial safety net decriminalisation and integration of the informal for shocks (e.g. health emergencies) that will economy to boost economic performance and occur; constrains the ability to pay for social integration; subsidies / grants / amnesties essential/basic services (e.g. education); influences for outstanding debt among highly vulnerable the ability to maintain and improve physical living households. conditions (environment); and impacts future employment and livelihood opportunities (youth). Various strategies have been suggested to improve livelihoods and employment. Firstly, promotion of Livelihoods have considerable interdependencies community level savings and insurance schemes to and impacts on other systems. Firstly, provide a safety net for households. Robust deformalisation results in inconsistent levels of precedents exist in Zimbabwe and elsewhere as income which inhibits the households’ ability to models to be expanded or initiated. Secondly, the save and provide a financial safety net for shocks ongoing decriminalisation and integration of the (e.g. health emergencies) that will occur, and informal economy should be pursued to boost ability to pay for essential/basic services (e.g. economic performance and social integration. education). Secondly, de-industrialisation results in Thirdly, subsidies/grants/amnesties should be fewer high skilled jobs and pushes formal workers considered to help the payments of outstanding into informal sectors which puts a strain on the household debts associated with housing and existing informal economy and may contribute to social unrest as existing informal workers are Utilities, and encourage renewed investment in pushed further into informality or perhaps illegal these areas to bolster demand, encourage activity. Thirdly, asset deprecation, currency improvements in living conditions and reformalise fluctuations, lack of access to affordable finance user charges for utilities. Finally, target low and reduced incomes all contribute to the inability income – high risk households in Beitbridge, of households to invest in capital improvements in Gwanda and Plumtree; and conduct further their living conditions which impacts the broader analysis to identify low resilience households at a urban system and degrades the housing stock. Day more granular level in Bulawayo, Epworth and to day expenditure is also affected as most urban Chitungwiza. households are now regularly sourcing wood rather than relying on electricity for cooking> This may also have considerable impacts on the environmental and ecological system (ZimVAC, 2019).. Finally, the unstable economy creates limited opportunities for the (educated) youth to gain employability (World Bank, 2019).

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100 80 60

40 20 income 0 % of annual household % of household annual

Urban Council

Figure 57: Annual household expenditure, as proportion of income (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

6000 5000 4000 3000 US$ 2000 1000 0

Urban Council

Figure 59: Average annual household income (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

100 80 60 40 20 0 poverty line poverty % of population under under % of population

Urban Council

Figure 58: Poverty rate (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: Province-level data)

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Safety and Security country for women subjected to trafficking for sex and forced labour. (Interpol, 2019). Cybercrime is Resilience Goal: Integrated, collaborative and also a growing national crime phenomenon. Drug resourceful mechanisms to deter crime and create syndicates use Zimbabwe as a transit country, safe spaces. Fair and transparent systems to fight especially for cocaine and cannabis bound for the corruption and promote justice. rest of the world. Recent evidence indicates that Zimbabwe itself has a growing consumer market Policies and institutions are in place to uphold for these drugs too. (Interpol, 2019). Many cities human rights, but urban areas still witness high report a phenomenon of crime migrants - either crime rates which particularly affect women and youth. Crime deterrents such as an efficient law from one urban area to another or from enforcement system are challenged due to lack of neighbouring countries into border cities. resources while the judicial system is reported to operate sub optimally. Urban spaces currently do The 2013 Constitution provides a strong legal not effectively deter crime. framework for the promotion and attainment of gender equality and women's empowerment. The Ministry of Home Affairs provides oversight (ZUNDAF , 2016-2020). However as noted in the for safety and security in Zimbabwe. The 2014 Zimbabwe Country Analysis Report, the Zimbabwe Republic Police and the Ministry of exercise of women's rights is negatively impacted Justice each fall under the control of the Ministry by harmful cultural and religious practices, of Home Affairs. Each urban local authority has a subordination in the public and private spheres, Municipal Police Section whose mandate is to patriarchal attitudes, lack of skills and power maintain law and order in the urban area through imbalances. (ZUNDAF , 2016-2020). This working closely with the Zimbabwe Republic contributes to a high prevalence of violence against Police. Nevertheless, the municipal police do not women and girls, high rates of child marriages and have arresting powers, which is the sole mandate pregnancies, high maternal mortality rates and high of the Zimbabwe Republic Police (GoZ, 2015) vulnerability of adolescent girls and young women to HIV and STIs (ZUNDAF , 2016-2020). The Although the majority of crimes in Zimbabwe are police have set up Victim Friendly Units in every non-violent, perpetrators are generally armed with police station to handle rape cases. The police weapons, which can include firearms. The referred for prosecution the majority of reported downtown area of Harare and its high density rapes where victims used the services of rape residential suburbs are particularly high-crime centres, although few were actually prosecuted. areas. Assaults and robbery on individuals walking The government also continued a public awareness in city centres especially after dark is common campaign against domestic violence. (Zimbabwe with mobile phones and cash being common items Police, 2019). Young people are both of interest. A frequent crime committed is the disproportionately responsible for violent crime "smash and grab," in which thieves break the and are also more likely than other age groups to windows of cars stopped at intersections and take be victims of such crimes. High unemployment items from inside the car, which can harm the rates have led to an increase in crime, especially in driver and passengers (USDS, 2019) Zimbabwe’s urban areas. In Zimbabwean urban areas such as primary major-crime areas of concern include Harare, Bulawayo, Mutare and Chitungwiza, a wildlife crime, particularly stock theft, and significant number of youths are involved in petty trafficking in drugs, firearms and human beings. thievery as they lack meaningful forms of Zimbabwe is a source, transit, and destination

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livelihood. (RBZ, 2005) (Chirisa, et al., 2016). to have gone months without attending court for Incidents of white-collar crime including fraud bail hearings because the prison service lacked fuel have also been on the rise due to a lack of to provide transport. Others, who have been employment opportunities among the youths and granted bail but cannot afford the terms set by the the middle-aged population in Zimbabwe. (RBZ, court, are kept in custody (UNODC, 2011). 2005). Zimbabwean prisons have a high rate of recidivism that is contrary to the policies of the Zimbabwe Although in theory, formal processes exist for Prisons and Correctional Services which focus on tackling crime, there are several barriers to this. rehabilitating and reintegrating offenders into The municipal police neither have the arresting society. This shows the inadequacies of the powers nor the required resources to respond Zimbabwe Prisons and Correctional Services effectively to serious crime incidents. The system in equipping prison inmates with survival Zimbabwe Republic Police's (ZRP) law skills for post-prison life as the offenders continue enforcement capabilities have deteriorated in to reoffend. recent years. Due to Zimbabwe's economic struggles, the police lack sufficient funding to There has also not been enough thought and maintain and operate equipment and to train and resources put into prevention of crime. Spaces equip personnel. It is hard for the police to respond have not been designed incorporating CPTED to emergencies as they often have no transportation strategies. (Nyabvedzi & Chirisa, 2012). The to investigate, incidents must be reported in constant power cuts and lack of street lighting in person. Police tend to focus their resources on most parts of the city provide a comfortable political acts, especially demonstrations which tend environment for criminals to operate. In response to be better funded. This corrupts the system and to the problem of street lighting, some attempts victims are often used to extort goods or bribes have been made by local authorities to provide (Transparency International, 2015). solar street lights so that most parts of the city are well lit during night hours. (Herald, 2015) (Chirisa, The constitution provides for the right to a fair and et al., 2016). Although some cities- such as public trial, but political pressure and corruption is Hwange and Mutare reported installations of new reported to frequently compromise this right. By street lights during consultations (some of them law, defendants enjoy a presumption of innocence, solar powered), residents of most city regions still although courts do not always respect this right. feel unsafe because of a lack of street lighting and Magistrates or judges hold trials without juries. In general visibility. (Consultations, 2019). Fines and criminal cases a defendant may apply to have the punishments have not been effective at deterring government provide an attorney, but requests are criminal activity, (USDS, 2019) however rarely granted except in capital cases, in which the community led surveillance activities have helped government provides an attorney for all defendants instil some sense of safety (Consultations, 2019) unable to afford one. Individuals in civil cases may request free legal assistance from the Legal There are systems in place for ensuring safety and Resources Foundation or the ZLHR. The security of urban citizens, yet systems are seldom Zimbabwe Women Lawyers Association also delivered due to harsh and non-inclusive practices provided free legal assistance to women and youth. including entrenched bribery. Several key changes (USDS, 2019) Although the official prison need to occur to improve safety and security: population on remand or awaiting trial is less than improved social capital and unity through inter- organisation working, improved educational the average of the rest of the African region, programs which promote reporting crimes and prisoners in the Harare Remand Prison are reported deter potential offending, and ultimately increased

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funding to improve law enforcement and the justice with surveillance equipment rather than in city system. centres due to the high rate of crime, which could result in lower productivity (Consultations, 2019) The system shows an ability for integration with the security agencies setting up specialised units There are opportunities to enhance existing for each crime area including victim friendly units community policing initiatives, such as the for better supporting affected parties. The system Neighbourhood Watch Committee. There already shows some level of flexibility in its ability to deal exists an inter-agency approach to crime with large scale unrests and violence by backing up prevention which can involve a broader range of police personnel with military in times of civil stakeholders in each urban region to support unrests. This is seen as a quality of resourcefulness initiatives. City consultations suggest that these most recently in the fuel price hike protests of community-based surveillance activities need to be January 2019. However, the presence of the bettered in their own cities which could improve military is also criticised as the use of excessive perception of safety. (Consultations, 2019) force and incites even more violence. The system lacks inclusivity and supports only those who can There are cultural barriers to reporting crime which afford the resources required for security need to be addressed. Prevention involves the in- infrastructure, investigations and legal processes. depth capacity building and sensitization Lack of tools and training manifests as inability of workshops for government (Legislature, Executive the system to be reflective or robust and impedes and Judiciary) and civil society players (NGOs, the capacity of the system to support city Religious Groups, Media and Community Based resilience. Organizations) (Chirisa, et al., 2016). Social peace- making efforts are required to build trust, and the This system is connected strongly to the local military is a core component of this as violence has economy and livelihood generation. An increased been unleashed intermittently against civilians over risk of political violence is often associated with an the past four decades. (Chitiyo, 2009) National expanding population of higher educated youth Consultations proposed suggestions for quick wins who are facing limited opportunities to obtain elite including engaging with security agencies for their political and economic positions. Social assistance along with the establishment of sub- disintegration or fragmentation is also directly police stations. In the long term there is a definite linked to high levels of unemployment and crime need to lobby for arresting powers to among urban youth. Lack of education and municipalities and advocacy for enforcing laws awareness also leads to higher criminal activity e.g. on regularising public transport systems. and keeps recidivism high (Chirisa, et al., 2016). Several cities report community-led activities that Infrastructure failure and the energy crisis further have helped improve safety. Awareness activities complicates this system and creates an in schools targeting primary and secondary school environment where criminal activity can thrive due teachers and pupils would support knowledge to lack of surveillance while the lack of finances building. (Chirisa, et al., 2016). Increased funding affects the availability of equipment and manpower both by the central government and local to support safety in the system. The lack of safety governments is required to improve resources and goes on to hamper economic development as it equipment inventory along with better street reduces working hours and efficiency of work and planning which is urgently required to create urban does not allow the vulnerable population to fully spaces that allow natural surveillance. (GoZ, 2015) participate in society (World Bank, 2018). People (Consultations, 2019) working in the city prefer living in walled homes

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Social Welfare and Protection Whilst Zimbabwe’s social protection system once ranked impressively in coverage and other Resilience Goal: The state can support its citizens measures, recent crises and structural challenges in preventing, managing, and overcoming have eroded its quality, reach, ability to respond to situations that adversely affect their well-being, the needs of its population, and ability to be ultimately enabling a sustainable shift out of resilient to shocks and stressors. (Madembi, 1998) poverty. Before independence, social protection was Social protection is enshrined in Zimbabwe’s delivered in Zimbabwe along racial lines, urban constitution, and funded nationally. However, based and as a result, indigenous populations we recent crises have eroded Government’s ability to largely left out. (Kaseke, E., 1999) New more provide it consistently and the system is now inclusive policies to embed social protection into heavily reliant on international aid organisations. national programmes were conceived. The current programme of the GoZ for Sustainable Socio- Zimbabwe’s Constitution recognizes and upholds Economic Transformation, (ZimAsset), prioritizes the need to provide social protection to its citizens poverty eradication through higher economic as evidenced in Section 30, which states that … growth. “the state must take all practical measures, within the limits of the resources available to it, to provide Despite a sustained economic crisis and recurrent social security and social care to those who are in emergencies, Zimbabwe has retained many of the need” (GoZ, 2013). The Department of Social same social safety net interventions for over 20 Welfare under the MPSLSW has the primary years, but most programs have not been scaled up responsibility for implementing safety nets in to respond to recent crises. (World Bank 2016) conjunction with any other funding partners. In Weak state capacity and under-estimation of the urban areas government supported social safety budget have affected implementation. Authorities nets are delivered through the Department of have not rigorously evaluated most social Social Welfare offices or distributions planned in protection programs, partly due to insufficient conjunction with supporting INGOs. funding, weak staff skills, and poorly integrated information systems. Weak targeting mechanisms Social protection in Zimbabwe is delivered in and insufficient information negatively impact on many forms. Social safety nets comprise an array the efficacy of most programs, limiting efforts to of non-contributory programs, including cash better serve the poor. transfers, public works programs, and in-kind food distribution and fee waivers for basic services, Today, Zimbabwe’s social protection system such as health and education. Social insurance supports an array of fragmented, poorly targeted, includes the national social insurance scheme, the and donor dependent programs, achieving different government public service insurance scheme, and degrees of performance. To provide social the Local Authority Pension Scheme. Though in protection to people in Zimbabwe, World Bank early stages, labour market programs include noted that five per cent of GDP is spent on social skills-development programs; job-search and protection interventions targeting the poor and matching programs; and improvements in labour vulnerable (World Bank, 2017). State funding has policies. Social care services are typically traditionally gone into initiatives like the Drought programs targeting the most vulnerable and Relief, Child Supplementary Feeding, Social destitute. (Kaseke, E., 1999) Development Fund and the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM). Funding is seen as an

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issue, where the funds run out during the first 3-6 the above is economic crisis or poverty, months of each year. Over the years governments, exacerbated by a lack of diverse livelihood UN, local and international development generation and employment opportunities. Given organizations as well as community-based Zimbabwe’s weak social safety net the ability to organizations, have stepped in. Organisations such support households in times of economic as UNICEF (BEAM) and WFP (food handouts and instability places the vulnerable and disadvantaged cash transfers), among others, whose support cover at significant risk, especially should large scale primarily rural areas and bit of urban areas. Social disaster occur. Above challenges affect all urban protection includes four main pillars: social safety and rural dwellers though differently. While social nets, social insurance, labour market programs, and protection is delivered as a priority service, current social care services. Currently (2019) WFP is efforts lack inclusivity and inconsistent application. piloting cash transfers for urban areas using There are reported instances where government Epworth area for food handouts valued as supported social safety programs especially food USD$13. Community organisations such as ISALs handouts programs have been accused as being (Internal lending and savings schemes) and burial partisan by members of the opposition. societies are some of the most common social protection structures evident in some urban areas In terms of integration, social assistance programs like Bulawayo and these helps to maintain an were initially designed to propel the recipients out income for members when they meet an of poverty and make them self-sufficient and are unforeseen social distress like illness, death, or therefore limited in terms of relation to other injury. systems, for example the educational system. More should be done to ensure social assistance Urban areas theoretically have better access to programs work in close collaboration with other social welfare, as the Department of Social systems, in particular the economy and education, Welfare offices are largely urban based. Despite in providing solutions which meet the social this, not many urban poor are aware of relevant protection needs of the populace. schemes and entitlements. The current coverage of social welfare is not The Social welfare system serves a critical function inclusive of the most in need. A substantial 67 % amidst a variety of urban stressors but is ultimately of social protection expenditure is devoted to civil unable to be inclusive of a majority of those in service pensions covering just 1.3 % of the need, particularly the informal sector, youth, girls population (World Bank 2017). The lack of and children. diversity within expenditure has a significant impact on non-civil service workers and children. Shocks and stressors in urban areas including Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s basic social safety net water scarcity, utilities infrastructure failure, programs have low and unpredictable coverage conflict and social unrest, poor healthcare and with no comprehensive public aid system and disease, political instability, pollution and land financial assistance provided to unemployed degradation, crime, population fluctuation and persons. There has been almost no conscious effort congestion, all have a direct impact on; safe for those operating in the informal sector to be accommodation, adequate water and sanitation, provided with tailored social protection measures. food security, health, income security, health, An exception is the Harmonized Social Cash education and social connectedness and ultimately Transfer System (HSCT), which imposes strict strain the social welfare system. One of the most eligibility requirements and clear mechanisms for prevalent shocks and stressors that underpins all of

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identifying beneficiaries, such as household and that supports those most in need cannot be proxy means testing. developed and sustained.

There is also a lack of incentive for young people Rural-Urban migration remains a contributory to include themselves in the social protection factor for some the challenges alluded to above as system despite the high unemployment rates. many people have left rural areas to seek There is a lack of planning in terms of the employment in towns only to find no jobs in the engagement process which results in a continued process falling vulnerable to the social ills. exclusion of young people from the system and its development. The inability of the social welfare system to perform to required level has had an adverse Social welfare in Zimbabwe has been hampered by impact as individuals turn to negative coping a weak economy, lack of information and data strategies. For examples, a UNFPA study, 34.8% which would ensure fair coverage and the of adolescent girls reported engagement in resulting weak performance has resulted a transactional sex for monetary gain. In Zimbabwe, unsustainable negative coping strategies. the failures of the social safety nets are also evident in high numbers of street children, destitute Social protection services are central to resilience adults and disabled persons with limited support. building in Urban Areas of Zimbabwe and are a The street children menace is very high in major key aspect of creating an urban city environment cities, with Harare bearing the major brunt. In where rich or poor can thrive and be able to access urban areas of Zimbabwe negative coping all basic necessities of life in a dignified manner. mechanism associated with lack of access to social protection include commercial sex, sexual Social Protection is a significant need in exploitation of children, petty thefts and substance Zimbabwe, that is directly impacted upon by a range of other systems, the most pertinent being abuse by the young people. that of livelihood generation and employment. An Recommendations estimated 20 % of youths in the 18 to 24 age group are never able to secure employment in Zimbabwe While several initiatives like social insurance, (ILO, 2016) (See chapter on livelihoods for more social assistance and self-help programmes are information). The challenges to local economy already addressing gaps in social protection there facing Zimbabwe underscore the need for the GoZ is a need for integrated and holistic programming to prioritize high-impact social protection that appreciates the changing situation and adapts interventions, especially as funding is currently appropriately to meet needs of the urban poor. spread thinly across too many programs; while Public assistance programmes should play a sharply rising inflation has caused continuously rehabilitative role and reduce the dependency lost value. syndrome among recipients, by linking to job creation schemes. Under the job creation scheme Weak information and data systems mean that the government could give financial assistance to information regarding social protection is distorted destitute persons wishing to launch income- and unreliable. Citizens are not included in generating projects. The assistance could include a meaningful participation and engagement, with the grant and a loan. A revolving fund can thus be poor excluded and young people refraining from established for the benefit of all destitute persons. engaging. Without this knowledge and Developmental public assistance has been used representation, a targeted social protection system with great success in the Philippines to the extent

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that destitute persons are rehabilitated to become align the social protection system to the demands successful entrepreneurs (Kaseke, E., 1999) of a growing youth population. Youth should have access to skills training via tertiary institutions and The learnings derived WFP’s large scale current once they have skills they will need access to start- cash transfer programme should be used further up capital to start their own business or least find improve urban cash assistance program that would employment in what is considered as decent work then include cash for work. This is critical given from available opportunities. Decent work are that the livelihood urban assessment identified that those jobs that help maintain the dignity and self- 2.2 million urbanites are food insecure across the worth of individuals and where there is no country. exploitation.

Non-formal social security arrangements, such as In the near-term, authorities should work to ensure burial societies and rotating and saving schemes in stronger engagement with development partners. Zimbabwe, have been increasingly popular as they This engagement should focus on collaboration to address the felt needs of their members and can strengthen the core social safety net and establish cater for people existing outside formal the longer-term positioning of social protection employment-and the formal social security sector. given Zimbabwe’s tight fiscal space. Efforts They also have potential for strengthening if should be invested to improve administrative provided with enhanced viability and coverage. If capacities and processes in social protection. The further supported, this would reduce the demand absence of effective mechanisms for targeting, on public assistance. payments and monitoring has led to It is also recommended that the Government implementation delays, duplication, and overlaps strengthen child protection by supporting the across programs. Though authorities have consolidated certain cash grants, multiple National Case Management System (NCMS). A ministries continue to support uncoordinated, national case management system for child protection aims to establish dynamic programming sometimes duplicative social safety nets and labour in child protection to improve the social protection market programs. Many programs have large and system’s efficiency and outcomes. Authorities costly administrative structures and separate targeting and tracking systems but little coverage. should work to consolidate disparate safety net By contrast, the HSCT within the Ministry of interventions around a core set of programs, based on clear guiding principles, such as instilling Public Service Labour and Social Welfare greater dynamism and flexibility to the system. In (MPSLSW) benefits from a robust, coordinated management information system, but there is a parallel, the GoZ should work to improve the need to develop an integrated social registry for all equity of social protection, by identifying and building on strategies that are pro-poor and meet MPSLSW programs. both chronic and transitory needs. Officials could improve mechanisms for targeting the poor. To do so, it will be important to establish a clearer evidence base approach to program impacts and effectiveness assessments.

Youth form the largest group of unemployed people, which necessitates that authorities must

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300 250 200 150 100

% of remittances 50 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 60 Average household expenditure as percentage of average remittances received (Source: Zimstat, 2017. Note: Province- level data)

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Social capital

Resilience Goal: To establish networks capable of mari’, an informal scheme created to provide supporting relationships among people who live financial resources and social security in the and work in a particular society, enabling that absence of micro-credit, or resource-sharing society to function effectively and harmoniously. schemes based on donations which help members who cannot afford their treatment (LEDRIZ, While urban areas in Zimbabwe benefit from the 2015). advantages of long standing social networks. the, current political and economic conditions have led Nevertheless, barriers to social networks and the to an erosion of social capital. creation of social capital have persisted over time and hindered communities from achieving greater Social networks play a key role in Zimbabwe, by levels of resilience (Njaya, 2015; LEDRIZ, 2015; supporting livelihood generation and facilitating Chirau, 2012). Gated communities have emerged business at all levels, especially in the informal in many affluent suburban areas, while socially and sector. Urban dwellers in Zimbabwe benefit from economically marginalized people are seen to 24 a relatively strong social capital which inhabit poorly serviced peri-urban areas and city contributes to some degree to the resilience of centres. These areas are sites for ‘social vices’ households and informal workers. Studies (Consultations, 2019) such as prostitution and drug demonstrate how, by tapping into existing dealing. Due to economic and cultural barriers, networks, new entrants have been able to meet Zimbabwe’s predominantly conservative and suppliers, and share knowledge. Strong social patriarchal society views prostitution with networks and relationships play a role in nurturing abhorrence (Nyambi, 2010), yet a very high relationships with clients, suppliers and number of women resort to transactional sex (see competitors. They have enabled Urban chapter on gender for more information) which Zimbabweans, especially those involved in the alienates them from mainstream society. informal economy, to improve efficiency, and rapidly identify and maintain opportunities for Further academic field research and consultations business in highly unstable and challenging in Zimbabwe also reveal the significant challenges conditions. Solidarity and social networks have posed to social capital by political polarisation. also led to the development of organizations, City Consultations revealed the risks associated sometimes informal, that enable vulnerable with opposition to certain political parties. Urban communities to voice their needs and concerns to dwellers, including informal workers, report the the national and municipal governments, or to difficulties they encountered in obtaining support share resources. Examples include the ‘kufusha from authorities, such as an allocated space, in the

24 Social capital is defined by the OECD as the shaping of urban life and economic development, human networks which, combined with shared all the more so when urban communities are faced norms, values and understandings, enable and with shocks or stressors. foster collaboration between people and groups of people. It is therefore a critical system in the

163 event of diverging political opinions. Further national unity and overshadowing presence of reports identify the greater odds of being faced politics in social activities contribute to limiting with police harassment or corruption for those who the resilience of social capital as an urban system do not clearly support ‘mainstream’ views (ICED, (LEDRIZ, 2015) (Mandisvika, 2015). 2017; Alexander & McGregor, 2013; Chirau, 2012). Although social capital enables urban residents greater scope for positive resourcefulness and Another critical challenge identified is the lack of flexibility for example through urban agricultural representation for many social groups, as well as collectives, it also brings groups together in the internal divides within these groups. (Mandisvika, pursuit of negative coping strategies, for example 2015; LEDRIZ, 2015). Although evidence criminal gangs, prostitution rings and illegal suggests progress since 2014, residents claim that mining rackets. participatory processes are followed solely to comply with regulations and the law The resilience capacity of the social capital system (Consultations, 2019) (LEDRIZ, 2015) in urban Zimbabwe is mainly dependent onto the (Mandisvika, 2015). In addition, urban dwellers performance of three other urban systems: the report a lack of resources, in particular time, to local economy, livelihood generation and engage further in social capital building activities employment, and education. such as participation in trade organisations or A strong local economy improves livelihood collective voice-making initiatives (LEDRIZ, generation and employment opportunities, 2015). allowing urban communities to allocate more time Finally, a deeper challenge to developing greater and financial resources to nurture a resilient social resilience through social capital stems from the capital. Furthermore, both formal and informal country’s colonial history and historical migration economic activities are seen to generally enable flows, which have resulted in a perceived lack of greater interaction within communities and tend to national unity sometimes felt at the city level foster the strengthening of social bonds and (Mlambo, 2013; Mpofu, 2013) networks. The other critical element affecting the potential performance of social capital in A robust system of social capital has enabled Zimbabwe is education. Informing individuals urban citizens in Zimbabwe to survive difficult about the country’s history and multicultural nature periods yet has also supported negative copings through school and adult education programmes strategies. has played a significant role in gradually reducing the negative legacies of colonialism, while The increasing pressure imposed on Zimbabwe’s promoting the tolerance for, and acceptance of, urban society due to the unstable economy has diverging political opinions. Education has played considerably reduced the resources available to an essential role in enhancing the social capital of urban communities to build and maintain a urban communities and building a greater sense of resilient social capital (Consultations, 2019) national unity. The performance of social capital (LEDRIZ, 2015) (Mandisvika, 2015) (Chirau, is also affected to some extent by the social 2012). Although consultations (Consultations, welfare and protection system (see chapter on 2019) reveal that in some urban areas, various social welfare and protection for more information) groups including informal workers are managing to which can provide more autonomy and more time be effectively be heard by local governments, in for households to participate in social capital the main the persisting cultural divide, lack of clear building activities. Finally, social capital can be

164 enhanced through a better performing municipal finance system, as municipal governments have the potential to providing additional resources and opportunities to support social capital building activities such as local cultural and festive activities.

Social capital systems in cities in Zimbabwe, can be strengthened if supported indirectly through economic and political systems of participation; and also, if local authorities play an active role in recognizing and leveraging formal and informal networks.

To strengthen the social capital of urban communities in Zimbabwe, several strategies exist that would reduce vulnerabilities and enhance the quality of livelihoods. Central to this approach is an encouragement of local governments to recognise and respect tacit and grassroot organisations and social networks that have developed over time in urban areas. Actively engaging with those organisations and social networks to include them in the urban decision- making process would provide essential help in recognising the priority areas for intervention. Investments in education programmes that promote further social interaction and cultural understanding for both the youth and adults would help in building greater social capital and a stronger sense of national cohesion. Furthermore, cultural and artistic activities should also be organized and promoted to provide platforms for enhancing social cohesiveness at both the national and local levels. Finally, digital technologies could be utilized to achieve stronger social capital by promoting communication across cultures and sections of society.

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Dimension 3: Infrastructure, Planning and Ecosystems

This dimension relates to place – the quality of Subsystems included in this section are: infrastructure and ecosystems that protect, provide and connect us. The analysis considers 1. Environment & eco-system services how infrastructure and ecosystems protect 2. Information & Communication cities from natural hazards. Also important 3. Linear / Trunk Infrastructure within this dimension is the continuity of 4. Protective Infrastructure critical services, under shock or stress 5. Urban Form (including informal situations. This includes, water supply, power settlements) distribution, and solid waste management and transportation systems that enable the flow of goods, services, people and information.

This report analyses issues related to the physical assets from the perspective of building planning (policy) design, implementation and maintenance / operations.

The challenges and strengths are analysed to include:

• Planning: Strategic city-wide plans and policies that consider current and future needs. • Design: Understanding if the physical assets are currently fit for purpose. • Implementation: How physical assets are delivered, procured and funded. • Maintenance and operations: How physical assets are operated and monitored as well as institutional capacity needs.

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Dimension 3: Infrastructure, eco- vulnerabilities, protect people, and support systems & the urban form. economic development. Technical and technological advances, particularly within Summary ICT systems, are a critical component for improving future functionality and building Zimbabwe’s ageing trunk and service long term resilience. infrastructure currently does not support well-functioning urban systems and Infrastructure systems are highly affected economic development. It requires urgent by both macro and micro economics and rehabilitation and retrofitting. the status of municipal finances. The Nevertheless, the strong capacity of current weakness of the infrastructure Information and Communication system is directly correlated to the inability Technology (ICT) infrastructure has of economic sectors to deliver. supported the development of digital Infrastructural, environmental and urban services. Although urban form in cities design systems are also heavily influenced retains some qualities from their original by the decisions of leadership and planning intent, it is increasingly unfit for municipal finances. Trunk infrastructure purpose. This is encouraging unplanned and and environmental systems are central to informal subdivision and reconfiguration of the resilience of all dimensions. Over the land. mid to long-term, failing to invest in these Poor maintenance of trunk infrastructure sectors will seriously hamper the ability of and subsequent environmental degradation urban systems to perform and to withstand has decreased the systems resilience to natural hazards. function in periods of shocks and stresses, There are still opportunities to effectively which can have large scale consequences. utilise the skills of a competent personnel For example, the failure of the transport and and available graduate workforce across energy systems during Cyclone Idai (2019) industry, within the engineering, affected services stretching from Mutare to architectural, planning and environmental Greater Harare. Protective infrastructure to sectors – as well as administrators within safeguard urban citizens from large scale public agencies such as the EMA. disruptions like floods is insufficiently Expansion of the digital sector could be a developed. catalyst in enabling development and Zimbabwe’s industries and academia are supporting resilience in urban areas. staffed by skilful and experienced Infrastructure interventions are highly personnel. However, this is not yet conditioned by capital investment, which is translating into good urban design practices dependent on an improved macro-economic of compactness, mixed use planning and situation, private borrowing and the sustainable mobility, which could addresses attraction of FDI. Rehabilitating and Zimbabwe’s contemporary challenges. A retrofitting the infrastructural system to lack of robustness and redundancy in the high standards will require an estimated infrastructure network compromises the capital investment of $34 billion by 2030. ability of these subsystems to reduce

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Ecosystem services and environment Firstly, land-use change for expansion, and/or encroachment on ecological sensitive areas. Resilience Goal: The environment and Change of agricultural land, for expanding ecosystems are protected and restored based on settlements at the fringes of established urban strong regulatory frameworks and made use of areas are well documented. These may be sustainably by a sensitised and caring regulated by development plans (Figure 1 and population. Figure 2; , but result in a greater footprint of urban areas through the conversion of Environmental regulations, mandated agencies agricultural land for settlement. and capacities exist in urban areas but in the current context eco-system services and environment are under considerable threat from the combined effect of urban sprawl and overexploitation and pollution of eco-system services. These trends are particularly alarming in large cities, such as Harare and surrounding towns; but can be also observed in mining, bordering and tourist towns. As mentioned in Chapter 2 and referred in Figure 61 Expansion area on woodland in Kariba in 2019 Image: © CNES - Google Maps Chapter 4. Urban and Land-Use Planning of the URSA, there are several policy and regulatory instruments that apply to urban areas to prevent the overexploitation and depletion of eco-system services (Chirara, 2014). This includes the RTCP, which regulates infrastructure and other development with the object of conserving and improving the physical environments to promote health, safety, order, amenity, convenience, and general welfare (Matamanda, A, Chirisa I et al., Figure 62 Figure 6 Bird’s eye view of Kariba expansion 2018), and thus protect urban environment. It Image: © CNES - Google Maps also includes the need to obtain environmental impact assessments (EIAs) as a condition for building permits. However, at present, the combined housing demand in peripheric areas; the failure of sanitation systems; and urban poverty are causing urban environmental degradation and depletion of eco-system regulatory, provisioning and supporting services. There are three main well documented (Consultations, 2019; GoZ and UNDP, 2018; GoZ and UNDP, 2017; GoZ, 2014a; Beilfuss, 2012; Matamanda, et al., 2018) environmental Figure 63 Gokwe aerial photography. Note agricultural and eco-system degradation trends in urban land still on the outskirt of town. Date: 28 April 2013 areas, relevant to resilience: Image © Maxar Technologies – Google Earth Pro

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in May 2008 and July 2019 in Chitungwiza show the expansion of built-up areas towards the wetland area; this process accelerates in the year 2011.

Figure 64 Gokwe. Note agricultural land occupied by settlements and land subdivided (centre) and unplanned occupation of previous agricultural land (on top-right). Date 4 July 2019 Image © CNES / Airbus – Google Earth Pro Conversely, the economic situation also induces higher porosity between land-uses, with the prevalence of urban agriculture in undesignated Figure 65 Wetland map of Harare. Source: Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe (2012). areas (such as river banks and wetlands) for subsistence or income generation. (GoZ, 2015). Fragmentation in the settlements adjacent to main urban area and urban-sprawl have also resulted in clearance of forests, woodlands and plantations; illegal or informal occupation of ecological sensitive areas, such as wetlands or river beds are also well documented, with the encroachment by urban development and agriculture on wetlands, some of which with Ramsar status25. The encroachment of housing in Harare’ wetlands (mapped in Figure 5) has reduced biodiversity and it is estimated that the Figure 66 Ground figure illustrating planned, unplanned City of Harare is losing close to 20% of the and informal areas in Harare (South-West). Source: city’s water storage capacity owing to Authors, 2019 with MapBox interference with wetlands26. The ground-figure and satellite image of Hopley (South-West Harare) show the location of informal areas across ecological areas. Satellite images taken

25 Seven (7) wetlands in the country have Ramsar sustainable use of wetlands. The Convention was status out of which four (4) lay within or in the signed in 1971. vicinity of Harare, including Lake Chivero. The 26 Matamanda, A, Chirisa I et al. (2018) ‘Harare’s Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Deteriorating Wetlands: Why Sound Policies and Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat is an Legislations Are Not Enough’, Case Studies in the international treaty for the conservation and Environment, 2018, pps.1–11. University of California Press

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Harare, is starting to be perceived as a key issue in some urban areas as Redcliff, Beitbridge or Bindura (Local consultations, 2019). Key causes include increased traffic volume related to lack of public transport, with 1.2 million estimated high-emission vehicles: transport in the country accounts for 22% of Green House Gas Emissions (Figure 9); as well as uncontrolled burning of waste at industrial and Figure 67 Image showing informal settlements in Harare household levels. (GoZ, 2015; Consultations, (South-West), built across ecologically sensitive areas. Source: MapBox 2019).

Figure 68 Satellite image taken in May 2008, Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery Maxar Tech., 2008) Figure 70 GHG Emissions from Energy Use, 2015, Calculated according to IPCC source categories (Energy), based on national statistics and IEA data. Source: Draft of Zimbabwe’s Low Emission Development Strategy, GoZ, 2019 - unpublished Bindura and Gwanda identify water pollution as one of the key consequences of illegal mining whilst cities as Harare or Masvingo linked the pollution of their water bodies to the discharge of raw sewage (Local consultations 2019). Even Figure 69 Satellite image taken in July 2019, Chitungwiza (Source: Imagery (C) CNES / Airbus, Maxar Tch, Map though environmental stewardship is engrained Data (c) 2019) in the EM Act (2002) and in the Constitution Secondly, land degradation and pollution of (2013) consultations in Redcliff, Hwange, sources around and within the administrative Harare and Gwanda (2019) lamented poor boundaries of the urban areas, associated with individual and household behaviour as a cause industrial activities such as industrial of pollution. It is estimated that more than a exploitation of mines, illegal panning of million people are illegally panning for gold minerals with associated pollution of rivers, along Zimbabwe’s rivers, resulting in clearance logging, sand extraction; poor wastewater of trees and digging in river beds, which cause treatment. In greater Harare water quality is soil erosion, landslides and siltation of water being severely compromised as a result of bodies and destroy aquatic biodiversity. wastewater from sewage flowing back into Increased use of mercury, iron and cyanide to rivers, dams and Lake Chivero without process ore has pollute water courses, affecting treatment, as documented in the Water and communities’ sources of livelihoods. Open-cast Sanitation sections of this chapter. Air mining has resulted in scarring of the pollution, previously lamented in Greater

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landscapes and changes to habitats. (Ministry of 2019 in urban areas, from 26% to 53%, with a Environment, Water and Climate, 2015) proportion of urban households using electricity for cooking decreasing from 60% (2018) to 36.9% (ZimVAC, 2019, Table 1); water- logging and unregulated sanitation in urban stands, resulting in the pollution of shallow phreatic sources in dense urban areas; overexploitation and waste of water sources from aging infrastructure.

Observed trends are symptomatic of underlying causes nested within the overall macro- Figure 71 Satellite image of industrial areas in KweKwe, economic context and urbanisation processes. contiguos to residential areas: © CNES - Google Maps Ecosystem and environmental degradation compound the vulnerability of urban areas in Zimbabwe. This system is affected by shortcomings in service delivery; and by challenges in development control. Environmental and eco-system degradation will, in turn, result in heightened risks for people and assets

Figure 72 Illustration of industrial areas (orange contour); This system is highly central: it is affected by brownfields (purple contour); residential areas (yellow shortcomings in service delivery, i.e. water, contour) and contiguos residential areas (yellow contour) sanitation, solid waste management; in KweKwe: © CNES - Google Maps 100 60.0 52.7 36.9 50 26.0 9.0 7.9 1.0 0.6 2.0 0.4 Proportion of

0 Households (%) Electricity (ZESA) Liquified petroleum Biogas Kerosene/paraffin Wood gas (LPG) 2018 2019

Graph 1 Types of Energy Used for Cooking (2018 and 2019) Source: ZimVAC, 2019 Thirdly, the over-exploitation of eco-system governance, i.e. planning and regulation; and, services for residential and industrial uses, indirectly by local economy and livelihood. In mostly driven by higher demand for services turn, it negatively affect people health and unsatisfied by formal supply, and unregulated compound risks of disasters induced by natural or not provided sustainably. This includes hazards (such as floods and landslides) and increasing demand for urban energy sources, epidemics (such as cholera). supplemented through firewood in peri-urban areas affected by power outages, which has More specifically, the system is currently driven deforestation. Despite the national influenced by: efforts to curb this trend (Local consultations in Beitbridge, Gwanda and Harare, 2019), • Urban poverty, rooted in the overall ZimVAC (2019) demonstrates that at national economic context is regarded as the overall level there was an almost 100% increase in the underlying cause forcing urban and peri- use of firewood for cooking between 2018 and urban dwellers to seek unsustainable

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sources sources of energy, livelihood and This has effects on provisioning, regulatory provisioning services (e.g. water) from and supporting services that may affect unsustainable sources and practices. urban areas, and its dwellers, in particular owever, the urban poor is also the most the poor. affected by degradation of eco-system services, as it more directly depends on the Its degradation is likely to affect performance environmental capital and these services. of several sub-systems, including: For instance, contamination of water • Water resources and health dynamics and sources will affect first and foremost the system performance, in particular as poor, for instance with epidemics of concerns risks of disasters (induced by cholera; natural hazards; and epidemics), people’ • Inadequate or insufficient SWM and wellbeing and human-health dynamics; Sanitation service-delivery • Local economy, especially in urban areas • Urban growth, driven by demographic and that rely on the tourism industry for economic factors, increasing the demand livelihood. and consuming non-replenishable or slowly-replenishable resources at a fast and The environmental policies and interest by uncontrolled rate and the inability to national and local authorities represent a good manage sustainably the metabolism of opportunity to strengthen environmental ecosystem services, including for the lack planning in urban areas, protect, restore and of capacity to treat, regenerate, upvalue enhance eco-system services. This is extremely solid and liquid waste to reinject it safely in urgent and requires sustained effort and the metabolic process of the urban system leadership. (Karel, 2017); Data, literature, national and local consultations • The relaxation of certain standards, (e.g. Harare, Beitbridge, Victoria Falls, Bindura challenges with development control, and or Gwanda) concur on the need to address changes in policies, such as the housing urban environmental degradation trends as a policy reported in national and local matter of priority. This, however, requires an consultations (2019). This includes, for integrated approach across multiple systems: instance, the enhanced flexibility regarding the urban resilience approach provides the spatial planning and environmental codes opportunity to work across sectors in a critical permitted by policies and by-laws (GoZ, mass of sub-systems, as explained in the section 2015a); the informality and malpractices in on Interdependency of this report (Chapter 4). dealing with land subdivision and The following could be leveraged to this end attribution (ICED, 2017); and objective challenges in enforcing land-use plans with • High interest of LAs to develop more limited capacities. Local consultations also sustainable and integrated urban plans that insisted on the importance of planning to connect green and blue features within the develop green public spaces urban fabric and/or strengthen ecological • Changes in climate, which compound corridors to allow biodiversity transfer; human-induced degradation trends • Existing initiatives and interest on influencing eco-system viability for urban renewable energy in urban areas, linked to settings. For instance, the observed income-generation opportunities and reduction in yields of reservoirs affected by livelihood, especially for youth, and faster evaporation and lesser replenishment possibly linked to community-based capacity from rains (Beilfuss, 2012; GoZ awareness raising (Zibanai, 2018) in peri- and UNDP, 2018; GoZ and UNDP, 2017).

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urban areas to reduce deforestation; as well in urban areas and streamlining of as and introduction of air quality environmental regulation processes Refer to monitoring at mining/industrial sites. Evaluating Urban Resilience in Zimbabwe. (UNDP, 2017); Elevation of environmental issues in the • Existing technical capacities in the municipal governance and integration of Environmental Management Agency these aspects with DRM. (EMA), ZTA, Zimbabwe Investment • Development and adoption of integrated Authority (ZIA), Ministry of Environment resilience plans in each LA, including and Climate Change, MoTHI, and environmental planning Zimparks; • Implementation or priorities identified by • Existing strategies, such as Zimbabwe’s the National Transport Plan, including National Climate Change Response enforcement of emission standards for Strategy of 2015, i.e. goal: ‘develop climate vehicles; Introduction of an integrated proofed and environmentally sustainable transport system to reduce the carbon transport systems that are less carbon footprint caused by the road transport intense’. Zimbabwe National Transport sector; Development of an efficient public Master Plan of 2018, Environmental and mass transport system by introducing Sustainability pillar; The LEDS larger buses and trains on urban commuter development was led by the Climate routes to reduce the use of private cars; Change Management Department (CCMD) Incorporating climate change in road in the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, designs and transport related infrastructure; Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement • Strengthening of human and technical (MLAWCRR), in collaboration with the resources and skills, supported by adequate United Nations Development Programme financial investment; (UNDP), according to a highly • Development of public-private partnerships participatory approach; and LAs-civil society and community • Existing processes, such as the National partnerships for sustainable management of Adaptation Plan, with relevance for environmental resources in urban areas; environment and eco-system service • Development or reinforcement of existing preservation and enhancement in the critical information and monitoring systems context of climate change; on urban eco-system services, development • Existing environmental planning capacities of cost-benefit analysis to preserve eco- in EMA, in the Academia, and in the design system services; integrate natural resource industry in Zimbabwe. accounting in all business, support environmentally friendly production The following should be prioritised: systems and provide incentives for cleaner production and build scientific knowledge, • Adoption of integrated sustainable and resilient land-use planning and urban- including a credible database for design approaches that integrate green and monitoring biodiversity. (Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate, 2015) blue features in the existing fabric, and design for green infrastructure, reforestation Over the long-term, ambitious regeneration and and afforestation in urban areas (Local reconfiguration of city-development could consultations, 2019); include the redevelopment of buildings and • Strengthening of development control urban fabric, which is proned in the Regional, capacities as a critical aspect of Town and Country Planning Act (Sec 17); and environmental protection and enhancement

173 the adoption of sustainable and resilient human settlement development and design policy.

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Information and Communications quality of internet connections, albeit relying on Technology third parties for access, which adds to the cost of delivering internet access to Zimbabweans. (Africa Development Bank, 2019). The Resilience Goal: The public and civil society Government of Zimbabwe has a substantial are proactively informed of hazards that may stake in the ICT sector, owning the fixed line affect them and are enabled to access operator (TelOne) and the 2nd largest mobile information held by public bodies, empowered operator (NetOne) with a majority stake in the to hold their leaders accountable, develop a 3rd largest mobile operator (Telecel). fuller understanding of the world, and ensure their human rights. Use of ICT in Zimbabwe has greatly increased in recent years, with mobile penetration NB: This chapter covers ICT infrastructure and reaching 95.4% and internet penetration 45% at its use by people and the Government. Here, it the end of 2015 (GoZ, 2016) with particularly mainly includes hard infrastructure and policy high uptake of mobile money platforms (Africa usually in place for long-term, physical assets Development Bank, 2019); (GoZ, 2016). The and facilities. While some of the infrastructure urban-rural divide that existed previously in covered is within urban areas, several systems terms of mobile use has reduced, although there connect across provinces and regions, like is still a divide on access to broadband, with fibre-optic cables. The information to manage urban areas on 3G or 4G while parts of the cities is covered by the chapter on information inlands are on 2G or lower (GoZ, 2016) (Africa and data. Development Bank, 2019).

Zimbabwe has a solid foundation and policy Zimbabwe also has a Cyber Security Policy framework to continue to grow the ICT sector. which was adopted in 2016. A further There is high mobile penetration, and growing Cybercrime and Cyber Security Bill is currently use, with mobile money being a driver in the before Parliament, having been approved by sector. However, the sector is impeded by lack cabinet in 2018. This policy regulates data of financial resources and technical skills to protection, electronic transactions and implement these policies. electronic commerce and computer crimes. Supporters of the bill argue that it clarifies the The Government of Zimbabwe has promoted definitions of cybercrime and simplifies the ICT and e-government since 1977, firstly prosecution of crimes such as card cloning, through the Central Computing Services (CCS) identity theft, distribution of child pornography and in recent years through the Ministry of and hacking. It also establishes a Cyber Information Communication Technology. Security Committee. However, critics of the bill Zimbabwe has had a National ICT Policy in consider it a method for stifling freedom of place since 2005, with a second policy expression, limiting access to information and approved in 2018 to cover 2016-2020. This promoting interference into private policy includes objectives to grow the sector: to communications and data - legitimizing in increase usage in all aspects of life, provide extreme case the search and seizure of private broadband access for all, manage challenges devices (Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, 2018). such as cyber security and build an effective This is of even greater concern given the enabling environment for innovation, internet shutdown in January 2019. entrepreneurship and partnering in ICT (GoZ, 2016). One key improvement undertaken Generally, there is political support and recently connected Zimbabwe to undersea fibre commitment to ICT development in Zimbabwe, optic cables, which increase the reliability and

175 although funding remains a serious challenge done mainly using landline communication. (Isaacs, 2007). The Postal and Telecommunications Authority of Zimbabwe (POTRAZ) has worked on The economic challenges in Zimbabwe, several occasions with mobile network particularly the shortage of foreign currency, operators to dispatch early warning or early have hampered the efforts to expand and action messages to people at risk. While there is modernise existing ICT networks. ICT no legal basis in place to ensure the full infrastructure in government is in place participation of existing mobile network although across departments it has become operators (ECONET, NETONE, TELONE) to inadequate unable to cope with larger volumes support early warning and preparedness during of traffic, requiring updates (Duve, et al., 2016). potential disasters, the results of the voluntary A further challenge to delivering high quality cooperation model have been largely positive ICT services is the challenge of electricity (GoZ, 2017). supply, with the national grid providing an erratic supply and alternative power sources The ICT system in Zimbabwe shows has proved adding to the costs of power (Consultations, a resourceful source of resilience through 2019) (Africa Development Bank, 2019) (GoZ, uptake of technology such as mobile money, 2016). A shortage of ICT skills stalls the although it lacks inclusiveness with inadequate development of ICT programmes, both limiting ICT literacy. The Government is championing the numbers of people available to implement infrastructure sharing to improve integration in the programmes and limiting the uptake and the sector. usage of these programmes (Africa Development Bank, 2019) (GoZ, 2016). Even The ICT system in Zimbabwe has some when businesses have access to ICT assets, they resilient qualities, demonstrating are often not utilised effectively. Most resourcefulness with the approach to new companies use email and standard Microsoft technologies, for example the high uptake of Office applications but have not adapted to mobile money leapfrogging traditional advanced applications (such as business to institutions has enabled people to overcome business or business to customer transacting, e- cash shortages. However, the lack of ICT skills ordering, videoconferencing etc.) Some and the low rate of adoption of some new businesses use computers more for record technologies show the system is lacking in keeping, or to portray the company as inclusiveness and reflectiveness. successful (Makiwa & Steyn, 2016) (Ruvinga The system currently also displays redundancy, & Zhou, 2014). While the government is with multiple service providers, although as the prioritising an increase in ICT literacy, e- Cybersecurity and Cyber Crime Bill currently readiness is ranked at 124 out of 139 countries before parliament proposes a single gateway for (Baller, et al., 2016). Zimbabwe lags behind its all internet traffic, this will reduce the regional counterparts in terms of ICT service redundancy in the system. The reluctance for penetration and the rate at which new telecoms firms to share infrastructure shows the technology is adopted (Africa Development system lacks integration, which is also the case Bank, 2019). This is attributed to lack of within Government ICT systems which are not competition (as mentioned above) and integrated between relevant agencies, even corroborated by city consultations when co-located, reducing the resilience of the (Consultations, 2019). system (Duve, et al., 2016).

Regarding the use of ICT in Disaster Risk ICT is heavily reliant on the energy supply. It is Management, currently (GoZ, 2017) this is also closely linked to the economy- cash

176 shortages driving uptake of mobile money while backbone for broadband services, information foreign exchange shortages slow overall and applications to avoid duplication of investment in ICT. ICT is a key driver of the investment by service providers. The economy. Government of Zimbabwe also has a policy to encourage commercial infrastructure sharing. The ICT sector is heavily dependent on the Other policies included enhancing the education quality and reliability of energy supply for curriculum to focus more on technology effective delivery. Power shortages or load orientated subjects, including more funding for shedding cause delivery of ICT services to be Research and Development (R&D). The poor (Africa Development Bank, 2019) African Development Bank also made a range (Consultations, 2019). ICT is also linked to the of recommendations in their 2019 Infrastructure economy in many ways. Cash shortages has Report. driven up usage of mobile money, but foreign currency shortages has held back much needed Recommendations for infrastructure improvement of ICT infrastructure and building development included advocation of a national capacity. It is worth noting that, according to communications grid for ICT based on a fibre the World Bank, a 10% increase in broadband optic network linked to the submarine cables in penetration results in a 1.38% in GDP place on the eastern seaboard of Africa. This contribution in low and middle-income would expand access to reliable and cost- countries (Qiang, et al., 2009). In 2013 ICT effective communications for the majority of contributed 15.2% to Zimbabwe’s GDP (GoZ, Zimbabweans (Africa Development Bank, 2016). The growth of the ICT sector is seen to 2019). Proposed changes to regulations in the positively impact on the economy. There is also Policy include consolidating the regulatory and a clear link with educational systems, oversight responsibilities shared by the particularly in improving ICT skills, growing Broadcasting Authority of Zimbabwe (BAZ) accessibility and ultimately utilising ICT assets and the Postal and Communications Authority effectively in government and business to (POTRAZ) to create a single regulatory improve efficiency (Isaacs, 2007) (Makiwa & authority for ICT. A key proposed legislative Steyn, 2016) (Duve, et al., 2016). In change was to set up a cybersecurity network. consultation, specific concerns were raised over Several changes were suggested to grow the theft of ICT cables, linking directly to the safety ICT sector market, including opening the and security system (Consultations, 2019). domestic market to increased competition by removing limits on the numbers of network There is political will to grow the ICT sector in licenses, encouraging entry of additional service Zimbabwe, with national policies in place. providers and removing restrictions to allow Proposals to increase the resilience of ICT operators to buy backbone services from and systems include infrastructure improvements, sell services to other operators. The Africa streamlining of regulation, stimulating Development Bank also proposed privatization of Net One and Tel One to strategic investors competition in the sector and increasing ICT that have an interest in expanding their role as skills. service providers in the ICT sector. A wide range of policies focusing on ICT Consultations echoed the suggestion for infrastructure, sector growth, e-government, increased competition in the market and a local ICT industry development and empowerment, universal ICT access are greater choice of Internet Service Providers included in the National ICT Policy (GoZ, (ISPs). The final area of focus for the Africa Development Bank was in setting clear targets 2016). A key policy is to set up a national ICT

177 for universal access, including access for disadvantaged or isolated communities, increasing the range of e-applications available by collaboration between government and non- government entities and rebuilding ICT skills in the workforce in general and among civil servants (Africa Development Bank, 2019) in particular. The National level consultations proposed upgrades to ICT systems to meet international standards. However, city consultations were more concerned with reliable access to existing ICT systems proposing solutions such as alternative energy sources for suppliers to ensure reliable power. Consultations also proposed a reduction of tariffs for data and improved access both to ICT and ICT skills training and information through tech hubs, information centers and libraries (Consultations, 2019). The ICT sector has the potential to contribute to the turning-around of the economy of Zimbabwe. (Author, Date).

100 90 80 70 60 50 40

% of of households % 30 20 10 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 % of households of households % 20 10 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 74: Percentage of households with access to mobile telephone (Source: Zimstat, 2015. Note: Province-level data.)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 % of of households % 20 10 0 Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council Figure 73: Percentage of households with access to a fixed line telephone at home (Source: Zimstat, 2015)

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Linear (trunk) infrastructure of Transport and Infrastructural Development Resilience Goal: Diverse and integrated city- with support by secondary organisations wide infrastructure networks, that ensure including the Zimbabwe National Road mobility, energy provision and water supply to Administrations (ZINARA), the National support well-functioning and sustainable cities Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) and the Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe (CAAZ). In NB: This chapter covers trunk infrastructure as 2013, the first National Transport Policy was a broad category of infrastructure projects, that launched with the intention of improving the is required to establish a functional place and is transport infrastructure to reduce the cost of usually overseen, financed and constructed by movement of goods, people and services. The the Government, for shared public use by the water portfolio, since the new Government greater community. Here, it includes transport structure established post 2018 elections, falls infrastructure (road, rail and airport), public under the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, services (water supply and treatment, sewage Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement. The treatment, electrical grid), and other, usually Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA) long-term, physical assets and facilities. While is responsible for delivering water to all rural some of the infrastructure covered is within and urban communities on a commercial basis, urban areas, several systems connect across and for advising the ministry on the formulation provinces and regions, like water catchments of national policies and standards. A few larger and energy generation. Urban services such as cities have their own water companies e.g. WASH which rely on these public works is Harare Water (see chapter on water for more analysed in separate chapters within this report information). There are two main acts on water, solid waste management, sanitation governing water affairs: The Water Act of and hygiene. Similarly, issues related to 1998, and the Zimbabwe National Water resources needed for water and energy are also Authority (ZINWA) Act of 2000. In 2011, after covered in respective chapters. the release of the Energy Act, the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) took over In Zimbabwe, the roles for delivery of trunk the mandates of the Zimbabwe Electricity infrastructure are well established and most Regulatory Commission (ZERC) and the cities have a legacy of well-conceived large Petroleum Regulatory Authority. infrastructure. However, over the last generation, economic challenges in the country Zimbabwe has seen decades of stalled have impeded investments and resources to investment in improvements and maintenance monitor, upkeep or improve infrastructure, of its trunk infrastructure compared. This is ultimately rendering it unfit for purpose today. largely a result of a shrinking financial base (see chapter on local economy for further The extent and quality of Zimbabwe’s trunk discussion) as most industries shut down and infrastructure has been, and will continue to, residents have been struggling to pay for play an important role affecting people’s health services from local authorities amidst high and wellbeing as well as economic growth in levels of unemployment and informalization of the short, medium and longer-term. Various the urban economies. (GoZ, 2015). The agencies of the Government of Zimbabwe are inadequate levels of public finance (which some responsible for the design and implementation argue was further damaged by governmental of infrastructure policy, programmes and corruption) has resulted in an incapacity to implementation within the country. The perform routine and periodic maintenance of transport system in Zimbabwe is made up of the the infrastructure networks, leading to a following main sectors: road, rail and aviation, sustained deterioration in the quality of all of which are administrated by the Ministry

180 infrastructure assets with many of them no of Zimbabwe which is impacting infrastructure longer functioning, or operate at overcapacity systems on both a national and local level and with the risk of failure. (African (Chirisa, et al., 2016) (Consultations, 2019) Development Bank, United Nations, World (Author, Date) The loss of skilled workers is Bank, 2019) . (Africa Development Bank, exacerbated by the scarcity of training and 2019) (UNDP, 2017) (GoZ, 2015). While, there capacity building programmes, especially in have been efforts to improve the regulatory regards to the undertaking, overseeing and environment for infrastructure service providers management large infrastructural projects. in Zimbabwe, it remains deﬁcient (African (Africa Development Bank, 2019). These Development Bank, United Nations, World factors have a long-term impact on the linear Bank, 2019). The 2017 Global Competitiveness trunk infrastructure of Zimbabwe, negatively Report ranked Zimbabwe 108th out of 138 impacting on the robustness of future planning countries included in the survey. and design.

Decentralisation packages which have been put While a lack of investment in infrastructure has in place since 1980s, and should theoretically curtailed optimal operations, some reflective help alleviate some of these issues, have not capacity is demonstrated by limited yet skilled borne positive results for infrastructural system, personnel in institutions within urban areas as the decentralisation of responsibilities has who are striving to maximise the not been mirrored by devolved financial resourcefulness of the system. resources. Most local authorities continue to struggle to provide basic services to their A range of different aspects limit the resilience communities. (GoZ, 2015). Urban local of the basic services infrastructure in authorities have face difficulties in meeting the Zimbabwe. The current lack of capacity to demand for providing basic services like water, provide for urban population growth lacks any sewerage and roads amongst others. (GoZ, level of redundancy. For example, in the energy 2015) For example, the average percentage of sector, the deterioration of generation surfaced roads is 24%, and 87% of the cities capabilities coupled with the degrading of the has less than 40% of the roads surfaced, whilst transmission and distribution network has only 13% have more than 60% surfaced. With resulted in unreliable power supplies and severe regards for water, a third of the major cities electricity shortages. (Africa Development have less than 82% of water coverage with Bank, 2019). The water sector is heavily reliant some urban areas such as Epworth (14%) or on surface water. As the estimated available Lupane (33%) facing critical shortages in groundwater potential is quite low (between 1 coverage. In addition, the average daily supply and 2 million km3 per year); and high climatic of pressurised water is 12 hours and 20% of variability could increase the temperatures and cities that have less than 6 hours of water reduce the average rainfall- this will increase supply. (Consultations, 2019) (Author, Date) water demand both for private use and agriculture. Similarly, the energy sector is very Apart from the problems in the regulatory and dependent on the hydropower generation (Local funding environment, there are also shortfalls in Government Consultations 2019). Currently, personnel and a lack of clarity regarding the electricity is mostly generated through one specific responsibilities of the various entities hydroelectric power plant and four coal-fired involved in service provision. (Africa power stations (see energy chapter for further Development Bank, 2019) (UNDP, 2017). analysis) and is augmented by international Tough economic conditions have also led to a imports which average 16% of total energy significant “brain drain” of skilled workers out supply, a total that increases in periods of shock

181 and stress. Ultimately, a lack of diverse supply Bindura, Gwanda, Beitbridge, Masvingo, systems renders the resilience of the system Recliff) identified during consultation that the inflexible. sewers were often bursting, and the roads are often full of potholes, which is seriously Trunk infrastructure systems also demonstrate affecting the security of the population. The a lack of integration. For example, the constant lack of routine and periodic transport system is heavily dependent on the maintenance is compromising the robustness of use of roads, since railways are not infrastructure systems. interconnected, and the aviation sector is experiencing various challenges including In addition to the lack of integration, the financial constraints and faulty air traffic infrastructure systems are not inclusiveness, control equipment which needs upgrading or especially in terms of reaching people in need, replacement. (Africa Development Bank, such as the poor. For example, people in 2019) (Local Government Consultations Beitbridge highlighted that land allocated to 2019) (UNDP, 2017) (African Development people completely lacked access roads, water or Bank, United Nations, World Bank, 2019). electricity- particularly in peri-urban areas and informal settlements. Gwanda and Chipinge Spatial and inter-system integration is crucial to identified that all the new areas of the city are Zimbabwe, especially considering that it is a lacking road access, whilst the areas that are land locked country (see chapter XX for further already serviced are being further improved. analysis). Currently there is a significant lack (Consultations, 2019) (Author, Date) of integration in the systems at three different levels: within each system (i.e. there is Consultations noted that key infrastructure unreliable connectivity between the water dams institutions have retained personnel that were in and the focus points of demand), between charge during the design and implementation of systems (i.e. the energy and the water systems the current infrastructure, thus indicating a high need to be more integrated in order to have a level of reflectiveness in the people responsible more consistent water supply) and lastly with for infrastructure management, particularly in the systems outside the country, in particular in regard to the understanding of how the systems relation to roads and electricity where the should be planned, design, implemented, connections are weak and need to be reinforced. operated and maintained as well as a potential In relation to water, the potential increase of actions to solve fundamental problems that water storage also needs to be integrated with have led to these situations. During the last the riparian states to avoid increase of tensions decades, having to work with very limited and possible conflict. (ADB, 2019) funds has urged local institutions to become resourceful (Consultations, 2019) The current fragility (lack of robustness) of the trunk infrastructure is a major risk to The main trunk urban infrastructure is heavily Zimbabwe’s urban cities in periods of shock. interconnected - highlighted by the water, food For example, recent meteorological data and energy security nexus, and its resilience (or indicates an increase in the frequency of violent lack of) often has consequences for a range of storms sometimes with hail and strong winds sub-systems. For example, there is a notable that damage infrastructure and property. link between improved sanitation to school (UNDP, 2017). Extreme weather events bring attendance rates, particularly for girls, and the about damage and disruption to infrastructure ability of children to learn. Importantly, it is such as roads, bridges, school buildings and worth noting that most infrastructure issues houses, as well as disruption of electricity have arisen due to lack of investment, which is supplies (UNDP, 2017). Various cities (Harare,

182 directly affected by the country’s macro- Ultimately, improvements in such areas have a economic situation. high payoff in the long term in terms of productivity. (ADB, 2019). One of the most relevant interdependencies in determining the overall resilience of The recently released Zimbabwe Infrastructure Zimbabwean urban centres is the water, food Report developed by the African Development and energy security nexus. The three sectors— Bank, proposes a comprehensive and ambitious water security, energy security and food action plan for the next decade. The main focus security—are inextricably linked and that of it is to rehabilitate and upgrade the bulk of actions in this large system often has far- the basic infrastructure assets of the country reaching consequences. (Bandauko, 2015). For and reinforce the existing integration of example, a reduced or disrupted water supply Zimbabwe’s infrastructure network with the and electricity has an impact on industrial other countries of the Southern Africa region. productivity and viability. (UNDP, 2017) Other initiatives have also been highlighted to (African Development Bank, United Nations, improve the facilitator environment and World Bank, 2019), whilst the failure to policies at the local level and to support public- provide a regular and reliable supply of private-partnerships. electricity has caused the erratic operation of the water supply and sanitation system of urban The recently released Zimbabwe Infrastructure areas, which in turn has led to decreased Report developed by the African Development industrial production and breakouts of water Bank, proposes a comprehensive and ambitious borne health crises exacerbated by national action plan for the trunk linear overstretched systems. infrastructure system over the next decade. The plan focuses on rehabilitating and upgrading the The non-reliability of the transport sector also bulk of the basic infrastructure assets of the has a very significant impact on agriculture, the country and improving the integration of energy sector and the economy. Poor road Zimbabwe’s infrastructure network with the infrastructure has hindered access to markets other countries of the Southern Africa region. and services and consequently constrained The total cost is estimated to be USD $34 agro-based livelihoods and food security. billion at 2017 constant prices, including USD. (UNDP, 2017). The lack of an efficient railway 84% of this (28.5 billions) is estimated for network further hampers growth in the investments in the transport sector (mainly for agricultural sector. the road sub-sector) whilst the water and sanitation would require an outlay of USD $3.7 A strong interdependency can be identified billion and the power $1.1 billion. between water and sanitation systems and the health and the education system. Access to Some of the key features proposed by the 2019- improved water and sanitation has a direct 2030 plan include the rehabilitation of the positive impact on health in Zimbabwe, national power grid and addition of new particularly among children. Good water and generation capacity. Improvements to water sanitation has shown to raise school attendance supply chains and storage systems is included rates, particularly for girls, and the ability of within the budget. There is also planned children to learn. Many school days are also investment in the national road and railways lost because of lack of access to schools network. Private investment is advocated because of destruction of infrastructure, leading (particularly regarding the railway system) and to poor education outcomes. (UNDP, 2017). there is a recognition of the need to streamline the regulatory and oversight system and improve training for workers. Importantly, the

183 proposed Action Plan includes a concerted effort to strengthen funding provisions in the public sector for routine maintenance of infrastructure assets. Failure to increase maintenance budgets will repeat the cycle of the past decade (Africa Development Bank, 2019) .

Proposals mentioned in the plan align with the desires of the populace reflected in the consultations. In addition, stakeholders should consider the thoughts of those consulted regarding the need for diversification of the energy production including alternative renewable sources as solar and wind farms. Exploratory research should be undertaken on the impacts that opening the energy system to the private sector and facilitation of PPPs could have on the resilience of the system

On a more localized scale, ULAs should prioritise improving the accessibility of the transport system by investing in safe and affordable public transport. (Local Government Consultations 2019). Cities should follow the lead of Harare and begin to introduce solar powered street lights and traffic lights, maximising the abundant sunlight found in Zimbabwe. (GoZ, 2015). While boreholes have the potential to provide safe sources of water (UNDP, 2017) these need to be better regulated to discourage individuals extracting from shallow aquafers which may be contaminated (see water, sanitation and hygiene and solid waste management chapters for further analysis).

Increasing investment into the rehabilitation and maintenance of infrastructure like transport can open up urban areas to better growth and competitiveness (Africa Development Bank, 2019) but must occur alongside improved urban spatial planning to ensure maximum effectiveness. (ADB, 2011) (GoZ, 2015).

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Protective Infrastructure 2017) (see chapter on shock and stressor profiles for more information).

Resilience Goal: Effective drainage and storm The clogging of inadequate drainage systems is water management system that ensures public a major cause of flooding in urban areas. safety and, at the same time, recharges aquifers, (UNDP, 2017) (GoZ, 2015). The resilience of protects and enhances surface water quality and drainage systems is further damaged by misuse enhances the functioning values of wetlands of the system by users which cause pipe blockages, illegal activities related to artisan NB: This chapter mainly covers the state of mining, poor planning and the lack of funds manmade and natural infrastructure protection required for regular maintenance. The average from hazards (mainly flooding) in urban areas. maintenance coverage of the drainage system being just 13% and almost 70% of the cities While the responsibilities for managing maintaining less than 10% of the network. infrastructure to protect urban citizens from (Quantitative Data Analysis 2019). natural hazards are clear, there is a lack of preparation and capacity to managing City consultation underlined that residents in all increasing risks. urban areas barring Bindura and Masvingo, Redcliff, Beitbridge, Mutare, Hwange and The Ministry of Local Government, Public Chipinge, perceive that their urban areas have Works and National Housing is the entity high levels of vulnerability to hazards. Apart responsible for the planning, design, from this, both the literature reviewed, and the construction and maintenance of the protective qualitative information gathered during the infrastructure. Within it, the department of Civil consultations, showed the lack of safeproofed Protection is responsible for ensuring that all buildings, including hospitals and schools. urban local authorities are prepared to deal with (Local Government Consultations 2019). all nature of emergencies. Although there is While, cities like Mutare, Hwange and Gwanda support from other agencies such as United identified public buildings and schools as a Nations Development Programme, International form of shelter, several cities like Redcliff Organisation for Migration (IOM) and Red lacked any experience of managing Cross, the department lacks the resources to emergencies. It was also highlighted that there meet the requirements of disaster preparedness is a distinct lack of early warning systems in in the country. (GoZ, 2015) (See chapter on place. Cities are also concerned about the Disaster management for more information) absence of skilled and technical individuals to Heavy and erratic rainfall, hailstorms and manage emergencies (Consultations, 2019) floods are becoming more frequent in (UNDP, Government of Zimbabwe, 2018). Zimbabwe. (UNDP, 2017) Floods usually occur While the lack of robustness and redundancy in annually. Recent records also show an increase protective infrastructure is likely to affect the in violent storms (including hail and strong most poor and vulnerable disproportionately, winds) which damage infrastructure, property there are opportunities to improve the system and crops and cause loss of human and animal through reflection and integration.. life. Floods tend to occur in the southern and northern low-lying areas of Zimbabwe, in the The lack of protective shelters/buildings and paths of cyclones, in between river confluences effective surface water management systems in and downstream of major dams. The frequency cities indicates limited resilience capacity of floods and droughts is increasing in leading to lack of robustness and redundancy in Zimbabwe because of climate change. (CaDRi, relation to protective infrastructure.

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Cities is Zimbabwe are unable to deliver as protective infrastructure or are prone to robustness in their protective infrastructure due damage, disrupting the health and education to lack of standard national guidelines for systems and putting the population in risk. (re)construction of shelters especially in flood Wetlands also have an important role in prone areas. This can result in large scale providing a buffer against flood water which is internal displacement, often to other disaster- linked to ‘climate proofing’ of infrastructure prone areas. (CaDRi, 2017). and the minimization of the risks and associated costs of weather related damage. The urban poor are likely to be disproportionately affected because they face Improvements to the urban protective multiple vulnerabilities, including higher infrastructure needs conscious planning in exposure (e.g. living in hazard-prone areas); terms of improving flood resilience, shelter lack of protective infrastructure (e.g. inadequate provisions, protecting wetlands, capacity or nonexistent drainage systems); lack of state building, planning and assistance (e.g. education on disaster preparedness, response and recovery); Based on the weaknesses of the protective less adaptive capacity (e.g. limited assets to infrastructure systems, it is recommended that invest in resilience); and less financial and legal the Civil Protection Department be financially protection (e.g. lack of insurance and insecure strengthened to enable it to efficiently manage tenure) (Dodman, 2008). flood related and other disasters to limit the danger to human life (UNDP, 2017). A strategy A certain level of reflectiveness is shown by the for ‘climate proofing’ of infrastructure should Department of Civil Protection, which be developed together with implementation periodically produces situation reports that modalities. This should facilitate the gradual contain the numbers of homesteads, schools, conversion of all infrastructure to become as shops and other buildings destroyed in extreme ‘climate resilient’ as possible. (UNDP, 2017) weather disasters such as heavy rains, hail (UNDP, Government of Zimbabwe, 2018). In storms and strong winds, as well as a casualty the short term, it is recommended that local list. There is margin for improvement here as authorities ensure drains are thoroughly cleaned these are not compiled into a coherent database before the rainy season begins. Furthermore, (UNDP, 2017). there is a need for strict adherence to building standards, particularly in urban areas, as part of Protective infrastructure within cities in structural measures for protection against floods Zimbabwe directly affects urban service (UNDP, 2017). Stakeholders also delivery and is in turn affected by management recommended that local authorities enforce of local institutions from a disaster resilience existing regulations and ban the development of perspective. residential or commercial buildings on wetlands. (UNDP, 2017). City consultations The poor performance of the protective proposed further suggestions which included: infrastructure has a direct negative effect on the physical infrastructure, transportation, supply the upgrade and rehabilitation of the drainage and demand of good and services, energy system and construction of dura-walls; provision and industrial production. (GoZ, relocation of critical infrastructure and housing away from flood-prone areas and; developing 2015) Apart from this, protective infrastructure educational programs focused on enhancing is intimately linked as well with the education and health systems, as depending on where the awareness about the dangers of natural hazards, schools and hospitals are located and how they and providing advice for actions to take to mitigate the risks of such hazards. It is also have been designed they can be either be used

186 considered that a cyclone-prone shelter programme is required in particular in the most vulnerable and affected areas (Consultations, 2019) (UNDP, Government of Zimbabwe, 2018).

Currently, processes to support durable solutions for IDPs affected by floods are ongoing and primarily focus on their relocation to areas not prone to floods rather than the rebuilding of communities in danger zones.

Apart from this, the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education has recently started to compile information on damage to educational infrastructure caused by extreme weather conditions throughout the country and the related costs of rehabilitation or reconstruction.

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Urban Form roads (and hierarchy), junctions, size and density of plots, provision of services, social infrastructure, utilities- some of these were Resilience Goal: Well-conceived urban form carrier forward from colonial era and created that meets the landuse needs of the present and unrealistic expectations (Tibaijuka, 2005). Land future allocated to trunk infrastructure comprising of roads, drainage corridors, rights of ways that NB: This chapter covers the physical facilitate development of neighbourhoods is in characteristics that make up built-up urban place with good connectivity (UN-HABITAT, areas, including the shape, size, density and 2014) and accessibility. Layouts do consider the configuration of settlements. It can be studied at issue of compactness of the towns. Planning different scales: from city-wide to standards for layouts are very well developed neighbourhood to single blocks and contribute and applied. There is a wide diversity in urban to the quality of urban life. form observed in Zimbabwe. Based on While most urban areas can be characterised available census data and consultation with 10 as having been planned with good standards urban local authorities and ministries, below and low density, unsustainable sprawl and lack table attempts to classify urban areas in of enforcement has impacted the quality of Zimbabwe by size, functions and type of urban urban life negatively. fabric. See Chapter 2 for further analysis on Zimbabwe’s urban fabric. Zimbabwe has 32 local authorities that are designated as urban, and include city centres, It is worth noting that the country as a whole is suburban and peri-urban areas. Most of the experiencing a de-urbanisation trend in terms of urban areas seem to be still based on plans put percentage of populations living in its urban down by the inception designers on clear urban areas, census data suggests that there are small design principles. However, most urban areas increases absolute populations living in cities are made up of low to very low density (ICED, 2017). Larger towns like Harare and settlements set in semi-rural landscape. The Bulawayo have experienced outward migration means of planning the physical form of cities of middle and upper classes (City Consultation) are in place with policies and landuse plans into rural like gated developments (ICED, existing and somewhat adhered to. Planning 2017) within and on the outskirts of urban standards used in determining the type of areas, while inner cities are experiencing poor development and uses like residential, quality of housing, crime and poor services. commercial and industrial areas with the Although urban population is increasing slowly, inclusion of services, utilities and mobility the physical area occupied by urban requirements are well defined within development is increasing rapidly in an masterplans. The Ministry of Local unsustainable way through urban sprawl. Government, Public Works and National The urban population figures mask underlying Housing is the lead agency which provides the social issues that have an impact on the legislative and policy framework within which resulting urban experience. Cities are fast the local authorities operate to provide expanding into their surrounding areas (see transport, housing and shelter in urban areas chapter on Ecosystems system services and (see chapter on urban governance for more Environment for more information). This refers information). to the way cities have sprawled in physical area The standards used by urban planners in on to peri-urban land with transient populations Zimbabwe contain guidelines for design of and conflicting demands on land for human and

188 environmental functions (City Consultation). meet the high costs associated with low-density Historically, the acquisition of peri-urban farms urban sprawl like building and maintenance of during the Fast Track land reform programme sealed roads, water supply, waste collection, in 2000 provided one of the first opportunities sewerage, increased energy demands like fuel for the urban poor to occupy land around cities and electricity (See chapter on trunk and establish slum pockets all of which have infrastructure for more information) and social now been demolished. Emergence of smaller services. Land grabbing (Consultations, 2019) households with (nuclear families) has also is also resulting in loss of agricultural, resulted in an insatiable desire to own land (also recreational and natural lands. In Zimbabwe, as investment) in urban areas (Chiunya, 2015). the phenomenon of urban sprawl is linked with While cheaper low-density development increase in informal settlements (Chiunya, provides benefits, especially to urban poor like 2015) particularly where plots underserved by cheaper food and access to land for informal infrastructure and interstitial unplanned areas economy including agriculture, it leads to are likely to result in settlement of informal increased costs for transportation, provision of housing (Refer to chapter on Housing for more services, pollution and congestion. The information). government and land developers are unable to Table 18: Examples of Urban Form Typologies Traditional Grids: TraditionalSub -urban Grids: Lower Peri-urban Sprawl: Basic street grid (pre 1900) - planned - high density (per land occupation network with limited road density (per land occupationratio) and medium connectivity. density and usually low building ratio) with higher connectivityExample: Kadoma density (per land occupation major roads. ratio). Example: Harare Example: Epworth

Robust planning guidelines in urban areas have around built areas which could ensure safe ensured that the physical form remains flexible access during disasters and emergencies. These to transformation when needed. types of developments are also most suitable for being reconfigured either through Robust and stringent planning standards have amalgamation or sub-division. Resilience of resulted in most urban areas in Zimbabwe being urban Zimbabwe can be achieved by leveraging defined by simple grid-forms of rectangular design of the urban form particularly for its shaped street layouts. The simple gridded flexibility to accommodate a variety of uses in streets (Porta 2016) allow for efficient design, case future functions and demand scenarios operation and maintenance of trunk change, as well as sometimes, accommodate infrastructure laid under or besides road temporary uses like informal markets and corridors. Clear rights of way are maintained emergency shelter.

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Urban form is affected by by-laws and Habitat, URBAN PLANNING FOR CITY infrastructure such as energy and WASH LEADERS, 2013)(UN-Habitat, URBAN provision. The urban form further affects eco- PLANNING FOR CITY LEADERS, 2013) of systems, safety and local economy. valuable natural, urban and rural environment. Higher-density development should aim for Urban form is directly derived from urban supporting small businesses dependent on policies and standards. Urban Local Authorities available resrouces, supporting a range of social have reported (Consultations, 2019) that the services and facilities that are within walkable standards are considered unachievable and distance of residential areas, economical stringent and they also lack the capacity to provision per of bulk services such as water, adequately enforce standards. Individuals as sewerage and electricity per neighbourhood, well as developers find ways to bypass the encourage us of public transport and bureaucratic process of planning and walkability and mixed land uses to reduce environmental approvals (See Urban and land social and functional fragmentation. There is a use planning chapter for more information). need to review urban policies to facilitate the Cities are this unable to ensure that these plans incorporation of informal urban form into the and policies are regularly updated considering mainstream urban planning (Makunde, emerging vulnerabilities and hazard risks. unknown).

The rapid sprawl of cities like Harare threatens While, incremental housing production and the environmental sustainability of the region upgrade as a means of responding to demand is (Chirisa, et al., 2016). Wetlands are supposed to not sufficiently developed in the law (Tibaijuka, be protected and the layout plans and local 2005), new models of medium and high density plans produced have indicated such but there housing and commercial spaces should be are seldom discrepancies in the environmental developed with decentralised services of good and urban plans (Consultations, 2019) for quality where possible. Due to the inflexibility example Belvedere wetland in Harare by the of capital infrastructure and lack of capacity National Sports Stadium where construction of (human and financial) within Urban Local a multi-purpose centre (hotel and wholesale) Authorities, it is worth recognising that major was recently completed; and a school was built changes cannot be implemented in a short on the Ashdown Park wetlands (Makunde, period of time. The layouts that may result from 2006) among other wetlands from the above implementing new planning standards need to discussion. minimise costs of implementation by reusing and upgrading existing trunk infrastructure, use Urban areas in Zimbabwe need a paradigm land efficiently by increasing density, create shift to improve the urban experience, particularly by adopting models of higher inclusive access to public goods like open density development and incremental housing. spaces and social amenities like schools.

In Zimbabwe, densification of urban areas should be considered a necessary step to promote the long-term sustainability (UN-

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Dimension 4 - Governance and Citizen Participation

This dimension is underpinned by knowledge Subsystems included in this section are: and optimal use of resource. Here we understand how cities learn from the past and 1. Leadership and Governance takes appropriate action, particularly in the 2. Citizens' participation face of known and unforeseen disasters. This 3. Land use governance and town planning includes effective leadership and urban 4. Municipal finance management, characterised by inclusive 5. Information & Data governance involving the government, business 6. Disaster management & Risk Reduction and civil society, and evidence-based decision- making. A city must also empower its stakeholders by providing access to information and, so that individuals and organisations can take appropriate action. It is equally important to ensure that the city develops in an integrated way that aligns the city’s vision with sectoral strategies and plans and individual projects.

This report has chosen to analyse issues related to the urban management from the perspective of people, processes and tools.

The challenges and strengths are analysed to include:

• People: Capacities of people include knowledge of government and non- government organizations and engagement of people. • Processes: Responsibilities, communication and leadership that enables effective implementation and enforcement of policies. • Tools: The technology, equipment and methods that ensure the delivery of good governance and participation.

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Dimension 4: Governance and Service Level Benchmarks. Nevertheless, Participation although welcomed, these goals have not been accompanied by integrated and systemic Summary changes in the function of urban authorities. Foundations for local governance, leadership Ultimately, the robustness in the policy and participation are anchored in Zimbabwe’s framework seems to be insufficient to foster Constitution, and supported by longstanding transformation. ULAs are continuously forced policies. Nevertheless, the policy and to adopt a ‘responsive’ approach to deal with regulatory framework needs to evolve to emergencies in service delivery. This limits accommodate and steer change. For example, it their redundancy, ultimately hindering their is of immediate importance that the government ability to build a long-term resilience agenda. establishes strong regulations to protect the Municipal finance, governance and environment and eco-system services and participation, and planning have very high enacts legislation to unlock the potential of the levels of centrality in that they regulate and informal economy. De facto devolution of manage the urban system. Integrated power and resources to local authorities must interventions which build urban resilience must occur to enable the establishment of LEDs. necessarily include the support of local Administrative processes and governance governance and municipal finance resources. mechanisms are in place to enable effective The development of an urban resilience agenda decision-making and management, yet the is politically supported across national and local processes are persistently challenged by levels, and key stakeholders have demonstrated political influences, which also limit citizen a willingness to engage. Expert agencies such participation. Inclusive participation of citizens as the UNDP and UN-Habitat are present and in the decision-making and service-delivery is have the mandate and technical tools or unanimously voiced as one of the priorities. capacities to support work in this area. DRM mechanisms are increasingly focusing on Moreover, academics have expressed a will to comprehensive resilience planning and climate assist policy-making at local level. A number of change adaptation. Although gradual, this initiatives and processes exist with the potential process is promising for urban resilience. for upscale, including (but not limited to) the Local governance mechanisms exist to deal Spotlight Initiative, Look & Learn, SLB and with sudden shocks, yet their capacities are Clean City Africa. There is an urgent need to perceived to be limited. Municipal finance prioritise the participation of stakeholders from restrictions increase vulnerability across all across civil society, especially young people subsystems in most Urban Local Authorities. and women. Whilst experiences have enhanced civil protection capacity somewhat, response is ultimately limited by insufficient risk-data, equipment and resources. Positive DRM responses have occurred during instances of health epidemics and should be analysed as examples of good practice.

Dynamic resilience qualities in this dimension highlight reflectiveness, particularly regarding the current policy framework for decentralization, and an increased emphasis on monitoring through mechanisms such as

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Governance & Leadership the existing tensions between elected and Resilience Goal: The local government is able administrative arms of the urban councils, 3) to provide services to the community in an the need for strengthening technical capacities appropriate, efficient, equitable, and and human resources and tools. sustainable manner. The interaction between the three-tier state A clearly laid-out governance & leadership bodies is sub-optimal, despite the local mechanisms enshrined in the 2013 Constitution, governance roles and responsibilities being but ULAs struggle to assert fully self-contained highlighted by the Constitution (2013) and autonomous local governance that mobilises subsequent policies (GoZ, 2013). The partnerships necessary for modern urban local mechanisms of control employed by national development and resilience building government, although initially designed to generate interaction and establish accountability As illustrated in Chapter 2 of this research, the in line with the Acts of Parliament, often result local government system is enshrined within in costly and inefficient interferences in the the 2013 Constitution [Ch. 14], which outlines normal local administrative and managerial the structure and operational mechanisms (GoZ, processes (National Level Consultations, 2019) 2013) of local authorities, one of the three-tiers (Consultations, 2019) (Chigwata & de Visser, of state administration in the country. 2018) (Makunde, 2006) (GoZ, 2015a) Ultimately, this is a concerted attempt to shift (Madzivanyika, 2011). According to the power, to a degree, from the central Zimbabwe United Residents Association & government. This is evidenced by Section 276 Combined Harare Residents Association of the Constitution which states that local (2003:5), the legal process of devolution has authorities have ‘the right to govern’. The occurred without devolution of power, Constitution determines a varied degree of functions, and financial capacities. devolution for each urban authority, which are Nevertheless, consultations in other areas, for also sub-divided into Cities, Municipalities, instance Hwange and Chipinge, revealed strong Towns and Local-Boards, depending on their processes seem to be in place in place for size. The administrative boundaries and transparent and collaborative policy-making, functions are stated in the Urban Councils and hand-in-hand with the national Government Rural District Councils Acts (1989). Urban (Consultations, 2019). Relationships between councils (GoZ, Urban Councils Act, Ch. 29:15) local and national authorities often evolve along have two structures for service delivery (Refer political lines but can also be impacted by other Chapter 2): a policy-making component factors. For instance, the Habitat III report composed of elected councilors, and an mentions the role of the MLGPWNH in appointed executive. A ceremonial mayor is ‘restor[ing] order to some local authorities’ elected from among the councillors at the first which had been compromise by corruption and sitting of elected councilors. The mayor chairs inefficiencies by reclaiming power. What is council meetings and represent the council at certain is that the ‘exercise of national public events. supervision’ (Chigwata & de Visser, 2018) remain controversial at best. From an urban Three issues arise from literature and resilience standpoint, there is indeed room – consultations concerning the processes, people and need – to improve national to local level and tools of the Governance & Leadership cooperation and ensure that national oversight system in Zimbabwe which have relevance for and accountability continues but is to resilience: 1) the sub-optimal national to accompanied by devolution of power and local relationship and delivery of resources, and ultimately a greater space for decentralisation and devolution processes, 2)

193 participation at local level for civil society support (Goz & UNDP, 2019). Following associations and urban dwellers (Also reference Cyclone Idai, technical training on urban Section 4.). Global experiences in urban planning and resilience conducted by UN- resilience show the need for local level Habitat and UNDP (Consultations) were also leadership that can set long-term programmes appreciated in Chipinge. In Victoria Falls, for and cooperate with all tiers of the state, while instance, the council reported (Consultations, building partnerships with the private and civil 2019) that although they have skilled sectors in the urban areas. “Decentralised, manpower in place for disaster management multi-stakeholder, adaptive and participatory programming, there is need for the Government governance” which is “autonomous, to ‘complement’ efforts at local level still, while accountable and flexible” (Fraser, A. and in Redcliff there is high demand for training Kirbyshire, A., 2017) is a well-recognised pre- and capacity-building. Several councils condition to generate sustainable resilience reported the existence of continuous knowledge outcomes. This area will require particular sharing mechanisms between councils, attention within the broader contextual including a ‘Look and Learn’ policy mentioned framework of the decentralisation and in the Harare, Beitbridge and Mutare devolution processes in Zimbabwe. consultations, which helped enhance efficiency (Consultations, 2019). Such programmes are Secondly, there seems to be a consensus from key to enable effective resilience programming the consultations (2019) on the tensions over the long-term. between elected representatives, and council officials. Tensions arise over the politicisation In this context, unresolved tensions between of appointments, and competencies. Political national and local level, and between political appointments are seen to be a bottleneck to and administration levels at local level hinder accountability of officials to superiors, citizens the full potential of urban councils in and the council; while qualifications and Zimbabwe to engage in urban resilience competencies amongst officials in the planning and delivery. The Presidential Paper bureaucracy may be perceived to be on devolution restates the need to empower intimidating for the elected councillors local governance and enhance people’s (Sachikonye, et al., 2007). Co-operation must participation in the decision-making process be improved between elected personnel and the There is also a thrust among stakeholders to administrative roles at all levels of the shift local authorities towards proactive policy bureaucracy (Consultations, 2019) (RTI developers rather than merely administrators International, 2010) and service-deliverers. Such political discourse is promising: but unresolved tensions and Thirdly, concerning skills and tools for urban insufficient financial and human resources, governance, consultations at national level hinder the leadership-role urban council must (2019) concurred that there is a need for play to build and sustain a resilience agenda. strengthening given the ‘skill-flight’ driven by economic situation and the scale of challenges. The robust anchorage of governance within the Lack of human resources for developing constitution and the current policy thrust climate change management programmes towards decentralisation are positive elements within urban systems was mentioned in in building the required leadership for the consultations (2019) across Cities, urban resilience agenda. But limited inclusive Municipalities, Towns and Local Boards; and governance processes and low levels of has been underlined in Harare and Bulawayo integration across arms of the local authorities which have benefitted from external technical

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Figure 75. How decentralisation works. Abstract from UN-Habitat. World Cities Report (2016) Chapter 6, p. 109 limit the potential for leadership to emerge at (RTI International, 2010). The political local level and drive the resilience agenda. discourse, crystallised in the Presidential Paper Also, the chronic stresses generated by failures on Devolution (2019); the Habitat III report of in service-delivery and the effects of stochastic the Republic of Zimbabwe (2015); the preamble events force leadership to respond to to Chapter 14 of the Constitution (2013); and challenges rather than proactively anticipating sectoral strategies, such as that on Disaster them. Management; all refer to inclusiveness in governance. There are examples in which local Consultation and existing literature (e.g. authorities are actually attempting to involve (Chigwata & de Visser, 2018) have concluded different stakeholders, e.g. Chipinge that the Constitution (2013) sets the basis for (Consultations, 2019), but these are often securing local governance and enhancing related more to the complementary delivery of deeper local democracy through elections and basic services (for instance in the case of participation. Nevertheless, there is consensus NGOs) than in actual policy-making. The that the de jure establishment of polarisation along public-public (e.g. decentralization, has not been reflected in the de insufficient cooperation between elected and facto situation. In this context, leadership at appointed officials) or public-civil lines (e.g. local level struggles to emerge. A potentially insufficient open and transparent participation robust system thus fails to fully achieve the of civil society in public affairs) are still required robustness. There are promising mentioned widely. practices initiated at local level, however, that demonstrate reflectiveness, such as the ‘Look & Learn’ peer-learning method, and integration for example a special inter-departmental team (with members from all council departments) set-up in Bindura to champion water and sanitation issues (Consultations, 2019).

According to consultations and literature the Governance system could be more inclusive than it presently is (GoZ, 2015) (Jonga, 2014)

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Lastly, in national and local consultations (2019), sub-systems in urban areas. Reinforcing local in literature (GoZ, 2015) and in policies governance and leadership is likely to generate (Constitution 2013) there is agreement on the need high value across all sub-systems. to shift from service-delivery and administration towards proactive policy development. For The development of full-fledged leadership, instance, the Habitat III (2015) report mentions effective governance and managerial capability that “local authorities need to come up with that anticipates and responds to shock sand strategies to revive the industries which have shut stressors and delivers services is pivotal for all sub- down…his may be in the form of incentives like systems to perform: tax concessions” (p. 36) (Habitat-III, 2015). • Citizen participation in Zimbabwe (refer to Nevertheless, the interplay of the macro-economic section in this chapter) could be enhanced context, restricted fiscal space to tackle the chronic greatly by a more inclusive leadership stressors related to service-delivery and the approach, which enabled the participation of recurrent idiosyncratic or covariant shocks such as multiple stakeholders. the cholera outbreaks in Harare City, Chitungwiza, • Water, sanitation, solid waste-management Epworth, Gokwe, Beitbridge (WHO, 2018); GoZ, largely depend on the ability of administrative 2014); Cyclone Idai in Chipinge (UN Migration, and political arms of the urban council to 2019)]. Ultimately, most authorities exist in a state cooperate, and different departments to of quasi-constant emergency and response, where integrate planning across departments acting strategically remains extremely difficult. • Environment & eco-system services; urban In summary, governance mechanisms have form; and infrastructure delivery all depend on potential to develop the inclusive and robust inclusive, robust, reflective and integrated leadership required to implement an urban governance & leadership. resilience agenda. However, the accumulation of • Local economy. The evolving role of local stresses and the recurrent shocks of medium to authorities to policy formulators ensures they high intensity in urban society, as well as the “fill the void created by the scaling down by unresolved tensions between stakeholders, central government as the main initiator and undermines leadership at local level and forces sponsor of development at the local level” leadership to be ‘responsive’ rather than strategic. (GoZ, 2015). However, currently capacities of There is need to help authorities to progress to local governance & leadership to fulfil this role unlock their strategic potential. This should begin is challenged by financial and technical with a provision of simple planning tools which resources (GoZ, 2015), as well as by persisting enable urban policy-makers to agree on a common political tensions mentioned above. urban resilience agenda, which in turn would Conversely, governance & leadership are address sources of tensions through the roll-out of influenced by the performance of sub-systems at the devolution process. Processes of urban level and the overall national framework. accountability, such as the Service Level Directly interdependent sub-systems that influence Benchmarking programme, should be reinforced governance & leadership include, among others, and extended, and tailored to individual Cities, municipal finance. In the current context the Municipalities, Towns and Local Boards reflective capabilities to invest in training, secure of the respective level of complexity. professional services, and implement strategies is Governance & leadership has a very high highly influenced by poor own-revenue collection centrality and indegree level, influencing all other

196 and the limited contribution from the national level promotion of financial and democratic to municipal resources. accountability. Potential actions include:

All interventions aiming at building urban • The documentation and replication of peer- resilience in Zimbabwe will have to strengthen and learning practices such as ‘Look and Learn’ integrate the administrative management and policy mentioned in the Harare, Beitbridge and leadership. The current policy environment and Mutare consultations, which helped enhance thrust must be leveraged to this end, existing good efficiency (National and (Consultations, 2019) practices documented and replicated, and • Utilizing support from academia (National academia involved in training and policy-making Level Consultations, 2019)to enhance policy- support. making through action-oriented research, capacity-development, the secondment of The opportunity to strengthen the ability of graduates and students to local authorities and governance & leadership to contribute to urban the development of dedicated curricula resilience is grounded in the current policy • The development of systematic training landscape, including the Constitution, the programme for both councillors and officials Presidents 2018 Devolution Programme, the on the model developed in in Tanzania. National Adaptation Plan and the Institutions like The Zimbabwe Open recommendations of the Habitat III report (2015). University could introduce pilot programmes. In general, overtime, building urban resilience will (RTI International, 2010) require resolving existing tensions and establishing a context of mutual trust and accountability from Employ a range of the tools tailored for policy- national to local level, and at local level. makers (councillors, managers, leaders, Moreover, is worth focusing on capacity-building administrators), such as Arup’ City Resilience for policy-makers – councillors and administrators Strategies for larger cities or municipalities (e.g. – on urban resilience; dedicated technical training Bulawayo, Harare, Mavsingo or Gokwe) and for administrative and managerial staff; and the CityRAP (UN-Habitat) tools for Towns and Local Board, to develop an urban resilience strategy.

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Citizen Participation crippling resource challenges because of the declining economic environment and have subsequently been criticized by citizens for poor Although there are very strong participatory service delivery as well as declining levels of processes in place, resource challenges and a public consultation (Consultations, 2019). The lack subsequent decline of service delivery has created of such defined platforms where information is a lack of trust between citizens and their local shared, and challenges and solutions are discussed elected leaders. There is however a rise in has heightened the conflict between local participation through civic groupings which authorities and residents. continuously try to push their agenda, many times successfully. This lack of success ultimately limits Although local authorities aim to advance the participation from the urban youth and the poor. principles of participatory budgeting, the 2011 budget, as the case with previous budgets (2004 The Prime Minister’s directive of 1984 made it a and 2009), was heavily criticized at failing to meet requirement to establish participatory structures the needs of the residents of Harare (Chirisa & from the grass roots level to champion community Kawadza, 2011). Consultation meetings that were development. There are also statutory provisions held in some cities prior to the budgets were captured in the primary and subsidiary legislation characterized by massive confusion and thus there governing local authorities. The Urban Councils was limited or no participation from the Act [Chapter 29:15,] the Rural District Councils communities (Chirisa & Kawadza, 2011) (Harare Act [Chapter 29:13] and the Public Finance Residents Trust, 2013). It is evident that citizens Management Act [Chapter 22:19] lay out are more willing to participate in community minimum conditions for citizen participation in initiatives that directly provide them with financial critical local government processes. No local benefits, such as self-help projects. authority budget can be approved without proof of consultation of the stakeholders, including Overall, citizens shy away from participation in residents and business owners among others. For political life largely because the immediate results any development to take place within an urban set of that kind of participation do not speak directly up, the would-be developer is required to put an to issues of poverty and hunger, which citizens are advertisement in the press for possible objections confronted with daily (NANGO, NIHR, 2011). and recommendations (GoZ, 2015). Each council Because citizen participants are not paid for their is mandated to come up with its own stakeholder time, some committees are sometimes dominated map and invite them to planning or feedback by strongly partisan participants whose livelihood meetings. There are several programmes geared to or values are strongly affected by the decisions ensure that the interests of children, youth and being made, or by those who live comfortably vulnerable groups are represented at various enough to allow them to participate regularly. planning levels (GoZ, 2015). However, the Youth refrain from participation as they are afraid initiatives taken are largely localized and to be used for political gain. (Mapuva, 2011) fragmented with no common institutionalized (Consultations, 2019). approach on citizen participation (UNDP, 2017). Nevertheless, some civil organisations, particularly In theory then, formal participatory processes are Residents Associations, remain extremely active in place. However, the execution of these and play a key role in influencing citizens in processes is questionable (GoZ, 2015). In the past demanding for their rights to participate in local two decades, local authorities have battled governance (Chirisa & Kawadza, 2011). Civil

198 organisations push their agenda for reform in shows a lack of reflectiveness as a feature of the matters affecting daily life and not on partisan urban system. lines. (Kamete, 2009). Due to these associations, urban areas tend to have a significantly higher The system’s capacity for flexibility has allowed level of political consciousness than rural areas in informal methods of participation to thrive. For Zimbabwe (Mapuva, 2011). However, civil example, the Combined Harare residents organizations are not normally inclusive, and the Association (CHRA) and Harare Residents Trust poor are often untouched these formal structures. (HRT) have organised different meetings in water- Instead they rely on a host of informal associations stressed places like Mabvuku in order to within their communities that often lack the successfully pressurise Harare City Council to capacity to influence government decision making, refrain from cutting water supply to the residents and which are by-and-large limited in number, unable to settle monthly bills. (Africa resources and leverage (Kamete, 2009). Development Bank, 2019).

The reaction from the state to both formal and The lack of alignment of Zimbabwe society’s informal civil organization groups has been hostile. formal institutions (i.e., its codified laws and Levelling criticism against the government has regulations) with its informal institutions (i.e., the often been labelled as enmity of the state, and norms, values and beliefs of its population) limits therefore such organizations have been under fire the local government’s capacity to reduce risks (Kamete, 2009). Despite declining support from and manage the response and recovery to shocks central government, local authorities continue to and stressors including infrastructure, service feel an obligation to establish structures for delivery, land use planning and budgeting. meeting of minds between citizens and government Effective operation of local government is a viable tiers. instrument for the delivery of essential services to This system shows a capacity to be flexible, the people will, and any weakness in the system resourceful and reflective – looking to previous will affect adversely, the lives of the citizens (Abe experiences to involve people in decisions either & Monisola, 2014). A lack of participatory formally or with alternative means. Civic processes or absorption of the views of the people participation is not inclusive, and this is further directly impacted by policies will cause cascading hampered by aspects of the leadership who do not effects on the economy, service delivery and show qualities of being reflective. governance structures. Fore example, a lack of community participation in the planning process Individual citizens show a capacity to be has led to mushrooming of unplanned/self-planned resourceful and reflective of past experiences settlements especially in Harare, which has through participation in such associations, however resulted in the emergence of social conflicts over the governance perceives criticism as a threat. For access to land and other resources in Harare as example, although the Institute for a Democratic well as challenges to the sanitation and health Alternative for Zimbabwe (IDAZIM) systems triggered by the lack of supportive organised several meetings involving councillors infrastructure. The collage below shows some of and mayors in the country, it has meet a lot of the informal settlements that have cropped-up resistance from the ruling party because of its ties in Hopley suburb, Harare. Some of the houses with the opposition. (Chirisa & Kawadza, 2011). collapsed during the rainy season due to the poor The leadership’s need to rule with an iron fist quality of materials used and lack of proper planning and supervision. (GoZ, 2015).

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Training for officials in charge of running them to develop an attitude for participation which participatory workshops and better stakeholder includes respect and tolerance of other people’s planning is necessary. Improving reach of public views, and a willingness to learn, which will interest notices to a wide spectrum of people of all enable sustainable engagement between local backgrounds who could potentially be impacted by government stakeholders. (UNDP, 2017) Adequate decisions is essential. information on pertinent issues of public interest should be provided to citizens. For example, Effective citizen participation requires urban information must be provided on revenue collected government and officials to enact policies and by councils from different sources, the actual status programs that promote citizenship rights and of projects being undertaken and the actual state of obligations. Officials need to be provided training services such as water provision. Resources need on adhering to principles and values that include to be set aside to explore the use of new transparency, inclusivity, accountability, gender communication technologies as the advent of e- parity and teamwork (Consultations, 2019). consultations in Zimbabwe’s urban areas could be Authorities in charge of organising workshops and an efficient and cost-effective tool. (Mugano, consultations must be given training that enables 2018) (Consultations, 2019).

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Urban and land use planning There are five key issues within the planning and regulatory environment with significance for Resilience Goal: Urban policies that are well resilience conceived, relevant, with appropriate flexibility aimed at sustainable development of cities and Firstly, while originally well-conceived, planning respond to changing situations in different places acts and appended regulations, have not evolved to and different times. respond to significant transformations of the city, the economy and the demographic changes. The strength of the current planning system is Zimbabwe urban planning was mostly driven by rooted in time resilience acts and adherence to ‘blueprint’ planning, which is still largely manifest master-planning; but the current context in the urban form (Refer Chapter 2 and Urban challenges the viability of traditional planning Form Section). Planning approaches by and large approaches, which are insufficiently responsive to disaggregated urban areas into low, medium and informality, economic downturns, sudden shocks high density, which were associated with income and recurring stresses. brackets. This perverse heritage of colonial As described in Chapter 2, Zimbabwe has a strong planning negated mixed usage and social mixing and is unfit for a situation currently characterized planning background with robust legal structures. by strong circular mobility, the penetration of Although originating in the colonial period, and thus rooted in racialism and segregation there is digital technology, and the dominance of informal also a broad consensus (Consultations, 2019) that it economy, which instead requires a dynamic and flexible planning approach that anticipates and has provided the basis for the adherence to master- accommodates change. Overall, the rigidity of planning that has characterised independent Zimbabwe. This has had a mixture of positive and application of RTCP Act and high standards set in negative impacts on the resilience of the system. policies are considered unresponsive to the current The adherence to this has delayed informal needs (Tibaijuka, 2005); (Consultations, 2019). (Marongwe, 2011). development and encroachment on right of way. This preserved positive features for resilience, such Secondly, the traditional rigidity of the planning as connectivity (depending on the urban form, refer environment for formal housing, in combination to section on Urban Form) that facilitates business, with the increased housing demand because of eases emergency access, reduces costs of transport population growth, ushered in a period of severe and facilitates walkability. On the other hand, it deregulation and lowering standards. The National has also protracted negative practices of unitary Housing Delivery Policy of 2000 acknowledged a planning that disincentivize mixed-use, one of the cumulative backlog of over 1 million housing units key features of good planning (III, 2015). (Refer to Section on Housing) and called for a Moreover, while this clarity in guidance is a flexible approach to housing delivery. This was reference for planners, the academia, and policy- supported by changes to The Layout Design (1997) makers (Reference Urban Form section) of ‘what by Circular 70 of (2005) which reduced the good looks like’ yet also protracts a traditional classification of high density from 300 sq/meters to approach to planning, which does not respond well 75 sq/meters and adopted lower building standards, to the dynamic and volatile context. for example allowing wood to be used as a key building material. In parallel to this, the government also promulgated statutory instrument 216 of 1994 which partially deregulated industrial

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activities in residential areas. It recognized legally urban councils. Although there is guidance and a home as both shelter and workplace (Kamete, mapping of environmentally-sensitive areas in 2010). This thrust towards deregulation, resulted in Harare, prepared by the EMA (Refer to chapter 2) the acceleration of urban sprawl, environmental an on-going discussion regarding how to consider degradation and informality. this within the National Adaptation (GoZ and UNDP, 2017), these processes have not yet Thirdly, the ability to control urban development resulted in tangible outcomes. and ensure it conforms to regulations, has been vastly reduced due to several drivers. Primarily, The robustness of the planning system is a the pressure of the macro-economic context on building-block towards the reduction of unplanned local authorities hinders the provision of service developments that may further enhance infrastructure on laid-out areas, effectively vulnerability of urban areas to the adverse effects transforming formally planned areas in informal of natural hazards. But insufficient flexibility and settlements. Previously, planned development was inclusiveness limits the planning system’s capacity tendered to private sector for implementation by to anticipate change and adapt dynamically to the the local authorities, but a lack of financial pressure of stresses. resources has reduced local authority control over this, and housing is often completed by The planning system in most urban areas in the cooperatives or land-barons (ICED, 2017) who country demonstrates a remarkable robustness, and exploit the rules and insure their independence the Acts, design guidance and policies which from regulation through pressure (Bond, 1993) and govern it are sufficiently robust, according to financial incentives (Consultations, 2019). (Consultations, 2019). There is also general agreement that the RTCP Act (Consultations, Fourthly, competencies in urban and land-use 2019) sufficiently flexible to accommodate planning exist in Zimbabwe thanks to a tradition of development over decades and in different planning education delivered by the University of governance dispensations. Zimbabwe, Midlands State University, Great Zimbabwe University as well as Polytechnics An attempt to reflect on the current context, to schools, and Professional Associations. Together understand the root of current challenges and they graduate more than 100 planners per year. initiate appropriate changes accordingly is clear However, most graduates are not absorbed by the through the current discussion on the National market in planning, especially at local level, and Adaptation Plan (GoZ and UNDP, 2018), the few are employed in real estate or in design preparation of a new Human Settlements policy practices (Consultations, 2019)All cities, (Consultations, 2019) and thought-pieces on by- municipalities, towns and even local boards have laws. planning departments, staffed by planners and On the flip-side, reflection is not accompanied by technicians, yet the macro-economic context flexibility and inclusiveness, which limits the continues to induce high turn-over rates which ability of the planning system to initiate the reduce the capacities of local authorities transformation required by the context and current (Consultations, 2019) shock and stressor profile. Zimbabwe's urban Finally, there is no evidence at present of planning has been described as lacking an ability to consistent consideration of natural hazards and respond to the prevailing socio-economic realities climate change in urban and land-use planning, nor (Potts, 2006; WB, 2015). The practitioners widespread use of risk assessments across the 32 (Consultations, 2019) argued that this is primarily

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regarding the inflexible and non-inclusive shift from static, ‘blue-print’ planning to more interpretation and implementation of otherwise dynamic and anticipatory spatial planning, with a sound policies. progressive reform of tools, such as by-laws, building regulations, land-use planning and Limited integration across planning scales is associated processes: this will likely be a long-term manifest in the lack of co-design and integrated process. But it is urgent that it is initiated through planning of environment and land-use provisions, practical city-scale interventions, such as including within the development of climate simplified risk-assessments; hotspot mapping, change, urban and disaster resilience policies. For business continuity planning; city-resilience plans example, the RTCP and the Environment (Also refer to the section on Disaster Risk Management Acts are managed by separated Management). Ministries, Departments and agencies. In urban areas this results in a duality of environmental and The planning system has significant centrality both land-use planning: for instance, in obtaining a from the indegree and outdegree angle. development permit the developer is obliged to Shortcomings in the planning system affect consult and prepare environmental impact environment, water, sanitation, transport and assessments before any development on the ground SWM, which in turn affect health and livelihoods. is made. However, the same development permit It is influenced heavily by governance and must be obtained under local authorities planning municipal finance, and the overall macro- documents. This reduces efficiency and may result economic context. in non or partial-compliance and alternative routes to obtain permits (Consultations, 2019). The current planning system of Zimbabwe’s urban centres has immediate effects on other systems, i.e. ‘Blueprint’ physical planning, does not accommodate the views from communities, • Environment & eco-system services are vulnerable groups, children, women, youth and affected negatively under the current thus lack inclusiveness. The continuation of context by informal planning structures ‘exclusionary’ zoning, which has been surpassed in which do not anticipate, prevent, or control theory and practice in other countries, does not changes to the environment. It is accommodate other land-uses dictated by the absolutely crucial that the environment and prevailing land market condition. In a highly urban planning are integrated; volatile macro-economic context, this lacks the • Water, sanitation, SWM – and secondarily responsiveness necessary to absorb stresses and transport and energy – are currently adapt to economic and social requirements. adversely affected by challenges in implementing planned extensions to new The key challenge from a disaster-prevention areas, which initiates unsustainable perspective, is the observed lack of risk-sensitive practices which can lead to health risks. It land-use planning, and anticipatory design which is of paramount importance that the resort accounts for changes in climate. to alternative technologies to source water and energy (if needed in the current In summary, under the current shock and stressors context) are used sustainably and profile, the current configuration of the planning accompanied by authorities through more system (robust processes, competent people) has reflective planning large untapped potential to contribute to reducing • Social capital. ‘Blueprint’ planning, while the risk and accommodate change. This requires a providing guidance and benefits from the

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physical planning perspective, is also There is a need to improve data collection unresponsive to the needs of people, regarding urbanization. A robust data base should particularly children, women and people be established, defining what urban areas are and with disabilities. In addition, the what can lead to proper measurements of urban promotion of mixed-use planning is now resilience. This can be achieved by engaging globally recognized as a practice that international development partners, civil society enhances the resilience of cities and and NGOs in monitoring urban trends (ICED, promote social capital. 2017).

The planning system in Zimbabwe is particularly There is also a great need for integrated influenced by issues rooted in: commitment between central government and local authorities and the community at large when • Leadership and management. making decision of national interest (Tibaijuka, Consultations highlighted cases in which 2005). To reflect this commitment, regulations and politically-driven directives contrast ethical standards of planning should be improved technically and evidence-backed decision- which consider all stakeholders (Muchadenyika, making. Improved integration at all scales 2017). In this regard, the planning professional (national to local governance) and across body ZIRUP should be legally recognised and sectors (e.g. housing, environment, mandated with functions such as registration, economy) is crucial to enable resilient monitoring and evaluation of professional planning; planners. • Macro and local-economy. It is difficult to disentangle the planning system from the Changes to the planning framework, in particular burden of an under-performing economy the removal of the requirement for in-person and local economy, which limits municipal representation, would promote the public at large finances, disenables borrowing, and (Marongwe, 2011). There is also a wider and increases the unwillingness to invest in immediate need for the Government of Zimbabwe infrastructure. There must be a prominent to revise the outdated planning regulations and area of work to link planning systems and other relevant Acts, so that the substance and the revenue generation. procedures of these regulations reflect the social, economic and cultural realities facing most of the There are a multitude of opportunities to enhance population, namely the poor. the ability of the planning system in Zimbabwe to contribute in vulnerability reduction and resilience building

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Municipal Financing

Resilience Goal: Cities remain economically inaccurate valuations, and inept collection sustainable whilst delivering a high level of enforcement (Gideon & Chilunjika, 2013). services and, at the same time, taxes are kept sufficiently low to encourage individuals and Employment costs remain a significant percentage businesses to remain in the area. of overall spending, creating significant fiscal risks (Government of Zimbabwe World Bank, 2017)as There is a legal framework in place to support cities are preoccupied with paying salaries to municipal financing. However, opportunities for continue to function. Local authorities are losing revenue generation are often restricted by skilled and qualified staff due to skills flight to the inadequate regulatory frameworks, a private and the diaspora (De Visser, et al., 2010). disadvantageous political structure, and poor In addition, the system is also lacking in the enforcement/collection mechanisms. This is further technological infrastructure and capacity (GoZ, compounded by the weak financial environment of 2015) to compliment and equip skilled staff. the country and subsequent poor urban service delivery for the cost. Zimbabwean municipal financing system is constrained by a limited revenue base (Gideon & Local authorities in Zimbabwe exercise varying Chilunjika, 2013) and weak debt collection taxation and expenditure powers within the process methods (Government of Zimbabwe World Bank, of fiscal decentralization. The 2013 Constitution 2017). The Heavy dependency on user fees recognises the need for equitable revenue sharing collected upon approval of services that are among the tiers of government. The Constitution regularly sub-standard is also a key issue and requires the allocation of ‘not less than five per causes low collection rates and ultimately hinders cent of the national revenues raised in any financial cost recovery(Government of Zimbabwe World year’ to provincial and metropolitan councils and Bank, 2017). Compounding to this problem is local authorities. This constitutional requirement failure to recover debts owed in a hyperinflationary was adopted to ensure that subnational environment (De Visser et al., 2010) as well as the governments do not rely solely on the national difficulty of collecting user fees in informal government for resources, however, the adequacy settlements because of their non tenure nature. of this percentage in guaranteeing a sound (Mazorodze et al., 2011). financial base for each provincial council, metropolitan council and local authority is Undemocratic legislative amendments are manifest questionable. (Chigwata, 2018) in the Urban Councils Act of 1995, where participation is characterized by delegation rather The traditional municipal financial base is than devolution of power and functions. The Act is supported from property tax, development levy, built upon the concept of upward accountability user charges and license fees, as well as and not Local accountability (e.g. local people and intergovernmental transfers, borrowing and income civic groups has little to say on many issues) generating projects (GoZ, 2015). There is a (Chatiza, 2010) promising potential revenue source in untapped property taxes for local authorities in Zimbabwe, The majority of people do not understand the Property taxation rates are low due to absence of Council financial processes or participate in fiscal cadastre information, lack of valuators, consultations focusing on financial concerns. The

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three main reasons for not participating are either The municipal financing system does not have a they are not aware of meetings , do not understand robust team of skilled and qualified, elected the issues or just not interested (Muchadenyika, personnel to deal with formal and complex 2018) . This results in a deterioration in the municipal finance issues. This is mainly due to accountability of local government systems of skills flight and lax selection criteria for the elected finance (Jonga, 2014). staff. This is worsened by the lack of technological advancement and trained tech experts in local This system needs urgent configuration in terms of authorities (De Visser, et al., 2010) redundant financing options, integration of policy and regulation in the finance institution, and more The municipal financial base is substantially inclusive participatory options in order to be affected by the pressure of intertwined drivers that resilient to shocks and stressors. within the macro-economic context; challenges in capturing value from informal economic activities: There has been attempts by the government to be high levels of urban poverty; a vicious cycle of reflective in their willingness to decentralize and poor service-delivery that affects user’ willingness the establishment of new municipal financing to pay; the impact of land-use policies; the provisions in the new constitution (World-Bank, insufficient transfer of national revenues to local 2017). However, there is a lack of reflectiveness of level. the realities of the macroeconomic urban development processes. Revenues are highly The municipal financing system has significant dependent on sales, especially of real estate, which centrality from both the indegree and out degree are not a reliable or sustainable source of financing angle. Shortcomings in the municipal financing (World-Bank, 2017). system affect most subsystems including economy and livelihoods; infrastructure, planning and Municipal finances lack resourcefulness. This has ecosystems; and health and basic needs. been visible in their high dependency on a few financing options. However, it should be noted that The municipal finance system is affected by the such limitations are also exasperated by legal and political environment particularly by a institutional, financial and capacity constraints lack of clarity of responsibilities between the local which also translates into a lack of redundancy and central governments. The economic scenario planning in the system. Local authorities are also affects the ability to collect taxes. unable to consider the financing of service infrastructure expansion that is reflective of a Municipal financing in turn affects the growth of growing urban population as there are more the economy, society and livelihoods. Failure of pressing issues of retaining personnel and general economic systems has a ripple effect on social maintenance. (Muchadenyika, 2018). capital.

Whilst local authorities are supported by a wider Policy, regulation and land-use planning decisions number of institutions, including professional that allow development of unplanned townships networks, community groups, and resident take a toll on municipal finances as it is difficulty associations, legal provisions for participation in to collect user fees in these areas. On the other municipal finances lack inclusiveness to the local hand, these areas require funding for new people in Zimbabwe. A good number of local infrastructure and services. people are left out in Council financial processes. The new constitution should be the starting point in (Chatiza, 2010) improving municipal finances through devolving

206 responsibilities and integrating regulation, policy towards more sustainable sources of finance and departments. There is a need to diversify (World-Bank, 2017). However, this will require funding sources including the informal economy, local authorities to improve their engagement with property taxes etc. and also to improve collection various stakeholders including the business efficiency. community and the general population, and policies to stimulate or maintain business activity It is agreed that the description of the local and/or employment at the local level. Another government system of Zimbabwe in the new option would be to engage strategic partners in National Constitution (2013) is a positive Public Private Partnerships, an arrangement which development which has boosted optimism in the has been observed to be a cheaper option of potential for growth and improvement within improving infrastructure in the towns (Mazorodze Zimbabwe local government. Due to the new et al., 2011). Grants from the government and its Constitution and the poor state of service delivery agencies should be directed towards financing in Zimbabwe’s local governments which is largely local authorities’ capital budget needs. attributed to lack of autonomy; local government (Muchadenyika, 2018) reforms should be premised on changing center- local relations (Davidson and Mwakasonda, 2004) There is an urgent need on the part of all stakeholders and the Government of Zimbabwe to There is a need to harness efforts by the various harmonise policies and strategies vis-à-vis the stakeholders towards the revamping of the urban informal economy (Tibaijuka, 2005). Moreover, local government system and the improvement of there is a need to address low skill levels in local the quality of life of the heterogeneous citizenry authorities. City leaders should be familiar with (Makunde, 2018).The study recommends a various possible municipal finance instruments in delegation of regulatory and policy responsibilities, order increase the likelihood that these tools are as well as appropriate resources, from national implemented successfully (UN-Habitat, 2017). government to local authorities. Legislation needs to be reformulated to effectively articulate the There should be continuous engagement amongst offering of devolution right through to the the various actors in the Local Government to community as enshrined in the new constitution come up with all-inclusive and participatory policy (Marongwe, 2011) initiatives which will be sustainable and inclusive of the vulnerable (Chatiza, 2010). To ensure the sustainability of local finances, local authorities need to develop strategies to improve collection efficiency on fees and tariffs and move

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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 % of user charges collected Ruwa Karoi Kariba Gokwe Gweru Rusape Lupane Harare Mvurwi Norton Mutare Redcliff Chiredzi Kadoma Bindura KweKwe Hwange Chipinge Gwanda Chegutu Epworth Chirundu Plumtree Chinhoyi Shurugwi Masvingo Bulawayo Beitbridge Zvishavane Marondera Chitungwiza Victoria Falls Urban Council

Figure 76: Efficiency of collection of user charges on municipal services (Source: SLB, 2015)

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Information and Data and the Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate, started a Service Level Benchmarking (SLB) project to develop data collection Resilience Goal: Up-to-date, transparent and instruments to monitor and improve service robust data is available and used to inform every delivery in the urban water and sanitation sector. aspect of decision-making and service-delivery in To achieve this, the government partnered by the the city, including concerning potential shocks and World Bank Water and Sanitation Program and the stressors that may affect the performance of the Urban Councils Association of Zimbabwe urban system. Information is widely available to (UCAZ). Thereafter, a participatory approach was the range of public and private stakeholders that used by the partners to develop and agree on target contribute to city-performance. benchmarks to guide the sector between 2013 to 2018. A peer review system was introduced which While there have been steps taken to improve data required the development of processes and and information availability, there are issues procedures to guide benchmarking and ensure that relating to reliable and consistent data collection the process could transition from central to local and dissipation at an urban level. government. Sixteen key SLB documents relating The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency to property stock, water, sewage, solid waste, (ZIMSTAT) is the main source for official billing and financial management are mandated to statistical statements in Zimbabwe. It is a semi- be maintained in an SLB file as a portfolio of autonomous agency under the Ministry of Macro- evidence that will be reviewed by peer reviewers. Economic Planning and Investment Promotion It is updated annually, and copies sent to the created by the Census and Statistics Act (CAP Ministry of Local Government, National Housing 10:29) of 2007 (Author, Date) ZIMSTAT aligns its and Public Works and the Urban Councils actions with the UN - Fundamental Principles of Association of Zimbabwe. (GoZ, 2019) Official Statistics and the AU - African Charter on Although the formal processes are in place, the Statistics. ZIMSTAT conducts the national ability of the system to maintain these processes is censuses and surveys, yet other ministries and erratic. In terms of information quantity, data is institutions produce administrative data and a available on the smaller, urban district, scale for variety of other essential statistics. (UK Home infrastructure, yet localized data relating to the Office, 2019) The Zimbabwe National Statistics environment and economy is insufficient although Agency operates field offices in provincial national/provincial data exists. Similarly, there is administrations headed at Bulawayo, Harare, national climate hazard data available, yet there is Mutare, Bindura, Marondera, Chinhoyi, Masvingo, no evidence of data being available at a local Hwange, Gwanda, Gweru. The Central Census authority level. The inconsistency in levels of data Office (CCO), has its headquarters in Harare. and the infrequency of updates make effective (ZimVAC, August 2019) utilization difficult. Furthermore, the quality of While documented accountability guidelines for data that is collected is questionable. In the SLB’s the system are in place, disaggregation of each year, self-reported reliability scores for most information at an urban level has been an issue, benchmarks are consistently very poor, and many both in terms of data use and collection. (ICED, of the values reported are unnaturally high or low, 2017). To mitigate this, in 2012, the Government which further affects the surveys credibility and of Zimbabwe (GoZ), through the Ministry of Local relevance. Several organizations, including British Government, Public Works and National Housing research firm BMI, contend that ZIMSTAT’s

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decision to compile and report inflation quoting delivery particularly in the water, sanitation and prices in hard currency terms may also distort hygiene (WASH) sector. Greater investment in figures. Local research firms, Econometer Global developing the accountability capacity of councils Capital and Equity Axis, have also expressed through availability of quality data could produce doubts about ZIMSTAT’s figures. (Equity Axis, significant improvements in service delivery of 2018). ZIMSTAT has been accused of skewing each urban district (GoZ, 2019) as it enables employment rates, for example by including councils to identify performance gaps and effecting subsistence farmers within the ‘employed’. improvements through the sharing of information and best practices. There have been robust steps taken to improve the quality of information available. However, funding There is the capacity to improve this system and resource challenges severely hamper the through better standardisation and coordination in availability of granular data especially on data collection tools and processes. localized urban scales. To compare the performances of service providers The system shows evidence of robustness through and improving their accountability, standardisation the various initiatives (particularly the SLB is necessary. There is a need to integrate statistics scheme) to improve the availability, accessibility into national policy processes through the and integration of reliable statistics into policy and development of a well-planned and well- decision making. Officials and technical personnel coordinated National Statistical System. (ZimStat, responsible for obtaining data are skilled and 2016-2020). Implementing the National Strategy competent and showed reflectiveness by improving for the Development of Statistics will help their standards of data collection between the streamline work. Increasing the level of both National Strategy for the Development of Statistics Government and development partner support for Part I and the updated Part II. However, officials building capacity to produce and use statistics; and face a shortage of funding and resources, which is ensure that all statistical programmes are consistent crucial to improve or even maintain their data with the NSDS is urgently required (ADB, 2019). particularly on an urban level. There is also a lack Steps need to be taken to enhance the emphasis on of resourcefulness and coordination between line R&D within the current education curricula and ministries involved in providing statistics and data improve the funding of R&D initiatives such as which impacts the overall outcomes of this system. hand held electronic devices, internet-based (UK Home Office, 2019) platforms, mixed modes of data collection, which could make it easier to collect granular data and The system affects several sub-systems in the city maintain it. (ADB, 2019). Political influence on such as infrastructure service delivery and disaster information and communication systems needs to preparedness, which ultimately impacts upon the be restricted to allow better transparency and local economy, livelihoods and municipal accountability into the system. (UK Home Office, financing. 2019). It is important to set clear and realistic Failure to integrate resilience approaches in this targets for universal access to information and system hinders the ability of local governments to data, including access for communities that are anticipate and mitigate risks through every other disadvantaged or isolated within urban regions itself. Government and non-government entities sub-system. Lack of established data collection and would need to collaborate to broaden the analysis hinders sustainable development, trust in leadership, and impacts upon the quality of service distribution of statistics through e-services that are currently available. (ADB, 2019).

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Disaster Management and Risk Reduction The regulatory environment and institutional Resilience Goal: The city is able to reduce, or settings that assign responsibilities for disaster risk avoid, the potential disaster risk from hazards, management are relatively clear (Betera, 2011) and assure prompt and appropriate assistance to victims evolving – at least in theory – towards an approach of disaster, and achieve rapid and effective which focuses on broader risk reduction (DRR) recovery. and climate change adaptation (National Level Consultations, 2019) (UNDP, 2017) (GoZ and Zimbabwean cities have disaster risk management UNDP, 2017); (GoZ, 2015a). The need is systems which emphasise civil protection yet have recognized to transform the civil protection system not developed comprehensive urban resilience and at urban level into a broader, more comprehensive, climate change adaptation approaches. system that anticipates the effects of climate change and works to reduce risks of disasters, in While the hazard profile of the country is lower addition to ensuring a prompt and effective when compared to that of neighbouring countries response to shocks. In 2014, the National Climate (INFORM, 2019), the vulnerability of people, their Change Response Strategy was adopted with a material assets, and livelihood generation in urban framework to strengthen climate and disaster risk areas intersects to create high risks of disasters. management policies (GoZ, 2014). At the National This is compounded by the observed and projected Adaptation Plan (NAP) workshop on climate changes in climate (UNDP, 2017) (GoZ and UN, change adaptation in urban areas, held in 2017 2012) (Betera, 2011). Recognizing the levels of under the auspices of the MLGPWNH and risks, the Civil Protection Act was enacted in 1989, organized by the UNDP, this need was reiterated which instituted the Department of Civil Protection and the political will reinstated (GoZ and UNDP, (DCP). The DCP is responsible for disaster 2017), with areas for action identified. However, preparedness and response and is currently the process remains extremely slow and is attached to the Ministry of Local Government, considered incipient (ICED, 2017) (GoZ and Public Works and National Housing (MLGPWNH) UNDP, 2017) (UNDP, 2017). (GoZ, 2015) (GoZ, 2015a). Services are decentralised through different tiers at Provincial LAs have a limited capacity to perform the core and District levels. At the urban level, the Disaster disaster management and response tasks, despite Risk Management Bill (GoZ, 2011) established recognized strengths. Local authorities mandated Local Authority Disaster Risk Management units to have a fire and ambulance section reached a responsible for the overall coordination of disaster reasonable coverage of 80% by 2015 (GoZ, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, 2015a). However, the LAs access to autonomous recovery and rehabilitation efforts in the local financial, human and equipment resources to authority, including with development partners. prevent and respond to disasters in urban areas According to the Habitat III report (GoZ, 2015) remain insufficient for delivering emergency when a disaster occurs at urban authority level, the services (UNDP, 2017) (GoZ and UNDP, 2017) council is responsible for disaster response. Local (GoZ, 2015a). Moreover, at a local level the DCP’s authorities’ budgets are separate from central operational budget is “very low and not sufficient Government budget as they are composed of local to meet DRM obligations (GoZ, 2015a). The revenue. When the magnitude exceeds the urban National Civil Protection Fund is an important council’s capacities, the urban council submits instrument for disaster risk response financing, requests for assistance through the DCP. given the limited budget allocated to DCP, but remains largely insufficient. (GoZ, 2015). LAs also

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consider the response rate of national authorities to resilience approach is needed, and will require a be slow, in the case of large disasters (ICED, set of tools and methods, to understand risks and 2017). The absence of reserved funds at the build resilience into municipal governance and provincial and district level places “pressure on the urban programming. This will include up Civil Protection Fund” and delays in budget reliableand current city-level hazard mapping data allocations further limits the DCP’s ability to and risk-assessments, which will inform land-use perform its role in urban areas (GoZ, 2015) planning. Moreover, downscaled climate change assessments, at least at district level or for larger There are strengths built within the current system cities are required and included in municipal that have enabled response in several instances; but governance; city-resilience and DRM strategies ( there is no evidence of tools at a local level to (GoZ and UNDP, 2017) UN-Habitat in understand risks and plan for long-term resilience consultations, 2019; UNDP in consultations, building. 2019). At present, at national level the Reactions to Cyclone Dineo (2017), and varied Meteorological Services Department (MSD) oversees the generation and sharing of information cholera health emergency services, show that this on climatic hazards and on the expected changes of sub-system has strengths, despite the challenges. Respondents to studies conducted after Cyclone climate, and there is a wealth of information in Dineo (Mhlanga, et al., 2019) underlined that Civil Zimbabwe that can be used at local level. Protection Units were crucial in-service delivery. However, the URSA found no evidence of these tools and methods being available in LAs in Articles concerning cholera outbreak management Zimbabwe, even though their importance was in Zimbabwe point to the useful role of civil protection in urban areas as a stepping stone. recognized in the NAP workshops (GoZ & UNDP, Ultimately, “the availability of inbuilt structures 2017 and 2018) among others. for coordination including the Civil Protection Overall, the regulatory and institutional Committee at all levels of the system, chaired by environment is clear, and a process to build the local government ministry” is considered a comprehensive resilience planning at urban level strength, although the overall macro-economic has been initiated. However, this process is slow context would challenge the ability of actors to and yet to result in substantial change at local respond to the outbreak at the time (Chimusoro et level. Whilst there are success-stories in al. 2018), as mentioned in the second point in this responding to disasters, there is a dire need for section. Overtime, improvements in rapid response reinforced capacities (human, financial, technical to cholera were made in terms of processes, skills and technological), and the establishment of a and tools, reflecting the investments made in this toolkit and methodology, to ultimately improve the area (Chimusoro, 2018), namely under the Global ability of LAs to prepare and respond to disasters Fund and the Health Development Fund managed at urban level, including by better understanding by (UNDP, 2016). For example, cholera response the risks. now involves “skilled rapid response teams” (RRTs), and can rely on vastly improved health The documented strengths of DRM and civil information and technology systems. This protection leadership for the urban resilience progress, despite financial challenges, should be agenda show some robustness of the system, which underlined. can be leveraged. However, objective financial and operational challenges severely hamper the ability Nevertheless, a shift from emergency response to a of LA to deliver core emergency services when more comprehensive DRR, climate and disaster facing disturbances, and tools and methods are

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still to be adopted for LAs to be able to anticipate DCP is mandated to support all municipal sectors and accommodate change in urban areas to deal with all nature of emergencies (GoZ, 2015). However, a lack of macro-economic and micro- Most of the local authorities have limited economic support reduces the capacity for the DCP capacities to support the city in maintaining levels to directly support municipalities at all stages of of performance if faced by covariate shocks and the disaster cycle. more discrete events. LAs are not yet fully equipped and fit to proactively improve the Failure to fulfil this mandate, and integrate resilience of urban areas, particularly through resilience approaches in the governance, planning, anticipating the effects of climate change. On the and budgeting at local level, results in a cascade of one hand, the system shows some degree of effects across all other systems, including services reflectiveness by the level of urban and national (e.g. water, sanitation, energy); infrastructure and engagement in the NAP and Sendai processes and eco-systems (trunk, utilities, environment) and also post-disaster learning events (GoZ and UNDP, in the local economy. 2017) UNISDR 2011); (UN, 2019); Nevertheless, this reflection has not translated into direct changes There is the opportunity to leverage and expand on in the policies of municipal governance. The lack the existing processes and ultimately implement the of city-specific tools for understanding risk and priorities identified by NAP and Habitat III. informing municipal decision-making limits the A range of actions have been identified by ability of the system to reflect, learn and transform development agencies and the Government to to changes induced by climate change and the improve disaster management and risk reduction increasing vulnerability of people in urban areas systems in Zimbabwe’s urban areas, including The system seems to be geared towards the • In consultations (2019) the United Nations response to droughts, so far (GoZ, 2015). Recent Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai, underline underlined their intention to establish CityRAP the inability of the DRM and response services to (City Resilience Action Plans) with several effectively coordinate interventions (Author, Date). local authorities in the country. CityRAP was However, there is also need to ensure that this initiated by UN-Habitat in Southern Africa in system is able to mitigate a multitude of shocks 2015 and provides an effective framework for and stressors that may plausibly affect the different small to medium cities in understanding urban areas, which requires an integrated approach. resilience and planning contextualized action. The lack of the robustness and redundancy of the This programme would support towns or local system is primarily due to the limited technical and boards in Zimbabawe, in systematizing their technological resources available to support the approaches to disaster management. DRM and DRR strategies • In larger and more sophisticated urban This system is interlinked and interdependent with systems, such as Harare and Bulawayo, several sub-systems in the city: its current expected approaches such as those underlined in Arup’s performance is adversely affected by Municipal City Resilience Framework should be utilized Finance, and in turn shortcomings in its • Policies are clear on the need to focus on performance in the event of major disasters are Community Based Disaster Risk Management likely to adversely affect Health & Basic Needs and involve communities. Particularly in the service delivery, i.e. the provision of water and current context (refer to the analysis in Chapter energy 5), the involvement of communities would

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multiply ten-fold the effectiveness of action in this area. The DCP has produced a DRM Resource Book (2017) for awareness purposes. • It will be critical to involve all sectors for a truly integrated long-term vulnerability reduction and resilience building action, awareness raising and educational programs are key methods which can be used to achieve this. • Actions recommended, and already captured in policies and workshop proceedings (Consultations, 2019) GoZ, 2019; NAP, 2017; UNISDR, 2014) include three main areas: 1) development in the capacity and capabilities of municipal units with the responsibility for DRM, climate change and resilience building; 2) Improve understanding of local shocks and stressors through risk mapping in order to initiate a risk-sensitive form of urban planning which includes disaster resilient land use regulations and building and construction standards. 3) Reinforcing the Early Warning Systems (EWS) and, in general, the operational capacities to deal with emergencies at urban level. All development partners have a proactive role to play in this area, especially UNDP and UN-Habitat who have both the tools and the mandate to strengthen the resilience of this system

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Interdependency Analysis • The local economy, both formal and informal has the highest level of centrality to the functioning of urban There are strong interdependencies across systems. urban sub-systems that are causing a ‘cascade • Municipal finance has also a very high of failures’, rendering sectoral interventions less level of centrality across all dimensions. effective and unsustainable. There is a need to • Livelihoods is very connected to basic focus on highly central sub-systems that affect services and social capital, safety & other sub-systems- Local economy, municipal security and returns recurrently across finance, policy and public works needs most of the other systems improving due to other urban systems relying on • Trunk infrastructure is highly connected these to be resilient. Equally urban systems that and directly influences other highly are influenced by most other systems need to be connected systems, particularly local supported, these include water, health, energy, economy livelihoods and environment. This could form • Policy and land-use planning is also the basis of integrated planning in urban areas shown to have high levels of outdegree, of Zimbabwe. across all systems

The analysis of interdependencies is done at Sub-systems observed to possess high level of whole network map and the urban systems’ centrality by outdegree, meaning they rely focused map. The analysis of the whole network significant on other urban systems include: map identifies the most central systems, while the urban systems’ focused map analyses the • Water & sanitation is highly central for findings in a greater level of detail. The whole the populations health and wellbeing, network map highlights the key urban systems and is likely to be affected negatively by that have a high centrality in terms of their cascades of failure in other systems; dependence on other systems and their support • Health is likewise directly connected to to other systems which is network analysis is basic service systems and shows terms27 as outdegree centrality and indegree primary focus levels of centrality respectively. interconnectedness. • Energy is found to be affected Currently in urban areas of Zimbabwe the high negatively by failures in several degree of centrality of a number poorly systems. performing critical sub-systems has a • Environment & eco-system is highly multiplying endangering effects; while affected by failures or under- opportunities exist to enable broader systems’ performance in other systems. strengthening to build resilience. Specifically, the urban sub-systems found to have high levels of centrality by indegree influence on other systems are:

27 Outdegree measures the number of outgoing connections for an element. In general, elements with connections for an element. In general, elements with high indegree are the leaders, looked to by others as a high outdegree can reach a high number of elements source of advice, expertise, or information. Source: and spark the flow of information across a network. www.kumu.io. Indegree measures the number of incoming

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Figure 77: Water-focussed urban systems interdependency

• Livelihood is highly central also for its conflicting political and governance system in level of out degree (and indegree), being place to regulate them. positively or negatively affected by the performance of several other systems. Cascading failure in the water system has been observed to trigger high consequences effects: More specific analysis of sub-systems network Water shortages had a direct impact on the map reveals further interconnection from the health/hygiene systems within of Harare, where point of view of specific systems. residents were forced to self-supply from unclean and rapidly depleting groundwater Centrality of Water sources and outdoor defecation increased as Water systems in urban areas are highly central, toilets were closed. An outcome of this trend as highlighted in Figure 7: Water-focussed was the September 2018 Cholera outbreak in urban systems interdependency. Water systems Harare’s poorer suburbs. In addition, a more are currently directly correlated to the indirect impact of water scarcity is felt in local performance of the municipal finance system. economic systems, in sectors of the economy Investment challenges impact upon the quality, which rely on consistent water supply, or on an accessibility and infrastructure of water system. individual level when the working day can be The availability of drinking water that is safe is disrupted or shortened by long journeys to also impacted by mal-practices observed in access clean water sources. sanitation and hygiene sub-systems; as well as environmental performance in urban areas. This Opportunities: To ensure improvements in the is particularly evident in dry areas of the water system of Zimbabwe’s cities, a series of lowveldt, where cities such as Lupane and wider improvements should be considered. Bulawyo consistently rely on non-perennial Primarily, there is a need to improve the level of water bodies that are disrupted in periods of drought and hot weather. The resilience of water systems is also adversely impacted by the

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Figure 78: Municipal finance focused urban systems interdependency funding for trunk infrastructure supporting the management of local authorities and the central water systems in Zimbabwe. As well as this, government who devolve funds. decisive effort by the government to improve the governance structures of the water system with The cascading failure caused by weak municipal respect to clarifying responsibilities and finance is described earlier in this chapters (most tightening regulations. urban systems). The status of decentralization has resulted in a situation where municipalities Ultimately, water is a key source of multiple are responsible for water and sanitation, failure in cities of Zimbabwe, making it one of housing, energy and public works but lack the the most important systems to improve and resources to run them effectively. include as an outcome if any urban intervention. Opportunities: Integrated approach and Centrality of Municipal Finance Potential Outcomes. In order to improve the Municipal Finance is also highly central: The condition of municipal finances in Zimbabwe, resilience of municipal financial systems in there is a need for strong policy leadership on Zimbabwe is determined by a range of both the national and local level. The central interconnected issues. A strong and stable local government needs to build on the urban economy which generates consistently institutionalisation of local government within well-paid livelihood opportunities for residents the 2013 Constitution. A legal framework needs is a key determining factor as the municipal to be implemented and enforced which formally finance system is supported by sales and fees designates the roles and responsibilities of the paid by those with the capacity to do so. The various authorities. Within local municipalities, inconsistency of such sales and inability to key actors must be able to tighten regulations regulate resident fee payments across around fees to ensure a consistent income Zimbabwe’s urban areas is a key reason behind stream. Moreover, participatory and transparent their weak municipal finance systems. A budgeting procedures will unlock the secondary factor hampering the resilience of interconnected relationship between citizen municipal finance systems is the fractured participation and municipal finances needs relationship between the leadership and strengthening.

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Opportunities: Ultimately, a well-functioning The cascading failure from weak local and resilient municipal finance system if economies and livelihoods are seen through supported will initiate a positive effect across continued dominance of the informal economy the inter-related systems in urban Zimbabwe within urban centres, which further affects a like water systems, sanitation and public works. range of other systems. The illegality and In the long term, a strong infrastructural system economic insecurity of workers in the informal is needed to support the local economy and sector often means they cannot pay the attract diverse industries supported by ICT. rates/taxes which contribute to municipal finance revenue. This has ensured an under- Centrality of livelihoods and local funded municipal finance system which in turn economy is unable to support the development of the public works infrastructure. In addition, the Note: Livelihoods and Local Economies. (both irregularity of income within the informal sector formal and informal) are intrinsically has made it difficult for individuals to save and interconnected, and therefore have been invest in their own food security, and in the long considered together here. While livelihoods and term in accessing formal housing. local economy in urban areas performs better or worse considering wider macro-economic Furthermore, informal employees are not conditions nationally and globally, for this afforded social security benefits and often work analysis, we have focussed our analysis on the in scenarios where health and safety regulations urban systems within the limits and control of do not exist. This places various stresses on the urban local authorities. health, social welfare, and safety and security systems. From a health system perspective, informal workers are often admitted to hospital These sub-systems are highly central. The with water-borne diseases. The security of resilience of livelihoods and the local economy informal workers will continue to be at risk in Zimbabwean urban areas is affected by given the increased saturation and partisan several, interrelated factors. One of the main nature of the sector, which pushes workers into reason for the general lack of resilience is the illegality and harms social capital. On a weak public works infrastructure system. The secondary level, irregular and long hours development of stable businesses has been workers spend in the informal employment negatively affected by a constrained access to decreases their civic participation, and their resources- like poor energy supply and transport likelihood of playing an impactful role in the network across the country which is often leadership and management of urban spaces. worsened in periods of environmental and ecological shock. The resilience of the local economy is affected by the same factors. Poor infrastructure restricts the ability of local economies to diversify and therefore build resilience to market fluctuations. Moreover, the low levels of cash income, compounded by restrictions on foreign currency, has also resulted in a situation where traders and workers lack the adequate cash to purchase goods for retail. Ultimately, this has resulted in a situation where the economy continues to be dominated by a growing informal sector.

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Figure 80: Livelihoods focused urban systems interdependency

Figure 79: Local economy focused urban systems interdependency

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Opportunities: Several actions could be taken myriad of benefits for several city-wide systems. to develop more resilient livelihoods in Centrally, it would increase the ability of Zimbabwe’s urban areas. On a bottom up level, municipal financers to collect rates/taxes from workers should be supported to develop co- the local population to invest in the health, operative and collective approaches to combat education and public works systems which could their vulnerability. For example, the social in turn help diversify local economies. security schemes (“kufusha mari”) should Moreover, communities would have the capital proliferate across the economy, as they can to invest in improved housing and WASH directly improve the resilience of workers in systems. Formalising the informal economy to myriad ways. Another method for workers to an extent would increase the security of urban mitigate the stresses of irregular income has centres and instigate a process of social proven to be their investment in small-scale integration which would restore civic pride and agricultural production within their urban area- participation and encourage urban leadership however this needs to be regulated. Top-down and management from individuals across diverse actions could also be taken to improve the communities. In the long term, this would resilience of livelihoods in Zimbabwean cities. increase foreign direct investment. Authorities should consider decriminalising aspects of the informal economy and therefore Centrality of Ecosystems and opening the possibility for greater regulation of environment employers. This would integrate the formal and Ecosystem services and environment is central informal economies within urban spaces, as well to the functioning of several other sub-systems, as promoting social cohesion and civic and is equally influenced – positively and participation of informal economy leaders. negatively by their performance. The resilience Although an amnesty on household debts would of Zimbabwe’s environment and ecosystems is be costly, it would be a decisively positive step affected by many of the other sub-systems this in improving social capital. Overall, improving study has focused on. A common lack of

Figure 81: Environment and ecosystems focused urban systems interdependency the resilience of urban livelihoods and income electricity due to weak public works generation in Zimbabwe would result in a infrastructure has people relying on alternative

220 sources of energy primarily petroleum and especially increasing pollution. As well as wood. This plays a key role in the annual improving regulations, policy leaders should destruction of 100,000-150,000 hectares of develop educational programs which build forest in Zimbabwe. Moreover, changing urban awareness and ultimately change behaviours of form of rapidly expanding cities has resulted in individual groups and communities in regard to over reliance on fuel for private modes of protecting the environment. transport. Finally, the lack of focus on ecosystems and the environment within the Enhancing and ensuring the resilience of leadership, policy, and regulatory systems has Zimbabwe’s ecosystems and environment is had negative effects, especially in regard to necessary for better and sustainable functioning conservation of ecosystem services. of several of the sub-systems of this study. Effective management of the environment Cascading effect of environmental failures is would enable local economies to prosper and also observed in urban areas- mismanagement of generate stable income streams which improved diverse ecosystems and environment has the livelihoods of urban residents and increased affected a range of other systems where local their contribution to municipal finances. Tighter economies, and consequentially livelihoods, are environmental regulations and protections centred on three key sectors which are affected would reduce the levels of pollution, improve by the environment: agriculture, mining and waste management, and ultimately the health of tourism. Moreover, the hot weather and populations. Finally, effective utilization of droughts that are characteristic of some of Zimbabwe’s environment could incentivize the Zimbabwe’s regions, particularly in the lowveldt provision of reliable energy sources to local region, affects the resilience of its water systems populations, a key aspect of public works both in terms of reducing and contaminating infrastructure. resources. Centrality of energy Opportunities: Immediate steps on a range of The resilience of the energy systems within levels could be implemented to protect the long- Zimbabwe’s urban centres is affected by a range term sustainability of Zimbabwe’s ecosystem of interconnected subsystems discussed in this services and environment. On a national level, study. Energy resilience is directly impacted by political leadership is needed to commit to the ecology and environmental system. For policies which reflect section 73 of the 2013 example, when a natural energy source such Constitution. Government should work closely wood and/or coal is plentiful within the vicinity with the legislature to develop, and enforce, a of an urban area; it is more likely to be energy tight regulatory framework which clearly sets resilient. Nevertheless, although this only out environmental laws which restricts human guarantees short term resilience due to the finite damage to the ecosystem and environment. nature of the resource. The resilience of the Moreover, policy makers should take a proactive energy system is also affected by the level of approach to ecosystem enhancement, for economic strength, reflected primarily in the example initiating a large-scale tree-planting extent of the municipal finances, which fund the scheme to combat the high-rate of deforestation construction and repairs of the energy network. or dedicating funding towards R&D of renewable energy projects, and in the long term The resilience and type of the energy system incentivize the transition to such sources. affects a range of subsystems. Several of the urban systems rely on energy to function. For Attention is needed in urban areas. It should example, consistently reliable energy is essential work closely with local and municipal bodies to for functioning water pumping stations and combat the potential damage to ecosystems and the environment caused by urbanization,

221 treatment plants, as well as waste collection (ZERA) which could also make the bold services. decision of reviewing tariff rates on the promise of improved service. The system of prepaid The cascading impact of failures in energy tariffs should continue to be rolled out. systems are described earlier in this chapter. As Alternatively, the market could be opened up to well as being affected by the local economy, foreign direct investment from external energy also affects the form of the local independent power providers. On a localised economy: it is required for commercial mining, level, municipal leader should focus on and within businesses which rely on using improving energy infrastructure within newly information and data on ICT systems or developed regional areas of cities. To combat industrial equipment. Moreover, health systems the demand for fuel, local authorities should rely on energy in order to maintain hospital focus on establishing city wide public transport machinery. systems which drive down the need for personal modes of transport. Over a longer period, the Opportunities: This report makes several government should focus on increasing recommendations to improve the resilience and alternative, renewable, forms of energy. In long-term sustainability of Zimbabwe’s energy sector. In the short term, government particular, the authorities should continue to investment is should maintain and replace support the advent of solar power, initially ageing power plants to mirror the successful through funding small-scale localised pilot projects like microgrids with the aim to integrate upgrade of Kariba South. To improve the it with the and scale it up. Developing the efficiency of the system, the two key agencies – Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and the resilience of the energy systems in Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and would initiate a positive ripple effect across several other sectors of society. It would Distribution Company (ZETDC) should co- improve the reliability of the WASH system operate closely under the stewardship of the generally, which would have a positive knock Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority on effect on the health of Zimbabwean city

Figure 82: Energy focused urban systems interdependency

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residents. It would improve the efficiency of the indicated the direct impact that Zimbabwe’s economy in several dimensions. On an linear trunk infrastructure has on the energy and individual level, time could be spent at work water systems. As well as this, the transport rather than collecting energy resources/fuel. For infrastructure of the country is vitally important businesses, efficiency would improve if energy to a range of other sub-systems. In particular, was reliable. Reliable energy could also, in the urban residents and commercial operators rely long term, enable the diversification of the on strong connections to rural areas to ensure economy, for example by supporting growth their food security, whilst many individuals rely within the Information and Technology sector. on imported goods for their business or to support house building. Centrality of trunk Infrastructure. The resilience of Zimbabwe’s linear trunk Opportunities: In order to enhance the infrastructure is affected by a multitude of the resilience of the linear trunk infrastructure of key systems highlighted within this study. Zimbabwe, it is essential that greater co- Policy, regulatory and land use planning operation occurs between the national systems directly impacts upon the development government and local government. Clear of a resilient linear trunk system, given the demarcation of responsibilities is required, with responsibility of design is shared between the funding allocated appropriately along these national government, local city government and lines. Substantial funding should also be parastal agencies. The policies of the reserved for maintenance issues, in order to government vis a vis linear trunk infrastructure avoid recurring cyclical failures. Governments is dependent on the status of the economy, should take decisive steps to attract FDI to reflected by tax revenue, on both an urban and improve their infrastructure yet ensure that this national scale. The linear trunk infrastructure is investment is socially responsible and does not also impacted on by variations to the ecosystem contribute to increasing societal divides by and environment, especially during periods of leaving poorer communities disconnected. extreme weather. This chapter has already Substantial investment should be made to

Figure 83: Trunk infrastructure focused urban systems interdependency

223 diversify trunk infrastructure by improving the interconnectivity can create both, sources of railways system to connect urban centres, which failure as well as opportunities to develop could reduce the reliance on road networks. The holistic interventions. This includes: form of this investment could follow the plan set by the Africa Development Bank earlier this • Due to lack of robustness and design for year (2019), which suggested a restructure of the safe failure, there is high likelihood / industry. Strengthening Zimbabwe’s linear trunk high impact from cascade of failures in infrastructure will have clear tangible impacts in urban systems. many sectors of society as mentioned above. It • There is high strategic value of would benefit the energy sector, water systems investing in multiple urban systems to and help the diversification of economies. In the improve mechanisms of safe failure. longer term, building rural-urban, rural-rural, This can create multiplier effects in and urban-urban connections through trunk spatial or socio-economic targeting as infrastructure would increase social capital, well as ensure that impacts are sustained decrease regional divides and help unify the over time and do not fall back into nation. Relevance for building resilience failed states. • Building resilience will be conditional There is a high interconnectivity and to integrated28 investments in a critical interdependency that causes cascade of failures mass of urban systems (or sectors) as in urban areas of Zimbabwe. The high well as at critical spatial scales in cities.

28 The extent of integration that is viable will depend on the available capacity of implementing partners.

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5. Detailed Findings

Key findings The study concludes with eight (8) key overall findings and related sub-findings presented in

this section. The URSA defined urban resilience as the ability of urban systems & dwellers to respond, recover, Finding 1. Foundations are in place to support the maintain or rapidly return to acceptable development of resilience in the 32 urban areas. performance levels in the face of disturbances and These lay on the articulated regulatory and further adapt and to transform systems when institutional environment, and particularly a strong needed. It analysed the resilience of the 32 areas legacy of urban planning skills and knowledge and officially designated as Urban Councils, management. Moreover, although landlocked, categorised as Cities, Municipalities, Towns and human settlements are located on strategic axes in Local Boards, based on their size and Southern Africa within a relatively unchallenging administrative roles. terrain, and rich in natural resources over and It then analysed the existing circumstances of under the crust. These factors – and the current urban areas in the country through a high-level willingness of institutions and stakeholders to review of the macro-economic, political, engage in urban programming – provides a good institutional and regulatory context in which Urban foundation for future urban resilience Councils are administered; as well as the improvements. environmental and climatic characteristics and the socio-economic trends observed in these urban areas, e.g. informality and inequality, gender and a. Zimbabwe’s current political transition and youth. parallel reengagement with the international community is set to attract FDI and restore The study then reviewed observed and potential confidence in the economy as mentioned, inter disturbances that may affect the 32 urban councils alia, by the Joint Need Assessment conducted at different levels and established a profile of by the United Nations, the World Bank and the natural, human and system-induced shocks and African Development Bank in 2019. The stressors levels. Using existing climate change outcome of the transition is still unknown, and projections, it also identified potential changes in far from secured. However, there is evidence the natural hazard profile for the future. of policy reform, with several successes, that should be considered to provide a good The URSA then analysed the degree of sensitivity potential for building resilience. of urban systems and sub-systems to shocks and stressors; as well as the dynamic qualities that b. The role of decentralised governance at the enable them to adapt and transform when exposed urban level has been mandated by the to sudden or chronic disturbances. This was done Constitution of 2013. An institutional through an established framework of four (4) key framework composed of urban acts, policies dimensions and twenty-four (24) sub-systems. It and regulations, such as the RTPA and the also reviewed interdependencies across sub- UCA exist, and policies are being designed systems. which supplement these acts and initiate reform. Institutionally, the MLGNHPW is committed to improving urban resilience; and

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local authorities have confirmed their interest environmental features. The ‘mineralisation’ in engaging with processes of urban resilience, of urban processes is well documented and has through consultation or methods such as the led to the growth and demise of several NAP. The UCAZ provides a framework to monoindustrial urban centres including enable greater liaison between national and Bindura and Shurugwi, which are especially local governance. susceptible to economic shocks and the variability of commodity prices. However, this c. Decentralization processes are mandated by could be still seen as a strength and the Constitution, backed by national opportunity if managed sustainably and with authorities, welcomed by international resilience principle. Several urban councils, partners, and supported by policies. This particularly Victoria Falls but also Mutare and strengthens the process, although it is yet to Mavsingo. are in areas of outstanding natural materialise in practices, and there are beauty, with environmental tourism supporting significant political, institutional and financial the growth of their economies. challenges. g. Zimbabwe’s educational system is supported d. Urban areas of Zimbabwe are still, to a large by a strong institutional and bureaucratic extent, defined by colonial era planning framework and is one of the strongest in the principles. Although outdated, urban region. The growth of educational centres in typologies maintain a distinct planned ‘University towns’ such as Chinhoyi has character and potential for urban infill, enabled diversification of local economies and densification and improvement if needed. In improved knowledge sharing. The addition, advanced urban planning skills and governments launch of the TVET programme knowledge are made available by Zimbabwe’s demonstrates their continued commitment to universities and technical institutions as well pioneering educational policy and should be as returning professionals from international supported by INGOs. institutions and colleges. h. The urban population of Zimbabwe have e. Zimbabwe is a landlocked country also located employed a range of coping strategies achieve on the strategic North-South and East-West a degree of resilience. The growth of urban axes in Southern Africa, with a comparatively agriculture to 5% of national agricultural unchallenging terrain. Urban councils located output is a remarkable achievement, yet the along these axes, such as Mutare, Mavsingo, deregulation of this system should be Beitbridge and Harare have a comparative addressed to reduce risks present within the spatial advantage that may play in their favour system. The economic strength of in the long-term, given the necessary Zimbabwe’s diaspora, and particularly the investments. This untapped potential could be growing prevalence of remittances, has addressed in the short to mid-term through strengthened urban resilience, especially of utilisation of GIS to analyse the strengths and smaller towns such as Beitbridge, Gwanda and potential of the territory and format a national Plumtree, yet should not be relied upon as a strategic spatial plan which establishes long-term strategy. corridors linking urban-rural settlements, ultimately encouraging positive economic and i. A range of organisations (including the United infrastructural developments. Nations, bilateral and multilateral donors, development banks, INGOs and NGOs) are f. The country possesses a wealth of natural willing to engage in urban programming. resources over and under the crust, as well as Resilience has been bolstered through the significant biodiversity and varied successful interventions by such groups. For

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example, the partnership of UNDP and WFP willingness of the private sector to as part of the Lean Season Assistance invest, a trend that is encapsulated Programme has improved the food security of in the continued operational 19,000 people in the peri-urban areas of dormancy of 30 licensed energy Epworth and Harare. Although interventions generators. can be sectoral and fragmented and could be better integrated from the urban resilience b. Although the processes of perspective, there are examples of good governance and regulation are practice, for example the WFPs School articulated and anchored in the Feeding programme. Strong cross-sector Constitution, they lack the relationships, exemplified by the co-operation flexibility to function effectively between UNICEF and the MLAWCRR in in the current highly volatile producing a Joint Sector Review into 14 economic and political context. WASH Systems, should be encouraged Moreover, political polarisation further; affects citizens participation in local governance, and hampers Finding 2. Unresolved tensions and a range of national to local level cooperation. challenges have eroded the ability of urban Primary research has revealed a systems to perform to standards benchmarked, distinct lack of trust between and desired by city-practitioners. Several issues citizens and local authorities in concerning people’s wellbeing and health and urban areas, Harare, mostly driven safety are triggered by a weak macro-economic by the challenges in service- system and general political instability and further delivery, yet there are positive exacerbated by social exclusion and the impacts of exceptions where raised service climate change. The impact is particularly high on levels have reinstated confidence vulnerable groups including women, children and and user trust, for instance in youth. A chronic cycle of response, rather than Bindura. Confrontation is also proactive forward-looking planning, characterises common between national and urban systems, ultimately threatening the local authorities, and may be opportunity to enhance resilience within the attributed to financial disagreements, political issues or current context of reform. accountability concerns.

Nevertheless, consultations in a. Macro-economic instability and urban centres such as Hwange and cash scarcity, permeate and Chipinge, revealed the strong influence all instances of the processes in place in place for current urban circumstances in transparent and collaborative Zimbabwe. At least 38% of urban policy-making, although this is an households are considered poor exception to the overall trends. and 40.6% of the urban population Ultimately, the relative successes are food insecure. Local of Bindura, Hwange and Chipinge authorities operate in financial can provide examples of good scarce regimes which struggle to practice which should be fund infrastructural maintenance mimicked in other urban centres. of pay personnel. For example, the

Redcliff Municipality has a salary back log of 13 months. Macro- c. Deficiencies within the information and data economic challenges reduces the collection systems have led to a potential

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underestimation of the urban populations, further vulnerabilities. For example, recorded which also fluctuate due to the frequency of dropout rates from secondary school average circular and temporary migration. This is a key 60%, whilst in the Mutare suburb of Old challenge within the agro-town of Kariba and Sakubva residents collect water from has a direct impact on Kariba’s urban form, unprotected and unregulated streams formed which is characterised by informal from burst pipes. development on environmentally sensitive areas. Across Zimbabwe, particularly on the f. Negative coping strategies and the erosion of outskirts of large and mid-sized urban areas, social capital in urban areas disproportionately informal settlements are ‘mushrooming’ impacts women and young people. As only around and within formally planned centres. 14% women work in paid employment, These overcrowded informal settlements are women, and women-led households, are more chronically underserviced by a range of urban prone to abject poverty. This results in systems. This is highlighted particularly in negative coping strategies for income Epworth, a town where just 7% of houses can generations such as transactional sex - 34.8% access electricity, and class sizes average 70- of adolescent girls have engaged in 100 pupils. transactional sex for monetary gain. Youth, a considerable demographic section of d. Informality and inequality also characterises Zimbabwe particularly in urban areas) are the economic, social and policy dealings in exposed to multiple challenges including Zimbabwe’s urban spaces. Although estimates estrangement from decision-making and vary, it is accepted that over 80% of the labour limited absorption within the economy upon force is employed within the informal graduation. Ultimately, research within the economy. The informal economy is generally major urban centres of Harare, Bulawayo, characterized by its partisan political climate, Mutare and Chitungwiza has highlighted that low wages, poor working conditions, and little youths increasingly turn to petty crime as a or no social security and representation. form of livelihood. Given the specific and Although ISALs and systems such as burial vulnerabilities of these groups, it is vital that societies and “kufusha mari” exist, in the main all future interventions specially target them. the informality of Zimbabwe’s ultimately An example of successful targeting is reduces resilience capacity and increases highlighted in Mbare, where a voluntary youth vulnerability. To improve economic and social association was organised to help with waste equality, swift actions should be taken to disposal, and eventually became a key decriminalize and integrate the economy, and franchise within the Clean City Africa scheme. promote community level savings and insurance schemes which reflect existing g. There are significant trends of environmental successes. degradation in Zimbabwe. This is particularly clear in larger cities, especially Harare and e. The vulnerability of people in most urban surrounding satellite areas of Chitungwiza, areas is increasing steadily. Multi-dimensional Epworth and Ruwa, yet also within poverty in urban areas is growing at a faster traditionally untouched landscapes such as rate than in rural areas, forcing households to Victoria Falls. Environmental degradation resort to negative short-term coping occurs due to a multitude of factors including: mechanisms and mid-term adaptation and land degradation from industrial and coping strategies to access critical services, residential use, land-use change from urban generate income, and meet basic expenditure sprawling, and eco-system service depletion requirements. This, in the mid to long-term, from over-exploitation and pollution. erodes urban sub-systems and generates Satellite-image reading for Chitungwiza from

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2003 and 2019 shows the progressive triggered landslides in 2019 in Chimanimani encroachment of housing across wetlands, damaged transport infrastructure and destroyed whilst in Hopley (South-West Harare) residential assets. In addition, droughts have informal settlements are built across ecological intensified, particularly in western Zimbabwe. sensitive areas. This has a negative impact on water and energy supplies, for example, a severe drought h. Climate change has a considerable effect on in 2019 resulted in the Kariba Dam generating urban areas. There has been an increase in less than a third of its capacity at points, which intensity of storms with associated high winds in turn increases food insecurity and floods and resulting landslides. Rain

Finding 3. All 32 human settlements studied are may increase in severity by mid-century across exposed to an array of potential shocks & stresses. the country; ‘High’ levels of human or system They share a high-risk level profile that is, mostly, generated shocks are observed, particularly vulnerability-driven. This is due to the high economic shocks across all urban councils. In sensitivity across socio-economic, ecological, the URSA, it was decided to treat economic instability as a chronic stress. However, infrastructure and service delivery conditions. economic instability recurrently peaks Economic shocks have the highest and most exceeding critical thresholds, for instance in recurrent impact on households; as well as the the case of sudden cash shortage. These effect of accumulated stresses related to sub- stochastic events result in sudden shocks that standard service-delivery. Climate change is threaten households, as captured by the expected to continue compounding risks. ZimVAC 2019. Information & Data availability and accuracy, however, remains an issue, which should be b. Stress’ profile include human, system and addressed in order to plan effectively. climate-induced stressors: all system and

a. The current shocks’ profile includes both human and climate-induced hazards, with potential for rapid and slow onset disasters. Droughts levels are higher the southern dry belt where cities like Bulawayo, Plumtree, Gwanda are located. However, direct and indirect of droughts may affect all urban areas, given their effects on water availability and food security. Strong-Winds, associated with storms and cyclonic events, medium and high levels across the country; floods are also prominent in areas like Chitungwiza, Chipinge, Victoria Falls, Beitbridge; and rain- triggered landslides may affect hilly areas, such as Mutare, Chipinge and Chiredzi, which are also most exposed to strong-winds from the Indian Ocean, along with Mavsingo, Rusape and Beitbridge. Wildfire levels is considered high across the country. Droughts, strong winds and floods are observed to be compounded by climate change already and

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Figure 84: Estimated risk levels calculated against shocks and stressors levels, and observed sensitivity in the 32 urban areas (Source: Authors, 2019)

human induced stressors are medium to high in four key dimensions, the exposure of people in the current context, especially economic urban areas, and the observed shock and stress instability, gender inequality and profile (Refer to Annexes for details on the unemployment. Energy (and fuel) issues are Method). reported to be high in average in all urban areas. Malpractices such as corruption were d. Vulnerability levels are medium to high across mentioned anecdotally, but this report did not all urban councils: data, however, may mask have the capacity to ascertain the accuracy of way higher levels of vulnerability, and should information: an average medium level is be cross-referenced with user’ experience and assumed. Climate or environment-related review through consultations. URSA cross- stressors include medium to high levels in referenced information from literature and environmental degradation induced by land- consultation with data available across socio- use change and deterioration of eco-system economic; infrastructure and services; and services; average increase of temperatures and where possible environmental and governance erratic rainfall patterns have been observed to data. For the URSA Service Level have an effect on water sources and food Benchmark data was used at the request of the production; MNLGPWNH, along with ZimStat data where possible, i.e. Census 2012; and c. High risks of adverse impact for people and different ZimStat report from 2014 to 2018. It assets in all 32 urban councils result from the should be noted that the authors were provided intersection of this shocks/stressors profile, with data up to 2015 only. Apparent and vulnerabilities assessed qualitatively and inconsistencies between data and findings against available data. Climate change from national consultations, local workshops, projections are likely to increase hazard levels and reviewed literature may be explained as well as stressors incidence. This will result in three main ways: a) possible in high recurrence of droughts, high-winds and issues with the reliability of data; b) methods floods; as well as further challenges in water of analysis by URSA; c) misleading availability and food security. The interaction interpretation of data; Firstly, there may be an between sensitivity across indicators for the issue with the reliability of data reported,

230 which has been noted also by the SLB Peer with the high reliability score for the indicator. Review Coordinating Committee (2016). The This in benchmarking terms placed Harare at Committee recognises that there is a diversity low sensitivity. However, this measures in confidence across data collected that system capacity and does not account for varies across indicators and across urban actual use of water at household level in the councils. For example, at least up to City, which appears to be much lower. This 2015, Water indicators such partly explains the disconnect between as Maintenance Coverage Ratio for water perception and reality. In other cases, high supply had a reliability score of 4 out 4 (4 benchmarking levels, may in effect result in being least the reliable) in most urban liability when analysing the interdependent councils, except for instance in Gokwe and cascade of failures provoked by sub-systems Norton where it scored 1. Continuity of Water failing. In the case of coverage of sanitation Supply has also a very low confidence ratio systems, the indicators that reflect the across all urban councils (i.e. 4) except for percentage of properties connected to the Gweru and KweKwe, where this scored sewage systems score highly across several 1. This is also true for Waste Water urban councils, with the notable exception of Management indicators where the Extent of Epworth, Gokwe and Plumtree. But in some Recycling of reuse of sewage has very low cities, e.g Gweru, Bulawayo and to some reliability scores, except in Victoria Falls. In extent Harare, the high connectivity to general, reliability across indicators in larger sewage also turns into potential liability when cities tended to score higher, i.e. Harare analysing the wastewater treatment, which and Bulawayo. However, satellites urban in turn scores very low. This means that high councils of Harare (e.g. Epworth and volumes of non-treated water flow back into Chitungwiza) scored low reliability across rivers, dams, and underground. There are also several indicators. Interestingly reliability cases, for instance in Education, where scores changed between years of reporting, but quantitative data shows a disconnect from the not always improving. Secondly, the perception of highly performing educational methodology for analysing data adopted by the system and actual benchmarks. Literacy levels URSA used mostly benchmarking are very high in all urban councils: However, processes derived from the SLB (Refer to educational attainment rates at primary, Annexes). Findings reflect self-reporting on secondary and tertiary levels are extremely desired performance. This may result in a low. disconnect between user experience reported through consultations, interviews, and assessed In terms of loss & damages, their high level by the literature; and the data contained in the can be attributed to the increasing exposure of SLB. Thirdly, interpretation of data may lead people in unplanned and unsafe locations, to inaccurate or misleading environmental degradation, as well as the considerations. For instance, adequacy of stresses generated by and within the urban water supply measures the supply of water per- systems, as discussed in Chapter 3 and 4. capita, which records the amount of water Disaster impacts in Zimbabwe, as well as supplied in the water system divided by the system-generated stresses, have documented population served by that system, as reported disproportionate effects on women, children in the SLB. This does not measure whether and individuals living with disabilities. Studies each household is actually receiving that in displacements areas after Cyclone impacts amount of water. In the data supplied for the revealed that women and girls were highly URSA no direct indicator for actual water exposed to verbal and sexual abuse; children consumption was provided. Harare reported in and orphans are also very vulnerable in these 2015 the supply of 520 litres per capita/day, contexts.

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Finding 4. The overall analysis of the Zimbabwe shocks and stresses. Coping strategies are Urban Resilience Framework shows that urban short-midterm focused and ultimately increase systems governed by most urban councils are vulnerability. Cross-sector technical support operating below desired resilience performance and innovation is required to build long term and there are areas of strengths and weaknesses resilience. that enable or hamper urban resilience. There are opportunities to enhance resilience, but e. In Dimension 2, Economy & Livelihood vulnerability of people should be addressed as a Zimbabwean livelihoods and local economies priority in the current context. are primarily based on informality, restricting resilience to a large degree. Young people and women increasingly fall through gaps in the a. The URSA analysis, illustrated in Figure 2 and ‘safety net’ of social capital. Although based on interviews, national and local level remittances and circular migration have proved consultations, review of data and literature, effective short-term resilience strategies, the and global references, shows common findings livelihoods of Zimbabwe’s urban population as concerns strengths and weaknesses in urban are increasingly long term economic stressors resilience. These are rooted in the medium to and potential shocks which would have high vulnerability to shocks and stressors in detrimental effects for a range of urban most urban centres, and the resort to some systems. Key actors should focus on resilience behaviours as explained in Finding ‘formalising the informal’ and establishing 5. coherent and realistic LED plans which

involve young people. Close co-operation b. Key foundational strengths for resilience in between Zimbabwean authorities and INGOs Zimbabwe can be found in some enabling is required. subsystems for city-functioning, such as local

governance policy and regulatory mechanisms, f. Dimension 3: Infrastructure, eco-systems & urban planning capacities, skills and the urban form. Zimbabwe’s infrastructure and competencies, backed by current willingness urban form is unfit to support the development to engage in the urban resilience agenda at and resilience of modern urban systems, national and local level; especially during periods of shock.

Zimbabwe’s unprotected environment and c. Areas of weakness observed involve ecosystem increases the risk of hazards. malfunctioning of subsystems that are highly Although progress in the ICT industry has disruptive for city functioning and people been impressive, this has not been reflected in health & wellbeing. These include most social other sectors, despite a well-trained technical services that have negative impact on people, workforce. Continued lack of investment in including water and sanitation, solid waste infrastructural and environment systems has management, energy and food security; as well grave implications for all dimensions of this as livelihood and local economics; study. Government need to find creative ways environment and eco-systems; and municipal to fund infrastructure, possibly through finance; attracting FDI or opening up the sector to d. In Dimension 1, Health & Basic Needs, URSA private/INGO investment. noticed underperformance across all basic

needs systems, which are central to urban g. Dimension 4: Governance and Participation. resilience and highly interdependent. Key A legislative framework (2013 Constitution) is issues around supply and demand have in place to enable effective governance of increased the sensitivity of this dimension to urban centres. Political action needs to be

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taken to ensure this is realised and of financial resources and weak information supplementary acts and regulations are also and data systems continue to hamper proactive updated. It is essential that the long standing planning. Information and data gathering disconnect between political parties and should be improved, through mechanisms national and local systems is resolved through similar such as the SLB. Knowledge sharing co-operation and effective devolution. increase on several levels. Local authorities Citizens feel ‘left behind’ in urban areas, and should interact to spread understanding about immediate steps should be taken to improve examples of good practice. Moreover, closer participation in decision making processes. co-operation between government and expert Stakeholders have demonstrated a creditable INGO agencies is required. desire to improve DRM processes, yet a lack

Figure 85 Illustration of overall findings scored by specialists, national and local consultations and data review

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Finding 5. In the current context, there is some sources, contamination of shallow aquifers, level of resilience of urban systems in Zimbabwe. and increased prevalence of water-borne This, however, are observed to rely on dynamic diseases risks. For short term income qualities that help short-term absorption of shocks generation, negative coping strategies, such as and stressors but are unsustainable and harmful transactional sex and crime are observed in urban areas of Zimbabwe, but this erodes overtime. This is observed across all four (4) dignity and increases health risks. There are, dimensions of the URSA Zimbabwe Urban however, positive strategies that may be Resilience Framework and applies to most urban beneficial overtime. This includes the upsurge areas. Some abilities to absorb and adapt are of digital money services to supplement cash- observed, but there are limited transformational shortages, which allow people to purchase capacities goods and services that can serve the local a. There is currently limited observed robustness economy. Initiatives within the informal and redundancy in critical systems in most economy also demonstrate resourcefulness. urban areas. Resilient cities use robustness and There is a need to leverage on the redundancy in systems such as infrastructure entrepreneurship and positive aspects of and services to ensure functionality and resourcefulness and flexibility, while curbing business continuity despite the negative those strategies that harm people and urban impacts of sudden disasters or chronic systems when protracted. stressors. These resilience qualities prevent catastrophic failure within the systems by c. The URSA observed levels of reflectiveness in enabling ‘safe failure’. In urban area of the way LAs, the National Government and Zimbabwe, it is vital that, overtime robustness stakeholders in cities are attempting to learn and redundancy is built in all critical from past and current circumstances. Resilient subsystems that are currently affecting cities use these behaviours to learn and plan people’s health, livelihood and wellbeing, and ahead in order to adapt and transform when specifically: water, sanitation, energy, required. In general, there is a high sense of infrastructure. ‘what good should look like’ that provides reference for urban practitioners. There are b. Currently, given the high sensitivity observed, promising initiatives such as the Service Level the shortcomings in service-delivery and Benchmarks (SLB); the digitisation of stifled macro and local economy, households grievance processes, like in Bulawayo; the use and urban dwellers are resorting extensively to of the ‘Look & Learn’ peer-learning process resourcefulness and flexibility to absorb shocks across Las and the existence and quality of and stressors. In resilient cities, these are Academia. Processes such as the NAP or the considered natural behaviours used to cope evolution of DRM at urban level also suggest with disturbances in the short-term. In urban reflectiveness. However, a number processes areas of Zimbabwe, the URSA found the are also failing to show tangible outcomes to overuse of these qualities, at the expense of support adaptation and transformation of urban social capital, labour rights, safety, health and systems. All consultations and literature human dignity. Ultimately this affects the very agreed on that by-laws and policies are being functioning of the urban system. For example, articulated but are still unfit to accommodate to accessing water and sanitation, households change, for instance to facilitate informal are seldom resorting to digging boreholes and economy or rethink urban design for building latrines on urban stands, which sustainability and resilience. There are also provide for immediate needs. Over the mid- significant gaps in data – for instance for risk- term, and at the observed scale, this is sensitive land-use planning. There is a need to resulting in massive depletion of groundwater start with the development of city-level urban

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resilience plans, informed by data and Finding 6. The URSA concludes that to undertake academic research and implementation of integrated action with sustained impact in urban actions already identified in Habitat III, NAP areas that build resilience, programmes should and other processes. Overtime, there will be a include interventions on a critical mass of need to review and reform urban acts, policies subsystems that have both high levels of indegree and by-laws to increase the adaptation and outdegree centrality. This will ensure that capacities and support structural vulnerability-reduction programmes achieve transformation. beneficial impact for people, and that LA’s

capacities in urban resilience are strengthened. d. Inclusiveness and integration in urban systems are not sufficiently observed by the URSA. These qualities are observed in resilient cities a. The whole map of interdependency (Refer to because they enhance coordination and Chapter 4) shows primary, secondary and coherence and bring together perspectives tertiary levels of interconnectedness across from all urban dwellers, including from the multiple subsystems. There is need to prioritise most vulnerable groups. Citizens participation those subsystems that are highly central in governance, land-use planning, because they either enable urban resilience or environmental stewardship is promoted by are critical to protect people. These are policies. There are residents’ associations and summarized and should be the base to start in some cities there is an effort to involve urban resilience programming. Overtime, informal sector and vulnerable groups in given financial capacities and results, the focus decision-making. However, there is little could be broadened to include more evidence of effective mechanisms for subsystems. integrating different views in planning, local economic development, and decision-making. b. Working on the following subsystems with Youth, in particular are seen to be estranged high level of indegree centrality will result in from engagement; and exclusion of informal high spill over and multiple benefits across settlers and the most vulnerable groups from other urban subsystems and enhance the decision-making. Integration of regulations capacities of LAs to build urban authorities. and coordination across sectors could also be Hence, interventions in below subsystems stronger, for instance, in urban development should be included in any urban programme to control and environmental planning. There is have sustained impact on urban resilience: need to engage in inclusive urban governance that proactively seeks the participation of - Local economy development interventions Youth, the informal economy, the private (LEDs) (formal and/or informal), as they have sector, women and children; and facilitates the the highest level of centrality to the cross-sectoral integration of policies and functioning of other urban sub-systems and regulations. income-generation; - Municipal finance strengthening; interventions (process, tools etc.) given its high level of centrality across and influence across all dimensions; this should be particularly integrated with LED activities; - Equally, all actions should integrate components of livelihood and income- generation activity, as they are highly

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interconnected to basic services and social - Environment & eco-systems is highly affected capital, safety & security. by failures or under-performance in other - Interventions should target urban policy and systems. It also has high potential to accrue land-use planning given its high level of risks for people and assets and should indegree across all systems, especially in therefore be prioritized. creating an enabling physical and social - Food security, is both negatively affected by environment for resilience; livelihood and local economy and strongly - Governance and participation is foundational affects people health and wellbeing. for the functioning of other systems. - If possible, public works interventions should Finding 7. There are commonalities across all be undertaken in the mid to long-term, because urban councils studied by the URSA but data of its direct influence on other highly connected systems, particularly local economy analysis and specialist review suggest possible and service-delivery: however, the URSA clustering based on typologies e.g. population, recognised that this is largely dependent on geographic locations and functions. However, capital investment. confidence on this finding is medium and should be - Energy is essential to enable subsystems to further reviewed at programming stage. function and is currently affecting several sub- systems. It is essential that alternative a. The URSA conducted automated clustering of technology interventions – particular off-grid findings through an algorithm that modeled and hybrid renewable energy solutions –; existing quantitative and semi-quantitative along with capital investments on appropriate data points; as well as specialist review. technology on-grid are mobilized. Findings with the automated model present - Social welfare and protection interventions do low level of confidence and are largely not appear to have high level of centrality from inconclusive. the analysis: however, their role in enhancing absorption capacities and reducing b. Similarities in resilience performances are vulnerabilities is critical – and should be found in urban areas with similar size: prioritized as an enabler in the short to mid- - Largest (<500k) cities (i.e. Harare, term and be activated swiftly in case of shocks. Bulawayo and Mutare) seem to face similar challenges and resilience potential, c. Working on the following subsystems with exemplified by a) greater risks associated high level of outdegree centrality will mitigate, with safety and security; b) higher strain reduce vulnerability of people. Interventions in on infrastructural systems and service- below sub-systems are critical in the current delivery with associated higher risks from context of Zimbabwe and should be catastrophic failures, given the higher prioritized: exposure and density; and c) the scale of growth, population mobility, and organic - Water & sanitation remain central for the expansion of satellite towns poses direct populations’ health and wellbeing, and is one challenges to accurate information and of the most central systems that is likely to be data gathering; and inhibits planning; d) affected negatively by cascades of failure in Socio-economic opportunities are other systems while also generating hazards supported by a broader economic base, but for human health; also by more opportunities for networking, - Health interventions can complement which seems to foster sense of belongings integrated interventions for its interrelation and place-making. with several other basic service systems. - Medium sized cities (100k-500k) tend to score better on Information and Data as

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well as in Social welfare and protection. Food security is the largest issue in this e. Clustering by household type of city. expenditure/remittances ratio (Refer to - Smaller towns (<20k-50k) seem to Chapter 4.) suggests the existence of: demonstrate better performance in some - Low Income / High Risk: in this group, services Health, Food Security and after expenditure households have little or Sanitation and Hygiene. no residual capacity, exposing them to - No significant commonalities are high risks e.g. Beitbridge, Gwanda and illustrated by data in smallest local boards. Plumtree However, data and consultations seem to - High Income / Low Risk: in this group, suggest that local boards and town households have comparatively high councils seem to perform best in income and remittances exceed comparison to larger cities, using expenditure, enabling saving, e.g. Chiredzi resilience performance as a metric. There and Masvingo is low confidence in this sub-finding; - High Income / High Risk: in this group there is a comparatively high income but c. Additional potential cluster includes expenditure exceeds remittances so they municipalities and towns that have a high level have little or no capacity to withstand of dependency on larger cities such as in further shocks or stresses, e.g. Bulawayo, Greater Harare cities (e.g. Epworth, Ruwa, Chitungwiza Chitungwiza); KweKwe, Gweru and Redcliff. They seem to share problems associated with f. Findings by URSA are insufficiently aging infrastructure; challenges in service conclusive in clustering and require further delivery; lower degrees of economic-base analysis to be used for programming. diversity. Consultations seem to support this finding, and the URSA has medium Finding 8. Urban systems are operating at and confidence on it; above the limits of their coping ranges, which are rapidly shrinking. Sudden shocks – for instance the d. Clustering by functions and spatial location impending drought in 2019 – or further stresses shows that: will likely result in high-impact disasters, affecting the most vulnerable people. - urban councils that depend on a narrower economic base have had larger impact of economic shocks, for instance Redcliff. a. URSA consultations informants often referred This is in line with global experiences; to urban systems as ‘broken’ or ‘collapsing’. - Urban areas that are in strategic locations While the extent of the challenges suggest that (e.g. Border towns; crossroads) are able to they are broken, urban systems continue to apply price differentials for trade across function. However, standards are affected, and borders or benefit from strategic locations people’s safety, health and wellbeing such as Mutare or Beitbridge. This sacrificed. The accumulation of stresses also resonates with findings by (ICED, 2017), affects the ability of LAs to deliver services which see border towns attracting and plan populations; b. All urban areas in Zimbabwe, particularly those with high density and concentration of low-income mobile populations, operate within a narrow coping range defined by high vulnerabilities, chronic stressors and

237 c. recurrent high impact shocks. In this context strengthening capacities of LAs to plan for children, and orphans; women; the Youth; resilience; this should be a phased intervention people with disabilities; low-income aiming at: households are dis-proportionately affected. - Reducing vulnerability of households and at-risk groups in cities by reducing d. Those coping ranges are shrinking from the exposure and improving asset and system- combined action of increasing vulnerabilities generated sensitivity (strengthen absorbing and the cumulative effect of stresses on urban capacities). system functioning; in addition, climate - Progressively broaden the coping ranges change is likely to increase hazard levels. This of cities by building robustness and is illustrated in diagram 1. redundancy in the urban system (increase adaptive capacities). - Unlocking the full development potential e. In this context the URSA strongly of cities by expanding the coping range recommends the development and adoption of (build transformative capacities). a roadmap or strategy for action, and the set-up of dedicated funds and policies aiming at reducing and preventing further vulnerability f. It is vital that action is integrated, coordinated of people in most exposed urban areas, with and sustained overtime by multiple particular focus on vulnerable groups; and stakeholders.

Figure 86 Illustration of coping ranges. Source: Authors, 2019

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6. Conclusions and way forward

Urban resilience building is a process, which development agencies and financial requires leadership and commitment at both institutions decide to invest in urban areas national and local level, as well as partnership but fail to adopt a coordinated and for integrated action. integrated approach.

Currently there is an opportunity to initiate C. Urban reform and resilience building. In urban resilience programming at national level, this scenario integrated investments address given the interest of the former MLGNHPW, key factors of vulnerability and provide a LAs and the international community. baseline for urban regeneration by tackling causes of vulnerability in highly This is critical because the URSA foresees three interdependent systems. While critical scenarios: thresholds for urban systems are realistically A. Business As Usual scenario: lack of still reached with covaried shocks, investment in urban areas and integrated especially those induced by droughts, a resilience action furthers vulnerability and reduced stress profile, and progressive ingrains poverty, informality and inequality; reduction of vulnerability mitigate larger stressors generated by the urban systems impact. This is the most desirable scenario: further overburden the functioning of other but will require strong partnership and systems e.g. the failure of the solid waste cooperation; commitment over-time; management system creates further stresses political willingness at national and in the water and health systems. Risks of leadership at local level. All interventions disasters are driven upward by the should focus on addressing inequalities and compounded effects of climate change on ensuring the most vulnerable group are natural hazards and higher likelihood of targeted. violent social unrest in urban areas. This scenario is likely to materialise if stresses Commitment from national and local authorities are not addressed and vulnerability of as well as coordinated support or a range of development partners, public and private sector people reduced. Under this scenario the and civil society will be vital to materialise coping range of cities, and communities, may further shrink. Evidence from the scenario C. URSA seem to indicate willingness to avoid Critical areas for intervention this scenario. In order to materialise scenario C, national B. Sectoral urban development. This scenario and local authorities; development partners involves urban programming and should focus on areas of work that are development that is planned and critical for urban resilience in Zimbabwe. implemented in sectoral silos, with limited The URSA recommends that, in order to effectiveness. Undoubtedly, benefits for obtain the maximum impact on resilience in people are still reached, but they cannot be the current context of Zimbabwe, integrated sustained over time, due to lack of programmes must necessarily include integrated investment in highly activities in several of the following areas: interdependent systems. This is a likely Enabling areas scenario if national, local authorities,

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• Livelihood and income generating activities. • Environment & eco-systems is highly This is highly interconnected to basic affected by failures or under-performance in services and social capital, safety & security other systems. It also has high potential to and a critical element of any intervention accrue risks for people and assets and should therefore be prioritized. • Local economic development (formal or informal), as this area is connected to most • Food security, is both negatively affected by of the other urban sub-systems across all livelihood and local economy and strongly dimensions; affects people. • Municipal finance, including process, tools • Livelihood is also influenced and affected and projects to boost revenues and optimise by several other sub-systems. It has their use. This has a very high level of therefore a very strong centrality, and centrality and influence all dimensions; should the backbone of each intervention • Urban policy and land-use planning, as Any intervention that aim at building urban shortcomings in this area is affecting resilience will need to integrate actions in both environment, housing, basic-service the enabling and vulnerability-reduction areas. delivery, inclusiveness and participation; but the strong background in this area can be a Thematic, spatial and time priorities stepping stone for resilient inclusive urban Resources are limited and working in all the design, service-delivery and participation; above-mentioned areas will be very • Mechanisms to boost citizen participation challenging. Prioritisation should consider: • Energy is essential to enable subsystems to • Areas that are critical or foundational function and is currently affecting several building resilience of people and systems in sub-systems. It is essential that alternative urban areas of in Zimbabwe, i.e.: technology interventions – particular off- livelihoods; water, sanitation and solid- grid and hybrid renewable energy solutions waste-management; energy (on-grid, off- –; along with capital investments on grid, mixed); food-security; environmental appropriate technology on-grid are management; inclusive and participatory mobilized. governance and urban planning – including transport-planning; municipal finance. • Social welfare and protection, while not appearing very central in the analysis, are • Areas of work that will depend on the critical and should be prioritized in the short specific context, or contingent on phases to mid-term, and be activated swiftly in case and capital investment, i.e. LED, legal and of shocks. This is especially important in the policy-reform and large infrastructure. current context given the expected impact of droughts and macro-economic stabilization It is essential that all urban resilience measures on people activities in Zimbabwe embed: Conversely, the URSA recommends that in order to directly tackle the vulnerability of • Youth, i.e. empowerment through civic people in cities of Zimbabwe action is taken participation and economic opportunities (employment, livelihood generation), in several of the following areas: entrepreneurship); Vulnerability-reducing areas • Women socio-economic empowerment and safety; • Water & sanitation, SWM, remain central • Children’ safety, protection and urban child- for the populations’ health and wellbeing, centred-design and is one of the most central systems that is likely to be affected negatively in turn Supporting digital applications will foster generating cascades of failure in other innovation, informal economy and social systems while generating hazards for human health, which is also central; service delivery

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Initiatives will need to be implemented with integrate income-generation, social protection, a phased approach as follows: basic social services & food security, alternative or complementary infrastructure, participation • Immediate (and crisis modification) phase. Given the current context and observed interventions. Focus on city resilience planning vulnerability, urban resilience interventions linking with DRM and humanitarian action as must recognise the need to prioritise needed. Initiate action in most vulnerable areas immediate vulnerability reduction, including in cities. through social protection and cash-for-work interventions. These circumstances may • Focus: prioritise highly central recur in the next years, and practitioners subsystem that have potential impact should be prepared to reactivate it rapidly on people health and safety; Aim to and effectively to help modifying the crisis reduce vulnerability of people, • Short-term phase. This should focus on the household and areas at high-risk of most vulnerable cities and urban areas and negative effects from sudden shocks aim at building a ‘stepping-stone’ for (i.e. droughts) and accumulated stress; communities and local authorities. This and enhance basic abilities of LAs to could be characterised by support in ensure business continuity. alternative technologies, community-driven service-delivery linked to income- generation activities. It is a best practice to • Priorities: a) achieving safe levels of initiate with a city-level City Resilience service delivery standards; b) tackle Action Plan, which help identify priorities negative coping strategies and improve and plan for the short to the long-term safe failure of systems; c) prevent involving many stakeholders. irreversible deterioration of conditions • Mid to long-term phase. This should focus through direct observation of land-use on transitioning from alternative to change; and further environmental appropriate technologies, and would require degradation; d) Ensure a linkage is transitioning to spatial inclusive planning, established with humanitarian on-going investment in light industry and labour- actions, but ensure focus is maintained intensive infrastructure. This phase could be expanded to city-level in larger cities and on long-term resilience planning. municipalities, involve provinces to foster rural-urban linkages and value-chains, and • Integrated activities: Integrate national urban reform interventions in highly central sub- systems, like basic social service

delivery with high levels of indegree More specifically, the URSA recommends three and outdegree (Water, Sanitation, consecutive mutually reinforcing phases as SWM, Energy, Health, Food security); follows and summarised in Table 17. and systems with strong indegree level across the four dimensions of the 1. Immediate to short-term focus for action framework (i.e. planning & (immediate-3 years): build a ‘stepping-stone’ development control) especially with for the most vulnerable people to prevent housing development by cooperatives; major disruption, and LAs to cope with livelihood-generating activities; shocks and stressors. accompanied development of alternative In the immediate to short-term (and then / complementary technologies, social sustained overtime) prioritise actions that have protection). vulnerability reduction co-benefits by reducing exposure and improving asset and system- • Clustering / spatial targeting: Peri- generated sensitivity (absorb). Action should urban areas which serve as gateways to

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the city and harbour most of the system in order to address underlying incoming/outgoing source of temporal causes of system-generate stressors and (interannual & seasonal), spatial (infra increase the capacities of LAs to generate and inter-city) and economic (in and out revenues, support local economic of poverty) mobility; prevent development and implement resilience irreversible land-use change and planning. Possible actions to be integrated deterioration; focus on income- include LED, Municipal governance generating intensive hotspots (CBDs, strengthening & revenue generation, heatmaps also required) in primary, services, appropriate & alternative secondary and tertiary human infrastructure with intensive investments, settlements. Heatmaps of livelihood- participation. Interventions should be at generating hubs in cities integrating city-scale. typology-based or economic-based targeting are needed to plan spatial • Focus: Achieving and consolidating a targeting. higher-ground status. Increase coping ranges of cities by building robustness • Socio-economic targeting: Distinguish in urban systems and addressing system- targeting inequality / informality vs. generated stressors (adapt). poverty; people with disabilities; • Priorities: a) consolidating community- women-led household; Establish an based livelihood generation and service- EWS on coping strategy’; Criteria to delivery; b) addressing gaps and include youth; women, children, people adapting by-laws and urban policies to with disabilities and HIV. build ‘fitness for purpose’; c) Opportunities in local-economic basis • Finance: This is likely to be highly supported through LED-type of subsidised and reliant on external approach with LAs facilitating and partnership and funding; rely on and partnering with informal sector; d) support informal economic development possibly transitional investment in area. labour-intensive sectors and generation of tradeable jobs and products; e) shift • Stakeholders: Public / civil society / to appropriate technology and retrofit of private sector; likely support to require trunk and service infrastructure; f) international technical assistance and Develop City-Resilience approach, finance. integrating DRM

• Challenges: Immediate TA support & • Integrated activities: integrate matching-funding; timescale; interventions in central sub-systems identification of failure mechanisms; expanding to secondary focus, and coordination. address failure mechanisms in policies and municipal governance (by-laws and reform to accommodate informality and 2. Short to medium-term focus for action (3-5 capture value, strengthen national to years): consolidating achievements and local revenue allocation and own broadening coping range. revenue basis, development control) linked with LED-type of interventions; In the short to mid-term, focus on labour intensive service and improving robustness in critical urban sub- service/trunk infrastructure retrofitting

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with appropriate technology as possible. interventions, establishing a national urban Invest in disruptive technology / digital. spatial framework planning that enable rural-urban linkages, strengthened municipal • Clustering / spatial targeting: city-wide governance and finance reform, investment approach, extended to city-level in in robust and redundant infrastructure several UCs. City-wide investments and networks with appropriate technology. operational strategy for primary and Scope should continue to target city-wide secondary human settlements prioritised interventions, but also focus on promoting based on vulnerability and risk. urban-rural development.

• Socio- economic targeting: broader • Focus: Achieving transformative social, spatial and economic strategies capacities vis-à-vis recurrent shocks required. Heatmaps of livelihood- and reduced stressors’ profile. generating hubs in cities integrating Complement robustness with typology-based or economic-based redundancy, inclusiveness and targeting. Bottom-up generation of integration, while reducing sensitivity diversified data beyond service-levels to across all sub-systems capture social and urban dynamics will better service medium to long-term • Priorities: At-scale city-wide resilience strategies. consolidation of the achievements, and all level of focus (primary, secondary, • Finance: Requires national-level tertiary) addressed to prevent cascade of investment and repurposing of failures, further reduce and contain municipal finance, with mid-term shift vulnerability, and unlock economic from ‘service-provision’ of LAs as potential of cities. Implement most of partner and driver of LED. TA, FDI and Habitat III; NAP; JNA and sectoral international finance also required. priorities. Beyond promoting labour Align with JNA 2019. intensive projects, local governments to identify capacities and investment • Stakeholders: Consolidated PPP and opportunities in their urban areas to community participation; support from promote a shift towards the most international technical assistance and productive sectors such as finance. manufacturing and tradeable products, • Challenges: Conditioned by macro- and reindustrialisation of activities economic development, access to within urban areas, relying when finance and political context. Access to possible on existing industrial assets. credit for private sector and improved Integrated activities: integrate fiscal balance condition. Likely ‘life- • saving’ integrated actions continue. interventions at city-level and city- catchment urban/rural level through a 3. Possible long-term focus for action (5-10 fully-fledged national urban spatial years): enhanced coping range with a new framework; urban, municipal consolidated status in cities with sustained governance and finance reform; trunk resilience outcomes infrastructure demand-matched with appropriate technology. In the long-term, invest in the strengthening of urban systems to durably expand their • Clustering / spatial targeting: city-wide coping ability and unlock their economic approach, extended to nation-level in potential. This will require national level all UCs. City-wide investments and

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operational strategy for primary and Way forward secondary human settlements prioritised Given the high vulnerability of people and shock based on vulnerability and risk. and stressors profile, the URSA recommends • Socio-economic targeting: continued urgent and phased action that prioritises key ‘leave no one behind’ approach, but subsystems with high negative impact on wider focus and non-poverty-based people, followed by short, mid and long-term targeting of interventions urban resilience actions, within a ten years horizon. Specifically, it is recommended that: • Finance: international, national and purposeful municipal finance. Requires a. A national level roadmap – or strategy – sizable investment in infrastructure; is adopted by the MLGNHPW with all economic sectors; basic-service LAs, the support of the international delivery; capacity-building and skill community, and cooperation of NGOs, development or attraction sourced likely Civil Society, the Academia and the by FDI, credit, revenues Private Sector. The roadmap must illustrate potential sources of finance. • Stakeholders: International private The roadmap should focus on three sector; national and urban private sector; consecutive and mutually reinforcing National and LA; international financial phases as follows: institutions; citizen-led initiative. b. A dedicated national Zimbabwe Urban • Challenges: Highly dependent on Resilience Fund is established to macro-economic, fiscal balance, and channel funds and implement the capitalisation. Highly linked to ease of national urban resilience roadmap or business and robustness of credit and strategy. fiscal space. Likely ‘life-saving’ c. Development partners coordinate urban integrated action will remain. resilience action: the complexity of the Achievements at this stage may create urban contexts and extent of the pull factors: prepare for urban inflow by challenges require that all resources are anticipating demand. used efficiently. Isolated and fragmented interventions are unlikely to build resilience in urban areas. A Programme Implementation Strategy should be developed and adopted. This will be needed to adapt interventions to different socio-economic targets, different cities and different sectoral priorities. d. The indicators used for the URSA could also be used to establish an urban resilience index that complements the service level benchmarks and support supports urban resilience monitoring in cities of Zimbabwe.

244 ical Note

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Appendix 1: Meta data for systems analysis Dimension 1 : Health and Basic Needs

Food Security

Resilience characteristic Adequate and Nutritious Food Supply Indicator Occurrence of stunting in children under 5 years age Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2.2.2.7 Zimbabwe National Health Profile 2014 Data collection year 2014 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access Zimbabwe National Health Profile • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet (2 data points provided for this indicator) • Extract percentages as related to Data points Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 2.5 3.2 7.5 12.3 26.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database

References *Performance benchmark

Food Security

Resilience characteristic Adequate and Nutritious Food Supply Indicator Occurrence of low weight in children under 5 years age Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2.2,2.7 Zimbabwe National Health Profile 2014 Data collection year 2014 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access Zimbabwe National Health Profile • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet (2 data points provided for this indicator) • Extract percentages as related to Data points Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 1.6 3.5 8.0 14.9 26.4 value

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database

References *Performance benchmark

Affordability of Food

Resilience characteristic Adequate and Nutritious Food Supply Indicator Percentage of expenditure on food as percentage of total household expenditure Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.16 Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology • Access Zimbabwe National Health Profile • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet (2 data points provided for this indicator) • Extract percentages as related to Data points Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 30.1 37.3 39.2 39.5 43.1 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Water

Resilience characteristic Water supply coverage Indicator Percentage of properties with piped water supply Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100 92.2 83.0 75.5 62.6 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Water

Resilience characteristic Water quality Indicator Percentage of properties in city where water meets or exceeds quality standards Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100 97.1 95.0 84.7 14.2 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Water

Resilience characteristic Adequacy of water supply Indicator Per capita supply of water Unit Liters per capita per day Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 150 120 90 60 30 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on equal division of range between min + benchmark. References *Performance benchmark

Water

Resilience characteristic Reliability of water supply Indicator Numbers of hours of pressurised water supply Unit Hours per day Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 24.0 19.2 14.4 9.6 4.8 value

Sanitation and Hygiene

Resilience characteristic Access to sanitation facilities Indicator Percentage of population within 100 m of a functional, improved toilet Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100 98.5 93.5 73.9 37.9 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Sanitation and Hygiene

Resilience characteristic Access to improved sanitation Indicator Percentage of households with access to a flush, blair, or communal type toilet Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.3, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • If province, check the cities that apply to that province ‘Output - Resilience analysis’ sheet in work book • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Total of values for Flush, Blair and Communal types = % of people with access to improved sanitation Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100 93.7 90.8 87.0 51.6 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 5 based on 100% coverage. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Solid Waste Management

Resilience characteristic Access to SWM services Indicator Percentage of properties with kerbside waste collection atleast once a week Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015

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Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100 99.1 92.0 78.4 20.3 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Solid Waste Management

Resilience characteristic Adequacy of SWM services Indicator Percentage of generated waste that is collected by council Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 88.5 74.5 59.9 13.9 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Energy

Resilience characteristic Improved sources of energy for cooking Indicator Percentage of houses using electricity or gas as energy source for cooking Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.3, 2012 Census Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province

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• Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Total of values for Electricity and Gas = % of people with access to reliable sources of energy Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 81.8 73.3 64.6 10.2 value

Energy

Resilience characteristic Access to on-grid electricity Indicator Percentage of houses with access to electricity Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.3, 2012 Census Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Select value for ‘Yes’ on table Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 81.6 78.5 71.1 59.1 value

Health

Resilience characteristic Maternal health facilities Indicator Maternal mortality rate Unit Number Data source Table 7.4, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 81.8 73.3 64.6 10.2 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

Health

Resilience characteristic Children's healthcare access Indicator Infant mortality rate Unit Number Data source Table 7.1(a), 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 3.1 8.4 15.1 31.7 52.1 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

Education

Resilience characteristic Literacy Indicator Adult literacy rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 4.12, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Select value for ‘Total’ on table Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 5 based on 100% coverage. Other benchmarks based on equal distribution References *Performance benchmark

Education

Resilience characteristic Primary education attainment Indicator Primary education completion rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table A4.4, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Province Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Primary’ • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Total’ • Percentage of total in primary from total people in education = % of population that has completed primary Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 98.1 94.7 84.3 66.1 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

Education

Resilience characteristic Secondary education attainment Indicator Secondary education completion rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table A4.4, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Province Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Secondary’ • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Total’ • Percentage of total in secondary from total people in education = % of population that has completed secondary Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 91.6 80.7 63.8 40.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database. References *Performance benchmark

Education

Resilience characteristic Tertiary education attainment Indicator Tertiary education completion rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table A4.4, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Province Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Tertiary’ • Calculate total value of ‘Male’ and ‘Female’ for ‘Total’ • Percentage of total in primary from total people in education = % of population that has completed primary Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 77.8 52.8 32.9 15.3 6.5 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

Housing

Resilience characteristic Home ownership Indicator Homeownership rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.1, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Select value for ‘Owner/Purchaser’ on table

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Housing

Resilience characteristic Affordability of housing Indicator Average housing costs as percentage of total household expenditure Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.16 Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2018 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the total values for the provinces as listed • Data is provided by province so check the cities that apply to the province in the ‘Output - Resilience analysis’ tab in work book Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 10.0 11.0 14.4 17.1 20.8 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Housing

Resilience characteristic Improved typologies of housing Indicator Percentage of houses of mixed, detached, semi-detached, and flat/townhouse types Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.2, 2012 Census

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Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology Access document relevant to city/province Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet Total of values for Traditional, mixed, detached, semi-detached and flat/townhouse = % of people with formal housing Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Dimension 2 : Economy, Society and Livelihoods

Formal and Informal Local Economy

Resilience characteristic Economic Diversity Indicator Employment in the top three economic sectors as percentage of total employment Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 5.18, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Select values of top 3 sectors by total number of people • Calculate total value of top 3 sector values • Percentage of total in top 3 sectors of total people in occupation = Total percentage employment by the top three economic sectors as a percentage of total employment Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 20 35 50 65 80 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: CRI Threshold for 1 and 5 based on CRI data. Other thresholds divided equally References *Performance benchmark

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Formal and Informal Local Economy

Resilience characteristic Inequality Indicator GINI coefficient Unit Number Data source Appendix A.1.2 ZimStat Poverty Atlas 2015 Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access the Poverty Atlas • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the values for the ‘GINI Index’ of the cities Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 28.6 33.7 37.4 41.6 48.9 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

Formal and Informal Local Economy

Resilience characteristic Labour force participation Indicator Labour force participation rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 5.4, 2012 Census Data collection year 2012 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access document relevant to city/province • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Select values of numbers of total employed • Divide number of total employed by the total number of employed and unemployed and express as percentage Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 74.4 66.8 62.1 58.0 47.4 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: World Bank All thresholds based on distribution from World Bank database References *Performance benchmark

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Formal and Informal Local Economy

Resilience characteristic Extent of informal employment Indicator Population employed in the informal sector, as percentage of total employment Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 6.4 ZimStat Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology •

Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 5.3 8.8 11.0 13.6 14.8 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Formal and Informal Local Economy

Resilience characteristic Entrepreneurship support for disadvantaged and vulnerable groups Indicator Percentage of new businesses started with majority female shareholders, in most recent year with data Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 13 Central Business Register Inquiry Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Province Methodology •

Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 5 based on assumption. Other thresholds based on equal division References

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*Performance benchmark

Livelihood and Employment

Resilience characteristic Household consumption Indicator Average annual household expenditure, as percentage of average annual household income Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.16 ZimStat Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the total values for the provinces as listed • Data is provided by province so check the cities that apply to the province in the ‘Output - Resilience analysis’ tab in work book.

Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Livelihood and Employment

Resilience characteristic Household cash income Indicator Annual household income Unit $ Data source Table ZimStat Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access the Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the total values for the urban districts as listed. Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 5699.0 2748.0 2175.0 1925.8 1584.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption . References *Performance benchmark

Livelihood and Employment

Resilience characteristic Prevalence of poverty Indicator Poverty rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Appendix A.1.2 ZimStat Poverty Atlas 2016 Data collection year 2012 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the total values for the provinces as listed • Data is provided by province so check the cities that apply to the province in the ‘Output - Resilience analysis’ tab in work book. Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 5 based on 0%. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Social Welfare and Protection

Resilience characteristic Adequacy of remittance income Indicator Average annual household expenditure as percentage of remittances received Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 8.18 Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Province

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Methodology •

Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 1 and 5 described with dataset. Other thresholds equally divided.

References *Performance benchmark

Dimension 3 : Infrastructure, Planning and Ecosystems

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Adequate maintenance - Water Indicator Percentage of water supply budget utilised for maintenance Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Distribution losses of water Indicator Extent of non-revenue water Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015

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Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Coverage of system - sewerage Indicator Percentage of properties covered by sewerage system Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles References *Performance benchmark

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Efficiency of sewage system Indicator Sewage collection rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council

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Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on percentiles. References *Performance benchmark

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Adequate maintenance - sewage Indicator Sewage system maintenance coverage ratio Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on equal divisions References *Performance benchmark

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Sewage treatment Indicator Sewage treatment capacity Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Recycling of wastewater Indicator Percentage of recycling or reuse of wastewater Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 2, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Adequate maintenance - SWM Indicator Percentage of SWM budget utilised for maintenance Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Sound waste disposal Indicator Percentage of waste at landfill sites disposed scientifically Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Road quality Indicator Average quality rating of roads Unit Rating Data source Annex Table 15,16 Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report 2019 Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data

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Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: ZimStat All benchmarks from source References *Performance benchmark

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Road capacity Indicator Percentage of surfaced roads as proportion of total road length Unit Percentage (%) Data source Annex Table 15,16 Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report 2019 Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: ZimStat Threshold for score 5 from source. Other thresholds calculated equally between 0 and 100 References *Performance benchmark

Public Works Infrastructure

Resilience characteristic Affordability of transport Indicator Annual household expenditure on transportation Unit $ Data source Table 3.16 Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey 2017 Report Data collection year 2017 Scale Province Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 106.0 175.3 244.5 313.8 383.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Information and Communication

Resilience characteristic Internet access Indicator Percentage of households with an internet connection Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.77 Zimstat ICT Household Survey 2014 Data collection year 2014 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Zimstat ICT Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the value for the percentage of households with an internet connection (National level stat so applies to all the cities) Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption Threshold for score 5 from assumptions. Other benchmarks based on equal division of range between min + benchmark. References *Performance benchmark

Information and Communication

Resilience characteristic Mobile phone coverage Indicator Percentage of households where atleast one member has a mobile phone Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.38, 3.40 Zimstat ICT Report 2014 Data collection year 2014 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Zimstat ICT Report

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• Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the value for the percentage of households with an internet connection (National level stat so applies to all the cities) Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Information and Communication

Resilience characteristic Landline phone coverage Indicator Percentage of households with a fixed line telephone Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 3.38, 3.40 Zimstat ICT Report 2014 Data collection year 2014 Scale Province Methodology • Access the Zimstat ICT Report • Go to the designated table as listed on the Excel sheet • Extract the value for the percentage of households with an internet connection (National level stat so applies to all the cities) Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Dimension 4 : Governance and Citizen Participation

Leadership and Management

Resilience characteristic Responsiveness to residents' concerns Indicator Average efficiency in providing satisfactory responses to customer complaints on water supply, SWM, and sewerage

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Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2, 3 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 80.0 65.0 50.0 35.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on equal division of range between assumed min + benchmark. References *Performance benchmark

Citizens Participation

Resilience characteristic Civic engagement Indicator Voter participation rate Unit Percentage (%) Data source 2018 Harmonised Elections Local Authority Results Data collection year 2018 Scale Urban District Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Information and Data

Resilience characteristic Ability to monitor resource consumption Indicator Extent of metered water supply connections Unit Percentage (%)

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Data source Table 1, 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 98.0 85.0 68.0 30.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: Assumption

References *Performance benchmark

Municipal Finance

Resilience characteristic Sufficiency for day-to-day municipal services Indicator Average efficiency in cost recovery on water supply, sewage, and SWM services Unit Percentage (%) Data source Table 1, 2, 3 2016 Service Level Benchmark Peer Review Annual Report Data collection year 2015 Scale Urban Council Methodology • Access table • Input corresponding data Performance benchmarks and thresholds

Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on equal division between min- benchmark References *Performance benchmark

Municipal Finance

Resilience characteristic Efficiency of revenue collection Indicator Average efficiency in collection water supply, SWM, and sewage user charges

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Score 1* 2 3 4 5 Indicator 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 value

Performance benchmarks and thresholds – Sources and methodology Source: SLB Threshold for score 5 from SLB. Other benchmarks based on equal division between 0-100 References *Performance benchmark

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Appendix 2: Natural Hazards Overview

Introduction Note overview This note presents a country-scale desk study of natural hazards/geohazards in Zimbabwe to inform ongoing studies as part of the UNDP Urban Resilience Project in Zimbabwe. Each natural hazard is then qualitatively/semi-quantitatively assessed and scored at the location of 32 urban areas. This assessment will then be included in a matrix-based system which incorporates vulnerability and exposure factors to qualitatively describe risk. This matrix-based system is being developed by Arup International Development and is not included in this note. Aim The aim of this note is to: Identify and describe the range of hazards which could occur within Zimbabwe; Qualitatively/semi-quantitatively describe each natural hazard at the location of 32 urban areas in Zimbabwe. Regional context INFORM (the Index for Risk Management – http://www.inform-index.org/) is a simple semi-quantitative way to understand and measure the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters and the conditions which can lead to them. It can be used at a global, regional or national level to compare natural and man-made hazards and risks and to help develop priorities for disaster risk reduction interventions. Table 1 shows an excerpt from the mid-2018 INFORM data for Zimbabwe, countries which immediately surround Zimbabwe, and for context, Somalia and Singapore, which are at opposite ends of the INFORM overall risk ranking. The INFORM risk ranking indicates that Zimbabwe has Medium levels of natural hazard, Medium levels of human hazard and High vulnerability, leading to an overall INFORM risk classification for Zimbabwe of High. This is lower than Mozambique, however is higher than neighbouring South Africa, Zambia and Botswana. Zimbabwe is ranked 40th out of 191 countries globally, where 1 is the highest overarching risk ranked-country and 191 is the lowest.

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Table 19 – Mid-2018 INFORM risk ranking for Zimbabwe (row shown in bold), countries which immediately surround Zimbabwe, and for context, Somalia and Singapore. Legend shown in table below. Sorted by overall INFORM risk ranking.

ore

e hazard score e hazard of 191, where 1 is 1 where 191, of

Country score hazard Earthquake score Flood hazard score hazard Tsunami cyclon Tropical score hazard Drought sc hazard natural Overall Overall hazard score human Overall hazard and exposure score score vulnerability Overall capacity coping of lack Overall score score risk INFORM Overall category risk INFORM Overall (outRank highestis191 risk lowest) and Somalia 1.5 8.1 6.4 1.2 10 6.8 10 8.9 9.4 9.0 9.1 Very High 1

Mozambiqu 2.8 6.8 5.9 5.3 7.6 5.9 4.4 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.0 High 18 e

Zimbabwe 0.1 6.1 0.0 0.4 9.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.8 5.1 High 40

South 0.5 5.2 2.9 0.4 8.6 4.4 5.4 4.9 3.8 4.3 4.3 Medium 64 Africa

Zambia 1.5 5.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.3 1.8 2.1 5.2 5.8 4.0 Medium 74

Botswana 0.1 4.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 2.7 0.1 1.5 3.5 4.7 2.9 Low 111

Singapore 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.4 Very Low 191

Hazard Vulnerability Lack of coping Overall INFORM risk capacity Very low Very low Very low Very low Low Low Low Low

Medium Medium Medium Medium

High High High High Very High Very High Very High Very High

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Key references This note makes use of the following key datasets to inform the country-scale desk study and qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment of hazards. ThinkHazard! The World Bank have developed an online tool, ThinkHazard!, which provides a general overview of the hazards for a given country which might be considered during project implementation and design to promote disaster and climate resilience. ThinkHazard! provides a qualitative appraisal of the likelihood of a given country, or part of a country, to experience a given natural hazard. These hazard levels are based on published hazard data provided by a range of private, academic and public organizations. Hazard levels are presented at Administrative Level 0, 1 and 2 for Zimbabwe. Table 2 summarises the national-level (Administrative Level 0) ThinkHazard! hazard levels for Zimbabwe.

Table 20 – National-level ThinkHazard! levels for Zimbabwe (levels range from Very Low to High)

Hazard ThinkHazard! hazard level River Flood High Coastal Flood High

Water Scarcity/Drought High Wildfire High

Earthquake Medium

Cyclone Medium Extreme Heat Medium

Coastal Flood Very low Landslide No Data

Tsunami No Data Volcano No Data

NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility

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The Global Landslide Susceptibility Map produced by NASA29 provides a global-scale qualitative assessment of the susceptibility of different terrains to generating landslides based on: the presence of roads; tree coverage; proximity to tectonic faults; a high-level assessment of the bedrock conditions; and slope angle. This dataset provides global-scale 1km spatial resolution coverage and is particularly useful for this project since ThinkHazard! does not contain any data for landslide hazard in Zimbabwe. The Global Seismic Hazard Map The Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHAP)30 presents a global-scale assessment of seismic hazard and is represented in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, which corresponds to a return period of 475 years. GSHAP provides a useful and high-level quantitative check on the hazard levels indicated by ThinkHazard!. Mapping of Selected Hazards Affecting Rural Livelihoods in Zimbabwe Mapping of Selected Hazards Affecting Rural Livelihoods in Zimbabwe: A District and Ward Analysis31 (MOSHARLZ) is a UNDP publication developed with technical assistance from the World Food Programme and published in 2016. MOSHARLZ presents a qualitative appraisal of ten natural and man-made hazards in Zimbabwe. The hazard-specific tabulated or GIS-format qualitative assessments produced as part of MOSHARLZ were not available to this project, although map extracts were included in the .pdf format report. Hazard values from MOSHARLZ reported in this note are approximate only and represent the general trend of each hazard around the specific urban areas, rather than the exact value at the location of the urban area. This helps to represent both the inaccuracies from reading from a .pdf map and the diffuse nature of urban areas in Zimbabwe. The Comprehensive Stocktaking Exercise for the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and the Development of the NAP Document for Zimbabwe This draft copy report32, provided to Arup by email on 23/07/2019, presents draft information used to compile a NAP document for Zimbabwe. UNEP/UNISDR Global Risk Data Platform A key source of information is the UNEP/UNISDR Global Risk Data Platform, which describes the spatial distribution of hazards and risks in Malawi. The UNEP/UNISDR Global Risk Data Platform (http://preview.grid.unep.ch/) is a multi-agency effort to share spatial data information on global risk from natural hazards. It covers tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. The UNEP/UNISDR Global Risk Data Platform was developed as a support to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR).

29 Stanley, T., and Kirschbaum, D. B. (2017) A heuristic approach to global landslide susceptibility mapping, Nat. Hazards, 1–20, doi:10.1007/s11069-017-2757-y. 30 Giardini, D., Grünthal, G., Shedlock, K. M. and Zhang, P. (2003) The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map. In: Lee, W., Kanamori, H., Jennings, P. and Kisslinger, C. (eds.): International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics Series 81 B, Academic Press, Amsterdam, 1233-1239, 2003. 31 UNDP (2016) Mapping of Selected Hazards Affecting Rural Livelihoods in Zimbabwe. Available online: https://www.undp.org/content/dam/zimbabwe/docs/Poverty%20Reduction/UNDP_ZW_POV_Hazard-mapping.pdf [accessed 14/08/2019]. 32 UNDP (undated) The Comprehensive Stocktaking Exercise for the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and the Development of the NAP Document for Zimbabwe.

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UNEP/UNISDR Global Risk Data Platform is used to support the assessment cyclone/wind and wildfire hazard for this project. Readily available satellite imagery Satellite imagery accessed using ArcGIS and provided by ESRI, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN and the GIS User Community can be readily reviewed for each of the 32 urban areas. Because of the high-level nature of this study imagery is only examined at a scale defined by the boundary of each urban area. Imagery reviewed for each of the urban areas is included in Appendix A. Imagery is reviewed overlain atop of a hill-shade generated from a 90m spatial resolution SRTM DEM to emphasize key topographic/geographic features. For this project, each image is reviewed with reference to key indicators of flood and landslide hazard, and qualitatively appraised on a scale of very low, low, medium, high or very high hazard. It should be noted that this is an extremely high-level pass only and will not identify individual landslide or flood hazard features, but rather aims to quickly appraise the terrain based on expert judgement. Shortlisted hazards The following natural hazards will be considered by this project: Flooding (including riverine and surface/urban flooding); Drought; Wildfire; Earthquake; High winds; Extreme heat; and Landslide. Since Zimbabwe is a land-locked country coastal flooding and tsunami hazard is not considered. Theoretically, a seiche (a wave induced in a confined water body such as a lake, most likely due to an earthquake or landslide) could affect one of the water bodies in Zimbabwe, however this is not considered. There are no active volcanoes in Zimbabwe. Volcanic hazard is therefore extremely low and is not considered as part of this report.

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Country-scale overview Flooding Flooding has been officially recorded in Zimbabwe at least once every year for the past 100 years32. Riverine flood hazard levels vary broadly across Zimbabwe according to ThinkHazard! (Figure 3). In areas of highest riverine flood hazard potentially damaging and life-threatening river floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10 years. Flood hazard is highest in parts of western Gwayi, eastern Runde and Save and northern Manyame33. Urban/surface water flooding is classified as very low to low across most of Zimbabwe by ThinkHazard!, however Lupane and Buhera are classified as areas of high urban flood hazard according to ThinkHazard! (Figure 4). This means that potentially damaging and life-threatening urban floods are expected to occur at least once in these areas in the next 10 years. In line with general trends seen elsewhere in the world, Zimbabwe has seen cumulative annual rainfall levels remain relatively steady over the last few decades, however rainfall patterns are shifting towards more seasonal periods of drought and extreme rainfall 34. This brings with it the increased incidence of flash- flooding, which can occur rapidly and hence can be much more dangerous. In March 2019 many parts of eastern Zimbabwe were affected by flooding associated with Cyclone Idai. Drought Droughts are cited as one of the most common hazards in Zimbabwe and can be linked to the El-Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO)32. Furthermore, the Civil Protection Organization of Zimbabwe35 cite drought as the biggest single hazard affecting Zimbabwe. Droughts, much more so than for other hazards such as earthquakes or floods, can be difficult to entangle from their human and physical causes. For example, a meteorological drought might occur when a region receives less rainfall than might be expected for the long-term average, however a socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for water exceeds the supply. A meteorological drought is therefore not a prerequisite for a sociological drought. This means that it’s often logical to consider droughts within the context of both hazards and risks; causes and impacts. Meteorological drought is classified as high across parts of western Zimbabwe, becoming lower to the east according to ThinkHazard! (Figure 5). This means that in the west, meteorological droughts are expected to occur on average once every 5 years and are

33 UNOCHA (2007) Areas prone to flooding in Zimbabwe. Available online: https://reliefweb.int/map/zimbabwe/areas- prone-flooding-zimbabwe (accessed 19/09/2019). 34 UNDP (2016) Mapping of Selected Hazards Affecting Rural Livelihoods in Zimbabwe. Available online: https://www.undp.org/content/dam/zimbabwe/docs/Poverty%20Reduction/UNDP_ZW_POV_Hazard-mapping.pdf [accessed 14/08/2019]. 35 Civil Protection Organization of Zimbabwe (2009) Disaster Risk Management: A resource book for educational institutions in Zimbabwe. Available online: http://www.drmzim.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Disaster-Risk- Management-Resource-Book.pdf (accessed 19/09/2019).

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expected to occur less frequently in the east. Further to this, UNOCHA36 cite high socioeconomic/agricultural drought hazard in parts of northern and southern Zimbabwe. As discussed in Section 2.1, alternating periods of drought and flooding are increasingly likely to occur in Zimbabwe. This brings with it the potential for secondary hazards such as landslides, which are much more likely to occur following periods of drought due to more ready infiltration of water into the ground due to desiccation cracking associated with periods of prolonged drought. Wildfire All of Zimbabwe is classified as having high wildfire hazard according to ThinkHazard! (Figure 6). This means that there is greater than a 50% chance of encountering weather that could support a significant wildfire that is likely to result in both life and property loss in any given year. Fire-related hazards can either be true ‘wild’ fires, in that they originate through natural processes, or can be man-made in origin, resulting typically from negligence, poorly managed slash-and-burn agricultural practices37, arson, or often in parts of the developing world, inadequate or illegal electrical networks. Distinguishing between man-made and wild fires is difficult after-the-fact and many fires are wrongly classified. Earthquake Zimbabwe is located at the southern-most tip of the East African Rift Valley, which dictates most of the seismic activity in East Africa. According to ThinkHazard!, earthquake hazard is generally very low to low across the central part of Zimbabwe, becoming medium to the northwest (over the mid-Zambezi Basin in the Lake Kariba area38) and southeast (in the Deka Fault Zone along the border with Mozambique) (Figure 7). In the areas of medium hazard there is a 10% chance of a potentially-damaging earthquake occurring in the next 50 years. The Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHAP) indicates that this approximately corresponds to a Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) of up to 0.8 m/s2 (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period) (Figure 1).

36 UNOCHA (2007) Drought Prone Areas of Zimbabwe. Available online: https://reliefweb.int/map/zimbabwe/drought- prone-areas-zimbabwe (accessed 19/09/2019). 37 Maponga, R., Ahmed, F. and Manatsa, D. (2017) Determination of Veld Fire Hazard Zones in Multiple Tenure Systems in Zimbabwe: Implications for Intervention. Environment and Ecology Research, 5, 409-421. 38 Mapuranga, V. P. (2014) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Zimbabwe. University of Pretoria. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/25a1/22780f4b0111a338f1a1f05fcbd202522dd5.pdf [accessed 19/08/2019].

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Figure 87 – Global Seismic Hazard Map. Peak Ground Acceleration (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period)

High winds High winds and their associated potential impacts present a unique challenge for classification. This is because some sources present or cite ‘cyclone hazard’, some present ‘tropical storm’ hazard and some may just present ‘wind hazard’. Clearly from the point of view of those at risk, the classification of the event is irrelevant – if the winds are strong enough to cause damage to a roof (or similar) then that’s all that matters. However, the (often incorrectly used) terminology presents challenges for studies such as this. For example, ThinkHazard! cites cyclone hazard as being generally very low to low across most of Zimbabwe (Figure 8), further citing that cyclone hazard rises to medium along the south-eastern coastline with Mozambique, corresponding to just a 10% chance of potentially-damaging cyclonic wind speeds occurring in the next 10 years. How then could this relatively moderate hazard classification be appropriate given that in March 2019,

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many parts of eastern Zimbabwe were affected by flooding and strong winds (60 – 100 km/hr39) associated with Cyclone Idai? Was it that Idai was a remarkably large and unlikely event? Or perhaps that damages and impacts were chiefly associated with flooding rather than wind? To add further to the potential confusion, Idai was actually classified as a tropical storm by the time it reached Zimbabwe, meaning that the impacts of Idai were not strictly speaking caused by a cyclone at all (but rather by Tropical Storm Idai). In contrast to ThinkHazard!, the Zimbabwe Department of Civil Protection40 present a map by the Zimbabwe Meteorological Office which shows most of southern Zimbabwe and parts of northern Zimbabwe as being most affected cyclone prone areas. Regardless, whether classified as a cyclone, tropical storm or just a storm, high winds have the potential to cause damage in Zimbabwe. The qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment presented with this project aims to cut through classification issues to present an overview of potentially damaging wind hazards in Zimbabwe. It should further be noted that wind hazards and the risks they pose to buildings are largely dictated on a site- by-site basis. Local factors such as the relative position of buildings, position of buildings relative to localised topographic features, vegetation etc. all significantly affect the wind speed which could affect a given building. Extreme heat According to ThinkHazard! extreme heat hazard is low to medium across Zimbabwe, with the areas of lower hazard occurring in the central parts of the country (Figure 9). This means that in areas of medium hazard there is more than a 25% chance that at least one period of prolonged exposure to extreme heat, resulting in heat stress, will occur in the next five years. The five warmest days on record in Zimbabwe have occurred since 198741.

39 Annunziato, P. P. A. (2019) Tropical Cyclone Idai: analysis of the wind, rainfall and storm surge impact. European Commission JRC. 40 Betera, L. (2011) Overview of Disaster Risk Management and Vulnerability [in Zimbabwe]. 41 Brazier, A. (2015) Climate Change in Zimbabwe: Facts for Planners and Decision Makers. Available online: https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=6dfce726-fdd1-4f7b-72e7-e6c1ca9c9a95&groupId=252038 [accessed 19/08/2019].

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Technical Note

Figure 88 – ThinkHazard! Riverine Flood Figure 89 – ThinkHazard! Urban Flood Figure 90 – ThinkHazard! Meteorological Figure 91 – ThinkHazard! Wildfire Classification Classification Drought Classification Classification

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Figure 92 – ThinkHazard! Earthquake Figure 93 – ThinkHazard! Cyclone Figure 94 – ThinkHazard! Extreme Heat Classification Classification Classification

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Landslide ThinkHazard! does not currently contain any information on landslide hazard in Zimbabwe. The NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility map indicates low to moderate levels of landslide hazard across most of Zimbabwe (Figure 2). Widespread landsliding occurred in Chimanimani in 2019, triggered by high rainfall associated with Cyclone/Tropical Storm Idai42.

Figure 95 – NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility Map

42 NASA (2019) Floods and Landslides in Chimanimani. Available online: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144739/floods-and-landslides-in-chimanimani (accessed 19/09/2019).

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Qualitative/semi-quantitative hazard assessment Location of urban areas Thirty of the thirty-two urban areas for analysis were indicated in the file zwe_adminboundaries_tabulardata.xlsx by Siddharth Nadkarny (Arup) on 13/08/2019. These were matched to the fields in zwe_admbnda_adm2_zimstat_ocha_20180911.shp, a GIS-format Administrative Level 2 boundaries file downloaded from Humanitarian Data Exchange on 13/08/2019. Two of the urban areas, Lupane and Chirundu do not align with District Boundaries. The location of these two urban areas was identified using readily available imagery and therefore the boundaries for Lupane and Chirundu are approximate. Determination of hazard score The qualitative/semi-quantitative appraisal of hazard for each urban area is done in three steps: Identify hazard levels from existing studies at the location of urban areas. Where appropriate an average and maximum level will be recorded. These are presented in Table 4 – Table 10. Where historic hazard and area specific events or other evidence is available to support the assignment of a hazard score, this will be reported. Other sources include lessons learned from in-country workshops or other local expertise, site-specific studies which can be readily identified, historic hazard events etc. A hazard score will be assigned for each hazard for each urban area based on the references cited herein and expert judgement. Table 3 presents an overview of the hazard scoring system.

Table 21 – Proposed hazard scoring system.

Hazard score Hazard description 1 Very Low 2 Low

3 Medium

4 High 5 Very High

Results (by hazard) The following tables present the interpreted hazard score for each hazard, including the references (and associated scores/values) used to justify the hazard score. Hazard scores used to justify the score proposed by this study correspond to the reference from which they were taken, which is why some do not match the schema proposed in Table 3. Flooding

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Table 4 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative flood hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 22 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative flood hazard scores

Urban Area TH! River TH! Urban MOSHAR Image Flood Flood Flood Flood LZ Analysis - Hazard Hazard Flooding Flood Score Descriptio Hazards n Beitbridge Urban Medium Low High Medium 3 Medium

Bindura Urban Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low Bulawayo Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Chegutu Urban Low Very Low None Medium 2 Low Chinhoyi Very Low Low None Very Low 1 Very Low

Chipinge Urban High Low Low Low 3 Medium

Chiredzi Urban Medium Low Medium Low 3 Medium Chirundu Medium Low None Medium 2 Low

Chitungwiza Low Very Low None Low 2 Low Epworth Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Gokwe South Low Very Low Medium Medium 3 Medium Urban Gwanda Urban Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Gweru Urban Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low Harare Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Hwange Urban Medium Low Low Medium 3 Medium

Kadoma Urban Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Kariba Urban Low Very Low None Medium 3 Medium

Karoi Medium Low None Low 2 Low

Kwekwe Urban Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Lupane High High Low Low 3 Medium

Marondera Urban Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low Masvingo Urban Very Low Low None Medium 2 Low

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Mutare Urban Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Mvurwi Very Low Very Low None Very Low 1 Very Low

Norton Low Very Low None Very Low 2 Low

Plumtree Medium Low None Low 2 Low

Redcliff Low Very Low None Low 2 Low Rusape Very Low Low None Very Low 2 Low

Ruwa Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Shurugwi Town Very Low Very Low None Low 2 Low

Victoria Falls Medium Low Low High 3 Medium

Zvishavane Urban Very Low Low None Low 2 Low

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Drought Table 5 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative drought hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 23 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative drought hazard scores

Urban Area TH! Water MOSHARLZ Drought Hazard Drought Hazard Scarcity Dry Spells Score Description Beitbridge Urban Medium High 4 High

Bindura Urban Very Low Medium 3 Medium Bulawayo Medium Medium High 4 High

Chegutu Urban Very Low Low 2 Low Chinhoyi Very Low None 1 Very Low

Chipinge Urban Medium Medium 3 Medium Chiredzi Urban Medium Medium 3 Medium

Chirundu Very Low NPGR 1 Very Low

Chitungwiza Very Low Medium 2 Low Epworth Very Low Low 2 Low

Gokwe South Low Medium 3 Medium Urban Gwanda Urban Medium High 4 High

Gweru Urban Medium High 4 High Harare Very Low Low 2 Low

Hwange Urban High High 4 High

Kadoma Urban Very Low Medium High 3 Medium

Kariba Urban Low NPGR 2 Low

Karoi Very Low Low 2 Low Kwekwe Urban Low Medium High 3 Medium

Lupane Low Medium High 3 Medium Marondera Urban Very Low Medium 3 Medium

Masvingo Urban Very Low Medium High 3 Medium

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Mutare Urban Very Low Medium 3 Medium

Mvurwi Very Low None 1 Very Low

Norton Very Low Medium 2 Low

Plumtree High High 4 High

Redcliff Low Medium High 3 Medium Rusape Very Low Medium High 3 Medium

Ruwa Very Low Low 2 Low

Shurugwi Town Medium Medium High 4 High

Victoria Falls High High 4 High

Zvishavane Urban Medium Medium 3 Medium

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Wildfire Table 6 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative wildfire hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 24 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative wildfire hazard scores

Urban Area TH! Wildfire UNEP Annual Wildfire Hazard Wildfire Hazard Wildfire Score Description Frequency Beitbridge Urban High 0 3 Medium

Bindura Urban High 0 3 Medium

Bulawayo High 0.3 4 High Chegutu Urban High 0.1 3 Medium

Chinhoyi High 0.2 4 High

Chipinge Urban High 1.2 4 High Chiredzi Urban High 0.2 3 Medium

Chirundu High 0 4 High Chitungwiza High 0.4 4 High

Epworth High 0.3 4 High

Gokwe South High 0 3 Medium Urban

Gwanda Urban High 0 3 Medium Gweru Urban High 0.3 4 High

Harare High 0.5 4 High

Hwange Urban High 0.6 4 High

Kadoma Urban High 0.2 3 Medium

Kariba Urban High 0 3 Medium

Karoi High 1 4 High

Kwekwe Urban High 0.1 3 Medium

Lupane High 0.4 4 High Marondera Urban High 0.8 4 High

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Masvingo Urban High 0 3 Medium

Mutare Urban High 0.2 3 Medium

Mvurwi High 0.3 4 High

Norton High 0.7 4 High

Plumtree High 0.2 3 Medium Redcliff High 0.2 3 Medium

Rusape High 0.2 3 Medium

Ruwa High 0.5 4 High

Shurugwi Town High 0.4 4 High

Victoria Falls High 0.1 3 Medium

Zvishavane Urban High 0 3 Medium

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Earthquake Table 7 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative earthquake hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 25 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative earthquake hazard scores

Urban Area TH! GSHAP GSHAP Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Mean 500- Maximum Hazard Score Hazard year Return 500-year Description Period PGA Return Period PGA Beitbridge Urban Very Low 0.2 0.2 1 Very Low

Bindura Urban Low 0.1 0.1 2 Low Bulawayo Very Low 0.2 0.2 1 Very Low

Chegutu Urban Low 0.1 0.1 2 Low

Chinhoyi Low 0.3 0.3 2 Low Chipinge Urban Medium 0.8 0.8 3 Medium

Chiredzi Urban Medium 0.4 0.4 3 Medium Chirundu Medium 0.7 0.7 3 Medium

Chitungwiza Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low Epworth Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low

Gokwe South Low 0.3 0.3 2 Low Urban Gwanda Urban Very Low 0.4 0.4 1 Very Low

Gweru Urban Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low

Harare Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low

Hwange Urban Medium 0.7 0.7 3 Medium

Kadoma Urban Low 0.1 0.1 2 Low

Kariba Urban Medium NA NA 3 Medium

Karoi Medium 0.6 0.6 3 Medium

Kwekwe Urban Low 0.1 0.1 3 Medium Lupane Low 0.3 0.3 2 Low

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Marondera Urban Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low

Masvingo Urban Very Low 0.3 0.3 1 Very Low

Mutare Urban Medium 0.3 0.4 3 Medium

Mvurwi Low 0.2 0.2 2 Low

Norton Low 0.1 0.1 2 Low Plumtree Low 0.2 0.2 2 Low

Redcliff Low 0.1 0.1 2 Low

Rusape Low 0.2 0.2 2 Low

Ruwa Very Low 0.1 0.1 1 Very Low

Shurugwi Town Very Low 0.1 0.2 1 Very Low

Victoria Falls Medium 0.6 0.6 3 Medium

Zvishavane Urban Very Low 0.3 0.3 1 Very Low

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High winds Table 8 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative high winds hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 26 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative high winds hazard scores

Urban Area TH! UNEP 500- CPS/MO High Winds High Winds Cyclone year Assessment12 Hazard Score Hazard Return Description Period Wind Speed (km/hr) Beitbridge Urban Low 110 Most Affected 4 High Bindura Urban Low 90 Least Affected 2 Low

Bulawayo Low 60 Most Affected 3 Medium Chegutu Urban Low 70 Least Affected 2 Low

Chinhoyi Low 70 Moderately 3 Medium Affected Chipinge Urban Medium 160 Moderately 4 High Affected

Chiredzi Urban Medium 140 Most Affected 4 High Chirundu Low 40 Moderately 1 Very Low Affected

Chitungwiza Low 90 Moderately 3 Medium Affected

Epworth Low 80 Least Affected 2 Low

Gokwe South Low 50 Least Affected 2 Low Urban

Gwanda Urban Low 70 Most Affected 3 Medium

Gweru Urban Low 80 Least Affected 2 Low Harare Low 80 Least Affected 2 Low

Hwange Urban Very Low 20 Least Affected 1 Very Low Kadoma Urban Low 70 Least Affected 2 Low

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Kariba Urban Very Low 40 Moderately 2 Low Affected

Karoi Low 50 Moderately 2 Low Affected

Kwekwe Urban Low 70 Moderately 3 Medium Affected

Lupane Very Low 40 Least Affected 1 Very Low

Marondera Urban Low 100 Moderately 3 Medium Affected Masvingo Urban Low 100 Most Affected 4 High

Mutare Urban Low 140 Most Affected 4 High Mvurwi Low 70 Least Affected 2 Low

Norton Low 80 Least Affected 3 Medium Plumtree Low 50 Most Affected 3 Medium

Redcliff Low 70 Moderately 3 Medium Affected Rusape Low 120 Most Affected 4 High

Ruwa Low 90 Moderately 3 Medium Affected Shurugwi Town Low 80 Moderately 3 Medium Affected

Victoria Falls Very Low 20 Moderately 2 Low Affected

Zvishavane Urban Low 90 Most Affected 3 Medium

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Extreme heat Table 9 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative extreme heat hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 27 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative extreme heat hazard scores

Urban Area TH! Extreme Heat Extreme Heat Hazard Extreme Heat Hazard Score Description Beitbridge Urban Medium 3 Medium

Bindura Urban Low 2 Low Bulawayo Low 2 Low

Chegutu Urban Low 2 Low Chinhoyi Medium 3 Medium

Chipinge Urban Medium 3 Medium Chiredzi Urban Medium 3 Medium

Chirundu Medium 3 Medium

Chitungwiza Low 2 Low Epworth Low 2 Low

Gokwe South Medium 3 Medium Urban Gwanda Urban Medium 3 Medium

Gweru Urban Low 2 Low Harare Low 2 Low

Hwange Urban Medium 3 Medium

Kadoma Urban Medium 3 Medium

Kariba Urban Medium 3 Medium

Karoi Medium 3 Medium Kwekwe Urban Low 2 Low

Lupane Low 2 Low Marondera Urban Low 2 Low

Masvingo Urban Medium 3 Medium

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Mutare Urban Medium 3 Medium

Mvurwi Low 2 Low

Norton Low 2 Low

Plumtree Medium 3 Medium

Redcliff Low 2 Low Rusape Medium 3 Medium

Ruwa Low 2 Low

Shurugwi Town Low 2 Low

Victoria Falls Medium 3 Medium

Zvishavane Urban Medium 3 Medium

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Landslide Table 10 presents the high-level quantitative/semi-quantitative landslide hazard assessment for each of the 32 urban areas.

Table 28 – Qualitative/semi-quantitative landslide hazard scores

Urban Area TH! NASA NASA Image Landslide Landslide Landslide Median Maximum Analysis - Hazard Hazard Landslide Landslide Landslide Score Descriptio Susceptibil Susceptibil Hazards n ity ity Beitbridge Urban No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low

Bindura Urban No Data Moderate- Moderate- Low 3 Medium Low High Bulawayo No Data Low Moderate- Very Low 2 Low Low Chegutu Urban No Data Low Low Low 2 Low

Chinhoyi No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low

Chipinge Urban No Data Moderate- Moderate Low 2 Low Low

Chiredzi Urban No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Low Chirundu No Data Moderate Moderate Medium 3 Medium

Chitungwiza No Data Low Low Low 2 Low Epworth No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Low

Gokwe South No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Urban Low

Gwanda Urban No Data Moderate- Moderate Low 2 Low Low

Gweru Urban No Data Low Moderate- Very Low 2 Low Low

Harare No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low Hwange Urban No Data Moderate- Moderate- Medium 3 Medium Low High

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Kadoma Urban No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low

Kariba Urban No Data Moderate Moderate- Medium 3 Medium High

Karoi No Data Moderate- Moderate- Low 2 Low Low Low Kwekwe Urban No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Low

Lupane No Data Low Moderate Very Low 2 Low

Marondera Urban No Data Moderate- Moderate Low 2 Low Low

Masvingo Urban No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low Mutare Urban No Data Moderate High Medium 3 Medium

Mvurwi No Data Low Low Very Low 2 Low Norton No Data Low Moderate- Very Low 2 Low Low

Plumtree No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Low Redcliff No Data Low Moderate Low 2 Low

Rusape No Data Low Moderate- Very Low 2 Low Low

Ruwa No Data Low Moderate- Low 2 Low Low Shurugwi Town No Data Moderate Moderate- Medium 3 Medium High

Victoria Falls No Data Moderate- Moderate- Low 2 Low Low High

Zvishavane Urban No Data Moderate Moderate- Low 3 Medium High

Results (by urban areas)

Table 29 – Summary of qualitative/semi-quantitative hazard scores by urban areas

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Urban Area Flood Drought Wildfire Earthqu High Extreme Landslid Hazard Hazard Hazard ake Winds Heat e Hazard Score Score Score Hazard Hazard Hazard Score Score Score Score Beitbridge Urban 3 4 3 1 4 3 2

Bindura Urban 2 3 3 2 2 2 3

Bulawayo 2 4 4 1 3 2 2

Chegutu Urban 2 2 3 2 2 2 2

Chinhoyi 1 1 4 2 3 3 2

Chipinge Urban 3 3 4 3 4 3 2

Chiredzi Urban 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 Chirundu 2 1 4 3 1 3 3

Chitungwiza 2 2 4 1 3 2 2 Epworth 2 2 4 1 2 2 2

Gokwe South 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 Urban Gwanda Urban 2 4 3 1 3 3 2

Gweru Urban 2 4 4 1 2 2 2 Harare 2 2 4 1 2 2 2

Hwange Urban 3 4 4 3 1 3 3

Kadoma Urban 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 Kariba Urban 3 2 3 3 2 3 3

Karoi 2 2 4 3 2 3 2

Kwekwe Urban 2 3 3 3 3 2 2

Lupane 3 3 4 2 1 2 2

Marondera Urban 2 3 4 1 3 2 2

Masvingo Urban 2 3 3 1 4 3 2

Mutare Urban 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 Mvurwi 1 1 4 2 2 2 2

Norton 2 2 4 2 3 2 2

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Plumtree 2 4 3 2 3 3 2

Redcliff 2 3 3 2 3 2 2

Rusape 2 3 3 2 4 3 2

Ruwa 2 2 4 1 3 2 2

Shurugwi Town 2 4 4 1 3 2 3 Victoria Falls 3 4 3 3 2 3 2

Zvishavane Urban 2 3 3 1 3 3 3

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Climate change IPCC climate change models The 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents a range of global climate change models. These climate models are available for a range of indicators, for a range of future time periods and for a range of different modelled scenarios. The global climate models have a spatial resolution of ~250 km. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) represent a range of different possible changes in future anthropogenic emissions scenarios. RCP2.5 is the most optimistic scenario and would only be realised if strong mitigation efforts and early participation from all greenhouse gas emitters were achieved including subsequent active removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In contract, RCP8.5 is the most pessimistic scenario and is based on minimal effort to reduce emissions. RCP4.5 presents a more middle-of-the-road scenario. For this project two indicators are used: Relative change in seasonal mean precipitation (expressed as % change from current long-term mean); and Absolute change in seasonal mean temperature (expressed in °C). Furthermore, the following model parameters were used: 2046 – 2065 future period; Summer and winter season models; 50th percentile results; and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Table 12 presents the climate change models extracted for each of the 32 urban areas for this study. It should be noted that the spatial resolution of the climate models is significantly larger than the size of each urban area and hence the estimates provide an indication of the potential effects of climate change only and does not account for the potential for localised variations in climate. The models indicate at a national-scale: An increase in temperature of between 1.6 °C and 2.6 °C, the magnitude of which is largely dictated by which of the RCPs is used. A reduction in summer rainfall of between 7 % and 25 %. A reduction in winter rainfall of between 2 % and 8%.

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Several other studies434445 cite downscaled climate change models which provide a higher spatial resolution than the global climate models used here. These models were not available for use by this project, however their general conclusions about trends in temperature and precipitation are the same as the global climate models. The global climate models are therefore appropriate for this study.

43 World Bank (2015) Supporting Zimbabwe’s Climate Resilience Agenda: Background Notes in Support of the National Climate Policy: Note E: Technical Appendix on Climate Change Scenarios for Zimbabwe (Draft). Provided to Arup on 23/07/2019. 44 Masimba, O., Gumindoga, W., Mhizha, A. and Rwasoka, D. T. (2019) An assessment of baseline and downscaled projected climate variables in the Upper Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. 45 Taylor, A. (2012) Information on Zimbabwe's climate and how it is changing. weADAPT. Available online: https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/using-climate-information/zimbabwe-climate-analysis (accessed 23/09/2019).

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Table 30 – Climate change model indicators extracted at the location of the 32 urban areas.

Indicator Modelled change in seasonal mean Modelled change in seasonal mean temperature (+ °C) rainfall (%)

Season Summer Winter Summer Winter

Urban Area / RCP RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Beitbridge Urban 1.6 2.4 1.6 2.5 -8 -18 -2 -3

Bindura Urban 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8

Bulawayo 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -12 -19 -5 -7

Chegutu Urban 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8

Chinhoyi 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8 Chipinge Urban 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.3 -7 -13 -3 -7

Chiredzi Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8

Chirundu 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -14 -17 -3 -5 Chitungwiza 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8

Epworth 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Gokwe South 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.4 -12 -19 -5 -7 Urban

Gwanda Urban 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.3 -12 -23 -5 -7 Gweru Urban 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -10 -19 -5 -7

Harare 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Hwange Urban 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 -17 -25 -6 -6

Kadoma Urban 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -11 -16 -5 -7

Kariba Urban 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -14 -17 -5 -7

Karoi 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.4 -12 -17 -5 -7

Kwekwe Urban 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -11 -19 -5 -7

Lupane 1.8 2.5 1.7 2.3 -12 -19 -5 -7

Marondera Urban 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8

Masvingo Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8 Mutare Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.3 -8 -12 -3 -7

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Mvurwi 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.3 -11 -18 -5 -8

Norton 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8

Plumtree 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.3 -12 -23 -5 -7

Redcliff 1.9 2.5 1.7 2.3 -11 -19 -5 -7

Rusape 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8 Ruwa 1.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 -11 -16 -5 -8

Shurugwi Town 1.8 2.6 1.7 2.4 -10 -16 -5 -7

Victoria Falls 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 -17 -25 -6 -6

Zvishavane Urban 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 -10 -18 -5 -8

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Supporting evidence Zimbabwe already has an extremely variable rainfall pattern and climate change will intensify this variability46. This means that although a modest reduction in total rainfall is predicted, the intensity and variation in rainfall events may increase. This means that rather than reducing in-line with a reduction in total rainfall, the potential for dangerous, flash-floods may increase. Furthermore, as floods become more intense and powerful, so too becomes their erosive power, which may lead to the increased occurrence of landslides. The urban heat island effect is also likely to disproportionally increase temperatures in urban areas in comparison to rural areas across Zimbabwe47. On average, approximately 3 – 4 tropical cyclones from the east Indian Ocean make landfall on the south- eastern coastline of Africa near Mozambique per year48. Several more westerly trending storms and cyclones make landfall on Madagascar each year but do not reach mainland Africa. Sea surface temperature rise associated with climate change may lead to more cyclones tracking south of Madagascar and making landfall in Mozambique in the future49. These cyclones and associated tropical storms have the potential to increase wind hazard in Zimbabwe due to climate change, however the magnitude or likelihood of this change is not well understood. Inclusion of climate change indicators in qualitative/semi-quantitative assessment To make an allowance for climate change indicators in estimating potential future levels of hazard in Zimbabwe it is necessary to equate the model indicators (Table 12) to a relative change in hazard score (Table 11). It is proposed that no hazard scores are reduced for the potential future scoring. Since model estimates of change in seasonal mean temperature do not vary significantly spatially across Zimbabwe50 it is proposed that drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject to an overall increase in hazard score of 1. This means that regardless of location, areas which scored 2 in the current-scenario assessment for drought will score 3 for the potential future hazard score. Using RCP8.5 (summer), for urban areas with an estimated reduction in seasonal mean rainfall of >20 % it is proposed that drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject to an overall increase in hazard score of

46 Brazier, A. (2015) Climate Change in Zimbabwe: Facts for Planners and Decision Makers. Researcy Advocacy Unit with support from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Available online: https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=6dfce726-fdd1-4f7b-72e7-e6c1ca9c9a95&groupId=252038 [accessed 11/09/2019]. 47 UNDP (2017) Stocktaking for National Adaption Plan Development Process: Consultative Workshop – Climate Change in Urban Areas. 23/11/2017, Cresta Jameson Hotel, Harare. 48 Cadribo, R. (2012) Flood Risk Management in Mozambique and Sub-regional Trans-boundary Issues. UNFCCC regional expoert meeting on loss and damage in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 13 to 15 June 2012. Available online: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/cadribo_session2.pdf 49 Fitchett, J. M. and Grab, S. W. (2014) A 66-year tropical cyclone record for south-east Africa: temporal trends in a global context. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 3604 – 3615. 50 This lack of spatial variability may be attributed to two sources: absence of climate variability; and/or insufficient resolution of the climate models to resolve climate variability.

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2. For urban areas with an estimated reduction in seasonal mean rainfall of 10 – 20 % it is proposed drought, wildfire, and extreme heat are subject to an overall increase in hazard score of 1. Using RCP8.5, for urban areas where the estimated difference between summer mean rainfall and winter mean rainfall is >10 % it is proposed that flood and landslide are subject to an overall increase in hazard score of 1. This represents the estimated increased seasonality and intensity of rainfall events (Section 4.2). There is some evidence to suggest high wind hazard related to cyclones and tropical storms may increase due to climate change (Section 4.2), however this is generally poorly understood. High wind hazards are subject to an increase in hazard score of 1 in the eastern-most urban areas of Zimbabwe only. The maximum of the potential future score increases is used. This means that an urban area which receives an increase in wildfire score of 1 due to change in seasonal mean temperature and an increase of 2 due to change in seasonal mean rainfall will receive an overall increase in hazard score of 2. Future hazard scores will be capped at a value of 5. Table 13 presents the relative change in each of the indicators to consider the potential future levels of hazard. Table 14 presents the potential future levels of hazard accounting for climate change impacts.

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Table 31 – Relative change in each of the indicators to consider the potential future levels of hazard accounting for climate change

Urban Area Flood Drought Wildfire Earthqu High Extreme Landslid Hazard Hazard Hazard ake Wind Heat e Hazard Score Score Score Hazard Hazard Hazard Score (change) (change) (change) Score Score Score (change) (change) (change) (change) Beitbridge Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Bindura Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Bulawayo 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Chegutu Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Chinhoyi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Chipinge Urban 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Chiredzi Urban 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 Chirundu 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Chitungwiza 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Epworth 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Gokwe South 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Urban

Gwanda Urban 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 Gweru Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Harare 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Hwange Urban 1 1 1 0 0 2 1

Kadoma Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Kariba Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Karoi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Kwekwe Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Lupane 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Marondera Urban 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 Masvingo Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

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Mutare Urban 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Mvurwi 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Norton 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Plumtree 1 1 2 0 0 2 1

Redcliff 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 Rusape 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Ruwa 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Shurugwi Town 0 1 1 0 0 1 0

Victoria Falls 1 1 2 0 0 2 1

Zvishavane Urban 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

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Table 32 – Potential future levels of hazard accounting for climate change impacts.

Bindura Urban 3 4 4 2 2 3 4

Bulawayo 3 5 5 1 3 3 3

Chegutu Urban 2 3 4 2 2 3 2 Chinhoyi 2 2 5 2 3 4 3

Chipinge Urban 3 4 5 3 5 4 2 Chiredzi Urban 4 4 4 3 5 4 3

Chirundu 3 2 5 3 1 4 4

Chitungwiza 2 3 5 1 3 3 2 Epworth 2 3 5 1 2 3 2

Gokwe South 4 4 4 2 2 4 3 Urban

Gwanda Urban 3 5 5 1 3 5 3

Gweru Urban 3 5 5 1 2 3 3 Harare 2 3 5 1 2 3 2

Hwange Urban 4 5 5 3 1 5 4 Kadoma Urban 2 4 4 2 2 4 2

Kariba Urban 4 3 4 3 2 4 4

Karoi 3 3 5 3 2 4 3

Kwekwe Urban 3 4 4 3 3 3 3

Lupane 4 4 5 2 1 3 3

Marondera Urban 2 4 5 1 3 3 2

Masvingo Urban 3 4 4 1 4 4 3

Mutare Urban 2 4 4 3 5 4 3

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Mvurwi 2 2 5 2 2 3 3

Norton 2 3 5 2 3 3 2

Plumtree 3 5 5 2 3 5 3

Redcliff 3 4 4 2 3 3 3

Rusape 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 Ruwa 2 3 5 1 3 3 2

Shurugwi Town 2 5 5 1 3 3 3

Victoria Falls 4 5 5 3 2 5 3

Zvishavane Urban 3 4 4 1 3 4 4

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Appendix A – Imagery

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