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Urban Resilience Systems Analysis

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Urban Resilience Systems Analysis Empowered lives. GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE Resilient nations. Urban Resilience Systems Analysis Zimbabwe 1 Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 9 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Background ................................................................................................................................... 14 Purpose and scope of the Urban Resilience Systems Assessment (URSA) .................................. 16 Definition of urban resilience in Zimbabwe ................................................................................. 17 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 23 Plan of the Report ......................................................................................................................... 29 Urban circumstances in Zimbabwe ............................................................................................... 30 Overall political, economic and demographic context .................................................................. 30 Geography, Climate and Environment .......................................................................................... 33 Defining urban systems in Zimbabwe .......................................................................................... 44 3. Shocks and Stressors profile in Cities of Zimbabwe ................................................................ 69 Definition of ‘disturbance’ in the context of Zimbabwe ............................................................... 69 Shocks Profile ............................................................................................................................... 69 Stressors profile ............................................................................................................................ 77 Climate change projections ........................................................................................................... 81 Relevance of listed shocks and stressors for the urban systems of Zimbabwe for urban resilience91 4. Evaluating Urban Resilience in Zimbabwe .............................................................................. 92 Dimension 1: Health and Basic Needs .......................................................................................... 93 Dimension 2: Economy, Society and Livelihoods ...................................................................... 140 Dimension 3: Infrastructure, Planning and Ecosystems ............................................................. 166 Dimension 4 - Governance and Citizen Participation ................................................................. 191 Interdependency Analysis ........................................................................................................... 215 5. Detailed Findings ...................................................................................................................... 225 Key findings ................................................................................................................................ 225 6. Conclusions and way forward ................................................................................................. 239 References ...................................................................................................................................... 245 Appendix 1: Meta data for systems analysis .............................................................................. 262 Appendix 2: Natural Hazards Overview .................................................................................... 289 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 289 0 1 List of Figures and Tables Figure 15: Global seismic hazard map. Peak ground acceleration (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years; 475-year return period) . 72 Figure 16 Hazards in ZImbabwe according to Figure 1 Analytical framework for the URSA ..... 17 ThinkHazard! ....................................................... 74 Figure 2 Urban councils consulted in local Figure 17: NASA Global Landslide Susceptibility workshops. The Harare workshop was also Map ...................................................................... 75 attended by Chitingwiza, Epworth and Ruwa Figure 18: Figure 3 Malaria Risk Map - Health (Source: Authors, 2019, with MapBox image) ... 24 Protection Scotland (Accessed 2019) .................. 78 Figure 3 System network analysis visualisation by Figure 19: Figure 4 Cholera Risk Map – World URSA (Source: Authors, 2019 ............................ 27 Health Organisation (2008) ................................. 79 Figure 4 Summary overview of research methods Figure 20 Frequency, mortality and economic used for the URSA (source: authors, 2019) ......... 28 impact data for Zimbabwe Source: EM-DATA, Figure 5 Summary Of Zimbabwean Economic And CRED EM-DAT (Feb. 2015) : www.emdat.be Development Indicators (1980 - 2018) (Source: Université catholique de Louvain Brussels - IMF, 2018) ........................................................... 32 Belgium. .............................................................. 84 Figure 6: FigBritish Geological Survey with data Figure 21: Shock and Stresses Profile 2019 and from WWF and FAO (Placeholder) ..................... 33 2050. Source Authors (2019) ............................... 91 Figure 7: Elevation map of Zimbabwe showing 32 Figure 22: Urban Resilience Framework for urban area. Source: Authors (2019) ..................... 34 Zimbabwe ............................................................ 92 Figure 8: Wetland map of Harare. Source: Figure 23 Percentage of properties in the urban Environmental Management Agency of Zimbabwe council with direct water supply (Source: SLB, (2012). .................................................................. 36 2015) .................................................................. 100 Figure 9 Mineral of Zimbabwe and protected areas. Figure 24 Percentage of water supplied to Source: screenshot from Ecosystem conservation properties that passes quality benchmarks (Source: and restoration initiatives in Zimbabwe, Chip SLB, 2015) ........................................................ 100 Chirara – Biodiversity Coordinator, Livingstone – Figure 25Continuity of water supply (Source: SLB, 15 May 2014 ........................................................ 37 2015) .................................................................. 101 Figure 10 Urban areas of Zimbabwe (red dots) and Figure 26 Per capita daily supply of water by urban Natural Regions of Zimbabwe (Sources: Arup, council (Source: SLB, 2015) ............................. 101 adapted from FAO (2006) .................................... 39 Figure 27 Percentage of households with access to Figure 11 Excerpt from the EPI Country Profile functional toilets (Source: SLB, 2015) .............. 105 Zimbabwe (0 = worst; 100 = best) Source: EPI, Figure 28 Percentage of households with access to 2018 improved sanitation facilities (Source: Census, https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/ 2012) .................................................................. 105 2018-zwe.pdf ....................................................... 43 Figure 29 Percentage of generated waste collected Figure 12: Local Government System in by council (Source: SLB, 2015) ........................ 110 Zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019, adapted from Figure 30 Percentage of properties with kerbside Marume, 2015`` ................................................... 44 waste collection (Source: SLB, 2015) ............... 110 Figure 13 Hierarchy of urban centers. Source: Figure 31 Under Weight Percentages By GOZ, Habitat III, 2015 ......................................... 45 District/City And Province (Under 5 Yrs. Old), Figure 14 Locations of Urban Councils/Areas in 2014 ................................................................... 112 zimbabwe. Source: Authors, 2019 with Mapbox basemap ............................................................... 46 2 Figure 32 Average Annual Household Cash World Bank (2019) and informal employment data Consumption Expenditure by Province from ZimStat (2012) .......................................... 144 Percentage(Food, Non alcoholic beverage) ....... 112 Figure 49 Economic diversity by urban centre Figure 33 Percentage of children under 5 years of (Source: Authors, 2019) .................................... 145 age with stunting (Source: Zimstat, 2014) ......... 115 Figure 50 Percentage of businesses started in the Figure 34 Percentage of underweight children last two years (Source: Zimstat, 2016. Note: under 5 years of age (Source: Zimstat, 2014) .... 115 Province-level data) ........................................... 147 Figure 35 Percentage of average annual household Figure 51 Labour force participation rate expenditure on food (Source: Zimstat, 2017.Note: (individuals > 15 years of age) (Source: Census, Province-level data) ........................................... 115 2012) .................................................................. 147 Figure 36: Map showing location of power Figure 52 GINI coefficient
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