Institutional Equities

Two-wheeler Sector 11 September 2017

HMSI Continues To Grow Across Segments Gaurant Dadwal In YTDFY18 (Apr-July), & Scooters (HMSI) continued with Research Analyst market share gains, like it witnessed in FY17, on the back of strong market share [email protected] gains in scooters as well as motorcycles. lost maximum market share +91-22-3926 8145 because of the decline in market share in segment and its absence in segment. Market leader Hero MotoCorp lost marginal market share following Vivek Sarin

market share loss in scooter segment, while in motorcycle segment its gained 180bps Research Associate

of market share. TVS Motor Company broadly retained its market share in YTDFY18 [email protected] largely because of strong growth in scooters. Other players like and +91- 22-3926 8176 also gained market share. Good start in FY18, scooters continue to gain share: Overall, the two-wheeler industry had a good start in FY18 with domestic volume growing 9.2% on YTD basis versus 2.9%/6.9% growth in FY16/FY17, respectively. Strong retail sales in March 2017 on the back of BS-III vehicle ban-related discounts and strong marriage season-led demand in May 2017 resulted in a good 9.2% YTD growth for the industry. In the two-wheeler segment, both motorcycles and scooters reported domestic YoY growth of 6.6%/18.2%, respectively, while mopeds posted a low double-digit YoY decline. Scooter sales, as a percentage share in the industry, grew 31.0% i.e. more than a 200bps increase in share, while the share of motorcycles and mopeds shrunk to 65.5% (down 121bps) and 3.5% (down 92bps), respectively. We expect the scooterisation trend to continue in India as scooters are now making inroads into rural areas because of the improvement in road infrastructure. HMSI continues its strong momentum: HMSI has been continuously gaining market share over the years on the back of gains in scooters and motorcycles. In YTDFY18, HMSI gained MarketAnalysis Share 257bps market share in overall two-wheeler market on the back of strong growth in motorcycles as well as scooters. In motorcycle segment, the company gained 182bps market share and now commands 16.4% market share in motorcycles (second-largest), while in scooters it continues to dominate the segment with a strong 59.4% market share. HMSI has gained closed to 50bps market share in scooters on YTDFY18 basis largely because of its Dio model (more than 192bps market share gain), while its Activa scooter model lost 22bps market share. Bajaj Auto sheds major market share: Bajaj Auto has lost maximum market share in YTDFY18 as it witnessed market share loss in motorcycles. The company, on the back of new launches over FY16-FY17 had re-gained the share it had lost previously, but with rising competitive intensity it again started to lose market share. Apart from this, its absence in scooter segment continued to drag down its share in overall two-wheeler segment. Bajaj Auto lost 437bps market share in motorcycle segment in YTDFY18, while in overall two- wheeler segment it lost 302bps market share. New launches meet with limited success: Two-wheeler OEMs have launched new models aggressively in recent years to gain market share, but new model launches registered limited success following the dominance of existing brands in respective segments. Strong brands like Splendor, Passion, CD dawn, Activa, Royal Enfield Classic etc. emerged winners against such new launches. Most of the new recent model launches in various segments have, after the initial euphoria, witnessed a market share loss. For instance, Bajaj Auto’s V15 and CT 100 had a great start, but lost market share after the initial success. In the scooter segment too, Hero MotoCorp’s Duet model had a good start, but has been losing market share in recent months. We note that in motorcycle segment HMSI’s Livo, which was launched in March 2016, is close to its peak market share, while most other models launched witnessed a sharp fall in market share. Outlook and valuation: We currently have Accumulate rating on Hero MotoCorp (target price Rs4,081), Bajaj Auto (target price Rs3,022) and (target price Rs33,462). We have a Sell rating on TVS Motor Company (target price Rs336).

Institutional Equities

Exhibit 1: YTD YoY growth and market share performance of two-wheeler players Domestic motorcycles Domestic scooters Domestic two-wheeler volume

OEMs YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) Hero MotoCorp 19,43,687 21,45,491 10.4 2,83,316 2,77,159 (2.2) 22,27,003 24,22,648 8.8 HMSI 5,61,141 6,72,828 19.9 11,06,284 13,17,610 19.1 16,67,425 19,90,438 19.4 TVS Motor 2,77,495 3,01,158 8.5 2,48,509 3,38,723 36.3 8,18,195 8,93,963 9.3 Bajaj Auto 7,23,204 5,91,477 (18.2) - - - 7,23,204 5,91,477 (18.2) Yamaha 1,18,825 1,22,167 2.8 1,40,305 1,42,696 1.7 2,59,130 2,64,863 2.2 Suzuki India 20,402 24,794 21.5 70,826 1,18,037 66.7 91,228 1,42,831 56.6 Royal Enfield 1,95,457 2,42,039 23.8 - - - 1,95,457 2,42,039 23.8 Mahindra 7,854 1,629 (79.3) 18,157 4,436 (75.6) 26,011 6,065 (76.7) Piaggio - - - 9,249 18,838 103.7 9,249 18,838 103.7 HD Motor 1,420 1,162 (18.2) - - - 1,420 1,162 (18.2) Kawasaki 444 408 (8.1) - - - 444 408 (8.1) Triumph 471 491 4.2 - - - 471 491 4.2 Total 38,50,400 41,03,644 6.6 18,76,646 22,17,499 18.2 60,19,237 65,75,225 9.2

Market share Motorcycle market share (%) Scooter market share (%) Overall market share (%) OEMs YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change Hero MotoCorp 50.5 52.3 180 15.1 12.5 (260) 37.0 36.8 (15) HMSI 14.6 16.4 182 59.0 59.4 47 27.7 30.3 257 TVS Motor 7.2 7.3 13 13.2 15.3 203 13.6 13.6 0 Bajaj 18.8 14.4 (437) 0.0 0.0 - 12.0 9.0 (302) Yamaha 3.1 3.0 (11) 7.5 6.4 (104) 4.3 4.0 (28) Suzuki India 0.5 0.6 7 3.8 5.3 155 1.5 2.2 66 Royal Enfield 5.1 5.9 82 - - - 3.2 3.7 43 Mahindra 0.2 0.0 (16) 1.0 0.2 (77) 0.4 0.1 (34) Piaggio - - - 0.5 0.8 36 0.2 0.3 13 HD Motor ------Kawasaki ------Triumph ------Total 100 100 - 100 100 - 100 100 - Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research; *Note: YTD data represents Apr-July period Exhibit 2: Yearly YoY growth and market share performance of two-wheeler players Domestic motorcycles Domestic scooters Domestic two-wheeler volume

OEMs FY16 FY17 YoY (%) FY16 FY17 YoY (%) FY16 FY17 YoY (%) Hero MotoCorp 56,03,106 56,93,681 1.6 8,18,777 7,89,974 (3.5) 64,21,883 64,83,655 1.0 HMSI 14,94,153 15,36,055 2.8 27,89,537 31,89,012 14.3 42,83,690 47,25,067 10.3 TVS Motor 7,12,002 7,73,141 8.6 7,73,597 8,26,342 6.8 22,09,366 24,90,001 12.7 Bajaj Auto 18,98,957 20,01,391 5.4 - - - 18,98,957 20,01,391 5.4 Yamaha 3,32,958 3,48,674 4.7 3,18,450 4,40,423 38.3 6,51,408 7,89,097 21.1 Suzuki India 92,912 69,737 (24.9) 2,20,388 2,80,783 27.4 3,13,300 3,50,520 11.9 Royal Enfield 4,98,791 6,51,107 30.5 - - - 4,98,791 6,51,107 30.5 Mahindra 60,367 14,606 (75.8) 84,064 34,308 (59.2) 1,44,431 48,914 (66.1) Piaggio - - - 26,865 41,171 53.3 26,865 41,171 53.3 HD Motor 4,708 3,690 (21.6) - - - 4,708 3,690 (21.6) Kawasaki 1,283 1,246 (2.9) - - - 1,283 1,246 (2.9) Triumph 1,139 1,174 3.1 - - - 1,139 1,174 3.1 Total 1,07,00,376 1,10,94,502 3.7 50,31,678 56,02,013 11.3 1,64,55,821 1,75,87,033 6.9

Market share Motorcycle market share (%) Scooter market share (%) Overall market share (%) OEMs FY16 FY17 bps change FY16 FY17 bps change FY16 FY17 bps change Hero MotoCorp 52.4 51.3 (104) 16.3 14.1 (217) 39.0 36.9 (216) HMSI 14.0 13.8 (12) 55.4 56.9 149 26.0 26.9 84 TVS Motor 6.7 7.0 31 15.4 14.8 (62) 13.4 14.2 73 Bajaj 17.7 18.0 29 - - - 11.5 11.4 (16) Yamaha 3.1 3.1 3 6.3 7.9 153 4.0 4.5 53 Suzuki India 0.9 0.6 (24) 4.4 5.0 63 1.9 2.0 9 Royal Enfield 4.7 5.9 121 - - - 3.0 3.7 67 Mahindra 0.6 0.1 (43) 1.7 0.6 (106) 0.9 0.3 (60) Piaggio - - - 0.5 0.7 20 0.2 0.2 7 HD Motor - - (1) - - - - - (1) Kawasaki ------Triumph ------Total 100 100 - 100 100 - 100 100 - Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

2 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Good start to FY18, scooters continue to gain share: Overall, the two-wheeler industry had a good start in FY18 with domestic volume growing 9.2% on YTD basis versus 2.9%/6.9% growth in FY16/17, respectively. Strong retail sales in March 2017 on the back of BS III vehicle ban-relating discounts and strong marriage season-led demand in May 2017 resulted in good 9.2% YTD growth for the industry. In two-wheeler segment, motorcycles as well as scooters reported domestic YoY growth of 6.6%/18.2%, respectively, while mopeds posted low double-digit YoY decline. Scooter sales, as a percentage share of the industry, grew to 31.0% i.e. more than a 200bps increase in share while the share of motorcycles and mopeds shrunk to 65.5% (down 121bps) and 3.5% (down 92bps). We expect the scooter trend to continue in India as scooters are now making inroads into rural areas because of the improvement in road infrastructure. Exhibit 3: Two-wheeler sales volume break-up

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 YTD growth Domestic volume 7.2 7.4 9.4 11.8 13.4 13.8 14.8 16.0 16.5 17.6 6.0 6.6 9.2 (mn units) Motorcycle 5.8 5.8 7.3 9.0 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.1 3.9 4.1 6.6 Scooters 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.6 1.9 2.2 18.2 Mopeds & others 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.3 (13.0) Exports 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.9 12.3 Motorcycle 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.8 13.3 Scooters - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 7.3 Mopeds & others ------(27.7) Total two-wheelers 8.1 8.4 10.5 13.3 15.4 15.8 16.9 18.5 18.9 19.9 6.8 7.5 9.6 Motorcycle 6.5 6.8 8.4 10.5 12.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 12.9 13.1 4.5 4.9 7.6 Scooters 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.7 4.7 5.3 5.9 2.0 2.3 17.7 Mopeds & others 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.3 (13.4) % Share in two-wheeler industry

Motorcycle 81.1 80.6 80.3 78.9 77.7 75.8 73.8 70.4 68.2 65.8 66.8 65.5 (121bps) Scooters 13.3 13.9 14.2 15.8 17.2 19.1 21.9 25.5 27.9 29.6 28.9 31.0 213bps Mopeds & others 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.4 3.5 (92bps) Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research HMSI gains the most in the two-wheeler space: HMSI emerged as the top gainer in market share in the two-wheeler segment backed by strong market share gains in motorcycle segment (182bps) followed by gains in scooter segment (47bps). Baja Auto lost maximum market share following a 437bps loss in motorcycle segment. TVS Motor retained its share in YTDFY18 largely because of growth in scooters, while Royal Enfield continues to gain market share on the back of strong growth in motorcycles. The company has gained 43bps in the two-wheeler space on YTD basis. Exhibit 4: Domestic two-wheeler market share movement – yearly (%) Company FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTDFY17* YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Hero MotoCorp 41.3 40.2 39.0 36.9 37.0 36.8 (15) HMSI 24.0 26.6 26.0 26.9 27.7 30.3 257 TVS Motor Company 11.8 13.2 13.4 14.2 13.6 13.6 - Bajaj Auto 14.2 11.1 11.5 11.4 12.0 9.0 (302) Yamaha India 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.0 (28) Royal Enfield 1.4 2.0 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.7 43 Suzuki Motorcycle India 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.5 2.2 66 Piaggio India 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 13 Mahindra Two-wheelers 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.1 (34) Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 5: Domestic motorcycle market share movement – yearly (%) Company FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTDFY17* YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Hero MotoCorp 51.8 52.9 52.4 51.3 50.5 52.3 180 HMSI 15.8 16.3 14.0 13.8 14.6 16.4 182 Bajaj Auto 20.0 16.5 17.7 18.0 18.8 14.4 (437) TVS Motor Company 5.5 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 13 Royal Enfield 1.9 3.0 4.7 5.9 5.1 5.9 82 Yamaha India 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 (11) Suzuki Motorcycle India 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 7 Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

3 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Exhibit 6: Domestic scooter market share movement – yearly (%) Company FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTDFY17* YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 HMSI 52.8 55.5 55.4 56.9 59.0 59.4 47 TVS Motor Company 12.7 15.3 15.4 14.8 13.2 15.3 203 Hero MotoCorp 19.2 16.7 16.3 14.1 15.1 12.5 (260) Yamaha India 4.9 4.8 6.3 7.9 7.5 6.4 (104) Suzuki Motorcycle India 8.2 6.1 4.4 5.0 3.8 5.3 155 Piaggio India 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 36 Mahindra Two-wheelers 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 (77) *YTDFY17 numbers until July 2017; Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Motorcycle segment Hero Motocorp and HMSI gain maximum market share In motorcycle segment, on YTDFY18 basis, most players gained market share from Bajaj Auto and Yamaha. Market leader Hero MotoCorp, despite having a lion’s share in motorcycle segment, gained 180bps market share followed by the second-largest player, HMSI, which gained 182bps market share. Bajaj Auto, after gaining market share over FY16/FY17, lost maximum market share of 437bps because of rising competitive intensity. Royal Enfield continues to dominate the premium segment and has gained 82bps market share. TVS Motor Company and Suzuki India gained marginal share while Yamaha India lost 11bps market share. For Hero MotoCorp, CD Dawn DLX helped it to gain 305bps market share in motorcycles. For HMSI, Shine and Unicorn models helped in gaining market share. For Bajaj Auto, CT 100, V15 and Eliminator/Avenger models led to sharp market share losses in FY18.

Exhibit 7: Market share of various players in motorcycle space – monthly (%) Motorcycle maker FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Hero MotoCorp 52.4 51.3 50.7 51.1 55.7 51.9 50.5 52.3 180 HMSI 14.0 13.8 17.8 16.6 15.1 16.0 14.6 16.4 182 Bajaj Auto 17.7 18.0 15.7 14.8 11.2 15.7 18.8 14.4 (437) TVS Motor Company 6.7 7.0 6.6 8.2 8.0 6.6 7.2 7.3 13 Royal Enfield 4.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.1 5.9 82 Yamaha India 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 (11) Suzuki Motorcycle 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 7 Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 8: Economy segment vehicle market share movement – monthly (%) Company FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 July-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Hero MotoCorp 48.1 55.1 57.5 55.9 66.6 61.5 51.3 60.3 897 Bajaj Auto 35.6 32.5 28.3 27.6 19.6 28.8 35.5 26.2 (932) TVS Motor Company 15.8 12.5 14.2 16.5 13.8 9.6 13.2 13.5 35 Yamaha India 0.4 ------Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 9: Executive segment vehicle market share movement – monthly (%) Company FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 July-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Hero MotoCorp 72.1 70.0 67.5 69.0 71.9 68.8 68.6 69.4 64 HMSI 21.6 20.5 26.5 24.0 22.0 23.9 20.5 24.2 369 Bajaj Auto 4.0 5.6 4.6 4.2 2.7 3.5 6.6 3.8 (287) TVS Motor Company 0.8 2.6 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.6 3.1 1.7 (144) Yamaha India 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.9 30 Suzuki Motorcycle 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 (4) Mahindra Two- wheelers 1.0 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.1 0.3 0.1 (28) Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

4 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Exhibit 10: Premium segment market share movement – monthly (%) Company FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 July-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 Bajaj Auto 35.2 33.0 28.7 26.4 23.2 29.9 34.1 27.1 (702) Royal Enfield 22.2 25.9 25.3 24.6 29.4 26.2 24.2 26.5 233 HMSI 8.0 11.4 16.4 16.7 14.6 15.0 11.8 15.6 378 TVS Motor Company 11.6 11.8 13.2 15.6 15.6 12.7 12.1 14.2 213 Yamaha India 13.5 11.0 10.0 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.4 10.6 (86) Hero MotoCorp 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.4 4.3 3.7 (64) Suzuki Motorcycle 3.7 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.3 32 Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 11: Motorcycle – model-wise market share of various players (%) Player Segment Model FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change Hero MotoCorp Economy CD Dawn Dlx 10.8 12.8 14.0 13.3 16.1 14.9 11.5 14.5 305 HMSI Executive Shine 7.5 6.8 9.8 8.2 7.2 7.8 6.3 8.3 194 Royal Enfield Motors Premium Enfield Bullet 4.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 6.6 6.1 5.1 6.0 84 HMSI Premium Unicorn 0.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.9 83 TVS Motor Premium Apache 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.6 3.2 64 Bajaj Auto Executive V 12 - 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 - 0.5 54 HMSI Premium CB Hornet 160R 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.3 46 TVS Motor Economy Sport 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 28 Hero MotoCorp Premium Achiever 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 26 Hero MotoCorp Executive Splendor PLUS 23.3 23.1 22.0 22.3 22.8 21.3 21.9 22.1 17 Yamaha Motors Executive Saluto 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 14 Bajaj Auto Premium Dominar - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 12 Suzuki Motorcycle India Premium GIXXER 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 10 Yamaha Motors Premium SZ 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 7 Bajaj Auto Premium KTM 350 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 7 Bajaj Auto Premium KTM 200 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 4 TVS Motor Economy Star 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 - HMSI Executive LIVO 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 (1) Suzuki Motorcycle India Executive Hayate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (2) Hero MotoCorp Premium CBZ X-TREME 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (4) Bajaj Auto Economy Platina 100/125 2.6 3.5 2.5 2.9 2.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 (5) TVS Motor Executive TVS Phoenix 0.5 0.1 ------(5) Yamaha Motors Premium YZF R15 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 (9) Bajaj Auto Premium Pulsar 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.7 3.9 5.4 4.8 4.8 (9) Yamaha Motors Premium FZ16 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 (10) Hero MotoCorp Economy CD Dawn 0.2 0.1 - - - - 0.1 - (13) Hero MotoCorp Premium Ignitor 0.2 0.1 - - - - 0.1 - (13) Bajaj Auto Executive Discover 125 cc 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 (25) HMSI Premium CB Unicorn 160 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 (26) HMSI Executive Dream Neo,Yuga 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 (51) Hero MotoCorp Executive Glamour-125 6.4 6.7 6.1 6.4 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.0 (79) TVS Motor Executive Victor 125 - 1.4 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.9 (80) Hero MotoCorp Executive Passion PLUS 10.7 7.9 7.8 8.4 8.0 7.6 8.9 8.0 (90) Bajaj Auto Premium Eliminator/Avenger 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 2.1 0.8 (125) Bajaj Auto Economy CT 100 5.5 4.1 4.4 3.7 2.6 3.9 5.3 3.7 (167) Bajaj Auto Executive V 15 0.2 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 2.8 0.8 (200) Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

5 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Scooter segment HMSI dominates the show, TVS Motor and Suzuki India gain maximum market share In scooter segment, HMSI dominates the show with a lion’s share of 59.4% market share. The company, despite its huge market share, continued to grow and has gained further 47bps market share in YTDFY18 on the back of Dio model which gained 192bps market share on YTDFY18 basis. Its Activa brand lost marginal market share to competitors. It is interesting to note that TVS Motor Company and Suzuki India, which have a smaller market share compared to HMSI, gained maximum market share in scooters. TVS Motor Company gained 203bps market share while Suzuki Motorcycle India gained 155bps market share followed by Piaggio which gained 36bps market share. On the other side, Hero MotoCorp and Yamaha India lost maximum market share of 260bps and 104bps, respectively. Key models which gained market share are HMSI Dio (up 192bps), Suzuki Access (164bps), TVS Jupiter (up 119bps), TVS Pep (up 76bps) and (up 50bps). The models which lost maximum market share are Hero Motocorp’s Duet (down 335bps), Yamaha’s Fascino (down 90bps), HMSI’s Aviator (down 30bps) and Activa (down 22bps). Exhibit 12: Market share of various players in scooter space (%) Company FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 July-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps change YTDFY18 HMSI 55.4 56.9 62.8 59.3 54.5 60.4 59.0 59.4 47 TVS Motor Company 15.4 14.8 13.5 14.8 17.3 15.7 13.2 15.3 204 Hero MotoCorp 16.3 14.1 10.9 12.5 15.2 11.8 15.1 12.5 (260) Yamaha India 6.3 7.9 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.8 7.5 6.4 (104) Suzuki Motorcycle India 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.4 5.0 3.8 5.3 155 Piaggio India 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 36 Mahindra Two-wheelers 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.2 (77) Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 13: Model-wise market share of various players in scooter space (%) Company Model FY16 FY17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 YTDFY17 YTDFY18 bps chg HMSI Dio 4.3 4.7 7.5 7.3 5.4 6.7 4.9 6.8 192 Suzuki India Access 3.5 4.7 4.8 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.5 5.1 164 TVS Motor Jupiter 10.7 11.0 10.0 10.1 12.2 11.0 9.6 10.8 119 TVS Motor Pep 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 1.5 2.2 76 Hero MotoCorp Maestro 9.9 6.8 6.0 6.4 7.8 7.1 6.3 6.8 50 Piaggio India Aprilia - 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 - 0.4 37 Hero MotoCorp Pleasure 3.7 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.3 2.2 2.4 2.6 25 TVS Motor Wego 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 6 Yamaha India Ray 2.0 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 4 TVS Motor Zest 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 3 Piaggio India Vespa 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 - Suzuki Lets 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 - HMSI Activa 49.0 49.3 53.3 50.1 47.2 51.4 50.8 50.6 (22) HMSI Aviator 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.6 (30) Yamaha India Fascino 2.8 3.8 3.7 3.1 3.2 2.8 4.1 3.2 (90) Hero MotoCorp Duet 2.7 4.7 2.5 3.4 4.1 2.5 6.4 3.1 (335) Source: Crisil, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research New launches meet with limited success Two-wheeler OEMs launched new models aggressively in recent years to gain market share, but met with limited success following the dominance of existing brands in respective segments. Strong brands like Splendor, Passion, CD Dawn, Activa, Royal Enfield Classic etc have emerged winners against such new launches. Most of the models launched recently in various segments have, after the initial euphoria, witnessed sharp market share loss. For instance, Bajaj Auto’s V15 and CT 100 had a great start, but lost market share after the initial euphoria. In scooter segment also, Hero MotoCorp’s Duet model had a good start but has been losing market share in recent months. We note that in motorcycle segment HMSI’s Livo, which was launched in March 2016, is close to its peak market share while most other models launched witnessed a sharp fall in market share.

6 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Exhibit 14: Two-wheeler launches Player Model Launch date YTD mkt share Peak mkt share Month of peak mkt share Motorcycle launch

Bajaj Auto CT 100 Feb-15 3.7 7.0 May-15 Bajaj Auto V 15 Feb-16 0.8 3.3 May-16 Bajaj Auto V 12 Nov-16 0.5 1.3 Jan-17 HMSI Livo Aug-15 2.3 2.7 Mar-16 Yamaha Motors Saluto Nov-15 0.5 0.8 Feb-17 TVS Motor Victor 125 Apr-16 0.9 1.9 Aug-16 Bajaj Auto KTM 350 Apr-15 0.1 0.2 Jun-17 Bajaj Auto Dominar Dec-16 0.1 0.4 Feb-17 HMSI CB HORNET 160R Dec-15 1.3 1.7 Feb-16 Yamaha Motors FZ25 Jul-17 0.1 0.3 Jul-17 Suzuki GIXXER Oct-14 0.5 1.0 Aug-15 Scooter launch

Hero MotoCorp Hero Duet Oct-15 3.1 8.4 Apr-16 HMSI Navi Mar-16 0.1 2.3 Jul-16 HMSI Cliq Jun-17 0.2 0.7 Jul-17 Piaggio Vehicles Aprilia SR150 Oct-16 0.4 0.7 Dec-16 Yamaha Motors Fascino Jul-15 3.2 4.9 Feb-17 Source: Crisil

Exhibit 15: Vehicle models/variants launched Company Segment Model Month of launch Engine capacity Bajaj Auto Motorcycle Pulsar 160 NS Jul-17 160 cc Motorcycle Pulsar 150 Feb-17 150cc

Motorcycle Pulsar 200 NS Feb-17 200cc

Motorcycle V 12 Jan-17 125cc

Bajaj- KTM Motorcycle 250 DUKE Feb-17 250cc Yamaha India Motorcycle Yamaha FZ 25 Jan-17 850 cc Hero MotoCorp Motorcycle Glamour Apr-17 125 cc Motorcycle Passion Pro i3S Feb-17 97.2 cc

Motorcycle HF Deluxe i3S Feb-17 97.2 cc

Motorcycle Splendour i3S iSmart Feb-17 125 cc

HMSI Scooter Cliq Jun-17 110 cc Scooter May-17 110 cc

Scooter i May-17 110 cc

Motorcycle Honda Africa Twin May-17 1000cc

Motorcycle CB Hornet 160R Apr-17 150 cc

Motorcycle Honda CBR1000RR Fireblade Apr-17 1000cc

Scooter Activa 4G Feb-17 110cc

GSX-R1000 Suzuki Motorcycle India Motorcycle May-17 1000 cc GSX-R1000R Scooter Let's (BS IV version) Mar-17 113 cc

Motorcycle Hayate (BS IV version) Mar-17 113 cc

TVS Motor Co. Scooter Scooty Zest May-17 110 cc Scooter Wego Feb-17 110 cc

Source: Crisil

7 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Exhibit 16: Upcoming new models/variants Company Segment Model Likely launch

Bajaj Auto Motorcycle Pulsar 400 SS Dec-17

Motorcycle Pulsar 180 NS Dec-17

Hero MotoCorp Motorcycle Impulse 250 Feb-18 Motorcycle HX250R Dec-17

Motorcycle RNT Feb-18

Motorcycle Xtreeme 200S Oct-17

Motorcycle Hastur Oct-18

Scooter Dare Oct-17

Scooter Leap Hybrid SES Early 2018

Scooter ZIR Feb-18

HMSI Motorcycle CBR300R Feb-18 Motorcycle CB500F Feb-18

Motorcycle CBR500R Feb-18

Motorcycle CB500X Feb- 18

Scooter PCX125 Feb-18

India Yamaha Motorcycle Motorcycle MT-03 Feb-18 Motorcycle MT-25 Early 2018

TVS Motor Motorcycle Apache RR 310S Late 2017 Motorcycle TVS X21 Late 2017

Motorcycle TVS-BMW G310R Early 2018

Scooter IQube Late 2018

Source: Crisil, Media releases Outlook and valuation: We currently have Accumulate rating on Hero MotoCorp (target price Rs4,081), Bajaj Auto (target price Rs3,022) and Eicher Motors (target price Rs33,462). We have a Sell rating on TVS Motor Company (target price Rs336).

Hero MotoCorp – Rating: Accumulate; CMP: Rs3,956; TP: Rs4,081 Y/E March (Rsmn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues 275,853 284,427 284,750 323,661 364,066 EBITDA 35,422 44,550 46,348 52,687 58,202 Adj. PAT 23,856 31,602 33,771 38,790 42,894 YoY (%) 13.1 32.5 6.9 14.9 10.6 FDEPS (Rs) 127.2 158.2 169.1 194.2 214.8 ROE (%) 41.9 41.1 35.7 35.2 32.8 ROCE (%) 49.5 51.2 42.0 41.4 38.4 P/E (x) 31.1 25.0 23.4 20.4 18.4 EV/EBITDA 21.6 16.9 16.0 13.8 12.4 EV/Sales 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Bajaj Auto – Rating: Accumulate; CMP- Rs2,915; TP: Rs3,022 Y/E March (Rsmn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues 211,039 221,517 213,735 240,847 274,471 EBITDA 41,166 47,819 44,224 48,149 57,427 Adj. PAT 31,539 39,297 38,276 41,573 48,715 EPS (Rs) 109.0 135.8 132.3 143.7 168.3 YoY (%) (13.2) 39.7 (2.6) 8.6 17.2 P/E (x) 26.7 21.5 22.0 20.3 17.3 EV/EBITDA 19.0 17.2 17.7 15.8 13.0 EV/Sales 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.7 RoE (%) 31.1 32.8 25.3 23.1 23.9 RoCE (%) 36.5 36.1 26.3 24.2 25.9 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

8 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

TVS Motor Company– Rating: SELL; CMP: Rs635; TP: Rs336 Y/E March (Rsmn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues 100,423 111,047 121,353 139,402 156,730 EBITDA 6,066 8,099 8,571 11,500 12,616 Adj. PAT 3,478 4,893 5,581 7,242 7,979 EPS (Rs) 7.3 10.3 11.7 15.2 16.8 YoY (%) 32.9 40.7 14.1 29.8 10.2 P/E (x) 86.7 61.7 54.1 41.7 37.8 EV/EBITDA 51.2 38.1 36.5 27.1 24.7 EV/Sales 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 ROE (%) 22.7 27.2 25.6 27.0 24.4 ROCE (%) 20.6 23.0 20.0 25.5 23.9 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Eicher Motors– Rating: Accumulate; CMP: Rs32,618; TP: Rs33,462 Y/E March (Rsmn) CY14 FY16 (15 months) FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues 30,312 61,862 70,380 90,438 108,573 EBITDA 7,336 17,082 22,058 28,880 35,286 Adj. PAT 5,589 13,092 15,600 20,134 24,383 EPS (Rs) 206.2 482.0 573.3 740.0 896.1 YoY (%) 101.0 133.7 18.9 29.1 21.1 P/E (x) 158.2 67.7 56.9 44.1 36.4 P/BV (x) 71.9 38.0 22.6 16.2 12.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 120.5 51.8 40.2 30.7 25.1 RoE (%) 45.3 46.6 39.8 36.8 33.2 RoCE (%) 44.0 45.3 38.4 35.8 32.5 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

9 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Rating history – Hero MotoCorp Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 26 May 2015 Buy 2,588 2,981 18 June 2015 Buy 2,525 2,981 9 July 2015 Buy 2,550 2,981 9 October 2015 Buy 2,545 3,023 23 October 2015 Buy 2,606 3,044 9 May 2016 Accumulate 2,893 3,104 9 August 2016 Accumulate 3,457 3,396 28 October 2016 Accumulate 3,314 3,655 3 January 2017 Buy 3,008 3,409 10 February 2017 Buy 3,265 3,596 12 May 2017 Accumulate 3,462 3,863 26 July 2017 Accumulate 3,709 4,081

Rating history – Bajaj Auto Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 26 May 2015 Accumulate 2,302 2,401 27 July 2015 Accumulate 2,497 2,451 9 October 2015 Accumulate 2,431 2,451 26 October 2015 Accumulate 2,516 2,472 27 May 2016 Accumulate 2,505 2,594 29 July 2016 Accumulate 2,655 2,702 1 November 2016 Accumulate 2,884 3,042 1 February 2017 Accumulate 2,833 2,950 14 February 2017 Accumulate 2,801 3,117 19 May 2017 Accumulate 2,973 3,035 21 July 2017 Accumulate 2,815 3,022

Rating history – TVS Motor Company Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 26 May 2015 Sell 230 193 9 July 2015 Sell 264 193 22 July 2015 Sell 252 193 9 October 2015 Sell 240 193 28 October 2015 Sell 275 205 11 January 2016 Sell 286 205 1 February 2016 Sell 292 242 4 May 2016 Sell 287 245 27 July 2016 Sell 291 245 28 October 2016 Sell 412 288 25 January 2017 Sell 400 286 03 February 2017 Sell 392 301 28 April 2017 Sell 503 336 14 August 2017 Sell 537 336

Rating track – Eicher Motors Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 18 July 2017 Buy 28,059 32,566 10 August 2017 Accumulate 31,440 33,462

10 Two-wheeler Sector

Institutional Equities

Disclaimer Stock Ratings Absolute Returns

BUY > 15% ACCUMULATE -5% to15% SELL < -5% This report is published by Nirmal Bang’s Institutional Equities Research desk. Nirmal Bang group has other business units with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis may not match with reports based on a company's fundamental analysis. This report is for the personal information of the authorised recipient and is not for public distribution. This should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or in any form. This report is for the general information for the clients of Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., a division of Nirmal Bang, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. Nirmal Bang or any persons connected with it do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document or the information contained therein. The recipients of this material should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on this information. Nirmal Bang or any of its connected persons including its directors or subsidiaries or associates or employees or agents shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person/s from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed in this publication. Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Limited. NBEPL has registered with SEBI as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. (Registration No: INH000001436 - 19.08.2015 to 18.08.2020). NBEPL or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. NBEPL or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL /analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market-making activity of the company covered by Analyst. The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision. Access all our reports on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Factset.

Team Details:

Name Email Id Direct Line

Rahul Arora CEO [email protected] -

Girish Pai Head of Research [email protected] +91 22 3926 8017 / 18

Dealing

Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk [email protected] +91 22 3926 8230, +91 22 6636 8833

Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk [email protected] +91 22 3926 8100/8101, +91 22 6636 8831

Michael Pillai Dealing Desk [email protected] +91 22 3926 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830

Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. Correspondence Address B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai-400013. Board No. : 91 22 3926 8000/1; Fax. : 022 3926 8010

11 Two-wheeler Sector