Institutional Equities Two-wheeler Sector 11 September 2017 HMSI Continues To Grow Across Segments Gaurant Dadwal In YTDFY18 (Apr-July), Honda Motorcycles & Scooters India (HMSI) continued with Research Analyst market share gains, like it witnessed in FY17, on the back of strong market share [email protected] gains in scooters as well as motorcycles. Bajaj Auto lost maximum market share +91-22-3926 8145 because of the decline in market share in motorcycle segment and its absence in scooter segment. Market leader Hero MotoCorp lost marginal market share following Vivek Sarin market share loss in scooter segment, while in motorcycle segment its gained 180bps Research Associate of market share. TVS Motor Company broadly retained its market share in YTDFY18 [email protected] largely because of strong growth in scooters. Other players like Royal Enfield and +91- 22-3926 8176 Suzuki also gained market share. Good start in FY18, scooters continue to gain share: Overall, the two-wheeler industry had a good start in FY18 with domestic volume growing 9.2% on YTD basis versus 2.9%/6.9% growth in FY16/FY17, respectively. Strong retail sales in March 2017 on the back of BS-III vehicle ban-related discounts and strong marriage season-led demand in May 2017 resulted in a good 9.2% YTD growth for the industry. In the two-wheeler segment, both motorcycles and scooters reported domestic YoY growth of 6.6%/18.2%, respectively, while mopeds posted a low double-digit YoY decline. Scooter sales, as a percentage share in the industry, grew 31.0% i.e. more than a 200bps increase in share, while the share of motorcycles and mopeds shrunk to 65.5% (down 121bps) and 3.5% (down 92bps), respectively. We expect the scooterisation trend to continue in India as scooters are now making inroads into rural areas because of the improvement in road infrastructure. HMSI continues its strong momentum: HMSI has been continuously gaining market share over the years on the back of gains in scooters and motorcycles. In YTDFY18, HMSI gained Market Share Analysis 257bps market share in overall two-wheeler market on the back of strong growth in motorcycles as well as scooters. In motorcycle segment, the company gained 182bps market share and now commands 16.4% market share in motorcycles (second-largest), while in scooters it continues to dominate the segment with a strong 59.4% market share. HMSI has gained closed to 50bps market share in scooters on YTDFY18 basis largely because of its Dio model (more than 192bps market share gain), while its Activa scooter model lost 22bps market share. Bajaj Auto sheds major market share: Bajaj Auto has lost maximum market share in YTDFY18 as it witnessed market share loss in motorcycles. The company, on the back of new launches over FY16-FY17 had re-gained the share it had lost previously, but with rising competitive intensity it again started to lose market share. Apart from this, its absence in scooter segment continued to drag down its share in overall two-wheeler segment. Bajaj Auto lost 437bps market share in motorcycle segment in YTDFY18, while in overall two- wheeler segment it lost 302bps market share. New launches meet with limited success: Two-wheeler OEMs have launched new models aggressively in recent years to gain market share, but new model launches registered limited success following the dominance of existing brands in respective segments. Strong brands like Splendor, Passion, CD dawn, Activa, Royal Enfield Classic etc. emerged winners against such new launches. Most of the new recent model launches in various segments have, after the initial euphoria, witnessed a sharp market share loss. For instance, Bajaj Auto’s V15 and CT 100 had a great start, but lost market share after the initial success. In the scooter segment too, Hero MotoCorp’s Duet model had a good start, but has been losing market share in recent months. We note that in motorcycle segment HMSI’s Livo, which was launched in March 2016, is close to its peak market share, while most other models launched witnessed a sharp fall in market share. Outlook and valuation: We currently have Accumulate rating on Hero MotoCorp (target price Rs4,081), Bajaj Auto (target price Rs3,022) and Eicher Motors (target price Rs33,462). We have a Sell rating on TVS Motor Company (target price Rs336). Institutional Equities Exhibit 1: YTD YoY growth and market share performance of two-wheeler players Domestic motorcycles Domestic scooters Domestic two-wheeler volume OEMs YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) YTDFY17* YTDFY18* YoY (%) Hero MotoCorp 19,43,687 21,45,491 10.4 2,83,316 2,77,159 (2.2) 22,27,003 24,22,648 8.8 HMSI 5,61,141 6,72,828 19.9 11,06,284 13,17,610 19.1 16,67,425 19,90,438 19.4 TVS Motor 2,77,495 3,01,158 8.5 2,48,509 3,38,723 36.3 8,18,195 8,93,963 9.3 Bajaj Auto 7,23,204 5,91,477 (18.2) - - - 7,23,204 5,91,477 (18.2) Yamaha 1,18,825 1,22,167 2.8 1,40,305 1,42,696 1.7 2,59,130 2,64,863 2.2 Suzuki India 20,402 24,794 21.5 70,826 1,18,037 66.7 91,228 1,42,831 56.6 Royal Enfield 1,95,457 2,42,039 23.8 - - - 1,95,457 2,42,039 23.8 Mahindra 7,854 1,629 (79.3) 18,157 4,436 (75.6) 26,011 6,065 (76.7) Piaggio - - - 9,249 18,838 103.7 9,249 18,838 103.7 HD Motor 1,420 1,162 (18.2) - - - 1,420 1,162 (18.2) Kawasaki 444 408 (8.1) - - - 444 408 (8.1) Triumph 471 491 4.2 - - - 471 491 4.2 Total 38,50,400 41,03,644 6.6 18,76,646 22,17,499 18.2 60,19,237 65,75,225 9.2 Market share Motorcycle market share (%) Scooter market share (%) Overall market share (%) OEMs YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change YTDFY17* YTDFY18* bps change Hero MotoCorp 50.5 52.3 180 15.1 12.5 (260) 37.0 36.8 (15) HMSI 14.6 16.4 182 59.0 59.4 47 27.7 30.3 257 TVS Motor 7.2 7.3 13 13.2 15.3 203 13.6 13.6 0 Bajaj 18.8 14.4 (437) 0.0 0.0 - 12.0 9.0 (302) Yamaha 3.1 3.0 (11) 7.5 6.4 (104) 4.3 4.0 (28) Suzuki India 0.5 0.6 7 3.8 5.3 155 1.5 2.2 66 Royal Enfield 5.1 5.9 82 - - - 3.2 3.7 43 Mahindra 0.2 0.0 (16) 1.0 0.2 (77) 0.4 0.1 (34) Piaggio - - - 0.5 0.8 36 0.2 0.3 13 HD Motor - - - - - - - - - Kawasaki - - - - - - - - - Triumph - - - - - - - - - Total 100 100 - 100 100 - 100 100 - Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research; *Note: YTD data represents Apr-July period Exhibit 2: Yearly YoY growth and market share performance of two-wheeler players Domestic motorcycles Domestic scooters Domestic two-wheeler volume OEMs FY16 FY17 YoY (%) FY16 FY17 YoY (%) FY16 FY17 YoY (%) Hero MotoCorp 56,03,106 56,93,681 1.6 8,18,777 7,89,974 (3.5) 64,21,883 64,83,655 1.0 HMSI 14,94,153 15,36,055 2.8 27,89,537 31,89,012 14.3 42,83,690 47,25,067 10.3 TVS Motor 7,12,002 7,73,141 8.6 7,73,597 8,26,342 6.8 22,09,366 24,90,001 12.7 Bajaj Auto 18,98,957 20,01,391 5.4 - - - 18,98,957 20,01,391 5.4 Yamaha 3,32,958 3,48,674 4.7 3,18,450 4,40,423 38.3 6,51,408 7,89,097 21.1 Suzuki India 92,912 69,737 (24.9) 2,20,388 2,80,783 27.4 3,13,300 3,50,520 11.9 Royal Enfield 4,98,791 6,51,107 30.5 - - - 4,98,791 6,51,107 30.5 Mahindra 60,367 14,606 (75.8) 84,064 34,308 (59.2) 1,44,431 48,914 (66.1) Piaggio - - - 26,865 41,171 53.3 26,865 41,171 53.3 HD Motor 4,708 3,690 (21.6) - - - 4,708 3,690 (21.6) Kawasaki 1,283 1,246 (2.9) - - - 1,283 1,246 (2.9) Triumph 1,139 1,174 3.1 - - - 1,139 1,174 3.1 Total 1,07,00,376 1,10,94,502 3.7 50,31,678 56,02,013 11.3 1,64,55,821 1,75,87,033 6.9 Market share Motorcycle market share (%) Scooter market share (%) Overall market share (%) OEMs FY16 FY17 bps change FY16 FY17 bps change FY16 FY17 bps change Hero MotoCorp 52.4 51.3 (104) 16.3 14.1 (217) 39.0 36.9 (216) HMSI 14.0 13.8 (12) 55.4 56.9 149 26.0 26.9 84 TVS Motor 6.7 7.0 31 15.4 14.8 (62) 13.4 14.2 73 Bajaj 17.7 18.0 29 - - - 11.5 11.4 (16) Yamaha 3.1 3.1 3 6.3 7.9 153 4.0 4.5 53 Suzuki India 0.9 0.6 (24) 4.4 5.0 63 1.9 2.0 9 Royal Enfield 4.7 5.9 121 - - - 3.0 3.7 67 Mahindra 0.6 0.1 (43) 1.7 0.6 (106) 0.9 0.3 (60) Piaggio - - - 0.5 0.7 20 0.2 0.2 7 HD Motor - - (1) - - - - - (1) Kawasaki - - - - - - - - - Triumph - - - - - - - - - Total 100 100 - 100 100 - 100 100 - Source: SIAM, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research 2 Two-wheeler Sector Institutional Equities Good start to FY18, scooters continue to gain share: Overall, the two-wheeler industry had a good start in FY18 with domestic volume growing 9.2% on YTD basis versus 2.9%/6.9% growth in FY16/17, respectively.