Climate Change Impact on Biodiversity and Its Implications For

CEU eTD Collection A thesissubmittedtotheDepartmentof Climate ChangeImpactonBiodiversityandits Central EuropeanUniversityinpartfulfillmentofthe Case studyofDashtidjumZakaznik,Tajikistan Protected AreasManagement Degree ofMasterScience Anastasiya IDRISOVA May, 2010 Budapest

Environmental SciencesandPolicyof Implications for

CEU eTD Collection Supported bytheEuropeanCommission’sErasmus MundusProgramme of Manchester(UnitedKingdom). University oftheAegean(Greece),CentralEuropeanUnivers Erasmus MundusMasterscourseinEnvironmentalSciences, This thesisissubmittedinfulfillmentoftheMasterScie MESPOM Management Environmental Sciences,Policyand Erasmus MundusMastersCoursein

nce degreeawardedasaresultofsuccessfulcompletionthe ii ity (Hungary),LundUniversity(Sweden)andthe Policy andManagement(MESPOM)jointlyoperatedbythe

CEU eTD Collection Idrisova, A.2010. Forbibliographicandreferencepurposesthisthesisshouldbereferredtoas: (3) University, whichwillprescribetheterms may notbemadeavailableforusebythirdpartieswithoutthewrittenpermissionof Theownershipofanyintellectualpropertyrigh vested intheCentralEuropeanUniversity,subj (2) of theAuthor. made inaccordancewithsuchinstructionsmaynot This pagemustformpartof lodged intheCentralEuropeanUniversityLibrar Copyrightintextofthisthesisrestswith full, orofextracts,maybemadeonlyinacco (1) Notes oncopyrightandtheownershi European University. available fromtheHeadofDepartmentEnvironmentalSciencesandPolicy,Central Further informationontheconditionsunderwhichdisclosuresandexploitationmaytakeplaceis University, Budapest. Case studyofDashtidjumZakaznik,Tajikistan. Climate changeimpactonbiodiversityandit any suchcopiesmade.Further(byprocess)of p ofintellectualpropertyrights: and conditionsofanysuchagreement. rdance withinstructionsgivenbytheAuthorand iii ect toanyprioragreementthecontrary,and Master ofSciencethesis,CentralEuropean

y. DetailsmaybeobtainedfromtheLibrarian. the Author.Copies(byanyprocess)eitherin bemadewithoutthepermission(inwriting) ts whichmaybedescribedinthisthesisis s implicationsforprotectedareasmanagement: CEU eTD Collection for anotherdegreeorqualificationofthisany No portionoftheworkreferredtointhisthesis Author’s declaration iv hasbeensubmittedinsupportofanapplication other universityorinstituteoflearning.

Anastasiya IDRISOVA

CEU eTD Collection Keywords: expansion oftheprotectedarea,andestablishment ofbufferzonesandmigrationcorridors. mitigation oftheclimatechange prerequisites fortheimplementationofadap invasive species.Anassessmentofnationalpolic zakaznik important forconservation,migrationofsome vulnerability assessmenthasshownpotentialpopu flora andfauna,withafocusonrareendang as wellspeciesvulnerabilityandadaptiverespons mean temperaturesandanomaliesinprecipitation. assumptions andobservations.Ananalysisofmeteo been analyzedfollowingtheDPSIRapproach The currentandpotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonthebiodiversity vulnerable reservesrichinbiodiversity– biodiversity, andexploresclimatechangeim adaptation measures.ThisthesisfocusesonTajik biodiversity conservation,andrequirereview pose variouschallengesforadequatemanagement to shiftsintheirgeographicaldistributionand ecosystems havealreadybeenobservedworldwide become thedominantdirectdriverforlo Climate changeisanunequivocalglobalproblem implications forprotectedareasmanagement:Case for thedegreeofMasterScienceandentitl Anastasiya IDRISOVA ABSTRACT OFTHESIS , extinctionsofsomespeciesandincreases climatechange,biodiversity,protectedar measures, Tajikistan,DashtidjumZakaznik CENTRAL EUROPEANUNIVERSITY submittedby: impactsonthebiodiversityof Dashtidjum Zakaznik

ed: Climatechangeimpactonbiodiversityandits pacts onthebiodiversityofonemost v ss ofbiodiversity.Itsimpactsonspeciesand of conservationgoalsandimplementation tation measuresthatmaycontributetothe extinction.Speciesadaptiveresponses,inturn, ered species,andallrepresentedecosystems.A and basedonup-to-dateknowledge,experts’

speciesnorthwardsoutsidetheareaof studyofDashtidjumZakaznik,Tajikistan that hasmanynegativeconsequencesandcan ies andstrategieshasidentifiedanumberof Themainfactorsofclimatechangeimpacts, istan asamountainouscountrywithunique and varyfromspeciesphenologicalchanges, es, havebeenidentifiedforthemaintaxaof in populationsizesforotherspecies,mainly rological datahasconfirmedanincreaseof of protectedareasthatplayakeyrolein lation declineforthemajorityofspecies Month andYearofSubmission:May,2010. eas, vulnerabilityassessment,adaptation . Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik . Theyinclude have

CEU eTD Collection have beenanenormousand precioussupportforme,asalways.Thankyou! patience, andsorryforleaving youfortwoyears. complete thisprogram!MybelovedTimurand much foryourloveandsupport,surely Last, butnotleast,Iamverygratefultomy Thank youallandstayintouch! remember ourdinners,chats,walks,greendr Thank youmydearclassmatesforsharingwith Khisrav, DilovarandOlim! thesis researchandhavebeenpatienttomy I amgratefultomyfriendsandcolleaguesin Irina, KrisztaandGunillafortheirconstanthelpthathasmadeourstudentlifemucheasier. and positiveatmosphereduringthestudyprocess.I environment protectionandhelpingtogainnewskills Manchester notonlyforsharingtheirknowledgean I amgratefultoallprofessorsfromCEU,IIIE Nadjmidinov. Thankyouforyourcontributions! Murodov, Dr.NuriddinMuminov,Mr.IvanZagrebelnyi,Ustjan,andTojiddin Asanova, Dr.RakhmatulloSattorov,Saidakhm appreciate theassistanceofProf.KhurshedKarimov,Dr.AbdusattorSaidov,Ms.Valentina especially gratefultoDr.NeimatulloSafarov have foundtimeintheirbusyschedulesandpr This workwouldnotbepossiblewithoutthea consultations andassistance. research. IamalsogratefultoMs.EszterTima constructive feedbackandsupportthathasalways I amsincerelythankfultomysupervisorPr Ruben Mnatsakanian,forthecontinuedsupportandoverallguidance. gratitude totheCEUDepartmentofEnvironmen for thepossibilitytobepartofgreates First ofall,IwouldliketothanktheMESPOM Acknowledgements family. MydearestMomandDad,thankyouvery for hiscontinuedsupportandtrust.Ialsohighly numerouscallsandemails.ThankyouNailya, vi of. BrandonAnthonyforthevaluableadvice, Tajikistan whohavegreatlyhelpedmewiththe t programever.Ialsowouldliketoexpressmy ConsortiumanditscoordinatorDr.AlehCherp inks, andmanyotherunforgettablemoments! E, theAegeanUniversi ssistance ofthehighlyqualifiedspecialistswho r forherconstantwillingnesstohelp,valuable Polina, thankyouforyourunderstandingand methesewonderfultwoyears.Iwillalways

Thank youforyourlove and trustinme–you ovided valuableinputstomyresearch.Iam inspiredmeandallowedtocompletethis the genes,whichhavereallyhelpedmeto ad Dustov,Dr.TolibIrgashev,Rustam am alsoverythankfultothewonderfulladies d experience,introducingexcitingaspectsof tal SciencesandPolicy,inparticularProf. andinsights,butalsoforcreatingawarm ty andtheUniversityof CEU eTD Collection 2. 3. 1. Table ofContents

2.1 3.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.3 3.3 2.4 3.4 2.2 2.5 ANALYTICAL FR METHODOLOGICAL INTRODUC 2.3.1 3.3.1 2.1.1 2.2.1 2.4.1 3.2.2 3.2.1 2.3.2 3.3.2 2.1.2 2.2.2 2.4.2 2.3.3 2.4.3

G S B M O O S D L D L S G S COPE ANDLIMITATIONS COPE ANDLIMITATIONS ITE SELECTION UMMARY OCAL SCENE OCAL SCENE ACKGROUND

ATA ANALYSIS ATA COLLECTION LOBAL SCENE LOBAL SCENE UTLINE OFTHESTUDY BJECTIVES ANDRESEARCHQUESTIONS ETHODOLOGY Biodiversity overview...... DPSIR approach...... Climate changepressuresonbiodiversity...... vriwo h mat ...... Overview oftheimpacts Observations andforecast...... Expert interviews...... Archival reviews...... Protected areas...... nlsso eerlgcldt ...... Analysis ofmeteorologicaldata Species responsestoclimatechange...... Management responses...... lmt hneadboiest ...... Climate changeandbiodiversity oiyadohrmaue ...... Policy andothermeasures Policy measures...... IN...... 1 ...... TION : :

...... C B : : ......

IODIVERSITY ANDPROTECTED AREAS IN LIMATE CHANGE IN ...... C C AMEWORK...... 7 ...... LIMATE CHANGE ANDPROTECTED AREAS LIMATE CHANGE ANDBIODIVERSITY ...... RMWR ...... 32 ...... FRAMEWORK ...... 6 ...... 40 ...... 5 T AJIKISTAN ...... 4 vii

...... 25 ...... 7 T AJIKISTAN ...... 11 ...... 16 ...... 18 ...... 30 ...... 29 ...... 34 ...... 16 ...... 35 ...... 36 ...... 11 ...... 26 ...... 12 ...... 21 ...... 37 ...... 9 ...... 1 ...... 27 ...... 35 ...... 33 ...... 8 ...... 5 33

CEU eTD Collection 4. 5.

4.1 5.2 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.5 5.4 4.6 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTOF NEEDS ANDCAPACITIESFOR 4.3.2 4.3.1 4.4.1 5.3.1 4.6.2 4.6.1 4.5.1 4.5.3 4.5.2 4.2.1 4.3.3 4.3.5 4.3.4 5.3.2 4.4.2 4.6.4 4.6.3 4.5.4 4.2.2 5.3.3 4.4.3 4.5.5 5.3.4 4.5.6 4.5.7

D N C P I F F E S S MPLICATIONS FOR UMMARY UMMARY REREQUISITES FORADAPTATIONMEASURES LORA VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE CHANGE AUNA VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE CHANGE LIMATE CHANGE IN COSYSTEMS VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE TO CLIMATE COSYSTEMS VULNERABILITY

ASHTIDJUM ATURAL ADAPTATION CAPACITIES OF Birds...... Mammals Vulnerability ofdifferentfloratypes...... Possibilities forexpansion...... Fauna vulnerability...... Climate change...... Nival ecosystems...... Mid-mountain coniferforest...... High mountainmeadowsandsteppes...... oenciae...... Modern climate Reptiles...... Invertebrates...... Other vertebrates Increasing connectivity...... Endemic andendangeredspecies...... cssesvleaiiy...... Ecosystems vulnerability Flora vulnerability...... Mid-mountain mesophylicforest...... aeo lmt hne...... Rate ofclimatechange aaeeto arxae ...... Management ofmatrixarea ...... Wild relativesofculturalplants i-onanxrpyi oet...... Mid-mountain xerophyticforest Other measures...... Savannoid ecosystems...... Agricultural ecosystems...... Z AKAZNIK D ASHTIDJUM D ASHTIDJUM AREA ...... 41 Z ADAPTATION AKAZNIK MANAGEMENT DASHTIDJUM D ...... 44 ASHTIDJUM viii

...... 64 ...... 99 ...... 48 ESRS...... 96 MEASURES...... 77 Z AKAZNIK AANK...... 41 ...... ZAKAZNIK ...... 96 ...... 97 ...... 56 ...... 59 ...... 62 ...... 90 ...... 106 ...... 49 ...... 90 ...... 78 ...... 61 ...... 93 ...... 104 ...... 44 ...... 103 ...... 91 ...... 99 ...... 45 ...... 87 ...... 89 ...... 94 ...... 81 ...... 73 ...... 66 ...... 70 ...... 82 ...... 103 ...... 85 ...79

CEU eTD Collection APPEND REFERENCES...... 6.

A 6.1 A A A A A A A A A A A 6.2 A A NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX NNEX CONCLUSIONS ANDRE

C R ECOMMENDATIONS ONCLUSIONS CS...... ICES 4. 3. 2. 1. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5.

D D D S L L C P L

T S D D D AMPLE TABLEFORINTERVIEWS ROTECTED AREAS OF AREAS ROTECTED IST OFSAMPLEQUESTIONS IST OFINTERVIEWEES IST OFENDANGERED SPECIES IN LIMATE CHANGEPATTERNSIN ASHTIDJUM ASHTIDJUM ISTRIBUTION OFKEY ENDANGERED ANIMALSPECIES UMMARY OFCLIMATECHANGE AXONOMIC NOMENCLATURE OFMAIN ASHTIDJUM ISTRIBUTION OFKEYWILDRELATIVESCULTURALPLANTS ISTRIBUTION OFKEY ENDANGERED PLANTSPECIES ...... Z Z Z AKAZNIK AKAZNIK AKAZNIK ...... 110 COMMENDATIO T ...... 126 AJIKISTAN : :

S S :

W PECIES LISTED IN IN PECIES LISTED THE IN PECIES LISTED ...... 127 ILD RELATIVES OF CULTURALPLANTS ...... 128 T IMPACTS ONANIMALSPECIES AJIKISTAN T ...... 123 AJIKISTAN ix

D S...... 108 NS ASHTIDJUM SPECIES ...... 125 T AJIK ...... 122 IUCN R ED ED ...... 134 ...... 129

D R ED ED ATA L IST B ...... 139 ...... 137 ...... 135 OOK ...... 130 ...... 136 ...... 131 ...... 108 .....122 ....112

CEU eTD Collection Table 4-1.Averageclimateparametersofthestud ...... 37 Table 3-2.Vulnerabilityassessmentframework Table 3-1.Thesismethodologicalframework...... 32 Table 2-1.ProtectedareasofTajikistanbycategory..... List ofTables Table 4-2.Monthlyprecipitationanomaliesinmi x d-mountain areasofTajikistan...... 46 y areain1961-1987...... 44

...... 20

CEU eTD Collection Figure 2-1.SpeciesdiversityinTajikistan...... List ofFigures iue22 rtce ra fTjksa ...... Figure 2-2.ProtectedareasofTajikistan Figure 4-2.DiverselandscapesofDashtidjumZakazn Figure 4-1.LocationandphysicalmapofDashtidjumZakaznik...... 42 Figure 3-2.Comparisonofprecipitationpatterns...... 39 Figure 3-1.Comparisonofairtemperaturepatterns...... 38 Figure 4-9.Indianporcupine...... Figure 4-8.Urial...... Figure 4-7.Markhor...... Figure 4-6.Siberianibex...... Figure 4-5.FaunadiversityinDashtidjumZakaznik...... 48 Figure 4-4.Annualprecipitationanomaliesinmid- Figure 4-3.Annualairtemperatureanomaliesin Figure 4-12.Eduard’sfritillary...... Figure 4-11.Superiortulip Figure 4-10.DiversityofvascularplantsDashtidjumZakaznik...... 65 Figure 4-16.Fragmentsofmid-mountainconiferfore ...... 77 Figure 4-15.EcosystemsofDashtidjumZakaznik ...... 75 Figure 4-14.Wild-growingcommonpomegranate Figure 4-13.Bukharianalmond...... Figure 4-18.FloweringGriffit’sredbud...... Figure 4-17.Fragmentsofmesophylicmapleforests... Figure 4-20.FloweringJunobucharica...... Figure 4-19.Pistachiotrees...... Figure 4-22.Fruitgardennearthevillage...... 88 Figure 4-21.Savannoidecosystemusedasapasture Permissions fromcopyright holdershavebeenobtainedforallthepictures used inthethesis. 102 Figure 5-1.Econetelements ofDashtidjumZakaznik...... Figure 4-23.Wildalmondnurserynearthevillage...... 89 xi i-onanaes...... 46 mid-mountain areas

mountain areas...... 47 t...... 81 st ik...... 43 ...... 83 ...... 52 ...... 51 ...... 51 ...... 71 ...... 85 ...... 71 ...... 52 ...... 75 ...... 17 .....20 .....85 .....89 ....88

CEU eTD Collection List ofAbbreviations al metersabovesealevel pers.comm personal communication masl ha hectares World WideFundforNature WorldMeteorologicalOrganization WWF WorldConservation MonitoringCentre WMO WCMC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventionforClimateChange UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme UNFCCC UNEP UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UNECE StateCommitteeforEnvironmentProtectionandForestry UNDP SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity SCEPF StateAdministrationforHydrometeorology SCBD ReducingEmissions fromDeforestationandForestDegradation SAH REDD NationalBiodiversityStrategyandActionPlan NGO Non-governmental NationalBiodiversityandBiosafetyCenter NBSAP organization NationalEnvironmentalActionPlan NBBC Marine ProtectedAreas NEAP InternationalUnionforConservationofNature MPA IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange IUCN GeographicInformationSystem IPCC GlobalEnvironmentFacility GIS ElectronicLibraryInformationNavigator GEF EuropeanEnvironmentAgency ELIN EEA ConventiononBiologicalDiversity DPSIR Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response CBD

xii

CEU eTD Collection change impacts. planning andmanagement toensurebiodiversity climate changeadaptationmeasureshavetobe triggered byclimatechangeimpacts(Mawdsley thereby couldnotrespondtothedynamicchan protected areanetworkshavebeendevelopedto the conservationofrepresentativeecosystemsan challenge forprotectedareasmanagement,questioni Possessing acriticalthreattobiodiversityand ecosystems withmanymorefar-reachingeffects(Walther rise ofglobalmeantemperaturewilllikewisedrive lower thanthepaceofclimatechan latitudes andelevationsseekingthesuitableclimates climate changebytemporalshifts leading totheirdisruptionandlossofbiodiversity(Rosenzweig associated disturbances,likeflooding,wildfireanddrought,increasesecosystemsvulnerability et al. dominant directdriverforthelossofvaluableeco Such rapidrateofthetemperatureincreasehas temperature shiftsexperiencedinthepast740,000years(Fischlin instance landusechange,continueatorabovecurrentrates.Thiswouldbeamongthehighest 2099 mightreachupto6.4°C,ifgreenhousega 2007). Scenariosdevelopedby warming trendof0.13°Cperdecade,whichistwi the globalmeansurfacetemperaturehasincreasedby0.76°Cfrom1850to2000,withalinear its fourthassessmentreport,theIntergovernment increase inglobalmeanseaandairtemperatures, Climate changeisanunequivocalglobalproblem 1.1 Background 1. Introduction 2003;Guariguata2008).Changeintemperatu the IPCCprojectthatincreaseofglobalmeantemperatureby oflife-cycleevents,shifts ge (ParmesanandYohe2003;Thomas s emissionsandotheranthropogenicchanges,for many negativeconsequencesandcanbecomethe 1 etal. developedandintegratedintoprotectedareas ges inecosystemcompositionanddistribution

al PanelonClimateChange(IPCC)statedthat that hasbeenconfirmedbyobservationsofan ecosystems, climatechangerepresentsareal ice meltingandsealevelrise(IPCC2007).In systems andtheirservicesatgloballevel(Root significant evolutionarychangesinspeciesand conservation, aswell mitigation ofclimate d endangeredspecies(Scott2004).Existing protectstaticpatternsofbiodiversity,and , andbyextinctionsiftheadaptivecapacityis ce thatrecordedforthelastcentury(IPCC ng theadequacyofcurrentprotectedareasin 2009).Newmanagementapproachesand re andprecipitationregimes,alongwith etal. 2002). et al. et al. distribution rangestohigher 2007). 2007). Speciesrespondto etal. 2004).Further CEU eTD Collection 13,000 species,including800endemicspecies(Safarov communities promotedthedevelopmentofarichfauna,whichisrepresentedbymorethan to subtropicalandtropicaldeserts(NBBC2003 endemic plants,and20typesofvegetationthat flora species,includingnearly1,000speciesof a scalefoundnowhereelseintheworld(Krever relic speciesandwildrelativesofcultivatedpl the formationofaconsiderable endemism (Safarov despite itssmalllandareaischaracterizedbyari This paperfocusesonclimatechangeimpacts (Makhmadaliev degradation andlossof species,inparticular (Makhmadaliev decade), accordingtotheprojectionsof the IPCCmodels(Christensen temperature couldbe3.7°Conaveragebytheend connected naturaldisasters(Makhmadaliev in precipitationpatterns,andtheintensityan the lastsixtyyears,withlinearwarmingtrend zones (Makhmadaliev Climate changehasalreadybeenobservedinmost Tajikistan andmayconsiderablyincreasethelossofuniquespecies. 1990; Mkanda1996).Climatechangetherefore climate change,andhavefewerchancesforsuccessfuladaptationtoitsimpacts(Millsap (Safarov poaching, 3animaland16plantspecieshavealre species arethreatenedbypopulationdeclinean 2003). Asaresult,ecosystemsaredegradingan habitat modificationandfragmentation resulting mainlyfromanthropogenicactivities, Similarly toothercountries,therichbiodiversity etal. 2003).Speciesaffectedbyanthropogenicacti etal. etal. et al. 2003b). 2008).Takingintoaccountthese etal. 2003).Specificmountainclimaticconditionsandisolationhaveenabled 2008).Thesurfacemeantemperaturehasincreasedby0.3-1.2°Cfor etal. number ofspeciesglobalsignificancerepresentedbyendemic, 2007),orby0.2-0.4°Ctheendof2030(0.1-0.2°C per etal. environmental pollution(NBBC2003;Safarov ants (NBBC2009).ThelatteroccurinTajikistanon State AdministrationforHydrometeorology(SAH) range frombroadleafforestsandborealmeadows 2 including unsustainableuseofnaturalresources, ch anduniquebiodiversity,withahighdegreeof etal. of Tajikistanisexperiencingdifferentpressures, rareandendangered species isquitehigh ady disappearedfromtheterritoryofTajikistan of 0.1-0.2°Cperdecade.Therearealsochanges

d losingtheirdiversityandfunctionality, d extinction.Duetohabitatdestructionand wild relativesofcultivatedplantsand1,132 2003b;2008).Thefurtherincreaseofthe d frequencyofextremeweathereventsand poses arealthreatforthebiodiversityof biodiversity ofTajikistan–thecountrythat of 2099(0.3-0.4°Cperdecade)accordingto ). Thediversityofecosystemsandplant areasofTajikistan,includinghighaltitude 1998).Tajikistanishomefornearly10,000 et al. projections, theprobabilityofecosystem vities alsobecomemorevulnerableto 2003). etal. etal.

CEU eTD Collection It isevidentthatthethreatfromclimatechange the highaltitudemeadowsinnorther country’s territoryandrepresentsalmostallecosystemsrarespecies(Safarov conservation, includingthedevelopmentofpr The GovernmentofTajikistanhasundertaken development ofadaptationmeasures. than vulnerabilityofcertainspecieswithinpa available studiesfocusongeneralissuesofbiodiversityvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,rather of researchonthepotentialimpactsclimate climate change,aswellthemainfactorsofthei turn, requirescomprehensiveresearchforunders consequences andpreventionofirreversiblelo and urgesimplementationofadaptationmeasur invasive speciesandanincreasednumberofpestinfestations(Makhmadaliev water inreservoirsthatcreatedunfavourable Experts alsoclaimedreductionof for theextinctionofendemicspeciesMenzber’smarmot( In particular,increaseofmeantemperatureand adaptive capacity(Makhmadaliev Mountain ecosystemsofTajikistanareespecially the mostvulnerablereserves richinbiodiversity– vulnerability toclimatechange bystudyingclim on thebiodiversityofTajikistanandfillexis intended tocontributethemitigationofne climate changeimpactonecosystemswithaspecial document alsostipulatesasaprioritymeasure the NationalActionPlanforMitiga Meanwhile, theimportanceofassessingclimatech implications forprotectedareas,whichplayan documents considertheclimatechangeimpacts biodiversity conservationandprotectedareasma addition, anumberofnationalstrategiesand etal. thepopulationofseveralfishspeciesduetowarming 2003b);andhasalreadybeenaffectedbyclimatechange. tion ofClimateChange(Makhmadaliev n Tajikistanuntil1980-1990(Makhmadaliev important roleinbiodiversityconservation. conditions. Otherimpactsincludethespreadof 3 ate changeimpactsonthe change onspeciesoccurringinTajikistan.Afew melting ofsnowpatcheswereonethereasons on biodiversity,thoughtheyhaveunquestionable otected areasnetworkthatcovers22%ofthe onbiodiversityofTajikis sses. Developmentofadaptationmeasures,in need toenhancethescientificunderstandingof ting gapinresearchonspeciesandecosystems

r vulnerability.Atthesametime,thereisalack Dashtidjum Zakaznik. tanding species’andecosystems’responsesto gative consequencesofclimatechangeimpact programs havebeendevelopedtoenhance a numberofmeasurestowardsbiodiversity rticular areas,whichisimportantforthe nagement. Atthesametime,noneofthese sensitive toclimatechangeduetheirlow ange impactonbiodiversityishighlightedin focusonprotectedareas.Thisresearchis es aimedatmitigationofitsnegative Marmota menzbieri tan isalreadytangible biodiversity ofone etal. etal. 2008). ) thatinhabited et al. 2003b).The etal. 2003).In 2008). CEU eTD Collection adaptation measuresareapplicable forallprotectedareasinTajikistan. the resultsofanalysisnationalpolicies relevant forotherprotectedareasofTajikistan the researchisfocusedon only toscientistsandprotectedareasmanagers, biodiversity conservationandclimatechangemiti The resultsofthisresearchcontributetothe implementationofnationalstrategieson The followingmainquestionshavebeenaddressedandconstitutedthebasisforthisresearch: objectives: the biodiversityofTajikistan,and The overallgoalofthisresearchistocontri Objectivesandresearchquestions 1.2 ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ

management, andhowcantheybemanaged? adaptation measurestoclimatechange. How doesclimatechangeaffectdiffe What aretheconsequencesfromclimatechan biodiversity conservationcontributeto How cannationalpoliciesandprograms Zakaznik What aretheclimatechangetrendsonterritoryof Identify implementation ofadaptationmeasures. Analyze changes intheirstateunderanalteredclimate. including fauna,floraandecosystems,toclimatechangeimpacts Assess Dashtidjum Zakaznik Analyze implicationsforprotectedareasmanagementandd vulnerability ofdifferentcomponentsbiodiversity meteorological dataand , includingfauna,floraandecosystems? relevant nationalpoliciesandprograms Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Dashtidjum Zakaznik identify bute tothemitigationofclimatechangeimpactson implementation ofadaptationmeasures? , theresultsofitsvulnerabilityassessmentmaybe 4 rent componentsofbiodiversity with similarspeciesandecosystems.Meanwhile, but alsotopolicyanddecisionmakers.Though and programsidentifiedprerequisitesfor

climatechangetrendsontheterritoryof gation. Thereforetheyma ge impactonbiodiversitytoprotectedareas on protectedareas,climatechange,and inparticular,bypursuingthefollowing Dashtidjum Zakaznik evelop identify recommendations for Dashtidjum Zakaznik prerequisitesfor y beofinterestnot identify ? Dashtidjum potential , CEU eTD Collection induced impactsonbiodiversity suchashabitatmo cover climatechangeimpacts onhumansocial Dashtidjum Zakaznik employs acasestudyapproachtogainco This researchisafirststepinanalyzingclima Scopeandlimitations 1.4 of based onMsExcelandSPSSsoftwarewereemployedtoanalyzeclimatechangetheterritory problem fromdifferentangles.Inadditiontoth several aspectsofbiodiversityvulnerabilityto implementation ofothertypesanalysisdiffi to thelackofquantitativeandqualitativedataonbiodiversitytrendsinTajikistan,whichmakes Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR)assessmen Data analysiswasmainlybasedonqualitative and conservationmeasures. impacts ofclimatechangeonbiodiversity Tajikistan arequitelimited.Interviewsalsoallo obtain requireddata,aspublishedmaterials Interviewing expertsnotonlyprovidedadditional academic, government,intergovernmental,inter Archival reviewsinvolvedreviewofpublicati impacts withhighsignificanceforbiodiversityconservation. research’s focuson change, dataavailabilityandsitesignificanceforbiodiversityconservation,resultedinthis site selectionwasbasedonareview comprehensive explorationwith data analysis.Acasestudyapproachwaschosen meteorological dataandqualitativevulnerabili archival reviewsandinterviewsfordatacoll This researchisbasedonacombinationofco 1.3 Methodology Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Italsofocusesonlyon climate chan , aswellfortheselectionofrepresentativemeteorological data. a varietyofdatacollectionandanalysisprocedures.Thestudy of anumbercriteria,includingsensitivitytoclimate as oneofthemostvulnerablereservestoclimatechange mprehensive viewontheissueandonlyfocuses on te changeimpactsonprotectedareasinTajikistan. It Dashtidjum Zakaznik, ty assessmentbasedontheDPSIRapproachfor ons andmaterialsfromvarioussources,suchas mplementary methodsandapproachesincluding cult. TheDPSIRapproachallowedfocusingon 5 on climatechangeimpactsbiodiversityof assessment andfollowedthesimplifiedDriver- and economicaspects,as wellasotherhuman- wed obtainingexperts’reflectionsonpotential ection, quantitativemethodsforanalysisof e descriptiveanalysis,thequantitativemethods national andnon-governmentalorganizations.

totackletheresearchproblemandensureits climate changeandaddressingtheresearch dification andpoaching.The researchalsodid t framework.Thisapproachwaschosendue insights intotheissue,butalsohelpedto ge impactsonbiodiversity anddoesnot andidentifyingpriorityissues CEU eTD Collection of themethodsemployed,aswellscopeandlimitationsthisresearch. background fortheresearchandintroducesitsgo The thesisconsistsofsixchaptersandstarts Outlineofthestudy 1.5 experienced expertsintherelevantfields,whichprovidedadditionalcredibilitytoitsresults. various assumptions.Atthesametime,itwas research waslimitedbylackofmonitoringda focuses onspecies-climateinteractionsanddoes species underprotectionandofglobalimporta not intendtoanalyzealltaxathatinhabit and mitigationofclimate change impacts. the mainfindingsofresearchandprovid implementation ofclimatechangeadaptationmeasur and reviewsnationalprogramsstrategiesin management, providesabriefassessmentofthenatural adaptationcapacityofthe concludes withashortsummary. components ofitsbiodiversity,includingfauna, the territoryof brief introductiontothe vulnerability assessmentof The fourthchapter justification oftheirselection.Italsodescribesth framework ofthisresearchandprovidesanov strategies andprogramsdevotedtotheseissues. provides anoverviewofitsbiodiv change impactsonbiodiversity.Thesecondsecti areas managementalongwiththeadaptationstra also summarizesspeciesresponsestoclimatech with theoverviewofclimatechangetrendsandit constitutes theanalyticalframeworkforresear Dashtidjum Zakaznik constitutesthemainpartofrese zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik itself.Itisfollowedbytheanalysisofclimatechangetrendson ersity, protectedareas,climatechangetrends,aswellnational , andananalysisoftheclimatechangeimpactsonmain The fifthchapter Dashtidjum Zakaznik es recommendationsforbiodiversityconservation ta andthusreliesbothonexistingknowledge supported bytheopinionofhighlyqualifiedand 6 erview ofthemethodsemployedalongwith from theintroductionthatpresentsoverall . Itconsistsoffivesectionsandstartsfromthe e scopeoftheresearchanditsmainlimitations. ange andintroducesimplicationsforprotected tegies developedworldwidetomitigateclimate

flora andalltypesofecosystems.Thechapter s impactsonbiodiversityin on ofthechapterisfocusedTajikistanand The thirdchapter al andobjectives.Italsoprovidesanoverview notconsiderinterspeciesinteractions.The terms oftheirpotentialcontributiontothe ch. Itisdividedintotwosectionsandstarts identifiesimplicationsforprotectedareas es. Thethesisisconcludedbyasummaryof nce. Beingafirststepresearch,itprimarily arch andintroducestheresultsof ,

but mainlyfocusedonendangered introducesthemethodological aglobalcontext.It The secondchapter zakaznik itself,

CEU eTD Collection experienced inthepast740,000 years(Fischlin change, continueatorabove currentrates.This to 6.4°C,ifgreenhousegasemissionsandothe developed bytheIPCCprojectthatincreaseof of thelasttwelveyearsglobalsurfacetempera is twicethatrecordedforthelastcentury(IPCC increased by0.76°Cfrom1850to2000,withalin In itsfourthassessmentreport,theIPCCstated (Chaytor rate, contributestoglobalwarming,inturn which ishappeningatanestimatedrateonehund in turnaffectclimatebothatlocalandgloballeve ability ofecosystemstocaptureandstorecarbon social values(MEA2005).Biodiversityalsoplays human livesbyprovidingdifferentgoodsandserv species, betweenspeciesandofecosystems(SCBD2000 Biodiversity isdefinedasthevariabilityamong Globalscene:Climatechangeandbiodiversity 2.1 mitigation. Thechapterisconcludedbyasummary. programs devotedtobiodiversityconservation, change trends,includingobservationsandproj Tajikistan andprovidesanoverviewofitsbi impacts ofclimatechangeonbiodiversity.Th management alongwiththeadaptationstrategie summarizes speciesresponsestoclimatechangeandintroducesimplicationsforprotectedareas the overviewofclimatechangetrendsandimpacts components oftheresearchanalysis.Thechapteris date informationobtainedfromthevariousliteraturesources,butalsoidentifiesmain This chapterconstitutestheanalyticalframework 2. Analytical Framework etal. 2002). affecting livingorganismsandenhancingtheloss etal. odiversity, protectedareasnetworkandclimate global meantemperatureby2099mightreachup 7 protected areasmanagementandclimatechange wouldbeamongthehighest temperatureshifts r anthropogenicchanges,forinstancelanduse ections. Italsoreviewsnationalstrategiesand thattheglobalmeansurfacetemperaturehad e secondpartofthechapterisfocusedon

ture hasbeenthewarmestonrecord.Scenarios for theresearch.Itnotonlypresentsup-to- 2007). Accordingtothesamereport,ineleven ear warmingtrendof0.13°Cperdecade,which dioxide andratesofevapotranspiration,which a directroleinclimateregulationaffectingthe ls (Guariguata2008).Thelossofbiodiversity, s developedworldwidetomitigatenegative red timeshigherthanthenaturalbackground 2007). living organisms,includingdiversitywithin dividedintotwomainpartsandstartswith onbiodiversityinaglobalcontext.Italso ices, andthroughitsintrinsic,cultural ). Itplaysanimportantroleinsustaining CEU eTD Collection SCBD 2009). the changesinatmosphericandoceanicconcentr phenological changes(Thomas 2009), e)desynchronizationofdispersalevents species, andappearanceofnewpredatorsan Felton al. 2009; SCBD2009),b)lossofhabitatsduetoth suitable habitatsduetothechangeoftempera The mainwaysclimatechangeaffectsbiodiver on biodiversityremainpoorlyunderstood(AuldandKeith2009). (Felton communities andecosystems(Omann changing thephenologyoforganisms(Walther then ithasbeenestablishedthatclimatechange Rica (IUCN2010b). vertebrate species,includingthegoldentoad( 2004; Fischlin human activitiesonbiodiversitywerepublishedmorethan20yearsago(Felton observations worldwide.Thefirstresearchpape Biodiversity isalreadybeingaffectedbyclima Climatechangepressuresonbiodiversity 2.1.1 than inrecentgeologicalpastandupto20 increase ofglobalmeansurfacetemperatureexceeds biodiversity andecosystemservices(Schneider over one-fifthofEarth’secosystems,and loss ofbiodiversity.Anincreaseglobalmean flooding, wildfireanddrought,increasesecosys 2008). Changeintemperatureandprecipitationregi driver forthelossofbiodiversi By theendofthiscentury,climatechangean 2009),c)increasedfrequencyandintensityof etal. etal. 2009;Willis 2009),d)disruptionofcommunitiesas etal. 2007).Climatechangehasalreadyb etal. 2009).Atthesametime,manypo etal. ty andvaluableecosystemservicesatthegloballevel(Guariguata 2004;AuldandKeith2009),f)changeofgrowth ratedueto etal. -30% ofspeciescouldbecomeextinct(Thomas 2009),andcausingshiftsofspeciesdistributions d competitors(AuldandKeith2009;Walther te change,whichhasbeenconfirmedbynumerous Bufo periglenes warming above3°Cwillcausefurtherlossof etal. e riseofsealevel(AuldandKeith2009;Omann d itsimpactscouldbecomethedominantdirect tems’ vulnerabilityleadingtotheirdisruptionand temperatureby3°Cwillcausetransformationof 8 ture andprecipitationregimes(AuldKeith sity canbesummarizedasfollows:a)shiftof etal. rs ontheimpactsofclimatechangecausedby isaffectingbiodiversi and otherspeciesinteractionsduetoadaptive

ation ofcarbondioxide(AuldandKeith2009; extreme weatherevents 2007).AccordingtotheIPCCreport,if mes, alongwithassociateddisturbances,like 2°C, manyspecieswillbeatagreaterrisk 2002;SCBD2009),thecompositionof a resultofthespreadinvasive,alien ) thatinhabitedcloudforestsofCosta een blamedfortheextinctionof14 tential impactsofclimatechange ty inanumberofways, (Auld andKeith2009; etal. 2009).Since etal. etal. et

CEU eTD Collection which istheultimatethreatofclimatechange(Thomas than thepaceofclimatechange,itmightleadto disperse attherequiredrate(Felton living organismsforadaptationisquitelimitedan responses orevolutionaryadaptation(Vitt changes (AuldandKeith2009).Theformercoul tolerate somedegreeofchangeand/ormigration Species responsestoclimatechangeincludeadaptation Speciesresponsestoclimatechange 2.1.2 consequences (Omann conditions, tomoderatepotentialdamagefr Species respondtotheseimpactsbyadaptation al. locations, aswelltohigher elev species distributionrange, aremovingpolewardto Keith 2009;Willis that forcespeciestoshifttheirdistributionrang Geographical distributionsofspeciesarechanging breeding performance(LeechandCrick2007;Rosenzweig peak offooddemandforreproducinganimalsan species interactions,e.g.relationshipswithcompetitors andherbivores,mistimingbetweenthe to populationdeclines(LeechandCrick2007;SC the adaptationnatureofthesechanges,theypose of springeventsby2.5daysperd et al. including leafunfolding,flowering,migrationa Phenological changesaremoreoftendemonstra to naturaladaptation,whiletheplannedadaptationismainfocusofsection2.2.2. of climatechange(IPCC2002;Heino mediated adaptation,whichisproactiveandrelates species responsesafterclimatechangeimpactshavebeenrealizedandb)plannedorhuman- divided intotwotypes:a)autonomousornaturalad 2009;Vitt 2006;Lepetz etal. etal. etal. 2010).Ananalysisof99 speciesofbirds,butterfliesandalpineherbs has etal. 2009;SCBD2009).Studieshaveal 2009).Ithasbeenobservedthathabitatsofmany species,andthus 2009;Vitt ecade (ParmesanandYohe2003;Feehan ations (ThomasandLennon 1999;Heino etal. etal. etal. 2009;Omann etal. 2009).Thenextsectionde 2010).AccordingtotheIPCC,adaptationcouldbe rrival, egglayingandbreeding(Crick2004;Araujo 9 decreaseofpopulationsandspeciesextinctions, 2010).Itshouldbenotedthatthecapacityof e trackingregionsofsuitableclimate(Auldand om climatechangeandtocopewiththe d includechangeofphenologyorphysiological ted bythetemporalshif

d seasonalpeakinfoodabundance,andlower to amoresuitablelocationinresponsethe a numberofthreatstospeciesandcouldlead totheconservationofbiodiversityinface d manyspecieswillnothavethecapacityto as aresultofrapidshiftsinsuitablehabitats BD 2009).Thesethreatsincludechangein higherlatitudesandaltitudes fromcurrent aptation, whichisreactiveandrelatestothe mechanisms, tryingtoadjustchanging etal. etal. etal. in situ ready confirmedasignificantadvance 2009).Iftheadaptationrateisslower 2004;Brook 2007;AuldandKeith2009). asaresultoftheircapacityto als withresponsesrelated etal. etal. ts oflife-cycleevents, etal. 2008). 2009).Inspiteof 2009;Omann et

CEU eTD Collection habitat modificationand fragmentation(Birdlife Climate changeimpacton biodiversityisexacerba easier spreadofdiseasesandpeststhatmightreproduce faster(Omann reduced diversityofnativespecies(Walther This oftenleadstothetransformationofecosy ecosystems havebecomelessresistanttoinvasive could notpreviouslypersist.Ithasbeennoticed benefit fromclimatechangebybeingenabled pathogens isyetanotherthreat Expansion ofinvasivespeciesandexposure events (Omann 2009). Smallpopulationsareinparticulardanger, events (e.g.fires,floods,drought)thatposea (Omann coastal wetlandsandcoralreefs,whichhavealread of sealevel(AuldandKeith2009).Themost disruption ofecosystemservices.Onethemis climate-driven factorsthatrestrictautonom Besides naturallimitationintheadaptivecapa Rosenzweig live togetherinanecosystemareun ability ofdifferentspeciesvaries,thecomposition in someareasanddeclineothers(Rosenzweig general, becauseoftheshifts,populationsizesand in flatareaspresentedbyfloodedgr mountainous biomesduetoalargechangeintemperatureatdifferentelevations;andthehighest landscapes. Ithasbeennoticedthatthevelo Shifts indistributiondependnotonlyonspecies’ Rossi 2008). 2007), aswellmuchsmallershifts,forinstan Other studiesreportevengreatershiftsbyupto shown theaveragerangeshifttowardspoleby etal. etal. 2009).Anothercauseofspecieslossisch etal. 2007). 2009). (Auld andKeith2009;Walther asslands, mangrovesanddeserts(Loarie likely tomovesynchronously(Burgmer etal. ous adaptationandcausebiodiversityloss ce 23.9mperdecadeforalpineherbs(Paroloand direct threattolivingorganisms(AuldandKeith 10 to surviveandreproduceinregionswherethey city ofspecies,thereareanumberexternal etal. _ 23.5 kmperdecadeforbirds(HitchandLeberg stems, withadominationofalienspeciesand city oftemperaturechangeisthelowestin as theyareunlikelytobe 6.1kmperdecade(P of manyecosystemsischanging,asspeciesthat vulnerable ecosystemsinthisrespectinclude

loss ofhabitatsduetotheicemeltingandrise ted byotherhuman-induced stressors,suchas International 2008;deChazal andRounsevell speciestonewcompetitors,predatorsand 2009).Amongthepotentialconsequencesis y beensignificantlyaffectedbyclimatechange species richnessarechanging,withanincrease speciesandmoreresilienttotheirimpacts. , thatasaresultofclimatechange,native dispersal capacitybutalsovaryindifferent 2007;ParoloandRossi2008).Asdispersal ange inthefrequencyofextremeweather etal. 2009).Alienspeciesmay etal. armesan andYohe2003). replenishedaftersuch 2009). etal. etal. 2009).In 2007; CEU eTD Collection (in hectares)protectedfromadjacentstressors(Hagerman persistence ofspeciesselectedforconservationinspeci effectiveness andthusconservationsuccessisme the Earth’slandsurface(SCBD2010)and1% human-induced stressors(Hagerman primary meansofbiodiversityconservation,se 1 ecosystems (Mawdsley biodiversity maynotadequatelyrespondtothe al. landscape-level shiftsinecosystemstructure tendency tomovepolewardandhigheraltitu 2003; HellerandZavaleta2009;Scott2004).Th ecosystems withintheborders,became“Ach protected areas,suchasfixedbordersandpro protected areasmanagementandachievementof Climate changeimpactonbiodiversityandspecies oftheimpacts Overview 2.2.1 Burns biodiversity andspecificnaturalfeatures,threa Protected areas Globalscene:Climatechangeandprotectedareas 2.2 human settlement(Brook might havesuitableclimatemayalreadybemodified 2009; SCBD2009).Evenifthesp will nolongerbeviableintheareas With themagnitudeofchangescausedbyclimate change,sometargetspeciesandecosystems loss ofbiodiversity(Julliard cope withclimatechangemakingthemmoresens According toArticle 2 of the Convention onBiological Diversit is designated or regulated and managed to to managed regulatedand or is designated 2009).Protectedareasnetworksthathaveb etal. 2003;LemieuxandScott2005).Overthepa 1 havebeenestablishedaroundtheworldwithmaingoaltoprotect etal. etal. 2009;Hagerman etal. 2008).Thestressorsalsoweaken

2003). achieve specific conservation objectives” (UN1992). objectives” conservation specific achieve ecies arecapabletoshifttheirdi etal. designated fortheirprotection(Araújo 2010).Currently,protectedareascoverabout12%of etal. and distribution(LemieuxScott2005;Willis 11 illes’ heel”ofthisconservationtool(Burns 2010). tened byanthropogenicactivities(Soto2002; y (CDB), protected area is “a geographically defined area,whic defined “ageographically areais protected y (CDB), tection ofparticularspeciesassemblagesand

e mainchallengesareconnectedwithspecies dynamic natureofclimatechangeeffectson des forsuitableclimaticconditionsandthus itive toitsnegativeimpactsandleadingthe parating valuableecosystemsfromadjacent of theworld’soceans(IUCN2010e).Their een developedtoprotectstaticpatternsof conservationgoals.Characteristicsofthe responsestoitposearealchallengefor andturnedintoagriculturalland,roadsor asured byrepresentationofecosystems, fic places,aswellbythesizeofarea st 40years,protectedareashavebeenthe etal. 2010). the overallcapacityofspeciesto stribution range,theareathat

etal. 2004).Species etal. et h

CEU eTD Collection 2009; Hagerman organizations. Theyincludeassistedmigration, are morecontroversial,withvariedopini improved managementofthematrixandhabitat Mawdsley protected areasmanagementastheprimary on themainresponsesofspeciestochanging A numberofrecommendationsforadaptationstra system (IPCC2002;Hagerman policies anddevelopmentofnewconservationa existing measuresdonotrespondtothethreat change mitigation,butalsoensureproperfunctioni (Cliquet dioxide intheatmosphere,sequesteringandstoring for mitigationoftheadverseeffectsclimate measures forbiodiversityconservation.Protectionof Climate changeandincreasedpressureonbiodiv Managementresponses 2.2.2 habitats andspeciespopulationinthefuture(LemieuxScott2005). and fragmentationhindertheabilityofprotectedar adapt tonewclimaticconditions,aswelllack different factors,includingchangesinecosystemco rate ofprojectedextinctionrates infrastructure andassociatedstressors,whichthre Another challengeisthelocationofprotectedar (Heller andZavaleta2009). are thoselocatedathighlatitudesandelevations, species inprotectedareasischanging(Scott2004 ecosystem composition(Hannah might moveoutofnationalparksandreserves, etal. etal. 2009;Dudley 2009).Somestrategies,includingexpandingprotected areasnetworks,and etal. 2010).Abriefoverviewof somerecommendationsispresentedbelow. etal. etal. 2010).Effectivemeasureswoul etal. (Heller andZavaleta2009;Hole 2010). 2005).Asaresulttherepr tool forbiodiversityconservation(Velarde ons amongscientists,NGOsandinternational increasedconnectivity,andothers(Hodgson 12 s fromclimatechangeandrequireadaptationof ofsuitablehabitatsduetohabitatmodification change asitlimitstheconcentrationofcarbon eas borderingmodifiedlandscapes,withhuman environments,andwiththemainfocuson aten thesurvivalofmanyspecies,andraise and newspeciescouldmovein,changingthe as wellatlow-elevationsandincostalzones ). Amongparticularvulnerableprotectedareas

restoration, havewidespreadadoption;others ersity urgeustotakeappropriateadaptation mposition, limitedcapacityofsomespeciesto tegies havebeendevelopedworldwide,based eas tofulfilltheirdesignationandmaintain pproaches foradynamicratherthanstatic ng ofecosystemservices.Atthesametime it inforests,peatlandsandotherhabitats biodiversityitselfistheeffectivemeasure d notonlycontributetoclimate etal. esentation ofecosystemsand 2009).Acombinationof etal. 2005; etal.

CEU eTD Collection (Hannah the lossofspeciesandecosystemsrepresentati Expansion ofprotectedareasnetworkshasbeenpr Expansionofprotectedareasnetwork 2.2.2.1 chains (Halpin1997),similar tothechangesin vegetation zoneswhere changes withwarming applied forthedesignofterrestrialreserves ecosystems hasbeenlessexplored.Atthesametime without substantialbiologicalchan to recoverareferenceconditionafterbeing damaged) orresistance(capacitytowithstand marine protectedareas(MPAs),inparticularcora areas particularlyasaresponsetoclimatechange Another strategyforadaptationtoclimatechange Individualprotectedareas 2.2.2.2 substantially reduceclimatechangeimpactsonbiodiversity(Hannah2008). of challenges,includingavailabilityviableclimat Though expansionofthenetworkisnotpana rethink conservationgoalsandadjustthemtonewpopulationdynamics(Hannah revise existingnetworkstoidentifyshiftsin connectivity (Heino impact, shouldbesecuredforspeciestoensure It isbelievedthatterritoriesadjacenttoprotected until theclimaticrepresentationtargetismet(Hannah2008). with theclimaticconditionspoorlyrepresentedin is toimproverepresentationofclimaticconditi to thereservenetworkuntiltargetlevelof based onthecompensationoflostecosystemand/o Two approachesarenoteworthyregardingtheex species (Hannah maintaining biodiversityrepresentationtargetsinth supplemented withadditionalcoveragetoensur etal. 2002;Hagerman etal. etal. 2002;Hannah2008;Hodgson 2009;Hodgson etal. ge) toclimatechange.Applicationofthisstrategy to terrestrial 2010).Itisbelievedthatex etal. 2009;Hagerman species distributionsandecosystemscomposition, representation isreached(Hannah2008).Another 13 ons withinprotectedareas , inparticulartoprotectvulnerablemontane e fulfillmentoftheirconservationobjectivesand are dependentonthetopography ofmountain on withincurrentreservesandnationalparks the presenceofsufficient marine habitatduetosea-level rise.Themain pansion oftheprotectedareasnetwork.Oneis (Hannah2008).Thisconceptmostlyrefersto l reefs,andpromoteseitherresilience(capacity

ic ranges,thereissufficientevidencethatitwill cea forclimatechangeandthereareanumber areas,aswellotherareaswithlowhuman thenetwork.Inlattercase,areaisadded impactsisthedesignationofnewprotected oposed asatooltoaddresstheproblemwith etal. e faceofshiftsinthe r speciesrepresentationandaddingthearea , itisarguedthattheconceptcanalsobe 2009). etal. isting protectedareasshouldbe 2010).Itisalsoimportantto networks, addingarea distribution rangesof habitats andincrease etal. 2002). CEU eTD Collection landscapes (IUCN2004; Heino to enhancethemobility ofspeciesundersuita networks (Mawdsley This conceptalsofocusesonincreasingconnecti Developmentofmatrix areas 2.2.2.5 corridors (Hodgson expanding theprotectedareasnetworkandenhanc requires largeinvestmentsandisnotcost-effici many uncertaintiesinthequantificationof Opponents oftheconceptbelievethatitsimpor al. and willenablespeciestomovetowardssuita main ideaistocreateandmaintaindispersal between protectedareastofacilitatedispersalinresponseclimatechange(Hannah2008).The The conceptofconnectivityhasappearedfrom 2.2.2.4 Increasing connectivity (Hannah 2008). terrestrial protectedareas,includingcreationof to MPAs,butthereisalready variations arequitenewforconservationpractice. and basedonspecies’life-cyclestrendsin and fisheries,whereactivitiescouldberestri the targetspeciesthattheyprotect.Partly,idea boundaries varyintimeandspace(Hannah2008) Mobile reserves,ordynamicprotectedareas, 2.2.2.3 Mobile reserves habitats whenthespecieswillshifttheirdistributiontohigherelevations(Hannah2008). on watershedboundaries,butinsteadincludehigh suggestion inregardtomontanereservesisthat 2009;Hodgson

etal. etal. etal. 2009). 2009). 2009).Theideaistomanageareassurroundingprotected areasinaway etal. a numberofgeneralrecommendationsforitsapplication 2009;Hagerman cted, allowedorprohibited,dependingonthetime ble climaticconditions(Mackinnon2008;Heino corridors thatwillconnectsuitableenvironments the benefits.Implementationofsuchmeasures 14 are reserveswhoselevelofprotectionand/or the demarcationofreservesshouldnotbebased a coordinatedsystemoflandholderagreements vity ofthelandscapeoutsideprotectedareas population size.Atthesametime,spatial ble climaticconditions through theadjacent

tance isbeingoveremphasized,andthereare The concepthasbeenfirstproposedinregard . Inotherwords,theyaremovingalongwith ent, asbetterresultscouldbeachievedby the assumptionthatweneedsafepathways issimilartotheexistingpracticeforhunting -elevated habitatsonbothsides,tosecure etal. ing habitatquality,ratherthancreating 2010).Developmentof matrix area et CEU eTD Collection 2 consequences toexistingpopulationsthatcan the opponentsfocusonpotentialnegativeeffects become invasiveatanewplaceisabout1%,which isquitelow(Vitt species withmassdispersalpotential,thepotential aims toprotectspeciesfromthreateningdiseases. limited dispersalability(Vitt species onrelativelyshortdistancespolewardorto Assisted migrationasamanagementresponseto 2008; Vitt fragmentation, or,ifnaturalmigrationrateis way toovercomechallengesimpliedbyth migration, assistedcolonizationormanagedreloca which arethemainargumentsofopponents.Assi climate change,anditswiseapplicationwilllead believe thatassistedmigrationhasitsimporta 2008; Mawdsley has alreadybeenimplementedinanumberof combines differentexistingmanagementtechnique Assisted migration 2.2.2.6 Assisted migration available forspecies(Hannah2008;WillisandBhagwat2009). matrix isplayinganimportantroleinsupporting other conservationstrategies(Mawdsley with narrowhabitatrequirements,whichcouldle drawback oftheapproachisthatitdoesnot invasive weedspeciesanddamagevegetationonth Inappropriate managementofthematrixareacouldmakelandscapehighlypermeablefor ecosystem types(Hannah and suitablefordifferentspecies,ratherthanfo Assisted migration is defined as the “purposeful movement of of movement “purposeful asthe isdefined migration Assisted management response to climate change” (Vitt etal. 2010).Itmaybetheonlychanceforlessmobileoradaptablespeciestosurvive. etal. 2 isahighlycontroversialissue(Hagerman 2009).Itallowsenhancingthequality etal. etal. 2002).

2010).Itconsidersintra-continentaltranslocation only,and etal. 2010). etal. focus onrareandendangeredspecies,species 2009).Nevertheless,inchangingconditions,the overlap withthehuman-relocatedpopulationsand 15 lower thanthepaceofclimatechange(Hannah nce inbiodiversityconservationthefaceof e limitednaturalmigrationduetohabitat countries inEuropeandtheUSA(Hannah totheavoidanceofundesirableconsequences, cusing onthemovementofspecificspeciesor speciesshiftsandmaycontaintheonlyhabitat

climatechangesuggeststranslocationofthe e edgesofprotectedareas(Hannah2008).The higherelevationsandfocusesonspecieswith species to facilitate or mimic natural expansion, as a direct expansion, mimicnatural facilitateor to species In contrasttothelongdistancerelocationof ad totheirextinctionifnotcombinedwith s, includingagroforestry,damremovals,and tion, hasbeensuggestedbyscientistsasthe of theintra-continentaltranslocatedplantto ofassistedintroductions,includinggenetic sted migration,orinotherwordsmediated of thelandscape,makingitpermeable etal. 2010).Proponentsoftheidea etal. 2010).Argumentsof CEU eTD Collection Tajikistan isasmallmountainouscountryin Biodiversity overview 2.3.1 Localscene:BiodiversityandprotectedareasinTajikistan 2.3 coordination ofactivities(Hannah One oftheimportantprerequisiteforeffectivean Othermeasures 2.2.2.7 (Hagerman niche space,andbelievethatthefirstbe lead tothedisruptionofnativepopulations(Vitt glacier ecosystems(20%). Themostvaluableanddiverseecosystemsinclude mid-highmountain ecosystems (24%ofthe country territory),high (Safarov high mountaindesertsandmeadowstofoothill Ecosystems ofTajikistanarerepres Biodiversity richnessisexhibitedatallleve et al. (NBBC 2009).ThelatteroccurinTajikistanona global significancepresentedbyendemic,relicsp Tajikistan contains1.9%oftheworld’splantand biodiversity withhighdegreesofendemism(Safarov Specific mountainclimaticconditionsandis territory, halfofwhichissi concentration ofbiodiversity(Safarov experience andotherresources(Hannah appropriate conservationgoals,andharmonizationof size withinspecificprotectedarea.Inthiscase,regionalcoordinationallowsidentifying the overallpopulationsizeatregionalorgloba regional scale.Itisespeciallyrelevanttothe regional climatemodels,sensitivityanalysisand change notonlyatnationallevel, 1998). et al. etal. 2003).Themostcommon naturalecosys 2010). tuated atanelevationof butatregionallevelaswell.Regionalmodelingincludesuseof etal. ented by12typesandrangefromnivalglacierecosystems and etal. 2002).Itisimportantto et al. CentralAsiawithanareaof143,100km 2002). conservation ofrareandendangeredspecies,when 2003).Mountainsoccupy93%ofthecountry 16 l scalehasmoreimportancethanthepopulation olation hasenabledtheformationofunique etal. mountainmeadowand steppe (22%)andnival ls, includingecosystem,speciesandgenetic. semi-desert anddesertecosystemswetlands biotic responsemodelstoidentifyimpactsona st optionistoallowspeciesadaptnaturally d efficientbiodiversityconservationisregional

scale foundnowhereelseintheworld(Krever ecies andwildrelativesofcultivatedplants 0.66% animaldiversity,includingspeciesof 2010).Theyalsoquestiontheavailabilityof et al. ≥ efforts, aswelltransferofknowledge, 3,000 masl(FritschandFriesen2009). 2003).Inspiteofthesmalllandarea tems includehighmountain desert assesstheimpactofclimate 2 andhigh

CEU eTD Collection mammals includebrownbear( insects, andofvertebrates–birds,represented (Safarov which isrepresentedbymorethan13,000species The diversityofecosystemsandplantcommunities year (Safarov arid, sub-arid,andhumidconditions,thefluctuationofprecipitationfrom70to2,000mma times biggerthanTajikistan(NBBC2003).Thisri compared with4,750speciesand550endemics 2003). Vascularplantsarerepr range frombroadleafforestsandborealmead of wildrelativescultivatedplantsand1,13 Tajikistan ishomefornearly10,000floraspecies (Safarov functions providehabitatforendemicandrare conifer forest(6%),mesophylicfo 2003; Safarov habitat modificationand fragmentation,envir resulting mainlyfromanthropogenicactivities, Similarly toothercountries,therichbiodiversity argali orwildram( Figure 2-1.SpeciesdiversityinTajikistan Inferior plants–5,260 Bryophyta -358 Lichenes -524 Algae –2,145 Fungi -2,233 et al et al.

. 2003;NBBC2009). 2003).Themostnumerousclassofinver et al. etal. Flora –9,771 species Flora 2003). Ovis ammonpolii 2003).Asaresult,ecosystems arede

Vascular plants–4,511 Angiospermae –4,454 Gymnospermae -35 esented by4,511species,including882endemics,whichcanbe Ursus arctosisabellinus Pteridophyta -22 Species diversity inTajikistan ), snowleopard( rest (1%)andxerophyticforest(4%)thatamongothervaluable

2 endemicplants,and20typesofvegetationthat onmental pollution,and climatechange(NBBC 17 including unsustainableuseofnaturalresources, ows tosubtropicalandtropicaldeserts(NBBC by 346species.Thelargest(andmostfamous) of Tajikistanisexperiencingdifferentpressures, (see Figure2-1),includingapprox.1,000species speciesandprotectuniquegeneticresources (seeFigure2-1),including800endemicspecies in Kazakhstanthathasterritoryalmosttwenty chness canbeexplainedbythecombinationof

Uncia uncia

), Bukharareddeer( promotedthedevelopmentofarichfauna,

tebrates, representedby12,619species,is Invertebrates –12,619 Insecta -10,000 Arachnida -715 Vermes -1,400 grading andlosingtheir diversity and Protozoa -300 Mollusca -204 Source: AdaptedfromNBBC2009 ), andurial( Fauna –13,150species Fauna

Ovis vigneibochariensis Cervus elaphusbactrianus

Vertebrates –531 Mammalia -84 Amphibia -2 Reptilia - 47 Pisces - 52 Aves -346

). ), CEU eTD Collection - IUCN categoriesispresentedbelow: purposes. Abriefdescriptionofthemaincategor protected areasbasedontheprotectionregimean only bythestate(UNECE2004). national legislation,protectedareasshouldbere endangered species’(seeAnnex1)(IUCN2010a). Threatened Speciesas‘endangered’andtwo species arealsolistedintheInternationalUni endangered (UNECE2004;Safarov mountain forestecosystemswithapprox.half their speciesareendangered(Safarov (NBBC 2003,2009).Themostvulnerabletaxaappear human activitiesinthelastfewdecades,andar al. A declineinspeciesdiversityisbeingobserved (Safarov Government oftheRepublic withdrawn fromeconomicactivities,andhave environmental, scientific,cultural,aesthetic different protectedareas,whicharedefinedas“lan threatened species,ecosystemsandlandscape.Th A numberofstepshavebeenunde Protectedareas 2.3.2 species thatgavethenameforone the territoryofTajikistan,includingTurantiger( habitat destructionandpoaching,3animal16 functionality, andspeciesarethreatenedbypopu

2003).Morethan226plantand162animalsp category correspondsto theIUCNcategoryI representative andunique ecosystems,andca protect andstudynaturalresources,processe State strictnaturereservesor etal. 2003;Butorin etal. Tajikistan”(Article2)( 2005). zapovedniks TheLawonProtectedAreas(1996) etal. ofthereservesinTajikistan– rtaken bythecountrytoensure etal. 2006).Eightfaunaspecies (hereinafter referredtoasreserves)areestablished to 2003).Themostvulnerableecosystemsaremid- and recreationalvalues,completelyorpartially on forNatureConservation(IUCN)RedListof 18 in allnaturalecosystemsofTajikistan(Safarov e includedintheRedDataBookofTajikistan garded asaunitedsystemandmaybeowned ecies havebecomerareandendangereddueto

fauna andsevenfloraspeciesas‘critically of thefloraandfaunaspeciesclassifiedas special protectionregimeestablishedbythe ies, alongwiththeirreferencetointernational lation declineandrisk n notbeusedforanyother purposes.This plantspecieshavealreadydisappearedfrom d landmanagement,aswellconservation e majorstepincludestheestablishmentof d orwaterareasthathavespecialecological, – areasthatpossesssome outstandingor tobemammalsandreptiles;nearlyhalfof s, andgenepoolsofplants,animals, Panthera tigrisvirgata Law onProtectedAreas Tigrovaya Balka (vertebrates) andthreeflora alsospecifiescategoriesof in-situ )–agloballyextinct of extinction.Dueto 1996).Accordingto conservationof (TigerValley) et CEU eTD Collection (NBBC 2003,2006). cultivated plantsthatrepresentvaluablegenetic flora andfaunaspecies,includingrareendemic, steppe and0.01%ofmid-mounta ecosystems, butonly0.5%ofmid-mountainjunipe (Meessen Established protectedareasrepresentmostof additional information,includingconservationgoals,canbefoundinAnnex2. Location oftheestablishedreserves,nationalparksand 2006). Thisistwicehigherthat 1998; Safarov than 31thousandkm parks (seeTable2-1)(NBBC2009). been establishedandcurrentlycomp “ Development oftheprotectedareasinTajikistan - - -

Tigrovaya Balka outstanding oruniquevalue(IUCN1994; IUCN categoryIII–areasmanagedforconser scientific, culturalandaestheticvalue.This State naturalmonuments category IV–areasmanagedmainlyforcons components. Theycouldbeofrepublicanor zakazniks State naturereserves,orspeciesmanagementsites, foundation forscientific,educationalandrecreationalopportunities. protected areasmanagedmainlyforecosys educational, scientificandculturalpurpos historical andaestheticvalueintended State naturalparksornationalareareas Law onProtectedAreas representative ecosystemsandmanagedforsciencewildernessprotection(IUCN1994; etal. ) aredesignatedforprotectionandrehabilitationofnaturalcomplexesortheir etal. 2003).Theycover50%ofthetotalwetlan ” wascreatedtopreserveuniquewetlandsandtheirinhabitants(Krever 2003).Bytheendof20 2 , whichconstitutes22%ofthetotalterritorycountry(Safarov 1996).

are uniqueandirreplaceablenaturalobjectsthathaveecological, the10%target,recommendedbyIUCNguidelines(1994). in broadleavedforests(Safarov Thetotalareadesignatedfortheprotectionhasreachedmore rises fournaturereserves,14 Law onProtectedAreas th es. TheycorrespondtotheIUCNcategoryII– 19 resources, areconcentratedwithinnaturereserves centurytheuniquesystemofprotectedareashad categoryofprotectedar ervation throughmanagementintervention. the naturalzonesandecosystemsinTajikistan local importance,andcorrespondtotheIUCN

tem protectionandrecreationprovide comprising complexeswithspecialecological, r forests,0.2%ofhighmountainmeadowand began in1938whenthefirstnaturereserve andaconsiderablepartofwildrelatives for useenvironmental,recreational, zakazniks vation ofspecificnaturalfeatures d areaand60%ofhigh-mountaindesert zakazniks etal. canbeseeninFigure2-2,and 1996). zakazniks (hereinafterreferredtoas 2003). More than 35% of eas correspondstothe

andthreenational etal. etal.

CEU eTD Collection Figure 2-2.Protectedareasof Tajikistan Table 2-1.ProtectedareasofTajikistanbycategory Percentage ofcountry’sterritory Recreation zones Botanic stations Botanic gardens Natural monuments Zakazniks National parks Nature reserves Category Total

Category IUCN III IV II V I - -

20

Amount 68 47 13 26 14 21 3 5 3 4

Source: AdaptedfromNBBC2009 Source: AdaptedfromNBBC 2009 Area (km 30,936 26,068 31,196 3,134 1,734 260 153 100 7 - 2 )

protected area % fromtotal 99.2 21.8 0.02 83.6 100 0.8 0.5 0.3 5.6 10 -

CEU eTD Collection wood) ontheterritoryofreservesinordertosustaintheirlivelihoods(Safarov regime isveryoftenviolatedbylocalpeople situation hasworsenedbypoorsocio-economic plants numbers,andalmostnoresearchiscarriedoutnowadays(Safarov outside protectedareashasbeensignificantlyredu designated protectedareas.Duetothelackof functioning oftheenvironmentalinstitutions Other problemsincludethelackoffinancialan conservation, providesa strategy response conservationmeasures, butalsospecifies information onthecurrent stateofbiodiversity biodiversity conservationinthecountry(Safarov with itscommitmentsundertheCBDratifiedin 1997,andtoprovideapolicyinstrumentfor of biologicaldiversitytheRepublicTajikis A NationalBiodiversityStrategyandActionPlan 2.3.3.1 National Biodiversity below. monitoring ofbiodiversity.Abriefsummaryth implementation ofprojectsaimedatcapacitybu strategies, programsandamendmentstoex management andefficiencyinparticular.The towards theimprovementofbiodiversityc In responsetoproblemswithprotectedareas, Policy and othermeasures 2.3.3 only, ignoringotherassociatedspeciesandvaluableecosystems(Safarov have verynarrowconservationtargetsandfoc assemblages remainoutsideprotectedareas. Safarov the factthatitdoesnotcoveralluniqueeco management andbiodiversityconservation.Someof However, theestablishedprotectedareasnetworkis et al. (2006),morethan10%ofuniqueecosys and actionplansidentifies themaineconomic,politicaland Strategy andActionPlan Another problemisthatthemajorityof us ontheprotectionofafewendangeredspecies who areforcedtocollectnaturalresources(e.g. 21 tan hasbeendevelopedbythecountrytocomply and effectiveprotectionofbiodiversitywithin systems andendangeredspecies.Accordingto measures includethedevelopmentofnational onservation ingeneralandprotectedareas etal. d humanresourcesthatdoesnotallowproper (NBSAP)onconservationandsustainableuse e mainmeasuresandachievementsispresented funding,biodiversitymonitoringwithinand conditions andlowawareness.Theprotection ced, thereisnoupdateddataontheanimaland Tajikistan hasundertakenanumberofsteps isting laws,aswelldevelopmentand and itscomponents,main threats,trendsand

themaingoalsandobjectives ofbiodiversity ilding, raisingawareness,andinventory thedrawbacksrelatetosystemitselfand farfromidealandhasmanyproblemswith tems and85%ofvaluablespeciestheir 2003).Itcontainsnotonlycomprehensive etal. 2006). etal. etal. 2003).The 2006). zakazniks

CEU eTD Collection and others(Safarov current protectedareasnetwork staff, revisingthestatusofsomereserves,orga the protectedareassystem,trainingandraising biodiversity conservationandprotectedareasmana environmental pollution,deforestation,wastema mechanisms toovercomethem.Inaddition measures forcopingwithsuchproblemsas information oncurrentenvironmentalproblems development ofthecountry(Safarov management andconservationofvaluablefragileecosystemstopromotethesustainable Government ofTajikistanin2006andaimstocreatethefoundationforoptimalnature The NationalEnvironmentalActionPlan(N NationalEnvironmentalActionPlan 2.3.3.2 of WorkonProtectedAreasinthecountryarealsopresentednationalreports. Information aboutprotectedareasandprogressof available data),aswellontheimplem reports provideup-to-dateinformationonthest conservation, withthelastonesubmittedto In additiontotheNBSAPcountryhaspr international requirementsandobligations(Safarov protected areasnetworkandecologicalnetwork, valuable andendangeredspeciesecosys and overallcapacitybuilding,b)expandingthe protection ofrareandendangeredspecies NBSAP include:a)enhancingtheexistingpro timeframe andmechanismsfortheirimplementation.Themainpolicyissuesstipulatedinthe inefficiencies. Italsoidentifiesprioritymea The NBSAPprovidesdetailedinformation implementation ofidentifiedmeasuresbyallcompetentauthorities(Safarov NBSAP constitutesthelegalbasisforbiodiver financial mechanismstoachievetheenvisagedgo etal. 2006). by establishingnewmicro- etal. the CBDSecretariatin2009(NBBC2009).These sures toovercometheproblemsandsetsupa 2006).Thedocumentprovidescomprehensive entation oftheConventionanditsprograms. tected areasnetworkbyundertakingmeasureson tems, c)developmentofnationalandregional 22 nization ofsystematicmonitoring,expandingthe the qualificationsofprotectedareasmanagement ecosystems, enhancingthemonitoringsystems on protectedareas,theirmanagementand sity conservationinthecountryandrequires current networkofprotectedareastoinclude nagement andothers,itprovidesmeasureson EAP) wasdevelopedandadoptedbythe

epared fournationalreportsonbiodiversity als. AdoptedbytheGovernmentin2003, theimplementationofSCBDProgramme etal. gement. Thelatterincludesimprovementof ate ofbiodiversityinTajikistan(basedon and d)harmonizationoflegislationwith and identifiespriorities,measures 2003). zakazniks , legislationharmonization etal. 2003). CEU eTD Collection (Pereladova mechanisms forthelong-termtransbound Network (Econet)intoregionalandnationalplan Pereladova governments ofKazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikis “On creationandmanagementoftheregional Central Asiaforthelong-termconservationof was thecreationofaunitedschemeandstra Environment Facility(GEF)andactiveparticipati Fund forNature(WWF),UnitedNations A regionalprojecthasbeenimplementedinCent 2.3.3.4 Ecological Network of newprotectedareas(SCEPF2005). implementation ofactivities,aswellconcretear detailed actionplans,withtheindicationof habitats, renewalofscientificresearchandinst with Afghanistan,China,andPakistan.Otherme state ofbiodiversity(SCEPF2005).Itisalso existing reservesandreorganiza expanding theterritoryofexistingnaturalparksand The Programenvisagestheestablishmentofnewnaturalparks, (SCEPF 2005). expand theprotectedareasnetwork it emphasizestheneedtoharmonizelegislati year period,andcoversthemostimportantissues stipulates themainactivitiesondevelopmen Government in2005aspartoftheNBSAPim Tajikistan istheStateProgramonProtectedAr One ofthemostimportantdocumentsaimed StateProgramon 2.3.3.3 etal. etal. 2006).Theprojectwasalsoaimedatintegration ofthedevelopedEcological 2006). Protected AreasDevelopment tion oftheexistingsystembasedonconservationgoalsand toensuretheprotectionofvaluablespeciesandecosystems plementation process(NBBC2006).TheProgram Environment Programme(UNEP)andGlobal itutional capacitybuilding.TheProgramprovides biodiversity andimplemen ary cooperationonbiodiversityconservation 23 planned tocreateatransboundarynationalpark tegy ontheecologicalnetworkdevelopmentin tan, TurkmenistanandUzbekistan(NBBC2006; t oftheprotectedareasinTajikistanforten eas Developmentin2005-2015,adoptedbythe on tocomplywithinternationaltreatiesand responsibleauthoritiesandtimeframefor

s onsustainabledevelopmentandestablishing on ofTajikistan.Themaingoaltheproject eas andplacestobeallocatedforthecreation ral AsiawiththesupportofWorldWide in thearea.Similarlytonationalstrategies, at enhancingtheprotectedareassystemin ecological network”signedin2004bythe asures includetherestorationofdegraded zakazniks zakazniks , assigningbufferzonesforthe andreserves,aswell tation oftheagreement CEU eTD Collection natural resources,existingprotectedareasnetwo complex integralapproachwiththeuseofGIS The mainoutcomeoftheprojectwasdevel - areas weretargetedbytheprojects: areas, aswellstrengtheningtheexistingsy and includetheimplementationofprojects In additiontopolicymeasures,anumberofpracti 2.3.3.5 Other activities structural, technicalandfinancialmechanismsforitsimplementation(NBBC2006). Econet Implementationatnationa 2006). Otherprojectoutcomesincludethedeve and secondorder,ecologicalcorridorsofthe indicator speciesandidentifiesthefollowingco al. - -

2006).ThecreatedcomprehensiveEconetofTa Tigrovaya BalkaReserve endangered species,includingrein agencies, scientistsandNGOs.Undertakena with thesupportofWWFandinvolvement Romit Reserve,ShirkentNaturalPark use (Safarov local population,raisingawarenessonthevalue implementation ofthesmallgrantprogramto development oftheManagementPlanfor with thesupportofWorldBank.Th Dashtidjum Zakaznik (WWF 2008). capacity building,andpromotionofbest restoration oftugaiforests,improvementwa support ofUnitedNations Development biodiversity management intheGissarMounta the GissarMountains, are coveredby etal. 2008). wasthemaintargetofproj . Severalprojectswereimplemented l andregionallevel,which and troduction ofPersiangazelle( Almasi Zakaznik stem ofprotectedareas.Thefollowing 24 first andsecondorderbufferzones(NBBC mponents ofthenetwork:co the ongoingprojecton protectedareasand onbiodiversityconservationwithinprotected opment ofanecologicalnetworkbasedonthe rk andsocio-economicactivities(Pereladova that allowedoverlappingdataonbiodiversity,

Programme (UNDP)and GEF.Theproject lopment oftheStrategyandActionPlanon water managementpracticesamongfarmers cal stepshavebeenundertakeninthecountry ensure sustainableuseofnatureresourcesby e mainoutcomesoftheprojectinclude ctivities compriseconservationofrareand ter balance,infrastructurerehabilitationand of biologicalresourcesandtheirsustainable jikistan considers82animaland80plant ins, whichisbeingimplemented withthe zakaznik differentstakeholders,includingstate ect fundedbyGEFandimplemented , locatedonthesouthernslopeof inter alia , institutionalcapacitybuilding, on theterritoryofthisreserve providesnecessarylegal, Gazella subgutturosa re areasofthefirst et ), CEU eTD Collection greenhouse gasemissions(Swarup2009).TotalCO Tajikistan belongstothecountriesleastrespons Localscene:ClimatechangeinTajikistan 2.4 monitoring program(UNDP2010). areas bycompletingnationalcapacityneedsa and theirremovaland/ormitigationofne services andtheirintegrationintonationalprocesse areas valuesbyconductingnational-levela implementation ofthefollowingcomponents CBD ProgrammeofWorkonProtectedAreas”.It The countryhasrecentlycompletedtheUNDP-G on climatechangemitigation andadaptation. impacts onbiodiversityare presentedbelow,along of theclimatechangetrendsinTajikistanas pest outbreaks,andbiodiversityloss(Makhmadaliev already beenobserved,includinganincreaseof Tajikistan isverysensitivetogl Being amountainouscountrywithspecificclim consequences ofclimatechangetoitsnaturalan Though greenhousegasesemissionsthemselvesar wastes (8%)(Makhmadaliev Tajikistan in2002-2003wereagriculture(50%), Tajikistan isgeneratedbyhydropowerplants.The small sharecanbeexplainedbyinsignificantuseof the shareofglobalemissionslessthan0.1%(UNDP2007;Makhmadaliev States (UNDP2007).ThisplacesTajikistanasnu megatons or0.8tonpercapita,whichcanbecomp protected areasterritories,andmanyotheractivities(UNDP2005). of managementplans,introductionsustai and envisagesactivitiesonmonitoringofen aimed toimprovemanagementeffectivenessan etal. obal warming.Climatechangeanditsnegativeconsequences have 2008). ssessments oftheprotectedareasenvironmental wellasasummaryoftheobservedandassumed 25 ssessments, andd)developmentofalong-term d socio-economicsystemsrepresentarealthreat. gative effects,c)buildingcapacityforprotected surface temperaturesleadingtoglaciersretreat, dangered speciesandecosystems,development the CBDprogram:a)assessmentofprotected

main sourcesofgreenhousegasesemissionsin mber 159of211countriesintheworld,with EF project“Supportingcountryactiononthe fossilfuels,as98%oftheenergyproducedin fuel combustion(27%),industry(15%)and atic conditions,landscapesandecosystems, with thedescriptionofmain policymeasures e notofabigconcernforthecountry, nable managementpracticesonadjacentto s, b)identificationoftheperverseincentives ible forglobalclimatechangeduetoitslow etal. ared with20.6tonpercapitaintheUnited d capacitiesintheselectedprotectedareas 2 emissionsin2004constitutedonlyfive hasallowedtobuildcapacityforthe 2003a,2003b,2008).Abriefoverview etal. 2008).Sucha CEU eTD Collection will constituteonaverage3.7°Cbytheendof21 According tothefourthIPCCreportanincrease mean surfacetemperatures(Makhmadaliev is alsoincreaseinthefrequencyofnaturaldisa mountainous andfoothillareas,thoughthenumber trends canbeobservedwiththenumberofdays temperature of40°Candhigherhasincreasedat extreme weatherevents(Makhmadaliev Climate changeinTajikistancanalsobeobser within TajikistanareshowninAnnex3. regions (Makhmadaliev precipitation ingeneralhasdecreased,withthe Though insomecasestheintensityofprecipita to 2,500masl,andaslightreductionby3%was annual amountofprecipitationsby8%wasobser observed trendsvaryfordifferentelevationsandlandscapes.Aninsignificantincreaseofthe due togeographicandclimaticdiversityofthecountry(Makhmadaliev In contrasttoincreasingsurfacetemperature,th in mostareasofTajikistanhasincreasedby5-10days(Makhmadaliev the minimummeantemperatureshavedecreased(b maximum (by0.5-1°C)annualandseasonaltemperatu increase inmeansurfacetemperatures,thereisalsoanminimum(by0.5-2.0°C)and Increase inmeansurfacetemperaturethemountainousareasconstitutes0.3-0.5°C.Besides town locatedinthecountry’ssouth.Incapita last sixtyyears.Thebiggestincreaseintheme 2008). Theaverageincreaseof most areasofTajikistan,includinghighal Analyses ofclimatechangetrendsconductedby Observationsandforecast 2.4.1 albedo duetosnowand icemelting.Therepor increase inthemodelsfor highaltitudeareas greater thantheglobalprojected meanof2°C(Christensen etal. 2008).Thetrendsinmeansurfacetemperatureandprecipitation mean surfacetemperatureconstitutes0.1-0.2°Cperdecadeforthe etal. titude zones,isincreasing(Makhmadaliev etal. sters likefloodsandavalanchesduetoincreaseof an surfacetemperature(1.2°C)wasobservedina 2003b;2008). 26 2003b;2008).Thenumberofdayswithair is explainedbythepossible decreaseinsurface maximum decreaseof48daysobservedinsome ved inthechangingintensityandfrequencyof st ere isnogeneraltrendinprecipitationpatterns l city,Dushanbe,thisincreaseconstitutes1.0°C. noted inthemountainousareasofcountry. theSAHrevealedthatsurfacetemperaturein inmeansurfacetemperaturesforCentralAsia century(0.3-0.4°Cperdecade),whichismuch

ved ontheterritorieslocatedelevationsup tion hasincreased,the t alsoacknowledgesthat theprojectionsfor ofdayswhenitsnowshasdecreased.There almost allflatareasofthecountry.Similar y -0.1°C).Durationofthefrost-freeperiod withheavyrainfalls,especiallyincentral res. Howeverinsomeareasofthecountry et al. 2007).Thehighertemperature etal. etal. 2008). number ofdayswith 2003b,2008).The etal. 2003b, CEU eTD Collection due tocarbondioxidefertilization effect,d)thre expansion ofthearea deserts,c)flourishing vegetation atthefoothills, b)degradationof the upperlineofshrubandsub-shrubvegetation to recommendations (section2.4.3).Themainprojections of ecosystemsandtheirpotentialresponsesto globalwarming,andprovidedadaptation mitigation in2001-2003(Makhmadaliev development oftheNationalActionPlanth The firstattempttoanalyzeclimatechange biodiversity. Abriefoverviewofthemainst assumptions andconclusionsonthenegativeimpactofclimatechangecountry’s Meanwhile, anumberofobservationsandgeneral well asbytherelativelyrecentattentiontopr general lackofmonitoringandresearchactiviti climate changeimpactsonbiodiversityarequitelim to climatechange(Makhmadaliev Despite thefactthatmountainecosystemsandende Climatechangeandbiodiversity 2.4.2 (Makhmadaliev increase by0.1-0.2°Cperdecadethatcoincideswiththeobservedwarmingtrends 0.4°C isprojectedbytheendof2030inmostar altitudes ofTajikistanhasbeenused.Accordin 1961 to1990collectedfromtenrepresentativest until 2030(Makhmadaliev account geographicalpeculiaritiesofthecountry, employed amodeldevelopedbythePotsdamInstit peculiarities andthushavehigherrorprobab Taking intoaccountdrawbacksoftheglobalmo over CentralAsia(Christensen seasonal variationsinthewarmingandamediandecreaseby3%annualmeanprecipitation weather systemsofthehighaltitudeareas”(Christensen Central Asiahavemanyuncertaintiesduetoth etal. 2008). etal. etal. 2008).Forthispurpose,there etal. 2007). etal. 2003b;Kassam2009),researchandinformationon udies andtheirresultsarepresentedbelow. 2003b).Thestudyanalyzedtheoverallvulnerability ility, theStateAgencyforHydrometeorologyhas e “complextopographyandassociatedmesoscale 27 es inthecountryduring winterpasturesandwetland ecosystems,and g tothedevelopedscenariosawarmingby0.2- impact onbiodiversitywasundertakenduring of highmountainpastures andalpinemeadows ats tothemid-mountain broadleaf forestsfrom eas ofTajikistan.Itmeansaveragetemperature toprojectclimatechangetrendsinTajikistan

ations locatedindifferentclimaticzonesand oblem duetoprioritiesgivenotherissues. e RepublicofTajikistanforclimatechange knowledge haveallowedexpertstomakefirst ute forclimateimpactresearch,thattakesinto mic speciesofTajikistanareveryvulnerable dels thatdonotconsiderlocallandscape ited. Itcanbeprobablyexplainedbya higherelevationsanddegradationofthis presented inthereportinclude:a)shiftof et al. 2007,81).Modelsprojectmodest ference datafortheperiodfrom thelasttwentyyears,as CEU eTD Collection (Makhmadaliev on ecosystems,reportedintheSecond change parametersanddevelopmentofindicatorsfortheassessmentclimateimpact The furtherstudyoftheproblemhasresultedin (Makhmadaliev capacity ofthemountainspecieswillleadto probability ofmountainecosystemsdegradationis into accountprojectionsofsurfacemeantemperatureincreaseby0.1-0.4°Cperdecade,the exceed thecapacityofmountainfloraspeciesfor emphasizes thatincreaseofthesurfacemeantem and faunaspeciesspreadofa The reportalsoprojectsphenologicalchangesinfo and therebyoninhabitantsofwaterreservoirs(Makhmadaliev the increasedfrequencyandintensityofdrou negative impactsinclude threatstopistachios by locust( increased numberofcottonworminfestationsca increase ofpestoutbreakshasbeenobserved Second nationalcommunication(Makhmadaliev An increasednumberofpestoutbreaksisanothe that createdunfavourableconditionsandaffected migration routes(Makhmadaliev fish species(Amudaryatrout,coas northern Tajikistanuntil1980-1990.Expertsalso species Menzber’smarmot( snow patcheswerestatedinthereportasoneof water andforestresources(Makhmadaliev mountain ecosystemsandrarespeciesoffloraan The followingparameterswereidentifiedasthemostsensitivetoclimatechange:impactonhigh long-term climaticfluctuations(Makhmadaliev Tajikistan, poplarforthetugaiforestsof include walnuttreesforthedeciduousforestsof Dociostaurus maroccanus etal. etal. 2003b). 2008).Identifiedmainindicatorsto Marmota menzbieri ) in2000-2007increased from16,000to85,000hectares.Other t rainbowtrout,etc.)duetothewarmingofwater inreservoirs lien invasivespecies(Makhmadaliev Tigrovaya Balka etal. ) thatinhabitedthehighaltitudemeadowsin etal. National CommunicationonClimateChange 28 etal. , almondtreesandtugai forestsofsouthern ghts, ande)negativeimpactsonwaterresources used harvestlossesofupto50%.Areasaffected in Tajikistanrecentdecades.In2003-2005, r impactoftheclimatechangementionedin 2008).Climatechangeandrelatedmeltingof claimedreductionofthepopulationseveral successful adaptationtoclimatechange.Taking thereasonsforex

centralTajikistan,almondtreesforsouthern d fauna,outbreaksofpestsandalienspecies, thelossofendangeredandrarespecies quite high.Habitatlossaswelllowadaptive perature bymorethan0.1°Cperdecadewill 2008). the analysisofmostsensitivetoclimate rest vegetationandfauna,alterationofflora 2008).Accordingtothereport,asignificant climatechangeindifferentecosystems andjuniperforestsasanindicatorof etal. 2003b). etal. tinction oftheendemic 2003b).Thereport etal. 2008). CEU eTD Collection ecosystems adaptationto climatechange(Makhmadaliev Among variousadaptationmeasuresthedocu building forfurtherresearchandanalysis(Makhmadaliev priorities andresponsemeasuresforclimate resources (includingecosystems),economyand pu greenhouse gases,aswelloverviewofthe background, climatechangetrendsandscenario It providesadetailedoverviewof 2003 andrepresentsastrategicdocument The NationalActionPlanforClimateChangeMitigationwasadoptedbytheGovernmentin NationalActionPlanfo 2.4.3.1 below. Mitigation andtwoNationalcommunications.Abrie country hasdevelopedseveraldocumentsinclud 2000 (Makhmadaliev Convention onClimateChange(UNFCCC)in1998,an Tajikistan hasundertakenseveralmeasures,includingaccessiontotheUNFramework Taking intoaccounttheimportanceofclimate Policy measures 2.4.3 climate changeandenhancingcurrentpolicy agrobiodiversity ofthecountrybyremoving significance (Safarov considering thefactthatTajikistaniscountry The lateststudiesarefocusingontheclimate weather events,includingforestfires(Makhmadaliev Tajikistan, andassociatedbiodiversityloss,fr measures wereidentified with theinvolvementof regions andstressresistantlocalendemicvarietiesfortheirreintroduction(UNDP2009). species toclimatechangeandextremeweatherev activities theprojectwillfocusonvulnerability etal. etal. 2008).InaccordancewiththeobligationsunderConvention, 2003).TheprojectsupportedbyUNDPandGEFseekstoembed theclimatechangeissuesincountry,includingproblem r ClimateChangeMitigation onclimatechangeissues(Makhmadaliev om increasedfrequencyandintensityofextreme potential andobservedimpactonvariousnatural 29 and practices(UNDP200 barriers foritsconservationandadaptationto change mitigation,adaptationandforcapacity ing aNationalActionPlanforClimateChange and adaptationassessmentofagrobiodiversity ment providesgeneralrecommendationson

various stakeholders:a)enhancing ofscientific ents, aswellonidentificationofriskprone s, descriptionofmainsourcesandsinks change forthecountry,Governmentof of originmanycultivatedplantsglobal change impactonagriculturalbiodiversity, etal. f overviewofthesedocumentsispresented blic health.Thedocumentalsoidentifies etal. 2008). d ratificationoftheKyotoProtocolin etal. 2003b). 2003b).Thefollowing priority 9). Alongwithother etal. 2003b). CEU eTD Collection biodiversity atvariousaltitudesandindifferentclimaticzones(Makhmadaliev diverse anduniqueecosystemsofthecountr biodiversity (seesection2.4.2fordetails)and change adaptationandmitigationmeasures.The greenhouse gasesandsinks,vulnerabilityassessmentbydifferentsectors,aswellclimate implementation ofUNFCCC(Makhmadaliev providing up-to-dateinformationonclimatechange The SecondNationalCommunicationonClimate mitigation andadaptation(Makhmadaliev the technologytransferandimpl institutional frameworks,determinesbarriersas reduction andadaptationtoclimatechange.Itan development andtechnologyneedsassessmentin comprehensive informationontrendsingreenhousegasesemissionsandidentifiespotentialfor focuses oncapacitybuildinginpriorityareas(Makhmadaliev The FirstNationalCommunicationonClimateChangewaspreparedbyTajikistanin2003and 2.4.3.2 National communications distribution questionthe adequacy oftheexisting management. Dynamic responses andconstant is evidentthatclimatechange impactsonbiodiv distribution rangestohigherlatitudesandelevati From thereviewofspecies’adaptiveresponses toclimatechange,whichincludeshiftsof causing changesthatleadtopopulationdeclineand, of valuablespecies,ecosystemsandtheirservices Climate changeisanunequivocalglobalproblem 2.5 Summary protected areastocoverecosystemsvulnerableclimatechange(Makhmadaliev species, e)protectionofendangeredspeciesandth for sustainableuseofnaturalresources,d)suppor areas, b)systematicmonitoringoftheecosys understanding oftheclimatechangeimpactonecosystemswithaspecialfocusprotected ementation ofidentifiedpriorityprojectsonclimatechange etal. tems, c)developmentandin 2003a). etal. 30 ersity havedirectimplications forprotectedareas ons, andchangesintimingoflife-cycleevents,it emphasizes importanceofprotectedareasand report alsofocusesonclimatechangeimpact well assuggestsmechanismsandmeasuresfor with manynegativeconsequencesincludingloss y instudyingimpactofclimatechangeon alyzes economic,environmental,legislativeand protected areasthatserve asaprimarytoolfor

. Itaffectsbiodiversityinanumberofways, changesinecosystems’ compositionand Change wascompletedin2008andaimedat 2008).Itpresentsanupdatedinventoryof eir habitats,andf)expansionoftheexisting differenteconomicsectorsforemissions inworstcases,totheextinctionofspecies. ting naturalcorridorsforthemigrationof issuesinTajikistan,includingstatusofthe etal. troduction ofpractices 2003a).Itprovides etal. etal. 2008). 2003b). CEU eTD Collection protected areas. scientific understanding of climatechange existing protectedareastocoverecosystemsvuln priority measuresonecosystemsadaptationtoclim Change Mitigation,whichisthestrategicdocument on biodiversitywithinprotectedareasishighlighted intheNationalActionPlanforClimate monitor climatechangeimpactonecosystems.The importancetoassessclimatechangeimpact pest outbreaks,waterandforestresources,in environmental parameterssensitivetoclimatech and Nationalcommunicationsonclimatechange carried outduringthedevelopmentofNa Research onclimatechangeimpactbiodiversity has undoubtedimplicationsforprotectedareasmanagement. time, noneofthesedocumentsconsidertheissue the countryandadoptionofStateProgram them. Theyincludedevelopmentofnationalstra effective biodiversityconservation,therearenumb species. Althoughthenetworkexperiencesva covers 22%ofthecountry’sterritoryandrepres biodiversity conservation,whichincludesdevel The GovernmentofTajikistanhasalreadyun pressure onnaturalresources. parallel withothermeasuresincludingenhanced irreversible lossandshouldstartwithresearch their endangeredinhabitants.Immediateadap is alreadyhappening,couldcausesignificantdegr adaptive capacity.Increasesofsurfacemeantempe Mountain ecosystemsofTajikistanareespecially many rare,relictandendemicspecieswildrelati Climate changeposesarealthreattotherichan based onthebiodiversityvulnerabilityassessmentandavailableadaptationpoliciesstrategies. biodiversity conservationandurgesforthedevel impactonecosystems with aspecialfocuson tional ActionPlanforClimateChangeMitigation opment ofauniqueprotectedareasnetworkthat 31 on ecosystems’vulnerabilitytoclimatechangein d uniquebiodiversityofTajikistanrepresentedby managementofprotectedareasandminimized rious problemsintermsofmanagementand tation measuresarerequiredtopreventthe on ProtectedAreasDevelopment.Atthesame adation ofthemountainecosystemsandloss opment ofclimatechangeadaptationmeasures tegies (NBSAP,NEAP),ecologicalnetworkof

ofclimatechangeimpactonbiodiversitythat ents almostallecosystems,rareandendemic troduces indicatorspeciesthatcanbeusedto ange, includingrareandendangeredspecies, er ofresponsivemeasur ratures bymorethan0.1°Cperdecade,which sensitive toclimatechangeduetheirlow erable toclimatechangeandenhancingthe dertaken anumberofmeasurestowards ves ofcultivatedplantsglobalsignificance. forTajikistan.Thedocumentalsostipulates ate change,whichincludesexpansionofthe of Tajikistanisquitelimitedandwasmainly . Thelatterprovidesanassessmentof es aimedtoovercome CEU eTD Collection Table 3-1.Thesismethodologicalframework research. presented below.Thischapteralsoprovidesan for biodiversityconservation.Abriefoverview Zakaznik, data analysis(seeTable3-1).Theresearchemploysacasestudythatfocuseson meteorological dataandqualitativevulnerabili archival reviewsandinterviewsfordatacoll This researchisbasedonacombinationofco 3. Methodological Framework climate change for adaptationmeasuresto and protected areasmanagement Identify measures implementation ofadaptation identify policies andprograms Analyze state underanalteredclimate. identify climate changeimpactsand fauna, floraandecosystems,to Dashtidjum Zakaznik components ofbiodiversity Assess Zakaznik the territoryof identify Analyze Objective develop vulnerabilityofdifferent prerequisitesfor potentialchangesintheir climatechangetrendson implicationsfor relevant national meteorological dataand

oneofthemostvulnerablereservestoc recommendations Dashtidjum , including

on theDPSIRapproach Qualitative assessmentbased interviews Semi-structured expert on theDPSIRapproach Qualitative assessmentbased Archival review on theDPSIRapproach Qualitative assessmentbased interviews Semi-structured expert Archival review Calculation oftrendvalues Pearson correlation Archival review Methods ty assessmentbasedontheDPSIRapproachfor 32 mplementary methodsandapproachesincluding overviewofthescopeandlimitations ection, quantitativemethodsforanalysisof

of themethods,includingsiteselection,is limate changeimpactswithhighsignificance

Meteorological dataisobtained Results developed anddiscussed policy recommendationsare management areidentifiedand Implications forprotectedareas measures areidentified implementation ofadaptation Prerequisites for obtained andanalyzed. policies andlegislationis Information onnational prioritized change areidentifiedand and mainimpactsofclimate Dashtidjum Zakaznik Vulnerability ofbiodiversity are obtained change impactsonbiodiversity Experts reflectionsonclimate Zakaznik biodiversity of Background informationon identified Climate changetrendsare Representative datasetischosen iscollected Dashtidjum isassessed Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection and non-governmentalorganizations. Interviewing materials fromvarioussources, suchasacademic reviews andsemi-structuredexpertinterviews.Th A numberofmethodshavebeenemployedtoga 3.2 Data collection biodiversity, includingdataonspeciesdistributions(Safarov only onethathasaManagementPlanwith Dashtidjum Zakaznik Data availability forest firesduetowarmertemperatureshasbeenobserved(Makhmadaliev regions ofthecountry.Inaddition,forestis significantly higherincreaseinthemeantempe in anarea‘significantlyvulnerable’toclimate (Parry andCarter1998).Accordingto(Makhmadaliev selection ofasitewherechangesinclimatearelikel Sensitivity toclimatechange overview ofthefactorsconsideredduring reserves toclimatechangeimpactswithhigh Dashtidjum Zakaznik and significanceofsiteforbiodiversityconservation,resultedinthisresearch’sfocuson based onareviewofnumbercr exploration withavarietyofdatacollectionand A casestudyapproachwaschosentotackleth 3.1 Site selection Tajikistan, and14plantanimalspecies (Safarov selection. Significance ofthesite the protectedareasnetwork(section2.3.2)(Safarov IUCN 2010c).Italsoprotectsmid-mountainfore etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008).Fortyanimaland43plantspecies isanimportantissuethatcouldconstr isoneofthefewreservesthathavebeenstudiedinrecentyears,and forbiodiversityconservationisanotherfactorconsideredthesite (see section4.1forageneraldescription) isonecriterionsuggestedbyIPCCforsiteselection,andimplies provideshabitatformoreth iteria, includingsensitivitytoclimatechange,dataavailability thesiteselectionisprovidedbelow. arelistedintheIUCNRedList(Safarov significance forbiodiversityconservation.Abrief change inecologicalterms.Thisisexplainedbya e researchproblemandensureitscomprehensive 33 analysis procedures.Th prone tofires,andanincreaseinthenumberof detailed informationonthecurrentstateof , government,intergovernmental, international, rature (upto1°C)incomparisonwithother st ecosystems,whicharepoorlyrepresentedin

etal. e formerinvolvedreviewofpublicationsand ther datafortheresearch,includingarchival experts notonlyprovided additionalinsights y tobefeltfirstand etal. ain anyresearch(ParryandCarter1998). 2003). arelistedintheRedDataBookof etal. 2008) an a100endemicfloraspecies 2008).

as oneofthemostvulnerable Dashtidjum Zakaznik e studysiteselectionwas with thegreatesteffect etal. 2008). etal. islocated 2008; CEU eTD Collection analysis ofclimatechangeimpactsonbiodiversity of Tajikistan. Protection andotheracademicstateinstitut Academy ofScienceanditsinstitutes,aswell (section 3.3.2).Anotherpartofthearchivalrevi meteorological stationto to gatherinformationontemperatureandprecipi also allowedobtainingdatathatisnotavailabl An archivalreviewwasanimportantmethodin the databasesofNationalBiodiversityan country-level information,includingofficialpub Conservation MonitoringCentre(UNEP-WCMC) protected areaswereaccessed,including: official-websites oftheorganizationsdealingwi the informationfrominternational,intergove Electronic LibraryInformationNavigator(ELIN)ofLundUniversityandGoogleScholar.For To addresstheresearchquestions,document proposed methods. This reviewalsoresultedintheidentificationof problem andtoidentifythecriteriaforth problem frombothglobalandnationalperspective A detailedliteraturereviewwasperformedatthein Archivalreviews 3.2.1 overview ofthemethodsisprovidedbelow. climate changetrendsandimpacts,disc interviews withtheforestershelpedcollecting identify priorityissuesandconservationmeasures.Fieldtripto reflections onpotentialimpactsofclimatechangethebiodiversity impacts onbiodiversityofTajikistanarequitelimi into theissue,butalsohelpedtoobtainrequire Dashtidjum Zakaznik, d BiosafetyCenter(NBBC),SAHandUNDP. e vulnerabilityassessmentframework(section3.3.1). UNFCCC, IPCC,CBD,UNEPanditsWorld as wellatmid-mountainmeteorologicalstations e inpublishedorelectronicmaterials.Itwasused 34 th climatechange,biodiversityconservation,and d data,aspublishedmaterialsonclimatechange lications andinternalreports,wasretrievedfrom thosefromtheResearchLaboratoryforNature ussing potentialadaptationmeasures.Abrief s werereviewedfrominternetsources,using rnmental andnon-governmentalsourcesthe dataonmonitoringprogramsandobserved ions, foranyinformationonobservationsand datacollectionduringtheresearchphaseand ew involvedanalysisofinternalreportsthe researchgapsandthefeasibilityofusing

ted. Interviewsalsoallowedtoobtainexperts’ , IUCN,WWFandUNDP.Themajorityof tation trendsrecordedatYol,thenearest itial stageoftheresearchandexplored s, tofacilitatebetterunderstandingofthe Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik andto and CEU eTD Collection meteorological dataispresented insection3.3.2 of for theanalysisofmeteorologicaldataandidenti Pearson’ Rcorrelationfortheselectionofrepresen DPSIR approach.Inadditiontoqualitativeanalys The maincomponentsofthevulnerabilityasse of analysisdifficult. qualitative dataonbiodiversitytrendsinTajikis assessment usingtheDPSIRframeworkwaschos dynamic populationmodeling(Malcolm1998;ParryandCarter1998),thevulnerability vulnerability toclimatechange,includinganalog framework fordataanalysis.Thoughtherear I analyzeddatainseveralstepsandemployedthesimplifiedDPSIRapproachasmain 3.3 Data analysis well astodiscussresultsoftheresearchandsuggestedrecommendations. consultations withexpertsinrelevantfieldswere recommendations forconservationmeasures.In zakaznik potential responsesofspecies,(ii)observedim identify (i)mainpressuresfromclimatechangeonvariousspeciesof Interview dataformedabasisfortheanal as wellsampletablethatwerefilledduringtheinterviews,aregiveninAnnexes5and6. structured form,withmostofthequestionsprep Tajikistan; threeinterviewswereconductedby Annex 4).Amajorityofinterviewswasconducted and fromdifferentinstitutions,includingac Tajikistan, and published materialsonobservedandpotentialim Interviews withexpertswereanessentialpartof Expertinterviews 3.2.2 Dashtidjum Zakaznik ,

(ii) themostthreatenedspeciesbyclima Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Abriefoverviewofthemethods inparticular.Altogether,18expertswithvariousbackgrounds ytical partoftheresearch.Theyhelped ademic andgovernmentalwereinterviewed(see e anumberoftechniquestoassessbiodiversity 35 tan, whichmakesimplementationofothertypes fication ofclimatechangetrendsontheterritory pacts ofclimatechange ssment arepresentedbelow,inthesectionon phone.Theinterviewswereheldinasemi- ared inadvance.Generalizedsamplequestions,

is, Iemployedquantitativemethods,including held toassistinselectionoftargetspecies,as theresearchduetolackofstudiesand ue studies,climateenvelopemodeling,and addition toformalinterviews,anumberof tative datasetandcalculationoftrendvalues pacts ofclimatechangeonbiodiversity te changeimpacts,and(ii)priorities face-to-faceduringtheresearchtripto en duetothelackofquantitativeand employed fortheanalysisof Dashtidjum Zakaznik onbiodiversityofthe inter alia and to CEU eTD Collection trends andpredictionsforclimatechangein criteria identifiedattheliteraturereview.There The DPSIRapproachwassimplifiedinaccordan mitigate climatechangeimpactsonthebiodiversityof implications foritsmanagementanddevel the vulnerabilityofbiodiversity Zakaznik Zakaznik Vulnerability assessmentunderthe Mkanda 1996;Malcolm1998),theyalsoareth threatened byhumanactivities,aremorevu based ontheassumptionthatspecieswithnarrow on sensitivespeciesandecosystemstypes,includin component. Itconsideredpotentialresponsesof biodiversity loss.Itwasfollowedbytheanalysisofinformationonmain objectives fromdifferentanglesandtoobt (Omann illustrating differentelements,theirreferencesto assessments (EEA1998;Maxim 1995 andadoptedbymanyorganizationsworl The DPSIRassessmentframeworkwasdeveloped DPSIRapproach 3.3.1 south-north axis,andothers (Malcolm1998;Mackinnon2008). uniformity, connectivity with othercomponents predispose tothem(Malcolm 1998;Mackinnon2 some characteristicsofprotectedareascontribute zakaznik component oftheresearchalongwithidenti implications fortheprotectedareasmanage and interviews(seeTable3-2).Thevulnerability a available observationsonspeciesresponsestoc archival reviewandinterviews.Specieseco climate changeimpactonbiodiversity,includin etal. . The toclimatechangeimpactsandpotentialad . Thisanalysiswasdonebasedoncriteria response 2009).TheDPSIRapproachtherefore componentincludedanalysisofnaturaladaptation capacitiesof etal. state 2009).Ithasprovedtobe Dashtidjum Zakaznik

ain comprehensiveviewonvulnerabilityof component wassupplementedwiththeanalysisof lnerable toclimatechangeimpacts(Millsap the studyarea(section3.3.2)asoneof op recommendationsonadaptationmeasuresto e primarytargetofconservationmeasures. ment, whichconstitutedthebasisfor 36 systems vulnerabilitywasanalyzedunderthe limate change,collectedthrougharchivalreview g directandindirectfactors,obtainedthrough species toclimatechangeimpacts,withafocus search startedfromabriefanalysisofcurrent 008). Thesecharacteristics includetopographic dwide asatooltocarryoutenvironmental eachother,andimplicationsforpolicytools

ce withtheresearchobjectivesandemployed resource andhabitatrequirements,already g thosewithlimitedgeographicaldistribution, of aprotectedareasn fied potentialthreatsforbiodiversityofthe by EuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA)in to mitigationofclimatechangeimpactsor ssessment ofbiodiversityhelpedtoidentify suggested byseveralauthorswhoarguethat aptation measures.Ithasbeenusedtoassess zakaznik was chosentoaddresstheresearch toclimatechangeimpacts,identify (seeTable3-2). helpfulinidentifyingand etwork, lengthofthe pressures

or factorsof etal. Dashtidjum Dashtidjum drivers 1990; impact state for

CEU eTD Collection modern climate that twoseparatedatasetshavebeenusedwithin precipitation datawithamonthlyresolutionforth used statisticaldatafromtheSAHdatabase. observations atthestudy area. In ordertoanalyzeandcharacterize Analysis ofmeteorologicaldata 3.3.2 measures ontheterritoryof mitigation. Theywereanalyzedtoidentifyprer programs onbiodiversityconser Another partofthe identify theclimatechange Table 3-2.Vulnerabilityassessmentframework question anddeveloprecommendationsforadaptationmeasures(seeTable3-2). analysis, aswellresultsofthevulnerabilitya Response Impact State Pressure Driver Component

ontheterritoryof

Recommendations foradaptationmeasures Prerequisites foradaptationmeasures Zakaznik Natural adaptationcapacitiesof for managementof Impacts onbiodiversityandimplications species andecosystemstoclimatechange Observed andpotentialresponsesof Fauna, flora,andecosystemsvulnerability change impactonbiodiversity Direct andindirectfactorsofclimate forecast Dashtidjum Zakaznik Climate changeontheterritoryof Research focus

response trends.Thelatterisexplained componentwasbasedontheanal Dashtidjum Zakaznik vation, protectedareasdevelopment,andclimatechange climate changeontheterritoryof Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik : observationsand

37 ssessment, helpedtoaddressthefourthresearch equisites fortheimplementationofadaptation e periodfrom1961to2008.Itshouldbenoted

In particular,Iemployedtemperatureand Dashtidjum thisresearch:onedatasettodescribethe to mitigateclimatechangeimpacts.This andanotherrepresentative datasetto

by thelackofmeteorological review andinterviews on dataobtainedbyarchival Vulnerability assessmentbased archival review based ondataobtainedby calculation oftrendvalues Pearson correlationand Methods the resultsofresearch review, expertsinterviewsand on dataobtainedbyarchival Vulnerability assessmentbased on theresultsofresearch Vulnerability assessmentbased of theresearch review, interviewsandresults on dataobtainedbyarchival Vulnerability assessmentbased

ysis ofnationalpoliciesand Dashtidjum

Zakaznik Ihave CEU eTD Collection used theaveragedatafrommid-mountainmeteorologicalstations mountain area(Figure3-2),thedifferenceisinsi the precipitationtrendvalueshavedifferent temperature hasincreasedby0.5°CforYolarea, high synchronizationofannualmeantemperatures stations, locatedatthealtitudesfrom1,000to2,500masl.Thegeneratedgraphshaveshowna temperature andprecipitationpatternsfortheperi Comparative analysishasbeendoneusingtheMs meteorological stations,andPearson’sRcorrelationanalysis. precipitation trendsgeneratedbothforthemeteoro the consultationswithspecialistsofSA The decisiontouseaveragedata Yol wasclosedin1988andtherearenootherm A needtousetherepresentativedatasetwasim representative dataforthestudyarea(seeexplanationsbelow). climate change represents theclimateofmostterritory station Yol (WMO) (McCarthy for thebaselineperiod1961-1990asrecommend To identifythemodernclimate Figure 3-1.Comparisonofair temperaturepatterns , whichislocatedontheterritoryof ontheterritoryof etal. 2001).Forthispurpose,Iemployeddatafromthemeteorological ontheterritoryof from themid-mountainmeteorologicalstationswastakenafter Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik 38 gnificant forprecipitation(Asanovapers.comm.). signs: -0.2%forYolareaand+7%mid- H, comparativeanalysisofthetemperatureand plied bythefactthatmeteorologicalstation eteorological stationslocatedinthestudyarea. and by0.4°Cformid-mountainareas.Though

ed bytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization od 1961-1987forYolareaandmid-mountain logical stationYolandforthemid-mountain Excel bygeneratingtrendvaluestoidentify (see Figure3-1).Inparticular,meanannual zakaznik fortheperiodfrom1961to2008Ihave zakaznik (Asanova2010b).Toanalyzethe , Ihaveusedmeteorologicaldata thathasbeenidentifiedasa atthealtitude1,283masland Datasource:SAH2010 CEU eTD Collection and identifymainfactorsthatmayhavenegativeimpact onthebiodiversityof meteorological parameters,compareclimatechange case. Asaresult,Iobtainedthetrendvaluesthat allowedmetoanalyzechangesofstudied equal tonumberofyearsminusoneandcoeffici the lineartrends.Tocalculateatrendvalue Ms Excel,usingthecalculatedtemperatureandpr 1990, %)forthebaselineperiodandfollowing (°C) andannualmonthlyra method employingMsExcelsoftware.Ihavecalculatedannualandseasonalmeantemperatures To analyzeclimatechangeontheterritoryof climate changetrendsontheterritoryof meteorological stationshasbeenselectedasthe and correlationanalysis,thetemperaturean positive andhighlysignificant(r=0.598,p<.01, n=27). PrecipitationcorrelationbetweenYolandmi mountain stationsforperiod1961-1987ispositiv correlation betweentwodatasets.Inparticular The Pearson’sRanalysishasbeendonebyusing Figure 3-2.Comparisonofprecipitationpatterns te ofprecipitations(deviationfromtheaverageratefor1961- Dashtidjum Zakaznik (y) Ihaveusedtheequation: 39 , temperaturecorrelationbetweenYolandmid- n=26). Basedontheresultsofcomparative ent isgeneratedbyMsExcelprogramforeach SPSSstatisticalpackag representative datasetandemployedtoanalyze Dashtidjum Zakaznik

e andveryhighlysignificant(r=0.890,p<.001, ecipitation values,toidentifyandcharacterize d precipitationdatafrommid-mountain years upto2008.Ihavegeneratedgraphsin duringthebaselineandfollowingperiods, d-mountain stationsforperiod1961-1987is . Ihaveusedquantitative Data source:SAH2010 y =coefficient*x, e andhasconfirmedthe zakaznik where . x CEU eTD Collection particular. Butthisisatask forfurther,moredetailedresearch. climate changeimpactsingeneralandstrateg not incorporateviewsofotherparties,e.g.b represent organizationsandpeopledealingwith It shouldalsobenotedthatwhilevarioussources ofinformationhavebeenreviewed,they due tothecombinationofclimatechangeandanthropogenic impactsatthestudyarea. has beenemployed.Otheruncertaintiesmayrefe of climatechangeanalysis,inparticularonprecipi provided additionalcredibilitytoitsresults.Meanwh assumptions. Atthesametime,itwassupported The researchwaslimitedbydataavailabili other strategiesaimedatbiodiversityconservationareexcluded. climate change,themainattentiongivenhereis tools tomitigateconsequencesofclimatechange initiative, thoughprotectedareasmanagement mitigation strategiesaimedatreductionofgr The researchfocusesonlyonadaptationtoclim species-climate interactionsanddoesnotconsiderinterspeciesinteractions. species underprotection,aswellecosystems.Bein analyze alltaxathatinhabit on biodiversitysuchashabitatmodificationandpoa change impactsonhumansocialandeconomicas This researchfocusesonlyonclimatechangeim assessment ofspeciesandecosystemsthatoccurinsimilarhabitatsotherreserves. management andpolicyrecommendations.Thesa other elementsoftheprotectedareasnetworkin Dashtidjum Zakaznik employs acasestudyapproachtogainco This researchisafirststepinanalyzingclima Scopeandlimitations 3.4 . Atthesametime,however,recommendat Dashtidjum Zakaznik ty andthusreliesbothonexistingknowledge mprehensive viewontheissueandonlyfocuses te changeimpactsonprotectedareasinTajikistan.It usinesses thatcanhavealternateopinionsregarding eenhouse gasesemissions,includingtheREDD 40 environment protection.Thereby,thepaperdoes pacts onbiodiversityanddoesnotcoverclimate and biodiversityconservationarealsousedas ies toadjustprotectedareasmanagementin . Althoughitconsidersadaptationstrategiesto tation trends,astheaver r totheresultsofvulnerabilityassessment butfocusedmainlyonendangeredandrare

pects, aswellotherhuman-inducedimpacts Tajikistan, especiallythosefocusingonoverall by opinionofhighlyqualifiedexperts,which to strategiesrelevantprotectedareas,and ate changeimpactsanddoesnotconsider ile, therearesomeuncertaintiesintheresults g afirststepresearch,itprimarilyfocuseson me canbestatedregardingvulnerability ching. Theresearchalsodidnotintendto ions providedherearerelevantto age representativedata CEU eTD Collection Tajikistan andAfghanistanalongthePyanjriver( assessment ofbiodiversitycomponentsisfollowedbyashortsummarythemainfindings. assumptions forfuturechanges,includingdi covers themainaspectsofspecies’vulnerability species forbiodiversitycons endemic speciesandwildrelativesofcultural ecosystems. Intheassessment,specialattentionis are analyzedforthemaincomponentsofbiodiver climate changetrends,aswellfuture trends ontheterritoryof several aspectsofthevulnerabilityassessment.It zakaznik climate change.Itconstitutesofsixsections name. South-easternandeasternbordersofthe (Safarov it isborderedbytheKhodjidararivervalleyan longitude. Thebordersof Khazratisho range,between37 mountainous areaofsouthernTajikistan(see et al. bear ( species, includingurial( population ofendangeredspeciesmarkhor( Dashtidjum Zakaznik DashtidjumZakaznik 4.1 This chapterprovidestheresultsofvulnerabilityassessment Vulnerability Assessment ofDashtidjumZakaznik 4.

2003).Thetotalareaofthe Ursus arctosisabellinus etal. itself,itslocation,history,andconservati 2008).Inthesouth, wasestablishedin1972withtheobjectiveofconservationrare Ovis vigneibocharensis Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), anduniquemid-mountainforests(Annex14)(NBBC2003;Safarov ervation ontheterritoryof ° 40’ and38 Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik projections, theclimatechangeimpactson ° 20’ northlatitudeandbetween70 is 51,300 ha (Safarov ), snowleopard( Capra falconeriheptneri mainlypassalongnaturalboundaries.Inthenorth stribution andpopulationsize.Thevulnerability fortheperiodfrom1961to2008.Basedon 41 d onthesouthbycamofKhazratishorange crops ofglobalsignificance,whicharepriority and startsfromthebriefintroductionto Figure 4-1 to climatechange,observationsofchangesand given toendangeredspecies,aswellrareand on goals.Themainbodyofthechaptercovers

Figure 4-1 beginsfromtheanalysisofclimatechange zakaznik sity, includingfauna,floraandalltypesof borderswiththestatereserveofsame )(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), onthesoutheastslopesof coincidewiththestateborderof Uncia uncia etal. ), aswellotherendangered etal. 2008).Itislocatedina 2008). ) andTien-Shanbrown Dashtidjum Zakaznik ° 00’ and70 . Theassessment zakaznik ° 20’ east to

CEU eTD Collection rare andendemicanimalspeciessimilartootherparts ofthe These formationsrepresentthemainattractionsfo and constituteoneofthemainelemen located inallverticalzones,fromfoothillsand network. Aninterestingfeatureofthe territory of respectively. Inthenorth, range, withthehighestpeaksofImam-Askar (Safarov The territoryofthe Figure 4-1.LocationandphysicalmapofDashtidjumZakaznik etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008).Themainorographicelementof zakaznik comprisesdiverseelevationsrangingfrom700to2,911masl zakaznik ischaracterizedbyacontrast ts thatformthelandscapeof encompassesasmallpartoftheDarvazrange.The zakaznik i andAlanyzrakmountains:2,9112,843masl 42 up tohighmountains.Theyhavediverseshapes istheuniquerockyconglomerateformations

r tourists,aswellprovideshelterformany Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 reliefandadensehydrological (Safarov zakaznik istheKhazratisho etal. 2008). (Figure4-2). CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-2.Diverselandscapes ofDashtidjumZakaznik 43

CEU eTD Collection The climateofthearea 4.2.1 Modern climate ClimatechangeinDashtidjumarea 4.2 of annualprecipitation in themajorpartsof summer andautumn is4to12%oftheannu 55% oftheannualamount ofprecipitations.A Table 4-1)(SAH2010).Themaximumamountof Annual averagesumofprecipitationsis538mm, Table 4-1.Averageclimateparametersofthestudyareain1961-1987 -31° mean temperaturethereis7.4° mountain areasof 0.7° 26.8° year withthemaximumtemperatureupto40°Candmeanmonthlyof26° temperature 13.8° temperatures intheregionarepositivewhol winters. Accordingtoobservationdatafrom but, ingeneral,theregioncanbecharacteriz landscape setsconditionsforthesignificantc sudden changesofdiurnalandseasonaltemperatures(Safarov Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum Mean С С Month С andabsoluteminimumtemperature-22° (Safarov respectively.Thecoldestmonthoftheyearis etal. 122 С -22 0.7 51 13 3 I 2008). (SAH2010)(seeTable4-1).Julyand Dashtidjum Zakaznik 152 -21 1.8 13 66 18 II Dashtidjum Zakaznik 239 100 -13 III 7.4 С 22 7 , withtheabsolutemaximumof32° Sum ofprecipitations,mm 13.5 224 116 IV 68 31 -3 Air temperature,° (>2,000masl)thetemperaturesarelower.Theannual 17.6 169 19 83 37 V 1 limatic variationsatdifferentplacesofthe ed byhotanddrysummerswarmhumid canbecharacterizedascontinentalwithfrequent 44 С minimum amountofprecipitation isobservedin the meteorologicalstationYol,meanmonthly 23.7 (SAH2010).Itshouldbenotedthatatthehigh 59 20 VI 39 0 5

al amount(SAH2010).Despite alowamount which indicatesthearidityofregion(see precipitation fallsinthespringseasonandis e courseofayear,withthemeanannualair January,withameanmonthlytemperature zakaznik 26.8 VII 60 18 13 40 0 С

August arethehottestmonthsof VIII 26.0 etal. 15 11 40 0 3 , thereareplaceswhere annual 2008).Adiverseandcomplex 21.2 15 IX 37 0 4 С 7 andabsoluteminimumof Data source:SAH2010 14.7 120 27 33 -3 X 0 -14 8.6 80 29 XI 27 1 133 XII -18 3.5 37 20 0 zakaznik С year 13.8 254 966 538 -22 and 40 , CEU eTD Collection Climate changeontheterritoryof Rateofclimatechange 4.2.2 (Safarov the high-mountainareaswhereadeepersnowcove The maximumthicknessofthesnowcoverconsti cover oflowthicknesscanbeobservedfromth cover, exceptinharshwinterswithalargeamountofsnow(Safarov surrounding mountainranges.Ontheterritoryof high mountaincanyonslocatedwithinthewoodandshrubzonewellprotectedby precipitation frequentlyamountsto1,000-1,500mm(Safarov (section 2.4.1). per year.Thisishigherthanthe0.5° general, thechangeofannualmeantemperatures for theperiod1961to2008is0.8° insignificant decreaseifcomparedwiththebaseline period:by0.7° have alsoconsiderablyincreased(by0.9° in springmeantemperatures, increase inmonthlytemperatures.Analysisof period. Similartothebaselineperiod,increase to 2008.Theincreaseis0.07° temperatures (Figure4-3).Theannual Climate changeinthefollowingyearsupto2008 characterized byaslightdecrease,whichconstitutes-0.1° (by 0.4° analysis ofseasonalchangesinmeantemperatures monthly temperaturesthroughtheyear,excep 1990 haveincreasedby0.5° the baselineperiod(Figure4-3).Inparticular, clear trendofincreasetheannualmeantem which resultedinsomeyearsbeingcolderorwarm to dataprocessed,therearesignificantchanges the meteorologicalstationslocatedataltitudes С etal. ), summer(by0.3° 2008). С С С orby0.02° which haveincreasedby3.2° ), andespeciallyautumn(by0.8° peryear,whichisalmostthree Dashtidjum Zakaznik meantemperaturesincreasedby1.3° С trendobservedinthemajori С С .), theautumnandwintertemperatureshaveshown peryear.Thisincreaseiscausedbythein the annualmeantemperaturesforperiod1961- seasonal anomalieshasshownsignificantchanges 45 of 1,000to2,500masl(section3.3.2).According e middleofDecembertotheFebruary. peratures, whichcanbeobservedalreadyduring t FebruaryandMarch(Asanova2010a).The in airtemperaturesduringtheperiodanalyzed, of annualmeantemperaturesiscausedbythe

tutes 30cm(Asanova2010b).Anexceptionis r canbeobservedforalongerperiodoftime ischaracterizedbyafurtherincreaseofair has revealedtheirincreaseduringthewinter er (Figure4-3).Atthe isconfirmedbythean zakaznik С . С etal. . Whilethesummertemperatures times higherthanforthebaseline , thereisalmostnostablesnow С ). Spring,onthecontrary,is 2008).Thesearemiddleand С etal. ty ofthecountry’sregions and0.3° 2008).Usuallyasnow С same time,thereisa fortheperiod1991 alysis ofdatafrom С respectively.In С or0.02° С

CEU eTD Collection Table 4-2.Monthlyprecipitationanomali as wellMayandDecember. seen fromTable4-2,themostsignificantdecrea precipitation forthemajorityofmonths,except significant decreasein32%(Figure4-4).A 4-2). Inthefollowingyearup2008,anomaliesin analysis, theincreaseinprecipitationhasbeen is 12%oftheaverageprecipita 4-4, thebaselineperiodischaracterizedbyanin differences betweenthebaselineperiodandfollowing18years.AscanbeseenfromFigure amount ofprecipitation.Analysisannual Climate changeontheterritoryof Figure 4-3.Annualairtemperatureanomaliesinmid-mountainareas 1991-2008 1961-1990 Month Precipitation, deviationfromtheaverag 24 0 I -20 II 7 III -2 1 tion ratefortheperiod1961-1990(Figure4-4).Inamonthly es inmid-mountainareasofTajikistan Dashtidjum Zakaznik -31 IV -8 -70 -23 V observed ineightoutoftwelvemonths(seeTable 46 significant increaseofannualprecipitation,which and monthlychangeshasrevealedsignificant se ofprecipitationswasobservedinSeptember, -23 VI 13 precipitationpatternsarecharacterizedbythe monthly analysishasshownadecreaseof

e precipitationratein1961-1990(%) February,OctoberandNovember.Ascanbe VII 23 isalsoconfirmedbythechangesin 0 VIII -40 11 -150 IX 17 Data source:SAH2010 Data source:SAH2010 18 36 X -10 XI 19 XII -29 36 year -32 12 CEU eTD Collection for Dashtidjum’sbiodiversity andleadtothelossofvaluablespecies. reach 20%forthelastcentury (Asanova2010a).It end of2050maybe1.8to2.9° of the (Makhmadaliev 4.4). Afurtherclimatewarming,whichisproj air temperatures,whichmayleadtoconsiderab spring precipitationimportantforplantsvegetation, biodiversity of The identifiedclimatechangeanomaliesma (Safarov pers.comm.;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). and meltingofsnowfieldsonthetopmo highlight desiccationof30-50%springs, temperatures duringthelastwinters(Boboevpe in particularheavyrains,whichveryoften pers.comm.; Faizovpers.comm.).Theyhavealso in wintertimevalleysandmid-mountainareas, who emphasizehotteranddriersummersinthelast Climate changeontheterritoryof 1990-2008) arecomparedtotheaveragemeanprecipitationfor1961-1990 Figure 4-4.Annualprecipitationanomaliesinmid-mount zakaznik etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik . AccordingtoSAHprojections,anincrease 2008;Asanova2010a),mayaggravatetheconsequences forthebiodiversity С , whilethedecreaseofannualamountprecipitation may Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Themostadverseeffectmaybe especiallyinthesouthernareaof ected tocontinueattherateobservednowadays 47 le changesinspeciesphenology(sections4.3and lead tomudflowsandunusualextremelycold y haveasignificantnegativeimpactonthe anditsincreaseinhighmountainareas(Boboev noticed morefrequentextremeweatherevents,

mayconsiderablyaggravate theconsequences untain rangesduetohigherairtemperatures rs.comm.; Faizovpers.comm.).Expertsalso ain areas.Thetrendsforbothperiods(1961-1990, decade,aswelladecreaseofsnowcover aswellthesignific hasalsobeenobservedbyitsinhabitants ofannualmeantemperaturebythe exertedbythedecreaseof Datasource:SAH2010 ant increaseofspring Dashtidjum Zakaznik CEU eTD Collection and cattlegrazingthatlead tothedegradationofsuitablehabitats(Safarov expansion ofurbanandagriculturalareas.Among leads toitsdecline.Themaindirectfactors territory ofthe urial, andsnowleopard(Safarov focused ontheconservationofkeyspeciesgl al. of theTertiaryperiod(Safarov species (seeFigure4-5)withaconsiderableamou landscapes andclimates,haveresultedintheform with theCentralAsianmountain-desertregion. Afghan Depressionandconstituteapartofthela 2008). Ninearelistedas‘endangered’andone Forty speciesofthe ‘endangered’ statusandtheotherthreeare‘vul (see Annex7).Sevenspeciesofvertebratesar Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik (Safarov development ofdiversefauna,whichpossessesch Pamir-Alai andHinduKush,theirproximity A uniquegeographicallocationof Faunavulnerabilitytoclimatechange 4.3 Figure 4-5.FaunadiversityinDashtidjumZakaznik 1988)(seeAnnex9). etal. onthesouthernbranchesofKhazra

2008).Anotherfactorthatcontributestothespeciesdiversityislocationof zakaznik Invertebrates Arachnida Protozoa Mollusca provideshabitatformanyrare,vulner Insecta ~3,000 Vermes zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik , itsbiodiversityexperiencessignif

Fauna diversity inDashtidjumZakaznik ~ 3,800 etal. areincludedintheRedDataBookofTajikistan(Safarov

etal. 2008). ~800 Dashtidjum Zakaznik

2008)

isazoologicalreservean . Despite theprotectionregimeestablishedon as ‘criticallyendangered’species(Abdusaljamov 48 obal andregionalimportance,includingmarkhor,

that affectfaunaspeciesincludepoachingand nerable’ species(seeAnnex8)(IUCN2010c). rge migrationcorridorthatconnectsthisregion nt ofendemicandrarespecies,aswellrelics

indirect factorsareforestcuttingforfuelwood ation ofrichfaunarepresentedbynearly4,000 e listedintheIUCNRedList;fourhave All these,combinedwiththevariabilityof

Datasource:Safarov aracteristics ofvariousmountainousregions to HimalayasandTibet,haspromotedthe tisho range,whichpassthroughtheTajik-

betweenlargemountainsystemsof able andendangeredspeciesoffauna icant anthropogenicpressure,which Vertebrates –174species

Mammalia –33 Amphibia -2 Reptilia –17 d itsprioritymeasuresare Aves –117 Pisces –5 etal. 2008).

et al. 2008 etal. et

CEU eTD Collection productivity (Safarov mentioned speciesdependsontheprosperityof ( satunini markhor (Figure4-7),urial stone marten( inhabitants ofthe amount ofmammalspeciesinTajikistan(NBBC2003;Safarov Mammals of 4.3.1 Mammals change ispresentedbelow. of does notallowidentifyingotherchanges,includ are mainlyrepresentedbyshiftsinspecies’distri responses toclimatechangehavealready most vulnerabletoclimatechange(Millsap well asrareandendemicspecieswithnarrowan invasive species(section2.1.1).Speciesthatare availability ofsuitablehabitats,desynchronization The mainfactorsoftheclimatechangeimpactincludechangesinfoodabundanceand leading tochangesintheirphenology,populati aggravates thedegradationofhabitats(s Climate changeisyetanotherthreatfortheanimalworldof Tajikistan as‘rare’species,includinglesserhorseshoe ( bat ( most widelyspreadspeciesarecommonpipistrelle ( foothill zoneswithsavannoidecosystems(Safarov ( Insectivores in including climatechange,affectsthepopulationoftheirmammalinhabitants. teniotis ( Dryomus nitedula Hemiechinus auritus Rhinolophus ferrumequinum Dashtidjum Zakaznik Myotis oxygnathus ) (seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov ), tolaihare( Dashtidjum Zakaznik Martes foina ) andmice(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik ) andlesserwhite-toothedshrew( zakaznik ). Fouroutofsevenspeciesthisorderarelisted intheRedDataBookof Lepus tolai etal. , aswelltheassessmentoftheir ), whiskeredbat( 2008).Thus,anyfactorthataffects ), wildboar( (Figure 4-8),Tien-Shanbrownbear,Indianporcupine( includebadger( ), andredmarmot( include33species,whichc etal. etal. arerepresentedbytwosp been observedforseveralanimalsofthe 1988;Safarov Sus scrofa Myotis mystacinus 2008).Stateofthepopulationmajority etal. Meles meles ee section4.5),butalsodirectlyaffectsanimals 49 on sizeanddistributionrange(seesection2.1.2). ing phenological.Abriefoverviewofthespecies bution ranges,asthelackofconstantmonitoring already endangeredbyanthropogenicfactors,as 1990;Mkanda1996;Malcolm1998).Species’ d scattereddistributionranges,areamongthe

), Siberianibex( mid-mountain forestecosystemsand etal. of speciesinteraction,aswellspread Marmota caudata Pipistrellus pipistrellus С Rhinolophus hipposideros etal. ), fox( rocidura suaveolens 2008).Fromcheiropteraspecies,the responses andvulnerabilitytoclimate ), andfree-tailedbat( 2008). Dashtidjum Zakaznik. Vulpes vulpes thestateoftheseecosystems, onstitutes 39%fromthetotal etal. ), aswelltreedormouse ecies: long-earedhedgehog Capra sibirica 2008).Thekeymammal ) andlessermouse-eared ), whichmainlyinhabit ), wolf( ), greaterhorseshoe ) (Figure4-6), Tadarida teniotis zakaznik Hystrix leucura С It notonly anis lupus . They ), CEU eTD Collection representatives ofmammals inhabiting well asbymigrationto higher elevations.A mammals, similartoother species,mainlyrespond water resources.Somespeciesarealsosensitiv the populationsofmammalsincludefeedabunda factors arealsomorevulnerabletoclimatechan vulnerable thanselectivemonophagousspecies. Sp on diversegroupofplantsoranimals,andare habitat requirementsandlimitedmigrationcapaci various habitatsandareabletomigrateupwardslessvulnerablethanspecieswithspecific mainly ontheiradaptivecapacityaswellthestateofpopulations.Speciesthatoccurin Climate changeimpactonthespeciesofmammalsvariesfordifferentanddepends prevalent istheSiberianibexrepresentedbyaverysmallpopulation(Safarov most prevalentspeciesoflarg 2010c) andtheRedDataBookofTajikistan(Abdusaljamov ibex andwildboar.Twoofthem–markhoran Annex 8)(IUCN2010c).Ungulatesofthe 2008) (seeAnnex9).Thelatterisalsolistedinth Turkestan lynx( ( ‘endangered’ or‘declining’species,includingCentralAsianotter( small populations.SixoutoftencarnivorousmammalsarelistedintheRedDataBookas‘rare’, Zakaznik The orderofcarnivoreshasthehighest (Safarov the rodents-redmarmotoccursinsub-alpine areas andisevenlydistributedacrossthe Book ofTajikistan(seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov only endangeredspeciesofthisorderistheIndi Turkestan rat( represented bywidelyspreadspecies,includingforestmouse( occurs atthealtitudesrangingfrom1,200to2,800masl(Safarov The onlyrepresentativeoflagomorphs-tolaihare( Mustela nivalispallida etal. (Safarov 2008). Rattus turkestanicus Felis lynxisabellina etal. ), marbledpolecat( 2008).Itcomprisesoftenspecies, e animalsontheterritoryof ) andZaisanmolevole( ), andsnowleopard(Abdusaljamov Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik number ofspeciesamongthemammals Vormela peregusnakoshevnikovi zakaznik 50 brief overviewofthevulnerability ofdifferent an porcupine(Figure4-9) and alpinezonesinsmallscatteredpopulations e IUCNRedListasan‘endangeredspecies’(see ge. Themainclimatechangefactorsthataffect d urialarelistedintheIUCNRedList(IUCN etal. possible toswitchtheirnutritivebaseareless ty. Similartothis,polytrophicspeciesthatfeed (Safarov

e totemperatureanomalies.Thespeciesof to climatechangebyphenological changes,as nce andavailabilityofsuitablehabitats Lepus tolai arerepresentedbymarkhor,urial,Siberian ecies thatarealreadythreatenedbyother 1988).Itinhabitslowandmid-mountain Ellobius tancrei) etal. ispresentedbelow. but theirmajorityisrepresentedby Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. ) hasawidegeographicrangeand 2008).Anotherrepresentativeof etal. Lutra lutraseistanica) Apodemus sylvatycus) 1988).Thewildboaristhe 2008).Rodentsaremainly ), Tien-Shanbrownbear, etal. (Safarov , listedintheRedData etal. 1988;Safarov et al. 2008). ; andtheleast , leastweasel 2008).The , endemic Dashtidjum etal.

CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-7.Markhor Figure 4-6 . Siberian ibex Photocredit:Saidov2008 51

Photo credit:Shakulo2008 CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-9.Indianporcupine Figure 4-8.Urial 52

Photo credit:Amirov2009 Photo credit:Michel2009 CEU eTD Collection the territoryof xerophytization ofvegetation mayaffectthepopula density dependsontheavailabilityofgreenfodde species mainlyinhabitsmid-mountainforests(Safarov the populationoftolaihareisdecrease this speciesallowsrestoringthepopulationin the territoryof the population.Aconsiderabledeclineofto snow cover(Saidovpers.comm.).Thelatterconstr The onlyrepresentativeoflagomorphs-thetolaiha and greaterhorseshoes(Saidovpers.comm.). activities thathavenarrowdistributionranges vulnerable toclimatechangespeciesofbats increase ofthepopulationspeststhatconsti elevation (Sokolov1963;Hutson insectivores, duetotheirabilitymigrate particular thecommonpipistrelleandlessermo the sametimeadaptivecapacitiesofth increase ofairtemperaturesandearlierawakenin Similar toinsectivores,thecheiropteraspeciesof population ontheterritoryof change wouldnegativelyaffectthelong-eared range andmigratetohigherelevationsornorthward pers.comm.). Despiteitswidedistribution,itis the adaptationofhedgehogtoclimatech which attheendleadstodisruptionofrepr hibernating animalsarecharacterizedbythe earlier awakeningofthisspecies,andleadsto conducted byDustovhasshownthatincreaseof very sensitivetothechangesinambienttempera long-eared hedgehoginhabitsdrysteppe Climate changeimpactontheinsectivoresof Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik duringthesnowywinters.At Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. (Saidovpers.comm.). 2008).Thebatsmayalsobe s andareaswithlightedshrubs(Stubbe e batsoccurringontheterritoryof sluggishness behaviourandtrophicdisturbances, are speciesalreadythreatenedbyanthropogenic 53 Dashtidjum Zakaznik subsequent years.Anotherfactorthatmayaffect unlikely thatthisspecieswillshiftitsdistribution tute theirforage(Saidovpers.comm.).Themost lai harepopulationhasalreadybeenobservedon and low-densitypopulations,inparticularlesser oductive functionAnotherfactorthatconstrains thedisruptionofitsnervoussystem.Awaken tures (Dustovpers.comm.).Laboratoryresearch hedgehogandmaycausethedeclineofits in forageabundance(Saidovpers.comm.).This g fromthehibernation(Saidovpers.comm.).At long distancesandoccupyhabitatsathigher (Dustovpers.comm.).

ange isitslowmigrationcapacity(Dustov theambienttemperatureby1.5-2°Ctriggers ains accesstoforageaffectingsurvivalrateof r. Thereforedecreaseofforestedareasand Dashtidjum Zakaznik s. Thereforeitishighlyprobablethatclimate re issensitivetothecoldwinterswithheavy tion ofthetolaihare,causing itsdeclineon use-eared bat,arehigherthanthoseofthe etal. 2008)anditsreproductionrate same time,thereproductionrateof islikelytobenegative.The nefit fromtheclimate-driven canbeaffectedbythe etal. zakaznik 2008),is , in CEU eTD Collection observed ontheterritoryof elevation. Theexpansionoftheupperboundar of airtemperatures,aswellalackforagere the populationofIndianporcupineandleadto difficulties inadaptationtoclimatechange.Itis selectively herbivorous,feedingonlyonspeci fodder isthejunipervole( Another speciesofrodentsthatishighlydepend reproduction rate,andleadtothedeclineofitspopulations(Saidovpers.comm.). decades, andshorteningofitsactivityperi Lack ofgreenplantspromotesearlierhibernat xerophytization ofvegetationnega and alpinemeadowsrequiressignificantamount population oftheTurkestanratanddecreaseitsde productivity andreductionofforestareasdueto endemic speciesdependsonthestateandprodu mesophylic forests,inparticulartheTurkestan The mostvulnerablespeciesofrodentstoth Turkestan lynx(Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). forests, inparticularbroad-leafed forests, disturbances inanimalphysiology(Saidovpers affect thephenologyofthisspeciesandpromote and decreaseofthepopulationde time, thismaynotaffectthemagnitudeof mid-mountain mesophylicandconiferecosystem ration. Inparticular,theTien-Shanbrownbearma main factorthataffectscarnivoresisthedecrease difficulties inshiftingtheirdistributionranges climate change.Theymigratetolongdistances A majorityofthecarnivoresoccurringin (Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.;Saidovpers.comm.). anthropogenic pressure,mayunderminethepopula Microtus carruthersi Dashtidjum Zakaznik nsity ontheterritoryof tively affectthisspeciesandcausechangesinitsphenology. Dashtidjum Zakaznik may alsoaffectthepopulation oftheendangered ion -uptotwoweeksincomparisonwithprevious (Saidov pers.comm.;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).The od. Thelattermostprobablywouldaffectthe population, butwillcausethenorthwardmigration ). SimilartotheTurkestanrat,thisspeciesisa .comm.). Climate-inducedreductionofmountain 54 followingthepreyandthuswillnotexperience rat (Saidovpers.comm.).Thepopulationofthis probablethatclimatechangewouldalsoaffect offorageresources,whichconstitutetheirmain sources, forcesthisspeciestomigrateathigher fic varietiesofplants,andmayexperience ent onforesthabitatsandavailabilityofgreen

earlier hibernationandawakingassociated . Climatechangeimpacts,combinedwiththe e climatechangearethoseassociatedwith s (seesections4.5.3and4.5.4).Atthesame y ofitsdistributionrangehasalreadybeen nsity. Theredmarmotthatinhabitssub-alpine climatearidizationmaynegativelyaffectthe y beaffectedbythereductionoffruittrees of greenfodder.Aridizationclimateand its decline(Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).Increase ctivity ofwalnutforests.Adecreasein tion ofthisendangeredandrarespecies zakaznik hascertaincapacitytoadapt . Climatechangewillalso CEU eTD Collection the urialonterritory ofthe fodder, combinedwiththe anthropogenicpre the upperelevations,similar tomarkhor(Saido lower roundedstonyhills(Valdez2008b),anditis resources andforcestomigrateupwards(Saidovpe 1988; Safarov comm.). Thoughitmainlyinhabi The urialisthemostvulnerableungulateof Dashtidjum Zakaznik zone oftherangewilldecrease.Thelatterha represented bysuitableforitrocklandscapes markhor mayexpandtheupperboundaryofitsra the temperaturefactoritself,wouldcauseshifts population (Safarov affected thehydrophilousvegetation(section4.5.4) Climate change,incombinationwithanthropogenic and ferula( constitutes herbaceousplants,suchasmeadowgrass( urial –isthedecreaseofforageresources(Sai climate change.Themainfactorthataffects The ungulatesof northwards (Saidovpers.comm;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). species wouldcompletelydisappe the populationofsnowleopard(Saidovpers.comm. population (Kokorin a rowcanaffecttheoffspringofsnowle migration tolowerelevations,increasingdeathrate(Kokorin temperature changes,butitcanbeaffectedby follows theungulates(Safarov summers, mainlyathighmountainmeadows,and Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.).Inthe Zakaznik Although thesnowleopardisoneof , itsmainhabitatsarelocatedoutside, Ferula kokanica etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. (Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). 2008),increasedtemperatureandlack et al. 2008;Valdez2008a).Itislikelythat 2001).Climate-drivendecreaseofungulatesmayalsoadverselyaffect ), andleavessproutsofjunipertrees(Abdusaljamov etal. zakaznik ts xerophyticecosystemsofthe ar fromtheterritoryof zakaznik 2008).Thesnowleopardisnotparticularlysensitiveto areprobablythemostvulnerablegroupofmammalsto . Theurialisalsooneof thespeciescanbeobservedoccasionallyin carnivores occurringontheterritoryof Dashtidjum Zakaznik ssure, maycompletelyundermine thepopulationof population ofthetwokeyspecies–markhorand dov pers.comm.).Thefeedofthemarkhormainly (Saidov pers.comm.).Itsoccurrenceinthelower 55 the heavysnowcoverthatpreventsitsseasonal v pers.comm.).Lackof suitable habitatsand s alreadybeenobservedontheterritoryof opard andresultintheunderminingof

in thedistributionrangeofthisspecies.The unlikely thatitwillinhabitrockylandscapesof rs.comm.). Atthesametime,urialprefers nge andoccupyterritoriesabove2,500masl factorsincludingcattlegrazing,hasalready in thewintersatlowerelevationswhenit at higherelevations(Saidovpers.comm.; , leadingtothedeclineofmarkhor Poa relaxa ). Ingeneral,itismostprobablethatthis ofprecipitationaffectsitsforage et al. Dashtidjum Zakaznik thelackofforagerecourses,and toclimatechange(Saidovpers. ), pieplant( 2001).Severalharshwintersin zakaznik the fewspeciesofTajikistan (Abdusaljamov Rheum maximoviczii andmigrate etal. Dashtidjum 1988). etal. )

CEU eTD Collection dove ( aluco daphanea birds belongstotheEuropeanfaunatyp Turkestan, Indo-African,Chinese,TibetanandMong zakaznik – 69,followedbythebirdsofprey( within 15orders(Safarov Birds arethemostdiverseclassofvertebrates 4.3.2 Birds forces itsmigrationstohigherlati unfavorable conditionsforthepresenceof elevation from2,500masl(Abdusaljamov At present,thisspeciesinhabitsthehighmountainnivalzoneof The mainfactorthatmayaffectthepopulationof 1968-1969 and1971-1972(Valdez2008b). 2010d). MassdeathofthisspecieshasbeenobservedinTajikistanduringtheharshwinters listed intheIUCNRedListasaspecieswhich rufinus blue whistling-thrush,Indian goldenoriole( Background speciesofthe bilkevitchi ( Tibetan complexesare:Himalayansnowcock( and paradiseflycatcher( increase insurvivalratesoftheoffspring(Zaumyslova2006). air temperaturesinwintersandspringsassocia change onthepopulationofthis,aswellother constitute themainpartofitsforage(Saidovpers.comm.)Thepositiveinfluenceclimate zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik likely thatclimatechangewouldcausecompletedi Mycerobas carnipes ), andblackbird( ) (Safarov Streptopelia senegalensis ), ring dove ( consistsofspeciesthevariousorigin ’s ungulates–wildboar,maybeaffectedby ), andbluewhistling-thrush( etal. ), ibisbill( (Saidovpers.comm.).Thepopulation 2008).Speciesthatarecommon forfoothillsincludelammergeyer( Columba palumbuscasiotis Turdus merula Terpsiphone paradiseleucogaster etal. ), commonmyna( low-lying andopenareas of 2008).Theorderof Ibidorhyncha struthersii tudes, astherearenohigherelevat ) . Falconiformis Myophonus caeruleus Nesting speciesofIndo-Africanoriginsinclude: laughing e. Amongthemare:goldeneagle( the Siberianibexonterritoryof etal. Oriolus orioluskundoo ), nightjar( Acridotheres tristis decline hasbeencausedbyclimatechange(IUCN 56 ) representedby13speci Tetraogallus himalayensis

1988).Increaseofairtemperaturescreates species, mayberepresentedbytheincreaseof ted decreaseoftheanim ), streakedlaughing-thrush( Passeriformes sappearance ofthisspeciesfromthearea s, includingEuropean,CentralAsian,Iran- ). Dashtidjum Zakaznik Siberian ibexisthelackofsuitablehabitats.

olian. Theconsiderablenumberofnesting Among representativesofHimalayanand thelackofwalnutsandothernutsthat )(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik Caprimulgus europaeusi ), long-tailedshrike( hasthehighestnumberofspecies of anotherrepresentativethe ), andlong-leggedbuzzard ( etal. ions available.Therefore,itis 2008). Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), white-wingedgrosbeak , comprising117species es. Theavifaunaofthe als’ deathratesandan arerepresentedby ), tawnyowl( Garrulax lineatus Aquila chrysaetus Lanius schach zakaznik Gypaetus atthe Buteo Strix and ), CEU eTD Collection ( Emberizidae represented byalpinechough( masl includingalpineandsub-alpinezones(Mur to negative.Itmaybebeneficialforthespecies Climate changeimpactondifferentspeciesofbirds ( including ‘endangered’sakerfalconandEgyptian 1988; Safarov thrush, littleswift( partridge ( ‘declining’ snake-eagle( Tajikistan, including‘endange Twelve speciesoftheavifauna of junipertrees(Safarov common backgroundbirdofmountainforests;it ( kakelik) with rarewoodandshrubvegetationareth barbatus hemachalanus areas ofTajikistan(Saidov pers.comm.).Avifaunaof promotes theintroduction ontheterritoryof most likelycausedbytheincreaseofairtempe During thelasttwentyyearsitsdistributionrange korschun territory of pers.comm.). Atthesametimethiscanresul distribution ranges,bothupwardsandnorthwards, andoccupyavailableniches(Murodov A majorityofthespeciesbirdshassufficient mi areas hasalreadybeenobserved(Murodovpers.comm.). previously coveredbysnowfields.Increasedpopulati Under analteredclimate,theycanexpandthei Cannabia cannabiabella Columba eversmanni Emberiza calandra ) thatpreviouslynestledin that Ammoperdix griseogularis families,includingTurkestangreenfinch(

Dashtidjum Zakaznik is oneofthemostprevalentbirdspecies et al. ), red-headedbunting( ) (seeAnnex8)(IUCN2010c). 2008).Threespeciesofbirdsthe Apus affinisgalilejensis ), peregrinefalcon( ), Indiangrosbeak( etal. Circaetus feroxheptneri 2008). red’ speciessakerfalcon( . Thelatterhasalreadyha ) Pyrrhocorax graculusforsythia , mid-mountain areasofthe peregrine falcon,bluewhistling-thrush Dashtidjum Zakaznik ) andotherspecies Falco peregrinusbabylonicus Emberiza bruniceps e mainhabitatsofkeklikorchukar( Coccothraustes coccothrausteshumi ),

57 t inadisappearanceof ratures (Murodovpers.comm.).Thesamefactor Egyptian vulture( thatinhabithighmountainareasabove2,000 zakaznik has significantlyshiftednorthwards,whichwas

mainly occursinmapleforestswithfragments vulture,and‘vulnerable’pale-backedpigeon odov pers.comm.).Thesespeciesaremainly r distributionrangesandoccupyterritories on densityofthesespeciesinhighmountain gration capacitiesandisabletoshifttheir Chloris chloristurkestanicus zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik Falco cherrugcoatsi Dashtidjum Zakaznik ofnewspecies,mainlyfrom southern ), androckbunting( are listedintheRedDataBookof

(see Annex9)(Abdusaljamov )

ppened totheblackkite( zakaznik and birdsfrom arelistedintheIUCNRedList, ) andringdove.Rockyslopes zakaznik Neophron percnopterus (Murodovpers.comm.). some speciesfromthe ), aswell‘rare’and . Theringdoveisa variesfrompositive ), commonbunting , alreadycomprises streaked laughing- ), Turkestanlinnet Emberiza ciapar Alectoris kakelik Fringillidae ), see-see Milvus et al. and ).

CEU eTD Collection blue whistling-thrush,streaked laughing-thr same reason,itisunlikely thatclimatechange rate andisabletorestorethepopulationinsubsequent years(Murodovpers.comm.).Bythe Murodov pers.comm.).Atthesametime,thisspecies ischaracterizedbythehighreproduction death ofthechukarhasalreadybeenobserved 1988). Thereforedeepsnowcoverconstrainsits higher elevationsinasearchoffood,butis populations (Saidovpers.comm.;Murodovpers.comm.). Harsh wintersandassociatedincreaseofthe pers.comm.; Abdusaljamov be affectedbythedecreaseofforestareas, al. forests of effect onpopulationofonetherarespecies– aridization ofclimate,aswellalternationwarmandcoldyears.Theformerhasnegative negative effectsaredecreaseofthearea favorable conditionsforbirds’populations,lead insects, includingpeststhatconstitutenutritive One ofthepositiveeffectsclimatechangeon phenology ofmigratorybirds(Murodovpers.comm.). of the pipit ( rupestris pers.comm.) noted winteringofsomespecies,includingbarnswallow( shift constitutesuptotwoweeks.Inadditionea birds occursfromseventotendaysearlierthan the timeofspringarrivalthesebirds(Murodov Zakaznik Climate changehasalreadyaffectedthephenologyofmanyspeciesoccurringin their ranges,inparticularir several speciesthatpreviouslyinhabitedareaswi 1988). Anothervulnerablespeciesistheparadi Anthus camprestrisgriseus zakaznik ), rockwagtail( . Acomprehensivestudythatexploredarrival Dashtidjum Zakaznik

astheydidinthepast,whichconfirmsinfluenceofclimatechangeon Motocilla cinereacaspica et al. ). Duringthelastwarmwintersth andcanleadtoitsdecline(M is billandcommonsand-piper( 1988). ush andlittleswift(Murodov pers.comm.). notabletowalkonadeepsnow(Abdusaljamov ), whitewagtail( covered bymid-mountainforests(section4.5.4), impact willcausethedecline ofsuchrarebirdsas 58 in extremelysnowywinters(Saidovpers.comm.; as wellbylackofprecipitation(Murodov snow covercancausethedeclineofchukar birds’ populationsisanincreasedabundanceof itwas25-30yearsago.Forsomespeciesthis migration leadingtodeathofstarvation.Mass

th warmerclimate,butsignificantlyexpanded se flycatcherthatrequiresdenseforestandcan ing totheincreaseoftheirdensity.Among base ofthemajorityspecies.Itprovides pers.comm.).Atpresent,arrivalofmigratory rlier arrivalofmigratorybirds,scientistshave the ringdove,whichinhabitsmid-mountain of migratorybirdshasidentifiedshiftsin Inawintertimethisspeciesmigratesat urodov pers.comm.;Abdusaljamov Hirundo rustica Motocilla albadukhunensis ese speciesdidnotleavethearea Tringa hypolevcos ), sand martin ( ) (Murodov ), andtawny Dashtidjum Riparia etal. et

CEU eTD Collection several speciesthatareendemicforthePamir- total amountofreptilespeciesinTajikistan(NBBC2003;Safarov Reptiles of Reptiles 4.3.3 endangered sakerandperegrinefalcons(Murodovpers.comm.;Abdusaljamov during snowywinters,aswellreductionof can beaffectedbythedecreaseofareassuitabl as ofchukar.Althoughthesnak Abundance ofthelammergeyercanbeaffectedby rate, aswellloweradaptivecapa peregrine andsakerfalcons,aremorevulnerable The birdsofpreylistedinthe the long-leggedskink( Zakaznik Annex 8)(IUCN2010c).Ingeneral,thetypical illegal exporting(Safarov due totheconversionoffoot was quitenumerousinthepast,butnowadaysit The onlyrepresentativeof snake ( ( the RedDataBookofTajikistanas‘declining’ their medicinaluse(NBBC2003;Safarov affected byhumanactivities,inparticularillega snakes occurringinTajikistan(Safarov The orderof water snake( mountain racer( ( turanica caucasica), Naja oxiana Gymnodactylus fedtschenkoi Lycodon striatusbicolor ) (Safarov areshrinkingduetohuman activities.Anothe Turkestanagama( Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), blindsnake( Natrix tesselata Serpentes Coluber ravergieri et al. hasthehighestnumberofspeciesand Eumesces schneideri) 2008) etal. ), Turkestanagama,Asiansnake-eyedskink( ), andorientalboa( ) (seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov Testudines Typhlops vermicularis 2003).ItislistedintheIUCNRedListas‘vulnerable species’(see . Agama lehmanni Red DataBookofTajikistan,includinglammergeyer,snake-eagle arerepresentedby17species,whichconstitutes36%fromthe The backgroundspeciesarerepresentedbynaked-toedgecko e-eagle maybenefitfromthepotentialabundanceofreptiles,it ), Pallas'coluber( hill habitatstocultivatedfarmlands,aswellpoaching and order–CentralAsiansteppetortoise( city (Murodovpers.comm.;Abdusaljamov etal. from the etal. 2008).Themajorityofth ) , Alai mountains,includingCaucasianagama( Eryx tataricus 2003).Fiveofthespecies 59 ), orientalboa,lebetinaviper,andstriatedwolf habitatsofthemostreptilespecies and CentralAsianlebetinaviper and ‘rare’species,includingCentralAsiancobra suitable habitats,canalsoaffectpopulationsof e foritsnesting.Declineofchukarpopulations l catchingaimedatreceivingsnake’svenomor to climatechangeduetheirlowreproduction

s populationsexperienceconsiderabledecline Sauria the decreaseinnumbersofungulates,aswell Elaphe dione), r representativeofendangered speciesis order,whichoccursmainly inthelower ) (Safarov et al. constitutes of9out18species 1988;Safarov grasslizard( etal. etal. 2008).Theycomprisesof e speciesareconsiderably 2008). ofsnakesarelistedin Agreonomys horsfieldi Ablepharus brandti et al. et al. Ophisaurus apodus)

2008). ( 1988). Vipera lebetina et al. Dashtidjum Agama 1988). ), ) , CEU eTD Collection from hibernation(Saidovpers.comm.). temperatures andearlierplantvegetationwouldlead in lowerreproductionratesandleadtothepopulation d aestivation ofthisspecies.Shorterperioda the steppetortoise,whichcoincideswithve forage abundanceforthisherbivorousspecies.As temperatures shortensthevegetationperiodof of climatechange,mainlyduetothechangesin Unlike snakesandsomelizards,theCentralAsian as loess-typerocksandwaterbodies(Nadjmidinovpers.comm.). conditioned byalowcapacityforverticalmigrati snakes andlizardsthatpreferhabitatsinthe necessity toshiftdistributionrangeupwardsmi occurrence ontheterritoriesupto3,100masl.At occurred attheelevationsfrom2,000to2,700 Such expansionhasalreadybeenobservedforthe their occupationofupperterritorieswithcooler Increase ofairtemperaturecanalsopromotethe happen onlyifanthropogenicpressure(poaching) Asian cobra,lebetinaviper,andblindsnake.At particular, increaseinambienttemperaturecanlead mainly representedbyloessandrockslopeswithlightedephemerousvegetation.In resources representedbysmallrodentsandpestin increase oftheirpopulations.Themainmechanism precipitation maycreatefavorableconditionsforth climate (Nadjmidinovpers.comm.).Thatiswh Zakaznik It ismostprobablethatclimatechange ‘rare’ and‘declining’species(seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov reaches ofthePyanjriver(Safarov wouldbepositive,astheyarerepresented et al. 2003).ItislistedintheRedDataBookofTajikistanas impactonthemajorityofreptiles foothill areasaroundhumansettlements.Itmaybe ctivity andlackofaccumulatednutrientsmayresult 60 masl, lastmonitoringobservationsconfirmedits ons, aswellbylackofoptimalhabitats,such vegetation (Saidovpers.comm.).Increaseofair y bothtemperatureincreaseanddecreaseof expansion ofdistributionrangesreptilesand in thepastclimate(Nadjmidinovpers.comm.). the sametime,itshouldbenoted,thatmay ght causenegativeeffectonsomespeciesof getation periodofplants,andprovokeearlier thesametime,inalong-termperspective, is minimized(Nadjmidinovpers.comm.). steppe tortoisemayexperiencenegativeimpact

savannoid plants,leadingtothedecreaseof a resultitmayshortentheperiodofactivity sects, aswellexpansionofsuitablehabitats e majorityofreptilesandmayevenleadtothe totheincreaseofsuchraresnakesasCentral of suchresponseistheincreaseforage totheearlierawakeningofsteppetortoise bythespeciescommonforhotandarid lebetina vipera.Ifinthepastthisspecies ecline. Itisalsolikelythatincreaseofair etal. 1988) .

Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection common marinka pass troughtheterritoryof considerable partofthecenosisnaturaland (Safarov and greentoad( Amphibians in Othervertebrates 4.3.4 narrow distributionsranges,includingCaucasianagama(Nadjmidinovpers.comm.). likely thatclimatechangewouldleadtothed enemies, includingsnakes,mayprovidenegative represented byvariouspestinsects(see4.3.5).Fr From oneside,temperatureincreasemayhave Climate changeimpactontherepresentativesoflizardsincludinglong-leggedgeckocanbedual. impact onthepopulationofblindsnakeandcan easy preyforpredators,aswellhumans.Althoughthisfactorisanindirect,ithassignificant precipitation forashortperiodoftimeforcesit (Nadjmidinov pers.comm.).Thisspeciesoccurs effect oftheprojectedincrease Among othernegativeimpactsofclimatechan point, canleadtothedecrease ofitspopulation. (Kuzmin 1999).Itmakes themarsh depends onthewaterbodiesinagreaterextend, sp prefers openareas.Similartothegreentoad, the replacementoflightforestsandshrubveg makes itquiteinvulnerabletothedesiccationof the spawningevenirrigationditchesandother and spendsmostofthetimeawayfromwater amphibians of It isunlikelythatclimatechangewillhave ( Turkestan somik( Nemachilus stoliczkai etal. 2008).Theyarewidelyspre Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik Bufo viridis Glyptosternon reticulatum

) (Safarov ( Schizothorax intermedius ), whicharetheonlyspeciesofamphibiansthatoccurinTajikistan Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. 2008). in anumberofdayswithheavyrainsontheblindsnake . Thegreentoadisverytoleranttodryandhotconditions, frog morevulnerabletoclimate changeimpacts,and,atsome arerepresentedby2species–marshfrog( ), Tajikbeardie( ad ontheterritoryof ), Samarkandkhramulya( significant negativeimpactonpopulationsofthe ecline ofthepopulationsendemicspecieswith 61 areinhabitedbyfivespeciesoffishes,including tocomeupthesur artificial waterreservoirs.Thewatercoursesthat etation bysteppevegetation(section4.5)asit ge onthepopulationofreptilesisanindirect artificial waterchannels(Kuzmin1999),which mainly undergroundandsignificantamountof favorableeffectonlizards’forageresources effectonthepopulationoflizards.Itisalso bodies(Kuzmin1999).Itisadaptedtousefor

om theotherside,potentialincreaseoftheir natural waterbodies.Itcanalsobenefitfrom marsh froghasverybroadhabitatrange,but cause itsdecline(Nadjmidinovpers.comm.). ending thereconsiderablepartofthetime Nemachilus pardalis face whereitbecomesan zakaznik Varicarhinus heratensis ), andTibetanbeardie andconstitute Rana ridibunda ), )

CEU eTD Collection affect fruitandothertrees ontheterritoryof casebearer, Tajik mountainlackey,raisin most harmfulfromthem arecodlingmoth,walnut et al. kogistana ( populations. NineofthemarelistedintheRedData insects belongtoendemicandrelicspecies major classisrepresentedbyinsects,whichcompri There arearound3,800speciesofinvertebratesin 4.3.5 Invertebrates (Maslova 2006;Bickford available watersources,leadingtotheincrea species. Thereductionofwaterhabitatscanalso decrease anumberofbreedingsitesandsuitable water reservoirsduetothegeneraldecreasein The mainfactorsthatcanaffectpopulationsof macrocephala very low(Saidovpers.comm.). marinka andtheSamarkandkhramulya(Saidov20 species, inparticularsnakeheadthatcan Saidov pers.comm.).Anothernegativefactoris warmed up.Itisunlikelytoaffectthefast-strea be notedthatthismayhappenonlyinthesmallri as thereproductionandgrowthratesofadultfish (Saidov 2006a;Saidovpers.comm.).Thelattercan general increaseofairtemperatures,andassocia factor thatmayaffectpopulationsoffishesis The ichthyofaunaofthe dwelling inthe populations oftheamphibiansisunlikelydueto or damageeggsandtadpoles(Bickford toad, canbealsoaffectedbytheincreasednumber Hierodula tenuidentata 1988;Safarov ), ashenhawkmoth( ), Porphyrophora odorata zakaznik etal. ), Bei-Bienkogroundmantis( 2008).Thepestinsectscomprises41speciesbelonging tosixorders.The . etal. zakaznik Dolbinopsis grisea 2010).Thepopulationsoftheamphi , canbealsoalteredbytheclimatechangeimpacts.Themain Dalpada pavlovskii etal. outcompete nativespecies,includingthecommon ), and 2010).Meanwhile,aconsiderabledecreaseofthe med andrelativelywidePyanjriver(Saidov2006a; 62 sed competitionandaspreadofthediseases precipitation andhigherairtemperatures.Itcan ted decreaseintheamountofdissolvedoxygen habitats, whichcanalterthepopulationsofboth with narrowdistributionrangeanddeclining zakaznik the amphibiansincludedesiccationofsmall the increaseofwatertemperaturesdueto vers andwaterbodieswherecanbeeasily a potentialupstreammigrationoftheinvasive es andleadtothepopulationdecline.Itshould

increase thedensityofamphibiansaround Rivetina beybienkoi 06a). However,probabilityofsuchinvasionis se ofnearly3,000species.Somespeciesthe Dashtidjum Zakaznik Netelia fuscicornis moth,pearlouse,apricot march-flies,cherry ofdayswithheavyrainsthatcanwashaway moth,apple-leafblistermoth andothersthat , affect thesurvivalrateofbabyfishes,aswell the highadaptivecapacitiesofspecies BookofTajikistan,including:woodmantis Mustha baranovi (Safarov etal. (seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov ), large-headedmantis( bians, inparticularthegreen , Kuhistanblue( 2008). (Safarov et al. 2008).The Polyommatus Mantis

CEU eTD Collection the treesareaffectedby expansion hasalreadybeenobs from theclimatewarmingandmayexpandtheirdistributionranges(Hellmann species, andthedeclineofothers.Thefirstgroup Climate changeimpactontheinsectsof vulnerable specieslistedinthe well asendemicspecieswithnarrowdistributionra Climate changewillhaveadverseaffectonthema snow, leadingtothefluctuationsintheirpopulations’ density(Muminovpers.comm.). winters anddecreasedsnowcovercanaffectpopu to meltingofsnowfieldsandassociatedlack inhabitants ofthenivalzonethatwouldmost migration capacities(Saidov2006a;Muminovpers change cancausethedeclineofinsectswi (Saidov 2006a;Muminovpers.comm.).Unlikepe dwelling inthe increased consumptionofgreenleavesorbysl day tomorningorevening.Lackofprecipitati 2006a). Theyarealsoabletochangetheiractivi the speciesareabletoshifttheirdistribution capacities, aswellhighdispersalabilities(Hellmann The mainfactorsthatpromotedistributionofpest pers.comm.; Saidovpers.comm.). altered climatethepestinsectswouldinvaden xerophilous insects,forinstancemountainlackey(San contribution isevidentfromthechangesin contributes tothesituationaggravat reasons ofthisexpansionisthelackan the areaaffectedinpreviousdecades(Sango mountain slopesandforest meadows(Abdusaljamov Another highlyvulnerable speciesisthelarge-he to thelackofprecipitation andincreasedairtempe roots oftheplantsandisverysensitivetosoil zakaznik belongtothepolytrophicspeciesand the pestinsects(Safarov erved ontheterritoryof Red DataBookofTajikistanis ing itsconsequences(Makhmadaliev Dashtidjum Zakaznik likelysufferpopulationdeclineandextinctiondue th narrowfoodandhabitatrequirementslow ew areasandtheirdensitywillincrease(Muminov 63 dehydration. Awitheringoftheplants’rootsdue suitablehabitats(Muminovpers.comm.).Warm ty rhythmandshiftitfrom range followingtheshiftsinvegetation(Saidov ons canbeovercomebymanyinsectsthrough ti-pest treatmentandcontrol,climatechange speciescompositionandthedominanceof etal. owing metabolicactivities.Manyoftheinsects st andwide-spreadpolytrophicinsects,climate

aded mantisthatinhabits thegrassstandsof v pers.comm.).Althoughoneoftheprimary nges (Muminovpers.comm.).Oneofthemost ratures candrivethisspecies totheextinction. is representedbythepestinsectsthatbenefit andotherinsectsincludetheirhighadaptive jority oftheendangeredandrarespecies,as .comm.). Italsoreferstothepsychrophilic lations ofthespecieshibernatingunder 2008).Thisisalmosttentimeshigherthan etal. gov pers.comm.).Itislikelythatunderan etal. 2008;Beaumont zakaznik can changetheirfoodpreferences 1988).Itcanbeaffected by maycauseflourishingofsome Porphyrophora odorata , wherefrom20to80%of thehotperiodof etal. etal. etal. 2009).Mostof 2008).This 2008).Such . Itinhabits CEU eTD Collection prevalence ofxerophilousspeciesandpestinsects. with narrowfoodandhabitatrequirements.Theco to thelossofendangeredandrarespecies,aswellspeciesnivalzone,other the numberofspeciesinsectsonterritory potential increaseofpopulationdensitymanyspeci inhabit onlyacertainspecies suitable habitats.Thesamefactorwillaffectthera area of occur attheelevationfrom2, (Abdusaljamov abundance ofanotherrareandende Reduction ofareasoccupiedbymountainforest endangered species(Abdusaljamov as walnut( and diverseflora,aswell too. Favorableandvariousclimaticsoilsc The territoryof Floravulnerabilitytoclimatechange 4.4 the declineof decline oftheinsectsthatconstituteitsnutritiv xerophytization ofvegetationcoverthatleadsto ( 2008). Thebiggestfamilies ofthe families, whichismorethan21%ofallvasc The vascularplantsof wild relativesofculturalplantsthatre The floraofthe Himalaya, Pamir-AlaiandHinduKush,from of geographical zonescanbeobservedat elements, andsometimesthewholecomple Fabaceae Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik )

– 114,truegrasses( Juglans regia Dalpada pavlovskii et al. zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik 1988),leadingtoitsdeclineandpotentialextinction.TheKuhistanbluethat ) andbirch( arerepresentedbyspeciesfromsuchmountainous regionsasTien-Shan, Dashtidjum Zakaznik consistsofconsiderableamount duetoincreaseofairtemperature forestvegetation(Safarov 150 to2350masl(Abdusaljamov of theashtree(Abdusaljamov under analteredclimateisthe Poaceae etal. Betula tjanshanica zakaznik ischaracterizednotonlybyri present valuablegeneticresources(Safarov the relativelysmallareaof 1988). )

mic inhabitantoftheseforests- – 84,androsefamily ( comprise958speciesrelatedto490generaand 98 floraareaster( e base(Muminovpers.comm.).Amainreasonfor ular plantsoccurringinTajikistan(Safarov 64 onditions havepromotedformationofabundant xes, ofsubtropicalandtemperatebotanical- s andtheirxerophytizationmayalsoaffectthe

) thatconstitutethemainhabitatforthisrelic desert regionsofKaraKumandKyzylKum. re andrelicashenhawkmoth–aspeciesthat decrease ofsuitablehabitats,andassociated mposition ofspecieswillbealsoalteredbya es, inparticularpestinsects,itislikelythat etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik endemicandrarespecies,aswell 2008).Acombinationofdifferent etal. etal. decrease ofmesophylictrees,such Asteraceae thatwillaffecttheavailabilityof 1988).Ingeneral,despitethe 1988)candisappearfromthe Rosaceae) chness infauna,butflora zakaznik ) –127species,legume woulddecreasedue – 45species.The . Thefloraspecies etal. Mustha baranovi 2008). etal.

CEU eTD Collection represented by19ligneous species,includingwalnut( walnuts, pistachio,andalmonds. Species consist ofconsiderableamountfruitandnut 200 speciesincluding40ofwild-growing crops, whichrepresentuniquegeneticresources(Safarov Another importantgroupoffloraspecies ‘endangered’ species(seeAnnex9)(Abdusaljamov plants ofthe and onespeciesislistedas‘endangered’(see Darvaz swida( of them,includingDarvazhawthorn( (Safarov represented by115species,includingra regional andglobalsignificance(seeAnnex10)(Safarov The floraof ( polymorphous generaincludemilk-vetch( orientalis grape vine( The leastprevalentformofplantsistheliana plants (536species),annual(278species 13 species.Amongvascularplantsofthe Cousinia Figure 4-10.DiversityofvascularplantsDashtidjumZakaznik Annual plantswith shortvegetationperiod–121 ) (Safarov Annual plantswith longvegetationperiod–157 etal. )

– 16,knotweed(

Vitis vinifera Perennial herbaceousplants–536 zakaznik 2008).Sevenspeciesoffloraarelisted Dashtidjum Zakaznik Swida darvasica etal. Biennial plants–32 Diversity of forms forms of Diversity Shrubs –67 areincludedintheRedDataBookof Trees –39 2008). Diversity ofvascular plantsofDashtidjumZakaznik Liana –6 ), bluestemjointfir( Polygonum ) have‘criticallyendangered’status,anotherthreeare‘vulnerable’, Vascular plants( comprisesvariousendemic,rareandendangeredspeciesof )

– 18,buttercup(

Crataegus darvasica

re andrelicmagnificentostrowskia( zakaznik that formforestsonthe territoryofthe Astragalus Tracheophyta , representedonlyby6species,includingcommon Ephedra equisetina Dashtidjum Zakaznik 65 Annex 8)(IUCN2010c).Fortythreespeciesof trees, suchasapples,pears,cherry-plums,plums, ) andbiennialplants(3 ligneousspecies(Annexes10and11).Thelatter etal.

thedominantformsareperennialherbaceous

) in theIUCNRedList(IUCN2010c).Three

– 51species,onion( 1988;Safarov Ranunculus ) –958species ), Korjinskyi’spear( Juglans regia etal.

etal. Tajikistan; eightofthemarelistedas Food vitamin-containingplants–30 2008).Theycomprisemorethan Wild relativesoffruitplants–40 ), andChineseclematis( Data source:Safarov )

2008).Endemicspeciesare – 8,andmeadow-grass( Essential oilplants–22 Tanniferous plants–40 Oil-bearing plants–10 ), maples( arewildrelativesofcultural Medicinal plants–48 Diversity of values values of Diversity etal. Dye plants–60 2 species)(Figure4-10). 2008). Allium

Pyrus korshinskyi Ostrowskia magnifica Acer sp. )

– 15,cousinia zakaznik ), pistachio et al. Clematis 2008 Poa ), and are )

– ) CEU eTD Collection number ofobservations, mainlyforligneousspeci allow identifyingphenological changesforthefloraspeciesof flowering, aswellby shifts ofdistribution their life-cycleevents,includingbeginningof Adaptive responsesofthespeciesfloratoclim Ustjan pers.comm.). species byweedcommunities,aswelltheloss of invasive species,includingpestinsects(section4.3. pers.comm.; Karimovpers.comm.).Climatechan and leadtothelossofspeciesdiversitydue precipitations, especiallytheirdecreaseinthesp period ofplants,aswellitsduration(Safarov and precipitationanomalies.Anomaliesinairtem factors, climatechangeimpactonfloraspeciesis Unlike faunaspecieswhenamainpartofthec Vulnerability ofdifferentfloratypes 4.4.1 ( cultural crops,isprovidedbelow. flora of ecosystems ofthe the lossofspeciesdiversityandsignificant 2008). Climatechangeisanother communities byweedandinvasivespecies cover anddistributionofalienspecies.Altogeth composition andservices,whileacattlegrazing Tree cuttingleadstotheshrinkingofforestar (Safarov by anumberofanthropogenicstressors,inpartic Similar tothespeciesoffauna,plant plants (Figure4-10)(Safarov 200 speciesofusefulplantsthathavevalueas communities oflightforests. Pistacia vera etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), andalmonds( 2008).Themostthreatenedarespecieslocatedinlow-andmid-mountainzones. zakaznik . Abriefoverviewoftheclimatech etal. Furthermorethefloraof , aswellendemicandendangered Amygdalus sp. 2008). threat forthefloraspeciesof ), aswelleightherbaceousspeciesthatform ranges. Alackofmonitoring programsdoesnot pers.comm.;Karimovpers.comm.).Anomaliesin 66 thefallingoutofhydrophilousspecies(Safarov rings, affectthedevelopmentofvegetationcover medicinal, food,oil-bearing,tanniferousanddye general lossofbiodiversityspecies(Safarov changes inthestructureandfunctionof limate changeimpactsisrepresentedbyindirect ular cattlegrazingandtreecuttingforfuelwood ate changearemainlyrepresentedbychangesin ea andassociateddisturbancesinecosystems’ represented byadirectpressureoftemperature is amainreasonofdegradationvegetation perature affectthebegi the vegetation,leafunfoldingandfall,

5), whichleadstothereplacementofvaluable es, whichconfirmshifts of theirdistribution er itleadstothereplacementofvaluable treesaffectedbypests(Safarovpers.comm.; Dashtidjum Zakaznik ge alsocontributestothedistributionof Dashtidjum Zakaznik ange impactsondifferenttypesof Dashtidjum Dashtidjum Zakaznik speciesandwildrelativeof aresignificantlyaffected

nning ofthevegetation Zakaznik comprisemorethan , butthereare thatleadsto etal.

CEU eTD Collection ( distribution ranges(Safarovpers.comm.;Ustjan species thatunlikeherbaceoushavelower Besides rareandendangeredspecies,themost Sattorov pers.comm.). endemics withraredistributionandendanger mesophilous speciesinbioticcommunitiesandle combined withprojecteddecreaseofprecipita pers.comm.; Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).Itisth dispersal andadaptivecapacity,aswellby mesophylic specieshavesignificantlydeclineddue lower boundarytohigherelevations(section4.5). upper boundaryofsomemesophilousspecieshas climate changeimpactsbyshiftingtheirdistribu ephemeroids ofsavannoid,xerophytic,andothe meadows, ligneousandherbaceousspeciesof occurring withindifferentecosystemsof periods, aswellbyhigherairtemperatures. moisturized soilandcanbeaffectedbythelack The mostvulnerablegroupofplantsishy occupy otherareasandshifttheirdistri Dashtidjum Zakaznik them atsomepointmorevulnerabletodirectim species, exceptofweedinvasivehasvery ranges tohigherelevations.At temperatures ofharshwinters thataffectgrowth affected notonlybylack ofsoilmoistureandanomaliesintemperature, includingcold distribution range(section 4.5.4).Mesophiloustreespeciesof pers.comm.; Ustjanpers.comm.).Turkestanma and intolerancetohighsummertemperatures, from theterritoryof Vavilov’s almond( fruit treesofglobalimportance,suchasSiver’sapple ( Betula tianschanica ), Turkestanmaple( Amygdalus vavilovii . Thus,itislikelythatconsiderablegroupofplantswouldnotbeableto Dashtidjum Zakaznik the sametime,itshouldbenotedthatamajorityofflora ) (seesection4.4.3).Itislikely bution ranges(Safarovpers.comm.). Acer turkestanicum Dashtidjum Zakaznik duetoitshighsensitivitythelackofsoilmoisture drophilous andmesophilousspeciesthatrequire more xericspecies(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorov 67 Mesophytesarerepresentedbyvariousspecies ed species(section4.4.2)(Safarovpers.comm.; pers.comm.).AmongthemareTien-Shanbirch ofrainfallduringthevegetationanddormancy tion ranges.Inparticular,theexpansionof ple andwalnutmaysignificantlyreducetheir vulnerablemesophytesalsoincludeligneous of woodpulpanddevelopment ofyoungtrees, r ecosystems.Theyhavealreadyrespondedto limited naturalmigrationcapacity,whichmakes drought-resistance andcannoteasilyshifttheir erefore likelythatfurtherclimatewarming,

pacts ofclimatechangethanfaunaspecies to theirreplacementbyweedspecieswithhigh At thesametime,populationsizesofvaluable tion, willsignificantlyreducetheshareof as welllowmigrationcapacity(Safarov mid-mountain forests,andephemers been observedalongwiththeshiftoftheir ad tothelossofsomespecies,especially Malus sieversii ), walnut,aswellsomewild-growing , includingplantsofhigh-mountain ), Cayonpear( that thebirchwoulddisappear Dashtidjum Zakaznik Pyrus cayon maybe ), and CEU eTD Collection senna ( forest canopy,includingsuchspecies Reduction offorestcoverwillhaveanegativeimpactonherbaceousspeciesthatgrowunderthe pers.comm.; Ustjanpers.comm.). but alsobyspreadofpestinsectsandincrea consequent year(Karimov pers.comm.).Epheme affect theprocessofnutrients a well astreesandshrubs.Atthesametimelack (ephemeroids) arelessvulnerabletoclimatechange Similar toephemers,theperennialherbaceo contribute totheexpansionofareaoccupiedbyephemers. well adaptedspecieswithhighdispersalcapaci abundance ofephemers,thoughitmaycausechan pers.comm.) Butingeneral,itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillconsiderablyaffectthe formation, leadingtothedecreasedrichness rainfall duringthevegetationperiodmaydisr relatively lowvulnerabilityofephemerstoclim and anomaliesinprecipitations(Safarovpe includes temporalshiftsinvegetationperiod,anditsshorteningduetothehigherairtemperature drought (Safarovpers.comm.;Karimovpers.c the rainfallseasonandfollowingdormancyperiodin savannoid andxerophyticecosystems.Theyarechar The leastvulnerabletoclimatechangemes Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). the meadowsandincreaseprevalenceofxe important sourceofwaterforthelower-lyingareas. melting ofsnowfieldsrepresentsathreatforth already beenobservedinthenivalzoneof growing inthelowerzone(Safarovpers.co range duetothemeltingofsnowfieldsandappe predicted climateincludespeciesofhigh-mount endangered species(section4.4.2).Mesophytes Colutea hybrida ), andGoncharov’sskullcap( ccumulation intubersand bulbs,requiredforthevegetationina as small-floweredtouch-me-not( Dashtidjum Zakaznik mm.; Sattorovpers.comm.).Suchexpansionhas ophilous speciesareprobablytheephemersof sed susceptibilityoftreestopathogens(Safarov 68 rs.comm.; Karimovpers.comm.).Despitethe of precipitationduringthevegetationperiodcan e high-mountainmeadows,assnowfieldsarean upt theprocessesofphotosynthesisandseed ate change,higherairtemperaturesandlackof ain meadowsthatcanexpandtheirdistribution of ephemersinaconsequentyear(Karimov omm.). Climatechangeimpactonephemers ric andweedspecies(Safarovpers.comm.; us specieswithashortvegetationperiod ty (Safarovpers.comm.).Thelatterwillalso arance ofnewterritoriesvacantfortheplants

and hydrophytesthatmaybenefitfromthe ges intheircompositionwithadominanceof As a result, it can re thanthosewithalongvegetationperiod,as roids arealsosensitive tothehighair a formofseedsthathelpsthemtoavoidthe acterized byshortvegetationperiodduring Scutelaria gontscharovii (section4.5.1).Atthesametime, Impatiens parviflora duce speciesdiversityof ), aswellsome ), hybrid CEU eTD Collection the favorableimpactofclimate change(section4.4.2). ranges andendangeredstatus maydisappearfrom (section 4.5.5).Unlikewide-spread andweedspecies, observed ontheterritoryof origanum ( such ascouchgrass( altered climateincludespecieswithhighadaptive replacing themesophilousspecies.Speciesthat may benefitfromthewarmerclimateanddrou Xerophyte herbaceousspeciesareamongtheleast mortality (Ustjanpers.comm.;Safarovpers.comm.). xerophytic vegetationincludesincreasedspreadofth area affectedmayconsiderablyincrease.Anothernegativeimpactofclimatechangeon for warmerclimateanddecreaseofprecipitation,it and ismainlytriggeredbyanthropogenicfactor(Safarov 2008). Atpresent,thefrequencyof plants, includingtreessuchaspistachio,Griffit’sredbud( mid-mountain xerophyticecosystems(section4.5.5) change, astheyarewelladaptedtodryandhotwea Xerophytic plantsareamongtheleastvulnerablespeciesof Kaufman’s primrose( species asKorolkov’scrocus( composition ofephemeroidswithaprevalence distribution rangesupwards,itislikelythat pers.comm.). Inadditiontotemporalvariations result inthefallingoutofephemeroidsfrom process canalsobedisruptedbydecreasedamou temperature thatcancausefoliageburnsandaff (Ustjan pers.comm.).Xerophytictreesandshrubs changes intemperaturesthatmayleadtothedeathofseed-budsandaffecttreegrowth resistance ofthesetreestodroughtsandhigh their distributionranges(Ustjanpers.comm.;Safa regelii ), andalmonds(Safarov Origanum tyttanthum Primula kaufmanniana Elytrigia trichophora etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik ) (Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).Theirexpansionhas alreadybeen Crocus korolkovii 2008).Theymaybenefitfromtheclimatewarmingandexpand forestfiresontheterritoryof ), bulbousbluegrass( ) (Safarov 69 climatechangewillpromotechangesinthe air temperatures,theyaresensitivetothesharp ), Baldjuanprimrose( , andisaggravatedbytheintensecattlegrazing ect theprocessofnutrientsaccumulation.This capacities,representedmainlybyweedspecies, rov pers.comm.).Atthesametime,despite the grassstandduringsomeyears(Karimov

are alsoverypronetoforestfires(Safarov nt ofautumnprecipitation.Altogetheritmay may increasetheirpopulationsizeunderan the compositionofDashtidjum’s floradespite inspeciesabundance,aswellshiftof ghts andexpandtheredistributionsranges, islikelythatthefrequencyofforestfiresand ther conditions.Theyaremainlyoccurwithin weedspecies,attheexpensesofsuchrare et al. e pestinsetsandassociatedincreaseoftrees andarerepresentedbydifferentformsof vulnerable speciestoclimatechange.They xerophyte specieswitha small andisolated 2008;Karimovpers.comm.) etal. Certic griffithii 2008),butinaviewofprojections Poa bulbosa Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik Primula baldshuanica ), Regel’smaple( ), andsmall-flowered toclimate isnothigh ), and etal. Acer

CEU eTD Collection As mentionedinprevio Endemicandendangeredspecies 4.4.2 Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). probably drivethisspecies totheextincti stressors, alongwiththe reduction offorestcove distribution rangeduetothelowmigrationcapa species andleadtothepopulationdecline.Itis lack ofprecipitationduringth well-drained soils(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorov highly vulnerabletoclimatechangeasitmainly mid-mountain mesophylicforests(Abdusaljamov Tajikistan (Annex9)(Abdusaljamov Eduard’s fritillaryisararespecieswithdec and endangeredspeciesispresentedbelow. population sizeanddistributionranges.Abrief endemic species;andthosethatwillpersist, perspective itislikelythat by otherspecieswithhigherdispersalandadaptive some speciesareabletodothat,areasathigher distribution forasuitableclimateconditions(Saf ranges duetonaturalreasonsorhumanactivities.It change impactsasamajorityofthemarealread Endemic andendangeredspeciesof walnut (Safarov species of Eduard’s fritillary( and ‘endangered’species,includingkeyserlingia,superiortulip( considerable partofendemicspeciesislistedin represented bylegumefamily–39species,including26sub-speciesofthemilk-vetch.A zakaznik ostrovskia, haveverynarrowdistributionranges constitutes 115species,someofthem,includingkeyserlingia( of rareandendemicspecies,aswellendang andsurroundingsareas(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. Petilium eduardii 2008). us section,thefloraof Dashtidjum Zakaznik e springandsummerperiodmayaffectthevegetation ofthis includemagnificentostrovskia,commonfig( )

(Figure 4-12),andDarvaziris( Dashtidjum Zakaznik et al. 1988). Itisaperennialplantthatmainlygrowswithin etal. lining populations,listedintheRedDataBookof Dashtidjum Zakaznik on (Safarovpers.comm.; Sattorovpers.comm; elevationsmostprobablywillbealreadyoccupied y characterizedbyfragmentednarrowdistribution 70 occursunderthebroad-leavedtreesandrequires may experienceconsiderablereductionoftheir willlosesignificantamountofendangeredand theRedDataBookofTajikistanas‘declining’ arov pers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.).Evenif overview ofthevulnerab pers.comm.). Anomaliesinairtemperatureand etal. andcanbemetonlyontheterritoryof r, aswellanthropogenic pressure,willmost

ered species.Thetotalamountofendemics unlikelythatEduard’sfritillarywillshiftits capacities(Safarovpers.comm.).Inlong-term cities. Thus,directimpactofclimatechange 2008).Amajorityofendemicspeciesis isunlikelythattheywillbeabletoshifttheir 1988;Safarov maybesignificantlyaffectedbyclimate Keyserlingia mollis Tulipa praestans consistsofsignificantamount Iris darvasica etal. ility ofsomeendemic 2008).Thespeciesis ) (Annex9).Relic ) andmagnificent Ficus carica )

(Figure 4-11), ), and CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-12.Eduard’sfritillary Figure 4-11 . Superior tulip

71

Photo credit:Safarov2008 CEU eTD Collection population, includedintotheRedDataBookofTajikistan(Annex9)(Abdusaljamov The magnificentostrovskia( (Safarov pers.comm.). is alsounlikelythatthisspecieswillshiftits decrease ofthepopulationsize as meadowgrassandsedge,theirreduction (Safarov pers.comm.).Atthesametime,as well adaptedtohotanddryclimate,thuscan be variegated soilsmainlywithinxerophyticecosystems (Abdusaljamov (Annex 9)(Abdusaljamov The keyserlingiaisanendangeredandendemicsp tulip ( species asKorolkov’scrocus,Darvaziris,andNikolaijuno,wellendangeredMaximovich’s change, incombinationwithanthropogenicpr precipitation duringthevegetationperiod(Karimov prevernal species,aswellephemeroidsthatma significant reductionoftheirpopulationsize.Anot along withthedirectimpactofhigherairtem ( skullcap, hybridsenna,Tajikchesneya( rare speciesthatinhabitmid-mountainforestsof In additiontospeciesmentionedabove,climatechangewilladverselyaffectotherendemicand capacities, whichwillconstrainshifts areas coveredbyforestsandtheirshiftsupwa species, themagnificentostrovskiamaysufferasi dry yearsinseveralplacesof lack ofprecipitation.Anabsenceflowering pers.comm.). SimilartoEduard’sfritillary,itcan zakaznik and juniperforests(Abdusaljamov It growsonfine-grainedandgravellyslopesina Eremurus roseolus Tulipa maximowiczii , andthereforeishighlyvulnerabletoclim ). Climate-drivenshiftsofforestve ) andotherspecies(Safarov etal. Ostrowskia magnifica Dashtidjum Zakaznik 1988).Itformsshrubsupto thekeyserlingia(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.). It etal. of itsranges(Safarovpers.comm.). 1988).Itisoneofthemosthydrophilousspecies Chesneya tadzhikistana it formsacommunitywithsuchmesophilousplants distribution rangeforabetterclimateconditions ) isarare,endemicandrelicspecieswithdeclining 72 thisspecieshasalreadybeenobservedinrecent essure, willdrivetoextinctionsuchdeclining be directlyaffectedbytemperatureincreaseand (Sattorovpers.comm.).Beingashade-requiring shadow oftreesandrockswithinbroad-leaved perature andanomaliesinrainfallmaycause ecies listedintheRedDataBookofTajikistan

gnificant reductionalsoduetothedecreaseof replacement byotherspeciesmayleadtothe rds. Thespeciesalsohaslimitedmigration y beaffectedbywarmerclimateandlackof her groupofrareandendangeredspeciesare etal. ate change(Safarovpers.comm.;Zagrebelnyi relativelyresistanttoclimatechangeimpacts Dashtidjum Zakaznik, pers.comm.).Thus,itislikelythatclimate getation anditsxerophytization(see4.5.5), 2008). sixmetersheight,whichgrowon ), androse-tinteddesert-candle etal. 1988).Thespeciesis such asGoncharov’s etal. 1988). CEU eTD Collection these speciesandtheirvulnerability toclimatechangeispresentedbelow. pers.comm.; SattorovZagrebelnyipers.comm.). outcompeting nativespecies,andwillconsiderab plasticity. Itislikelythatunde tanner’s sumacischaracterizedbyhighresistance communities, butcanbemetatelevat are welladaptedforhotanddryconditions.Theblackcuminoccursmainlywithinxerophytic They arerelativelywide-spreadacross among endangeredspecies(Safarovpers.comm.; in theIUCNRedList(Annex8)areprobablyth (Annex 9),andtanner’ssumac( Such speciesasblackcumin( may leadtothedeclineofpopulationsize(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.). experience delaysinfloweringandbearing,as thus canbelessaffectedbyclimatechangeimpacts (Abdusaljamov pomegranate (Abdusaljamov wild relativesincludeseveralspeciesofpear,apple andalmondtrees,aswellhawthorn nut treesarewalnut,pistachio,andalmond(Fig them aresuchsub-tropicalspeciesaspomegranate, including 40speciesofwild-growing importance asvaluablegeneticresources.Thereare because itcomprisesmanyspecies,whicharewild The floraof Wildrelativesofculturalplants 4.4.3 Rozenbah’s onion( within mesophyliccommunities(Safarovpers of 1988). Atthesametime,itisunlikelythatthis vegetation andissensitivetohighairtempe vulnerable speciesisthestalkedonion( From thethreeonionspecieslistedinRed Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. Allium Rosenbachianum 1988),butisrelativelybetteradapted asitisquitewidelyspread,but etal. Bunium persicum r thechangingclimaticconditionsitwilloccupynewterritories, Rhus coriaria 1988;Safarov hassignificantvaluenotonlyb treesandshrubs(Annex12)(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik ions upto2,500masl(Abdusaljamov ) alsopreferstoinhabitshadowareasunderthetrees Allium stipitatum ) andDarvazswida( ), whichislistedintheRedDataBookofTajikistan rature andlackofmoisture(Abdusaljamov specieswilldisappearfromthefloracomposition well asdisruptionofgenerationprocesses,which 73 .comm.). Anotherspeciesofonion–endemic etal. ure 4-13).Endemicandendangeredspeciesof Sattorov pers.comm.;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). Data BookofTajikistan(Annex9),themost

to variousclimaticconditionsaswellhigh figandcherry-plumtrees.Themostvaluable e leastvulnerablespeciestoclimatechange more than200plantspeciesofwildrelatives, relativesofculturalcropsandhaveglobal (Safarovpers.comm.).Nevertheless,itmay ly expanditsdistributionrange(Safarov 2008;IUCN2010c).A brief overviewof it maysufferreductionofitspopulation ) thatgrowswithinforestmesophylic , exceptofveryrareDarvazswida,and forvariousclimaticconditions,and Swida darvasica ecause itsdiversity,butalso etal. ), whicharelisted etal. 2008).Among 1988).The etal.

CEU eTD Collection associated increasedmortality oftrees. which maysufferreduction inpopulationsizedueto (Safarov pers.comm.).Thesamecanbenotedfo change impact,thisspeciesmaybeaffectedbysp of willowandpoplar(Abdusaljamov only knownlocationatZarbuzriveroutlet,where of Tajikistanas‘endangered’species(Abdusaljamov has ‘criticallyendangered’status(IUCN2010c)(Anne Another specieslistedintheIUCN may sufferthereductionofitspopulationsizeaf pers.comm.). Atthesametime,Vavilov’salmond distribution ranges,whichhasalreadybeen arid climate.Therefore,theycanevenbenefi ecosystems (Safarov 1988). Bothofthemgrowatrockyslopesthe contrary isaveryrarespecies,listedin 2010c), butisrelativelywide-spreadontheterritoryof Bukharian almond(Figure4-13)islistedinthe almond ( The wild-growingspeciesofalmondin (Safarov pers.comm.;SattorovZagrebelnyipers.comm.) may expanditsdistributionrangeunderthealtered boundary oftheirdistributionrange(Safarovpe pers.comm.; Sattorovpers.comm.).Itcancause that reducesmoisturecapacityandaccesstowater,aswellcoldtemperatures(Safarov (Sattorov pers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.).Atthe for hotanddryconditions,thushasrelative elevations of800to1,350masl(Safarov In the included intotheRedDataBookofTajikistanasrareanddeclining(Abdusaljamov common pomegranate( Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik Amygdalus bucharica itoccursmainlyonthesouthernslopeswithinxerophyticecosystems,at etal. isoneofthemainplacesforconservationvaluablewild-growing 2008).Similartopomegranate,theyarequitewelladaptedforhotand Punica granatum ) andVavilov’salmond( Red LististheDarvazhawthorn( etal. etal. ) (Figure4-14)(Safarov the RedDataBookofTajikistan(Abdusaljamov 1988).Despiteaquitelo Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008).Itissubtropicalspeciesthatwelladapted 74 rs.comm.). Butingeneral,commonpomegranate t fromtheclimatewarmingandexpandtheir ter theharshwinters(Safarovpers.comm.). elevation of800to1,700maslwithinxerophytic observedforBukharianalmond(Safarov IUCN RedListas‘vulnerable’species(IUCN is sensitivetoextremelycoldtemperatures,and ly lowvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeimpacts r themajorityofspecieslistedinthissection,

death ofsometrees,mainlyalongthelower its growsalongtheriverbanksamongbushes read ofpestinsectsduringhotanddryyears climate,ifnotaffectedbyhumanactivities etal. Amygdalus vavilovii same timeitissensitivetothesoiloverheat x 8).ItisalsolistedintheRedDataBook increasedinfestationby pestinsectsand 1988).Itisveryrarespecies,withthe zakaznik arerepresentedbyBukharian etal. . Vavilov’salmond,onthe ) (Safarov w vulnerabilitytoclimate Crataegus darvasica 2008).Thisspeciesis etal. etal. 2008). ), which 1988). etal.

The

CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-14.Wild-growingcommon pomegranate Figure 4-13 . Bukharian almond

75

CEU eTD Collection pear ( Wild-growing pearspeciesarerepresentedbyse absence ofseedreproduction(Safarovpers.comm.). distribution range.Itmayalsoexperiencedifficult (Safarov pers.comm.).Itisthereforelikelythat species, butitmaystillsufferfromthelackof forests of al. as ‘vulnerable’species,andinRedDataBook endemic speciesSiver’sapple( apple andpeartrees,aswellwalnuts.Thewild The mostvulnerablespeciesofwildrelatives (see alsosection4.5.5)(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). distribution rangeontheterritoryof the groupofspeciesthatmaybenefitfrom ecosystems, aswelllessspreadjujube( relatives ofculturalcropsarewidelyspreadpist would belessaffectedbyclimate-drivenmanifest plum, onthecontrary,isrela death ofthistree(Zagrebelnyipers.comm.)and conditions. Atthesametime,figtreesaresens ( Red DataBook common fig( Among xericwild-growingfruitsp and decreaseofyieldsdue totheclimate-driven pears arealsoverysusceptible todifferentpa death ofsingletreesandreduce thepopulationsize lack ofrainfallmayadverselyaffectthisspecies temperature (Safarovpers.comm.).Atthesame mid-mountain mesophylicforeststheyhavequite hi (Annexes 8and9)(Abdusaljamov genetic resourcesandarelistedintheIUCNRed Prunus darvasica 1988;IUCN2010c).Itoccursinaformofsi Pyrus kayon Dashtidjum Zakaznik Ficus carica ). Thesespeciesbelongtosubtropicalspeci

of Tajikistanalongwiththerareand ) andKorjinsky’spear( ) andAfghanfig( tively resistanttopestinsectsanddiseases(Safarov Malus sieversii (Safarov ecies arealsofigtrees,representedbytwo‘declining’species– etal. etal. 1988;IUCN2010c).Thoughbothspeciesgrow within Zizyphus jujuba Ficus afghanistanica zakaznik Pyrus korchynskyii ) (Safarov thogens andmaysufferreduction ofpopulationsize 2008).Itiscold-resistantandrelativelyxerophyte of Tajikistanas‘declining’species(Abdusaljamov spreadofpestinsects(Sattorov pers.comm.) 76 achio thatconstitutesthemainpartofxerophytic itive tocoldtemperatures,whichcancausethe veral species,includingrareandendemicCayon the climatechangeimpactsandexpandtheir time, thecombinationofhightemperatureand due todecreaseofsoilsmoisture.Itmaycause ngular treesorsmallgroupswithinmesophylic itwilldisappearfromthelowerzoneofits susceptible todifferentpathogens.Thecherry- culturalcropstoclimatechangeareprobably ations ofpestinsects.Anotherxerophyticwild ies inshiftingthedist

-growing appletreeisre soil moistureandspreadofthepestinsects , butifanthropogenicpressureisminimized of thisrarespecies(Safarov pers.comm.).The List, aswellRedDataBookofTajikistan etal. gh adaptivecapacityandresistancetohigh ) (Safarov endemic species-Darvazcherry-plum 2008).Itislisted es andarewelladaptedtohotarid ). Bothofthemareincludedintothe ).

Both ofthemconstitutevaluable etal. 2008).Theyalsobelongto ribution rangeduetothe presented byrareand in theIUCNRedList etal. 2008),and et CEU eTD Collection Figure 4-15.EcosystemsofDashtidjumZakaznik Climatic andlandscapevariabilityof Ecosystemsvulnerabilitytoclimatechange 4.5 comprise ofwildrelativescultur xerophytic ecosystemsthatcovernearly50%oftheterritory occurring aroundhumansettlements.Themost endangered species,andananthropogenicecosy valuable mid-mountainmesophylicforeststh occurring inTajikistan(Figure4-15).Theyarere (Safarov ecosystems onarelativelysmallareaandtheirdi etal. 2008).Ecosystemsofthe al cropsofglobalsignificance(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik 77 versity bothinhorizontalandverticaldimension at providehabitatsforrare,endemicand presented bysixnaturalecosystems,including

stem representedbyagriculturalecosystems wide-spreadecosystemsaremid-mountain compriseof7out12ecosystems’types havepromotedformationofnumerous Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. 2008). and CEU eTD Collection adaptive responsestoclimatechangeispresentedbelow. changes intheirstructureanddistributionrang that climatechangealreadyaffectstheecosystemsof decreases theabilityofecosystemstoadaptclim represents asignificantthreattotheecologicalbalanceinregion(Safarov in thedegradationofecosystemsespeciallythos factors, includingillegalwoodcutting, should benotedthatthemajorityofitsnatura birds, insectsandvaluableplantcommunities(Safarov Nival ecosystemsofthe meadows andotherecosystems(Safarovpers.comm.). the peaksofmountainrangesarevaluable and ecologicalbalancebothatregionallocallevel(Safarov occupied bytheseecosystems(le Khazratisho andDarvazrangesat vegetation (Safarov Nival ecosystemsof Nivalecosystems 4.5.1 Despite thenatureprotectionregimeestablishedonterritoryof to thechangesinbiodiversity composition half. Theterritoriesthatbecame vacantfroms In particular,anareacoveredbythesnowfields changes ofsnowlineandmeltingsnowfields the lastdecadesconsequencesofclimatewarming can beclearlydifferentiatedastheimpactsofan Nival ecosystemsareoneofthefew of the endangered speciesmarkhorcanbeobserved(Safarov among othersSiberianibexandredmarmot.Atth ( purple bladdercampion territories ofnivalecosystemsaround15-30 Astragalus nivalis) , andsnowlotus( etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008).Theycoverthehighestparts (Melandriumapetalum) zakaznik ss than5%),theyplayanimportantroleinclimateformation providehabitatsforrareandendemicspeciesofmammals, the elevationsfrom2,800to3,000masl.Despitesmallarea Saussurea glacialis poaching, andcattlegrazing(Safarov aremostlyrepresentedbyrocksandtaluseswithrare l ecosystemsareaffectedbyvariousanthropogenic (Safarov pers.comm.;Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). now arebeingoccupiedby thevegetation,leading 78 , whitlow-grass es. Abriefoverviewof plant species,includingsuchfloweringspeciesas forthelast15-20yearshasreducedalmostin sourceofwaterforloweralpineandsub-alpine (Safarov pers.comm.;Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). thropogenic activitiesareverylimited.During e locatedatelevationsupto1,500masland

e lowerboundariesofthenivalecosystems ate change,worseningitsimpacts.Itisevident have beenobservedhere,firstofall,inthe ), canbemet.Animalinhabitantsinclude etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik etal. 2008). of themountainsbelongingto etal. (Drabaaltaica) 2008).Atthecoldandrocky whereclimatechangeimpacts 2008).Snowfieldsthatcover the ecosystemsandtheir Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. etal. leading tovarious , nivalmilk-vetch 2008).Itresults 2008).Italso , it CEU eTD Collection ( ecosystems aremainlyformed byfescue( and Pamir-Alairicegrass( Endemic plantspeciesofhighmountainmeadow outside the Red List,canbesometimesobservedherewhenit brown bear,andredmarmot.Asnowleopard,an endangeredspeciesincludedintotheIUCN animal worldoftheecosystemincludesendanger ecological roleprovidinghabitatsfornumerous fragments atthealtitudesfrom Zeravshan thyme( High mountainmeadowsandsteppesoccupynearly1%ofthe andsteppes Highmountainmeadows 4.5.2 (section 4.3.1)(Saidovpers.comm.). disappear fromtheterritoryof of themarenotstudiedyet(Muminovpers.comm. number ofspeciesinsectsconfinedtotheco alpine meadows(Safarovpers.comm.).Climatech negative consequencesfortheecosystemsasita perspective canleadtothemonotonyofspecies the easilyspreadweedplantsthatcanoutcomp Despite theincreaseinspeciesnumber,theircom cause anappearanceofthemosscoveronrocks(Safarovpers.comm.). lower elevations.Anincreaseofthemeantempe likely thattheirnumberwouldfurtherincrease that composetheecosystemhasincreasedfrom7-10 nival zone,whichwaspreviouslyunusualforthem.A turkestanicus) as knotweed( Thomson’s leopardplant( observed (Safarovpers.comm.).Inparticular,suchspeciesasPaulsen’sdock( At thelowerboundariesofecosystem,in Carex melanantha zakaznik (Zagrebelnyipers.comm.),haveexpand Polygonum aviculare , C.stenocarpa Thymus seravshanicus inasearchoffood(Safarov Pipthaterum pamiroalaicum Ligularia thomsonii ), cobresia( 2,800to3,000masl(Safarov ), commonplantain( zakaznik ). Grassproductivityof the highmountainmeadowand Cobresia stenocarpa Festuca alaica ) (Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorovcomm.),aswell andmigratetothenorthernareaswithcolderclimate 79 due totheintroductionof ld conditionsofthenivalzone;andmajority etal. composition. Reductioninasnowcoveralsohas ffects waterprovisionof rare andendemicplantanimalspecies.The ed markhor,aswellSiberianibex,Tien-Shan position, mostprobably,willberepresentedby

s includestalkedonion,Goncharov’sskullcap, )(Safarov migrates fromthehighmountainareaslocated ete rareaboriginalspeciesandinlong-term ratures andmeltingofsnowfieldscouldalso troduction ofalienspecieshasalreadybeen ange canalsocausethelossofasignificant Plantago major to15-20species(Safar 2008). ed theirupperboundaries,andembedded total numberofthehigherfloweringplants ). ItisalsolikelythatSiberianibexwill ), alpinemeadowgrass( etal. ), oxytrope( etal. 2008).Plantcommunitiesofthe zakaznik ), andTurkestanadonis( 2008).Theyplayanimportant Oxytropis savellanica ’s territoryandoccurin the lowerzoneofsub- newspeciesfromthe ov pers.comm.).Itis Rumex paulsenianus Poa alpina ), sedges Adonis ), and ), CEU eTD Collection silverweed ( ecosystem havebeenshrunk(Safarovpers.co Due totheclimatechangedistributionrang boundary oftheirdistribution(Zagrebelnyipers.comm.). partial desiccationofthehighmountainmead biodiversity compositionandspecies’distribution the lastdecade(Safarovpers.comm.).Climatear specialists whonoticedabsenceofthesnowcove this ecosystem.Decreaseofthesnowcoverha Decrease ofprecipitationandreductionsnowco High mountainmeadowsareamongthe valuable communitiesbysecondaryweed(Safarov productivity reducedinhalf.Overgrazingleadsto pastures. Asaresult,nearly30%ofthese steppe ecosystemsis5-6timeshigherthanof and markhor(Saidovpers.comm.). productivity andnegatively affectpopulationsofit steppe ecosystems(Safarovpers.comm.).Th complete restructuringofthemeadowecosystems dock, andsmall-floweredoriganum(Sattorovpe weed plantswillcontinueduetotheexpansionof suchspeciesas and disappearfromtheecosystem(Safarovpers.c (Safarov pers.comm.).Itislikelythatrareen of meadowcommunitiesandreductionthedist Climate changeimpactswillpromotefurtherintroductionofxericspeciesintothecomposition the situationprovidingconditionsfavorableforseedsgrowing(Sattorovpers.comm.). one ofthemainfactorsdistributionaliensp the zoneplants(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorov (Sattorov pers.comm.).Thereisanexpansionof meadows theintroductionofinvasivespecies,in of hydrophilousplantsfromthemeadowsphytocenos as sedgeandmilk-vetchspecies(Zagrebelnyipers Potentilla sp. ), andmeadowgrass(Safarovpers.c most vulnerableecosystemsofthe demic specieswillbeoutcompetedbyalien other ecosystemsleadingtotheiruseasasummer 80 e latterwillcauseareductionofecosystem’s ecosystems arealreadydegraded,withagrass mm.). Thismainlyrefertowildonionspecies, ows hasalreadybeenobservedalongthelower s beenconfirmedbytheobservationsofseveral pers.comm.; Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).Though r inthesummers(evendeepcanyons)during the distributionrangesofweedandaliento ecies iscattlegrazing,climatechangeaggravates omm.). Theexpansionofdistributionranges .comm.). Therearecase cluding thePaulsen’sdock,hasbeenobserved rs.comm.). Allthesechangesmayleadtothe ribution rangesofvaluablehydrophilousplants

idization isalsoconfirmedbythechangesin es ofhydrophilousplantsthatconstitutethe the lossofspeciesandreplacementoriginal ranges, aswellinecosystemboundaries.A and theirtransformationintothelessvaluable s inhabitants,includingthe ungulates-urial ver arethemainclimaticfactorsthataffect is (Safarovpers.comm.).Insomeareasof omm.; Sattorovpers.comm.),aswell etal. 2008). Polygonum coriarum s oftotaldisappearance Dashtidjum Zakaznik , Paulsen’s . CEU eTD Collection distribution, butitcouldhappenonlyiftheanthropog At somepoint,climatechangecanevenpromote has acertainadaptivecapacitytodryandhotc climate change.Itcanbeexplainedbythefactth In comparisonwiththehighmountainmeadows,mid-mountainecosystemsarelessvulnerableto grazing (Safarov affected byanthropogenicactivities,mainly lebetina viper,andringdove.Despitethenatu Animal inhabitantsofthejuniperlightforests suworowii represented bymagnificentostrovskia,Da F and ferulaspecies: of theterritory Mid-mountain coniferforestecosystemsoccurat Mid-mountainconiferforest 4.5.3 forbs-meadow juniperlightforests.Plantcommunitiescompriseofhayplant( The mostvaluableplantcommunitiesofthes ( forests of provide habitatsforrareandendemicplantanimalspecies(Safarov mudflows andlandslides,preservingwater The latterhaveanimportantroleinawater southern partofthe Juniperus seravschanica igure 4-16.Fragmentsofmid-mountain coniferforest ), Echison’sdesert-candle( Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. Dashtidjum Zakaznik ) 2008).

Ferula gigantea zakaznik (Safarov , andaremainlyrepresented et al.2 areformedbytheonlyjuniperspecies–Zeravshan , 008). Eremurus aitchisonii F. violaceae (Safarov rvaz iris,Rozenbakh’sonion,anzuronion( re protectionregime,coniferecosystemsarehighly 81 e ecosystemsincludemotley-shrub-steppeand limate (Safarovpers.comm.,Ustjanpers.comm.). resources. Similartootherecosystems,theyalso , and include: markhor,urial,Tien-Shanbrownbear, illegal cuttingoftreesforfuelwoodandcattle at theZeravshanjuniperthatformslightforests regulationandslopeprotection,preventing altitudes of2,000-2,600maslandcover10-15% the expansionofupperrangejuniper

et al. enic pressureisminimized,asitaffectsthe ), Eduard’sfritillary,andtulipsuperior. 2008).Theyaremorecommoninthe F. clematidifolia by juniperlightforests( Photo credit:Safarov2008 . Rareplantspeciesare etal. 2008).Juniperlight Prangos pabularia Figure 4-16 Alllium ). ) CEU eTD Collection ecosystem include:endangered magnificentos small fragmentsmainlyalong thebasinofObinio forests comprisingofTien-Shanbirchandwillow trees( represented bywalnutandTurkest The mostvaluablecommunitiesoftheecosystem relatives offruittrees(Safarov communities, aswellconsiderablenumberof have ahighimportanceforbiodiversitycons reservoirs, suchastectoniccracks,sandstonela forests withmesophyliclightshrubs.Mostof the northernpartof Zakaznik Mid-mountain mesophylicforestecosystems Mid-mountainmesophylic forest 4.5.4 the Zeravshanjuniperintomoresteppespecies(Safarovpers.comm.). pers.comm.). Itislikelythatthesituationwould of juniperlightforestsbyshrubs(Safarov occurring alongthelowerboundaryofecosys trees (Safarovpers.comm.).Anintroductionof and lossofmesophiloustreesthatprovideashadowedshelterfortheyoungsproutsjuniper (Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.).Besidesanthropogenic composition oftheecosystemcanalreadybeobs Despite aplasticityofthejunipertoclimatic pers.comm.). grass species,includingThomson’sleopardplan hydrophilous plantsbyxericspeciesarebeingobs ecosystem and the combinationofclimatechangeandanthr endangered speciessuchasmagnificentostrovskia effect onhydrophilousplantsthatcomposethec juniper youngsprouts(Safarovpers.comm.).At andoccurbetween1,200–2,600masl(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik etal. andaremainlyrepresentedby 2008). an maple(Figur ingeneral(Safarovpers.comm.).Atpresent,replacementof cover about20-25%oftheterritory pers.comm.;ZagrebelnyiSattorov opogenic pressuretheymaydisappearfromthe 82 yers, andconglomerates.Mesophylicecosystems aggravate further,with conditions, afalloutofthisspeciesfromthe ervation astheycomprisenumerousvaluable the treesaredrawntowardsnaturalwater rare, endemicandendangeredspecies,wild trovskia, endemicanzur onion,andAlbert’s s includebroad-leavedmesophylicrelictforests u andPyanjrivers.Plant species ofmesophylic erved atthelowerboundaryofitsdistribution xerophyticshrubsandsteppevegetationis t, fromthelowervegetationzones(Sattorov

the sametime,climatechangehasanegative tem, causingitsrestructuringandreplacement erved alongwiththedistributionofnewhigh- andEduard’sfritillary(section4.4.2).Dueto factors, itiscausedbythemoistureshortage e 4-17)(Safarov onifer ecosystems,inparticularonrareand Salix sp. etal. 2008).Theyarewidelyspreadin maple-walnutandwillow-poplar ) arelessspread.Theyoccurin etal. a possiblemodificationof 2008).Thesmall-leaved Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection ecosystems (Safarovpers.comm.). have lostthevegetationcover,anddecrease latter, inturn,aggravatestheclimatewarmingdue are aggravatedbytheanthropogenicpressurein the ecosystem’sspecies(Safarovpers.comm.;Za have alreadynoticedasignificantreductioninthe increase ofmeanairtemperaturesthatleadto affect theecosystemanditsmesophilousspeciesar Dashtidjum Zakaznik Mid-mountain mesophylicforestecosystemsareamongthemostvulnerableof replacing bythecommunitiesofexochordaandrosespecies(Safarov ecosystems aredegradingandlosingtheirspecies anthropogenic pressure,suchasillegaltreecutting brown bear,Indianporcupine,andbirds:ringdove habitats oflargemammals,includingendangered plum, barberry( trees, includingSiver’sapple,Cayonpear,Korjin As mentionedabove,forestcommunitiescomprise ( exochorda ( Aegopodium tadshicorum Figure 4-17.Fragmentsofmesophylicmapleforests Exochorda albertii Berberis heterobotrus toclimatechange.Similarotherecosy ), andotherspecies(Safarov ), aswellNevski’stouch-me-not( ) andotherspecies(Safarov desiccationofwaterbodiesandsoils.Specialists 83 d absorptionofcarbondioxidebydisrupted grebelnyi pers.comm.).Climatechangeimpacts a formofcattlegrazing amount ofspringsthatarehighlyimportantfor species suchassnowleopard,urial,Tien-Shan

etal. skyi’s pear,Darvazhawthorn,cherry- diversity.Thevaluab , poaching,andcattlegrazing,themesophylic to theincreasedheatfluxfromrocksthat considerable numberofwildrelativesfruit e thedecreaseofprecipitationandageneral , goldeneagle,Egyptianvulture,etc.Dueto 2008). etal. stems, thekeyclimaticfactorsthat Impatiens nevskii 2008).Theyprovidefavorable etal. Photo credit:Safarov2008 le treecommunitiesare 2008). and treescutting.The ), Tajikgoutweed CEU eTD Collection uncommon speciesasJohn's-wort( The vacantplacesarebeingoccupiedbythe taking place;atthesametimeupperzone zone oftheecosystemshrinkingdi distribution rangesandinrichnessofmesophylic exochorda (Safarovpers.comm.).Inadditionto of xerophyticformationsrepresentedmainly Maple andwalnutforestsofthe which becamedominantforthearea(Sangovpers.comm.). affected bypestsismainlycaused (Safarov pers.comm).AccordingtotheDepartment Ustjan pers.comm.).Aconsiderablepartofthe but alsobythelackofsoilmoisture,aswell of the reduction oftheareascoveredbywalnutsandma up thespaceforxerophyticspecies(Safarovpe warming andaridizationconditionsitwoulddisappearfromtheterritoryof Shan birchisverysensitivetothechangesinso walnut, andTurkestanmaple(section4.4.1)(Safarov The mostvulnerablespeciesofmesophylicecosystemstoclimatechangeareTien-Shanbirch, and inediblethorngrass (section 4.3.1)(Saidov forage resourcesrepresented bymesophylicplants population decreaseofanumber Climate changehasanadverseeffectontheanim by spreadofpestinsects(seealso including Siver’sapple,andpears,thatcanbe valuable geneticresourcesduetothedeclineof Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.).Otherpotentialcons species asDarvazcousinia( extinction fromtheecosystem,and A furtherclimatewarminganditscombinationwithanthropogenicpressurescanleadtothe glomerata zakaznik ) havealreadybeenobservedinthecompositionofecosystem(Sattorovpers.comm.). (Safarov etal. Cousinia darwasica 2008).Atthesametime,itis zakaznik section 4.4.3)(Safarovpers.comm.). of mammalspecies,includingurial,throughthe reduction of thespreadofaxerophilouslackey( Hypericum scabrum zakaznik arechangingtheircomposit ) andmagnificentostrovskia(Safarovpers.comm.; caused bysoiloverheatanddesiccation,aswell 84 pers.comm.; Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). Reduction of itsrangeisexpanding(Sattorovpers.comm.). stribution rangeofThomson’sleopardplantis il moisture,anditislikelythatunderthefurther populations ofsomewildrelativesfruittrees, by weedspeciessuchasbarberry,rose,and hay plant,andsmall-floweredoriganum.Such ingeneral,suchrare,endemicandendangered by spreadofpestinsects(Safarovpers.comm.; treespecies,thereisanobviousdecreaseof equences ofclimatechangeincludeloss ples hasalreadybeenobservedontheterritory

maple treesisaffectedby rs.comm.; Ustjanpers.comm.).Asignificant herbaceous plants.Inparticular,inthelower andfruits,theirreplacement byshrubs al worldofmesophylicforests.Itpromotes ofForestProtection,expansionthearea pers.comm.;Ustjanpers.comm.).TheTien- ), knotweed,andcocksfoot( caused notonlybyillegaltreecutting, ion duetotheintroduction leaf-cuttingbeetles Malacosoma neustria zakaznik , giving Dactylis ), CEU eTD Collection al. Rozenbakh’s onion,andtanner’ssumac(Annexes89)(Abdusaljamov including Darvaziris,Nikolai’sjuno,milk-vetch( numerous speciesthatarelistedintheRedData common pomegranate,grape,andmanyotherspeci tenuifolia (Safarov The majorpartofthexerophyticlightforestcommunitiesrepresentsvaluablegeneticresources endangered CentralAsiancobra,tortoise,andotherspecies(Safarov mammals include:markhor,urial,wildboar, animals ofaridzone.Theanimalworldtheecosy (Figure 4-19).Itplaysanimporta 4-18), andBukharianalmond.Theherbal-shrubpi are mainlyrepresentedbytheformationsofpist elevations of700to1,200masl(Safarov Mid-mountain xerophyticforestecosystemscovervastareasof 4.5.5 Mid-mountain including ringdoveandparadiseflycatcher(section4.3.2)(Murodovpers.comm.). brown bearandurial(Saidovpers.comm.;Zagr zakaznik decline oftheirpopulations,aswelltomigrationanimalsotherterritoriesoutsidethe of areasthatprovideoptimalhabitatsisyetanothe iue41.FoeigGiftsrdu Figure4-19.Pistachio trees Figure 4-18.FloweringGriffit’s redbud 2008;IUCN2010c). ), persimmon( etal. (Saidovpers.comm.,Murodovpers.comm.). 2008).Theycontainwildre Diospyros lotus xerophytic forest nt roleinwaterregulationandprovidesoptimalhabitatforthe ), Bukharianpear( et al latives ofwildbarley( . 2008).Theyoccupyabou 85 wolf,andfox.Amongreptilesspeciesare Astragalus insignis

r factorthataffectsanimalsandcanleadtothe achio, Regel’smaple,Griffit’sredbud(Figure ebelnyi pers.comm.),andsomebirdspecies, BookofTajikistanandtheIUCNRedList, stachio formationisthedominantofarea es (Annex12).Plantcommunitiescomprise stem isricherthanthatoftheothers.Large Pyrus bucharica The lattercanbethecaseforTien-Shan Hordeum spontaneum ), Tajikchesneya,keyserlingia, ), Bukharianalmond,jujube, Dashtidjum t 45-50%oftheareaand etal.

1988;Safarov Zakaznik etal. ), vetch( 2008). atthe Vicia et CEU eTD Collection flowered origanum,bushpea( pers.comm.). Inparticularthedistributionofcomose desert-candle( ruderal communitiesandspeciestypicalforsa pers.comm.; Zagrebelnyipers.comm.).Inthelower by treecuttingsandcattlegrazingthatdisruptna Regel’s mapleandpistachiobyshrubvegetation(Saf the lowerzoneofecosystem,thereisaten zone oftheirdistribution,mainlyattheexpens Climate changepromotestheexpansionofxeroph also expanded(Safarovpers.comm.). cherry-plum treesareaffectedby consequent lossoftreesandshrubsplantations pers.comm.). Aridizationofclimatealsoleadsto species diversityandincreasingmonotonyof observed intheirfurtherxerophytization,distri change impacts.Atthesametime,theyalso Mid-mountain xerophyticecosystemsbelongtoth several hectaresofforestedareaalmostever from thecarelessbehaviouroflocalpeople(Ustjan2006;Safarov pistachio forests.Yetanotherthreatforthefire-p degradation ofthelowerzonexerophyticlig plant ( bulbous bluegrass,sedge( the secondaryshrubsandsemi-sava 2008). Duetoillegalcuttingsforfuelwood,around anthropogenic activitiesduetotheirlocationat Mid-mountain xerophyticforestecosystems herbaceous species(Sattorovpers.comm.). aridity (Asanovapers.comm.),somespecialists observed (Sattorovpers.comm.).In2005-2007yea Prangos pabularia ). Useoftheecosystemsaswinterpa Carex pachystylis Thermopsis dolichocarpa pests; areasoftheRegel’smapleaffectedbyleafbeetleshave nna communitiesofbulbousbarley( ), Baldjuansagebrush( y year(Begovpers.comm.;Ustjanpers.comm.). e ofmesophylicecosystems.Atthesametime,in lowelevationsnearthesettlements(Safarov 86 bution oftheinvasiveweedspecies,reductionin are amongthemostaffectedecosystemsby theexpansionofareasaffectedbypestswitha tend tochangetheirstructure,whichcanbe phytocenosis(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorov dency forthereplacementofwoodspecies . Atpresent,about40%ofthehawthornand observedthedeclinedrichnessofannual vannoid ecosystemsistakingplace(Safarov rone xerophyticforestarefiresresulting

e ecosystemswithahighresistancetoclimate ht forestsandaffectsnaturalrestorationof 15%ofpistachiolightforestsarereplacedby tural restorationoftheforestcover(Ustjan zoneoftheecosystems,distribution arov pers.comm.).Thisprocessisaggravated rs thathavebeencharacterizedbyunusual ytic lightforests,inparticulartheupper ), andchicory( stures andhaylandscausedsignificant Artemisia baldshuanica Cichorium intybus etal. Eremurus comosus 2008)anddestroying Hordeum bulbosum ) hasbeen ), andhay ), small- etal. ),

CEU eTD Collection April (Figure4-20).Agrass coverismaximally March withtheflowering ofearlygeophytesEphe kuhistanica represented mainlybybulbousbarley,bul Valuable communitiesofthisecosystem also befoundhereincludingTurkestansakerfalcon andgoldeneagle(Safarov reptiles areCentralAsiansteppetortoiseandgra Animals, exceptforinsects,arerepresentedby a smallnumberofspecies.Thebackground considerable partofplantsandanimalsbelong 800 masl.Theseecosystemshavedevelopedunder Zakaznik Mid andlowsemi-savanna(savannoid)ecosystemsarewide-spreadontheterritoryof Savannoidecosystems 4.5.6 disappear fromthelowerzoneofitscurrentdi quite sensitivetothepotentialsoiloverheatandd pomegranate, despiteitsresistancetohighairtem relatives offruittreesthathavehighimportan pers.comm; Zagrebelnyipers.comm).Shrinkingofdi to thelossofthesespeciesfromecosys ranges ofsuchspeciesasmagnificentostrovskia, xerophytic ecosystems.Itislikelythatclimate Climate changealsoaffectspopulationsofrare mainly pests(section4.3.5)(Muminovpers.comm.). populations ofsnakes.Otherspeciesthatcanex Meanwhile, thiscanbethecaseonlyinab lebetina viper,whichmaybenefitfromwarmer population sizeandexpansionofdistributionranges tortoise (Saidovpers.comm.).Fromtheothersi and associatedreductionoftheactivityperiod that thepopulationsizeofsomespecieswouldd Climate changeconsequencestotheanimalworl 4.4.3)(Safarov pers.comm.). (Safarov ), Jerusalemsage( etal. 2008).Theycoveraround30%oftheterritoryandoccurataltitudes700- Phlomis bucharica ) andhayplant.Amassvegeta ce asgeneticresources.Inparticular,thecommon stribution alongwiththe bous bluegrass,sedge,Kuhistanferula( tem composition(Safarovpers.comm.;Sattorov are high-grassandforbs-shrubcommunities, 87 climate (section4.3.3)(Nadjmidinovpers.comm). s tothespecieswithsummeraestivationperiod. change wouldcausethedeclineofdistribution de, climatechangecanpromoteincreaseofthe ss lizard.Somerareandendangeredspeciescan high inAprilandcompletely disappearsbythe Eduard’s fritillary,andkeyserlingia,canlead and endangeredplantspeciesoccurringwithin ecrease ofsoils’moisturecapacity;thusitcould theanimals,forinstanceCentralAsiansteppe d oftheecosystemaream ecline duetothechangesinplants’vegetation

pand theirdistributionrangeareinsects,but sent ofanthropogenicpressurethataffects perature andlowamountofprecipitation,is mers andephemeroidsare floweringinearly the dryandhotclimaticconditions,thus ofsuchspeciesasCentralAsiancobra,and stribution rangesisalsoathreattothewild Siver’s appletree(section tion ofplantsstartsin etal. biguous. Itislikely 2008). Dashtidjum Ferula CEU eTD Collection degradation andreplacementofvegetation end ofMay.Vastareasthes and animalspeciesprevalenceofweedde pers.comm.). Thefuturechangesintheecosystem sage arealsoexpandingtheirdistributionra (Safarov pers.comm.).WeedspecieslikePaulsen’ some ephemeroids,includingdesert-candle( savannoid speciesarebeingreplacedbythorn-grassspecies,includingcousiniaandmilk-vetch, by weed-ruderalcommunitiesanddesertificatedspecies(Safarov a generaltendencyoftheshrinkingareasoccu distribution rangeofxerophyticecosystems(Safar Despite theextensionofupperzone Zagrebelnyi pers.comm.). species, duetobothclimatechangeanduseof savannoid ecosystemsarealsoconsiderablythre nutrients accumulations(section4.4.1)(Karimov reduction oftheirpopulationsize short vegetationperiod(Safarovpers.comm.). characterized bythehighadaptivecapacityto ecosystems toclimatechange.Amajorityofthepl Similar toxerophyticecosystems,savannoideco iue42.FoeigJn uhrc Figure Figure 4-20.FloweringJuno bucharica e ecosystemsareusedaspastures(Figure4-21)leadingtotheir due toshortervegetationperiodanddisruptedprocessof by low-productiveweedspecies(Safarov climate changeduetotheirunpretentiousnessand Eremurus sp. 88 pied bynativesavannoidsandtheirreplacement At thesametime,someofthemmaysuffer s dock,small-floweredoriganumandJerusalem sertificated species(Safarovpers.comm.). nge, outcompetingnativespecies(Sattorov

ecosystem anditsintroductionintothelower ant speciesthatcomposetheecosystemcanbe ov pers.comm.;Sattorovpers.comm.),thereis atened bythedistributionofinvasiveweed savannoids aspastures(Safarovpers.comm.; pers.comm.). Thenativecommunitiesofthe will becharacterizedbyafurtherlossofplant systems areamongtheleastvulnerable 4-21.Savannoidecosystemused asapasture ), andscutchgrass( etal. 2008).Productive Cynodon dactylon etal. 2008). ) CEU eTD Collection and otherinvasivespecies(Sattorovpers.comm.). represented bydature( southern partoftheagriculturalecosystem expansion ofinvasiveweedspecies(Safarovpe pers.comm.). Occasionalyearswithahighamou for dryyears.Ingeneral,cropyieldsinlast (Faizov pers.comm.;Boboevpers.comm.).Oneof decrease offruittreesyields,includingapple, fed crops(Safarovpers.comm;Irgashevpers composition ofcultivatedcrops,theirproductivity, Changes ofagriculturalecosystemspromotedbyclimatechangemainlyincludechangesinthe et al. lands. Itleadstothedegradationofnatural extension ofthisanthropogenicecosystemdueto conservation ofvaluablegeneticresources(Figure often representedbyendemicwildrelatives pomegranate, pear,apple,aswellgrainand and aremainlyrepresentedbyvegetablesfr at thealtitudesfrom700to1,200masl(Safarov Agricultural ecosystemsof Agriculturalecosystems 4.5.7 iue42.Futgre ertevlae Fi Figure 4-22.Fruitgardennear thevillage 2008). Datura stramonium Dashtidjum Zakaznik ), dandelion( ecosystems, soilerosionandotherproblems(Safarov 89 pomegranate andpistachio,duringthelastyears leguminous crops.Thecultivatedcropsarevery s’ distributionrange,withtheweedspecies are mainlylocatedaroundsettlementsandoccur decadehavedecreasedby20-30%(Safarov .comm.). Localpeopleemphasizesignificant etal. rs.comm.). Thelatterisalsocommonforthe of culturalcrops,thuscontributingtothe

4-23). Thereisatendencyfortheconsiderable uit treesplantations(Figure4-22),including nt ofprecipitationare the reasonsforthatarepestoutbreaksusual as wellaltitudechar thedevelopmentofrain-fedandirrigable 2008).Theycoverabout10%ofthearea Taraxacum sp. gure 4-23.Wildalmondnursery nearthevillage ), chicory( acteristics oftherain- characterized bythe Cichorium intybus )

CEU eTD Collection fold pace(0.07° In particular,annualmeantemperaturesinthela climate changeontheterritoryof The analysisofmeteorologicalobservationsfor 4.6.1 Climate change Summary 4.6 global significance. indirect consequencesoftheclimatechangethatle safedalak particular, thelocalvarietiesofwheatthatwerecommoninpastdecades– cultivated localcropsbyothercrops,mainlya decades (Irgashevpers.comm.).Crops’productivity years, mainlyduetoclimatewarminganddecrea pers.comm.). Acompositionofcultivatedcrops nowadays theyaremainlycultivatedattheal the pastareasunderrain-fedcropsmainly by thelackofprecipitationatlo During thelastdecades,thereisatendencyofsh consequences forDashtidjum’s biodiversity. 2.9° in speciesphenology.A further climatewarming, vegetation, aswellincreasesinspringairtempe Dashtidjum Zakaznik October andNovember.Themostimportant monthly analysishasidentifiedadecreaseof the followingyearshasshownamarkeddecrease of precipitations.Andifduringth In additiontotemperatureincrease,theclimatech period 1991to2008,aswellachangeof-0.9° has revealedasignificantincreaseofmean 0.5° increase ofmeanannualtemperature С С bytheendof2050and precipitationdecrea warmingtrendobservedinthemajorityofcoun –werereplacedbyaliencrops(Irgashevpe С peryear)comparedwiththebaselineperiod(0.02° isthedecreaseofspringprecipi wer altitudes(Safarovpers.comm.;Irgashevpers.comm.).Ifin Dashtidjum Zakaznik e baselineperiodtherewasanincreaseof12%,the analysisof s fortheperiod1961-2008is0.8° springtemperatures,whichconstitutes3.2° precipitationsforallmonths,exceptFebruary, occurred atthealtitudesfrom700to1,000masl, 90 С se ofprecipitationincomparisonwithprevious st twentyyearshaveincreasedatalmostafour- ifting rain-fedcropstohigherelevationscaused ratures, whichmayleadtoconsiderablechanges ofprecipitationfortheperiod1991-2008.The haschangedseveraltimesforthelast20-30

insummertemperatures. ange ischaracterizedbychangesintheamount the period1961to2008hasshownthat with aprojectedtemperature increaseof1.8– titudes from1,100to1,200masl(Safarov lien, inasearchofhigherproductivity.In ad tothelossofvaluablegeneticresources is decreasing,whichforcesfarmerstoreplace climate changeimpactonbiodiversityof se by20%mayconsiderably aggravatethe ischaracterizedbyasteadywarmingtrend. rs.comm.). Thelaterisanexampleofthe try regions.Theanalysisofmonthlytrends tation, whichisimportantforplant С , whichishigherthanthe С peryear).Theoverall surkhak С forthe and CEU eTD Collection territory ofthe and movenorthwards.Oneoftherepresentative most probablydisappearfromtheterritoryof Some species,includingSiberianibex,snowleopa likely resultinthedeclineofpopulations warming hasalreadyforcedthemtoshifttheirdistributionranges.Furtherwouldmost refers tospeciesofbirdsandlargemammals species withspecifichabitatrequirementsandlim various habitatsandareabletomigrateupwardsorhigherlatitudeslessvulnerablethan to changesinecosystemcompositionanddistributi of animalsaremainlyrepresentedbyindirectimpa climate changethatmayresultinthedeclineof At thesametime,amajo during somewintersthatmayincreasesurvivalratesoftheanimalsandtheiroffspring. may bebeneficialforthemajorityofnon-hibern populations ofpestinsectsandsomerodents.One reptiles, mainlysnakes.Theymaybenefitfrom decade. Anothergroupofanimalsthatmayexpe of populationssomehigh-mountainsspeciesbirdshasalreadybeenobservedinthelast suitable habitats,makingthemavailableforspecies high-mountain areas.Thedecreaseofsnowcove a prevalenceofxericspecies.Otherspeciesthatbe increases inairtemperature.Lackofprecipitation increased population.Onefactorthatprovidesfa mainly referstopestinsectsthathavealre negative. Somespeciesmaybenefitfromclima Climate changeimpactonthespeciesofanimals 4.6.2 Fauna vulnerability species thatfeedonspecific typeofplantsorpr animals, andarepossible toswitchtheirnutritiv vulnerable tothisimpact arepolytrophicspecies of forageresourcesduetothechangesinecosystems productivityandpreyabundance.Theleast Another indirectimpactthatadverselyaffectspopula Dashtidjum Zakaznik rity oftheanimals . ady significantlyexpandedtheirdistributionand ofthesespeciesontheterritory Dashtidjum Zakaznik theirpopulations.Factorsthataffectpopulations 91 e base.Themostvulnerable speciesarespecialist te warmingandincreasetheirpopulations.This , includingcarnivoresandungulates.Climate ey andcanexperiencedifficulties inshiftingto cts. Oneisthedecrease

affects thecompositionofpestinsectscausing rience positiveeffectsfromclimatechangeis r andmeltingofsnowfieldsincreasesarea s ofbirds–blackkitehasalreadyleftthe that feedondiversegroup ofplantsand/or nefit fromclimatechangearebirdsinhabiting thewarmerclimate,aswellincreased ofbirdsfromlowerelevations.Theincrease rd, ringdove,andparadiseflycatcherwould ating speciesisthewarmerairtemperature zakaznik of thepositiveeffectsclimatechangethat ited migrationcapacity.Theformermainly vorable conditionsforpestdistributionis Dashtidjum Zakaznik on. Inthissituation,speciesthatoccurin tions ofthemajorityspeciesisdecrease duetothelackofsuitablehabitats, experiencesnegativeeffectsof variesfrompositiveto of suitablehabitatsdue zakaznik . CEU eTD Collection lammergeyer, severalspeciesofendangeredinsects another typeoffodder.Thesespeciesinclude species diversity. synergetic effectsontheanimalsof climate changeimpactswithanthropogenicpr of species withhighmigrationcapacitiesmaymigr may resultinconsiderabledeclines negative way.Avarietyofclimatechangeimpa reptiles, itisevidentthatthemajorityofspecies Despite thepositiveimpactofclimatechangeonsomespeciesanimals,mainlyinsectsand a threatfortheblindsnakebymakingitaneasypreypredators. reproduction andsurvivalratesofriverinhabitants. temperature insmallwatercoursesandassociated may beexperiencedbythespeciesoffish,aswe green toad,andmayaffectdensityofitspopulati Increased numberofdayswithheavyrainshas lead totheirdeathfromstarvation.Italsoaff with limitedcapacitytowalkonasnowcover,in ibex andinsectspecies.Harshwinterswithheav provide negativeeffectonpsychrophilicspeciesof and maydisrupttheirlifeactivity,includingth species, includinglong-earedhedgehog,Central and precipitation.Increaseofambienttemperatu In additiontoindirectfactors,somespeciesmaybedirectlyaffectedbyanomaliesintemperature lead tosignificantdeclineofthepopulationsthesespecies. suitable habitatsandforageabundance,whichaggravatestheimpactofclimatechangemay considerable numberofspecies Porphyrophora odorata, zakaznik , otherspecieswouldbethreatenedbytherisk ofextinction.Acombination ashen hawkmoth,large-headedmantis, are affectedbythecombinationofbothfactors–decrease Dashtidjum Zakaznik of speciespopulationsinhabitingthe ects tolaihare,constrainingtheaccesstofodder. 92 cts (Annex13)andspeciesvulnerabilitytothem ate northwardsanddisappearfromtheterritory cluding urial,snowleopardandchukar,may Asian steppetortoise, decrease ofdissolvedoxygen.Thelatteraffects e reproduction.Higherairtemperaturesalso a negativeeffectoneggsandtadpolesofthe on. Indirecteffectofthetemperatureincrease

essures wouldmostlikelyhavedevastating y snowcoverhavenegativeaffectonspecies ll asamphibians.Itleadstoincreaseofwater re affectsthehibernationprocessofseveral markhor, urial,Turkestanrat,junipervole, highmountainnivalzone,includingSiberian Indirectaffectofthehe Dashtidjum Zakaznik andmaycausesignificantdeclineofits Dalpada pavlovskii and manyotherspecies.Ingeneral, red marmot,andothers, maybeaffectedina zakaznik avy rainscanbealso , Mustha baranovi, . Whilefew CEU eTD Collection such asKorolkov’scrocus, Darvasiris,Nickolai magnificent ostrovskia,and Goncharov’sskullcap communities ofmid-mountain mesophylicandju endemic andendangeredspecies.Amongthemthe It islikelythatclimatechangewillcontributeto may expandtheirdistributionrangesandoccupynival zoneofthe alpine andsub-alpinezone,inparticularthosewi and shrubcommunities.Otherspeciesthatmaybe they mayoutcompetevaluablenativespeciesandbecomedominantinthemajorityofherbaceous origanum andothers.Underanalteredclimate, and includesuchspeciesascouchgrass as wellweedandinvasivespecies.Thelatterhave Species thatmaybenefitfromclimatechangemainlyincludexerophilousandxerophytespecies, climatic anomaliesandreducetheirdiversityduetothelossofrareendangeredspecies. migration capacities.Perennialgrasseswiths grass andTajikgoutweed,whichwillbereplacedbyweedspecieswithhigheradaptive likely thatmesophilouscommunitieswouldlosema species, mayalsoexperienceshrinkingofdistributi birch. Theherbaceousspecies,especiallyannualgr decline thesizeoftheirpopulations,andevenb mesophilous trees,suchasTien-Shanbirch,Turkest which aresensitivetohighairtemperature The mostvulnerabletoclimatechangeis complicated duetothelackof some floraspeciesof and itsshortening,shiftsofdistribution by temporalshiftsofphenologic well asthedisturbanceoffireregime.Adapti precipitation; theindirectfactorsincludespreadof The mainfactorsthatdirectlyaffectplantspeciesincludeanomaliesinairtemperatureand Climate changeimpactonthefloraof 4.6.3 Flora vulnerability Dashtidjum Zakaznik long-term monitoringprograms. al events,includingtheadvancementofvegetationperiod Dashtidjum Zakaznik

( Elytrigia trichophora a groupofhydrophilousandmesophilousspecies, , whiletheobservationofphenologicalshiftsis hort vegetationperiodcanalsosufferfromthe ranges. Thelatterhasalreadybeenobservedfor 93 and incombinationwithanthropogenicpressure, th highmigrationandadaptivecapacities,which and lackofprecipitation.Amongthemare ecome extinct,whichismostprobableforthe ve responsesofspeciesaremainlyrepresented theextinctionofacons juno,superiortulip,and Maximovich’stulip.

on rangesanddeclineofpopulationsizes.Itis ; aswellprevernalspecies andephemeroids asses, thougharelessvulnerablethanligneous invasivespeciesunderanalteredclimate,as nefit fromwarmerclimateincludespeciesof jority ofvaluablespecies,includingmeadow- an mapleandwalnut,whichmaysignificantly niper forests,including Eduard’s fritillary, veryhighadaptiveandmigrationcapacities most vulnerablearethosethatgrowwithin alsovariesfromnegativetopositive. ), sadgebrush,sedge,small-flowered zakaznik . iderable partofrare, CEU eTD Collection of mesophylicspeciesby morexericspeciesaswe endemic andendangered species. Astructureofth general decreaseinspecies diversityduetothelossofhydrophilousplants, aswellrare, of thecompositeplantandanimalspecies.Inpartic of theircompositions,shiftingdistributionra Climate changeimpactsontheecosystemsof significant amountofxericspecies,includingsub-tropical. mountain savannoidecosystemsaswellmid-moun melting ofsnowfieldsandreductionsnowcove these andotherecosystemsaretheincreaseof with limitedadaptivecapacitiestoclimatechan mid-mountain mesophylicecosystemsthatpossess and isalreadyaffectedtoavariousdegree.The A majorpartoftheecosystems 4.6.4 Ecosystems vulnerability the spreadofinvasivespecies,whichmayleadto impact ofclimatechangeonthesexerophytespeci their distributionrangesando common pomegranate,almondspecies,pistachioand low vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Theyaremain A majorityofwildrelativesculturalcrops,incl expand theircurrentdistributionrange. change includeblackcuminandtanner’ssumac onion andstalkedonion.Theleastvulnerablespecies xerophyte shrub–keyserlingia,andmesophylicsp Many endangeredspeciesmayexperiencesignific single trees. higher airtemperatureandanomaliesinprecipita and Korjinskyi’spear,Siver’sapplewalnut of thisgrouparethosethatoccurwithinmid-mo a majorityofthesespeciesbelongstothefire-p zone oftheirdistributionranges.Anotherthreatis ccupy higherelevationsof Dashtidjum Zakaznik 94 s. Theymaysufferthepopulationdeclinedueto most vulnerablearehighmountainmeadowsand rone species.Amongthemostvulnerablespecies ge impacts.Themainclimaticfactorsthataffect nges, aswellinthechangesofpopulationsize uding rareandendangeredspecies,hasrelatively untain mesophylicforests,includingCayonpear tion, whichleadtosoildesiccationanddeathof zakaznik . Theymaybenefitfromwarmerclimateand r. Theleastvulnerableecosystemsaremid-low- mean temperature,anomaliesinprecipitation,

ant declineoftheirpopulations,includingthe e ecosystemsischanging, withthereplacement the lossofsingletrees,in thepotentialdisturbanceoffireregime,as ecies ofonion,includingendemicRozenbah’s ly representedbyxerophytespecies,including es, exceptthecherry-plums,canbecausedby ll asbyweedplantswith ahighadaptiveand considerable numberofhydrophilousspecies ular, inallzones,exceptofnival,thereisa fig species.Itislikelythattheymayexpand tain xerophyticlightforeststhatconsistof ofrareandendangeredplantstoclimate isvulnerabletoclimatechangeimpacts canbemainlyobservedinthechanges Dashtidjum Zakaznik particularinalower . Thenegative CEU eTD Collection catastrophic consequencesforbiodiversityconservation. ecosystems’ self-recoverycapacityandirreversib mountain ecosystems.Furtherinteractionofthese anthropogenic factorsandclimatechangethataggr consequences ofclimatechangeimpacts.Thus, distribution rangesaswelltheincreaseof the tendencyofreplacementmesophylicspeci only totheconsequencesofclimatechangeduehighanthropogenicpressure.Meanwhile, ecosystems. Atthesametime,itshouldbenoted, can alreadybeobservedonitsterritory,andmainly As itcanbeseenfromabove,clim anthropogenic pressuresandextermination reptiles, suchascobraandlebetinaviper,thou considerable partofforestresourcesandfrui experienced bysomeinsects,butthelatermainly another threatforthenivalecosystems.Thepositiveeffectsofclimatechangecanbe new-coming weedandinvasivespecies.Alossof ecosystem willloseits“short-term”diversitydue species fromloweralpinezone.Atthesametime, species inthenivalzonecausedbyshrinkin One ofthepositiveconsequences species inasearchofsuitableclimates. promoted expansionofupperzonestheecosy valuable nativecommunitiesbyweedandinva by thelossofspeciesdiversity,xerophytization, other territories.Ingeneral, leading tothedecreaseofanimalspeciesdive migration capacity.Distributionofinvasivespeci changesinecosystemsof of theclimatechangeimpactsisincreasednumberplant ate changeimpactsontheecosystemsof of thesespeciesbylocalpopulation. species inthenivalzoneareoneofobvious t trees.Anincreaseof rsity andpopulationsize,theirmigrationto 95 andhomogenizationduetothereplacementof es decreasestheprodu refers tothepestinsects,whichalreadyaffected gh ispossibletheoretically,unlikelydueto g ofareascoveredbysnowandmigration wecansayaboutcumulativeactionofthe

that itisdifficulttorefertheongoingchanges avates theconsequencesforalreadyvulnerable thepoor-studiedpsychrophilicinsectsisyet in along-termperspective, factors willcausesignificantdisruptionofthe le changesintheircurrentstructurewith sive species.Climatechangeimpactsalso stems, whichindicatesverticalmigrationof to thereplacementofnativespeciesby inaformofnegativeconsequencesforthe es byxerophyticspecies,verticalshiftsin Dashtidjum Zakaznik population sizeofsome ctivity oftheecosystems canbecharacterized Dashtidjum Zakaznik it islikelythatthis

CEU eTD Collection terms oftheirpotentialcontributiontoimplemen despite theirrelativelylow vulnerabilitytohotanddryclimaticconditions. Vavilov’s almond(section 4.4.3),whichhavegloba others. Climatechangemayalsoaffectsuchrare speciesasCayonpear,Siver’sapple,and magnificent ostrovskia,Eduard’sfritillary,keyser in theRedDataBookofTajikistan(section4.3.5), aswellsuchrareandendemicplantspecies suffer populationdeclineandbecomeextinct.They A considerablenumberofrareandendanger flycatcher, andperegrinesakerfalcons. the zakaznik territory of habitats. Asaresulttheymaysufferpopulationd altered climatethesespeciesmaybeaffectedby relatively lessvulnerableareTien-Shanbrown affected byclimatechangeimpacts.Themostvu According totheresultsofvulnerabilityassessment,itislikelythatthesespecieswouldbe endangered species,includingurial,snowleopardandTien-Shanbrownbear(Safarov primary conservationgoaltoprotectpopulations As mentionedinsection4.1, ImplicationsforDashtidjumZakaznikmanagement 5.1 of the capacities foradaptationmeasures,startingwith vulnerability assessmentpresentedinthepreviousch for and ensurebiodiversityconservation.Thischapter required tominimizethenegativeimpactsof and underminestheestablishedprotectionregime. and endangeredspecies.Itthereforequestions has shownthataconsiderablenumberofspecies The vulnerabilityassessmentofthebiodiversity Needsand Capacities for Adaptation Measures 5. Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik includeSiberianibexandTurkestanlynxan Dashtidjum Zakaznik itself,andthenfocusingontheassessmentofnationalpoliciesprogramsin managementfromclimatechange Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Otherendangeredanimalspecies ed speciesofanimalsandplantsthe climatechangeonthebiodiversityof 96 bear andsnowleopard(section4.3.1).Underan theassessmentofnaturaladaptationcapacity the achievementofmainconservationgoals lnerable amongthemareurialandmarkhor, tation ofclimatechangeadaptationmeasures. may sufferpopulationdecline,inparticularrare wasestablishedasazoologicalreserve,with lingia, Goncharov’sskullcap,Darvaziris,and

a lackofforageresources,aswellsuitable Dashtidjum Zakaznik The implementationofadaptationmeasuresis of theendangeredmarkhor,aswellother provides abriefoverviewoftheimplications ecline, andmigratenorthwards,leavingthe include amajorityoftheinsectspecieslisted l importanceasvaluable geneticresources, apter. Italsoprovidesanassessmentofthe d suchbirdspeciesasringdove,paradise impacts, basedontheresultsof that mayleavetheterritoryof toclimatechangeimpacts zakaznik etal. zakaznik 2008). may

CEU eTD Collection capacities ofthe measures, aswellarevising the valuable mesophylicandhydrophilousspecies.Clim of ecosystemsischangingwith Many speciesunderprotectionmaysufferpopulati nival zonethatmaysufferextinction.Incaseof main speciesthatareconstrainedinadaptationsby minor shiftsduetosignificanttemperature comparison withlatitudinalshifts,thealtitudinal landscape conditionsandallowsanumberofspeci 2,911 masl(Safarov As mentionedinsection4.1, its biodiversitytoclimatechange.Onesuchcharacteris Dashtidjum Zakaznik NaturaladaptationcapacitiesofDashtidjumZakaznik 5.2 for biodiversityconservation,ma direct implicationsforitsmanagement.Inpartic It isthereforeevidentthatclima is likelythatareaoccupiedbythisspecieswouldbesignificantlydecreased(section4.5.4). temperature andlackofprecipitation,includingTi climate changeimpactsaremesophylicforestsrepres prevalence ofshrubcommunitiesaswellinvasiveandweedspecies.Themostvulnerableto occupied bymesophylicspecies,lossofhydrophilo climate change.Theseimpactsarerepresentedbyforestxerophytizationanddecreaseofareas assessment hasshownthataconsiderablepartoftheseforestsexperiencesnegativeimpacts Mid-mountain forestsareanotherconservationtargetof requirements. a reductioninpopulation sizeduetotheirlimited should benotedthatdespite theclimaticandla anthropogenic pressureduetotheirremoteness from humansettlements.Atthesametime,it additional benefits,asterritorieslocated zakaznik’s conservationgoalsandrequiresdevelopmentimplementationofadaptation zakaznik etal. possessesseveralpositivecharacteristicsthatcontributetotheadaptationof 2008).Itcreatesawidespectrumofhabitatswithdifferentclimaticand , aswellprerequisitesforadaptationmeasuresispresentedbelow. Dashtidjum Zakaznik of itsconservationgoals.Anassessmentthenaturaladaptation aprevalenceofxerophyticshrubscommunitiesandloss te changeimpactsonbiodiversityof y leavetheterritoryof gradient inmontaneareas(Mackinnon2008).The ndscape conditionsmany specieswouldstillsuffer 97 upwards, tosomeextent,experiencelesser Dashtidjum Zakaznik ular, anumberofspecies,includingkeyspecies en-Shan birch,Turkestanmaple,andwalnut.It

migration capacities,aswell asspecifichabitat es toshifttheirdistributionrangeupwards.In shift allowsadjustmenttoclimatechangeby islocatedatelevationsrangingfrom700to theverticalshiftsareimmobilespeciesof us species,andrestructuringofforestswitha on declineandbecomeextinct.Composition ate changethereforeaffectsachievementof ented byspeciesthataresensitivetohighair tic isanaltitudinaldiversityofitshabitats. Dashtidjum Zakaznik. zakaznik , theverticalshiftsmaybring andmigratenorthwards. Dashtidjum Zakaznik The vulnerability have CEU eTD Collection reduces theforageabundance forwildungulates reproduction ofvaluable plantspeciesbytramp of habitatdegradation,as wellasdistributionof activities leadtothedirectdest particular poaching,treecuttingandcattlegrazing (Safarov and underminespecies’attemptstosurvive.They ar adaptation toclimatechange,thereareanumberof Despite thenaturalfeaturesof of humansettlements(Safarov have beendisruptedbytheconstructionof with thesurroundingareas,manymigrationroutes Econet strategy(section5.3.1).Itshouldbehighlig constituted thebasisforrecommend markhor, alreadyinhabitthesurroundingareasof northwards. Manybirdspecies,aswellsuchla those of zakaznik markhor, andTien-Shanbrownbear(Safarov for manymammalspeciesthatcanbeobservedonth particular, itisconnectedwiththereserveofth with surroundingnaturallandscapesthatmayprov Though theareaof trap preventingthesite,andinparticular same timemaycreatebarriersforspeciesmigrati habitats withdifferentclimaticconditions,incr combination ofvalleys,gorgesandmountainpeak climate change.Thephysicalcomplexityofthelandscape for thelatitudinalshiftsindistributionranges, mountain ranges-KhazratishoandDarvaz the possibilityfornorthwardsmigrationofspeci the south-northelongationcreatesavarietyof that allowslatitudinalshiftswithintheareaof Another positivecharacteristicof , alongtheKhazratishoandDarvazranges, Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik andcanserveassuitablehabitats etal. ruction ofanimalandplantspecies,cattlegrazingis themaincause Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008). isnotlarge,itcanbechar high-mountainareas,fromdesiccation. ation onextensionofthearea e samenameandservesasthemigrationcorridor Kulyab-Kalaikhumb road,aswellbyexpansion 98 invasiveandweedspecies. Livestockdisruptsthe easing chancesforspeciesadaptation,butatthe climatic conditions(Mackinnon2008),providing , whichaffectstheirpopu rge mammalsasSiberianibex,snowleopard,and ling downandgrazingyoung sprouts,aswell et al. therefore contributingtospeciesadaptation zakaznik

on. Mountainrangesalsoserveasamoisture es. Thesouth-northorientationofthemain , whichcreatefavorableconditionsforspecies negativefactorsthatconstrainthisadaptation s, atsomepointcontributestothevarietyof ide suitablehabitatsformigratinganimals.In oftheanimals,aswellnaturallandscapes (Figure 4-1)alsocreatesfavorableconditions hted thatdespiterelativelygoodconnectivity e representedbyanthropogenicactivities,in 2008).Areaslocatedinthenorthof e territoryofbothreserves,includingurial, also possessnaturalecosystemssimilarto isitslongnorth-southaxis(Figure4-1) zakaznik . Similartothewiderangeofaltitudes, Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. for animalsshiftingtheirranges (Safarov acterized bygoodconnectivity 2008).Whilethefirsttwo lation size.Treecutting et al. zakaznik 2008).Thelatter , includingthe withinthe CEU eTD Collection According tothisarticle, state state reserves( Protected Areas created basedonthedecisionofGovernment on ProtectedAreas(1996)envisagestheestablis competent nationalauthoritiesdesignatedforthis purpose ( According tonationallegislation,protectedareasare ownedonlybythestateandaremanaged Tajikistan toensureconservationofrareandenda As mentionedinsection2.3.3,differentprotected Possibilitiesforexpansion 5.3.1 well asinshiftsspeciesdistributionrangespol Responses ofspeciestoclimatechangeimpactar Prerequisitesforadaptationmeasures 5.3 minimize climatechangeimpacts. ensure theimplementationofconservationmeasur therefore importanttominimizetheanth temperature duetothehigherheatfluxfromro ecosystems’ capacityforcarbonsequestration,aswe contribute toglobalwarming.Reductionofforest to climatechange.Anthropogenicactivities mountain forests.Poachingreducestheconserva recourses, butalsoreducesthepopulationsize results notonlyinalossofvaluabletreesp Dashtidjum Zakaznik programs thatcancontributetotheimplementa pressure onwildlife(section2.2.2).Abriefanalysis development ofmatrixorbufferzonesaround existing protectedareasnetworks,increasing ranges insearchforsuitableclimates.Theseme are aimedtoensuretheavailabilityofsuitableha latter hasconstitutedthebasisforanumberof 1996).Article24ofthe zakazniks ispresentedbelow. ) -thegroupofprotected areastowhich zakazniks canbeestablishedbythe Law stipulatestheproceduresforestablishment of ropogenic pressureontheterritoryof 99 ecies, whichhaveglobalimportanceasgenetic connectivity amongnaturalhabitats,aswell not onlypreventspeciesadaptation,butalso eward ortohigherelev recommendationsonadaptationmeasuresthat asures, amongothers,includetheexpandingof tion effortsaswellspeciesnaturaladaptation tion ofadaptationmeasuresontheterritory hment ofnewprotectedareas,whichcanbe

of theRepublicTajikistan(Article4)( e mainlyobservedinphenologicalchanges,as protectedareastominimizeanthropogenic ngered species,aswellvaluableecosystems. areas havebeenestablishedontheterritoryof coveranddegradationofpasturesaffectthe of animalsandplantsassociatedwithmid- ofavailablenationalstrategicdocumentsand cks thathavelosttheirvegetationcover.Itis bitats forspeciesshiftingtheirdistribution es aswelladaptationstrategiesaimedto ll ascontributetotheincreaseoflocalair Law onProtectedAreas Government oftheRepublic Dashtidjum Zakaznik ations (section2.1.2).The 1996).TheLaw zakaznik belongs. Law on to CEU eTD Collection extension istheprotection ofxe area ofthe The totalareaofplanned extensionconstitutes1 extension issupposedtobedonebyincor its reorganizationinto development of section 2.3.3)(NBBC2006),theEconetdocument comprisesseveralactivitiesforthe necessary legal,structural,technicalandfina governments offiveCentralAsianrepublics Zakaznik One ofthestrategicdocumentsthatprov actions fortheextensionof State ProgramonProtectedAreasDevelopment, (CEP 2009),NEAPadoptedin2006,andNBSAP2003(section2.3.3).Similartothe are theStateEcologicalProgra (SCEPF 2005).Othernationaldocumentsthatenvi the maingoalsofprogramitse program, doesnotstipulateanymeasuresrelatedtotheextensionof zakazniks measures ontheestablishmentofnew adaptation strategiessuggestedworldwide(section to climatechange,amajorityoftheenvisagedme in 2005(section2.3.3).Thoughtheprogramdoes the StateProgramonProtectedAreasDevelopment One ofthemainnationaldocumentsaimedat Government (seebelow). contradict theLaw,whichisconfirmedbya of state existing ones(Article16)( stipulate proceduresnotonlyfortheestablishment by thestate)( the territoryasastate of Tajikistanfollowingtherequestfromdesignated zakazniks istheStrategyandActionPlanonEc (SCEPF2005).AlthoughtheActionPlan,wh zakaznik Law onProtectedAreas Dashtidjum Zakaznik . Atthesametime,itisev (Safarov zakaznik Obiniou NationalNaturePark Law onProtectedAreas Dashtidjum Zakaznik etal. , withoutwithdrawaloflandfromthecurrentowners(leased m oftheRepublicTajikistanfor2009-2019adoptedin2009 lf is“theextensionoftheareaprotectedareas”(Article2) 2008).Accordingtothe document,themainreasonfor rophytic andmesophylic forests,aswellendemicand . Inparticular,itenvisagestheextensionof 1996).Unliketheprovisionsregardingreserves,which zakazniks, ide specificmeasuresontheextensionof porating areaslocatedmainlynorthofthe ncial mechanismsforEconetimplementation(see ident thattheextensionof 100 1996),therearenoprovisionsfortheexpansion , butprovideageneralbasisforsuchactions. (WWF 2008).WhiletheStrategyprovides number ofrecentdocumentsapprovedbythe 5,000 ha,whichisalmost 30%ofthecurrent notdirectlystipulateanyadaptationmeasures development ofprotectedareasinTajikistanis

asures hasadirectrelationtoclimatechange as wellexpandingtheterritoryofexisting of newreserves,butalsofortheexpansion national authorities.Itispermittedtodeclare sage anextensionofex these documentsdonotstipulateconcrete 2.2.2). Inparticular,theprogramprovides in 2005-2015,adoptedbytheGovernment (activities56,57,59)(GRT2006).The onet Implementation,adoptedbythe ich constitutesanintegralpartofthe Dashtidjum Zakaznik isting protectedareas zakazniks zakaznik Dashtidjum doesnot zakaznik , oneof and . CEU eTD Collection change impacts. for theextensionof area ofthe 2008). Resultsandrecommendationsofthecurrent Reserve that suchdecisionwillbetaken,asterrito of including nationalcompetentauthoritiesonprotected Tajikistan andManagementPlanof Action PlanonEconetimplementationadopted In shouldbenotedthatdespitethedocumentsmentionedabove,includingStrategyand be excludedfromanyeconomicactivity(Safarov ecosystems andwildrelativesofculturalcrops brown bear,see-seepartridgeandothers(corear with habitatsofsuchrareandendangeredspecies core areasofthefirstandsecondorder.They corridors (sections5.3.2and5.3.3),thenaturec activities intheregion.AscanbeseenfromFi analysis ofthecurrentdistributionrarean elements ofnatureconservationzoninghave 5-1). Similartotheapproachemployedfor the currentterritoryof to “NationalPark”,theManagementPlanprovid recommendations ontheexpans biodiversity ofthe document thatdefinesthestrategyandaction Zakaznik well astoraiseitsprotectionstatus,hasb Following theEconetprovisions,necessitytoexpandterritoryof significant contributiontomitigationofclimatechangeimpactsontheterritory extension of leopard, Tien-Shanbrowbearandotherspecies(G endangered specieslistedintheRedDataBook Dashtidjum Zakaznik , havebeenrecentlyexpandedinaccordan . Thisdocumenthasbeenagreedbyvariousstakeholdersandrepresentsanofficial Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik hasyetbeenmadebytheGovernment zakaznik forthenearfuture(Safarov ion oftheterritory andincorporationofareaslocatedathigherlatitudesprovidea zakaznik , aswelltheareasuggestedforitsextension(seeFigure Dashtidjum Zakaznik ries ofsomeprotectedareas,forinstance een emphasizedintheManagementPlanof inthelightofitsbiodiversity adaptationtoclimate gure 5-1,inadditiontobufferzonesandecological 101 d endangeredspecies,aswellsocio-economic the developmentofEconet(section2.3.3), onservation zonesarerepresentedbyanumberof (core areasofthesecondorder),andsupposeto encompass relativelyintactareasandecosystems plan ontheconservationandsustainableuseof beenidentifiedbasedonthecomprehensive ce withtheEconetdocument(GRT2006;WWF et al. asmarkhor,urial,Siberianibex,snowleopard, es thedetailednatureconservationzoningof

of Tajikistan,includingmarkhor,urial,snow researchcanprovideadditionaljustification eas ofthefirstorder),aswellvaluable 2008;Shermatovpers.comm.). RT 2006).Itisevidentthatthesuggested by theGovernmentofRepublic areas,noofficialdecisionontheextension Dashtidjum Zakaznik adoptedbytherelevantstakeholders, etal. . Atthesametime,itisprobable 2008).Inadditiontothe Dashtidjum Zakaznik andraisingitsstatus Tigrovaya Balka zakaznik Dashtidjum , as . CEU eTD Collection

Figure 5-1.EconetelementsofDashtidjumZakaznik 102

Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 CEU eTD Collection territory of 2008). Ifimplemented,itwouldconsiderably migration corridorsimpliesthelimitationof with thecoreareasofsecondorder(F areas ofthefirstorder.Thecorridorss zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik migration corridorsaresuggestedtoconnectcore nature conservationzoning(seesectionabove). employed forthedevelopmentofManagementPlan lists asoneofthepriority mea Similar totheStateProgram onProtectedAreas Plan oftheProgram(Activity 7);thereis designation ofbufferzonesforstatereserves One ofthemainobjectivesStatePr the LawonNatureProtection(1993).Thereareno provisionsonbufferzonesfor and insomecasesprohibited( on ProtectedAreas1996) the negativeeffectofeconomicactivities 1996) the establishmentofbufferzone documents, includingtheLawonProtectedAreas(1 Management ofamatrixarea,or Managementofmatrixarea 5.3.3 populations andhabitatsofsufficientsize(Pereladova and bufferzones,aimedtolinkcorear Econet ofTajikistan(Pereladova same time,migrationorecologicalcorridorscons and NEAPdocuments,orintheStateprogram connectivity amongprotectedareasarequitelimi Unlike theextensionmeasures,nationaldocume Increasingconnectivity 5.3.2 . AccordingtoArticle18oftheLaw,main extension.Thecorridorsofthefirstorde Dashtidjum Zakaznik , aswellintheterritoryof . Thustheeconomicactivityonterri Law onProtectedAreas sures onbiodiversityconservation onlytherehabilitationofbuffer , aswellspecies’adaptationtoclimatechange. etal. s onlyforreserves,andnot inotherwordsabufferzone,isenvisagedbynumberof 2006).Theyhavebeenidentifi no mentioningofbuffer zones inrespectof

onnaturalobjectsandcomplexesofreserves (SCEPF 2005).ThesameisstipulatedintheAction economic activitiesontheirterritory(Safarov 103 ogram onProtectedAreasDevelopmentisthe econd orderconnectcoreareasofthefirst contributetobiodiversityconservationonthe eas toensuresustainablelinksbetweenspecies igure 5-1).Establishmentandmanagementof on thedevelopmentofprotectedareas.At titute oneofthekeyelem r areaimedtoensureconnectionbetweencore ted. TherearenosuchprovisionsinNBSAP Development, theNEAP, aswellNBSAP,

1996).ThesameisstipulatedinArticle60of Dashtidjum Reserve As canbeseenfromFigure5-1,several areaslocatedwithinthecurrentareaof purposeofthebufferzoneistominimize 996). Atthesametime,Lawstipulates etal. nts thatemphasizetheneedtoincrease 2006).Thesameapproachhasbeen Dashtidjum Zakaznik tory ofbufferzonesisrestricted, zakazniks (LawonProtectedAreas , andtheareaproposedfor ed alongwiththecoreareas ents ofthedeveloped , inparticularits zakazniks zakazniks (Law etal. . .

CEU eTD Collection Zakaznik, an essentialbasisforthedevelopmentof their distributionranges,phenologyandpopulation size.Theinformationobtainedwillconstitute allow betterunderstandingofthespeciesresponses components ofitsbiodiversity.Asystematicm measures toclimatechangeontheterritoryof One themainactivitiesthatcancontributeto Othermeasures 5.3.4 zones ofsomereserves(Safarov emphasize theneedformonitoring ispresentedbelow. division ofthearea,whichbelongstodifferentregions(Figure5-1). zakaznik the ManagementPlanhighlightsneedforde and isbeingcurrentlyusedasoutruns(Safarov main partoftheareassuggestedasbufferzones nature resources,butatthesametimerestricts (Safarov direct contactofareasusedforsocio-economicacti been allocatedinadditiontocoreareasandmi Zakaznik The sameapproachhasbeenemployed should beestablishedforallbufferzones(GRT2006). Econet document,thespecificlanduseregulati network hasadirectrelationtotheestablishmentofbufferzonesfor territory ofreserves,butalso interference (GRT2006;Pereladova zones thatareaimedtoprotectbothcoreareas zones notonlyforreserves.Theproposedecolo The documentonEconetdevelopmentisprobably protected areasinTajikistan(Safarov emphasizes theneedtodevelopregulationsonbufferzonesforwholenetworkof etal. withtheadjacentareas.Thelatteristhough and surroundingareas.Ascanbeseenfrom as welltheirefficientmanagement. Abr 2008).Bufferzonesarecharacterizedby zakazniks etal. etal. etal. 2003;Safarov and othercategoriesofprotectedareas,theproposed 2003). adaptation measuresforspeciesinhabiting 2006).Ascoreareasarelocatednotonlyonthe for thenatureconservationzoningof the developmentandimplementationofadaptation 104 it topreventnegativeimpactonbiodiversity.The etal. gration corridors.Theyareaimedtopreventthe onitoring withafocusonindicatorspecieswill signated bufferzonesalongtheboundaryof comprises fragmentsofwild-growingfruittrees, Dashtidjum Zakaznik and migrationcorridorsfromnegativeoutside ons withthelimitedsocio-economicactivity

gical networkcomprisesanumberofbuffer toclimatechangeandidentifyingchangesin etal. 2008).Inadditiontointernalbufferzones, vities withthehabita ief overviewofthenational documentsthat difficultduetothecomplexadministration the firsttoenvisagecreationofbuffer Figure 5-1,anumberofbufferzoneshave the protectionregimethatallowsuseof 2006).Atthesametime,NBSAPalso ismonitoringofdifferent zakazniks ts ofprotectedspecies . Accordingtothe Dashtidjum Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection Sattorov 2006;Ustjan2006). the awarenessofpeopleresponsible formonitori different componentsof biodiversity, includingfl (Safarov components ofbiodiversityanditsmanagement onspecies,populationsandecosystemlevels information onbiodiversityof monitoring itselfisdescribedasasystemfo the monitoring,indicatorspecies,aswellinst monitoring, butprovidesthedetailedMonitoring areas management(Safarov Zakaznik At thelocallevel,requirementsofsy al. focus onprotectedareas,asprioritymeasuresforadaptationtoclimatechange(Makhmadaliev enhancing ofscientificunderstandingthec Plan forClimateChangeMitigationalsostipulatessystematicmonitoringoftheecosystemsand Action Planforbiodiversityc lists theorganizationofsystematicmonitoringfor assessment ofclimatechange species (Safarov activities fordifferentecosystemsandotherco one oftheprioritiesforbiodiversityconservation, The NBSAPemphasizesthenecessitytodeveloplong other activities(CEP2009). of wildanimals,habitatassessmentspeciesin stipulates restorationofresearchacti Darvaz andKhazratishoranges(Activity19) ecology ofthemarkhoranddevelopmentrecommendationsforitsconservationwithin animals ontheterritoryofprotectedareas(Activi particular, theStateProgramonProtectedAreas is highlightedinallnationalprogramsandstra fauna ontheterritoryofTajikistan,andterri Apart fromthelegislativeactsthatenvisage 2003b). etal. arestipulatedinitsManagementPlan,ad 2008).TheMonitoringPlanissupplemen etal. 2003).Inaddition,thedocumenthi etal. onservation (Activity16)(Safarov impact onbiodiversity(Safarov Dashtidjum Zakaznik 2008).Thedocumentnotonlyemphasizestheneedfor vities ontheterritoryofreservesand stematic monitoringontheterritoryof limate changeimpactonecosystemswithaspecial monitoring andcomplexresearchesofflora 105 r air-inventorycollectionandsystematizationof mponents ofbiodiversity,includingendangered (SCEPF 2005).TheStateEcologicalProgram itutions responsibleforitsimplementation.The cluded intheRedDataBookofTajikistan,and ng andprovidegeneralguidance (Saidov2006b; tegies relatedtobiodiversityconservation.In ora, faunaandforestresources, aimedtoraise andstipulatesanumberofmonitoring-related Plan,whichdefinesthemaincomponentsof Development requiresaerialcensusofallwild all protectedareasasone

opted bythenationalauthoritiesonprotected tory ofprotectedareasinparticular,thisissue , aswellfordynamicscontrolofdifferent ty 18),aswellstudyofthebiologyand -term researchandmonitoringprogramsas ted withhandbooksonthemonitoringof ghlights theimportanceofstudyingand etal. etal. 2003).TheNEAPdocument 2006).TheNationalAction zakazniks of theelementsits ; aerialcensus Dashtidjum et CEU eTD Collection the situationwillsignificantlyimproveinnearestfuture. situation inthecountry,aswell (Safarov pers.comm.;Saidovpers.comm.).This implementing monitoringandresearchactivities, it shouldbementionedthatdespitethestrong in speciesbehaviorandcontributetothedevelopm observations, combinedwithmeteorologicaldata, the territoryof capacity ofspeciesandleads tothespeciesloss, Zakaznik northwards. Atthesametime,high variety ofclimaticconditionsandhabitats,an good connectivitywithsurrounding altitudinal varietyofhabitats,longsouth-northax Dashtidjum Zakaznik areas managementandbiodiversityconservation,th measures tohelpmitigateitsnegativeimpa the Vulnerability ofthebiodiversity 5.4 Summary not carriedoutbefore(Safarov Monitoring Plancontainstherequirementsfor In additiontoindicatorspeciesrelevant valuable informationonspeciesresponsestoclimatechange,includingdistributionshifts. Eduard’s fritillary,ringdove,paradiseflyca highly sensitivetochangesofclimaticparameter are representedbyspeciessensitivetoenvironm including ecosystems,flora,fauna,forests,endang the indicatorspeciesidentifiedformonito climate change,theMonitoringPlanishighlyrele Although thereisnodirectreferen zakaznik’s , intheformofpoaching,treecuttingand conservationgoalsandrequirestheimplementationofanumberadaptation zakaznik thatcontributetospecies’adaptationclimate change.Theyinclude . as bythelackofprofessionalhumanresources.Itisunlikelythat etal. ce tothemonitoringofspeciesinrespecttheirresponses Dashtidjum Zakaznik areas withsuitablehabitats.Altogetheritprovides arich 2008).Ifimplemented, anthropogenic pressureonbiodiversityof tcher, urialandotherspecies,mayprovide cts. Apartfromthemeasuresrelatedtoprotected 106 d assistsinspecies’migrationbothupwardsand the monitoringofclimatechangeimpacts, systematic phenologicalobservations,whichwere political andscientificsupporttothenecessityof canbeexplainedbythepoorsocio-economic butalsocontributestothe climatewarmingon their implementationremainsataverylowlevel ring ofdifferentcomponentsbiodiversity, s, includingTien-Shanbirch,Turkestanmaple, ental changes.Amongthemarethosethat ered speciesandwildrelativesofculturalcrops, vant forthesetypesofstudies.Themajority would allowidentifyingclimate-relatedchanges

is, diversityoflandscapeelements,aswell ent ofadaptationstrategie ere areanumberofnaturalpeculiarities cattle grazing,notonlyaffectstheadaptive toclimatechangeaffectsachievementof the long-termphenological s. Atthesametime, Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection poor economicsituation in thecountry,aswell monitoring andresearch program,theirimplemen territory. Itshouldbenotedthatdespiteov significantly contributetotheunderstandingof species’responsestoclimatechangeonits Dashtidjum Zakaznik change impactonbiodiversityasoneofthe pr National ActionPlanforClimateChangeMitigati areas isemphasizedintherelatednationalstra systematic monitoringofbiodiversitycomponent as protectedareasmanagementandarestipulated protected areas.Theseactivitiesconstitutethema change includetheimplementationofmonitoring Other activitiesthatarehighlyrelevanttothedevelopmentofadaptationmeasuresclimate the surroundingareastominimizeoutsidepressur borders of the areaswithsocio-economicactivities.Inaddi They areaimedtodelimitthecoreareaswithahi have beenidentifiedfor all elementsofprotectedareasnetworks.Followi activities onlyforreserves,theEconetdocument envisages thedevelopmentofbufferzonestomi While themajorityofnationalstrategiesandpr enhance connectivitybetweenspecies’populationsandhabitatsofsufficientsize. same document,aswelltheManagementPlanof north ofthe expansion of NBSAP, NEAPandEconetdocument.Thelatter documents astheStateProgramonProtectedArea local level.Inparticular,generalexpansionof development andimplementationofclimatechange enhanced managementofprotectedareashasshow Analysis ofnationallegislationandstrategic Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik providesthedetailedMonitoring ; althoughnoGovernmentdecisionhas Dashtidjum Zakaznik , thedocumenthighlightsneed byincorporating15,000haofadjacentareaslocatedmainly documents aimedatbiodiversityconservationand duringthedevelopmentofitsManagementPlan. protected areanetworkshasbeenstipulatedinsuch 107 tegies andprograms.Moreover,theNBSAP as thelackofprofessional humanresources. erall politicalsupporttothedevelopmentof tion tointernalbufferzoneslocatedwithinthe in elementsofbiodiversityconservationaswell e andsupportthenaturalmigrationofspecies. nimize thenegativeimpactfromeconomic stipulates thedevelopmentofbufferzonesfor gh concentrationofvaluablebiodiversityfrom on listtheresearchandassessmentofclimate

s, inparticularontheterritoryofprotected ng thisapproach,anumberofbufferzones tation remainsatavery low levelduetothe adaptationstrategiesbothatthenationaland ograms, aswellenvironmentallegislation, andresearchactivitiesontheterritoryof iority activities.TheManagementPlanof n thattherearemanyprerequisitesforthe inrelatedlegislativeacts.Theneedfor s Development,StateEcologicalProgram, Dashtidjum Zakaznik also providesconcretemeasuresforthe Plan, whichifimplementedwould been yetmadeinthisrespect.The todesignatebufferzonesfrom , providesmeasuresto CEU eTD Collection inhabiting highmountain meadowsandsteppes. and subtropicalspeciesof plants,weedspecies,pest and mesophylicplantspecies.Speciesthatmaybe vulnerable animalspeciesontheterritoryof and migratenorthwards.Thelatterreferstoseveral speciesofbirdsandmammals.Themost decline andsomespeciesevenextinction.A majority ofthespecies,inparticularrare Climate changeimpactonthebiodiversityof temperatures. regime, aswellmeltingofsnowfieldsan spread ofinvasivespeciesunderanalteredc decrease ofprecipitation,especiallyinthespring well asbypotentialdecreaseduringthewinter precipitations. Thetemperaturefactorismainlyrepr The plantspeciesof temperature, andfrequencyofextremeweathereven changes andspecies’migration.Otherfactors temperature alsodirectlyaffectsaconsiderable due tothechangesinecosystems’productivity changes inecosystemcompositionanddistribution, mainly referstoanimalspeciesandisrepresented Climate changeaffectsthebiodiversityof Zakaznik end of2050,climatewarmingposesarealthreatfortheuniquebiodiversity the decreaseinspringprecipitationandprojections has atendencyforfurtherincrease.Combinedwith warming trendofannualmeantemperature,which The analysisofclimatechangetrendsontheterritory 6.1 Conclusions Conclusions andRecommendations 6. represented bymanyrareandendemicspecieswildrelativesofculturalplants Dashtidjum Zakaznik areaffecteddirectlybyanom and endangeredspecies,mayexperiencepopulation few speciesmayleave 108 limate andthepotentialdisturbanceoffire d reductionofsnowcoverduetohigherair zakaznik s. Theindirectclimatechangefactorsincludethe s. Theprecipitationfactorisrepresentedbya nefit fromclimatewarmingincludexerophilous bythedecreaseofsuita numberofspeciesleadingtophenological zakaznik

includeanomaliesinsnowcover,water and inpreyabundance.Anincreaseofair zakaznik ofupto20%precipi ts thataffectspopulationsofsomespecies. esented byanincreaseofairtemperature,as insectsandsomereptiles, aswellspecies constitutes 0.8°Cforthelastfiftyyearsand aswellthedecreaseofforageresources theanomaliesinprecipitations,particular bothdirectlyandin Dashtidjum Zakaznik aremammals,andthehydrophilous variesfromnegativetopositive.A the territoryof alies inairtemperatureand ble habitatsduetothe tation decreasebythe hasconfirmedthe directly. Thelatter Dashtidjum zakaznik .

CEU eTD Collection Climate changeimpactsonbiodiversityof distribution includetheexpansionofupperzone consist ofasignificantnumber are mid-low-mountainsavannoidecosystemsand affected bymeltingofsnowfieldsandreduction ecosystems aremid-mountainmesophylicforests,as restructuring withaprevalence mesophylic andhydrophilousspecies,aswell their compositionanddistribution.Theformer Climate changeimpactsontheecosystemsof wintering ofmigratorybirdsandshifts and aestivation,others.Theanimalres ranges andpopulationsize,aswellphenological long-term monitoringprograms. Dashtidjum Zakaznik shifts indistributionranges.Thelatterhasal phenological events,includingtheadvancementof Responses ofplantspeciestoclimatechangear leads tothespecies’loss, but alsocontributestotheclimatewarmingonits territory. pressure onbiodiversity of thezakazniknotonly species migrationbothupwardsandnorthwards. habitats. Altogetheritprovides axis, diversityoflandscapes,aswellgood number ofnaturalpeculiarities.Theyincludethe Dashtidjum Zakaznik the developmentandimplementationofadaptation measures. Climate changethereforea xerophytic shrubcommunities,andlossofva become extinct.Thecompositionofmid-mounta and migratenorthwards.Manyspeciesunde conservation: markhor,snowleopardandTurkestanlynxmayleavetheterritoryof management. Inparticular,anumberofsp , whileobservationofphenologicalshifts itselfcontributestothespeciesad ffects achievementofthe a richvarietyofclimaticconditi of weedspeciesandshrubcommunities.Themostvulnerable of xericspecies,includingsub-tropical.Changesinecosystems Responses ofanimalspeciesincludechangesindistribution distribution rangesforanumberofspecies. Dashtidjum Zakaznik r protectionmaysufferapopulationdeclineand Dashtidjum Zakaznik connectivity withsurroundingareassuitable ponses observedincludetheearlierarrivaland 109 ready beenobservedforsomefloraspeciesof s andshrinkingoflowerzonesecosystems. ecies, includingkeyspeciesforbiodiversity e mainlyrepresentedbythetemporalshiftsof luable mesophylicandhydrophilousspecies. altitudinal varietyofhabitats,longsouth-north rare andendangeredspecies,community

thevegetationperiodanditsshortening, includesxerophytization,lossofvaluable snowcover.Theleastvulnerableecosystems changes,includingdisruptionofhibernation in forestsischangingwithaprevalenceof wellashighmountainmeadowsthatmaybe affects theadaptivecapacity ofspeciesand At thesametime,highanthropogenic mid-mountain xerophyticlightforeststhat zakaznik’s aptation toclimatechangeduea iscomplicatedduetothelackof conservationgoalsandrequires havedirectimplicationsforits ons andhabitats,assistsin arerepresentedbychangesin zakaznik

CEU eTD Collection northern slopesoftheKhazratisho rangetoo. recommended nottolimittheexpansionbyt endangered speciesandincreasetheabundance of Mitigation. Theincorporationofadjacentarea Program onProtectedAreasDevelopmentan development andManagementPlanof recommended toexpandtheterritoryof Zakaznik Taking intoaccounttheadverseeffects 6.2 Recommendations Management Planof and amigrationcorridor,thesemeasuresarestipul Though themajorityofnationaldocumentsdo adjacent areaslocatedmainlynorthofthe areas network,andinparticularexpansionof both atthenationalandlocallevel.Theyinclud prerequisites forthedevelopmentandimplemen conservation andenhancedmanagementofpr Analysis ofrelevantnationallegislationandstrategicdocumentsaimedatbiodiversity poor economicsituationinthecountry,aswell monitoring andresearchprogram,theirimplemen territory. Itshouldbenotedthatdespitethe significantly contributetotheunderstandingofspecies’responsesclimatechangeonits Plan of as protectedareasmanagementandarestipulated protected areas.Theseactivitiesconstitutethema change includetheimplementationofmonitoring Other activitiesthatarehighlyrelevanttothedevelopmentofadaptationmeasuresclimate biodiversity ofthe Implementation ofthesemeasureswillallo Dashtidjum Zakaznik itisimportanttoimplementtheadaptationme zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik andprotectingspeciesthatmigratenorthwards. providesthedetailedMonitoring Dashtidjum Zakaznik zakaznik adoptedbyrelevantnationalcompetentauthorities. of climatechangeonthebiodiversity zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik 110 as thelackofprofessionalhumanresources. w minimizinganthropogenicpressureonthe overall politicalsupporttothedevelopmentof s willcontributetotheprotectionofrareand e provisionsontheexpansionofprotected otected areashasshownthattherearemany d NationalActionPlanonClimateChange in elementsofbiodiversityconservationaswell op ofthemountainrange,butincorporate tation ofclimatechangeadaptationstrategies ated intheEconetdocument,aswell

tation remainsataverylowlevelduetothe not envisagethedevelopmentofbufferzones , whichisstipulatedintheEconetdocument. inrelatedlegislativeacts.TheManagement andresearchactivitiesontheterritoryof suitableclimatesandhabitats.Itisalso asenvisagedinthedocumentonEconet asures assoonpossi , andinaccordancewiththeState Plan, whichifimplementedwould byincorporating15,000haof ble. Itistherefore Dashtidjum CEU eTD Collection on biodiversityareconsidered. to updatethecountry’smanagement plansforpr change impactsandtoenvisageconcreteactionpl It isnecessarytoemphasizetheimportance and programs,inparticularthoseonprotectedar biodiversity anditsimplicationsforprotectedarea Last, butnotleast,itisimportanttoincorporate theissueofclimatechangeimpacton of thecountrytoidentifypriorityconservationand adaptationmeasures. expand thisstudyandassesstheclimatechange identifying trendsinspecies’populationsanddistribution.Ingeneral,itisalsorecommendedto Monitoring observationswillallowabetterun majority ofthesespeciesarealreadyidentified include urial,Siberianibex,ringdove,steppeto species thatmaybeusedtostudythec Management Planof It isalsorecommendedtoimplementmonitoring the reproductionratewithafurtherreleaseintonature. urial, markhor,Siberianibex,falc Similar measuresforanimalsmayincludekeeping species andgrowingsomeinnurseries,fo and endangeredspecies,itisrecommendedto species, includingurialandmarkhor,especiallyinth Other conservationmeasurescanincludeaprov consequences. poaching, asitconstrainsspeciesadaptationto ecosystems andspeciesof human activities.Ingeneral,itishighlyimpor important toraisethestatusof activities andenhanceconditionsforspecies’migr as theywillminimizethenegativeimpacton corridors envisagedbytheEconetdocu It isalsoimportanttoimplementprovisions Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik ons andothers,inanimalbreedingcaringcenterstoincrease zakaznik ment andtheManagementPlanof limate changeimpactsontheterritoryof , includingphenologicalobservations.Theindicator asitwillhelptoreduce tant tominimizetheanthropogenicpressureon on thedesignationofbufferzonesandmigration implement adaptationmeasurestomitigateclimate 111 rtoise, aswellbirchandTurkestanmaple.The impactsonbiodiversityofotherprotectedareas ensure thecollectionofseedmaterialforplant , inparticularcattlegrazing,treecuttingand climate changeandconsiderablyaggravatesits in theManagementPlanasindicatorspecies. eas managementandbiodiversityconservation. otected areastoensureclimate changeimpacts r instancewildfruittreesofglobalimportance. s managementintoallre ans forsuchmeasures.Itisalsorecommended ations bothupwardsandnorthwards.Itisalso species andecosystemsfromanthropogenic derstanding ofclimatechangeimpactsand

measures, inparticularthosestipulatedthe e winter.Toavoidtheirreversiblelossofrare ision offorageresourcesforanumber of themostvulnerablespecies,forinstance the negativeimpactsfrom levant nationalpolicies Dashtidjum Zakaznik the zakaznik ,

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adkami s1940po2008 gody [Meteorological Yamin, F.2007.Assessingkeyvulnerabilities ofScienceandManagementProtectedAreas ty andclimatechange.TechnicalSeriesNo.41 ZoologyandParasitologyoftheAcademy andprecipitationsfrom 1940to2008]. of Tajikistantotheimpactsclimate tion ofmonitoringthefauna u monitoringfaunyzakaznikaDashtidjum tion ofmonitoringfloraandvegetation gation andadaptation:ReportoftheSecond f, P.vanderLindenandC.Hanson, nitoringa floryirastitelnostizakaznika [consulted10February2010]. Sustaining lifeonEarth:howthe . Montreal:Secretariatof . Leningrad:Nauka. [Management Reviews , ed. . CEU eTD Collection United NationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP United Nations(UN).1992. Thomas, C.andLennon,J.1999.Birdsextendtheirrangesnorthwards. Thomas, C.,Cameron,A.,Green,R.,Bakkenes, Swarup, A.2009. Stubbe, M.,Samiya,R.,Ariunbold,J.,Buuvei State CommitteeforEnvironmentProtectionandForestry(SCEPF).2005. ______. 2008b. Valdez, R.2008a. Ustjan, I.2006. United NationsEconomicCommissionforEurope (UNECE).2004. ______. 2010.SupportingcountryactionontheCB ______. 2009.Projectdocument"Sustainingagricu ______. 2007. of theConventiononBiologicalDiversity. http://www.undp.tj/files/project_profiles/ as amodelforstrengtheningthenationa new approachestoprotectedareasandbiodiv Extinction riskfromclimatechange. G., Miles,L.,Ortega-Huerta,M.,Peterson, Siqueira, M.,Grainger,A.,Hannah,L.,Hughes International. r%20final%20approved%20(2).pdf http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/40607/0 threatened species.Version2010.1.URL: B., Yigit,N.,Mitsain,G.,andMunoz,L.J.2008. Otgonbaatar, M.,Tsogbadrakh,Zagorodniu Lesnogo KhozjaistvaRT. 2005-2015]. Dushanbe:GosudarstvennyiKo programma razvitijaOOPTna2005-2015 [consulted 2March2010]. http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/3787/0 Center. the forestsofDashtidjumZakaznik].D reviews. Tajikistan 86E9AD0A [consultedMarch42010]. URL: http://www.protectedareas.org/ change inTajikistan".URL: divided world http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/15739/0 Rukovodstvo pomonitoringylesovzakaznikaDashtidjum Human developmentreport2007/2008.Fighti Reaching tippingpoint?ClimatechangeandpovertyinTajikistan . NewYork:UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme. Capra falconeri Ovis orientalis . NewYork:UnitedNations. Convention onBiologicalDiversity(textwithannexes) . IUCNRedListofthreatened species.Version2010.1.URL: . IUCNRedListofthreatenedspecies.Version 2010.1.URL: http://www.undp.tj/files/ENG_project%20summary.doc [consulted3March2010]. Nature [State programonprotectedareasdevelopmentin 119 M., Beaumont,L.,Collingham,Y.,Erasmus,B., ushanbe: NationalBiodiversityandBiosafety

427:145-149. Gisar%20biodiversity/1786%20msp%20gissa baatar, V.,Dorjderem,S.,Monkhzul,T., l Tajikistanprotectedareassystem.URL: ). 2005.Projectdocument"Demonstrating ersity managementintheGissarmountains T.,Phillips,O.,andWilliams,S.2004. D programmeofworkonprotectedareas. show/5E55042A-F203-1EE9-BC9F15BE ltural biodiversityinthefaceofclimate k, I.,Amori,G.,Hutterer,R.,Krystufek, mitet OhranyOkruzhajusheiSredyi , L.,Huntley,B.,Jaarsveld,A.,Midgley, Hemiechinus auritus ng climatechange:humansolidarityina [consulted6April2010]. [consulted8May2010]. [consulted6April2010]. [Handbook onmonitoringof Nature Environmental performance . Montreal:Secretariat . IUCNRedListof . Dushanbe:Oxfam 399:213. Gosudarstvennaya

CEU eTD Collection interview. Dashtidjum,17 April,2010. Faizov, Ismoil.Community DevelopmentSpecialis of Tajikistan.Formalinterview.Dushanbe,13April, 2010. Director oftheInstitutePlantPhysiologyand Karimov, Khurshed.Vice-PresidentoftheAcademy interview. Dushanbe,9April,2010. Dustov, Saidakhmad.DeputyHeadoftheSta Dashtidjum Zakaznik Boboev, Zikriyo.HeadoftheHydrologicalStat Dushanbe, 19April,2010. Begov, Safarali.ForesteroftheShurobad Hydrometeorology oftheRepublicTajikistan.Informalinterview.Dushanbe,12April,2010. Asanova, Valentina.HeadoftheMeteorologi Personal communications Velarde, S.,Malhi,Y.,Moran,D. Zaumyslova, O.2006.Influenceofclimatechan World WideFundforNatureProtection(WWF).2008. Willis, S.,Hole,D.,Collingham,Y.,Hilton,G.,Ra Willis, K.andBhagwat,S.2009.Biodiversityclimatechange. Walther, G.,Roques,A.,Hulme, Walther, G.,Post,E.,Convey,P.,Menzel,A.,Pa Vitt, P.,Havens,K.,Kramer,A.,Sollenberger,D. change onprotectedareasinAfrica. Fund forNatureProtection. river basin the Sikhote-Alinskystatenaturereserve.In individual species’responses. impacts offutureclimatechangeonpro (12): 686-693. Alien speciesinawarmerworld:risksandopportunities. Semenchenko, V.,Solarz,W.,Thuiller,V S., Minchin,D.,Moora,M.,Nentwig,W.,Ott, Duka, Z.,Bugmann,H.,Czucz,B.l.,Dauber,J., 416: 389-395. Guldberg, O.,andBairlein,F.2002.Ecolog plants: changesinlatitudes,attitudes. , 76-82.Moscow:WorldWideFundforNature. . Informalinterview.Dashtidjum,17April,2010. , Wright,J.,andHussain,S.2005.Valuingtheimpactsofclimate P., Sykes,M.,Pysek,Kuhn,I.,Zobel,Bacher,S.,Botta- Environmental Management Ecological Economics 120 te AdministrationforHydrometeorology.Formal Forestry Department.Phonecommunication. ge onpopulationdynamicsoflargemammalsin cal Department,StateAdministrationforthe ion “Khirmandjou”,locatedontheterritoryof Genetics, AcademyofSciencestheRepublic rmesan, C.,Beebee,T.,Fromentin,J.,Hoegh- tected areanetworks:Amethodtosimulate

hbek, C.,andHuntley,B.2009.Assessingthe ical responsestorecentclimatechange. , andYates,E.2010.Assistedmigrationof Climate changeimpactonecosystemsoftheAmur t oftheAgaKhanFoundation. Informal ila, M.,Vohland,K.,andSettele,J.2009. of SciencestheRepublicTajikistan. J.,Panov,V.,Reineking,B.,Robinet,C., Biological Conservation Hickler, T.,Jarosik,V.,Kenis,M.,Klotz, Econet -webforlife

43:836–845. 53: 21-33. Ecology Trends inEcologyandEvolution 326:806-807. . Moscow:WorldWide 143:18-27. Nature 24

CEU eTD Collection “Tajik NationalPark”.Informalinterview.Dushanbe,8April,2010. Healthcare oftheRepublicTajikistan.Form Zagrebelnyi, Ivan.DeputyDirectoroftheResearch of Tajikistan.Formalinterview.Dushanbe,14April,2010. on ProtectedAreas,CommitteeEnvironmentPro Ustjan, Ivan.HeadofDepartmentonReserves Dushanbe, 13April,2010. Head oftheDepartmentNationalBiodiver Shermatov, Khisrav.NationalFocalPointfor University. Formalinterview.Dushanbe,13April,2010. Sattorov, Rakhmatullo.AssociateProfessorofth April, 2010. Forestry andWildlifeServiceoftheRepublic Sangov, Radjabali.HeadoftheDepartment of theRepublicTajikistan.Formalinterview.Dushanbe,14April,2010. Saidov, Abdusattor.DirectoroftheInstitute Dushanbe, 16April,2010. Environment ProtectionoftheGovernmentth Safarov, Neimatullo.HeadoftheResearch of SciencestheRepublicTajikistan.Formalinterview.Dushanbe,16April,2010. Nadjmidinov, Todjidin.DeputyDirectoroftheIn Academy ofSciencestheRepublicTajikistan.Formalinterview.Dushanbe,16April,2010. Murodov, Rustam.SeniorResearchOfficerof Academy ofSciencestheRepublicTajikista Muminov, Nuriddin.SeniorResearchOfficerof interview. Dushanbe,12April,2010. Irgashev Tolib.ScientificSecretaryoftheTa LaboratoryforNatureProtection,Committeeon er specialistonprotectedareasoftheStateAgency 121 Tajikistan.Phonecommunication.Dushanbe,15 of ForestProtection,StateAdministrationfor CBD ProgrammeofWorkProtectedAreas, jik AgriculturalAcademyofSciences.Formal Zoology andParasitology,AcademyofSciences n. Formalinterview.Dushanbe,16April,2010. and NationalParksoftheStateAdministration sity andBiosafetyCenter.Informalinterview. e BotanyFacultyoftheTajikStateNational

stitute ofZoologyandParasitology,Academy theInstituteofZoologyandParasitology, the InstituteofZoologyandParasitology, e RepublicofTajikistan.Formalinterview. PharmaceuticalCenteroftheMinistry tection oftheGovernmentRepublic CEU eTD Collection ** * Annex 1.ListofendangeredspeciesinTajikistan 1 Annex Appendices

EN–Endangered:ataxonisconsideredtobefa ANIMALS CR –Criticallyendangered:ataxonisconsideredto be These specieshave‘extinct’ statusinthe 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

(Syr Daryashovelnosesturgeon) Name Pyrus cajon Panthera uncia Prunus tadzhikistanica Lonicera paradoxa Zygophyllum darvasicum Swida darvasica Pyrus tadshikistanica Pyrus korshinskyi Crataegus necopinata Crataegus darvasica Betula schugnanica Panthera tigris Oxyura leucocephala Neophron percnopterus Falco cherrug Equus hemionus Cuon alpinus Capra falconeri Vanellus gregarius Pseudoscaphirhynchus fedtschenkoi P LANTS the wild(IUCN2001).

Cynpa) N decreasing EN (Cayon pear) (hl) N decreasing EN (Dhole) Skrflo) N decreasing EN (Saker falcon) (Tiger) (nwload E decreasing EN (Snowleopard) (ako) N decreasing EN (Markhor) (avzsia C decreasing CR (Darvazswida) (sai idas N decreasing EN (Asiaticwildass) (Korjynskyi’s pear) Scal awn) C decreasing CR (Sociable lapwing) Sunnbrh C decreasing CR (Shugnan birch) (Paradoxic honeysuckle) Dra atr) R decreasing CR decreasing (Darvaz hawtorn) EN (White-headedduck) (aiitnspa) R decreasing CR (Tajikistan’spear) CR decreasing (gpinvlue N decreasing EN (Egyptianvulture) ** Tjksa’ hrypu) N decreasing EN (Tajikistan’s cherry-plum) (Darvaz beancaper) EN decreasing

**

Red DataBookofTajikistan (Abdusaljamov

cing averyhighriskofextinctioninthewild. 122

facing an extremelyhighriskofextinctionin facing IUCN status* EN decreasing CR unknown CR stable CR decreasing

Adapted fromIUCN2010a Population trend etal. 1988)

CEU eTD Collection Annex 2.ProtectedareasofTajikistan 2 Annex Naturalreserves

# .Krtv 92 440 Zoological 14,400 1972 7. Karatav 50,100 1972 9,000 6. Dashtidjum 1972 5. Kamarov 14,500 4,200 1970 1970 4. Childukhtaron 30,000 3. Saivota 1969 2. Iskanderkul .Zru 20 8,0 Zoological 87,700 2000 4. Zorkul 19,700 1983 Complex 16,100 3. Dashtidjum 1959 2. Romit 1. ualsi 99 19,844 1959 1 Kusavlisai Zakazniks Balka Tigrovaya Name Creation 1938 49,786 Tugai forests Area (ha) forests Mountain forests mountain and Zoological, forests Mountain forests mountain Landscape, forests Mountain forests mountain Landscape, forest mountain- Complex, Protection objectives 123

griseogularis griseogularis bochariensis arctos bochariensis arctos kakelik Golden eagle( Juniper forests( Bukhara wildram( Juniper forest( ( Brown bear( Juniper forest( Juniper forest( sheep ( Snow leopard( ( red wolf( wild ram( Bar-headed goose( sheep ( Brown bear( ( Brown bear( waterfowls monitor lizard( Persian gazelle( ( Bukhara reddeer( deer ( partridge ( ( Protected species Capra sibirica Capra falconeri Uncia uncia Phasianus colchicus Capra sibirica ), Bukharawildram( ), Bukharawildram( Cervus elaphus ), snowleopard( Ovis vigneibochariensis Ovis vigneibochariensis Canis lupus ), partridge( ), partridge( Ovis ammonpolii ), wildboar( ), wildboar( Alectoris graeca ), Siberianibex( ), trout( ), snowleopard( Ursus arctos Ursus arctos Ursus arctos ), partridge( Aguila chrysaetuslaphanea Juniperus Juniperus Juniperus Uncia uncia Varanus griseus Gazella subgutturosa Juniperus ), hyena( ) Cervus elaphus Ovis vigneibochariensis Anser indicus ) Salmo truttamorfafario Ammoperdix Ammoperdix Sus scrofa ), brownbear( ), brownbear( ) Sus scrofa ), BukharaRed ), Siberianibex ), Bukharawild ), snowleopard ) Uncia uncia ), Siberianibex ), Bukharawild Ovis vignei Ovis vignei Alectorius Hyaena hyaena ), Ta Capra sibirica), ), birch( ) and Uncia uncia ), Pamir ), pheasant ) j ) ik markhur ), gray ) Betula Ursus Ursus ) ), ), ),

) ) CEU eTD Collection Adapted fromSafarov National Parks

3 ue 18 30,000 1984 Botanical 14. 6,000 1983 13. Nurek 2,300 1976 Zoological 12. Almasi 15,000 1977 11. Zeravshan 10. Oktash 3. 2. 1. Zoological 66,916 1972 50,900 9. Muzkul 1972 8. Sangvor microzakaznik Sajoda “Sari-khosor” Natural Park Park Tajik National “Shirkent” Natural Park Historical

2005 3,805 2002 2,611,674 1993 3,000 2008 240

forests mountain Complex, tugai forests С ecosystems mountain High- forests Mountain

zoological forests, Mountain zoological botanical, landscape, Complex, landscape forests, Mountain omplex, 124

griseogularis ( Bukhara wildram( Ungernia victoris deer ( Pheasant ( peregrinus Bukhara wildram( wild ram( Bar-headed goose( Pamir wildram( Vipera lebetina Valuable mid-mountainforests ( tibetanus snow partridge( lupus Snow leopard(

chrysaetus ibex ( arctos), Juniper forest( ammon polii ecosystems, tugai,Pamirwildram( High-mountain, meadow-steppe,desert Ungernia ( bochariensis Bukhara wildram(urial)( Ursus arctos Capra sibirica ) Capra sibirica Cervus elaphusbactrianus snowleopard( ) ), sakerfalcon( ), sakerfalcon( ), juniperforest( Ovis ammonpolii ), snowleopard( Phasianus colchicus Ungernia ), Siberianibex( ), partridge( ), snowleopard( , peregrinefalcon( Juniperus Uncia uncia Tetraogallus tibetanus Ovis ammonpolii ), goldeneagle( et al ) Ovis vignei Ovis vigneibochariensis Anser indicus Uncia uncia . 2003,NBBC2009 ), brownbear( Ammoperdix Falco cherrug Falco cherrug ), Siberianibex ), redwolf( Ovis vignei Capra sibirica Juniperus ), Bukharared Uncia uncia ) ), brownbear Uncia uncia ), Pamir ), Tibetian ), Siberian Falco Aquila ), ) Ovis ), etc. Canis ) Ursus ), ), ) CEU eTD Collection Changeinannualprecipitation patternsinTajikistan Annex3.ClimatechangepatternsinTajikistan 3 Annex Annual temperatureanomaliesinTajikistan Source:Makhmadaliev 125 Source:Makhmadaliev

etal. etal. 2008 2008 CEU eTD Collection Annex 4.Listofinterviewees Annex 4 8 Mr.Faizali 18 Mr.Zikriyo 17 Mr.Ismoil 16 Mr.Safarali 15 14 Mr. Khisrav 13 Dr. Rad 12 Mr. Ivan 11 Dr. Todjidin Dr.Tolib 10 Dr.Nuriddin 9 Dr.Rustam 8 Ms.Valentina 7 Mr.Ivan 6 5 Dr. Rakhmatullo 4 Dr. Saidakhmad Dr.Abdusattor 3 2 Dr. Neimatullo 1 Prof. Khurshed Name SANGOV SHARIPOV BOBOEV FAIZOV BEGOV SHERMATOV ZAGREBELNYI NADJMIDINOV IRGASHEV MUMINOV MURODOV ASANOVA USTJAN SATTOROV DUSTOV SAIDOV SAFAROV KARIMOV j abali

Farmer “Murodi Sharif”FarmAssociation, T Institution, Position Associate Professor Forester Wildlife Service,HeadofDepartment State AdministrationforForestryand Hydrological Station“Khirmandjou, Development Specialist Aga KhanFoundation,Community Dashtid Center, HeadofDepartment National BiodiversityandBiosafety Deputy Director Research PharmaceuticalCenter, Deputy Head Institute ofZoologyandParasitology, Scientific Secretary Tajik AcademyofAgriculturalSciences, Senior ResearchOfficer Institute ofZoologyandParasitology, Senior ResearchOfficer Institute ofZoologyandParasitology, Hydrometeorology, HeadofDepartment State Administrationfor Head ofDepartment State AdministrationonProtectedAreas, Hydrometeorology, DeputyHead State Administrationfor Head Institute ofZoologyandParasitology, Protection, Head Research LaboratoryforNature Plantphysiology;climate CBD NationalFocalPoint, Academy ofScience,Vice-President a j ik StateNationalUniversity,

j um Forestry, 126

edMeteorologicalobservations, Head Dashtidjum Zakaznik Flora andecosystems; Relevant areaofexpertise Dashtidjum Zakaznik Protected areasmanagement climate change Forestry, invasivespecies, Dashtidjum Zakaznik Protected areasmanagement Dashtidjum Zakaznik Protected areas, Dashtidjum Zakaznik Econet, protectedareas Dashtidjum Zakaznik Flora andecosystems; impacts Reptiles, climatechange impacts; Agriculture; climatechange impacts Insects, climatechange Birds, climatechangeimpacts Dashtidjum area and analysis;climatechange; Meteorological observations impacts; Forestry; climatechange change Animal physiology,climate impacts; Fauna; climatechange Dashtidjum Zakaznik protected areasmanagement; Flora andecosystems; change impacts Dashtidjum area Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik

CEU eTD Collection Dashtidjum Zakaznik What kindofchangesinspeciesdistributionra What kindofphenologicalchangeshavebeenobserved ontheterritoryof last years? What canyousayaboutspreadofin Zakaznik What canyousayaboutfrequencyofextr Zakaznik What canyousayabouttemperatureandprecipitationanomaliesontheterritoryof zakaznik What obstaclesdoyouseeforimplementationof Which measureshavethehighestpriority? What measuresshouldbeundertakentominimizeclimatechangeimpactonprotectedareas? What ecosystemsof What speciesof What speciesof What arethemainimpactsfromclimatechangeonmanagementof What arethemainimpactsfromclimatechangeonbiodiversityof In youropinion: assessment. Please tellmeaboutyourexperienceofworkin Annex 5.Listofsamplequestions Annex5 andatcountrylevel? duringlastyears? during lastyears? Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik ? Dashtidjum Zakaznik aretheleastthreatenedbyclimatechange?Why? arethemostthreatenedbyclimatechangeimpacts?Why? vasive speciesontheterritoryof arethemostsensitivetoclimatechange?Why? eme weathereventsontheterritoryof 127 Dashtidjum Zakaznik nges havebeenobservedontheterritoryof

adaptationmeasuresontheterritoryof Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik /climate changevulnerability Dashtidjum Zakaznik Dashtidjum Zakaznik ? Dashtidjum Dashtidjum ? forthe ? Annex 6 Н ОЦЕНКА Annex 6.Sampletableforinterviews Краткое Диапазон изменение Конкретные Потенциальные видового Любые Наблюдаемые Пояснение Подчеркнуть Общая АЗВАНИЕ

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CEU eTD Collection Annex 7.Distributionofkeyendangeredanimalspecies Annex 7

129

Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 CEU eTD Collection Annex 8.DashtidjumZakaznik:SpecieslistedintheIUCNRedList Annex 8 Swida darvasica Rhus coriaria Pyrus korshinskyi Pyrus cajon Malus sieversii Crataegus darvasica Amygdalus bucharica Plants Testudo horsfieldii Panthera uncia Ovis orientalis Capra falconeri Neophron percnopterus Falco cherrug Columba eversmanni Animals Scientific Name Darvaz’s swida Tanner's sumac Korshinskyi’s pear Cayon pear Siver’s apple Darvaz’s hawthorn Bucharian almond tortoise Central Asian Snow leopard Urial Markhor Egyptian vulture Saker falcon Pale-backed pigeon Common name 130 Class Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae

Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Reptilia Aves Aves Aves Source: AdaptedfromIUCN2010c IUCN category Endangered Endangered Endangered Decreasing Endangered Endangered Decreasing Endangered Decreasing Endangered Decreasing Endangered Decreasing Vulnerable Decreasing Vulnerable Decreasing Vulnerable Decreasing Vulnerable Decreasing Vulnerable n/a Vulnerable Decreasing Critically Critically Critically Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Trend CEU eTD Collection Annex 9. Annex 9 No. 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 26 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Scientific Name Garrulax lineatusbilkevitchi Zarudny Terpsiphone paradisileucogaster Swain. Animal species Apus affinisgalilejensisAntorini Columba palumbuscasiotisBp. Ammoperdix griseogularisBrandt Falco peregrinusbabylonicusSclat. Falco cherrugcoatsiDementijev Reptilia Aquila chrysaetusdaphaneaMenzbier Reptilia Neophron percnopterusL. Reptilia Circaetus feroxheptneriDementijev Reptilia Reptilia Eumeces schneideriDaudin Vipera lebetinaturanicaCernow Naja oxianaEichward Lycodon striatusbicolorNicolsky Eryx tataricusLichtenstein Typhlops vermicularisMerrem Gypaetus barbatushemachalanusHutt Insecta Insecta Insecta Insecta Insecta Netelia fuscicornisHolmg. Insecta Dolbinopsis griseaHamps. Insecta Insecta Polyommatus kogistanaGr.-Gr. Mustha baranoviKir. Dalpada pavlovskiiKir. Insecta Porphyrophora odorataArch. Mantis macrocephalaLindt Rivetina beybienkoiLindt Hierodula tenuidentataSaussure Dashtidjum Zakaznik:SpecieslistedinTajikRedDataBook

131

Reptilia Class А А А А А А А А А А А ves ves ves ves ves ves ves ves ves ves ves Critically endangered Rare, endangered Rare, endangered Relict, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Rare, declining Endangered Endangered Relict, rare Declining Declining Status Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare

CEU eTD Collection 14 13 12 11 10 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 16 15 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Plant species Ovis vigneibochariensisNasonov Capra falconeriheptneriZalkin Mammalia Uncia unciaSchreber Felis lynxisabellinaBlyth Mammalia Lutra lutraseistanicaBirula Ursus arctosisabellinusHorsfield Vormela peregusnakoshevnikoviSatunin Mustela nivalispallidaBarrett-Hamilton Mammalia Mammalia Hystrix leucurasatuniniMuller Myotis mystacinusKuhl Rhinolophus ferrumequinumSchreber Rhinolophus hipposiderosBechstein Myophonus caeruleusturkestanicusZarudny Tadarida teniotisRafinesque Juno nicolaiVved Iris darvasicaRegel Crocus korolkoviiRegeletMaw. Jurinea impressinervisIljin Ostrowskia magnificaRegel Weisia papillosissimaLasar Tortula ferganensisLasar Fissidens karataviensisSams limrsnahau ee Angiospermae Allium suworowiiRegel Allium stipitatumRegel Allium rosenbachianumRegel Keyserlingia mollis(Royle)Boiss. Chesneya tadzhikistanaBoriss Astragalus insignisGontsch Eremurus roseolusVved Eremurus aitchisoniiBaker .

. .

. .

. .

132

Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Mammalia Bryophyta Bryophyta Bryophyta А ves Declining Rare Rare Endangered Endangered Rare, Endangered Endangered declining Rare, endangered Declining Rare Rare Declining Endangered Rare Declining Declining Endangered Rare Declining Rare Declining Rare, declining Declining Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare

CEU eTD Collection 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 wd avsc Pjr. oa Angiospermae Malus sieversii(Ledeb.)Roem. Pyrus cajonZapr Swida darvasica(Pojark.)Sojak Valerianella kulabensisLipsky.exLincz Parasilaus asiaticus(Korov.)M.Pimen Bunium persicum(Boriss.)B.Fedtsch Rosa longisepalaKoczk Prunus darvasicaTemberg Crataegus darvasicaPojark Amygdalus vaviloviiM.Pop Delphinium decoloratumOvcz.etKoczk nmn uhrc ee i.e anp Angiospermae Anemone bucharicaRegelFin.etGagnep. Angiospermae Punica granatumL Polygonum ovczinnikoviiCzuk Atraphaxis aveniaBotsch Paeonia intermediaC.A.Mey. Eulophia turkestanica(Litv.)Schlechter Ficus caricaL. Ficus afghanistanicaWarb Vassilczenkoa sogdiana Tulipa tubergenianaHoog Tulipa subquinquefoliaVved Tulipa praestansHoog Tulipa maximowicziiRegel Scilla raevskianaRegel Cousinia darwasicaC.Winkl Petilium eduardii(Regel)Vved

. .

. ( Lincz .

. .

. . . Angiospermae

. . .) Lincz Adapted fromAbdusaljamov . . .

. . 133

Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Angiospermae Rare Rare Endangered Declining Rare Rare Endangered Rare Endangered Declining Declining Rare Rare Endangered Rare Rare Endangered Declining Endangered Rare Declining Rare Declining Declining Declining Rare Declining et al. 1988;Safarov et al. 2008 CEU eTD Collection Annex 10.Distributionofkeyendangeredplantspecies 10 Annex

134

Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 CEU eTD Collection Annex 11.Distributionofkeywildrelativesculturalplants 11 Annex

135

Source: AdaptedfromNoosfera2008 CEU eTD Collection Annex 12.DashtidjumZakaznik:Wildrelativesofculturalplants Annex 12 No. 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 mgau uhrc os. Amygdalus bucharicaKorsh. Elaeagnus orientalisL. Elaeagnus angustifoliaL. Pistacia veraL. Punica granatumL. Vitis viniferaL. Crataegus darvasicaPojark. Crataegus turkestanica Crataegus ponticaC.Koch. Scientific Name yu ao ar Pyrus cajonZapr. Pyrus bucharicaLitv. Ribes malvifoliumPojark. Ribes meyeriiMaxim. Berberis multispinosaZapr. Berberis heterobotrysE.Wolf Ficus caricaL. Keyserlingia mollis(Royle)Boiss. Celtys caucasicaWilld. Malus sieversii(Ledeb.)Roem. Amygdalus vaviliviiM.Pop.

136

No. 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 Source: AdaptedfromSafarov Cerasusverrucosa(Franch.)Nevski. PrunusdarvasicaTember Vitex agnus-castusL. Prunus sogdianaVass. Scientific Name Rubus turkestanicusRegel Rosa caninaL. Rosa beggerianaScherenk Cerasus erythrocarpaNevski. Rhus coriariaL. Pyrus korshinskyiLitv. Calophaca grandifloraRegel Hippophae rhamnoidesL. Zizyphus jujubaMill. Ampelopsis vitifolia(Boiss.)Planch. Rubus caesiusL. Sorbus turkestanica(Franch.)Hedl Sorbus persicaHedl. Juglans regiaL. Rosa divinaSumn. Rosa maracandicaBunge

et al. 2008 CEU eTD Collection Reptiles Birds Decreaseofsuitablehabitats;decrease Carnivores Decreaseofforageresources;coldwinters Ungulates Decreaseofsuitablehabitatsandforage Hares Rodents Bats Anomalies inairtemperatureaffect Insectivores Mammals Annex 13.Summaryofclimatechangeimpactsonanimalspecies Annex 13 nraeo rdtr sae) Lizards Increase ofpredators(snakes) Chukar Cold winterswithheavysnowcover prey and/orforageabundance. Decrease offorageresources with heavysnowcover All resources Increased abundanceofpestinsects with lowmigrationcapacities Decrease ofsuitablehabitatscombined hibernation process Main impact nraeo ryaudne Snake-eagle Increase ofpreyabundance melting ofsnowfields Increase ofsuitablehabitatsduetothe resources Decrease ofsuitablehabitatsandforage Urial,Siberianibex Urial Cold winterswithheavysnowcover Decrease ofsuitablehabitats hibernation process Anomalies inairtemperatureaffect Blindsnake All Indirect negativeeffectofheavyrains Increase offorageresources(insects) period ofactivity forage resourcesaffecthibernationand Anomalies intemperatureanddecreaseof

137

Tian-Shan brownbear Turkestan lynx,snowleopard, Tolai hare juniper vole,redmarmot Indian porcupine,Turkestanrat, Long-eared hedgehog Main speciesconcerned Urial, markhor,wildboar High-mountain species lammergeyer, falcons Ring dove,paradiseflycatcher, Rare andendangeredspecies Central Asiansteppetortoise CEU eTD Collection Insects Fishes Amphibians resources Decrease ofsuitablehabitatsandforage associated decreaseofdissolvedoxygen Increase ofwatertemperatureand tadpole Negative affectofheavyrainsoneggsand conditions forspecies Warmer climatecreatesunfavorable conditions forspeciesdistribution Warmer climatecreatesfavorable desiccation ofsmallwaterbodies Decrease ofbreedingsitesduetothe 138

mantis ashen hawkmoth,large-headed baranovi, Porphyrophoraodorata, Dalpada pavlovskii water bodies All speciesinsmallriversand Green toad Inhabitants ofnivalecosystems Pest insects Green toad,marshfrog , Mustha CEU eTD Collection Annex 14.Taxonomicnomenclature Annex 14 Ursus arctostiancshanicus Uncia unciaSchreber Tadarida teniotis Sus scrofa Rhinolophus hipposideros Rhinolophus ferrumequinum Rattus turkestanicus Pipistrellus pipistrellus Ovis vigneibochariensis Myotis oxygnathus Myotis mystacinus Mustela nivalis Microtus carruthersi Meles meles Martes foina Marmota caudata Lynx lynx Lutra lutra Lepus tolai Hystrix leucurasatunini Hemiechinus auritus Ellobius tancrei Dryomus nitedula Carpa falconeriheptneri Capra sibirica Apodemus sylvatycus Mammals Animal species Scientific Name

Tien-Shan brownbear Snow leopard Free-tailed bat Wild boar Greater horseshoe Lesser horseshoe Turkestan rat Common pipistrelle Urial Lesser mouse-earedBat Whiskered Bat Least weasel Juniper vole Badger Stone marten Red marmot Turkestan lynx Central Asianotter Hare-tolai Indian porcupine Long-eared hedgehog Zaisan molevole Tree dormouse Markhor Siberian ibex Forest mouse English CommonName 139

of mainDashtidjumspecies Тяньшанский Снежный Широкоухий Кабан Малый Большой Туркестанская Нетопырь Уриал Остроухая Усатая Ласка Арчовая Барсук Каменная Красный Туркестанская Среднеазиатская Заяц Индийский Ушастый Восточная Лесная Винторогий Сибирский Лесная Russian CommonName - толай

ночница соня мышь подковонос

полевка

сурок

ёж подковонос барс - куница

карлик ночница слепушонка

козерог

дикобраз

козел

складчатогуб

бурый

крыса рысь

выдра

медведь

CEU eTD Collection Motocilla cinereacaspica Motocilla albadukhunensis Lanius schach Ibidorhyncha struthersii Hirundo rustica Gypaetus barbatushemachalanus Garrulax lineatusbilkevitchi Falco peregrinusbabylonicus Falco cherrugcoatsi Emberiza ciapar Emberiza calandra Emberiza bruniceps Columba palumbuscasiotis Columba eversmanni Coccothraustes coccothrausteshumi Circaetus feroxheptneri Chloris chloristurkestanicus Caprimulgus europaeus Cannabia cannabiabella Buteo rufinus Aquila chrysaetusdaphanea Apus affinisgalilejensis Anthus camprestrisgriseus Ammoperdix griseogularis Alectoris kakelik Acridotheres tristis Birds С С Vulpes vulpes Vormela peregusna rocidura suaveolens anis lupus

Long-tailed shrike Ibis bill Lammergeier Streaked laughing-thrush Peregrine falcon Saker falcon Rock bunting Common bunting Red-headed bunting Ring dove Pale-backed pigeon Indian grosbeak Snake-eagle Turkestan greenfinch Nightjar Turkestan linnet Long-legged buzzard Golden eagle Little swift Tawny pipit See-see partridge С Common myna Lesser white-toothedshrew Wolf Fox Marbled polecat Rock wagtail White wagtail Barn swallow hukar

140

Сорокопут Серпоклюв Бородач Кустарница Рыжеголовый Туркестанский Горная Просянка Желчная Вяхирь Сизый Индийский Орел Туркестанская Козодой Туркестанская Курганник Беркут Черный Полевой Пустынная Кеклик Майна Малая Волк Лиса Перевязка Горная Белая Деревенская

-

змееяд

трясогузка

белозубка

голубь овсянка трясогузка

стриж

конек

овсянка

куропатка

дубонос

ласточка

сапсан

зеленушка коноплянка

балобан

CEU eTD Collection Vipera lebetinaturanica Typhlops vermicularis Ophisaurus apodus Natrix tesselata Naja oxiana Lycodon striatusbicolor Gymnodactylus fedtschenkoi Eumesces schneideri Eryx tataricus Elaphe dione Coluber ravergieri Agreonomys horsfieldi Agama lehmanni Agama caucasica Ablepharus brandti Reptiles Turdus merula Tringa hypolevcos Tetraogallus himalayensis Terpsiphone paradiseleucogaster Strix aluco Streptopelia senegalensis Riparia rupestris Pyrrhocorax graculusforsythia Oriolus orioluskundoo Neophron percnopterus Milvus korschun Myophonus caeruleus Mycerobas carnipes

Central Asianlebetinaviper Blind snake Grass lizard Water snake Central Asiancobra Striated wolfsnake Naked-toed gecko Long-legged skink Oriental boa Pallas' coluber Mountain racer tortoise Central Asiansteppe Turkestan agama Caucasian agama Asian snake-eyedskink Blackbird Common sand-piper Himalayan snowcock Paradise flycatcher Tawny owl Laughing dove Sand martin Alpine chough Indian goldenoriole Egyptian vulture Black kite Blue whistling-thrush White-winged grosbeak 141

Среднеазиатская Червеобразная Желтопузик Уж Среднеазиатская волкозуб Поперечнополосатый Голопалый Длинноногий Восточный Узорчатый черепаха Среднеазиатская Туркестанская Кавказская Черный Перевозчик Гималайский Райская Серая Малая Скалистая Альпийская Индийская Стервятник Коршун Синяя Арчовый Разноцветный Азиатский

водяной

неясыть птица голица

мухоловка

дрозд

дубонос

ласточка

гологлаз агама

иволга полоз

геккон удавчик

галка

улар

сцинк агама

полоз слепозмейка

гюрза кобра степная

CEU eTD Collection Asteraceae Artemisia baldshuanica Amygdalus vavilovi Amygdalus bucharica Alllium suworowii Allium stipitatum Allium Rosenbachianum Aegopodium tadshicorum Adonis turkestanicus Acer turkestanicum Acer regelii Plant species Porphyrophora odorata Netelia fuscicornis Mustha baranovi Dalpada pavlovskii, Rivetina beybienkoi Polyommatus kogistana Mantis macrocephala Hierodula tenuidentata Dolbinopsis grisea Insects Varicarhinus heratensis Schizothorax intermedius Nemachilus stoliczkai Nemachilus pardali Glyptosternon reticulatum Fishes Rana ridibunda Bufo viridis Amphibians Aster Baldjuan sagebrush Vavilov’s almond Bukharian almond Anzur onion Stalked onion Rozenbah’s onion Tajik goutweed Turkestan adonis Turkestan maple Regel’s maple n/a n/a n/a n/a Bei-Bienko groundmantis Kuhistan blue Large-headed mantis Wood mantis Ashen hawkmoth Samarkand khramulya Common marinka Tibetan beardie Tajik beardie Turkestan somik Marsh frog Green toad 142

червец Душистый Нетелия Муста Дальпада Риветина Кухистанская Мантис Древесный Ясеневый Самаркандская Обыкновенная Тибетский Таджикский Туркестанский Озерная Зеленая Сложноцветные Полынь Миндаль Миндаль Лук Лук Лух Сныть Адонис Клен Клен

Суворова стебельчатый Розенбаха

туркестанский Регеля

Баранова

таджиков

большеголовый туркестанский

жаба бальджуанская буроусая лягушка

Вавилова бухарский

Павловского Бей бражник

карминоносный голец богомол

голец

, - голубянка

Биенко

анзур

храмуля сомик маринка

CEU eTD Collection Hordeum spontaneum Hordeum bulbosum Ficus carica Ficus afghanistanica Festuca alaica Ferula sp. Fabaceae Exochorda albertii Eremurus roseolus Eremurus comosus Eremurus aitchisonii Ephedra equisetina Elytrigia trichophora Draba altaica Diospyros lotus Datura stramonium Dactylis glomerata Cynodon dactylon Crocus korolkovii Crataegus darvasica Cousinia sp. Colutea hybrida Clematis orientalis Cichorium intybus Chesneya tadzhikistana Cercis griffithii Carex sp. Bunium persicum Betula tianschanica Berberis sp. Astragalus sp. Wild barley Bulbous barley Common fig Afghan fig Fescue Ferula Legume Albert’s exochorda Rose-tinted desert-candle Comose desert-candle Echison’s desert-candle Bluestem jointfir Couch grass Whitlow-grass Caucasian persimmon Dature Cocksfoot Scutch grass Korolkov’s crocus Darvaz hawthorn Cousinia Hybrid senna Chinese clematis Chicory Tajik chesneya Griffit’s redbud Sedge Black cumin Tien-Shan birch Barberry Milk-vetch 143

Ячмень Ячмень Инжир Инжир Типчак Ферула Бобовые Экзохорда Ширяш Ширяш Ширяш Эфедра Пырей Крупка Хурма Дурман Ежа Пальчатка Шафран Боярышник Кузинья Пузырник Ломонос Цикорий Чезнея Багрянник Осока Буниум Береза Барбарис Астрагал

сборная

кавказская

тяньшанская

волосоносный

обыкновенный афганистанский

таджикская дикий луковичный обыкновенный персидский

хвощевая розоватый хохлатый Эчисона

Королькова восточный обыкновенный

гибридный Альберта Гриффита

дарвазский

CEU eTD Collection Punica granatum Prunus darvasica Primula kaufmanniana Primula baldshuanica Prangos pabularia Potentilla sp. Polygonum sp. Poaceae Poa sp. Poa bulbosa Poa alpina Plantago major Pistacia vera Pipthaterum pamiroalaicum Phlomis bucharica Petilium eduardii Oxytropis sp. Ostrowskia magnifica Origanum tytthanthum Melandrium apetalum Malus sieversii Ligularia thomsonii Keyserlingia mollis Juno nicolai Juniperus seravschanica Juglans regia Iris sogdiana Iris darvasica Impatiens parviflora Impatiens nevskii Hypericum scabrum Bulbous bluegrass Small-flowered touch-me-not Common pomegranate Darvaz cherry-plum Kaufman’s primrose Baljuan primrose Hay plant,yugan Silverweed Knotweed True grasses Meadow-grass Alpine meadowgrass Common plantain Pistachio Pamir-Alai ricegrass Jerusalem sage Eduard’s fritillary Oxytrope Magnificent ostrowskia Small-flowered origanum Purple bladdercampion Siver’s apple Thomson’s leopardplant Keyserlingia Nikolai’s junos Zeravshan juniper Walnut Sogdian iris Darvaz iris Nevski’s touch-me-not John's-wort 144

Мятлик Недотрога Гранат Алыча Первоцвет Первоцвет Юган Лапчатка Горец Злаковые Мятлик Мятлик Подорожник Фисташка Рисовидка Фломис Петилиум Остролодочник Островския Душица Дрема Яблоня Бузульник Кейзерлингия Юнона Арча Орех Ирис Ирис Недотрога Зверобой

зеравшанская грецкий согдийский дарвазский

дарвазская обыкновенный

Сиверса

Николая луковичный альпийский бухарский мелкоцветковая

шершавый

настоящая Эдуарда Томсона Памироалайская мелкоцветная Невского Кауфмана бальджуанский

величественная

большой

мягкая

CEU eTD Collection

Zizyphus jujuba Vitis vinifera Vicia tenuifolia Tulipa praestans Tulipa maximowiczii Thymus seravshanicus Thermopsis dolichocarpa Taraxacum sp. Swida darvasica Scutelaria gontscharovii Saussurea glacialis Salix sp. Rumex paulsenianus Rosaceae Rhus coriaria Rheum maximoviczii Ranunculus sp. Pyrus korshinskyi Pyrus cayon Pyrus bucharica Jujube Common grapevine Vetch Superior tulip Maximovich’s tulip Zeravshan thyme Bush pea Dandelion Darvaz swida Goncharov’s skullcap Snow lotus Willow tree Paulsen’s dock Rose family Tanner’s sumac Pieplant Buttercup Korzhinskyi pear Cayon pear Bukharian pear 145

Челон Виноград Вика Тюльпан Тюльпан Тимьян Термопсис Одуванчик Свидина Шлемник Горькуша Ива Щавель Розоцветные Сумах Ревень Лютик Груша Груша Груша

тонколистная

дубильный

Коржинского кайон бухарская Максимовича

зеравшанский Паульсена

дарвазская

превосходящий Максимовича

Гончарова

длинноплодный