A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfillment of the Degree of Master of Science Climate Change Impact on Biodiversity and its Implications for Protected Areas Management Case study of Dashtidjum Zakaznik, Tajikistan CEU eTD Collection Anastasiya IDRISOVA May, 2010 Budapest Erasmus Mundus Masters Course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management MESPOM This thesis is submitted in fulfillment of the Master of Science degree awarded as a result of successful completion of the Erasmus Mundus Masters course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management (MESPOM) jointly operated by the University of the Aegean (Greece), Central European University (Hungary), Lund University (Sweden) and the University of Manchester (United Kingdom). CEU eTD Collection Supported by the European Commission’s Erasmus Mundus Programme ii Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Idrisova, A. 2010. Climate change impact on biodiversity and its implications for protected areas management: Case study of Dashtidjum Zakaznik, Tajikistan. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection iii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. Anastasiya IDRISOVA CEU eTD Collection iv CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by: Anastasiya IDRISOVA for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: Climate change impact on biodiversity and its implications for protected areas management: Case study of Dashtidjum Zakaznik, Tajikistan Month and Year of Submission: May, 2010. Climate change is an unequivocal global problem that has many negative consequences and can become the dominant direct driver for the loss of biodiversity. Its impacts on species and ecosystems have already been observed worldwide and vary from species phenological changes, to shifts in their geographical distribution and to extinction. Species adaptive responses, in turn, pose various challenges for adequate management of protected areas that play a key role in biodiversity conservation, and require review of conservation goals and implementation of adaptation measures. This thesis focuses on Tajikistan as a mountainous country with unique biodiversity, and explores climate change impacts on the biodiversity of one of the most vulnerable reserves rich in biodiversity – Dashtidjum Zakaznik. The current and potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of the zakaznik have been analyzed following the DPSIR approach and based on up-to-date knowledge, experts’ assumptions and observations. An analysis of meteorological data has confirmed an increase of mean temperatures and anomalies in precipitation. The main factors of climate change impacts, as well as species vulnerability and adaptive responses, have been identified for the main taxa of flora and fauna, with a focus on rare and endangered species, and all represented ecosystems. A vulnerability assessment has shown potential population decline for the majority of species important for conservation, migration of some species northwards outside the area of the zakaznik, extinctions of some species and increases in population sizes for other species, mainly invasive species. An assessment of national policies and strategies has identified a number of prerequisites for the implementation of adaptation measures that may contribute to the mitigation of the climate change impacts on the biodiversity of Dashtidjum Zakaznik. They include expansion of the protected area, and establishment of buffer zones and migration corridors. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: climate change, biodiversity, protected areas, vulnerability assessment, adaptation measures, Tajikistan, Dashtidjum Zakaznik v Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to thank the MESPOM Consortium and its coordinator Dr. Aleh Cherp for the possibility to be the part of the greatest program ever. I also would like to express my gratitude to the CEU Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, in particular Prof. Ruben Mnatsakanian, for the continued support and overall guidance. I am sincerely thankful to my supervisor Prof. Brandon Anthony for the valuable advice, constructive feedback and support that has always inspired me and allowed me to complete this research. I am also grateful to Ms. Eszter Timar for her constant willingness to help, valuable consultations and assistance. This work would not be possible without the assistance of the highly qualified specialists who have found time in their busy schedules and provided valuable inputs to my research. I am especially grateful to Dr. Neimatullo Safarov for his continued support and trust. I also highly appreciate the assistance of Prof. Khurshed Karimov, Dr. Abdusattor Saidov, Ms. Valentina Asanova, Dr. Rakhmatullo Sattorov, Dr. Saidakhmad Dustov, Dr. Tolib Irgashev, Dr. Rustam Murodov, Dr. Nuriddin Muminov, Mr. Ivan Zagrebelnyi, Mr. Ivan Ustjan, and Dr. Tojiddin Nadjmidinov. Thank you for your contributions! I am grateful to all professors from CEU, IIIEE, the Aegean University and the University of Manchester not only for sharing their knowledge and experience, introducing exciting aspects of environment protection and helping to gain new skills and insights, but also for creating a warm and positive atmosphere during the study process. I am also very thankful to the wonderful ladies Irina, Kriszta and Gunilla for their constant help that has made our student life much easier. I am grateful to my friends and colleagues in Tajikistan who have greatly helped me with the thesis research and have been patient to my numerous calls and emails. Thank you Nailya, Khisrav, Dilovar and Olim! Thank you my dear classmates for sharing with me these wonderful two years. I will always remember our dinners, chats, walks, green drinks, and many other unforgettable moments! Thank you all and stay in touch! CEU eTD Collection Last, but not least, I am very grateful to my family. My dearest Mom and Dad, thank you very much for your love and support, and surely for the genes, which have really helped me to complete this program! My beloved Timur and Polina, thank you for your understanding and patience, and sorry for leaving you for two years. Thank you for your love and trust in me – you have been an enormous and precious support for me, as always. Thank you! vi Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND..........................................................................................................................................1 1.2 OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...........................................................................................4 1.3 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................5 1.4 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS.......................................................................................................................5 1.5 OUTLINE OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................................................6 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK...........................................................................................7 2.1 GLOBAL SCENE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY ................................................................7 2.1.1 Climate change pressures on biodiversity...............................................................................................8 2.1.2 Species responses to climate change........................................................................................................9 2.2 GLOBAL SCENE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROTECTED AREAS......................................................11 2.2.1 Overview of the impacts .....................................................................................................................11 2.2.2 Management responses.......................................................................................................................12 2.3 LOCAL SCENE: BIODIVERSITY AND PROTECTED AREAS IN TAJIKISTAN