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Automotive-200103-1Q20 Strategy (Kenanga)

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Automotive-200103-1Q20 Strategy (Kenanga) Sector Update 03 January 2020 Automotive NEUTRAL National Marques Overtaking on the Fast Lane ↔ By Wan Mustaqim Bin Wan Ab Aziz l [email protected] We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the AUTOMOTIVE sector. The MIER consumer sentiment index scored 84.0 points (-9.0ppt QoQ, -23.5ppt YoY) in 3QCY19 which is below the optimistic threshold (>100pts) due to normalisation of consumer confidence post-tax holiday and weak macroeconomic outlook. Reflecting this, we are seeing car sales trending in favour of value-for-money national marques, as evident from their 11MCY19 TIV market share of 57%. Non-national marques on the other hand, are focusing on higher-margin lower-volume models (catering to higher purchasing power consumers). Notable developments in Automotive industry in 2019/2020 include: (i) national marques surpassing non-national marques in terms of market share, (ii) Proton has surpassed Honda as no.2 trailing behind Perodua, (iii) increasing number of new model launches, (iv) better incentives under National Automotive Policy 2020 (tentatively on 1QCY20), and (v) another OPR rate cut by 25bps (to 2.75%) in 2020, which should have minimal positive impact on vehicles loans. No changes to our 2019 TIV target of 600,000 units (+0.2%), and we introduce 2020 TIV target of 612,000 units (+2%) matching MAA’s target factoring the extra boost from national marques (Proton and Perodua). Our sector top-pick is BAUTO (OP; TP: RM2.65) for its defensible niche SUV market and attractive, steady dividend yield of 7.3%. National marques affirming leading market position . As of 11MCY19, the national marques (57%) continued to stay above non-national marques (43%) in terms of market share, marking a year not seen since 2013, owing to the outstanding sales from Perodua, especially after the introduction of its all-new Perodua Myvi and supported by the all-new Perodua Aruz (27,389 units delivered). This was also boosted by a magnificent Proton sales growth (+51% YoY), after the introduction of its all-new Proton X70 (25,687 units delivered), and supported by fresh new face- lifted, improved technological variants of existing line-ups (Saga, Iriz, Persona, and Exora). Proton will be launching an all-new X70 CKD in 1QCY20, while in 2HCY20, an all-new X50 (based on Geely Binyue) and Proton/Geely Jiaji (MPV) are in the pipeline. On the other hand, Perodua plans on launching a 5-seater SUV, all-new Perodua D55L/Raize(CKD) in 2HCY20, indirectly competing against Proton X50. Notable changes include Honda targeting lower sales for 2019 at 95,000 units, versus 102,282 units sold in 2018, but it could be far off from its target, with 11MCY19 Honda sales of 78,183 units (-17% YoY), with lower market share of 14%, tailgating behind Proton (market share at 16%). Moving forward, we expect a stronger growth for national marques, hence , we upgrade DRBHCOM to OP from MP with unchanged SoP-derived TP of RM2.60. Industry sales are on track to meet our targeted 2019 TIV target at 600,000 units (+0.2%) and envisaged 2020 target at 612,000 (+2%), in line with Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA). We believe the weak macroeconomic condition, and possible delays in new car launches given the backlog of pricing approvals (3-5 months) will be offset by exciting new launches, especially by the non-nationals and better incentives program under NAP 2020 (tentatively to be unveiled on 1QCY20). MITI has decided to increase the frequency of the monthly meetings held by the Automotive Business Development Committee (ABDC), chaired by MITI, from once to twice a month to speed up the vehicle pricing approval process. On the other hand, MITI has established a trade and advisory council (TIAC), which will discuss issues on subjects ranging from foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic direct investment (DDI) to the National Automotive Policy (NAP) in its upcoming meetings (with a minimum of four meetings/year). National marques chalking up better sales volume, while non-nationals falling on dearth of all-new launches. For 3QCY19 reporting season, only 1 out of the 6 coverage stocks (MBMR) performed above expectation, 1 stock (TCHONG) came below expectation with remainders (BAUTO, DRBHCOM, SIME, and UMW) within expectation. Overall, car sales were lower as expected on absence of festivities and shorter working period. Perodua-linked companies (UMW, MBMR), recorded higher associates’ contribution on higher margin sales of all-new Perodua Myvi and Aruz, despite lower QoQ sales, supported by better core segments. Both BAUTO and TCHONG recorded the lowest unit sales growth compared to other automakers due to dearth of all- new models to drive sales, but TCHONG’s performance was worse than expected. SIME saw stronger Industrials and an unexpected push from Automotive segment. DRBHCOM recorded dismal profit compared to the previous quarter especially from slower Proton X70 sales (-15% QoQ), but overall performance was within expectation. Looking forward to 4QCY19/2020, vehicles sales volume for 4QCY19 is expected to be stronger than 3QCY19 and we also project the year to end with at least 600,000 units, driven by the continuation of aggressive year-end promotional campaign especially by players which have their financial year ending 31 st December. YTD new launches include Perodua ARUZ, the face- lifted Honda HR-V (includes Hybrid), face-lifted Proton Saga, IRIZ and Persona, Toyota Vios, Toyota Yaris, Toyota Rush, T32 Nissan X-Trail facelift, 2019 Proton Exora RC, Mazda 3 (Sedan & Hatchback), face-lifted Perodua Axia, all-new A90 Toyota Supra (CBU), face-lifted Mazda CX-5 (CKD, 22 nd October), and all-new Mazda CX-8 (CKD, 13 th November). Upcoming new launches include the, face-lifted Honda Accord and Civic, Mazda CX-30 (CBU, 1QCY20), Proton X70 (CKD, 1QCY20), Proton X50 (CKD, 2HCY20), Perodua D55L/Raizen (2HCY20), all-new Honda City 1.0 Turbo (2020), all-new Nissan Almera 1.0 turbo (2020). There are also streams of unannounced all-new launchings pending pricing approvals and better incentives program under NAP 2020. PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 6 Automotive Sector Update 03 January 2020 SUV driving the hype into 2020 . For segmental sales, SUV segment continued to gain popularity, led by the introduction of Proton SUV X70 (launched on 12 th December 2018), Proton X70 face-lifted CKD on 1QCY20, all-new Perodua SUV ARUZ (launched 15 th January 2019), all-new Toyota C-HR (1Q18), Toyota Rush (End-February 2019), face-lifted Mazda CX-5 (22 nd October), all-new Mazda CX-8 (CKD, 13 th November), all-new Mazda CX-30 CBU (1QCY20), face-lifted Mazda CX-3 (1QCY20), all-new Proton X50 (2HCY20), and all-new Perodua D55L/Raize(CKD). Note that, the market share of 4WD/SUV segment had increased from 13% in 2018 to 20% as of 11M2019 due to increasing popularity of these vehicles. This will be supported by the value-for-money segment which will be focusing on the affordable variants led by Perodua (Axia, Myvi, Bezza, and Aruz), followed by Honda (with its entry-level Hybrid segment, Jazz and City Sport Hybrid, as well as entry-level SUV segment, the BR- V). Proton has surpassed Honda at number 2 in terms of market share with its popular Proton X70 (25,687 units delivered), and further supported by face-lifted Proton Saga, Iriz, and Persona. Normalisation in Consumer Sentiment Index. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s (MIER) posted 84.0 points (- 9.0ppt QoQ, -23.5ppt YoY) for its 3QCY19 Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). We believe the QoQ drop is largely driven by normalisation of consumer confidence after: (i) festive purchases in conjunction with the Eid celebration in 2QCY19, and (ii) consumer holding back for a better promotion in 4QCY19 year-end sales. These however, was cushioned by: (i) stable labour markets, and (ii) resilient consumers demand, as evidenced by the minimal to nil or negative spillover from the implementaion of SST and sugar tax. Note that, last year was seen as stronger base due to zero-rated tax holiday. Moving forward, we cautiously anticipate consumer sentiment to remain resilient, although a slight normalisation would not come as a surprise as the prolonged weakness in our domestic currency and the geopolitical tensions may further dampen confidence. BAUTO (OP; TP: RM2.65) is our sector top pick : We like the stock for its: (i) expected earnings recovery from the stream of all-new models, especially its popular, face-lifted/turbo Mazda CX-5, (ii) superior margins which is above industry peers (average profit margin of c.9% vs. peers of c.2%), and (iii) steady dividend yield of 7.3%. BAUTO has launched its popular face-lifted and turbo variants of CX-5 (CKD, 22 nd October), and all-new CX-8 (CKD, 13 th November). BAUTO is also looking to bring in the all- new CX-30 (CBU from Thailand) and face-lifted CX-3 (CBU) by 1HCY20. Our TP is based on 13x CY20E EPS (at -0.5SD of its 3-year Fwd. historical PER). TIV Market Share Movement Market Position Marques 11M19 11M18 Sales Comment Share 1st Perodua 40% 38% ▲ 6% Driven by the all-new Perodua Myvi, and the all-new Perodua Aruz. Higher delivery of the all-new Proton X70, and also supported by the 2nd Proton 16% 11% ▲ 51% existing face-lifted line-ups. Consumers held back purchases, expecting new models (tentatively the 3rd Honda 14% 17% ▼ -17% face-lifted Honda Civic, delayed due to pricing approval issues) Stronger base during the tax holiday last year, but cushioned by its best- 4th Toyota 11% 11% ◄► -1% selling all-new Toyota Vios Yaris, and Hilux.
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