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Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion April 24 to May 22, 2013 Survey Methodology

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Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion April 24 to May 22, 2013 Survey Methodology Survey of South Sudan Public Opinion April 24 to May 22, 2013 Survey Methodology • The International Republican Institute (IRI) undertook a public opinion poll in all 10 states of South Sudan. Training of the poll researchers was performed by Opinion Research Business (ORB), an international opinion research firm. Fieldwork management, analysis, supervision and execution were done by IRI under critical guidance of ORB. • Data was collected via face-to-face interviews from April 24 – May 22, 2013. • The population studied was adults ages 18 and older. A representative random sample was designed based on the latest population estimates reported in the 2010 Statistical Yearbook for South Sudan. • The survey employed probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling methodology. The population of South Sudan was stratified first at the region level and then by the state level. Within each state, IRI and ORB then selected counties. This was done by creating a multi-stage probability sample. Enumeration areas within each county were selected using PPS; households within each enumeration area were then identified using a random walk method, the days code and a skip pattern; respondents were randomly chosen within households using a Kish grid. Every other interview was conducted with a female to try to achieve 50 percent gender parity. • The questionnaire was translated into Bari, Classical Arabic, Dinka, English, Juba Arabic and Nuer (portions of the questionnaire were orally translated into other languages by the interviewer). 2 Survey Methodology • The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percent. The margin of error for subsets (i.e. age/education/tribes/ etc.) is significantly higher and should be treated as indicative only. • This report contains South Sudan’s data from IRI's September 2011 poll and IRI’s Equatoria May/June 2012 poll to provide comparison. The margin of error for the September 2011 and May/June 2012 data is +/- 2.1 percent and +/- 2.5 percent, respectively, unless otherwise stated. • The overall response rate (defined as the number of successful interviews divided by eligible houses visited) is 74 percent. To complete 2,533 interviews, 3,422 households were contacted. • Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all percentages add up to 100. Unless otherwise stated, all questions n=2,533. Because the survey met key demographic indicators (county/state) and quotas (gender), no weighting was necessary during data analysis. • The poll was conducted with funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development. • The Institute acknowledges the helpful support of the South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics and the Government of the Republic of South Sudan during the process of this survey. The Institute also acknowledges the contributions from the following individuals throughout this project: Alfred Lokuji, University of Juba; Augustino Ting, The Sudd Institute; Leben Nelson Moro, University of Juba; Merekaje Lorna, South Sudan Democratic Engagement Monitoring and Observation Project; Samson Wasara, University of Juba; Stephen Omiri, Eye Radio Media Group; and Zahra Said, South Sudan Network for Democracy and Elections. 3 Survey Methodology Region/State Sample Size Percent Margin of Error Equatoria 782 31% 3.5 Central Equatoria 335 13% 5.4 Eastern Equatoria 272 11% 5.9 Western Equatoria 175 7% 7.4 Upper Nile 888 35% 3.3 Jonglei 408 16% 4.9 Unity 176 7% 7.4 Upper Nile 304 12% 5.6 Bahr el Ghazal 863 34% 3.5 Lakes 224 9% 6.6 Northern Bahr el Ghazal 224 9% 6.6 Warrap 304 12% 5.6 Western Bahr el Ghazal 111 4% 9.3 TOTAL 2,533 100% 1.9 4 General Environment 5 Do you feel that South Sudan is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? National By region 100% Right Wrong Region Year 90% direction direction 80% 42% 52% Equatoria May-13 44% 54% 70% 60% May-12 49% 50% Sept-11 54% 45% 50% Change -10% 40% Upper Nile May-13 34% 65% 30% 56% Sept-11 46% 52% 47% 20% Change -12% 10% Bahr el Ghazal May-13 64% 35% 0% Sept-11 73% 26% Sept 2011 May 2013 Right direction Wrong direction Change -9% 6 Why do you say that South Sudan is heading in the right direction? Open-ended, top 10 responses, n=1,201 65% 6% 4% Independence / separation / freedom Education 4% Management of the economy 3% Infrastructure / roads Communications 3% Crime and security Transportation 2% Water supply 2% Democracy / political rights Health 2% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 7 Why do you say that South Sudan is heading in the wrong direction? Open-ended, top 10 responses, n=1,310 Crime and security 15% Food shortage / famine 14% 12% Poverty / destitution 9% Infrastructure / roads 6% Health 5% Unemployment 5% Water supply 5% Corruption 5% 4% Political instability / political divisions / ethnic tensions Management of the economy 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 8 Would you say your life today is better, worse or about the same as it was before Independence? National By region 70% 70% 60% 60% 12% Equatoria 10% 60% 17% 5% 50%50% 40%40% 52% Bahr el Ghazal 15% 49% 22% 8% 30%30% 52% 11% 20%20% 20% Upper Nile 10% 46% 20% 18% 10%10% 20% 12% 11% 0%0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Much better Better Worse Much worse 9 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country? Open-ended, top 10 responses Crime and security 11% 8% Food shortage / famine 11% 9% Poverty / destitution 8% 5% Political instability / political divisions / ethnic 8% tensions 5% Infrastructure / roads 7% 8% First response Education 6% 7% Second response Health 6% 9% Corruption 5% 5% Water supply 5% 7% Unemployment 4% 3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 10 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country? Open-ended, top 10 responses, tracked from 2011 Crime and security 11% 11% Food shortage / famine 10% 11% Poverty / destitution 2% 8% Political instability / political divisions / ethnic 6% tensions 7% Infrastructure / roads 7% 7% Sept 2011 Education 9% 6% May 2013 Health 11% 6% Corruption 4% 5% Water supply 5% 4% Unemployment 5% 4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 11 What do you think is the biggest issue or concern that most impacts your daily life or family? Open-Ended, top 10 responses Food shortage / famine 28% 13% Poverty / destitution 11% 8% Sickness / disease 7% 13% Unemployment 7% 6% Health 7% 9% First response Water supply 6% 8% Second response Education 6% 8% Crime and security 4% 4% Farming / agriculture 3% 3% Wages / incomes / salaries 3% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 12 What do you think is the next biggest issue or concern that most impacts your daily life or family? Open-ended, top 10 responses, tracked from 2011 Food shortage / famine 19% 28% Poverty / destitution 7% 11% Sickness / disease 5% 7% Unemployment 10% 7% Health 11% 7% Sept 2011 Water supply 4% 6% May 2013 Education 9% 6% Crime and security 5% 4% Farming / agriculture 3% 3% Wages / incomes / salaries 4% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 13 For each of the following issues, do you think the situation has gotten better, worse or stayed the same over the past year? Security (war, tribal conflict, etc.) 13% 36% 12% 18% 20% Freedom of speech and expression 9% 33% 17% 16% 16% Much better Better Relations with Sudan (Khartoum) 3% 27% 19% 25% 15% Same Worse Much worse Delivery of basic services 3% 19% 21% 28% 28% Government corruption 1% 10% 19% 29% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14 Economy 15 Do you feel that the economy of South Sudan is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? National By region 80% 76% 70% 70% Bahr el Ghazal 27% 60% 50% 75% 40% Equatoria 21% 30% 20% 21% 82% Upper Nile 10% 16% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Right direction Wrong direction 16 Why do you say that the economy of South Sudan is heading in the right/wrong direction? Top nine responses Right direction (n=541) Wrong direction (n=1,917) Un- No employment, Infrastructure, development, 3% Employment, 4% 4% 4% Oil Security, shutdown, 5% 6% Stability, independence, Security, 6% Inflation, 30% Development, peace, 29% 8% Trade, availability of Inflation, 10% goods, 7% Infrastructure, 10% Trade, Oil, 10% availability of Poverty, 20% goods 20% Resource Resource management, management 15% 10% 17 Thinking about your local market, do Thinking about your local market, do you think there will be…six months you think that goods will be…six from now? months from now? 70% 80% 60% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 71% 30% 60% 30% 20% 20% 28% 10% 10% 21% 7% 5% 0% 0% More expensive Less expensive Less goods More goods About the same About the same price 18 Thinking about the amount of money your Do you think your household will have family spends per month, please tell me more income, less income or about the which of the following phrases best suites same amount of income six months from your household situation? now? 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 48% 50% 40% 29% 30% 20% 13% 10% 5% 13% 1% 0.4% 0% Unable to meet basic needs Able to meet basic needs Able to meet basic needs with some non-essential goods 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Able to purchase most non-essential goods Less income About the same More income Plenty of disposable money 19 Did you support the national government’s Do you think the shutdown had a decision to stop oil production in January significant effect on your life? 2012? 82% 16% 44% Yes 53% No 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No Do you think your life will improve when oil By region production resumes? 60% 50% 54% 53% 51% 40% 46% 42% 43% 30% Yes 90% 7% 20% No 10% 0% Equatoria Bahr el Ghazal Upper Nile 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20 Service Delivery 21 Various development projects or programs are being implemented in different areas of the country.
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