NICHOLAS HALL’S NEW PARADIGMS 2019 Over the Horizon

A Signature Report personally written by Nicholas Hall

Nicholas Hall Executive Chairman & Creative Solutions Director Nicholas Hall Group of Companies

Nicholas is the founder and team leader of the Nicholas Hall Group of Companies, an elite consulting, business intelligence, events and executive recruitment & training company primarily serving the OTC healthcare industry. After a career in marketing and general management with Procter & Gamble, Vicks and GD Searle, Nicholas has managed the Group’s multiple businesses around the globe, which has among its clients many blue chip OTC companies, as well as some of the leading local laboratories in Europe, Asia and the Americas. He has more than four decades of experience in the healthcare industry and has moderated over 500 OTC conferences and seminars in 58 countries. • Report purchases include access to a webinar of key findings presented by Nicholas Hall personally. • Additional customised presentation via webinar / in-house workshop conducted by Nicholas Hall from £10,000. Enquiries: [email protected] REPORT COVERAGE OVER THE HORIZON

1. Looking over the Horizon 5. Engaging with the Consumer 6. How to Innovate (at last!) • 15 Infinity Zones • Demographics • Strepsils / Strefen – carving a • Why CHC isn’t innovating • Which new entries • Forecasts for the mainstream retail sector niche as severe sore throat specialist are the game-changers? • Innovation zones: • Best Case • With less time, convenience is key for consumers delivery, devices, diagnostics • Innovation zones: • Worst Case • A rapidly growing middle class new delivery systems • Innovation zones: medical • Model 1 (DtC) vs 2 (OTx) • The Ageing Consumer • Women vs Men devices for treatment, relief or prevention • Is there a gender gap? • What about smaller segments? • Innovation zones: • Defining the women’s CHC market diagnostics & monitoring • Thorne Research – • Unmet needs: opportunities for successful switch premium VMS line moving into personalised nutrition

2. CHC Market – Situation Report • 2014-18 (and a little further back) • What happened in 2018 • North America • Europe 7. Regulation • Japan • Australasia • The overall trend to deregulation and reregulation • Tighter regulation: aiming for improved safety 3. Emerging Markets • Addictive, dangerous and potentially fatal misuse • Overview • Children’s medicines – going, going, gone, honey? • BRICITS • Supplements – regulated or not? • 2nd tier • Medical devices – EU shows way to better regulation • The new 3rd tier 8. Rx-to-OTC Switch 4. Healthcare Trends • Why switch? • Switch models • USA vs ROW: Can switch be profitable only in USA? • Upturn in some illnesses and conditions • EU’s Centralised Procedure • Allergy (and allergy-associated asthma) • Building female franchises • Eve - dynamic • Recent switches: what went right / what went • Obesity and diabetes • Autism Spectrum Disorders ibuprofen brand with simple selling point wrong? • Voltaren – leading topical analgesic • Attention Deficit / Hyperactivity Disorder • What about women’s heart health? thanks to strong identity and NPD • Medical provision • How governments aim to • FemTech potential • What about Men? • What’s coming down the pipeline? reduce the healthcare “burden” • Big Pharma: • Defining the men’s CHC market • Unmet needs: opportunities for successful switch and geographic Does it have a future in Consumer Healthcare NICHOLAS HALL’S • Why are pharma players exiting consumer healthcare? expansion • Neutrogena – intelligent expansion via light masks and devices • Prevention & Lifestyle NEW PARADIGMS 2019 Over The Horizon REPORT COVERAGE OVER THE HORIZON

9. Cannabis 11. Diabesity 12. Health through Digestion • Regulatory • Other notable markets • Obesity • Probiotics • Who are the cannabis industry leaders? • The market for weight loss drugs continues to be flat • Probiotics market today (1): The markets, players and brands • OTC weight loss launches 2017-19 • Probiotics market today (2): The focus is on gut health • Fat binders, carb blockers & appetite suppressants • OMNi-BiOTiC – diverse European probiotics range • Meal replacements regaining prominence • Food intolerance • Lactose intolerance • Probiotics for weight loss • Other intolerances • Nutraceuticals • Limited evidence for many weight loss supplements • Rising investment in nutraceuticals & nutritionals • Foods making health claims in Japan • Nutraceuticals & nutritionals expanding fast in Asia • CHC marketers must contend with food players in this sphere

13. Go Green • Herbal & natural products • “Pure” single-ingredient H&N supplements • Natural supplements for lifestyle • Burt’s Bees – beeswax beauty brand boosted by natural heritage • Natural topical analgesics

10. Sexual Health • Contraception • Oral contraceptives • Natural cough remedies • Emergency contraception • Condoms • Vaginal rings • Zarbee’s – honey-based • Spermicides • Diaphragms • Male contraceptive • Weight loss apps, trackers & wearables cough remedy successfully diversified pills and gels • Prenatal VMS • Diabetes • Innovation • Immunity • Pregnancy tests • Fertility lubricants • FemTech • OTC market for diabetes care • Myriad other supplements for immunity • Fertility and birth control apps • Diabetes innovation • Detox • Hangover remedies • Ovulation and fertility kits & monitors • VMS options for diabetes have potential • Leading and latest devices • Erectile dysfunction • Meal replacements and emerging ingredients NICHOLAS HALL’S • Generic competition increasing • Eye care for diabetics NEW PARADIGMS 2019 Over The Horizon REPORT COVERAGE OVER THE HORIZON

14. Sleep, Mood & Stress 15. Cosmeceuticals 17. The Digital Revolution • Sleep disorders • Overview • OTCs & supplements • Fortified cosmetics • Aesthetic treatments • GSK’s digital / e-Commerce strategy • Recent developments • ZzzQuil – US • Retinoids • Cannabis-infused skincare • Consumer influences (and influencers) diphenhydramine leader expands into herbal & • Cosmeceutical supplements / beauty nutraceuticals • The accelerating trend to greening • Digital advertising naturals • Switch • Mental health, mood & stress • Successful digital campaigns • Sensodyne – “Best in Class” Amazon Case Study • Successful apps • e-Commerce • Olly – Unilever acquires most dynamic brand in US VMS market • Blueberry-Eye – Successful direct sales eye health brand • Profiles of leading OTC brands on Amazon (USA) • Analysis of brands on Amazon across key categories • e-Commerce share of key brand sales (USA) • Advil – “Best in Class” Amazon Case Study • Tylenol – “Best in Class” Amazon Case Study • Vicks – “Best in Class” Amazon Case Study 16. Distribution • Leading OTC brands (USA) – Online purchasing • Why Pharmacy Point-of-Care? guidance • Alibaba Group • WebMD • Treatments that benefit from PPoC • The US in-store clinics model • And elsewhere... • GSL • Self-selection in France, Italy & other countries 18. Competition – Winners, Survivors & Losers • Dealing with powerful chains – the Five Squeezes • Why are the MNCs underperforming? • Private label • Retail Category Management – bringing • Key regional / local marketers • Top 20 players order out of retail chaos • GlaxoSmithKline • J&J • Sanofi • Bayer • Pfizer • Retail Category Management – the facts • RB • P&G • Taisho • Takeda • Novartis • Shopper insights • Category Captains • China Resources 999 • Otsuka • Teva • Mondelez • Is RCM only for Model 1 distribution? • The Nature’s Bounty Co • Prestige Consumer • The next global epidemic • Network / Multi-Level Marketing • Amway Healthcare • Mylan • Bausch Health • Products for mental health, mood & stress • Appendix 1: Key pharmacy chains • Abbott • Perrigo • Innovations • Appendix 2: Chain pharmacies by region PLUS • Clorox • Nestlé • Unilever • CBD – the hottest new medicine in mental health (Americas, Europe, Asia) • Probiotics: the gastrointestinal tract is the “second brain” • Appendix 3: Pharmacy chains / groups • Appendix 4: Pharmacy chains in China NICHOLAS HALL’S • Appendix 5: Pharmacy buying groups and franchises NEW PARADIGMS 2019 • Appendix 6: Suitcase trade (daigou) in China Over The Horizon REPORT COVERAGE OVER THE HORIZON

19. M&A • GSK-Pfizer j-v INFINITY ZONES • Are OTC acquisitions always a sideshow of Big Pharma? 1. Prevention • Multiples 2. Cannabis • Does M&A work? 3. Sexual Health 4. Obesity 5. Diabetes 6. Probiotics 7. Food Intolerance 8. Go Green / Natural & Organic Products 9. Sleep, Stress & Mood 10. Women’s Health 11. MedTech 12. Diagnostics 20. Managing Brands for Long-term Profit Growth 13. Pharmacy Point-of-Care • What makes a brand? • Building brand values, strengthening consumer loyalty 14. e-Commerce • Is the OTC industry already generic? 15. Emerging Markets • Adding value, raising prices • Umbrella branding and line extensions – fewer SKUs, more focus • Bepanthen / Bepanthol – key franchise in Bayer’s CHC portfolio • Is Mucinex over-extended? • OTC profitability • Building critical mass on a global scale

Pricing List price All global licence purchases grant complimentary access to a webinar of Global Licence GBP£20,000 Enquiries: [email protected] key findings presented by Nicholas Hall Site Licence GBP£16,000 Website: www.NicholasHall.com personally. * Individual chapters can be purchased, please contact us to discuss your customised quotation. Nicholas Hall Group of Companies offers the world’s most complete consumer healthcare marketing & business solutions Dedicated to benchmarking consumer healthcare markets and providing business solutions, we are specialists in consumer healthcare, with an international network of contacts, offering data & analysis, strategic advice and competitive intelligence on a global, regional or local basis. Latest Nicholas Hall Reports:

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