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Preparing for Upheaval in North Korea: Assuming North Korean Regime Collapse

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Preparing for Upheaval in North Korea: Assuming North Korean Regime Collapse View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2013-12 Preparing for upheaval in North Korea: assuming North Korean regime collapse Kim, Kwonwoo Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/38963 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS PREPARING FOR UPHEAVAL IN NORTH KOREA: ASSUMING NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE by Kwonwoo Kim December 2013 Thesis Advisor: Wade Huntley Second Reader: Robert Weiner Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2013 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS PREPARING FOR UPHEAVAL IN NORTH KOREA: ASSUMING NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE 6. AUTHOR(S) KWONWOO KIM 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this thesis attempts to predict the North Korean people’s possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regime’s control system and recent changes. This thesis also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case. 14. SUBJECT TERMS DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration), Stabilization 15. NUMBER OF Operation, Regime collapse, Songbun, Juche PAGES 87 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited PREPARING FOR UPHEAVAL IN NORTH KOREA: ASSUMING NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE Kwonwoo Kim Captain, The Republic of Korea Army B.A., Korea Military Academy, 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2013 Author: Kwonwoo Kim Approved by: Wade Huntley Thesis Advisor Robert Weiner Second Reader Mohammed M. Hafez, Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this thesis attempts to predict the North Korean people’s possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regime’s control system and recent changes. This thesis also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................1 C. PROBLEM AND HYPHOTHESIS................................................................2 D. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................4 1. Conceptualizing DDR ..........................................................................4 2. Lessons Learned ...................................................................................7 3. Applicability to North Korea ..............................................................9 E. METHODS AND SOURCES .......................................................................10 F. THESIS OVERVIEW ...................................................................................11 II. NORTH KOREAN ATTITUDE TOWARD UPHEAVAL ...................................13 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................13 B. INSIDE NORTH KOREA ............................................................................14 1. Foundation of the Social Control System ........................................15 a. Recent Changes in the Social Control System .......................18 2. Songbun System .................................................................................20 a. Recent Changes in the Songbun System ................................21 3. Juche Ideology ....................................................................................22 a. Recent Changes in Ideology ...................................................24 4. A Garrison State ................................................................................25 a. The Status of The Korean People’s Army ..............................25 b. Capabilities ..............................................................................27 c. Reserve Forces ........................................................................28 5. Implications ........................................................................................29 C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................32 III. NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE ............................................................35 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................35 B. REGIME COLLAPSE ..................................................................................36 1. Defining the Status of Regime Collapse ...........................................36 2. Scenarios and Assumptions ...............................................................37 a. Critical Uncertainties ..............................................................37 b. First Scenario ..........................................................................40 c. Second Scenario ......................................................................44 d. Third Scenario.........................................................................46 e. Fourth Scenario ......................................................................48 3. Common Traits in All Scenarios ......................................................50 C. CONCLUSION
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