New Leaders, Old Dangers: What North Korean Succession Means for the U.S. Bruce Klingner

No. 2397 April 7, 2010 New Leaders, Old Dangers: What North Korean Succession Means for the U.S. Bruce Klingner Abstract: North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il’s faltering health has raised concerns about regime stability. Succes- sion rumors have been swirling for years, with Kim’s third Talking Points son, Jong-eun, currently rumored to be Kim’s favored • The planned North Korean leadership suc- choice. But regardless of whether leadership stays in the cession from the ailing Kim Jong-il to his third family or is wrested away by a challenger, a new North son, Jong-eun, may fail, raising the potential Korean leader is likely to keep in place the same belligerent for regime instability. Recent social unrest in policies—toward South Korea, toward China and Japan, North Korea reflects a greater public willing- and toward the U.S. If succession does not go smoothly, and ness to rebel against the dictatorship. if the North Korean regime were to collapse, the ensuing • A failed succession could result in regime col- chaos would require immediate action by the U.S. and its lapse, leading to North Korea’s loss of control Asian allies to restore stability, provide humanitarian relief, of its nuclear weapons, greater risk of rogue and search for and prevent the distribution of WMDs. elements selling WMDs to rogue governments and terrorist groups, fighting among competing factions, economic turmoil, and humanitarian disaster. International attention has been focused on North • Under such circumstances, China or South Korea’s nuclear weapons program, which endangers Korea might feel compelled to send troops U.S. national interests, the safety of critical U.S. allies into North Korea to stabilize the country, rais- Japan and South Korea, and peace and stability in ing the potential for miscalculation and Asia. Washington must continue to use a combina- armed confrontation. tion of diplomatic pressure and highly conditional • Regardless of who the next North Korean negotiations to induce Pyongyang to abide by its leader is, he is likely to maintain the regime’s denuclearization pledges, as well as to prevent nuclear belligerent policies toward the U.S., South proliferation. Korea, and Japan. Yet there is another North Korean threat for which Washington must prepare: instability in the country’s leadership. The planned succession from the ailing Kim Jong-il to his third son faces many challenges and This paper, in its entirety, can be found at: http://report.heritage.org/bg2397 may not be successful. Because the young son lacks Produced by the Asian Studies Center the gravitas of his father, there is the potential for a Published by The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002–4999 (202) 546-4400 • heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. No. 2397 April 7, 2010 power struggle among challengers within the senior Kim’s sudden death or incapacitation could trig- party and military leadership. ger events culminating in a cataclysmic security The issue of succession is especially worrisome challenge for the United States, South Korea, and in view of recent indications that deteriorating Japan. The potential for turmoil in a nation with economic conditions, exacerbated by the tighten- nuclear weapons must therefore be a top priority for ing noose of international sanctions, and rising the U.S. and its allies. The Obama Administration civil unrest in response to draconian attacks should develop military, political, and economic against free-market activity could create a tinder- contingency plans for a wide range of scenarios. The box of instability. U.S. should integrate its plans with those of South Korea and Japan and initiate discussions with China If the situation became so dire as to bring about and Russia. Discussions among scholars from these the collapse of the regime, it could lead to North countries (“track two” dialogues) could be used to Korea’s loss of control over its nuclear weapons, augment government efforts. greater risk of rogue elements selling weapons of mass destruction to other rogue governments and Kim Jong-il’s Ill Health terrorist groups, fighting among competing fac- In August 2008, Kim Jong-il suffered one or two tions, economic turmoil, and humanitarian disaster. strokes, leading to his absence from public view for Under such circumstances, China or South Korea months. Later in 2008, the North Korean govern- might feel compelled to send troops into North ment released photos of Kim that purportedly Korea to stabilize the country, raising the potential showed him to be in good health, but these pictures for miscalculation and armed confrontation. were subsequently exposed as doctored. Kim even- Moreover, even a smooth leadership transition tually recovered but appears frail and emaciated. would put diplomatic efforts to induce North Korea Initial judgments about Kim’s health have been to abandon its nuclear weapons on hold. It is reassessed as a result of Kim’s August 2009 meet- unlikely that Pyongyang would trade away its ings with former President Bill Clinton and Hyun- nuclear weapons when it feels weakened by leader- dai Chairwoman Hyun Jung-eun, during which ship transition. the North Korean leader was described as robust _________________________________________ and in full control of his faculties, but there are The North Korean regime has shown remarkable continuing concerns about Kim’s health, and a resilience over the past 15 years. However, there sudden collapse is possible at any time. Life is now a growing sense that a combination of expectancy for stroke victims is low, particularly stresses is pushing Pyongyang closer to the for someone like Kim, who has resumed smoking tipping point. and drinking. ____________________________________________ Kim Jong-il continues to suffer from chronic health problems, including diabetes, kidney and The North Korean regime has shown remarkable heart problems, and high blood pressure. He resilience over the past 15 years, belying repeated reportedly receives regular dialysis, particularly predictions of its imminent demise. However, there before meetings with foreign leaders, so that he is now a growing sense that a combination of can appear to be in good health.1 In December stresses is pushing Pyongyang closer to the tipping 2009, there were reports that Kim remained point. Like storm clouds on the horizon, the impli- weak and could work only every other day.2 cations of leadership transition are significant and Contrary to rumors, he likely does not have pan- unpredictable. creatic cancer. 1. “Kim Jong-il Undergoing Regular Kidney Dialysis,” The Chosun Ilbo, February 1, 2010. 2. “Report: NKorean Leader Kim’s Health Worsens,” Associated Press, December 16, 2009, at http://www2.wnct.com/nct/news/ world/article/report_nkorean_leader_kims_health_worsens/85789 (March 30, 2010). page 2 No. 2397 April 7, 2010 Third Time’s the Charm? being glorified, as had occurred with Kim Jong-il’s It has long been expected that Kim Jong-il would mother during his own accession to power. implement a hereditary succession plan as his own In 2005, European policymakers were advised to father had done. The North Korean constitution has prepare contingency plans for “sudden change” in no formal provisions for leadership succession. North Korea. The Japanese Public Security Intelli- _________________________________________ gence Agency warned of a potential “feud or confrontation” arising from a succession struggle. Jong- It has long been expected that Kim Jong-il chol had reportedly been assigned to a department would implement a hereditary succession plan. within the Korean Workers Party in which Kim The North Korean constitution has no formal provisions for leadership succession. Jong-il had served during his own accession. Kim ____________________________________________ Jong-chol also was reported to have attended meetings with his father and visiting Chinese officials, It was predicted initially that Kim Jong-nam, Kim’s including President Hu Jintao. Yet Jong-chol’s star first son, would be selected as the next leader, but also faded in favor of his younger brother, Kim 4 Jong-nam was perceived as having eliminated himself Jong-eun’s. from contention after his arrest for sneaking into Japan During 2009, indicators began to appear that on a false Dominican passport, ostensibly to visit Kim Jong-eun was in the process of being anointed Disneyland Tokyo. However, because he is an illegiti- instead to succeed his father. Initial reports were mate son, Jong-nam was never a viable candidate: cryptic, based on a rumored North Korean telegram Because the Confucian culture and traditions sent to overseas missions designating Jong-eun as were still strong in North Korea at the time, the next leader. Media reports, denied by Beijing, Kim Il-sung could not publicly accept [Kim asserted that Kim Jong-eun had secretly traveled to Jong-nam’s mother] into North Korea’s most China to meet with President Hu Jintao. prestigious family because she had been Jong-eun is reported to have become the head of married to another man and was five years both the State Security Department and the Depart- older than [Kim Jong-il].3 ment of Organization and Guidance of the Korea Jong-nam lost additional favor after the births of Workers Party. In June 2009, South Korean intelli- his half-brothers Kim Jong-chol and Kim Jong-eun, gence reported that North Korea had informed the who were subsequently more favored by Kim Jong- army, the presidium of the Supreme People’s Assem- il. After their births, Jong-nam was largely aban- bly, and its embassies that Jong-eun had been desig- doned by Kim Jong-il. nated as Kim Jong-il’s successor. North Korean embassies signaled congratulatory messages to Expectations then shifted to Kim Jong-chol, Kim Pyongyang in which they pledged their allegiance to Jong-il’s second son.

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