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Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Coffee Production in Maraba

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Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Coffee Production in Maraba IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON COFFEE PRODUCTION IN MARABA BUGINGO Samuel College of Science and Technology School of Science Master of Science in Atmospheric and Climate Science 2018 i IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON COFFEE PRODUCTION IN MARABA By BUGINGO Samuel Registration Number: 217290795 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE ATMOSPHERIC AND CLIMATE SCIENCE College of Science and Technology Supervisor: Prof. Bonfils SAFARI August, 201 ii DECLARATION I declare that this Dissertation contains my own work except where specifically acknowledged. BUGINGO Samuel Reg. Number: 217290795 Signed……………………………………….. Date………………………………………….. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The completion of this work has been made possible through the assistance and cooperation of several people. First, gratitude goes to my supervisor Prof. Bonfils SAFARI for his guidance and support throughout my study, I am highly appreciating his initiative for the existence of master's program in atmospheric and climate science in University of Rwanda. My special thanks go to Abahuzamugambi Ba Kawa Cooperative for providing data for the study. I am also highly indebted to others for their assistance and support. I appreciate the sacrifice made by Mr NYIRIMANA Bernard a farmer and one of the pioneers of Abahuzamugambi Ba Kawa cooperative in Maraba for his answers to my questions. I would also like to thank vastly all my colleagues for their assistance, support and for providing a good working environment. To all my classmates: I enjoyed the resourceful and thought provoking discussions we had together on a wide range of issues. And last but not least, I am grateful for my friends and family for their endless support, especially IRATUZI Rachel for her love, advice and encouragement. This thesis is the result of all of those, who have supported and contributed to it. ii ABSTRACT Agriculture is the mainstay of the Rwandan economy, since it accounts for 43 per cent of GDP and sustains almost 90 per cent of the population. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. A change in temperature and rainfall has been considered to affect agriculture production in many parts of the country. In Rwanda, the coffee industry plays an important role in the country’s economic development. For many years coffee used to be Rwanda’s top export product and thus main source of foreign exchange income. In this study the programming language (python) was used to calculate to calculate coefficient of correlation ( ), coefficient of determination ( ) and the p-value (p) at the significance of 0.05 to determine relationship between climate variables rainfall and temperature and coffee yield from 2002-2017. The relationship between the amount of coffee in kg/ha produced and amount of rainfall in mm was statistically insignificant at 5% level . This indicates that coffee production was not much influenced by rainfall, but there must be other factors like shortage of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides which influence coffee production in the study area. The relationship between the amount of coffee in kg/ha produced and maximum temperature was statistically significant at 5% level, results show that which is less than 0.05, hence the relationship was significant. Negative correlation suggests that when there is an increase in maximum temperature, yield harvested reduces and vice versa. The relationship between the amount of coffee in kg/ha produced and mean temperature was statistically significant at 5% level, results show that which is less than 0.05, hence the relationship was significant. Negative correlation suggests that when there is an increase in mean temperature, yield harvested reduces and vice versa. These results may be associated with attack by pests and diseases associated with high temperature conditions. These results are in line with research according to [13] which shows that increase in temperature inhibits photosynthesis and results in changes in planting periods, reducing growth and resulting in smaller yields. iii OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF TERMS Climate Change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and in the variability of precipitation and temperature that persists for an extended period typically decades or longer. Climate Variability refers to variation in the mean states, on all temporal scales beyond those of individual weather events. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that system. iv LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ACRONYMS CBB : coffee Berry Borer DJF : December-January-February ENSO : El Nino Southern Oscillation FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization GCM : General Circulation Model GDP : Gross Domestic Product IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITCZ : Inter Tropical Convergence Zone JJA : June-July-August MAM : March-April-May MCIP : Maraba Coffee Intensification Program MMD : multi-model-dataset NAEB : National Agricultural Export Development Board RAB : Rwanda Agricultural Board SON : September-October-November : p-value : Correlation coefficient : coefficient of determination v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ..................................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................... iii OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF TERMS ........................................................................................ iv LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER ONE ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem statement and justification for the study ................................................................... 5 1.3 Objective ................................................................................................................................. 6 1.4 Research questions .................................................................................................................. 6 1.5 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER TWO .................................................................................................................................... 7 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Definition of key terms ................................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 The concept of climate ........................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Climate variability.................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Causes of climate change and variability ...................................................................................... 7 2.3 Predicted climate changes ............................................................................................................. 8 2.4 Impact of Climate Variability on Coffee Production .................................................................. 11 2.5 Climate Variability and Coffee Production in Rwanda .............................................................. 11 CHAPTER THREE .............................................................................................................................. 13 3. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Description of the Study Area ..................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Research Design .........................................................................................................................
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