IRI Index Pakistan Public Opinion Survey June 1-15, 2008 Survey Methodology
• In-person, in-home interview • National representative sample of adult resident of Pakistan. • N = 3,484 • Conducted between June 1-15, 2008 • Margin of error ± 1.66 percent overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO) • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage eachdistrict was further stratified by Union Councils. • The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province. • The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. • The response rate was just over 90 percent. • The interview teams comprised both of male and females;the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. Survey Demographics
Male 57% Female 43% Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 10% Urban 32.5% Rural 67.5% Rs 3,001 œ 10,000 57% Age Rs 10,001 œ 15,000 16% Up to 25 32% Rs 15,001 œ 25,000 9% 26-35 38% More than Rs 25,000 2% 36-50 24% Language 50+ 6% Urdu 8% Education Punjabi 46% Illiterate 24% Pashto 12% Primary 16% Middle 15% Sindhi 17% Matric 24% Seraiki 8% Intermediate 11% Hindko 5% Graduate 7% Balochi 2% MA/Prof‘l 2% Other 2% Acronyms Legend
• Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) • Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) • Awami National Party (ANP) • Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) • Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) • Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) • Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) • Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP). This is the parliamentary bloc allied with PPP • Pakistan Peoples Party-Shaheed Bhutto (PPP-SB) • Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) • Balochistan National Party (BNP) • Jamote Qaumi Movement (JQM) • Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Faction (JUI-F) • Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) • Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) INDICATORS Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
100% 90% 84% 86% 80% 73% 70% 70% 60% 59% 50% 46% 44% 44% 40% 43% 33% 43% 26% 30% 38% 20% 15% 12% 19% 10%
0% Jun-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
Right Direction Wrong Direction In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?
80% 72% 70% 72%
60% 56%
50% 51%
40% 34% 35% 33% 34% 30% 30% 24% 25% 29% 20% 23% 14% 19% 16% 12% 10% 4% 3% 13% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
Better Worse Same DK/NR Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the same? 60%
50% 48% 46% 41% 40% 34% 34% 33% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 30% 30% 27% 26% 28% 21% 22% 20% 18% 23% 21% 20% 15% 19% 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 13% 14% 10% 13% 12%
0% Jun-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
Better Worse Same DK/NR Agree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year.
6% Jun-08 63% 32% 3% Jan-08 85% 12% 7% Nov-07 66% 27% 12% Sept-07 65% 23% 6% Jun-07 56% 39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR THE NEW GOVERNMENT In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you? New Gov‘t 90% 80% | 80% 75%
70% | 61% 58% 68% 60% | 50% | 51% 38% 40% 41% 34% 31% | 30% | 20% 22% 18% 10% | 0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 | Jun-08
Good Poor Do you think things will be better in Pakistan now that there is a new government?
20%
Yes No DK/NR
52% 23% How would you rate the following institutions? (percent saying favorable) NOTE: A new government took office between the Jan 2008 and June 2008 polls 85% 81%
65% 64% 64%
57% 55% 50% 48% 42% 41%
30% 29% 24%
National Assembly Government
Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Would you say you liked or disliked the following political personalities? 64% 61% 62%
52% 49% 45% 40%
32% 30% 31% 28%
23% 23% 20%
14% 11% 8% 6%
Yousaf Raza Bilawal Bhutto Makhdoon Amin Asif Zardari Sherry Rehman Ahsan Iqbal Gilani Fahim
Like Dislike Neither/DK/NR The news is reporting that the PPPP/PML-N ruling coalition may fall apart. What is your opinion on the matter?
58% 23% 5% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% I very strongly want the coalition to stay together I do not care one way or the other I very strongly want the coalition to break apart DK/NR Do you support or oppose PPPP forming a coalition with PML-Q? (PML-Q voters n=132; PPP voters n=1,122)
PML-Q Voters 53% 18% 29%
PPP Voters 26% 53% 21%
All Voters 19% 53% 28%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Support Oppose DK/NR Should PML-Q join a coalition with PPPP or with PML-N? (PML-Q voters n=132)
PML-Q Voters 29% 34% 37%
All Voters 16% 20% 64%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Join PPPP Join PML-N DK/NR KEY ISSUES What is the most important issue facing Pakistan? Comparing the January and June polls
Inflation Inflation 55% 71%
Unemployment 13% Unemployment 15%
Poverty 5% Poverty 6% Electricity/Water 4%
Electricity/Water 1% Education 2%
Education 1% Corruption 2%
Law & Order 2% Corruption 1%
Development0% Law & Order 6% Democratic Reforms 1%
Development 1% Al Qaeda0%
Terrorism 12% Suicide Bombings 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Jan-08 Jun-08 Agree or Disagree? The shortages of wheat, petrol, natural gas, and electricity are a serious problem.
92% 7% 2%
0% 50% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/N R Should the new government reinstate the old Supreme Court that Musharraf deposed last fall?
8% 3% 6%
83%
Yes No Maybe DK/NR How important is it to you that the new government restores the old Supreme Court?
Very Important Somewhat Important Not Very Important Not Important At All DK/NR 86% 8%
69% 18% 6% 6% 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan.
Jun-08 61% 27% 12%
Jan-08 73% 24% 2%
Nov-07 66% 31% 3%
Sept-07 74% 21% 5%
Jun-07 64% 21% 16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Agree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan is a serious problem.
Jun-08 45% 36% 19%
Jan-08 65% 32% 4%
Nov-07 63% 34% 4%
Sept-07 57% 33% 10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Agree or Disagree? I support the Army fighting the extremists in NWFP and FATA.
Jun-08 27% 51% 22%
Jan-08 33% 64% 3%
Nov-07 40% 56% 4%
Sept-07 28% 63% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR Agree or disagree? I support a peace deal with the extremists
NOTE: Numbers differ due to rounding
Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR
18%
7% 41% 19% 11%
23%
65% Do you think that the new government should engage in political dialogue with the extremists?
13% Yes No DK/NR 13% 71% Do you think that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States on its war against terror?
100% 90% 83% 89% 80% 82% 70% 63% 71% 60% 47% 50% 46% 40% 43% 30% 38% 32% 15% 15% 15% 20% 11% 12% 9% 10% 5% 3% 14% 0% 5% 2% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
Agree Disagree DK/NR Some people feel that the best way to deal with the extremists is to use military force, while others say the best approach involves education and economic development. Which do you think would be most effective?
Military Force 6%
Economic Development / Education 61%
Both 24%
DK/NR 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% The Prime Minister has announced that a Madrassa Welfare Authority will be created to examine all of the madrassas in the country. Do you support this authority?
8% 9%
83%
Yes No DK/NR Prime Minister Yosuf Raza Gilani recently made the following statement:
—The elimination of terrorism will be our government's highest priority and we intend to vigorously continue the war against terrorism with the support of the people. However, Pakistan must fight terrorism for Pakistan's sake; Pakistan must fight Pakistan's War on Terror, not America's war on terror.Our strategy will be multifaceted. We will use force against terrorists,engage in a dialogue withthose tribes who were misled into supporting the terrorists, and also provide economic development and education.Pakistan will not negotiate with terrorists, but it will talk withinsurgent tribesmen whose withdrawal of support will isolate the terrorists.Yet no talks will be held with anyone refusing to lay down arms.We will use force against violations ofany peace agreements.“ Do you agree or disagree with Prime Minister Gilani‘s statement?
10% 29% 81% 6% 4%
9%
52%
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS How would you rate the following institutions? (percent saying favorable)
NOTE: A new government took office between the Jan 2008 and June 2008 polls % 8 % 8 5 % % % % % % 8 2 1 2 % 0 0 0 % 8 % 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 % % % 0 % % 8 8 % % 7 7 7 % % % 6 6 5 5 6 % 6 4 4 3 % % 6 6 2 6 6 % % 6 0 0 6 % 0 % 8 6 % % 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 % % % 5 % % 5 5 % % % % 1 % 1 % 1 % % % 0 0 % % 9 9 9 % 9 5 5 5 8 8 7 8 9 5 5 7 7 4 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 % % 4 4 4 % % 2 2 % 1 1 4 4 0 4 4 % 4 4 %% %% 3 %% %% 00 %% 99 88 88 33 77 %% 22 %% 22 22 22 44 33 22 22 % % 5 3 1 1 l t l s y e y a n n s l t i a n a c o o r e i c b m d e i i i n n l i r t u e t s t o o o i m i m r s o i i A s l i e P t M t a n C s o o c a r P m s p e P e l N A p v m E o O o G C
Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 How would you rate the following institutions? (percent saying favorable)
23% 18%
Taliban Al Qaeda THE ARMY How would you rate each of the following political personalities? NOTE: Ashfaq Kiyani is the Army Chief of Staff
57%
11% 61%
37% 25%
5%
Ashfaq Kiyani Nov-07 Ashfaq Kiyani Jan-08 Ashfaq Kiyani Jun-08
Favorable Unfavorable How has the performance of President Musharraf affected your opinion of the Army ?
Jun-08 15% 27% 46% 12%
Jan-08 13% 16% 57% 14%
Nov-07 31% 20% 41% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Higher opinion of the Army No change in opinion Lower opinion of the Army DK/NR Agree or Disagree? The Army should have no role in the civilian government.
11%
27%
62%
Agree Disagree DK/NR LEADERSHIP RATINGS Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing Pakistan?
Benazir Bhutto Makdoom Amin Fahim Pervez Musharraf Nawaz Sharif Fazal-ur Rehman Imran Khan 40% Altaf Hussein Bilawal Bhutto Pervez Elahi 38% Yousaf Raza Gilani Iftikhar Chaudhry 36% AQ Khan 35% 32% 32% 32% 31% 30% 28% 27% 24% 26% 28% 25% 23% 25% 23% 21% 23% 20% 21% 17% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14%
9% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 3%3% 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3%0% 3% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% June-06 Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing?
80% 75% 70% 72% 62% 60% 63% 60% 60% 54% 50% 49%
40% 34% 30% 30% 23% 22% 26% 20% 21% 15%
10% 11%
0% Jun-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
Approve Disapprove Do you think President Musharraf should resign?
3% Nov-07 67% 25% 5%
3% Jan-08 75% 16% 6%
9% 1% Jun-08 85% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes No Maybe DK/NR Do you think the new government should remove President Musharraf from office?
6% 2% 9%
83%
Yes No Maybe DK/NR Do you think the new government should remove President Musharraf from office? (by party voters)
Undecided Voters (n=463) 76% 12% 10%
MMA Voters (n=28) 82% 10% 8%
MQM Voters (n=52) 58% 38% 2%
ANP Voters (n=55) 84% 5% 9%
PML-Q Voters (n=132) 30% 63% 3%
PPP Voters (n=1,122) 89% 4% 6%
PML-N Voters (n=1,247) 92% 4%3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes No Maybe If President Musharraf was out of office, would you feel better or worse about the future of Pakistan?
79% Better 13% Worse
53% 26% 6% 7% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Much Better Somewhat Better Somewhat Worse Much Worse DK/NR Would you support the election of A.Q. Khan as president?
Yes No DK/NR
67% 15% 18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Would you say you liked or disliked the following political personalities? % 2 8 % 6
% 7
3
7
% % % %
5 5 % 5 4
6 6 % 2 6 6 % 1
% 6 9 6
% 8 5
6 5 % % 5 % % % 2 2 1 1 % 5 5 0 % 5 5 9 5 7 % 4 4 5 4 % % 0 0 % % % 4 4 7 7 7 % % 3 3 3 5
% % 3 3 % %
2 2 3 1 %% %% 0
3 3 %% 3 88 88 3 %% 77
%% % 22 22
% %% 55 22
44 4
3 33 22
%
22 2
2 22 % %
0 9 9
2 % 1 1
% 6
% 1 % 4
3 % % % % 1 2
1 1 1 1
0 0
1 1 % % %
% % % % 1 1 9 9 9
% 8 % 8 8 8
%
6 6
5 i i f . f i i f l - o n a n n n d n h i i y r l n t a i i d i i a n n h z a r a m r t r a M a a i r a z
a b a u l h a a B n n a h a i h z r s u h m
l a l r d e s s m y y q a e a s h R a s a h n r i a s h h d v K a I A u r
E h h
h a d s
t S f r S a a F h . u u m
h A B K e h
e
i s m z l m
n n
a e u s a z Z i z i a H k l h Q a a e d z
z u
a H s a R o L . i P M u
a f
a h e a h H v e s t a G s n u B t d i o u y A f M r b a z v C w s a M R a e h a w O I o r d t e r l - h F i v a r h a a A A h r Y e P u j a l a e A C N i k u P a u h J h a B S h S M S M
Like Dislike Neither/DK/NR ELECTIONS Do you think that the February 18 elections were free and fair?
65% 21%
33% 32% 15% 6% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Free & Fair Somewhat Free & Fair Somewhat Rigged Very Rigged DK/NR Which party did you vote for in February‘s elections? (Asked only of those who voted n=2,810)
40% 38%
35% 29% 30%
25%
20%
15%
10% 7% 5% 2% 2% 1% 0% PPP PML-N PML-Q ANP MQM JUI-F If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?
50% 50%
40% 36% 36% 32% 27% 32% 30% 26% 30% 28% 25% 22% 24% 23% 22% 23% 20% 22% 19% 19% 15% 16% 14% 14% 10% 13% 10% 6% 5% 5% 5%5% 5% 6% 4% 2% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
PPP PML-Q PML-N MMA MQM PTI ANP DK/NR If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-PUNJAB +/- 1.14)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
PPP 17% 22% 14% 24% 44% 24%
PML-Q 30% 27% 21% 30% 19% 5%
PML-N 23% 30% 54% 36% 32% 51% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-SINDH +/- 1.71)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
PPP 57% 60% 64% 50% 74% 57%
PML-Q 9% 14% 8% 16% 5% 2%
PML-N 3% 4% 4% 6% 4% 8%
PPP-SB - - - - - 6%
MQM 11% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-NWFP +/- 2.27)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
PPP 12% 25% 17% 16% 37% 21%
PML-Q 18% 20% 17% 10% 6% 2%
PML-N 9% 11% 27% 27% 18% 31%
PTI - - - - - 3%
MMA 10% 9% 10% 6% 4% 3%
ANP 7% 7% 3% 7% 12% 10% If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (by province-BALOCHISTAN +/- 3.38)
Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08
PPP 22% 34% 29% 40% 44% 39% PML-Q 44% 27% 12% 16% 15% 5% PML-N 1% 1% 9% 5% 6% 17% ANP - - - - - 2% PPP-SB - - - - - 1% PTI - - - - - 1% PKMAP - - - - - 1% BNP - - - - - 1% JQM - - - - - 2% MMA 9% 20% 15% 15% 4% 2% PML-N is strongly insisting that the Parliament reinstate the old Supreme Court that Musharraf deposed. How does this affect your opinion of PML-N?
80% higher opinion of PML-N 7% lower opinion
4% 15% 53% 27% 3%
0% I 2n0ow% have a m40u%ch higher6 o0p%inion of P8M0%L-N 100% I now have a somewhat higher opinion of PML-N I now have a somewhat lower opinion of PML-N I now have a much lower opinion of PML-N DK/NR If PPPP does not reinstate the old Supreme Court, how will that affect your opinion of PPP?
8% 74% lower opinion of PPP
3%5% 35% 39% 18%
0% I2 w0o%uld have4 a0 m%uch high6e0r% opinion o8f0 P%PP 100% I would have a somewhat higher opinion of PPP I would have a somewhat lower opinion of PPP I would have a much lower opinion of PPP DK/NR Given their stances on the judiciary, how would that impact opinion of PML-N and PPPP? (Just PPP voters n=1,122)
PPP voters' opinion of PPPP given 8% 79% stance on judiciary
PPP voters' opinion of PML-N given 82% 6% stance on judiciary
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% I would have a higher opinion I would have a lower opinion If there was another parliamentary election held next week and the following were your choices, for whom would you vote?
29% 5%
31% 36%
PML-Q A coalition of religious parties led by PML-N A coalition of secular parties led by PPPP DK/NR If there was another parliamentary election held next week and the following were your choices, for whom would you vote? (by province)
PML-N Coalition PPPP Coalition PML-Q
70% 65%
60% 50% 50% 44% 42% 40%
30% 20% 17% 20% 14% 16%
10% 5% 5% 6% 7%
0% Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan