Munich Personal RePEc Archive Political Instability and Lessons for Pakistan: Case Study of 2014 PTI Sit in Protests Javed, Rabbia and Mamoon, Dawood University of Management and Technology 7 January 2017 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76086/ MPRA Paper No. 76086, posted 11 Jan 2017 07:29 UTC Political Instability and Lessons for Pakistan: Case Study of 2014 PTI Sit in/Protests Rabbia Javed University of Management and Technology and Dawood Mamoon University of Management and Technology Abstract: It’s a short allegory to present the case for the importance of Political stability in the economic progress of a country. The Arab spring protests were seen as strengthening democracy in the Arab world. Notwithstanding the surprise Arab spring brought in shape of further destabilizing Middle East, a similar environment of unrest and protests in a practicing democracy like Pakistan capture same dynamics of uncertainty that dampen economic destabilization. The paper briefly covers PTI’s sit in protests in year 2014 to make a case for how political instability stifled economic progress in Pakistan though momentarily. 1. Introduction: The political stability is condition for the nation building and in return it is a process compulsory for the development of a nation. In most of developing countries the governments are not stable. A new government comes into the power overnight; either through coup or army takes over. The new government introduces a new system of rules for the operation of business which cause frustration and anger among the people. Political instability now becomes a serious problem especially in developing countries. It is creating enormous difficulties and delaying the development of these countries. Political stability plays an important role in keeping society united and in maintaining legitimacy within the state. It is an essential for the economic development, social integration, and supremacy of law in a state. The stability of political system has direct effects on the procedures of nation and state building. These both require stable political systems for their growth and successful. The development of nation and state without firm and organized system of politics is not possible. So Political instability can be defined at least three ways, first approach is as, the propensity for regime or government change, second is to focus on the incidence of political disorder or violence in a society, such as killings, third approach focuses on economic growth affect by instability. PAKISTAN has spent 34 out of its 68 years, or half its life, in internal political instability as regime instability, political emergencies and constitutional deadlocks. Long-term instability in Pakistan has been significantly higher than in East Asia and post-Partition India. Lack of mature leadership, confrontation between the main organs of the state, poor relations between the center and the provinces, extensive corruption, distrust among the politicians, strong bureaucracy and crisis of governance are the immediate threats to democracy in Pakistan The political instability is directly affected economic growth. How does it affect economic growth and why this is important in developing countries like Pakistan is discussed in this paper. Foreign investors do not invest in countries where there is civil war, coups, army take over etc. The lack of interest by the foreign investors in politically destabilized countries by giving access to the productive markets hampe the economic progress and thus the country is more likely to rely on foreign aid. For example, the improper use of aid on the huge disasters like earth quake in 2005 and on the wake of flood in 2010 has lost the trust of donors to support Pakistan sufficiently even in most difficult times. Political instability also limits internal investment. Generally they avoid investing in their own country for fear of nationalization of their project, large scale interfere of militant, trade union and harsh attitude of various government agencies. The well off people including the politicians prefer to tale their money outside the country or want to invest out of their own country. The developing countries are deprived of investment funds which badly effect economic growth. The spectra of corruption are growing stronger in absence of true accountability. Accountability which aims at strengthening the roots of democracy is lacking in our country. It is a sort of deluge which is weakening the democracy to its roots and posing a great threat. Weak institutions and feudal systems are also a major part of instability. A rupee, if properly invested, can bring 10pc returns but if only half rupee is invested and the other half is pocketed for personal use, then we will end up with negative returns and, ultimately, a faltering economy. 2. Case Study: How 100 Days of Dharna Create Political Instability. 2.1. Political background Following massive allegations of rigging in the 2013 general election, former cricketer-turned- politician Imran Khan's political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) hesitantly accepted the election results demanding a investigation into electoral rigging in 4 constituencies as a litmus test for the rest of the election process. Government inaction in this regard led the PTI to organize several jalsas throughout Punjab, which is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's political headlock. In August 2014, Imran Khan stated that for 14 months, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf had tried to bring those who were responsible for rigging to justice, all in a legal manner through state institutions. The PTI produced a 2100-page white paper showing evidence of rigging. Despite this, no action was taken. Imran Khan argued that, normally, in any democracy, the Supreme Court of that nation would have nullified the results and called for fresh elections. Even after the evidence was presented and leaks by Afzal Khan, former additional secretary of the election commission, the Supreme Court also took no action. However, Supreme Court sought for evidence which was necessary as per law to reverse all seats which was sought in a petition. The petitioner said he had no proof beyond the allegations which were leveled by Afzal Khan. These were proved wrong. The petition was dismissed as per the law of Pakistan which requires proof beyond reasonable doubt. Throughout these jalsas, Khan expressed his disappointment at the lack of initiative by the country's judicial system and the adverse behavior of the Election Commission toward his cases against election rigging. On 22 April 2014, PTI officially announced the start of their anti- rigging movement. 2.2. Protest rallies Phase 1 — Islamabad jalsa: On 11 May (when year passed) From all Pakistan people gathered in Islamabad to support Imran Khan where Khan demanded 4 constituency investigation from government and until that decided to protest in-front of election commission offices every Friday. Khan also blamed Geo News to be Part of rigging and announced to prove what he said in Faisalabad Jalsa. Phase 2 — Faislabad jalsa: In Faisalabad, a greater number of people gathered in his jalsa where demand of Imran intensified and he questioned the victory speech of Nawaz Sharif and decided to intensify his movement to increase pressure of government and announced Sialkot Jalsa. Phase 3 — Sialkot jalsa: In the Sialkot Jalsa, Khan addressed a huge crowd and criticized the role of the judiciary in the election. In his usual tone, he also commented on the outcomes of the result. Phase 4 — Bahawalpur jalsa: On 27 June 2014, Khan managed to gather a massive crowd at the Bahawalpur Stadium where he announced plans for the Azadi March, calling the protest march the final phase of his movement against electoral fraud in the 2013 general election. He also gave government a margin of one month (because of the holy month of Ramadan) to open an investigation into four constituencies (as marked by his four jalsas) and presented further demands. 2.3. Informal PTI–PAT union As was expected, Imran Khan and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, both neither fully merged their protest marches nor fully rejected to support each other. On 10 August 2014, Qadri formally announced that his party's political march, the Inqilab March, would precede parallel with PTI's Azadi march. Both marches were organized to take different routes, albeit closely mirroring each other. However, as time went by, it became quite apparent that the two parties had similar objectives yet different aims and strategies. The announcement of two parallel marches by parties in the opposition gave rise to speculation that a coalition between PTI and PAT was possible. The chiefs of the two parties never clearly stipulated a formal coalition but an informal agreement to support each other was achieved. On 11 August 2014, Qadri and Khan both clarified media persons that there will be two parallel marches, informally allied together for the dismissal of the government, yet without any combined forward strategy. 2.4. Goals and demands Imran Khan and PTI had consistently asked the government to constitute tribunals and committees to investigate electoral fraud in the four constituencies since the 2013 election results were announced. In making these demands, Khan unwillingly accepted the election results, though being consistently ridiculed by the PML-N government and ministers. A year on, the PML-N government made no headway or momentum in this regard and remained "hesitant in investigating the alleged rigging". On the other hand, Khan had consistently presented proofs of electoral fraud in various constituencies. The PTI chief had also named the caretaker Punjab chief minister Najam Sethi and former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in facilitating fraud on the order of PML-N in the past elections. 2.4.1. Initial demands Because of the lack of government initiative in opening investigation into allegations of electoral fraud, Khan gave the PML-N government a month to fulfill his demand.