1
COVID-19 Briefing Memo R&R Partners, April 23, 2020
Executive Summary
Thursday sees the markets having yet another volatile day, with all three major markets ultimately closing the day flat after “stocks were taken for a wild ride … that showed just how important finding a treatment for the coronavirus is for Wall Street.” That wild ride was caused by news that “Gilead Sciences’ drug, remdesivir, did not improve patients’ condition or reduce the coronavirus pathogen in their bloodstream,” according to an initial clinical trial conducted in China, reported by CNBC. Another likely factor was the announcement that more than 4.4. million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, marking “the fifth straight week that job losses were measured in the millions.” As noted by The Washington Post, “jobless figures on this scale haven’t been seen since the Great Depression.”
Even though the markets are (more or less) stable (for now), with jobless claims mounting nearly 27 million since March 15, crude oil markets collapsing and government bond yields nearing historic lows, it’s not surprising when Bloomberg writes what many are now starting to come to grips with − “this week the message is loud and clear: The recession is hitting hard.”
While economists now seem to be coalescing around the idea of a bleaker economic future compared to earlier, rosier estimates, consumers seem to be embracing the opposite outlook. According to Morning Consult, “consumer sentiment around the globe is starting to recover…despite economic projections for weakening growth and worse outcomes.” Respondent surveyed “are showing increasing optimism about the future, as the number of people who say they expect to be worse off in a year has consistently declined.”
So, while consumers are still saying they are currently worse off financially than they were 12 months ago, a seemingly irrational optimism toward the future is being shown.
This “irrational optimism” was a reoccurring theme in new survey research released this week by The Harris Poll. For example, in explaining why most Americans, contrary to reopening protests portrayed on TV, are supportive of continuing social distancing restrictions, The Harris Poll this week noted that “Americans are optimistic about overcoming the virus and getting back to normal, which is why they back the current lockdown in overwhelming numbers despite the growing economic pain.” This theme then reappears later in a series of question regarding an eventual COVID-19 vaccine that found that even though “62% said a C19 vaccine would be necessary to resume normal activities … less than half (44%) say they are very likely to get a COVID-19 vaccination as soon as it becomes available.” In seeking to explain this dissonance, The Harris Poll noted “Americans feel the distant future is of no concern, or irrational optimism in our DNA is winning out over common sense.”
But just like how economists and consumers cannot agree on what our economic future holds, the optimism exhibited in The Harris Poll’s research wasn’t necessarily reflected in the latest wave of travel research from the U.S. Travel Association and MMGY.
According to their research, “Consumer intent to travel in the upcoming six months, for both leisure and business, continues to decline as the COVID-19 pandemic expands and intensifies. Intent to travel for a leisure vacation has fallen from 39% in Wave I to just 31% in
Wave II. And, intent to travel for business in the next six months fell from 26% to 21% in Wave II.” Additionally, “consumers are increasingly less likely to engage in specific travel activities. Intent to stay in a hotel or resort in the upcoming six months fell from 41% to just 33% in
Wave II, and the likelihood of taking a domestic flight dropped from 39% to 31%.” However, that does not mean there were not pockets of
2 good news, given “once the COVID-19 pandemic passes, more than half of the respondents to the current wave will be eager to travel for leisure. And, 4 in 10 will likely travel by plane, while 1 in 3 are likely to take a vacation closer to home than they were before COVID-19.”
While it’s not as rosy as the data from Morning Consult and The Harris Poll, these travel intent numbers should change once the worst of the pandemic starts to be behind us; once destinations, airlines and airports roll out plans to ensure the safety of travelers; and given we continue to see from the social conversation, week after week, that people are yearning to travel after weeks stuck at home.
Afterall, as noted above, optimism toward the future, whether rational or not, is an enduring part of the American experience. To borrow one last line from The Harris Poll this week: right now, “go short on the economy but long on American resilience.”
3
Key Economic Indicators
Dow Jones/S&P 500/Nasdaq One-Month Lookback (as of close 4/23):
[Google Market Summary, 4/23/20]
CNBC: "Stocks close flat after wild session as investors assess Gilead coronavirus treatment." • "Stocks were taken for a wild ride on Thursday that showed just how important finding a treatment for the coronavirus is for
Wall Street."
o "The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just 39.44 points higher, or 0.2%, at 23,515.26. Earlier in the day, the Dow rallied
more than 400 points. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to 2,797.80 while the Nasdaq Composite closed just below breakeven
at 8,494.75. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were up more than 1% at their session highs."
[CNBC, 4/22/20]
The Washington Post: "4.4 million Americans sought jobless benefits last week, as economic pain continued across the United States." • "More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the Labor Department, a signal the
tidal wave of job losses continues to grow during the coronavirus pandemic."
o "It's the fifth straight week that job losses were measured in the millions. From March 15 to April 18, 26.5 million people
have probably been laid off or furloughed. The number of jobs lost in that brief span effectively erased all jobs created
after the 2008 financial crisis. Jobless figures on this scale haven't been seen since the Great Depression."
[The Washington Post, 4/23/20]
The Wall Street Journal: "States Burn Through Cash for Unemployment Payments."
• "States are quickly depleting funds set aside as millions of laid-off workers apply for unemployment-insurance benefits offered
by state governments, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Treasury Department data."
o "Nearly half of U.S. states have logged double-digit percentage declines in their trust-fund balances since the end of
February, the month before the coronavirus pandemic triggered shutdowns that led to widespread job losses and
record numbers of jobless claims."
[The Wall Street Journal, 4/22/20]
4
Bloomberg: "Stocks Are Finally Feeling the Fear That's Hitting Other Markets."
• "In the pandemic economy, financial markets have flashed confusing economic signals, muddied by monetary support, the
trading impulses of the fast money, and ever-more complex infection data. But this week the message is loud and clear: the
recession is hitting hard."
o "After a stimulus-driven rebound for the S&P 500 Index, the chaos in oil markets is proving too much for investors to
ignore. Crude is now pricing in no less than total demand destruction, and U.S. stocks are slumping as the fallout
intensifies from the prolonged economic lockdown."
o "Oil is on the front line of the turmoil, but it's far from the only asset that has been ringing alarm bells. Corporate bonds
have recovered thanks to policy support, but fear of default is rife."
o "Government bond yields near historic lows point to expectations that virus-induced pain will be with the world for
months or years to come."
[Bloomberg, 4/21/20]
Axios: "Consumers see a brighter future, economists disagree."
• "Consumer sentiment around the globe is starting to recover, data firm Morning Consult finds, despite economic projections for
weakening growth and worse outcomes."
o "Ratings agency Fitch said Wednesday it expects global GDP to decline by 3.9% this year, "twice as large as the
decline" it predicted just weeks ago and "twice as severe as the 2009 recession."
• "However, in its latest reading of consumer sentiment, Morning Consult finds respondents are showing increasing optimism
about the future, as the number of people who say they expect to be worse off in a year has consistently declined."
o "Sentiment hit an all-time low on April 7, after falling 30% in a matter of days, but has stabilized over the past two
weeks."
o "That recovery has come entirely from expectations about the future rather than the present, as the percentage of
people who say they are better off financially now than they were 12 months ago and who believe that now is a good
time to make a major household purchase remain at all-time lows of 19% and 17%, respectively."
[Axios, 4/23/20]
Bloomberg: "U.S. Debt to Surge Past Wartime Record, Deficit to Quadruple."
• "The U.S. budget deficit may quadruple this year to almost $4 trillion. Projections from the Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget (CRFB) say that by 2023 U.S. debt held by the public will surpass records set in the post-World War II years."
o "And these projections only include spending enacted so far in a three-month-old crisis that has seen emergency
congressional appropriations top $2.3 trillion. Additional spending is almost certain as the coronavirus pandemic
destroys millions of jobs and thousands of businesses while slashing tax revenues for local and state governments."
5
o "Still, the U.S. is destined for much higher levels of debt when the contagion passes. In a worst-case scenario, the CRFB
predicts debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2025, easily exceeding the record of 106% set in 1946. That won't represent an
immediate threat because interest rates are so low. The Treasury can borrow cheaply. The challenge will be to
rekindle the economy so that, like after World War II, the debt can be conquered through growth instead of austerity."
[Bloomberg, 4/21/20]
Axios: "Employers bear the brunt of the coronavirus reopening."
• "Even if some states and the federal government begin encouraging people to go back to work, employers ultimately will make
the decision about when to bring their workers back to the office, and what that looks like."
o "There's no playbook for the kinds of decisions involved in reopening a workplace during a pandemic, which range
from workplace travel policies to how to monitor employees for coronavirus symptoms."
o "The testing fiasco means employers don't know who can come back to work. What does an employer do if someone
gets sick and tests positive? Send everyone home? Call the health department to do contact tracing? Do it
themselves if, as will inevitably happen, the health department is slow or doesn't show?"
[Axios, 4/21/20]
Bloomberg: "Virus May Shave Off 95% Profit of Macau Casinos in March Quarter."
• "Macau casino operators are expected to show a 95% drop in their earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization
for the March quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates."
o "The plunge underscores the deep financial damage inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic and follows a 60% drop in
gaming revenue in the first quarter after casinos in Macau were shut for 15 days in February to curb the deadly
pathogen."
[Bloomberg, 4/21/20]
Business Insider: "Half of all travel-related jobs in the U.S. could be eliminated by the end of April, according to a new report."
• ”… a new report by Oxford Economics suggests the impact of the coronavirus will be "more than nine times the impact of 9/11 on
travel sector revenue."
o "The report projects that 6.9 million U.S. jobs will be eliminated this month due to travel declines, resulting in a total loss
of 8 million travel-related jobs by the end of April. That's over half of the 15.8 million American jobs the U.S. Travel
Association (USTA) says are typically supported by travel expenditures."
[Business Insider, 4/22/20]
The New York Times: "The Death of the Department Store: 'Very Few Are Likely to Survive'"
• "American department stores, once all-powerful shopping meccas that anchored malls and Main Streets across the country,
have been dealt blow after blow in the past decade. JCPenney and Sears were upended by hedge funds. Macy's has been
closing stores and cutting corporate staff. Barneys New York filed for bankruptcy last year. But nothing compares to the shock
6
the weakened industry has taken from the coronavirus pandemic. The sales of clothing and accessories fell by more than half
in March, a trend that is expected to only get worse in April."
o "The department stores, which have been failing slowly for a very long time, really don't get over this," said Mark A.
Cohen, the director of retail studies at Columbia University's Business School. "The genre is toast, and looking at the
other side of this, there are very few who are likely to survive."
[The New York Times, 4/21/20]
Axios: "Budget desperation deepens for local governments."
• "The city and county budget crisis is deepening. Local governments were left out of the latest coronavirus relief package
passed by Senate on Tuesday, despite mayors from across the country asking for $250 billion in direct aid to help cities
continue to function as tax revenue plummets and coronavirus-mitigation costs skyrocket."
o "Local governments are required to balance their budgets and can't carry deficits, with a few exceptions."
[Axios, 4/22/20]
Social Listening Report: “What Will I Do After the Coronavirus?”
Date Range: April 9 — April 23
Conversation Categories:
• Travel
• Attractions
• Celebrate
• See Friends
• Restaurant/Bar
• Self-Care
• Humor
• The Macro Look:
o As mentioned in previous memos, there is a stark difference from mid-March posts compared to mid-April. March
was consumed with chaos, and the posts were much angrier and "louder." Since April, the posts have been a lot
calmer, and for some, almost exudes feelings of defeat or malaise. For example, a March post might use expletives
and be typed fully in capital letters, while April posts are simply, "I can't wait for this to be over …” a much more
subdued in tone. While many people are keeping busy and have adopted a new routine, there is sense a feeling of
dullness among many. Being in isolation for over a month and a half is taking its toll on the American psyche. This
7
could somewhat explain some of the reopening protests − it's being driven by a need for better mental health, as
much as a need for financial health. Regardless, whether reopening is the right or wrong decision, it will be up to
governors and health care professionals.
o Overall, as people discuss their post-corona plans, they are all over the place on what to do first − from boxing classes
to visiting a nail salon, to traveling to places like Houston, Nashville and Mexico. Of note here is that it seems like many
are dreaming about activities they may have never done before, but their time in isolation has them finally taking
stock of things and wishing to live life better after quarantine. This is a presumption at this point, but it does make
sense when we think about how busy life in general was for many Americans before the quarantine and how this
down time might be a cause for introspection and reevaluating certain decisions. People can now consider all of the
things/activities/places, especially in their home cities, that perhaps they never experienced but now desire to. For
example, one New Yorker wrote that once this is over "I'm going to visit every single museum in New York City and cry
over the art."
o As Americans continue to stay inside, the physical exercise for many is minimal. We are seeing conversations about
needing chiropractors, planning massages, and being desperate to return to the gym. The immediate implication is
that people are longing for their self-care routines and activities. Looking long-term, this tells us that people will likely
need some "me time" when things go back to normal. So, while many people will desire to be social and go out,
reconnecting with family and friends, we cannot forget the underlying importance of a return to self-care. People also
want resources to get their bodies in better shape and improve their overall well-being, which could mean taking up
yoga, doing daily stretching, and purchasing gym memberships. Brands, especially in the travel industry, should take
this as more validation that a focus on personal wellness will be here to stay.
o A note about emojis and GIFs − brands that are looking to engage on social should consider two things. First, is the
frequent usage of the crying emoji; it's become a very popular emoji in the conversation around "can't wait to do___,"
doing a good job of conveying the pent-up anger/sadness/desire of wanting to do something important to you. And
although it us technically crying, it's actually being used in an "I'll be SO
happy when I can __" context. Second is about gifs and images in
general. They are what make up most of the "humor" conversation. It
has never been easier to go viral than during this quarantine, when
most of the entire world is feeling the same feelings of isolation/going
crazy/needing to get out, etc., and being able to relate to each other.
They also provide moments of humor throughout this tragedy, which
we all need at times. Brands should not discount the power of these
relatable, often low-quality posts and emojis that are working to unite
people sharing the same circumstances.
Post-Virus Conversation Themes:
• Travel (1%) − Down 1 pt. Still seeing a lot of beach/Mexico/sunny destinations. As the weather changes and as we step into early
summer, the desire to be outdoors and get more sun will be strong. We are approaching prime summer vacation time that,
8
during a normal year, would generate all of conversation on its own, but this year, given current circumstance, the desire and
conversation will be heightened. Lastly, some people mention a singular destination, while others mention a list of two or three.
• Attractions (previously named "theme parks") (16%) − Up 12 pts. Disney and museums are two popular attractions that people
are waiting for once they reopen. These are easy places for people to go and feel social again. Theme parks, aquariums,
museums and theaters are all places where people find joy and laughter, which is hard to find these days isolated at home.
• Celebrate (9%) − Down 8 pts. Concerts have emerged as an important topic, indicating the need for performers to get ready to
entertain once we are released from stay home orders. But it's also interesting to see that people are not worried about risks of
being near others in a concert setting. Perhaps at this phase, they just aren't thinking about the social distancing aspects and
just dreaming about getting back to normal. Note: The share of voice is inflated by other unrelated posts.
• See Friends (19%) − Up 9 pts. No change from last week; it's mostly mentions of "can't wait to be reunited" and "I miss you."
• Restaurant/Bar (3%) − Down 15 pts. Sushi has been a rising topic, likely since people miss "all you can eat." This is a fairly
emotional topic, as people are so eager to return to their favorite restaurants, despite being able to get take-out from many
places.
• Self-Care (31%) − Up 8 pts. Nails, eyebrows, lip injections, hair dying, barbershops, tattoos and piercings are the first acts of self-
care once quarantine is over. There is a lot of humor in this conversation because everyone is in the same situation, lacking
professional services, and worried about their appearance.
• Humor (21%) − Down 5 pts. Images and videos (e.g., TikTok) dominate the conversation. No surprise that this topic is a large
share of the total conversation given the relatability; it's easy for these images to be retweeted and to even go viral.
9
Google Search Trends
[Google Search Trends, 4/23/20]
Consumer Research
Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Week 6: "Too risky to go back to "normal"
• "Most Americans feel it would be risky to return to "normal" life just yet and would wait indefinitely or at least for a few more
months for the threat of coronavirus infection to subside, per the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index. The latest findings from our
national poll suggest most Americans aren't ready and worry it would hurt their health and well-being."
o "The results also suggest that the recent protests in Michigan and elsewhere against stay-at-home orders, which
have drawn national press coverage, don't reflect how the majority of Americans think about the response to the
virus."
o "Republicans are less proximate to it; they're less likely to live in the big urban centers," said Cliff Young, president of
Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs. "But it has less to do with their proximity to it and much more to do with where they get their
information from, and that they take their cues from their political leaders."
10
§ "This is an example of tribalism and two very different narratives about the same facts. This will be perhaps a
leading indicator of where we'll be in two or three weeks when the discussions really heat up about opening
things up."
o "The sixth installment of our weekly survey found no significant changes from recent weeks in terms of respondents'
physical and mental health, work status and conditions, or ability to pay the bills. But specific habits are evolving as
the threat drags on."
§ "The use of masks continues to climb: 64% of people are now wearing one outside the home either
sometimes or all of the time, up from 56% a week ago."
§ "Around one-third have turned to telemedicine: 22% said they'd spoken with a health care provider by phone
and 13% said they'd done so by video chat."
§ "Drinking alcohol is up; exercising is down."
§ "Home cooking is way up."
§ "Parents are letting their children watch more TV and videos."
§ "Social distancing is ubiquitous, with 92% saying they do it, even as those who said they're engaging in 14-day
self-quarantining subsided to 43%, the lowest in four weeks."
[Axios, 4/21/20]
The Harris Poll, Wave 8. • 1. "America Stays Patient: Americans are siding with governors in saying their state's social distancing restrictions are striking the
right balance with just over 1 in 10 saying they are too restrictive."
o "7 in 10 Americans (69%) say their state is striking the right balance while (17%) say they are not restrictive enough and
only (14%) too restrictive."
o "In our polling featured on NBC News, over two-thirds of voters (67%) said they expect it to be at least a month before
Americans should start returning to work and life as normal. "
o "Meanwhile, financial stress is building for nearly 9 in 10 Americans as we discussed with CNBC, and the Harvard
CAPS/Harris Poll found that economy and jobs are now the second most important issue (41% of voters) after the
management of the coronavirus crisis (63%)."
o "Takeaway: Americans are optimistic about overcoming the virus and getting back to normal which is why they back
the current lockdown in overwhelming numbers despite the growing economic pain. Go short on the economy but
long on American resilience."
• 2. "Every Business Is Now Like a Hospital: No one action will make Americans feel safer to fly on a plane, return to work, attend a
sporting or large-venue event, or eat out at a restaurant. But‚ there are tactics consumers say will make them feel more
welcome and at ease."
o "Eat alone together: Three-fourths (74%) of Americans miss dining at a restaurant/bar and patrons want back in but
(62%) want restaurants configured for social distancing, and (56%) want maximum capacity limits to ensure six feet
between diners."
o "Practice haute hygiene: According to Eater, "You may be having dinner with a waiter wearing gloves . ..maybe a face
mask, a dinner where the menu is disposable, where the tables, half of the tables in that restaurant no longer appear,
where your temperature is checked before you walk into the establishment." In fact, our poll found (45%) of Americans
11
want temperature tests for restaurant staff and even a quarter want a no-beard policy for waiters and kitchen staff
(22%).
o "No more open floor plans: In order to feel safe returning to work (61%) want policies requiring employees to stay home
if they feel sick, (48%) say no meetings larger than 10 people and (47%) say desks should be spaced six feet apart."
o "Takeaway: Farm-to-table thinking now applies to hygiene: Every company's cleanliness must be 'transparent and
sourceable'. Expect consumers and employees to make demands on businesses that seem prudent to the former
and excessive to the latter. And each must manage the tension in customer wants with conflicts in privacy, margins
and worker rights."
• 3. "Will Sports Return at All? As fans hope for some return of an NBA playoff, the Stanley Cup and the start of MLB, Americans are
unsure that sports will go on: One-third (34%) say sports leagues should cancel this season and wait until next season to
resume, but there are other competing opinions:
o "Supporting Dr. Fauci's plan, 4 in 10 say they should either play the season without fans (21%), or restart the current
season now and phase in fans later (20%). Only (15%) say they should restart the current season only when fans can
attend."
o "While more than 4 in 10 (45%) say they miss watching sports on TV and half (49%) miss attending sporting events in
person, one-fifth of Americans (21%) say there is nothing that would make them feel safe to attend a sporting event
again. In our polling for USA TODAY, only (6%) said they would go to a game as soon as allowed."
o "Takeaway: Americans are coming to grips about managing their expectations about hot dogs and a seventh-inning
stretch. Meanwhile reruns of historic sporting events like The Masters and NBA Finals are reaching record audiences.
Sports programmer and historian might be a new post-COVID-19 occupation."
• 4. "Big Tech and Pharma to the Rescue: Sometimes it takes a crisis to turn a black hat, white: A large majority (81%) of Americans
approve of large tech companies helping to trace coronavirus cases they may have been exposed to."
o "What a difference a pandemic makes: In our Axios-Harris Poll 100 2019 Corporate Reputation Rankings, some tech
reputation rankings were battered while others are rising in American esteem: Samsung was ranked No. 7, Microsoft
No. 9, and Sony No. 10."
o "Even tech as an industry is rising during COVID-19: 38% say their view of the industry has become more positive since
the start of the outbreak, and 40% of Americans say the tech industry should provide solutions during the outbreak."
o "And the pharmaceutical industry stands to play a big role also: As Fortune notes, "as much as the pandemic has
devastated many industries, it has offered Big Pharma a chance to shine as never before, winning back the trust of a
public infuriated with years of soaring drug prices. Will it seize the moment? Without a safe and widely disseminated
vaccine to confer immunity on a huge swath of the population, it's hard to imagine life returning to something
resembling 'normal.'" In our tracking, over half (55%) say pharma should be providing solutions during the outbreak,
and 4 in 10 (37%) say their view has become more positive."
o "Takeaway: American compliance to share their data is a boon to public health and re-opening the economy safely.
Once testing scales, information sharing will be crucial and watch for tech to be a big part of the solution in socializing
'safe spots' for consumerism and other economic and social activities."
12
• 5. "Curiously, Americans Spurn Lessons Learned: We spent this whole newsletter telling you how prudent and careful Americans
are being, and then there's this: Despite the decrease in American's fear of dying from COVID-19 (44%, down from 56% last
week), Americans are not thinking about proper precautions against the flu next season."
o "Herd Immunity? While 62% said a C19 vaccine would be necessary to resume normal activities like flying, going to the
gym, sporting events, etc., (57% to return to work), less than half (44%) say they are very likely to get a COVID-19
vaccination as soon as it becomes available."
o "Only (53%) of Americans say they received their flu shot during the 2019−2020 season and only (50%) plan to get their
flu shot for the upcoming 2020−2021 season. That's only a four-point uptick in concern, supporting assertions in an
excellent FT essay that humans are poor at assessing risk."
o "Takeaway: Americans feel the distant future is of no concern, or irrational optimism in our DNA is winning out over
common sense. Either way, the good thing is, according to our data, we're listening to science and trusting the CDC
more than the White House. There's still time to get that flu shot!"
[The Harris Poll, 4/22/20]
MMGY/U.S. Travel Association: U.S. Traveler Pulse, Wave II.
• “In its second wave released last week, the U.S. Travel
Association’s Travel Intentions Pulse Survey has seen
overall drops in travel sentiment. Yet more than half of
travelers say they will be eager to travel again once the
pandemic has passed, and one-third of travelers who
had plans prior to the COVID-19 outbreak are suggesting
that they have simply postponed those plans, giving
travel brands reason to believe there will be a pent-up
demand for travel when restrictions begin to be lifted.
o “Among those surveyed, leisure travel leads
business travel, which would repeat patterns
we’ve seen in the past during travel rebounds.
Thirty-one percent believe they are likely to take
a leisure trip in the next six months, while 21%
believe they will travel for business in the next six
months.”
o “More than one-third of those who regularly
travel for business are more likely to not only
travel for business but also for leisure in the next
six months. This points to a target audience that
may have more confidence and/or ability to
travel when restrictions are lifted.”
13
[MMGY/U.S. Travel Association, accessed 4/23/20]
o “The potential impact of travel deals to help stimulate bookings fell 9 percentage points from Wave I to Wave II, as
travelers first and foremost seek personal safety before committing to travel.”
o “As the COVID-19 impact grew between the first and second waves of the survey, consumer confidence around
personal safety related to travel dropped. Travel brands in the lodging industry in particular will want to track that
safety sentiment, as more survey respondents feel safe today in vacation rental homes and condos (19%) than those
who feel safe staying in a hotel or a resort (13%).”
o “And while younger travelers say they are more likely to participate in the next six months in activities that tend to
have higher density like cruises, concerts and theater performances, the age groups of 35–49 and 50–64 are
suggesting a greater likelihood to travel domestically or stay in a hotel in the next six months.”
Industry & Category-Specific Data
ADVERTISING: “Millennials, Gen Z Want Distraction — and Action — from Brands During Crisis.”
• “While several studies have been conducted in recent weeks in hopes of understanding what consumers need during an
unprecedented global health crisis, many of them seem to just reflect the obvious rather than building a more helpful
framework through which to see what’s happening around us.”
• “In contrast, Dentsu Aegis came up with a set of phases based on the five stages of grief to help garner more from survey
respondents. Asking people which phase they identified with and how that’s changed over time since the pandemic began
created an insightful set of information to help brands navigate the emotional storms that consumers are currently
weathering”
[ADWEEK, 4/17/20]
ADVERTISING: “Media industry sees advocacy avalanche.”
• “Advocacy and corporate reputation television ads are spiking, while other industries continue to pull back spend, according to
data from Advertising Analytics.”
o “Brands are expected by consumers to address the coronavirus issue in a direct and empathetic tone. This means
that any messaging that a company would typically do around sales that would place their ads in a different
category, like retail or entertainment, have likely been cut or replaced by messaging around corporate responsibility
or advocacy linked to the virus.”
[Axios, 4/21/20]
ADVERTISING: “‘In These Uncertain Times,’ Coronavirus Ads Strike Some Repetitive Notes.”
• “The most common elements of coronavirus advertising are familiar by now: piano music, images of empty streets, voice-
overs that invoke “these uncertain times,” and companies promises to be there for consumers. But that approach is getting
repetitive, and risks appearing insincere, some in the ad industry say.”
14
o “The execution is understandable given companies’ fear of striking the wrong tone and the constraints on production
during stay-at-home orders, Mr. Haney said. “It’s not so bad,” he added. “It’s only when you see it all at once, all
mashed together, you’ve got to say we’ve got to do something different.”
o “As people settle into the stay-at-home and pause life, people are ready for more optimism and more forward-
looking stories,” Ms. Carter said.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 4/20/12]
ADVERTISING: “Advertisers Press for Fall Upfront Sales as TV’s $20 Billion Market Falls Apart.”
• “Each year, the nation’s largest TV networks try to sell billions of dollars in advertising time in the sales blitz known as the upfront.
In 2020, the process is fast becoming an “un-front.”
o “Advertisers and their media agencies in a normal cycle negotiate a dizzying array of deals, schedules and audience
guarantees with the big media conglomerates over a period of about two months, usually starting a few weeks after
the end of the traditional broadcast TV season in late May. But the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which have
halted production on most scripted TV programs while scuttling live TV sports, is sure to slow the pace of advertising
deals this year. A significant number of them may get pushed into 2021.”
[Variety, 4/21/20]
ADVERTISING: “CNN matches new digital ad spend for coronavirus messaging.”
• “CNN has pledged to match ad inventory for any brands making new investments on its digital platforms, which can then be
used for social-good messaging around COVID-19, or donated to other charities and organizations.”
• “The news organization says it will match 100% of any new digital investment with inventory for the same dollar amount from
now until the end of April. Advertisers can run their matched media ads across CNN.com, Great Big Story, CNNgo, CNN Audio,
and CNN’s digital newsletters.”
[Ad Age, 4/20/20]
AIRLINES: “Don’t Count on Airlines to Fully Recover for 3 Years: Delta CEO.”
• “Air travel will not rebound to pre-pandemic levels for another three years, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian warned analysts
during the company’s first-quarter earnings call on Wednesday. “Demand for near-term air travel dropped to almost zero in a
matter of weeks,” he said.”
• “But when travel starts to return, Bastian predicts Delta will be a different airline. “Safety will not be limited to flight safety, but
[will expand] to personal safety,” he said. “People will pay a premium on service excellence like never before.”
[Skift, 4/22/20]
AIRLINES: “Airlines under pressure for refund policies.”
• “U.S. airlines are facing intense congressional and legal pressure for their handling of refunds during the COVID-19 crisis.”
15
o “In response to questions from the senators, all 11 mainline U.S. airlines (American, Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska,
JetBlue, Hawaiian, Spirit, Allegiant, Frontier and Sun Country) said they will provide refunds after they cancel a flight, an
option required under U.S. law.”
§ “However, only the discount carriers Spirit and Allegiant said they have implemented a policy allowing for
travelers to receive refunds if the customer initiates a cancellation.”
[Travel Weekly, 4/20/20]
AIRLINES: “New technology measures distance between travelers in airport security lines.”
• “Even with those low numbers, airports are still working to ensure those who are traveling are maintaining the recommended
six-foot distance to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. And, of course, that will only become a more challenging
issue once travel restrictions are lifted and airport traffic picks up.”
• “To address this concern, motion analytics company, iinside, has developed a way to use its technology to measure the
average distance between people in security lines and the length of time they remain at that distance.”
o “Known as SafeDistance, the service is being rolled out for free to iinside’s airport customers that are already using its
3D LiDAR laser beam technology to manage passenger flow at security checkpoints.”
o “Those airports include Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Indianapolis International Airport, McCarran
International Airport in Las Vegas, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, Miami International Airport, Jackson-
Medgar Wiley Evers International Airport in Mississippi, and San Jose International Airport.”
[PhocusWire, 4/22/20]
AIRLINES: “Airport Automation to Speed Up for a Crisis Rebound with Less Human Contact.”
• “Airport executives are still in crisis-management mode. The pandemic is forcing them to make agonizing operational
decisions. Yet, the executives will soon resume thinking about the long term. And when they do, airport executives will consider
increased automation as a top priority, experts said.”
o “By the end of May, [Amsterdam’s] Schiphol [Airport] will add computed tomography X-rays, known as CT scans, to
security lanes in one of its departure halls. The so-called CT scans take hundreds of images of each piece of luggage
and can reduce the amount of manual inspection and the number of hands that need to touch bags.”
o “Airport retailers may look at ways to use tech to remove the need for people to touch objects.”
[Skift, 4/21/20]
AIRLINES: “Boeing workers return to their factories to find hand-washing stations and a new sense of worry.”
• “Boeing workers came back to their jobs this week after a three-week furlough intended to halt the spread of the coronavirus
through the workforce …”
o “Now Boeing has started reopening the factories in what will be a closely watched experiment in whether Americans
can safely return to work, in the nation with the highest number of COVID-19 casualties in the world. Before the return,
16
the factories were scrubbed clean and adjustments were made to combat the deadly virus in places where social
distancing is difficult, if not impossible.”
[The Washington Post, 4/21/20]
EDUCATION: “Coronavirus sends American universities over a cliff.”
• “The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating a troubling trend of falling enrollment at American universities. This could push
many institutions over the edge.”
o “The pandemic is hitting universities amid an intensifying, nationwide debate over whether college is worth the cost.
Rising tuition, coupled with fear of accruing mountains of student debt, have chipped away at enrollment. In 2019,
250,000 fewer students were enrolled compared with 2018, per NPR.”
[Axios, 4/23/20]
EDUCATION: “Universities try to offset massive losses with layoffs and furloughs.”
• “Universities across the U.S. are predicting massive revenue losses as uncertainty looms over whether it will be safe enough for
students, staff and faculty to return to campus in the fall.”
o “A number of colleges will furlough and lay off workers to offset budget cuts and operating costs amid the coronavirus
pandemic. The losses are accumulating as students demand tuition, room and board, and other fee refunds from the
spring semester, claiming online classes are a lesser value compared to in-person learning, Inside Higher Ed reports.”
[Axios, 4/21/20]
EDUCATION: “The Big Question for Colleges: Will There Be a Fall Semester on Campus?”
• “Colleges across the country are trying to decide whether they can reopen campus for the fall, and how long they can put off a
final decision. Schools are mapping out different scenarios, depending on the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic in the
fall. Boston University, for example, has said that if the virus is still raging, it may not return to face-to-face instruction until
January 2021. Another scenario projects some students on campus in the fall, and others taking classes remotely.”
o “College campuses almost couldn’t be set up much worse for the coronavirus. They are built on the idea of lots of
people living and learning in close quarters and gathering in large groups — all measures that work against any social
distancing needed to fight the spread of the pandemic.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 4/21/20]
EDUCATION: “Desperate for fall enrollees, colleges are luring students with campus perks and cold cash.”
• “Free classes! Free parking! Prime dorm rooms! More cash! The more they worry about whether students in this year of the
coronavirus will show up in the fall, the more admissions officers responsible for filling seats at colleges and universities have
started sounding like the salesmen on late-night TV infomercials.”
17
o “But wait! There’s more! Put down a deposit and, at some schools, your tuition will never go up. Like to sleep in? Other
colleges will give you early registration privileges so you don’t get stuck with morning classes. Still others are throwing
in free food, free football tickets, even free books autographed by celebrity faculty members in residence.”
[The Washington Post, 4/23/20]
ENTERTAINMENT: “Disney Resort Opens with Green QR Code Checks In Shanghai.”
• “Shanghai Disney Resort is resuming partial operation with guests required to provide their green Shanghai QR Code, indicating
they have been cleared not to have COVID-19. While Shanghai Disneyland remains temporarily closed, Disneytown, Wishing
Star Park, Disney Car and Coach Park, Disney Parking Lot, and Shanghai Disneyland Hotel are resuming partial operation,
according to the announcement by Disney.”
o “A limited number of shopping, dining and recreational activities are starting with each resort location operating
under limited capacity and reduced hours of operation. Guests attending Disney Resort will be required to undergo
temperature screenings and wear masks during their entire visit.”
[Mediapost, 4/23/20]
ENTERTAINMENT: “Musicians Turn to Streaming Concerts from Home to Pay the Bills.”
• “The coronavirus pandemic has shut down the live-music business. Promoters, venues and musicians around the world have
postponed or canceled more than 50,000 shows, from coffee house appearances, to Coachella, the unofficial start of the
summer festival season. At least $2.8 billion in ticket sales will be gone for good if there are no shows in the second quarter,
estimates Pollstar, the industry’s leading trade publication. Pollstar says the lost ticket revenue could easily surpass $5 billion if
there are no shows until the fall, which promoters and agents are starting to concede appears likely, and that’s before
factoring in merchandise, advertising or alcohol.”
o “Miller is part of a stampede of professional musicians testing how much they can recoup with a livestreaming
performance model…Still, by streaming four days a week from his office, with each show tailored to a different set of
fans, he’s netted at least as much as he was going to make on the second leg of the trip. “Being able to do these
shows,” he says, “has been literally lifesaving.”
[Bloomberg Businessweek, 4/20/20]
ENTERTAINMENT: “Gaming Sales Are Up, but Production Is Down.”
• “Video games might seem to be the perfect business for this new reality in which most of the world has asked citizens to self-
isolate in hopes of combating the pandemic. Bored and restless at home, people are taking solace in games.”
o “Gaming is one of those areas that people are diverting to from other activities that they would have done in a normal
world,” said Mat Piscatella, an analyst at the NPD Group, which tracks the sales of video games. “The game sales that
are coming out are breaking franchise records.”
• “Yet video game developers, as well as the large corporations behind the gaming consoles, have faced challenges adapting to
a world in which offices and factories are closed and designers have children vying for their attention at home. Behind the
18
scenes, questions linger as to how to tackle a crisis that could last weeks or months − particularly for those making games and
gaming consoles that they hoped to release this year.”
[The New York Times, 4/21/20]
HOTELS: “Marriott to roll out a multipronged platform to elevate its cleanliness standards.”
• “Marriott, which has long had a reputation for high standards of hotel cleanliness with well-established cleaning processes and
training in place, has created the Marriott Global Cleanliness Council to tackle the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic at the
hotel level and further advance the company’s efforts in this area. The Marriott Global Cleanliness Council is focused on
developing the next level of global hospitality cleanliness standards, norms and behaviors that are designed to minimize risk
and enhance safety for consumers and Marriott associates alike.”
o “Marriott is rolling out enhanced technologies over the next few months, including electrostatic sprayers with hospital-
grade disinfectant to sanitize surfaces throughout the hotel. Electrostatic spraying technology uses the highest
classification of disinfectants recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World
Health Organization (WHO) to treat known pathogens. The sprayers rapidly clean and disinfect entire areas and can
be used in a hotel setting to clean and disinfect guest rooms, lobbies, gyms, and other public areas. In addition, the
company is testing ultraviolet light technology for sanitizing keys for guests and devices shared by associates.”
[4 Hoteliers, 4/22/20]
HOTELS: “Pay now, stay later: Hotels hit hard by coronavirus pandemic selling ‘bonds’ for future travel.”
• “Either closed down or operating with most of their rooms empty, hotels are finding ways to put cash in their pockets now for
services provided later, spawning some enticing deals for consumers.”
o “Take the 452-room hotel, LondonHouse Chicago. It’s offering “bonds” that people can buy in $100 increments. Once
those bonds mature after 60 days, they’re worth $150 — a quick 50% return on investment. When the coronavirus crisis
subsides and guests are ready to book, they can use the bonds to pay for everything from overnight stays to room
service and drinks at the hotel’s rooftop terrace overlooking the river.”
[Chicago Tribune, 4/20/20]
HOTELS: “Has Coronavirus Upended the Hotel Industry’s Main Performance Metric?”
• “Coronavirus has made such a dire impact on the travel industry that the world’s largest real estate services company turned
to an alternative method to measure a hotel’s performance.”
o “Travel analysts have traditionally tracked how well a specific hotel or market performs through RevPAR, or revenue
per available room. But revenue and occupancy levels sank to such historic lows in the first quarter due to coronavirus
that many properties have temporarily closed, and the traditional financial model isn’t fully conveying how hotels are
performing …”
§ “Until there is some level of normal revenue streams and staffing, CBRE is focusing on occupancy rates over
revenue.”
19
[Skift, 4/20/20]
MEDIA: “How viewer-starved sports networks are filling the coronavirus void.”
• “Virtual competitions, reruns of classic games and, most recently, sports documentaries are filling a void for both TV networks
and fans during the coronavirus pandemic.”
o “Without live sports, networks have had to get creative to fill their airwaves. Some experiments have worked (CBS'
Masters rewind drew 2.2 million viewers), some started off strong but have since lost steam (virtual racing), and others
have failed (ESPN's H-O-R-S-E challenge drew just 686,000 viewers).”
[Axios, 4/21/20]
MEDIA: “Digital media clobbered by coronavirus.”
• “The drastic measures at top digital media outlets serve as a stark reminder that few victims will be spared by the economic
crisis prompted by the coronavirus pandemic. Vice Media has laid out a plan for potential layoffs of over 300 people in digital
operations, according to The Wall Street Journal. It would be joining Group Nine Media, BuzzFeed, Vox Media, Bustle Digital
Group, Cheddar, Maven Media, G/O Media, Protocol, and others who have resorted to layoffs and furloughs.”
o “The economic crisis caused by the pandemic is different from previous recessions because it's likely to have a worse
impact on the ad industry and because it will hit other revenue that publishers rely on, including live events.”
[Axios, 4/22/20]
MEDIA: “Stuck at home with little to do, news consumers are surging toward hobbyist magazines.”
• “The COVID-19 pandemic and related recession have slashed the news industry, news magazines included. But hobbyist
magazines are sustaining, even thriving in some cases, as audiences look for advice and things to do at home.”
o “Health, food, and home and garden titles, among others, have seen an abundance of readers and social media
engagement since stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders swept across the country during the past month.”
[Poynter, 4/22/20]
RESTAURANTS: “America’s food supply chain moves backward.”
• “The whole country is eating every meal at home — and that’s triggering widespread shifts in the food supply chain.
Restaurants are turning into grocery stores and wholesalers and supermarket chains are functioning as grocery-pickers as
they adapt to America's new lifestyle.”
o “Eating and shopping for food are deeply ingrained habits, says John Stanton, a professor of food marketing at Saint
Joseph's University in Philadelphia. We tend to buy the same things every week — just as we keep going back to our
favorite restaurants to order 'the usual.' But a shock to the system like the coronavirus pandemic is quickly breaking us
of our old habits and forcing us to make new ones.”
[Axios, 4/21/20]
20
SOCIETY: “Why Most Post-Pandemic Predictions Will Be Totally Wrong.”
• “A deadly global pandemic is a self-evidently world-changing event. But world-changing how? While the coronavirus
nightmare is nowhere near resolution, we are awash in predictions about what will come next, how our professional and
business lives will be permanently altered, and how they will look a decade from now or beyond.”
o “That’s only natural, and in some ways, it’s necessary: We sense that things will never be the same, and thoughtful
speculation about the future helps us cope with the present — and, among other things, suss out economic perils and
opportunities. … Just keep one thing in mind about these predictions: Most of them will be wrong.”
[Marker, 4/19/20]
SOCIETY: “What Will Our New Normal Feel Like? Hints Are Beginning to Emerge.”
• “For all the attention to the science and politics of the coronavirus, another factor may be just as important in shaping life
under the pandemic: the ways that people will change in response to it.”
o “Research on the effects of epidemics and sieges, along with the emerging body of knowledge about the coronavirus,
hint at what the coming months may look like.”
o “Our ability to focus, to feel comfortable around others, even to think more than a few days into the future, may
diminish — with lasting consequences. But we may also feel the tug of a survival instinct that can activate during
periods of widespread peril: a desire to cope by looking out for one’s neighbors.”
[The New York Times, 4/21/20]
SOCIETY: “Zoom Parties Are So Five Weeks Ago: Hello, Virtual Reality.”
• “With coronavirus mitigation making gatherings and travel taboo, his company, Philadelphia-based Virtual Reality for Rent, is
staying afloat by filling the growing demand for entertainment beyond Netflix. He’s now mailing out about 60 VR Oculus
headsets (made by Facebook Inc.) a week to individuals, a seven-fold jump from before the outbreak. The technology allows
kids to visit carnivals, while 20-somethings can dance at a club with strangers from around the world.”
o “The tech industry has struggled for years to generate wider adoption of virtual reality. A major reason is that setting
up a high-end home experience still costs well above $1,000. But the prospect of millions staying home for months
during the pandemic and additional renting options might be just what it needed.”
[Bloomberg, 4/21/20]
SOCIETY: “The reason Zoom calls drain your energy.”
• “Your screen freezes. There’s a weird echo. A dozen heads stare at you. There are the work huddles, the one-on-one meetings
and then, once you’re done for the day, the hangouts with friends and family. Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, we’re on video
calls more than ever before − and many are finding it exhausting.”
o “Being on a video call requires more focus than a face-to-face chat, says Petriglieri. Video chats mean we need to
work harder to process nonverbal cues like facial expressions, the tone and pitch of the voice, and body language;
21
paying more attention to these consumes a lot of energy. “Our minds are together when our bodies feel we're not.
That dissonance, which causes people to have conflicting feelings, is exhausting. You cannot relax into the
conversation naturally,” he says.”
[BBC, 4/22/20]
SOCIETY: “Surprising Poll Results: People Are Now Happy to Pick Up the Phone.”
• “It was a straightforward telephone survey of New Yorkers, a series of questions about the effects of the coronavirus crisis, and it
was meant to take just a few minutes. But a strange thing kept happening. Many of the people who answered the phone
wanted to keep talking — about their loneliness, about their sadness, about their fears for the future — even after the questions
had stopped.”
o “As the coronavirus has swept across the country, it has stolen millions of jobs and thrust people everywhere into
acute financial insecurity. It has also forced the majority of the population to shelter in place. But in an industry where
rejection is a normal part of a day’s work, pollsters are finding that many people are suddenly willing, even grateful, to
talk. In some cases, they're treating the anonymous questioners as lifelines to the world, almost as therapists, in the
absence of other people to talk to.”
[The New York Times, 4/17/20]
SPORTS: “Another hurdle in MLB’s empty ballpark plan: How much to pay players.”
• “When Major League Baseball and its players’ union reached agreement on a modified economic deal last month —
completing it on the very day the season was supposed to have begun — it was taken as a sign of goodwill between sides that
are typically at odds and a statement of shared purpose as the sport plotted a way forward through the novel coronavirus
pandemic.”
o “But now that goodwill is in danger of being squandered over the issue of how players should be paid for games
without fans. And even as the sport navigates massive hurdles in its quest to start the 2020 season, which would
almost certainly be played at neutral sites in empty stadiums, at least in the early stages, the widening rift with the
union presents another unforeseen one with the power to scuttle the entire plan.”
[The Washington Post, 4/21/20]
TRANSPORTATION: “Uber Rideshare Revenue Ticking Upward After Dramatic Fall.”
• “If you are desperate for any glimmers of hope despite much of the economy tanking, then consider that Uber’s rideshare
revenue in the United States increased an estimated 52% last week compared with a week earlier.”
o “Superfly Insights CEO, Jonathan Meiri, said it wouldn’t be prudent to overplay the significance of a two-week trend,
adding that it would take many weeks of 50% growth for Uber rideshare revenue to recover to a peak in the last week
of February.”
o “Uber was the canary in the coal mine for entering COVID-19 and the financial collapse that ensued,” Meiri said. “Like
the infamous Big Mac Index, Uber data showed how hundreds of cities are shutting down. Two weeks of growth from
22
such a small base is a very, very early signal for anything, but I think it is safe to say that people are starting to come
out of the woodwork.”
[Skift, 4/20/20]
TRAVEL/TOURISM: “Business Travel Has Stopped. No One Knows When It Will Come Back.”
• “Business travel worldwide has basically come to a standstill in the coronavirus pandemic. When it will come back, and in what
form, is anybody’s guess.”
o “Business travel won’t come back before we hear from public health officials that it’s safe to travel,” Mr. Harteveldt said.
“Once we hit the point where the virus is contained and, hopefully, treatment is available, I believe business travel will
start to resume, assuming the economy hasn’t gone into a deep recession or, worse, a depression.”
[The New York Times, 4/20/20]
TRAVEL/TOURISM: “Richard Branson Fights to Save Travel, Tourism Empire.”
• “Mr. Branson, 69 years old, became one of Britain’s best-known billionaires by putting his Virgin brand on an array of businesses,
including planes and trains, cola and bridal gowns, often taking an equity stake and licensing fees in exchange. Several of his
biggest forays are focused on travel and tourism. Amid the new coronavirus pandemic, he now finds himself at the epicenter of
the meltdown in those industries.”
o “This week, Mr. Branson said he planned to borrow money against his private island in the British Virgin Islands to save
jobs at his portfolio companies. He bought the island when he was 29.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 4/21/20]
TRAVEL/TOURISM: “Expedia Nears Deal to Sell Stake to Silver Lake and Apollo.”
• “Expedia Group Inc. is in advanced talks to sell a stake to private-equity firms Silver Lake and Apollo Global Management Inc.
after the widespread travel bans caused by the coronavirus pandemic ravaged the online-booking company’s business.”
o “The talks could still fall through, and Expedia could opt to raise funds another way, including in a public-debt offering,
the people cautioned. The cash could tide the Seattle company over until travel restrictions are lifted and the
economy can recover from its steep drop-off.”
[The Wall Street Journal, 4/21/20]