Regional Air Power Development and RAAF Force Structure Options

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Invited Lecture, Royal Aeronautical Society, Canberra, August 14, 2001

A8−312

Regional Air Power Development and RAAF Force Structure Options Carlo Kopp, BE(Hons), MSc, PhD, PEng Defence Analyst & Consulting Engineer, Email: [email protected]

c 2001, Carlo Kopp 2/37

Regional Proliferation

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Su-30MKI & Su-30MKK Flanker

Sukhoi Su−30MKK PLA−AF

Sukhoi Su−30K/MK/MKI IAF 24SQN SB 007 AWK

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NIIP N-011M Phased Array

• NIIP’s phased array has a 1 metre diameter and was designed for the Su-35 and Indian Su-30MKI (NIIP Photo).

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Vympel R-73 Archer & R-77 Adder

Vympel R−77 RVV−AE (AA−12 Adder)

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Tu-22M-3 Backﬁre C

Tupolev Tu−22M−3 Backfire C Strategic Bomber

3M−54E1 Alfa Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (TBD)

3M−14E Alfa Land Attack Cruise Missile (TBD)

3M−54E Alfa Mach 2.9 Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (TBD)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (1 x C/L, 2 x Pylon)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Land Attack Cruise Missile (1 x C/L, 2 x Pylon) Kh−31R (AS−17) Anti−Radiation Missile (TBD)

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Tupolev Tu-142M Bear F Upgrades

Tu−142M Bear F Internal: ASM Loadout Growth Options 6 x Kh−35 (AS−20) 4−6 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa) 6 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa) Bear H−16 Pylon Configuration Bear G Pylon Configuration

External: External: 2 x Kh−22M (AS−4 Kitchen) 2 x Kh−22M (AS−4 Kitchen) 2 x KSR−5 (AS−6 Kingfish) 2 x KSR−5 (AS−6 Kingfish) 6 x 3K−55 (SS−N−26 Yakhont) 2 x 3K−55 (SS−N−26 Yakhont) 6 x Kh−41 (SS−N−22 Sunburn) Bomb Bay 2 x Kh−41 (SS−N−22 Sunburn) 10 x Kh−35 (AS−20) MKU−5−6 4 x Kh−35 (AS−20) 10 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa) Launcher 4 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa) 10 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa) 4−6 x ASM 4 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa)

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Russian Cruise Missiles

BGM−109C/D Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (~600 NMI Range Subsonic)

3M−54E1 Alfa Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (~160 NMI Range Subsonic)

3M−14E Alfa Land Attack Cruise Missile (~160 NMI Range Subsonic)

3M−54E Alfa Mach 2.9 Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (~120 NMI Range Subsonic Cruise)

3M−54/3M−14 0.533 Tube Launched From Kilo SSK (or FFG/DDG VLS) Air Launched Version for Su−30MK, Su−32FN, Tu−142M (TBD)

(c) 2000, Carlo Kopp. Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (220−270 NMI Range Mach 3) (c) 2000, Carlo Kopp. Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Land Attack Cruise Missile (220−270 NMI Range Mach 3) Kh−22/Kh−22M carried by Tu−22M−2/Tu−22M−3 Backfire B/C, Tu−95K−22 Bear G

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Beriev A-50/A-50E/A-50I AWACS

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The Project 1143 Aircraft Carrier

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Regional Power Projection Radii

100 120 Su−27SK/30MKK Flanker Combat Radius − No AAR Andaman Islands

Straits of Malacca Butterworth Su−30MKI Flanker Su−27SK/30MKK Flanker Combat Radius Kuala Lumpur Combat Radius 2 x AAR Singapore 0 Pekanbaru 0 Palembang

Halim Surabaya Sunda Straits Iswahyudi Su−30MKI Flanker Christmas Combat Radius 2 x AAR Island

Cocos Darwin Islands Tindal

Curtin Tu−22M3 20S (Hainan−Dao) Tu−22M3 Backfire Combat Radius − Iswahjudi/Halim FOB Kh−22M ASM 20S Combat Radius − Hainan−Dao FOB Learmonth Combat Radius − Port Blair FOB Tu−142M Bear F 100 120 Regional Striking Radii (FOB Andaman Islands, Hainan Dao, Java)

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Vulnerability of Pilbara/Timor Sea

Sumba Timor Zone of Cooperation Greater Sunrise

114° 116° 118° 120° 122° 126° Kelp 128° Sawu Buller Jahal LaminariaElang/Kakatua Evans Shoal INDIAN Roti Buffalo Laminaria Buffalo Hingkip Chuditch Territory of Ashmore and Bayu−Undan Bluff Krill OCEAN Cartier Islands (N.T.) Oliver Tenacious 12° Maple Jabiru Swan Challis Skua Puffin Talbot Montara Petrel Petrel Tahbilk Tern Tern Sparkle Cornea 500 NMI Cornea Scott Reef Brewster 14° 14° Brecknock Gwydion Barnett

400 NMI WYNDHAM

16° 16°

300 NMI RAAF CURTIN DERBY LloydWest Terrace Blina Boundary BROOME SHELF Sundown 18° 18° 200 NMI WEST North Rankin WestLambert/Hermes North Rankin Cossack EXMOUTH Goodwyn WanaeaNORTH Scarborough Wandoo 20° 20° Stag PLATEAU Gorgon SinbadCampbell PORT HEDLAND AlkimosHarriet East SparRosetteTanamiDAMPIER BARROW ISLANDBarrow Island KARRATHA ChinookSouth Pepper GriffinScindianNorth Herald Crest Chervil YammaderrySaladin Macedon Cowle RollerSkate NORTH WEST CAPETubridgi 22° 22° RAAF LEARMONTH NEWMAN GAS DISCOVERIES 200 km OIL DISCOVERIESNORTH WEST SHELF AND TIMOR SEA AIR DEFENCE ENVIRONMENT AWH8 200 NMI RANGE CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH FOOTPRINT 3M−54E/3M−14E (SUB) LAUNCH FOOTPRINT 300 NMI RANGE CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH FOOTPRINT RAAF FIGHTER OPERATING RADIUS

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Force Structure Responses for the ADF

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Defence 2000 White Paper - OCA/DCA 8.39 ‘... Australia must have the capability to protect itself from air attack, and control our approaches to ensure that we can operate eﬀectively against any hostile forces approaching Australia.’ 8.42 ‘This is critical for covering our extended maritime approaches, including oﬀshore territories such as the Christmas and Cocos (Keel- ing) Islands, and for providing air support to surface ship deploy- ments including amphibious task forces and land forces deployed in our immediate neighbourhood.’

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Defence 2000 White Paper - Strike 8.47 ‘... five new generation AAR aircraft, which would have the capacity to refuel not only our F/A-18 aircraft but also our F-111 and AEW&C aircraft over a wide area of operations.’ ‘These aircraft will also provide a substantial air cargo capability, ...’ 8.71 ‘... that we have the capability to contribute to the defence of Aus- tralia by attacking military targets within a wide radius of Australia, against credible levels of air defences ...’ ‘...our capability would be focussed on an ability to attack those militarily significant targets that might be used to mount or support an attack on Australia.’ ‘... have the capacity to mount sustained strike campaigns against a significant number of such targets.’

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Oﬀensive/Defensive Counter Air

AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING & CONTROL LONG RANGE SURVEILLANCE (JORN)

SUPERIOR ELECTRONIC COMBAT SUPERIOR PILOTS SUPERIOR FIGHTERS SUPERIOR TACTICS AERIAL REFUELLING SUPERIOR RADAR SUPERIOR DOCTRINE SUPERIOR MISSILES

COUNTER−AIR AIRFIELD TARGETING & STRIKE ACHIEVING AND MAINTAINING AIR SUPERIORITY

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Maritime, Strategic & Battleﬁeld Strike

STRATEGIC RECONNAISSANCE & TARGETING LONG RANGE SURVEILLANCE (JORN)

STRIKE FIGHTERS SUPERIOR PILOTS PRECISION MUNITIONS SUPERIOR TACTICS AERIAL REFUELLING DEFENSIVE JAMMERS SUPERIOR DOCTRINE

SUPERIOR ELECTRONIC COMBAT FIGHTER ESCORT, AEW&C DEFENCE SUPPRESSION CAPABILITIES FOR DETERRENCE, STRATEGIC AND MARITIME STRIKE

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AIR 5402 - What are the Issues? 1. Tanker extended range/long duration over-water operations? 2. Tanker aircrew numbers? 3. Tanker offload performance for a small fleet? 4. Tanker dash speed? 5. Tanker airlift capacity? 6. Airfield fuel replenishment capacity? 7. Airfield runway strength? 8. Tanker fleet funding models? 9. Available flight tested conversions 2001-2005?

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Heavy Tankers vs Medium Tankers

With tanker numbers capped to 5 aircraft, White Paper capability goals will be diﬃcult to meet with medium sized tankers.

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Electronic Combat - Support Jammers

• 32 EF-111A aircraft mothballed at AMARC since 1998. • ALQ-99E Tactical Jamming System with up to 10 jammer modules. • Retains supersonic performance and combat radius of F-111C/G. • TF30-P-109 engines, DFCS and AMP avionics common to F-111C/G. • ALQ-99 ICAP-III includes jamming, ELS and HARM capability.

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AIR 6000 Issues

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Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

Size Comparison− Su−30MK, F/A−18A and F−111C

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Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

Combat Radius Combat Radar (Clean) Thrust/Weight Aperture (Clean in Reheat) Comparison of Su−27/30 vs F/A−18A

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Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

R−73M 20 NMI Range 25 Degrees Off Boresight 180 Degrees Off Boresight > 60 Degrees AIM−9M AIM−132 Off Boresight Sidewinder ASRAAM R−73 16.2 NMI Range 6.5 NMI Range >25 NMI Range > 45 Degrees Off Boresight

1999 2002 AAM Cued by HMS AAM Cued by Radar AAM Cued by HMD Comparison of Close−in Combat Capabilities Pre and Post HUG / AIR 5400

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Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

Active Radar Active Radar Semi−Active Radar Active Radar R−77 R−77M AIM−7M AIM−120B AA−12 Adder Ramjet Adder Sparrow AMRAAM ~48.6 NMI Range ~86.5 NMI Range ~24 NMI Range >30 NMI Range

2003−2005

APG−65 Radar APG−73 Radar Planar Antenna Planar Antenna N−011 Radar N−011M Radar Planar Antenna Phased Array 1999 2005 Comparison of Beyond Visual Range Combat Capabilities Pre and Post HUG / AIR 5400

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Regional Proliferation vs AIR 6000 • The clear priority in A6K should be the replacement of the F/A-18A as its small size makes it ill suited to long range combat. • Conversely, the F-111’s 34,000 lb internal fuel capacity makes life extension attractive, against replacement with a smaller fighter. • Combat radius performance and agility in long range combat configuration should be a high priority. • Radar aperture size and missile load in BVR combat and bomber cruise/missile intercept roles should be a high priority. • The growth potential of the Su-27/30 BVR suite and S-300/400 family SAMs makes stealth capability a high priority. • Robust supersonic cruise is a force multiplier for a small fighter force.

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The F/A-18A Replacement?

In terms of lethality, productivity, size, growth potential and deterrent credibility, the F-22A has an unassailable lead over all other A6K alternatives. At a ﬂyaway cost ≈ 50% higher than older technology alternatives, the F-22 is not a ‘one-for-one’ replacement, despite claims otherwise.

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Implementation Strategies for AIR 6000 1. Write a new White Paper and pretend that 500 regional Su-27/30s do not matter! 2. Single type F/A-18A + F-111 replacement with F-22, accept a smaller force size against current force structure. 3. Two type F/A-18A + F-111 replacement with F-22 + ‘cheaper ﬁghter’, retain force size similar to current force structure. 4. Extend the life of the F-111 to 2040 and replace the F/A-18A with a smaller number of F-22s.

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Extending the F-111 to 2040 1. Apply structural fixes as per DSTO Sole Operator Program findings. 2. Replace honeycomb skins with CFC as per DSTO Sole Operator Program findings. 3. 2002-2004 replace analogue cockpit with AMLCD glass cockpit. 4. 2003-2006 replace analogue radar with digital solid state phased array. 5. 2015-2020 replace the TF30-P-109 with the F119-PW-100 series supercruising engine common to the F-22 (exploit A6K funding). 6. Adopt F-22 style internal weapon carriage to reduce RCS and exploit supercruising transit speeds, apply RCS reduction techniques. 7. 2015-2020 perform block upgrade of core avionics with F-22/JSF generation integrated avionic suite (exploit A6K funding).

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Example F-111C/G Glass Cockpit

FUSION DISPLAY (14−15"): SU−46 HUD OPTICS/MECHANICALS (F−111D) TJS Derived Threat Footprint Track/Target/Fuel/Time PRIMARY JTIDS Tracks ADI/HSI CMP Digital Moving Map

AMLCD RHAWS HUD CARA AUP MFD/ CONTROLS

1 2 3 10 ATTACK TFR/RADAR RADAR STDBY INST DISPLAY AMLCD MULTIFUNCTION PANEL IFI IFI AMLCD

XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX SENSORS/

100 800 103 20 52 FUSION 1 40 700 5 2 51 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 60 600 80 −33 N −3 0 50 200 500 TGT SCAI 1 UNK N SU30 −50 49 NSA11 400 WPT6

.5 SA10

¡ ¡ SENSOR −10 250 48 SENS 2992 49400 E COMMAND WPT6 CONTROLS G MACH KNOTS SA2 1.0 .45 130 UNK

FF 0900 FF 0900 F18 £ WFS ¢ N L PR R PR 3 090 RPM 85% RPM 85% 33 000 000 COURSE MILES 6 30 L OIL R OIL

TIT 018 TIT 018 E 000 000 W

12 PRI FQTY

NOZ 001 NOZ 001 15 000 000 21 S W UTL T/S GR 000 000 ARS AMLCD PAVE EPR 001 EPR 001 ENG MIDS A/G A/A MAP FUS

S BOMB/NAV/STATUS AUP TACK ENG MIDS A/G A/A MAP FUS MFD STATUS STATUS AUX PANEL PANEL AMLCD MULTIFUNCTION PANEL ECM WEPS TACAN DESIGNATION CURSOR CSPI CONTROL (F−111D) Cockpit Layout (c) 2001, Carlo Kopp SU−46 HUD OPTICS/MECHANICALS AND PILOT DCC ADAPTED FROM EXISTING F−111D HARDWARE F/RF−111C/G Digital Glass Cockpit

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Example Low RCS AESA Installation

~ 740 x 480 Truncated ESA FEB ARS Rack − Available for Redundant Channel

APG−80 LRU Rack (Not Drawn)

Internal Mounting Frame (Not Drawn)

APG−80 ESA

Faceted Antenna Shroud (8 Faces) RAM Tiles (ESA tilt angle optimised for A/A uplook into turn as a primary requirement) APG−80 Installation − F−111C/G AUP

A8−271

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F119-PW-100 Supercruise Engine

6.0−8.0 inch offset Upper Rim Clearance Upper Clearance Line of F−111 Forward Engine Bay 1.3 inch Forward Tailboom Support Crossover Point

0.0−0.3 inch centreline offset TF30 Rim I.D. = 36.6 inch TF30 Rim O.D. = 37.4 inch Forward Engine Bay Bulkhead

Forward Engine Bay Lower Clearance Line

1. F-111 swing wing and internal bomb bay allows exploitation of F-22 engine technology, possibly doubling transit speed and optempo. 2. F119 more durable and cheaper to operate than current F100/F110 thus reducing long term ownership cost. 3. Reduce inlet integration costs by leveraging NASA/USAF IPCS F- 111E FADEC ﬂight test results.

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F119-PW-100 Supercruise Engine

F−111F A/B RATING

Sustained Speed (Dry) Military Thrust Afterburning Thrust (Internal Weapons) (Static SL) (Static SL) Comparison of F/RF−111C/G TF30−PW−108/9 vs F119−PW−10X (c) 2001, Carlo Kopp Nominal Thrust Ratings Only − Assumes Inlet Massflow Allows Full F119 Thrust Rating

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Supercruising ‘F-111S’ 1. F119 engine, internal weapons, phased array radar, glass cockpit and RCS reduction => ‘Ersatz F-22’ for lower threat environments. 2. With AMRAAM and supercruise provides a credible capability for long range bomber/cruise missile intercept, in addition to existing strike roles. 3. Incremental block upgrades avoid ‘spikes’ in funding profile - bone- yard F-111s are cheaper than any new fighter. 4. High return on existing RAAF investments in infrastructure and per- sonnel. 5. Domestic upgrade program keeps funding in Australia. 6. Risks confined mostly to aspects of engine integration program and weapon clearances.

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Force Structure Alternatives

STRIKE ASSETS COUNTER AIR ASSETS

F/A−18 REPLACEMENT BY 18 x F−22, LIFE EXTENDED 54 x F−111S ‘LIGHT’ FORCE STRUCTURE MODEL ALL FIGHTERS WITH SUPERCRUISING POWERPLANTS, F−111S WITH AESA/AMRAAM

STRIKE ASSETS COUNTER AIR ASSETS F/A−18 REPLACEMENT BY 36 x F−22, LIFE EXTENDED 54 x F−111S ‘BALANCED’ FORCE STRUCTURE MODEL ALL FIGHTERS WITH SUPERCRUISING POWERPLANTS, F−111S WITH AESA/AMRAAM (c) 2001, Carlo Kopp

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Conclusions 1. Implementing the White Paper capability goals will present serious funding challenges over the new two decades. 2. Aerial refuelling, electronic combat and ﬁghter capabilities should be implemented robustly, in addition to Wedgetail and Global Hawk. 3. Funding pressures indicate that ‘lateral’ rather than ‘conventional’ solutions may be the only aﬀordable answers.

4. Single type A6K solutions may not provide a good balance in capability vs numbers. 5. Life extension of the F-111, leveraging F-22/JSF generation technology, should be seriously explored as an A6K option. 6. Orthodox strategies in system acquisition may become an unaﬀord- able luxury.

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End Presentation