Quarter Security Report
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Security Report April - June 2016 CRSS Quarterly Security Report – Q2, 2016 Introduction The upsurge in violence recorded during last quarter (January - March, 2016) dropped significantly during this reporting period (April - June, 2016). That being said, the militants, the noose ever-tightening around them, appear to have made a strategic shift in terms of areas of operation and targets. Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif declared that the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb was over, as the most dreaded areas in North Waziristan had been cleared. The military operation carried out in the riverine areas of the South Punjab also ended during this quarter with successful clearance of the area from the notorious gangster Chotu Mazari and his associates. Other than these successes in the war on terror, a few high profile incidents of violence shocked the country. One of them was the brazen assassination of the popular Qawal, Amjad Sabri, during the holy month of Ramazan at one of the busiest locales in Karachi. This also caused concern about the presence of fully operations criminal elements in urban centers. To assess and evaluate what new challenges and threats are being faced by the country, this report makes use of the national print and electronic media sources. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and omissions, which are always a possibility in such statistical works. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report. Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may send your queries to [email protected], directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of the report ([email protected]), or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow ([email protected]) – the editor. Table of Contents CRSS Quarterly Security Report – Q2, 2016 .........................................................................................1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 2 List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Security Report – Q2, 2016 .................................................................................................................4 Fatalities from Violence ........................................................................................................................... 4 Balochistan ................................................................................................................................................ 9 FATA ........................................................................................................................................................ 13 Khyber Pukhtunkhwa .............................................................................................................................. 16 Punjab ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Sindh ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 AJK, GB, and Islamabad ........................................................................................................................... 29 Sectarian Violence................................................................................................................................... 30 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 31 List of Acronyms # Acronyms 1 COAS Chief of Army Staff 2 NWA North Waziristan 3 FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas 4 AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir 5 GB Gilgit Baltistan 6 IED Improvised Explosive Device 7 LEA Law Enforcement Agency 8 US United States 9 PAF Pakistan Air Force 10 KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 11 ANP Awami National Party 12 NCs Non Combatants 13 RAW Research and Analysis Wing 14 LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi 15 TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan 16 AQIS Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent 17 CRSS Center for Research & Security Studies Security Report – Q2, 2016 Fatalities from Violence There were 788 casualties of violence (545 dead and 243 injured) during the 2nd Quarter of 2016 (April- June, 2016). The FATA and Sindh regions, for the first time in last three years, recorded a lower number of fatalities than in Balochistan (table 01). Within this year, as many as 58 Pakistani militants, hiding in Afghanistan because of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, have been targeted by drone attacks. Coincidentally, Pakistani militants were not the only ones who were found and targeted in a foreign country. A high profile Afghan militant, Mullah Akhtar Mansur, Chief of Afghan Taliban, carrying Pakistani identification documents, was targeted by a drone strike while he was entering Pakistan from Iranian border in Balochistan. Table 01: Casualties from violence by region – Q2, 2016 Total Region Fatalities Injuries Casualties FATA 62 18 80 Sindh 138 30 168 Balochistan 166 74 240 KP 92 104 196 Punjab 78 17 95 Islamabad 0 0 0 GB 0 0 0 Outside Pakistan (Syria/Afghanistan) 9 0 9 AJK 0 0 0 Total 545 243 788 Nearly 40% reduction in violence was observed throughout the country during the 2nd Quarter of 2016 (April – June 2016). The highest reduction in violence was noted in FATA as the military operation reached its logical conclusion. Punjab also had a significant reduction in violence (table 02). Table 02: Fatalities from violence in provinces – Percentages – Q2, 2016 % Region Q1 Q2 Reduction FATA 244 62 74.6% Sindh 152 138 9.2% Balochistan 181 166 8.3% KP 126 92 27.0% Punjab 163 78 52.1% Islamabad 0 0 0.0% GB 5 0 100.0% Outside Pakistan (Syria/Afghanistan) 9 0 100.0% AJK 0 0 0.0% Total 872 536 38.5% 269 militants and 270 non-combatants (including security officials) lost their lives during this (table 03). This is a significant drop from the previous quarter. Unfortunately, the largest group of victims of violence among the non-combatants were civilians (172), followed by security officials (72) and others. Out of 72 security officials who lost their lives in violence during this quarter, 46 were the policemen which is more than 60% of the total fatalities of security officials during this period. Seven of these policemen lost their lives while they were providing security to polio teams. Table 03: Fatalities by type of victims – Q1 vs. Q2, 2016 Combatants Victims Q1 Q2 Militants 671 335 Criminals 158 96 Insurgents 35 44 Non-Combatants (incl. Security Officials) Victims Q1 Q2 Civilians 264 172 Security officials 103 72 Government officials 17 2 Politicians 7 24 Media personnel 3 0 Religious party 1 0 Religious person 1 0 Total 872 539 Militant attacks and target killings continued to show a significant reduction during this quarter (table 04). However, the victims of terrorism went up significantly during this quarter. Accidental explosions also killed 7 persons who were carrying explosives. The slowdown in security operations also brought down the number of fatalities. The incidents of robbery-related fatalities have also dropped significantly during this period (table 04). Although the fatalities from encounters with LEAs dropped from 191 in last quarter to 155 during this quarter, these encounters still remained to be the highest causes of fatalities during this period. The highest decline was observed in suicide bombing incidents. Only 3 persons were the victims of suicide attack as against 125 fatalities counted last quarter. All other forms of violence also reflected a decline in the number of fatalities (Table 04). Table 04: Comparative data on violence and counter violence – Q2, 2016 Method of Violence Q1 Q2 Security operations 436 250 Militant attacks 187 36 Target killings 137 88 Other terrorism 39 115 Drone attacks 34 2 Robberies 21 10 Others 18 35 Total 872 536 A very few militant groups claimed responsibility of terror attacks that were carried out in the country (table 05). From the table below, it is evident that the militants groups either elected to make no claims or they are no longer in a position to carry out the type of violence that legitimizes them. Whatever the reason, the sharp decline in militants’ claim of violence is a good sign of an improved security situation in the country. Table 05: Claimants of terror attacks - Q1, 2016 Claimants Balochistan FATA KP Punjab Sindh Total TTP - JA 0 4 1 0 7 12 TTP 0 2 2 0 2 6 TTP - Hakeemullah 0 0 0 0 2 2 Chotu Mazari gang 0 0 0 10 0 10 Total 0 6 3 10 11 30 Balochistan Compared to other provinces, the fatalities from violence in Balochistan witnessed a marginal drop during this quarter. From 181 fatalities last quarter, the figure came down to 166, a near 10% reduction (table B1). Among all provinces, the province of Balochistan had the highest number of fatalities from violence during this quarter (table 01). A US drone attack targeted Afghan Taliban’s leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, in a remote area close to the Iranian border. A month before his death, reports were appearing in the press that he was