UKRAINE ROAD SECTOR INVESTMENT PRIORITIZATION
DRAFT RESULTS (OCTOBER 2017) Scope of Study 2 Identification of short and medium to long-term priorities for the road sector
Long-term panning Short-term planning
Medium to long-term Strategy of Road Network Financial Data Development frameworks collection Based on: • International trade flows Corridors of • National trade flows and national and HDM-4 mobility international analysis • Capacity improvement needed importance • Strategic network • National connectivity
Road Sector Development Strategy Project Stages
• Data collection • Road network database • GIS analysis • HDM-4 analysis for ST priorities
• Include budget constraints Dec 2016/Jul Dec 2017
• Check traffic data with ongoing traffic counts 2017 Oct • Include financing framework • Analysis of international trade flows and national mobility • Assessment of medium to long-term priorities 2017 Nov
• Summary of short and long term priorities by key link • Project fiche for medium to long term priorities Road Network 5
Ukrainian Road Network, km
Territorial 25,545
Regional 10,090 / State Roads 9,308 49,117 National 4,830 / 4,165 Focus of the analysis
International 20,760 km 8,653 / 7,287
Local roads 119,900 Network traffic levels and condition, 2016
Road Network Condition
Traffic levels (Annual Average Daily Traffic – AADT)
(IRI, m/km) Short-Term Priorities Results of HDM4 analysis: unconstrained scenario Identification of Focus Network according to budget constrains
International corridors National connectivity links
Overlapping with: Big Data Analysis: - TEN-T - Go highway - CMU resolution Cooperation with Ukrainian largest mobile operator to - UAD international corridors identify main movement attraction and production zones - European routes (E40, 50, 85) - MoI priorities &
Network of Priority International & National Connectivity Links Priority ranking by economic criteria into 3 levels
II II III
III II II
I II II III I III I II III I III II I III II I III II I III III II
III III III I I II II 2018-2020 II
st I I - 1 priority level
nd II - 2 priority level
rd III - 3 priority level
Total Cost 1st level = 430 mi US$ Total Cost 2nd level= 540 mi US$ Total Cost 3rd level= 780 mi US$ Medium to long-term priorities Transport model for road network
Output Input ➢ Forecast of future road network load Current network data: ➢ Capacity constrains traffic & condition TRANSPORT (existing & future) (UAD) MODEL ➢ Scenario testing and estimate of network Origin- Destination impact (Kyivstar) ➢ Calculation of savings (time, VOC) for economic evaluation (EIRR) Transport model to test scenarios Potential capacity improvement projects by 2030
Roughness (IRI), 2016
Volume 2030/Capacity 2016
-potential projects Projects tested
Northern Rivne-Lviv bypass Lviv
Lviv-Krakovets Lviv- Ternopil Dnipro- Kharkiv-Izum Ternopi- Resetilovka Lviv-Chop Uman
Mykolaiv- Chernivtsi-Rivne Kirovohrad Melitopol- Ulyanovka Dnipro -Mykolaiv Dnipro- Mykolaiv Some model outputs (preliminary EIRR for selected projects)
Rivne-Lviv Lviv-Krakovets EIRR=9.5% EIRR=12%
BCP
Lviv-Chop EIRR=10%
BCP
Dnipro- Mykolaiv EIRR=26% Key conclusions and recommendations
1 Short term current and capital repairs sum up to 5.4 bi USD during 2018-2020
Out of this, 1.8 bi USD to the main national and international corridors should be 2 the key priorities
Many potentially good projects for capacity improvement – need for project 3 preparation as soon as possible to enable investments
New projects should incorporate mechanisms to avoid rapid deterioration 4 (maintenance contracts, weight control,..) Thank you!