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Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity

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Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity Annual Performance Report Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity FY 2020 Annual PROGRESS REPORT (1 October 2019 – 30 September 2020) Award No: AID-72014118C00005 Prepared for USAID/Ukraine C/O American Embassy 4 Igor Sikorsky St., Kyiv, Ukraine 04112 Prepared by: SSG Advisors, LLC (d/b/a Resonance) 1121 12th St. NW Washington, DC 20005 USA 1 Mill Street, Suite 200 Burlington, VT 05401 USA i Table of Contents I. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS iii II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 III. KEY NARRATIVE ACHIEVEMENT 3 Component A 3 Component B 6 Component C 7 Activity Management 7 IV. LESSONS LEARNED 7 Component A 7 Component B 8 Activity Management 8 V. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING 8 VI. PROGRESS ON LINKS TO OTHER ACTIVITIES 8 VII. PROGRESS ON LINKS TO HOST GOVERNMENT 8 VIII. PROGRESS ON INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT 8 IX. FINANCIAL INFORMATION 9 X. SUB-AWARD DETAILS 9 ANNEX I. Data Dive Example 10 ANNEX II. Key Findings from Annual Survey 12 ii I. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AFB Award Fee Board AMELP Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Plan ATO Anti-Terrorist Operation COR Contracting Officer’s Representative DQA Data Quality Assessment EG Economic Growth ERA Economic Resilience Activity ERA_AS Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity FY Fiscal Year GCA-D Government-controlled Donetsk Oblast GCA-L Government-controlled Luhansk Oblast IEE Initial Environmental Examination IDP Internally Displaced Persons KIIS Kyiv Institute for International Sociology LGBTIQ Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex and queer M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MEL Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning OEG Office of Economic Growth PWD Persons with disabilities SME Small and Medium Enterprises SoA Sea of Azov SOW Statement of Work USAID United States Agency for International Development iii II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Analytical Services in Support of the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA_AS) was awarded on August 20, 2018 to SSG Advisors, d/b/a Resonance. In the second year of implementation, Resonance continued its momentum from Year One and expanded services and approaches. What follows is a summary report of activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020 of Fiscal Year (FY) 2020. ERA_AS, an innovative, adaptive, and learning centric mechanism, provides support to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Ukraine’s Office of Economic Growth (OEG), specifically related to the implementation of the Economic Resilience Activity (ERA). ERA_AS’s Statement of Work (SOW) has three components: • Component A: Ongoing Monitoring and Evaluation of USAID ERA • Component B: Award Fee Implementation • Component C: Evaluation In Fiscal Year 2020, Resonance provided the following deliverables based on the ERA_AS Year Two workplan and Section F of the ERA_AS contract. Date of Deliverable Component Description of Deliverable Deliverable Submission An outline of the second-year tasks and Draft Year Two Admin deliverables and approach to September 13, 2019 Work Plan implementation. A brief summary report of the Activity’s progress against the work plan and anticipated results, covering the first year of First Annual Activity implementation (August 20, 2018 – Admin October 30, 2020 Progress Report September 30, 2018) * Annual report will cover the final quarter of the first year and 1 month of second project year to align with fiscal year A report that will present the methodology, Draft Annual A.1 data limitations, draft findings, and December 13, 2019 Study Report conclusions. A report that will present the methodology, January 27, 2020 Final Annual data limitations, final findings and (Word Version) A.1 Study Report conclusions, and address USAID comments on May 12, 2020 the draft. (InDesign Version) Second Award A brief report summarizing findings related Fee Assessment B to the second award fee evaluation factors November 7, 2019 Summary Report and criteria. Second Award A presentation that summarizes findings Fee Board (AFB) B related to the second award fee evaluation November 13, 2019 Meeting factors and criteria and Q&A with the AFB. Data Quality A report that summarizes findings and Assessment Admin recommendations for addressing any data December 12, 2020 (DQA) Report quality issues identified during the ERA DQA. 1 Short briefs focused on specific topics of Technical Briefs A.1 interest to USAID and ERA and based on data July 27, 2020 from the ERA_AS annual survey. Quarterly A summary of relevant findings from other Within 30 days of Literature/Data A.1 published research and data on eastern end of each quarter Reviews Ukraine and related to ERA objectives. A Sector Analysis of Agriculture, Economic Market Systems A.1 Resilience in Eastern Ukraine, Financial May 20, 2020 Assessment Services, and SME Competitiveness After discussions with the ERA_AS Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR), several adjustments to the original schedule of workplan deliverables were made. Please see these changes outlined below: • Due to COVID-19 restricting travel, the team was unable to hold an in-person learning event to present annual survey findings in April 2020 as expected. Instead, Resonance conducted a virtual presentation with ERA and USAID staff. • In discussions to refine the focus of the USAID learning event, it was requested by USAID/Ukraine OEG in April 2020, that Resonance facilitate a portfolio-level review of current USAID/Ukraine economic growth programming that supports small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development using a market systems lens. The purpose of this learning exercise was to capture lessons learned and increase understanding of sector challenges and constraints based on the knowledge and experiences of its current implementing partners. While Resonance had planned to support USAID/Ukraine OEG learning in the annual work plan, the actual task and resulting products and services were different than originally planned. Resonance was able to demonstrate flexibility and adaptability in responding to this request. In Year Three work plan, Resonance has included the possibility to future ad-hoc support that may be requested. During the second year of implementation, Resonance has refined and responded to its original suite of activities, refining processes, and introducing new products. Specifically, Resonance: • added a new region, the coastal area along the Sea of Azov (SoA), to the annual study. This increased the total sample size of the annual household survey from1,200 to 1,800 households, and from 400 to 600 businesses for the annual business survey. • provided final survey products in both English and Ukrainian, and using the Adobe InDesign publishing software. • delivered the second award fee assessment, conducting approximately 50 interviews of ERA Staff, staff from other activities, other donors and ERA beneficiaries. • provided supplemental analysis of the annual survey data through four data dives to further elaborate relevant findings in a more visual and succinct format. Please see Annex A for an example. • provided flexible and responsive service to adapt and pivot planned learning support and deliver an on-demand research product. Considering COVID-19, Resonance has responded to changing circumstances by drawing from its bench of Economic Growth and Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) 2 professionals. For example, the Resonance team adapted the data collection process for the Third Award Fee Assessment, underway at the end of FY20 and at the writing of this report, from in-person interviews to a complete virtual process. This approach has allowed us to expand the number of interviews conducted and tap into a larger assessment team of experts, translators, and note-takers to conduct over 90 interviews within six weeks— almost twice the number of interviews conducted in 2019. In short, during the second year of implementation, Resonance expanded the depth, quantity, and quality of services provided to USAID. With input from USAID/Ukraine, additional activities have been scoped for Year Three (FY 2020-2021) to support ongoing MEL and adaptive management of ERA. III. KEY NARRATIVE ACHIEVEMENT Component A Under Component A, Resonance’s mandate is to “Develop and Implement a Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for Measuring Economic Resilience Activity Progress” and “Advise USAID and Economic Resilience Activity Implementer to Finalize Economic Resilience Activity MEL Plan.” A.1 Develop and Implement Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for Measuring Economic Resilience Activity Progress Under this task, Resonance conducted the first annual survey, which builds off of the baseline survey conducted in Year One. Due to ERA’s strategic expansion into the Sea of Azov region, five additional rayons in two oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts were added to the survey sample. The study included a household-level survey of 1,800 individuals and a business-level survey of 600 businesses. There were a number of interesting findings and conclusions from this study. Key findings and conclusions include: • Unemployment—especially underemployment—trends in government-controlled Donetsk Oblast (GCA-D) have improved dramatically compared to baseline, driven primarily by increased numbers of workers in full-time positions (84.9 percent compared to 50.2 percent at baseline). • Conversely, unemployment rates rose almost five percent in government-controlled Luhansk Oblast (GCA-L), and almost 10 percent fewer
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