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First Call 22Mar21 India Equity Research March 22, 2021 FIRST CALL DAILY REPORT MARKETS Change in % Metals & Mining - Sector Update - Tangshan cuts may push up steel prices 21-Mar-21 1D 1M 1Y Media reports suggest local authorities in Tangshan have imposed a fresh set of Nifty 50 14,558 -1.1 -2.8 76.2 Nifty 200 7,583 -1.2 -2.6 76.7 production curbs on steel value chain until end-CY21 in order to reduce air pollution. Nifty 500 12,174 -1.2 -2.1 78.8 According to Mysteel consultancy, if the draft plan is adopted, pig iron production and iron ore demand would fall by 22mt and 35mt, respectively. Taken together with INDIA STOCK PERFORMANCE the possibility of export rebate cuts, we believe exports from China can reduce significantly, thereby supporting steel prices. 16,000 80,000 14,500 70,000 Dabur India - Company Update - Growing naturally 13,000 (x) 11,500 60,000 (x) We recently met Mr. Mohit Malhotra, CEO of Dabur India, to gain insights into the 10,000 50,000 company’s growth plans, product launches and strategy to counter competition, 8,500 7,000 40,000 among others. Highlights: i) The pandemic has brought in new consumers to the health portfolio. ii) The worst is behind for fruit juices and other segments squeezed Nifty Index MSCI EM Index - Local Currency (RHS) by the lockdown. iii) Strong focus on innovation (recent launches in PET bottle juices, health drops, health juices, Amla-plus juices, pickles and apple cider vinegar are all doing well). GLOBAL 21-Mar-21 1D 1M 1Y Avenue Supermarts - Company Update - Time to whet appetite for online Dow 32,862 -0.5 4.3 63.6 While DMart has taken incremental steps to ramp up online grocery, it still seems to China 3,432 -0.9 -7.1 27.0 be on the sidelines and contemplating its merit. Globally, evolution of offline leaders EM Index 1,347 0.3 -5.8 75.8 (SunArt, Walmart) points to the need to go omni. Accordingly, we believe, the best approach for DMart is to aggressively tap into India’s metro cities (~90% of market) UPCOMING EVENTS CALENDER since spreading itself thin would stretch breakeven (Link). Even so, DMart’s success Date Event (and peers’) relies a great deal on incumbents’ sane response. 22-Mar-21 GAIL(India)- Dividend 22-Mar-21 NMDC - Dividend 25-Mar-21 BPCL- Dividend MACRO Change in % 21-Mar-21 1D 1M 1Y Fx 72.6 -0.1 0.2 2.4 (INR/USD) !0-yr G-sec 6.2 -0.3 2.7 -0.5 Oil (USD) 68.3 -0.2 6.1 137.6 Explore: Sectoral Movements %Change Ticker 21-Mar-21 1 D 1 M 3 M 1 Y Nifty 14,558 -1.1 -2.8 5.8 76.2 Banking 38,136 -1.2 -5.4 8.4 66.4 Sales Traders Says Currency Conversations IT g t -1.2 -0.5 9.1 123.8 Pharmaceuticals 20,313 -3.1 -4.8 -5.4 78.2 Oil -1.8 -2.7 4.3 60.4 15,011 Power 2,451 -1.3 1.4 17.9 83.9 Auto 22,910 -0.8 -3.7 10.5 95.6 Bond Vectors Valuation Vista Metals 13,627 -0.2 6.4 19.8 139.9 Real Estate 2,635 -0.3 -4.8 10.0 80.0 FMCG 12,290 -1.6 0.1 -2.3 37.2 Edelweiss Research +91 22 4009 4400 [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited India Equity Research Metals & Mining March 19, 2021 METALS & MINING SECTOR UPDATE Tangshan cuts may push up steel prices Media reports suggest local authorities in Tangshan have imposed a fresh set of production curbs on steel value chain until end-CY21 in order to reduce air pollution. According to Mysteel consultancy, if the draft plan is adopted, pig iron production and iron ore demand would fall by 22mt and 35mt, respectively. Taken together with the possibility of export rebate cuts, we believe exports from China can reduce significantly, thereby supporting steel prices. We view the development as positive for steel prices as it comes in the traditionally strong demand period in China. All in all, we retain our positive view on ferrous space with Tata Steel (TP: INR770), SAIL (TP: INR85) and JSPL (TP: INR378) as our top picks. Tangshan production cuts – More severe than expected Many media reports suggest Tangshan’s local government has issued a notice calling upon seven steelmakers to cut production to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions over March 20 to June 30, and a 30% reduction over July 1 to December 31. Besides, another 16 steel mills are required to cut emissions by 30% from March 20 to December 31. The measures follow an investigation by the environment ministry that showed some steel companies had failed to adopt emergency pollution measures, including falsifying production records. If implemented, the plan might reduce pig iron ore production by 22mt and iron ore demand by 35mt. Regional prices might get a leg-up from reduced exports Steel price in China was up by CNY40–70/t to CNY4,990–5,050/t—the highest level since Jan-21. However, Dalian Iron ore Futures Index was down 3.4% as authorities are likely to target both sinter and coke plants in order to reduce the operating rate of blast furnaces—already down by 10.6% to 60.27% today compared with last week, as per Mysteel data. Furthermore, HRC and rebar inventories have slid 6.7% and 2.2%, respectively, vis-a-vis last week as demand picks up in the seasonally strong period. Hence, we expect export volumes to go down significantly from a normalised 50–55mt, tightening the regional supply and thereby pulling up prices. Outlook: Positive near-term outlook for steel prices We expect the potential production cut of 22mt in Tangshan (CY20 production: 144mt) to result in reduction in exports by 40–50%. That said, iron ore prices are expected to cool off slightly owing to lower demand and high inventory at ports (129mt). However, the price differential between grades are expected to widen as steelmakers in China are expected to use pellets and better quality ore in order to curtail emissions. All in all, we expect the proposals, if implemented, to keep prices elevated and sustain the current scarcity of steel even beyond Q2CY22. We maintain positive outlook on the ferrous space with a ‘BUY’ each on Tata Steel (TP: INR770; 5x Q1FY23E EBITDA), SAIL (TP: INR85; 5.5x Q1FY23E EBITDA) and JSPL (TP: INR378; 5.3x Q1FY23E EBITDA). Amit Dixit Meera Midha +91 (22) 6620 3160 +91 (22) 4088 5804 [email protected] [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited India Equity Research Consumer Staples March 19, 2021 DABUR INDIA COMPANY UPDATE KEY DATA Growing naturally Rating BUY Sector relative Outperformer Price (INR) 522 12 month price target (INR) 675 We recently met Mr. Mohit Malhotra, CEO of Dabur India, to gain Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 924/12.7 insights into the company’s growth plans, product launches and Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 32.1/18.1 What’s Changed strategy to counter competition, among others. Highlights: i) The Target Price ⚊ pandemic has brought in new consumers to the health portfolio. Rating/Risk Rating ⚊ ii) The worst is behind for fruit juices and other segments squeezed by INVESTMENT METRICS the lockdown. iii) Strong focus on innovation (recent launches in PET 45 bottle juices, health drops, health juices, Amla-plus juices, pickles and 30 apple cider vinegar are all doing well). 15 0 We believe Dabur is well placed to capitalise on consumers’ rising Sales Growth EPS Growth RoE PE (%) (%) (%) (x) preference for herbal and natural products given the environment, Consumer Staples DABUR IN Equity and remains a strong rural play. Retain ‘BUY’ with a TP of INR675. FINANCIALS (INR mn) Top issues that we delve into Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E 1. Is the worst behind for fruit juices, digestives, air fresheners and mosquito Revenue 87.0 97.1 109.3 119.7 repellents? EBITDA 17,924 20,676 23,708 25,983 2. Dabur has spent much higher than peers in terms of ad intensity. When will this Adjusted profit 15,479 17,946 21,099 23,633 Diluted EPS (INR) 8.7 10.1 11.9 13.3 cool off? EPS growth (%) 1.8 15.9 17.6 12.0 3. New players have entered Honey, Chyawanprash, Kadha, etc. How will Dabur, RoAE (%) 23.7 25.1 25.7 25.2 being the dominant leader, protect its turf? P/E (x) 59.9 51.6 43.9 39.2 4. Investors are concerned about the inflationary trend in raw materials. What is EV/EBITDA (x) 50.6 43.2 37.3 33.6 the outlook for raw materials and margins? Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 5. Will Dabur’s focus on market share continue? 6. As the fear of the pandemic reduces in the wake of vaccine rollout, what is the outlook for the healthcare segment? PRICE PERFORMANCE 7. Can the shift to naturals in toothpaste sustain given high base of past few years? 550 53,000 8. Can Dabur’s rural growth derail due to the cut announced in rural subsidies in 515 47,400 the Union Budget? 480 41,800 9.
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