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Dabur India (DIL) Witnessed Splendid Domestic Volume Growth of 16.8% Led by Immunity Boosting, Ayurveda & Naturals Product Portfolio

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Dabur India (DIL) Witnessed Splendid Domestic Volume Growth of 16.8% Led by Immunity Boosting, Ayurveda & Naturals Product Portfolio DaburTAT India (DABIND) CMP: | 514 Target: | 595 (16%) Target Period: 12 months BUY November 4, 2020 Strong tailwinds for health, ayurveda products… Dabur India (DIL) witnessed splendid domestic volume growth of 16.8% led by immunity boosting, ayurveda & naturals product portfolio. Consolidated revenue grew 13.7% led by strong 17.9% growth in India business. International business saw muted growth on account of sluggish sales in Particulars MENA region. DIL is one of the biggest beneficiary of increased health awareness in a post-Covid world. Chyawanprash, Honey, OTC & Ethical Particular (| crore) Amount products, oral care witnessed robust growth during the quarter. It was also Market Capitalization 90,319.2 Total Debt (FY20) 471.8 able to leverage the e-commerce channel with 200% growth. E-commerce Cash and Investments (FY20) 3,611.6 Update Result contributed 6% to sales. Given mixed trends in commodity prices, gross EV 87,179.4 margins stayed flat. However, cost rationalisation initiatives led to savings in 52 week H/L (|) 535 / 386 overhead & employee spends to sales by 163 bps & 30 bps, respectively. Equity capital 176.6 Contrary to the trend of low advertisement spend by other consumer Face value (|) 1.0 companies, the company increased ad spends by 40.2% (152 bps higher) to support growth for newly launched products. Led by higher operating profit, Key Highlights net profit grew 19.6% to | 482.9 crore. Health supplement growth of 70% & Robust demand in health, immunity products oral care growth of 24% pushed During the quarter, sales of health supplements, OTC, ethical saw 70.8%, overall domestic FMCG business 56.1% & 26.4% growth, respectively. Further, oral care & shampoo also growth of 19.8% witnessed 24.2% & 17.8% growth, respectively. The company continues to The company increased its ad-spends strengthen its market share in Chyawanprash (190 bps increase), toothpaste by ~150 bps to drive growth of newly (90 bps increase) and shampoo (80 bps increase). We believe growth in launched products health & immunity products is far more structural compared to hygiene or instant food products. The penetration levels of Chyawanprash & honey is Maintain BUY with revised target price ~4% & ~25%, respectively, which poses immense growth opportunity in of | 595/share both these categories. We believe its entire ayurveda, health & immunity portfolio would drive growth for the company in the next two to three years. Price Chart We expect 10.1% CAGR revenue growth for FY20-23E. Research Equity 600 14000 New products to get marketing support 500 12000 10000 DIL has launched many new products, variants in the last six months across 400 Retail 8000 categories. Savings from cost rationalisation measures would be pumped in 300 – 6000 for higher ad-spends to drive growth for new products. The company is 200 4000 looking to increase marketing spend from current 8% to 12% of sales in 100 2000 medium term. It is also utilising e-commerce channel effectively to launch 0 0 new products for test marketing. We believe despite rising ad-spends, Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-19 Mar-19 Mar-20 benign raw material cost (largely packaging cost) & cost rationalisation Mar-18 measures would be sufficient for uptick in operating margins in future. We expect 100 bps operating margin expansion in FY20-23E to 21.6% Dabur NIFTY Securities ICICI Valuation & Outlook Research Analyst With strong tailwind from health and immunity products, DIL got the new Sanjay Manyal structural growth levers. We believe the company would continue to witness [email protected] strong growth in the medium term from these trends. Moreover, benign commodity cost & savings programme leaves enough scope to increase margins over the long term. We expect the company to witness earnings CAGR of 12.8% over FY20-23E. We value the stock at 50x FY23 earnings for the target price of | 595/share and maintain BUY recommendation. Key Financial Summary Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY20-23E) Net Sales 8533.1 8703.6 9547.8 10617.5 11603.7 10.1% EBITDA 1739.6 1792.4 2016.9 2277.7 2505.0 11.8% EBITDA Margin % 20.4 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.6 Net Profit 1446.3 1447.9 1691.2 1893.4 2079.2 12.8% EPS (|) 8.19 8.19 9.57 10.71 11.77 P/E 62.8 62.8 53.7 48.0 43.7 RoNW % 25.7 21.9 22.3 22.7 22.9 RoCE (%) 29.6 26.1 25.9 26.7 27.1 s Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Dabur India ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis EESes Q2FY21 Q2FY21E Q2FY20 YoY (%) Q1FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Net sales grew 13.7% led by robust growth in India Net Sales 2,516.0 2,344.7 2,212.0 13.7 1,980.0 27.1 busiess. Immunity boosting, ayurveda, oral care categories witnessed significant demand tailwinds Gross margins remained flat given RM price Raw Material Expenses 1,235.9 1,115.6 1,088.5 13.5 1,001.6 23.4 movement was mixed Employee Expenses 267.3 242.7 241.5 10.7 223.8 19.4 The company increased its marketing spends during SG&A Expenses 202.2 164.9 144.2 40.2 145.6 38.8 the quarter to suppport new product & variant launches Other operating Expenses 241.3 259.2 248.2 -2.8 192.4 25.4 Operating profit grew by 16.3% led by strong sales EBITDA 569.4 573.7 489.5 16.3 416.6 36.7 growth EBITDA Margin (%) 22.6 24.4 22.1 50 bps 21.0 159 bps Operating margins expanded by 50 bps Depreciation 59.6 59.0 54.5 9.5 56.7 5.1 Interest 7.5 11.7 15.2 -50.9 7.8 -4.3 Other Income 87.6 62.3 81.8 7.1 71.8 22.0 Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 40.0 N.A. 0.0 N.A. PBT 589.9 553.9 461.6 27.8 423.8 39.2 Tax Outgo 106.7 110.8 58.2 83.4 82.5 29.3 The company witnessed splendid earnings growth PAT 482.9 443.1 403.6 19.6 341.3 41.5 during the quarter Key Metrics YoY growth (%) Strong volume growth on high base led by health & Domestiic Volume Growth 8.1 -9.7 16.5 immunity products Standalone sales growth 17.9 8.5 -8.4 MENA region sluggish sales impacted international Subsidiary's sales growth 8.3 -24.2 2.6 sales Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY19E FY21E FY22E FY23E (| Crore) Old Old New % change Old New % change New Comments We increase our sales estimates after the strong Q2 Sales 8,789.5 9,547.8 8.6 10,189.2 10,617.5 4.2 11604 results. We introduce FY23E numbers EBITDA 1830.5 2016.9 10.2 2137.8 2277.7 6.5 2505 EBITDA Margin-23 (%) bps 20.8 21.1 30 bps 21.0 21.5 47 bps 21.59 PAT 1557.2 1691.2 8.6 1812.1 1893.4 4.5 2079 EPS (|) 8.8 9.6 8.6 10.3 10.7 4.5 11.8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E Std. Sales (| crore) 5,609.1 6,273.2 6,309.8 7,073.5 7,895.7 8,609.7 6,389.4 7,549.1 We change our estimates after robust Q2 results Subs. Sales (| crore) 2,139.3 2,259.9 2,393.8 2,474.3 2,721.8 2,993.9 2,400.1 2,640.1 RM exp. To sales % 49.6 50.5 50.1 50.0 49.9 50.1 49.8 49.7 We increase ad-spend estimates as guided by Adex to sales % 7.8 7.1 8.0 8.2 8.5 9.3 8.0 7.8 company Interest Cost (| crore) 53.1 59.6 49.5 38.9 40.2 40.2 38.9 40.2 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Dabur India ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights DIL reported robust sales growth of 13.7% led by 19.8% growth in domestic FMCG business with 16.8% volume growth. International business grew 5.5% negatively impacted by 15% sales decline in MENA region Domestic sales were supported by splendid growth in healthcare portfolio. Health-supplements (Chyawanprash, honey and Dabur Glucose) witnessed 70.8% sales growth whereas OTC & ethical portfolio grew 39.8%. Digestive (Hajmola) saw muted growth given reduced out of home activity Within home & personal care segment (HPC), oral care sales grew 24.2%. The high growth was led by increasing conversion from white toothpaste to Ayurveda/Natural products. Ayurveda & Naturals constitute 27% of the toothpaste category. Skin & Saloon (including new Sanitisers products) grew 38.1% largely led by Dabur Sanitize & other personal & home hygiene products. Hair Care (Dabur Vatika) category declined 2.4% mainly due to 6.3% decline in hair oils but shampoo sales grew 17.8%. The decline in hair oil is mainly due to significant decline in CSD channels sales. Home care segment (Odonil) witnessed de-growth of 10.2% Foods products segment saw 3.8% decline mainly due to 4.8% decline in beverage category but culinary saw 12.1% growth. Beverage category was impacted by non-functioning of hotels, restaurants & café (HORECA) sales.
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