Model Portfolio update

September 2, 2016 LatestDeal Team Model – PortfolioAt Your Service

Large cap Midcap

Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) Auto 15.0 Aviation 6.0 Tata Motor DVR 4.0 Interglobe Aviation 6.0 Bosch 3.0 Auto 6.0 Maruti 5.0 6.0 3.0 BFSI 6.0 BFSI 25.0 Bajaj Finserve 6.0 HDFC Bank 8.0 Capital Goods 6.0 3.0 6.0 HDFC 8.0 Cement 6.0 6.0 Ramco Cement 6.0 Capital Goods 4.0 Consumer 30.0 L & T 4.0 Symphony 606.0 Cement 4.0 Supreme Ind 6.0 UltraTech Cement 4.0 Kansai Nerolac 6.0 FMCG/Consumer 18.0 Pidilite 6.0 5.0 Rallis 6.0 4.0 Infrastructure 8.0 5.0 NBCC 8.0 Nestle 4.0 IT 18. 0 Logistics 606.0 10.0 Container Corporation of India 6.0 TCS 8.0 Pharma 20.0 Media 2.0 6.0 Zee Entertainment 2.0 Torrent Pharma 6.0 Pharma 14.0 8.0 Lupin 6.0 Textile 6.0 DRddDr Reddys 505.0 Arvind 6.0 3.0 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 • Exclusion - ITC, and • Exclusion – Nestlé shifted to Large cap • Inclusion – Dabur, increased weight in Maruti, Marico, Bajaj Finance & • Inclusion - Biocon UltraTech. Also Nestlé transferred from Midcap to Large cap

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research *Diversified portfolio

- Combination of 70% large cap and 30% midcap portfolio OutperformanceDeal Team – At continues Your Service across all portfolios…

• Our indicative large cap equity model portfolio has continued to deliver an • In the large cap space, we continue to remain positive on auto, impressive return (inclusive of dividends) of 108.5% since its inception infrastructure & cement. Relative to the benchmark index, we are (June 21, 2011) vis-à-vis the index return of 62% during the same period, underweight on BFSI an outperformance of 47%. This validates our thesis of selecting • With the exclusion of Reliance Industries, we affirm our underweight companies with sound business fundamentals that form the core theme of stance on metals and oil & gas. With the recent cleanup drive in PSU our portfolio. Our midcap portfolio of 16 stocks outperformed the banks, we continue to believe the underperformance would continue. In benchmark by 2x (since June 2011), posting returns of 153.2%. Our the private banking space, we prefer large banks with a strong brand consistent outperformance demonstrates our superior stock ppgicking ability name and a pan-India retail presence. We remain overweight to neutral on asmarketsinthefirsthalfofCY17alignedtoourviewoffavourablerisk- pure play defensives (IT, FMCG) as secular earnings coupled with sector reward, good franchisee vs. reward-at-any-risk businesses. Some key rotation could lead to consolidation in near term valuations and offer stock performers of our portfolio are Bajaj Finance, Lupin, Axis Bank and HDFC specific opportunities. We remain positive on auto, pharma, capital goods Bank in the large cap portfolio while Natco Pharma, and and infrastructure UltraTech have delivered stupendous returns in the midcap portfolio • Among individual names, given the steep discount to historic valuations, • We continue to advocate the SIP mode of investment as the preferred we are strongly overweight on Infosys and TCS in the IT space. A revival mode of deployment given the current volatile market conditions. We in thecapexcyclecoupldled with lower itinterest ratescenariowould bfitbenefit highlight that the SIP return of our portfolio has consistently outperformed the BFSI and construction space (UltraTech, L&T, HDFC, HDFC Bank) the indices. This affirms our belief in the staggered and systematic House view on Index approach of investment amid market volatility • Following the subdued monsoon and weak global scenario, Sensex • The Q1FY17 performance of Sensex companies ex-banks & commodity earnings for two consecutive years remained subdued. However, a revival space (oil & gas, metals & mining) was robust on the topline front but of the same would lead the Sensex EPS to grow by 12% to | 1542 in largely flat on the profitability front. Total sales for Sensex companies rose FY17E and 18% to | 1816 in FY18E 10.6% YoY marking Q1FY17 as the second consecutive quarter of double digit topline growth, depicted a progressive up-tick in demand prospects. Strategy 2016 - Sensex & Nifty Target Furthermore, India’s manufacturing activity grew at the fastest clip in 13 2000 20.0% months in August with a PMI of 52.6, representing an eighth straight 17.8% month of expansion. Auto volumes for September continue to positively 1800 surprise indicating strong support from good monsoons and the Seventh 1600 12.1% Pay Commission 1400 10.0% 1200 • Given the last revamp in the portfolio, we have made minimal changes in the current edition, to capture the (|) 1000 800 1.2% market. Following the same, we have reshuffled the weights of some -0.4% 600 0.0% companies. Among large caps, we have increased the weight of Bajaj 400 Finance by 2%. We have also increase 200 and Marico by 1% each. Affirming our view on consumption demand, we 1359 1375 1542 1816 new opportunities available in the 0 -10.0% have added Dabur to our large cap portfolio. We believe that as the softness in commodities continues, oil & gas and metal sectors would FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E continue to remain under pressure Sensex EPS Growth (%) Reliance Industries from Large caps d the weight of Maruti, UltraTech

. Following this, we have exited PerformanceDeal Team –soAt far* Your … Service

Portfolio performance since inception Portfolio performance since last update (May 2016)

175 18 16.0 153.2 16 150 13.5 122.5 14 12.2 12.5 11.1 125 108.5 12 10.2 98.7 100 10

% 71.9 8 75 61.9 % 6 50 4 25 2 0 0 Large Cap Midcap Diversified Large Cap Midcap Diversified

Portfolio Benchmark Portfolio Benchmark

• The large cap equity model portfolio continued its outperformance vis-à- • Since the last update, our large cap portfolio outperformed the vis the index with 108.5% return since its inception (June 21, 2011) vis-à- benchmark index, generating a return of 11.1% compared to benchmark vis index return of 61.9% in the same period. Our sustained preference for return of 10.2%. The outperformance was mainly on the back of the high quality names has aided this outperformance on a consistent basis. positive performance of Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement Wecontinue to be rewarddded for our meticul ous approach tdtowardsstktock • However, our conservative stock selection in the midcap portfolio selection while we endeavour to emulate the broader index exhibited some resilience to the uptrend in markets. The portfolio • On the other hand, given the astute selection in the midcap portfolio, the marginally underperformed with a return of 13.5% compared to index outperformance in the same continues, with a return of 153.2% compared return of 16%. The portfolio was impacted by negative returns in to the midcap index return of 98.7% Interglobe Aviation and Symphony • Given the overall outperformance in both (large & midcap) portfolios, the diversified portfolio (combination of 70/30 ratio) has outperformed its benchmark indices

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research TopDeal movers* Team –soAt far… Your Service

Large cap Midcap Diversified

350 Gainers Gainers 200 Gainers 300 300 250 160 250 200

) 200

) 120 )) %% (

150 (% (% 150 80 100 100 50 40 50 0 0 0 Lupin Axis HDFC Tata UltraTech Natco Lupin Kansai Axis Indusind Bank* Bank Motors Cement Natco Kansai Indusind * Shree Pharma* Nerolac* Bank* Bank* DVR Pharma* Nerolac* Bank* Cement*

Large cap Midcap Diversified

Draggers Draggers Draggers 0 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -8 -10 -15(%) -16 -15 -20 (%) -25 (%) -20 -24 -30 * * * ol rg -25 * E* oo oo rr aa tt ara -32 St Ferr -30 Indi CAR Indig Cast

Cemen -40

United State Wipro Dr Heidelbe Spirits Bank of Ltd Reddys Tata Steel CARE* Dr Reddys Indigo* Star India Lab Ltd Lab Ferro*

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research , *Starred stocks have been included in the portfolio since the last rejig in July 2012/May, August ,DecemberDecember 2013/ April, June, December 2014/ May 2015/July 2015/October 2015. Rest all are since inception in June 2011 Performance*Deal Team – soAt farYour in SIPService mode …

14,000,000

12,000,000 0 0 0

10, 000, 000 00 00 00 8,000,000 6,300,0 6,300,0 6,300,0 | 6,000,000

4,000,000 12,578,252 9,407,318 8,977,767 8,644,387 ,215,992 ,794,445

2,,,000,000 77 66 0 Largecap Midcap Divesified Investment Value of Investment in Portfolio Value if invested in Benchmark

• Systematic investments at regular intervals in all our three portfolios have outperformed their respective benchmarks, acting as a perfect shield to the volatility encountered by the market last year • Assuming | 1,00,000 invested as SIP at the end of every month • Start date of SIP is June 30, 2011

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research What’sDeal Team in, what’s – At Yourout? Service

What' ssin? in?

Name Portfolio Weight Maruti Largecap Increased from 4% to 5% Bajjjaj Finance Larggpecap Increased from 4% to 6% UltraTech Cement Largecap Increased from 3% to 4% Marico Largecap Increased from 3% to 4% Nestle Shifted from Midcap to Largecap 4% Dabur Largecap 5% Biocon Midcap 8%

What's out ?

Name Portfolio Weight Reliance Industries Largecap 4% Wipro Largecap 3% ITC Largecap 7%

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research TheDeal story Team of the– At stocks… Your Service

Biocon (BIOCON) Dabur (DABIND) • Encouraging developments on the biosimilars front have demonstrated • Dabur India has a strong portfolio of brands that straddle across various their capability in this space. What has cemented Biocon’s position as the categories like foods, personal care, health supplements, home care and best placed candidate among Indian companies is the series of positive OTC products. Some of its prominent brands include Hajmola, Dabur outcomes from developed markets, like launch of Glargine in Japan, Chyawanprash, Honey, Real, Vatika, Amla, Fem, Gulabari, Odonil, presentation of Trastuzumab data to ASCO and review acceptance from , Dabur Red. We expect the strong brand equity along with niche EMA. Launches in EMs are also gaining momentum. With the Malaysian presence in herbal and Ayurvedic products to safeguard the company’s facility getting ready for global filings, we believe the future bodes well for consumer business bastion in the long run the company on the biosimilars front. This is to improve the share of • Dabur, having been present in India for more than 125 years, has built its biosimilars in total revenues from 10% in FY16 to 20% by FY19. It will also strong edifice by leveraging on Ayurveda and herbal product offerings. Its provide an extra lever for growth besides Syngene and branded portfolio of traditional products ranges from Meswak, a premium herbal formulations. Although actual biosimilar launches in EU (and US) are toothpaste, to Hajmola Yoodley, an ethnic beverage to capture fast some distance away, we believe the acknowledgement from developed growing segment of traditional beverages. We believe the company is in a market regulators is likely to improve the valuation perspective. Our SOTP healthy position to capitalise on the tailwinds generated for demand of target price is | 1030 health and wellness products in the 'naturals' space • Biocon’s CRO arm Syngene contributes~32%toitsturnover.This • Further, the government’s focus on rural development bodes well for segment has been consistently growing at 20%+ rate. Recently, it has Dabur as rural India contributes ~40% to sales. In its highest ever spend been the major growth driver for the company as the biopharma segment on MNREGA, the government increased it to ~| 43800 crore (up ~22% is slowing down. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of ~22% to YoY) in FY16. Besides, it allocated ~| 87700 crore towards rural | 1945 crore in FY16-19E development as a whole in Budget 2016. Going ahead, we believe rural •The ssamall mooecueslecules segme nt (~42% ofo ttehe turno ve r) com pri ses APIs like incomes will witness a major boost on the back of good monsoons. We statins, immunosuppressants and specialty APIs and also includes the expect Dabur to clock sales growth of 10.8% CAGR in FY16-18E on the generic formulations business. We expect the small molecules segment to back of ~8% volume growth. We estimate earnings CAGR of 14.7% in grow at a CAGR of 13.5% to | 1930 crore in FY16-19E FY16-18E Key Financials FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Key Financials FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Revenues (| crore) 3,485.4 4,273.6 5,059.2 5986.3 Net sales | crore 7,806.4 7,761.6 8,579.3 9,536.4 EBITDA (| crore) 820.0 1,065.5 1,274.7 1555.5 Growth % 10.4 -0.6 10.5 11.2 EBITDA margins % 16. 6 19. 3 19. 7 20. 7 Adj. Net Profit (| crore) 450.3 666.4 767.6 963.8 PAT | crore 1,071.1 1,251.2 1,407.9 1,646.7 Adj. EPS (|) 22.5 33.3 38.4 48.2 PAT growth % 16.6 16.8 12.5 17.0 PE (x) 19.1 26.0 22.6 18.0 P/E x 48.2 41.3 36.7 31.4 P/BV (x) 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 P/BV x 15.4 12.4 10.3 8.8 ROE (%) 11.2 8.5 6.9 5.3 RoE % 31.9 30.2 27.9 27.9 ROCE (%) 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 RoCE % 31.8 31.1 29.7 30.1

Source: Bloomberg ICICIdirect.com Research LargeDeal Teamcap portfolio – At Your Service

Earlier Now

Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) Auto 14.0 Auto 15.0 Tata Motor DVR 4.0 Tata Motor DVR 4.0 Bosch 3.0 Bosch 3.0 Maruti 4.0 Maruti 5.0 EICHER Motors 3.0 EICHER Motors 303.0 BFSI 23.0 BFSI 25.0 HDFC Bank 8.0 HDFC Bank 8.0 Axis Bank 3.0 Axis Bank 3.0 HDFC 8.0 HDFC 8.0 Bajaj Finance 4.0 Bajaj Finance 6.0 Capital Goods 4.0 Capital Goods 4.0 L & T 4.0 L&TL & T 404.0 Cement 3.0 Cement 4.0 UltraTech Cement 3.0 UltraTech Cement 4.0 FMCG/Consumer 15.0 FMCG/Consumer 18.0 ITC 7.0 Dabur 5.0 Marico 3.0 Marico 4.0 Asian Paints 5.0 Asian Paints 5.0 IT 21.0 NtlNestle 404.0 Infosys 10.0 IT 18.0 TCS 8.0 Infosys 10.0 Wipro 3.0 TCS 8.0 Media 2.0 Media 2.0 Zee Entertainment 2.0 Zee Entertainment 2.0 Oil & Gas 4.0 Pharma 14.0 Reliance Industries 4.0 Lupin 606.0 Pharma 14.0 Dr Reddys 5.0 Lupin 6.0 Aurobindo Pharma 3.0 Dr Reddys 5.0 Total 100.0 Aurobindo Pharma 3.0 Total 100.0

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research MidcapDeal Team portfolio – At Your Service

Earlier Now

Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) Aviation 6 Aviation 6.0 Interglobe Aviation 6 Interglobe Aviation 6.0 Auto 6 Auto 6.0 Bharat Forge 6 Bharat Forge 6.0 BFSI 6 BFSI 6.0 Bajaj Finserve 6 Bajaj Finserve 6.0 Capital Goods 6 Capital Goods 6.0 Bharat Electronics 6 Bharat Electronics 6.0 Cement 6 Cement 6.0 Ramco Cement 6 Ramco Cement 6.0 Consumer 30 Consumer 30.0 Symphony 6 Symphony 6.0 Supreme Ind 6 Supreme Ind 6.0 Kansai Nerolac 6 Kansai Nerolac 6.0 Pidilite 6 Pidilite 6.0 Rallis 6 Rallis 6.0 FMCG 8 Infrastructure 8.0 Nestle 8 NBCC 8.0 Infrastructure 8 Logistics 6.0 NBCC 8 Container Corporation of India 6.0 Pharma 20.0 Logistics 6 Natco Pharma 6.0 Container Corporation of India 6 Torrent Pharma 6.0 Pharma 12 Biocon 8.0 Natco Pharma 6 Textile 6.0 Torrent Pharma 6 Arvind 6.0 Textile 6 Total 100.0 Arvind 6 Total 100.0

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research DiversifiedDeal Team portfolio – At Your (1/2) Service

Earlier Now

Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) Auto 12 Auto 12 Tata Motor DVR 3 Tata Motor DVR 3 Bosch 2 Bosch 2 Maruti 3 Maruti 4 Eicher Motors 2 Eicher Motors 2 Bharat Forge 2 Bharat Forge 2 Consumer Discretionary 16 Consumer Discretionary 16 Symphony 2 Symphony 2 Supreme Ind 2 Supreme Ind 2 Kansai Nerolac 2 Kansai Nerolac 2 Pidilite 2 Pidilite 2 Asian Paints 4 Asian Paints 4 Arvind 2 Arvind 2 Interglobe Aviation 2 Interglobe Aviation 2 Rallis 2 Rallis 2 BFSI 19 BFSI 18 HDFC Bank 6 HDFC Bank 6 Axis Bank 2 AiAxis B ank 2 HDFC 6 HDFC 6 Bajaj Finance 4 Bajaj Finance 3 Bajaj Finserve 2 Bajaj Finserve 2 Power, Infrastructure & Cement 13 Power, Infrastructure & Cement 13 L & T 3 L & T 3 UltraTech Cement 3 UltraTech Cement 2 Ramco Cement 2 Ramco Cement 2 NBCC 2 NBCC 2 Bharat Electronics 2 Bharat Electronics 2 Container Corporation of India 2 Container Corporation of India 2

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research DiversifiedDeal Team portfolio – At Your (2/2) Service

Earlier Now

Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) FMCG 9 FMCG 9 ITC 5 Nestle 3 Nestle 2 Marico 3 Marico 2 Dabur 4 Oil and Gas 3 Pharma 16 Reliance Industries 3 Lupin 4 Pharma 13 Dr Reddys 4 Lupin 4 Aurobindo Pharma 2 Dr Reddys 4 Natco Pharma 2 Aurobindo Pharma 2 Torrent Pharma 2 Natco Pharma 2 Biocon 2 Torrent Pharma 2 IT 13 IT 15 Infosys 7 Infosys 7 TCS 6 TCS 6 Media 1 Wipro 2 Zee Entertainment 1 Media 1 Total 100.0 Zee Entertainment 1 Total 100

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirec t.com RhResearch DkDesk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) MbiMumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

13 Disclaimer

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