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Strategy | INDIA Strategy | INDIA 2011 Outlook NOMURA FINANCIAL ADVISORY AND SECURITIES (INDIA) PRIVATE LIMITED Prabhat Awasthi +91 22 4037 4180 [email protected] Nipun Prem +91 22 4037 5030 [email protected] TOP DOWN ANCHOR REPORT Under the weather Stocks for action We reckon that 2011F will be a year of below-average returns for Indian equities. Our top BUY calls are MM and PF, as Market performance is likely to be shaped by a macroeconomic environment consumption and rural demand plays, punctuated by wage pressures, rising commodity prices, return of inflationary pressures, and TATA and CAIR, for their exposure tight liquidity (in the first half, at least), slowing growth momentum, a hesitant recovery to global commodity prices. ACEM and in the investment cycle, below-average earnings growth, downward sticky interest rates, HPCL are our top REDUCE calls. tighter monetary policy and somewhat muted government expenditure — all this in the backdrop of strong domestic consumption and below-trend global economic growth. We Stock Rating Price (INR) PT M&M (MM IN) BUY 789 892* favour a defensive bias when approaching sectors for next year. We recommend a Pantaloon (PF IN) BUY 389.5 553 relative Underweight stance on rate cyclicals, construction and cement, and a relative TATA Steel (TATA IN) BUY 624 846 Overweight stance on consumer, pharma, power, oil & gas, metals and IT services. Our Cairn India (CAIR IN) BUY 327 370* Ambuja Cements REDUCE 137.9 113 top BUY calls for next year are Mahindra & Mahindra, Pantaloons, Tata Steel and Cairn. (ACEM IN) Our top REDUCE calls are Ambuja Cements and HPCL. Hindustan Petroleum REDUCE 410.2 270 Corp (HPCL IN) Pricing as of 8 December, 2010; * PT under review See a year of below-average returns Liquidity squeeze and slowing growth momentum Analysts Prabhat Awasthi Inflation déjà vu +91 22 4037 4180 [email protected] A subpar recovery of the investment cycle Nipun Prem Earnings — potential disappointment to consensus expectations +91 22 4037 5030 [email protected] Sector stance — take a defensive stance And the India Research Team Nomura Anchor Reports examine the key themes and value drivers that underpin our Don’t miss our companion outlook sector views and stock recommendations for the next 6 to 12 months. reports on Asia and Global Economics, published 6 December 2010. Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 113 to 116. Nomura 15 December 2010 Strategy | INDIA 2011 Outlook NOMURA FINANCIAL ADVISORY AND SECURITIES (INDIA) PRIVATE LIMITED Prabhat Awasthi +91 22 4037 4180 [email protected] TOP Nipun Prem +91 22 4037 5030 [email protected] DOWN Action Stocks for action We expect 2011 to be a year of below-average returns for the market and set our Our top BUY calls are MM and PF, as December 2011 Sensex target at 22,100, implying a potential return of around consumption and rural demand plays, 12%. We see downside risk to the 20% y-y earnings growth in FY12F now being and TATA and CAIR, for their exposure priced in by consensus. We believe this, combined with a likely tightening of the to global commodity prices. ACEM and policy environment, could restrict premium expansion for equities. The factors that HPCL are our top REDUCE calls. could dominate policy are the strength of consumer demand and inflation. Stock Rating Price (INR) PT Anchor themes M&M (MM IN) BUY 789 892* Pantaloon (PF IN) BUY 389.5 553 Global commodity prices will likely be key in determining the evolution of inflation, TATA Steel (TATA IN) BUY 624 846 the current account and policy action. Cairn India (CAIR IN) BUY 327 370* Ambuja Cements REDUCE 137.9 113 Watch for: 1) labour shortages across industries; 2) slowing growth momentum in (ACEM IN) Hindustan Petroleum REDUCE 410.2 270 1H11F, 3) the likely return of inflationary pressures in 2H11F; 4) the effect of a Corp (HPCL IN) tighter policy environment; and 5) the strength of the urban and rural consumer. Pricing as of 8 December, 2010; * PT under review Under the weather Analysts Prabhat Awasthi +91 22 4037 4180 See a year of below-average returns [email protected] We judge 2011 to be a year of below-average returns for the market and set our December-2011 Sensex target at 22,100, implying a potential return of around Nipun Prem 12%. At the same time, we think the policy environment will likely tighten more +91 22 4037 5030 than expected, restricting premium expansion for equities. [email protected] Sanjay Kadam Liquidity squeeze and slower growth momentum +91 22 4037 4187 Extremely tight systemic liquidity conditions would result in a slowdown in growth. [email protected] Inflation déjà vu Rising global commodity prices are becoming a clear and present danger to domestic inflation. Labour shortages are becoming a binding constraint on growth and are further feeding the wage-price spiral. A subpar recovery of the investment cycle We expect some disappointment in the short to medium term. We see several obstacles to the capex cycle despite strength in demand; reports of government involvement in recent scams will likely impede government decision-making related to infrastructure projects and the reforms process. Earnings — potential disappointment to consensus expectations Amid a tough macroeconomic environment next year, we see downside risk to consensus growth expectations of 20%. Sector stance — take a defensive stance We favour a defensive bias when approaching sectors for next year. We recommend a relative Underweight stance on rate cyclicals, construction and cement and a relative Overweight stance on consumer, pharma, power, oil & gas, metals and IT services. Our top BUY calls are MM, PF, TATA and CAIR. Our top REDUCE calls are ACEM and HPCL. Nomura 1 15 December 2010 Strategy | India Prabhat Awasthi Contents Executive summary 4 A year of below-average returns 4 Labour shortages are becoming a binding constraint on growth 4 Inflation—at risk of rising again 4 Investment cycle—an uncertain outlook 5 Earnings—potential disappointment to consensus estimates 5 Key themes 6 Slowing growth momentum 6 Labour shortages—a key theme 10 Investment cycle—expect some short-to-medium-term disappointment 15 The policy environment: tighter monetary policy and fiscal consolidation 21 Downside risk to consensus earnings growth expectations of 20% for FY12F 24 The inflation redux 27 Liquidity would be tight in the near term and interest rates downwards sticky 29 Rupee well supported but global risk environment key 32 Valuations—not a tailwind for the market 34 Key themes for 2011 35 Sector strategy 36 Strategy basket 37 Appendix – A collection of recent media headlines on labour shortages in the country 38 The consolidation year 40 Investment cycle to move to trend 42 Private consumption holding up 43 Downward rigidity in inflation 44 Interest rates to inch higher 47 External sector on a razor thin edge 48 Nomura 2 15 December 2010 Strategy | India Prabhat Awasthi Sector views Autos 50 Banks 52 Construction materials (cement) 54 Consumer 56 Electrical equipment 58 IT services & software 60 Infrastructure and construction 62 Metals 64 Oil & gas/chemicals 66 Power & utilities 68 Pharmaceuticals 70 Property 72 Telecoms 75 Also see our Anchor Report: Asia Pacific Strategy — Deflation, inflation Transport infrastructure 77 and the return of the productive economy (6 December, 2010) Latest company views Mahindra and Mahindra 79 TATA Steel 83 Pantaloon Retail India 87 Cairn India 92 Ambuja Cements 96 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation 100 Valuation and risks 104 Also see our NOMURA: 2011 Global Economic Outlook — Rocky Road of Recovery (6 December, 2010) Nomura 3 15 December 2010 Strategy | India Prabhat Awasthi The big picture Executive summary A year of below-average returns We judge the year 2011 to be a year of below-average returns for the market and set We think consensus is expecting our December-2011 Sensex target at 22,100, implying a potential market return of a bit too much in view of the risks around 12%. We expect some downside to consensus earnings growth expectations of approximately 20% y-y. At the same time, the policy environment will likely tighten more than expected, restricting premium expansion for equities. The factors that will likely dominate policy should be the strength of consumer demand and inflation. We note that a large part of inflation in India is imported and if global commodity prices rally on the back of an easy global monetary policy environment, India’s inflation risks could flare up yet again. However, global risk sentiment remains volatile and developments in the Fed’s quantitative easing program, China’s inflation and the sovereign crisis in Europe could well play an important part in determining the fate of the dollar and commodity prices. Special focus areas for this year’s outlook are: 1) labour shortages across industries; 2) likely return of inflationary pressures in the second half of the year; 3) effect of tighter policy environment on an overall basis, and; 4) strength of both the urban and rural consumer. Labour shortages are becoming a binding constraint on growth We are seeing increasing signs of labour shortages building up, which we think is a Skilled labour is tight, good for common theme across the country in both urban and rural India. Evidence based on the trades, bad for the bottom line field-trips to rural areas by our analysts suggests that the supply of labour has not kept pace with its demand in a rapidly growing economy resulting in higher labour costs. This we think is one of the main reasons why even exceptionally high food inflation did not lead to a significant social unrest in India.
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