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ZAREKIA, S. – RANDHIR, T. O. : Risk Jamali et al.: Risk assessment of sand dune disaster in relation to geomorphic properties and vulnerability in the Saduq-Yazd Erg - 579 - RISK ASSESSMENT OF SAND DUNE DISASTER IN RELATION TO GEOMORPHIC PROPERTIES AND VULNERABILITY IN THE SADUQ-YAZD ERG JAMALI, A. A.1* – ZAREKIA, S.2 – RANDHIR, T. O.3 1Department of GIS-RS and Watershed Management, Maybod Branch, Islamic Azad University Maybod, Iran (e-mail: [email protected]) 2Rangeland and Forest Research Division, Yazd Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO Yazd, Iran (e-mail: [email protected]) 3Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) *Corresponding author (Received 4th Jul 2017; accepted 6th Dec 2017) Abstract. Sand dunes occupy a vast expanse of desert area in Iran and they are considered as a threat for urban areas and agricultural lands. Erg is an area of desert covered with shifting sand dunes. Saduq (Ashkezar) city, located in the west and northwest of the Yazd City, Iran, is surrounded by these mobile sand dunes. The aim of this study was the risk assessment of sand dune disaster in relation to geomorphic properties and vulnerability. The methods of satellite imageries, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and geographic information system (GIS) were used. Sand dunes changes were mapped, and field surveys were carried out to resolve any ambiguities. The results show that the sand dunes in the center of Erg have moved closer to the city and agricultural lands. The dunes displacement (movement) was dependence to size, cover and shape and direction of them. These analyses can help to city governor and mayor for preventing of dunes offense toward the city. Keywords: neural network, sand dunes, satellite image, remote sensing, Yazd, Iran Introduction Aeolian dune geomorphology is a product of the processes of wind erosion and deposition on land surface (Xiao et al., 2015). Thus, the formation and development of these landforms depend on windblown sand movement (Wu, 2003). The windblown sand movement is affected by the landscape characteristics, including vegetation, mulch, topography, wind regime and other regional factors. Studies in the history of aeolian geomorphology have enhanced the knowledge of dune morphology, formation and development conditions, dynamic processes of formation and evolution, and regional differentiation and regularity (Lancaster, 1995; Li and Ni, 2000; Livingstone et al., 2007). Studies in traditional dune geomorphology tend to focus on the formation and evolution of dunes that are in regions unaffected by complex terrain (Pye and Tsoar, 1990; Tsoar and Blumberg, 2002); however, sand dune formation also occurs in complex terrain. This research focuses on using new methods and softwares for visualization the trend and drift of the Erg and dunes that can be a danger for settlers. Tavakkolifard et al. (2013) were determined the risk of sand transportation to residential APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 16(1): 579-590. http://www.aloki.hu ● ISSN 1589 1623 (Print) ● ISSN 1785 0037 (Online) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1601_579590 2018, ALÖKI Kft., Budapest, Hungary Jamali et al.: Risk assessment of sand dune disaster in relation to geomorphic properties and vulnerability in the Saduq-Yazd Erg - 580 - areas around Kashan-Iran Erg using anemometry data analysis without geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing. Sandy landforms are morphologically divided into sand seas (Ergs), isolated dunes, dune fields, sandy plains, and sheets. At several locations, sand encroachment causes hazards to farmlands, highways, population centers and other infrastructures. Remote sensing techniques could be used effectively to monitor sand dune movements by comparing the multi-temporal satellite images (Pye and Tsoar, 1990) in Saduq having Erg, dune fields, and sandy plains. Bars, mulch, vegetation cover, or complex topography can decelerate, accelerate, and otherwise control the direction of the wind or windblown sand flow, particularly on the leeward side of trees and bushes. These changes in windblown sand movement lead to different erosion and deposition near the complex terrain, forming a variety of sand dunes, including small dunes, single dunes and string dunes (Evans, 1962; Cooke and Warren, 1973; Tsoar, 1983; Elbelrhiti et al., 2005; Elbelrhiti, 2012). Past studies in this area have documented local changes in bedform type (Al-Masrahy and Mountney, 2013) and associated spatial variation in aeolian lithofacies distributions in champ dune fields (Breed and Grow, 1979; Sweet et al., 1988; Kocurek and Lancaster, 1999; Saqqa and Atallah, 2004; Baas, 2007; Bullard et al., 2011). However, relatively few researchers have endeavored to measurably substantiate the form of spatial variability of the dune and interdune morphology from the center of aeolian dune-field systems to their borders (Jamali and Abdolkhani, 2009; Kocurek and Ewing, 2005; Wilkins and Ford, 2007; Ewing and Kocurek, 2010a; Kocurek et al., 2010; Hugenholtz and Barchyn, 2010). In modeling desert sites, Mili (2016) studied sites where the desert merges with wet coastal zones in Tunisia. Mili used GIS and modeling between water storages and some social factors in aquifer and floodplain sites merging of desert sites as important natural water storage and as natural protection against flooding. Meyer and Crews Meyer (2016) conducted a study to examine the suitability and fragmentation analysis in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve desert region, using GIS, remote sensing and GPS . the suitability analysis revealed three suggested corridors for protection Wildlife and Tourism. Potter (2016) has studied the analysis of desert sand dune migration patterns using Landsat image time series in the Southern California Desert. The predominant direction of sand dune movements was correctly mapped from the satellite imagery, as well as the migration distances of the leading edges of sand dunes over the entire 1992-2010 monitoring period. Some studies concentrated on extraction of sand dune encroachment by GIS (Dakhla Oases, the western desert of Egypt) (Ghadiry et al., 2012). McCulloch and Pitts (1943) created a computational model for neural networks based on mathematics and algorithms called threshold logic. This model paved the way for neural network research to split into two distinct approaches. One approach focused on biological processes in the brain, and the other concentrated on the application of neural networks to artificial intelligence. In this study, some methods were composed to obtain sand dune movement. By using intelligence method such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and using a statistical method, we can find land changing and trend in Erg and we can control sand dune moving according to their movements. The aim of this study is to model sand dune movement related to their shape properties (Dune’s stoss and lee side, mulch, dune size) and vicinity threat in the Saduq- Yazd Erg. The specific objective is to evaluate effective factors in sand dune movement and its vulnerability using neural networks, statistical modeling and field surveys. Hypotheses are: (i) Sand dunes with different shapes are going to move, and change APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 16(1): 579-590. http://www.aloki.hu ● ISSN 1589 1623 (Print) ● ISSN 1785 0037 (Online) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1601_579590 2018, ALÖKI Kft., Budapest, Hungary Jamali et al.: Risk assessment of sand dune disaster in relation to geomorphic properties and vulnerability in the Saduq-Yazd Erg - 581 - differently, and (ii) Erg movement towards the city depends on the wind direction and relative location of Erg. Materials and methods Study area This survey was conducted on Yazd Erg dune groups in the center of Iran. The Erg sand dune lies near the Saduq (Ashkezar), and it is 20 km away from Yazd city. The area surrounded by some vulnerable land use such as road, farmland, and villages. The height of Yazd plain from the see level is 1200 m with the general slopes of less than 2%.The plain is located in north of the Shirkouh Mountains (4040 m above sea level), which is the highest mountain range in central part of Iran. The Erg has been covered with flowing sands, its mean rainfall in the past thirty years was 61.7 mm the average annual temperature was 18.1°C and maximum, and minimum temperatures are +46.5°C and -15.5°C, respectively. This area has a cold and dry climate, according to Emberger climate classification, and according to the Demarton classification, its climate is ultra- dry cold. The study area has some loose row and single vegetation cover such as Haloxylon sp. and Tamarix sp. (Baghestani et al., 2015; Figs. 1 and 2). Methods Following methods in literature (Tsoar, 1983; Tang et al., 2011), we studied the morphology of dune types (e.g. parabola and linear dunes) by using a variety of methods and measured parameters including slope, length, height and direction (Xiao et al., 2015). In the present study, the morphology and movement of sand dunes would be investigated using a variety of material and methods, including satellite imagery, remote sensing, intelligence GIS and statistical methods to find their possible threats for city and its settlers; thus the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in Jun 1986, The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) acquired in Jun 2001, Jun 2010, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)
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