Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527-1850 Nuno Palma
European Historical Economics Society EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY | NO. 137 From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527-1850 Nuno Palma (University of Manchester and CEPR) Jaime Reis (Universidade de Lisboa) AUGUST 2018 EHES Working Paper | No. 137|August 2018 From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527-1850* Nuno Palma1 (University of Manchester and CEPR) Jaime Reis2 (Universidade de Lisboa) Abstract We construct the first time-series for Portugal’s per capita GDP for 1527-1850, drawing on a new database. Starting in the early 1630s there was a highly persistent upward trend which accelerated after 1710 and peaked 40 years later. At that point, per capita income was high by European standards, though behind the most advanced Western European economies. But as the second half of the eighteenth century unfolded, a phase of economic decline was initiated. This continued into the nineteenth century, and by 1850 per capita incomes were not different from what they had been in the early 1530s. JEL Classification: N13, O52 Keywords: Early Modern Portugal, Historical National Accounts, Standards of Living Debate, the Little Divergence, Malthusian Model. ∗ Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Steve Broadberry, Leonor F. Costa, António C. Henriques, Kivanç Karaman, Wolfgang Keller, Cormac Ó Gráda, Şevket Pamuk, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Joan R. Rosés, Jacob Weisdorf, Jeffrey Williamson, and many participants at the Nova SBE lunchtime seminar, the 2014 Accounting for the Great Divergence conference, The University of Warwick in Venice, the 2014 APHES conference in Lisbon, and the 2015 EHES in Pisa for discussion of this paper. We also thank colleagues on the Prices, Wages and Rents in Portugal 1300-1910 project.
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