United Nations Food Systems Summit 2021 Scientific Group https://sc-fss2021.org/ Food Systems Summit Brief Prepared by Research Partners of the Scientific Group for the Food Systems Summit, May 2021 Climate Change and Food Systems by Alisher Mirzabaev, Lennart Olsson, Rachel Bezner Kerr, Prajal Pradhan, Marta Guadalupe Rivera Ferre, Hermann Lotze-Campen 1 Abstract Introduction Climate change affects the Climate change affects the functioning of all the components of food functioning of all the components of food systems, often in ways that exacerbate systems1 which embrace the entire range existing predicaments and inequalities of actors and their interlinked value-adding between regions of the world and groups in activities involved in the production, society. At the same time, food systems are aggregation, processing, distribution, a major cause for climate change, consumption, and recycling of food accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas products that originate from agriculture emissions. Therefore, food systems can (including livestock), forestry, fisheries, and and should play a much bigger role in food industries, and the broader economic, climate policies. This policy brief highlights societal, and natural environments in nine actions points for climate change which they are embedded2. At the same adaptation and mitigation in the food time, food systems are a major cause of systems. The policy brief shows that climate change, contributing about a third numerous practices, technologies, (21–37%) of the total Greenhouse Gas knowledge and social capital already exist (GHG) emissions through agriculture and for climate action in the food systems, with land use, storage, transport, packaging, multiple synergies with other important processing, retail, and consumption3 goals such as the conservation of (Figure 1). biodiversity, safeguarding of ecosystem Climate change will affect food services, sustainable land management systems differentially across world regions. and reducing social and gender While some areas, such as northern inequalities. Many of these solutions are temperate regions, may in the short term presently being applied at local scales even experience some beneficial changes, around the world, even if not at sufficient tropical and sub-tropical regions levels. Hence, the major effort for worldwide are expected to face changes unleashing their potential would involve that are detrimental to food systems. Such overcoming various technical, political- changes will have effects on food and economic and structural barriers for their nutrition security through a complex web much wider application. Some other of mechanisms (Figure 1). Critical climate solutions require research and variabilities that affect food and nutrition development investments now but focus security include increasing temperatures, on helping us meet the longer-term changing precipitation patterns and challenges of climate change on food greater frequency or intensity of extreme systems in the second half of this century weather events such as heatwaves, when most existing food production droughts and floods3. They impact the practices will face unprecedented productivity of crops, livestock and challenges. In the short term, these pro- fisheries by modulating water availability poor policy changes and support systems and quality, causing heat stress, and can create a range of positive changes well altering the pests and disease beyond food systems without delay. In the environment, including the faster spread of long-term, investments in research will mycotoxins and pathogens. Increased help ensure food security and ecosystem frequency and intensity of floods and integrity for coming generations. droughts can lead to considerable 2 Figure 1: Linkages between climate change and food systems disruptions in food supply chains through under high emission and low adaptation harvest failures and infrastructure damage. scenario [i.e., under Shared Socioeconomic The exposure of people to heatwaves, Pathway (SSP) 3] compared to low emission droughts and floods can harm their health and high adaptation scenario (SSP1). An and lower their productivity affecting their additional 150-600 million people are livelihoods and incomes, especially for projected to experience various forms of those engaged in climate-sensitive sectors micronutrient deficiency by 2050 at higher or working outdoors. This exposure can emission scenario6–8. strongly affect more vulnerable groups in The interactions between climate many lower-income countries, e.g., change and food systems have smallholder farmers, low-income considerable repercussions across all of the households, women and children. Other dimensions of sustainable development. In factors related to climate change that fact, in six of the 17 sustainable affect food systems are the rise in development goals (SDGs), climate change- 2 and, atmospheric concentrations of CO food systems interactions increasingly play indirectly, land degradation, and reduction a major role. These relate to the social in pollination services. Changes in CO2 goals of zero hunger (SDG 2) and gender levels in the atmosphere affect both crop equality (SDG5), and the four yields and their nutrient content. Climate environmental goals of water resources change will exacerbate land degradation, (SDG 6), climate action (SDG 13), life below through increasing soil erosion especially in water (SDG 14), and life on land (SDG 15). sloping and coastal areas, increasing soil Solutions addressing the challenges posed salinity in irrigated lands, making climate by climate change - food systems more arid and prone to desertification in interactions can serve as a critical entry some dryland areas4,5. The potential point for promoting the 2030 Agenda for reduction or loss of pollination services also sustainable development well beyond the leads to lower crop yields. Conservative timeline of the current SDGs9. Since these estimates, which take into account these interactions vary according to the country’s climate change impacts only partially, show income, region, and population groups that the number of people at risk of hunger (i.e., gender, age, and location of its may increase by 183 million people by 2050 3 population), solutions prioritizing women, coming at the expense of lower yield younger, and rural people, i.e., “leaving no stability due to higher weather variability one behind,” can better leverage between seasons. Climate change accounts achievements of SDGs10. for about half of food production variability globally. Presently, adaptive strategies to increase crop yields (crop breeding, How climate change interacts with improved agronomic management, food systems and food security adaptations based on indigenous and local knowledge, etc.) can withstand, at a global average, any impacts of climate change on Food availability crop yields. However, the acceleration of climate change can overwhelm this trend in Considerable evidence has by now the future; and the impacts are already emerged indicating that climate change is experienced in many regions. Climate already negatively affecting crop change increased drought-induced food production in many areas across the production losses in southern Africa, 11,12 world . Reductions of 21% in total factor leading to 26 million people in the region productivity of global agriculture since requiring humanitarian assistance in 2015- 13 1961 have been estimated . It has been 1626. Climate change is also increasing found that climate change during the last ocean acidification and temperatures, four-five decades reduced the yields of reducing farmed fish and shellfish cereals by about 2%-5% on average globally production as well as wild fish catches, with compared to the situation if there was no some regions experiencing losses of 15- 14 climate change . This range of about 5% 35%3. lower cereal yields due to climate change was also found in regional studies, for The impacts of climate change on example, for wheat and barley in Europe15, food productions are projected to worsen for wheat in India16, for maize in Africa, after the 2050s, particularly under higher 3 Central and Eastern Asia17, and Central and emission scenarios . In agriculture, the South America18. Higher losses equaling biggest crop yield declines due to climate about 5%-20% were found for millet and change are expected to occur in those sorghum yields in West Africa19, and about areas which are already hot and dry, 5%-25% lower maize yields in Eastern and especially in the tropics and sub-tropics, as Southern Europe20. There is growing well as in the global drylands where water literature documenting the negative scarcity is projected to become more 5 impacts of climate change on the yields of acute . More recent modelling shows that legumes, vegetables, and fruits in drylands, previous projections of climate change tropical and sub-tropical areas3,21. These impacts on future crop yields losses in yields have occurred after taking underestimated the extent of potential coping and adaptive actions3. yield declines. For example, many crop modelling studies do not consider the In temperate climatic zones, such as effect of short-term extreme weather northern China, parts of Russia, northern events. Although extreme weather events Europe, and parts of Canada, observed have always posed disruptions in the food climatic changes are increasing the systems, climate change is increasing the agricultural potentials leading to higher likelihood