Mid-Core Games in 2019
2019 MOBILE GAMING PREDICTIONS MISHKA (MICHAIL) KATKOFF
Head of Studio @ Rovio Founder @ Deconstructor of Fun ------Studio Lead @ Fun Plus Executive Producer @ Zynga Product Manager @ Supercell Product Manager @ Digital Chocolate To know the future, you have to understand the past
REQUIRED: GRAIN OF SALT
Top grossing iPhone mobile gaming apps in the United States as of August 2018
WINNER TAKES ALL CPI LTV MARKETABILITY LASTING RETENTION ORGANICS MONETIZATION MOBILE MARKET CATEGORIES AUGUST 2018
41% 41% 14% 4%
Category revenue share CASUAL GAMES
$559M net IAP revenue (August 2018)
181M downloads (August 2018) CASUAL GAMES: SUB-CATEGORIES
AR Arcade Lifestyle Puzzle Simulation
10% 4% 8% 61% 17%
$559M Total Monthly Revenue 2018/08 CASUAL GAMES: LAST 12 MONTHS Revenue Downloads
Puzzle
Puzzle
Arcade
Simulation
Simulation
AR Lifestyle Lifestyle
Arcade AR
¥ Puzzle and Simulation category increased year-over-year revenue ¥ Puzzle category downloads in a steady decline due to no new ¥ New AR / Location based games failed to gain significant big game launches in last 6 months and the rise of CPIs sustainable market share ¥ Arcade games’ downloads declining significantly ¥ Lifestyle revenue growth fueled by increase in downloads ¥ Simulation category boosted by new bullish entrants CASUAL GAMES: NET IAP REVENUE (MUSD) LAST 12 MONTHS
Puzzle $741M $49M Idler RPG Endless $11M $60M Action Runner Puzzle AR $489M (8%)
Arcade $143M Words/ $203M Hyper Casual $333M Cards/ Puzzle (3%) Games Hidden Object $1 043M (64%) Disclaimer: Casual Majority of revenue is generated from ads $6 249M (which isn’t shown here) Time $101M Puzzle Management $2 869M
Simulation Lifestyle Sandbox $258M $513M $1 043M (8%) $358M Customization (17%)
$188M Adventures
Interactive $155M Crafting $393M Story $103M Breeding Idlers “No core nor meta gameplay, just infinite progression” Arcade Games: Idlers (1/2) Idlers Top Games
Idle Miner Tycoon
Merge Planes
Trailer Park Boys
¥ Majority of revenue unknown (Ads) ¥ Top games would be in top 50 grossing ¥ Revenue and Downloads balanced ¥ Constantly new games. Still room to innovate. * Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month
Hyper Casual Games “Games that anyone can just pickup and play” LOW COST FOCUS ON NOVELTY QUICK VALIDATION
CPI < LTV Casual Games: Hypercasuals Instant Games Top Games
Color By Number 33.0M downloads
Pixel Art $16.6M net IAP revenue
Kick The Buddy
¥ Majority of revenue unknown (Ads) ¥ Top games would be in top 50 grossing ¥ Constantly new games ¥ Huge drop in downloads after June. Are we starting to see the saturation point? PUZZLE GAMES CASUAL GAMES: NET IAP REVENUE (MUSD) LAST 12 MONTHS
Puzzle $741M $49M Idler RPG Endless $11M $60M Action Runner Puzzle AR $489M (8%)
Arcade $143M Words/ $203M Hyper Casual $333M Cards/ Puzzle (3%) Games Hidden Object $1 043M (64%) Casual $6 249M Time $101M Puzzle Management $2 869M
Simulation Lifestyle Sandbox $258M $513M $1 043M (8%) $358M Customization (17%)
$188M Adventures
Interactive $155M Crafting $393M Story $103M Breeding CASUAL GAMES: NET IAP REVENUE (MUSD) LAST 12 MONTHS
Puzzle $741M RPG $60M Action Puzzle
Words/ $333M Cards/ Puzzle Hidden Object $1 043M (64%) Casual $6 249M
Puzzle $2 869M Casual Games: Puzzle RPG Puzzle RPG Top Games
1. Dragon Ball Z Dokkan Battle ¥Revenue: $27.7M (-42%) ¥Downloads 0.5M (-46%) 2. Empires & Puzzles ¥Revenue: $11.7M (+11%) ¥Downloads 1.4M (+10%) 3. Angry Birds 2 ¥Revenue: $7.6M (+0%) ¥Downloads 3.8M (-17%) 4. Legendary: Game of Heroes ¥Revenue: $6.3M (+1%) ¥Downloads 0.2M (-16%) 5. Best Fiends ¥ Stagnant user growth ¥Revenue: $3.7M (+2%) ¥ Massive revenue growth ¥Downloads 0.7M (-8%)
¥ Ever more deeper meta game mechanics * Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month
BOSSES COLLECTIONS
Puzzle $741M RPG $60M Action Puzzle
Words/ $333M Cards/ Puzzle Hidden Object $1 043M (64%)
Puzzle $2 869M Casual $6 249M Casual Games: Puzzle Puzzle Top Games
1. Candy Crush Saga $238.7M net IAP revenue ¥Revenue: $58.7M (+28%) ¥Downloads 10.2M (-1%) 2. Candy Crush Soda Saga ¥Revenue: $25.8M (-3%) ¥Downloads 2.9M (-9%) 3. Toon Blast ¥Revenue: $25.3M (+8%) 38.4M ¥Downloads 4.6M (+4%) downloads 4. Gardenscapes – New Acres ¥Revenue: $25.1M (-8%) ¥Downloads 2.4M (-5%) 5. Homescapes ¥ Stagnant user growth ¥Revenue: $22.5M (-3%) ¥ Revenue looks to have peaked ¥Downloads 4.2M (-16%)
* Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month Toon Blast
$25.3M net IAP revenue
4.6M Toon Blast in a nutshell downloads ¥ Tap to clear match game ¥ Developed by Peak Games ¥ Successor for “Toy Blast”
¥ Frequent updates (50 new levels every 2 weeks) ¥ Revenues driven by optimization, competition and events ¥ Developed and ran by a team of roughly 15 people FANTASTIC LAUNCHES AMAZING OPTIMIZATION
LIVE OPS EVENT VS.
NEW GAME ? 2018
Guilds 2019 & Events Next in Puzzle? Puzzle games with PvP elements?
Note: Information based on worldwide App Annie data but Asia based games have been excluded so data mostly from Western games Source: App Annie, GameRefinery & Rovio Puzzle games with PvP elements?
Best Fiends Rivals Super Spell Heroes Puzzle Fighter By: Seriously By: Flare Games By: Capcom ¥ Soft-launched in ¥ Launched in August ¥ Launched in October 2017 ¥ Current lifetime: November 2017 ¥ Removed from App ¥ Revenue: $150k ¥ Shut down in July Stores in August 2018 ¥ Downloads: 400k 2018 ➢Not looking very good CASUAL GAMES IN 2019
• Majority of Growth is on the Revenue side, not Download.
• Live Ops (Events) from existing games is driving the Revenue growth
• Hyper Casual is where the organic/cheap growth was.
• Arcade / Hyper Casual games will start maturing
• Narrative, PvP, and Events focus can help new games enter entrenched genres
• Simulation and Location Based games will continue to grow through new launches and improved live operations. MIDCORE GAMES
LIFESTYLE SUB-CATEGORIES MOBILE MARKET CATEGORIES AUGUST 2018
41% 41% 14% 4%
Category revenue share MID-CORE GAMES
$554M net IAP revenue (August 2018)
120M downloads (August 2018)
*Games with 70% or more of the revenue coming from Asia were excluded MID-CORE: SUB-CATEGORIES
Action Card Games MOBA RPG Strategy
15% 4% 1% 31% 49%
$554M Total Monthly Revenue 2018/08 Mid-Core Games: Sub-Categories Revenue Downloads
Strategy
Action RPG
Action Strategy RPG
Card games MOBA MOBA Card games
¥ Action category driven by rise of Battle Royale ¥ Downloads declining throughout all categories due to lack of big launches and ¥ Strategy games declining due to decline of Clash Royale and slowed down high CPIs growth of the 4X games ¥ Action category downloads stabilizing after the launches of PUBG and Fortnite ¥ RPG games declining due to significant decline of top franchises across all in March genres ¥ MOBAs stayed a niche while Card Games dominated by a coupled of key franchises $276M Action Fighting $280M (12%) RPG (12%)
MOBA $87M (1%) $618M $247M Battle (26%) (46%) MMO Royal $66M (12%) RPG FPS $2 363M (35%) $87M Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M (16%) Snipers Action RPG (50%) (8%) $6 677M
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Strategy $3 442M Card $2 325M Games (52%) 4X (68%) $245M (4%)
* Bubble size presents categery $428M Synch. $688M Build & revenue share (12%) Battler (20%) Battle $280M $276M Action Fighting (12%) RPG (12%)
MOBA $87M Battle (1%) $618M $247M (26%) (46%) Royal MMO $66M (12%) RPG FPS $2 363M (35%) $87M Action Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M RPG (50%) (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Strategy $3 442M Card (52%) $2 325M Games 4X (68%) $245M (4%)
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues $428M Synch. $688M Build & (12%) Battler (20%) Battle $247M Battle (46%) Royal $66M (12%) FPS
Action $87M Mid-Core Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Battle Royal
$66M (12%) FPS
Action $87M Mid-Core Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) 2018
We will copy a successful Steam game with twitch control to mobile and it will be huge!
- NetEase -
We will port our successful Steam game with twitch controls to mobile and it will be huge!
- Bluehole - We will port a console game with even twitchier controls to and it will be even bigger!
- Epic - - Mobile Games Veterans -
+600M installs + 700M in revenue Battle Pass
How does it actually work? Battle Pass – Core Idea
¥ Players unlock Battle Pass tiers by playing the game
¥ For reaching certain tiers, players get season based exclusive rewards like skins/ emotes etc.
¥ Because of seasons there is always only a limited time to unlock all tiers from each Battle Pass ➢ This is extremely effective engagement and retention driver PUBG mobile
PUBG Mobile Battle Pass (season 3) ¥ 12 weeks ¥ 100 tiers ¥ ~10 dollars
Season 1 stats: ¥ 4 weeks ¥ 30 tiers ¥ ~10 dollars Battle Pass – Why does it monetize so well? ¥ There is always 2 layers in each Battle Pass (Free & Paid)
¥ Everyone can progress and unlock as many tiers as they want in the free layer
¥ The trick is: Upgrading to paid layer instantly unlocks all rewards that corresponds currently unlocked tier in free layer ➢ The more you play the more value you get for your money ➢ You get the feeling of “missing out” if you don’t upgrade
Fortnite Battle Pass Free/Basic ¥ 10 weeks ¥ 100 tiers ¥ ~10 dollars Paid/Premium Battle Pass – Pros & Cons
Pros Cons
¥ Extremely good feature as a ¥ Usually requires very high DAU to actually be retention, engagement and successful conversion driver o Lacks “spending depth” i.e. high spenders are not able to spend much ¥ Feels player friendly (is usually used for cosmetics only) ¥ Cannot be implemented in all types of games (has not yet proven successful outside of ¥ Fairly easy to include other Battle Royale genre) monetization mechanics such ability to skip tiers or xp boosters Pricing Strategy
A business can use a variety of pricing strategies when selling a product or service.
The price can be set to maximize profitability for each unit sold or from the market overall.
It can be used to defend an existing market from new entrants, to increase market share within a market or to enter a new market. Pricing Strategy: Maximize Profits
Pricing Strategy: Defend Market From New Entrants Pricing Strategy: Enter New Market
$280M $276M Action Fighting (12%) RPG (12%)
MOBA $87M Battle (1%) $618M $247M (26%) (46%) Royal MMO $66M (12%) RPG FPS $2 363M (35%) $87M Action Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M RPG (50%) (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Strategy $3 442M Card (52%) $2 325M Games 4X (68%) $245M (4%)
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues $428M Synch. $688M Build & (12%) Battler (20%) Battle $280M $276M Action Fighting (12%) RPG (12%)
$618M MMO (26%) RPG $2 363M (35%) Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M $6 677M RPG (50%)
Puzzle RPG
$741M
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues Mid-Core Games: Turn-based RPG Turn-based RPG Top Games
1. Summoners War ¥Revenue: $16.0M (-21%) $91.3M ¥Downloads 0.2M (-33%) net IAP revenue 2. Fire Emblem Heroes ¥Revenue: $13.2M (-24%) ¥Downloads 0.1M (+205%) 3. Final Fantasy Brave Exvius ¥Revenue: $12.2M (+7%) ¥Downloads 0.1M (+232%) 4.6M downloads 4. Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes ¥Revenue: $10.4M (+2%) ¥Downloads 0.4M (-22%) 5. Idle Heroes ¥ Second largest category in Mid-Core ¥Revenue: $9.9M (-10%) ¥ Fairly stagnant revenue/download growth ¥Downloads 0.8M (+4%)
¥ All top games are surprisingly different in comparison * Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month
DIFFERENT WAYS TO SUCCEED BUT FEW COMMON NOMINATORS
¥ Live operations ¥ New content tied to gacha ¥ Extremely deep and evolving meta-game ¥ Depth over accessibility and core gameplay THE CASE OF SAME BUT DIFFERENT 1. Understand the audience of your IP 2. Execute flawlessly $280M $276M Action Fighting (12%) RPG (12%)
MOBA $87M Battle (1%) $618M $247M (26%) (46%) Royal MMO $66M (12%) RPG FPS $2 363M (35%) $87M Action Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M RPG (50%) (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Strategy $3 442M Card (52%) $2 325M Games 4X (68%) $245M (4%)
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues $428M Synch. $688M Build & (12%) Battler (20%) Battle MOBA $87M (1%)
Mid-Core $6 677M
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues
Mid-Core Games: MOBA MOBA Top Games
1. Mobile Legends: Bang Bang $6.8M ¥Revenue: $6.2M (-3%) net IAP revenue ¥Downloads 5.7M (-11%) 2. Vainglory ¥Revenue: $0.6M (-13%) 6.1M ¥Downloads 0.4M (+94%) downloads
¥ Most of the revenue coming from APAC (and China) ¥ Esports have not given the expected boost
¥ Influencers / Streamers significant marketing channel * Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month MOBA $87M (1%) Brawlers
Mid-Core $6 677M
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues
Possibly emerging category BRAWLER A team of players faces another team. Focus on team-play. Strong core gameplay with progression mechanics.
1. ART STYLE 2. PROGRESSION SYSTEM 2. PROGRESSION SYSTEM 3. LACK OF GAMEPLAY DEPTH 4. CONTROLS 4. CONTROLS IS THIS A BILLION DOLLAR FRANCHISE?
MOBAS
¥ Successful in APAC and China ¥ Till date, no marginal traction in the West ¥ Brawl Stars will launch globally ¥ Brawler category emerge in the Eastern market
$280M $276M Action Fighting (12%) RPG (12%)
MOBA $87M Battle (1%) $618M $247M (26%) (46%) Royal MMO $66M (12%) RPG FPS $2 363M (35%) $87M Action Mid-Core Turn-based $1 190M Snipers (16%) $541M $6 677M RPG (50%) (8%)
Tactical $140M Shooters (26%) Strategy $3 442M Card (52%) $2 325M Games 4X (68%) $245M (4%)
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues $428M Synch. $688M Build & (12%) Battler (20%) Battle Mid-Core $6 677M
Strategy $3 442M $2 325M (52%) 4X (68%)
Top two games generate over 70% or more of sub-category revenues $428M Synch. $688M Build & (12%) Battler (20%) Battle Mid-Core Games: Strategy Synch. Battler Top Games
1. Clash Royale ¥Revenue: $29.9M (+19%) ¥Downloads 4.8M (-10%)
$30.4M net IAP revenue
4.9M downloads
¥ Category created and owned by Clash Royale ¥ 350M lifetime installs / 1500M lifetime net revenue ¥ Revenue down 25% after launch of Fortnite * Net revenue from newest month ** Growth percentages newest vs previous month Clash Royale Esports
$29.9M net IAP revenue
4.8M downloads
¥ Huge esports season launched at the end of August o Was covered in multiple media outlets globally o Boosted by key Esports franchises o No impact in downloads Clash Royale Esports
¥ Minimal views compared to any other types of videos on the channel ¥ Clash Royale Esports = 130k subscribers and 25M views ¥ Main channel 5.4M subscribers and 650M views What about competitors? Is this the beginning of end for Clash Royale? MID-CORE GAMES IN 2019
• Majority of Growth is on the Revenue side, not Download
• IPs and themes become crucial to lower CPIs
• RPG becomes the biggest category in term of revenus
• New sub-category in form of Brawler(s)
• Blending of genres with goal of increasing depth will continue
• Virtual D-pad and longer sessions are back on the menu
• Esports will remain a curiosity rather than a growth driver
• Influencers / streamers will become ever more important marketing channel
MOBILE GAMES IN 2019
MID-CORE CASUAL
• Majority of Growth is on the Revenue side, not Download. • Majority of Growth is on the Revenue side, not Download • Live Ops (Events) from existing games is driving the Revenue growth • IPs and themes become crucial to lower CPIs • Hyper Casual is where the organic/cheap growth was. • RPG becomes the biggest category in term of revenues • Arcade / Hyper Casual games will start maturing • New sub-category in form of Brawler(s) • Narrative, PvP, and Events focus can help new games enter entrenched genres
• Blending of genres with goal of increasing depth will continue • Simulation and Location Based games will continue to grow
• Virtual D-pad and longer sessions are back on the menu
• Esports will remain a curiosity rather than a growth driver
• Influencers / streamers will become an important marketing channel