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Portugal: If the Path Looks Too Promising, Let's Change It

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Portugal: If the Path Looks Too Promising, Let's Change It Jan von Gerich Portugal: If the path looks too promising, let’s change it Nordea Research, 21 October 2015 The Portuguese economy has seen a good start to its recovery, boosted by the firm commitment to reforming the economy. As is so often the case, the reform path has been painful and there has been too little patience to wait for the full benefits. A new government now threatens to undo some of the earlier progress, clouding the outlook and risking new tensions with the EU. While another debt crisis looks remote, the Portuguese situation suggests similar problems may be ahead in other countries. The Portuguese economy has started to recover at a decent pace from its crisis. While real GDP remains around 7% below its early 2008 peak, it has recovered by almost 3% from the 2012 lows. The unemployment rate, in turn, has fallen by more than 5%-points from its highs. Portuguese economy made a lot of progress lately nexus.nordea.com/research While easy monetary policy, a gradual Euro-area recovery, lower oil prices and the weaker euro have also been helpful, the economic reforms conducted have certainly played their part. Naturally, such reforms also involve some pain, at least in the short term, which has taken a toll on the centre-right government (PSD / CDS-PP), which lost its majority in the elections held earlier this month. Unfortunately for the PSD / CDS-PP, the recovery does not seem to have taken place fast enough to boost its popularity among the voters. Reform progress threatened The PSD / CDS-PP coalition (Portugal Ahead) won 102 seats in October’s elections, and 5 more in regions the ruling parties run separately, still short of the 116 needed for a majority in the 230-seat Portuguese parliament. The main opposition Socialist Party took 86 seats. Right after the elections it looked probably the previous government would continue to rule as a minority government, but lately the odds for the formation of an alternative government have risen. Together with the Left Bloc (BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), the Socialist Party would have a majority of 122 seats. These parties have very different goals and ideologies, with e.g. the stance towards EU a big dividing factor (BE and PCP are anti-EU parties and have talked about the need for government debt restructuring). Recent reports suggest that the parties have come closer in terms of agreeing on a government programme, which has opened the door for the formation of a left-wing government. Among the measures flagged, the left-wing government would reportedly seek to reverse the earlier public-sector wage cuts in full next year, keeping taxes high, while pensions would be unfrozen. Portuguese election results made forming a government difficult nexus.nordea.com/research Any government to look unstable Portuguese President Silva will appoint the Prime Minister in the coming days, but it seems irrespective of the outcome, the formation of a durable government will not happen. The minority government of the PSD / CDS-PP could quickly be voted down by the opposition, as has been threatened. A leftish government, in turn, would probably survive for a somewhat longer time, but the major ideological differences would probably make such a government rather divided. In short, it is hard to see how political uncertainty could be resolved in the near term. Tensions with the EU looming – Spain a bigger risk The emergence of a left-wing government would most likely mean Portugal missed the public-sector deficit targets agreed with the EU, and run a deficit above 3% of GDP next year. Such plans would once again put the EU’s new stability rules to the test, and risk further tensions in enforcing the rules. Portugal is a small country, but the Portuguese developments very much suggest big problems could be ahead in Spain following its elections in December. While the recent polls have increased the probability of a market-friendly government emerging, the risks of an anti-reform government emerging remain large, which would be a much bigger problem for the Euro area than what is currently going on in Portugal. nexus.nordea.com/research Also Ireland is heading into elections early next year, though there the voices coming from the opposition have been less critical compared to e.g. Spain. Despite the Greek example, it would clearly be too early to claim that the reform-minded side had won the war. Sovereign debt crisis still looks remote – further yield volatility does not Portuguese bond yields have seen some upward pressure lately on the back of increased political uncertainty, but in the bigger picture the moves have been rather limited. True, the 10-year yield has jumped by more than 20bp from its lows, but it remains almost 100bp lower compared to the June peak. Further, the spread to Germany has moved even less. The market can yet easily become more worried about the Portuguese outlook, but the ECB’s purchases should prevent another major sell-off. If a new Portuguese government assumed a programme that altered the outlook sufficiently to threaten the inclusion of Portuguese bonds in the ECB’s purchase programme, the rules of the game would change materially. In that case, big moves in Portuguese bond yields would quickly become much more likely. In the bigger picture, the recent moves barely visible Portuguese spreads not moved much on the back of political uncertainty nexus.nordea.com/research nexus.nordea.com/research Disclaimer and legal disclosures Disclaimer Origin of the publication or report This publication or report originates from: Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Danmark A/S, Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Norge ASA (together the “Group Companies” or “Nordea Group”) acting through their unit Nordea Markets. The Group Companies are supervised by the Financial Supervisory Authority of their respective home countries. Content of the publication or report This publication or report has been prepared solely by Nordea Markets. Opinions or suggestions from Nordea Markets may deviate from recommendations or opinions presented by other departments or companies in the Nordea Group. The reason may typically be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, contexts or other factors. 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