Trading with Costco
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Trading with Costco Identifying how it plans to win and the supplier opportunities February 17 © IGD 2017 Page 1 Introduction This insight report was prepared by: Stewart Samuel Based in North America, Stewart Program Director, IGD Canada heads up all of IGD's research and coverage on the region. He regularly [email protected] travels across the US and Canada, @Stewart_IGD visiting stores, and meeting with senior retail and supplier teams. Costco continues to be one of the most successful retailers globally. For several years it has delivered consistent sales and profit growth, in the US and across its international markets. Currently it is the second largest retailer globally based on sales. At a time when other retailers have been testing and developing new store formats and aggressively pursuing ecommerce and digital initiatives, Costco has remained focused on its core offer. However, the retailer is making a more determined push with ecommerce and is set to expand its presence into two new markets this year. In this report we look at how the retailer plans to grow and develop over the next five years, and the opportunities for suppliers to engage in key markets. © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 2 Inside this report Costco today and tomorrow Costco in key markets Strategic priorities Supplier opportunities © IGD 2017 Page 3 Costco operates over 700 clubs across nine countries, with over 86m members. It Costco today plans to open its first clubs in France and Iceland this year. It also sells in China through its online Tmall store. While many of its existing markets offer significant expansion opportunities, regions such as Latin America and the Middle East and Africa could, over the long-term, be a source of future growth. Current markets Future markets Ecommerce only © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 4 Costco tomorrow Country $m 2016 $m 2021 CAGR % Clubs 2016 Clubs 2021 USA 86,579 109,865 4.9% 501 585 Canada 16,756 21,690 5.3% 91 110 Mexico 2,670 3,570 6.0% 36 41 UK 2,749 3,693 6.1% 28 33 Japan 2,611 3,131 3.7% 25 29 Australia 1,116 2,012 12.5% 8 15 South Korea 1,323 1,880 7.3% 12 17 Taiwan 1,165 1,746 8.4% 12 17 Spain 244 524 16.5% 2 6 Total 115,214 148,113 5.2% 715 853 © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 5 SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses • Successful operating model focused on the intersection of • Significantly invested in ‘big-box’ retailing; its model contrasts quality and value with the shift towards smaller formats • Demonstrated success with single core format, which has strong • Costco maintains a relative conservative approach to new store appeal globally growth • Continues to invest in developing its Kirkland Signature private • Current expansion plans are focused on tough and mature label range, offering further headroom for growth European markets Opportunities Threats • The retailer could significantly increase the pace of international • A change in leadership at Sam’s Club, and the ongoing expansion; Costco has no exposure in South America or the investment in digital initiatives could pose a stronger threat Middle East within its home market • Although it is increasing the pace of ecommerce investment, this • The development of alternative wholesale formats in Latin is an area where it could move even more quickly America could limit further opportunities for Costco in the region and in Mexico • Auto replenishment and online subscription services for commodity items © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 6 With operations across nine markets, soon to be 11, we review Costco’s priorities Key markets to across four of its current operations, and its future entry into the competitive French market. watch USA Canada UK China France © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 7 USA Costco’s home market represents 75% of all of its sales, making success here essential in Sales 2017-2021f determining the overall performance of the 120,000 company. While Costco faces a significant competitor in 100,000 the form of Walmart’s Sam’s Club operation, its growth has outpaced this business for 80,000 several years. 60,000 However, with a number of new initiatives launched to re-position Sam’s Club, and US $m 40,000 channel leadership established with its digital and ecommerce programs, Costco could see 20,000 a more formidable competitor emerge. 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Club Online The US market leads Costco’s ecommerce The US market accounts for around initiatives, particularly in terms of half of all Costco’s new store openings partnerships with third-party companies each year. The retailer continues to which deliver its in-club offer. Success here see significant scope for further could lead to similar partnerships being set expansion both with its core model up in other markets. and its Business Centres. © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 8 Canada Canada has been one of Costco’s most successful international markets for a Sales 2017-2021f number of years. 35,000 In addition to developing a proposition which 30,000 has resonated strongly with Canadian shoppers, the retailer has faced limited 25,000 competition in the channel. 20,000 However, more recently Loblaw has started to place an increased focus on its Wholesale 15,000 Club format, although the offer remains more CAD $m 10,000 focused on business owners, compared to Costco which benefits from a solid base of 5,000 individual shoppers. 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Club Online As Costco approaches 100 clubs in Canada, Costco will open seven new clubs in it is getting close to its headroom. However, the current financial year, including its there is potentially room for more sites than first Business Centre outside of the initially anticipated in order to relieve US. This represents a significant pressures on existing locations. Expect to ramping up of new space as it looks to also see a stronger focus on ecommerce. build on its existing success in the market. © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 9 United Kingdom Costco launched in the UK in 1991, and now has 28 warehouses in the market, making it Sales 2017-2021f Costco’s fourth largest national operation, and the biggest outside of the Americas. 3,500 Owing to trading regulations, Costco UK has 3,000 a stronger ‘trade’ focus than other markets, 2,500 specifically targeting independent retailers and caterers, both with discounted 2,000 membership and longer warehouse opening 1,500 hours. Sales £m Sales 1,000 The online offer was launched in 2012 and has grown quickly (now worth almost 3% of 500 total sales). It is also rolling out gas stations to expand its warehouse offer, with four now 0 operating and more in development. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expansion in the UK has been steady rather Club Online than spectacular, slowed by restrictions in development regulation. However, Costco New space is forecast to drive around opens 1-2 sites each year, and sees overall half of total sales growth ongoing. As potential for up to 40 in the market. well as adding new services, Costco UK has successfully driven like-for-like Future growth will also be supported by sales with ongoing improvements and online development, as well as adding Price-marked packs for resale, targeting independent retail customers. promotional activity focused in its food services like gas stations to existing sites. and sundries categories. © IGD 2017 Source: www.costco.co.uk and IGD Research Page 10 Australia Costco first entered the Australian market in 2009, with the initial stores among the most Sales 2017-2021f successful it has opened globally. Since then 3,000 the retailer has gone on to grow its estate and attract new shoppers to its proposition; it is estimated to have around 150,000 2,500 members. 2,000 It continues to leverage its advantage as the only retailer with a complete food, general 1,500 merchandise and clothing offer under one roof. AUS $m 1,000 500 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 The main aim for Costco Australia is to build Costco is expected to open two further scale in major cities before embarking on the clubs in 2017, with its sales expected roll-out of the brand to smaller cities. The to break the $2bn barrier in 2018. market holds significant potential for the retailer to continue growing share through a run rate of one to two new clubs each year. © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 11 China Costco entered China in 2015 through its strategic partnership with Alibaba’s Tmall. While this has been a major success for Costco, no decision has yet been made with regards to building a physical presence. The partnership has enabled it to leverage Tmall’s existing customer base and logistics infrastructure. Walmart continues to generate strong appeal with its club format, Sam’s Club, both through its physical stores and, more recently, online through its partnership with JD.com in China. Although this suggests a solid growth opportunity for Costco, the forecasted growth for the online channel in China provides the retailer with a solid run-way for growth through continuing to grow the product range. © IGD 2017 Source: IGD Research Page 12 France To maintain hypermarkets and, albeit France is a price-focused market. to a lesser degree, supermarkets’ Leclerc maintains price leadership, Costco is expected to open its first club in relevance to today’s shoppers, with this accentuated by other’s recent France this year. This has been in retailers in France have been strongly financing of price cuts, which has development for a number of years as the investing in their stores to make them been enabled by buying alliances at a retailer has focused on securing the right more welcoming.