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Amazon's Moving Next Door Q2 2017 NORTH AMERICAN RETAIL REPORT AMAZON’S MOVING NEXT DOOR SARA MARTIN | WELSH COMPANIES One of the major retail headlines of the past several A combination of product pricing, store location and the months was the announcement of Amazon’s purchase of organic natural products themselves have ended up Whole Foods. The typical questions were asked right after creating a specific customer profile for Whole Foods. the announcement wondering what it means for the retail Starting with site selection, Whole Foods has methodically industry as a whole and just how different Whole Foods chosen locations based on high incomes and population could look in the coming years. Many have weighed in density. A recent Quartz study found that 1/3 of all U.S. with theories, but the only way to know for sure is to wait households with annual incomes over $100,000 live within and see. that 3-mile radius of a Whole Food Store. Impressive for only having 460 US stores. In other words, the Whole Some believe that Amazon will use a portion of the space Foods acquisition puts Amazon squarely into the key zip in the current stores for non-grocery products, like a codes it most covets. smart home showroom or a selection of home products and/or books. However, , Amazon purchased 460 Whole With 62% of Whole Foods customers already Prime Foods stores and all of them are subject to leases. If you members, there is still a wide net of customers for Amazon understand retail leases, you know that it is not always easy to gain. A survey by RBC Capital showed that 73% of Prime for tenants to change the type of product they sell. Each members made purchases on Amazon at least 2-3 times lease is different with a slightly-altered use clause and a per month. Only 22% of non-Prime customers shopped on variety of exclusives and restrictions depending on the co- Amazon with the same frequency. The Prime subscriptions tenancy. This makes it difficult for Amazon to implement themselves have a real tangible value as well. Estimates wide-ranging changes to offerings in existing stores. For for 2016 showed that $6.4 billion were made from Prime example, Best Buy will probably not be excited to waive subscriptions alone. One of the other key benefits for their electronics exclusive for the benefit of Whole Foods. Amazon is the ability to track consumer habits in a retail environment and then to combine that with the data If we assume that Amazon is going to allow Whole Food already collected on online activity. There is a lot of upside to be Whole Foods, what will the impact be on the grocery for Amazon that has nothing to do with selling apples. industry? If you consider that about $800 billion are spent on groceries every year and Whole Foods only owns $16 The take away from this as it relates to the impact on the billion of that, the answer in the near term is, not much. retail industry is this: the world’s largest online retailer has Since we’re talking about Amazon and doing nothing is decided that having brick and mortar stores is important not likely, the Whole Foods customer can expect to see enough to spend $13.4 billion to get a foot in the door. changes in areas like the rewards program, online ordering The retail industry has evolved over multiple decades with and other technological advances. new retail concepts coming in to replace those that have The real question is why would Amazon decide to take on not kept up with consumer demands. If the next retailer this many brick and mortar stores and pay $30 million per looking for space is Amazon, there will always be a broker leased location? The answer is simple: the Whole Foods or a landlord ready with a lease in hand. customer. RETAIL MARKET STATISTICS VACANCY & ABSORPTION TRENDS US VACANCY STAYS AT 4.8% NET ABSORPTION: 16,044,274 SF 214,342 SF (Q1 2017) 2,980,968 SF (Q2 2016) TOP 5 CITIES FOR NEW RETAIL CONSTRUCTION RANKED BY UNDER CONSTRUCTION SF NOTABLE STORE CLOSURESS 375 of 1,300 106 stores 400 of 1,200 reamining stores stores 171 stores 30 stores 400 of 4,400 375 of 1,300 reamining stores stores 132 stores RETAILER SPOTLIGHT: LIDL Lidl (pronounced LEE-dil) is yet another German continue to clash as Lidl brings its unique product specialty grocer, but this one holds the title of Europe’s offerings to the US. largest discount grocery chain operating more than 10,000 stores in 26 countries. Lidl has been described Many believe Lidl’s entry into the US market is what as cross between Wal-Mart and Trader Joes. Its first US sparked Aldi’s announcement of a 3.8 billion dollar stores have been just 20,000 square feet and have only investment in new US stores in June. Aldi currently has six aisles. They pack a lot into those six aisles, carrying 1,600 US store and plans to add 900 more over the next home appliances, furniture and clothing in addition to five years. organic foods, meats, dairy and packaged food items. Ninety percent of the products sold at Lidl are private- Lidl has opened 17 US stores in Virgina and the label brands. Lidl reports to be priced ten to fifteen Carolinas since June and is working on deals in several percent lower than traditional grocery stores. more states. Although it is very early, it seems we need to add one more entrant into the American war for the Lidl, like its German counterpart Aldi, takes the no frills grocery dollar. approach to grocery, displaying their products in the cartons and requiring their customers to bring their own bags. Where Lidl differs is that it sources local products from the US and carries more than just groceries. It seems these two fierce European competitors will Q2 2017 X TEAM STATISTICS $200 M $400 M $600 M $800 M 20 M 15 M 10 M $0 M $1 B 0 M 5 M LEASED ($VOLUME) $4.7 MILLION(Q22017) SALES SF(MILLIONSOFSF) $685 MILLION(Q22017) Q2 2015 $609 M Q2 2015 3.75 M Q3 2015 $786 M Q3 2015 10.24 M Q4 2015 $723 M Q4 2015 8.3 M Q1 2016 $820 M Q1 2016 9.0 M Q2 2016 $724 M Q2 2016 19.7 M Q3 2016 $706 M Q3 2016 9.9 M Q4 2016 $588 M Q4 2016 5.7 M Q1 2017 $733 M Q1 2017 4.5 M Q2 2017 $685 M Q2 2017 4.7 M 10. M $400 M $200 M $300 M $250 M $350 M $100 M $150 M 8. M 6. M 2. M 0. M 4. M $50 M $0 M $354 MILLION(Q22017) SALES ($VOLUME) 4.8 MILLION(Q22017) LEASED SF(MILLIONSOFSF) Q2 2015 4.83 M Q2 2015 $334 M Q3 2015 9.26 M Q3 2015 $340 M Q4 2015 5.84 M Q4 2015 $206 M Q1 2016 $376 M Q1 2016 5.30 M Q2 2016 $224 M Q2 2016 5.0 M Q3 2016 $259 M Q3 2016 5.2 M Q4 2016 $229 M Q4 2016 9.1 M Q1 2017 $192 M Q1 2017 4.4 M Q2 2017 $354 M Q2 2017 4.8 M HIGHLIGHTED LEASE TRANSACTION LOS ANGELES, CA: EL SEGUNDO / MANHATTAN BEACH UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Fast Casual / QSR development with tenant openings starting in Q4 of 2017. The project consists of 3 small restaurant buildings totally approximately 13,240 SF and will be home to 6 different Fast Casual and Quick Service Restaurant tenants. The total consideration for the 6 restaurant deals amounted to $10,753,475.00 with average annual starting rents of $78/SF. FUTURE TENANTS: Shake Shack, Tender Greens, Pier 76 Fish Grill, Philz Coffee, and Calo Kitchen + Tequila. Dave Binney of Cypress Retail Group was the listing broker for the Ownership, Continental Development Corp. TOP X TEAM DEALS IN Q2 BUSINESS ACTIVITY STATISTICS SALE VOLUME $ SALE VOLUME SF Investment Sale: $7,150,000 Land Sale: 10.8 acres Office: John Cumbelich & Associates Office: Velocity Retail Group Broker(s): John Cumbelich / Chris Micco Broker(s): Brian Gast LEASE VOLUME $ LEASE VOLUME SF QSR Development: $10,753,475 Midwest Industrial Rubber: 50,479 SF Office: Cypress Retail Group Office: Lane 4 Property Group Broker(s): Dave Binney (Shake Shack, Tender Greens, Pier 76 Fish Grill, Philz Coffee, Broker(s): Tom O’Leary Calo Kitchen + Tequila) X TEAM PARTNER OFFICES Vancouver Calgary Seattle Montreal Portland Boston Minneapolis Detroit NJ & NY San Francisco Chicago Clevland Salt Lake City Indianapolis Denver Cincinnati Richmond Washington D.C. Kansas City Las Vegas Norfolk St. Louis Los Angeles Raleigh Newport Nashville Knoxville Charlotte Beach Birmingham Phoenix Atlanta Dallas Austin Jacksonville Houston New Orleans Tampa San Antonio Fort Lauderdale For Questions/Information contact: Dave Cheatham | XTEAM President [email protected] | 602.682.8100 Jennifer Timothy | XTEAM Coordinator [email protected] | 602.332.7876.
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