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Evolution and Outlook of the Syrian Crisis

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Evolution and Outlook of the Syrian Crisis The Civil War in Syria Keys Evolution and Outlook of the Syrian Crisis The Civil War in Syria War The Civil Ignacio Álvarez-ossorio1 government. Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Professor of Arab and Islamic Studies does not speak with a single voice or have a com- University of Alicante mon strategy. In all, there are more than a thousand rebel military units, each one fighting its own war. Some human rights organisations, such as Human The Syrian crisis has become a tough knot to un- Rights Watch, have expressed concern for the war ravel. The relentless battle that Bashar al-Assad’s crimes being committed not only by the regime, but regime is waging against the opposition is com- also the rebels, including torture and the summary pounded by the intrigues of the regional powers that execution of prisoners. Moreover, the last year has have become involved, directly or indirectly, in the witnessed a dangerous radicalisation of the rebels conflict, making it that much harder to find a solution. due to their infiltration by hundreds of Arab Islamists Following the start of the popular mobilisations on seeking to wage their own jihad against the regime, 15 March 2011, the Syrian regime bet the house on which they consider to be apostate because of the the so-called “military solution.” In President Assad’s predominance in it of the Alawite minority. 13 view, it was a struggle to the death that could only have one winner. The human cost of the first two years of the crackdown has been high: 70,000 a badly Wounded regime deaths, one million refugees to neighbouring coun- tries, and another three million internally displaced The Syrian crisis has continued to mutate since it persons. To halt the rebels’ advance, the regime has first broke out two years ago. What began as an not hesitated to use its heavy artillery, shelling entire anti-authoritarian uprising became, from the summer towns and cities from both ground and air. In addi- of 2011 on, an armed conflict between two clearly tion to the regular troops, it has deployed the shabi- distinct sides. Today, it is possible to speak of a me- ha, death squads thought to be responsible for mul- dium-intensity civil war with the active involvement of tiple massacres. However, despite its overwhelming neighbouring countries: Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia military superiority, the regime has continued to lose and Qatar. ground and is on the defensive. Once it became clear that the demonstrators would The rebels, in turn, have embarked on a civil war of not be deterred by cosmetic reforms, Assad opted uncertain duration without first calculating its costs. for the “military solution,” which, in turn, convinced the 2013 The opposition remains seriously divided, as evi- opposition of the need to take up arms to defend denced by the recent resignation of Moaz al-Khatib, the population. The Syrian President proceeded to head of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolution- burn all his bridges. Of the all-encompassing, all- ary and Opposition Forces, and the widespread powerful state of yore, all that remains today is a criticism of the choice of the hitherto unknown rickety and crumbling façade. The regime’s authority Ghassan Hitto, a businessman who has lived in Tex- has been heavily eroded, as it has lost control of part as for the last three decades, to head the interim of the country. As a result of this weakness, it has Mediterranean Yearbook Med. Med. 1 This text was finalised before May 2013 (Editor’s note) IE been forced to resort to increasingly emphatic a Fragmented opposition Keys means to halt the rebels’ advance. The massacre of defenceless populations has become widespread, One reason for the Syrian regime’s continued sur- as witnessed by the cases of Hula and Deraya (to vival two years after the start of the uprising is the name just two examples), as has the use of weapons fragmented nature of the opposition, which has of war (including Scud missiles and MiG-21 fight- proven incapable of uniting around a common action ers) against rebel-controlled neighbourhoods, which plan and is divided with regard to what strategy to has had a staggering cost in terms of human life and take. The fragile internal cohesion, lack of resources has accelerated the exodus of the population. and dependence on its sponsors are some of the The climate of chaos has spread through much of limitations affecting the Syrian National Council the country, with armed militias imposing their own (SNC).2 This weakness is largely due to the system- The Civil War in Syria War The Civil law and organised crime groups engaging in extor- atic persecution suffered by the opposition during tion and looting. Moreover, the economic crisis has the fifty years of Baathist rule. grown more acute as a result of the sanctions im- In response to pressure from the Friends of Syria posed by the US and the EU. The Syrian pound con- group, the SNC undertook, through the “National tinues to slide and has fallen from 50 to 130 to the Covenant for a New Syria,” to unify the ranks of the dollar. The prices of basic necessities, such as bread opposition. On 11 November 2012, in Doha, the and petrol, have doubled or tripled, and most cities National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Op- are facing shortages. position Forces was formed, led by Moaz al-Khatib, Moreover, the regime has suffered several major the former imam of the Umayyad Mosque. Colonel blows in the last year, among others, the assassina- Abdel Jabbar al-Oqaidi was chosen to head the tion of the military leadership responsible for manag- FSA’s Military Council. The Muslim Brotherhood ing the crisis (including the Defence Minister Daoud (MB) retained a large share of power and emerged Rajiha, the Deputy Defence Minister Assef Shawkat, as the backbone of the new formation, recognised 14 and the head of the security forces’ crisis manage- as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people ment office Hassan Turkmani) and the defection of by the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League key figures (such as Prime Minister Riad Hijab, Gen- and the members of the Friends of Syria group. eral Manaf Tlass of the Republican Guard, and the At the military level, the rebel forces, grouped around Ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf Fares). the FSA, have made significant progress, such as Given this explosive situation, Assad has chosen to taking much of the provinces of Hama and Idlib and use a strategy of “divide and conquer,” trying to open certain neighbourhoods of Aleppo, the country’s up schisms within the population by manipulating its second-largest city. They moreover control some confessional heterogeneity. In some communities, border controls with Turkey and Iraq and various mili- there is a growing fear that Syria will follow in the tary bases. However, the rebels’ advance has been footsteps of Iraq and become embroiled in a sectar- hindered by their inability to coalesce into a united ian war. The car bomb blasts in the Christian neigh- front. Indeed, there are currently more than a thou- bourhood of Bab Tuma, the Shiite shrine of Sayyida sand militias operating on the ground, some of which Zeinab, and the Druse district of the suburb of Jara- do not recognise the FSA’s authority. This atomisa- mana (all in or around Damascus) seem to confirm tion has served as a justification for the international these fears. The Alawite minority, which has enjoyed community’s refusal to arm the opposition. 2013 certain advantages for decades, fears persecution One of the greatest concerns for Western countries should the regime fall. Indeed, the UN’s Independent is the infiltration of radical Salafi groups. It is a self- International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian fulfilling prophecy, as the regime initially claimed to Arab Republic denounced, on 20 December 2012, be fighting al-Qaeda. It is precisely the paralysis of the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict fol- the international community, which was absent from lowing the massacre of 200 Alawites in the city of the early stages of the conflict, that has allowed the Mediterranean Yearbook Aqrab. regime to crush peaceful demonstrations and rebel Med. Med. 2 IE Álvarez-OssOriO, Ignacio. “Le Conseil National Syrien: genèse, développement et défis.” Maghreb Machrek, vol. 213, p. 55-67, 2012. forces with impunity, thereby drawing more people to held from 25 to 26 March 2013, “I am opposed to the cause. The Western arms embargo on the rebels any type of external interference as it will clearly be Keys has simply increased their dependence on the Per- aimed at dividing Syria.” sian Gulf oil monarchies, which not only ship weap- ons but also aim to have a voice in post-Assad Syria. The influx of jihadist elements could have been pre- a negotiated Solution? vented if the international community had taken deci- sive action early on in the uprising, as it did in Libya. As Syria slides into the abyss, Western countries are engaging in doublespeak. Though they claim to sup- port the opposition, they maintain an arms embargo The fragile internal cohesion, lack of that serves only to perpetuate the military superiority The Civil War in Syria War The Civil resources and dependence on its of the regime, which is generously supplied by Rus- sponsors are some of the limitations sia and Iran. Despite the deteriorating situation on the ground, affecting the Syrian National Council the Obama Administration continues to support a negotiated situation. On 30 June 2012, talks were As it stands, a plethora of Salafist groups have a held in Geneva, attended by both the US and Rus- growing influence on the ground, including, among sia.
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