What the Tlass Defection Means to Assad | the Washington Institute

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

What the Tlass Defection Means to Assad | the Washington Institute MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds What The Tlass Defection Means to Assad by David Schenker Jul 6, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Schenker David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Articles & Testimony hursday came news that General Manaf Tlass, a senior commander of Syria's elite Republican Guard -- the T troops most directly responsible for defending the embattled Bashar Assad regime -- had defected to Turkey. While the operational impact his departure on his particular unit may be inconsequential, the impact on the popular uprising could be significant. Tlass was a regime insider, a member of the ruling Baath party's Central Committee and a childhood friend of the Syrian dictator. His father Mustafa Tlass was for more than three decades the Minister of Defense to Bashar's father, and his businessman brother Firas was close to and profited from ties to the Assads. In short, the Tlass clan represents the Sunni Muslim establishment that has served and benefitted from the minoritarian, nominally Shiite Alawite regime. Comprising just 11% of the population, Alawites like Assad rely on the loyalty of Sunni Muslim officers and conscripts to remain in power. Key units stacked with Alawites have been behind some of the most egregious massacres of the uprising. But since the uprising began, Sunni troops - whether out of fear or dedication - have also participated in great numbers in the suppression the revolt. As the atrocities against Syria's mostly Sunni civilians have mounted, however, the pace of defections appears to be accelerating. In addition to Tlass -- whose father and brother were purportedly abroad at the time of his departure -- some 84 soldiers, including a general and 14 officers, crossed into Turkey last week. And just a week earlier, a Syrian pilot who had likewise managed to smuggle his family out of the country decamped to Jordan with his MIG-21 fighter jet. Some 2,000 Syrian soldiers are now said to be in Turkey and countless others have abandoned their units to join the Free Syrian Army fighting the regime. These soldiers, aided by a more consistent source of weapons and ammunition reportedly provided by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, appear to be improving FSA effectiveness of the ground. Meanwhile, as casualty rates among the Syrian military spike, conscription rates have plummeted. Tlass himself does not appear to be a particularly sympathetic character. In addition to being a long-time associate of the authoritarian regime, during the past 15 months, he -- as co-commander of the 105th Brigade of the Republican Guard -- has been implicated in the bloodshed. According to Human Rights Watch, the brigade was routinely ordered to "shoot at protestors." But even if he's not the kind of figurehead Washington can optimally support, Tlass can serve a useful purpose. Tlass appears to have residual appeal with some Sunni Muslims, and it is possible his departure could embolden fellow Sunni soldiers and even prompt a mass exodus from Assad's military. While this kind of fissure may ultimately be necessary to bring down the Assad regime, it is not without downsides. Should Sunnis leave the military and join the opposition wholesale, for example, it could reinforce the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict. Such a trend could, after Assad's departure, trigger reprisals against the Alawites and other communities -- like Christians -- perceived to have been supporting the regime. But few other good options remain. After nearly 15 months of killing, Bashar Assad is not willingly going to participate in a process of surrendering power, and with Russia obstructing meaningful international action and little international appetite for military action, it increasingly seems that regime removal will have to be affected by the Syrians themselves. For Washington and the Syrian opposition, then, the key in the coming weeks will be to leverage Tlass' defection to foment a decisive fissure in the military. While Tlass may not hold the key to Syria's future, if properly handled, he could help close a gruesome chapter of Syria's past. David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. New York Daily News View/Print Page as PDF SHARE EMAIL ALERTS Sign Up TO TOP RECOMMENDED BRIEF ANALYSIS Cairo Acts on its Fears of Radicalization after Afghanistan Sep 24, 2021 ◆ Haisam Hassanein ARTICLES & TESTIMONY Transatlantic Cooperation on Countering Global Violent Extremism Sep 22, 2021 ◆ Matthew Levitt BRIEF ANALYSIS Fearing the Aftermath of the Elections: Will the Power Keg in Iraq Ignite? Sep 22, 2021 ◆ Munqith Dagher TOPICS Democracy and Arab and Islamic Politics Reform REGIONS & COUNTRIES Syria STAY UP TO DATE SIGN UP FOR EMAIL ALERTS 1111 19th Street NW - Suite 500 Washington D.C. 20036 Tel: 202-452-0650 Fax: 202-223-5364 Contact Press Room Subscribe The Washington Institute seeks to advance a balanced and realistic understanding of American interests in the Middle East and to promote the policies that secure them. The Institute is a 501(c)3 organization; all donations are tax-deductible. About TWI / Support the Institute © 2021 All rights reserved. Employment / Privacy Policy / Rights & Permissions.
Recommended publications
  • Confronting Assad's Anti-Semitism in Germany | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / Fikra Forum New Forms of Old Hate: Confronting Assad’s Anti-Semitism in Germany by Rawan Osman Feb 6, 2020 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Rawan Osman Rawan Osman was born in Damascus and raised in Lebanon. After high school, Osman moved back to Syria and in 2011, during the beginning of the unrest, left for France. In 2018, Osman moved to Strasbourg and started working on her first book, "The Israelis, Friends or Foes." Brief Analysis ith this year’s International Holocaust Remembrance Day recognizing the 75th anniversary of the freeing W of Auschwitz, it is also important for the German public to address the potential implications of a new wave of anti-Semitism within its borders. Germany’s notable acceptance of over one million refugees from Syria, where anti-Semitic propaganda has been a key feature of the Assad family’s overall messaging, has both triggered both a rise in Germany’s far-right and brought Germany’s Jewish populations into contact with a new type of anti- Semitism developed as one method of control in the Assad dictatorship. The uncritically anti-Israel and anti-Semitic tropes that have been taught, promoted, or tolerated in Syria pose a new set of challenges to German authorities who are still wrestling with their country’s past. Germany, because of its history, has accepted upon itself a greater responsibility than other European countries to take in refugees. Now it must take on another major responsibility: effectively educating these communities about the Holocaust and the insidious nature of anti-Semitism.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran and Israel's National Security in the Aftermath of 2003 Regime Change in Iraq
    Durham E-Theses IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I How to cite: ALOTHAIMIN, IBRAHIM,ABDULRAHMAN,I (2012) IRAN AND ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/4445/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 . IRAN AND ISRAEL’S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2003 REGIME CHANGE IN IRAQ BY: IBRAHIM A. ALOTHAIMIN A thesis submitted to Durham University in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy DURHAM UNIVERSITY GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS March 2012 1 2 Abstract Following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran has continued to pose a serious security threat to Israel.
    [Show full text]
  • Senior Sunni Defections in Syria | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Alert Senior Sunni Defections in Syria by Andrew J. Tabler, Jeffrey White Jul 5, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Andrew J. Tabler Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. Jeffrey White Jeffrey White is an adjunct defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant and Iran. Brief Analysis The reported defection of a senior Sunni commander and friend of Assad, if true, would be a blow to the regime and an opportunity for Washington. eports that Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a Sunni commander in Syria's elite 105th Brigade, has defected to Turkey R could be a sign that Sunnis are beginning to break with the regime years after being co-opted by President Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafiz. Pro-regime websites have published articles critical of Tlass and his extended family, indicating a serious split. The son of former defense minister Mustafa Tlass, Manaf would be the most senior combat unit commander to have abandoned the regime, and his action highlights the mounting strains on the Syrian army. The 105th Brigade is a component of the Republican Guard Division, considered to be among the units most loyal to the regime. Tlass's forces have been heavily involved in violent actions against the armed and unarmed opposition in the Damascus area since the revolt began, though his effective degree of command over the unit is unclear.
    [Show full text]
  • Farouk Al-Shara
    Farouk al-Shara Siria, Vicepresidente de la República (2006-) y ministro de Exteriores (1984-2006) Duración del mandato: 21 de Febrero de 2006 - En funciones Nacimiento: Damasco, 10 de Diciembre de 1938 Partido político: Partido del Renacimiento Árabe Socialista (Baaz) Profesión : Funcionario y diplomático Resumen http://www.cidob.org 1 of 3 Biografía El veterano Farouk al-Shara, vicepresidente primero de Siria y antiguo ministro de Exteriores, es seguramente el rostro más conocido de la dictadura del partido Baaz fuera de los dos cabezas de la familia que la ha ejercido con puño de hierro en los últimos 43 años, Hafez al-Assad y su hijo Bashar. Muy activo en las palestras diplomáticas, donde defendió con ardor y lealtad las complicadas posiciones de Damasco, Shara viene mostrado sin embargo una actitud moderada y antibelicista, que alienta dudas sobre su grado de compromiso con el régimen, a lo largo del alzamiento popular y la guerra civil que desangran Siria desde 2011. Este notable damasceno de familia sunní recibió una educación anglófona en la Universidad de Damasco y la Universidad de Londres, donde estudió Derecho. Baazista de primera hora, con 25 años ingresó en el Comité Central del partido de ideología socialista y nacionalista panárabe; fue en 1963, justo el año en que el Baaz se hizo con el poder por la vía de un golpe de Estado militar- revolucionario. Un largo ejercicio como encargado de la oficina de la aerolínea nacional en el Reino Unido precedió su ingreso en el cuerpo diplomático en 1977, cuando fue destinado como embajador a Italia.
    [Show full text]
  • The Factory: a Glimpse Into Syria's War Economy
    REPORT SYRIA The Factory: A Glimpse into Syria’s War Economy FEBRUARY 21, 2018 — ARON LUND PAGE 1 After the October 2017 fall of Raqqa to U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab guerrillas, the extremist group known as the Islamic State is finally crumbling. But victory came a cost: Raqqa lies in ruins, and so does much of northern Syria.1 At least one of the tools for reconstruction is within reach. An hour and a half ’s drive from Raqqa lies one of the largest and most modern cement plants in the entire Middle East, opened less than a year before the war by the multinational construction giant LafargeHolcim. If production were to be resumed, the factory would be perfectly positioned to help rebuild bombed-out cities like Raqqa and Aleppo. However, although the factory may well hold one of the keys to Syria’s future, it also has an unseemly past. In December 2017, French prosecutors charged LafargeHolcim’s former CEO with terrorism financing, having learned that its forerunner Lafarge2 was reported to have paid millions of dollars to Syrian armed groups, including the terrorist- designated Islamic State.3 The strange story of how the world’s most hated extremist group allegedly ended up receiving payments from the world’s largest cement company is worth a closer look, not just for what it tells us about the way money fuels conflict, but also for what it can teach us about Syria’s war economy—a vast ecosystem of illicit profiteering, where the worst of enemies are also partners in business.
    [Show full text]
  • Work in the Syrian Army
    Restructuring the army in the new Syria Major General Muhammad Al-Haj Ali Author: political research Brigadier Khaled Ibrahim Harmoon Center For Contemporary Studies Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies is an independent nonprofit research institution, focusing on the production of political, societal and intellectual studies and research related particularly to the Syrian issue, and the possible outcomes of ongoing conflict in Syria. The center is concerned with bolstering civil society and democratic. awareness. Harmoon Center also works on Arab issues and related conflicts, as well as Arab regional and international . relations The Center undertakes practical projects and activities, promotes initiatives for building Syria’s future on the foundations and values of democracy, freedom, equality, human rights, and equal citizenship rights. Harmoon Center strives to be platform for constructive dialogue and an arena . for exchanging ideas Harmoon Center For Contemporary Studies Restructuring the army in the new Syria Major General Muhammad Al-Haj Ali, Principal Researcher Brigadier General Khaled Ibrahim, Research Assistant Harmoon Center For Contemporary Studies Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................... 6 First: The impact of war on the Syrian Army .................................................................7 The impact on the Syrian army prior to the Baath takeover of power ................................
    [Show full text]
  • Significant Regime Defection in Syria | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Alert Significant Regime Defection in Syria by Andrew J. Tabler Sep 5, 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Andrew J. Tabler Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. Brief Analysis embers of the Syrian opposition are correct in describing Alawite army general Ali Habib Mahmoud's M "defection" to Turkey over the past few days as a "blow to the morale" of the Assad regime. He is the most prominent military official to leave Syria since the July 2012 departure of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, who came from a prominent family and was at one point close to Bashar al-Assad. Habib became army chief of staff in 2004 and defense minister in 2009. He was the first Alawite to serve in the latter post since Hafiz al-Assad relinquished it in 1972, after which it was reserved for figurehead Sunnis. He is well respected among Syrians for resigning in August 2011, when the regime ramped up its murderous attempt to shoot the people into submission on the eve of Ramadan; this came shortly before President Obama declared that Assad must "step aside." Although Habib officially resigned for "health reasons," it was widely rumored at the time that he differed with the Assad family's approach to the uprising. Habib has not been part of the regime's core for some time, though he remains sanctioned by the United States and EU for having served as defense minister (see Policy Watch 2122 and its accompanying chart for more on the regime's structure).
    [Show full text]
  • The Syrian People's New Weapon Against Assad: Boycotts Syrian
    http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/the-syrian-people-s-new-weapon-against-assad- boycotts-1.377913 10 de Agosto de 2011 The Syrian people's new weapon against Assad: Boycotts Syrian protesters are calling on citizens to boycott products made or imported by friends of the regime, and are hoping foreign governments freeze investment in the country. By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Arab Spring Syria "This product is not for eating, it's for killing," warns a picture showing a young Syrian holding a container of Nutella hazelnut and chocolate spread while his face is smeared red as if with blood. "I am boycotting it - and what about you?" the writing at the bottom of the advertisement asks. An explanation is added: "Nutella chocolate - one percent chocolate and 99 percent humiliation." Why has the Facebook page of the Syrian protest movement decided to harass Nutella of all products? Because its importer, Habib Betinjaneh and his sons Tony and Iyad, announced support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Betinjaneh is also one of the biggest distributors of basic foodstuffs such as rice and sugar, a member of the board of directors of the one of the largest insurance companies in Syria, and a close friend of the Assad family. Betinjaneh's eponymous company is not the only firm to be on the boycott list of the Syrian protest movement. Dozens of companies and businesses were named last week by the movement, which called on the citizens to refrain from doing business with them. This included the car company controlled by Assad's cousin Rami Makhlouf, as well as companies owned by Firas Tlass, the son of former defense minister Mustafa Tlass, and the businesses of Habib Al-Houli, who was previously head of Intelligence in the Syrian air force and now serves as a special adviser to Assad.
    [Show full text]
  • Sanctioning Assad's Syria
    DIIS REPORT 2012:13 DIIS REPORT SANCTIONING ASSAD’S SYRIA MAPPING THE ECONOMIC, SOCIOECONOMIC AND POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS IMPOSED ON SYRIA SINCE MARCH 2011 Rune Friberg Lyme DIIS REPORT 2012:13 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2012:13 © Copenhagen 2012, the author and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover photo: Protests in Damascus against EU sanctions. © bassim/Xinhua Press/Corbis Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-519-6 (pdf ) ISBN 978-87-7605-520-2 (print) Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk This report was commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but its findings and conclusions are entirely the responsibility of the author. Rune Friberg Lyme, Research Assistant [email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2012:13 Contents Executive summary 5 1. Introduction 11 1.1 About this report 12 1.2 Structure of the report 12 2. The Syrian economy and power structure reconfiguration in the 2000s 14 2.1 Selective liberalisation process during the 2000s 14 2.2 The basic structure of the Syrian economy 16 2.3 Increasing social and regional inequalities 18 2.4 Reconfiguring the authoritarian powerbase 20 2.5 A decade of shifting power alliances and increasing socioeconomic inequality 23 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Searching for Salvation: Yassin Al-Haj Saleh and the Writing of Modern Syria
    Searching for Salvation Yassin al-Haj Saleh and the Writing of Modern Syria FIRAS MASSOUH Student Number 147481 A Thesis submitted to the School of Social and Political Sciences in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Masters by Research School of Social and Political Sciences The University of Melbourne Australia Produced on Archival Quality Paper October 2015 Abstract Name : Firas Massouh Title : Searching for Salvation: Yassin al-Haj Saleh and the Writing of Modern Syria Department : School of Social and Political Sciences This thesis introduces the English reader to Syrian dissident intellectual Yassin al-Haj Saleh (b. 1961). Saleh spent 16 years in prison between 1980 and 1996 and since 2000 has been an active agent in redefining the role of the public intellectual within the oppressive environment of contemporary Syria. He has been audacious in tackling the themes of civil society, political and religious reform, modernity, the relationship between state and religion, secularism, and revolution. Saleh upholds a humanistic ideal of critique as a form of agency and social responsibility, maintains that ideology is the principle obstacle to human liberation, and argues for active discursive intervention as a primary way to incite social change. A prolific writer on intellectual and political questions of the Arab world and Syria in particular, he showed unwavering support for the Arab Spring revolts, particularly the Syrian one. When Syrian protestors eager for change challenged the Assad dictatorship, Saleh promptly followed suit and became one of the protest movement’s most astute participant- observers and critical chroniclers. By examining some of his major writings on the Assad dictatorship, the Syrian Revolution, and the subsequent war in Syria, this thesis positions his work as a product of his intellectual background and life experience.
    [Show full text]
  • When the Press Gathers in Damascus LETTERS by Andrew Tabler
    AJT-3 MIDDLE EAST Andrew Tabler is an Institute Fellow based in Damascus and Beirut studying Lebanese ICWA affairs and Syrian reform. When the Press Gathers in Damascus LETTERS By Andrew Tabler JUNE 2005 Since 1925 the Institute of DAMASCUS, Syria–As my mobile phone began ringing repeatedly at 6:40am on Current World Affairs (the Crane- June 6, I awoke with the realization that the day had finally come — the opening Rogers Foundation) has provided of the 10th Party Conference of the Syrian Ba’ath Party regional command. long-term fellowships to enable outstanding young professionals “We are just waiting around outside the Ministry of Information for our to live outside the United States badges,” said Hugh Macleod, assistant editor at Syria Today, a monthly English- and write about international language magazine I founded in 2004 with a Syrian colleague. “There is no sched- ule, and no one knows if we will have access to the conference center. It’s chaos.” areas and issues. An exempt operating foundation endowed by I was hardly surprised. In fact, I had purposely ignored the Ministry of the late Charles R. Crane, the Information’s instructions to arrive in front of Dar al Ba’ath, the ministry build- Institute is also supported by ing, before boarding buses out to the conference. It was not out of laziness, but contributions from like-minded rather based on my experience covering official Syrian events. About a month individuals and foundations. before, for example, I attended the official visit of Turkish President Ahmet Sezer to Syria. Arriving at 8am as instructed in a full suit, I waited with the rest of Syria’s press corps for two hours for Information Ministry officials to show up.
    [Show full text]
  • Siria » Bashar Al-Assad
    » Biografías Líderes Políticos (Only in spanish) » Asia » Siria » Bashar al-Assad Bashar al-Assad © UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe Siria Updatte:: 30 Septtemberr 2016 Presidente de la República (2000-) Term off offffiice:: 17 jjully 2000 -- Acttiing Biirtth:: Damasco,, 11 septtemberr 1965 Polliittiicall partty:: Parrttiido dell Renaciimiientto Árrabe Sociialliistta ((Baaz)) Proffessiion:: Médiico offttallmóllogo Edited by: Roberto Ortiz de Zárate Presentation Un suceso fortuito, la pérdida en accidente de su hermano mayor, convirtió en 1994 al joven oftalmólogo asentado en Londres que entonces era Bashar al-Assad en el delfín de su padre, Hafez al- Assad, tras cuya muerte en 2000 fue elegido, con 34 años, presidente de Siria. Protagonista de la primera sucesión dinástica en una república árabe, Bashar llegó al poder con una aureola de reformista benigno amigo de las nuevas tecnologías y capaz de poner un rostro humano al régimen intensamente dictatorial heredado del padre, bajo cuyo puño de hierro arraigaron en Siria la hegemonía del partido Baaz (socialista, nacionalista árabe y secular) y el Estado policíaco. Sin embargo, las esperanzas de apertura democrática, alentadas por unas amnistías parciales de presos políticos y un ensayo de libertad de expresión que fue conocido como la Primavera de Damasco, no tardaron en desvanecerse, mientras que la liberalización de la débil economía, de lo más cautelosa, tampoco trajo bienestar material a la población. Si el supuesto reformador de Siria inauguró su férula bajo la mirada vigilante de la vieja guardia baazista, sin duda pasó el examen. Assad, refrendado sin oposición en el cargo en 2007, confirmó y aún reforzó el vasto aparato de la seguridad interna, donde se solapan la solidaridad sectaria de la minoría islámica alauí y el puro exclusivismo del clan familiar del presidente.
    [Show full text]