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Home , Arab Spring, Khalifa Haftar, Sirte

Arab Spring and Libyan Developments

Mehmet Emir

Developments commonly referred to as the started to take effect in in 2011. By February 2011, public unrest and anti Gaddafi sentiments began to increase, the unrest that occurred in Libya eventually led to conflict in the country. The anti Gaddafi regimes launched an armed countermovement against Gaddafi's use of force and seized a significant part of the country. As a response to this, NATO intervened in the conflict, this was after countries such as Russia accepted a NATO led intervention. Countries such as , which were against the intervention later on changed their minds and started to involve themselves in the NATO operations.

With the support of NATO, the opponents of Gaddafi advanced to the capital on February 20. Transition Council was established on February 27 for the management of the territory under the control of the opposition. On March 10, became the first state to recognise the National Transitional Council as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Libyan Transitional Council has been recognized as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people and supported by Turkey. the first ambassador sent after passing the state's control of Tripoli, the Libyan Transitional Council has been Turkey. In the UN Security Council resolution 1973 taken on March 17, 2011; It was decided that Libya would be a no-fly zone, it was also established that all necessary measures ensuring the protection of civilians should be put in place. NATO forces, mainly the USA, France and Britain, carried out a military operation against Libya. , who was captured in on October 20, 2011, was lynched and killed by the opponents. The name of the state was changed to "Libyan State" on October 23, 2011. Libya started to be governed by the legislative body, the General National Congress and the newly established Transitional Government. General National Congress were held in Libya on 7 July 2012. The National Alliance of Powers won the elections, with 48% of the votes. Ali Zidan was appointed prime minister by the General National Congress on 14 November 2012. On February 20, 2014, the committee tasked with preparing the Constitution was elected. Abdullah al-Sani, the Minister of Security in the Zidan government, was elected prime minister on 11 March 2014.

In February 2014, no elections occurred in Libya and the term in office of the General National Assembly expired, partly as a response to the lack of elections, started to occur and led to violent conflict. The harmony that existed among the groups that wanted to have a say in the political future of Libya against Gaddafi began to deteriorate. (a former Libyan general and also a US citizen) started an attempt to gain military and political control over Libya, claiming that he acted against ISIS during this period. Haftar, who received active support from Russia and and the covert support of the USA and the EU, aimed to initiate the "second Gaddafi" period in Libya, claiming that he was fighting Islamists. He aimed to establish a regime similar to Sisi, which seized power with a military coup in Egypt.

On May 18, 2014, Haftar forces and some allied tribes reached the suburbs of the capital Tripoli, with the support of Russian . In Haftar's military units, militias from and were extensively used. The played an active role in the transportation of these militias to Libya. Haftar's military siege, on the other hand, enabled the unification of different political groups in the competition in Tripoli and a political will to show military resistance against Haftar was strengthened in Tripoli. It was born in this context in a coalition called "Libyan Dawn" in Tripoli against Haftar.

In , an opposing coalition emerged known as the Benghazi Shura Council. Under the shadow of all these developments, general elections were held in Libya. Following the low turnout elections held in Libya on 25 June 2014, the National General Congress declared that it did not recognize the elections. The newly elected House of Representatives has also moved to in the east of the country, claiming that it cannot work in Tripoli. Aguila Saleh the chairman and most influential actor of the House of Representatives moved to Tobruk. It is known that Saleh has very strong relations with both Khalifa Haftar and Egypt. After this move, two councils emerged in Libya, fighting for power.

In Libya, which is governed by two different governments and divided into three geographical areas, the increasing involvement of foreign countries in this conflict and support they offer to different groups has played an important role in the deepening of the conflicts. As a result, the political division of Libya in the form of two separate assemblies and the government has become clear through the Tripoli-centered General National Congress and the Tobruk- centered House of Representatives. The Tobruk-based House of Representatives sided with General Haftar to seize power. On the other hand, Fayiz al-Sarac was appointed as the prime minister of the Government of National Consensus established within the framework of the Suheyrat Treaty reached in 2016 under the mediation of the and as the chairman of the Presidential Council.

Taking advantage of the complex political environment, ISIS took control of Libya in 2014 and 2015 in Sirte and Derne. The first success of the Government of National Consensus was the acquisition of Sirte, which was under ISIS control, in June 2016. ISIS's activities in Eastern Libya also prepared a legitimate ground for Haftar's military and political control in Eastern Libya. Khalifa Haftar and Tobruk Government expanded their domain in Eastern Libya, citing the struggle against ISIS as a reason. The , under Haftar's command, completely captured Benghazi in December 2017. Derne was taken under control by the Libyan National Army in February 2019. The armed forces of Haftar (Libyan National Army - LNA), who took control of the east of Libya, surrounded Tripoli in April 2019.

Turkey assessed the Libyan issue especially in relation to the eastern Mediterranean politics. Egypt, Israel and Greece, supported by the European Union, pursued a strategy to convict Turkey a narrow coastal strip in the eastern Mediterranean and Libya was a central piece of it. In this geopolitical context Turkey is compelled to pursue an active policy in Libya. The Government of National Reconciliation in this regard, on November 27, 2019 signed two agreements with Turkey: The Maritime Delimitation Agreement and the Military Cooperation Agreement. Maritime Delimitation Agreement has formed main axis of Turkey's eastern Mediterranean strategy. Different regional and superpower actors in Libya have acted against this diplomatic manoeuver of Turkey. Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in the one hand, the USA and the EU on the other hand have made explicitly or implicitly acted to help Haftar forces to gain control over Libya.

The parties to the war in Libya at the beginning of January 2020 came together in Moscow. Russia and Turkey brokered ceasefire. Turkey and Russia in coordination with Libya for the first time entered into this meeting seeking a solution. However, only Fayiz al- Sarac signed the text, General Khalifa Haftar asked for time first and then left the meeting.

With the political and military support of the Turkish government, the National Reconciliation Government was able to halt the advances of Haftar in Tripoli, by June 2020, they managed to gain control of five areas in Western Libya, including Tripoli, the capital. Haftar, who noticed that the Government of National Consensus could not seize Tripoli in the face of its military success, and that it might have difficulties to maintain its presence even in Eastern Libya, had to allow diplomatic efforts. After the Government of National Consensus took control of all Western Libya, it ended its military operations in front of Sirte in order to allow diplomatic initiatives. On 21 August 2020, both sides mutually declared a ceasefire.

It was observed that the coalition formed in Tripoli during this period started to crack. On 23 August 2020, the Government of National Consensus was protested in Tripoli due to the deterioration of living conditions and corruption. Interior Minister Fethi Basaga was first dismissed and then returned to his post. It started to appear more clearly in this period that the Government of National Consensus was a political harmony problem within itself.

The warring parties in Libya started to allow diplomatic efforts after the establishment of the military power balance. During the talks led by the United Nations on 23 October 2020, a consensus was reached on holding elections in the country on 24 December 2021, and an agreement was reached on the establishment of a temporary administration that will lead the country to elections.

The Libyan delegation, consisting of 75 representatives in Switzerland between 1-5 February 2021, elected the Transition Council of four people, which will rule the country until the elections on December 24, in the led by the United Nations organization. The new leader of the Presidential Council will be Muhammed Yunus el Menfi and Prime Minister Abdulhamid Muhammed Dibeybe. The other two names to take part in the Council are Musa el Koni, the former Vice President of the Presidential Council and Abdullah Hüseyin el Lafi. Abdulhamid Muhammed Dibeybe, a businessperson of verse, who completed his master's degree in engineering in Toronto, Canada. Dibeybe, who heads the Libya Development and Investment Company, is also the leader of the Future Stream Party. Libyan diplomat Mohammed Menfi was also the ambassador to Greece by the Tripoli government. However, in 2019, an agreement to do with Marine Jurisdiction was signed between the government in Tripoli and Turkey in Athens, Menfi was then deported. The interim administration will serve until December 24, 2021 and manage the selection process. Until the elections in December, the Tripoli-based Government of National Consensus and the House of Representatives in Tobruk will be administered from a single center by the new administration to be formed as a result of the vote.

There are also risks awaiting the Transition Council. First of all, a provisional government should be established by the prime minister within three weeks. The provisional government to be established must receive a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives. The head of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, said in a statement that the assembly would not give a vote of confidence if Tripoli is not cleared. From this statement, it is evaluated that some problems may arise in the vote of confidence for the provisional government. It has been undertaken to remove the foreign soldiers (including mercenaries) who were in Libya until the elections. Turkey's military presence in Libya are bound to international agreements made in the National Reconciliation Government. It is understood that with the new government to be elected democratically, it will take a new course in relations with Libya. From the perspective of Turkey, as long as foreign interventions continue to undermine Libya’s sovereignty and democratic processes, Turkey will continue its commitments in Libya. is highly unlikely that it will stop its commitments in Libya. The agreement also stipulated the liquidation of armed groups within the country. It does not seem possible for Haftar to give up his quest for a similar to Gaddafi. There are ambitious political goals that seem extremely difficult to achieve before the provisional government.