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Color Revolutions: Theory and Practice of Modern Political Regimes Dismantling

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Color Revolutions: Theory and Practice of Modern Political Regimes Dismantling КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 Манойло А.В. COLOR REVOLUTIONS: THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MODERN POLITICAL REGIMES DISMANTLING Аннотация. This paper analyses the problems connected with dismantling of political regimes in modern countries (both of authoritarian and democratic kind) that takes the form of colour revolutions. The role of state-organised party building in prevention of colour revolution and stabilisation of political situation is also considered. After the outbreak of the Arab Spring and the Ukrainian crisis, the problems mentioned have become acute and highly topical. In the world history there have always been place to dismantling of political regimes. In the past, however, it was performed through the use of force in its classical form, with the methods used during military takeovers, local military conflicts, civil wars, and military interventions. The global community succeeded in developing effective measures for combatting this threat and creating efficient mechanisms for political regulation at the international level. Though the severity of the problem connected with the threat of military takeovers in different countries is still on the agenda, the world community as a whole is familiar with this category of threats and knows how to counteract them. Ключевые слова: Конфликтология, внешняя политика, США, мягкая сила, цветные революции, демонтаж политических режимов, международный конфликт, международная стабильность, международная безопасность, международные отношения. t the same time, the world is changing, and can be interpreted as a recurring repetition of military takeovers are being replaced with one and the same pattern or scheme, which re- subtler technologies of colour revolutions, veals common features with the so called vel- Awhich are craftily hiding under the guise of genu- vet revolutions that destroyed the communist ine revolutionary movements and hardly meet any regimes in the East of Europe after the collapse opposition both on the part of developed democra- of the USSR. cies and on the part of the countries of the eastern This can hardly be regarded as purely ac- type who have preserved the traditional way of life. cidental. The countries that suffered a regime The repetition of the colour-revolution scenario change differ significantly in the level of political in Ukraine causes well-warranted concern, since organisation of power, the level of social and eco- it looks increasingly likely Ukraine being totally nomic development, and the range of unresolved not the final stage of the scenario but a pawn in a problems. The possibility of an exact coincidence geopolitical game, in which the attack planned by in scenarios in these countries is relatively, if not the US stage directors of colour revolutions may negligibly, small. focus on Russia, China, and Kazakhstan. In this respect, Syria and Libya are The reasons behind the increased interest in intrinsically different from Ukraine and Georgia. the issue of colour revolutions lie in the fact that It is easy to see, however, that the revolution of during the last three years a whole number of 2014 in Ukraine, which has become known as countries with quite stable political regimes had Euromaidan, coincides with the scenario of the experienced coups d’état, leading to complete Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, right down to or partial dismantling of their political regimes the behaviour pattern of the fighting parties. which for many years had successfully resisted All this may be regarded as indicative of a sit- enemies from within and without: e. g. Egyptian, uation when in two different counties and regions Tunisian, Syrian, and Libyan regimes had suc- we deal with one and the same phenomenon: the cessfully opposed Islamism. results of employing the technologies of colour Moreover, the scenarios of regime change in revolutions. However, despite the colourful name, these countries show a striking similarity, which there is nothing revolutionary about them. 40 Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИИ Even the western media today point out Colour revolutions have necessary and suf- that colour revolutions, which are described as ficient conditions for their successful implemen- technologies of conducting operations aimed at tation. exporting democracy through acts of civil dis- The necessary condition for engineering a obedience, have by now become so sophisticated colour revolution is political instability in the that their methods have turned into guidelines on country, accompanied by the crisis of incumbent changing political regimes1. authorities. If political situation in the country is Colour revolutions are technologies for en- stable, it has to be destabilized artificially. gineering a coup and controlling the political The sufficient condition is the existence of situation in the country from the outside, under a specially organised youth protest movement conditions of induced political instability, with (through a special network type of organisation). pressure on the government taking the form of po- Distinctive features of colour revolutions in- litical blackmail using youth protest movements clude the following: as its tool. The aim of any colour revolution is a • Colour revolutions affect the power in a coup d’état, that is, seizing and retaining power specific way — through political blackmail; by use of force. Despite the significant differenc- • The main leverage against the government es (geopolitical, social, economic and in inter- is the youth protest movement. national position) between the countries where Colour revolutions only superficially resem- these revolutions break out, they all fit into one ble real revolutionary movements; unlike the and the same scheme that includes the pattern of true revolutions caused by the intrinsic factors organising youth protest movement, transform- of historical development, colour revolutions are ing this movement into a political crowd, and us- technologies that misrepresent themselves as ing this force against the existing government as spontaneous processes. They are characterised by an instrument of political blackmail. This is an a theatrical level of «stage direction», which the explicit indication of the fact that colour revolu- western political analysts are trying to pass off as tions cannot, by definition, be a means of fulfilling unplanned and spontaneous manifestations of the the dreams and desires of the popular majority. will of the people who suddenly decided to regain Colour revolutions are not soft power; they the right to rule their own country. are instruments used for destroying transitory- The engineered scenario of any colour revolu- type democratic regimes, which were patterned tion is based on Anglo-Saxon (North-American) phi- after Anglo-Saxon models in non-western coun- losophy of democratisation, designed for exporting tries, bearing the sign of imitation. It would be fair democracy, democratic institutions, and values to to say that Americans not only created a model contiguous countries2. Technologies of colour rev- of the democratic state structure suitable for the olutions can only be put to practice successfully by purpose of exporting but also took the trouble their creators and developers, namely, the Anglo-Sax- to create special tools aimed at its destruction ons. In any country where a colour revolution starts, and dismantling, should the necessity arise. In one should look for a North-American imprint. modern world, such tools that serve as picklocks There are two explanations underlying the for breaking into political regimes of the liberal reasons behind colour revolutions: the theory of western kind are represented by the technologies a spontaneous process and the theory of a staged of colour revolutions. process (accidental versus non-accidental). Both The aim of any colour revolution is a coup explanations can find their justification and nei- d’état, that is, seizing and retaining power by use ther is indisputable. of force. Advocates of the spontaneous theory claim For colour revolutions, the government and that the reason behind colour revolutions is intrin- its relations are the objective, while the political regime is their target. 2 Hale, H.E, «Democracy or Autocracy on the March? The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics of Patronal 1 Kara-Murza, S., Export of Revolution: Saakashvili, Presidentialism», Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Yushchenko, and others, Moscow, 2005. vol. 39, no. 3, 2006, pp. 305–329. Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com 41 DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 sic social conflicts that manifest themselves in the First, a distinct Anglo-Saxon foreign-policy form of popular uprisings and mass protest of the imprint, their unique working style. «oppressed» population. Among the causes they Second, the plan of any colour revolution name poverty, weariness of the regime, desire for strictly follows the basic pattern (scenario); all democratic change, and the demographic situa- colour revolutions develop in accordance with one tion. At the same time, a detailed examination and the same scenario that uses a single template. of social and political situation in practically any Third, there are similarities in the manner country where a colour revolution took place of- of organising and exploiting the youth protest
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