Color Revolutions: Theory and Practice of Modern Political Regimes Dismantling

КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 Манойло А.В.

COLOR REVOLUTIONS: THEORY AND PRACTICE OF MODERN POLITICAL REGIMES DISMANTLING

Аннотация. This paper analyses the problems connected with dismantling of political regimes in modern countries (both of authoritarian and democratic kind) that takes the form of colour revolutions. The role of state-organised party building in prevention of colour revolution and stabilisation of political situation is also considered. After the outbreak of the Arab Spring and the Ukrainian crisis, the problems mentioned have become acute and highly topical. In the world history there have always been place to dismantling of political regimes. In the past, however, it was performed through the use of force in its classical form, with the methods used during military takeovers, local military conflicts, civil wars, and military interventions. The global community succeeded in developing effective measures for combatting this threat and creating efficient mechanisms for political regulation at the international level. Though the severity of the problem connected with the threat of military takeovers in different countries is still on the agenda, the world community as a whole is familiar with this category of threats and knows how to counteract them. Ключевые слова: Конфликтология, внешняя политика, США, мягкая сила, цветные революции, демонтаж политических режимов, международный конфликт, международная стабильность, международная безопасность, международные отношения.

t the same time, the world is changing, and can be interpreted as a recurring repetition of military takeovers are being replaced with one and the same pattern or scheme, which re- subtler technologies of colour revolutions, veals common features with the so called vel- Awhich are craftily hiding under the guise of genu- vet revolutions that destroyed the communist ine revolutionary movements and hardly meet any regimes in the East of Europe after the collapse opposition both on the part of developed democra- of the USSR. cies and on the part of the countries of the eastern This can hardly be regarded as purely ac- type who have preserved the traditional way of life. cidental. The countries that suffered a regime The repetition of the colour-revolution scenario change differ significantly in the level of political in Ukraine causes well-warranted concern, since organisation of power, the level of social and eco- it looks increasingly likely Ukraine being totally nomic development, and the range of unresolved not the final stage of the scenario but a pawn in a problems. The possibility of an exact coincidence geopolitical game, in which the attack planned by in scenarios in these countries is relatively, if not the US stage directors of colour revolutions may negligibly, small. focus on Russia, China, and Kazakhstan. In this respect, Syria and Libya are The reasons behind the increased interest in intrinsically different from Ukraine and Georgia. the issue of colour revolutions lie in the fact that It is easy to see, however, that the revolution of during the last three years a whole number of 2014 in Ukraine, which has become known as countries with quite stable political regimes had Euromaidan, coincides with the scenario of the experienced coups d’état, leading to complete Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, right down to or partial dismantling of their political regimes the behaviour pattern of the fighting parties. which for many years had successfully resisted All this may be regarded as indicative of a sit- enemies from within and without: e. g. Egyptian, uation when in two different counties and regions Tunisian, Syrian, and Libyan regimes had suc- we deal with one and the same phenomenon: the cessfully opposed Islamism. results of employing the technologies of colour Moreover, the scenarios of regime change in revolutions. However, despite the colourful name, these countries show a striking similarity, which there is nothing revolutionary about them.

40 Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИИ

Even the western media today point out Colour revolutions have necessary and suf- that colour revolutions, which are described as ficient conditions for their successful implemen- technologies of conducting operations aimed at tation. exporting democracy through acts of civil dis- The necessary condition for engineering a obedience, have by now become so sophisticated colour revolution is political instability in the that their methods have turned into guidelines on country, accompanied by the crisis of incumbent changing political regimes1. authorities. If political situation in the country is Colour revolutions are technologies for en- stable, it has to be destabilized artificially. gineering a coup and controlling the political The sufficient condition is the existence of situation in the country from the outside, under a specially organised youth protest movement conditions of induced political instability, with (through a special network type of organisation). pressure on the government taking the form of po- Distinctive features of colour revolutions in- litical blackmail using youth protest movements clude the following: as its tool. The aim of any colour revolution is a • Colour revolutions affect the power in a coup d’état, that is, seizing and retaining power specific way — through political blackmail; by use of force. Despite the significant differenc- • The main leverage against the government es (geopolitical, social, economic and in inter- is the youth protest movement. national position) between the countries where Colour revolutions only superficially resem- these revolutions break out, they all fit into one ble real revolutionary movements; unlike the and the same scheme that includes the pattern of true revolutions caused by the intrinsic factors organising youth protest movement, transform- of historical development, colour revolutions are ing this movement into a political crowd, and us- technologies that misrepresent themselves as ing this force against the existing government as spontaneous processes. They are characterised by an instrument of political blackmail. This is an a theatrical level of «stage direction», which the explicit indication of the fact that colour revolu- western political analysts are trying to pass off as tions cannot, by definition, be a means of fulfilling unplanned and spontaneous manifestations of the the dreams and desires of the popular majority. will of the people who suddenly decided to regain Colour revolutions are not soft power; they the right to rule their own country. are instruments used for destroying transitory- The engineered scenario of any colour revolu- type democratic regimes, which were patterned tion is based on Anglo-Saxon (North-American) phi- after Anglo-Saxon models in non-western coun- losophy of democratisation, designed for exporting tries, bearing the sign of imitation. It would be fair democracy, democratic institutions, and values to to say that Americans not only created a model contiguous countries2. Technologies of colour rev- of the democratic state structure suitable for the olutions can only be put to practice successfully by purpose of exporting but also took the trouble their creators and developers, namely, the Anglo-Sax- to create special tools aimed at its destruction ons. In any country where a colour revolution starts, and dismantling, should the necessity arise. In one should look for a North-American imprint. modern world, such tools that serve as picklocks There are two explanations underlying the for breaking into political regimes of the liberal reasons behind colour revolutions: the theory of western kind are represented by the technologies a spontaneous process and the theory of a staged of colour revolutions. process (accidental versus non-accidental). Both The aim of any colour revolution is a coup explanations can find their justification and nei- d’état, that is, seizing and retaining power by use ther is indisputable. of force. Advocates of the spontaneous theory claim For colour revolutions, the government and that the reason behind colour revolutions is intrin- its relations are the objective, while the political regime is their target. 2 Hale, H.E, «Democracy or Autocracy on the March? The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics of Patronal 1 Kara-Murza, S., Export of Revolution: Saakashvili, Presidentialism», Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Yushchenko, and others, Moscow, 2005. vol. 39, no. 3, 2006, pp. 305–329.

Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com 41 DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 sic social conflicts that manifest themselves in the First, a distinct Anglo-Saxon foreign-policy form of popular uprisings and mass protest of the imprint, their unique working style. «oppressed» population. Among the causes they Second, the plan of any colour revolution name poverty, weariness of the regime, desire for strictly follows the basic pattern (scenario); all democratic change, and the demographic situa- colour revolutions develop in accordance with one tion. At the same time, a detailed examination and the same scenario that uses a single template. of social and political situation in practically any Third, there are similarities in the manner country where a colour revolution took place of- of organising and exploiting the youth protest ten reveals that conflicts and social divide existing movement, which is controlled with the help of there, while serving as a catalyst for subsequent reflexive governance technologies (also an Ameri- events, were not the main or single reason behind can invention). them. In Egypt, for instance, there existed before Fourth, there are certain repetitive character- the revolution the so called flatbread subsidies, istics that are manifest in selection and nomina- which ensured affordability of the main staple, tion of revolutionary leaders. flatbread, for the poorest part of the population; Fifth, some colour revolutions totally lack in slum quarters of Cairo you can see a satellite any revolutionary ideology, which makes it pos- dish on the roof of every shanty; in Libya citizens sible to recognise a fake. This results from the used to get natural resource royalties (as well as fact that Americans, who are behind these colour numerous other social benefits), which were so revolutions, do not always understand the men- high that the country’s population stopped work- tality and psychology of the people to whom they ing altogether, and the task of working was put on plan bringing «the values of true democracy» migrant workers, often from Egypt and other Af- and cannot offer them an ideology that could be rican countries; the standard of living in Tunisia, seamlessly embraced by all social strata. the most democratic of all authoritarian African Colour revolutions are often described as countries, was very close to that of the south of technologies and tools of soft power in Joseph France (Provence and Languedoc), while exceed- Nye’s understanding of the term1. This approach ing that of southern Italy; one of the reasons for based on the analogy principle (in outward ap- the outbreak of protest movements in Syria was pearance, colour revolutions are soft power tech- the decision taken by Assad (in absence of any nologies of changing political regimes) is not pressure) to liberalize the authoritarian regime entirely accurate and often misleading, making and start liberal reforms, which was immediate- one believe that colour revolutions are a softer, ly used to their advantage by the Islamists, their and therefore more progressive and less socially sponsors from the US, etc. dangerous, way of influencing authoritarian re- Advocates of the staged theory point at the gimes. Hence, a campaign is started for promot- recurring repetition of the same scenario (pat- ing colour revolutions in opposition to any other tern) used for staging these revolutions in differ- forms of military takeovers. In our opinion, it ent countries of the world that differ significantly would be hard to determine what in reality is both in their political system and the character more dangerous for international security as a of their social and political problems. They ar- whole: colour revolutions or local military con- gue that all colour revolutions are «carbon cop- flicts. The modern Middle East plunged by colour ies› of each other and that the possibility for an revolutions into a «controlled» chaos is a highly event to repeat itself in the same form and follow representative example of that. Nevertheless, it exactly the same pattern is almost non-existent seems rather obvious that modern colour revo- in the real world. On the basis of these conclu- lutions are essentially not manifestations of soft sions, advocates of the staged theory point at a power. Colour revolutions are nothing less than number of features that allows for recognising a an organised form of political blackmail (i. e. colour revolution in any outwardly spontaneous blackmail targeting an independent sovereign popular uprising. Any colour revolution possesses characteris- 1 Nye, Joseph S. Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World tics that expose it as a technology. Politics, New York, Public Affairs Group, 2004.

42 Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИИ state) hiding behind the legend and slogans of a movement — the main driving force of the future national revolution. colour revolution. Colour revolutions are not soft power; they During the first stage, prior to starting its are instruments for breaking democratic regimes overt action, the protest movement is organised of a transitory type, which were patterned after in the form of a network consisting of secret cells, Anglo-Saxon models by non-western countries, each including a leader and three or four active carrying the sign of imitation. It would be fair to members serving as their liaison officers. Such say that Americans not only created a model of networks unite thoUSnds of active members, con- democratic state structure geared for exporting stituting the core of the future protest movement. it but also took the trouble to create special tools Many of the future protesters, prior to becoming aimed at its destruction and dismantling, should leaders of such cells, are trained in special centres the necessity arise. In modern world such tools specialising in promoting democratisation. that serve as a kind of picklock for breaking into Active members are recruited from among political regimes of the liberal western kind are the young people, who are very impulsive and represented by the technologies of colour revo- easily moved by flashy slogans and calls to action. lutions. The network principle of protest movement Special attention should be paid to the pos- organisation is similar to that of global terrorist sible degeneration of a colour revolution into a networks; this is essentially one and the same or- civil war or an international conflict taking the ganisational pattern. character of an armed confrontation. Colour The cells of the network emerge from the revolutions use the factor of military power as a underground to the streets of large cities simulta- support function, which is only foreseen by the neously and in response to a prearranged signal, authors of scenarios and technologies as used in which is called an incident. This can be any event case of emergency. For colour revolutions military that offends the community and causes public power is not the main tool; its use can rather be outrage. Typically, this incident is deliberately characterised as forced and subordinate. None- initiated. theless, one cannot but notice an interesting fact For Revolutions in Serbia (Bulldozer Revolu- that modern colour revolutions indeed create tion of 2000), Ukraine (2004), and Georgia (2004), conditions and motives for subsequent military this incident was the results of elections that were intervention. declared to have been fixed. Revolution in Tunisia The model underlying a colour revolution is (2010), a country with an authoritarian regime, always the same: creating a protest movement, started with a vendor setting himself on fire in one transforming it into a political crowd, and direct- of the squares in the city centre — an incident that ing its aggression towards the incumbent govern- in itself is rather small on the national scale. ment with the aim of forcing it to resign volun- It is important for the incident to attract the tarily and to withdraw from ruling the country. attention of everyone in the society and become a The pressure put on the government always takes subject generating a wide discussion, interpreta- the form of blackmail, by issuing an ultimatum tion, increased general agitation and spontaneous while threatening to start mass riots and, which forms of mass behaviour. is less frequent, threatening violence and physical After the incident takes place, the protest net- attack against dissenters. If the authorities start to work emerges from the underground to the streets fight back, the colour revolution enters the phase where the active cell members become catalysts of an armed rebellion. Sometimes this rebellion of spontaneous mass processes that involve more is accompanied by a military intervention on the and more people. part of the western countries, as it happened in This sets in motion the mechanisms of con- Libya and may still happen in Syria. flict mobilisation, one of their manifestation be- The model of a colour revolution consists of ing the so called twitter revolutions coordinated five main stages or phases: via social networking sites. Any colour revolution starts with the estab- The cells soon start attracting citizens who lishment in the country of an organised protest get involved in the spontaneous protest move-

Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com 43 DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 ment, pushed into it mainly by the fear for their revolutions. Specifically, Arab Sprig revolutions future. The general anxiety leads to the situation have their own features, distinguishing them when people’s consciousness enters the so called both in structure and technology from their pre- borderline state and becomes prone to mass pan- decessors — colour revolutions in Central Asia, ic reactions and collective hysteria, which often Ukraine, Georgia, and even the so called Green finds its expression at the levels of instincts and Revolution of 2009 in Iran: the classic colour reflexes. Starting from that moment, there is but revolution implementation pattern (i. e., a coup one step from transforming the protesting com- d’état) is supplemented with the feedback mech- munity into a crowd. anism (the iteration mechanism well known to The next stage in the colour revolution mathematicians) and the «controlled chaos› scheme is the creation of a political crowd. For mechanism that can be used to control political that purpose, a rather large square (maidan) is instability not only within one separate and rela- chosen that can accommodate a significant num- tively small country, such as Ukraine or Georgia, ber of people. but throughout a whole region (the Middle East, The active members lead their protesting North Africa, Central Asia, etc.). electorate to such a maidan, where during a ma- The feedback mechanism is a special correc- ny-hours-long meeting all participants merge tion tool that provides for real-time identification into a single mass of people, which is described of deficiencies in colour revolution patterns. It also in psychology by the term «crowd». Full emo- provides immediate remedial action by modify- tional merger of separate individuals into one ing them to fit specific conditions of a particular crowd takes place, and this crowd starts using sociocultural environment. This very mechanism flashy «revolutionary» symbols for identifying was for the first time put into practice in the course friends and foes. of Arab Spring revolutions. The coups d’état in the At this stage, the crowd is influenced with countries falling victim to a wave of «involuntary the help of technologies that affect people’s sub- democratisation» were mounted not simultane- conscious, instil new values and imperatives, and ously but one after another, in chain order, and reprogram the mind. These are the same technolo- every subsequent pattern took into account the gies that are used in protestant totalitarian sects. mistakes made when implementing the previous Conditions necessary for stable existence and pattern. Introduction of feedback mechanisms functionality of the crowd are carefully main- based on iteration schemes into the algorithms of tained: material support, tents, hot food, clothes, colour revolutions is a direct result of their evolu- money for the active members, offensive means tion, offering the possibility to immerse into the (crowbars, etc.), and so on. There is also a well- revolutionary process not only separate countries organised «logistics service». but whole regions. In the name of the crowd, ultimatum de- The «controlled chaos› mechanism is yet mands are presented to the government, sup- another evolutionary breakthrough in the tech- ported by threats of mass riots and — less fre- nologies of colour revolutions. It allows for imple- quently — of physical attack. If the regime cannot mentation of «democratic schemes and patterns› withstand the assault, it is swept away by the tide. initially developed for societies of the western (in- If the regime takes up the challenge and shows dividualist) type in traditional eastern societies, determination to fight back, the crowd becomes which were initially resistant to the promotion of the main battering-ram used by the creators of the democratic and liberal values. In order for the west- colour revolution for attacking the government. ern, Anglo-Saxon colour revolution technologies From this point on, such a revolution is invari- to work in this kind of sociocultural environment, ably transformed into a rebellion, and in certain it is necessary first to dismantle its traditional so- cases — into a civil war, followed by a military cial patterns, and this is exactly what «controlled intervention. chaos› technologies do (and are quite successful Evolution of organisational schemes and at that). The main purpose of using these technolo- patterns used in colour revolutions can be well gies is to prepare a traditional society for technolo- observed based on the example of Arab Spring gies of control over mass political consciousness

44 Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИИ and crowd behaviour, the goal achieved through both cases, under the guise of the rebellious popu- the society’s «atomisation», that is, by breaking lation, well-armed and organised militant groups ties between separate individuals and their com- started their militant action; in Egypt these were munity and instilling a surrogate individualism of the Islamists and in Ukraine — western national- the western type in people’s minds. ists. At the same time, the armed struggle, which Contemporary events in Ukraine (2013– had all the signs of a civil war, was still presented 2014) are also related to colour revolutions — as «a national liberation movement started by the they duplicate the Egyptian scenario. Therefore, people revolting against a criminal government». it can be expected that the colour revolution in In both cases «the rebellious people» were con- Ukraine also opens a door for foreign interven- fronted by a weak, irresolute and corrupt authorities tion, as it was in Libya and is still possible in Syria. who were afraid of decisive actions; hesitated when Comparing the Ukrainian colour revolu- faced with a choice to make; ran from one former ally tion 2.0 with recent events in the Middle East to another, while the latter in the new situation were and North Africa, it should be pointed out that eager to distance themselves from the government; the scenario of the Ukrainian revolution 2014 issued contradictory statements, thus demonstrat- exactly replicates the revolution in Egypt, where ing their own helplessness and discrediting them- the regime of Hosni Mubarak was destroyed and selves more efficiently than any attempts of their- ad the Egyptian president was removed from his of- versaries. This is exactly what Mubarak did: up to the fice and imprisoned. There are too many exact very last moment, he continued to believe that the similarities: US would come and save him from the colour revo- • for example, the very character of popu- lution that they themselves had staged, still hoped lar unrest degenerating into mass riots that were that this was just an educational measure. However, posed as spontaneous while being in reality noth- his hopes came to nothing, just like the expectations ing of the kind; of Yanukovych that an almost European Ukraine • and a well-organised protest movement was not the uncivilised Egypt and that Ukrainians backed up by paramilitary forces — Ukrainian were different from uneducated Arabs, and that the nationalists that were redeployed to Kiev from situation would take care of itself. western parts of Ukraine where they had been A few years after the Egyptian revolution, Yanu- for years training their combat skills in special kovych acted in exactly the same way as Mubarak: camps, studying the resistance tactics to be used despite the obvious threat from the growing rebel- against special police forces and the security ser- lion, which started with essentially insignificant vice of Ukraine, as well as urban warfare tactics; disturbances on the maidan, he did nothing to curb • besieging the government authorities and the situation. Instead of taking strong though war- capturing strategic sites and sensitive facilities of ranted measures and restoring the order (as Lukash- the capital’s infrastructure; enko did in the case of the «cornflower revolution’), • using conflict mobilisation technolo- Yanukovych started a strange political game, trying gies, involving the population in the conflict on to ingratiate himself now with the West (the EU the side of the «representatives of the rebellious and the US), now with Russia, hoping that «faced population’; inciting hatred against the ruling with the great task of holding back the chaos», he regime; employing large-scale ideological indoc- will be able to obtain yet another disbursement of trination of those who fell under the influence of money from both. This weakness was the reason the radicals; why Yanukovych first lost support of his elector- • a large-scale information war; ate, and then was also abandoned by supporters • properly organised supply of the rebels who started actively ratting out or changing sides. with everything needed to continue the fight, Faced with this crisis, Yanukovych finally gave the including military-style operation gear, clothes, order to suppress the maidan with force, but he did food, financial resources necessary to pay for not have enough courage to carry it through; from services of mercenaries and agents provocateurs. the moment when the rebels deployed the illegal However, the similarities between Egyptian armed forces of the nationalists and started orga- and Ukrainian revolutions do not end here: in nizing «self-defence squads› from the main body

Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com 45 DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИЯ • 1(1) • 2014 of the protesters, supressing the rebellion was only erate Islamists, while in Ukraine it was seized by possible at a high price in blood. However, Yanu- ultranationalists, which is almost the same thing. kovych could not bring himself to carry this out, The repetition of the colour-revolution sce- not so much trying to avoid civilian casualties, but nario in Ukraine in 2013–2014 causes well-war- rather afraid to lose his money and accounts in for- ranted concern, since it looks increasingly likely eign banks, for he could have been easily deprived of that Ukraine is totally not the final stage of this those if recognised as an «international criminal». scenario but a pawn in a geopolitical game, in His overtures to the EU also played their fatal role: which the attack planned by the US stage direc- the EU first insisted the Yanukovych should take tors of colour revolutions may focus on Russia, firm measures to quell the unrest in the capital, re- China, and Kazakhstan. storing the rule of law and order, but when he finally It is interesting that there appear in some of the started doing that and the first casualties appeared, latest works of western scholars, including French the EU immediately started talking about violation and British ones, assessments of colour revolutions of human rights and genocide by Yanukovych and that contradict the views imposed by the United his regime against their own people as well as about Stated that colour revolutions are instruments of the need to make concessions to appease the rebels democratisation and development of a democratic and initiate talks with them. When Yanukovych world. For instance, some scholars now begin to followed these recommendations and opened ne- claim, though rather cautiously, that none of the gotiations with the rebels, the latter regarded that colour revolutions in the Middle East or North as an acknowledgement by the government of its Africa brought prosperity to the Christian world; weakness and stepped up their activity, entering the quite the opposite, the Arab Spring stirred up and phase of violent armed confrontation. As a result, encouraged emergence from deep hiding of the Yanukovych and his team, instead of continuing the most dangerous extremist forces representing Is- fight or taking the consequences of their actions, lamism, and the western countries now have to deal simply fled Kiev. with them at the official level. The Arab Spring that Differences between Egypt and Ukraine are started under the slogans of democratisation of the in fact quite insignificant: in Egypt the Arabs took Arab East sped up the retreat of Christianity, which to the squares of Cairo, while in Kiev these were was pushed back by the onslaught of radical Islam, Ukrainian nationalists and ordinary citizens dis- since after the start of the Arab Spring colour revolu- satisfied with the dominant position of the Donetsk tions radical Islamism has dramatically increased in clan. In both cases the people were «tired of the strength. The Arab Spring, paid for and supported government» — Mubarak’s and Yanukovych’s re- by American and European allies, has turned into gimes — and this acted as a catalyst of the colour the beginning of the «Christian winter» for the revolution. This is what the nationalists are trying Western Christian world, which was already in se- to appeal to, forgetting the obvious resemblance vere crisis1. The western Christianity had to yield yet between the Ukrainian and the Egyptian scenari- another of its defensive positions. This makes one os. In the course of similar revolutions in Syria and give serious thought to the role that colour revolu- Libya, the government was confronted by Islamists tions really play today in the world politics and in against whom it had for many decades fought an the development of the new world order, and what uncompromising fight; among the nationalists in this new world order is going to be like if the wave Ukraine there are many Catholics, Greek Catho- of colour revolutions is not stopped in good time. lics, and adherents of numerous Protestant sects Nevertheless, the modern world has at its that are predominantly totalitarian and preaching disposal a framework of measures that can help extremism. In both countries the success of the to minimise the risk of colour revolutions and government overthrow became possible only due their development. It includes three groups of to the weakness and constant hesitations of the measures, with one containing the tools of state- regime that was initially over-confident but very organised party building. soon lost heart and, by its own actions, gave its supporters the run-for-your-lives signal. After the 1 Filiu, J. — P, The Arab Revolution. Ten Lessons from the coup d’état in Egypt, the power was taken by mod- Democratic Uprising, London, Hurst &Co., 2011, p. 195.

46 Все права принадлежат издательству © NOTA BENE (ООО «НБ-Медиа») www.nbpublish.com DOI: 10.7256/.2014.1.13519 АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ И НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КОНФЛИКТОЛОГИИ

The first group of measures is aimed at -un them other than a revolution to make their political covering and blocking the flow of funds used to statement. Numerous screening and qualification finance the protest movement. The second group requirements that impede their political activity of measures is aimed at involving the social base within the common legal framework merely con- of the protest movement — young people of 18 tribute to their further radicalisation and create to 35 — into the work of pro-government civic an informal «shadow» political sector open to organisations. The third group of measures in- the ideas of colour revolutions. The policy of state- cludes creating in the society of certain «air organised party building should, in contrast, lead release valves› enabling people to let off steam these movements out of the «shadow» sector and and ease the tensions, not letting the society «to direct their activity into the official legal environ- overheat» and release the built-up energy in the ment where they will be playing by the rules set form of a social outburst. Creating such «valves› by the government. The experience of western is the main task of state-organised party building democracy that had for many years fought against in response to the threat of colour revolutions. separatism provides a good example of tools to be The protest movement within colour revolu- employed for persuading radicals to use exclusively tions is supported not only by the impassioned legitimate methods of political struggle: ETA in young people who have not yet been able to find Spain and the IRA in Britain, who abandoned the their place in life; at its core are the active members armed confrontation and effectively turned into of opposition parties and movements who are shut political parties, are in this respect the most tell- out of the parliament and who have no way left to ing example.

БИБЛИОГРАФИЯ 1. Kara-Murza, S., Export of Revolution: Saakashvili, Yushchenko, and others, Moscow, 2005. 2. Filiu, J. — P, The Arab Revolution. Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising, London, Hurst &Co., 2011, p. 195. 3. Hale, H.E, «Democracy or Autocracy on the March? The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics of Patronal Presidentialism», Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 39, no. 3, 2006, pp. 305–329. 4. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, New York, Public Affairs Group, 2004. 5. Демидов А.В. От «мягкой силы» к «управляемому хаосу» // Международные отноше- ния. — 2014. — 2. — C. 230 — 236. DOI: 10.7256/2305-560X.2014.2.10355. 6. О. Г. Карпович Миротворческие операции США и Европейского Союза и роль технологий управления международными конфликтами в поддержании мира // Политика и Общест- во. — 2012. — 1. — C. 108 — 118.

REFERENCES (TRANSLITERATED) 1. Kara-Murza, S., Export of Revolution: Saakashvili, Yushchenko, and others, Moscow, 2005. 2. Filiu, J. — P, The Arab Revolution. Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising, London, Hurst &Co., 2011, p. 195. 3. Hale, H.E, «Democracy or Autocracy on the March? The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics of Patronal Presidentialism», Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 39, no. 3, 2006, pp. 305–329. 4. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, New York, Public Affairs Group, 2004. 5. Demidov A. V. Ot «myagkoi sily» k «upravlyaemomu khaosu» // Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. — 2014. — 2. — C. 230–236. DOI: 10.7256/2305–560X.2014.2.10355. 6. O. G. Karpovich Mirotvorcheskie operatsii SShA i Evropeiskogo Soyuza i rol» tekhnologii upravleniya mezhdunarodnymi konfliktami v podderzhanii mira // Politika i Obshchestvo. — 2012. — 1. — C. 108–118.