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The Post-Arab Spring Geopolitical Instability and Its Effects on Middle

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The Post-Arab Spring Geopolitical Instability and Its Effects on Middle Fort Hays State University FHSU Scholars Repository Master's Theses Graduate School Spring 2015 The oP st-Arab Spring Geopolitical Instability And Its Effects On Middle East And North Africa Sargon S. Poulis Fort Hays State University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.fhsu.edu/theses Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Poulis, Sargon S., "The osP t-Arab Spring Geopolitical Instability And Its Effects On Middle East And North Africa" (2015). Master's Theses. 50. https://scholars.fhsu.edu/theses/50 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at FHSU Scholars Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of FHSU Scholars Repository. THE POST-ARAB SPRING GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY AND ITS EFFECTS ON MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA being A Thesis Presented to the Graduate Faculty of the Fort Hays State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Liberal Studies by Sargon S. Poulis B.A., University of Baghdad Date_____________________ Approved___________________________ Major Professor Approved___________________________ Chair, Graduate Council This Thesis for The Master of Liberal Studies By Sargon S. Poulis Has been approved ________________________________ Chair, Supervisory Committee _______________________________ Supervisory Committee ________________________________ Supervisory Committee ___________________________________ Chair, Department of Political Science i ABSTRACT Founded on SMTs (Social Movement Theories), the current study aimed at analyzing the impact of Arab Spring uprisings on the geopolitical system of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) re gion. With an overview on the political and socioeconomic background of Arab Uprisings, the qualitative study focused on: a) determining the economic, political, and social consequences of the uprisings, especially aftermaths that have given rise to the notion of geopolitical instability in the region, and b) investigating the possible factors that will spread geopolitical instability across the MENA region. Given the comprehensiveness and magnitude, the case of the popular uprisings in the MENA region is assessed using qualitative analysis. The study indicates that, Arab Spring failed to bring optimistic changes, empowered political Islamism, spread religious radicalism, reduced state secularism, and led to the emergence of semi-theocratic regimes. It negatively affected public freedoms, minorities, rights of women, and democratization. The uprisings resulted in riots, civil wars, social militarization and neighborhood interference, empowered Iranian hegemony, anarchized petrodollar, created proxy wars, led to the revival of terrorist cells, and affected economies. The Arab Uprisings which sprung with dissatisfaction/deprivation among the masses against their respective regimes, and created conflicts across the MENA region channeled a mass movement on the basis of collective identities and informal networks. The study ultimately concluded that social movements have the potential to escalate to a ii full-fledged revolution if not tackled in an appropriate manner. This study proves that Arab Uprisings collectively and negatively impacted the political, social, security, interregional, economic, and financial systems of the MENA region. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although I had gone through tiring days and nights to bring this thesis to light, it would not be appropriate to take assume full credit without expressing my heartfelt gratitude to numerous supporters. These wonderful supporters with their brightness and presence have ensured the materialization of this effort called thesis on the popular Arab Spring. The sad and bloody state that the great MENA region reduced itself to triggered the need for conducting a research study in this arena. However, the complexity involved in the research topic prompted me to take a backseat, which was duly reversed by sheer willpower and support from my dear advisor Dr. Chapman Rackaway. A person whose patience spans the wide oceans, having Dr. Chapman Rackaway as my graduate advisor is a blessing by all means. I will always remember and be profoundly grateful and thankful to his positive attitude, never-ending patience and compassion towards my efforts. His insight towards the subject, incessant feedback, approvals, and encouragement enabled me to move forward. I shall always remember his help whenever I faced numerous roadblocks to finish deadlines caused by incessant circumstances discomforts. Dr. Chapman Rackaway will always be remembered for his time, effort, and intelligence. While my advisor offered generous and professional inputs related to the topic, I would also like to thank my committee members Dr. Josephine Squires, and Dr. Jian Sun for their support and help. Your expertise and feedback really helped me realize the true reality of academic writing and the need to ensure strategic planning to achieve my set objectives. iv I am forever thankful to my family, friends, staff, and faculty of the Department of Political Science at FHSU. I shall always remember your unconditional help and encouragement. v PREFACE I have done my thesis in six chapters, and each chapter, subchapter, and subsection will be outlined in its dedicated division respectively as shown in the table of contents and Thesis Structure explained in Chapter One, to ensure the fulfillment of all academic aspects for M.L.S scientific research and requirements of Graduate Studies of the Department of Political Science at Fort Hays State University. In accordance with scientific study requirements, and in full commitment with the academic instructions of FHSU Graduate School‘s Guidelines for Thesis and Field Study Handbook (Fall, 2012), and as the most compatible with the guidelines of social and humanities sciences, wherefore APA style was adopted by me for all in-text and cited literatures (References) of this thesis. I have based, showcased, and developed my thesis‘ suppositions, arguments, and discussions on the original thesis statement proposed, submitted, and approved by my venerable and distinguished Graduate Committee, and Major Professor, and as stipulated in problem statement ―The Arab Spring was negatively affected the regions of Middle East and North Africa, and will lead inevitably to instable geopolitical situation results because of violent socio-economic and political devastating transformations, and long- term domestic and interregional conflicts.‖ Thesis Search Key words: Arab Spring; uprisings; geopolitical instability; Middle East; North Africa. vi LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Arab World polity score compared to other regions 1960-2000………………...…150 1.2 Arab World Median and Average polity compared to world 1980-2002…….…….150 1.3 Population explosion in North Africa 1950-2010 and expectations till 2050……...152 1.4 Population explosion in Middle East 1950-2010 and expectations till 2050………152 1.5 Population explosion in Gulf region 1950-2010 and expectations till 2050…….…153 1.6 Percentage of youth bulge in MENA between ages 0-14 years………….…...…....153 1.7 Food prices in Arab countries January 2004…………………………….….…...…154 1.8 Percentage of Tunisian posts based on six keywords November 2010……….……154 1.9 Escalating numbers of tweets on Mubarak resign January – March 2011…….…...155 1.10 Increasing tweets on events in neighboring countries January - April 2011….…..155 3.1 ISIS controlling areas across borders in Iraq and Syria, and route to Mosul seizure….….....................................................................................................................156 3.2 Muslim Brotherhood‘s activities since 1948………………………………….……157 3.3 FDI net inflows (YOY Percentage Change) for countries in MENA region for 2010 in comparison with 2009 and 2011 in comparison with 2010…………………………….158 vii 3.4 Total Reserves (YOY Percentage Change) for countries in MENA region for 2010 in comparison with 2009 and 2011 in comparison with 2010…………………………….159 3.5 Gross Savings Percentage of GDP (YOY Percentage Change) for countries in MENA region for 2010 in comparison with 2009 and 2011 in comparison with 2010……………………………………………………………………………..………160 3.6 YOY Percentage change in net migration in the MENA region for 2012 in comparison with 2007…………………………………………………………………..161 viii LIST OF TABLES Page 1.1 Corruption score and ranking of MENA countries 2008………………………...…151 1.2 Real GDP percentages to inflation rate in sample of Arab Spring countries 2020- 2013……………………………………………………………………………………..151 3.1 Intended work of foreign fighter in Iraq by nationality………………………….…155 3.2 GDP at market prices (2010) and current account balances/ GDP percentage for countries in MENA region……………………………………………………………...162 3.3 International capital flows to developing countries…………………………….…..163 ix TABLE OF CONTENTS Page GRADUATE COMMITTEE APRROVAL…………………….……………....………...i ABSTRACT…………………………...……………………………….…………….…...ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS……………………….…………………….…….……….......iv PREFACE…………………………………………………………….………………......vi LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………….………...…...……vii LIST OF TABLES……………………………………….………………...………...…...ix TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………….………………...……….....x CHAPTER ONE: POLITICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS OF ARAB SPRING’S UPRISINGS, AND STUDY OVERVIEW………...……….…...…1 INTRODUCTION…………………………………..…..………….……………....……...1 STUDY BACKGROUNDS……………….…………………………...…….…….….…..4 POLITICAL BACKGROUND…………………….……………………………...………4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC
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