The Aftermath of the Arab Spring Protests: What a Public Opinion Survey Tells Us

POLICY BRIEF 03.21.19 The Aftermath of the Arab Spring Protests: What a Public Opinion Survey Tells Us

A.Kadir Yildirim, Ph.D., Fellow, Center for the Middle East Meredith McCain, Undergraduate Student, Rice University

Mohammed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in how respondents view the Arab in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, in December 2010 Spring. While a small number of countries triggered events that significantly altered have seen improvement in democratic politics in the Middle East and North Africa conditions, most see social justice and (MENA). In some countries, widespread economic improvement as distant promises protests led to the ousting of long-time that remain unachieved. dictators like Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, whereas in others, like Syria, Yemen, and GOALS OF THE ARAB SPRING Libya, protests escalated into widespread PROTESTS violence between opposition groups In our survey, respondents were asked to and governments, and devastating rank the goals of the Arab Spring protests conflicts persist. from a list that includes increasing political The effects of the Arab Spring are still freedoms, reducing corruption, enhancing unfolding, but the high expectations for dignity, improving the economic situation, democratization and social justice appear In a recent survey and promoting social justice, among others. in 10 Arab nations, largely unmet and significant questions The results reveal that economic concerns remain regarding public opinion about dominate survey respondents’ perceived we measured public these events. Seven years since the goals of the Arab Spring (Figure 1). attitudes toward protests began, how do ordinary people Improving economic conditions was chosen in the Middle East view the Arab Spring the Arab Spring as the principal goal of the protests in half protests, its goals, process and its outcomes? What were the of the countries in the survey. Respondents goals of the protests and were they met? in many of these nations also ranked and its beneficiaries. Who benefited from this process and who tackling corruption and social justice as Unsurprisingly, we was negatively impacted? important goals, seemingly indicating a found that many In a recent survey in 10 Arab nations perceived relationship between economic respondents feel that (Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, woes and corruption, especially in Algeria, Sudan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestinian Morocco, and Sudan (Figure 2). Social the protests did not 1 Territories), we measured public attitudes justice topped the list of goals in Egypt, bring about the changes toward the Arab Spring protests, its goals, Algeria, and Tunisia, while Morocco was the they originally and its beneficiaries. Unsurprisingly, we only country to rank dignity as the most hoped for. found that many respondents feel that the important objective. protests did not bring about the changes they originally hoped for. However, there is marked variation across these nations RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // POLICY BRIEF // 03.21.19

While economic goals were very FIGURE 1 — GOALS OF THE ARAB SPRING important to respondents, political goals ranked relatively low in how respondents perceived the goals of the protests. Political Dignity freedoms were deemed the highest priority only in Lebanon and were the least- cited goal in over half of the countries Social Justice surveyed, thus contradicting the widely held belief that democratization constituted the most important aim of Arab Spring Corruption protests. Indeed, other research such as the Arab Transformations Project has also found economic issues to be at the core Economic Situation of the demands in Arab Spring protests.2 In view of the prominence of demands for democratic rights during the protests, Political Freedoms this finding is somewhat surprising. It is possible that political transformation was 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50% a primary goal during the protests, but citizens adjusted their expectations over First goal Second goal Third goal time to fit shifting prospects of success, or they engaged in selective remembrance. SURVEY QUESTION What were the three most important goals of the Arab Spring protests, in your opinion?

FIGURE 2 — GOALS OF THE ARAB SPRING BY COUNTRY

35%

Algeria Egypt Iraq Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia

Political freedoms Economic situation Corruption Social justice Dignity

SURVEY QUESTION What were the three most important goals of the Arab Spring protests, in your opinion? NOTE Percentages in different colors represent the total share of respondents who selected that item as the first, second, or third goal of the Arab Spring protests.

2 THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING PROTESTS: WHAT A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY TELLS US

FIGURE 3: IS THE REGION BETTER OFF AFTER THE ARAB SPRING?

70%

Algeria Egypt Iraq Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Total

Country better off Arab Spring goals delivered

On average, fewer than 20 percent WERE THE GOALS OF THE ARAB of respondents agreed that the goals SPRING ATTAINED? of economic improvement and social Fewer than half of all those surveyed justice were reached, despite ranking agreed that their country is better off after these as the top two goals of the Arab the Arab Spring protests, and an even Spring protests. Reducing corruption was smaller proportion believe the protests another important goal of the protests, were successful (Figure 3). Respondents yet overwhelming majorities of the in Syria and Libya expressed the fewest respondents thought that this goal was positive sentiments about the protests’ not achieved (less than 25 percent on impact and success. The majority of average), with Libya having the lowest rate respondents in all nations in the survey of respondents agreeing, at less than 10 found that the primary economic and percent. Notably, 43 percent of Palestinian political goals of the protests were not respondents thought the protests attained (Figure 4). However, in Tunisia, brought dignity, whereas respondents in Libya, Lebanon, and Iraq, the attainment the rest of the survey did not think so. of political freedoms stands out as a lone Overall, respondents in most countries bright spot among economic and political in our survey thought that the Arab disappointments. The share of respondents Spring protests fell far short of fulfilling agreeing that political freedoms were their intended goals. Increased political achieved exceeds 80 percent in Tunisia, freedoms were acknowledged as the most 65 percent in Libya, and 45 percent in widely achieved objective, but they were Lebanon and Iraq. not the primary goal in many countries.

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FIGURE 4 — WERE THE ARAB SPRING GOALS ACHIEVED?

Political Freedom Economic Situation

Algeria Algeria

Egypt Egypt

Iraq Iraq

Lebanon Lebanon

Libya Libya

Morocco Morocco

Palestine Palestine

Sudan Sudan

Syria Syria

Tunisia Tunisia

Total Total

0 20 40 60 80% 0 20 40%

Corruption Social Justice Dignity

Algeria Algeria Algeria

Egypt Egypt Egypt

Iraq Iraq Iraq

Lebanon Lebanon Lebanon

Libya Libya Libya

Morocco Morocco Morocco

Palestine Palestine Palestine

Sudan Sudan Sudan

Syria Syria Syria

Tunisia Tunisia Tunisia

Total Total Total

0 20 40% 0 20 40% 0 20 40%

SURVEY QUESTION Which of the following goals did the Arab Spring protests achieve in your country?

Respondents were also asked to rate the WHAT CHANGED? improvement of certain freedoms after Respondents indicated that the Arab the Arab Spring, including women’s rights, Spring protests resulted in worsened ethnic freedom of the press, political expression, tensions throughout the region (Figure and freedom to choose leaders (Figure 5). Respondents in eight of the 10 nations 6). Respondents in Tunisia expressed surveyed believed that ethnic relations the highest levels of improvement in deteriorated after the Arab Spring, and all four freedoms, especially in political respondents in all 10 nations specifically expression—a result that corresponds with cited heightened Sunni-Shia tensions. This the success of the Jasmine Revolution in negative outlook on ethnic and Sunni-Shia 2011. Moroccan respondents also noted relations is most pronounced in Syria—most improvement in all four categories, while certainly aggravated by the ongoing civil respondents in Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, and war—followed by Lebanon. Libya each observed increased freedom in at least one of the categories. 4 THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING PROTESTS: WHAT A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY TELLS US

FIGURE 5 — THE ARAB SPRING’S EFFECT ON ETHNIC AND SUNNI-SHIA RELATIONS

Ethnic Relations Sunni-Shia Relations

100% 100%

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

Iraq Iraq Egypt Libya Syria Total Egypt Libya Syria Total Algeria Sudan Tunisia Algeria Sudan Tunisia Lebanon Morocco Palestine Lebanon Morocco Palestine

Better Worse

Respondents in four nations—Egypt, benefited “a lot” or “some” from the Arab Palestine, Sudan, and Syria—expressed Spring. In contrast, most respondents also stagnation or regression in at least three believed that middle class and poor citizens freedoms. The deterioration of ethnic and did not benefit and were harmed by the Sunni-Shia relations coupled with the Arab Spring; Syrians ranked its middle class perception of lagging freedoms compounds and poor citizens as more disadvantaged the new reality of increased political than other nations. The results in Syria turmoil and instability in the region, feeding reflect the devastation of the civil war, larger anxieties about the impact of Arab which has hit elite citizens as well as the Spring protests on the day-to-day lives disadvantaged. Essentially, the survey of individuals. respondents view the fallout from the Arab Spring protests as reinforcing the pre-2010 structures and the social, economic, and WHO BENEFITED? political inequalities that gave rise to the protests in the first place. Given that respondents did not observe Survey respondents’ views on how notable progress toward most goals of the various ethno-religious groups benefited Arab Spring protests, the question of who from or were harmed by the Arab Spring benefited from or was harmed by the Arab process reveal notable signs of the way Spring offers a more accurate reflection these groups are perceived by the society of its effects. In particular, we asked at large (Figure 8). In Libya and Tunisia— respondents about their views on a variety two countries where the old regimes have of socioeconomic, ethnic, and religious been replaced with new governments since groups to assess public perceptions of who 2010 and Islamists have gained political benefited from the Arab Spring process. ground—Salafists and Islamists were seen Respondents overwhelmingly identified as having benefited disproportionately the ruling elites as the beneficiaries of compared to other groups. Among religious the Arab Spring process (Figure 7). In all minorities across the region, Christians are nations, respondents indicated that elites viewed with the least prejudice. Christians 5 RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // POLICY BRIEF // 03.21.19

in Iraq and Syria were thought to have (Iraq and Lebanon are exceptions with fared much worse than other groups their sizable Shiite populations, as is and are the only population that was Palestine, given the Jewish population perceived to have been harmed rather than in the West Bank). Moreover, Jews And benefited from the Arab Spring. Shiites Shiites are collectively ranked as benefiting and Jews, by comparison, were regarded more than any other religious group in as having benefited from the Arab Spring half of the 10 nations under study; this protests despite comprising negligibly finding may reflect negative perceptions small minorities in almost all countries in of these minorities rather than their lived the survey and lacking much influence experiences.

FIGURE 6 — THE ARAB SPRING’S EFFECT ON WOMEN’S RIGHTS, MEDIA FREEDOM, POLITICAL EXPRESSION, AND FREEDOM TO CHOOSE LEADERS

Women’s Rights Freedom of Expression 100% 100%

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

Iraq Iraq Total Egypt Libya Syria Total Egypt Libya Sudan Syria Algeria Sudan Tunisia Algeria Tunisia Lebanon Morocco Palestine Lebanon Morocco Palestine

Media Freedom Freedom to Choose Leaders 100% 100%

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

Iraq Iraq Egypt Libya Syria Total Egypt Libya Syria Total Algeria Sudan Tunisia Algeria Sudan Tunisia Lebanon Morocco Palestine Lebanon Morocco Palestine

Better Worse

6 THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING PROTESTS: WHAT A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY TELLS US

IMPLICATIONS FIGURE 7 — WHICH SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS BENEFITED FROM THE ARAB SPRING? The survey results show that the Arab Spring protests failed to deliver what many in 100% the MENA region hoped they would. While 90 the protests did bring about more political freedoms in a few nations, respondents in 80 most countries did not think that the protests 70 led to significant levels of improvement in 60 economic or political conditions. The overwhelming majority of 50 respondents in each country think that the 40 elite disproportionately benefited from the 30 Arab Spring at the expense of the middle 20 and lower classes. Likewise, perceptions of which ethno-religious groups benefited 10 from the Arab Spring reinforce prevailing 0 social prejudices against certain religious Iraq Egypt Libya Syria Total Algeria Sudan Tunisia groups, particularly Shiites and Jews. These Lebanon Morocco Palestine views were supported by an emerging Poor Middle class Ruling elite consensus that ethno-religious tensions worsened across the region. While regimes in the region have SURVEY QUESTION Looking back, how much did the following groups benefit from or were harmed by engaged in limited governance reform in the Arab Spring in ? response to new conditions in the post-Arab Spring world, such changes appear

FIGURE 8: WHICH ETHNO-RELIGIOUS GROUPS BENEFITED FROM THE ARAB SPRING?

80%

0 Algeria Egypt Iraq Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Total

Salafists Islamists Shiites Christians Jews

SURVEY QUESTION Looking back, how much did the following groups benefit from or were harmed by the Arab Spring in ?

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to be adjustments to ensure greater state of ethno-religious relations promises societal control and reduce prospects of to introduce a more trenchant sectarian large-scale dissent. For example, some element to the next wave of instability in nations experienced improvements in media the region. freedom, political expression, or women’s rights, but others remained stagnant or regressed in these realms. The limited ENDNOTES successes experienced by the majority of the population may assuage their 1. The survey was conducted in concerns for the time being. However, the May-June 2018 in 10 Arab nations in the compounded effects of the lack of change Middle East and is part of a broader project from the pre-Arab Spring status quo and on pluralism in the Arab World generously the perceptions of who benefited from—and supported by the Carnegie Corporation of was harmed by—the Arab Spring contain New York. The survey was conducted online the seeds of future instability for the region. by YouGov, and 8,501 people responded. The evidence of widespread disappointment The sample is not representative at the across the region generates clear policy country level; it is disproportionately urban, implications for our findings. educated, and male. Economic woes need to be addressed 2. More information on the Arab with a sense of great urgency. The problem Transformations Project is available at: of youth unemployment and pervasive https://www.arabtrans.eu. corruption undermine the promise of long- term economic reform programs that many AUTHORS governments across the region announced and began implementing. A lack of economic A.Kadir Yildirim, Ph.D., is a fellow for the diversification and development in most Middle East at the Baker Institute. His main See more policy briefs at: of the nations surveyed will continue research interests include politics and www.bakerinstitute.org/policy-briefs to leave the demographic “youth bulge” religion, political Islam, and the politics stranded without the opportunity for of the Middle East and Turkey. This publication was written by a economic advancement. In addition, high researcher (or researchers) who participated in a Baker Institute project. levels of corruption among political elites Meredith McCain is an intern at the Baker Wherever feasible, this research is may exacerbate middle- and lower-class Institute and an undergraduate student reviewed by outside experts before it is awareness of their economic exclusion. at Rice University majoring in political released. However, the views expressed This sense of frustration with how the Arab science and French studies. She is currently herein are those of the individual Spring protests unfolded is highly likely to studying Arabic and the politics of the author(s), and do not necessarily foment greater levels of antagonism toward MENA region at Sciences Po in France. represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. existing regimes. The Arab Spring process began © 2019 Rice University’s Baker Institute eroding the unitary nation-state paradigm for Public Policy developed in the post-independence period that had largely ignored ethnic This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, or religious identities. Ethno-religious provided appropriate credit is given to minorities, however, have increasingly the author and Rice University’s Baker been marginalized over time, and the Institute for Public Policy. aftermath of the Arab Spring protests only reinforced the prejudices these minority Cite as: groups face. Governments in the region Yildirim, A.Kadir, and Meredith McCain. The Aftermath of the Arab Spring should proactively work toward eliminating Protests: What a Public Opinion Survey bias encountered by minority groups to Tells Us. Policy brief no. 03.21.19. Rice both protect them and decrease ethnic University’s Baker Institute for Public and religious tensions. If no initiative is Policy, Houston, Texas. taken by these nations, the deteriorating