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Analysis of the Economic Situation in the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe No No. 1/14 January 2014 Analysis of the economic situation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe No. 1/14 January 2014 Analysis of the economic situation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe Małgorzata Golik Marcin Grela Marcin Humanicki Marcin Kitala Tomasz Michałek Wojciech Mroczek Jakub Mućk Ewa Rzeszutek Economic Institute Warsaw 2014 Content Summary 3 Countries of Central and Eastern Europe - macroeconomic outlook 5 Latvia - a bumpy road to the euro 20 Foreign trade of the Central and Eastern European Countries 25 Summary and conclusions 25 Motivation and data sources 27 Growing role of foreign trade and changes in its structure in the Central and Eastern Europe 28 Participation of the Central and Eastern European countries in global supply chains 39 Exporters - characteristics of the enterprises in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe 47 Statistical Annex 55 Summary Summary Following the slowdown in the economies of the previous years. At the end of 2013, only Poland, Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) in Slovenia and Croatia remained under the excessive 2012, signs of a gradual recovery appeared in the deficit procedure. Further fiscal policy easing is also first three quarters of 2013. Annual GDP growth, expected in the forthcoming years. CEE countries which amounted to 0.0% in 2012 Q4, accelerated to do not plan any further tax increases in 2014 and 1.3% in 2013 Q3. 2015 (excluding excise tax), only measures aimed at reducing the grey economy and tax evasion. In 2013 The recovery was linked with an upturn in the euro Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and Hungary reduced the area economies, in particular, a rise in the output of rates of personal and corporate income taxes as well the industrial sector and, at the same time, growing as social security contributions, or such reductions demand of the main trading partner. This resulted are planned for the coming years. in both an increase in the CEE industrial production and an acceleration of exports, which were the key The ongoing private sector deleveraging was the driver of growth in 2013. factor which continued to hamper domestic de- mand growth in the CEE countries in 2013. The Exports growth stepped up, in particular, in Roma- annual growth in household and corporate loans nia and Hungary, as a result of higher demand for remained negative. In the majority of economies it cars produced in these countries. On the other had even declined as compared to the end of 2012. hand, CEE leaders in previous years, i.e. Slovakia Weak lending in the CEE countries resulted from and the Baltic states, reported a slowdown in ex- both supply- and demand-side factors. In 2013 the ports. In the case of the Baltic states, it was mainly outflow of foreign capital from the banking sector attributable to lower demand from countries of the in the region was still significant. In Croatia, Roma- former Soviet Union, in Slovakia to a decline in nia, Slovenia and Hungary, local banks' assets qual- automotive sector exports. ity was deteriorating. In addition, the indebted households and enterprises in the CEE countries At the same time, following a period of a marked still showed limited interest in incurring new liabili- weakening in 2012, as of 2013 Q2 private consump- ties. tion began to pick up gradually. This growth was visible almost in the entire region, except for Bul- The abovementioned upturn in industry did not garia. Higher consumption growth was preceded translate into an improvement in labour market by rising consumer sentiment readings. The grow- conditions in CEE. Employment growth in the ma- ing consumer confidence stemmed mainly from an jority of the economies was almost negligible. Apart upturn in real disposable income, arising from a from the industrial sector and public administra- decrease in inflation. In 2013 Q2 and Q3 the magni- tion, the number of the employed even dropped. tude of decline in investment outlays also dimin- Neither did the harmonised unemployment rate fall ished, in particular, in terms of investment in ma- significantly (besides the Baltic states and Hunga- chinery and equipment. ry), persisting at a relatively high level - definitely higher than before 2009. Domestic demand growth in 2013 was supported by a fiscal policy easing, as fiscal imbalance in most Supply-side factors (decline in energy and food CEE countries had been reduced markedly over the prices growth rate) as well as the continually weak Analysis of the economic situation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe 3 Summary consumer demand in the CEE countries caused a apply foreign exchange interventions in order to marked drop in inflation in 2013. In November weaken the koruna exchange rate. As a result, the 2013, the weighted average of HICP index for the koruna depreciated by 5% against the euro in No- CEE region amounted to 0.7% y/y, i.e. an all-time vember 2013. low. The accommodative monetary policy, eased fiscal Starting from May 2013, energy prices in the region consolidation and improved sentiment among pro- were falling in annual terms. It resulted from the ducers and consumers pave the way for continued slump in the prices of energy commodities, but also economic growth, in particular, a rebound in do- from administrative decisions leading to lower mestic demand in 2014-2015. Yet, the most im- energy prices for private consumers. On the other portant growth driver in the region, at least in the hand, slower food prices growth stemmed from a first half of 2014, will still be exports resulting from decline in the prices of agricultural commodities, the expected further recovery in the euro area. arising from their ample global supply. The rather poor consumer demand, sustained over 2013, The most recent growth forecasts for 2014-1015 helped keep core inflation low. Similar to headline suggest that GDP in the region will continue to inflation, core inflation also reached its historical expand slowly. The anticipated growth in exports lows at the end of 2013. will be accompanied by stronger consumption, investment, as well as imports. As a consequence, The marked drop in inflation in the CEE countries, the structure of growth will change. Domestic de- accompanied by still minor improvement in domes- mand should gradually replace foreign demand as tic demand in 2013, provided grounds for further the main growth factor in the CEE countries. monetary policy easing in the countries following the direct inflation targeting strategy (i.e. the Czech A key risk to further revival in the CEE countries Republic, Poland, Romania and Hungary). Whereas seems to be a potential slowdown in the euro area, in Poland this process has stopped in mid-2013, in as it would indirectly inhibit the growth in the ex- the remaining three economies, the monetary policy port-oriented sectors. The ongoing process of the easing was continued into the second half of the private sector deleveraging emerges as another risk year. The central banks of Hungary and Romania factor. An increase in global risk aversion and a decided to further cut interest rate. On the other retreat of foreign investors should also be consid- hand, the Czech National Bank, which had brought ered as a threat for the CEE economies in the forth- interest rates to “technical zero” in 2012, decided to coming years. 4 Narodowy Bank Polski Countries of Central and Eastern Europe −macroeconomic outlook Countries of Central and Eastern Europe −macroeconomic outlook Ongoing slow recovery in CEE countries in 2013 period, remaining however in the positive territory. In the Czech Republic, Croatia and Slovenia, GDP Following a period of economic slowdown in 2012, continued to decline in 2013. Yet, the magnitude of the annual GDP growth rate in the CEE countries recession deepened only in the Czech economy. The has been gradually rising from the beginning of Czech Republic and Slovenia were the worst per- 2013. In 2012 Q4 it amounted to 0.0%, which was forming countries in the region in 2013 Q3 the lowest reading since 2009. Yet, in the following (-1.3% y/y). quarters the CEE economy returned on the upward path. In 2013 Q3, the annual GDP growth increased CEE economies still dependent on the euro area to 1.3% and in the first three quarters of 2013 recovery it amounted to 0.7%. Both the economic slowdown in the CEE in 2012 Figure 1.1. GDP growth in the CEE (in %) and its recovery in 2013 mainly stemmed from the performance of the euro area economy. The grow- ing demand from the CEE main trading partner in 2013 boosted activity in the industrial sector and accelerated exports growth. However, improved situation in industry have not translated into any noticeable improvement in labour markets. Despite expanding foreign demand, the investment outlays also continued to decline. Net exports still the main contributor to GDP growth Source: Eurostat The rising demand from the euro area countries However, not all of the CEE countries saw GDP boosted exports growth in the CEE countries in the growth in this period. In the first three quarters of first three quarters of 2013. However, the situation 2013, similarly to 2012, the highest pace of growth in individual countries was highly diversified. Very was recorded in Latvia (5.0% y/y) and Lithuania high growth was recorded in Romania and Hunga- (3.3% y/y). GDP growth accelerated markedly in ry, mainly on the back of higher exports of cars. Poland, Hungary (a clear rebound after the 2012 Exports accelerated also in Poland, Slovenia and recession) and Romania, which in 2013 Q3 became Croatia. In the remaining CEE countries annual the fastest-growing economy of the region exports growth rate declined.
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