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International Investment Bank Transition Country Strategy

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International Investment Bank Transition Country Strategy INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK TRANSITION COUNTRY STRATEGY Moscow, August 2015 Introduction This Transition Country Strategy for Hungary (hereinafter – the Strategy or the Country Strategy) is aimed at restoring the key elements of cooperation between the International Investment Bank (hereinafter – the IIB, the Bank) and Hungary, taking into account the renewal of the country’s membership in the Bank under the resolution adopted at the 102nd Meeting of the IIB Council (20-21 November 2014, Sofia). The Country Strategy for Hungary is drawn up based on the Bank’s Corporate Development Strategy for 2013-2017 approved at the 97th Meeting of the IIB Council, and the IIB Business Plan for 2013-2017. The implementation of the Strategy should ensure the exploitation of the IIB’s full potential as a multilateral development bank to contribute towards Hungary’s social and economic development, prosperity of its people and stronger trade and economic ties between the member states of the Bank. The Strategy has been elaborated in full accordance with the IIB’s mission and objectives and has taken on board the best practices in the field of strategic planning adopted by multilateral banks for development. Macroeconomic environment In 2013, Hungarian GDP growth became balanced and this trend continued in the recent quarters. Latest data confirm that Hungary is on the right track as the structure of GDP became stable and sustainable. This is proven by the better and better growth dynamics of all sectors. It is important to stress out that this dynamic growth rate has been achieved in parallel with favorable internal and external balance path. Due to the positive trends, Hungarian GDP reached its pre- crisis level by the end of 2014. The expected slowdown of Hungarian GDP in the fourth quarter did not occur. Hungarian economy grew by 3.4% year-over-year and by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. Hungarian GDP growth was the third strongest in the EU at an annual basis. This also means that fourth quarter data was above market expectations. GDP growth amounted to 3.6% for the whole year. In terms of GDP structure, the main contributors to economic performance were the productive branches. Industrial production increased by 4% mainly due to the capacity expansions of both automotive industry and its supply chain. Furthermore, construction rose by ca. 6.2% partly thanks to infrastructural projects, and despite the high base period values agriculture contributed significantly to GDP growth (+12.1% increase). Regarding market services, the performance of tourism and retail sales (+13% and +6.5% in December) was outstanding in line with the accelerating upturn of domestic demand. The value added of financial sector has also improved due to the governmental actions towards a more efficiently operating banking sector. In total, services increased by 2.4%. On the expenditure side, the economic growth was mainly driven by the increasing domestic demand, since both investments and consumption performed well. Households’ consumption 2 increased by 1.9%, which is supported by the low inflation environment and the favorable labor market trends (increasing employment and real wages). Low inflation environment is determined by utility price cuts of government and low oil prices. Several factors played a significant role in the expansion of investments (by +1.9%) such as the absorption of EU funds, the low yield environment, the Funding for Growth Scheme and significant performance of corporations. Despite the weak external demand, export dynamics also remained persistently high at the end of 2014 (+9.4%), which shows that the Hungarian economy has become more resistant to the cyclical downturns of the EU. Still, the external demand for vehicles remained high in the EU. However, due to the import content of gradually recovering domestic demand, net export contribution to GDP growth was smaller than in previous years. Macroeconomic outlook From 2014 on – based on the positive progress started in 2013 – the structure of GDP growth became more stable on all three sides. Furthermore, in the forecast horizon we assume that GDP growth will be even more balanced. The GDP growth is also expected to remain sustainable, as the government deficit target is well below 3%. In light of recent macroeconomic data, it is worth mentioning that economic outlook improved compared to previous expectations. Thus regarding growth progress, according to the Convergence Programme of Hungary 2015-2018, the economy is likely to expand by 3.1% and 2.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Domestic factors are also expected to determine fundamentally the growth performance in the coming periods. Employment rate will increase further. Households’ disposable income is likely to rise further supported by the salary increases implemented in certain public sector areas, the low oil price level and the final settlement of issues related to FX loans. Besides consumption, further investment growth is expected this year supported by EU fund absorption, the extended Funding for Growth Scheme and FGS+. Consequently, the investment rate – which showed a strong recovery in the recent quarters – may persistently remain above 20%. Finally, in terms of exports, the improvement of both export orders and sentiment indicators suggest lasting positive tendencies in the forthcoming periods. Export growth is expected to remain favorable thanks to the slowly improving external demand, which is also supported by the external demand for vehicles. However, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be smaller compared to the previous years since the growth of imports is also likely to accelerate due to increase of the domestic demand. The improvement of the balance of payments played a great role in the significant reduction of external debt during the past years. The external financing capacity is expected to be around an average of 7-8% of GDP over the forecast horizon, resulting in a significant reduction of Hungary’s vulnerability in the coming years. From 2016, economic growth will be further supported by several factors. The improvement of growth outlook, tax reductions and tax allowance (mainly decrease of income tax, bank tax, VAT on pork, increase of family tax allowance) generate additional income position for households and corporations, which stimulate the boost of the domestic demand. Additionally, the cut of bank tax also supports financial stability and the pick-up of credit supply. Balanced economic growth will be coupled with moderate consumer price increase over the forecast horizon resulting in a predictable economic environment for the economic agents. In 2014, consumer prices stagnated mainly due to the cuts in energy prices and external 3 disinflationary pressure. The latter clearly keeps 2015 inflation at a low level as well. Without any further one-off effects from 2016, inflation should accelerate, yet it is still expected to lag behind the national bank medium term target. As low internal and external effects fade out, inflation should reach 3% (which is the medium term inflation target of the Hungarian Central Bank) by the end of 2017. Investment climate According to the Ease of Doing Business Benchmarks 2015, Hungary occupies 54th place amongst 189 countries of the world as to the level of business regulations, climbing four positions compared to 2014. Hungary remains one of the most open ‘transition’ economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Its exports level reaches 95% of GDP. Given that, Hungary is an important element of a ‘global value chain’ within international production processes. As part of this chain, Hungarian industrial exports become components of goods exported by other countries. International investors demonstrated a significantly increased interest to Hungary’s sovereign bonds over the recent times; however, it does not seem to be consistent against the background of low profitability and Hungary’s relatively low sovereign credit ratings. In fact, sovereign ratings were improved (one-notch) by S&P in March 2015 and Fitch affirmed Hungary's long- term rating at BB+ and revised the outlook to positive from stable in May 2015. The course to ease monetary policy contributed significantly to the resumption of economic growth. Commercial banks were able to offer new loans on more favourable terms, following the reduction of the base interest rate to historical minimum by MNB. The launch and development of FGS programme provided a resource base for SME finance. However, lack of commercial banks’ involvement in this programme due to low profitability and increasing risks from non- performing loans became an obstacle for further lending through the FGS. National institutions for development – Hungarian Development Bank (MFB) and Hungarian Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) 1 – implement other governmental measures alongside the FGS programme to foster economic growth and further development of Hungarian economy. The main contributor to assisted finance for SMEs, prior to the launch of the FGS, was Hungarian Development Bank with its total portfolio of HUF 398.8 billion (EUR 1.26 billion) as of the end of December 20142. Hungary has been assigned sovereign credit ratings in foreign and national currencies by all international ratings agencies. Although these are not currently investor grade ratings, it is worth mentioning that since 2013, they have been stable and there are even implications for growth should this positive trend of GDP growth remain. Agency
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