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Volume XIII, Issue 1 February 2019 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 1 ISSN 2334-3745 Volume XIII, Issue 1 February 2019 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 1 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors...............................................................................................................................1 Articles The Islamic State After the Caliphate..............................................................................................................2 by Truls H. Tønnessen Ideological Infighting in the Islamic State.....................................................................................................12 by Cole Bunzel The Islamic State’s Way of War in Iraq and Syria: From its Origins to the Post Caliphate Era ..................22 by Ahmed H. Hashim Who are the ISIS People? .............................................................................................................................32 by Vera Mironova From Directorate of Intelligence to Directorate of Everything: The Islamic State’s Emergent Amni-Media Nexus .............................................................................................................................................................40 by Asaad Almohammad and Charlie Winter Making Sense of Jihadi Stratcom: The Case of the Islamic State ................................................................53 by Charlie Winter Not Gonna Be Able To Do It: al-Qaeda in Tunisia’s Inability to Take Advantage of the Islamic State’s Setbacks...............................................................................................................................................................62 by Aaron Y. Zelin The Failing Islamic State Within the Failed State of Yemen ..........................................................................77 by Elisabeth Kendall The Islamic State’s Provinces on the Periphery: Juxtaposing the Pledges from Boko Haram in Nigeria and Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group in the Philippines..........................................................................................87 by Jacob Zenn Research Notes Understanding Muslims’ Support for Suicide Bombing in West Africa: A Replication Study...................105 by C. Christine Fair and Samta Savla Resources Counterterrorism Bookshelf: 14 Books on Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism-Related Subjects...................123 by Joshua Sinai Henry Prunckun and Troy Whitford, Terrorism and Counterterrorism: A Comprehensive Introduction to Actors and Actions ......................................................................................................................................130 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai Robin Maria Valeri and Kevin Borgeson (Eds.), Terrorism in America ....................................................132 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai Bibliography: Humanitarian Intervention, Responsibility to Protect, Peacekeeping..............................134 ISSN 2334-3745 I February 2019 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 1 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes Bibliography: Genocide (since 1980) Part 2................................................................................................163 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes 475 Academic Theses (Ph.D. and MA) on Countering Violence Extremism (CVE), Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) and Terrorism Prevention..............................................................................................197 Compiled and selected by Ryan Scrivens Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects...........................................229 Compiled and selected by Berto Jongman Announcements Conference Monitor/Calendar of Events....................................................................................................261 Compiled and selected by Reinier Bergema Announcement: Award for Best Ph.D. Thesis Submitted and Defended in 2018......................................271 Words of Appreciation.................................................................................................................................272 About Perspectives on Terrorism..................................................................................................................273 ISSN 2334-3745 II February 2019 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 1 Welcome from the Editors Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume XIII, Issue 1 (February 2019) of Perspectives on Terrorism, available now at: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/PoT. Our free and independent online journal is a publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI) and the Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA) of Leiden University’s Campus The Hague. Now in its thirteenth year, Perspectives on Terrorism has over 8,200 regular e-mail subscribers and many more occasional readers and website visitors worldwide. The Articles of its six annual issues are fully peer reviewed by external referees while its Research and Policy Notes, Special Correspondence and other content are subject to internal editorial quality control. The articles of this Special Issue are the products of a conference held in Oslo 18-19 October 2018, entitled “Jihadism after the Caliphate”. The conference was organized by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), in cooperation with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It brought together leading specialists on the Islamic State and al-Qaida, along with senior policymakers and government analysts from Norway and other countries. This Special Issue on the evolution and future trajectory of the Islamic State has been prepared by Guest Editor Truls H. Tønnessen and his colleagues at FFI, in collaboration with Co-Editors James J.F Forest and Alex P. Schmid. In his introduction to the issue, he argues that the primary strength of the Islamic State is its ability and willingness to exploit conflicts that exist independently of the group, and that specific historical circumstances enabled the dramatic rise of the Islamic State. This is followed by Cole Bunzel’s analysis of ideological infighting within the Islamic State. Ahmed Hashim explains how one of the group’s key traditional strengths has been its ability to relocate to other areas that offered opportunities for territorial control, while Vera Mironova examines critical human resources dimensions of the group. Assad Almohammad and Charlie Winter offer unique insights about Islamic State’s Director of General Security, focusing in particular on his role in media production, which is then followed by Charlie Winter’s analysis of two key Islamic State doctrinal texts on media jihad. The following articles examine the Islamic State’s challenges in specific countries, beginning with Aaron Zelin’s analysis of the group’s setbacks in Tunisia. Then Elisabeth Kendall describes how and why the Islamic State is struggling for traction in Yemen, and this section concludes with Jacob Zenn’s comparative analysis of Islamic State affiliate groups in Nigeria and the Philippines. This issue ofPerspectives on Terrorism also features a Research Note by Christine Fair and Samta Salva examining Muslims’ support for suicide bombings in West Africa. In addition, the Resources section includes our regular contributions from Joshua Sinai (book reviews), Judith Tinnes (bibliographies), Ryan Scrivens (theses), Berto Jongman (web resources), and Reinier Bergema (conference calendar). We also provide our annual Words of Appreciation to all the peer reviewers, Editorial Board members and others who volunteer their time and expertise to make this open-source journal respected and valuable to the scholarly community. ISSN 2334-3745 1 February 2019 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 1 Articles The Islamic State after the Caliphate by Truls Hallberg Tønnessen Abstract Following the Islamic State loss of most of its territorial control and the fall of its self-declared Caliphate, many have warned that it is too early to declare that the group is defeated. The group has previously been able to come spectacularly back from defeat. However, this article will argue that while the Islamic State is roughly following the same strategy as last time when it was also weakened, it was specific historical circumstances that then en- abled the dramatic rise of the Islamic State. The article will also argue that in order to be successful, the group is dependent on conflicts and root causes that exist independently of the group, but which it can exploit. Keywords: Islamic State, Iraq, Syria, jihadism Introduction The aim of this Special Issue of Perspectives on Terrorism is to discuss various aspects and potential develop- ments for the Islamic State in particular and the jihadi movement in general following the fall of the group’s self-declared Caliphate. The aim of this introductory article is to use the group’s history to highlight some factors that have been important for the evolution of IS and that might be important for its future trajectory. Since the group’s dramatic takeover of Mosul in mid-2014 and the subsequent declaration of the Islamic State and the Caliphate there has been an avalanche of publications on various aspects of the Islamic State.[1] Some of this literature is focused on factors that have been more or less constant throughout the existence of the group, including its ideology and overall strategy.[2] The group currently known as the Islamic State (IS) has a long history and its origin is often traced back to the training camp established by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Herat,
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