This thesis was completed at the University of Bamberg in the framework of the Double Masters Program of the University of Bamberg and the University of Macedonia. It was recognized by the MA in Politics and Economics of Contemporary Eastern and Southeastern Europe of the Department of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies of the University of Macedonia. The Effectiveness of the EU’s Conditionality Policy in the Western Balkans Master Thesis in Political Science at the Department of Social and Economic Sciences of the Otto-Friedrich-University in Bamberg Chair: International Relations Head of Chair: Professor Dr. Thomas Ghering Adviser: Professor Dr. Thomas Ghering Author: Sofia Chatzistefanou Matriculation Number: 1971660 Address: Pythagora 14A, Panorama Thessaloniki Greece 55236 E-Mail: [email protected] Field of Study: Political Science, Master’s Degree 5 term of studying in this field/ 5 term at university Date of Submission: [05/09/2019] Page | 2 Abstract Despite having many common characteristics such as their Yugoslav history, their transitioning economies, the presence of many ethnic minorities in their territories and their geographical area, the Western Balkans comply at very different rates with the EU’s recommendation with one another. Thus, to examine the effectiveness of the EU’s conditionality policy, additional factors must be found. The focus here is on domestic factors and more specifically party competition and policy salience. To examine the above, a Rational Institutionalist Approach of the determinants of the effectiveness of the EU’s Conditionality is used, that views conditionality as “Reinforcement by Reward”. The method used to analyse the question and the stated hypothesis is a comparative case study between the energy and the environmental sectors of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Montenegro. Finally, conditionality was found to be more effective in Montenegro than in Bosnia & Herzegovina, especially in the energy sector. Concerning the first factor, party competitiveness, it seems that the number of democratic, pro-EU parties is significant. However, governmental changes after elections are not. Concerning the second hypothesis, according to the literature, energy should be more salient than the environment, especially in BiH. However, this was not supported by the evidence. The results of the analysis showed that there are no significant differences between the effectiveness of the EU’s conditionality in the energy and the environmental sector in BiH, while in Montenegro, compliance is better in the energy sector. Based on the above, further research is needed on the ways political systems affect the effectiveness of the EU’s conditionality in the Western Balkans, especially concerning Bosnia & Herzegovina and the lack of administrative capacity especially concerning Montenegro. Page | 3 Table of Contents I. List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... 5 II. List of Figures and Tables ........................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7 2.Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................................... 16 2.1 The Energy and Environmental policies of EU ................................................................... 16 2.1.1 The energy policy of the EU ................................................................................................... 16 2.1.2 The Environmental policy of the EU ...................................................................................... 19 2.2 The countries of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro............................................. 22 2.2.1 Bosnia and Herzegovina ......................................................................................................... 22 2.2.2 Montenegro ............................................................................................................................... 24 2.3 The Western Balkans and the EU ......................................................................................... 27 2.4 Theories on EU’s Conditionality ............................................................................................ 31 2.5 Hypotheses and Alternative Explanations ........................................................................... 38 3. Method, Data and Operationalization ..................................................................................... 41 3.1 Field of Investigation and Case Selection ............................................................................ 41 3.2 Method and Design ................................................................................................................. 42 3.3 Data and Operationalization .................................................................................................. 43 4. Data presentation and Analysis ............................................................................................... 46 4.1 Progress in Bosnia I Herzegovina ......................................................................................... 46 4.1.1 Energy ........................................................................................................................................ 47 4.1.2 Environment .............................................................................................................................. 51 4.2 Progress in Montenegro ......................................................................................................... 53 4.2.1 Energy ........................................................................................................................................ 54 4.2.2 Environment .............................................................................................................................. 57 4.3 Political Parties and Coalitions in Bosnia I Herzegovina ................................................... 59 4.4 Political Parties and Coalitions in Montenegro .................................................................... 66 4.5 Salience of the Energy vs Environmental sector ................................................................ 70 5. Discussion and Alternative Explanation ............................................................................... 75 5.1 Discussion................................................................................................................................. 75 5.2 Alternative Explanation ........................................................................................................... 79 6. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 82 7. References..................................................................................................................................... 86 8. Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 96 Page | 4 I. List of Abbreviations Bosnia & Herzegovina – BiH Environmental Action Program - EAP Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations – ENGOs European Atomic Energy Community – EURATOM European Bank of Reconstruction and Development - EBRD European Coal and Steal Community - ECSC European Commission – EC European Economic Community - EEC European Union – EU Instrument for Pre-Accession – IPA International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia - ICTY Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina -FBiH North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO Republika Srpska – RS Single European Act - SEA South-Eastern Europe - SEE Stabilization and Association Agreement – SAA Stabilization and Association Process – ASP Treaty on the Functioning of the EU - TFEU United Nations- UN United Nations Development Program - UNDP Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - USSR Western Balkans – WB Western Europe – WE Page | 5 II. List of Figures and Tables Page 17…Table 1. Percentages of EU’s Energy Import Dependency by fuel Page17…Graph 1. Percentage of EU’s two largest importers by fuel Page 19…Table 2. Summary of the significant changes in EU’s environmental policy in successive treaties Page 32…Figure 1. Theoretical Framework Page 43…Figure 2. Main relationship between variables Page 46…Table 3. Level of progress in complying with the EU’s recommendations in BiH for the Years 2006-2018 in the Energy and Environment sector Page 52…Table 4. Level of progress in complying with the EU’s recommendations in Montenegro for the Years 2006-2018 in the Energy and Environment sector Page 63…Table 5. Presidential Winners 2006-2018 Page 64…Table 6. State-Level Parliament 2006-2018 Page 64…Table 7. Coalitions at entity-level 2006-2018 Page 68…Table 8. Governing Coalitions in Montenegrin parliament 2006-2016 Page 68…Table 9. Presidential elections in Montenegrin parliament 2006-2016 Page | 6 1. Introduction With the term "The Balkans" or Balkan Peninsula, scholars usually describe the geographical area in SEE that borders the Adriatic, the Ionian, the Aegean and the Black Seas. The term, however, has multiple definitions, since it carries a geopolitical and historical meaning as well. This is even more evident with the phrase