Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness Wildland Fire Use Operations Guidebook July 2006
©Jim Steele Mollman Fire 2003
Confederated Salish & Kootenai Tribes Branch of Forestry Division of Fire Management
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION ...... 4 AUTHORITY ...... 8 WFIP Stage I - Initial Decision...... 8 WFIP Stage II – Short –Term Implementation Actions...... 9 WFIP Stage III – Long – Term Implementation Actions ...... 9 Periodic Assessments...... 9 Federal Fire Policy ...... 9 Discussion...... 10 Wildland Fire Use Planning and Assessment ...... 11 Components of the Stage I WFIP:...... 12 WFIP Stage I Content ...... 12 Components of Stage II WFIP with changing fire conditions:...... 14 Components of Stage III WFIP with escalating fire situation: ...... 14 WFIP Timeframes ...... 14 Risk Assessment ...... 15 Mission Mountains ...... 15 Jocko Primitive Area...... 18 Maximum Manageable Area...... 19 Rattlesnake Range...... 21 Maximum Manageable Area...... 21 Upper Revais Creek – Upper Magpie Creek –Upper Seepay Creek...... 23 Maximum Manageable Area...... 23 Risk Management ...... 27 Elements of Risk...... 27 Topography ...... 29 Weather ...... 29 Operational Decisions...... 30 Stage I WFU Assessment ...... 30 Stage II WFU Assessment ...... 30 Stage II Assessment with FUMA in place ...... 31 Stage III Assessment ...... 31 APPENDIX A: Delegation of Authority ...... 32 APPENDIX B: WFIP Stage I:...... 35 APPENDIX C: WFIP Stage II...... 52 APPENDIX D: WFIP Stage III...... 55 APPENDIX E: GLOSSARY...... 60 APPENDIX F: Meteorological Assessment...... 61 APPENDIX G: PHOTOGRAPH LOG...... 1
Page 2 of 72
Page 3 of 72 INTRODUCTION
All management has impact on the landscape. We are now realizing the long-term effects of custodial management over hundreds of thousands of acres of forestlands since the advent of organized fire suppression beginning about 1910. We also understand how a large number of natural cycles and systems are inextricably linked, and that interfering with one or several of these systems has profound consequences on others. We have begun to understand how suttle changes over time can converge on any given day or season to provide unprecedented conditions and present opportunities for dramatic change through natural events. Change is the key word, and understanding how change has provided the landscapes we now enjoy, we must also understand change is occurring every day to bring us closer to a significant departure of what we consider normal. The purpose of legislated wilderness is not to preserve a picture in time of mountains and forests, but preserve a complex of natural systems that are constantly changing. Each system comprised of actions and interactions that perpetuate ecosystems comprised of animal and plant life. This guidebook is a result of Tribal efforts and desires to provide wilderness and spiritual opportunities that are more aligned with naturally occurring events and as unblemished as it was before European contact. Direction to the Tribal Department of Forestry through the Flathead Indian Reservation Forest Management Plan (CY 2000) and its supporting Environmental Impact Statement provides management intent and National Environmental Protection Act clearance to establish a Fire Use for Resource Benefits program in the Tribal Mission Mountains Wilderness.
Following the Dawes Act, the only remaining link to past landscapes existed in the outlying, hard to access areas, like the Mission Mountains. The use of the Mission Mountains by Tribes was extensive, long before settlers discovered it. Mapped in memory the Missions remained obscure to non-Indians until the 1930’s when the US Geological Survey mapped and advertised them.
The landmark fire seasons of 1910 and 1938 made much of western society view fire as poor management or wasteful and we became good at the job of fire suppression. The forestry profession began to embrace new concepts in fire management during the late 1960’s. Cornerstone to managing fire in the wilderness was the White Cap Study Area in the Selway Bitterroot during the fire season of 1973. It demonstrated how unrestrained fire could be managed for resource benefits without having to accept extraordinary management risk. In 1982 Council approval of Ordinance 79A and Resolution 82-173 that further defined Tribal Wilderness boundaries and management direction. Next was the 1986 approval of the Wilderness Buffer Zone, and last the 1986 approval of the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness Fire Plan and Operational Plan.
The Tribal Wilderness Fire Plan of 1986 reflected management of Prescribed Natural Fire concepts as defined for public lands. It was based on a unique prescription because of indices generated by the National Fire Danger Rating System. Fire danger values were explicit and took management decision opportunities away from fire managers due of the limited fire behavior it described.
Following the fire fighter tragedies of 1994 in Colorado, and increase in Prescribed Natural Fire use, the interagency fire community penned new policy using the terminology of Wildland Fire Use for Resource Benefits. This defined management organization and qualifications necessary to manage fire using fire behavior projections and risk management. This guidebook will detail
Page 4 of 72 those requirements and how they will function within the Tribal organization. It updates the Flathead Indian Reservation Forest Management Plan and is tiered to the Forest Management Plan Environmental Impact Statement. It will also introduce a management scheme to manage wildland fires and prescribed fires for resource benefits. It will also help Tribal Division of Fire realize long-term management strategies for developing a Wildland Fire Use cadre and how to maintain it.
Prospects to manage fire within the Tribal Wilderness in concert with the Mission Mountains Wilderness managed by the US Forest Service can provide additional avenues to be successful. Further defining Wildland Fire Use and it’s relationship with Appropriate Management Response allows latitude for management strategies in the Jocko Primitive Area, Rattlesnake Range, and roadless areas in the North Missions, Upper Revais Creek, Upper Magpie, and Upper Seepay Creeks.
Appropriate Management Response is a stand-alone suppression policy that allows fire managers to direct suppression responses so fire fighters can manage their actions for a safer work environment and be more effective with suppression operations. It is strictly fire suppression but provides fire managers more flexibility to increase firefighter safety and effectiveness and provide more natural resource improvements based on risk management. The western front of the Jocko and Rattlesnake Ranges is heavily wooded with old growth forests. These forests are dynamic and moving closer to a landscape change through wildland fire. Many of the steep and rocky slopes here present high-risk conditions for firefighters. Appropriate Response actions will politically allow fire ©Jim Steele fighters to use strategies and tactics that permit them to posture for safer and more effective vantage points. The results will give more acres to the fire, but will satisfy federal and Tribal policy for employee safety, assure a greater chance of fire suppression success, and realize more natural resource benefits. Its proximity to the Rattlesnake Wilderness will compliment the Lolo National Forest’s management objectives that are also constructed around Wildland Fire Use.
Fire Use for Resource Benefits and Appropriate Response management schemes give Tribal leadership new chances to manage their fire suppression program, and allow fire to more actively function for the benefits of natural resources and the human and spiritual experience. The intent of this guidebook is to present managers the tools afforded by national policy to declare and manage wildland fire use for resource benefits. It will also help managers define appropriate response so that fire practitioners have the means to be safer and more effectively manage fire in remote locations with uncompromising landscapes.
Page 5 of 72
Appropriate Management Response (AMR) is define as, “any specific action suitable to meet Fire Management Unit (FMU) objectives. Typically, the AMR ranges across a spectrum of tactical options (from monitoring to intensive management actions). The AMR is developed by using FMU strategies and objectives, identified in the Fire Management Plan”². Wildland Fire Use fires exceeding their Maximum Manageable Area (MMA), or human caused fires will automatically fall into the AAR policy.
©Jim Steele
Page 6 of 72
SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF BASIC DECISIONS AND ACTIONS FOR A WILDLAND FIRE USE EVENT OR WILDFIRE EVENT. Fire Starts
Human Lightning
Full Management Suppression Decision
Full Suppression Wildland Fire Use Appropriate Response
Control Stage I Analysis Contain Confine Full Suppression Prescribed Fire Stage I WFU Decision
Prescribed Fire Prescribed Fire Objectives Met Objectives Not Periodic Fire Met Assessment
Conditions Conditions Not Periodic RX Fire Consistent w/ Consistent w/ Assessment Stage I Stage I Decisions or
Stage II Analysis Prescribed Fire Full Suppression Wildland Fire Use Stage II WFU Decision Suppression Periodic Fire Assessment
Conditions Not Consistent w/ Conditions Stage II Consistent w/ Decisions or Stage II Decisions Full Suppression Stage III
MMA Periodic Assessment Stage III FUMA + IMT Long Term Risk Support MMA Periodic Assessment Long Term Risk Conditions Consistent w/ Stage FUMA + Agency Support
Page 7 of 72
AUTHORITY
The 2005 Wildland Fire Use Implementation Procedures Reference Guide provides all formal and required administrative direction for managing Wildland Fire Use for Resource Benefits (WFURB).
Specific direction for using WFU in the Mission Tribal Wilderness is stated in the Flathead Indian Reservation Forest Management Plan (p79) and is stated as a management objective.
“By June 2001, develop a Wildland Fire for Resource Benefit Operations Plan with specific fire- use guidelines to be followed in the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness, special use areas (primitive, roadless, Flathead River Corridor) and unique habitats (big game winter range, rangelands, etc.). This objective may depend on activities defined in the agency Fire Management Plan and the possible development of formal management plans for these special use areas.”
This Wildland Fire for Resource Benefit Operations Guidebook will further state specific operational procedures in accordance with the Flathead Indian Reservation Fire Management Plan, Wildland Fire Use Implementation Procedures Reference Guide 2005, and the 2001 National Fire Plan.
The responsibility and authority to approve any Wildland Fire Use for Resource Benefits Fire (Wildland Fire Use or WFU) belongs to the Flathead Agency Superintendent. The Agency Superintendent is also responsible for approving Wildland Fire Implementation Plans (WFIP). This responsibility and accompanying authority may be delegated to either the Director of Tribal Natural Resources, or the Tribal Forest Manager by letter of delegation of authority (APPENDIX A). The letter of delegation will specify all three stages of the WFIP and periodic assessments, as well as the period covered by the delegation.
©Jim Steele
WFIP Stage I - Initial Decision
Stage 1 documentation is necessary to establish a baseline for all following decisions relevant to any single fire or group of fires. It is basic information common to all fires.
Stage I analysis is the responsibility of the Division of Fire, Fire Management Officer or Duty Officer.
Page 8 of 72
WFIP Stage II – Short –Term Implementation Actions
Short-term implementation actions based on Stage 1 decisions will be developed by Division of Fire personnel and presented for approval if management risk is low. If accumulated risks are moderate or high, then a qualified Fire Use Manager 2 (FUM2) will do the Stage II Analysis
WFIP Stage III – Long – Term Implementation Actions
Long-term actions will be based on information provided in the first two stages of the WFIP, advice from the Tribal Oversight Committee, and additional guidance from existing reservation plans. This will be the final planning stage and it develops strategy and tactics to meet management objectives.
The Stage III analysis is the responsibility of ©Jim Steele a Fire Use Manager Type 2 (FUM2).
©Jim Steele
O 2 AY 2 FIRE Periodic Assessments
This is a formal process to evaluate all WFU Fires for changing conditions, and to document that change relative to risk and complexity. This is completed by the Fire Management Officer, Duty Officer, or FUM2 depending on Accumulated Risk and presented to the Agency Superintendent for acceptance.
Federal Fire Policy
Operational statements from the Federal Fire Policy that will directly affect how this Tribal program will function are:
1. “Only one management objective will be applied to a wildland fire. Wildland fires will either be managed for resource benefits or suppressed. A wildland fire cannot be managed for both objectives concurrently. If two wildland fires converge they will be managed as a single wildland fire.” 2. “Human caused wildland fires will be suppressed in every instance and will not be managed for resource benefits.” 3. “Once a wildland fire has been managed for suppression objectives, it may never be managed for resource benefit objectives.” 4. “Wildland fire use is the result of a natural event. The land and Resource Management Plan, or the Fire Management Plan, will identify areas where the strategy of wildland fire use is suitable. The wildland fire use implementation plan (WFIP) is the tool that examines the available response strategies to determine if a fire is being considered for fire use.”
Page 9 of 72 5. “When a prescribed fire or a fire designated for wildland fire use is no longer achieving the intended resource management objectives and contingency or mitigation actions have failed, the fire will be declared a wildfire. Once a wildfire it cannot be returned to a prescribed fire or wildland fire use status.”
Discussion
Suppression fires will be managed for a single suppression objective that addresses firefighter and resident safety, and cost efficiency. Managers, however, may define that effort based on overriding firefighter safety priorities. Due to unacceptable risk margins, fire confinement, or containment strategies may be used that allows indirect tactics. This may include monitoring or other delaying tactics until weather or fuel type modifications that provides important favorable changes to affect fire intensity.
The WFIP will be used as the decision process and documentation format when Appropriate Response (AR) is used. The need for a FUM2 is not required to complete a WFIP or direct operations during a suppression or AR effort.
Prescribed fire offers a wide opportunity for managers to reintroduce fire into the Missions at varying intensities to accomplish management objectives. Although the primary objective for prescribed fire in the Missions as stated in the Forest Management Plan focuses on re- establishing White Bark Pine throughout its natural range, prescribed fire offers a means to lessen management risk in favor of future WFU fires by changing fuel types and age classes. Bureau of Indian Affairs policy for fire use applies.
©Jim Steele
©Jim Steele Photo 6 shows intense surface fire and tree crowning in the Bolles Meadow Fire of CY 2003 on Lolo National Forest and Plum Creek industrial lands. This fire eventually grew to several thousand acres and dt tildb LibtMd Page 10 of 72
Wildland Fire Use Planning and Assessment
The WFIP process is described in the 2005 Wildland Fire Use Implementation Procedures Reference Guide (WFUIPRG) using Figure 1.
Figure 1: Generalized flow of wildland fire implementation plan showing progression of stages and points of movement to a suppression response.
FIRE IGNITION
WFIP STAGE I
WILDLAND FIRE USE
OBJECTIVES SUPPRESSION
ACCOMPLISHED RESPONSE WFIP STAGE II
WFIP STAGE III
Using the WFIP, you have only two choices, either wildland fire use or a suppression response. Although a straightforward decision matrix, it does not elaborate on the acceptable options within the suppression choice.
Each stage of the WFIP is integral as it establishes new data but builds on previous sets of information. They describe and define change using immediate details and identify decision alternatives within policy to meet Tribal and National Fire Plan objectives. Each Stage (I-III) contributes to documenting history of each fire in designated areas.
Page 11 of 72 Components of the Stage I WFIP:
Components of the Stage I WFIP are a mirror of the standard Department of Interior Fire Report SF1202. The difference is critical though, because it is not used to generate statistical data; it is used to make a management decision. Consequently, descriptions must accompany data sets and provide reasonable interpretations of current conditions and predictions for the near future. Describing fire behavior and understanding it’s dynamics is crucial to forecasting and predicting future fire movement and burning intensities.
Figure 2: The four components of Stage I WFIP Analysis WFIP Stage I Content Strategic Fire Decision Criteria Size-Up Checklist • Fire Name • Fire Number Management • Administrative Actions Unit(s) • Forecasted • Start Weather date/time • Forecasted • Discovery Fire date/time Behavior • Current Size • Hazards and • Fuel Model(s) Safety • Current Concerns Weather • Management • Observed Actions Fire Behavior • Availability of • Location Resources • Fire Management Periodic Fire Unit Assessment • Cause
Tribal Division of Fire will include Wildland Fire Use as an integral part of planning and career development concerning all staff to provide qualified management opportunities based on national position requirements.
Table 2. WFIP planning minimum qualifications Minimum Planning Qualifications WFIP Stage I Unit Duty Officer (UDO) UDO or Fire Use Manager Type 2 WFIP Stage II (FUM2) depending on Accumulated Risk WFIP Stage III Fire Use Manager Type 2 (FUM2)
Page 12 of 72 Table 3. Stage I WFIP summary.
PURPOSE: Documents the fire situation and agency administrator decision, describes management actions, and sets the initial periodic assessment schedule as the preliminary stage of the planning process.
INFORMATION SOURCES: Fire size-up information, current fire weather and fuel moisture conditions, local information, agency administrator input, and site-specific information from the fire management plan (FMP).
COMPLETION TIME: The Strategic Fire Size-Up is completed as soon as aerial or on the ground resources provide a confirmation of the fire’s existence and the required fire size-up information.
All remaining Stage I components are completed within 8 hours of completion of Strategic Fire Size-Up.
Ignitions within approved areas of the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness, Jocko Primitive Area, and others will be evaluated based on analysis criteria. A recommendation will be presented to the Superintendent or delegated staff by the Fire Management Officer (or delegated acting, e.g. duty officer) outlining management options.
Personnel qualified to make this Stage 1 assessment are:
Tony Harwood Robert McCrea Darrel Clairmont Ron Swaney Ron Trahan
This responsibility will be included in employee interviews for career development, and become part of position performance as identified in future management plans and position descriptions.
See Appendix B for a complete Stage I WFIP format.
Page 13 of 72 Components of Stage II WFIP with changing fire conditions:
1. Objectives 2. Fire Situation 3. Management Actions 4. Estimated Costs 5. Periodic Fire Assessments
Components of Stage III WFIP with escalating fire situation:
1. Objectives and Risk Assessment Considerations 2. Maximum Manageable Area (MMA) and Maps 3. Weather Conditions and Drought Prognosis 4. Long Term Risk Assessment 5. Threats 6. Monitoring Actions 7. Mitigation Actions 8. Resources Needed to Manage the Fire 9. Contingency Actions 10. Information Plan 11. Estimated Costs 12. Post Burn Evaluation 13. Signatures and Dates 14. Periodic Fire Assessment
WFIP Timeframes
Established timeframes identifies the maximum passage of time allowed to assure a management decision during an escalating fire.
Page 14 of 72
Risk Assessment
Mission Mountains
Managing risk on any wildland fire is perhaps our greatest challenge. Wildland Fire Use fires provide additional organizational challenges because we take a less assertive role to limit the fire’s growth. The fire seizes opportunities to grow in the dimensions that create mass or size. Fires will gain position on the landscape over time; they will increase in mass, and on the right day(s) will develop momentum by moving dramatically in one or several directions expanding into more opportunities of growth. This is how fires used to develop over the course of a summer and fall, and how they created the landscapes of today.
Our concerns involve human safety and protection of property. The Mission Mountain Wilderness has two basic landforms and plant ecosystems that join to create our perception of risk. Steep slopes in combination with canyon orientation (basic direction) and fuel complexes compared to property boundaries and socio-political jurisdictions allow fire to threaten non- wilderness “values”. Prevailing winds from the west to south coupled with west facing slopes create a situation encouraging upslope fire movement. This is away from private property, the valley, and management objectives within the Mission Wilderness Buffer Zone.
Picture 7: taken during the early part of the 20th century this picture shows openings created by fire started at midslope and from the margins of the valley floor. Lower right side of this picture toward upper left side portrays the prevailing summer wind on the Flathead Indian Reservation, southwest to northeast. The view is toward the southeast.
Looking at old photographs of the Mission Front reveals many fire scars originating from or near the valley floor, and burning upslope into the mountains. Some scarring suggests strong winds that were more from the south than west, symptomatic of a major wind event rather than normal daily cycling of winds and temperatures. The west to east orientation of the canyons funnels prevailing winds into the heart of the Wilderness and rock barriers of the cirque basins, and away from the valley. The evidence we see today strongly suggests most fires burned in a direction favorable for managing wildland fires for resource benefits today.
What has changed with regard to the current landscape is the consistent increase in downed woody fuels, dead standing trees, and living biomass. This represents the fuels portion of the fire environment (fuels, weather, topography) that we refer to as available fuel. Everything about the Mission Mountains and Jocko Primitive Area landforms promotes active fire behavior. Forest fuel dynamics are now accumulating at a rate we have only experienced in the past on a much smaller scale. These conditions now present opportunities for intense burning that previously existed only in the high elevations for short periods during late summer. These conditions now
Page 15 of 72
exist in the foothills, throughout the Mission Wilderness Buffer Zone, and on private property in the valley.
Fuel continuity has increased both horizontally (surface fuels) and vertically (aerial fuels). This allows fire to burn in any direction. The significance of this is, even with a favorable wind on favorable slopes (upslope and to the east), fire can continue to expand laterally and downslope (north or south and towards the valley). Steep slopes now play an important part of the fire behavior equation because of downslope and cross-slope movements of the fire’s edge. Advancing rates of spread for these kinds of fire movement are much slower than at the head of the fire. This does provide suttle gains for fire’s position and mass (size). Fuel beds are deeper which also encourages fire movement toward the soil. This element is normal, but the extent is beyond what used to occur and allows fire more residence time in one place; it extends burning conditions into the future, and provides more complete fuel consumption by the fire.
Ultimately, any fire on the face of the Mission Mountains has the opportunity to move downslope toward private land and into the Buffer Zone. Being aware of how the fire(s) are gaining position will be a key factor in making good management decisions for long-term fire management.
Weather is an important factor since wind is considered the number one reason fires makes dramatic gains in short periods. Precipitation is an equally important aspect of weather because it allows managers respites from intense burning and large acre gains, and it allows managers opportunity to measure change in fuels and prepare for the more active burn days. Appendix C is a paper exploring meteorological conditions that would provide the greatest risk for downslope winds to push fires toward property boundaries.
It provides insight into some weather conditions that create northerly and easterly winds, which would create downslope winds stronger than diurnal night flows. The positive aspects of these conditions are they occur infrequently and are usually followed by significant moisture. At face value this is a good compromise, however there are important questions to answer regarding when the moisture arrives, how much moisture and in what period of time, and what are the relative risks if the moisture is delayed or insignificant?
Fires moving in an easterly and northerly direction will usually contain themselves in rock scree or high elevation cirque basins. Transition points along the main divide between the Flathead Indian Reservation and the Mission Wilderness on the Lolo National Forest that would allow fire to cross are sporadic. If it were fire from the east or west, the situation would be the same. Fires entering the other jurisdiction would enter into the heart of the wilderness. This would involve two jurisdictions and suggests management fall under the authority of a Fire Use Team or Type 2 IMT with Fire Use skills and qualifications.
©Jim Steele
Page 16 of 72
Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness and Buffer Zone Map:
©Jim Steele
Page 17 of 72
Jocko Primitive Area
The Jocko Primitive Area is the southerly extension of the Mission Tribal Wilderness ecosystems. It is interrupted by private land and some development in the St Mary’s Lake area but represents a continuous forest with deep canyons and wide glaciated valleys. The South Fork of the Jocko has land area that was harvested during the 1960’s and early 1970’s and is continuing to recover with brush fields and young tree seedlings and saplings. Some prescribed fire using aerial ignition in natural fuels has occurred on some of the south slopes.
The two fire environment components providing the greatest management risks are topography and continuous heavy fuels. The fuels in this region are not just a southern extension of the Mission Wilderness, but a link between the Missions and Rattlesnake Wilderness on the Lolo National Forest to the south. The Jocko is also the east to west connection from Seeley Lake and Placid Lake recreation areas to the Jocko Valley. During the fire season of CY 2003, fires in the Rattlesnake Wilderness pushed strongly to the east, but also demonstrated how fire would spread laterally across prevailing winds. These fires burned onto the Flathead Indian Reservation just as weather changes halted major high intensity fire spread.
Topography channels winds and encourages fire to spread up canyon. The basic east to west canyon orientation will provide great opportunity for fire to spread in a west to east direction threatening to cross the divide and posture itself close to Placid Lake. The combination of topography and continuous fuels encourages the three dynamics of large fires to occur, position, mass, and momentum.
Picture 9 shows the Mineral Primm Fire of CY 2003 and smoke of another fire to left side of the photograph. These fires are on Lolo National Forest and Plum Creek Industrial lands, and the reservation boundary is beyond the second background ridge.
Page 18 of 72
Maximum Manageable Area
Maximum Manageable Area (MMA) is a predetermined size by location that defines where fire exceeds management objectives. Management Action Points (MAP) are set to prompt managers to consider new procedures based on size and behavior of the fire. MAPs are also predetermined and delineated using various terrain attributes like fuel type changes, ridges, streams or natural barriers. MMA can be used to constrain potential fire impacts by limiting size (mass), or using Management Action Points that define key positions where direct action disallows the fire ever reaching momentum.
The combination of fuels, weather and topography dictate how large a fire will get, and where it will burn. As fire indices, weather, and fuel conditions are tracked through the summer, managers can apply a target MMA before a fire starts. As the Stage I WFIP is completed for any new fire, fire behavior and size projections will have to be prepared to assess future risk and potential for this fire to exceed the predetermined MMA. If it does, the fire can be declared a wildland fire and pursued using Appropriate Suppression Response.
The Jocko Landscape aligns with prevailing winds and the Jocko River provides a conduit of passage for people and fire from west to east and in reverse. Possible predetermined MMA ©Jim Steele sizes could be 50 to 200 acres graduated in 50-acre increments. Fire managers can use this approach as they watch the fire season develop. If they choose to set a predetermined MMA it will be documented using a Stage I format that develops rationale and identifies environmental flags for monitoring change that affects fire behavior.
An example might consider the Energy Release Component Index, how quickly it has been increasing, how it compares to historical trends, which fuel types and topographic features will be included, short term and long term weather forecasts, regional fire occurrence, and availability of resources. Depending on how severe the fire season has or is developing and what the competition for suppression resources is will influence where fires will be allowed to develop, and where their size will be capped by a predetermined MMA.
If short-term weather forecasting reveals moderate fire weather, and the location of the new fire indicates 300 to 400 acres of manageable area, the predetermined MMA might be 100 to 150 acres with constraints of natural barriers or existing roads. If the forecast changes and predicted size increases are unacceptable, then the fire can immediately be placed into suppression and Appropriate Response criteria will prevail. This will all be documented using Stage I and Stage II WFIP.
Page 19 of 72
Jocko Primitive Area Map:
Page 20 of 72
Rattlesnake Range
Fuels and topography are an important combination along the Rattlesnake Range front facing into the Jocko Valley. Natural fuels are heavy and continuous and canyon orientation is west to east. They offer opportunity for fire to grow large in a short period, and like the Missions, has a foothills complex that is heavily wooded with mixed ownership near the valley bottom. Some of this area has been logged (Big Knife, Finley and Schely Creeks) and offers road access and management investments. The unroaded portion presents steep slopes and canyon walls that influence fire behavior by accelerating winds and fire spread.
Steep slopes also challenge firefighters, and in combination with heavy fuels, suppression tactics become entangled with safety issues. Risk management will be concerned with these and fire behavior threats to private land and Tribal forest investments.
Fires leaving the reservation and crossing onto the Lolo National Forest will fall under the jurisdiction of Wildland Fire Use in the Rattlesnake Wilderness. During CY 2003 fire was observed in the Rattlesnake Wilderness as persistent and often unsafe for firefighters. Similar conditions will exist throughout the Rattlesnake Mountains, however this western front is steeper, and presents more rock barriers than east of the Rattlesnake Divide.
©Jim Steele ©Jim Steele
Photo 10 is a panorama of the western front of the Rattlesnake Range, which is the eastern border of the Jocko Valley. The hydrologic divide is the reservation boundary and it is made of rock and sparse vegetation on steep canyon walls and narrow ridges. Ridges and rock outcrops are barriers to fire movement and a good management point for fires in the Wildland Fire Use or Appropriate Management categories.
Maximum Manageable Area
MMA can also be predetermined in this area particularly where fires are low on the western slopes of the mountains. Predetermined sizes can range where managers feel most comfortable, but would realistically fall into graduations of 10 to 20 acres, as the risk of fire escape is higher here.
Page 21 of 72
Rattlesnake Range Map:
Page 22 of 72
Upper Revais Creek – Upper Magpie Creek –Upper Seepay Creek
The upper portions of these three areas are mostly roadless and a substantial portion with lodgepole pine killed by mountain pine beetle. Slopes are moderate to steep with deep indentured drainages. These areas offer a high-risk suppression alternative if dealing with sustained drought conditions. Although fire behavior risk is low when fire danger indices are moderate to low, there is a high degree of risk when sending firefighters into the area for low risk fire suppression. These locales present a horizontal landscape because they are connected with each other paralleling the Reservation Divide and Flathead River Valley.
Maximum Manageable Area
Predetermined MMA is a reasonable approach to manage fire in these areas. Increments of 5- 10 aces allow managers opportunity to provide swift and strong fire suppression if conditions warrant it. Close coordination with the Lolo National Forest is imperative as their side may support burning more acres on the reservation side and provide more latitude for Division of Fire personnel.
Photo 11: Lower Seepay during the CY 2005 Seepay2 Fire.
Page 23 of 72
Upper Revais Map:
Page 24 of 72
Upper Magpie Map:
Page 25 of 72
Upper Seepay Map:
Page 26 of 72
Risk Management
Management of fires using Wildland Fire Use for Resource Benefits (WFU) or Appropriate Response (AR) fits these areas. This will exclude extreme years with severe short or long-term drought. During “normal” seasonal conditions, naturally occurring fires can be monitored from a distance and be allowed to burn themselves out over a short duration. Organizational management can be structured around the Stage I WFIP using existing Division of Fire personnel.
Human caused fires will be suppressed and can follow appropriate response objectives unless under investigation as a suspicious ignition. Organizational structure and management objectives can be determined and documented using a Stage I WFIP using Division of Fire personnel.
Lightning caused fires within the approved units can be managed as Wildland Fire Use following management steps specified in the Wildland Fire Use Implementation Reference Guide 2005. Management risk is usually low during pre and post fire season conditions. As risk increases, organizational structure grows and demands a cadre of higher qualifications. Risk will be critical, as weather and fuels become dominant contributors to fire behavior and burning intensity. Pre determined Maximum Manageable Area (MMA) can assist decision making by limiting fire before mass and momentum occur. Appropriate response strategies will guide suppression efforts to benefit both firefighter safety and other management objectives.
Elements of Risk
The Fire Environment provides a framework to explore risk management under both policy scenarios. They will be discussed relative to their contribution to the three dynamics of fire growth: mass, momentum, and position.
Fuels
The entire front of the Missions, Rattlesnake Ranges and the Jocko Primitive Area are experiencing dramatic change. Large fires at the turn of the last century, and most recently in the 1930s and 1950s have left mosaics of age, size classes and species over the entire landscapes. Some of the youngest forest stands are 50-60 years old. Species compositions were established and are moving with successional change towards single species dominance. Our experience with these forest stands suggests a dramatic change of the system, which occurs through fire. This cycle depends on the combination of dead and downed fuels as well as many live fuel characteristics that encourage fire growth horizontally and vertically.
A visual scan of the landscapes reveals this alteration is occurring. The interactions of insects and disease show this change from live to dead fuels, and the suttle changes of live surface fuels with the increase of sunlight to the forest floor. Major change agents such as Mountain Pine Beetle, Dwarf Mistletoe, Amillaria Root Rot, and Tussock Moth are combining to create new opportunities for wildland fire during drought conditions to create major change over significant parts of the landscape.
Page 27 of 72
The upper reaches of Revais, Magpie, and Seepay Creeks show the work of insects and disease as lodgepole pine and Douglas fir populations are declining. The change of near pure stands indicates the initial steps of major change as demonstrated by fires during CY 2000.
The seven characteristics of fuels that contribute to fire behavior are increasing in scale to influence burning intensity, burning profile, spread directions and fire spread rates, as well as increasing the vertical fuels (aerial) that contributes to crowning and spotting.
Knowing when these elements come into play is important and monitoring fuels changes through the seasons will become a key to managing fire using WFU and AR.
©Jim Steele
Photo 11 A wisp of smoke can be seen in the center of this picture. Somewhere in the Big Knife area in Jocko Valley, the landscape is showing change with the red tops of dead trees and gray skeletons of dead trees from the past.
A large percentage of these forest ecotypes are made up of old growth timber. The physical nature of these trees may vary in size, density, and condition. However the very nature of old growth forests contribute to more tree fall (dead and live trees), increased residence time burning, higher burning intensities at the ground surface, more erratic fire behavior, and a higher production rate of large aerodynamic firebrands for convective and wind transport. Live trees are under more stress (light and moisture) and become less fire resistant as old age, and stand density increases. Natural fuel type barriers exist where fire regimes have changed to early seral stages. These can be seen as fire scars from CY 2000 and 2003 fires.
Page 28 of 72
Topography
Terrain is a universal factor we have no control over. It represents thousands of years of formation and influence to forest fuels and climate. It affects fire behavior and burning intensity dramatically through temperature and humidity changes, and wind channeling and enhancements. The overall alignment of canyons to valley systems and prevailing winds often creates wind tunnels that direct and accelerate wind to create profound fire spread and intensity. Slopes and canyon alignments all encourage fire spread deeper into the management units, but also toward property boundaries. Within the Missions, topography is favorable since it encourages fire to burn deeper into the Wilderness. If fire should breach the divide between the Tribes and the US Forest Service, fire would enter the other jurisdiction deep inside the Wilderness and continue to burn with policy direction favoring Wildland Fire Use. The Mission Mountains abound with rock formations as natural barriers to fire movement. However, the Jocko, Rattlesnake Range, and Upper Magpie, Revais, and Seepay Creeks do not. Here weather and fuel types will deter fire spread and intensity.
Weather
Weather is the most variable element of the fire environment and demands we study it to realize how weather is affecting fuels and environmental conditions. The discussion in Appendix __ is important to managers because it explains how normal and anomalous weather systems can affect fire in the Missions, Jocko, and Rattlesnake Ranges. The two important summer conditions are the Thermal Trof and the Upper Air High Pressure Ridge. Important attributes to consider of both of these are:
1. What is the axis of the Trof? This is important as it directly influences how winds enter the low pressure and consequently determines wind direction at the fire site. This is an important discussion point with a meteorologist. 2. Will the low-pressure trof strengthen, and where will the axis move and how quickly? What will be the axis locations over time? These questions give you a perspective of time and future strength and direction of winds. The more westerly the axis moves, the greater the chances of easterly winds at the fire site (downslope fire spread). If the axis centers over the fire area, there would likely be more convergence and result in stronger convection. 3. How strong will the shift of the Thermal Trof be? Is there a concern for the reversal of winds (east to west) when the trof moves east? 4. What is the position of the upper air ridge and how does this affect local wind? Is it expected to move, and if so, when and where, and will it affect winds at the fire site? 5. Is there subsidence associated with the ridging and how will this affect the fire area?
The next important aspect to monitor is dew point since it is the best indicator of air mass moisture. As described in the paper, temperature may change (hot to cool), but dew point is an indicator of air mass moisture, which may stay relatively dry. Monitoring dew point change over time would be one way to track seasonal developments as well as short-term change.
Making weather, a key daily aspect of monitoring should reference any changes occurring in Canada. As Steve Stoll indicates, Canadian systems affect the Mission Mountains area with
Page 29 of 72
winds from the east, or as stated a “back door cold front”. The interesting aspect of this anomaly was that significant winds preceded atmospheric change or precipitation by twelve to fifteen hours at high elevation sites. Presently only valley sites are used and this gave only a three hour warning of the front and preceding winds. This indicates a need for adding Remote Area Weather Stations (RAWS) to the current system and sighting them to represent high elevation sites.
The next area of concern would be locating RAWS in the Jocko Primitive Area, and at least one in the upper reaches of Revais, Magpie, or Seepay Creeks. Correlating meteorological data to real time conditions is paramount to chronicle WFU or AR fire conditions, particularly when so close to the Tribal boundaries.
Operational Decisions
All fires approved for Wildland Fire Use will follow the protocols listed in the Wildland Fire Use Implementation Procedures Reference Guide, May 2005 or its updated version. During Stage I WFIP development Division of Fire, personnel can complete assessments and projections to give decision makers adequate information. Although the primary decision to allow a fire to be managed as a WFU, anyone with delegated authority to make these decisions should be included in the initial assessment where possible.
Stage I WFU Assessment
1. Division of Fire personnel gather field data and document using approved Stage I WFIP forms (Appendix B). 2. Fire Management Officer (FMO or Duty Officer) notifies the primary decision maker of a new fire and: a. Briefs using current information. b. Sets a time and place for the WFIP review and WFU decision to be made. c. Requests direction on notifying other decision makers with WFU authority. 3. Prepares operational plan briefing addressing fire size up, monitoring plan, decision tree needs, and future briefing schedules, what will constitute significant change to require a Stage II WFIP.
Stage II WFU Assessment
1. Division of Fire personnel completes a Risk Assessment nomogram to determine level of Management Risk. 2. Division of Fire personnel complete Stage II WFIP forms (Appendix C) if Management Risk is moderate or less. 3. FMO requests a Fire Use Manager (FUMA) to complete Stage II forms if Management Risk exceeds moderate. 4. Notifies WFU decision makers of changing conditions; briefs using current information. 5. Sets time and place for formal briefing and review of Stage II conditions and actions taken to date with WFU decision makers. 6. FMO notifies Tribal Departments and personnel of formal briefing: a. DNR wilderness managers
Page 30 of 72
b. DNR designated specialists (Tribal Rangers, Wildlife, Hydrology, Smoke Management, etc) c. Elders Representative d. Public Affairs e. Tribal Council Representative f. Fire Operations, Prevention, Dispatch g. Tribal Law and Order Representative h. Land Operations Representative 7. FMO facilitates discussion toward a Tribal perspective that can be used by the primary decision maker. 8. FMO presents need for FUMA or introduces the option of using a FUMA based on Management Risk nomogram. The decision for a FUMA should be made and resource order placed because of this briefing. 9. FMO provides a briefing on what constitutes a significant change prompting a Stage III WFIP.
Stage II Assessment with FUMA in place
1. FMO completes steps 1-6 and directs FUMA to present briefing on technical aspects the fire/s (size-up, monitoring, management objectives, successes, failures). 2. FUMA presents management options and risks associated with each one; provides briefing on what constitutes significant change prompting a Stage III WFIP. 3. FMO facilitates discussion toward a Tribal perspective that can be used by the primary decision maker. 4. FUMA presents a management perspective for either resource ordering of, or considering use of a Fire Use Management Team (FUMT). a. Option 1: Use FUMA in place with agency support overhead. b. Option 2: Order an organized FUMT. c. Option 3: Order IMT2 short team and use qualified FUMA in place.
Stage III Assessment
1. Complete steps 1-6 plus have in place a FUMA or FUMT. 2. FUMA or FUMT presents management options and risk associated with threat of fire leaving the approved MMA.
Page 31 of 72
APPENDIX A: Delegation of Authority CSKT Tribal Forest Manager and Director of Tribal Department of Natural Resources
Date:
From: Ernest T Moran, Superintendent Flathead Agency
To: ______, Tribal Forest Manager, Branch of Forestry
______, Director, Department of Natural Resources
Consistent with your authority and responsibilities as Forest Manager and Director of Department of Natural Resources for the Confederated Salish & Kootenai Tribes and Flathead Agency, Bureau of Indian Affairs, I am delegating you these authorities to act for me during my absence for Wildland Fire Use incidents:
1. You are delegated all responsibilities and authorities to authorize or decline all fires within the exterior boundaries of the Flathead Indian Reservation that are within approved boundaries for Wildland Fire Use. 2. You will represent the Superintendent with full authority to approve or decline management of fires as described above following the Wildland Fire Use -Implementation Procedures Reference Guide, January 2005, and Bureau of Indian Affairs Fire Use Handbook.
Your authorities do not exceed the authorities of this delegation and you are expected to keep the Superintendent informed and current on all decisions, events, and plans on a regular schedule or when possible. This delegation of authority is for the period January 1, 2___ through December 31, 2____.
______Ernest T Moran, Superintendent Flathead Agency Date
Wildland Fire Implementation Plan
Page 32 of 72
Standardized, reproducible forms for the WFIP process are included in this Appendix. While a standardized format is provided for the WFIP (in Word format) that can be used to prepare the document, an electronic version similar to the FSA electronic program will be available. Users can choose to prepare a WFIP by using the forms presented in this appendix or by using the electronic version when available.
Specific forms included for the complete WFIP are: WFIP Stage I • Strategic Fire Size-Up • Decision Criteria Checklist • Relative Risk Rating —Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment: Step 1: Determining Values —Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment: Step 2: Determining Hazard —Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment: Step 3: Determining Probability —Wildland Fire Relative Risk Assessment: Step 4: Determining Wildland Fire Relative Risk • Planning Needs Assessment Chart • Fire Use Manager Decision Chart
WFIP Stage II
WFIP Stage III
WILDLAND FIRE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Page 33 of 72
Table of Contents Fire Name Fire Number Administrative Unit(s)
Documentation Product NEEDED COMPLETED WFIP STAGE I Strategic Fire Size-Up Decision Criteria Checklist Management Actions Periodic Fire Assessment
NEEDED COMPLETED WFIP STAGE II Objectives Fire Situation Management Actions Estimated Costs Periodic Fire Assessment
NEEDED COMPLETED WFIP STAGE III Objectives MMA Definition Weather Conditions & Drought Prognosis Long Term Risk Assessment Threats Monitoring Actions Mitigation Actions Resources Needed Contingency Information Plan Estimated Costs Post Burn Evaluation Signatures & Dates Periodic Fire Assessment Appendix
Page 34 of 72
APPENDIX B: WFIP Stage I:
Strategic Fire Size-UP
Fire Name
Fire Number
Administrative Unit(s)
Start Date/Time
Discovery Date/Time
Current Date/Time
Current Size
Fuel Model
Current Weather
Observed Fire Behavior
Location: Legal Description
Latitude / Longitude
Local Description
WFU Approved FMU (Circle appropriate FMU WFU Not Approved
Description) Natural Ignition Human-caused Ignition Cause (Circle Fire Cause)
Wildland Fire Initials Date/Tim Use e Suitability for Wildland Fire Candidate – Use (Circle situation, initials of Continue with Suppression person preparing, date/time) Decision Criteria Checklist
Decision Criteria Checklist
Page 35 of 72
Decision Element YES NO
Is there a threat to life, property, or public and firefighter safety that cannot be mitigated? Are potential effects on cultural and natural resources outside the range of acceptable effects?
Are relative risk indicators and/or risk assessment results unacceptable to the appropriate agency administrator?
Is there other proximate fire activity that limits or precludes successful management of this fire?
Are there other agency administrator issues that preclude wildland fire use?
The Decision Criteria Checklist is a process to assess whether or not the situation warrants continued wildland fire use implementation. A “Yes” to any element on the checklist indicates that the appropriate management response should be suppression oriented.
Approved Response Signature/Position Date Action (Check One) Suppression Response Wildland Fire Use Response
Justification for Suppression Response:
Page 36 of 72
Page 37 of 72
Page 38 of 72
NOTES:
Page 39 of 72
Page 40 of 72
NOTES:
Page 41 of 72
Page 42 of 72
NOTES:
Page 43 of 72
Page 44 of 72
Page 45 of 72
NOTES:
Page 46 of 72
Page 47 of 72
Page 48 of 72
Page 49 of 72
Management Actions
FORECASTED WEATHER (include an initial assessment of air quality forecasts/allowable burn days as applicable)
FORECASTED FIRE BEHAVIOR
HAZARDS AND SAFETY CONCERNS
MANAGEMENT ACTIONS
AVAILABILITY OF RESOURCES
Periodic Fire Assessment
Insert the following sections, either by completing new versions or by using those already completed as part of WFIP Stage I:
• Decision Criteria List
• Wildland Fire Risk Assessment
o Part 1: Planning Needs Assessment o Part 2: Fire Use Manager Decision Chart
• Signature Page
Page 50 of 72
Periodic Fire Assessment
Signature Table
Assessment Frequency: Valid Dates:
WFIP Fire Use Decision Criteria Planning Manager Name/Title Date Checklist Valid Stage Level Required Yes/No I, II, III I, II, Other
Page 51 of 72
APPENDIX C: WFIP Stage II Attach Stage I Information
Objectives
Objectives
Fire Situation
Current & Predicted Weather
Current & Predicted Fire Weather
Threats
Safety Considerations
Environmental Concerns
External Concerns
Management Actions
Management Actions
Estimated Costs
Estimated Costs
Periodic Fire Assessment
Page 52 of 72
Insert the following sections, either by completing new versions or by using those already completed as part of WFIP Stage I:
• Decision Criteria List
• Wildland Fire Risk Assessment
o Part 1: Planning Needs Assessment o Part 2: Fire Use Manager Decision Chart
• Signature Page
Periodic Fire Assessment
Page 53 of 72
Signature Table
Assessment Frequency: Valid Dates:
WFIP Fire Use Decision Criteria Planning Manager Name/Title Date Checklist Valid Stage Level Required Yes/No I, II, III I, II, Other
Page 54 of 72
APPENDIX D: WFIP Stage III Attach Stage I & II information. Update Stage I and/or II as necessary.
Objectives
Natural & Cultural Resource Objectives
Constraints
Maximum Manageable Area (MMA) – Definitions and Maps
Acres in MMA
Definition of MMA
Attach Map of MMA
Weather Conditions and Drought Prognosis
Weather Conditions & Drought: Discussion & Prognosis
Long Term Risk Assessment and Map (If Applicable)
Risk Assessment (Described techniques utilized and outputs, include maps as appropriate)
Threats
Page 55 of 72
Threats to MMA
Threats to Public Use and Firefighter Safety
Smoke Dispersion and Effects
Other Threats
Monitoring Actions
Describe monitoring actions, frequency, duration.
Mitigation Actions
Describe holding actions and other mitigation actions, management action points that initiate these actions, and key to map if necessary.
Resources Needed to Manage the Fire Under Expected Weather Conditions
Describe resources necessary to accomplish ignition, holding, other mitigation actions, and monitoring actions.
Contingency Actions
Page 56 of 72
Describe contingency actions, management action points that that initiate them, resources needed, etc.
Information Plan
Describe information plan, contacts, responsibilities, etc.
Estimated Costs of Managing the Fire
Describe costs in terms of resources needed, projected duration, etc.
Post Burn Evaluation
Describe post-burn evaluation procedures, resource requirements, costs, duration, etc.
SIGNATURES
Include signatures/titles/dates for preparing, approving, and any concurring individuals
Periodic Fire Assessment
Page 57 of 72
Insert the following sections, either by completing new versions or by using those already completed as part of WFIP Stage I:
• Decision Criteria List
• Wildland Fire Risk Assessment
o Part 1: Planning Needs Assessment o Part 2: Fire Use Manager Decision Chart
• Signature Page
Periodic Fire Assessment
Page 58 of 72
Signature Table
Assessment Frequency: Valid Dates:
WFIP Fire Use Decision Criteria Planning Manager Name/Title Date Checklist Valid Stage Level Required Yes/No I, II, III I, II, Other
Page 59 of 72
APPENDIX E: GLOSSARY
Appropriate Management Response The application of the appropriate management response to naturally Wildland Fire Use ignited wildland fires to accomplish specific resource management objectives in predefined designated areas outlined in fire management plans. Any nonstructural fire that occurs in the wildland. Three distinct types Wildland Fire of wildland fire have been defined and include wildfire, wildland fire use, and prescribed fire. An unplanned, unwanted wildland fire, including unauthorized human- Wildfire caused fires, escaped wildland fire use events, and escaped prescribed fire projects, and all other wildland fires where the objective is to put the fire out. Any fire ignited by management actions to meet specific objectives. A Prescribed Fire written, approved prescribed fire plan must exist, and NEPA requirements (where applicable) must be met before ignition. Seven Characteristics of Fuels That Contribute to Fire Behavior
APPENDIX F: Meteorological Assessment for the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness Fire Use Plan By Weatherology, Inc.
Overview
Weatherology, Inc. completed this meteorological assessment for the development of the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness Fire Use Plan, as requested by Jocko Valley Consulting LLC. This section of the Fire Plan addresses meteorological and climatological factors needed to develop a fire management tool for prescribed and wildfire operations. It takes a general approach, focusing on synoptic meteorology and observations, as a precursor to significant weather changes. The focus is on the classic fire season in the Northern Rockies, critical fire weather patterns during the summer, and anomalous weather.
Classic Fire Season in the Northern Rockies
The polar jet stream migrates to higher latitudes during the spring, which allows weather systems to track over the Intermountain Region. As a result, May and June are climatologically the wettest months of the year. Daily mean temperatures increase rapidly as the summer solstice approaches. In early July, the mid-latitude (polar) jet stream weakens as the subtropical jet stream strengthens over the western U.S. The upper-air flow becomes southwesterly, providing hotter and drier conditions at higher latitudes. July is the most critical month and, in many cases, can indicate the length and intensity of the fire season. Important factors that make July a pivotal month are: 1. Longest day light hours, which provide abundant insolation (incoming solar radiation) and increases the ambient and fuel temperatures 2. Fine fuels that are available to burn 3. A dry month climatologically 4. Unstable air due to surface heating 5. Thunderstorms, which are dominant, with very light and spotty precipitation
Around mid-August, historic weather data suggest a return of the westerlies. In other words, Pacific weather systems have more influence over the Intermountain region. Dry cold fronts are usually observed in the latter part of August, September, and even into October, during extended fire seasons. Precipitation may be light, or even absent, with wind-driven events becoming the main concern for fire operations. Wind speed and wind shifts are the most significant parameters. These fronts usher in a change of air mass, although a number of cases show little change in dew point temperature even when air temperatures have cooled.
In the fall, the polar jet stream becomes continuous and strengthens over the region causing increasing storm frequency and wetting rain potential. Because of a more active weather pattern, air masses can vary greatly with large swings in temperatures and dew points. Pacific moisture is more dominant over western Montana, however, cold and dry Canadian air occasionally will be observed when the polar jet strengthens and steers stronger weather systems across the region from the north. Clouds and precipitation increase during late October.
Additionally, daily mean temperatures decrease rapidly as the days become shorter.
Synopsis of a Summer Critical Fire Weather Pattern
There are two important synoptic weather features that establish a critical fire pattern in the height of the summer season. They are the thermal trof and the upper-air high (ridge). The thermal trof is associated with a continental tropical air mass (cT) and may extend vertically from 10,000 to 14,000 feet mean sea level (msl). This air mass is categorized by hot temperatures (90-105 degrees), very dry air (5-15% RH) and, depending on the location of the axis of low pressure, moderate winds (10-20 mph sustained). Secondly, the upper-air ridge (usually above 15,000 feet) is normally located east of the surface thermal trof and provides a southwest flow over the Mission terrain. This upper high enhances subsidence (warming and drying the air) and tends to stabilize the atmosphere. However, the subtropical jet stream is associated with this atmospheric condition and may provide increasing instability if any disturbances move along the direction of southwest flow. This is a good case for dry thunderstorm development. The diagrams below illustrate the relative position of the thermal trof (surface chart) and upper-air ridge (500mb or 18,000 ft chart) in a critical fire weather situation.
Surface Chart
NOAA
Note the pronounced thermal trof over the Southwest U.S., which extends over the Great Basin to the Canadian boarder. This trof is associated with intense surface heating which results strong upward motion. Additionally, convergence into this trof can generate strong low-level winds regardless of the time of day.
Upper-Air Chart (18000 feet msl)
NOAA
Note the intense, upper-air ridge which is centered over the Southwest U.S., and extends northward to the Canadian high plains. The position of this ridge enhances the southwest flow aloft, resulting in warm and generally dry conditions. Furthermore, a subsidence inversion is associated with this feature and produces a downward motion of air that warms, dries and stabilizes the atmosphere.
Two critical “watch-out” situations may result and should be anticipated when the thermal trof and upper-air ridge shift eastward. They are the changing speed and direction of winds and the limited modification of the cT air mass.
Winds Because the thermal trof is a low-pressure area, air convergences into the center supports upward vertical motion (convection). This convergence results in the movement of air and establishes a pressure gradient. Low-pressure strength and location, relative to the Mission terrain, are important factors to determine wind direction and speed. The surface chart above shows the thermal trof over Idaho. An easterly component to the wind should be expected. Considering the Mission terrain, a northeast wind would likely impact the area. However, if this low- pressure area strengthened and centered over the Northern Idaho, a southeast wind would result. As the thermal trof moves into Montana, gradient winds become light with local winds dominant. After the trof axis shifts east of the divide, a westerly component will be observed. Again, relative strength and location dictate whether northwest, west, or southwest winds will be observed.
Air Mass Modification Many weather forecasters call the passage of a thermal trof a “cold front,” which is misleading. It is important to remember that as the trof axis moves east of the Mission area, hot and dry conditions still dominate, although temperatures become relatively cooler, for example, from 100 degrees to 90 degrees. However, the dew point temperature remains critically low. Over the last 30 years, dew point temperature averages across the Mission region have been observed in the mid 40’s (44-47 degrees), and temperatures lower than this are critical and can directly influence fire behavior. Identifying the dew point and following the trend is important in planning fire operations.
The atmosphere has not really changed and still will support explosive fire activity, although the triggering points for fire behavior have changed. On some occasions, the thermal trof will reform upstream, and maintain hot and dry conditions over the region. More typically, a “marine push,” or cold front will track eastward. A Pacific maritime polar air mass (mP) accompanies this cold front, eventually cooling temperatures and raising the dew point.
Fire Season Air Mass Trajectories The dominant upper-air flow provides a “trajectory,” or track for an air mass when leaving a source region. Air mass characteristics, such as moisture and temperature, are controlling factors, which directly link to fuel available and fire behavior. The duration or modification of these properties should be closely observed. Transition from one air mass to another, i.e. a cold front, is the most critical event and very important to fire operational planning. The diagram below illustrates three air mass trajectories.
These trajectories are labeled Monsoonal, Subtropical, and Mid-Latitude. Air mass characteristics (temperature and moisture) are associated with these trajectories and depend on the intensity and position of the North Pacific and Bermuda highs, which are semi-permanent pressure systems.
Monsoonal (reversal of wind) On some occasions in late July, this track provides moist, tropical air (monsoonal moisture) also know as maritime tropical air mass (mT). This results in higher dew point temperatures and wetting rains, therefore, reducing fire activity. Prevailing southwest wind over the Southwestern U.S. typically shifts south and southeast by mid July. Under favorable conditions, an upper-air ridge over the Four Corners region moves deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf of California to higher latitudes and may affect the Intermountain region. Instability increases when this advection takes place, thus enhancing thunderstorm development. Usually dry thunderstorms (<.05 inch) occur as the monsoonal moisture pushes northward but eventually the atmosphere moistens, causing significant precipitation to be observed. The fire seasons of 1999 and 2001 are two recent examples of this monsoonal trajectory.
Subtropical (30-35 degrees latitude off the California coast) By mid July, an upper-air ridge centers over the Four Corners region setting up a subtropical flow. This upper-air, southwest flow moves maritime tropical (mT) air northward over the cool California current. This trajectory is associated with the subtropical jet stream and normally tracks first across central/northern California, then over the Great Basin. The hot and very dry air mass (continental tropical or cT) over the Great Basin modifies this subtropical air mass by drying out the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, embedded upper-air
disturbances within this flow enhance instability, increasing the potential for elevated dry lightning. The Northern Rockies 2000 and 2003 fire seasons are good examples of the effects of this flow delivering numerous dry lightning episodes.
Mid-Latitude (35-50 degrees latitude off the Northwest coast and Gulf of Alaska) The mid-latitude air masses dominate the weather over the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain region most of the year. However, during the typical fire season, influence from this trajectory decreases as the subtropical air mass becomes dominant, especially in July and August. In recent years, especially in 1997 and 2002, the mid-latitude flow persisted during the height of the fire season. Cooler temperatures and light precipitation associated with maritime polar (mP) air kept dew points climatologically high (higher relative humidity). This westerly flow may deliver periodic rain events, lessening fire danger. Wet thunderstorms may be observed but they are mainly isolated with few lightning strikes.
Anomalous Weather Systems
During the fire season, prevailing winds and atmospheric instability are predictable, especially when there is little or no change in the synoptic situation. However, infrequent air mass intrusions from Canada do occur and cause significant changes to the fire environment. Pre-event weather observations, along with current Weather Service forecasts, can assist fire managers in making immediate tactical changes and plan strategies for future fire operations.
Case Study A recent weather event took place on August 12, 2005, which was an atypical weather occurrence in the height of the fire season. This study reflects a “classic” Canadian air mass intrusion over western Montana that significantly affected the Mission Fire Plan area.
Synoptic Situation An upper-air ridge builds along the west coast in response to a deep, low- pressure system over the southern Gulf of Alaska. As this building process continues, a northerly flow develops over western Canada displacing continental polar (cP) air mass over northern Alberta. During this time of the year, cold air normally tracks along the east slopes of the western Canadian Rockies. As a result, a surface cold-core high-pressure area descends southward and frontalgenesis occurs. Additionally, low pressure remains dominant over the inland Northwest. The surface chart below illustrates the relative position of the pressure systems approximately 18 hours before frontal passage over the Mission area. This front may be referred to as a “back door cold front”. It is important to note the gradient winds will have an easterly component. Very dry and warm conditions were observed for several days previous to this event.
UW
The upper-air chart (18,000 ft msl) below was observed at the same time as the surface chart. Note the cold pool of air over Alberta and the northerly wind component along the Canadian Rockies. Westerly flow continues to transport dry air over the Mission Region.
UW
Event Indicators
High Elevation Sites (7000-8000 feet msl) These sites were the first to detect the impending change. Approximately fifteen hours before frontal passage, an easterly component was established with sustained winds of 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph. Additionally, the relative humidity started to increase. After frontal passage, easterly winds continued with sustained speeds ranging from 10- 20 mph, gusting to 20-30 mph. Spotted Bear Lookout data was used in this study.
Buffer zone (lower elevations 2950-3050 feet msl) Ronan Raws, Ninepipe Dam, and St. Ignatius observation sites were used in this study. Lower elevations responded approximately 1 to 3 hours after high elevation winds were established except the extreme southern Mission Valley (St. Ignatius) where winds increased approximately 3 hours before frontal passage. Ninepipe Dam was the first to respond with north winds ranging from 10-20 mph sustained, gusting to 20-30 mph. Ronan Raws was the next to detect an increase with north to northeast winds of 3-7 mph and gusts of 7-10 mph. North to northwest winds increased at all three sites after passage, to sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Relative humidity gradually increased from the onset but decreased when frontal passage occurred. This was due to significant down slope wind (adiabatic warming) and atmospheric mixing.
Appropriate Response area (south)
A high elevation site (Pistol Creek) revealed an east to southeast wind; sustained 10 mph with gusts of 10-15 mph approximately 12 hours before frontal passage. After passage, winds shifted north to northwest. However, once the colder air arrived, winds reoriented east to northeast 10-15 mph with gusts 15-22 mph. Relative humidity increased throughout the observation period.
The only site at a lower elevation was Arlee (3100 feet msl). East-southeast winds, 1-4 mph with gusts of 2-8 mph were observed approximately 14 hours before frontal passage. A significant shift took place when passage occurred. Winds were from the northwest at 2-6 mph with gusts of 8-16 mph, but increased during the early afternoon to northwest at 7-11 mph with gusts of 17-23 mph. No relative humidity data was collected at this site. Lack of data within the Jocko primitive area precluded any correlation between Seeley Lake and the Jocko Valley. Additional observations and study is needed to determine guidelines for this area of the plan.
The surface chart below shows the tight pressure gradient across the Mission area. This indicates a significant increase in easterly wind across the region. High pressure has built into northern Montana while low pressure has slipped southward.
UW
The upper-air chart indicates a deeper trof over the northern intermountain region. Colder air accompanies this trof as winds shift from the northwest. This flow would support cooler temperatures for a day or two along with drying conditions.
UW
Summary
This case study is an excellent example of anomalous weather that occasionally occurs during the fire season. However, this synoptic situation occurs more frequently during the transition seasons (spring and fall) and can impact prescribed fire operations and complicate smoke management practices. Depending on air mass characteristics, these events can deliver significant precipitation in short duration or only isolated shower activity with mostly dry conditions persisting. Prevailing winds over the Mission region are generally west but favor a northerly component in the winter and southerly component in the summer. Therefore, orographics plays a major part in the modification of air mass characteristics and reorientation of wind flow and acceleration. Easterly winds pose an important threat to firefighter safety and project management. Winds can be quite strong especially over peaks and upper slope areas. More importantly, this component can result in down slope winds that can dry out and warm the air as it descends.
Credits
Graphical illustrations presented in this assessment were produce by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Department of Commerce and the Department of Atmospheric Sciences under the University of Washington
APPENDIX G: PHOTOGRAPH LOG
Photo 1 Mollman Fire, Mission Mountains Wilderness August and September or 2003. Cover
Photo 2 Passive crowning at night on the Seepay 2 Fire, August 2005, in the Seepay drainage. Page
Photo 3 Landscape of the Rattlesnake Range, western front in The Jocko Valley looking east. Fancy Dancer right center. Page
Photo 4 Mission Mountains landscape looking east in the Mission Valley. West McDonald is right of center. Page
Photo 5 Helicopter working the west flank of the Seepay 2 Fire. Page
Photo 6 Intense surface fire on the Boles Meadow Fire, August 2003, on Lolo National Forest land. Day of ignition. Page
Photo 7 Historical photograph of the Mission Mountains foothills showing old fire scars. Location behind St. Ignatius. Page
Photo 8 Landscape of the Mission Mountains looking east from the Mission Valley. Page
Photo 9 Aerial picture of the beginning of the Mineral Primm fire complex on Plum Creek industrial lands. Page
Photo 10 Panorama landscape of the Rattlesnake Range, Jocko Valley. Page
Photo 11 Lower Seepay during the Seepay2 Fire during CY 2005. Page
Photo 12 A wisp of smoke can be seen in the center of this picture. Somewhere in the Big Knife area in Jocko Valley, the landscape is showing change with the red tops of dead trees and gray skeletons of dead trees from the past.