Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 44068-012 December 2016
FINAL REPORT RDTA-8119 REG: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia (Co-financed by the Asian Clean Energy Fund under the Clean Energy Financing Partnership Facility and the Climate Change Fund)
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned. ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents
Prepared by: CARDNO Emerging Markets (UK) Ltd Oxford Road Thame OX9 2AH England United Kingdom
1 | P a g e ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report was prepared by Cardno UK Emerging Markets for the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The key authors of the report were: Peter Mackay (Team Leader/Climate Adaptation Specialist); Philip Buckle (Climate Change and DRR Specialist); Alexander Mueller (Economic Specialist); Timothy Hannan (Water Sector Specialist); and Dr. Joanta Green (Energy Sector Specialist). The International Team was supported by a team of National Consultants from Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The International Team is grateful for contributions and support from: Mars Amanaliyev (National Team Leader), Larisa Bazhanova (Water Resource Specialist and Rysbek Satylkanov (Energy Resource Specialist) from Kyrgyzstan; Bahrom Mamadaliev (National Team Leader) and Zarina Rassoeva (Project Coordination) from Tajikistan; and Professor Ghulam Nasere (National Team Leader), Abdullelah Rasooli (Energy Specialist) and Sediq Reshteen (Water Resource Specialist) from Afghanistan. We would also like to acknowledge the valuable contributions of the many people and organizations. In particular, we would like to thank all the participants of the Country Working Groups for their contributions and active support - without which this report would not have been possible. Indispensable interpretation, translation and organizational services were provided by Zarina Rassoeva. Lastly, we would like to thank Dr. Chris Hope from the University of Cambridge for his valuable advice, training and guidance on the PAGE09 modelling and interpretation of the results.
2 | P a g e ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development Bank AF Adaptation Fund AfDB African Development Bank AFN Afghan Afghani (October 2016: USD 1 = AFN65.91) AFOLU Agriculture, forestry, and land use AR4 Fourth Assessment Report AR5 Fifth Assessment Report ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations AKT Sub-region Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan BAU Business as Usual ºC Degree Celsius CAPS Central Asia Power System CASA-1000 Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission & Trade Project CCRA Climate change risk assessment CDM Clean Development Mechanism CH4 Methane CHPP Combined Heat & Power Plants CIFs Climate Investment Funds CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CMIP5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 CO2 Carbon Dioxide CO2e Carbon Dioxide equivalent COP21 21st Conference of Parties of UNFCCC (December 2015) CPI Climate Policy Initiative CRI Global Climate Change Risk Index CSOs Civil society organizations CTF Clean Technology Fund CWA Central West Asia DABS Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat DC Direct current DFI’s Development Finance Institutions DMC Developing member country DPSP Dedicated Private Sector Programs DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECA Europe & Central Asia EEU Eurasian Economic Union EM-DAT The International Disaster Database EoI Expression of Interest EIB European Investment Bank FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FAR IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIP Forest Investment Program FSF Flexible Support Funding GCF The Green Climate Fund GCMs General circulation models GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas
3 | P a g e GNI Gross National Income GW Giga watt (billion watt) GWh Giga watt hour ha Hectare HEADS Highly Effective Adaptation and Development Strategies HPP Hydropower Plant IADB Inter-American Development Bank IAMs Integrated Impact Assessment Models IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ICWC Interstate Commission for Water Coordination IMF International Monetary Fund INC Initial National Communication INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management KGS Kyrgyzstan som (October 2016: USD 1 = KGS68.10) kV Kilo volt kWh Kilo watt hour LDCs Least Developed Countries LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund LEDS Low Emission Development Strategies LUFC Land use and forest change MAC Marginal abatement cost masl Meters above sea level MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis MDB Multilateral Development Banks MENAP Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan MIT Mitigation scenario Mt Mega ton (million ton) MW Megawatt (million watt) MWh Megawatt hour N20 Nitrous Oxide NAP National Adaptation Plan NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index NEPS North East Power System NGO Non-Governmental Organization NPV Net Present Value ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PAGE09 Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect version 9 PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PPP Purchasing Power Parity PRC People’s Republic of China QUELRO Quantified Emissions Limitation & Reduction Objective RCM Regional Climate Model RDTA Research and Development Technical Assistance RUB Russian ruble (October 2016: USD 1 = RUB 62.29) SA South Asian region SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SCF Strategic Climate Fund
4 | P a g e SEPS South East Power System SF6 Hexafluoride SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience SREP Scaling up Renewable Energy Program SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios TA Technical Assistance TJS Tajik somoni (October 2016: USD 1 = TJS 7.72) TWh Tera Watt hour (trillion-watt hour) UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environmental Program UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction U.S. United States of America USAID United States Agency for International Development USD Unites States Dollar WBG World Bank Group WCDRR World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction WDI World Development Indicators
5 | P a g e KEY TERMS
Adaptation Adaptation is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as “The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.”1 Adaptation deficit The difference between the existing systems in place and those required to reduce the impact of climate change.2 Adaptive capacity Defined by the IPCC as “The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences.” 3 This capacity is demonstrated by the resources and strengths a country is able to put into adaptation. In some cases, these capacities reflect sustainable adaptation solutions. In other cases, they reflect the ability of a country to put newer, more sustainable adaptations into place to address the needs of a particular sector. Adaptation costs The cost of adapting to the impacts of climate change, including adaptation measures and transition costs.4 Adaptation gap The adaptation gap can be defined generically as the difference between the level of adaptation actually implemented and a societally set target or goal, reflecting nationally determined needs related to climate change impacts, as well as resource limitations and competing priorities. Adaptation finance The adaptation finance gap can then be defined and measured gap as the difference between the costs of meeting a given adaptation target and the amount of finance available to do so. Assessment of the adaptation finance gap is facilitated by the availability of a common monetary metric. However, it must be noted that finance is a means rather than an end – availability of funds does not guarantee that such funds are used efficiently and effectively to increase climate resilience and reduce vulnerability. Adaptation options The range of actions and steps which can be taken to adapt to climate change: can be split into social, institutional and structural actions.
1 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 2 ibid 3 ibid 4 ibid
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Aggregate impacts The combined impact of climate change across all regions and/or sectors. Aggregated data may include the total economic cost or the number of people affected and is generally divided by time, place, region or sector. Autonomous Adaptation which is not a result of an intentional response to adaptation climate change, but is likely to be triggered by changes in human systems or ecological responses within natural systems. Central Asia Central Asia is defined as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”5 A distinction is therefore made between climate change which can be attributed to human activity and climate variability which results from human or natural systems. Climate Change Evaluation of the impact of climate change on human or natural Impact Assessment systems in both monetary or non-monetary terms. 6 Climate Change According to the IPCC, a climate projection is the “simulated Projection response of the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, generally derived using climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions by their dependence on the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used, which is in turn based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realized.”7 Climate Change Socioeconomic scenarios used by analysts to make projections
5 UN General Assembly, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), resolution / adopted by the General Assembly, 20 January 1994, A/RES/48/189, Article 1 6 IPCC, 2007, Appendix I: Glossary, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp 104 7 ibid
7 | P a g e Scenario of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.8 Climate Finance Climate finance refers to public and private mechanisms established to help fund countries in their efforts to reduce emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and reducing vulnerability of, and maintaining and increasing the resilience of, human and ecological systems to negative climate change impacts.9 Climate-proofing Actions taken in the design of a project or program to reduce its vulnerability to climate-related risks, including climate change. Does not imply complete elimination of risks. Climate-resilient Defined by the IPCC as an “iterative processes for managing pathways change within complex systems in order to reduce disruptions and enhance opportunities associated with climate change.”10 Climatic Vulnerability Climate change vulnerability is defined by the IPCC as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.”11 Current climate The level of climate variability encountered under present-day variability conditions, as opposed to under future conditions. Direct costs The costs that are incurred as the direct economic outcome of a specific climate event or facet of change. Direct costs can be measured as by standard methods of national income accounting, including lost GDP.
8 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 9 For a more detailed definition of Climate Finance see UNFCCC (2014) Standing Committee on Finance: Biennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows Report, p 15 < http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/standing_committee/application/pdf/2014_bien nial_assessment_and_overview_of_climate_finance_flows_report_web.pdf> 10 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 11 ibid
8 | P a g e Exposure The climate stress faced by the country. Exposure is mostly represented by biophysical impacts of climate change upon various sectors, and most of the exposure measures are independent of socioeconomic context. Hazard A hazard can be defined as the “potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.”12 In this report, the term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or trends or their physical impacts.13 Impacts The term impact is used within this report to refer the effect of (consequences, climatic change on natural and human systems. Impacts can outcomes) be demonstrated physically in the form of sea level rise, drought, and floods. Subsequent impacts can then be seen on livelihoods, economies, societies and cultures.14 Impact costs The direct costs associated with the impacts of climate change (e.g., the reduction in agricultural production due to heat stress higher mean temperatures and changes in seasonality). Incremental A series of relatively small actions and adjustments aimed at Adaptation continuing to meet the existing goals and expectations of the community in the face of the impacts of climate change.15 Indirect costs Indirect costs are costs that are not directly accountable to a cost object (such as a particular project, facility, function or product). Indirect costs are the costs that are incurred as secondary outcomes of the direct costs of a specific event or facet of climate. Loss & Damage Despite no official definition of ‘Loss and Damage’ by the UNFCCC, the term is widely agreed to refer to the ‘residual impacts’ of climate change. The term therefore refers to climate change impacts which cannot (or will not) be avoided by
12 ibid 13 ibid 14 ibid 15 ibid
9 | P a g e mitigation and adaptation. The key traits of such residual impacts, as identified within scientific literature, are that it is; “attributable to human-caused climate change, irreversible, unavoidable and intolerable”.16 Mitigation (of climate Mitigation is defined by the IPCC as a “human intervention to change) reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs).”17
Mitigation scenario The description of a potential future which describes the implementation of mitigation measures and policies.18. Paris Agreement The term widely used to refer to the international climate agreement countries have committed to creating before the end of the talks being held in Paris in November and December of 2015 during COP21.19 Projection A projection is an estimated future scenario based on models or studies of present trends. Projections, unlike predictions, are based upon assumptions which may or may not be realized, such as technological developments or socio-economic conditions.20. Readiness Readiness for climate finance is defined as the capacities of countries to plan for, access, deliver, and monitor and report on
16 Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016 ‘Defining loss and damage: The science and politics around one of the most contested issues within the UNFCCC.’ < https://www.sei- international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2016-Loss-and-damage-4-traits.pdf> 17 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 18 ibid 19 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement (adopted 12 December 2015, entered into force 4th November 2016) FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 20 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
10 | P a g e climate finance, both international and domestic, in ways that are catalytic and fully integrated with national development priorities and achievement of the MDGs.21 Resilience Resilence is defined by the IPCC as”the capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.”22 Risk The probability or likelihood of negative events or consequences resulting from internal or external vulnerabilities, which may have the potential for being avoided by preemptive action. Sensitivity The extent to which a country or community is responsive to climate exposure. The factors increasing sensitivity include dependency upon a sector that is exposed to climate risks and proportion of the population particularly susceptible to a climate change hazard.23 Transformational Adaptation actions which result in a significant change to Adaptation community goals and expectations, or how they are met, potentially disrupting those communities and their values. Transformational adaptation is generally undertaken when incremental adaptation is no longer sufficient to address the risks.24 Vulnerability The IPCC defines vulnerability as the “propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.” 25 Vulnerability is a function of risk and response capacity. It is a combination of the physical parameter of the hazards and its consequences such as personal injuries, degradation of buildings and infrastructure and functional perturbations. It is also varying depending on non-physical factors such as emergency preparation, education, and recovering capacity.
21 UNDP, 2014 Readiness for Climate Finance: A Framework for Understanding what it means to be ready to use Climate Finance” < http://www.undp.org/content/dam/turkey/docs/Publications/EnvSust/UNDP- Readiness_for_Climate_Finance.pdf> 22 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 23 IPCC (2007): Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 24IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 25 ibid
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12 | P a g e CONTENTS
Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 ABBREVIATIONS 3 KEY TERMS 6 CONTENTS 13 FIGURES 15 TABLES 17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18 I. INTRODUCTION 24 A. Overview 24 B. Background to the Study 24 C. Aim of the Study 25 D. Approach of the Study 25 II. REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 27 A. Introduction 27 B. Regional Economic Outlook 27 C. Country Outlook 31 III. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS & VULNERABILITIES 40 A. Introduction 40 B. Climate Change in the AKT Sub-Region 40 C. Changes in the Regional Climate 40 D. Climate Change in Vulnerability in Central West Asia 42 SOURCE: ND-GAIN INDEX 2014 THE FUTURE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE 51 E. Introduction 52 F. PAGE09 Integrated Impact Assessment Modeling 52 G. Results from the PAGE09 Modeling 56 H. The Economic Costs of Climate Change on the AKT Sub-region 59 I. The Costs of Adaptation in the AKT Sub-region 62 IV. IMPACTS ON KEY SECTORS 64 A. Introduction 64 B. Impacts of Climate Change on Key Sectors in the AKT Sub-region 64 C. Impacts on the Water Sector in the AKT Sub-region 66 D. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the AKT Sub-region 70 E. Impacts on the Energy Sector in the AKT Sub-region 72
13 | P a g e V. FINANCING ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE 75 A. Introduction 75 B. Global Finance Context 75 C. The Global Adaptation Finance Gap 76 D. The Adaptation Finance Gap for the AKT Sub-region 79 E. Country Level Climate Investment in the AKT Region 82 F. Closing the Adaptation Finance Gap 88 VI. ADAPTATION OPTIONS & INVESTMENT PROPOSALS 89 A. Introduction 89 B. Responding to Climate Change 90 C. Pathways for Adaptation & Resilience 91 D. Adaptation Options and Measures for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping 93 E. Project Investment Proposals 103 APPENDIX 1: MCA PROJECT EVALUATION RANKINGS 109 APPENDIX 2: TOP 15 SHORTLISTED PROJECT INVESTMENT PROPOSALS 117 APPENDIX 3: WORKING GROUP TOR 170 APPENDIX 4: CCRA TRAINING PARTICIPANTS 172 REFERENCES 176
14 | P a g e FIGURES
Figure 1. Declining Remittances in the AKT Sub-Regional Country Grouping – Source World Bank (2016) ...... 29 Figure 2. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Kyrgyzstan ...... 31 Figure 3. Kyrgyzstan GDP Growth by Sector ...... 32 Figure 4. Macro Poverty Outlook for Kyrgyzstan (2013 to 2018) ...... 33 Figure 5. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Tajikistan ...... 34 Figure 6. Tajikistan GDP Growth by Sector ...... 35 Figure 7. Macro Poverty Outlook for Tajikistan (2013 to 2018) ...... 36 Figure 8. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Afghanistan...... 37 Figure 9. Afghanistan GDP Growth by Sector ...... 38 Figure 10. Sensitivity Footprints for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan ...... 47 Figure 11. Country Readiness Measures for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (2014) ...... 50 Figure 12. Time series plot of Capacity for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ...... 51 Figure 13. ND-GAIN Time scale plot of Economic Readiness for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (1995 – 2014) ...... 51 Figure 14 Chain of impact and policy analysis in the PAGE09 model...... 53 Figure 15. The trajectories for total greenhouse gas emissions under the two scenarios are shown as a) CO2-equivalent at global level; and b) for CO2-equivalent for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2008 to 2100)...... 56 121. On a per capita basis the GHG emission in the AKT Sub-region will decrease from 3.3 ton at present to 1.25 ton in 2100 in the BAU scenario and to 0.7 in the MIT scenario as illustrated in Figure 16 a). Figure 16 b) shows the GHG emission intensity in terms of kg GHG per USD GDP, showing that in the MIT scenario the intensity decreases faster than in the BAU scenario. Figure 16. a) Per capita GHG Emissions; and b) GHG Emission Intensity for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2008 to 2100) ...... 57 Figure 17. Estimated Annual Temperature Increases (2009 to 2100) for the a) Global; and b) AKT Sub-region ...... 58 Figure 18. a) Impacts of the BAU Scenario; and b) Impacts of the MIT Scenario for AKT Sub- region Country Grouping (2009 to 2100) ...... 59 Figure 19. Incremental Costs of Climate Change Costs (without mitigation) for the AKT Sub- region (2009 to 2100) ...... 60 Figure 20. Incremental Costs (with mitigation) for AKT Sub-region (2009 to 2100) ...... 62 Figure 21. Adaptation Costs for AKT Sub-region under the BAU Scenario (2009 to 2100) ...... 63 Figure 22. Indicative adaptation requirements per AKT country and sector by 2050 ...... 63 Figure 23. Impact Chain: The interactions between Climate Change Effects and the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water and Energy Sectors in the AKT Sub-region ...... 65
15 | P a g e Figure 24.Global estimates of the costs of adaptation up to 2050 ...... 77 Figure 25. The Gap between Estimated Adaptation Needs and Available Public Finance (2013- 2050, Low Estimate) ...... 78 Figure 26. Climate Investment Finance for Adaptation in the AKT Sub-region (2013-2014) ...... 80 Figure 27. The Estimated Adaptation Finance Investment Gap for the AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2014-2050, MIT Scenario) ...... 80 Figure 28. Tajikistan Investment Flows 2014 ...... 83 Figure 29. Kyrgyzstan Investment Flows 2014 ...... 84 Figure 30. Afghanistan Investment Flows 2014 ...... 86 Figure 31. Potential Pathways for Adaptation and Resilience Investment in the AKT Sub-region ...... 92
16 | P a g e TABLES
Table 1. Growth rate of GDP (% per year) in the AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping ...... 28 Table 2. Growth rate of per capita GDP (% per year) AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping ...... 29 Table 3. Climate Risk Index for the AKT Sub-Regional Countries (1994–2014) ...... 43 Table 4. World Development Indicators (WDI 2015) used to Analyze Climate Sensitivity ...... 45 Table 5. Sensitivity Ranking for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan (2014) ...... 46 Table 6. ND-Gain Index for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for 2014...... 49 Table 7. PAGE09 Scientific, Impacts, Abatement Costs, and Adaptation Parameters ...... 54 Table 8. Aral Sea Basin Distribution by Country ...... 66 Table 9. Aral Sea Basin, Mean Annual Runoff by Country (km2) ...... 67 Table 10. Aral Sea Basin, Area under Irrigation ...... 69 Table 11. Rangeland/Livestock Production Systems in the AKT-Sub-region ...... 71 Table 12. Checklist of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for the AKT Sub- Regional Countries ...... 81 Table 13. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Tajikistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 83 Table 14. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Tajikistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 84 Table 15. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Kyrgyzstan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 85 Table 16. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Kyrgyzstan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 85 Table 17. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Afghanistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 87 Table 18. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Afghanistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices) ...... 87 Table 19. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Water Sector in the AKT Sub-region ...... 94 Table 20. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Agriculture Sector in the AKT Sub-region ...... 98 Table 21. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Energy Sector in the AKT Sub-region ...... 101 Table 22. MCA Evaluation Criteria ...... 105 Table 23. Project Investment Proposal Shortlist (based on analysis all of the Essential Criteria) ...... 107
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
About this Study This study has been undertaken under RDTA8119-REG: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia. This work was undertaken by Cardno Emerging Markets (UK) for the Asian Development Bank. The study focuses on evaluating the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in the most vulnerable countries in Central and West Asia, these being Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan (and herein after referred to collectively as the AKT Sub- region group of countries). The study also identifies adaptation opportunities and project investment proposals for the target countries to mitigate the impacts of climate change, build climate resilience, promote low-carbon development, and to support country ‘readiness’ for leveraging public and private sector finance to address prioritized adaptation (and mitigation) investment needs. Climate Change According to the 1998 IPCC report on the regional impacts of climate Observations & change, ‘Central Asia’ (including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and ‘South Projections Asia’ (including Afghanistan) are two of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world, primarily due to widespread poverty and very low adaptation capabilities. 26 Current evidence suggests that predicted warmer temperatures, accelerated glacial melt, reduced winter snow cover and associated changes in river flows, and more frequent and intense drought and floods threaten the stable water supply for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption in the arid and semiarid regions of Central Asia and South Asia. More frequent droughts, catastrophic flooding from glacial lake outbursts, and landslides caused by destabilization of mountain slopes will lead to a progressive increase in economic losses and risk to the population, and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. The observed climate trends for the AKT Sub-region include an increase in annual and seasonal air temperature by between 1.2 to 2.1°C (which significantly greater than the global increase on 0.47°C) and a slight decrease over the course of the century. Annual mean temperature is projected to rise in the AKT Sub-region by between 2 and 5°C by the end of the century relative to that of the 1981-2000 period.27 Whilst the trends in precipitation are less clear, it is projected that there will be a slight decrease in precipitation in the sub-region over the course of the century and a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the future. Climate Change All three countries of the AKT Sub-region are highly vulnerable to the Vulnerability predicted effects of climate change, especially higher temperatures, changes in seasonality and extreme events. For this study we used
26 IPCC (1997) The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, R.T .Watson, M.C.Zinyowera, R.H.Moss (Eds) 27 ibid
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three internationally recognized vulnerability indexes to examine climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, these being: i) the Global Climate Change Risk Index for analyzing exposure; ii) the World Development Indicators for assessing socio-economic sensitivity; and iii) the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ND-GAIN for analyzing adaptive capacity and country readiness. According to the Climate Risk Index for 2016, Afghanistan is the 2nd most vulnerable country worldwide in terms of exposure to extreme climate events – and 12th most vulnerable over the period 1995 to 2014. Tajikistan ranks as the 59th most vulnerable country and Kyrgyzstan is the 119th most vulnerable country for 2014.28 Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan clearly suffer from high exposure to economic drivers of climate vulnerability that make them very sensitive to the impacts of climate change. Tajikistan in particular stands out as not only having a high level of exposure but also a low level of economic capacity to respond to climate change. In terms of socio-economic sensitivity to climate change, our analysis found that the sensitivity ratings for Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are uniformly high across all WDI indices. Afghanistan was assessed as being extremely sensitive to climate change in the social development and cross-sector resource development sub-indices – and Tajikistanis extremely sensitive in the cross sector area. Kyrgyzstan was found to be less sensitive to the other two countries due to higher levels of economic, social and water resource development. For this study we used the ND-Gain Index to analyze the ‘adaptive capacity’ and ‘readiness to adapt’ of each of our target countries, with the explicit aim of furthering investment in adaptation. Readiness is defined by the ND-GAIN Index as the measure of “a country’s ability to leverage (or absorb) investments and convert them to adaptation actions.” 29 ND-Gain Index found that Afghanistan is the 17th most vulnerable country and the 11th least ready country in the world – indicating that it has both a great need for investment in adaptation and at the same time a very low level of readiness to be able to absorb and leverage funding for adaptation action. Tajikistan is considered to be the 78th most vulnerable country and the 52nd least ready country. Kyrgyzstan exhibits both a higher adaptive capacity and economic, social and governance readiness than does either Tajikistan or Afghanistan indicating a more conducive environment for doing business and attracting investment for climate adaptation Impacts on Key The study confirms that climate change is already having a deleterious Sectors impact on key sectors in the region, and especially in the water, agriculture and energy sectors. Into the future it is highly likely that climate change further exacerbates existing water shortages in many
28 Germanwatch and Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (2016): Global Climate Risk Index: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2014 and 1995 to 2014. Sönke Kreft, David Eckstein, Lukas Dorsch & Livia Fischer. 29 ND-GAIN Index
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parts of the region, and this in turn may lead to declines in agricultural production, enhance land degradation, and increase the risk of climate induced loss and damage from natural disasters. Estimating the There are a number of integrated impact assessment models (IAMs) Future Cost of available to model the economic costs of climate change. For this study Climate Change we have used version 9 of the Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect (PAGE09) model to analyze long-term economic impacts of climate change (expressed as a percentage of projected GDP) and estimate the magnitude of funding required in the AKT Sub-region to respond to climate change. The study ran 100,000 simulations of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to assess the impacts and costs of climate change in the region. It included the application of global climate projections, GDP and population projections in order to cost adaptation. The GHG emissions for the countries of the AKT Sub-region were taken from the respective National Communications and from the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions as prepared in 2015 for COP21 in Paris. Forecasts for GDP growth were taken from the IMF, population growth forecasts from the US Census Department. As sea-level rise is not relevant for land locked countries of the AKT Sub-region, sea level impacts were set to zero for this region. At the Global level, PAGE09 projects that under the BAU scenario the mean global temperature will rise 3.8oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (with a 90% confidence interval of between 2.4 and 5.9oC – and a 4.6oC rise on average by 2100 (with average land temperature rising to around 5.8oC). For the AKT Sub-region, the average temperature rise for the BAU scenario is projected to rise to 2.4oC by 2050. By 2100, countries in the AKT Sub-region are expected to face around 4.8oC rise - a level higher than the global average increase. Under the MIT scenario average temperatures are projected to increases to 2.2oC degrees by 2100, with a 90% confidence interval of 1.4-3.4 degrees. Overall mean temperature would increase by 2.4oC, indicating that the modeled temperature increase both in the BAU and MIT scenarios is slightly higher for the AKT Sub-region than those expected to be experienced globally. The PAGE09 modeling estimates the annual global impacts from climate change over time for the high BAU and low MIT climate change emission scenarios out to 2100 for the AKT Sub-region Country Grouping, where the impacts are measured in USD billions. For the BAU scenario the modeling suggests that the economic costs of climate change under the BAU scenario for the AKT Sub-region are expected to increase from an average value of USD 200 million per year in 2020 to an average value of USD 2.5 billion per year by 2050 (or 1.3% of annual GDP), and over USD 48 billion per year (10% of the region’s annual GDP) by 2100, with a 5% chance that the annual global impacts will exceed USD 100 billion by 2100 (or over 20% of the region’s annual GDP). In the MIT scenario, relatively low temperature rise combined with the introduction of adaptation, is estimated to keep the mean impact of
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climate change below USD 1 trillion until 2050. There is however a 5% chance that annual global impacts will exceed USD 20 trillion (or 4.7% of its annual GDP equivalent) by 2100. With no adaptation, global impacts will reach USD 7 trillion (1.5% GDP) in 2100.30 The results from the PAGE09 modeling suggests that the climate impacts in the AKT Sub-region will increase over time and will be prohibitively high in the long term in case no mitigation is applied. The central average value for the incremental cost of climate change under the BAU scenario is projected to be USD 1.4 billion per year in 2050, rising sharply to over to over USD 40 billion by 2100. For the period till 2050 the mean of these costs is negative (so there is no immediate net benefit from pursuing the MIT scenario) however, thereafter the mean costs rise exponentially and could be far higher than the average predicted. There is a small but not impossible chance of incremental costs rising above USD 120 billion per year by 2100. In spite of global efforts to transition to non-fossil fuel energy, predictions under the MIT scenario estimate the economic damage to thje AKT Sub- region between 1.0% and 4.7% of annual GDP. As a result, the cost of climate change would likely offset economic growth from 2100 onwards. Especially considering the current socio-economic challenges facing the countries in the region. In the low emissions scenario, the mean regional impact stays below USD 25 million per year costs, as global mean temperatures stay generally below the 2oC target level agreed to under the Paris Agreement 2015. Based on the PAGE09 modeling, it is estimated that the AKT Sub-region will require funding of around USD 547 million per year from now until 2050 (i.e. approximately 1.1% of GDP per annum). The cost could rise to up USD 850 million per year (approximately 1.7% of GDP representing the upper range a 90% probability range) accounting for climate uncertainties. Over the longer term, the total economic costs associated with climate change impacts are likely to increase in all countries in the AKT Sub- region. If no action is taken to adapt to and mitigate global climate change impacts, the average total economic losses are projected to be around 10%. However, if the world manages to stabilize carbon dioxide concentration below 450ppm, the investment requirement could drop, along with climate variability and uncertainty about adaptation needs. Adaptation cost under the MIT scenario (i.e., adapting to 2.5 degrees’ Celsius temperature rise) by 2100 could be expected to be as low as USD 244 million or 0.5% of GDP per annum during the same period. Financial Flows This study also analyzed the financial flows and investment needs for Analysis climate adaptation finance in the AKT Sub-region. The study found that the annual climate change adaptation financing requirements for AKT Sub-region being around USD 547 million by 2050 (with a 90% probability range of USD 300-846 million). However, the multilateral and bilateral financial flows for climate change adaptation for the 2013 – 2014 period was slightly over USD 250 million – representing a shortfall
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in investment funding of around USD 300 million annually when compared to the PAGE09 estimate for 2050. To close the adaptation finance gap for the AKT Sub-region, national governments have to attract between 200 and 300% additional funding each above current levels. Investing in To achieve this, national governments and all other stakeholders need to Adaptation better understand the sources of this financing, in other words, not only which funding sources exist but also how these financial resources can be accessed. The Paris Agreement provides a continuation of financial commitment from developed countries to ‘provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation.’31 Clearly this offers the most vulnerable countries such as Afghanistan and Tajikistan significant opportunities to secure adequate funding to respond and adapt to the impacts of climate change into the future. In response to this adaptation deficit, this study outlines an array of opportunities and measures that are available and appropriate for addressing impacts of climate change. They include a wide range of actions that can be categorized as policy, structural, institutional, or social, and include: removing the risk source; reducing the likelihood or consequence of the risk; avoiding the risk by deciding not to start or continue with the activity that gives rise to the risk; retain and/or accommodate the risk where it is unavoidable by accepting some level of loss; or off-setting the risk against gains or benefits in some other area (for example through alternative livelihoods of higher levels of production efficiency). Whilst the primary focus of this study is on ‘adapting’ to the actual or expected climate and its effects, it is also recognized that in seeking to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities it is also necessary to build resilience of both natural and human systems. Project Investment In this context the study also identified a number of streamlined Proposals ‘pathways for adaptation and resilience’ suitable for financing under a range of public and private sector financing arrangements and climate funds, that enhance and fast track the mobilization of badly needed finance for adaptation in the region. These pathways include a range of adaptation options and measures specifically designed to respond to the impacts of climate change on the water, agriculture and energy sectors for the AKT Sub-region. Designing, financing and implementing adaptation projects to combat the impacts of climate change in the AKT region is now essential for maintaining economic development. With the assistance of ‘National Working Groups’ the study identified over 80 ‘project investment proposals’, of which 15 proposals were shortlisted for further consideration by the ADB for financing through its climate adaptation funding mechanisms. Of the 86 project investment proposals: 29 were
31 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement (adopted 12 December 2015, entered into force 4th November 2016) FCCC/CP/2015/L.9
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from Kyrgyzstan, 44 from Tajikistan and 13 from Afghanistan. Overall, 20 project proposals were received from the water sector, 33 from the agriculture sector, and 20 from the energy sector and 13 were institutional projects, with some of these projects being cross-sectoral in nature.
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I. INTRODUCTION
A. Overview 1. This Final Report provides an overview of the findings from an assessment of the potential economic costs of impacts and adaptation to climate change for the water and energy sectors, for three countries in Central and West Asia, these being Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. For the purposes of this report we call this grouping of countries the ‘AKT Sub-region’. 2. The report is organized into 7 sections following this Introduction (Section I): • Section II: provides an overview of socio-economic context and outlook for the AKT Sub-region’; • Sections III: analyses effects of climate change in AKT Sub-region in terms of vulnerabilities, risks and impacts; • Section IV: provides an analysis of the potential future costs of climate change in the AKT Sub-region; • Section V: provides a summary of the key findings from the analysis of the impacts of climate change on Key Sectors for the AKT Sub-region; • Section VI: analyses the global and regional financial flows and investment needs for climate adaptation in the AKT Sub-region; and. • Section VII: provides an oversight of adaptation options and measures that may be considered as suitable for future investment, and outlines a number of ‘pathways for adaptation and resilience’ suitable for financing under a range of public and private sector financing arrangement and climate funds.
B. Background to the Study 3. Preliminary evidence indicates that countries in the AKT Sub-regional countries are already being adversely affected by climate change. Warmer temperatures, accelerated glacial melt, reduced winter snow-cover and associated changes in river flows, and more frequent and intense drought and floods threaten the stable water supply for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption - one of the major concerns in the arid and semiarid region of Central and West Asia. More frequent droughts, catastrophic flooding from glacial lake outbursts, and landslides caused by destabilization of mountain slopes will lead to a progressive increase in economic losses and risk to the population, and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. 4. These adverse effects, which will be compounded by projected population growth in the 21st century, will exacerbate underlying national socioeconomic and environmental constraints such as deteriorating infrastructure, land degradation, and limited institutional capacity. 5. Key river basins, such as the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Indus, are important to the economies of several countries and to the political stability of the region, as they supply water to vast expanses of agricultural land and generate most of domestic electricity in the form of hydropower. 6. The ongoing glacial melt and reduction of snow melt are expected to exacerbate trans- boundary water and energy tensions in the broader Central Asian region, i.e., the clash between summer irrigation needs in downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan)
24 | P a g e and winter energy needs in upstream countries (Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan).
C. Aim of the Study 7. The RDTA 8119: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia (TA) seeks to address the lack of robust evidence on the options and costs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) and reduce the negative effects of climate change (adaptation) in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 8. The aim of this study is to ‘assess the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in the most vulnerable countries in Central West Asia, i.e., Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan’. This includes: • Identifying priority investments for climate resilience and low-carbon development; and • Supporting country ‘readiness’ for leveraging public and private sector finance to address prioritized adaptation (and mitigation) investment needs. 9. The study focuses on the two most vulnerable sectors in Central and West Asia, these being the water and energy resource sectors. For the countries of Central and West Asia, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan that located in the arid zone, water resources and dependency on them for the agricultural sector, energy sector (and particularly for hydropower generation), as well as risks of natural disasters and public health risk are considered as sectors most vulnerable to climate change.32 10. The water, energy, water and agriculture sectors in CWA are intricately connected. All sources of energy in CWA (including electricity) require water in their production processes: the extraction of raw materials, cooling in thermal processes, in cleaning processes, cultivation of crops for biofuels, and powering turbines. Likewise, energy is of primary importance for water management and agricultural production and economic development.
D. Approach of the Study 11. The study’s approach builds on earlier studies such as the Stern Review 200633 and other regional studies undertaken by ADB for Southern Asia, East Asia and the Asia Pacific, however it differs significantly to reflect the current changes in relation to the Paris COP21 Agreement and the changes in emphasis with regard to adaptation finance and investment opportunities and also in an increasingly better understanding of climate change effects and impacts. 12. As global temperatures climb, so do the costs of adapting to a warmer world. Severe hydro-meteorological events are becoming more frequent, creating major budget pressures for national governments, especially those in the developing world and causing significant loss of lives, livelihoods and amenity. The latest update of the world’s scientific consensus on climate change finds not only that impacts are already being felt on every continent, but also that adaptation investments are dangerously inadequate to effectively manage climate related risks.
32 Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (2013): Policy Brief: Adapting to Climate Change in the most Vulnerable Sectors of Central Asia: Water and Agriculture. Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN). 33 Stern, Nicholas H. et al. (2006): Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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13. The latest report34 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warns that these shortfalls are growing. “Global adaptation cost estimates are substantially greater than current adaptation funding and investment, particularly in developing countries, suggesting a funding gap and a growing adaptation deficit,” the report states35. 14. As the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change 36 pointed out almost a decade ago, there is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity are causing changes to the Earth´s climate. The Review unequivocally concludes that: “the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting.” 37 The Review estimates the cost of inaction as equivalent to between 5 per cent and 20 per cent of global GDP per year, compared to the cost of mitigating the worst impacts of climate change at around 1 per cent of global GDP per year. 15. Globally, there are already clear links between the impacts of climate change and future growth prospects. GDP is expected to change in response to climate change from -0.4 percent38 to +2.3 percent 39 for a 1°C warming40. Under a level of warming equal to 2.5°C the estimates of GDP change vary between -1.5 percent41 and +0.9 percent.42 16. At a regional level, the overall effect of climate change on Gross Domestic Product is expected to be expected to be negative, with losses in GDP ranging from -1.5% in Central Asia (CA) to -3.1% in South Asia (SA) – primarily as a result of the higher dependence of developing economies on agriculture and of their lower economic development status43. 17. In this context this report places much more effort on understanding the importance and role of ‘climate finance’ (both public and private) to help fund countries in their efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. One of the challenges facing developing countries seeking to make progress on the low-emission and climate resilient pathways are the high initial investment costs. Developing countries have far less access to cheap financing than developed countries, which have strong national and private banking and financing institutions.
34 IPCC (2014) Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability 35 ibid 36 36 Stern, Nicholas H. et al. (2006): Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 37 ibid 38 ibid 39 Tol, R.S.J (2002a): Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part 1: Benchmark Estimates, Environmental and Resource Economics, 21, 47-73. 40 Rehdanz, K. and D.J. Maddison (2005): ‘Climate and happiness’, Ecological Economics, 52, (1), 111-125. 41 Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G. Boyer (2000): Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts - London, England.
42 Hope, C.W. (2006): The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern. The Integrated Assessment Journal, 6 (1), 19-56. 43 ADB (2016): Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia’s Potential Growth
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II. REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
A. Introduction 18. This section provides an overview of the regional economic outlook for Central and West Asia, and provides the context for the analysis of the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in the most vulnerable countries in Central and West Asia, i.e., Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. 19. In order to estimate the economic impact of climate change for Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan it is necessary to first understand the ‘regional economic development context’ collectively across all three countries. Traditionally, the Central Asia (CA) region comprises five former Soviet republics: The Republic of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and the Republic of Tajikistan. Afghanistan is considered to be part of South Asia which comprises the territories of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. So, for the purpose of this study we draw on socio- economic studies from Central Asia (CA) and South Asia (SA), to provide develop an economic outlook for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan which we have grouped together collectively as a sub-region country grouping which we refer to as the ‘AKT Sub-region’. 20. The three AKT Sub-regional countries, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are all landlocked countries and their geographic settings are relatively similar and all share similar challenges from the impacts of climate change. In economic terms, they are all relatively small and considered to be developing economies. Nevertheless, all three AKT Sub-regional countries have in common the fact that they are oil importing and heavily dependent on remittances and imports for consumption and agriculture and hydropower generation (to varying degrees) for production and regional development. 21. This section provides a brief overview of the ‘economic conditions (GDP per capita, GDP annual growth and poverty rates) to link climate change impacts to the potential effects as an economic cost on GDP at the AKT Sub-regional country grouping level. This information, along with meteorological data and climate change scenarios is used later in the study to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of social and economic systems in relation to climate change in the AKT region – and of an individual country’s capacity to adaptation to climate change.
B. Regional Economic Outlook 1. Regional Economic Development and Growth Prospects 22. The Asian Development Bank’s ‘Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth’ predicts that “most regions of developing Asia will see growth slow in 2016 before rebounding slightly in 2017.”44 . Table 1 over page provides a summary of the growth rates of GDP for Central Asia, South Asia and the AKT sub-region. 23. It is forecast that the most rapid growth in developing Asia will be in the South Asia (SA) region and is expected to be approximately 6.9% in 2016, growing to 7.3% in 2017 following reforms to India’s financial sector, demonstrating the importance of India to the region.45 Despite the expectation that growth in India will dip marginally to 7.4% in 2016 as a result of declining
44 Ibid 45 ibid
27 | P a g e public and private investment, it is subsequently predicted to increase to 7.8% as investment revives in 2017.46 Table 1. Growth rate of GDP (% per year) in the AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping Growth (projections) in Real GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Afghanistan 7.2 11.9 3.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 3.0 Kyrgyzstan 6.0 -0.1 10.9 4.0 3.5 1.0 2.0 Tajikistan 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.7 6.0 3.8 4.0 AKT Sub-region 6.7 6.4 7.3 4.0 3.7 2.3 3.0 Central Asia 6.8 5.6 6.6 5.3 2.9 2.1 2.8 South Asia 6.3 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.3
Source: Adapted from ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth
24. In Central Asia, growth is forecast to slow down further this year. The external environment for CA has continued to deteriorate since October 2015 from an already challenging position. Oil prices are projected to average around USD 35 a barrel in 2016, USD 16 below the 2015 average. Oil prices have recovered slightly, but the IMF expects that they will remain below USD 60 per barrel till 2020.47
2. The Effect of Declining Remittances on GDP per Capita 25. Expected slow GDP growth in Central Asia (CA) and South Asia tells only part of the story. Big changes in trade and remittances in both regions, but especially in CA will have far reaching consequences in terms of regional growth, GDP and increasing unemployment – and this in turn will have a significant impact on the socio-economic resilience of average households. 26. Table 2 highlights the growth rate of per capita GDP predictions for CA, SA and the AKT Sub-Region. In South Asia, growth rate per capita GDP is forecast to increase marginally from 5.6% in 2015 to 5.7% in 2016 and then decline sharply to 1.0% in 2017. For Central Asia it is expected that GDP growth rates per capita will decline from 1.2% in 2015 to 0.6% in 2016 and then recover slightly in 2017 to 1.2%.48 These trends are reflective of the forecasts for both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, in Afghanistan they are forecasting small improvements in growth rates for GDP per capita from -0.4% in to 2015 through to +1.0% in 2017.49
46 ibid 47 ibid 48 ibid 49 ibid
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Table 2. Growth rate of per capita GDP (% per year) AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping
Growth rate per capita GDP (% per year) Per Capita Sub-Region 2011 2012 2016 2017 GNI 2014 2013 2014 2015 (USD) Afghanistan 5.2 9.7 1.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 1.0 680 Kyrgyzstan 4.8 -1.4 8.7 2.0 -0.5 -0.6 1.0 1,250 Tajikistan 6.9 6.1 3.4 2.8 4.2 2.2 1.8 1,080 AKT Sub-region 5.6 4.8 4.4 1.4 1.1 0.5 1.3 Central Asia 5.2 4.1 5.1 3.8 1.2 0.6 1.2 South Asia 5.0 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.7 1.0
Source: Adapted from ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth
27. At a country level, the World Bank’s World Development Indicators online statistics for 2016 found that GDP per capita has increased by a factor 4 (Afghanistan), 5 (Tajikistan) and 6 (Kyrgyzstan) respectively over the period 2001-14.50 However, the Asian Development Outlook 2016 finds that the economic distress in the Russian Federation led to a 0.6% decline in Growth rate per capita GDP in 2016 from 2015 levels and this could foreseeably continue into the future if the depreciation of the ruble, slowing remittances, and weakened demand for imports continue continues into 2017.51 28. The decline in remittances from Russia help explain the dynamics of real GDP growth in remittance-dependent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to the IMF, the drop in remittances in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has already erased any gains from lower oil prices, and the current account deficit for these countries is expected to reach 11 percent this year. Both these countries are also experiencing a reduction in export revenues as a result of lower commodity prices in general, and of minerals such as gold, copper, and aluminum in particular. Figure 1. Declining Remittances in the AKT Sub-Regional Country Grouping – Source World Bank (2016)
50 World Bank (2015): World Development Indicators (WDI 2015) http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world- development-indicators 51 ADB (2016): Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia’s Potential Growth
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29. Figure 1 demonstrates the drop in remittances for both Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan since 2013.52 Remittances in Afghanistan come mainly from Iran, which is also affected by low oil prices. Significant numbers of labor migrants have returned to Tajikistan as a result of the restrictions placed on migrant workers within the Russian Federation, and wider Eurasian Economic Union. For smaller economies, lower remittances can damage potential growth and lead to vulnerabilities in corporate and bank balance sheets, slow progress in structural reform and fiscal challenges. Such effects can be mitigated by addressing business environment deficiencies and progressing reforms to strengthen macroeconomic stability. In return, strengthened prospects for growth will further poverty reduction and improve “socio-economic resilience to the effects of climate change.”53
52 World Bank, June (2016) Global Economic Prospects: South Asia, Chapter 2.5 < http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/780341463605620584/Global-Economic-Prospects-June-2016-South-Asia- analysis.pdf> pp 141 -165 53 ibid
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C. Country Outlook 1. Economic and Social Development in Kyrgyzstan a. Economic Performance & Prospects
30. In 2015, despite a deteriorating external environment, Kyrgyzstan’s economy remained stable, supported by increased public spending and agricultural output.54Previously, growth had fallen from 4.0% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2015 and remained slow, due to an increase in public investment only partially offsetting private demand.55 As demonstrated in Figure 2, it is expected that growth will reduce to 1.0% in 2016 as a result of the weakening external economic situation. It is anticipated that recovery will begin in 2017, with growth rising to 2.0% due to improvement with the Russian Federation and other trade partners.56 Figure 2. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Kyrgyzstan
Source: Adapted from ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth
31. However, the ADB Development Outlook for 2015 noted that the future growth in Kyrgyzstan will depend heavily on remittances from and trade with the Russian Federation, which is experiencing a marked recession.57
b. The Importance of the Agriculture Sector 32. The agricultural sector in Kyrgyzstan generates about 17 percent of the country’s GDP, about one-third of its employment, and about 12 percent of total exports. Farm incomes are driven by irrigated agriculture (about 1 million hectares) and pasture-based livestock production (about 9 million hectares). 58
54 World Bank (2016): “The Impact of China on Europe and Central Asia” ECA Economic Update Spring 2016 (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0912-5 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO 55 ibid 56 ibid` 57 ADB, (2015): Asian Development Outlook 2015 Update. 58 ADB (2016) RDTA-8119 REG: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia – Adaptation Component, Mid-term report
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The agricultural sector in the Kyrgyz Republic was reformed prior to other Central Asian countries. However, despite land reform having been almost completed by 2002, a highly fragmented system of land ownership, dominated by small farmers still persists today. Figure 3 illustrates the importance of agriculture to the economic growth of Kyrgyzstan, demonstrated by the role the sector played in the recovery between 2016 and 1017, which was largely driven by improvements in both agro-processing and agriculture, as well as and accession to the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015.59 Figure 3. Kyrgyzstan GDP Growth by Sector
Source: National Statistics Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. Htpp://www.stat.kg (2016)
33. Accession to the EEU provided both opportunities and challenges for Kyrgyzstan. While new trading pathways were opened up with other EEU member countries, these were met with stricter requirements such as compliance with EEU veterinary and phyto-sanitary norms. Additional capacity building of farmers and agri-processors on the necessary requirements to meet such norms was also required, as well as education on the positioning of Kyrgystan as a trading partner in the EEU and globally. 60
c. Poverty Status 34. According to figures provided by the World Bank, the poverty rate in the Kyrgyz Republic declined from 35.8% in 2013 to 29.2% in 2014.61 This represents a decline of more than 6 percentage when compared to the poverty rate in 2013 when GDP grew moderately by 3.5 percent. Of the total population of 5.9 million, approximately 1.8 million lived below the poverty line in 2014, defined as 29,825KGS per capita per year.62 Extreme poverty has also decreased by 1.6% since 2013 and is now 1.2% of the population. Overall, it is estimated that 71,000 persons are unable to afford the minimum food basket, estimated at 17,588KGS per capita, per year.63
59 World Bank (2015), Kyrgyz Republic Partnership Program Snapshot, p. 11 < http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/338641444884600755/Kyrgyzrepublic-Snapshot.pdf> 60 Ibid, p. 7 61 ibid 62 ibid 63 ibid
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Figure 4. Macro Poverty Outlook for Kyrgyzstan (2013 to 2018)
Sources: Adapted from World Bank Sustainable Development Goals WDI 2016 data.worldbank.org/wdi. 35. The poverty rate in the Kyrgyz Republic has been heavily impacted by the labor market. From 2013-2014 the labor market was biggest contributor to the reduction in the poverty rate by almost 4 percentage points. The most important driver of improved living standards continues to be both wages and pensions, while non-labor income plays a less significant role. Importantly, profit from selling agricultural products also played a key role in poverty reduction, again demonstrating the importance of the agricultural sector to economic growth and stability.64 36. Rural and urban poverty rates in Kyrgystan began to even out in 2014, as a result of a decline in rural poverty. While the gap had been narrowing in recent years, in 2014 the rural poverty rate dropped by 8.8% to 33% of the rural populous.65 At the same time, urban poverty rates declined by 1.6% to reach 27%.66 Previous rates in 2013 demonstrated a widening of the gap between rural and urban poverty rates, depicting the volatility of the regional-level poverty rates. In addition, the sale of agricultural products can be correlated to the fluctuation in the sale of agricultural products.67 37. Estimates from the World Bank suggest that the rate of poverty reduction will continue to slow in the short term. As previously mentioned, moderate growth in the agricultural sector will result in sluggish rural poverty reduction. However, the continuing recovery of remittances which primarily benefit poor rural households may offset this effect.68 Economic recovery is expected in 2018, as the external environment improves. Poverty reduction is also expected to continue and is estimated to reach 28.6% in 2016, 28.3% in 2017 and 27.9% in 2018.69
64 ibid 65 ibid 66 ibid
67 ibid
68 World Bank (2016): “The Impact of China on Europe and Central Asia” ECA Economic Update Spring 2016 (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0912-5 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO – p.94 69 ibid
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2. Economic and Social Development in Tajikistan a. Economic Performance & Prospects 38. The ADB Development Outlook for 2015 found that Tajikistan’s GDP growth rate slowed from 7.4% in 2013 and 2014 to an estimated 4.2% in 2015 as remittance inflows, which are equivalent to almost half of GDP, fell sharply by 8.3% in US dollar terms. The fall was most pronounced in the fourth quarter and reflected prolonged economic slowdown, lost jobs, and currency depreciation in the Russian Federation, which hosts up to 90% of the 1 million Tajik migrant workers.70 39. According to the ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016, growth in Tajikistan reduced from 6.7% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2015, largely as a result of the recession in the Russian Federation and subsequent drop Tajikistan’s main source of income, the ruble (Figure 5). The weak private investment market, depreciation of the Tajik Somoni, and lower prices for many Tajik exports, as well as a tightening of immigration control in the Russian Federation contributed to the reduction in growth.71 40. In 2015, trade in Tajikistan declined as a result of weak private investment, lower commodity prices, and remittance shortfalls. Overall, as demonstrated in Figure 5, growth decelerated to 6.0% in 2015 and is expected to fall further in 2016 to 3.8% before recovering to 4.0% in 201772. Figure 5. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Tajikistan
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tajikistan AKT Sub-region Central Asia
Source: Adapted from ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth
b. The Importance of the Agriculture Sector 41. With between 21-25% of GDP and 64-70% of employment, the agriculture sector has a major influence on economic performance. In 2015 the agricultural sector made up 21.9 per cent of GDP and approximately 60 per cent of population was engaged in the sector. Lands for agricultural use made up 4.9 million ha (i.e. 34% of the total area of the country). Out of this 0.85 million ha are croplands, and the main agricultural products include grains, cotton and vegetables which are highly sensitive to declining water availability with climate change. Rain- fed agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change, but irrigated agriculture in Tajikistan
70 ADB, (2015): Asian Development Outlook 2015 Update. 71 Footnote 51
34 | P a g e will suffer the compounded effects of climate change on crumbling infrastructure and low capacity to collect adequate resources for operation and maintenance. 42. Most of the agricultural produce (93.3%) is grown on household plots and private farms, which increases the vulnerability of individual households to the socio-economic impacts of climate change, especially under the current circumstances where remittances are declining and undermining household resilience. 43. Currently, it is estimated that some 1.2 Tajik migrant laborers (predominantly male) work in Russia alone73. Around 550,000 people are involved in the agricultural sector, and about 70% of the population directly or indirectly depends on agriculture.74 44. As illustrated in Figure 6, growth in the agriculture sector has been in decline from 7.5% in 2012 to -5% in 2015. The current agricultural production systems are not productive or profitable, are not creating sustainable long term employment opportunities, and indirectly contribute to the migration of able-bodied population as immigrant workers. 45. Reforms in the agriculture sector such as the ‘Agriculture Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020’ may make a difference. This program focuses on among other things, the introduction of a range of climate smart initiatives and policies including: scaling-up appropriate low-cost water conservation technologies, such as: water harvesting (at household and farm level); drip irrigation etc.; promoting energy efficiency to contribute to improving agricultural productivity; introducing alternative (drought-, pest- resilient) crops; enhancing livestock breeding (through introduction of species, resilient to climate variability). The development of extension services will also be necessary to promote sustainable land management, facilitate diversification towards less water-dependent crops, and increase agricultural productivity and building greater resilience to climate change. This will also entail more off-farm livelihood opportunities to reduce the dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture. Figure 6. Tajikistan GDP Growth by Sector
Source: Tajikistan State Statistics Agency (2015)
74 World Bank (2016): “The Impact of China on Europe and Central Asia” ECA Economic Update Spring 2016 (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0912-5 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
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c. Poverty Status 46. Measures to reduce the constraints to agricultural growth as well as the sector’s vulnerability to adverse events can have an impact on economic growth and poverty reduction. The national poverty in Tajikistan rate fell from 34.3% in 2013 to an estimated 30.4% in 2016. Tajikistan’s pace of poverty reduction in the past 15 years has been among the top 10 percent in the world.75 47. The World Bank predicts that the national poverty rate for Tajikistan is projected to drop to 29.3% percent in 2017 and 28.1% in 2018.76 However, Russia’s ongoing recession, the depreciation of the ruble, lower real remittances and limited job creation in the domestic sector is expected to slow the pace of poverty reduction even further77. 48. The registered unemployment rate in Tajikistan is still low at 2.5%, but pressure on the labor market has been growing. Unemployment measured by the number of people officially registered underestimates the actual number of unemployed. For instance, the latest available Labor Force Survey, in 2009, recorded 11.5% unemployment—almost four times larger than the registered rate for the same period. Labor earnings affect employment to a considerable extent. In terms of wage employment by economic activity, a slight decrease of half a percentage point was recorded for agriculture in 2014 compared to a year earlier; it remains the lowest-paid sector. Figure 7. Macro Poverty Outlook for Tajikistan (2013 to 2018)
34.3 32 31.3 30.4 29.3 28.1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Poverty Rate (annual % per year)
Sources: Adapted from World Bank Sustainable Development Goals WDI 2016 data.worldbank.org/wdi.
75 World Bank (2016): Sustainable Development Goals WDI 2016 data.worldbank.org/wdi. 76 World Bank (2016): “The Impact of China on Europe and Central Asia” ECA Economic Update Spring 2016 (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0912-5 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO 77 ibid
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49. Pressure on the labor market is likely to intensify because there is a possibility that the continued Russian recession will cause increasing numbers of labor migrants to return to Tajikistan. The ability of the agriculture and service sectors, the largest employers in the economy, to absorb additional labor will be critical to moderating potential poverty increases.
3. Economic and Social Development in Afghanistan a. Economic Performance & Prospects 50. In 2015, Afghanistan recorded an estimated economic growth rate of 1.5%, a marginal increase from the figure of 1.3% recorded in 2014. Overall growth was largely driven by growth in the industry (1.4%) and services (2.8%) sectors, offsetting the contraction in the agriculture sector (-2%).78 There was a slight recovery in the level of investment after several years of decline, with security challenges continuing to constrain investment.79 51. Economic growth in Afghanistan is expected to increase slightly to 2.0% in 2016, rising to 3.0% in 2017,80assuming the continuation of intended donor support and governance and policy reforms, as well stability of political and social conditions.81 52. Figure 8 provides a summary of forecast growth projections for the AKT Sub-Region and Afghanistan for 2017 in Real GDP, adapted from the ADB Development Outlook 2016 report. Figure 8. Growth (projections) in Real GDP for Afghanistan
Source: Adapted from ADB Asian Development Outlook 2016 Asia’s Potential Growth
78 ADB (2016): Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia’s Potential Growth 79 ibid 80 ibid 81 ibid
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b. The Importance of the Agriculture Sector 53. Even after three decades of conflict that has destroyed much farming infrastructure, limiting the sector’s capacity to lift output and contributing to severe food insecurity, this sector remains the main source of real GDP growth, employment and subsistence in Afghanistan – even though only 12% of Afghanistan’s 65 million hectares (ha) of land area is arable, and the actual cultivated area is substantially less than that due to a lack of irrigation.82 Figure 9. Afghanistan GDP Growth by Sector
Source: ADB Asian Development Outlook 2015
54. Figure 9 above highlights the GDP growth by sector for Afghanistan (actual and forecast) for the period between 2011 and 2016. In 2015, Afghanistan recorded an estimated economic growth rate of 1.5%, a marginal increase from the figure of 1.3% recorded in 2014.83 Overall growth was largely driven by growth in the industry (1.4%) and services (2.8%) sectors, offsetting the contraction in the agriculture sector (-2%). There was a slight recovery in the level of investment after several years of decline, with security challenges continuing to constrain investment. Assuming that there is no deterioration of the political and security conditions, and there is continued support from donors, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 2.0% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017.84 55. Three decades of conflict have destroyed much of country’s agricultural infrastructure, and eroded institutional capacity to provide technical services, such as regulation or the teaching of new farming techniques. Before the conflicts, Afghanistan was a top international supplier of horticultural products, commanding about 10 percent of the dried fruit and raisin market in the 1970s. That share has fallen to 2 percent. It also was self-sufficient in meat and milk and was a significant exporter of wool, carpets, and leather goods. Afghanistan was also self-sufficient in cereals and, at times, was a small exporter. 56. However, rapid population growth coupled with the destruction of much of the country’s irrigation systems, storage facilities and rural roads network during the years of conflict, have turned Afghanistan into a net importer of wheat. Even today, most agriculture is subsistence. Food crops account for over two-thirds of the cultivated area and are typically grown for household consumption, including perennial horticultural crops and vegetables. 57. Afghanistan has now embarked on developing promising horticulture value-chains, such as almonds, fresh grapes, raisins, and pistachios. Although, the major farming system of the
82 ibid 83 ibid 84 ibid
38 | P a g e poor is cereal production for household food security, most families are still only food sufficient for a few months each year. 58. Afghanistan continues to be a highly food-insecure country. Wheat is consumed at every meal by Afghans – boasting the world’s highest annual wheat consumption. Wheat is, therefore, the most important agricultural crop. However, low productivity, due to poor quality seeds and lack of farming skills results in an insufficient yield. In order to meet demand, Afghanistan imports between 30 and 60 percent of cereals, mainly from Pakistan.85 59. Covering 360,000ha, almost 14 percent of irrigated land and involving more than 2 million people, the horticulture subsector is vital for employment and growth. The sector contributes GDP 6.7 percent of national GDP.86 60. 15 percent of Afghanistan’s agricultural GDP, USD 680 million annually, is contributed by the livestock subsector. However, Afghanistan’s livestock exports (mainly of wool, skins and cashmere) are outweighed by its imports of live animals, meats, eggs and dairy products. The livestock subsector currently creates 1.1 million full-time jobs, however great opportunity for growth and employment remain.87 c. Poverty Status 61. Poverty reduction has seen little progress in Afghanistan, despite five years of economic growth and remains to be one of the poorest countries in the world. The poverty rate in Afghanistan has persisted in spite of an increase in international spending on both civilian and military assistance, as well as strong overall growth. The majority of the poor population live within rural areas, and more than half of the poor population are children below the age of 15.88 62. One of the key reasons for the limited poverty reduction in Afghanistan is the increase in inequality within the country itself. Three regions in particular lag behind the rest: East, West- Central and the North-East, largely due to spatial differences in aid allocation. This inequality can, however, also be attributed to the difference in vulnerability to climate shocks – with the regions left behind being more strongly affected.89
85 World Bank (2016) Afghanistan Country Snapshot http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/584381476781571691/pdf/109246-WP-AfghanistanCountrySnapshots- highres-PUBLIC.pdf 86 ibid 87 ibid 88 ibid 89 ibid
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III. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS & VULNERABILITIES
A. Introduction 63. This section sets out the projected climate changes that will occur in Central West and Asia up to the end of the 21st Century and, derived from these changes in the climate, examines the vulnerability of the AKT Sub-regional country grouping of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the impacts of climate change. B. Climate Change in the AKT Sub-Region 64. According to the IPCC, ‘Central Asia’ (including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and ‘South Asia’ (including Afghanistan) are two of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world, primarily due to widespread poverty and very low adaptation capabilities. 90 Current evidence suggests that predicted warmer temperatures, accelerated glacial melt, reduced winter snow cover and associated changes in river flows, and more frequent and intense drought and floods threaten the stable water supply for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption in the arid and semiarid regions of Central Asia and South Asia. More frequent droughts, catastrophic flooding from glacial lake outbursts, and landslides caused by destabilization of mountain slopes will lead to a progressive increase in economic losses and risk to the population, and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. 65. The impacts of climate change in the AKT Sub Region countries will be profound, and are likely to pose a serious risk to the economic growth and development of all three countries. From the point of view of regional GDP, sustainable livelihoods, food security, development, security and poverty the increasing incidence of drought and changes in river flows and seasonality represent very serious threats – and that these adverse effects, which will be compounded by projected high population growth rates in the 21st century and levels of adaptive capacity climate resilience. C. Changes in the Regional Climate
1. Observed Climate Change
66. Increasing evidence indicates that the AKT Sub-regional countries are being particularly negatively affected by climate change. Predicted warmer temperatures which in turn lead onto accelerated glacial melt, reduced winter snow-cover and associated changes in river flows, and more frequent and intense storms, landslides, drought and floods threaten the quality, volume and timing of water supply for agriculture, hydropower and energy generation for industrial and social development, and human consumption. 67. More frequent droughts, catastrophic flooding from glacial lake outbursts, and landslides caused by destabilization of mountain slopes will lead to a progressive increase in economic losses and risk to the population, and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. These adverse effects, which will be compounded by projected population growth in the 21st century, will exacerbate underlying national socioeconomic and environmental constraints, such as crumbling infrastructure, land degradation, and limited institutional capacity, and aggravate trans-boundary water and energy tensions in the Central Asian region.
90 Kelly, P. M. and W. N. Adger (2000): "Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation." Climatic Change 47(4): 325-352.
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68. The impacts of negative climate change are already being felt by the poor, women, people in remote areas and farmers and pastoralists. With less available water forecast over the coming century, changes in rainfall patterns and continued environmental degradation, there is an urgent need to sustain and develop climate safe practices in water quality, agriculture, irrigation, water storage, energy generation and cross border relations.
2. Future Climate Change Projections
69. Based upon the analysis of a number of climate models and impact assessment studies undertaken for Central and South Asia the following observations and predictions are applicable to the AKT Sub-regional country grouping of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Temperature: • Between 1950 and 2000 the mean annual temperature in Central Asia rose between 1.2 to 2.1 degrees Celsius, significantly greater than the global increase on 0.47 degrees Celsius.91 • The rate of temperature increase accelerated during the course of the 20th Century. • This temperature increase is strongest in winter, particularly November and December) with the spring months showing no increase or a slight decrease in mean temperatures. The rising mean temperatures are more pronounced at lower altitudes. • Temperature may increase by between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century • There will be more hot days and hot nights and more periods of extended hot weather (beyond 5 days) • There will be fewer cold days and nights. Rainfall: • The trends in precipitation are not clear but there will be a slight decrease over the course of the century, with this decrease being most felt in summer. • An increase in the number of extreme rainfall events with intensity as well as frequency increasing. Modelling results are consistent generally that precipitation intensity will increase, ranging from 2-6% over a 5-day period.
91 ADB (2016) RDTA-8119 REG: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia – Adaptation Component, Mid-term report
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D. Climate Change in Vulnerability in Central West Asia 1. Climate Change Vulnerability Defining Vulnerability
70. This study employs the widely accepted notions of vulnerability, (i.e., as a function of a system’s exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli and its capacity to adapt to their (adverse) effects.92 This approach, comprising the analysis of exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity helps to identify the combination of factors that either exacerbate or reduce the impact of climate change, and to distinguish exogenous factors (exposure) from background vulnerabilities that are not climate related (such as environmental degradation, poverty etc.) that are amenable to local policy actions (i.e. resilience and adaptive capacity – and ultimately future sensitivity). 71. Vulnerability has two principal elements: the climatic conditions themselves, and the extent and character of the population, wealth, and development (i.e. how ‘sensitive’ a system is a hazard or shock). A country or society that is already under substantial economic and social pressures typically will have lower levels of resilience and adaptive capacity. 72. Climate change vulnerability is defined by the IPCC as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”. 93 This interpretation whilst in keeping with the biophysical understanding of vulnerability, recognizes that vulnerability quite often depends on the ability of a community or society to adapt to changing climatic conditions - and this capacity to adapt is heavily reliant on a society’s level of wealth, education, institutional strength, and access to technology. a. Indicators of Vulnerability 73. For this study we used three internationally recognized vulnerability indexes to examine climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, these being: i) the Global Climate Change Risk Index94 for analyzing exposure; ii) the World Development Indicators 95 for assessing sensitivity; and iii) the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ND-GAIN for analyzing adaptive capacity and country readiness. 74. These indices have been developed separately to describe different vulnerability concepts for different purposes, and effectively use different data sources and different ranking systems, and hence is not possible to aggregate the findings from these indices to determine the overall vulnerability within this study. However, we have used the disaggregated information from the 3 indices separately to better understand the on the different aspects of vulnerability (i.e. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) for each country, and to inform decisions regarding the allocation of international funding for adaptation investment
92 IPCC (2007): Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.; Kelly, P. M. and W. N. Adger (2000): "Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation." Climatic Change 47(4): 325-35 93 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130 94 Germanwatch and Munich Re NatCatSERVICE (2016): Global Climate Risk Index: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2014 and 1995 to 2014. Sönke Kreft, David Eckstein, Lukas Dorsch & Livia Fische 95 World Bank (2015): World Development Indicators (WDI 2015) http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world- development-indicators
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2. Climate Change Exposure
a. Introduction 75. Exposure can be thought of as the climate stress faced by a country. Exposure is mostly represented by biophysical impacts of climate change upon various sectors, and most of the exposure measures are independent of socioeconomic context. In this section we use the Germanwatch’s global climate risk index (CRI) to review the exposure of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to climate change in terms of historical fatalities and economic losses due to extreme weather events. b. The Global Climate Change Risk Index 76. The Global Climate Change Risk Index (CRI 2016) is based on an index measuring the strength of future climate change relative to today’s natural variability, and measures a country’s ‘exposure’ to climate change based on a range of socio-economic indicators. The Index suggests that the countries most exposed to future climate change are those that currently historically have exhibited the highest level of climate damage. 77. The ‘Climate Risk Index for 2016’ report highlights worldwide vulnerability rankings for climate change exposure to hazards and, based on an analyses the extent to which countries and regions have been 1994–2014. It analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.), taking into account the most recent data available from 1995-2014. 78. In terms of the AKT Sub-regional grouping, it is clear that the ‘regional vulnerability’ reflects its diversity in terms of topography, governance and economic development status. The AKT Sub-regional grouping of countries differs greatly in terms of their economies, annual emissions and vulnerabilities. From Table 6 below, it is clear that within the AKT Sub-region, overall Afghanistan exhibits a higher degree of vulnerability to climate exposure than does Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. According to the Climate Risk Index for 2016, Afghanistan is the 2nd most vulnerable country worldwide in terms of exposure to extreme climate events – and 12th most vulnerable over the period 1995 to 2014. Tajikistan ranks as the 59th most vulnerable country and Kyrgyzstan is the 119th most vulnerable country for 2014. 79. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan clearly suffer from high exposure to economic drivers of climate vulnerability that make them very sensitive to the impacts of climate change. Tajikistan in particular stands out as not only having a high level of exposure but also a low level of economic capacity to respond to climate change. Table 3. Climate Risk Index for the AKT Sub-Regional Countries (1994–2014)
CRI Country CRI Deaths in 2014 Deaths per 100,000 Losses in USD Losses per unit Rank Score inhabitants (PPP) GDP
Ave Rank Ave Rank Ave Rank Ave Rank
119 Kyrgyzstan 108.3 12.4 72 0.23 66 3.56 152 0.03 147
29 Tajikistan 47.67 17.90 69 0.259 60 173.45 61 1.199 18
12 Afghanistan 34.67 259.85 15 0.96 17 150.10 67 0.366 46 Source: Adapted from Climate Risk Index for 2016 (Note: Avg. = average figure for the 20-year period between 1994 and 2014).
Exposure Rating: 100+ 51-100 21-50 11-20 1-10 Very Low Low Medium High Extreme
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80. As such the analysis of these two sub-indices goes a long way to explaining the relative exposure and vulnerability to climate-related risks for our three target countries. The countries ranking highest are the ones that are most likely to be adversely affected by the effects of climate change and may be considered to be at high risk from extreme events and climate induced natural disasters. 3. Economic and Social Sensitivity
a. Defining Sensitivity 81. Sensitivity refers to the extent to which a country or community is responsive to climate exposure, which typically incorporates a number of dimensions including: social, demographic, economic and cultural processes that influence how ‘sensitive’ a community or system is to the effects of climate change. For the purposes of this Study we have used the internationally recognized World Bank WBI Climate Change Indicators to analyze the background economic and social sensitivity of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the effects of climate change. b. The World Development Indicators 82. The World Development Indicators96 are widely used to measure a country’s ‘sensitivity’ to climate change, and is based on a range of socio-economic indicators that are likely to increase or exacerbate the impact of climate shocks. These include national, regional and global economic and social indicators, together with a range of physical sector based indicators, capturing the relative importance of water, energy and other sectors to national and regional economies. 83. The WDI Climate Change Data present statistics that relate to climate change, development, and the relationship between the two. We use a range of ‘sensitivity indicators’ across 5 sub-indices to estimate the impacts and risks of climate change on the water and energy resource sectors in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Each sub-indices contains nine indicators, totaling 54 indicators. Equal weights are assumed, as the chosen indicators are of relatively equal importance.
96 World Bank (2015): World Development Indicators (WDI 2015) http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world- development-indicators
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Table 4. World Development Indicators (WDI 2015) used to Analyze Climate Sensitivity
Economic Development Sensitivity Poverty & Social Development Sensitivity • GDP (current USD) • Total Population (in number of people) • GDP per capita (current USD) • Population growth (annual %) • GDP growth (annual %) • Urban population (% of total) • GNI per capita, PPP (current international • Population gender ratio (female % of USD) total) • GNI, PPP (current international USD) • Labor force participation rate, male (% of • Gross capital formation (% of GDP) male population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate) • Net ODA received (current USD) • Unemployment rate, female (% of female • Net ODA received (% of GNI) labor force) • Net ODA received per capita (current • Poverty headcount ratio at national USD) poverty lines (% of population) Water Resource Sensitivity • Urban poverty headcount ratio at national • Renewable internal freshwater resources, poverty lines (% of urban population) total (billion cubic meters) • Rural poverty headcount ratio at national • Renewable internal freshwater resources poverty lines (% of rural population) per capita (cubic meters) Energy Resource Sensitivity • Annual freshwater withdrawals, total • GDP per unit of energy use (constant (billion cubic meters) 2011 PPP USD per kg of oil equivalent) • Annual freshwater withdrawals, domestic • Urban population (% of total) (% of total freshwater withdrawal) • Energy imports, net (% of energy use) • Annual freshwater withdrawals, industry (% of total freshwater withdrawal) • Access to electricity (% of population) • Improved water source, rural (% of rural • Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per population with access) capita) • Improved water source, urban (% of • Electric power consumption (kWh per urban population with access) capita) • Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) • Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) • Agricultural irrigated land (% of total agricultural land) • Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) • Combustible renewables and waste (% of total energy) • Industry, value added (% of GDP) Cross Sector Sensitivity • Agricultural land (% of land area) • Permanent cropland (% of land area) • Agricultural irrigated land (% of total agricultural land) • Forest area (% of land area) • Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) • Urban population (% of total) • Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population) • Industry, value added (% of GDP) • Employment in Industry (% of total employment) Source: World Development Indicators (WDI)
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84. Our measure of vulnerability to climate change takes as its starting point the IPCC working definition of vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and incorporates social, economic, and natural science indicators.97 85. The selection of indicators for the sensitivity analysis was based on an assessment of the secondary literature on social vulnerability (including national and regional indicators for population demographics, economic development, energy and water resources, poverty and livelihoods etc.), and a review of what data was available at provincial and district levels. They include a range of economic and social indicators that are likely to increase or exacerbate the impact of climate shocks including a range of country-level comparable economic and social indicators capturing the importance of economic and social development, together with physical sector based indicators. Table 7 over page provides a summary of the WDI sub-indices that we used in the sensitivity analysis.
86. Using the indicators above, we were able to develop ‘sensitivity profiles’ for each country by rating them against WBI global and regional averages for Europe and Central Asia, and cross referenced against the ratings for South Asia (as Afghanistan is considered under this categorization), and these are illustrated in Table 8 below. Table 5. Sensitivity Ranking for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan (2014)
Country Sensitivity Ranking Overall Sensitivity
Ranking
ment ment
Economic Development Sensitivity Social Development Sensitivity Water Resource Develop Sensitivity Energy Resource Development Sensitivity Cross Sector Resource Development Sensitivity
Afghanistan 17.56 20.50 17.00 18.50 21.50 19.01
Kyrgyzstan 18.00 18.89 13.39 18.78 19.88 17.79
Tajikistan 19.72 19.25 16.28 15.72 21.21 18.44
Source: Derived from the WBI Indicators for Climate Change and Natural Resource Development
Exposure Rating: 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-15 Very Low Low Medium High Extreme Note: The darker the shading the higher the level of climate exposure and the lower level of resilience
87. From Table 8 we can surmise that the sensitivity ratings for Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are uniformly high across all sub-indices, however Afghanistan was assessed as being extremely sensitive to climate change in the social development and cross-sector resource development sub-indices – and Tajikistanis extremely sensitive in the cross sector area. 88. The radial graph visualization highlighted in Figure 10 allows us to better understand the dimensions of climate sensitivity for each country, where the shape and area of the ‘sensitivity
97 IPCC (2001a): The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
46 | P a g e profile’ expressed in this form is proportional to various components of sensitivity analyzed. This approach links socio-economic conditions with specific sector-based considerations.
Figure 10. Sensitivity Footprints for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Economic Development Sensitivity 25 20 15
Cross Sector Resource Development 10 Social Development Sensitivity Sensitivity 5 -
Energy Resource Development Water Resource Development Sensitivity Sensitivity
Afghanistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Low Medium High Extreme Source: Derived from the WBI Indicators for Climate Change and Natural Resource Development
89. Figure 10 illustrates the comparative sensitivity of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, across 5 dimensions: Economic Development; Social Development; Water Resource Development; Energy Resource Development; and Cross Sector Resource Development. It is clear that whilst all three countries have very similar profiles, Kyrgyzstan is less sensitive to the other two countries in terms of economic, social and water resource development sensitivity. However, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan both exhibit a higher level of sensitivity in the energy sector than does Tajikistan.
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4. Adaptive Capacity
a. Introduction 90. Like measures of vulnerability, measures of adaptive capacity vary considerably. The climate change literature is full of attempts to develop specific indices of adaptive capacity that take into account all the factors that may go into adaptation and enhancement of resilience to climate hazards, but it has proven difficult to develop simple indicators, especially when the data from on-the-ground field studies has limitations. In this section we use the ND-GAIN Country Index to review the adaptive capacity and resilience of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to climate change.
b. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ND-GAIN98 91. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ND-GAIN Country Index analyses a country's vulnerability to climate change using a range of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity sub- indices, in combination with an assessment of the country’s ‘readiness’ to improve its resilience. In addition to this the ND-GAIN Index provides a comprehensive framework for assessing the performance of national institutions on key functions required if countries are to adapt effectively to climate change. 92. The ND-GAIN Index differs significantly the other two indices in that it focuses on measuring a country’s adaptive capacity and its readiness to improve resilience. The ND-Gain index provides a measure of both ‘institutional capacity’ for adaptation (the ability of government agencies, research institutes, and other organizations to support activities needed for a country and its people to adjust to climatic changes over the long term) and readiness for adaptation investment (to assist businesses and the public sector better prioritize investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead). 93. In combination the ND-GAIN index provides an indication of ‘institutional capacity’ for adaptation based on the ability of government agencies, research institutes, and other organizations to support activities needed for a country and its people to adjust to climatic changes over the long term. ND-GAIN’s inclusion of the ‘readiness’ score expands our frame for looking at climate resilience, and this aspect is particularly useful for prioritizing investments at the country level for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead. 94. Vulnerability, according to the ND-GAIN Index “measures a country's exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to the negative effects of climate change.”99 The ND-GAIN index uses over 80 ‘parent’ indicators to form 45 core indicators to measure the vulnerability of 192 countries to climate change and readiness to adapt, with the explicit aim of furthering investment in adaptation. 95. A country's ND-GAIN index score is composed of a countries’ current adaptive capacity (measured in Vulnerability) and their ability to leverage future investment to increase resilience (measured in Readiness). Table 9 below provides a summary of the ND-GAIN Index to Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for 2014.
98 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ND-GAIN (2014): http://index.gain.org/ 99 ibid
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Table 6. ND-Gain Index for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for 2014.
Country Adaptive Capacity Adaptation Readiness Country
Ranking
Gain
-
Vulnerability Readiness Economic Readiness Governance Readiness Social Readiness
ND C0untry Score Trend
Afghanistan 33.4 0.61 0.27 0.35 0.18 0.29 169
Kyrgyzstan 54.4 0.36 0.45 0.59 0.34 0.42 77
Tajikistan 47.4 0.41 0.36 0.45 0.32 0.30 111
Source: ND-GAIN Index 2014
Adaptive Capacity
Rating: Better Worse
96. According to ND-GAIN, Afghanistan is the 17th most vulnerable country and the 11th least ready country. Not surprisingly Afghanistan’s high vulnerability score and low readiness score places it in the most vulnerable quadrant of the ND-GAIN Matrix. It has both a great need for investment in adaptation and at the same time a very low level of readiness to be able to absorb and leverage funding for adaptation action. The key drivers of vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity cited by in the NG-GAIN country assessment for Afghanistan are: political stability and non-violence (0.008); ICT infrastructure (0.130); and education (0.051).100 97. Tajikistan is the 78th most vulnerable country and the 52nd least ready country. The low vulnerability score and low readiness score of Tajikistan and hence is considered to be highly vulnerable under the ND-GAIN rating matrix. Relative to other countries, its current vulnerabilities are manageable but improvements in readiness will help it better adapt to future challenges. The key drivers of vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity identified by the NG- GAIN are primarily attributed to the lack of social and economic readiness. 98. Kyrgyzstan’s business environment, political institutions, and social factors make it more conducive to absorb and mobilize financial resources efficiently to reduce climate change vulnerability. This is reflected in its higher Readiness score and ND-GAIN ranking, compared to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. 99. Kyrgyzstan is the 54th most vulnerable country and the 91st least ready country, and the low vulnerability score and high readiness of Kyrgyzstan places it in the lower-right quadrant of the ND-GAIN Matrix. It is clear that whilst adaptation challenges still exist in Kyrgyzstan, overall it is well positioned to both absorb and leverage investment for climate adaptation.
100 Downing, T.E. and A. Patwardhan (2004): “Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation.” In B. Lim and E. Spanger-Siegfried. (Eds.) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies, and Measures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
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100. Fundamental to this study is the need to go beyond the scope of usual assessment of adaptive capacity in order to be able to assess the effect of climate change on national economic development, national governance, and the investment in climate adaptation. In this context we have used the ND-Gain Index to analyze the relative ‘readiness to adapt’ of each of our target countries, with the explicit aim of furthering investment in adaptation. 101. According to the ND-GAIN Index Readiness “measures a country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions. ND-GAIN measures overall readiness by considering three components – economic readiness, governance readiness and social readiness.” 101 The readiness score takes the average economic, governance and social readiness scores and uses these measures to assess a country's ability to leverage (or absorb) investments and translate them to adaptation actions. Figure 11. Country Readiness Measures for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (2014)
Source: ND-GAIN Index 2014
102. The ND-GAIN Matrix highlighted in Figure 11 illustrates the comparative resilience of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The vertical axis shows the score of vulnerability and the horizontal axis shows the readiness score. From Figure 11 it is clear that overall Kyrgyzstan exhibits a higher degree of economic, social and governance readiness than do Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan scores are low for components of readiness reflecting the geo-political and security challenges faced by that country. Whilst Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan exhibit similar scores for governance readiness, Tajikistan scores much lower in terms of social and economic readiness indicating a less attractive environment for doing business and attracting investment that could be used to reduce sensitivity and improves adaptive capacity. 103. It should be noted though, that whilst all three countries are clearly in need of international investment to increase resilience based on their current vulnerability and adaptive capacity this capacity has for the most part been declining over time. Figure 12 highlights the fact that according to ND-GAIN, adaptive capacity in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and to a lesser extent Kyrgyzstan, have been declining over the period from 1994 to the present.
101 ND-GAIN Index http://index.gain.org/about/methodology
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Figure 12. Time series plot of Capacity for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Source: ND-GAIN Index 2014
104. Figure 13 highlights the improvements in terms of economic readiness for Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over the period from 1995 to 2014. Whilst it is clear that economic conditions for doing business in all three countries are improving, unfortunately, these trends are not reflected in terms of the governance readiness or social readiness – and this is of major concern for all three countries.
Figure 13. ND-GAIN Time scale plot of Economic Readiness for AKT Sub-regional Country Grouping: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (1995 – 2014)
Source: ND-GAIN Index 2014
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THE FUTURE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE
E. Introduction 105. This section discusses the results from the PAGE09 integrated assessment modeling undertaken for the AKT Sub-region using the integrated assessment model PAGE09. The study compares key climate parameters, such as the projections of greenhouse gas concentration level, temperature change, population growth, and economic implications of climate change by comparing a business as usual (BAU) and a mitigation scenario (MIT). The results are presented in probabilistic terms: mean outcomes and the 90% confidence interval (from the 5th to the 95th percentile). This means that there is a 90% probability (chance) that the future value will be within this range.
F. PAGE09 Integrated Impact Assessment Modeling 106. There are a number of integrated impact assessment models (IAMs) available to model the economic costs of climate change. For this study we have used version 9 of the Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect (PAGE09). 107. PAGE09 is a “new integrated assessment model that values the impacts of climate change and the costs of policies to abate and adapt to it”.102 PAGE09 is a globally integrated model of assessment, which attributes economic value to climate change impacts and the cost of policies required for adaptation and abatement. The tool can therefore be used to inform policymakers of the price of both action and inaction.103 PAGE09 is a revised version of the previous PAGE2002 model, which was used to calculate the social cost of CO2 emissions in both the Stern Review104 and the ADB’s 2009 Review of Climate Change in Southeast Asia105, and estimate the impacts. For this study, PAGE09 has been updated to take account of predicated on the latest scientific and economic information from the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC.106 108. The PAGE model represents the climate change impacts, abatement costs and adaptation costs that result from two abatement and adaptation policies, in this case a Business as Usual (BAU) and a Mitigation (MIT) policy scenarios. All results are presented as probability distributions and changes in utility, so that risks can be fully considered. Net present values are calculated, so that the total effects of the policies, and the net benefit of changing from one policy to the other, can be found. The model results show the long-term economic impacts of climate change and estimate the magnitude of funding required in the AKT Sub-region to respond to climate change.
102 Hope, C. (2011): The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description, University of Cambridge 103 ibid 104 Stern, Nicholas H. et al. (2006): Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 105 Hope, C. (2011): The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description, University of Cambridg 106 ibid
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Figure 14 Chain of impact and policy analysis in the PAGE09 model.
Source: Hope (2011) and ADB (2009).
109. PAGE09 is structured to estimate costs in most regions equivalent to slightly under 2% of GDP per year in response to 3°C of warming. This assumption fundamentally determines the scale of global economic impact that PAGE09 can generate. The model varies the costs among world regions based on wealth, population, forecast temperature change, and relative vulnerability to climate change.107 110. 110. The key strength of the PAGE09 model is its simplicity versus other more complex scientific and economic models, as well as its ability to demonstrate the probable outcomes or uncertainties resulting from climate change. The model estimates impact/s through a damage function linking GDP loss with temperature rise. The impacts are driven mainly by three factors: i) region-specific temperature rise, which is determined by radiative forcing from global greenhouse gas concentration (including CO2 from energy-related and land-use change and forestry, nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and regional sulfates; ii) regional impact parameters which are a function of region-specific geographical characteristics; and iii) region-specific adaptive capacity which is determined by the adaptive policy chosen and the level of per capita income 108Table 10 provides a summary of the range of scientific, impact, abatement costs, and adaptation parameters used in the model109
107 Hope, C. (2011): The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model, Econstor Working Paper. 108 ibid 109 ADB, (2013): The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific. Manila ADB.
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Table 7. PAGE09 Scientific, Impacts, Abatement Costs, and Adaptation Parameters110
Science: • Inclusion of all six gases included in the Kyoto protocol; • Inclusion of transient climate response;
• Modification of the feedback from temperature to CO2 concentration; • Land temperature patterns by latitude. Impacts: • Impacts as a proportion of GDP; • Considering discontinuity of impacts by including the economic damages caused by a sharp rise in temperature once a threshold increase has been passed; • Equity weighing of impacts to ensure that impacts are valued uniformly across countries. Abatement • In PAGE09, marginal abatement cost (MAC) for each gas in each region is represented costs: by a continuous curve, with an optional possibility of negative costs for small cutbacks. The curve is specified by three points and by two parameters describing the curvature of the MAC curve below and above zero cost, respectively. Adaptation: • PAGE09 adaptation policy includes 7 inputs for 3 sectors (including sea level rise, economic and non-economic factors) for 8 regions, giving 168 inputs in all. Sea level rise does not apply to the AKT region. • The adaptation costs are specified as a percentage of GDP per unit of adaptation. Adaptation costs are assumed to benefit from autonomous technological change. • Abatement and adaptation costs can be fully equity-weighted, partially equity-weighted or not equity-weighted. • The latter options allow users to evaluate policies in which the adaptation and/or mitigation costs to poor countries are paid by transfers from rich countries. Source: Hope C (2011), The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model, Policy Brief https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1104.pdf . See also ADB, (2013): The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific. Manila ADB.
111. PAGE09 works with eight world regions, ten time periods to the year 2200, four sectors (sea level rise, market, non-market and major discontinuities), and is able to examine the impacts of climate change, as well as the costs of mitigation and adaptation.111 For the purposes of this study, we modified PAGE so as to be able to cover the AKT Sub-regional grouping of countries covered under the study (i.e. Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), and its parameters were updated with the modeling results from the sector-specific impacts of climate change. 112. The study ran 100,000 simulations of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to assess the impacts and costs of climate change in the region. It included the application of global climate projections, GDP and population projections in order to cost adaptation. The GHG emissions for the countries of the AKT Sub-region were taken from the respective National Communications and from the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions as prepared in 2015 for COP21 in Paris. Forecasts for GDP growth were taken from the IMF, population growth forecasts from the US Census Department. As sea-level rise is not relevant for land locked countries of the AKT Sub-region, sea level impacts were set to zero for this region. 113. The eight regions distinguished in this version of PAGE09 are: the AKT Sub-Region (Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan); European Union; Other OECD countries; Other former Soviet Union & Rest of Europe; China & Central Pacific Asia; India & other South East Asia; Africa & Middle East; and Latin America. For each of these regions the area, latitude, population,
110 Hope, C. (2011): The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description, University of Cambridg 111 Hope C & Watkiss P (2010) Climate Cost, The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model, Policy Brief http://www.climatecost.cc/images/PAGE09_Model.pdf
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GDP and emissions of all six GHGs are specified (using 2005 values). For each region and time period: GDP growth rates (for CWA from IMF); population growth rates (from US Census Department); and BAU emission growth rates for all GHGs are assessed. For the AKT Sub- region these are assumed to be the same as for India and SE Asia.
114. In PAGE09, the gases whose emissions are explicitly modeled are CO2, CH4, N2O and 'Linear gas', representing all the gases whose concentration is low enough that their contribution to radiative forcing is linear in their concentration: Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons and 112 Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Thus all the gases included in the Kyoto protocol are explicitly modeled. The forcing from CO2 is logarithmic; the forcing of N2O and CH4 are based on the square root of the concentration. 115. The probabilistic approach in PAGE09 pertains to 111 parameters for which a mode (average), a minimum and a maximum value has been set, making it a triangular distribution. When running PAGE09 random values of each triangular distribution are selected and used in the calculation. By repeating this process 10,000 times, the model results can be presented also as distributions. The main groups of parameters are: behavior and effect of GHGs; land temperature patterns by latitude; Sea level rise (not in the KKT Sub-region); chances of discontinuity; impacts as proportion of GDP; adaptive costs (regional); and mitigation costs (regional). The PAGE09 Model runs on the basis of a series of assumptions and date used by the TA team at the time of report submission. Some of the key assumptions are listed and explained below. PAGE09 Assumptions
Global GHG • Global GHG emissions levels are high giving a global total of 60 GT, compared to a Emissions global emissions of 50 GT in 2010 Levels • This is based on the PAGE emissions levels used by the US Environment Protection Agency 2014 base assumptions 1990-2010113 • PAGE gives a higher emissions assumption and a much higher proportion of Linear gasses. The Linear gas equivalent factors in the model range from 12 – 22,800. The PAGE model used the lowest number 12 to reduce the proportion. GHG • GHG emissions for the AKT-sub region are estimated at 138 Mt. emissions • The WRI CAIT estimates the amount to be 70kt levels for the AKT • The PAGE09 Model used 2005 as a base year. The emissions levels were based on the subregion most recent available national communications from the AKT region countries at the time of writing (2016). • For Kyrgyzstan, this was the 2nd National Communication. In the Third National Communication (27 January 2017) the 2005 numbers were changed and a CO2 sink was added. This means the CWA emissions will be high as a base as part of the PAGE09 Model. Per Capita • As per GHG Emissions. The PAGE09 Model used 2005 as the base year and the most Emissions recent national communications at the time of modelling (2016). Data GDP Figure • 49.3 billion for 2010 for the three countries is used as the base GDP Figure. used to • This is based on the PAGE09 database as the set scenarios for modelling assumptions. calculate The scenarios are taken from the IMF/World Economic Outlook Database April 2009. GHG intensity
112 Hope, C. (2011): The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description, University of Cambridg 113 https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_downloads/global-ghg-emissions-download1-2014.png
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G. Results from the PAGE09 Modeling 1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
116. For this study we modeled two GHG emissions scenarios, these being a business as usual scenario (BAU) and a mitigation scenario (MIT). The business as usual scenario used in this study is calibrated to the IPCC high-emission A1B scenario in terms of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. 114 The mitigation scenario (MIT) selected for this study was developed by the UK Met Office under the AVOID program and is known as the ‘2016 r5 low’ scenario. This scenario is designed to have a 50% chance of keeping the global mean temperature rise below 2 degrees and it is therefore compliant with the COP21 ambition of the Paris Agreement on climate change of December 2015. This scenario was selected for application in this study. 117. The difference between the two scenarios represent the incremental impacts, costs and benefits of the mitigation scenario as highlighted in Figures 15 a) and 15 b) over page. Figure 15 a) shows the difference between the BAU and MIT scenarios for total greenhouse gas emissions (as CO2-equivalent) at global and Figure 16 b) shows the difference between BAU and MIT scenarios for AKT Sub-region.115
118. Among the greenhouse gases CO2 is the most prominent one, although it is the least harmful per molecule. Each greenhouse gas has a different lifetime (time it stays in the atmosphere) and a different ability to trap heat in our atmosphere. To allow different gases to be compared and added together, emissions are converted into carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in this report.
119. The CO2 concentrations over time for the two scenarios for total greenhouse gas emissions (shown as CO2-equivalents) are shown in figure 15 below at global level and for the AKT Sub-region levels.
Figure 15. The trajectories for total greenhouse gas emissions under the two scenarios are shown as a) CO2- equivalent at global level; and b) for CO2-equivalent for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2008 to 2100).
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
114 ibid
115 Hope, C. (2011): The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model, Econstor Working Paper
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120. The PAGE09 model projects that the global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise under the BAU scenario from approximately 60 Gton today to a peak of 102 Gton in 2050 and stabilize at 90 Gton from 2100 onwards. For the AKT Sub-region the current GHG emission is 138 Mton, in 2050 it will have increased to 209 Mton and will stabilize at 163 Mton from 2100 onwards. For the global MIT scenario GHG emission will reduce to 20 Gton by 2050 and stabilize at 7 Gton in 2100. In the AKT Sub-region GHG emissions will decrease to 118 Mton by 2050 and stabilize at 90 Mton in 2100. 2. Per Capita GHG Emissions
121. On a per capita basis the GHG emission in the AKT Sub-region will decrease from 3.3 ton at present to 1.25 ton in 2100 in the BAU scenario and to 0.7 in the MIT scenario as illustrated in Figure 16 a). Figure 16 b) shows the GHG emission intensity in terms of kg GHG per USD GDP, showing that in the MIT scenario the intensity decreases faster than in the BAU scenario. Figure 16. a) Per capita GHG Emissions; and b) GHG Emission Intensity for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2008 to 2100)
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
122. World population is expected to peak at 9.44 billion capita in 2050, and decreases thereafter to 7.13 billion in 2200. The main population increases are expected in India & South East Asia (excluding Afghanistan) and Africa & Middle East. For the AKT Sub-region the population is expected to triple from 42 million at present till 131 million in 2100 and stabilize thereafter. The population scenario is the same in BAU and in MIT; in PAGE09 population increase is not subject to probability. 3. Global and Regional Mean Annual Temperature Rise
123. The rate of increase in global mean temperature depends upon the concentration of all greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is, in turn, a function of the emissions of greenhouse
57 | P a g e gases.116 PAGE09 projects that the global greenhouse gas concentration level will continue to rise under the BAU scenario from approximately 400 parts per million (ppm) today to more than 450 ppm in 2025.117 The greenhouse gas level is projected to reach 880 ppm in 2100 and to continue to rise beyond the end of the 21st century, which will inevitably have a significant impact on global temperatures.118 124. Figure 17 shows the annual impacts from climate change over time for the BAU Temperature and MIT Temperature Increases (2009 to 2100) globally and for the AKT Sub- region. The results are presented as mean values of temperature change and as 90% confidence intervals (i.e. the range from the 5th to the 95th percentile) to reflect the level of uncertainty in the estimates for temperature change. This means that there is a 90% probability (chance) that the future value will be within the ranges highlighted for each scenario. 125. At the Global level, PAGE09 projects that under the BAU scenario the mean global temperature will rise 3.8oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (with a 90% confidence interval of between 2.4 and 5.9oC – and a 4.6oC rise on average by 2100 (with average land temperature rising to around 5.8oC). Figure 17. Estimated Annual Temperature Increases (2009 to 2100) for the a) Global; and b) AKT Sub-region
126. For the AKT Sub-region, the average temperature rise for the BAU scenario is projected to rise to 2.4oC by 2050. By 2100, countries in the AKT Sub-region are expected to face around 4.8oC rise - a level higher than the global average increase. Under the MIT scenario average temperatures are projected to increases to 2.2oC degrees by 2100, with a 90% confidence
116 ADB, (2014): Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia. Manila: ADB 117 ibid
118 Hope, C. (2011): The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model, Econstor Working Paper
58 | P a g e interval of 1.4-3.4 degrees. Overall mean temperature would increase by 2.4oC, indicating that the modeled temperature increase both in the BAU and MIT scenarios is slightly higher for the AKT Sub-region than those expected to be experienced globally. H. The Economic Costs of Climate Change on the AKT Sub-region 1. Economic Impacts of Climate Change
127. Economic impacts for the purpose of PAGE modelling are defined as “those that are included directly in gross domestic product (GDP), such as agricultural losses.”119 The model simulates the total economic loss to the countries in the AKT Sub-region toward 2100, taking into account the impacts across the vulnerable sectors. Additional non-economic impacts such as losses associated with impacts on health or damage to infrastructure are not included in this study. 128. Figure 18 shows the annual global impacts from climate change over time for the high BAU and low MIT climate change emission scenarios out to 2100 for the AKT Sub-region Country Grouping, where the impacts are measured in USD billions. For the BAU scenario (Figure 18a) it is evident that the economic costs of climate change under the BAU scenario for the AKT Sub- region are expected to increase from an average value of USD 200 million per year in 2020 to an average value of USD 2.5 billion per year by 2050 (or 1.3% of annual GDP), and over USD 48 billion per year (10% of the region’s annual GDP) by 2100, with a 5% chance that the annual global impacts will exceed USD 100 billion by 2100 (or over 20% of the region’s annual GDP).120 Figure 18. a) Impacts of the BAU Scenario; and b) Impacts of the MIT Scenario for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2009 to 2100)
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
119 ibid 120 ADB, (2009): The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. Asian Development Bank, Manila.
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As previously mentioned, in the MIT scenario the introduction of methods of adaptation combined with relatively low temperature rise is estimated to contain mean impact of climate change to below USD 1 trillion until 2050. However, there is a 5% chance that annual global impacts will exceed USD 20 trillion (4.7% of annual GDP) BY 2100. With no adaptation, global impacts will reach USD 7 trillion (1.5% GDP) in 2100. 2. Incremental Costs of Climate Change Mitigation for the AKT Sub-region
129. The term ‘incremental costs’ refers to the difference between the investments costs of the MIT scenario and the BAU scenarios outlined in the previous section (i.e. between a low- emission and a comparable high-emission scenarios). These costs are different from the impact costs mentioned in the previous sub-section and hence are additional. The incremental costs of the MIT scenario over the BAU scenario represents the losses that would be incurred by not adopting the MIT scenario (which on the flipside can be thought of as the net benefits of the MIT scenario). Figure 19 shows the range of possible ‘impact costs’ from 2010 through to 2100 for a high climate change–rapid growth scenario estimated by PAGE09. 130. The results from the PAGE09 modeling suggests that the climate impacts in the AKT Sub-region will increase over time and will be prohibitively high in the long term in case no mitigation is applied. The central average value for the incremental cost of climate change under the BAU scenario is projected to be USD 1.4 billion per year in 2050, rising sharply to over to over USD 40 billion by 2100. For the period till 2050 the mean of these costs is negative (so there is no immediate net benefit from pursuing the MIT scenario) however, thereafter the mean costs rise exponentially and could be far higher than the average predicted. There is a small but not impossible chance of incremental costs rising above USD 120 billion per year by 2100. Figure 19. Incremental Costs of Climate Change Costs (without mitigation) for the AKT Sub-region (2009 to 2100)
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
131. Figure 20 shows that by 2075, when differences in impacts between the low and high climate change scenario start to become more pronounced, the annual mean costs of climate impacts are substantially lower at USD 3.0 billion in the low emissions MIT future than in the high emissions BAU scenario at USD 11.0 billion. By 2100 the estimated global impacts of the MIT scenario over time, discounted back to the present day (NPV) is a mean value of just over
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USD 2.0 billion. This compares to the mean value of USD 41.4 billion under the high emissions BAU scenario - indicating that it may be possible to reduce the mean costs of climate change in the region by more than USD 39.0 billion (i.e. more than a 90% reduction in costs).
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Figure 20. Incremental Costs (with mitigation) for AKT Sub-region (2009 to 2100)
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
I. The Costs of Adaptation in the AKT Sub-region 132. It is essential that adaptation measures are implemented in order to provide protection to the most vulnerable groups. In PAGE09 the costs of adaptation are specified as a percentage of GDP per unit of adaptation bought.121 In PAGE09 this ‘adaptation’ is modeled by reducing the damages by some percentage, and it is assumed adaptation is available to reduce 15 percent of the damages due to a temperature increase between 0°C and 2°C and is assumed to take 40 years to fully implement.122 133. The estimated of adaptation costs (in 2005 constant US dollars) for the AKT Sub-region are presented in Figure 21 and are USD 1.5 million per year in 2010, but increase to USD 547 million per year in 2050 and USD 1.8 billion by 2100. The 90% confidence interval in 2100 ranges from USD 986 million to USD 2.8 billion per year.123
121 Hope, C. (2011): The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model, Econstor Working Paper 122 Hope, C. (2011): The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description, University of Cambridge 123 ADB, (2014): Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia. Manila: ADB
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Figure 21. Adaptation Costs for AKT Sub-region under the BAU Scenario (2009 to 2100)
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
134. Based on the above estimates, the AKT Sub-region will require funding of around USD 547 million per year by 2050 for adaptation. When distributed proportionally to the 2005 GDP and sectoral distribution of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan, the funding requirements would be as shown is Figure 22 below. Figure 22. Indicative adaptation requirements per AKT country and sector by 2050
Source: 10000 default PAGE09 runs for this Study
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IV. IMPACTS ON KEY SECTORS
A. Introduction 135. This Section describes the direct impacts of climate change on the key sectors (water, agriculture & energy) in the CWA region. It includes a summary of the ways climate change will effect Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan produce and use energy, and highlights the importance of adapting the respective national water, agriculture and energy systems to the projected impacts of climate change, and emphasizes the importance of enhancing the institutional and policy settings for each country. B. Impacts of Climate Change on Key Sectors in the AKT Sub-region 136. The impacts of climate change are already being felt across the AKT Sub-region. Figure 23 over page highlights the interactions between climate change effects and the impacts of climate change on the water and energy sectors in the AKT Sub-region. It is clear that increasing regional and global temperatures will result in substantial changes within the hydrological cycle, leading to more extreme seasons and increased frequency of extreme weather events.124 137. In addition to this changing climate will also have significant deleterious effect on the availability of water and water security. It is predicted that water resource availability will decline due to the rise in temperatures and the impact of increased rate of melting glaciers, and reduced precipitation, eventually leading to significant declines in water resources of 10 to 15% after 2050; changes in the seasonal fluctuations in river flows, moving the peak season to earlier months, no longer coinciding with the traditional growing season and changing conditions on which reservoir operation is based. These issues will be compounded by increased demand due to population growth.125 138. By 2030, water deficits are likely to increase due to rising temperatures leading to growth in demand for domestic use and irrigation and the volume of available water will be affected by diminished flow from glaciers from about the mid-century, and changes seasonality of flow, and a greater variability of rainfall supply to catchments. The volume, timing and quality of water flows due to increased rainfall variability, leading to reduced water supply, water insecurity, and more frequent and severe water shortages. 139. Climate change is expected to further modify the timing and amount of water resources for hydropower generation. The bulk of the current generating capacity in A the AKT Sub-region is based on hydropower. All three countries currently suffer from electricity shortages during winter – and this is to be exacerbated by climate change into the future. Energy demand, usage and capacity are increasing significantly in the region. However, progress towards increasing the generation capacity, or expanding the energy mix has been limited primarily due to the declining economic outlook and declining foreign investment.
124 WaterAid (2007), Climate Change and Water Resources http://www.wateraid.org/documents/climate_change_and_water_resources_1.pdf
125 ibid
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Figure 23. Impact Chain: The interactions between Climate Change Effects and the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water and Energy Sectors in the AKT Sub- region
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140. Climate change will especially impact people who live in areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters and drought, or people who are poor. Climate change impacts in the AKT Sub- region are exacerbated by a number of socioeconomic factors that including: poverty, social disruption and conflict, gender relations, and unstable or not fully inclusive socio-political systems. Hence is expected that climate change in the Sub-region will have far reaching impacts on effects on civil society through impacts on a number of different social, cultural, and natural resources. For example, climate change may affect human health, food security, household wealth and poverty status. In particular, some groups of people will likely face greater challenges than others. C. Impacts on the Water Sector in the AKT Sub-region 1. Water Resources in the AKT Sub-region
141. Water resources in AKT Sub-region are primarily made up of the tributaries of the Aral Sea Basin, these being the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers and their tributaries. As the countries of this project are the headwaters of the Aral Sea Basin, consideration of their water resources must be done within the context of the basin as a whole. This is especially the case because of the water sharing agreements which are in place among the countries and also the very uneven distribution of runoff generation compared with basin area and water use. While Afghanistan is often ignored in publications on Central Asia water resources, it is a significant contributor to the overall Aral Sea Basin. Afghanistan contains part of the Amu Darya Basin (166,000 km2 or 16.2%) as well as 80,000 km2 (44%) of the Tedzhen – Murghab basin, totaling 246,000 km2 in the Aral Sea Basin as a whole (14.2%). A total of 37.7% of the area of Afghanistan drains into the Aral Sea Basin with the remainder flowing into the Indus River Basin and others (refer to Table 11). Table 8. Aral Sea Basin Distribution by Country
Basin Area Area % Countries in Area of Country % of Total Aral (km2) CAR Each Basin in Basin (%) Sea Area Syr Darya 531,650 11 Kazakhstan 345,000 64.9 Kyrgyz Republic 110,570 20.8 Tajikistan 15,680 2.9 Uzbekistan 60,400 11.4 Amu Darya 1,023,610 22 Afghanistan 166,000 16.2 Kyrgyz Republic 7,800 0.8 Tajikistan 125,450 12.3 Turkmenistan 359,730 35.1 Uzbekistan 364,630 35.6 Tedzhen- 182,010 4 Afghanistan 80,000 44.0 Murghab Turkmenistan 102,100 56.0 Total Aral Sea 1,737,270 37 Afghanistan 246,000 14.2 Basin Kazakhstan 345,000 19.9 Kyrgyz Republic 118,370 6.8 Tajikistan 141,130 8.1 Turkmenistan 461,740 26.6 Uzbekistan 425,030 24.5 Source: FAO Aquastat, Aral Sea Basin (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/basins/aral-sea
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142. The three beneficiary countries of the current project (Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan) together make up about 29% of the total Aral Sea Basin (505,500 km2). However, in terms of generation of water the picture is very different. 143. The topography of the Aral Sea basin is defined by the high, comparatively wet (annual precipitation between 800 and 1600 mm), mountains of Northeastern Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic and the very dry (annual precipitation 50 to 100 mm), flat lowlands of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. As is seen in Table 12, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic have less than 30% of the total basin area. However, as is indicated in Table 16, Tajikistan alone generates more than 50% of the total annual flow of the Aral Sea rivers and Kyrgyz Republic generates about 25%. Afghanistan, has 14.2% of the total Aral Sea Basin area and generates about 12.5% of the total flow. Together 88% of the total flow of the Aral Sea Basin is generated in those mountain regions of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. Table 9. Aral Sea Basin, Mean Annual Runoff by Country (km2)
Country River Basin Total Aral Sea Basin Syr Darya Amu Darya Tedzhen - km2 % Murghab Afghanistan 11.70 3.1 12.5 Kyrgyz Republic 27.42 1.93 29.35 24.8 Tajikistan 1.01 59.45 60.46 51.0 Kazakhstan 3.30 3.30 2.8 Turkmenistan 0.68 0.3 0.98 0.8 Uzbekistan 4.84 4.70 9.54 8.1 Aral Sea Basin 36.75 78.46 3.4 118.43 100 Source: CAWaterInfo, 2011 2. Impacts on Water Resource Availability
144. Perhaps the most important single issue within the subject of climate change in the AKT Sub-region with regard to water resources is the forecast loss of glaciers in Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The most glaciated country by far is Tajikistan in terms of numbers of glaciers, area covered and, most important, total volume. As these have been deteriorating for decades as temperatures have increased, river flows have increased accordingly and the countries have become used to these available flows as part of the water resource. As they deteriorate further they will eventually cease to be reliable storage systems and summer water resources will rely only on snowfall from the previous winter (rainfall in summer is rare). 145. It is expected that water resource availability will decline in the AKT Sub-region due to the rise in temperatures and the impact of increased rate of melting glaciers, and reduced precipitation, eventually leading to significant declines in water resources of 10 to 15%; changes in the seasonal fluctuations in river flows, moving the peak season to earlier months, no longer coinciding with the traditional growing season and changing conditions on which reservoir operation is based. 146. Water availability from glacier melt will initially increase and occur earlier in the year but will decline will towards the late middle and end of the century. Some estimates indicate that since 1930 glacier area has fallen by 30%. 126
126 CAWaterInfo (2011): http://www.cawater-info.net/aral/index_e.htm
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3. Impacts on Water Resource Supply and Use
147. The main rivers of Central Asia such as the Amudarya and Syrdarya provide the livelihoods of the people living in the semi‐arid region of Central Asia which relies heavily upon the use of the river water, mainly for irrigated agriculture and for hydropower generation. The two rivers originate in the Central Asian high mountains where glacier and snow melt contribute substantially to runoff generation and downstream water supply. Global climate change and the observed shrinkage of glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir raise the question about the spatio- temporal variability in glacier and snow-melt contribution to river runoff and potential changes in the runoff components. 148. Climate change is expected to exacerbate further water scarcity in the area. Rising temperatures are melting the glaciers of the region and 46 of them have already disappeared. Decreased runoff across the region by about 12%, with peak runoff occurring earlier in the season, which in the key basins of the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya may mean a decrease of up to 30%. In this context, it is likely that water deficits across the AKT Sub-region will increase due to rising temperatures leading to growth in demand for domestic use and irrigation and the volume of water of available will be affected by diminished flow from glaciers from about the mid-century seasonality of flow, and a greater variability of rainfall supply to catchments.127 149. This situation will be compounded by a growing population with increased demands for water per individual and an ageing irrigation and storage infrastructure that will become increasing inefficient. Water use for household, industrial and agricultural consumption will be in competition with increased demands for hydropower production. 150. Rising temperatures will increase demand for water from domestic, industrial and agricultural users at the same time increased evapotranspiration, reduced and seasonally altered rainfall will impact on the availability and amount of water from all sources including rainfall, glacial runoff and groundwater. 151. The demand for agricultural and domestic water in particular are likely to increase significantly during the hotter and drier periods. As water demand increases and water supply diminishes then there will be increasing national competition for water from countries downstream including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Conflict between nations to secure water supplies has been mentioned as a possibility. At the regional level, agriculture is currently the dominant end-use of diverted water, and with increasing populations into the future it is highly likely that the demand for water from the agriculture sector will only intensify Table 13 shows the areas irrigated in each country of the Aral Sea Basin, indicating the area currently equipped for irrigation with the percentage of total potential irrigable area.
127 Hughes J & Slay B 2008, ‘Climate Change’ Development & Transition, UNDP and London School of Economics and Political Science
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Table 10. Aral Sea Basin, Area under Irrigation
Country Area Equipped As % of Total Area Actually % of Area for Irrigation Potential Area Irrigated million Equipped (million ha) (%) ha)
Afghanistan 1.30 13 0.77 59 Kyrgyz Republic 0.42 4 0.42 100 Tajikistan 0.74 8 0.67 91 Kazakhstan 1.30 13 0.83 64 Turkmenistan 1.80 19 1.80 100 Uzbekistan 4.20 43 3.70 88 Aral Sea Basin 9.76 100 8.19 84 Source: FAO Aquastat, Aral Sea Basin (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/basins/aral-sea)128
152. Table 13 provides information on several statistics. Comparing Column 1 with Column 2 shows that the currently developed area of irrigation is generally small compared to the potential, indicating that there is room for further development in terms of land availability. The problem is that most of the water is already used and water shortages are common in drier years. Water resources, not land resources, are the limiting factor.129 Comparing Column 1 and Column 4 is also of interest. Some of the countries in the Central Asia region are irrigating only a portion of the land which has been developed for irrigation. The situation illustrates one of the major problems in the region which is that of deterioration of irrigated land (mainly salinization) due to overuse of water. Tajikistan has lost about 10% of its irrigated land. Kyrgyz Republic is still able to make use of all its land. Afghanistan has the lowest rate at 59% but some of this is caused by abandonment of land due to war and related factors rather than a strictly water use problem. 153. Irrigation schemes in Central Asia are notorious for very low irrigation efficiency – often on the order of 15 or 20%. This means that much water is wasted in these schemes and, combined with the vastness of the total irrigation area (more than 8 million ha with interest from all countries in expansion) the volumetric losses are extremely high.130 154. Whilst the impact of low irrigation efficiencies affects all of the AKT Sub-regional countries, the strongest impacts are felt in the headwater countries, especially Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. As upstream riparian countries they are expected to ensure sufficient water is available to the downstream countries. However, the water needs of the downstream countries are based on these very low irrigation efficiencies and result in Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic facing water shortages ever year as well as having their own development plans obstructed as they move to increase their own irrigation areas and develop their vast hydro potential. With regard to Afghanistan, while not party to these same water sharing agreements, have their own interests in developing both hydro and irrigation in the Amu Darya basin which will have a significant impact on the water resource availability for the downstream countries.131
128 FAO Aquastat, (2012): Irrigation in Central Asia in Figures, Aquastat Survey, Kyrgyzstan. 129 Sokolov, V. (2009): Future of irrigation in Central Asia. IWMI-FAO Workshop on trends and transitions in Asian irrigation. What are the prospects for the future? 19–21 January 2009 Bangkok. 130 ibid 131 Horsman, S. (2008): Afghanistan and transboundary water management on the Amu Darya: a political history
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D. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the AKT Sub-region 1. Impacts on the Agricultural & Crops
155. Agriculture is an extremely important sector of the economy of all three AKT Sub- regional countries as it is by far the most important livelihood activity for a large proportion of the population, and contributes significantly to both GDP and employment. Agriculture’s capacity to sustain the sub-region’s population is directly dependent upon the productivity and efficiency of irrigated land, since a large percentage of the population live in rural areas. 156. Agriculture will be one of the hardest hit sectors by climate change, reinforcing the unequal distribution of impacts. In all areas rising temperatures will increase stresses on crops and require more water. In Afghanistan the majority of the total agricultural area is rainfed and climate change may result in these lands being no longer viable. The majority of agriculture in AKT sub region is irrigated and significantly greater water will be required for irrigation at a time when water resources are declining. The agriculture sector represents a significant proportion of GDP of AKT sub region countries and is particularly important for populations that live in rural areas. Climate change is likely to have a significant and widespread effect on the agriculture sector in the AKT sub region. 157. Changes in temperature, annual precipitation and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather are likely to have significant impacts on crop yields in the AKT Sub-region. For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal temperature for growth and reproduction. In some areas, warming may benefit the types of crops that are typically planted there such as cotton or wheat. However, if warming exceeds a crop's optimum temperature, yields can decline. Declining crop yields are likely to leave a significant proportion of the rural population in AKT Sub-region without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food supplies, or to generate adequate incomes. At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for low levels of change in temperature, but will decline at higher levels of temperature change. 158. More extreme temperature and precipitation may even prevent crops from growing in some areas within the AKT Sub-region, especially in the more arid zones - particularly where irrigation capacity is not sufficiently developed to accommodate changing precipitation patterns. 159. There have been only a few studies quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change on Central Asian agriculture. Most of these previous studies were based on the integrated assessment method, involving mainly integration of climate and crop models and in some cases as in Bobojonov et al. (2014)132 also including economic components. 160. It is estimated that a 30% reduction in the availability of irrigated water will result in a 4%-17% reduction in anticipated gross agricultural income between 2010-2040. Climate change will create disproportionate affects across Central Asia, potentially even increasing agricultural incomes in rain-fed areas in the North, while reducing incomes in the Southern irrigated areas. By 2050, climate change may lead to higher rain-fed wheat yields in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (by 0%-11%), while in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan rain-fed wheat yields may decline (by 8%-18%).133 The yields for irrigated wheat may decrease in all countries (by 7%-14%).134
132 Bobojonova I, & Aw-Hassanb A, (2014): Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach. 133 Mirzabaev A (2013), Impacts of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Agricultural Revenues in Central Asia, Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 52(3) pp237 - 252 134 Ibid
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2. Impacts on Forests and Rangelands
161. Extensive livestock production is an important component of the economies of the AKT Sub-region. The Sub-region contains mountains, deserts and in particular vast area of rangelands. The semi-arid climate, with long, cold winters, makes large parts of Sub-region unsuited to crops.135 Most of the area is dedicated to permanent pastures supporting a range of arid and semi-arid grassland-based livestock production systems, mixed rain-fed production systems, and mixed irrigated production systems. Table 14 gives general data, on production of the main livestock products and productivity levels in the different systems occurring in the AKT Sub-region. Table 11. Rangeland/Livestock Production Systems in the AKT-Sub-region
Forest & Rangeland Systems Arable (%) Permanent Cropland (%) Forest / woodland (%) 1992 2015 1992 2002 1992 2015 Afghanistan 12 12 46 0 2 2 Kyrgyzstan 7 7 0 0 4 3 Tajikistan 6 5 1 1 3 3
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank DataBank (FAO Statistics)
162. However, unsustainable management of forests and rangelands in the Sub-region has led to their degradation hugely by downgrading their potential agro-ecological, environmental and socio-economical roles. Overgrazing has reduced the productivity of dry rangelands and threatens extreme desertification, while in the mountains it has, in some areas, degraded forest lands and reduced the stability of slopes, causing erosion, mud slides and reduced capacity for water retention.137 163. The rangelands of both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, for example, were overgrazed and mismanaged during the Soviet era, with the alpine grazing lands the most severely affected. The situation has deteriorated in the post-Soviet period, with land around villages becoming badly degraded. The degradation of the mountain vegetation has been accompanied by the progressive of the overall climate aridization. According to the existing data, over the last 25 years, the desertification border advanced vertically into the mountains by 500m.138 A number of southern semi-desert and desert plants have appeared here that previously were unknown. The main reasons for forest and degradation are: industrial and fuel wood harvesting over the past 40-50 years; intensive and increasing livestock grazing over the entire rangeland and forest area; and the impacts of desertification. 164. In a report produced by the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas it was found that the productivity of the rangelands in the non-mountainous arid areas in
135 FAO (2010): Forests and Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Forests and Climate Change Working Paper 8. 136 World Bank databank (FAO Statistics)
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Central Asia are highly likely to be adversely affected by climate change.139 Robinson and Engel (2008)140 also indicate the possibility of significant decreases in forage biomass up to 20% or more, except in mountain rangelands where the rise in temperatures could positively influence the pasture productivity.141 This is expected to directly decrease livestock production by 5-25% and wool production by 10-20%.142 165. In addition to this changing temperatures in the AKT Sub-region are likely to cause altitudinal changes in the distribution of different types of forest ecosystems forests – with some species extending their natural home range whilst other plant species will dieback in some areas as temperatures rise. In many cases, the pace of change in temperature is likely to be too fast for plant species and/or ecosystems to adjust. 166. Climate change, in combination with environmental degradation in the AKT Sub-region threatens the sustainability of production systems in the affected areas and, hence, of the associated livestock and forest production. Whilst extensive forestry and livestock production are likely to remain an important component of the AKT Sub-regional economies (as under the extreme climates that occur in the Sub-region, these enterprises remain the most viable), climate change is expected to have significant deleterious impacts throughout the Sub-region, which are likely to result in the loss of agricultural productivity and a decline in the household incomes of rural communities. E. Impacts on the Energy Sector in the AKT Sub-region 1. Energy Resources in the AKT Sub-region
167. In general, the AKT Sub-region is well endowed with water and an abundance of rich and varied energy resources (hydropower, oil, gas, and coal). However, these resources remain relatively underdeveloped (especially the hydropower potential in the upstream countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan). Unfortunately, in addition to this the water and energy resources across the Sub-region are not equally distributed the Sub-region and access to the resources is problematic. In some cases, there is a lack of physical infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable and inefficient. All three countries struggle to meet electricity needs during certain times of the year, and while others lack adequate water supply. 168. However, there is the opportunity for all three AKT countries to move beyond basic fossil fuel mining and exporting, and instead invest in and encourage the region-wide growth of various renewable energy industries. The diversity of such a mixed energy system offers an opportunity to meet all countries’ electricity needs on a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly manner—taking maximum advantage of abundant low-cost hydropower in the summer, and having the reliability of thermal resources in winter when the cold climate limits hydropower supplies. These resources can support increased economic growth and development in the Sub-region and have the potential to exceed domestic energy demand to supply export markets.
139 Gupta, R. et al ICARDA (2009) Research Prospectus: A Vision for Sustainable Land Management Research in Central Asia. ICARDA Central Asia and Caucasus Program. Sustainable Agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus Series No.1. CGIAR-PFU, Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Pp 84. 140 Robinson, S. and E. Engel (2008): Climate change and Land Degradation in Central Asia: Scenarios, Strategies and Funding Opportunities. GTZ-CCD, Unpubl. Report, October, 2008. 141 ibid 142 ibid
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169. The main challenges to developing energy in the AKT Sub-region are complex and varied, and include: the ‘ageing’ existing energy infrastructure; terrorism and other threats of instability; corruption and economic mismanagement; inexperience in the global economy due to the region’s long history under Soviet rule; and difficulties adapting to the global economy. 170. Despite these daunting problems, these three states have at their disposal many means to resolve their domestic problems and to develop strategically their energy policies to have the most optimal energy relationship among many markets that ensure domestic autonomy and the prevention of an emerging monopsony market, like Russia. With the recent addition of China entering into the ATK energy markets, all countries could reduce their dependence on Russia for economic survival; but their Soviet legacy and its diplomatic maneuvers show that Russia will nevertheless remain a substantial influence over the region. 2. Impacts on the Energy Sector
a. Overview of Impacts and Consequences
171. Energy resources in the AKT Sub-region will be increasingly affected by climate change, and in particular increasing variability, large inter-annual variations and an increase frequency of extreme events. Though potential climate impacts in the Sub-region have been broadly recognized at the country levels, little work has been undertaken within the energy sector or across the entire energy supply chain. 172. Energy supply in the AKT Sub-region is considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, primarily due to the high dependence of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan on hydropower generation. Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and droughts will each independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the AKT Sub-region countries to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. 173. Climate change directly impacts both the demand and supply-side of energy production. Energy systems and equipment in the sub-region are already subject to substantial threats from climate related natural hazards, such as flooding, landslide, mudflows etc. Climate change will also indirectly impact many segments of the energy sector in the sub-region, such as changes in demand for electricity – which in turn can affect energy distribution and consequently energy users. These changes are also projected to affect individual nation’s demand for energy and its ability to access, produce, and distribute energy. 174. Some of these effects, such as higher temperatures, are projected to occur in all areas. Other effects may vary more by region, and the vulnerabilities faced by various communities may differ significantly depending on their specific exposure to the condition or event. However, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) 143considers the primary impacts of climate change on the energy sector to be: • Impacts on both the demand and supply-side of energy production: Changes in temperature, precipitation, and the frequency and severity of extreme events will likely affect how much energy is produced, delivered, and consumed in a region. Increases in temperature will likely change how much energy is consumed, as well as influencing the ability to produce and deliver electricity reliably. • Impacts on hydropower resources: hydropower generation depends directly on the availability of water resources. Less flow equals less power produced - and this will have a significant economic impact on a region.
143 IPCC (2014): Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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• Impacts on energy transmission, distribution and transfer: Widely ranging weather and climate situations can impact the transmission and distribution of power, and the transfer of oil, gas, and other fuels. This is especially true in the case of transmission lines and pipelines characteristic of an alpine region that can extend thousands of kilometers and be exposed to wind gusts, storms, icing, storm-related landslides and rock falls, land movements, and siltation and erosion processes. Land-based transfers of energy (by road or rail, for example) are similarly exposed. 175. Energy systems and equipment in the AKT Sub-region are already subject to substantial threats from climate related natural hazards, such as flooding, landslide, mudflows etc. – and this is likely to increase with increasing frequency of extreme events and climate related natural disasters. Compounding factors may create additional challenges. For example, combinations of persistent drought, extreme heat events, and wildfire may create short-term peaks in demand and diminish system flexibility and supply, which could limit the ability to respond to that demand. Given the importance of energy in the economy and in the promotion of economic development in all three countries, it is vital that vulnerabilities within the energy sector are reduced.
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V. FINANCING ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE
A. Introduction 176. The provision of financial support from developed to developing countries – to help them adapt to a changing climate and develop in a low carbon way – is an obligation enshrined in the UN Climate Convention. Hence it is clear that more attention must be given to responding to the current impacts of climate change as well as to prepare for future impacts.144 177. ‘Climate finance’ typically refers to the financial resources paid to cover the costs of transitioning to a low-carbon global economy and to adapt to, or build resilience against, current and future climate change impacts. The term has gained prominence in climate policy discussions, due to increased appreciation of the need for and the challenges of mobilizing finance for climate related investments, and the role of the public sector in addressing risks, improving returns and closing knowledge gaps, to incentivize private investment at scale. 178. Climate finance is critical for addressing climate change in the AKT Sub Region due to the scale investments required to allow each country to adapt to the adverse impacts and reduce the future costs of climate change in the region. B. Global Finance Context 1. The Paris Agreement Key Provision 179. The Paris Agreement, reached at COP 21 in Paris on the 12th December 2015, represents an historic agreement between parties to the UNFCCC aimed at combating climate change and mobilizing investment in low carbon and climate resilient development. 179. The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.145 The Agreement essentially underwrites adequate support to developing nations and establishes a global goal to significantly strengthen adaptation to climate change through the ratcheting up climate finance to USD 100 billion by 2020, and setting a new goal for the provision of finance from the USD 100 billion initial commitment by 2025. 2. Ratification of the Agreement
180. The Paris Agreement entered into force on the 4th of November 2016, thirty days after the date on which a minimum of 55 Parties to the Convention, accounting for a total of 55% of the total greenhouse gas emissions, had deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the UNFCCC.146 The requirements for entry into force were met on the 5th of October 2016, with a total of 74 Parties to the Convention, contributing to 58.82 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions.
144 UNFCCC (2010a): UN Climate Convention http://unfccc.int/2860.php 145 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement (adopted 12 December 2015, entered into force 4th November 2016) FCCC/CP/2015/L.9 146 ibid
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181. The Paris Agreement commits developed countries to provide finance for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, and whilst a concrete number was not included in the legally binding part of the Agreement, reference is made to the joint goal to mobilize USD 100 billion annually by 2020 and the need to scale up support to allow for a low carbon, climate resilient transition. In addition to this the USD 100 billion goal is to be extended through to 2025 before which date a new collective finance goal is to be defined taking the USD 100 billion as a minimum level. 182. In support of reaching an international agreement on climate change, countries were invited to submit their Intended NDCs (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ahead of or at COP21. Governments pledged new climate finance in the run up to COP21, with developed countries offering public finance that will result in at least USD 18.8 billion per year by 2020. In addition, Japan aims to mobilize USD 10 billion per year in public and private finance by 2020. New pledges to climate funds, including the Adaptation Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF), added up to more than USD 1.5 billion (including pledges of USD 1m from the city of Paris, and funding from the state government of Quebec). All multilateral development banks have also pledged to scale up climate finance in developing countries substantially by 2020, to more than USD 30 billion per year. 183. The INDC GHG reduction commitments received to date are insufficient to meet the agreed 2°C maximum target increase in mean temperature above pre-industrial levels. Nevertheless, potential progress in this regard is significant in that business-as-usual emissions would lead to a 4°C–5°C increase by 2100, while the current INDC emission reduction pledges would lead to a 2.7°C–3.7°C increase by 2100 (WRI 2015). In order to reach the overarching goal of limiting global warming to (maximum) 2°C above preindustrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced rapidly over the coming years and decades and brought to zero shortly after mid-century. Even with the new pledges made in Paris the emission gap between that goal and the reality will however not be closed. 184. The COP21 was not very successful in securing adequate, long-term financial support for climate action.147 The current funding for a low-carbon transition is inadequate to meet the commitments of the developing countries, many of which have set a two-stage emission reduction target - one utilizing domestic resources and the other higher commitment dependent upon access to climate finance. In this regard, many of the mitigation actions proposed in the INDCs of several developing member countries (DMCs) are conditional upon access to additional and concessional finance. C. The Global Adaptation Finance Gap 185. Research, conducted over the course of the last decade, has demonstrated increasing and varying estimates of the cost of adaptation, therefore demonstrating the uncertainty of scientific knowledge. The World Bank estimated that the cost between 2010 and 2050 of adapting to a two degree warmer world by 2050 would be in the range of USD 70 billion to USD 100 billion per year. 148
147 ADB (2016): Assessing the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of ADB Developing Members. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No.44 August 2016 148 World Bank (2010): The economics of adaptation to climate change, A Synthesis Report, Final Consultation Draft.
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Other estimates of the annual costs of adaptation in developing countries range from USD 10 to 40 billion/year (World Bank 2006) to USD 86 billion/year.149 The UNFCCC estimates of the annual global costs of adaptation in 2030 range between USD 44 billion and USD 166 billion.150 Figure 24.Global estimates of the costs of adaptation up to 2050
Source: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2014
186. UNEP’s 2014 Adaptation Gap Report (AGR), which draws on new national and sector studies suggest that these estimates represent a significant underestimate, particularly for the period after 2030. Based on an assessment of national and sector studies, the AGR 2014 indicated that by 2030 the costs of adaptation could be two to three times higher than the range cited in the IPCC, and plausibly four to five times higher by 2050.151 187. The latest Adaptation Gap Report, released by UNEP, indicates that costs may be even higher than reported in the AGR Report 2014. The updated report estimates that if the 2 degree
149 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2007): Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World. Palgrave Macmillan: New York. 150World Bank (2010): The economics of adaptation to climate change, A Synthesis Report, Final Consultation Draft. 151 UNEP (2014): The Adaptation Gap Report 2014. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi http://www.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/gapreport2014/
77 | P a g e target is exceeded, the cost of adapting to climate change in developing countries could rise to between USD $280-500 billion per year, four to five times the previous estimate.152 Other recent reports suggest the timeframe to ramp-up funding may be even shorter. Research by Climate Analytics, commissioned by Oxfam, estimates the future costs of adaptation based on the level of mitigation ambition contained in INDCs, and suggests developing countries could face adaptation costs of around USD $240 billion per year as early as 2030.153 188. Even if global greenhouse gas emissions are cut to the level required to keep global temperature rise below 2°C this century, the cost of adapting to climate change in developing countries is likely to reach two to three times the previous estimates of USD 70-100 billion per year by 2050 – and fall perilously short of the of the finance required should the 2o C target be exceeded. 189. Despite the pledges made around the Paris Agreement, there is a substantial gap between the scale of support requested in countries’ INDCs and the current amounts of climate finance pledged by developed countries for both mitigation and adaptation. Based on the most recent estimates show that the developing world will require USD 140 to USD 300 billion a year by 2050 to adapt to climate change.154 Taking the most recent commitments for adaptation in 2013 and the lowest estimated needs by 2050, adaptation finance will need to increase by 438 percent by 2050 as illustrated in Figure 28. Without further action on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the cost of adaptation will increase even further as wider and more expensive action is needed to protect communities from the intensifying impacts of climate change. Figure 25. The Gap between Estimated Adaptation Needs and Available Public Finance (2013-2050, Low Estimate)
USD Billions
140 430+% INCREASE NEEDED BY 2050
26
Commitments in 2013 Annual Costs of Adaptation by 2050
Source: UNEP (2014), ‘The Adaptation Gap Report’. World Resource Institute
152 UNEP (2015) The Adaptation Gap Report http://web.unep.org/sites/default/files/gapreport/UNEP_Adaptation_Finance_Gap_Update.pdf
153 ibid 154 ibid
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190. To address this funding gap, the leaders of many developing countries continue to call for a clear commitment on scaling-up adaptation financing, both public and private. They are also calling for a more credible pathway to reach the USD $100 billion annual financing, with mid-term targets and milestones. Oxfam estimates that public climate finance will only amount to USD $18–$23 billion per year by 2020.155 Of this amount, only USD $6–$9 billion will be public adaptation finance per year by 2020. Even the most effective reductions in emissions, however, would not prevent further climate change impacts, making the need for adaptation unavoidable.156 D. The Adaptation Finance Gap for the AKT Sub-region 1. Financial Flows for Adaptation in the AKT Sub-region
191. A comprehensive assessment of the level of international climate finance flowing to the Central or South Asia are not available. In the absence of a comprehensive tracking system and a lack of complete agreement on what constitutes climate finance, we have used a combination of OECD and INDC data to assess the scale and flow of climate finance for the AKT Sub- regional grouping of countries. 192. The total investment finance flowing into the AKT Sub-region for climate adaptation for the period 2013 to 2014 was approximately USD 390.94 million from bilateral and multilateral sources. As can be seen from Figure 29, Tajikistan was the recipient of the highest level of investment with financial flows for adaptation of around USD 191.18 million, followed by Afghanistan with USD 162.96 million and Kyrgyzstan of USD 37.30 million.157 193. In terms of investment finance flowing into different sectors for climate adaptation for the same period, the majority of investment occurred in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing with USD 178.26 million and water supply & sanitation USD 32.00 million respectively.158 The level of investment across the other sectors in comparison was very low, and is indicative of the very low level of investment in adaptation generally across the AKT Sub-region when compared with commensurate levels of investment in other regions such as South East Asia, East Asia and South Asia (as highlighted in the previous sections).
155 OXFAM 2016, Unfinished Business: How to close the post-Paris adaptation finance gap, Briefing Note https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bn-unfinished-business-post-paris-adaptation- finance-160516-en_0.pdf 156 Klein, R.J.T et al. ‘Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation’, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press 157 UNEP (2014): The Adaptation Gap Report 2014. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi http://www.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/gapreport2014/ 158 ibid
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Figure 26. Climate Investment Finance for Adaptation in the AKT Sub-region (2013-2014)
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Afghanistan
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Banking, Financial and business services Energy generation - and supply 50.00 100.00 General 150.00 environmental protection 200.00 250.00 Government and civil society Health Humanitarian aid and Developmental Food Aid Industry, Mining, Construction, Trade policy and Tourism Multi sector Other social infrastructure Transport and storage Water supply and sanitation Source:Unallocated/Unspecified OECD Climate Finance Data 2015
2. The Adaptation Finance Gap for the AKT Sub-Region
194. The annual climate change adaptation financing requirements for the AKT Sub-region have been assessed by PAGE09 as USD 547 million by 2050 (with a 90% probability range of USD 300-846 million). However, the multilateral and bilateral financial flows for climate change adaptation for the 2013 – 2014 period was slightly over USD 250 million – representing a shortfall in investment funding of around USD 300 million annually when compared to the PAGE09 estimate for 2050 as illustrated in Figure 30 below. Figure 27. The Estimated Adaptation Finance Investment Gap for the AKT Sub-region Country Grouping (2014-2050, MIT Scenario)
Source: OECD and PAGE09 calculations
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3. INDC Commitments, Contributions and Financing Requirements
a. AKT Sub-regional Country INDC Commitments
195. In the AKT Sub-region, all three countries in the sub-region submitted their INDC’s at COP21 outlining their intended mitigation contribution target in terms of percentage reduction in GHG emissions. Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan aim to reduce their GHG emission from 11.49 to 90% by 2030, compared with BAU (for Afghanistan and the Kyrgyz Republic), or to 1990 levels (for Tajikistan). 196. In their INDCs prepared for COP21, Afghanistan and Tajikistan included lists of sectoral climate actions and priorities as highlighted in Table 22 over page. Unfortunately, Kyrgyzstan did not identify their sectoral climate actions and priorities – however the sectoral priorities in all three countries are very similar. Afghanistan and Tajikistan placed sectoral priorities on agriculture and natural resources, energy, and water. Within the Agriculture and Natural Resources sectors, sustainable forest management, in particular regeneration of degraded forests, afforestation/reforestation, and forest protection, were identified as priority measures in the INDCs for Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Development of sustainable agricultural/irrigation systems were also a priority action specifically for both countries. Table 12. Checklist of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for the AKT Sub-Regional Countries
Conditiona Mitigation Targets Sectoral Measures
lity
Country
Conditional Combined Energy Renewable Increased Efficiency Energy Enhanced Carbon/GHG Reduced Intensity Emission Carbon/GHG Reduced Emissions Carbon/GHG Neutral Emissions Natural & Agriculture Resources Energy Trade & Industry Transport Urban Water Targets/Measures Adaptation Requirements Financing
Afghanistan √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Kyrgyzstan √ √ √
Tajikistan √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Source: ADB (2016): Assessing the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of ADB Developing Members
197. In the Energy sector, the use of alternative and renewable energy was identified as a priority in the INDCs for Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Unfortunately, energy efficiency and conservation measures were not highlighted as a priority. In terms of the Water sector, the priority measures, as covered in the INDCs of Afghanistan and Tajikistan, and were mainly focused on sustainable water resources management. 198. In the area of environment, climate change, and disaster risk management, the AKT Sub-regional INDCs, particularly for Afghanistan and Tajikistan, highlighted priority on adaptation actions and/or disaster risk reduction and management. Some of the key intentions highlighted in the INDCs are as follows: • Afghanistan - focus on the development and adaption of a climate change strategy and action plan as well as development of a system to asses and monitor adaptation
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and vulnerability to climate change . Afghanistan also aims to strengthen meteorological and hydrological monitoring systems. • Tajikistan - disaster risk reduction, modernization of hydro-meteorological services, and the full-scale integration of climate resilience and adaptation measures into planning and development of the green economy.
b. AKT Sub-regional Country Financing Requirements
199. Finance has a key role in the implementation of the NDCs. A recent study reviewed the financial aspects of the INDCs and estimated total financing needs, based on the current INDCs, to roughly amount to more than $4.4 trillion (or $349 billion annually).159 However, the intended contributions and outlined mitigation and adaptation actions set out in the INDCs for COP21 are dependent on international/developed country support on financing, capacity building, and technology transfer. 200. All three AKT Sub-regional countries provided commitments that are conditional (fully or partially) on provision of support in finance as well as capacity building, and/or technology transfer. However, only Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan provided an estimate of required financing to implement the mitigation/adaptation actions outlined in the INDCs. Kyrgyzstan provided partial/rough estimates, while Afghanistan provided an estimate based on adaptation/mitigation measures identified. Afghanistan estimated its adaptation costs at USD 10.785 billion for the period 2020-30, and Kyrgyzstan estimated its climate change adaptation costs at USD 1,938 million per year by 2100 (of which USD 213 million would be made available from national sources), however these estimates only relate to mitigation activities only and so are very much on the low side.160 201. Further to this, only Afghanistan highlighted the need for access to climate financing in the INDCs. Afghanistan stated that it “requires the UNFCCC, the GEF, the GCF, and other international institutional arrangements to provide the extra finance and other support needed to successfully implement Low Emission Development Strategies across all sectors of its economy without compromising socio-economic development goals.” E. Country Level Climate Investment in the AKT Region 1. Climate Investment Finance for Tajikistan
202. Over the last few years Tajikistan has been successful in tapping into USD 47.8 million in grant financing from the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) for investments, and this has not only reinvigorated the process of building understanding and capacity on climate change issues in the country, but also greatly enhanced the institutional framework to implement climate change activities and attract climate investment finance. Figure 31 provides a snapshot of the financial flows for Tajikistan for 2014, in terms of total CIF investments (in USD millions), together with a breakdown by source (Bilateral or Multilateral) and by climate objective (i.e. Mitigation, Adaptation or Both).
159 Weischer et al. (2016): Investing in Ambition: Analysis of the Financial Aspects in (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions. Briefing Paper. Germanwatch and Perspectives Climate Group: Bonn. https://germanwatch.org/en/download/15226.pdf 160 ADB (2016): Assessing the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of ADB Developing Members. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No.44 August 2016
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Figure 28. Tajikistan Investment Flows 2014
Source: OECD 2015
203. Following on from this, Table 23 provides a summary of the Bilateral climate investment finance flowing into Tajikistan in 2014 161 for both mitigation and adaptation investments. Significantly, of the USD 58.615 million flowing to Tajikistan USD 58.588 million was sighted for climate adaptation activities – and USD 46.325 million for climate mitigation activities (whereby the USD 46.298 million overlap was viewed as mitigation co-benefits).
Table 13. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Tajikistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 56.550 46.110 56.525 46.086 Banking, Financial & business services 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 Environmental protection 0.002 0.002 Government & civil society 0.114 0.015 0.114 0.015 Industry/mining/construction/trade/tourism 1.292 1.292 Population & reproductive health 0.461 0.461 Water supply & sanitation 0.036 0.036 0.036 0.036 Total 58.615 46.325 58.588 46.298
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015 204. In terms of Multilateral funding for climate adaptation in 2014, Tajikistan was successful in attracting a total of USD 97.341 million climate finance, of which USD 75.154 million was for climate adaptation and USD 80.258 for climate mitigation respectively - with an overlap of USD 58.071 investment in co-benefit projects as illustrated in Table 24.
161 OECD (2015): “Climate finance in 2013-14 and the USD 100 billion goal”, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in collaboration with Climate Policy Initiative. http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/OECD-CPI-Climate-Finance-Report.htm
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Table 14. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Tajikistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 5.253 5.253 Environmental protection 14.763 14.763 Water supply & sanitation 8.141 5.970 5.970 3.799 Unallocated 69.184 54.272 69.184 54.272 Total 97.341 80.258 75.154 58.071
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015 2. Climate Investment Finance for Kyrgyzstan
205. Figure 32 provides a snapshot of the financial flows for Kyrgyzstan for 2014, in terms of total CIF investments (in USD millions), together with a breakdown by source (Bilateral or Multilateral) and by climate objective (i.e. Mitigation, Adaptation or both). Figure 29. Kyrgyzstan Investment Flows 2014
Source: OECD 2105 206. Table 25 provides more recent data the bilateral climate investment finance flowing into Kyrgyzstan in 2014162 for both mitigation and adaptation investments. Total bilateral climate investment finance flowing for Kyrgyzstan in 2014 for both mitigation and adaptation investments was only USD 14.242 million. Of this, only USD 7.312 million was invested in climate adaptation (primarily for Government & civil society).
162 ibid
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Table 15. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Kyrgyzstan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.009 0.009 Banking, Financial & business services 5.987 5.987 Environmental protection 0.439 0.439 Government & civil society 6.508 6.508 Health 0.086 0.086 Industry/mining/construction/trade/tourism 0.009 0.009 Population & reproductive health 0.190 0.023 0.167 Transport & storage 1.012 0.386 0.627 Unallocated 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 Total 14.242 6.932 7.312 0.002
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015
207. In terms of multilateral funding for climate adaptation in 2014, Kyrgyzstan was successful in attracting a total of USD 63.171 million climate finance, of which the majority of finance USD 63.071 million was invested in climate mitigation and only USD 8.547 was invested in climate adaptation - and this was considered to be overlap for co-benefit projects, as illustrated in Table 16 over page.
Table 16. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Kyrgyzstan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 17.397 17.397 Banking, Financial & business services 13.025 13.025 Environmental protection 14.763 14.763 Government & civil society 0.358 0.358 Health 0.994 0.994 0.994 0.994 Multi sector 1.563 1.563 Population & reproductive health 7.717 7.717 0.199 0.199 Transport & storage 0.099 0.099 Water supply & sanitation 7.254 7.254 7.254 7.254 Total 63.171 63.071 8.547 8.447
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015 208. The key priorities for adaptation to climate change in Kyrgyzstan are clearly outlined the National Priorities for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kyrgyz Republic till 2017 (“Priority Directions”). 163 In addition to this, the Kyrgyz Republic has developed sectorial plans and
163 Kyrgyz Republic (2013): Priority Directions for adaptation to climate change in the Kyrgyz Republic till 2017, 2013.
85 | P a g e programs for adaptation in all vulnerable sectors, including agriculture, energy, water, emergencies, healthcare and forest and biodiversity. The main mission of the Priority Directions is the establishment of the national policy on resources mobilization for minimization of negative risks and utilization of potential opportunities of climate change for sustainable development of the Kyrgyz Republic, based on adaptive measures implementation in economic sectors, which are the most vulnerable to climate change. 209. In March 2015, the Government of Kyrgyz Republic officially submitted an expression of interest (EoI) to the CIF Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), centered on the promotion of the low-carbon development and climate change adaptation activities, capacity building and institutional strengthening, as identified in the Priority Directions Statement for Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz Republic’s EoI to develop an investment plan for the PPCR as approved by the CIF on 14 May 2015. The approval makes available USD 1.5 million to prepare a Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) for the PPCR. The grant is expected to be executed by the Government of Kyrgyz Republic, in cooperation with the multilateral development banks in 2016 – and we expect that this initiative will better position Kyrgyzstan to leverage financial support for investment for climate adaptation through the early completion of an investment plan under the auspices of the PPCR program. 3. Climate Investment Finance for Afghanistan
210. Figure 33 over page provides a snapshot of the financial flows for Afghanistan for 2014, in terms of total CIF investments (in USD millions), together with a breakdown by source (Bilateral or Multilateral) and by climate objective (i.e. Mitigation, Adaptation or both).
Figure 30. Afghanistan Investment Flows 2014
Source: OECD 2105
211. Table 27 provides a summary of the Bilateral climate investment finance flowing into Afghanistan in 2014 (OECD Climate Finance Data 2015) for both mitigation and adaptation investments. Total Bilateral climate investment finance flowing for Afghanistan in 2014 for both mitigation and adaptation investments was USD 135.873 million. Of this, USD 89.675 was invested in climate mitigation and USD 94.909 million respectively – with USD 48.710 million considered to be overlapping.
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Table 17. Bilateral Climate Finance Investment for Afghanistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 58.08 45.94 58.08 45.94 Banking, Financial & business services 22.51 1.49 22.51 1.497 Environmental protection 22.47 22.47 Government & civil society 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.060 Health 3.52 3.52 Humanitarian & food aid 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 Industry/mining/construction/trade/tourism 2.33 2.33 Population & reproductive health 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 Transport & storage 14.76 14.76 Water supply & sanitation 10.93 0.21 10.71 Total 135.87 89.67 94.91 48.71
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015
212. In terms of Multilateral funding for climate adaptation in 2014, a total of USD 11.604 million climate finance was invested by Multilateral agencies, of which the majority of finance USD 105.646 million was invested in climate mitigation and only USD 6.959 million was invested in climate adaptation in environmental protection (as outlined in Table 28). Table 18. Multilateral Climate Finance Investment for Afghanistan for 2014 (USD million, constant 2013 prices)
Sector Total Mitigation Adaptation Overlap
Environmental protection 105.65 105.65 Government & civil society 6.95 6.95 Total 112.60 105.65 6.95
Source: OECD Climate Finance Data 2015
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F. Closing the Adaptation Finance Gap 213. The goal in the Paris Agreement states that ‘finance flows’ should be consistent with a pathway towards “low emission and climate resilient development”, in the context of climate adaptation, sustainable development priorities and efforts to eradicate poverty. In the coming years, the challenge will be to match these commitments to invest in climate solutions with countries’ ambitious national climate and development plans that urgently require financing. Aligning finance with the Agreement also requires moving investments out of sectors and activities that drive climate change, such as fossil fuels, which are incompatible with achieving the temperature goals. 214. Over the next five years a substantial amount of effort will be required to unlock the investments needed to deliver on the promises all countries made in 2015 on both climate and development. Shifting investment so that countries can achieve and exceed their national pledges, known as Intended National Determined Contributions (INDC), stopping investment in old world, high-carbon approaches to development and investing in adaptation and sustainable development will be required to catalyze adaptation action, streamline and enhance UNFCCC institutions, and mobilize resources to help particularly vulnerable developing countries cope with climate impacts. 215. Whilst the Paris Agreement represents a significant step forward, lots of work remains to increase the scale and predictability of finance necessary for achieving the Agreement’s ambitious aims. In particular, countries will need to work together to: • Provide a roadmap for how finance will scale up, including future targets, and a process to ensure finance is growing in line with mitigation ambition; • Support developing countries to accurately determine future economic and financial needs; • Track progress on pledges announced in Paris, including by agreeing on information to be included in regular reporting and developing clearer accounting processes; and • Ensure that developing countries become “investment ready” in order to ensure funds can be utilized effectively and efficiently in terms of making sure that the funds go to building resilience in the most vulnerable countries, groups and sectors. 216. To close the adaptation finance gap for the AKT Sub-region, national governments have to attract somewhere between 200-300% more funding above current levels.164 To achieve this the Governments of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan – together with key national stakeholders need to better understand the sources of this financing, in other words, not only which funding sources exist but also how these financial resources may be accessed. 217. Globally, there are an increasing number of funding sources available for climate change mitigation, adaptation and capacity building. There are 49 Multilateral, 14 Bilateral, and a number of private funds that variously provide grants, loans, loan guarantees, Carbon financing and co-financing options. For the water sector 23 funds are applicable, for the energy sector there are 48 potential funds. Some funds are specific for a region, so not all of them can be accessed by countries in the AKT Sub-region.
164 OECD (2015): “Climate finance in 2013-14 and the USD 100 billion goal”, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in collaboration with Climate Policy Initiative. http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/OECD-CPI-Climate-Finance-Report.htm
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VI. ADAPTATION OPTIONS & INVESTMENT PROPOSALS
A. Introduction 218. Adaptation is a response to global warming and climate change, that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming.165 It is generally acknowledged that even if emissions are stabilized over the next few decades, global warming and its effects will still last for many years, and that adaptation will be necessary to cope with the resulting changes in climate. 219. Adaptation is now essential for maintaining regional economic development in the AKT Sub-regional country grouping of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In order to protect and support economic development in these countries, climate change adaptation requires a range of new economic considerations and financial imperatives if national governments are to successfully avoid or mitigate the future costs of climate change. Whilst the international community has sought to support national efforts to understand adaptation needs and vulnerability in the form of global climate policy processes, and increase financing for adaptation efforts in developing countries – to date financial flows for adaptation into the AKT Sub-region are substantially less than the future cost of climate change as estimated in this study. 220. As detailed in Section IV, this study found that the annual climate change adaptation financing requirements for the AKT Sub-region as being around USD 547 million by 2050 (with a 90% probability range of USD 300-846). Given that the current level of multilateral and bilateral donor funding for climate change adaptation in the region, this represents an annual shortfall of around USD 295 – 377 million for adaptation funding. In this context it is estimated that funding to Central West Asia would need to increase between 200% and 315% per year to meet the future adaptation financing requirements by 2050.166 221. As the gap between the rate and impacts of climate change and efforts to mitigate that change widens, international emphasis is shifting from incremental adaptation toward pathways to transformational change and resilience.167 As highlighted in Section V, climate change in the AKT Sub-region has the potential to become a major disruptive factor in the achievement of economic growth and development in the region over the next fifty years and beyond, and hence the question of ‘how to adapt’ with become an increasingly important topic for governments to address at the national and regional levels. At the same time, whilst it is recognized that many international development agencies, NGO’s and climate funds have supported consultation and capacity building efforts in the context of strengthening national climate change and adaptation policies and raising awareness of climate risk in the AKT Sub- region countries - these efforts have often been relatively ineffective in terms of attracting international finance for adaptation or concrete investments for building resilience to the effects of climate change at national, regional or local levels. Hence, all three countries in the AKT Sub- region currently face substantial adaptation and capacity deficits – and this is reflected in the very low levels investment in adaptation.
165 IPCC (2014): Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 166 OECD (2015): “Climate finance in 2013-14 and the USD 100 billion goal”, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in collaboration with Climate Policy Initiative. http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/OECD-CPI-Climate-Finance-Report.htm 167 Wise RM, Fazey I, Stafford Smith M, Park S, Eakin H, Archer Van Garderen E, Campbell B (2014): Re- conceptualizing adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob Environ Chang 28:325–336.
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222. There is widespread recognition in all three countries of the need to find new approaches to investing in adaptation and resilience – and to ensure that the financing of adaptation solutions is relevant and effective in meeting the unique and immediate needs of each country. In this context, this chapter aims to raise awareness of the need to develop a range of new adaptation pathways, measures and opportunities in the AKT Sub-region to better prepare national governments to respond and adjust to the impacts of short- and long-term climatic variability for each country in the sub-region. 223. One of the main objectives of this study is to identify potential adaptation options and measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Accordingly, this section examines adaptation responses to climate change in the water and energy sectors that are potentially suitable for application within the AKT Sub-region in general terms, and includes a number of suggestions for policy, capacity and ‘low regret’ and ‘no regret’ options and measures that may be considered suitable for adoption and financing at the national levels. This section is also intended to provide information and guidance that will assist government agencies and key stakeholders to develop a portfolio of potential investment proposals suitable for future adaptation financing. 224. Adaptation options in this context may be thought of as the range of strategies and measures that are available for addressing the impacts of climate change, and include structural, institutional, or social measures. Typically, such measures focus on removing the risk source; reducing the likelihood or consequence of the risk; avoiding the risk; accommodating the risk where it is unavoidable by accepting some level of loss; or off-setting the risk against gains or benefits in some other area (for example through alternative livelihoods of higher levels of production efficiency). 225. Whilst the primary focus of this study is on ‘adapting’ to the actual or expected climate and its effects, it is also recognized that in seeking to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities it is also necessary to build resilience of both natural and human systems.168 This includes the availability of social resources to put adaptation into place to reduce exposure and sensitivity. Hence the following sections outline a number of streamlined ‘pathways for adaptation and resilience’ suitable for financing under a range of public and private sector financing arrangement and climate funds, that enhance and fast track the mobilization of badly needed investment and climate finance for adaptation in the region. It provides: (i) an overview of the impacts, opportunities and challenges posed by climate change to in each sector; (ii) identifies existing and emerging adaptive opportunities and measures; and (iii) provides a framework comprising a number of ‘pathways’ for each sector that are consistent with low emissions and climate resilient development. B. Responding to Climate Change 226. Preliminary evidence indicates that predicted warmer temperatures, accelerated glacial melt, reduced winter snow-cover and associated changes in river flows, and more frequent and intense drought and floods threaten the stable water supply for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption in the arid and semiarid region of the AKT Sub-region. More frequent droughts, catastrophic flooding from glacial lake outbursts, and landslides caused by destabilization of mountain slopes will lead to a progressive increase in economic losses and
168 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
90 | P a g e risk to the population, threaten the sustainability of livelihoods (especially in rural areas) and reduce the ability of communities to move out of poverty. 227. These impacts threaten to stall economic development in the AKT Sub-region, and endanger the health and safety of its growing population. The cumulative impacts of climate change over the next two or three decades have the potential to reverse much of the progress made towards attainment of the Millennium Development Goals 169 and the Sustainable Development Goals set to be achieved by 2030. Thus, from the point of view of regional GDP, sustainable livelihoods, food security and poverty the increasing incidence of drought and changes in river flows and seasonality represent very serious threats. C. Pathways for Adaptation & Resilience 228. The effects of climate change in the AKT Sub-region will foreseeably compound the existing pressures on water, land and energy resources in the region, and in turn reduce the capacity of resource managers and users at all levels to cope with, and adapt to the effects of climate change into the future. 229. In the AKT Sub-region countries, it is highly likely given the current level of resource degradation combined with low levels of adaptation capacity and climate resilience, that the social, economic, or ecological conditions at the national and regional levels may become so untenable under a new climate regime that incremental adaptations will be insufficient for survival or persistence of the current system and the system may need to transform into a fundamentally new system with new functions and structures. 230. For the purpose of this Study, we have adapted the framework used by the UNFCCC to assess the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions170 introduces a number of ‘adaptation pathways’ suitable for financing under a range of public and private sector financing arrangement and climate funds, that enhance and fast track the mobilization of badly needed investment and climate finance for adaptation in the region. Figure 34 highlights a number of ‘climate resilient pathways’ for investing in transformative innovation for adaptation in the AKT Sub-region.
169 Stern, N. (2007): The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 170 UNFCCC (2016): Aggregated effect of the intended nationally determined contributions: an update
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Figure 31. Potential Pathways for Adaptation and Resilience Investment in the AKT Sub-region
Source: Adapted from the UNFCCC update 2016
231. The framework was developed in response to the key findings from the impact chain analysis undertaken in Section 5 which examined the interactions between climate change effects and the impacts of climate change on the water and energy sectors for the AKT Sub- region. The findings from the impact chain analysis were presented in the Mid-Term and Final Workshops, and a where a range of existing and emerging climate change impacts and corresponding climate resilient adaptation measures identified by stakeholders for the water, agriculture and energy sectors. These measures have since been further elaborated and incorporated into the ‘Adaptation Options and Measures’ identified for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping. 232. The purpose of the Framework is to provide Government decision makers within the AKT Sub-region Country Grouping with a more systemic process for identifying adaptation options and measures, and assist decision makers to move from incremental adaptation toward transformation as societies try to cope with unprecedented and uncertain change. A key strength of this approach is that it explicitly considers the interdependencies between the long term ‘cost of climate change inaction’ and the need for transformative and innovate adaptation at a country and societal level and the practical realities and needs at the sectoral and community levels. 233. Combining transformational adaptation strategies with practical ‘low-regret and no- regret’ measures that strengthen a set of core resilience attributes (such as technology, learning, redundancy, flexibility, diversity and scale etc.) as part of a sector’s response to climate change can help to strengthen both its ‘adaptive capacity’ and its ‘resilience’ in terms of
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“the ability of a system or a sector to withstand, recover, adapt, and potentially transform in the face of stressors such as those caused by climate change impacts”.171 234. In this context, the Framework is meant to enable and strengthen the overall approach of National Governments and civil society to adaptation by allowing stakeholders (e.g. CSO’s, industry, decision-makers) to consider factors (e.g. long-term robustness, learning, flexibility, etc.) that may have been overlooked from more traditional (i.e. asset-based, short-term/reactive) approaches to adaptation. D. Adaptation Options and Measures for AKT Sub-region Country Grouping 1. Adaptation Opportunities and Measures for the Water Sector
235. The impacts of climate change that are most relevant to the water sector relate to changes in water availability and increased incidence of extreme weather events. As previously highlighted, these changes have the potential to have significant implications for both the agriculture and energy sectors in terms of economic and productivity losses from impacts on crop and livestock production, reduced hydropower generation capacity, changes in energy supply and demand, and increases in loss and damage associated with more frequent extreme events. 236. Table 29 over page provides a range of suggested adaptation options and measures to cope with and respond to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand and risks to water related assets and their performance. Adaptations to changed water availability include: managing the impacts of reduced demand, including those arising directly from climate change and those resulting from government related initiatives; managing changing demand patterns; and investing in system upgrades and renewal. 237. Suggested responses to increased rainfall intensity and extreme events primarily focus on: flood control and mitigation interventions to reduce damage and protect property, housing & infrastructure; the introduction of integrated watershed management (IWSM) for erosion control and catchment protection; and improved disaster risk reduction management to reduce risk of erosion landslides, mudslides and flood damage to property, housing & infrastructure.
171 Ospina A.V and Heeks R. (2010): Linking ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework for e- Resilience and e•Adaptation. Centre for Development Informatics Institute for Development Policy and Management.
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Table 19. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Water Sector in the AKT Sub-region
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Source: Adapted from the UNFCCC (2016): Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions: an update and the INDCs Database
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2. Adaptation Opportunities & Measures for the Agriculture Sector
238. Agriculture is perhaps the most vulnerable economic sector to climate change in the AKT Sub-region, contributing collectively to between 21-28% to GDP in all countries (Afghanistan 28%, Kyrgyzstan 21% and 25%Tajikistan), and with a high percentage of the population being reliant on the sector for their livelihoods (85% Afghanistan, 20% Kyrgyzstan and 42% in Tajikistan). It is also the largest water-using industry in the AKT Sub-region and typically accounts for around two thirds of total water use each year.172 239. The impacts of climate change that are most relevant to the agriculture sector are those activities that are vulnerable to: changes in water availability for irrigated agricultural and pasture lands; changes in temperatures, heat stress and drought conditions, which can affect the viability of dryland agriculture and livestock production systems; and the increase incidence of extreme weather events on rural infrastructure. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall variability and reduce runoff in all of the key agro-ecological zones in the AKT Sub- region. Rising temperatures will increase stresses on crops and require more water. There are two broad types of agricultural production in the AKT Sub-region: • Irrigated agriculture: involving the abstraction of surface water (or groundwater) to supplement rainfall to grow crops. Examples include irrigated crops, pasture and horticulture (fruits and nuts, vegetables); and • Dryland agriculture: which largely relies on rainfall. Examples include livestock (cattle, goats and sheep) and wheat production. 240. In Afghanistan about 80% of the total agricultural area is dryland rain fed and climate change may result in these lands being no longer viable.173 In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where almost all agriculture is irrigated, significantly greater water will be required for irrigation at a time when water resources are declining. The sector accounts for between 17% and 27% of GDP, and where 64% to 74% of the population live in rural areas, climate change is likely to have a significant and widespread effect.174 241. Changes in temperature, annual precipitation and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather will have significant deleterious impacts on crop yields in the AKT Sub-region. For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal temperature for growth and reproduction. In some areas, warming may benefit the types of crops that are typically planted there such as cotton or wheat. However, if warming exceeds a crop's optimum temperature, yields may decline, which may in turn adversely affect a significant proportion of the rural population in CWA. This may be offset to some degree by a longer growing season and greater CO2 availability which may improve crop productivity – however this is dependent on all the other climate fundamentals such as water, temperature etc. being suitable. 242. Changes in climate could also affect livestock both directly and indirectly. Heat waves, which are projected to increase under climate change, could directly threaten livestock in terms of drought, heat stress and the prevalence of parasites and diseases that affect livestock. Over time, heat stress will most likely increase vulnerability to pests and diseases, reduce fertility, and reduce nutrition and milk production.
172 ADB (2016): Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia’s Potential Growth 173 ibid 174 ibid
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243. It is highly likely that large areas of semi-arid rangelands in the AKT Sub-region will experience longer, more intense droughts, resulting in increased soil erosion and land degradation. Dealing with the combined effects of land degradation, overgrazing and drought could become a challenge in areas where summer temperatures are projected to increase and precipitation is projected to decrease. 244. Table 30 provides a range of suggested adaptation options and measures to cope with and respond to: the impacts of changes in water availability for irrigated agricultural and pasture lands; changes in temperatures, heat stress and drought conditions, which can affect the viability of dryland agriculture and livestock production systems; and the increase incidence of extreme weather events on rural infrastructure. 245. Adaptations to changed water availability primarily relate to the introduction and/or or transition to Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) techniques and technologies such as: the introduction of high yielding drought resilient crop varieties; adjusting the selection of planting dates (e.g., earlier planting and harvesting dates to avoid arid late-summer conditions); employing conservation tillage methods to increase water infiltration and maintain soil moisture; and the introduction of efficient irrigation systems and/or advanced irrigation systems. 246. Among the most cost-effective ways of reducing the magnitude of impacts resulting from changes in water availability are measures to improve the management of forests and agricultural land. Suggested responses to increased rainfall intensity and extreme events primarily focus on forest protection & restoration, agro-forestry and community forestry to alleviate flooding, erosion and land degradation. It is envisaged that the introduction of sustainable forest management practices and sustainable agro-forestry could reduce climate change vulnerability, enhance income generation from cash crops (fruits, nuts, medicines, fuel, timber, and fodder) and provide opportunities for improvements in value chain processing and marketing of agro-forestry products.
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Table 20. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Agriculture Sector in the AKT Sub- region
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Source: Adapted from the UNFCCC (2016): Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions: an update and the INDCs Database 247. Whilst the associated costs and benefits of these approaches need to be assessed for the AKT Sub-region and at ‘regional farming systems’ levels, ultimately the response of farmers will depend on factors such as their debt levels, access to finance, position in the farm investment and development cycle, skills and ability to change farming techniques or modify their crop mix. However, many of the adverse impacts could be reduced improving climate change education and extension services to agricultural producers and enabling the delivery of applied research and new technology through the establish information hubs for to help farmers make decisions about sustainable crop production and livestock management practices – or the creation or enhancement of existing producer networks to facilitate the rapid transfer and adoption of new knowledge and technologies. Such measures could go a long way to facilitate ‘transformational’ adaptation in agriculture in the AKT Sub-region. 3. Adaptation Opportunities & Measures for the Energy Sector
248. Climate change directly impacts both the demand and supply-side of energy production. Energy systems and equipment in the AKT Sub-region region are already subject to substantial threats from climate related natural hazards, such as flooding, landslide, mudflows etc. Climate change is forecast to have short- and long-term effects on natural variables in the AKT Sub- region, including more variable rainfall patterns, more frequent and intense storms, more heatwaves, and a gradual increase in average temperatures. These potential changes pose a number of risks to the electricity generation sector. Broadly, the risks arise from: • Changes in water availability and variability for electricity generators; • Increases in temperature will likely change how much energy is consumed, as well influence the ability to produce and deliver electricity reliably, especially in the hydropower sector; and • Changes in precipitation, and the frequency and severity of extreme events will likely affect how much energy is produced, delivered, and consumed at the regional and national levels. 249. Climate change will also indirectly impact many segments of the energy sector, such as changes in demand for electricity – which in turn can affect energy distribution and consequently energy users. These changes are also projected to affect individual nation’s demand for energy and its ability to access, produce, and distribute energy. Energy transmission, distribution and transfer systems will be adversely affected. Energy systems and equipment in the region are already subject to substantial threats from climate related natural hazards, such as flooding,
99 | P a g e landslide, mudflows etc. – and this is likely to increase with increasing frequency of extreme events and climate related natural disasters. 250. Given the importance of energy in the economy and in the promotion of economic development in all three countries, secure water supplies are essential for electricity generation in the region for hydropower generation and security of power. Coal and gas-fired power stations, along with other renewable energy sources (biomass, wind, solar, etc.), accounts for only a small percentage of the electricity generation capacity. 251. Key issues are how individual countries adapt to these changes and what implications that may have for the use and management of water and the supply of water-related services in the AKT Sub-region. The specific adaptation responses made by individual countries will ultimately depend on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action and would require case-by-case assessment – which is beyond the scope of this Study. However, Table 31 provides a range of suggested adaptation options and measures to cope with and respond to: the impacts of changes in water availability and security; increases in temperature influencing demand for electricity; and the increase on risks to assets and their performance resulting from changes in precipitation and the frequency and severity of extreme events.
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Table 21. Sector specific low-regret adaptation options and measures for the Energy Sector in the AKT Sub-region
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Source: Adapted from the UNFCCC (2016): Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions: an update and the INDCs Database 252. Adaptations to changed water availability primarily relate to improvements in demand side efficiency, use & pricing and supply side improvements in energy security, generation capacity to accommodate declining river flows and increasing demand. It is suggested that the most cost effective means of adapting to climate change in the AKT Sub-region in the short to medium terms is to focus on: reducing consumer demand through the promotion of energy efficient buildings to reduce energy consumption through improvements in building design, insulation and fuel efficient heating and cooking systems; improving demand side efficiency, use & pricing through the adoption of the most up-to-date water conservation technologies and water-efficient practices and use alternative water supplies whenever possible; replacing or retrofitting the building stock over time with resource-efficient, climate-adaptive buildings that are energy and water efficient; and improving energy supply side management through the adoption and use of less water-intensive renewable energy sources and diversification of the fuel-energy balance through the use of local types of fuel and renewable energy sources. 253. While many energy efficiency measures are targeted at households, public buildings and transport, some may affect the agricultural sector. In particular, investing in energy-efficient equipment and technologies, processes and products in the agriculture may reduce energy demand and offset the impact of higher energy prices associated with climate change into the future. In general, whilst energy it is understood that efficiency measures at the individual household or factory level are likely to have very limited impact on energy demand and use – with transformational change across community and industry at scale energy efficiency measures are probably the most cost effective of reducing energy use at the national and regional levels in the AKT Sub-region.
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254. Over the medium to long term though, responding to the dual challenges of population growth and development – and the effects of climate change will necessitate improvements in the both the operating efficiency and hydro-generation capacity in response to reduced flows and changes in seasonality 255. Suggested responses to increased rainfall intensity and extreme events primarily focus on enhancing the climate resilience of energy generation facilities and infrastructure and improved siting and relocation of exposed transmission/distribution systems assets from extreme events. The incidence of extreme weather is projected to increase under climate change. It may pose risks to electricity generation and related assets and their ability to maintain supply. For example, projected increases in average temperatures and the incidence of extreme weather (such as increased floods and storms) might result in a higher frequency of plant shutdowns. There are also significant risks to electricity networks from the expected increase in numbers of floods, landslides and mudslides. Adaptation measures may include: vulnerability assessments of energy-system assets at risk of climate impacts to reduce risks to energy production facilities and Infrastructure; improvements in the reliability of critical energy infrastructure and equipment; improved standards for power lines which addresses line losses which reduces both capacity and energy requirements on the electricity system; improved siting of energy infrastructure and production facilities vulnerable to potential climate impacts including flooding, landslides, drought and water scarcity; setting aside floodplain land to accommodate the safe conveyance of higher flood heights in the future; relocation or removal of infrastructure from high risk areas (where possible); and the upgrading of flood-control structures (e.g., levees, flood walls) that protect existing critical infrastructure. E. Project Investment Proposals 1. Project Identification
256. As previously mentioned, the aim of this study is to assess the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. This included ‘identifying priority investments for climate resilience and low-carbon development’ and supporting country ‘readiness’ for leveraging public and private sector finance to address prioritized adaptation (and mitigation) investment needs of Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. 257. Working Groups were established for each country to support the Cardo National Project Team to identify and evaluate potential investment project proposals for adaptation for the water and energy resource sectors. The aim of establishing the Working Groups was to establish a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral working group to ensure that all the relevant public and private sector organizations, such as government ministries and departments, the academic and research institution and NGOs were able to participate in the process. The Working Groups were tasked with: facilitating stakeholder participation; identifying country specific climate change priorities, policies, strategies and project proposals for adapting to climate change for Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic; and contributing to other cross sector country or regional aspects of the study relating to climate change adaptation and resilience. 258. Participation in the Working Groups was entirely voluntary, and membership comprised representatives from government policy makers, public bodies, relevant international organizations, NGOs, research institutions and representatives from civil society, sector associations and representative bodies. Whilst the Working Groups functioned effectively in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in Afghanistan the decision was made by the Afghan Government to dissolve the Working Group on the basis that it was not functioning as envisaged. This decision was made independently of the international consulting team.
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2. Evaluation and Ranking of Project Investment Proposals
259. For this Study we used for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) for evaluation and ranking project investment proposals. MCA is an effective alternative for the assessment of adaptation options when only partial data is available, or where the monetary benefit or cost effectiveness are difficult to quantify. 260. MCA essentially involves defining a framework to integrate different ‘evaluation criteria’ into a quantitative analysis without assigning monetary values to all factors. This allows for us to incorporate important climate change adaptation and mitigation criteria into the analysis, together with socio-economic and environmental costs and benefits. 261. MCA also allows for direct stakeholder engagement by allowing the beneficiaries of the adaptation options to be involved in the process, which is crucial for creating ownership and subsequent implementation of the adaptation measures. During the Mid-Term Workshop key stakeholders and Working Group members were asked to identify potential future climate change impacts and their implicit uncertainties at the country level for the water and energy sectors, and encouraged to develop a range of potential adaptation options and measures (including no-regret and low-regret options) suitable for incorporation into project investment proposals for consideration under this project. 262. The project investment proposals were evaluated and given a rating of between 1 and 5 (with 1 being poor and 5 being excellent) by members of the international team and discussed in workshops with representatives of each of the countries in accordance with their technical responsiveness to the impacts of climate change. These specifically relate to the potential range of adaptation options and measures incorporated in the project, and included the following ‘evaluation criteria’ and ‘ranking factors’ outlined in Table 32 over page. The result of the MCA is presented per country in Appendix 1. The percentages mentioned in the project summaries in Appendix 2 are the points gained per criterion as compared to the maximum possible number of points. 263. Whilst this list of ‘evaluation criteria’ was developed based on criteria developed by the Evaluation Cooperation Group for the World Bank group, ADB and EIB, it is by no means comprehensive and has some limitations. In particular, cost benefit and cost-effectiveness criteria have been omitted primarily because the benefits of soft adaptation interventions at the individual project level are difficult to predict and/or quantify in meaningful terms, and a set of universal ‘cost effectiveness’ indicators for adaptation has yet to be agreed upon by the international community. However, in general the criteria as outlined are consistent with the project selection criteria of the main climate adaptation funs – and align closely with the ‘key performance areas’ identified as being important for the selection of project proposals under the Green Climate Fund.
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Table 22. MCA Evaluation Criteria
1. Priority: - Potential for addressing national priorities for adaptation, resilience and vulnerabilities and compatibility with the relevant country adaptation and development policies, priorities and strategies. 1.1. Addresses significant identified climate change impacts. 1.2. Addresses problems of national and/or regional importance. 1.3. In line with national and or regional policies and priorities. 2. Benefit: - Potential to generate multiple-benefits including adaptation and resilience benefits, emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potentials and socio-economic benefits such as poverty alleviation, gender, etc. 2.1. Potential for generating Adaptation Benefits (i.e. reducing vulnerability to current and future climate risks). 2.2. Potential for generating mitigation co-benefits (emissions reductions and carbon sequestration). 2.3. Reduces poverty and improves economic capacity and opportunity. 3. Effectiveness: - The extent to which the objectives of the project are expected to be achieved and potential for reducing climate vulnerability and identified hazard risks - and the capacity to reduce and/or avoid the future costs of climate change impacts. 3.1. Directly targets improving climate resilience at local and/or national scales. 3.2. Potential for reducing climate vulnerability and identified hazard risks. 3.3. Adoption of ‘no regret or low regret options’ for adaptation. 4. Sustainability: - Whether the project is sustainable and beneficial under various climate change futures – and are there socio-cultural, environmental or financial risks that might threaten the long term sustainability of the project. 4.1. Technical and financial sustainability after project implementation. 4.2. Builds directly or indirectly capacity of public and private sector agencies. 4.3. Flexible and adaptable to changing environmental and socio-economic conditions. 4.4. Environmentally sound and taking account of likely changes in the natural and socio- economic environments. 4.5. Development oriented and multi sectoral. 4.6. Replicable and scalable. 5. Country Support: - Demonstrated socio-political support for the project. 5.1. Proposal demonstrates a high level of development. 5.2. Proposal demonstrates a high level of country socio-political and community support.
Source: Adapted from Criteria developed by Evaluation Cooperation Group for the World Bank group, ADB and EIB
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3. Project Proposal Shortlist
264. The ADB are making good progress in private sector participation within its portfolio for the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), leveraging concessional public funds to mobilize private sector investments for climate action. Aside from the private sector projects within country Investment Plans, ADB through the Dedicated Private Sector Programs are channeling over $100 million directly into sectoral investments in climate change mitigation and implementing an adaptation project under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience. 265. ADB is working closely with its developing member countries to help them reduce carbon emissions while also making their economies more resilient to future climate change. Throughout Asia, ADB is integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation into all its development activities, and has made climate change a core operational area in its long-term strategic framework for 2008–2020 (Strategy 2020). 175 ADB has five strategic priorities: (i) Expand the use of clean and renewable energy; (ii) Encourage sustainable transport and urban development; (iii) Manage land use and forests for carbon sequestration; (iv) Promote climate- resilient development, especially in water-dependent sectors; and (v) Strengthen policies, governance, and capacity. ADB is also strengthening its collaboration with development partners to mobilize further resources for the environment, which include the Clean Energy Financing Partnership Facility, the Water Financing Partnership Facility, Climate Investment Funds and the Green Climate Fund. 266. As previously highlighted, one of the outcomes from this Study was to ‘identifying priority investments for climate resilient and low-carbon development and support country ‘readiness’ for leveraging public and private sector finance to address prioritized adaptation (and mitigation) investment needs. With the assistance of the National Working Groups, we have identified and shortlisted a portfolio of water, agriculture, energy and institutional project proposals to address climate change risk management and adaptation in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan that ADB may consider for financing through its climate adaptation funding mechanisms. Over the period from June 2015 to the end of June 2016, key stakeholders and Working Group members developed a total of 86 project investment proposals: 29 from Kyrgyzstan, 44 from Tajikistan and 13 from Afghanistan. Overall, 20 project proposals were received from the water sector, 33 from the agriculture sector, 20 from the energy sector; and 13 were institutional projects, with some of these projects being cross-sectoral in nature. Full lists of project investment proposals per country, with MCA ratings is provided in Appendix 1. 267. Table 33 provides a summary of the top 15 shortlisted proposals received for the AKT Sub-region. For further information on these proposals, a summary of the key features of the shortlisted projects is provided in Appendix 2. It should be noted however, that whilst a small number of the proposals were well developed and consistent with achieving regional and national level priorities and outcomes – the majority of project investment proposals require substantial additional work to bring them up to a CIF or GCF Concept Note standard suitable for further consideration. This is indicated in by the scores for criterion “Proposal demonstrates a high level of development”.
175 ADB (2008) Strategy 2020, The Long-Term Strategic Framework of the Asian Development Bank 2008-2020
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Table 23. Project Investment Proposal Shortlist (based on analysis all of the Essential Criteria)
Project
Ranking Country Priority Benefit Effectiveness Sustainability Country Support OverallRating
1/15 Koh-e Baba poverty and climate action AFG 13 10 14 28 9 74 2/15 Resilience of rural communities in AFG 13 12 14 26 8 73 pistachio belt 3/15 Energy efficient households TAJ 12 12 11 27 10 72 4/15 Climate resilient livelihood & diversification TAJ 12 12 12 25 10 71 4/15 Yakhsu river basin Integrated Water TAJ 12 10 14 25 10 71 Management 6/15 Climate change risk management KYR 12 9 14 27 7 69 embedded in IWM 6/15 Energy efficient households KYR 12 12 11 27 7 69 6/15 Improving the energy efficiency of KYR 12 12 11 27 7 69 apartments 6/15 Adaptation to water stress in agriculture KYR 12 12 11 25 9 69 10/15 Forestry Institutions & Restoration AFG 14 11 15 21 7 68 11/15 Resilient livelihoods and economic KYR 12 10 13 25 6 66 diversification 12/15 Joint Forest Management TAJ 11 12 13 22 7 65 12/15 Climate monitoring and early warning KYR 14 10 14 19 8 65 system 12/15 Development of beekeeping TAJ 12 9 12 24 8 65 12/15 Ghoja Ghar irrigation and hydropower AFG 15 11 12 20 7 65
268. It is also worth noting that there were a number of project proposals from each country that scored highly with regard to their potential for addressing national priorities for adaptation (i.e. Priority), and their potential to generate multiple-benefits that were let down by poor proposal preparation. In this context there are a number of project investment proposals that could be considered for future development and elaboration including: • Khisht Pul Dam irrigation, and Safed Ab irrigation and hydropower proposals in Afghanistan; • Adaptive agricultural technologies, Climate change adaption in response to droughts, Agricultural extension system, Integrated methods for pest control, Integrated horticulture & forestry in Khatlon region proposals in Tajikistan; and • Sustainable use of water resources in Talas region, Water supply rehabilitation & awareness campaigns, and Hydrometeorology modernization proposals in Kyrgyzstan.
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269. In addition to this, there were a number of projects that were either focused on research or institutional capacity development such as the Central water quality laboratory rehabilitation (Tajikistan), the Climate Research Center and the Monitoring system for snow and ice surface (Afghanistan) that, whilst clearly having merit – did not score highly in terms of their ability to respond directly to climate change needs in identified in the study. 270. Lastly it is worth noting that there were numerous project investment proposals that were submitted that were almost entirely climate mitigation projects, and whilst these projects were obviously good projects – they were either considered to be suitable for adaptation funding, or they scored very lowly in terms of their potential for addressing national priorities for adaptation or their potential to generate adaptation benefits.
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APPENDIX 1: MCA PROJECT EVALUATION RANKINGS
Kyrgyzstan
Project Investment Proposal Priority Benefit Effectiveness Sustainability Country
Support
-
egret
economic economic
-
Overall Ranking
political and community and political
-
economic environments economic
-
s significant identified climate identified ssignificant
vironmentally sound and taking taking andsound vironmentally
nefits
Addresse changeimpacts. and/or ofAddresses problems national importanceregional Adaptation Potentialgenerating for Benefits co mitigation Potentialgenerating for be economic improves Reducesand poverty capacityopportunity and climate to Effectivenessadaptation in climate improving changeand/or resilience vulnerability climate Potentialreducing for risks andhazard identified low Adoption r regret or‘no of adaptation options’for sustainabilityafterTechnical financial and project implementation toFlexiblechanging adaptable and socio environmental and conditions En natural changes the account in of likely socioand multiandorientedDevelopmentsectoral Replicablescalable and level of high Proposala demonstrates sociocountry support
In line with national and orregional Innational line and with policiespriorities. and capacity Buildsof or indirectly directly sectorpublicagencies private and level of high Proposala demonstrates development
1 Modernization of Lebedinovskaya 86 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 hydro-power plant 2 Climate change risk management 6 5 3 4 4 1 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 2 embedded in IWM 3 Adaptation to water stress in 6 5 3 4 5 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 agriculture 4 Resilient livelihoods and economic 12 5 3 4 5 1 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 3 4 5 4 2 diversification 5 Scaling up solar energy 45 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 2 technologies 6 SHPP Turgen & Jergez in Ak-Suu 45 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 district 7 SHPP Jirgalan & Boz-Uchuk in 45 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 Ak-Suu district
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8 SHPP Chunkurchak & Kegeti & 45 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 Jardi-Kaindi in Chui 9 SHPP Tosor1 & 2, K. Jargilchak & 45 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 C. Jargilchak in Jeti-Oguz 10 Sustainable use of water 26 5 3 4 4 1 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 2 resources in Talas region 11 Water supply rehabilitation & 26 5 3 4 5 1 3 4 3 4 3 5 4 3 4 5 4 2 awareness campaigns 12 Balykchy irrigation, forestry & 37 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 2 livelihoods 13 Hydrometeorology modernization 29 5 4 5 5 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 2 14 Energy efficient households 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 2 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 2 15 Karakulskaya small hydro-power 45 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 plant 16 Reduction of glacier lake 54 4 4 4 4 1 2 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 1 4 2 2 outbursts in Tien-Shan 17 Irrigation equipment production 56 3 4 4 3 1 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 3 5 18 Land development & hydro-power 56 3 4 4 4 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 3 5 in Jeti-Oguz 19 Irrigated agriculture and water 37 4 4 4 5 1 3 4 4 5 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 2 resources management 20 Glaciers monitoring in Tien-Shan 65 4 4 3 5 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 & Pamir-Alay 21 Improving the energy efficiency of 6 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 2 apartments 22 Climate monitoring networks and 13 5 4 5 5 1 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 5 early warning system 23 Centralized steam for CO2 77 5 2 3 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 1 3 2 1 1 5 emission reduction 24 Use of treated municipal sewage 43 4 1 3 3 1 3 4 4 5 4 2 3 4 4 5 2 5 for irrigation 25 Leasing company for agricultural 67 1 4 4 1 1 4 2 1 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 1 5 equipment and irrigation
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26 Energy efficient schools 16 3 3 4 5 3 3 4 2 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 1 5 27 Network of reservoirs for water 80 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 3 1 5 security in Chui Valley 28 Partial decentralization of heating 62 4 3 4 5 3 1 3 2 4 5 1 1 5 1 4 1 5 system 29 Juuku river hydro-power and 34 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 5 irrigation
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Tajikistan
Project Investment Proposal Priority Benefit Effectiveness Sustainability Country
Support
-
economic economic
agencies
-
le
ies.
Overall Ranking
political and community and political
-
reducing climate vulnerability climate reducing
economic environments economic
-
Addresses significant identified climate identified Addressessignificant changeimpacts. and/or ofAddresses problems national importanceregional Adaptation Potentialgenerating for Benefits co mitigation Potentialgenerating for benefits economic improves Reducesand poverty capacityopportunity and climate to Effectivenessadaptation in climate improving changeand/or resilience Potentialfor risks andhazard identified low Adoption regret regret or‘no of adaptation options’for sustainabilityafterTechnical financial and project implementation toFlexiblechanging adaptable and socio environmental and conditions taking andEnvironmentallysound natural changes the account in of likely socioand multiandorientedDevelopmentsectoral Replicablescalab and level of high Proposala demonstrates sociocountry support
In line with national and orregional Innational line and with policiespriorit and capacity Buildsof or indirectly directly sectorpublic private and level of high Proposala demonstrates development
1 Warehouses for agricultural 73 1 4 4 1 1 4 2 1 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 1 1 products 2 Information centers for agriculture 85 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 4 2 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 Agri-products quality control 77 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 5 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 5 4 Advanced agricultural production 73 2 4 4 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 1 2 technologies 5 Development of high income 73 2 4 4 1 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 1 2 agricultural crops 6 Development of seeds for climate 45 2 4 4 4 1 4 3 4 5 2 3 3 3 4 4 1 5 change 7 Public awareness raising for 34 3 4 4 3 1 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 1 2 climate change 8 Enhancement of feedstock 37 3 4 4 3 1 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 4 5 4 1 2 9 Adaptive agricultural technologies 17 5 5 4 3 1 5 5 3 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 1 3
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10 Promotion of efficient land use 56 3 4 3 3 1 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 1 5 11 Integrated methods for pest 17 4 4 4 5 1 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 2 control 12 Agro-technical methods against 64 2 4 4 2 1 5 2 3 2 3 2 3 4 3 4 1 5 salinization 13 Agricultural Guarantee Fund 37 4 4 4 2 1 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 1 2 14 Greenhouse complex 34 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 development 15 Enhancement of resilience of agri- 45 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 producers 16 Agricultural extension system 17 4 4 4 5 2 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 17 Development of beekeeping 13 4 4 4 4 1 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 3 5 18 Database and information system 32 5 4 4 5 1 2 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 3 2 for water sector 19 Baldjuvan water supply system 32 4 4 4 3 1 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 rehabilitation 20 Central water quality laboratory 26 4 4 4 4 1 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 4 4 3 1 rehabilitation 21 Khovaling water supply system 37 4 4 4 3 1 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 4 2 2 rehabilitation 22 Kulob sewage system 37 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 4 4 2 1 rehabilitation 23 N. Khusrav water supply system 80 2 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 4 2 1 rehabilitation 24 Sovet water supply system 80 2 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 4 2 1 rehabilitation 25 Vahdat water supply system 80 2 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 4 2 1 rehabilitation 26 Improvement of hydro- 70 3 3 3 5 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 meteorological data base 27 Assessment of needs for water 76 3 3 3 5 1 2 3 3 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 storage 28 Scientific surveys on glaciers 65 4 4 3 5 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2
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29 Monitoring system for snow and 63 4 4 3 4 1 2 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 5 ice surface 30 Emergency administration, 70 4 4 3 3 1 2 4 5 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 training and storage facilities 31 Standards on risks management 70 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 5 for drinking water 32 Physiological norms of food 77 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 consumption 33 Calculation of damage caused by 69 4 3 4 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 3 1 2 diseases 34 Climate change adaption in 17 4 3 4 5 2 3 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 4 2 4 response to draughts 35 Green energy for rural 23 4 3 4 5 5 3 3 2 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 2 4 communities 36 Climate resilient livelihood & 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 5 5 diversification 37 Yakhsu River Basin Integrated 4 5 3 4 5 1 4 4 5 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 5 5 Water Management 38 Energy efficient households 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 39 Reforestation 23 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 1 5 40 Joint Forest Management 13 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 2 41 Integrated horticulture & forestry 29 4 3 4 5 2 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 4 5 5 3 3 in Khatlon region 42 Modeling quantity and quality 80 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 5 3 1 1 5 1 5 2 5 change of rivers 43 Adapted agro-technologies for 54 3 5 4 3 1 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 4 5 4 1 3 Dangara and Kulyab zones 44 SHPP Dombrachi & irrigation 43 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 3
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Afghanistan
Project Investment Proposal Priority Benefit Effectiveness Sustainability Country
Support
-
economic economic
-
Overall Ranking
financial sustainabilityafter financial
political and community and political
-
cts.
kely changes in the natural changes the in kely
economic environments economic
-
t
Addresses significant identified climate identified Addressessignificant changeimpa and/or ofAddresses problems national importanceregional Adaptation Potentialgenerating for Benefits co mitigation Potentialgenerating for benefits economic improves Reducesand poverty capacityopportunity and climate to Effectivenessadaptation in climate improving changeand/or resilience vulnerability climate Potentialreducing for risks andhazard identified low Adoption regret regret or‘no of adaptation options’for Technical and project implementation toFlexiblechanging adaptable and socio environmental and conditions taking andEnvironmentallysound accountof li socioand multiandorientedDevelopmentsectoral Replicablescalable and level of high Proposala demonstrates sociocountry suppor
In line with national and orregional Innational line and with policiespriorities. and capacity Buildsof or indirectly directly sectorpublicagencies private and level of high Proposala demonstrates development
1 Ghoja Ghar irrigation and 12 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 5 hydropower
2 Khisht Pul Dam irrigation 17 5 5 5 3 2 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 5
3 Safed Ab irrigation and 23 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 3 hydropower
4 Cleaning of sewerage system for 56 2 4 4 3 1 3 3 3 5 3 2 4 5 5 1 3 3 Kabul river
5 Kole-e-Hashmat Khan ecosystem 29 4 2 4 3 2 4 4 3 5 4 4 3 5 4 1 4 5 rehabilitation
6 Community based pistachio and 56 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 3 3 pine nut forests
7 Greenery improvement of urban 45 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 3 5 2 3 3 4 3 3 5 5 ecosystem
8 Resilience of rural communities in 2 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 3 5 pistachio belt
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9 Koh-e Baba poverty and climate 1 3 5 5 5 1 4 5 4 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 action
10 Solar lantern and home systems 67 1 2 3 5 3 2 1 1 5 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 2
11 Forestry Institutions & Restoration 10 5 5 4 5 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3
12 Herat solar power plant 17 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 1 5 4 4 1 4 5 1 2 5
13 Climate Research Center 56 5 3 4 5 3 1 4 3 4 3 2 2 5 3 1 1 5
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APPENDIX 2: TOP 15 SHORTLISTED PROJECT INVESTMENT PROPOSALS
Project Name: Koh-e Baba Poverty and Climate Action Mountain signage and rest-stations. No details were provided by the Conservation Initiative proponents on the introduction of new activities. Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Agriculture Sector Project Objective/s: Social, Economic, Environment: 1. Large scale whole landscape planning (green spaces). ✓ Improved access to ecosystem services, clean water, food 2. Creation of low impact visitor’s areas. security and health Environmental education of local 3. Creating livelihoods and capacity building opportunities to communities. the low community. ✓ Developed healthy sustainable livelihoods especially in key 4. Conservation and environmental education. ecological regions. Project Costs: USD 5,570,900 ✓ Improved watershed management and conservation of protected zones. Proposed Timeframe: 48 months Project Concept / Investment Opportunity: Location / Area: Communities living at high altitudes are vulnerable and under- Koh-e Baba Mountains, Central Highlands, Bamyan (Sadberg, represented in regional economic development plans. Koh-e Baba Ahangaran, Sumara, Jawzari, Khushkak, Jawkar, Qazan, has a high environmental value and economic potential in Burghasun, Kamati Villages) Afghanistan. Project Background Justification: The project proposes the development of community ecotourism. The Government of Afghanistan (MEW, MRRD, AMA, ANDMA, The protection of natural heritage, karstic caves and landscaping MAIL, NEPA) is working to develop Community Based Natural allows creation of sustainable livelihoods and capacity building Resource Management and Protected Areas in the rural areas of opportunities for surrounding communities. Afghanistan. Part of the approach involves field testing in the Koh-e The area is in need of proper conservation planning and Baba mountain ranges of Central Highlands. A number of other management. It is planned to improve and develop necessary simple smaller NGOs are also working in the area. UNEP is working closely infrastructure, develop management capacity, involve communities, with the European Commission (EC) to prepare the upper catchment upgrade environmental education, create livelihoods and capacity areas as demonstration sites for the national watershed building opportunities to the low communities. management program. Aga Khan Ecotourism project is also active The project will initiate site planning and design activities with 18 here. ANDMA disaster risk reduction and management projects for local communities for low impact visitors’ area and interpretative vulnerable communities in Afghan mountain areas are involved
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through exchange and sharing of ideas. 1. Priority: 87% Adaptation Options & Measures: 2. Benefit: 67% Potential options & measures for reducing vulnerability and/or building climate resiliency: 3. Effectiveness: 93% ✓ Draw up climate adaptation and conservation site plans; 4. Sustainability: 93% landscape site analysis and restoration plans for village conservation areas as well as the trailheads and trail system. 5. Country 90% EssentialCriteria Support:
✓ Create community-managed green space in 22 villages, with community conservation shura, providing education to the Project Ranking: 1 of 86 local community as well as visitors on ecosystem services, flora and fauna conservation in this high ecological value Financing Options: ADB grant USD 3,720,600 and UNDP & local watershed flowing from the Koh-e Baba mountain range. partners co-financing USD 1,850,300 Include local fruit tree varieties and natural plants in this Value Added: component. ✓ Partnerships with Conservation Organization for Afghan ✓ Increase access for remote villages to markets and health, Mountain Areas and local community partners. education services. ✓ Leverage: UNDP co-financing. ✓ implementation based on learning from early stages of implementation, so as to ensure that objectives are achieved Project Beneficiaries: through regular monitoring and local engagement. Direct beneficiaries: ✓ Organize training sessions for communities, staff of ✓ 4,000 households in the high mountain communities of Koh- government MEW, MAIL and NEPA and other provincial e Baba, including at least 30% of the will be female, women partners for conservation education and management of and girls small-scale conservation areas in the mountains of Bamyan. ✓ Government staff (MAIL – Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation ✓ Set up partnerships with mountain areas in the region and in and livestock), MRRD (Ministry of Rural rehabilitation and region through exchange visits and learning activities. Development), AMA (Afghanistan microfinance organization, No details were provided by the proponents on the introduction of ANDMA (Afghanistan National Disaster Management new activities. Authority), NEPA (National environmental protection agency). Potential Transformative Adaptation: Indirect beneficiaries (those who benefit as a result of improvements A key demonstration site for sustainable development, small made to the direct beneficiaries): enterprise creation and partnerships for peace building in this ✓ Remote villagers who will get access to health and education country. services
✓ Next generation (children) will be aware of importance of the area for their living and caring it ✓ Increasing the capacity of rural Afghanistan to develop Evaluation: healthy sustainable livelihoods especially in key ecological regions contributes to a stable Afghanistan through improved
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access to ecosystem services, clean water, food security UNEP decided that initiating these early action protected areas and health activities was essential for bringing communities together in useful ✓ Increased participation of the Afghan and international and rapid action work. With rapid increase in population, there needs society in travel to regions and interaction with groups gives to be a concerted effort for large-scale whole landscape planning more opportunity for diverse interaction and sharing of a backed up by micro projects, which UNEP is providing at the macro common natural heritage. scale together with MAIL and NEPA and the Governors Offices. ✓ Provision of labor and skills development in mountain Has the project been approved by the concerned authority? communities insures these communities against disaster and YES environmental shock, as well as reduces future risk of these Other: shocks. Monitoring and evaluation Implementation Arrangements: The UNEP Office, MEW, and MAIL, DOWA and NEPA staff from Lead agencies: Conservation Organization for Afghan Mountain Bamyan will manage the project together with community members. Areas and local community partners Technical advisors with the UNEP office will supervise the project Local and international partners: AMA (Afghanistan microfinance over the core period. By end of June 2017, a formal written organization, ANDMA (Afghanistan National Disaster Management assessment will be made of the project, and recommendations for Authority), NEPA (National environmental protection agency) with improvements will be added. UNEP will work with faculty from UNEP; MEW will have an advisory role. Bamyan University and senior biologists and geology staff in the university also as part of capacity building to provide opportunities for Financial Parameters: university students in suitable areas to participate in and contribute Financial feasibility analysis (if possible): to improved programming Detailed budgets for 2017 and 2018 have been prepared. Security: Social and Environmental Impact: Security remains a concern for UNEP and government staff Are negative impacts expected? Are there social and environmental operating in the region, as perceived targets of Anti-Government safeguards in place? Elements (AGE). Close cooperation with DSS (Department for Safety and Security), the governor’s office, local Afghan National UNEP also started a social and environmental inventory and Police (ANP) and the communities themselves will mitigate some risk monitoring plan for the greater region encompassing the five valleys in this regard. Careful and regular assessment of risk needs takes included in this phase of the proposed protected area. This place on a daily basis. preliminary assessment combined with the physical planning work done on the site, by UNEP's landscape architecture team has shown the clear feasibility of the restoration and environmental improvement work at this location, and its immediacy.
Status of Preparation: What studies have been carried out already to estimate the feasibility of the project (concept note, reconnaissance, pre-feasibility, feasibility, detailed design)?
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PROJECT NAME: Building resilience of rural communities of ✓ Increased water quality and supply in watershed Afghanistan living around the Pistachio Belt in Takhar province through ✓ Improved forestry and land use – forest conservation and an Ecosystem based approach management. Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Agriculture Sector Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: Social, Economic, Environment: The climate change is expected to have profound impacts on forest Increased resilience of vulnerable people and communities: ecosystem with more frequent droughts, floods and changes in productivity affecting peoples and ecosystem. ✓ Enhancing the provision of services and goods (fruits, nuts, fiber, timber, medicines, honey and fodder for cattle, goats & The project seeks to enhance the resilience capacity of living in the sheep) Northern Pistachio Belt in Afghanistan, watershed and highly dependent on the ecosystem goods and services, improve their ✓ Enhanced community livelihoods as a result of increased livelihoods and reduce GHG emissions from deforestation. The target supply of non-timber forest products population is low-income communities. ✓ Development of knowledge base for Ecosystem based Approach (EbA) at community level Project Objective/s: ✓ Building institutional and technical capacity to design, Reduction of vulnerability of the communities living in the pistachio belt, implement and upscale EbA in forests watersheds in Afghanistan by building institutional and technical capacity to design, implement and upscale EbA in forests. Improved health and well-being, and food and water security The main objectives of this project are to: ✓ Increased availability of fresh water 1. Re-establish linkages between government and rural ✓ Reduced vulnerability to climate-related hazards communities; ✓ Enhanced nutrition of local communities and improved food 2. Provide grants for the reconstruction of physical and social security infrastructure; ✓ Infrastructure and built environment 3. Empower communities; and ✓ Development of existing infrastructure development initiatives, 4. Establish community-level governance structures. Training and including irrigation and transportation infrastructure. capacity development will be provided to CDCs to develop their Ecosystem and ecosystem services: action plans for development. ✓ Reduction of soil erosion and siltation of surface waters The proposed activities seek to: ✓ Improved infiltration of water into soil profiles ✓ Facilitate the participatory preparation of land use; ✓ Providing canopy cover to protect soil from the impact of rainfall ✓ Entrust natural resources management to local communities ✓ Filtering sediments and agricultural pollutants (in case of and empower women in the decision-making process; streamside forests) ✓ Strengthen and expand commercially viable and sustainable ✓ Reduced severity of climate-related hazards like floods, businesses of non-timber forest products. landslides and draughts
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Project Costs: N/A - limited law enforcement The above threats to the PB is further exacerbated by climate changes Proposed Timeframe: N/A that have been experienced in recent times and are predicted to Location / Area: intensify in the future. The PB is located in areas of the country that are Takhar province: This project will focus on forests in watersheds in the most vulnerable to climate change. Northern Pistachio Belt (PB) in Afghanistan, which has been identified In the result, livelihoods of rural community’s dependent on the as most vulnerable to climate change ecosystem goods and services that PB forests provide within watersheds of Afghanistan are increasingly threatened by the climate Project Background Justification: change impacts. Forests in Afghanistan have been severely degraded predominantly by Climatic change is expected to result in further increases in the average overharvesting and livestock overstocking. Currently, these forest temperatures across Afghanistan, reduced overall annual rainfall and ecosystems, including woodlands, only cover a small proportion of increased incidents of excessive rainfall. All of these impacts will lead Afghanistan’s land area. Their ability to provide natural ecosystem to an increased occurrence and severity of extreme weather events. services, including providing local communities with livelihoods has These include floods and droughts which will further intensify been severely compromised. degradation of the PB forests. In addition, the structure and function of The Pistachio belt is among the most extensive forest areas remaining forests is expected to change because of alterations in species in the country. The PB is fundamentally important for effective assemblages as a consequence of climate change. Furthermore, functioning of major watersheds of Afghanistan. This functionality increases in intense rainfall events in deforested and degraded areas in includes maintenance of water flow and accretion of soils as well as the PB will result in reduced infiltration of rainwater into soil profiles supporting livelihoods of local communities that are heavily dependent resulting in reduced base flow in rivers during dry periods. An increased on forest resources. intensity of rainfall events will also result in increased soil erosion and The Pistachio Belt is overexploited as a result of rapid growth of reduced soil fertility, thereby reducing agricultural productivity. Rain fed population and neglected management regarding: agriculture, small-scale irrigation and livestock farming will also be negatively impacted by decreased mean annual rainfall and an - firewood collection’ increased incidence of drought. - timber logging In rural communities in watersheds in the PB, women are considered to - over-grazing be more vulnerable to climate change than men. This is because in - trees for construction Afghanistan in general, women tend to be dependent on the male - minimal incentives for reforestation members of the household and have limited autonomy, decision- making capacity or access to economic assets. Men are able to move - lack of engagement of communities in forest management to other areas in search of employment or alternative income, whereas - no forest management women are more tied to their household locations – particularly in rural - cleaning of forests for agricultural needs and construction of areas. In addition, they have fewer alternative livelihood options and urban areas are dependent on natural resources that are vulnerable to damage from - selling the roots of pistachio trees climate change. For example, as water and fuel wood become less accessible women spend more time collecting these resources. - nut harvesting in an unsustainable way - local conflicts and uncertain land tenure rights Adaptation Options & Measures: - soil erosion The EbA approach will entail restoring and sustainably managing
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forests under climate change thereby maintaining and where possible and on-going projects: enhancing the provision of ecosystem goods and services that are ✓ Building Environmental Resilience in Afghanistan (UNEP, beneficial to local communities living in these watersheds and increase 2013-2016) their resilience to the impacts of climate change. These ecosystem ✓ Kunduz Integrated Water Initiative-2 (KIWI-2) (European Union goods and services include, inter alia: and Mercy Corps; €1.6 million) - Increasing the absorption of rainfall and snowmelt; ✓ The Panj-Amu River Basin Programme (P-ARBP) - Improving soil infiltration rates; ✓ The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development - Providing canopy cover to protect soil from the impact of (ICIMOD) rainfall; and iv) filtering sediments and agricultural pollutants (in ✓ The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) the case of streamside forests). ✓ The Department of Forestry in the Ministry of Agriculture, These functions ultimately increase water quality and supply in the Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) watershed. Project Beneficiaries: Potential Transformative Adaptation: Community based watershed management through restoration of The proposed project will reduce the vulnerability of communities living degraded forests; increased awareness, preparedness, and resilience in PB, watersheds in Afghanistan by building institutional and technical through ecosystem based adaptations at national and local level. capacity to design, implement and upscale EbA in forests. To this end the project will develop a knowledge base for EbA at national and local National & regional government, communities in Balkhab & Khulm levels and will integrate EbA into national development planning and watersheds. legislation. Implementation Arrangements: Evaluation: Lead agency: Nature Organization for Afghanistan Local and international partners: Rural Green Environmental 6. Priority: 87% Organization (RGEO), Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock 7. Benefit: 80% (MAIL), Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). International partners: UNDP, EPIC, ICIMOD. 8. Effectiveness: 93% The proposed project will be undertaken using a participatory approach 9. Sustainability: 87% and will ensure that all relevant stakeholders are involved in selection and validation of project activities. Consultations held at the national 10. Country 80%
EssentialCriteria level will include government, parliamentarians, research organizations, Support:
NGOs, donor partners and the private sector. Local level consultations Project Ranking: will include local government departments, community user groups, civil society and other appropriate organizations. Stakeholder 2 of 86 consultations on proposed activities will mobilize local communities, Financing Options: initiate discussions and promote buy-in from local communities. Grants A preliminary list of stakeholders includes: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), Value Added: Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD), Kabul The project will build on and coordinate with the following organizations University, Kabul Polytechnic University, Takhar University, Ministry of
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Education, Ministry of Women’s Affairs, Madera, Afghanistan Research - limited policies and strategies to institute EbA; and Evaluation Unit (AREU), Mercy Corps, as well as the Panj-Amu - limited community and national to local government River Basin Programme. understanding of climate change and the benefits of EbA; Financial Parameters: - high dependence of local communities and women in particular (no details available at this stage; EbA has shown to require on natural resources and; comparatively small investments relative to the long-term social, - degradation of forests in Afghanistan – which has reduced their economic and environmental benefits) potential to provide ecosystem goods and services to local communities, including the buffering against extreme weather Social and Environmental Impact: events. The project goals will establish and empower Community Development Councils (CDC) to operate as effective institutions for local governance and social-economic development through developing capacity for these CDCs to identify, plan, manage and monitor their own development projects and be involved in decision making processes; and trough assisting and facilitating communities to enhance local governance and management capacity by provision of community block grants to support economic and social development and improving community infrastructure. Community-based infrastructure and capacity building projects will be managed, implemented and monitored by community members. Status of Preparation: The project will build on and coordinate with the following organizations and on-going projects: ✓ Building Environmental Resilience in Afghanistan (UNEP, 2013-2016). ✓ Kunduz Integrated Water Initiative-2 (KIWI-2) (European Union and Mercy Corps; EUR 1.6 million) ✓ The Panj-Amu River Basin Programme (P-ARBP). Other: The barriers that hinder the implementation of the preferred solution include: - limited national and local institutional and technical capacity to plan, research, legislate for, implement and upscale EbA; - insufficient demonstration of the multiple benefits of EbA to influence policy- and decision-making; - limited financial resources to cope with climate stress;
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PROJECT NAME: Energy Efficient Households Project for Energy Component 2: Development of Energy Efficiency-focused Small Security and Emissions Reduction in Tajikistan and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - Activity 2.1: Setting up SMEs to produce energy efficient Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Energy Sector stoves Climate change could compound the severe challenges already - Activity 2.2: Setting up SMEs to produce energy efficient facing the energy sector. Other energy sources, including renewable windows, doors, wall and roof insulation energy, are under-utilized and the country’s energy infrastructure depends heavily on hydropower. This contributes to the climate - Activity 2.3: Setting up SMEs for charcoal production vulnerability of the country’s energy sector, which affects rural poor - Activity 2.4: Training and technical assistance to SMEs households disproportionately. Adaptation for these vulnerable Component 3: Microfinance for Energy Efficiency communities requires explicit measures to build resilience, increase - Activity 3.1: Facilitating Micro-loans to Households energy security and adaptive capacity by providing them access to high quality and affordable energy efficient products and - Activity 3.2: Facilitating Micro-loans to SMEs technologies that can improve the conditions of their housing units. Component 4: Quality Assurance and Awareness Raising Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: - Activity 4.1: National R&D and stove testing/certification laboratory The proposed project is consistent with the Government of Tajikistan’s strategy to improve living conditions in the country, - Activity 4.2: Community Information Centers on Energy wherein the government has included ‘ensuring energy security’ and Efficiency ‘development of cooperation in effectively using water and energy - Activity 4.3: Awareness Raising and Marketing Campaigns resources’ as its key priorities for infrastructure development and Component 5: Knowledge Management and Capacity Building trade in its ‘Living Standards Improvement Strategy of Tajikistan - Activity 5.1: Impact Monitoring and Evaluation 2013-15’, published in 2012.The project is also consistent with the government’s National Development Strategy for the 2007-15 period - Activity 5.2: Knowledge Management wherein improvement in energy efficiency, reduction in energy losses - Activity 5.3: Training and Capacity Building and support to developing private sector, especially small and - Activity 5.4: Policy Dialogue medium enterprises, for domestic production of goods and services in the energy and utilities sector are listed among key priorities. The Project Objective/s: project consists of 5 components, as described below. Buildings use about one third of all energy generated on the planet Component 1 (Core Component): Energy Efficiency and are strongly contributed to climate change. The definition of Improvement in Rural Households sustainable buildings is broad; sustainable buildings need to be - Activity 1.1: Affordable, energy efficient cooking and heating beautiful and comfortable, safe and healthy, while they also minimize energy and environmental impact. Movement towards more stoves sustainable and energy efficient buildings has started off. - Activity 1.2: Affordable, energy efficient doors and windows The primary objective of this proposed project is improvement of - Activity 1.3: Affordable wall and roof insulation materials energy efficiency and living conditions of rural households in
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Tajikistan, by providing access to energy efficient cooking/heating finance). stoves, windows, doors, wall/roof insulation products to rural Proposed Timeframe: 5 years households. Essentially, the project aims to provide rural communities with better housing conditions that can withstand cold Location / Area: winters despite energy shortages and, at the same time, contribute Over 20 districts of all 4 provinces in Tajikistan to reduction in deforestation and carbon emissions. The specific goals of the project are aimed at achieving this paradigm shift Project Background Justification: through: Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate ✓ The introduction of new energy efficient technologies and variability and change in the world because of its geographic products such that the capacity for energy security and location, mountainous topography, and exposure to hydro- climate resilience of energy supply infrastructure are meteorological influence extreme climate events. Increased risks of improved; severe flooding, erosion, landslides, mudflows and glacial lake ✓ The application of more explicit measures to build the outbursts resulting from more frequent extreme weather events, resilience in existing systems, specifically in relation to changing seasonality and rainfall patterns, increased temperature, improved housing conditions and reduced deforestation; heat waves and drought pose significant new risks to the rural livelihoods and infrastructure, including the country’s already deficit ✓ The active inclusion of socially disadvantaged poor, rural and over-extended energy supply infrastructure. households through a facilitative, market-driven approach in order to provide sustainable, long-term development and Tajikistan depends on hydroelectric sources for 98% of its electricity finance options for energy efficiency; needs. Over the last decade, Tajikistan has had an annual electricity demand of 16-17 billion kWh, reaching a peak of 17.34 billion kWh in ✓ The practical integration of research learnings into program 2007. However, Tajikistan’s power system is only able to generate design to increase impact and resilience, applied research about 16 billion kWh of electricity per annum, while the electricity and ongoing dissemination of innovation for locally available to end consumers being much lower, due to high power appropriate responses to increase awareness, advocacy and transmission and distribution losses. Besides, power generation education on energy efficiency and climate change; varies significantly throughout the year, wherein excess electricity is ✓ The introduction of new knowledge management systems generated during summer months (some of which is exported to such as ‘community information centers’ to capture Afghanistan and Kyrgyz Republic) and electricity generated in winter experience and lessons coming out of project months being significantly lower than demand. implementation for application in other similar areas in the country and the region; and Adaptation Options & Measures: ✓ Better leveraging of opportunities for innovative partnerships, Potential options & measures for reducing vulnerability and/or improved for impact, visibility and scale. building Climate resiliency: ✓ Energy efficiency improvements in 50,000 rural households Project Costs: USD 22.175 million spread across 20 districts in all 4 provinces of Tajikistan, The project, with its budget of USD 22.175 million, is expected to through provision of efficient cooking and heating stoves, leverage co-finance of USD 12.1 million from households (as down efficient doors, windows, wall and roof insulation products. payment/equity contribution) and Microfinance Institutions (as loans The number of target household beneficiaries represents made to households). Hence, the proposed ADB/PPCR investment about 4% of Tajikistan’s overall population and about 6%of in the project is about 61.4% of the total project costs (including co- the country’s rural population.
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✓ Driving affordability of these energy efficient technologies Evaluation: through a combination of subsides and microfinance 11. Priority: 80% ✓ Reduced deforestation and improved efficiency of cooking and heating fuels through provision of biomass waste based briquettes and charcoal to rural households for heating and 12. Benefit: 80% cooking 13. Effectiveness: 73% ✓ Private sector SME development in Tajikistan’s energy 14. Sustainability: 90% efficiency value chain through setting up and providing
financing, training and market access to 40 energy efficiency EssentialCriteria 15. Country Support: 100% SMEs in 20 districts Project Ranking: 3 of 86 ✓ Quality assurance and research and development in energy efficient stoves value chain through setting up of National Financing Options: R&D and Testing/Certification Laboratory Loans, grants and microfinance ✓ Increased awareness on energy efficient technologies in Value Added: rural areas through Community Information Centers and awareness raising campaigns The project hopes to achieve 3 long term outcomes: ✓ Human resource development through training and skill 1. Increased energy efficiency and better housing/living development in the areas of energy efficient technologies conditions in project areas by making high quality energy and management. efficient technologies affordable to households; 2. Development of private sector SMEs for local production of Potential Transformative Adaptation: high quality energy efficient products and services, thereby The World Bank estimates that Tajikistan’s total electricity shortage generating rural livelihoods; and during winter at the point of consumption is 2.7 billion kWh, which is 3. Increased capacity at the national and local levels to ensure about 24% of the total winter supply requirement. This shortage of quality of and ability to produce, market and distribute electricity in the winter affects the country’s rural areas (73% of the energy efficient products and increased awareness about country’s population lives in rural areas) and poor and vulnerable these technologies among rural population. households (32% of the population is estimated to be living below poverty line). Due to intermittent availability of residential electricity in Project Beneficiaries: winter, households warm their homes by burning solid fuels, such as It is expected that by the end of this project, 50,000 rural households wood and coal, which cause indoor air pollution. In addition, many (nearly 350,000 people) spread over 20 districts of all 4 provinces in houses, especially those in rural areas, were built during the Soviet Tajikistan will be able to access subsidized, high quality energy era and require some level of improvements to increase energy efficient cooking/heating stoves, doors/windows, and wall/roof efficiency and reduce spending on fossil fuels, such as replacing insulation products. windows, doors, and roofs. Achieving demand-side energy efficiency The total number of rural households that will benefit under this is the simplest way to improve the country’s winter energy situation, component by the end of this project (50,000) amounts to about 11% which can bring significant warmth and comfort to people living in of the total addressable market size of 459,795 households. these areas while also reducing the strain on the country’s over- extended power system. Affordability and lack of access to finance Women-headed households or households with predominantly are the key barriers to improving household energy efficiency women and children will be of highest priority for provision of energy
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efficient products, since these products will reduce indoor air Social and environmental safeguards: The proposed project has pollution and fire hazards that primarily affect women and children. been developed based on a pilot energy efficiency project Implementation Arrangements: implemented by Caritas in Tajikistan and a number of other sustainable development projects previously undertaken by Caritas Lead agency: Caritas Switzerland in Partnership with the State and their partners in Tajikistan, and as such environmental and Agency for Architecture and Construction of the Government of social safeguards have been built into the Concept Design. A Tajikistan. detailed environmental and social impact assessment will be Local and international partners: for this project will be Caritas conducted during full proposal development. Switzerland in partnership with implementation sub-contractors – This project’s design has incorporated elements that ensure socio- Welthungerhilfe (WHH) Tajikistan and its Alliance Partners (ACTED, economic, social, and environmental co-benefits to enhance the CESVI), GERES Tajikistan and CAMP Tabiat. University of Bern’s resilience of local people, such as: Center for Development and Environment (CDE) is proposed to be the knowledge management and capacity building partner and Economic Benefits: The project’s economic benefits are derived support from Unison Group of Kyrgyz Republic will be sought on from savings in household energy costs due to energy efficiency specific technical issues. measures. An economic cost-benefit analysis of energy cost savings due to energy efficiency measures on rural households was Caritas proposes to use similar implementation and conducted for the ADB’s Access to Green Finance program in 20131 community/stakeholder engagement structure and processes in all and it showed an economic internal rate of return of 16% over the 20 districts where this project is proposed to be implemented. At project’s implementation duration, which is higher than the ADB’s National level the project will establish a Project Steering Committee economic hurdle rate of 12%. This shows that the economic benefit that will include the government implementation partner, and all other arising out of this proposed project can also be quantified and it is implementation partners/sub-contractors, to ensure effective likely to be positive for the beneficiary rural households and the stakeholder engagement. country’s economy, even if these households need to make a small Financial Parameters: down payment and borrow from MFIs to acquire these products. Financial analysis available. Economic benefits will also be generated from the proposed activities of setting up, financing, training and providing market Social and Environmental Impact: access to SMEs that can locally produce and distribute energy Are negative impacts expected? efficiency products. Operationalizing SMEs in the country’s energy efficiency value chain will generate livelihoods for rural entrepreneurs According to the ADB risk categorization guidelines, the project is and also create additional jobs. considered as a low risk category project. It is financially small and is category B from a safeguard point of view. Caritas and its partners Social and Gender-specific co-benefits: The project also creates have considerable experience and in-house capacity to implement social co-benefits - heating and insulation solutions make people’s externally financed projects in Tajikistan. However, it is envisaged homes warm, comfortable and provide better living conditions in that substantial capacity building will be required to strengthen the winter. Energy efficient cooking and heating stoves reduce indoor air competence of our Government and private sector partners to pollution and hence improve people’s health, with health conditions implement aspects of the project. This will include investing in of women and children being the most positively impacted, as they capacity development, project planning and financial management in are the most affected ones due to indoor air pollution. Besides order to fully backstop the project and ensure that financial and increasing energy security of rural households, which in turn makes project risks are minimized. Overall risk assessment and their them more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In addition, proposed mitigation measures are detailed in the table below. livelihoods generation and additional job creation will bring some
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amount of social stability in these districts. Environmental co-benefits: The project also creates environmental benefit of avoided externality of CO2 emissions. As estimated in section D.1, the project is estimated to result in carbon emission reductions of about 300,000-400,000 tCOe over the 5 years of its implementation period. Additional environmental co-benefit will be reduced deforestation, since efficient cooking and heating using biomass waste-based briquettes and charcoal will result in lesser requirement for households to source forest-based fuel wood for their energy needs. Status of Preparation: GCF Concept Note Complete The proposed project is very closely aligned with the government’s goals and priorities under its national development and living standards improvement strategies. Caritas, being an international NGO and operating closely with communities in implementing agriculture and watershed management programs in Tajikistan for over 15 years, has designed and tested all its projects in the country to include participation from all stakeholders, including civil society groups. Caritas’ own energy efficiency pilot project in Muminabad has worked closely with the local community, local government and other organizations. Other: Project Evaluation Reports are available from Caritas on request for all of our ongoing and related projects. Additional resource information is available from our website: https://www.caritas.ch and https://www.caritas.ch/de/was-wir-tun/engagement-weltweit/country- programme-of-tajikistan/
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PROJECT NAME: Climate Resilient Livelihood Development and renamed into „Shamsiddin Shohin”. Economic Diversification for Poor Rural Communities in Tajikistan 3. The introduction of a range of practical alternative livelihood strategies aimed at strengthening the resilience of current Vulnerability and Resilience Context: livelihood systems – such as exploring innovations in The project will focus on improving the livelihoods of some of the most agroforestry and bioenergy, enhancing household income vulnerable rural communities in Tajikistan and increasing their generation (e.g. small livestock production), empowering resilience to climate variability and change. The livelihoods most likely communities through social inclusion programs; and building to be affected by climate change in Tajikistan in the future are farming capacity through farmer extension programs. and pastoralism. With the decline in rainfall and the increase in 4. Improving market access and value chain development, temperatures and drought, communities practicing these livelihoods are community- and farm-based enterprise development and most vulnerable and at risk. The agriculture sector is extremely mobilizing financing for climate resilient livelihoods. important to the development of Tajikistan’s economy and contributes between 18-21% to GDP and 64-70% of employment. 5. The introduction of community-based producer groups (rudimentary cooperatives) and joint marketing mechanisms to Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: facilitate information sharing and market access, and to The proposed ‘Climate Resilient Livelihood Development and facilitate adoption of CSA technologies and alternative Economic Diversification for Poor Rural Communities in Tajikistan’ livelihood practices. project focuses on improving the livelihoods of some of the most Project Costs: USD 20.0 million vulnerable rural communities in Tajikistan and increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. Proposed Timeframe: 5 years The project comprises four main components: Location / Area: • Component I: Transformative Climate Smart Agriculture Eastern part of Khatlon Region: Muminabad, Shurobod and Khovaling. • Component II: Climate Resilient Livelihoods (Shurobod district has recently been renamed into „Shamsiddin Shohin” • Component III: Sustainable Economic Development - as the new name is not well established yet, Caritas continues to use “Shurobod” for the time being.) Project Objective/s: Project Background Justification: 1. Improving the livelihoods of some of the most vulnerable rural communities in Tajikistan and increasing their resilience to The proposed ‘Climate Resilient Livelihood Development and climate variability and change. Economic Diversification for Poor Rural Communities in Tajikistan’ project will focus on improving the livelihoods of some of the most 2. The introduction of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) as a vulnerable rural communities in Tajikistan and increasing their means of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity (and resilience to climate variability and change. hence the sustainability of rural livelihoods) and building resilience to climate change impacts (i.e., adaptation) in 3 poor, This project proposal is consistent with the Government of Tajikistan’s rural districts of the Eastern Khatlon Region: Muminabad, ‘Third National Communications Strategy’ which emphasizes the Shurobod and Khovaling. (Shurobod district has recently been vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to climate change in Tajikistan, and
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specifically responds to the ‘Agriculture Reform Program of the Activity 1.1: CSA Crop Diversification Program Republic of Tajikistan for 2012-2020’. Activity 1.2: CSA Livestock & Pasture Management Program The project envisages the transformation of the agricultural sector, Activity 1.3: CSA Knowledge Transfer Program including crop and livestock production, is urgently needed to respond to climate change and sustainably increase agricultural productivity and Component II: Climate Resilient Livelihoods income generation in Tajikistan. In response to this, we propose, in the Activity 2.1: Agroforestry Diversification & Innovation Program context of this project, to adopt the Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Activity 2.2: Food Security, Poverty & Gender Equity Programs approach as a means of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity (and hence the sustainability of rural livelihoods) and building resilience Activity 2.3: Farmer Extension Program to climate change impacts (i.e., adaptation) in 3 poor, rural districts of Component III: Sustainable Economic Development the Eastern Khatlon Region. Activity 3.1: Market Access and Value Chain Development Program It is expected to reduce the socio-economic vulnerability of rural communities and households in Tajikistan, who are already suffering Activity 3.2: Community Enterprise Development Program from a combination of declining agricultural yields due to climate Activity 3.3: Financing for Climate Resilient Livelihoods Program change, high levels of rural poverty and food insecurity and declining income from remittances arising from the recession in Russia. In Potential Transformative Adaptation: response to these challenges, this project proposes the introduction of Adaptation for vulnerable communities requires explicit measures to a range of practical alternative livelihood strategies aimed at build resilience and adaptive capacity. The smallholder-dominated strengthening the resilience of current livelihood systems – such as agriculture sector in Tajikistan will depend on restoration of degraded exploring innovations in agroforestry and bioenergy, enhancing natural resources and the introduction of new agricultural technologies household income generation (e.g. small livestock production), and practices – such as Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), enhanced empowering communities through social inclusion programs; and knowledge-based adaptation of existing farming and pastoral systems, building capacity through farmer extension programs. alternative agroforestry livelihood systems and related agricultural The project will focus on improving market access and value chain business development, SME’s and marketing value chain programs. development, community- and farm-based enterprise development and These endeavors will need to be dispersed across rural communities, mobilizing financing for climate resilient livelihoods. A collaborative to create opportunities to foster greater coherence and increased approach to market access will be adopted in order to build robust collaboration between and across farmer groups. value chains that will be resilient to the impacts of climate change. Community-based producer groups (rudimentary cooperatives) and joint marketing mechanisms will be established and strengthened to facilitate information sharing and market access. Access to climate finance will also be made available to mobilize community groups and facilitate adoption of CSA technologies and alternative livelihood practices. Evaluation:
4. Priority: 80%
Adaptation Options & Measures:
a
tial tial Criteri Component I: Transformative Climate Smart Agriculture Essen 5. Benefit: 80%
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6. Effectiveness: 80% Local Government Representatives from Muminabad, Shurobod and Khovaling Districts 7. Sustainability: 83% Financial Parameters: 8. Country 100% The project is in the concept design phase. There is an indicative Support: budget that makes provisions for a broad range of inputs. However, the Project Ranking: full work breakdown structure and detailed costing will be developed 4 of 86 during the detailed design phase of the project – and this will form the basis for the final Financial Proposal. Financing Options: Social and Environmental Impact: Grants Are negative impacts expected? Value Added: According to the ADB risk categorization guidelines, the project is The overall goal for this project is to ‘increase the resilience of considered as a low risk category project. It is financially small and is vulnerable communities to climate related risks and shocks using best category B from a safeguard point of view. Caritas and its partners practices already in use by civil society development practitioners in have considerable experience and in-house capacity to implement Tajikistan’. Overall this project will scale-up climate-resilient agriculture externally financed projects in Tajikistan. However, it is envisaged that production systems in marginal mountainous agro-ecological zones substantial capacity building will be required to strengthen the across three districts. This proposal has been developed with climate competence of our Government and private sector partners to change adaptation and development partners who will support Caritas implement aspects of the project. This will include investing in capacity implementing the project, together with national government agencies. development, project planning and financial management in order to An approach which is aimed to be replicable as a climate-ready model fully backstop the project and ensure that financial and project risks are for other areas of Tajikistan and the Central Asian region. minimized. Project Beneficiaries: Caritas employs a range of risk management and quality assurance systems and procedures including strong compliance to financial It is expected that the project will achieve a range of practical outputs in management procedures, a rigorous M&E practice, and provision of 3 districts in Khatlon Region, (potentially) benefiting over 20,000 poor capacity support to partners and beneficiaries farming households in Muminabad, Shurobod and Khovaling. The proposed project has been developed based on a number of Implementation Arrangements: projects previously undertaken by Caritas and their partners in Lead agency: Caritas Switzerland in Partnership with the Ministry of Tajikistan, and as such environmental and social safeguards have been Agriculture and the Tajikistan Farmers Union built into the Concept Design and an environmental and social impact Local and international partners: Centre for Agriculture and assessment is not considered to be necessary. Bioscience International (CABI), the World Agroforestry Centre Project sustainability will be achieved by encouraging government (ICRAF), German Agro Action and the Tajikistan Farmers Union in the counterparts and the target communities to have greater ownership of Ministry of Agriculture. the project throughout the implementation period and by ensuring A Project Steering Committee (PSC), chaired by the Ministry of project activities are integrated into established structures and Agriculture, will provide overall guidance for project implementation. processes. Project sustainability will be achieved in three ways. Firstly, The PSC will be composed of designated senior-level representatives replication of project approaches will be promoted across the levels, of the MoA, Ministry of Economics, the National Farmers Union and through the demonstration, documentation and dissemination of best
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practices. business financial management and proposal writing. The project aims At the local level, the project will seek to roll out promising agriculture to build better cooperation pathways among all local implementing adaptation and market-based approaches and good practices tested agencies (particularly government, NGOs, CBOs, private sector and and adapted at discrete sites in other locations. Initial impact envisaged communities) and provide mechanisms enabling broad stakeholder under the project is three districts in Eastern Khatlon with a total participation in decision-making and management of agriculture population of about 200,000 involving 20,000 farming households as ecosystems. This multi-level engagement approach will most direct beneficiaries. At the national level, the lessons from the project importantly build a strong stakeholder constituency for more concerted will be analyzed and used to influence the policy and practice of others. action against climate change. The project will work at the national level through INGOs, NGOs, Status of Preparation: community-based organizations and other actors to scale out good GCF Concept Note Complete practices across land, water, agriculture sectors. Such will improve The proposed project has been developed based on a number of NGO practice as we learn more about implementing adaptation in projects previously undertaken by Caritas and its partners in Tajikistan, Tajikistan, and will be disseminated widely to other stakeholders in the and as such represents scaling up and replication of successful country. Documented needs of communities and key program learnings previous project interventions, including: Integrated Watershed will be fed into government climate change development processes, aiming to have community based adaption enshrined as a key Management Project (IWSM); Livestock and Pasture Development component of climate change policy and planning at the national level, Project (LPDP); Growth in the Rural Economy and Agriculture in Tajikistan (GREAT); Promoting Sustainable Agriculture in Khatlon with adequate resourcing by government and donors. At the Central (PROSAKH); and Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in Asia regional and the global levels, Caritas and partners will Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT). disseminate best practices through knowledge management networks such as the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture Other: and Food Security. Project Evaluation Reports are available from Caritas on request for all Secondly, to help agricultural economy boost in favor of smallholders, of our ongoing and related projects. Additional resource information is the project will invest in improving agricultural extension services and available from our website: https://www.caritas.ch and exploring public-private-partnership (PPP) as a way of introducing https://www.caritas.ch/de/was-wir-tun/engagement-weltweit/country- private sector adaptation technology and agricultural innovation. The programme-of-tajikistan/ fee based extension system, currently promoted by Caritas in Muminabad District within the Promotion of Sustainable Agriculture in Khatlon (PROSAKH) project is a good example of a self-financing, sustainable extension service. Improved operational efficiency of ongoing subsidies and support to farming systems will be a key focus so that PPP established under the project will be able to flourish beyond the project timeframe. PPP will be critical to facilitating infrastructure base (such as construction, technology and support services) for agriculture as well as giving boosting smallholder businesses. Lastly, to ensure long-term effectiveness of the proposed activities, the project will support the improvements in current institutional and community capacity for project management, monitoring, support, small
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PROJECT NAME: Yakhsu River Basin Integrated Watershed In response to these climate change impacts the ‘Yakhsu River Management Project for Climate Resilience and Hazards Risks Basin Integrated Watershed Management Project for Climate Reduction Resilience and Hazards Risks Reduction’ (YIWSM Project) will promote the restoration and reforestation of 35 sub-catchments Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Water Sector (which will collectively cover a total area of about 237,000 ha), and Tajikistan is considered to be the most vulnerable country to the has the potential to make a substantial contribution to emissions impacts of climate change among the 28 Central Asian states and reductions and carbon sequestration in Tajikistan. Unfortunately, the least able to adapt. Tajikistan is prone to hydro-metrological nature of the forest plantings (slow growing mountain species) and disasters, particularly, landslides, mud flow and floods caused by the nature of the forest types is not conducive to investment for torrential rains or long lasting rains during spring and drought during climate mitigation purposes. summer. Climate change projections across Tajikistan suggest It will focus on developing and implementing community based climate change will present significant threats to rural communities in climate adaptation and risk reduction measures aimed at reducing the country, especially in regard to the increase in loss and damage the impacts (and costs) of erosion, floods, landslides and mudslides associated with extreme events and climate induced natural in 5 upper watershed catchments of the Yakhsu River Basin, located disasters. in Khovaling, Shurobod, Muminabad and upper Kulob and Vose Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: districts. These watersheds are comprised of numerous sub- catchments, altogether around 35, and collectively cover a total area Under the Paris Agreement, the Republic of Tajikistan has of about 237,000 ha. They are home to around 30,000 poor rural committed with its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to households. climate adaptation to (among other things) the implementation of: ✓ the Medium-Term Development Program of the Republic of This project is also fully in line with the GCF’s focus of promoting Tajikistan for the period 2016-2020; transformational change in developing countries. The project will ✓ the Agriculture Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan increase climate resilience of 6 of the most vulnerable rural for 2012-2020; watershed areas in Tajikistan. ✓ the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management of the The investment made under this project will demonstrate how the Republic of Tajikistan for 2009-2015; introduction of new IWSM practices (such as Sustainable Land ✓ the Emergency Preparedness and Response of the Republic Management (SLM) and disaster risk reduction programs) can build of Tajikistan; and other sectoral programs. the resilience and adaptive capacity of highly vulnerable rural At the national and provincial levels, these programs have generated communities in Tajikistan. It is envisaged that the project will also increased interest from governmental institutions to actively engage contribute to a paradigm shift in Tajikistan through: in community-based processes of land use planning and integrated ✓ The introduction of new climate-resilient agricultural and watershed management. However, effective governmental livelihood systems; participation has been constrained by the lack of financial resources ✓ The application of a more explicit measures to reduce and the lack of awareness on the role IWSM can play in terms of climate hazard risks; climate adaptation, climate resilience and disaster risk reduction. ✓ The practical integration of research learnings into program
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design to increase impact and resilience, applied research Highly vulnerable upper watershed areas of the Yakhsu River basin and ongoing dissemination of innovation for locally in Eastern Khatlon (oblast) region: Khovaling, Muminabad, appropriate responses to increase awareness, advocacy and Shurobod, Vose and Kulob districts. education on climate change; ✓ The introduction of new knowledge management systems Project Background Justification: such as ‘knowledge hubs’ to capture experiences and In the future, agriculture will remain a key driver of economic growth lessons coming out of project implementation for application in Tajikistan, with a prime responsibility of providing sustainable in other similar areas in the country and the region; and livelihood and employment opportunities for a rapidly growing and predominantly youthful population. With 36% of its population ✓ Better leveraging of opportunities for innovative learning residing in rural areas considered to be living in poverty, the partnerships and improved impact, visibility and scale. agriculture sector will play an increasingly important role in Project Objective/s: Tajikistan’s future. 1. The scaling-up of climate sensitive watershed management The focus of the project is on reducing vulnerability to floods and technologies and practices pioneered by Caritas in the droughts in 237,000 ha in the Yakhsu River basin in Southern Muminabad Watershed project; Tajikistan through implementation of hard/soft infrastructure and 2. The application of more explicit measures to build the ecosystem-based adaptation solutions to mitigate climate-induced resilience in existing systems, and specifically in relation to and disaster risks. This will include the use of landscape-wide and the leveraging reforestation and improved pasture designed IWSM demonstration activities focusing on reduction of management currently being implemented by Caritas under climate and disaster risks to bring significant vulnerability reduction the KfW-funded CAFT and the SDC-funded IWSM projects; benefits to 250 villages. DRR mitigation projects will act as catalysts 3. The practical integration of research learnings into program for replication and scaling-up approaches to improve community- design to increase impact and resilience, applied research level disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. From and ongoing dissemination of innovation for locally this perspective the economic and financial aspects of the proposed appropriate responses to increase awareness, advocacy and activities are both cost effective and technically appropriate in terms education on climate change; and of avoiding or reducing the future costs of loss and damage resulting 4. The introduction of new knowledge management systems from future climate change. such as ‘knowledge hubs’ to capture experience and lessons The YIWSM Project comprises 3 technical components and 8 key coming out of project implementation for application in other activities: similar areas in the country and the region. Component I: Watershed Planning and Hazard Risk Mapping Project Costs: Activity 1.1: Hazard Risk Mapping The Project will finance the interventions needed to achieve the key Activity 1.2: Participatory Watershed Management Planning activities described above and needed for project management and Activity 1.3: Community Consultation and Mobilization technical assistance, and for assisting communities in implementing Component II: Integrated Watershed Management for Climate project-related interventions. The project cost is estimated at USD Resilience and Risk Reduction 20.0 million. An indicative budget for the various components – which will be confirmed during detailed design. Activity 2.1: Catchment Restoration and Reforestation for Erosion Control Proposed Timeframe: 5 Year Project Activity 2.2: Sustainable Land Management Measures Location / Area:
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Activity 2.3: Flood Risk Reduction Measures to turn it into something of national relevance to Tajikistan in terms of Component III: Capacity for Climate Resilient Watershed scalability and replicability. Management Evaluation:
Activity 3.1: Transformative Capacity Building 9. Priority: 80% Activity 3.2: IWSM Knowledge Management and Transfer The investment made under this project will demonstrate how the 10. Benefit: 67% introduction of new IWSM practices (such as Sustainable Land Management (SLM) and disaster risk reduction programs) can build 11. Effectiveness: 93% the resilience and adaptive capacity of highly vulnerable rural 12. Sustainability: 83% communities in Tajikistan: sentialCriteria
Es 13. Country Support: 100% The project will support regional communities to adopt strategies that build landscape resilience against extreme climatic events with a Project Ranking: focus on sustainable watershed and climate hazard risk reduction 4 of 86 activities to support community-based approaches to watershed management and scale up successful techniques and technologies Financing Options: for watershed management in the Yakhsu River basin. The A financial model that includes projection covering the period from communities will be encouraged to manage their watersheds in a financial closing through final maturity of the proposed ADB/GCF more productive and sustainable manner through the introduction of financing with detailed assumptions and rationale will be developed new hard/soft infrastructure and ecosystem-based adaptation during the financial proposal development phase. technologies and measures to mitigate climate-induced and disaster risks. It focuses on enhancing capacity, knowledge exchange, Value Added: learning, replication of climate sensitive approaches to watershed The project offers considerable opportunities for both scaling up in management for climate resilience and risk reduction. the Yakhsu river basin – but also applying the project concept and approach to the other main river basins and highly vulnerable upper Adaptation Options & Measures: catchment areas across Tajikistan. Potential options & measures for reducing vulnerability and/or building Climate resiliency Project Beneficiaries: The YIWSM Project includes a range of adaptation measures to: Direct beneficiaries ✓ reduce the risk of social and economic loss from climate ✓ Government of Tajikistan, Ministry of Energy and Water change hazards; Resources. ✓ mitigate the causal factors of natural disasters; ✓ Research Institute of Water Engineering and Amelioration (TajikNIIGiM) under the Ministry of Energy and Water ✓ reduce exposure to hazards; Resources. ✓ lessen the vulnerability of people and property; and ✓ Villages and people living in 5 upper watershed catchments ✓ build the capacity of a community to prepare for and cope of the Yakhsu River Basin, located in Khovaling, Shurobod, with a disaster or extreme events. Muminabad, upper Kulob and Vose districts. These Potential Transformative Adaptation: watersheds are comprised of numerous sub-catchments, altogether around 35, and collectively cover a total area of The YIWSM project will basically scale up this successful approach
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about 237,000 ha. They are home to around 30,000 poor Social co-benefits: It is expected that the project will generate a rural households. The approximate breakdown of the area is range of positive social and health impacts through the as follows: implementation of a range of food security and poverty alleviation measures including participatory processes of social learning, multi- District Villages Population stakeholder negotiation and gender-sensitive development Khovaling 22 7,385 opportunities, to ensure that the livelihoods of the most vulnerable people and groups are protected or enhanced Muminabad 155 86,510 Environmental co-benefits: Expected positive environmental Shurobod 10 10,431 impacts from the project include reforestation and ecosystem restoration, improved watershed protection, restoration of important Kulob 48 60,329 ecosystem-services and biodiversity values Vose 29 29,800 Against the background of projected climate impacts, there is a need to build the resilience and capacity of women, men and children to Total 264 194,455
respond to climate variability and change associated with the water Implementation Arrangements: resources sector. Local communities are weakly capacitated to deal Lead agency: Caritas Switzerland in Partnership with the with increasing climate impacts to critical water dependent TajikNIIGiM under the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources. ecosystems, food systems and infrastructure that are based in major watersheds and containing a large proportion of agricultural land, Local and international partners: the Centre for Agriculture and such as the Panj River basin. Adaptation measures that can Bioscience International (CABI), the World Agroforestry Centre integrate across sectors applying a mix of natural and building (ICRAF), German Agro Action and the Tajikistan Farmers Union in infrastructure solutions to climate-proof livelihood measures in the Ministry of Agriculture. Key stakeholders include: District vulnerable communities are needed. Similarly, land management governments (hukumats); State Forest Enterprises of the Forestry technologies targeting critical water resources ecosystems need to Agency of Tajikistan; the Committee of Emergency Situations be scaled-up in vulnerable communities along the Yakhsu River (CoES); District Jamoats and land users. basin and its tributaries. Financial Parameters: According to the ADB risk categorization guidelines, the project is Financial analysis is currently available for components of the considered as a low risk category project. It is financially small and is project. A full financial feasibility analysis will be provided with the full category B from a safeguard point of view. Caritas and its partners project proposal. have considerable experience and in-house capacity to implement externally financed projects in Tajikistan. However, it is envisaged Social and Environmental Impact: that substantial capacity building will be required to strengthen the Economic Benefits: In addition to the direct positive economic competence of our Government and private sector partners to benefits that we expect to generate through the core land and water implement aspects of the project. This will include investing in management components of this project (such as improved soil capacity development, project planning and financial management in productivity, alternative income generation from agroforestry and order to fully backstop the project and ensure that financial and improved livestock management), our focus on rural enterprise project risks are minimized. development, processing, marketing and agricultural value chains Caritas employs a range of risk management and quality assurance will contribute significantly to household income generation and systems and procedures including strong compliance to financial economic development management procedures, a rigorous M&E practice, and provision of
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capacity support to partners and beneficiaries. ✓ Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Forestry in The expected results of interventions under this Project are: Important River Catchment Areas in Tajikistan (CAFT) (The Forestry Agency is supported in its endeavor to ✓ Reforestation of degraded land and high-risk slopes; replicate a joint forest management approach which was ✓ Improved management of grazing land; and improved piloted by GIZ through implementing partners, one of which resilience of farmers to extreme climatic events or climatic was Caritas. The capacity building of the Forestry Agency risk management ability through improved soil fertility and and the subordinate State Forest Enterprises, through the moisture management; administration of a disposition fund). ✓ Enhanced protection of downstream riverbanks, housing and Other: infrastructure from flooding and erosion. Project Evaluation Reports are available from Caritas on request for Status of Preparation: all of our ongoing and related projects. Additional resource GCF Concept Note completed information is available from our website: https://www.caritas.ch and The proposed project has been developed based on a number of https://www.caritas.ch/de/was-wir-tun/engagement-weltweit/country- projects previously undertaken by Caritas and its partners in programme-of-tajikistan/ Tajikistan, and as such represents scaling up and replication of successful previous project interventions, specifically the following: ✓ Integrated Watershed Management Project (IWSM) (Establishment of a participatory watershed governance mechanism through a project steering committee consisting of all relevant stakeholders; establishment of a project trust fund and successful disbursement of over CHF 0.5m over the past 5 years with astonishing results on the ground and contributions of up to 40%; transformational change in land management, shifting from wheat to perennials, reducing livestock numbers and implementing rotational grazing plans in two watersheds of a total area of 11,280 ha) ✓ Livestock and Pasture Development Project (LPDP) (Caritas was contracted by IFAD as implementing agency for the district of Muminabad to facilitate the formation of Pasture User Unions (PUU) and the formulation of Community Pasture and Livestock Management Plans) ✓ Growth in the Rural Economy and Agriculture in Tajikistan (GREAT) ✓ Promoting Sustainable Agriculture in Khatlon (PROSAKH) (Under a service contract with GIZ, Caritas developed and implemented a successful model of fee- based agriculture extension services between 2012 and 2014)
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PROJECT NAME: Climate change risk management embedded in The project sets four specific objectives that will be reached by Integrated Watershed Management targeted outputs, which are in turn are facilitated by respective activities. Vulnerability and Resilience Context: ✓ Objective 1 Enhancing the local adaptive capacity to According to conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate effectively manage climate change risks in the Kyrgyz Change (IPCC), the vulnerability of the Central Asian countries, Republic. including the Kyrgyz Republic, to climate change will increase, ✓ Objective 2 Capacities of local institutions responsible for adding to the current pressure on natural resources and the water and land management are strengthened. environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development. Climate change undermines sustainable ✓ Objective 3: The elaborated local climate strategies are development and, in particular, places an additional burden on the implemented. shoulders of the poorest rural mountain communities that often suffer ✓ Objective 4: Up-scaling of the developed approaches to the the most from extreme weather events, desertification, and changes other representative watersheds in the other three climatic in water supply. zones of the Kyrgyz Republic to finally be able to The introduction of climate risk management in Kyrgyzstan in the disseminate the adapted approaches (adapted to the process of strategic planning and operational management of natural climatic zone) in the other watersheds. resources at the local level and the level of the water basin will Project Costs: Total cost: USD 4.5 million maximize the economy and protect the population from the negative effects of climate change. Proposed Timeframe: 4 years Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: Location / Area: The objective is to contribute to climate change risk management in 4 representative watersheds (district level): Sokuluk (Chy), Zerger the project area by enabling local communities and local institutions (South), Ton (Issyk-Kul), Jergetal (Naryn) to jointly manage natural resources on the watershed level in a Project Background Justification: sustainable way and combat the negative impacts of climate change and to reduce climate risks on the livelihoods of the population. Preliminary calculations performed by experts in the process of developing priority directions for adaptation to climate change in the Project Objective/s: Kyrgyz Republic have shown that in the most unfavorable climate The overall objective is enhancing the local adaptive capacity to change scenarios, the annual economic damage for the Kyrgyz effectively manage climate change risks in the Kyrgyz Republic. Republic by 2100 could amount to upwards of KGS 64,800 million. Climate change can cause a negative effect to a country’s efforts The first goal of the project is to enable Kyrgyz communities to toward increasing the general standard of living. Therefore, combat negative impacts of climate change risks. development and implementation of the national climatic policy, The second goal is that political dialogue is encouraged through the especially policy on adaptation to climate change, becomes the elaboration of an institutional and legal framework to allow imperative need. integration of local climate strategies to the national climate strategy. Climate change has impacts on socio-economic aspects of local
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communities’ livelihoods. Creating a database on the four pilot part of the development of climate plans at the local level and the watersheds is the first critical step: knowledge and information river basin level that is of regional significance. The action plan gathered through a baseline study will assess risks from climate involves the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures, change and indicate peoples’ perceptions toward climate change as well as activities and equipment aimed at strengthening the and the associated risks. coping capacities of local institutions. The knowledge and information about climate change impacts Capacity building in the following fields will enable the stakeholders gained during the baseline study process will be spread and thus to manage climate change risks: equipment for meteorological and raise civil society awareness about climate change risks. Likewise, hydrological stations, monitoring sites in pastures, practical research, creating a database will enable the assessment of damages to consulting, income generating activities, joint planning, exchange climate change and enable the analysis of land use at the watershed visits, and local monitoring. level, which will, in turn, facilitate planning process on the watershed level and the identification of relevant institutions and local strategies Potential Transformative Adaptation: that can cope with climate change impacts. Adaptation measures include soil and water conservation technologies, and infrastructure facilities such as water sites for The results of baseline study and climate change risk assessment cattle, mountain bridges, burial ground for animal refuse, repair of are twofold: they will allow for the proper elaboration of local climate change adaptation strategies, and, when local people understand the mountain roads, water distributors, and rehabilitation of irrigation and benefits of such adaptation strategies, this raises motivation and drainage networks. support to cope with climate change impacts and facilitate the long- Capacity building will enable the stakeholders to manage climate term goal of decreasing damage by climate change. One guide for change risks. designing local climate strategies on watershed level, including Evaluation: specifics of each of the four climate zones of Kyrgyzstan, will be elaborated on the base of the tested approaches. 14. Priority: 80% Efficient political dialogue will allow the preparation of political, institutional and legal frameworks for the approach dissemination 15. Benefit: 60% throughout the country and, finally, lead to the integration of local 16. Effectiveness: 93% climate strategies into the national ones. 17. Sustainability: 90% Adaptation Options & Measures:
EssentialCriteria 18. Country Support: 70% The project includes raising awareness and strengthening capacities of local institutions and the development and implementation of Project Ranking: climate policies. 6 out of 86 Particular attention is given to integrated planning at the watershed level, and supporting local institutions in facilitating the development Financing Options: and implementation of plans. As a result, the population will be able The project will not fully finance the implementation of climate to withstand climate risks. strategies, but rather co‐finance. This approach will contribute to The project offers tools such as the assessment of climate risks, increasing the ownership of CSO, government institutions and including the assessment of vulnerability and damage together with communities towards the long‐term management of natural the local population and mapping, analysis of land use, and resources and relevant infrastructure. assessment of public perception of climate change. These tools are
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Value Added: Social and Environmental Impact: CAMP Alatoo's approaches are based on the ownership of its project The project will contribute to climate change risk management in the participants. The last decades of development cooperation have project area by enabling local communities and local institutions to shown that projects' immediate outcomes work best and are most jointly manage natural resources on the watershed level in a sustainable when the communities involved develop the strategies sustainable way and combat the negative impacts of climate change. and measures to tackle their problems themselves. Like this, it is Status of Preparation: guaranteed that the initiated development is designed according to the particular local context. CAMP Alatoo thus sees itself as a Concept note. facilitator of development by supporting self-learning processes in Other: rural communities.
Project Beneficiaries: Beneficiaries are the local partners and people living in the four watersheds of the project. Implementation Arrangements: Lead agency: NGO CAMP Alatoo. Local and international partners: For the realization of the project it is planned to create a consortium of project partners with GIZ, the Water Resources Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Melioration of the KR, the Center for Development and Environment (Switzerland, Bern). Other partners will include the Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG), the NGO Climate Centre, the Meteorology and Hydrology Department at Kyrgyz Slavic University (Meteorological department), State Institute of Water Issues, bodies of the local administrations and relevant NGOs. Financial Parameters: The project has been planned over 4, partly overlapping phases with a total duration of about 4 years. year amount currency 1 800000 USD 2 1200000 USD 3 1500000 USD 4 1000000 USD total 4500000 USD
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PROJECT NAME: Energy Efficient Households Project for Energy A break down over the 5 project components and the 16 Activities plus Security and Emissions Reduction in Kyrgyz Republic project management is available. Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Proposed Timeframe: 5 Years The project is structured around a market-driven approach deploying Location / Area: energy efficient products and technologies, building structures and 20 districts across all 4 provinces of Kyrgyz Republic capacities on both demand and supply sides, besides developing an enabling ecosystem that includes quality assurance, technology Project Background Justification: research, end-user finance and human resource capacity, in addition to Kyrgyz Republic is a land locked country with nearly 94% of its territory raising awareness levels of rural households. located 1000 meters above sea level and 40% of territory located 3000 meters above sea level, illustrating the dominance of the mountain Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: environment on the county and on its climate. Kyrgyz Republic Buildings use about one third of all energy generated on the planet and operates a power system with an installed capacity of 3.863 megawatts are strongly contributed to climate change. The definition of sustainable (MW), of which 81% capacity is Hydropower Plants (HPPs) and 19% buildings is broad; sustainable buildings need to be beautiful and thermal Combined Heat and Power Plants (CHPPs). While 95% of comfortable, safe and healthy, while they also minimize energy and electric generation typically comes from HPPs they are in need of environmental impact. Movement towards more sustainable and energy upgrading and modernization. The two thermal CHPPs, fueled by efficient buildings has started off. imported gas, oil and coal, are also in need of complete rehabilitation or The building sector is the largest energy end-user (over 40% of the final replacement. Over 1.1 million customers are connected to the national energy consumption). Achieving demand-side energy efficiency, grid with an electrification rate approaching 100%. Network assets are particularly in buildings (both rural and urban, in residential, commercial near the end of their life and are in need of major rehabilitation and and industrial buildings) is the simplest way to improve the country’s augmentation. This results in reduced reliability and high technical winter energy situation, which can bring significant warmth and comfort losses. Gas, central heating and hot water supply network is typically to people living in rural areas while also reducing the strain on the not available in rural areas and in some urban areas too. country’s over-extended power system. The country remains interconnected to national grids of Kazakhstan Project Objective/s: and Uzbekistan under the Central Asia Power System (CAPS) network that enables it to export and import electricity depending on whether its The primary objective of this proposed project is improvement of own power generation system generates excess or deficient electricity energy efficiency and living conditions of rural households in Kyrgyz during the year. Power generation depends on time of the year and Republic, by providing access to energy efficient cooking/heating water release agreements with its Central Asian neighbors. Typically, stoves, windows, doors, wall/roof insulation products to rural the Kyrgyz power system generates excess electricity during summer households. Essentially, the project aims to provide rural communities which is exported to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. However, with better housing conditions that can withstand cold winters despite winter demand for electricity is nearly triple the demand in summer and energy shortages and, at the same time, contribute to reduction in hydropower generation falls significantly in winter, necessitating import deforestation and carbon emissions. of electricity, oil, gas and coal, which poses significant risks to the Project Costs: USD 22.175 million country’s energy security.
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With an estimated system loss of nearly 32%, electricity shortages and Activity 2.3: Setting up SMEs for charcoal production (USD 0.25 power outages in rural areas are often observed during the winter. million) Despite annual demand growth of 3-5%, power generation has Activity 2.4: Training and technical assistance to SMEs (USD 0.6 stabilized at 13-14 billion kWh, depending on the inflow of water and million) the state of its reserves in the all-important Toktogul reservoir. In some Component 3: Microfinance for Energy Efficiency (USD 0.2 million) years, such 2008 and 2009 seasons, when power output decreased to 10.3 billion kWh, on the average, for two years because of low water Activity 3.1: Facilitating Micro-loans to Households inflow. Restriction on power consumption in form of rotating Activity 3.2: Facilitating Micro-loans to SMEs disconnection of consumers was imposed in these years. Such Component 4: Quality Assurance and Awareness Raising (USD 4 shortage of electricity in the winter affects the country’s rural areas million) (64% of the country’s population lives in rural areas) and poor and Activity 4.1: National R&D and stove testing/certification laboratory vulnerable households (32% of the population is estimated to be living (USD 0.5 million) below poverty line). Activity 4.2: Community Information Centers on Energy Efficiency Due to intermittent availability of residential electricity in winter, and (USD 3.0 million) limited availability of gas or central heating, over 56% of rural households burn fossil fuels, such as wood and coal for heating and Activity 4.3: Awareness Raising and Marketing Campaigns (USD cooking, which cause indoor air pollution. In addition, many houses, 0.5 million) especially those in rural areas, were built during the Soviet era and Component 5: Knowledge Management and Capacity Building require some level of improvements to increase energy efficiency and (USD 2.3 million) reduce spending on fossil fuels, such as replacing windows, doors, and Activity 5.1: Impact Monitoring and Evaluation (USD 0.7 million) roofs. Activity 5.2: Knowledge Management (USD 0.7 million)
Activity 5.3: Training and Capacity Building (USD 0.7 million) Adaptation Options & Measures: Activity 5.4: Policy Dialogue (USD 0.2 million) Component 1 (Core Component): Energy Efficiency Improvement in Rural Households (USD 7.75 million) Potential Transformative Adaptation: Activity 1.1: Affordable, energy efficient cooking and heating stoves It is envisaged that the proposed project will drive transformational (USD 4 million) changes in the areas of energy efficiency in Kyrgyzstan by directly focusing on both supply side and demand side management Activity 1.2: Affordable, energy efficient doors and windows (USD improvements. 2,5 million)
Activity 1.3: Affordable wall and roof insulation materials (USD 1,25 million) Evaluation: Component 2: Development of Energy Efficiency-focused Small 19. Priority: 80% and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) (USD 2.0 million) Activity 2.1: Setting up SMEs to produce energy efficient stoves 20. Benefit: 80% (USD 0.9 million)
21.Criteria Effectiveness: 73%
Activity 2.2: Setting up SMEs to produce energy efficient windows, Essential doors, wall and roof insulation (USD 0.25 million) 22. Sustainability: 90%
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23. Country Support: 70% Implementation Arrangements:
Project Ranking: Lead agency: Unison Group in Bishkek will be responsible for managing the implementation of this project in partnership with the 6 of 86 Government of Kyrgyz Republic’s Ministry of Economy, State Agency Financing Options: for Architecture, Construction, Housing and Communal Services. The total technical assistance budget for component 3 (both activity 3.1 Local and international partners: Caritas Switzerland, CAMP Alatoo, and 3.2 together) is USD 0.2 million. In addition, this component will GERES Kyrgyz Republic, the Centre for Development and Environment leverage co-finance of USD 12.1 million, which includes USD 5.65 (CDE), an interdisciplinary research center of the University of Bern, million as microfinance from MFIs under the EBRD and IFC programs Switzerland. and USD 6.45 million as down payment/equity contribution from Financial Parameters: households and SMEs A financial feasibility analysis has been undertaken for individual Value Added: components of the project. The project structure has been designed to ensure that towards the end Social and Environmental Impact: of the project, an enabling environment and ecosystem would have been created that can support further scale-up and rapid deployment of Setup SMEs that can locally produce stoves and the potential to bring energy efficient technologies in a large number of rural households transformational change and real impact on deforestation and climate across all districts in the country. The project’s structure and change. methodology, once proven, can also be replicated to other low-income A critical aspect of this project is that the stove production-marketing- countries in Asia and Africa which face similar challenges in household sales-installation ecosystem created by this project will sustain beyond energy efficiency and climate change. the duration of this project. The National R&D, Testing/Certification Laboratory will not only Setting up SMEs for charcoal production with sustainable fuel wood address the quality assurance aspect of the energy efficiency production, there will be increased carbon sink and moisture reservoir, technology value chain, but it will also work towards transfer of enhanced household energy security and greater entrepreneurial technology and knowledge from Unison and its partners and opportunities created through sales of firewood. Improved efficiency international experts to researchers, scientists, entrepreneurs and pyrolysis will reduce CH4 emissions, and the carbon sink potential of professionals in Kyrgyz Republic forests is preserved by avoiding tree cutting and less amount of wood is The project will also engage with the government in a policy dialogue to required to yield the same amount of charcoal. enable creation of a conducive policy and regulatory environment for Status of Preparation: energy efficiency improvement in rural households in the country, in The proposed project is very closely aligned with the government’s addition to supporting SMEs and entrepreneurs in the value chain. goals and priorities under its national development and living standards Project Beneficiaries: improvement strategies. Unison, being an NGO and operating closely It is expected that by the end of this project, 50,000 rural households with communities in implementing energy efficiency, renewable energy (nearly 350,000 people) spread over 20 districts of all 4 provinces in and fairness in governance activities in Kyrgyz Republic for over 14 Kyrgyz Republic will be able to access subsidized, high quality energy years, has designed and tested all its projects in the country to include efficient cooking/heating stoves, doors/windows, and wall/roof participation from all stakeholders, including civil society groups. insulation products. Other:
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PROJECT NAME: Improving the energy efficiency of multi-family residential buildings in the Kyrgyz Republic Project Objective/s: Vulnerability and Resilience Context: The project aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Kyrgyzstan by reducing the country’s overall energy demand. Based on our The project aims to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas calculations, the annual reduction of CO2 could save up to 400-450 emissions in Kyrgyzstan by means of retrofitting the building tons of CO2 /building/ year, which amounts to a total savings of enveloped of 60 multi-family residential buildings, equipping them 27,500 tons of CO2 per year. According to the Kyrgyz report “Second with automatic heating points, and initiating a revolving fund to National Communication to UNFCCC”, the total CO2 emissions in enable sustainable financing of energy efficiency refurbishments in 2005 amounted to 8847 thousand tons of CO2, which means that this future. project could reduce 0.3% of the total volume of Kyrgyzstan’s CO2 Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: emissions within the first year. After that, a gradual reduction of Buildings use about one third of all energy generated on the planet emissions is anticipated. and are strongly contributed to climate change. The definition of The project meets the objectives of national development and meets sustainable buildings is broad; sustainable buildings need to be the objectives set out in the government program on energy saving beautiful and comfortable, safe and healthy, while they also minimize and energy-efficient planning policies adopted August 25, 2015. This energy and environmental impact. Movement towards more policy defines the parameters for reducing energy intensity of sustainable and energy efficient buildings has started off. enterprises and facilities. The project is also consistent with the The continuous deterioration of buildings will further increase thermal government plans to cut 20% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, losses in buildings and will exacerbate the imminent risks of energy with appropriate financial support. and heating supply shortages in winter. The project aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Kyrgyzstan The project will serve as a successful demonstration of how to by means of retrofitting the building enveloped of 60 multi-family finance energy efficiency in multi-household residential buildings and residential buildings, equipping them with automatic heating points, will exemplify how a holistic approach could look like: building and initiating a revolving fund to enable sustainable financing of envelopes will be isolated, heating points will be installed, and energy efficiency refurbishments in future. heating bills will be calculated on the basis of real heat consumption, Project Costs: USD 10 million which in turn will incentivize energy savings. Proposed Timeframe: 3 years Financing of activities and projects will be carried out through repayment, including the savings from the implementation of energy Location / Area: saving measures. Constant reinvestment projects will accumulate Apartment buildings for thermal retrofitting will be chosen based on the new resources at the expense of cash flows that will be returned their representativeness and distribution in a chosen city area. to the fund. Project Background Justification:
Around 25% of the Kyrgyz population lives in approximately 7500 apartment buildings, the majority of which were built during the 1960-
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70s, during a time when energy efficiency was not a priority. Potential Transformative Adaptation: Consequently, an apartment building in Kyrgyzstan consumes on It is envisaged that the proposed project will drive transformational average 290-450 kWh of energy per m2 and year. This average is changes in the areas of energy efficiency in Kyrgyzstan primarily disproportionately high when compared with European benchmarks, through demand side management improvements at the apartment which usually are below 40-70 kWh/m2/year. This is also one of the level. reasons, why building sector consumes more than 50% of the country's energy supply. Evaluation:
Heating services in the building sectors commonly exhibit irrational 24. Priority: 80% usage of gas and water resources as well as thermal energy, district heating services in apartment buildings is also a major cause for 25. Benefit: 80% energy losses. The calculation method for billing of heating services fails to 26. Effectiveness: 73% incentivize energy saving in buildings. Whilst social and economic 27. Sustainability: 90% aspects effect the quality of living in Kyrgyz families, from a climate perspective, an increase of heating losses will imply intensified use EssentialCriteria 28. Country Support: 70% of fossil fuels and ultimately higher greenhouse gas emissions. Project Ranking: The project meets the objectives of national development and meets 6 of 86 the objectives set out in the government program on energy saving and energy-efficient planning policies adopted August 25, 2015. This Financing Options: policy defines the parameters for reducing energy intensity of Loans & Grants enterprises and facilities. The project is also consistent with the government plans to cut 20% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, Value Added: with appropriate financial support. UNISON has established an efficient network and good working relations with relevant state authorities, such as Gosstroy and the Adaptation Options & Measures: Ministry of Energy. Their roles are to gain and recruit the political The project will serve as a successful demonstration of how to support that is needed for this projects. Also they will leverage the finance energy efficiency in multi-household residential buildings and project to a political level. will exemplify how a holistic approach could look like: building Project Beneficiaries: envelopes will be isolated, heating points will be installed, and Direct beneficiaries of the project are residents of 60 residential heating bills will be calculated on the basis of real heat consumption, buildings, equal to 20,000 citizens. Indirect beneficiaries are the state which in turn will incentivize energy savings. authorities responsible for the implementation of buildings policies Financing of activities and projects will be carried out through (i.e. Ministry of Energy, Gosstroy, etc.), as well as public heat supply repayment, including the savings from the implementation of energy utilities. saving measures. Constant reinvestment projects will accumulate Children, women and vulnerable groups (such as old or low-income the new resources at the expense of cash flows that will be returned families) are the ones who will benefit most from this project as these to the fund. are the ones who are least able to afford sufficient heating. Health benefits through improved heating are among others, the reduction of catarrhal diseases and reduction of respiratory diseases stemming
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from humid air. Implementation Arrangements: Lead agency: The Public Foundation "UNISON”, will assume the main responsibility in performing this project. Local and international partners: Project partners will be the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy and Industry; the Kyrgyz State Agency for Architecture, Construction, Housing and Communal Services, and the two municipal enterprises “Kyrgyzjylkomunsosyus and “Bishkekteploset”. Financial Parameters: Financial feasibility analysis will be provided as part of a full proposal. Social and Environmental Impact: Negative social and environmental consequences are not anticipated. The project concept was tested in a pilot project "Promotion of energy service companies in Kyrgyzstan (ESCO-KIR.)", which was designed and implemented by Unison Foundation in 2006 for nursery schools in Naryn. Results of the project were: 24-28% of energy saving, 67% reduction of annual heating bills, and 3-year amortization period (at rates of inflation of 9%, a real interest rate of 8%). This project was awarded the ENERGY GLOBE AWARD in in 2008 in the category "National Winner". Status of Preparation: GCF Concept Note Other: Financing of activities and projects will be carried out through repayment, including the savings from the implementation of energy saving measures. Constant reinvestment projects will accumulate the new resources at the expense of cash flows that will be returned to the fund.
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PROJECT NAME: Adaptation to climate change and water stress areas, there are very limited employment opportunities outside through agroforestry and drip irrigation agriculture. So, those regions in particular depend on irrigated agriculture. Vulnerability and Resilience Context: Agriculture is by far the largest water user with 93% of the water use ✓ Avoidance of future emissions from agriculture (reduced of the country. The water source for irrigated agriculture is water energy consumption for production of fertilizers and from rivers. The river discharge is composed of glacier and snow emissions of nitrous dioxide from richly fertilized soils). melt as well as rain fall in the mountains. Snow melt largely ✓ Improved water productivity and built resilience against contributes to spring discharge, while glacier melt becomes the most draughts via efficient water use and draught resistant crops important source of discharge during summer, which is the peak ✓ Improved food security by diversifying the diet season of irrigation and thus the season with the highest demand for water. Climate change and the rapid disappearance of glaciers ✓ Improved income of vulnerable rural households through threatens this in summer water supply. diversification of plants (wheat, potato, berries, nuts, cotton & silk for textile and trees for timber and fodder) Project Objective/s: ✓ Improved water management via draught and salt tolerant It is crucial to improve water productivity and build resilience against agro forestry methods water shortage and heat waves. Improving water productivity means ✓ Capacity building via trainings, dissemination of knowledge to increase yields and income at the same amount of water and demonstration sites. consumed or consume less water for at least the same yields and income as today. Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: Irrigation infrastructure is in a bad condition in many locations of the Kyrgyzstan is a land locked country in Central Asia. Most of its area country. Irrigation methods are simple, i.e. flood and furrow irrigation, is mountainous with 94% of the area being higher than 1,000 masl and often not very efficient. Therefore, irrigation infrastructure and and 40% higher than 3,000 masl. The population is 6 million people, irrigation techniques must be improved, from current techniques to but most of the population concentrates in the lower elevations, i.e. drip or sprinkler irrigation, in order to increase water productivity and the lowlands of Bishkek region and the Ferghana Valley. In these ensure sufficient water supply to crops even under prolonged heat densely populated regions, irrigated agriculture plays a crucial role. waves. In addition, tree shelterbelts around field plots improve the The potentially irrigated area is considered 2.25 million ha. Currently local climate in agriculture so that crop yields are increased and crop about 1 million ha is under irrigation. 42% of that irrigated area is water consumption is further reduced compared to field plots without located in the Syr Darya Basin, i.e. along the Naryn River and the such tree shelterbelts. Finally, the trees provide additional sources of tributaries of Syr Darya in the Ferghana Valley. The most densely income through wood, fodder (leaves), fruits, or silk production in the populated counties, except for Bishkek City, are located in the case of mulberry. Ferghana Valley, e.g. Kara Suu County in Osh Region. Improved irrigation techniques and tree shelterbelts along the field In the Kyrgyz part of the Syr Darya Basin most food insecure margins thus help farmers adapt to water shortages and drought households are in Osh Region (22%) and Naryn Region (37%). periods as the major effects of climate change, and thus reduce While Bishkek region offers quite a number of employment vulnerability. Furthermore, tree shelterbelts help increasing crop opportunities outside agriculture, in the Ferghana Valley and rural
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yields and reduce crop water consumption, thus enhancing the Adaptation Options & Measures: climate change adaptation effects achieved by improved irrigation Drip irrigation techniques. The trees provide additional income so that the income basis for farmers will be diversified which further reduces In order to address lowland irrigated agriculture (in Aravan) and vulnerability as possible losses of crop harvest can be compensated irrigated agriculture at higher elevations (in the Naryn valley), drip by income from trees. irrigation combined with agroforestry will be installed, in order to directly improve water productivity, build resilience against droughts, Project Costs: USD 15 million and show case this approach for capacity building and further Proposed Timeframe: 5 years dissemination. Target crops will include wheat and potato, fruit and vegetable, as Location / Area: well as cotton. The decision, which fruit and vegetable to focus on, Aravan County, Osh Region, Naryn valley, Naryn Region and which amount of the three to include into each site, will be taken jointly with the land users in a participatory process. Project Background Justification: Wheat and potato are the major staple food in the country and thus Climate change projections for Kyrgyzstan predict that temperature play a crucial role for food security and income of vulnerable rural very likely will increase by 2.2°C to 5.4°C until end of the century households. Fruit and vegetables are widely traded and thus play a compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Additionally, the significant role for farmers’ income, but also play a crucial role for duration of heat waves very likely increases by 20 days by 2100. The food security by diversifying the diet. Furthermore, after Kyrgyzstan ongoing temperature increase has already been resulting in glacier joined the Eurasian Union, it is assumed that fruits and vegetable retreat, which will continue, as temperatures increase according to have a high potential for export within that union. Cotton, finally, is the current projections. Due to glacier retreat, discharge of major the starting point for textiles value chains. Also with regard to textiles, rivers in Central Asia, e.g. the Syr Darya with its headwaters, i.e. Kyrgyzstan sees improved export opportunities within the Eurasian Naryn and rivers in the Ferghana Valley, may drop by 30% so that Union. substantially less water will be available for irrigation. This decrease in available water resources is coupled with a projected increase in In the pilot communities, farmers will be supported in terms of water demand due to an increase in evapotranspiration. In particular, finance and technical support, to install and use drip irrigation and during prolonged heat waves water demand for irrigation and other sprinkler irrigation, depending on the targeted crop. Thereby, drip sectors will rise substantially. irrigation technology shall be transferred from China, in particular from Xinjiang. The major effect of climate change on irrigated agriculture is that most likely less water will be available for irrigation, while crop water For all crops in the focus area, a low to medium input of chemical demand will increase, in particular during summer and prolonged fertilizers is desired. First, high costs from high fertilizer applications heat waves. are avoided. Secondly, fertilizer application, especially nitrogen fertilizer, causes a large share of energy consumption and As irrigation plays a crucial role for agriculture, farmers will be greenhouse gas emissions that are attributed to agriculture. The exposed to extremely high vulnerability. Farmers will obtain lower reason lies firstly in the high amount of energy needed for the yields and less income or even lose their harvest completely during production of nitrogen fertilizer and secondly in emissions of nitrous years with river discharge below average and/or prolonged heat oxide, which has a global warming potential 300 times higher than waves. Thereby, farmers in the Ferghana Valley and other rural carbon dioxide, from richly fertilized soils. Thus, this intended project regions, like along the Naryn River, are exposed to higher contributes to avoiding future emissions from agriculture. vulnerability than in Bishkek region, as the dependency on farming is higher in the former region than in Bishkek region. Tree shelterbelts (agroforestry)
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The improvement of irrigation in this intended project shall be fertilizer can be at least reduced, the greenhouse gas emissions compounded with tree shelterbelts around field plots as agroforestry attributed to chemical nitrogen fertilizer can be avoided. Furthermore, system. The tree species will be determined jointly with the targeted acacia leaves can be used as fodder. communities after intensive information about the possible pool of Other fruit trees can be planted around field plots or as tree tree species. component in intercropping systems, e.g. together with vegetables. Poplars have been widely used as trees for shelterbelts because Such fruit trees obviously yield income from their fruits. they grow fast. Therefore, poplars fulfill the shelterbelts functions Within this project, new shelterbelts will be planted together with soon after planting and can be harvested after a comparatively short implementing drip irrigation. Furthermore, fields with already existing time. Poplars yield timber, which is traded and used as construction shelterbelts will be selected. For those fields, crop yields, yields of material, fuelwood, and leaves, which are used as fodder. In irrigated tree products, and the benefits of shelterbelts on the crops will be agriculture, poplars help to lower the groundwater table (bio- documented in order to use such fields as demonstration plots for drainage) and thus help to avoid soil salinization. shelterbelts and their effects in the course of trainings, capacity Mulberry trees also have been widely used as shelterbelts. building, and dissemination. Drip or sprinkler irrigation will be Mulberries have been used for silk production. Today, their leaves implemented in such older shelterbelts as well. are alternatively used as fodder. The branches that regrow every year are used as fuel wood. The trunks are not used, but could be Evaluation: used as timber for e.g. music instruments. 29. Priority: 80% Walnuts are not widely used in shelterbelts within the irrigated agriculture, but there are examples that farmers include them into 30. Benefit: 80% e.g. poplar shelterbelts in order to use their nuts and valuable timber. 31. Effectiveness: 73% Walnut trees bear the first nuts after 3-5 years, depending on the variety, and increase yields during the following years. Compared to 32. Sustainability: 83%
poplars, substantial yields and income are attained later, but more Essential Criteria 33. Country Support: 90% valuable products, nuts and Walnut timber, can be obtained. Russian Olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) is a drought and salt tolerant Project Ranking: fruit bearing tree. Its yields and associated income are lower than 6 of 86 e.g. poplar or walnut, but this tree is an option for water stressed and saline sites. In Soviet Union times, Russian Olive was combined with Financing Options: poplars in order to create shelterbelts that are less permeable to Grants wind. Value Added: Unabi (Zyzyphus jujuba) is a drought and slightly salt tolerant fruit Through this project the water productivity will be increased on pilot bearing tree, too. In the Tarim Basin in China, it was promoted as sites in the target areas. So, interventions will be carried out, that alternative to cotton. Over the past 15 years, cultivation, breeding help reducing water consumption while improving the income basis and marketing have been advanced so that farmers earn good for rural communities. Approaches and interventions that reduce money from this tree. So, looking at the experiences from China and water consumption in agriculture are urgently needed all over the at possibly targeting the Chinese market, Unabi has potential as region Central Asia. Therefore, there is great potential to showcase favorable shelterbelt tree. the interventions from this project to whole Central Asia and Acacia is a nitrogen fixing tree, so its leaves could be used as disseminate them to other regions. The major long-term outcome fertilizer avoiding costly chemical fertilizer. As chemical nitrogen
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thus would be that water consumption of agriculture is reduced on a larger scale also in downstream regions of Central Asia. Project Beneficiaries: Beneficiaries are farmers and rural communities with strengthened resilience and a wider scope of income opportunities. Local institutions, like the water users’ associations in the target areas, are beneficiaries, too, as they will be enabled to manage their resources in a way to meet the needs of communities under more adverse conditions. Implementation Arrangements: Lead agency: The Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) shall take the lead of this proposed project. Local and international partners: The Mountain Societies Research Institute (MSRI) University of Central Asia (UCA), and the World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) in cooperation with the Kyrgyz National Agrarian University. Financial Parameters: No financial feasibility analysis is available at this stage. Social and Environmental Impact: Next to its numerous positive effects, a negative effect of drip irrigation is a possible accumulation of plastic waste from the driplines on the particular field plot. Status of Preparation: Concept note Other:
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PROJECT NAME: Forestry Institutions, Restoration and Science to both enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities in Technology for Afghanistan (FIRST Afghanistan) Afghanistan to the impacts of climate change, and build the capacity of government institutions to adequately plan for and respond to the Vulnerability and Resilience Context: impacts of climate change with ecological, sustainable, and ✓ Community-based watershed management, community-based approaches. This will be achieved through the ✓ Institutional strengthening, environmental research and following three project components: advocacy, - Component 1: Institutional and technical capacity of policy- ✓ Pilot demonstrations of forest ecosystem restoration and decision-makers to address climate change risks through EbA. Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: - Component 2: Community-based watershed management More than three decades of conflict, combined with drought and using EbA approaches for increased climate-resilience of environmental mismanagement, have resulted in widespread communities. degradation of Afghanistan’s natural resource base, and weakened - Component 3: Knowledge base on forest restoration as an the country’s institutional capacity to implement environmental EbA approach in Afghanistan. policies, effectively plan for climate change, and take preventative steps to boost the country’s adaptive capacity. Eighty percent of Project Objective/s: Afghanistan’s population relies directly on the natural resource base Goal: To build Afghanistan’s capacity for community-based to meet its daily needs. However, poverty and social and economic watershed and forest management through of institutional pressures such as migration, unemployment, and land tenure strengthening, environmental research and advocacy, and pilot practices have made Afghans more vulnerable to climate change. demonstrations forest ecosystem restoration. More specifically, Afghanistan’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, Objective: To build the capacity of local communities living around livestock herding, and dry land farming makes it extremely exposed the Northern Pistachio Belt, Eastern Forest Complex and Central to climate change impacts on water availability. Highlands of Afghanistan to adapt to climate change by improving Afghanistan is ranked as extremely vulnerable to natural hazards Ecosystem-based Adaptation. and the negative impacts of climate change, meaning that the The goal and objective are aligned with national priorities of the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is among the worst in the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, particularly world. To address these serious and urgent issues the United under the Afghanistan National Development Strategy and its Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) proposes to build the National Priority Programmes on “Natural Resource Management country’s adaptive capacity through an Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Environmental Conservation” and “National Water and Natural (EbA) approach in the forestry sector that harnesses the power of Resource Management.” In addition, this project’s goal and ecosystem services to reduce land degradation, water scarcity, and objectives are in line with national legislature for the environment and risk of natural hazards in forested areas of the country. forestry sector, namely: The Forest Law, National Forestry Two target areas have been selected for the piloting of these EbA Management Policy, and Land Management Law. approaches: the Northern Pistachio Belt (NPB) and the Eastern Forest Complex (EFC). Through the proposed project, UNEP seeks Project Costs: USD 4,900,000
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Other Sources: UNEP/LDCF co-financing of USD 6,900,000 34. Priority: 93% Proposed Timeframe: January 2017 – May 2019 (29 months) 35. Benefit: 73% Location / Area: 36. Effectiveness: 100% Kabul (national-level institutional strengthening); Bamyan, Takhar and Nangahar (field-level interventions) 37. Sustainability: 70%
Project Background Justification: EssentialCriteria 38. Country Support: 70%
Decision-makers at the national, local and community levels are Project Ranking: unlikely to integrate forest ecosystems approaches into ongoing 10 of 86 development activities. In addition, there will continue to be limited knowledge and awareness of the predicted impacts of climate Financing Options: change as well as the potential for forest ecosystems approaches to Grants address these impacts. At present, local communities depending on ecosystem goods and Value Added: services provided by the forests of the NPB and EFC are The project will be managed by the UNEP Afghanistan Country increasingly vulnerable to the predicted impacts of climate change. Programme, and will be implemented by the UNEP Afghanistan There will continue to be limited capacity for planning and Country Programme in close cooperating with host government, implementing adaptation measures using forest ecosystem primarily National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), the approaches in these and other forest ecosystems in Afghanistan. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL), and the As a result, unsustainable land-use practices will continue to Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). degrade forest ecosystems in Takhar, Nangahar, and Bamyan. Such Project Beneficiaries: ecosystem degradation will continue to compromise the provision of Direct Beneficiaries: ecosystem goods and services that underpin the livelihoods of local communities. 3 provinces, 7 districts, 5 forest ecosystems, totaling 35 community forest councils and approx. 3,500 families (28,000 persons). Public Adaptation Options & Measures: officials: 5 line ministries, 3 provincial government teams, Institutional and technical capacity strengthened to address presidential office policy makers and 1 parliamentary group. 3 environment risks through improving forestry approaches in forest university departments (100 persons). ecosystems. Indirect Beneficiaries: Strengthened capacity of local communities in the Northern Pistachio Students (3,500 in 3 universities), Downstream, down-valley Belt and Eastern Forest Complex through restoration of degraded approximately 350,000 beneficiaries in improved flood control and forests. increased forest services. Potential Transformative Adaptation: National level: 3 line ministries with increased capacity to plan and A science and knowledge base on forest restoration as a forestry manage forests, and links to climate finance and technology. approach in Afghanistan is developed. Implementation Arrangements: Evaluation: Lead agency: UNEP Afghanistan is the lead agency for project execution, with financial oversight and technical guidance provided
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by headquarters in Geneva and Nairobi. Gender equity is an important aspect of the project, and will be Local and international partners: Cooperating with host integrated into all the project’s activities at a local, district, provincial government, primarily National Environmental Protection Agency and national level. (NEPA), Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL), and The project makes provision for the involvement of women through the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). the inclusion of a number of activities focused on addressing their particular needs and vulnerabilities. Project activities will focus on the Financial Parameters: traditional roles of women in Afghan society. For example, the A cost breakdown by quarter and by Output is available (total USD collection of fuelwood has traditionally been the duty of women in 4.9 million). Afghanistan and theinvolvement of women in management of forest Social and Environmental Impact: resources is thus generally culturally acceptable in Afghanistan. Consequently, women will be of central importance in the effective Afghanistan is consistently ranked among the world’s most and sustainable implementation of EbA approaches to management vulnerable countries to the negative impacts of climate change. The of forest ecosystems. The project will therefore explicitly seek the Government has increasingly recognized the urgency of addressing engagement of women in prioritising and designing project environmental and forest systems change, and this project is well- interventions. Women will be involved in the establishment and aligned with a wide range of national policies, strategies and maintenance of community nurseries and woodlots. Moreover, the legislation. demonstration of kitchen gardens will contribute to enhanced food Much of the anticipated impact of the project will arise from its security, a matter which has traditionally also been part of women’s innovativeness, which is based on the fact that: roles within local communities. The project will therefore provide ✓ Ecosystems Approach is an innovative approach that opportunities to actively and meaningfully include women in the has been proven to be cost effective in providing management of forest resources in such a way that they are able to adaptation benefits; derive significant socio-economic benefits without impinging on strongly held cultural beliefs. Finally, the success of the project in ✓ Restoring forests that are climate resilient and provide achieving this goal will be measured through gender-sensitive multiple benefits to communities is a new approach indicators included within the results framework. within Afghanistan; ✓ The species will be selected based on their ability to Sustainability provide multiple uses to local communities in the face of UNEP will work with government, academic and local partners from predicted climatic changes; the start of the project to build capacity and ensure sustainability. The sustainability of the project will be enhanced by: ✓ EbA approaches will support local communities in meeting their adaptation needs by reducing the climate ✓ Revising policies and strategies to mainstream EbA into vulnerability of forest ecosystems, improving the Afghanistan’s development planning; provision of critical ecosystem goods and services (e.g. ✓ Developing an upscaling strategy to promote the replication livelihood provision, buffering from extreme weather of EbA approaches across the country in the long term; events); and ✓ Designing and implementing adaptation measures that are ✓ Implementation of EbA interventions also yields co- tailored to local socio-economic, cultural and environmental benefits such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conditions; conservation, alternative livelihoods and poverty ✓ Building the technical and institutional capacity of national reduction opportunities. and local government to assist local communities in the
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planning and implementation of EbA approaches in forest interventions beyond the project lifespan; and ecosystems; ✓ Increasing public awareness of the impacts of environmental ✓ Providing training to local authorities, communities and user change and the benefits of EbA approaches to build eco groups to build their capacity for planning and implementing resilience. EbA approaches; Status of Preparation: ✓ Involving local communities in decision making and The project proposal is a 57-page document and is based on 53 implementation to ensure buy-in; vii) demonstrating the references. benefits of low-cost EbA approaches in supporting diverse and resilient community livelihoods; Other: ✓ Strengthening the knowledge base and providing guidelines There is a risk management plan, a knowledge management plan for designing and implementing EbA approaches; and a monitoring and evaluation plan, a visibility and public relation ✓ Establishing a long-term framework for conducting research plan in place. into climate change and EbA approaches to adaptation that will continue to monitor the costs and benefits of EbA
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PROJECT NAME: Climate Resilient Livelihood Development and The introduction of water-efficient technologies and practices Economic Diversification for Poor Rural Communities that improve the adaptive capacity for climate-resilient agricultural and livelihood systems; Vulnerability and Resilience Context: The establishment of climate focal points to facilitate climate Kyrgyzstan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate awareness, preparedness, development of an early warning variability and change in terms of exposure, sensitivity and systems at community-level; adaptability to climate change. Kyrgyzstan is particularly vulnerable due to its geographic location, mountainous topography, and its The application of a more explicit measures to build the hydro-meteorological environment. Increased risks of severe resilience in existing systems– and specifically in relation to flooding, erosion, landslides, mudflows and glacial lake outbursts improved pasture and livestock management and increased resulting from more frequent extreme weather events, changing emphasis on addressing land degradation; seasonality and rainfall patterns, increased temperature, heat waves The active inclusion of socially disadvantaged groups through a and drought pose significant new risks to the rural livelihoods and facilitative, market-driven approach in order to provide infrastructure, and particularly to communities reliant on rain-fed sustainable, long-term development and finance options; agriculture for their livelihoods and income generation. The practical integration of research learning into program Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: design to increase impact and resilience, applied research and ongoing dissemination of innovation for locally appropriate In the midst of increasing urban and rural demands on water and responses to increase awareness, advocacy and education on competing water needs (e.g. hydropower versus irrigation), the climate change; and Kyrgyz agriculture sector must improve water use efficiency in general. Climate changes will burden currently irrigated areas and The introduction of new knowledge management systems such may even outstrip current irrigation capacity due to general water as ‘knowledge hubs’ to capture experience and lessons coming shortages, which in turn could jeopardize farmer’s harvests and rural out of project implementation for application in other similar livelihoods. The core challenges of climate change adaptation and areas in the country and the region; and mitigation in agriculture is to produce more or the same level of food, Better leveraging of opportunities for innovative learning partnerships increase efficiencies, and cope with more volatile production are achieved improved for impact, visibility and scale. conditions (e.g. water and heat stress). Project Costs: As climate change affects input availability in the agricultural sector, in particular water resources, input use efficiency must increase with USD 11.25 million these productivity demands. Therefore, this project proposes to Proposed Timeframe: introduce water-efficient technologies as a means to of sustainably 5 years increasing agricultural productivity (and hence the sustainability of rural livelihoods) and building resilience to climate change impacts (i.e. adapting to future water shortages). Project Objective/s: Location / Area:
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Provinces Jalal Abad, Osh, Batken and Naryn. These provinces Program were chosen because they exhibit a high coincidence in levels of Potential Transformative Adaptation: climate vulnerability and agricultural activity. The exact villages will be determined after consultation with the village councils Adaptation for vulnerable communities requires a multi-level approach and concrete activities in various sectors to strengthen Project Background Justification: resilience and adaptive capacity, including the restructuring of water Kyrgyzstan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to alarmingly infrastructure, restoration of degraded natural resources, the high levels of poverty, especially in rural and remote areas. Rural introduction of new agricultural technologies and practices, communities in Kyrgyzstan account for more than half (64%) of the enhanced knowledge-based adaptation of existing farming and Kyrgyz population and experience specific vulnerabilities to climate pastoral systems, alternative agroforestry livelihood systems and change, both through their strong dependence on natural resources related agricultural business development, SMEs and marketing as well as through weather-dependent incomes and activities. The value chain programs. most important sectors that are relevant for rural income generation and livelihoods are agriculture, livestock/pastures and forests. Evaluation: Climate change impacts are expected not only to progressively 39. Priority: 80% increase in Kyrgyzstan over the course of this century but will also likely shift the locations where rural economic activities such as 40. Benefit: 67% agriculture, animal husbandry, and collection of forest products can 41. Effectiveness: 87% thrive. 42. Sustainability: 83% Adaptation Options & Measures:
EssentialCriteria 43. Country Support: 60%
Component I: Transformative Climate Resilient Infrastructure and Technology in the Agricultural Sector Project Ranking: - Activity 1.1: Water-Efficient Technologies 11 of 86 - Activity 1.2: CSA Livestock & Pasture Management Program Financing Options: - Activity 1.3: Water Knowledge Transfer Program Mix of grant and loan Component II: Climate Resilient Livelihoods - Activity 2.1: Agroforestry Diversification & Innovation Value Added: Program This projects emphasizes Kyrgyzstan’s capacity to transform its - Activity 2.2: Food Security, Poverty & Gender Equity current agricultural systems through advancements in climate Programs resilient agricultural practices and techniques by making technology and knowledge of innovative method and techniques accessible and - Activity 2.3: Farmer Extension Program available to farmers, enhancing opportunities for easy access to Component III: Sustainable Economic Development agriculture finance, facilitating markets and trade at all levels, - Activity 3.1: Market Access and Value Chain Development creating an enabling environment for private sector investment in the Program agricultural value chain. - Activity 3.2: Community Enterprise Development Program Project Beneficiaries: - Activity 3.3: Financing for Climate Resilient Livelihoods Beneficiaries (direct/indirect):
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✓ Low-income communities and households; ✓ Women and children (through gender equality element); ✓ Rural farmers ✓ Climate vulnerable communities in rural areas. Implementation Arrangements: Lead agency: The Public Foundation Unison Group will assume the main responsibility in performing this project. Local and international partners: Project partners will be the Kyrgyz Ministry of Agriculture and the Non-government organization Agrolead. Financial Parameters: Financial feasibility analysis has not been provided. Social and Environmental Impact: No negative project impacts are expected. Status of Preparation: Advanced concept note including a Problem tree showing the causes of vulnerability, and a Conceptual Framework. This project proposal is consistent with the Government of Kyrgyzstan’s ‘Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, in which the government delineates the state priorities in regard to climate change adaptive measures. Other:
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PROJECT NAME: Joint Forest Management lease holders and LSFEs will be established. This will create an enabling environment for small investments (mainly in-kind). Local Vulnerability and Resilience Context: people and LSFEs will receive capacity building support through This Joint Forest Management (JFM) project has strong mitigation, technical assistance provided through local NGOs and consultants. adaptation and ecosystem services benefits and increases livelihood Financial incentives linked to specific local conditions and opportunities for local people. It is well aligned with government performance will motivate participants. The private sector is further policies. The upper-watershed regulation functions of the target area involved as service and goods (seedlings) provider. will be strengthened, which has important impacts for the entire Project Objective/s: Central Asia Region. 1. To restore forest cover, provide watershed management and Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: resilience for local communities Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate 2. To develop and implement community based climate variability and change in the world because of its geographic adaptation and risk reduction measures aimed at reducing location, mountainous topography, and exposure to hydro- the impacts (and costs) of erosion, floods, landslides and meteorological influence extreme climate events. Increased risks of mudslides severe flooding, erosion, landslides, mudflows and glacial lake 3. To introduce climate-resilient livelihoods outbursts resulting from more frequent extreme weather events, 4. To reduce GHG emissions and improve carbon changing seasonality and rainfall patterns, increased temperature, sequestration heat waves and drought pose significant new risks to the rural livelihoods and infrastructure. Project Costs: The implementation of the forest sector reform is hampered by lack USD 13,000 million of institutional and human capacity and financial resources. This Proposed Timeframe: Project builds upon the mentioned reforms and provides technical 4-5 years and financial resources for their practical implementation. The local people/private sectors in the selected districts are the main target Location / Area: group. In many rural areas the main sources of income are These areas shall be determined at a later stage. subsistence agriculture and remittances from labour migration. 39% of the population lives below the national poverty line. Support of the Project Background Justification: practical implementation of the forest sector reform and increasing After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the civil war (1992- net forest areas and forest quality. Reforestation/forest rehabilitation 1997), forests have been heavily exploited leaving the country with will be partly delegated to local people (private sector) who receive less than 3% forest cover and threatening important ecosystem long-term land leasing rights and income from forestry (firewood) and services. With the recent forest sector reform, Tajikistan now has a Non Timber Forest Products. modern forest law, but its implementation is hampered by lack of Local State Forest Enterprises (LSFE) will focus on training and capacity and financial resources. Rehabilitation, conservation and supervision of lease holders. Benefit sharing mechanisms between sustainable management of natural forests can significantly
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contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation of biodiversity, enforcement and performance assessment. Further civil society improving the livelihoods of local people. It has the potential to make organizations and expert boards will assist surveillance of a substantial contribution to emissions reductions and carbon afforestation and forest rehabilitation progress. The private sector is sequestration in Tajikistan. further involved as service and goods (seedlings) provider. A National Climate Change Action Plan (2003) and an Environmental Potential Transformative Adaptation: Protection Plan (2006) are available, which highlight the land use The Project will address the systemic barriers to the forest sector sector as top priority. A National Development Strategy 2016 – 2030 reform implementation, and build national and local level institutional is in preparation, aiming to develop a green economy, including capacities to transform the entire sector to a net carbon sink climate and land use aspects. A National Forest Program (2006- development path beyond the scope of the Project. It will incentivize 2015) as well as a NAMA on Forestry (2013) were developed and local people/private sector to lease land and to actively participate in adopted. The NAMA aims to reforest 6,000 ha, and ensure forest management and trigger public and private investments into conservation and rehabilitation of 60 000 ha, saving 2.6 MtCO2 the sector. High co-benefits are expected by creating jobs and emissions in 20 years. A new and modern Forest Code was adopted generating incomes for local people. Increased forest areas will in 2011, laying the legal basis for transformation of the sector. benefit biodiversity conservation, climate change adaptation and the The activities necessary for achievement of objectives of the sector provision of ecosystem services (protection against floods, reform are outline in the strategy on the forest sector development landslides, etc.). Increased institutional capacity will help for the period of 2016 – 2030 and the Action Plan 2016- implementing and continuing the national reform processes. 2020.Implementation of JFM schemes, involvement of up to 3500 Evaluation: households and private sector in forest management and forestation are one of the key elements of that strategy. This strategy is based 5. Priority: 73 on norms of the Constitution of the Republic of Tajikistan and defines intentions, priorities and measures for reforming and development of 6. Benefit: 80 the forest sector. The current Forest Code lays the legal basis for 7. Effectiveness: 87 JFM schemes and sustainable management of Tajikistan’s forests. 8. Sustainability: 73 Adaptation Options & Measures: 9. Country 70
Reforestation/forest rehabilitation will be partly delegated to local EssentialCriteria Support:
people (private sector) who receive long-term land leasing rights and income from forestry (firewood) and Non Timber Forest Products. Project Ranking: Local State Forest Enterprises (LSFE) will focus on training and 13 of 86 supervision of lease holders and afforestation and forest rehabilitation of remote forest areas. Benefit sharing mechanisms Financing Options: between lease holders and LSFEs will be established. This will Grants create an enabling environment for small investments (mainly in- kind). Local people and LSFEs will receive capacity building support Value Added: through technical assistance provided through local NGOs and GIZ has extensive experience with JFM in Tajikistan with a pilot in consultants. Financial incentives linked to specific local conditions GBAO since 2006 and up-scaling to other 8 Districts since 2013. and performance will motivate participants. The newly established Several well trained service providers as for facilitation of JFM forest inspection will be strengthened and play a crucial role in law schemes, provision technical consultation, leasing and maintenance
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of forest machinery are available. independently from climate change scenarios. Project Beneficiaries: Status of Preparation: The project will result in improved livelihoods, watershed The concept of JFM has been tried and tested in Tajikistan since management and carbon sequestration. The Financial Assistance 2006 by GIZ. Reference can be made to similar projects, like the will provide small rural improvements such as wells, bridges, fencing current project on Adaptation to climate change through sustainable on one side and machinery to LSFE. At least 2,500 rural households, forest management (EUR 10,8 million), which has undergone equivalent to > 10,000 people in the project as contract holders and respective feasibility studies. This project will be carried out along directly beneficiaries from increased forest productivity. More than similar lines as the previous Joint Forest Management projects 7,500 households are expected to benefit from improved ecosystem carried out by GIZ and Kfw in Tajikistan. services from rehabilitated forest land. Other: The project will pay special attention to marginal groups and women GTZ (2010): Forestry Sector Analysis of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan during project implementation. They will benefit from the increased National Forestry Program 2006-2015 (2005, RUS), draft Forestry availability of Non Timber Forest Products incl. firewood. Indirect Sector Development Strategy 2016-2030; Forest Code: Chapter 10 beneficiaries all people in the watershed and beyond who benefit JFM; and Manual on JFM implementation. from a more regular river flow and from GHG reductions.
Implementation Arrangements: Lead agency: GIZ Dushanbe, which is in charge of on-going Adaptation to Climate Change. Local and international partners: The Forestry Agency of the Government of Tajikistan, District Forest Enterprises and Local NGOs with experience in the implementation of JFM.
Financial Parameters: Financial feasibility analysis will be presented as part of the full project proposal. Social and Environmental Impact: The project has strong mitigation, adaptation and ecosystem services benefits and increases livelihood opportunities for local people. It is well aligned with government policies. The upper- watershed regulation functions will be strengthened which has important impacts for the entire Central Asia Region. ✓ Climate change will be considered during planning of forestation sites and selection of climate resilient planting materials. ✓ Forest restoration has strong climate change mitigating effects and improves watershed management and livelihoods
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PROJECT NAME: Expansion and modernization of climate Proposed Timeframe: 5 Years monitoring networks, comprehensive assessment of climate risks Location / Area: and creation of an early warning system Country wide Vulnerability and Resilience Context: This project aims to expand and upgrade the existing monitoring Project Background Justification: network of climate-induced natural disasters, to improve the level of Climatic analysis all over the world indicates the existence of steady study of these processes, to develop recommendations on risk tendency of global warming. Against the background of this global reduction and to deliver the results to end user, which will enable to phenomenon, Kyrgyzstan is not an exception, and according to work out the optimal and effective measures for adaptation to natural results of the climatic data study on its territory which were presented disasters and for reducing the economic and human damage. in the First and Second National Communications, there has been a steady growth in surface air temperature. This may lead to the Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: increase a number of natural hazards directly related to climate Within the framework of the project, it is planned to implement the change and, therefore, aggravate the socio-economic problems. In following tasks: this context, socio-economic studies related to climate change are ✓ Modernization and expansion of monitoring system for the connecting link between climate sciences, in general, and climate-caused natural disaster on the territory of Kyrgyzstan political decision makers. The fundamental of the strategy for climate risk assessment should be based on high-quality scientific ✓ Study and assessment of the monitoring results, information and analysis which are impossible to get without modern development of models, forecasts and recommendations for technologies and highly qualified specialists. adaptation measures aimed to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards The need for the project is caused by lack of funding for the purposes of emergency situations prevention in the conditions of ✓ Comprehensive assessment of hazardous natural processes climate change, deterioration of material and technical base and lack and phenomena caused by climate change and related of its timely replacement, low level of supply with modern measuring natural disaster risks for territorial administrative units of equipment, communication and other technical equipment, low Kyrgyzstan density of monitoring network in the regions as well as shortage of ✓ Capacity Strengthening and Development qualified specialists and manpower turnover at the local level. Project Objective/s: The existing practice of infrastructure development planning does not 1. Comprehensive assessment of climate risks and adaptation cover forecasting and disaster risk assessment for adaptation to in the Kyrgyz Republic. possible negative consequences of climate-related natural disasters. In order to properly distribute resources aimed for adaptation, 2. Study of monitoring results using modern scientific methods, vulnerability reduction, protection from forecasted emergency and to development of adaptation measures. focus them on really critical dimensions, it is necessary to have clear Project Costs: USD 14 Million understanding of hazard extent, scale, frequency of forecasted natural disaster in the context of administrative-territorial social unit
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in the region. collective training to improve understanding of weather / climate In addition, forecast information about climate change is used by forecasts and trends in their changes, restrictions on their users often incompletely and sometimes wrongly. As a result, the widespread use and interpretation in the light of local knowledge and effectiveness of taken decisions gets significantly reduced. experience. Risk and vulnerability assessments will be made for Therefore, it is necessary to establish an information platform of clear determination of the target users of this information. Adapted knowledge and a mechanism of climate information assessment and strategies will be developed with the communities on the basis of to use them for the purpose of sustainable development. initiatives, participation and climate field schools, where feasible. Adaptation Options & Measures: Evaluation: This project aims to expand and upgrade the existing monitoring 10. Priority: 93% network of climate-induced natural disasters, to improve the level of study of these processes, to develop recommendations on risk 11. Benefit: 67% reduction and to deliver the results to end user, which will enable to work out the optimal and effective measures for adaptation to natural 12. Effectiveness: 93% disasters and for reducing the economic and human damage. 13. Sustainability: 63% One of such adaptation measures is to develop and create early EssentialCriteria 14. Country Support: 80% warning systems for disasters, aimed primarily at preserving the sustainable development of vulnerable population. Thus, the results Project Ranking: of work to be performed within the project during 5 years should 13 of 86 ensure sustainable development of the society in long-term perspective through adapting to climate risks. Financing Options: The study of these processes involves provision with modern tools Grants for monitoring (air drones), measuring instruments, special IT Value Added: programs, optical and radar satellite images. For relevant processes, it is proposed to develop and install early warning systems which The project is sustainable and useful in any socio-economic and ensure warning, in particular, via the Disaster Management Center political scenarios since it directly aims at updating and extension of (DMC), MES, about floods, lake outbursts, mudflows, landslides and disaster monitoring system, analysis of monitoring results, avalanches. development of recommendations on increasing the effectiveness of adaption actions to be taken by the Ministry of Emergence Potential Transformative Adaptation: Situations, local authorities and rescue services. This project corresponds to the national strategy of sustainable Project Beneficiaries: development, to the national program on climate change adaptation (NAP), to the strategy of comprehensive security of population and Direct beneficiaries: territory of the Kyrgyz Republic in emergency and crisis situations ✓ The Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, (approved by Decree of Kyrgyz Government dated June 2, 2012 ✓ The Department of Monitoring and Forecasting under the №357), and also complies to the Program and Plan of Government Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic of the Kyrgyz Republic on the transition to sustainable development (MES), for 2013-2017. ✓ The Emergency Management Center (EMC), MES Results of the project will support the exchange of knowledge and ✓ The Agency for Hydrometeorology at MES (Kyrgyzhydromet)
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✓ The Department of Water Resources and Land Reclamation, ✓ Universities of Zurich and Fribourg, Switzerland; Ministry of Agriculture of the Kyrgyz Republic. ✓ University of Idaho, USA; ✓ The Agency of Environmental Protection and Forestry ✓ Center for Study of global climate change, University of Indirect beneficiaries Michigan (USA). ✓ Local self-governments (LSG) ✓ Educational institutions, NGOs Financial Parameters: The local population in areas at risk through engaging in public No financial studies completed to date awareness campaign and capacity building of communities through collaborative learning, exchange of best practices, training of trainers Social and Environmental Impact: and involvement in the preparedness and response activities through Rural communities and local authorities will be authorized to deal planning and implementation of response programs. with the disaster risk management and reduction having an access Implementation Arrangements: to the necessary information, resources and opportunities to implement disaster risk reduction measures. Local community Lead agency: The lead agency will be the Central Asian Institute for members will be involved in the public awareness campaign and Applied Geosciences (CAIAG). community capacity building through collaborative learning, Local and international partners: exchange of best practices, training of trainers and involvement in The consortium of implementing organizations consists of: Agency of the preparedness and response activities through planning and Hydrometeorology under MES of KR (Kyrgyz-hydromet); Integrated implementation of response programs. hydrogeological expedition of State Agency of Geology of KR; Status of Preparation: Institute of Automatics, National Academy of Sciences of KR; Scientific Engineering Center "Geopribor", Institute of Geomechanics Concept Note and Mineral Resources Development, National Academy of Sciences Other: of KR; Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower, National
Academy of Sciences of KR (IWP and HP); "UNISON group" Foundation. Local partners include: Ministry of Economy of KR; Ministry of Emergency Situations of KR (MES); State Agency of Environmental Protection and Forestry (SAEPF); Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Melioration of KR; State Agency of Geology and Mineral Resources of KR (SAGMR); Kyrgyz National University named after J. Balasagyn; Profiling institutions of National Academy of Sciences of KR; University of Central Asia; Local self-governments (LSG); and NGOs. International partners: ✓ Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov; ✓ Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; ✓ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam; ✓ GIZ;
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PROJECT NAME: Conservation of biodiversity and improvement of The project also corresponds to the Agrarian Policy Concept Paper the environment through bee keeping of the Republic of Tajikistan (approved by the GoRT decree no 658 dd. 31 December 2008), Environmental Protection Concept Paper of Vulnerability and Resilience Context: the Republic of Tajikistan, the Environmental Protection Law, The Resilience: National Action Plan on climate change impact mitigation, the Law Proposed measures will promote the minimization of social about environmental education/training. consequences of the low living level via local economic and social Project Objective/s: development and opening of new work places, improvement of living 1. Upgrade the productivity of crop lands in the valley, to level of rural settlements in suburbs of the Jamoat Childara of multiply profits of rural people; to create new work places Tavildara rayon. 2. Provide population and needy organizations (needy families, Adaptation: boarding schools, hospitals) with valuable products of bee It will minimize the dependence of the population on food, as well as farming. strengthening of technical capacity of the rural producers, and 3. Conservation of biodiversity, improvement of ecology improve the adaptation process, in particular, in field of food through bee farming as an efficient mean of development of provision of the population. The adaptation of the working capacity of meadows and pastures, as well as motivation of natural the bee farmers in conditions of the climate change. fertilization of plants, for gardening, horticulture, grain Rehabilitation: growing. Increase of the number of bee colonies, which will result in Project Costs: USD 560,000 enrichment of the flora due to fertilization of the plants. Proposed Timeframe: 12 months Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: The bee raising is a specific type of agricultural activities, its Location / Area: importance in economy is justified by the production of the essential Tavildara rayon, Jamoat Childara food products and materials for different branches of industry. Project Background Justification: This project uses the approach targeted on local economic development, supposes participation of the rural people in the The agriculture is the main source of livelihood and incomes for 70% development of project strategy, as well as of private and state of the population of Tajikistan living in rural areas. The vulnerability interested partners. to the climate change exacerbated by the spread poverty, especially in rural areas, where 32% of the population live below the poverty The Project serves the goals of the National Development Strategy line. (NDS) and Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS), the Food Security Program (FSP) and contributes to the provision of the country with The serious impact of the climate change are felt by the countrymen, essential food products, increases incomes of agri-producers especially women, disadvantaged families and vulnerable groups, resulted on improvement of quality of their activities. migrants’ families, farmers and enterprises. Rural people cannot effectively and efficiently employ land
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resources, protect against floods, droughts, soil erosion and ✓ Conservation of biodiversity degradation due to the lack of infrastructure and financial resources. ✓ Increase revenues of the local population and support of the The ruined infrastructure of the rural settlements, lack of funds, local bee farmers target programs, donations, subsidies, lack of fair wages – all these ✓ Participation in rayon, regional and republican exhibitions on affects the possibilities of countrymen. Crop yields goes down, profits bee farming of the local inhabitants’ decreases, and rate of migration increases ✓ Active involvement of local people to joint actions on seeking for decent salaries. environmental protection and development of the biodiversity Population growth in Tajikistan requires more food resources; ✓ Provision of support to low income and vulnerable families in climate change affects the food securities and provision with food opening their own bee business, giving them bee families products, it is necessary to raise the level of knowledge and and bee boxes and providing professional advice until agricultural production capacity, expansion of the activities on achievement. capacity building of the farmers on development of production, access to the existing financial resources via attraction of Potential Transformative Adaptation: investments. The serious impact of the climate change are felt by the countrymen, The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan has approved the especially women, disadvantaged families and vulnerable groups, program on bee farming development in the Republic of Tajikistan migrants’ families, farmers and enterprises. for 2011-2016 with its decree no 418 dd.02.09.2010. Current Law Rural people due to the lack of infrastructure and financial resources regulates the relationship in field on production of bee farming cannot effectively and efficiently employ land resources, protect products, protection, use and raising bees, and their effective against floods, droughts, soil erosion and degradation. application in fertilization of agricultural crops and all flora, creation of conditions for increase of productivity of bee farming, as well as crop Beekeeping is a low-investment/high return opportunity to generate production, provision of warranties for provision of rights and income enhance increase resilience. In addition, it has multiple co- interests of physical and legal entities, operating in bee farming. benefits. The project is supported by the Ministry of Agriculture, local people Evaluation:
and the team of professionals working at the Tavildara Bee Farmers 15. Priority: 80% Support Center (TBFSC). Adaptation Options & Measures: 16. Benefit: 60% ✓ Rehabilitation and raising of bee families with an aim to 17. Effectiveness: 80% develop a base at the account of TBFSC and provide low income and disadvantaged groups with bee farming utensils, 18. Sustainability: 80% equipment, and provide advice on the process up to the EssentialCriteria 19. Country Support: 80% achievement of the outputs. ✓ Create additional work places in the field of fee keeping Project Ranking: ✓ Achievement of fertilization of crops lands with help of bees, 13 of 86 which improves yields of crops, potatoes, fruits, etc. Financing Options: ✓ Increase the level of knowledge on advance methods of bee Grants raising/farming
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Value Added: too small quantities. For example, apple-trees and pear-trees get 1- 2% of fruits and seeds, buckwheat and red clover formats 0.5-1% of Apart from honey and bee wax production, fertilization of crops is an seeds. At the same time, the produced seeds and the plants important co-benefit of bee keeping. developed from these seeds are less resilient. The same happens Project Beneficiaries: with those plants, which by selection are transformed from cross- The project benefits the interests of vulnerable groups of population, fertile into self-fertile ones. such as women and elderly people. For example, the project intends: Status of Preparation: ✓ To attract rural people, especially women, girls and bee The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan has approved “The raising experts to bee farming and improvement of program on bee farming development in the Republic of Tajikistan meadows, as an effective mean of conservation of for 2011-2016” with its decree no 418 dd.02.09.2010. Current Law biodiversity, increase yields and level of incomes of the local regulates the relationship in field on production of bee farming people and members of TBFSC. products, protection, use and raising bees, and their effective ✓ To train countrymen, especially women and girls in bee application in fertilization of agricultural crops and all flora, creation of raising on demonstration sites and production training conditions for increase of productivity of bee farming, as well as crop complex of TBFSC during workshops. production, provision of warranties for provision of rights and interests of physical and legal entities, operating in bee farming. Implementation Arrangements: Ministry of Agriculture is in charge of implementation of this program. Lead agency: The leading organization in execution of the project is the Ministry of agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan in Other: cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture. The main issue and risk in bee keeping is the bad weather Local and international partners: Tavildara bee farmers support conditions. Draughts or rains can have negative impact on honey center; Academy of agricultural sciences of RT, the State agrarian collection. To minimize this risk, the nomadic method of movement of university of Tajikistan after Sh. Shotemur; Association of the social beehives to more favorable areas is used. protection of population “Surhob”; International Labour Organization. The other problem which the bee farmers faced with is the numerous enemies of bees among mammals, birds, crawlers, amphibians, Financial Parameters: insects, spiders, worms and protozoa. They take nests of bees, eat Financial feasibility analysis has not been prepared at this stage their food, and eat bees, breed and honeycombs.
Social and Environmental Impact: There are no negative impacts expected. The society and environment benefits from the project implementation in many aspects: The cross-fertilization of flowers by bees, which is the most essential conditions for increase of yields of the entomophilic plants and trees, is more often breached or even excluded. This is replaced neither by fertilizers nor by irrigation or any other agro-technological means. Numerous tests of scientists in field of biology and agronomist proved that the entomophilic plants without cross-fertilization by bees and other insects, seeds or fruits are not formatted or formatted in
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PROJECT NAME: Ghoja Ghar Irrigation and Hydropower dam throughout the country was damaged during the war years. Out of the 475 MW generation capacity originally installed (261 MW hydro, 151 Vulnerability and Resilience Context: MW thermal and 63 MW diesel) 205 MW was destroyed or damaged Afghanistan is considered one of the most vulnerable countries in the during the war and now only about 270 MW is available from plants world to climate risks. The main constraint to development of which are old and in frail condition. sustainable large scale agriculture in Afghanistan is lack of timely and Irrigation reliable sources of water, although total water availability annually is Stream flow analysis indicates that the 30m dam could irrigate between substantial, and at places, exceeds the actual needs. Many of the rivers and streams in Afghanistan have their peak flow in spring and early 4,162 and 5,322 hectares of land versus 2,600 hectares for current summer, but often these rivers do not have any water during late conditions without a dam. summer and early fall when water is required for the irrigation Even Flood Protection Helmand River, with a large basin area, flows essentially for 3 months and Hari Rud, for 5 months. An important feature is that the flows in river and streams in the summer months are as 4-5 times the mean monthly flows and up to 10 Project Concept/Investment Opportunity: times the mean daily flows. This results in almost all the rivers and their The irrigation systems in Afghanistan can broadly be divided in to two tributaries experiencing flooding of considerable magnitude, either main parts; the traditional community-managed systems and the formal during spring or in summer, resulting in substantial flood damage. The irrigation systems. At present, irrigation infrastructure in Afghanistan is UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance has reported that between 1976 in a serious state of disrepair and requires large scale rehabilitation. and 2001 there were 31 floods, which affected 1.4 million people, New systems through large, medium and small schemes need to be caused damage to the tune of USD 414 million and killed 18,700 developed for facilitating irrigated agriculture. Development and people. These floods affected almost all the provinces and river basins. regulation, of the rivers and streams is necessary to facilitate water The flood in 1978 affected 271,000 people in the Central and the supply throughout the year, mitigate flood damages and generate Eastern Regions and caused damage to the tune of USD 52 million. A hydropower. flood in 1988 affected Badakhshan, Baghlan, Herat, Kabul, Jouzan, Hydropower Samangan, Takhar provinces, killed 6,800 people and affected another 160,000, pervious and caused damage of USD 260 million. The current power sector in Afghanistan is recovering slowly after being in an extremely dilapidated condition, with many of the plants and Appropriate development and regulation of the rivers to reduce flood equipment severely damaged in course of the 23 years of war. Limited flows is extremely urgent to prevent loss of life and mitigate flood power supply is presently available in Kabul and the secondary cities. damage. Multi-purpose use of water appropriately is one of the keys to There are four distinct networks; the Northern area encompassing overcome the current problems of poverty, food shortage and economic Mazar-e-Sharif and Kunduz; the Western area based around Herat; the development. Central area around Kabul and Jalalabad; and the Southern area Project Objectives: around Kandahar. The main objective of this project is to provide reliable water for the The existing electrical system is a mixture of voltage levels. A existence and potential new agriculture areas, generation of the significant portion of the transmission and distribution network hydropower for the local community who are currently living there. In
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this context, construction of small and medium dams would facilitate According to Global climate models indicates temperature increase in availability of better irrigation facilities, better flood control, encourage the central area are predicted to be of the order of between 2-5 hydro-electric power production and improve water supply to the degrees of Celsius by the end of the century. nearby villages, and also avoid the immigration of the local population living there. Additionally, models indicated falling rainfall concentration throughout much of the region, including significant change in summer rainfall and Project Costs: USD 20.8 million an increase in the number of extreme rainfall fall events with intensity Proposed Timeframe: To be decided as well frequency increasing. Due the increasing of the temperature most of the glaciers are disappear and, snow has been melting before Country: Afghanistan the pervious time now it has been melting one and half months earlier than before Location / Area: The northwest of Takhar province. The project will have a significant climate change adaptation impact, The project is located in northwest of Takhar province at elevation of both directly and locally through the implementation of the project. 505 masl on the Kokcha river. The geographic location of the project is Increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable 37.057 N and 69.405 E. The Khoja Ghar site ‘s drainage area is 591 people, communities and regions, increased resilience of infrastructure square kilometers. It is located about 27 kilometers downstream of the and the built environment to climate change threats and increase in Proposed Sach Magh site there is cultivated land upstream and generation and use of climate information in decision-making through a downstream of the site. The site’s proximity is predominately rural with systematic mainstreaming approach for climate change adaptation into the nearest settlement Khwaja Ghar, located 1.9 km downstream of the infrastructure planning. site. There is an existing large area of cultivated land 2 km east of the site which is fed by the Kokcha River, but during the high flow season Adaptation Options & Measures: the traditional canal which diverts the water to the irrigation area has There are over 4,000 hectares of cultivated land downstream of the been damaged and when the farmers need the water there is no water project Site. Stream flow analysis indicates that the 30 m dam could in the canal and all the agriculture land is become dry in throughout the irrigate between 4,162 and 5,322 hectares of land versus 2,600 year. hectares for current conditions without a dam.
Project Background Justification: Potential Transformative Adaptation: Located in one of the world’s arid and semi-arid climate with perennial Power generation is possible throughout the year except in March, and seasonal rivers with largely high lying topography, the country has when the dam will be operated for irrigation. The stream flow for the always been exposed to natural calamities like floods, droughts and site was estimated to support power generation at an average of 2,314 cyclones. Over the past decade, natural disasters have caused MW. important economic losses of an estimated annual average of 5 percent of GDP (World Bank 2010) and a significant loss of life. A warmer and dryer climate is expected to exacerbate these adverse impacts. Since the 1950s, the mean annual temperature across Central West Asia Evaluation: rose between 1.2-2.1 degrees Celsius, significant greater than the global increase of 0.47 degrees Celsius. This trend is expected to 16. Priority: 100% continue into the future, and is expected to adverse influence economic 17. Benefit: 73%
growth in Afghanistan.
al al Criteria Essenti 18. Effectiveness: 80%
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19. Sustainability: 67% and heating their homes during the winter. 20. Country Support: 70%
Project Ranking: 12 out of 86 Financing Options: Loans Outputs and Beneficiaries: ✓ Tangible outputs will be:
✓ Supply Irrigation water for existing 2,600 ha irrigation area ✓ Provide reliable water to irrigate 2,722 ha new irrigation area ✓ Hydropower generation of 2,314 MW ✓ Improvement of the environment and the creation of forests ✓ Increase job opportunity for the local people ✓ Contribute to the national food security (increase production of crops) ✓ Prevent the immigration of the surrounded people in the project area. Financial Parameters: Initial Dam Capital Cost USD 20,779,200 Annual O&M cost USD 2,077,920 Annual Incremental Benefits USD 3,601,594 EIRR 17% Social and Environmental Impact: Environmental and social impact assessments will be carried out as part of the feasibility study.
Status of Preparation: Concept note based on pre-feasibility study. Other: Risks and obstacles: Most of people in project site is relaying on agriculture for their incomes, but in some years when their land is being destroyed by the flood or affected by drought, they face with a lot of difficulties. In addition, people do not have access to clean energy for home lighting
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APPENDIX 3: WORKING GROUP TOR
Background The TA-8119 REG: Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia study aims to assess the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. It involves the analysis of: the biophysical impacts of climate change in Central and West Asia; the estimation of the total economic loss to the countries in the region toward the year 2100 (taking into account the different scenarios and impacts projected across vulnerable sectors); and an estimation of the magnitude of funding required for adaptation measures necessary to avert such potential losses. One of the final outputs will identify climate change adaptation investment opportunities in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. It will identify priority investments, policy needs, and financing options in each country suitable for incorporation into their respective national adaptation plans. It is proposed to establish Working Groups to assist the project team to identify adaptation investment proposals for the water resources and energy sectors to be developed in each country. These projects will be selected at the Mid-term Workshop from a long list of project concepts, using Multi-Criteria Analysis. A Working Group on the ‘Economics of Climate Change Adaptation’ (herein after called the ECCA Working Group) will be established for each country to support the Cardno National Project Team to identify, select and elaborate potential investment project proposals for adaptation for the water and energy resource sectors. Two sub-groups will be formed within the Working Group specifically to bring focus to these two sectors. Aims & Objectives The ECCA Working Group aims at supporting the Cardno National Project Team to identify, select and elaborate potential investment project proposals for adaptation in the water and energy resource sectors. In this context, the objectives of the Working Group are to: • Facilitate stakeholder participation in the identification, selection and elaboration of adaptation investment proposals for the water resources and energy sectors to be developed in each country; • Support climate change priorities, policies, strategies and project proposals on Adapting to Climate Change for Afghanistan, Tajikistan or the Kyrgyz Republic; and • Contribute to other cross sector country or regional aspects of the study relating to climate change adaptation and resilience. Membership: To maximize the usefulness of the Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia study across all sectors and in all countries, the Working Group shall comprise 7 to 9 members with expertise in the area of climate change adaptation, climate change economics and Disaster
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Risk Reduction. The sub-groups for water and energy will be made up of between 3-5 specialists from those sectors respectively. The members of the Working Group shall be selected from expressions of interest received as a result of the request for nominations at the Inception Workshop, by a selection panel comprising the project Focal Point/s and the Cardno project team. It will include members representing: governments, policy makers, public bodies, relevant international organizations, NGOs, professional organizations, sector associations and representative bodies. The Cardno National Team Leader will chair the Working Group, and will be responsible for preparing and facilitating monthly meetings, developing meeting agendas and recording and circulating the Minutes of Meetings. The national specialists for water and energy will lead the sub working groups for their respective areas. Key Activities & Outcomes The Working Group’s timeframe is from August 2015 to July 2016. Within this period the following activities and outcomes have been identified for the Working Group: • Facilitate the exchange information and foster communication between and amongst key stakeholders; • Provide advice to the consulting team on possible projects and options for social, economic, environmental and infrastructure adaptation issues in the energy and water sector; • Review existing project proposals and provide advice on their feasibility and effectiveness and priority to the consulting team; • Prepare a list of regional, national and where possible sub-national climate change adaptation project initiatives that may be suitable for consideration under the project; • Facilitate discussion on the cost, benefits and feasibility of adaptation measures, in particular on adaptation measures for the water and energy sectors; • Facilitate a process of consultations, workshops and meetings to review and select 10 or more project investment proposals for elaboration and future development in [Tajikistan, Afghanistan or the Kyrgyzstan Republic]; and • Elaborate proposals that are reflective of national and regional priorities and needs.
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APPENDIX 4: CCRA TRAINING PARTICIPANTS
Kyrgyzstan CCRA Training Workshop 29 of July 2016, Park Hotel, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan
No. Name Position/Organisation 1. 1Sazbakov A. Deputy Minister Ministry of Economy 2. 3Abdrahmanov K. Ministry of Economy of the Kyrgyz Republic 3. 4Shamshiev N. Head, Department of Macroeconomic Policy Ministry of Economy 4. 6Djailoobaev A. Manager of water recourses projects Department of water economy 5. 7Bekkulova Dj. Head, Division of Strategy and Policy State Agency on Environment Protection and Forestry 6. 8Kulov K. Director, Scientific Research Institute on Irrigation 7. 9Aleksandrovskaya E. State Agency for Hydrometeorology 8. 1Kasymova V. Member of the Supervisory Board Ministry of Energy and 0 Industry 9. 1Kojogulov N. Director, Department of the Ministry of agriculture and water 2 economy 10. 1Duishenova J. State Agency on Environment Protection and Forestry 4 11. 1Sadykova Ch. RCE Kyrgyzstan Ministry of Judges 5 12. 1Shamsutdin Ch. Ministry of Health 7 13. 1Maralbaev T. ARIS, Kyrgyz Republic's Community Development and 8 Investment Agency 14. 2Kazakova E. Kalinin hydroelectric power station ltd. 2 15. 2Karamoldoev J. Head Department Climate, water and natural recourses, 3 Academy of Social Relationships 16. 2Raimbekov N. The National institute for strategic studies of the Kyrgyz 9 Republic 17. 3Omurzakov A. The National institute for strategic studies of the Kyrgyz 0 Republic 18. 3Puzikova A. The National institute for strategic studies of the Kyrgyz 1 Republic 19. 3Zhusupov M. Department of water economy Ministry of Agriculture and 2 melioration 20. 3Kozhoev E. Kyrgyz Research Institute of Irrigation (KRII)
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3 21. 3Torobekov U. State Agency for Hydrometeorology 6 22. 3Mavlyanbekov Sh. Deputy Director Kyrgyz Scientific and Technical Center 7 23. 3Prof. Aidaraliev A. President International University of Kyrgyzstan 8 24. 3Jusumambet u. Aibek Department of water economy Ministry of Agriculture and 9 Melioration 25. 4Zhantaev K. Director of Department, State agency on environment 0 protection and forestry 26. 4Litvak R. Head, Ground Water Modelling and Hydroeconomy Problems 1 Laboratory, Kyrgyz Research Institute of Irrigation 27. 4Begaliev A. Ministry of Economy 3 28. 4Lipkin Hydroelectric power station "Zhuuku" 4 29. 4Kiazova A. State Agency on Environment Protection and Forestry 8
Tajikistan
No. Name Position/Organisation 30. 1Zuhro Muhtorova Head, Agriculture and Environment Department Ministry of Economic Development & Trade 31. 2Dilshod Umarov Director, State Enterprise Ministry of Energy & Water Resources 32. 3Rauf Yuldoshev Director, Scientific information center of the Intergovernmental commission of water apportioning, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources 33. 4Vali Qurbonov Head of the hydrometeorology unit Environmental Protection Committee 34. 5Jamshed Abdushukurov Leading specialist Institute on water issues, hydro energy and environment, Academy of science of RT 35. 6Galina Ergasheva Associate Professor Danghara National University 36. 8M. Karimov Head of the work hygiene unit, State inspection, epidemiology & sanitation department Ministry of health & social protection of RT 37. 1Nodira Odinaeva Specialist, Institute on water issues, hydro energy and 0 environment, Academy of science of RT
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Afghanistan
No. Name Position/Organisation 38. Mojtaba Haidari Minister of Energy and Water Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 39. Sayed Rasekhudin Water Program Department Hashemi 40. Lutfullah Amarkhail Water Program Department
Tajikistan CCRA Training Workshop 21st September 2016, Dushanbe, Tajikistan № Name Organization Tajik Hydro-technology and Irrigation R&D Institute (NIGIM), Ministry of Energy and Water Resources 1. Mr. Aliev Qodir Alievich Head of the unit for “Water resources and cadastre” unit 2. Mr. Sharipov Sharof Head of the amelioration unit 3. Mr. Madiev Saadi Head of the unit for personnel development unit 4. Mr. Hamidjanov Habibon Head of the water management unit 5. MS Razoqova Gulafruz Scientific secretary 6’ MS Sharifova Dilafruz Senior specialist of the water management unit Environmental protection committee under the Government of RT 7. Mr. Mukimov Saidullo Main specialist of the state expertise department 8. Mr. Nasirova Zulfia Main specialist of the international unit 9. Mr. Sudurov Usmon Head of the expertise unit 10. Mr. Vatanov Jamshed Main specialist of the flora and fauna unit 11. Mr. Khamidov Anvar National expert, PPCR 12. Qurbonov Vali Head of the hydrometeorology unit, environmental protection committee Institute for water problems, hydro energy and ecology of the Academy of Sciences of RT
13. Ms. Odinaeva Nodira Senior research assistant 14. Ms. Osyonova Larisa Senior research assistant State unitary enterprise “KMK” 15. Mr. Radjabov Radjabali Chief of the investment unit of “Toikobdehot” 16. Mr. Mustafaqulova Zuhro Economist 17. Mr. Damonov Firdaws Engineer 18. Mr. Islomov Muhammad Civil engineer
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19. Mr. Ismoilov Tojiddin Water supply and sanitation engineer Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense 20. Kamolov Jamshed Head of population and territories protection department 21. Kozlova Olga Head of the unit Ministry of Agriculture RT 22. Khaidarov Z Ministry of Agriculture
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