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2018 Comparative Analysis of the Federal Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems: Gulf of Mexico International Comparison

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2018 Comparative Analysis of the Federal Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems: Gulf of Mexico International Comparison OCS Study BOEM 2018-xxx 2018 Comparative Analysis of the Federal Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems: Gulf of Mexico International Comparison U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Bureau of Land Management OCS Study BOEM 2018-xxx 2018 Comparative Analysis of the Federal Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems: Gulf of Mexico International Comparison November / 2018 Authors: Irena Agalliu Aube Montero Stephen Adams Shawn Gallagher Prepared under contract 140M0118F0028 By IHS Global, Inc. 15 Inverness Way East Englewood, CO 80112 U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Bureau of Land Management DISCLAIMER Study concept, oversight, and funding were provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) under Contract Number 140M0118F0028. This report has been technically reviewed by the Department of the Interior, and it has been approved for publication. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the U.S. Government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. REPORT AVAILABILITY To download a PDF file of this report, go to the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Energy Economics, External Studies website (https://www.boem.gov/Energy-Economics- External-Studies/). CITATION Agalliu I, Montero A, Adams S, Gallagher S, 2018. 2018 Comparative Assessment of the Federal Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems. Sterling, VA U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. OCS Study BOEM 2018-xxx. 293 p. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to acknowledge Gina Hsieh, Emilie Gubian, Tabitha Bailey, Simon Bromfield- Young, Jonathan Stephens, Abhishek Verma and Inga Shamsutdinova for the tremendous effort in collecting information and developing the cost and economic models for this study. Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ viii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ....................................................................................................... xi Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 E.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 E.2 Approach and Scope of Work ............................................................................................................. 1 E.3 Fiscal and Contractual/Lease Terms .................................................................................................. 2 E.4 Changes in Fiscal Terms .................................................................................................................... 3 E.5 Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Systems ............................................................................................ 6 E.6 Alternative Fiscal Systems ................................................................................................................ 23 E.7 Comparative Analysis of Alternative Fiscal Systems........................................................................ 25 E.8 Discretionary Royalty Relief .............................................................................................................. 32 E.8 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 33 1 Context and Scope............................................................................................................................ 36 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 36 1.2 Approach and Scope of Work ..................................................................................................... 40 1.2.1 Jurisdictional Selection and Field Sizes .............................................................................. 40 1.2.2 Exploration and Development Cost and Price Scenarios ................................................... 44 1.2.3 Organization of the Report .................................................................................................. 47 2 Characteristics of Fiscal Systems Reviewed ................................................................................. 48 2.1 Fiscal and Contractual/Lease Terms .......................................................................................... 48 2.1.1 Types of Contractual and Fiscal Systems ........................................................................... 48 2.1.2 Key Components of Government Take ............................................................................... 50 2.2 Acreage Award Criteria ............................................................................................................... 56 2.2.1 Cash Bonus Bidding ............................................................................................................ 59 2.2.2 Work Commitments ............................................................................................................. 60 2.2.3 Other Bid Factors ................................................................................................................ 60 2.3 Exploration and Production Terms .............................................................................................. 61 2.3.1 Block Sizes .......................................................................................................................... 61 2.3.2 Contract Duration ................................................................................................................ 61 2.3.3 Relinquishment Obligations ................................................................................................ 63 2.3.4 Domestic Market Obligations .............................................................................................. 63 i 2.3.5 Decommissioning and Abandonment Requirements .......................................................... 64 3 Exploration and Production Activity Overview .............................................................................. 70 3.1 Exploration and Development Activity ........................................................................................ 70 3.2 Assessment of Offshore Undiscovered and Undeveloped Resource Potential .......................... 77 3.3 Exploration and Development Costs ........................................................................................... 81 4 Trends in Fiscal Terms since 2014 .................................................................................................. 86 4.1 Changes in Fiscal Terms ............................................................................................................ 86 4.1.1 Going with the Trend ........................................................................................................... 89 4.1.2 Going Against the Trend ..................................................................................................... 97 4.2 Industry Response ...................................................................................................................... 98 4.2.1 Impact of Measures in the United Kingdom ........................................................................ 99 4.2.2 Impact of Measures in Brazil ............................................................................................. 100 4.2.3 Impact of Measures in the U.S.......................................................................................... 100 4.2.4 Impact of Measures in Canada ......................................................................................... 102 4.2.5 Impact of Fiscal Measures in other Jurisdictions .............................................................. 103 5 Comparison and Ranking of U.S. Fiscal System ......................................................................... 104 5.1 Approach ................................................................................................................................... 104 5.2 Comparative Analysis of Oil and Gas Fiscal Systems .............................................................. 106 5.2.1 Shallow Water Comparative Analysis – Government Take .............................................. 107 5.2.2 Shallow Water Comparative Analysis – Investor Rate of Return (IRR) ............................ 113 5.2.3 Shallow Water Comparative Analysis – Net Present Value per BOE (NPV/Boe) ............ 115 5.2.4 Shallow Water Comparative Analysis – Expected Monetary Value (EMV) ...................... 116 5.2.5 Deepwater Comparative Analysis – Government Take .................................................... 117 5.2.6 Deepwater Comparative Analysis – Internal Rate of Return (IRR) ..................................
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