IHS ENERGY Oil & Gas Risk Service Why IHS Energy Oil and Gas Providing a global view of Risk Service? comparative investment risks in • An oil & gas industry - focused approach to risk assessment across the upstream oil and gas sector 130 producing and frontier territories. Analysis and monitoring of above-ground • Created and produced by factors that affect the profitability of E&P capital sector experts. investments and continuing operations. • Designed specifically for use in oil & gas industry workflows The Oil and Gas Risk Service (OGRS) provides executives in corporate strategy - from new business and risk management, business development and new ventures, and corporate to strategy to portfolio security with forward-looking analysis on above-ground petroleum sector risks in and risk evaluation. hydrocarbon producing and frontier countries. OGRS analysis is built around our proprietary risk methodology, which evaluates 130 countries and territories against 21 factors to offer clients an objective and systematic way to compare risk between Clients Receive: countries and at different stages of the investment cycle.

• Timely, essential OGRS clients receive timely briefs and research notes on current events and expert analysis, developments influencing the above-ground upstream risk environment, incorporating IHS as well as in-depth special reports and quarterly presentations. These features Energy data, work together to create a comprehensive view enabling clients to understand, forecasts and mapping tools. manage and mitigate risk in new country entry, project assessment, portfolio evaluation, and strategic planning. • Insight into the dynamics shaping policy choices in producing countries and emerging exploration frontiers.

• Identification of future points of risk and the impact on upstream investment.

• Comparative risk benchmarking tool customizable to client interest.

• Access to a team of regional energy experts. Risk Benchmarking and Commentaries to enable systematic screening, portfolio evaluation and assessments • Provides comparative scores for 130 major oil and gas producing countries and frontier states across 21 risk factors with commentary, key drivers and assumptions. • Draws on a rating methodology developed in collaboration with industry, including analysis of policy implementation, political and economic drivers, energy fundamentals, regulatory framework and susceptibility to hydrocarbon sector shocks. • Captures metrics relating to existing investor success and experience in access, approvals, contract stability and government relations. • Adjustable weightings enable clients to create a customised view to focus on relevant risks to support new country entry, project evaluation or portfolio assessment.

Petroleum Sector Risk Inputs

Hydrocarbon Hydrocarbon Country Country Hydrocarbon Sector Sector Politics Economics Sector Entry Operations Shocks

• State Capacity • Transfer Risk • International • Sanctity of Contract • Export Risk Openness • Political Legitimacy • Primary • Regulatory Burden • Facility and Fiscal Balance • Government Take Personnel Violence • Political Violence • Civil Society Risk • Real Per • Expeditiouness of • Ministerial / • Geopolitical Risk • Corruption Capita GDP Growth Contract Policy Volatility • Rule of Law • Level of Development • State / NOC Role • Labour Unrest

Research Notes and Briefs to assess future implications of critical developments

• Essential expert analysis, provided as events warrant and incorporating IHS Energy data, forecasts and maps.

• Going beyond the conventional wisdom - an independent, structural view of factors driving state behaviour and impact on upstream investment and operating climate.

Special Reports & Quarterlies to identify trends that will shape the above-ground risk environment

• Detailed analysis of emerging trends affecting investors in hydrocarbon-producing and frontier states.

• Regular assessments of major changes in the upstream investment environment expected over the next 12-18 months. Recent topics have included: Impact of low oil prices on above ground risk; Evolution of boundary disputes affecting E&P; The influence of the competitor mix on countries’ ability to weather low oil prices. 1028-ML-1215 © 2016IHS.All rightsreserved. IHSandthe logoare trademarks ofIHS. Email: [email protected] Oil &Gas RiskService Team www.ihs.com For more information • • • Competitor Environment • • • Energy Fundamentals • • • Government PolicyandDecision-Making mix ofthelargest producing countries. Detailing theenergy sectorpriorities,institutions,hydrocarbon economics andcompetitor and thecompetitive environment Profiles toprovideCountry insightonoilandgaspolicydrivers versus thedomesticNOC,where applicable. Details thecountry’s reliance onforeign investors long-term production prospects andvice versa. the importance ofacompany toacountry’s Offers visibility on country-company dynamics; with forecasts ontheexpected evolution over time. existing production andnewproduction growth along Provides anoverview ofcompanies involved in company non-payment. reserves withaview totheimpactonenergy Evaluates thelevel ofdebtandavailability of and outlookfor exports. balance, theability tocover domesticneeds Provides asnapshot ofthenear-term energy policy pressure points. into thestate’s reliance onthesectorandpotential country’s fiscalandtradebalances, givinga window Assesses therole oftheoilandgassectorin shaping government energy policypriorities. Identifies theprimarypreoccupations andchallenges (NOC), where applicable. bodies andtherole oftheNationalOilCompany Includes adiscussionofprimarydecision-making key objectives. and anevaluationofitsabilitytodeliver strategic approach totheoilandgassector Provides anoverall assessmentofthestate’s

32 countries around theworld. sustainable, profitable growth andemploys more than8,800people in Headquartered inEnglewood, Colorado, USA,IHSiscommitted to a publiclytradedcompany ontheNewYork StockExchange in2005. speed andconfidence. IHShasbeeninbusiness since 1959andbecame methods ofIHStomake high-impactdecisionsand develop strategieswith comprehensive content, expert independentanalysisandflexible delivery governments inmore than165countries around theglobe rely on the in criticalareas thatshapetoday’s businesslandscape.Businessesand IHS (NYSE: IHS)istheleadingsource ofinformation, insightandanalytics ABOUT IHS(WWW.IHS.COM) Source: IH To Source: IHS.Note:EGPCandEGASarenotincludedinthischart. Algeria PetroleumExportsandT Egypt CompetitorDynamics Size ofbubbleisthevolumeoutputperda Source: IHS Algeria Petroleum ExportsandTrade Balance Algeria upstream decision-makingstructure Egypt CompetitorDynamics -20

tal productioncalculationfor“ % of GDP Share of Company’s 20 40 60 0 Ministry ofEnergy andMines policy-making Strategic sector President Executive power Total Oil and Gas Production Naftal, Sonelgaz Domestic supply and exports E&P, sub-contracting -10 2005 Account Balanc Algeria Current BP plc BG Groupplc Apache Corporation Algeria T 10 20 30 0 S 1% 2006 otal Imports 2% 2007 e Share ofcountry’sT 3% 2008 2009 4% oil” and“o LUK KPC S.p.A 2010 5% OIL rade Balanc Algeria Exports,Other Algeria PetroleumExports

il andgas”doesnotincludenaturalgasliquids. 2011 otal OilandGasProduction 6% y 2012 7% Chemical Corporation China Petroleum& Royal DutchShell Petrona e 2013 8% s 2014 9% 2015 Oversight Operational and approval Policy Oversight 10% Parliament (Pouvoir) and Informal regime ARH, al-Naft 2016 11%

2017 @2016 IHS 12% 2018

13% 2019