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Bulgaria and the World 2019 EASC Annual Analysis English Edition

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Bulgaria and the World 2019 EASC Annual Analysis English Edition 1 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY CENTER ANNUAL ANALISYS 2 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 EASC Research Council Tsvetan Tsvetanov, President of the EASC Management Board, President of the EASC Research Council Prof. Rumen Kanchev, PhD, DrSc Prof. Evelina Kelbecheva, PhD Prof. Emilia Zankina, PhD Maj. Gen. (ret) Sabi Sabev, PhD Rosen Yordanov Hristo Hristov Eng. Hristo Kazandzhiev Editorial Team for “Bulgaria and the World 2019” Tsvetan Tsvetanov, President of the EASC Management Board Prof. Rumen Kanchev, PhD, DrSc, editor-in-chief and compiler Prof. Evelina Kelbecheva, PhD, scientific editor Sofiya Petkova, EASC Executive Director © Tsvetan Tsvetanov, Rumen Kanchev, Sabi Sabev, Hristo Kazandzhiev, Ivan Hinovski, Nikolay Krastev, Sofia Petkova, Hristo Hristov, Evelina Kelbecheva, authors © Damyan Damyanov, design © Ciela Norma Ltd. Sofia 2020 ISBN: 78-954-28-3220-1 3 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 ANNUAL ANALYSIS 4 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 Foreword 5 CONTENTS Foreword Tsvetan Tsvetanov, President of the EASC Management Board ........................................ 9 Chapter 1: The Global Security Environment and Its Dynamics in 2019 Prof. Rumen Kanchev, PhD, DrSc .................................................................. 17 Chapter 2: The Military Balance in the Black Sea Prof. Rumen Kanchev, PhD, DrSc & Maj. Gen. (ret) Sabi Sabev, PhD .............. 39 Chapter 3: Russian Energy Projects in Bulgaria and the Risks for Central and Southeast Europe Eng. Hristo Kazandzhiev & Eng. Ivan Hinovski............................................... 61 Chapter 4: The Bulgarian Energy Sector: state of affairs, policies, and risks Eng. Ivan Hinovski ........................................................................................ 79 Chapter 5: Russian Еspionage in the Balkans Nikolay Krastev ............................................................................................. 91 Chapter 6: EU Internal Security: the stakes, the challenges, and the added value of Europol and Frontex Sofiya Petkova ............................................................................................ 107 Chapter 7: Coping with the Totalitarian Communist Past in Bulgaria: Problems and Achievements Hristo Hristov & Prof. Evelina Kelbecheva, PhD ........................................... 141 Appendix 1: Strategic Partnership Framework between the United States of America and the Republic of Bulgaria, 26.11.2019 ................................................ 144 6 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 Appendix 2: Declaration of the Heads of State and Government participating in the NATO Summit, London, 3–4 December 2019 ............................................................. 147 The Authors in the Publication ................................................................................... 151 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 155 Foreword 7 FOREWORD by Tsvetan Tsvetanov, President of the EASC Management Board In 2019 particular regional and global trends became increasingly tangible, calling for strengthening the Euro-Atlantic link and its role in the regional and global arena, as well as for a sensible and strategically oriented behavior by Bulgaria internationally. Today we witness the US-Russia-China strategic rivalry unfold be- fore our eyes – particularly visible through the complex node of ambitious gas-transport, infrastructure, and economic projects across Southeast and South Europe. The battle is, on the one hand, for gaining geoeconomic leverage – the “17+1” Initiative and Turk Stream project being a good case in point. On the other hand, we see a growing geopolitical competi- tion, most notably in the Black Sea, turning the region into a central lo- cus of the dichotomy between the Western understanding of global order and international law and Russian hard power projection through military dominance. The Three Seas Initiative with its ambition to enhance digital, transport, and energy connectivity is an effective instrument for counter- acting Russian and Chinese influence in the region of the three seas. It has the potential to substantially increase the competitiveness and security of its member states, including by attaining actual energy difersification. Against the background of this dynamic security environment, de- pendence on Russian gas supplies to Southeast and Central Europe re- mains a constant. Russia cleverly blocks supply projects to the region from 8 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 the South and Southeast, while successfully maintaining its economic and hence political influence. The implementation of Turk Stream reinforces significantly this trend posing hard-to-remove obstacles to actual diversi- fication of natural gas sources for the region. In these settings, the Bulgarian energy sector remains part of the re- gional trend of a growing reliance on the Russian Federation. Although re- formed and partly liberalized, the country’s energy sector is still charged with strong dependences that generate enormous corruption potential, whereby those interests occasionally spill over to the political arena as has surfaced in a number of decisions over the years regarding the develop- ment of the sector. The Belene Nuclear Power Plant and the Balkan Gas Hub may prove a threat to Bulgaria’s ambitions for a regional leader on the energy map of Southeast Europe if both projects fail to fully comply with the requirements of EU legislation. The key importance of the transport and energy corridors and proj- ects that cross the territory of Bulgaria and the region of South East Eu- rope, turn out to be a motive for the enhanced activity of the Russian intelligence. In the attempt to counteract the drawing force of the EU and NATO, Russia increasingly uses the toolkit of espionage and disinforma- tion campaigns to destabilize the Western Balkan countries and instill hes- itation among their societies and political elites in their strife to become part of the Euro-Atlantic family. In the area of EU internal security we see challenges become increas- ingly cross-border, which requires a common European response. Agen- cies like Europol and Frontex are playing a key role in this regard and unless the EU and Member States provide them with the resources and instruments needed to assist national authorities in addressing those chal- lenges, the political and geostrategic stakes may prove too high and do irreparable harm to the legitimacy of the common European project as a political endeavor. In 2019 we have marked an extremely important anniversary: thirty years of Bulgarian democracy. From the present-day perspective, in order to understand the underlying reasons for both successful and unsuccess- ful reforms, or the failure to pursue any, as well as to comprehend and rationalize the structural causes of a number of challenges we face today, Foreword 9 it is worth looking back at history. And not just at any historic period but specifically at the period of the communist regime (1944-1989), as such a retrospective in 2019 will enable us to contextually reflect upon and evaluate what has been accomplished thirty years later, as well as to outline our plans and ambitions for the future. It is namely that period of our history that hides the dangers of interference by foreign interests in domestic matter, of distorted interpretations of freedom, the rule of law, national values and interests. Since the collapse of the totalitarian system many of its elements have been resuscitated to new life, influencing the path of development of democratic Bulgaria. The Annual Report of the Euro-Atlantic Security Center had the dif- ficult task not only to analyze the developments in Bulgaria and the world in 2019 but also to identify trends and patterns going beyond this time- frame, thus providing a cognitive toolkit for critical analysis of events at the national, regional, European, and global levels in 2020 and beyond. It has been a genuine pleasure for the EASC team and experts to prepare this set of analyses and bring it to your attention! Respectfully, Tsvetan Tsvetanov * Tsvetan Tsvetanov is a former Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Bulgaria (2009–2013), a longtime Member of the Bulgarian National As- sembly, as well as Floor Leader of the Parliamentary Majority and Chairman of the In- ternal Security and Public Order Standing Committee (2014–2019). In September 2019, Mr. Tsvetanov established the Euro-Atlantic Security Center (EASC) and was elected President of the EASC Management Board. 10 BULGARIA AND THE WORLD 2019 The Global Security Environment and Its Dynamics in 2019 11 CHAPTER ONE THE GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT AND ITS DYNAMICS IN 2019 Prof. Rumen Kanchev, PhD, DrSc “Since 2010 we have seen the return of Great Power competition. To varying degrees, Russia and China have made clear they seek to substantially revise the post-Cold War international order and norms of behavior” Nuclear Posture Review, 2018 Abstract: This chapter examines the structure and dynamics of the global political scene after the post-Cold War period. It analyzes the main geopolitical interests and goals of the three global powers of today, the USA, China and the Russian Federation, along with the dynamics of their strategic rivalry. It further studies the abstract structure of global security architecture under the initial formation of a tripolar model of international relations, outlining its parameters,
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