Conflict Over Kalabagh Tion and Its Influence Is Sometimes Re Sented by Smaller Members of the Feder Political Controversy Surrounds a Hydroelectric Dam Ation

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PAKISTAN a dam is constructed upstream at Kalabagh. •| Punjab is Pakistan's largest pro vince with 56% of the country's popula Conflict over Kalabagh tion and its influence is sometimes re sented by smaller members of the feder Political controversy surrounds a hydroelectric dam ation. Officials and' foreign engineers By Husain Haqqani in Islamabad familiar with the 'scheme say neither criticism has much justification. Statis The Pakistan Government is pressing Wali Khan, and the Pakistan National tics quoted by the dam's opponents on ahead with the construction of a Party (PNP). led by Ghaus Bukhsh the extent of flooding expected fromthe major dam on the Indus river, despite Bizenjo, have become especially vocal project, as well as the likely impact on threats from some opposition politi in their opposition to the dam. The downward flow of water, have both cians to blow up the dam if it is built. NDP and the PNP have recently merged been proven wrong. But opposition to The US$4 billion Kalabagh dam pro with two other leftist parties to form a the scheme persists and is likely to in ject, in northern Punjab, has fallen be new grouping known as the Awami Na crease as rcgionalist parties vie with hind schedule due to the highly political tional Party and have called for provin each other in a bid to establish their ere1 controversy regarding its usefulness. cial autonomy (Review. 7 Aug.) which dentials as their respective province's Officialssay it is vital to the country's in turn will intensify the case against leaders. economy as it would more than double Kalabagh. Other opposition leaders, the power-generationcapacity bv 1993, such as Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan In Sindh, the dam's opponents include besides enhancing irrigation facilities in People's Party, have opposed the dam the Jiey Sindh (Long Live Sindh) Punjab. Sindh and North-West Frontier on the grounds of its divisiveness and movement and the Sindh. Baluch, Province (NWFP). But leftwing region are recommending consideration of al Pushtoon Front, the Sindh Agriculture al leaders from Sindh and NWFP op ternative sites on the Indus. ! Chamber and the Partners' Committee. pose the scheme, claiming it as an at- During the past 1(1 years some Rs 860 Although vociferously argued by oppo lempt by Punjabi vested interests to ex million (US$51 million) have: been sition politicians. Sindh's case on pand their domination at the cost of the spent on studies and preliminary work Kalabagh has not become an emotional two smaller provinces. on the dam which, if completed as plan issue. Sindhi Prime Minister Mnham-i The issue has become an emotive ned by 1991, would add 3,600 mW of one since last November, when opposi electricity to Pakistan's current power- tion to the dam was first articulated generation capacity of 2,400 rnW. after a scries of leaks by bureaucrats The controversy over Kalabagh about the feasibility and design of the stems from the areas of NWFP likely dam. It is now widely believed that the to be inundated by waters backed up controversy was engineered by officials behind the dam. Sindh, on the other trying to escape blame for delays in im hand, isconcerned about its future sup plementation of the project, which ply of water as the Indus is the pro started in 1975. vince's only major river. Sindhi leaders Two leftwinu parties, the National say their province will become depen Democratic Party (NDP), led by Abdul dent on Punjab for irrigation once

Drawn battle lines i i Bhutto and the ruling party plan simultaneous rallies Prime Minister Mohammad Khan lent and led to the first major clash be Junejo's Pakistan Muslim League tween police and the party since last (PML) and the opposition Pakistan December's ending of martial law. People's Party (PPP) led by Benazir Many observers saw the clash as an in Bhutto seem to be preparing them dication of the changed mood within selves for a round of political confron opposition ranks and consider it a pre tation. view of things to come. Both parties have announced pro The PML announced its program Bhutto held her first public meeting grammes for nationwide rallies and me for 14 August in June, declaring it upon returning from exile in April.The demonstrations of support on 14 Au "Muslim League Day" to commemo Minar site was chosen hy Bhutto in re • gust — Pakistan's Independence Day rate the party's contribution to Pakis sponse to government taunts over the — including plans for rival public meet tan's founding. The party had hoped to public's lack of enthusiasm for her call ings in Lahore at the same site. Unless demonstrate its strength, taking advan to observe 5 July, the anniversary of one of the parties withdraws or amends tage of public enthusiasm for the Inde President Zia-ul Haq's assumption of its plans, there could be clashes be pendence Day celebrations, but Bhutto power, as a day of protest. tween government and opposition sup refusedto concedethedayto the ruling PPP rallies on (hat day drew fewer porters throughout the country. party. people than expected, and Junejo's PPP workers appear to be getting Bhutto announced her own plans supporters used it as an example of a restless as their leader's strategy of for public meetings and demonstra lack of interest in Bhutto's campaign. peacefully forcing mid-term elections tions on Independence Day as part of Junejo said: "When Benazir (Bhutto) later this year seems to have failed so her compaign for early elections. The first arrived at the Minar, people went far. On 25 July a PPP procession in La maineventfor the dayisto bea massive along to see and hear what she had lo hore, marking the return from exile of rally at Minar-e-Pakistan —a large na offer. Now that she has been back for' one of Bhutto's lieutenants, turned vio tional memorial in Lahore, where four months and has offered no positive j

to* U AUGUST tans .FAR EASTERN FC0WIMIC «IW* ' tm at mad Khan Junejo is unlikely to allow a The NDP and the PNP have avoided decision in favour of the project if its on the dam site it construction plans going into technical details and have were not abandoned si prol-j technical features conflict with his home built their case on purely political province's larger interests. The Kalabagh issue has provided a i'opula(-| grounds. •Punjab has made Kalabagh a focal point lor Pushtoon nationalism at ilies tm\ In the NWFP, however, the situation matter of prestige," NDP president is quite different. Although cham a time when the NWFP is considered . iederj- Wali Khan said, adding: "In our view vulnerable to Soviet-backed subver .t'ineefil pioned by NDPand PNP,opposition to the dam would mean the economic sion. The province has been the target neither; Kalabagh isalsofound amongmembers doom of the Pushtoons, and in case our of several terrorist bombings during the Statisff of the provincial government as well as views are ignored we will certainly blast past six months. nts ori religious partieswhich are normally less the dam." Wali Khan's father, Ghaffar Although the bombings have abated mthi vocal on provincial issues. The dam is to Khan — the elder statesman of Push- somewhat recently, lor some time peo ;..lCt be constructed right across the pro toon nationalism, also known as the ple were afraid togoout to public places both vince's border with Punjab and will re Frontier Gandhi because of his close in Peshawar alter several deaths in a nion • sult in the inundation of ,59 villages over tics to Mahatma Gandhi — announced series of explosions hilling the local 64,000 acres in the province's southern ) io in| plans for a non-violent Pushtoon match Pakistan International Airlines office, a districts. Some 22,000 Push- ie with movie theatre anil the Peshawar toons will have to be evacua i. ircrej; bazaar. In June, the Karachi-bound cilice j ted and resettled. A much larger number of Punjabi vil FfTTpiEMffi Khyber Mail train carrying 290 passen gers was derailed by an anti-tank mine lages is likely to be affect placedon the trackssouth of the provin includi ed. cial capital, killingthree people. Sindh) Critics say the damage to Most Punjabis support the construc it i the NWFP will be greater tion of the dam. though some have call ulture than officials admit and" claim ed for design changes to accommodate litteeii that the dam would threaten critics' demands. "We do not want this oppor the historic city of Nowshera, to be a provincial issue." explained Slier e oi which has a large population. Afgan Niazi, the MPwho represents the >iiona| One critic argued: "It is not Kalabagh area, adding: "Building the :)ham- only a question of immediate dam is in the national interest and any flooding of some Pushtoon objections on its technical features areas. There is also a long- should be handled by engineers and ex term danger. The area perts from all provinces." around Kalabagh comprises Unfortunately the Pushtoon leaders Sandstone and shale, and the are exploiting the issue for political pur earth-filled dam will be over poses and they seem bent upon under laid with porous alluvium. It mining an important scheme ioi na is also close to the salt range. tional development lot shoit-tcim Both sandstone and salt are gains. At present, workon the project is prone to erosion and the dam proceeding slowly. Inn officials s.is it won't last, causing major dis will be speeded up once the political aster all around." Hi . t .•.(.<*!' t.y fc.ly I J.., controversy is contained. fj

political programme, fewer people are owners and local politicians in rural it would he risking military interven interested in attending her rallies and Pakistan who have been brought into tion and possibly a return to martial demonstrations." ,,; the. PML fold with promises of influ law. i PPP sources said Bhutto expected ence and power. However, a govern Supporters of confrontation within to dispel doubts about her continuing ment decision to enforce the PML's the PPP gainedan upper bund with the popularity and support by holding legal right — derived from a district return from exile of party vice-presi anothermassive rally at the Minar site, magistrate's permit — to hold the La dent Sheikh Muhammad Kashid, the but before her announcement, the hore meeting, with police support, only cabinet colleague of Bhutto's late PML had already declared its intention could serve as a provocation for PPP father still holding an important party Io hold a meeting there. At the same militancy. position. Kasliid is considered leader of lime, the Punjab branch of the party Bhutto is looking for ways to revive the PPP's leftwing, and his supporters applied for permission to use the interest in her demand for mid-term arranged a big reception for him on his »tinf grounds of Lahore's district magistrate. elections and is expected to launch a return from London alter three years in .The ,j | Bhutto refuses to recognise the civil-djsobedieiice movement later this exile. The reception procession tore i in re* PML's claim to themeeting siteandhas year for this purpose. Although she re down Junejo's portraits displayed in \ {the been making defiant statements on the mains opposed to violence, some of her downtown Lahore and stoned police r call lubject. "The PPP will meet at the supporters insist it will be necessary to men who responded with tear gas and v.ry Minar come what may," she told,the force Zia to accept her demands or con batons. A public bus was also burned. I <>n of| press, adding: "We are a party ot vince Junejo to negotiate with her. The PPP blamed the police for the struggling people and we will not back "Bhutto's greatest asset is her mar incident, while Punjab Local Govern I down," ewer tyr image, which is losing appeal as ment Minister Pervau Llahi described i ejo'l i | PML leaders say Bhutto does not time passes," a Western diplomat, the incident as "the PPP's rehearsal for !,• of i Seriously intend to "hold a meeting at stationed in Islamabad, said adding: their planned showdown." Junejo has i 'tiign the Minar but is using the issue to force "A little violent confrontation resulting instructed PML leaders lodemonstrale U.uttoj a showdown with the government. If in a government crackdown could re the party's strength on 14 August so le went the PML gives up its planned rally it furbish the martyr image in the eves of that the party rather than the adminis bad to i»puld appear to be the weaker party, Ihejparly faithful." If the Junejo gov trative machinery bears the brunt of for susceptible to opposition pressure.. ernment fails to crack down on Ilie op facingthe opposition's newstrategy• iivi This would not go down wellwith land. position, even alter it turns to violence, — Husain Haqqani