Bangladesh on the Democratic Path Lisa Curtis and Maneeza Hossain
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BACKGROUNDER No. 2870 | DECEMBER 20, 2013 Combating Islamism in South Asia: Keeping Bangladesh on the Democratic Path Lisa Curtis and Maneeza Hossain Abstract Bangladesh has experienced significant political tumult in the past Key Points year and there is concern that as the national election (scheduled for January 5, 2014) approaches, street violence will escalate, jeopardiz- n Bangladesh is heading toward ing the country’s nascent democratic system. While the threat from ter- a flawed election on January 5, rorism had diminished to some extent under the government of Prime 2014, that will lack the participa- tion of the major opposition party Minister Sheikh Hasina, the recent execution of a leading Islamist poli- and its allies, and which is likely to tician and the sentencing to death of other opposition leaders accused be seriously marred by violence. of war crimes during Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971 have n There is growing concern that unleashed furor among Islamists. If Bangladeshi leaders undermine escalating street violence in Ban- the democratic process, the Islamist agenda, and extremist ideologies gladesh could result in the kind of in general, would likely find greater appeal among the Bangladesh- political destabilization that led to is. The U.S. has a strong interest in ensuring that Bangladesh—the an army takeover in 2007. fourth-largest Muslim-majority country in the world—remains stable n A non-inclusive election would and on a path of democratic reform and economic development. likely strengthen the appeal of the Islamist agenda among angladesh has experienced significant political tumult in the Bangladeshis and further Bpast year and there is concern that as the parliamentary elec- weaken the country’s democratic tion (scheduled for January 5, 2014) approaches, street violence will foundations. escalate, jeopardizing the country’s nascent democratic system. n The United States has a strong While the threat from terrorism had diminished to some extent interest in ensuring that Ban- under the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the recent gladesh—the fourth-largest execution of an Islamist politician and the sentencing to death of Muslim-majority country in the world—remains stable and on a other opposition leaders accused of war crimes during Bangladesh’s path of democratic reform and war of independence in 1971 have unleashed furor among Islamists. economic development. The war crimes verdicts led to violent protests earlier this year that n left over 150 dead. Following the December 12 execution of Islamist The U.S. should support the post- ponement of polls and the estab- lishment of an all-party govern- This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg2870 ment with a non-party technocrat Produced by the Asian Studies Center at the helm to conduct elections The Heritage Foundation in the next six months. 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2870 DECEMBER 20, 2013 leader Abdul Qader Mollah, rioting broke out, killing over 5 percent annually. Bangladesh is on a path to at least five Bangladeshis in a 24-hour period. The becoming a middle-income country within the next international community urged the Bangladeshi decade. Without political stability, however, Bangla- Prime Minister to stay Mollah’s execution, but to no desh will have difficulty maintaining its economic avail. momentum. The opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) While Bangladesh’s economic progress is com- and several smaller parties have said they will boy- mendable, serious challenges remain. Thirty per- cott the election if the government does not agree to cent of Bangladeshis live below the poverty line— install a neutral, non-party caretaker regime to con- including much of the workforce responsible for the duct elections. If the Hasina government and the BNP recent economic growth. The collapse of the Rana are unable to come to agreement on how the polls Plaza garment factory last April that killed over 1,100 should be conducted, there is a likelihood of political workers shows that attention to worker and build- destabilization, similar to what unfolded in 2006 and ing safety regulations and compliance have not kept 2007 when the military took the reins of power. pace with higher rates of economic growth. Bangla- The U.S. has a strong interest in ensuring that desh will risk facing more garment factory tragedies Bangladesh—the fourth-largest Muslim-majority until it works with international stakeholders and country in the world—remains stable and on a path makes a concerted effort to improve safety. of democratic reform and economic development. If Bangladeshi leaders undermine the democratic pro- Economic and Social Gains cess, the Islamist agenda, and extremist ideologies Bangladesh has made impressive gains in its eco- in general, would likely find greater appeal among nomic and social indicators in the past several years. the Bangladeshi people. Political chaos is often a Bangladesh is known for widespread famine that breeding ground for extremism, domestic and inter- swept the country in 1974, but today Bangladesh national. While the U.S. should not oppose the Inter- has the realistic and arguably imminent prospect national Crimes Tribunal II, it should insist that of achieving food self-sufficiency. Nationwide, more the court proceed in accordance with internation- girls are in school than in neighboring countries. al standards. Among other things, the U.S. should According to the Legatum Prosperity Index, Bangla- press the Hasina government to negotiate with the desh has surpassed India in terms of quality of life of BNP about holding elections, warning that a BNP the average person because of Bangladeshis’ longer boycott of the election would sacrifice the credibility life span, lower levels of undernourishment, lower of the polling process and provoke instability. rate of infant mortality, and better access to sanita- China is slowly building up ties with Bangladesh tion facilities.1 and competing with India for dominance in the Bangladesh has strengthened its economy over region. The U.S. should facilitate strong India–Ban- the past several years by gladesh ties, even as it strengthens its own bilateral engagement with Dhaka, to ensure that Bangladesh n Becoming a leading global exporter of ready- does not become unduly dependent on China and made garments, second only to China; more susceptible to Beijing’s political influence. For a country described by former U.S. Secretary n Attracting foreign direct investment in the tele- of State Henry Kissinger as an economic “basket communications sector, which has nearly 100 case,” Bangladesh has made considerable economic million cell phone subscribers; and and social progress in recent years. For instance, life expectancy has increased by 10 years, infant mortal- n Adding 3,870 megawatts of power to the national ity has declined by nearly two-thirds, female litera- grid through implementation of 55 projects dur- cy has doubled, and economic growth has averaged ing Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.2 1. “Bangladesh Overtakes India in Overall Prosperity,” The Daily Star, November 4, 2013, http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/bangladesh-overtakes-india-in-overall-prosperity/ (accessed December 9, 2013). 2. Sharier Khan, “Powered by AL,” The Daily Star, August 26, 2013, http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/powered-by-al/ (accessed December 9, 2013). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2870 DECEMBER 20, 2013 Microfinance run by the Grameen Bank, which Bangladesh is multi-fold, and permeates public life. has made small loans to nearly 9 million Bangla- As noted by Maneeza Hossain in 2007, a “politi- deshis—mostly women—since its establishment cian assuming a position of public service attempts in the early 1980s, has become one of Bangladesh’s to recover the money expended to win the election. greatest economic success stories. The founder of Stated differently, a political office is now a kind Grameen Bank, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, received of financial investment—one available only to the the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006. Much to the rest of wealthy—that is expected to produce considerable the world’s dismay, however, the Hasina government returns.”4 The World Bank cancellation of a $1.2 bil- has, over the past three years, sought to undermine lion loan for construction of the Padma Bridge last Yunus and the Grameen Bank. The Bangladeshi year due to corruption among Bangladeshi officials government forced Yunus to retire in 2011 on the involved in the project is a striking example of the grounds that he was beyond the legal retirement age. magnitude of the problem and how it undermines Yunus supporters say Hasina’s move was politically economic development. In a June 29, 2012, state- motivated by her desire to bar him from challenging ment, the World Bank said it had urged the Bangla- her in future elections. In 2007, when the country deshi authorities to investigate and prosecute indi- was under a state of emergency and Hasina herself viduals involved in the corruption scheme, but that was behind bars, Yunus attempted to form his own the Bangladeshi government had not responded ade- political party. quately to the request.5 During a 2012 visit to Bangladesh, former Sec- When the Awami League government came to retary of State Hillary Clinton met with Yunus and power in a sweeping victory in late 2008, its election called him a “tremendous model for the developing promises included the introduction of a new type of world.” Clinton urged the Bangladeshi government politics and a commitment to fight corruption. But not to hamper the internal operations of the bank. it has achieved little on either front.