The New Iranian Leadership: Ahmadinejad, Terrorism, Nuclear
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P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 THE NEW IRANIAN LEADERSHIP i P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 Praeger Security International Advisory Board Board Cochairs Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professor of Public and International Affairs, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia (U.S.A.) Paul Wilkinson, Professor of International Relations and Chairman of the Advisory Board, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews (U.K.) Members Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies (U.S.A.) Ther´ ese` Delpech, Director of Strategic Affairs, Atomic Energy Commission, and Senior Research Fellow, CERI (Foundation Nationale des Sciences Politiques), Paris (France) Sir Michael Howard, former Chichele Professor of the History of War and Regis Professor of Modern History, Oxford University, and Robert A. Lovett Professor of Military and Naval History, Yale University (U.K.) Lieutenant General Claudia J. Kennedy, USA (Ret.), former Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army (U.S.A.) Paul M. Kennedy, J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director, International Security Studies, Yale University (U.S.A.) Robert J. O’Neill, former Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls College, Oxford University (Australia) Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland (U.S.A.) Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International (U.S.A.) ii P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 THE NEW IRANIAN LEADERSHIP Ahmadinejad, Terrorism, Nuclear Ambition, and the Middle East YONAH ALEXANDER AND MILTON HOENIG PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL r Westport, Connecticut London iii P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Alexander, Yonah. The new Iranian leadership : Ahmadinejad, terrorism, nuclear ambition, and the Middle East / Yonah Alexander and Milton Hoenig. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978–0–275–99639–0 (alk. paper) 1. Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud. 2. Presidents—Iran—Biography. 3. Iran—Politics and government—1997– 4. Iran—Foreign relations—1997– 5. Nuclear weapons—Iran. 6. Iran—Foreign relations—Middle East. I. Hoenig, Milton M. II. Title. DS318.84.A36A44 2008 955.061092—dc22 2007039690 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available. Copyright C 2008 by Yonah Alexander and Milton Hoenig All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2007039690 ISBN-13: 978–0–275–99639–0 First published in 2008 Praeger Security International, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881 An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc. www.praeger.com Printed in the United States of America The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (Z39.48–1984). 10987654321 iv P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 Contents Preface vii Acknowledgments xiii 1. Historical Perspectives 1 2. Iran’s Government Structure 12 3. Iran’s Leadership Profiles 24 4. State-Sponsored Terrorism and Iran’s Role 47 5. Iran’s Terrorist Network: Hizballah and HAMAS 64 6. Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions 111 7. Iran’s Ballistic Missile, Chemical, and Biological Capabilities 176 Appendix I: Iran’s Policies and International Reaction 193 Appendix II: Nuclear Chronology 211 Acronyms 255 Notes 257 Selected Bibliography 311 Index 323 v P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 vi P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 Preface An old Persian proverb teaches us that “events are constantly unlike one another.” Indeed, historical patterns cannot be repeated because what has already happened in the past provides no assurances that tomorrow will bring similar or identical occurrences. Additionally, each epoch gives birth to its own leaders, policies, and actions in the struggle for power within and among nations. And yet, it is as- sumed that wise rulers can benefit from yesterday’s lessons, do what is prudent and accountable to confront immediate challenges, and understand that there are adverse consequences for crafting and implementing radical strategies when war and peace are concerned. Can the validity of this assumption be examined in light of the ancient and contemporary experiences of Iran, Shiite Islam’s most significant geopolitical and economic power in both the Middle East and throughout Islamdom? At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the published and unpublished record of this experience is documented in a vast outpouring of literature on Iran from both official and unofficial sources. Thousands of studies, reports, articles, and general works have been produced by scholars, reporters, and politicians focusing on various aspects of a broad panoply: Persian history originating in an- tiquity; the Islamic background, characterized by the unending theological conflict between the Shiites (partisans of Ali, Prophet Mohammed’s cousin and son-in- law) and the Sunnis (those who follow the tradition) that has lasted over 1,300 years; the Pahlavi dynasty personified by the rise and fall of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi; and the emergence of the new theocratic regime in Tehran under the Ayatollahs since 1979.1 What is of grave concern to the world community are Iran’s roles in interna- tional terrorism and its development of weapons of mass destruction, particularly vii P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 viii preface the regime’s expanding nuclear program. These challenges have been intensified with the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005. Since assuming office, the new Iranian leader has reversed the seemingly more moderate policies of his predecessors and projected himself onto the international scene with headline- grabbing statements and speeches regarding the State of Israel and Judaism, open defiance of UN Security Council resolutions directed at Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and antagonism toward the interests of the United States, the European Union, and other states in the Middle East, potentially leading to tragic consequences for all concerned. Ahmadinejad’s apparent vision of his country becoming the dominant power in the region, capable of expanding its terrorist-sponsored activities in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories is only one of the latest examples of Iran’s nearly three-decades-long record of the “wild card” in the international system. Perhaps the most disturbing dangers posed by contemporary Iran under Ahmadinejad are those relating to the safety, welfare, and rights of ordinary people in the Middle East; the stability of the state system in the region; the movement toward democracy; and perhaps even the survival of civilization itself. This book is not a comprehensive history of Persia-Iran from time immemo- rial. Rather it is an effort to provide a profile of the current leadership’s policies and actions against the background of its record since the fall of the Shah and the ensuing confrontation with the United States, the “great Satan,” as perceived by the Ayatollahs and most recently depicted by Ahmadinejad and the new Iranian rulers. The rationale for undertaking such a study seems self-evident in light of the complexity of the relationship between Shiite theology of apocalyptic visions that see universal chaos in preparation for the return of the Hidden Imam and nonreli- gious political decision-making such as the motivations for Iran’s security policies, including terrorism sponsorship and nuclear program development. After all, the Shia-Sunni and Persian-Arab tensions and conflicts only underscore one segment of the nature of the Iranian challenge to the entire international community. Better understanding of the extent of the religious, political, and military roles of Pres- ident Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as other individuals operating within the government structure, is an important ele- ment in crafting a coherent and realistic strategy in coping with Tehran’s dangers facing the Middle East and other regions. The book is divided into seven chapters, dealing with aspects of Iran’s history, governmental structure, leadership profiles, state-sponsored terrorism, terrorist networks (focusing on Hizballah and Hamas), nuclear ambitions, and military capabilities (ballistic missiles: chemical, and biological). Two appendices are provided. The first includes the record of Iran’s leadership policy pronouncements and the international reactions to the nuclear crisis. The second appendix consists of a nuclear chronology from August 2002 to July 2007. A selected bibliography, as a reference for further study and research, as well as an index are incorporated in the volume. P1: RTJ GGBD169-FM C9639/Alexander Top Margin: 5/8in Gutter Margin: 3/4in November 17, 2007 22:26 preface ix Since the manuscript was submitted to the publisher in late summer 2007,