داﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎن اﺳــــــــــﻼﻣﯽ ﺟﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺖ دﮐﺮهﻨﯽ ، اوﺑﻮﻟﮕﻮﻟﻮ او ﻣﺎﻟﺪارﯼ وزارت ﺟﻤﻬﻮرﯼ اﺳــــــــــــﻼﻣﯽ اﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎن وزارت زراﻋــﺖ ،ﺁﺑﻴـﺎرﯼ و ﻣﺎﻟـــــﺪارﯼ Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock AGRICULTURE PROSPECTS REPORT Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock General Department of Policy and Planning Statistics and Marketing Information Office Kabul, 26 May 2010 Abbreviations APR Agriculture Prospects Report DAP Diammonium Phosphate EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FMD Foot and Mouth Disease MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock PPR peste des petits ruminants USDA United States Department of Agriculture USGS United States Geological Survey WFP World Food Program Acknowledgement Main sources of updated data in this report are over 4,000 farmers, provincial agricultural offices of 34 provinces, and the technical departments of MAIL. Many thanks are due to farmers, projects, agencies and individuals for their help. MAIL appreciates contributions made by them in providing real time information and data. Thanks are also due to many others who contributed towards field work and/or helped with the writing of this report. Cover photo: Improved Irrigated Wheat in Laghman Province District, Qarghaee. Photo by: Tahir Yadgari, MAIL Counterpart staff “Strengthening Agricultural Economics, Market Information and Statistics Services” (GCP/AFG/063/EC) The EU-funded project mentioned above provided technical guidance and financial support for the production of this report. Price bulletins and other reports produced by the project are available at: http://www.mail.gov.af/m/english/English.htm http://www.fao.org/world/afghanistan/agteo_en.htm Afghanistan Cereal Production (2000-2010) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Production2,000 ('000 tonnes) 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YEAR 2007 Wheat 2008 Milled Rice 2009 2010 Maize Barley het2flne2in2PHIH feheurrex tetex u xh eure fevur peef es2 v ewexqex feqrvex ext2ri x sex fehqrs eex uese u xe fewex veqrwex uef v eheu xexqere rse vyqe qry hes2u xhs eue qrexs ury qex peer ef v eusue vegend rsvwexh uexhere urplus2SHDHHH2tonnes2or2more xswy urplus2from2PSDHHH2to2SHDHHH2tonnes urplus2up2to2PSDHHH2tonnes hefiit2up2to2PSDHHH2tonnes hefiit2from2PSDHHH2to2SHDHHH2tonnes hefiit2SHDHHH2tonnes2or2more CONTENTS Map 1: Afghanistan Cereal Production (2000-2010) Map 2: Wheat Balance by Province in 2010 (Preliminary estimates) 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................1 2. WEATHER AND CROP CONDITION.........................................................................2 A. WEATHER DATA .............................................................................................................2 B. GROUND TRUTH DATA....................................................................................................2 3. CEREAL AREA, PRODUCTION, REQUIREMENT AND DEFICIT......................2 4. ADVERSE FACTORS.....................................................................................................4 5. PRICE OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES........................................................5 6. REMARKS AND CAVEAT ............................................................................................6 Tables 1: Forecasted Area and Production of different Cereals in 2010 2. Percent changes in the 2010 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2009 3: Cereal production in Afghanistan (2003-2010) (‘000 tonnes) 4: The 2010 Cereal Balance Sheet (‘000 tonnes) 5: Consumer Price Index in April 2010 Annex 1 Rainfall amount (mm) in the current season compared to the Long-Term Average (LTA) 2 Wheat seed produced by the FAO seed project (2003-2009) 3 Area and Production of wheat in 2010 by province (preliminary estimates) 4 Wheat Balance in 2010 by province (preliminary estimates) 5 Production and requirements of various cereals in 2010 6a Adverse conditions of crops 6b Adverse conditions of livestock 6c District codes used in Annex 6a and Annex 6b 7 Progress under plant protection 8 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in 21-30 April of 2010 compared to average 9. Agricultural prices Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock General Department of Policy and Planning Statistics and Marketing Information Office Agriculture Prospects Report (APR) 1. Introduction Crop assessment missions to 34 provinces were commissioned by MAIL in April and May. MAIL at Kabul fielded crop assessment missions to the following 24 provinces: • North Faryab, Juzjan, Sar-i-Pul, Balkh, Samangan (5 provinces) • North-East Bughlan, Kunduz, Takhar, and Badakhshan (4 provinces) • West Herat and Badghis (2 provinces) • West Central Bamyan (1 province) • Central Kabul, Parwan, Panjsher, Kapisa, Logar and Wardak (6 provinces) • South Paktya and Khost (2 provinces) • East Nangarhar, Laghman, and Kunarha (3 provinces) • South-West Daikunde (1 province) In addition, with the help of Provincial Offices of MAIL (DAIL) and Regional Field Assistants (RFA) of FAO posted in Kunduz, Herat, Kandahar and Jalalabad, MAIL undertook crop assessment in the following, remaining 10 provinces also: • West Farah (1 province; RFA Herat) • West Central Ghor (1 province; RFA Herat) • South Paktika and Ghazni (2 provinces; RFA Kandahar) • East Nuristan (1 provinces; RFA Nangharhar) • South-West Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, Nimroz and Uruzgan (5 provinces; RFA Kandahar) This report provides preliminary estimates of the 2010 cereal crop outputs and cereal surplus/deficit, based mainly on above-mentioned missions’ findings. The MAIL and DAIL missions held discussions with the provincial and district staff. They collected provincial level information and data on crop area/production, livestock condition and adverse factors (e.g. drought, floods, avalanche, frost, pests, diseases, etc.). The missions interviewed over 4,000 farmers across 34 provinces. The 34 MAIL/DAIL assessment missions submitted semi-processed reports by the third week of May. These reports were quickly processed at MAIL for analysis, interpretation and report writing. This APR is based on (i) updated assessment reports collected from DAIL, (ii) the results of the farmers’ survey, (iii) historical data sets and (iv) information and data from other sources. As the primary aim of the assessment is to produce consistent official data, emphasis is laid more on the use of relative data reported by DAIL, farmers and others. For example, for validation and consistency checks, missions’ data were compared with the benchmark crop data of 2003 and 2009, and with other historical data sets and the latest rainfall amount/pattern and satellite maps. Technical departments of Page 1 MAIL in Kabul and in the provinces provide a wealth of information on current crop and livestock situation. Information and data provided by FAO projects, FAO area offices and units, USGS Agro- met project, FEWS NET, WFP, and FAO missions were also important sources of information for this APR. 2. Weather and crop condition a. Weather data All areas of the country with the exception of some parts of the eastern and south-western regions experienced good amount of rainfall in November 2009. The rainfall amount in December 2009 was also above normal in all but some parts of the eastern and central regions. The amount and distribution of rainfall in January 2010 was not enough for optimal growth and development of crops and pasture. However, all parts of the country experienced very good amount and distribution of rainfall in February 2010. Rainfall amounts in March and April 2010 were also satisfactory in the main crop growing areas. (Annex 1) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 21st-30th April is presented in Annex 7. The map confirms that, for most parts of the country, there is above average density and greenness of the plant and pasture canopy in end-April 2010. Reports from the field also suggest that the weather condition in May is generally very favorable to the standing crops. b. Ground truth data Towards the end of January, overall condition of the winter crops was not so good. However, from the first week of February, weather condition in most parts of the country was highly satisfactory for planting, growth and development of the winter cereal crops. The weather condition in that period benefited spring planting of crops and pasture also. Thanks to the weather conditions in February, majority of the intended area for irrigated winter wheat and barley was planted. The planting of rainfed wheat also progressed very well and the winter crops revived in all parts of the country dramatically. The results of the provincial reports/feedback and farmers’ interviews suggest that a reasonably good cereal harvest will be reaped this year. Both irrigated and rainfed crops are in good conditions so far. The factors that contributed towards reasonably good cereal production prospects in 2010 are: (i) satisfactory rainfall pattern, especially in the beginning and the later part of the season (ii) increased use of improved seeds1 and chemical fertilizers (iii) effective and timely control of pests and diseases 3. Cereal Area, Production, Requirement and Deficit The average annual cereal production of Afghanistan in the last 5 years (2005 to 2009) was 5.2 million tons. Overall cereal production in 2010 is estimated to be 5.7 million tons, which is 10% below the last year’s level