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Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2018-40

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Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2018-40 Identify Require -ments Provide Satisfy IGCEP Plan Objectives LOLP Cater Growth Power System Planning National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) February 2019 Table of Contents List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... v List of Charts ...................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vii Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... viii Useful Links of Stakeholder Entities ............................................................................... xii Foreword ............................................................................................................................. 1 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ 2 1. Power System Planning – Gateway to NTDC ........................................................ 3 2. Setting the Perspective ........................................................................................... 6 2.1. Generation Planning – A Subset of Power System Planning ..................................... 6 2.2. Preamble ................................................................................................................... 7 2.3. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 7 2.4. Objectives of the IGCEP ............................................................................................ 8 2.5. Scope and Planning Horizon ..................................................................................... 9 2.6. Nature of the IGCEP .................................................................................................. 9 2.7. Rationale for Preparation of the IGCEP ..................................................................... 9 2.8. Report Structure ...................................................................................................... 10 2.9. IGCEP Development Team ..................................................................................... 11 3. Power System of Pakistan: Existing Scenario .................................................... 12 3.1. Power Sector and Country’s Economy .................................................................... 12 3.2. Power Market Statistics ........................................................................................... 13 3.3. Existing Power System ............................................................................................ 15 4. Methodology Customized for the IGCEP ............................................................. 18 4.1 Regulatory Compliance ........................................................................................... 18 4.2 Data Currency Log .................................................................................................. 18 4.3 Data Collection Process .......................................................................................... 19 4.3.1 IGCEP Data Sources and Associated Data Types .................................................. 19 4.4 Economic and Financial Parameters ....................................................................... 20 4.5 IGCEP Process Map ............................................................................................... 21 4.6 Different Criteria and Other Important Considerations for the IGCEP ...................... 21 4.6.1 Planning Timeframe ................................................................................................ 21 4.6.2 Economic Parameters ............................................................................................. 21 4.6.3 Generation System Reliability ................................................................................. 21 4.6.4 Hydrological Risk .................................................................................................... 22 4.6.5 Renewable Energy (RE) Generation ....................................................................... 22 ii 4.6.6 Spinning Reserve .................................................................................................... 22 4.6.7 Scheduled Maintenance of the Generation Projects ................................................ 22 4.6.8 System Load Characteristics ................................................................................... 22 4.7 Strategy for Feedback ............................................................................................. 23 5 Long-term Energy and Demand Forecast ............................................................ 24 5.1. Forecasting Methodology ........................................................................................ 24 5.2. Input Data ................................................................................................................ 25 5.3. Preparation of Demand Forecast ............................................................................. 25 5.4. Demand Forecast Numbers ..................................................................................... 27 6. Inside the IGCEP – the Plan .................................................................................. 31 6.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 31 6.2. Strategic Considerations ......................................................................................... 31 6.3. Approach and Methodology ..................................................................................... 31 6.4. Planning Basis ......................................................................................................... 31 6.5. Assumption Set ....................................................................................................... 32 6.6. Existing Units ........................................................................................................... 34 6.7. Retirement of Existing Plants ................................................................................... 34 6.8. Committed Generating Units ................................................................................... 38 6.8.1. Public Sector Committed Projects ........................................................................... 38 6.8.2. Private Sector Committed Projects .......................................................................... 38 6.9. New Generation Options ......................................................................................... 41 6.10. Hydro Projects and Screening ................................................................................. 41 6.11. New Thermal Options .............................................................................................. 43 6.12. Other Generation Options........................................................................................ 45 6.13. Development of the Base Case ............................................................................... 45 6.14. Reliability Levels and System Expansion Costs ....................................................... 45 6.15 Brief Info on Relevant Application Software Tools ................................................... 46 6.16. Limitations of the Modelling Tool - WASP ................................................................ 47 6.17. Do-ables for the Future Generation Plans ............................................................... 48 7. IGCEP Study Outcome .......................................................................................... 49 7.1. Future Demand and Capacity Additions .................................................................. 49 7.2. Annual Capacity Factors ......................................................................................... 67 7.3. Annual Energy Generation ...................................................................................... 71 7.4. Year-wise Discounted and Un-Discounted Prices .................................................... 74 7.5. Salient Features of the IGCEP ................................................................................ 76 8. The Way Forward................................................................................................... 87 A n n e x u r e s .................................................................................................. 90 iii Annexure A – Load Forecast ............................................................................................ 91 Annexure A-1: Projected GDP Growth by Sector (Country) – Low ...................................... 91 Annexure A-2: Projected GDP Growth by Sector (Country) – Normal ................................. 92 Annexure A-3: Projected GDP Growth by Sector (Country) - High ...................................... 93 Annexure A-4: GDP (Factor Cost) Constant 2005-06, Consumer Price Index ..................... 94 Annexure A-5: Nominal Category-Wise Average Tariff of NTDC and KE System ................ 96 Annexure A-6: Real Price of Average Tariff of NTDC and KE, Base year 2005-06 .............. 98 Annexure A-7: Country (Real Price) Weighted
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